Report Overview - Report title: [Galaxy Research] Investigation Report on Cotton Planting and Inventory in Northern Xinjiang (II) [2] - Report date: June 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [7] Research Background - The cotton planting area will continue to increase in the 2025/26 season, and the report aims to understand the change in Xinjiang's cotton output [3] - Xinjiang's spinning capacity is approaching 30 million spindles and still expanding, and the report wants to know the operation of textile enterprises under the deteriorating international trade environment [3] - With the accelerating出库 speed of Xinjiang cotton, the report intends to find out the real inventory situation due to concerns about tight supply during the off - season before new cotton is on the market [3] Research Route - Urumqi - Wujiaqu - Shihezi - Kuitun - Jinghe [4] Research Findings Spinning Enterprise D - Enterprise situation: It has a capacity of about 100,000 spindles, two processing workshops (self - operated and contract - processing), 30 - 50 employees, mainly produces pure - cotton yarn C32S and C40S, and the processing fee is 4000 - 5000 yuan/ton with different varieties having different fees [6] - Startup situation: Its textile machines in Xinjiang are mostly running, while its inland spinning mills operate during off - peak hours at night as many inland spinning machines are shut down [8] - Inventory: Since it mainly does contract - processing, its cotton and yarn inventories are small [9] - Order situation: Orders are average, and the high impurity in cotton affects yarn quality [9] - Market outlook: The downstream market is average, cotton prices may have small fluctuations. The enthusiasm of ginning factories in Northern Xinjiang to lease factories is low, and some have the idea of selling off, showing less confidence than in previous years [9] Warehouse E - Enterprise situation: It has a storage capacity of about 150,000 tons [10] - Cotton inventory: The incoming volume this year accounts for about 50% of the total capacity. The peak outgoing volume can reach 2000 tons/day, with peak periods after the Spring Festival and in April. The outgoing speed has slowed down recently, and the remaining inventory is small, with most goods owned by large enterprises and little by private enterprises [10] Warehouse F - Enterprise and inventory situation: It has a small storage capacity of 40,000 - 50,000 tons, and the remaining cotton inventory is low. The outgoing speed has slowed down recently. The cotton outgoing progress this year is slightly faster than last year, with 20+ trucks per day during the peak last year and 3 - 4 trucks per day recently [11] Warehouse G - Enterprise and inventory situation: It is a large warehouse with a capacity of 400,000 - 500,000 tons. The incoming volume this year is slightly less, about 300,000 - 350,000 tons. It still has some inventory, and the outgoing speed has slowed down recently after being fast after the Spring Festival and maintaining a basic volume in March and April [12] - Other: The new cotton is growing well, and the output in the new season may not change much compared to this season. Some ginning factories in Northern Xinjiang plan to lease or sell off, and the willingness of enterprises to lease factories is low this year [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term oil price is mainly affected by geopolitical situations, with high uncertainty and expected to be highly volatile. The macro - risk is difficult to resolve due to the ongoing Sino - US trade negotiations and potential inflation pressure in the US. [3] - For asphalt, the cost side remains high, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. The short - term price is expected to be supported by the oil price, but the asphalt - crude oil crack spread continues to decline. [7] - The domestic liquefied gas market is under pressure during the summer off - season, but the sharp rise in oil prices provides strong support for the PG price. [9] - High - sulfur fuel oil has support from geopolitics and peak - season power generation demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a recovering supply and weak downstream demand. [12] - The natural gas price in the US is expected to gradually rise due to increased demand, and the European natural gas price has soared due to geopolitical tensions. [14] - For PX, the supply increases significantly in June, and the profit is compressed. The supply is expected to decrease in early July due to maintenance plans. [16] - PTA's supply - demand margin is expected to weaken in July, with the downstream in the seasonal consumption off - season. [17] - Ethylene glycol maintains a tight - balance pattern, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow in June. [19] - Short - fiber processing fees are expected to be strongly supported in June, with stable downstream start - up. [21] - For bottle - grade polyester chips, the production enterprises' losses are expanding, and some enterprises may stop production later. [23] - The supply of styrene is expected to increase slightly, and the medium - term supply - demand margin is expected to weaken, but the short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to low inventory. [24] - The supply - demand of polyolefins is expected to be weak, and short - term observation is recommended, with a mid - term idea of shorting on rebounds. [28] - PVC has a long - term supply - surplus pattern, and short - term observation is recommended, while maintaining a short - on - rebound idea. Caustic soda's 09 contract is expected to be weak, with a mid - term bearish view. [32] - For soda ash, the supply - surplus pattern is intensifying, and interval operation with a short - bias is recommended. [34] - Glass is expected to have a weak price in the short - term, and interval operation with a short - bias is recommended, paying attention to cost reduction and plant cold - repair. [36] - The log spot market still faces challenges in the long - term, and short - term observation is recommended, paying attention to 9 - 11 reverse spreads. [39] - The prices of corrugated paper and box - board paper are expected to continue to decline, with weak market transactions. [40] - The double - offset paper market shows a weak supply - demand pattern, and the price maintains a low - level fluctuation. [42] - For pulp, the short - term observation of the SP 09 contract is recommended, paying attention to the support at the Monday low. [44] - For natural rubber, hold short positions in the RU 09 and NR 08 contracts, and hold relevant spreads. [47] - For butadiene rubber, observe the BR 08 contract, paying attention to the pressure at the Monday high, and hold relevant spreads. [49] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2507 contract settled at $71.77, down $1.21/barrel (- 1.66%); Brent2508 contract settled at $73.23, down $1.00/barrel (- 1.35%); SC main contract 2508 rose to 529.2 yuan/barrel and then fell to 523 yuan/barrel at night. The Brent main - second - line spread was $1.39/barrel [1] - **Related News**: Iran expressed willingness to return to negotiations and hope for a cease - fire, but the US signaled a possible entry into the Middle - East battlefield, increasing geopolitical risks. OPEC lowered the forecast of non - OPEC+ oil supply growth in 2026 [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Brent's intraday oscillation range is expected to be $72 - 77/barrel. Consider gasoline and diesel crack spreads weakening, and observe options [4] Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3605 points at night (- 1.10%), BU2512 closed at 3440 points at night (- 1.29%). Spot prices varied by region [5] - **Related News**: In different regions, asphalt prices showed different trends due to factors such as cost, supply, and weather [5][6] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, weakening asphalt - crude oil spreads, and observing options [7] Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2507 closed at 4342 at night (- 0.41%), PG2508 closed at 4258 at night (- 0.35%). Spot prices varied by region [7] - **Related News**: Different regions had different price trends due to factors such as cost, supply, and demand [8][9] - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillation with a bullish bias for single - side trading [10] Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 3200 at night (- 1.42%), LU08 closed at 3758 at night (- 2.49%). Singapore paper - cargo spreads were given [10] - **Related News**: Russian fuel exports had different trends in different regions, and Singapore's marine fuel sales reached a 16 - month high in May [10][11] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe single - side trading, pay attention to geopolitical and macro - disturbances, and go long on the FU9 - 1 positive spread on dips [13] Natural Gas - **Market Review**: No specific market review data provided - **Related News**: US natural gas inventory increased more than expected, and European natural gas prices soared due to geopolitical tensions and high - temperature demand [14] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the HH contract on dips and be bullish on the TTF contract [14] PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6758 and then at 6694 at night. Spot prices and PXN were given [15] - **Related News**: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak [15] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, long PX and short PTA for spreads, and observe options [16] PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4766 and then at 4724 at night. Spot prices and basis were given [16] - **Related News**: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak [16] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, long PX and short PTA for spreads, and observe options [17] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4374 and then at 4336 at night. Spot prices and basis were given [18] - **Related News**: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak, port inventory decreased, and some Iranian devices stopped [18][19] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [20] Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 main contract closed at 6510 and then at 6448 at night. Spot prices were given [21] - **Related News**: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak [21] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [22] Bottle - Grade Polyester Chips - **Market Review**: PR2507 main contract closed at 5980 and then at 5926 at night. Spot prices were given [22] - **Related News**: Polyester bottle - chip factory export quotes were mostly stable with partial small increases [23] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [22] Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2507 main contract closed at 7589 and then at 7422 at night. Spot prices and basis were given [24] - **Related News**: Benzene - ethylene port inventory decreased, and upstream pure - benzene port inventory increased [24] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [25] Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE market prices continued to rise, and PP spot prices varied by region [26] - **Related News**: PE and PP maintenance ratios changed, and producer inventory decreased [26][27] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe in the short - term, short on rebounds in the mid - term, observe spreads and options [29] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices decreased, and caustic soda spot prices in some regions decreased [29] - **Related News**: Some prices of raw materials and products changed, and some enterprises adjusted prices [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe PVC in the short - term, short on rebounds in the long - term; be bearish on caustic soda's 09 contract, hold 8 - 10 reverse spreads, and observe options [33] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1174 yuan/ton and then at 1169 yuan/ton at night. Spot prices changed [33][34] - **Related News**: Soda ash inventory increased, and production increased [34] - **Trading Strategy**: Interval operation with a short - bias for single - side trading, observe spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [35] Glass - **Market Review**: Glass futures main 09 contract closed at 980 yuan/ton and then at 978 yuan/ton at night. Spot prices changed [35][36] - **Related News**: The glass market was weak, and some macro - data were unfavorable [36] - **Trading Strategy**: Interval operation with a short - bias for single - side trading, observe spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [37] Log - **Market Review**: Log spot prices in some regions were stable, and the main contract price rose [38] - **Related News**: Imported log shipping costs were stable, and arrival volumes in some ports changed [38] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe single - side trading, pay attention to 9 - 11 reverse spreads, and observe options [39] Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated and box - board paper prices mostly remained stable with some declines in the South [39][40] - **Related News**: Market transactions were weak, raw material prices decreased, and production loads decreased [40] - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided Double - Offset Paper - **Market Review**: Double - offset paper market was stable, and production and inventory data were given [41][42] - **Related News**: The market showed a weak supply - demand pattern [42] - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided Pulp - **Market Review**: The SP main 09 contract showed a small oscillation [42] - **Related News**: The papermaking industry was in the off - season, and some paper enterprises tried to raise prices [43][44] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the SP 09 contract, pay attention to the support at the Monday low, and observe spreads [44] Natural Rubber - **Market Review**: RU, NR, and BR contract prices changed, and spot prices were given [44][45] - **Related News**: China's auto production and sales increased in May [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the RU 09 and NR 08 contracts, hold relevant spreads, and observe options [47] Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR contract price decreased, and related spot prices were given [47] - **Related News**: A tire company had development plans [48] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the BR 08 contract, pay attention to the pressure at the Monday high, hold relevant spreads, and observe options [49]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 16, 2025, the trading volume of commodity options reached 6.75 million contracts. The trading volume of some varieties was relatively large, such as styrene options with 1.24 million contracts, PTA options with 480,000 contracts, and silver options with 430,000 contracts. In terms of open interest, soybean meal options exceeded 1.03 million contracts, and soda ash options exceeded 760,000 contracts. In terms of trading volume PCR, some varieties deviated significantly, such as zinc options with a PCR of 1.59 and urea options with a PCR of 0.39, presenting trading opportunities but also requiring caution regarding liquidity risks [1][3]. - In the agricultural products sector, the IV of hog options increased by 8.74%, and the IV of corn starch decreased by 2.48%. In the energy and chemical sector, the IV of styrene options increased by 9.24%, and the IV of manganese silicon options decreased by 1.18%. In the metal sector, the IV of each variety fluctuated, with the IV of iron ore options decreasing by 5.33% [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Quick View 1.1 Trading Volume and Open Interest - Provided detailed trading volume, open - interest, and other data for various option varieties, including soybean meal, corn, palm oil, etc. The trading volume and open - interest of different varieties showed significant differences, and the trading volume PCR and open - interest PCR also varied widely [6]. 1.2 Volatility - Presented the flat - strike IV, IV change (absolute value), historical volatility (30 - day, 60 - day, 90 - day), and implied - historical volatility difference for various option varieties. Different varieties had different trends in IV changes, such as an 8.74% increase in the IV of hog options and a 5.33% decrease in the IV of iron ore options [12]. 2. Variety Research - For each option variety (soybean meal options, rapeseed meal options, PTA options, etc.), it provided charts of the volatility smile curve, volatility term structure, recent one - month IV trend, and recent one - month implied - historical volatility difference [15][19][23].

日度数据跟踪 2025 年 6 月 16 日 【金融期权日报 0616】金融期权成 交量 579 万张，中证 500ETF 期权上 升 0.60% 重要事项：本报告版权归银河期货有限公司所有。未获得银河期货书面 授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。本报告的信息 均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证， 也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们已力求报告内容 的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或 意见并不构成交易建议，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作 者无关。 有关分析师承诺，见本报告最后部分。并请阅读报告最后一页的免责声 明。 分析师 谢怡伦 从业资格号：F03135587 投资咨询号：Z0021150 Tel：021-65789205 Email： xieyilun_qh@chinastock.com.cn 期 权 研 究 1 衍生品业务总部 ⚫ 金融期权成交量 579 万张：金融期权市场成交相对活跃，其 中上证 50ETF 期权成交量达到 94 万张，持仓量为 144 万张， 创业板 ETF 期权成交量达到 107 万张，持仓 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 调研报告 2025 年 6 月 16 日 【银河调研】棉花北疆种植及库存情况调研（一） 第一部分 调研背景 2025/26 年度棉花种植面积继续增加，新年度新疆棉产量如何变化？目前 新疆纺纱产能已经接近 3000 万锭，而目前新疆纺纱产能仍在继续扩大，在目 前这个国际贸易关系逐渐恶化的环境下新疆的纺织企业经营情况如何？此 外，随着近期新疆棉出库速度加快，市场担忧今年在新棉上市前的青黄不接 时期棉花供应可能会偏紧，新疆棉的真实库存情况如何？带着这些问题我们 对北疆地区的轧花厂、纺织企业以及监管库进行了调研。 第二部分 调研路线 乌鲁木齐市—五家渠—石河子—奎屯—精河 第三部分 调研纪要 某轧花厂 A 企业介绍：该企业有一个自有轧花厂，并有 20 多亩自有种植棉田，今年棉花 涨势尚可，目前棉苗高 30-40cm，预计 7、8 月份准备打顶。 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 :liuqiannan_qh@ch inastock.com.cn 1 / 3 棉花种植情况：据了解，今年北疆天气情况尚可，按照目前情况来看棉花生长 情况尚可，当地棉花种植面积 ...

目录 高硫近端受地缘及发电需求支撑 研究员：吴晓蓉 期货从业证号：F03108405 投资咨询证号：Z0021537 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 高硫燃料油现货窗口成交量环比上周减少但仍维持活跃，新加坡高库存压制现货贴水小幅回落，高硫裂解受到地缘和旺季发电需求的 支撑。俄乌冲突持续，炼厂离线产能较预期上调，俄罗斯高硫出港近端低位。美伊以冲突加剧，预期影响中东出口供应，关注后续伊 以进展。需求端，高硫季节性发电需求支撑，埃及和沙特高硫进口需求高位维持。 低硫燃料油现货贴水震荡，但低硫供应持续回升且下游需求仍较疲弱。尼日利亚Dangote汽油装置运行仍不稳定，低硫产量供应持续 流出。南苏丹对外低硫原料供应逐步回归至24年初水平，7月新装载船货一开始发布招标，6月共招标3船，5月5船。Al-Zour低硫出 口回升至炼厂正常运行时期高位。中国市场低硫六月排产预期增长，国内市场供应充裕需求稳定。 【策略】 单边 ...

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - Report title: Cotton Weekly Report: Fast De - stocking, Cotton Prices Slightly Bullish in Fluctuation [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] - Futures practice certificate number: F3013727 [1] - Consulting practice certificate number: Z0014425 [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is influenced by both macro - factors and fundamentals. Considering potential increased purchases from countries like Vietnam, the US cotton price is expected to be slightly bullish in fluctuation. The Zhengzhou cotton price also has the potential to be slightly bullish in fluctuation if the current de - stocking speed is maintained [7][14][23] Group 3: International Market Analysis US Cotton Market - The US cotton market is mainly affected by macro - factors. With potential increased purchases from countries like Vietnam, the price is expected to be slightly bullish in fluctuation [7] - As of June 8, the planting rate of cotton in 15 major cotton - planting states in the US was 76%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 4 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The squaring rate was 12%, 1 percentage point slower than last year and the same as the five - year average. The good - to - excellent rate was 49%, 7 percentage points lower than last year and 1 percentage point lower than the five - year average [7] - As of the week ending June 5, the weekly signing volume of 2024/25 US upland cotton was 1.36 million tons, a 45% week - on - week decrease and a 51% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 0.82 million tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2024/25 US upland cotton was 5.36 million tons, a 25% week - on - week decrease and a 19% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks [7] - As of June 6, the number of un - priced contracts of the ON - CALL 2507 contract held by sellers decreased by 1511 to 12276, a decrease of 30,000 tons from last week. The total number of un - priced contracts of the 24/25 annual sellers decreased by 1511 to 12276, equivalent to 280,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from last week. The total number of un - priced contracts of ICE sellers increased to 51692, equivalent to 1.17 million tons, an increase of 152 from last week [7] Global Cotton Situation - According to the latest USDA June data, the global cotton production in 25/26 was revised down by 178,000 tons to 25.47 million tons, with China's production increasing by 218,000 tons, India's decreasing by 217,000 tons, and the US's decreasing by 109,000 tons to 3.048 million tons. The total consumption was revised down by 70,000 tons to 25.638 million tons, with India's consumption decreasing by 109,000 tons to 555,200 tons. The global ending inventory in June decreased by 344,000 tons to 16.721 million tons, with the US's ending inventory decreasing by 196,000 tons [7] Group 4: Domestic Market Analysis Supply Side - As of May, the national commercial cotton inventory in China was 3.4587 million tons, at a relatively low level compared to historical data. As of June 6, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 3.2092 million tons, a decrease of 128,700 tons (3.86%) from last week. The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 108,200 tons (4.49%) and that in inland areas decreased by 4,600 tons (1.02%) [14] Demand Side - It is currently the off - season for market consumption. As of the end of May, the yarn inventory days in China were 22.34, and the grey fabric inventory was 32.89, both at relatively low levels compared to historical data. As of June 12, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 72.2%, a 2.43% decrease from the previous period. The cotton sales situation is relatively fast. As of June 5, the national new cotton sales rate was 88.2%, with a cumulative sales volume of 5.889 million tons, an increase of 163,000 tons from the previous period and a decrease of 729,400 tons compared to the four - year average [14] Overall Situation - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price is affected by macro - factors such as Sino - US trade relations and China's trade policies with other countries, which bring uncertainties. From the fundamental perspective, if the current de - stocking speed is maintained, the cotton price may be slightly bullish in fluctuation [14] Group 5: Option Strategies - On June 12, 2025, relevant data of several cotton option contracts are provided, including the option contract name, underlying contract price, closing price, price change rate, implied volatility (IV), Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta, theoretical leverage, and actual leverage [19] - The 120 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton was 10.4973. The position PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract was 0.9529, and the trading volume PCR was 0.6548. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased. The option strategy is to wait and see [21] Group 6: Futures Trading Strategies - The trading logic is similar to the analysis of the Zhengzhou cotton price. The price is affected by macro - factors and fundamentals. The strategies are as follows: for single - sided trading, the US cotton price is expected to be slightly bullish in fluctuation, and the Zhengzhou cotton price is expected to be bullish in fluctuation; for arbitrage and options, the strategy is to wait and see [23] Group 7: Weekly Data Tracking - The report presents data on the price difference between domestic and international cotton, the price difference between September and January contracts, the operating load of pure - cotton spinning mills and full - cotton grey fabric mills, yarn and grey fabric inventory days, cotton inventory (including commercial, industrial, and reserve inventories), and the basis of cotton futures and spot [25][26][28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg price showed a weak performance this week, with the average price in the main producing areas at 2.61 yuan/jin, down 0.22 yuan/jin from last Friday, and in the main selling areas at 2.85 yuan/jin, down 0.18 yuan/jin. The decline in egg prices has stimulated an increase in the willingness of some farmers to cull chickens, and the phenomenon of eggs entering cold storage has increased, slowing down the decline in egg prices [4]. - The supply of eggs is expected to remain high. In May, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.334 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the laying - hen inventory from June to September 2025 is expected to be around 1.339 billion, 1.347 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.350 billion respectively [8]. - The cost of egg production decreased slightly this week. Although the feed cost increased slightly, the decline in soybean meal prices led to a decrease in the overall cost of egg production. However, due to the decline in egg prices, the egg - farming profit continued to be in the red [11]. - The demand for eggs weakened. After the "6.18" promotion ended, the sales volume in the selling areas decreased, and the market inventory increased slightly. It is expected that the inventory will continue to increase seasonally next week [14]. - In terms of trading strategies, the near - month 07 futures contract is expected to remain weak, but the downward space is limited. If the culling volume of chickens continues to increase in the future, the 8 - and 9 - month futures contracts (peak - season contracts) may rise. It is recommended to consider building long positions in the 8 - and 9 - month contracts in the second half of June when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high, and adopt a strategy of shorting near - month contracts and going long on far - month contracts [15]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Spot Analysis** - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.61 yuan/jin, down 0.22 yuan/jin from last Friday, and in the main selling areas was 2.85 yuan/jin, down 0.18 yuan/jin. The low egg prices led to increased losses for farmers, accelerating the culling of old hens. The chicken -苗 market was in a mess, with the utilization rate of hatching eggs at about 70% - 80%, and the average price of young chickens was 16.89 yuan/head, remaining stable [4]. - **Supply Analysis** - The national laying - hen inventory in May was 1.334 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The monthly output of chicken -苗 in sample enterprises in May was 46.985 million, a month - on - month decrease of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 1%. The culling volume of laying hens in the main producing areas in the week of June 13 was 20.52 million, an increase of 2.8% from the previous week, and the average culling age was 512 days, a decrease of 3 days from the previous week [8]. - **Cost Analysis** - As of June 13, the corn price was around 2405 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 2994 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2582 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.84 yuan/jin for eggs. The egg - farming profit continued to be in the red, with the average weekly profit per jin of fresh eggs at - 0.47 yuan/jin as of June 12, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous week, and the expected egg - farming profit on June 13 at 15.5 yuan/head, a decrease of 1.09 yuan/head from the previous week [11]. - **Demand Analysis** - Affected by the "6.18" promotion, the market sales volume was okay at first, but then the sales volume in the selling areas decreased by 7.4% week - on - week. The national egg market inventory increased slightly, and it is expected to continue to increase seasonally next week. The vegetable price index rebounded, and the pork price index declined slightly [14]. - **Trading Strategy** - The near - month 07 futures contract is expected to remain weak, but the downward space is limited. If the culling volume of chickens continues to increase in the future, the 8 - and 9 - month futures contracts may rise. It is recommended to consider building long positions in the 8 - and 9 - month contracts in the second half of June when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high, and adopt a strategy of shorting near - month contracts and going long on far - month contracts. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [15]. Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - **Inventory (Zhuochuang)** - The data shows the historical and predicted data of the laying - hen inventory and chicken -苗 replenishment volume [8]. - **Culling Situation** - The data shows the historical data of the weekly culling volume of laying hens [8]. - **Egg - Farming Situation** - It includes the culling age of laying hens and the average price of chicken -苗 in the main producing areas [22]. - **Spread and Basis** - The data shows the historical data of the basis and spreads of different contracts, such as the 1 - month basis, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, etc. [24][25]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the downstream demand for apples remained weak. The increase in the variety and volume of seasonal fruits had a significant impact on apples. The off - season trading in apple - producing areas was poor, and the purchase volume of merchants decreased. The new - season apple bagging is mostly in the later stage, and attention should be paid to bagging data and weather conditions. It is predicted that the price of apple futures in June will likely maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend [6][15]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies Spot Analysis - The downstream demand for apples was weak. Seasonal fruits had a significant impact on apples, and the off - season trading in apple - producing areas was poor. In Shandong, the trading focused on high - cost - effective goods, and in the west, merchants mostly shipped by themselves. The new - season apple bagging was mostly in the later stage. In Shandong Qixia, the price of 80 first - and second - grade sliced red apples was 3.80 - 4.00 yuan/jin, etc. In Shaanxi Luochuan, the price of orchard - owner's general goods starting from 70 was 4.3 - 4.5 yuan/jin, etc [6]. Supply Analysis - As of June 12, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 8.93%, down 0.66 percentage points in this period, and 5.06 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The cold - storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 14.40%, down 1.01 percentage points, and in Shaanxi it was 8.35%, down 0.66 percentage points. The cold - storage trading volume in both regions was small [11]. Demand Analysis - The recent combined apple arrival volume in Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao was average, with 46 - 59 trucks this week. The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits on June 13 was 7.78 yuan/kg, slightly down from last Friday. The profit of storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia from 2024 - 2025 was 0.9 yuan/jin, unchanged from last week. The market arrival volume decreased, the mainstream price was stable, and the price of high - quality goods in Gansu increased. The demand for apples was weak due to the increase in seasonal fruits and rising temperatures [14]. Trading Strategy - Trading logic: The low inventory of this season's apples is expected to support the opening price of early - maturing apples such as Gala. The windy and hot weather in April affected the fruit - setting in parts of Shaanxi. It is predicted that the apple futures price in June will likely maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend. - Single - side: Build long positions in AP10 at low levels in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [15]. Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking Apple Supply and Demand - Data on apple export, planting area, consumption, etc., from 2018 - 2023 were presented, but specific data descriptions were not detailed in the summary part [18]. Inventory and Shipment - As of June 12, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 8.93%, and the inventory in Shandong and Shaanxi cold - storages decreased. The cold - storage trading volume was small, and the shipment speed slowed down [11]. Spread and Basis - Data on 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 10 spread, 10 - 1 spread, and 1 - month, 5 - month, and 10 - month basis from 2019 - 2025 were presented in the form of charts, but specific data descriptions were not detailed in the summary part [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to be under pressure due to the expected global sugar surplus in the new season. The ISO has raised its forecast for the global sugar shortage in the 2024/25 season, but Datagro expects a surplus in the 2025/26 season [7][9]. - Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, but exports in May decreased compared to the same period last year. The number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar waiting for shipment have also decreased [10][18][20]. - In India, the 2024/25 season's ending sugar inventory is sufficient to meet domestic demand, and the sugar price is stable. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a strong recovery in sugar production [21]. - In China, the 2024/25 sugar production has ended, with an increase in both production and sales. The 2025/26 season's supply and demand forecast remains unchanged, and the current growing conditions for sugarcane and beets are favorable [24]. - The short - term sugar price is expected to be weak. Domestically, the fast sales pace may support the price, but the upcoming large - scale import of sugar may drag it down. Internationally, the approaching supply peak in Brazil and the weak recent performance of raw sugar also contribute to the weak outlook [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis** - Internationally, with Brazil approaching the supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to start accumulating. Raw sugar is expected to fluctuate, and its short - term trend will be affected by production data. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase [3]. - Domestically, the fast sales pace may support the sugar price, but the large - scale import of sugar and the weak recent performance of raw sugar may lead to a short - term weakening of the sugar price [3]. - **Logic Analysis** - Raw sugar prices have declined due to the expected high yield in Brazil. Future weather changes may affect the sugarcane crushing progress and raw sugar supply. In China, the delayed summer stocking demand and the weak short - term performance of raw sugar are expected to keep Zhengzhou sugar prices weak [4]. - **Trading Strategies** - Unilateral: Bearish view. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Out - of - the - money ratio spread options [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - The expected high yield in the global sugar market's new season is putting pressure on sugar prices. The ISO has adjusted its forecast for the 2024/25 season's sugar shortage, and Datagro expects a surplus in the 2025/26 season [7][9]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Brazil** - S&P Global expects an increase in sugar production in the second half of May in Brazil's central - southern region [10]. - In May, Brazil's sugar and molasses exports were 225.66 million tons, a decrease of 55.45 million tons (19.72%) compared to the same period last year. From April to May in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar exports were 380.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.84% [20]. - As of the week of June 11, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased from 90 to 80, and the quantity of sugar waiting for shipment decreased by 33.66 million tons (10.36%) to 291.04 million tons compared to the previous week [20]. - **India** - The NFCSF estimates that the ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 season will be about 4.865 million metric tons, which can meet domestic demand from October to November 2025 and stabilize the sugar price. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a strong recovery in sugar production [21]. - **China** - In June, the 2024/25 sugar production was adjusted to 11.16 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. As of the end of May, the cumulative production was 11.16 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.2 million tons), and the cumulative sales were 8.11 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.52 million tons). The sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year [24]. - In April, China imported 130,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 75,700 tons compared to the same period last year. From January to April 2025, the total sugar imports were 278,400 tons, a decrease of 979,100 tons (77.86%) compared to the same period last year. From the start of the 2024/25 season to April, the cumulative sugar imports were 1.7401 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3773 million tons (44.18%) [26]. - From the start of the 2024/25 season to April, the cumulative imports of three types of goods under item 170290 were 806,700 tons, a decrease of 125,300 tons (13.44%) compared to the same period last year [27].