研究所 天然气研发报告 天然气日报 2026 年 2 月 9 日 天然气市场日报 | | | | 国际天然气价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元/MMBTU | 2026/2/6 | 2026/2/5 | 2026/2/2 | | 2026/1/9 日度涨跌幅 7日涨跌幅 | | 30日涨跌幅 | | HH 2603 | 3.422 | 3.509 | 3.237 | 2.634 | -2.48% | 5.72% | 29.92% | | HH 2604 | 3.23 | 3.331 | 3.173 | 2.674 | -3.03% | 1.80% | 20.79% | | JKM 2603 | 11.105 | 11.08 | 11.15 | 9.45 | 0.23% | -0.40% | 17.51% | | JKM 2604 | 10.76 | 10.42 | 10.335 | 9.185 | 3.26% | 4.11% | 17.15% | | TFU 2603 | 35.694 | 33.735 | 3 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The spot price of peanuts is expected to be relatively stable in the short term, with the price of Henan peanuts stable and that of Northeast peanuts slightly stronger [3][6] - The spot price of peanut oil is stable, and the peanut meal has been stable recently. Oil mills have good theoretical profitability [3][4][6] - The peanut futures are oscillating at a high level, with the market trading on the ample supply of oil peanuts and the low import price. However, the cost of warehouse receipts is still expected to be relatively high [6] Group 3: Summary by Directory Part 1: Data - **Futures盘面**: PK604 closed at 7942, up 18 (0.23%), with a trading volume of 14,856 (up 23.21%) and an open interest of 55,776 (down 2.89%); PK610 closed at 8244, up 2 (0.02%), with a trading volume of 95 (down 62.30%) and an open interest of 2,726 (up 0.89%); PK601 had no valid data [1] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7400, 8000, and 8000 respectively, with no change. The prices of Rizhao peanut meal, Rizhao soybean meal, peanut oil, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil were 3250, 3040, 14300, and 8470 respectively, with the soybean meal price down 10 and the soybean oil price up 20. The basis for Henan Nanyang was - 542, and for Shandong Jining and Linyi was 58 [1] - **Import Price**: The price of Sudanese peanuts was 8600, with no change, and the price of Senegalese peanuts was also unchanged [1] - **Spread**: The spread of PK04 - PK10 was up 16 [1] Part 2: Market Analysis - The price of peanuts in Henan is stable, and that in the Northeast is slightly stronger. The pre - sale price of imported Senegalese peanuts is stable. The purchase price of some peanut oil mills is stable, with the mainstream transaction price between 6900 - 7900 yuan/ton and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills at 7800 yuan/ton. The price of soybean oil is up, and the price of peanut oil is stable. The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal is stable, and the short - term peanut meal is relatively strong [3][4] Part 3: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Go long on 05 peanuts at low prices with a light position [7] - **Monthly Spread**: Wait and see [8] - **Options**: Sell pk603 - P - 8200 at high prices [9] Part 4: Related Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the压榨 profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread of peanut 4 - 10 contracts, and the spread of peanut 1 - 4 contracts [11][14][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is continuously gaming the implementation of price increases and the situation of geopolitical conflicts. The EC market as a whole maintains a volatile trend. MSK has announced the suspension of the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) on the Nordic routes. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday spot freight rates [6]. - The freight volume is gradually entering the decline phase after reaching the peak. The supply - side shipping capacity deployment has little change compared with the previous period. The shipping capacity in the first week of March after the Spring Festival is relatively small, and then rebounds with the resumption of work and production. From a traditional seasonal perspective, freight rates are in the off - season from February to April. After the policy of canceling export tax rebates for most commodities starting from April 1st, the expected rush of shipments is less than expected. Geopolitical situations are volatile, and it is still difficult for a large number of ships on the European routes to resume operation in the first half of the year. The risk in the Iranian situation has not been eliminated. Attention should be paid to the US - Iran negotiations and the military deployment in the Middle East [7]. - For trading strategies, for unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival as the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. For arbitrage, positive spreads between June and October contracts should be rolled at low levels [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) 3.1.1 Futures Disk - Different futures contracts (EC2602, EC2604, etc.) have different closing prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, trading volume change rates, open interest, and open interest change rates. For example, EC2602 closed at 1,756.0, up 16.1 (0.93%), with a trading volume of 124.0 (down 44.39%) and an open interest of 1,437.0 (up 0.56%) [4]. - The price differences between different contracts (such as EC02 - EC04, EC02 - EC06, etc.) and their price changes are also presented. For example, the price difference between EC02 and EC04 is 518, up 9.3 [4]. 3.1.2 Container Freight Rates - Different container freight rates (such as SCFIS European Line, SCFIS US West Line, etc.) have different prices, week - on - week and year - on - year changes. For example, the SCFIS European Line is at 1657.94 points, down 7.49% week - on - week and 29.54% year - on - year [4]. 3.1.3 Fuel Costs - WTI crude oil near - month price is $63.28 per barrel, up 0.80% week - on - week and down 10.29% year - on - year. Brent crude oil near - month price is $67.44 per barrel, up 0.84% week - on - week and down 9.3% year - on - year [4]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations 3.2.1 Market Analysis - The market is in a state of continuous gaming. The EC market shows a volatile trend. MSK's decision to stop collecting PSS on the Nordic routes and the post - holiday spot freight rates need to be monitored. The demand for goods is in a downward phase after reaching the peak, and the supply - side shipping capacity deployment has little change. Geopolitical factors also have an impact on the shipping market [6][7]. 3.2.2 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: It is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival as the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to factors such as the vacuum period of spot freight rates before the festival and geopolitical risks [8]. - Arbitrage: Positive spreads between June and October contracts should be rolled at low levels [9]. 3.3 Industry News - The US has imposed tariffs on countries trading with Iran and sanctioned 15 entities, 2 individuals, and 14 ships related to Iranian oil and petrochemical products [11]. - Spain hopes to further develop its relationship with China, and the Spanish Prime Minister plans to visit China this year [12]. - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will meet with US President Trump to discuss US - Iran negotiations, and the Iranian Foreign Minister has threatened US military bases in the region [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The overall pressure on the domestic soybean meal market has increased due to the decline in cost and improvement in supply. Rapeseed meal is under downward pressure, mainly affected by the decline of soybean meal. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expanding. The short - term spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows a downward trend. The overall supply and demand of the international soybean market is relatively loose, and the price is under pressure. The domestic spot supply is tight, the market demand is good, and the price is supported. The trading strategy is mainly based on a bearish view, with the spread of MRM expanding and the option of selling a wide - straddle strategy [3][4][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing prices of most soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts declined on February 9, 2026. The spot basis of soybean meal in some regions decreased, while in others it increased. The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal also changed. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal expanded, and the spreads between different months of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends [3] - **Soybean Pressing Profit**: The pressing profit of Brazilian soybeans varied by shipping date. For example, the pressing profit in April was 36.13 (disk) and 112.63 (spot), with a change of 9.03 compared to the previous day [10] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The U.S. soybean's carry - over stocks and quarterly grain inventory data are bearish. Although the export of U.S. soybeans has improved, the overall supply - demand is still loose. In South America, Brazil's new - crop soybeans are expected to be in a good harvest, and the export volume is expected to increase. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is large, and the pressure on export and pressing has improved [4] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot supply is tightening. The oil mill's operating rate has increased, but the overall quantity has decreased, and the提货量 has also decreased slightly. The inventory is declining. The market transaction has increased significantly, and the overall demand is good. The subsequent supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is uncertain, and the demand is average, so it is expected to be in a volatile state [7] 3.3 Logic Analysis - **U.S. Soybeans**: Driven by macro - factors, U.S. soybeans are running strongly in the short - term, but there is still long - term pressure. The uncertainty in the international market mainly comes from the weather. If the yield is affected, it may drive up the price [8] - **Domestic Market**: The subsequent arrival volume of domestic soybeans will gradually decrease, and the supply is uncertain. The spot has certain support, but the disk has fully reflected the positive factors, so there is still pressure. The rapeseed meal disk is also under downward pressure, mainly due to the increase in the subsequent arrival volume. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to expand [8] 3.4 Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Adopt a bearish strategy - **Arbitrage**: Expand the MRM spread - **Options**: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [9]

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is the "Black Metal Daily Report - Ferroalloy Daily" dated February 9, 2026 [1] - The researcher is Zhou Tao, with futures practice certificate number F03134259 and investment consulting certificate number Z0021009 [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF main contract closed at 5594, down 30 for the day and week, with a trading volume of 163,653 (down 71,235) and an open interest of 159,348 (up 7,845) [3] - SM main contract closed at 5812, down 44 for the day and 22 for the week, with a trading volume of 173,864 (down 32,409) and an open interest of 370,051 (up 11,034) [3] Spot - For ferrosilicon, 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5390, down 50 for the day and 30 for the week; in Ningxia, it was 5370, down 30 for the day and 80 for the week; in Qinghai, it was 5350, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 5750, unchanged; in Tianjin, it was 5730, down 70 for the week [3] - For silicomanganese, 6517 silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5650, unchanged for the day and down 30 for the week; in Ningxia, it was 5590, down 20 for the day and 30 for the week; in Guangxi, it was 5750, down 30 for the day; in Jiangsu, it was 5800, down 50 for the week; in Tianjin, it was 5750, down 30 for the week [3] Basis/Spread - For ferrosilicon, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was -204, down 20 for the day; the Ningxia - main contract basis was -224, unchanged for the day and down 50 for the week; the Qinghai - main contract basis was -244, up 30 for the day and week; the Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia spread was 360, up 50 for the day and 30 for the week; the SF - SM spread was -218, up 14 for the day and down 8 for the week [3] - For silicomanganese, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was -162, up 44 for the day and down 8 for the week; the Ningxia - main contract basis was -222, up 24 for the day and down 8 for the week; the Guangxi - main contract basis was -62, up 14 for the day and 22 for the week; the Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread was 100, down 30 for the day and up 30 for the week [3] Raw Materials - For manganese ore in Tianjin, Australian lump was priced at 41.5, unchanged for the day and week; South African semi - carbonate was 36.3, unchanged for the day and up 0.1 for the week; Gabon lump was 42.8, unchanged for the day and up 0.2 for the week [3] - For semi - coke small pieces, in Shaanxi, it was 755, unchanged; in Ningxia, it was 805, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia, it was 745, unchanged [3] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - On February 9, ferroalloy futures prices rose and then fell. The ferrosilicon main contract closed at 5594, down 0.53%, with an increase of 7,845 in open interest; the silicomanganese main contract closed at 5812, down 0.75%, with an increase of 11,034 in open interest [5] - For ferrosilicon, on the 9th, the spot price was stable with a slight weakness, and the spot price in some regions fell by 30 - 50 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the output of sample enterprises rebounded slightly from a low level, but temporary power outages in some production areas in Ningxia led to some output losses, and the statistical data this week may decline again. On the demand side, steel inventories began to accumulate seasonally, and steel output also decreased seasonally before the Spring Festival, but hot metal output was relatively stable, and raw material demand was temporarily supported. On the cost side, the electricity prices for ferroalloys in production areas were generally stable in January, and some areas saw an increase. Overall, the supply and demand of ferrosilicon were relatively stable. Near the long holiday, it was recommended to partially take profits on previous long positions at high prices [5] - For silicomanganese, on the 9th, the manganese ore spot was generally stable, and the silicomanganese spot was stable with a slight weakness, and the spot price in some regions fell by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the operating rate and output both decreased again. With the current poor profit level, it was expected that the output within the sample would remain at a low level. On the demand side, steel output began to decrease seasonally, and the hot metal output from blast furnaces was currently stable, but the seasonal reduction in electric furnace production was more obvious, which had a greater impact on the demand for silicomanganese. On the cost side, the manganese ore inventory at ports decreased again at a low level, the spot price at ports was firm, and the US dollar quotes for manganese ore from overseas mines in March continued to rise slightly. Overall, the supply and demand of silicomanganese were stable, and the cost support was strong. Near the long holiday, it was recommended to partially take profits on previous long positions at high prices [6] - Unilateral: Near the long holiday, it was recommended to partially take profits on previous long positions at high prices; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [7] Important Information - On the 9th, the semi - carbonate price at Tianjin Port was 37 yuan/ton degree, Gabon lump was 43 yuan/ton degree, CML Australian lump was 43.5 yuan/ton degree, and South32 Australian lump was 42 yuan/ton degree [8] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by March was 19.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 80.1%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by April was 31.1%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 65.2%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively was 3.7%. The probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by June was 51.1% [8] Group 4: Related Attachments - There are multiple charts including the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM on the disk, the inter - monthly spread of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the basis of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the spot price of silicomanganese, the ferroalloy electricity price, the cost and profit of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, and the production cost and profit of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [9][12][14][15][17][18][20][25]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel futures market maintained a weak and volatile trend with low overall volatility, and the spot steel trading volume was generally weak. The overall production of the five major steel products decreased last week, but the hot metal production increased. Steel mills are gradually entering the holiday shutdown and maintenance mode. The total steel inventory is accumulating at an accelerated pace, with the inventory of rebar accumulating faster than that of hot-rolled coils, and the overall social inventory pressure is greater than that of the mill inventory. Recently, the weather has turned cold, and downstream construction sites have gradually stopped work, leading to a rapid decline in building material demand. Steel exports have decreased due to the decline in export licenses, and overseas manufacturing has gradually ended restocking, resulting in a decline in hot-rolled coil demand. The fundamentals of the steel market have weakened marginally. Recently, the continuous resumption of hot metal production, combined with the steel mills' need for restocking, has supported the raw material costs. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate following the macro sentiment before the Spring Festival. However, the current steel inventory is relatively high, and capital expenditure after the festival may fall short of expectations. The demand recovery situation remains to be seen, and the pessimistic expectations of steel mills may also limit the hot metal production this year, putting pressure on raw materials. Currently, the positions of the main steel contracts are relatively high, and attention should be paid to sudden capital actions before the festival. In the future, attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of coal mines, hot metal production, downstream demand performance, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - No specific content provided in the given text Market Research and Judgment - **Related Prices**: The spot prices are as follows: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3,190 yuan (-), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3,120 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil is 3,250 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil is 3,140 yuan (-) [5]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: The steel market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend before the Spring Festival [7]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high prices, and continue to hold the short position of the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [7]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Important Information** - The new issue of the Cailian Press "C50 Wind Direction Index" shows that the financial data in January 2026 may have a "good start", but the overall level is weaker than that in the same period of 2025. The median forecast of market institutions for new RMB loans in January is 4.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.43 trillion yuan; the median forecast for new social financing is 7.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.05 trillion yuan. In terms of money supply, the month-on-month growth rate of M2 in January may decline marginally, while M1 may increase due to the low base effect of the Spring Festival [8][9]. - On February 6, 2026, the Foreign Trade Secretariat of the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services of Brazil issued Announcement No. 6 of 2026, making a positive preliminary anti-dumping ruling on wire rods originating from China and Russia. It is recommended to continue the investigation without implementing temporary anti-dumping measures, and the time limit for making a final ruling in this case is extended to within 18 months from the date of filing [9]. Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the summary price of rebar and hot-rolled coil, the basis of different contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil, the price difference between different contracts, the disk profit of different contracts, the cash profit of different steel products, and the cost of electric furnaces. The data sources are Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [14][16][19]

Report Information - Report Date: February 9, 2026 [1] - Report Type: Crude Oil Spot Market Daily Report [1] - Researcher: Zhao Ruochen [2] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03151390 [2] - Investment Consultation Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0023496 [2] Key Points Trade and Logistics - US President Donald Trump authorized the government to impose tariffs on countries trading with Iran but did not immediately implement new tariff measures [2] - Trump cancelled the 25% additional tariff on India for purchasing Russian oil, a step to consolidate bilateral trade agreement terms [2] - Due to the slow复产 of the giant Tengiz oil field from the January power facility fire, Kazakhstan's oil exports through the main Russian pipeline this month may decline by up to 35% [2] National Strategy - The United Steelworkers of America reached a national agreement on pay and benefits on Friday, averting a national strike risk that could have affected 30,000 employees at 26 companies mainly engaged in crude oil refining and petrochemical plants [2] - Cuba is at risk of losing key aviation services as aviation fuel is running out, and its allies have cut off an important channel for emigration under US pressure to overthrow the Havana regime [2] Spot Transactions - South Korean refining companies including GS Caltex and SK Energy have recently purchased more CPC Blend crude oil for March loading after making similar deals last week [2] Oilfield Pipelines - Namibia's Ministry of Energy said that TotalEnergies and Petrobras did not notify the government in advance of their equity acquisition plan for offshore exploration licenses in the country [2] Logical Analysis - The market is assessing the progress of the US-Iran nuclear negotiations and reacting strongly to related news [2] - Crude oil had its first weekly decline since mid-December, reflecting the squeezing out of geopolitical premiums in oil prices [2] - The market is expected to be in a wide-range shock, with Brent in the range of $66 - $68 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market continues to have a situation of oversupply. The domestic production of broadleaf pulp has increased, and port inventories have been accumulating for five consecutive weeks. The downstream paper mills' procurement is almost stagnant, and overall demand support is weak [5]. - The supply - demand of double - offset paper maintains a weak balance. Supply has increased, but downstream consumption is flat, and the contradiction between supply and demand has not been effectively alleviated. Its valuation is at a low level, and short - term trading is light due to the Spring Festival [5]. - Pulp valuation shows a weak shock trend. In the short term, there is a lack of positive support, and in the long term, it is necessary to pay attention to the downstream resumption of work and restocking rhythm after the festival and port destocking [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The pulp market has an oversupply pattern, and the double - offset paper market has a weak supply - demand balance. Pulp valuation is weak, and double - offset paper valuation is at a low level [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, the main idea is to short SP2505 and be bearish on OP2502; for arbitrage, mainly wait and see, and pay attention to 4SP - OP arbitrage; for options, wait and see for SP options and sell OP2602 - C - 4250 [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Pulp Market**: The supply of domestic broadleaf pulp is 24.9 tons (a month - on - month increase of 0.9 tons), and chemical mechanical pulp slightly increases by 0.2 tons. Port inventories have accumulated to 218.2 tons, and downstream paper mills' procurement is almost stagnant [5]. - **Double - Offset Paper**: Production is 20.1 tons (a month - on - month increase of 7.5%), capacity utilization is 51.4%. Downstream consumption is flat, and enterprise inventories are 142.2 tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.1%) [5]. - **Pulp Valuation**: It is in a weak shock state, with core pressure from pre - festival demand stagnation and continuous port inventory accumulation [5]. - **Double - Offset Paper Valuation**: It is at a low level, with supply abundance and weak demand as core constraints. Short - term trading is light, and long - term improvement depends on the optimization of the supply - demand pattern [5]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Supply - **Double - Offset Paper**: Production is 20.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.4 tons (7.5%), and capacity utilization is 51.4%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. The weekly average profit is - 483.8 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin drops by 1.2 percentage points [9]. - **Coated Paper**: Production is 8.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 tons (1.2%), and capacity utilization is 62.0%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%. The weekly average profit is - 5.5 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin rises by 1.1 percentage points [17]. - **Domestic Pulp**: The production of broadleaf pulp is 24.9 tons, an increase of 0.9 tons from last week. The production profit margin is relatively stable [25]. - **Wood Pulp**: The market price of chemical mechanical pulp is 2575 yuan/ton, remaining flat. As of February 5, 2026, the inventory of mainstream port samples is 218.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3 tons (0.6%) [29]. 3.3.2 Inventory - **Double - Offset Paper**: The production enterprise inventory is 142.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. It is expected to continue increasing in the next cycle [13]. - **Coated Paper**: The production enterprise inventory is 39.7 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.1%. It is expected to continue increasing in the next cycle [22]. - **Life - Use Paper**: The production is 29.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13%. The inventory is 63 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.16%, and the inventory days are 20.52 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.15% [33]. - **White Cardboard**: The production is 35.0 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.9 tons (5.74%). The production factory inventory is 104.0 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 tons (0.19%) [36]. 3.3.3 Price - **Double - Offset Paper**: The enterprise average price of 70g double - offset paper is 4571.4 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% [44]. - **Coated Paper**: The enterprise average price of 157g coated paper is 4903.6 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4% [44]. - **Imported Pulp**: The average spot price of coniferous pulp is 5331 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%; the average spot price of broadleaf pulp is 4600 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%; the average spot price of chemical mechanical pulp is 3800 yuan/ton, remaining flat; the average spot price of natural color pulp is 4950 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.58% [48].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The valuation of logs is relatively strong this week with regional price differentiation. The support for the valuation comes from tight domestic arrivals, continuous inventory reduction, and a $3 increase in the February foreign market, which raises the procurement cost of traders. However, the approaching Spring Festival leads to a market shutdown and a temporary decline in demand, so the valuation lacks the momentum for continuous growth. Attention should be paid to the recovery of post - holiday resumption demand and the increase in arrivals from New Zealand [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - On the supply side, the shipment from New Zealand has returned to normal, but the arrival volume at 13 domestic ports has decreased by 15% month - on - month to 185,000 cubic meters, still at a relatively low level. On the demand side, as the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market is closed, and the national daily average outbound volume has slightly decreased by 0.16%. However, the capital availability of construction sites has continuously improved, with the growth rate of housing construction projects leading, driving some projects to rush for work and stock up. There is regional demand differentiation, with an increase in outbound volume in Shandong and Fujian and a decline in Jiangsu. On the inventory side, the total port inventory has decreased by 2.81% month - on - month to 2.42 million cubic meters. The main timber species such as radiata pine are all in a state of inventory reduction, and the inventory in major ports such as Shandong and Jiangsu has generally decreased, with overall tight supply [6]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. Aggressive investors can lay out long positions based on last month's low point. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the reverse arbitrage of log 03 - 05. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8][9] Core Logic Analysis - The log valuation is strong this week with regional price differentiation. The support for the valuation comes from tight domestic arrivals, continuous inventory reduction, and a $3 increase in the February foreign market, which raises the procurement cost of traders. The suppressing factor is the approaching Spring Festival, which leads to a market shutdown and a temporary decline in demand. In the short term, there is a game between cost support and the off - season of demand, and the valuation lacks the momentum for continuous growth. Attention should be paid to the recovery of post - holiday resumption demand and the increase in arrivals from New Zealand [7]. Weekly Data Tracking Log Supply - The expected shipment volume of New Zealand logs to China in January 2026 is 933,000 cubic meters, a 39% decrease compared to December. The number of shipment vessels is 29, a decrease of 26 compared to December. From January 31 to February 6, 2026, New Zealand directly shipped 9 vessels with 340,000 cubic meters of logs to China, an increase of 2 vessels and 70,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. From February 2 to February 8, 2026, the pre - arrival vessels of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports are 5, 2 less than the previous week, a 29% week - on - week decrease; the total arrival volume is about 185,000 cubic meters, 33,000 cubic meters less than the previous week, a 15% week - on - week decrease [18][19]. Log Inventory - As of January 30, the total domestic log inventory of different materials is 2.42 million cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a 2.81% week - on - week decrease. The radiata pine inventory is 2.06 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a 2.83% week - on - week decrease. The North American timber inventory is 110,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, an 8.33% week - on - week decrease. The spruce/fir inventory is 110,000 cubic meters, the same as the previous week. In terms of different provinces, as of January 30, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong is 1,771,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 117,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period; the total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu is 407,604 cubic meters, a decrease of 117,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period; the total inventory of 3 ports in Fujian is 124,223 cubic meters, a decrease of 20,057 cubic meters compared to the previous period [22]. Log Demand - As of January 30, the daily average outbound volume of logs at 13 ports is 61,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 100 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a 0.16% week - on - week decrease. Among them, the daily average total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong is 38,900 cubic meters, an increase of 2,800 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a 7.76% week - on - week increase; the daily average total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu is 15,900 cubic meters, a decrease of 3,500 cubic meters compared to the previous period, an 18.04% week - on - week decrease; the daily average total outbound volume of 3 ports in Fujian is 5,200 cubic meters, an increase of 1,200 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a 30% week - on - week increase. As of February 3, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites is 60.27%, a 0.59 - percentage - point increase week - on - week. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects is 61.18%, a 0.54 - percentage - point increase week - on - week; the capital availability rate of housing construction projects is 55.71%, a 0.72 - percentage - point increase week - on - week [26]. Log Prices - In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port this week is 750 yuan per cubic meter, a 10 - yuan increase compared to last week, a 1.35% week - on - week increase, and a 60 - yuan decrease compared to the same period last year, a 7.41% year - on - year decrease. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week is 780 yuan per cubic meter, the same as last week. In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - quality spruce logs at Rizhao Port this week is 1150 yuan per cubic meter, the same as last week, and a 100 - yuan increase compared to last year, a 9.52% year - on - year increase [33]. - For radiata pine wood squares, taking 3000*40*90 radiata pine wood squares as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1270 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1290 yuan per cubic meter. For spruce/white pine wood squares, taking 3000*40*90 white pine wood squares as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1730 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1680 yuan per cubic meter [38]. Import Log Costs - In February 2026, the FOB price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs is $113 per JAS cubic meter, a $3 increase compared to last month. The FOB price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter 20+ spruce logs is 125 euros per JAS cubic meter, a 1 - euro increase compared to last month [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the nomination of the new Fed Chair and the release of Q4 earnings of large US tech companies, overseas policy easing and AI industry expansion narratives have fluctuated, leading to a decline in market risk appetite. Meanwhile, the central bank restarted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation, and the money market remained balanced and loose. The bond market strengthened this week, and futures bond prices generally rose [6]. - In the future, the decline in the profit - making effect of risk assets and the approach of the Spring Festival may bring incremental funds to the bond market. The probability of the 10Y Treasury yield breaking below 1.8% is increasing. However, the short - term yield decline may be limited due to weak policy rate cut expectations, and the bond market sentiment may turn cautious as the second - hand housing market in core cities shows signs of stabilization and important meetings are approaching after the Spring Festival [6]. - The short - term risk - off does not mean a fundamental reversal of the optimistic macro - narrative, and the de - leveraging of risk assets does not mean a complete reversal of their trends [6]. 3. Summary According to Different Sections 3.1 First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Market risk appetite decline**: The nomination of the new Fed Chair and Q4 earnings of large US tech companies caused fluctuations in overseas policy easing and AI industry expansion narratives. This led to increased volatility in global risk asset prices, which spread to the domestic market. The decline in risk - asset profit - making effect and risk appetite was beneficial to the bond market, driving the bond market to strengthen this week [16]. - **Stable cross - festival funds**: Next week, government bond issuance and payment will increase to 6436.87 million yuan. With the approaching Spring Festival, cross - festival fund prices are expected to converge. However, the central bank's clear attitude to protect liquidity may limit the actual fluctuation of fund prices [18]. - **Partial recovery of the second - hand housing market**: Recently, the second - hand housing market in some core cities has shown signs of marginal stabilization, especially in first - tier cities where the second - hand housing listing price index has risen for three consecutive weeks since mid - January. This may be due to the introduction of local housing purchase policies and the market's need for stabilization after a rapid price decline in Q4 last year. However, the sustainability of the recovery needs further observation [29][31]. - **Low valuation of futures bond market**: As of Friday's close, the IRR of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts were 1.3104%, 1.4461%, 1.3764%, and 1.3644% respectively. Compared with spot bonds, the futures bond market valuation was mostly at a slightly lower - than - neutral level [36]. - **Slow progress of main contract roll - over**: The roll - over of main contracts accelerated this week but was still slower than the historical average. As of Friday, the roll - over progress of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts was 22.0%, 34.7%, 24.6%, and 35.3% respectively [37]. - **Net short - position dominance in the top ten futures seats**: During the rise of futures prices this week, the net long - position ratio of the top ten seats decreased. As of Friday, the net position ratios of TS, TF, T, and TL top ten seats were - 21.38%, - 6.99%, - 4.58%, and - 3.30% respectively. With low contract valuation, slow roll - over, net short - position dominance, and no significant increase in interest - rate cut expectations, the inter - delivery spread may strengthen periodically [44]. - **High spread between new and old ultra - long bonds**: The spread between new and old 30Y bonds widened significantly this week and then narrowed. As of Friday, the spreads between the CTD bonds of TL current and next - season contracts and active bonds were 7.71bp and 7.10bp respectively. It is recommended to short the spread between new and old ultra - long bonds using futures bonds. However, significant spread narrowing may require the elimination of negative factors such as government bond supply, and the next - season TL contract may be a better choice for arbitrage positions [47]. 3.1.2 Strategy Recommendations - **Single - side strategy**: Partially take profits on long TL positions and hold the remaining lightly [7][8]. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Pay appropriate attention to going long on the T - contract inter - delivery spread and shorting the spread between new and old ultra - long bonds using futures bonds [7][8]. 3.2 Second Part: Related Data Tracking - **Bond futures contract spreads**: Data on spreads between TS, TF, T, and TL contracts are provided, showing historical trends [52]. - **Trading volume and open interest**: Data on trading volume and open interest of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts are presented [55]. - **Spot bond yields and spreads**: Information on Treasury bond yield curves, term spreads, spreads between Treasury and local bonds, and spreads between 10Y Treasury and CDB bonds are given [58]. - **US Treasury yields and exchange rates**: Data on US 10 - year Treasury yields, Sino - US 10 - year Treasury yield spreads, the US dollar index, and the offshore US dollar - RMB exchange rate are provided [61].