Group 1: Report General Information - Report Date: January 5, 2026 [1] - Report Type: Black Metal Daily Report (Ferroalloy) [1] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [2] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03134259 [2] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0021009 [2] - Contact Information: zhoutao_qh1@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF Main Contract: Closing price 5624, daily change -48, weekly change -68, trading volume 178,709, daily change -46,606, open interest 218,692, daily change 8,632 [3] - SM Main Contract: Closing price 5874, daily change -46, weekly change 28, trading volume 141,265, daily change -5,295, open interest 269,474, daily change 1,707 [3] Spot - Ferrosilicon: 72%FeSi prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin had daily and weekly changes, with some regions down 30 - 40 yuan/ton [3] - Silicomanganese: SiMn6517 prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin had daily and weekly changes, with some cities down 20 yuan/ton [3] Basis/Spread - Ferrosilicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis -264, daily change 8, weekly change 78; Ningxia - main contract basis -254, daily change 18, weekly change 88; etc [3] - Silicomanganese: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis -224, daily change 46, weekly change 32; Ningxia - main contract basis -304, daily change 46, weekly change 22; etc [3] - SF - SM Spread: -250, daily change -2, weekly change -96 [3] Raw Materials - Manganese Ore (Tianjin): Australian lump, South African semi - carbonate, and Gabon lump had daily and weekly price changes, with Gabon lump up 0.3 yuan/ton degree [3] - Lanthanum Coke Small Pieces: Prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were stable [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Ferrosilicon - Supply: Sample enterprise开工率 rebounded slightly, but expected to decline in the future under current profit levels [5] - Demand: After blast furnace maintenance ends in January, there will be a phased resumption of production, driving raw material demand; Hebei Iron and Steel's January tender quantity increased significantly compared to December [5] - Cost: Main production area electricity prices were stable recently [5] - Outlook: Supply - demand has marginal improvement momentum, short - term oscillatory and bullish [5] Silicomanganese - Supply: Some new production capacities were put into operation at the end of the year, supply increased slightly [5] - Demand: Short - term rebar is in a production reduction cycle, blast furnaces are expected to have phased resumption of production in January, supporting raw material demand [5] - Cost: Manganese ore port inventory remained low, port spot prices were firm [5] - Outlook: Driven by cost, short - term oscillatory and bullish [5] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Expectations of marginal improvement in supply - demand and cost push, short - term oscillatory and bullish [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [6] Group 5: Important Information - On January 5, Tianjin Port's semi - carbonate Mn36.8% was quoted at 35.5 yuan/ton degree, Australian lump Mn41.6% at 42 yuan/ton degree, Gabon Mn45% at 43 yuan/ton degree, and Australian lump Mn47% at 44 yuan/ton degree [7] - A steel mill in Jiangxi finalized the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon at 5820 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 700 tons [8] Group 6: Related Graphs - Figures 1 - 15 show various data such as ferrous alloy main contract trends, month - to - month spreads, basis, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits [9][11][13][15][17][18][20][21][23][26]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Galaxy Futures Oil Daily Report - Report Date: January 5, 2026 - Report Type: Agricultural Product Research Report [1][2] Group 2: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - **Soybean Oil**: The 2605 closing price was 7,856 with a decrease of 6. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8,376, 8,416, and 8,266 respectively. Basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 560 (unchanged), 520 (unchanged), and 410 (up 10) [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The 2605 closing price was 8,488 with a decrease of 96. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8,458, 8,478, and 8,608 respectively. Basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were -30 (unchanged), -10 (unchanged), and 120 (unchanged) [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The 2605 closing price was 9,044 with a decrease of 43. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi were 9,794 and 9,994 respectively. Basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi were 750 (down 50) and 950 (unchanged) [2]. Monthly Spreads - **Soybean Oil 5 - 9**: The closing price was 126 with a decrease of 4. - **Palm Oil 5 - 9**: The closing price was 112 with a decrease of 10. - **Rapeseed Oil 5 - 9**: The closing price was 35 with a decrease of 24 [2]. Cross - Variety Spreads - **Y - P (05 contract)**: The spread was -632 with an increase of 90. - **OI - Y (05 contract)**: The spread was 1,188 with a decrease of 37. - **OI - P (05 contract)**: The spread was 556 with an increase of 53. - **Oil - Meal Ratio**: The ratio was 2.85 with a decrease of 0.01 [2]. Import Profits - **24 - degree Palm Oil (Malaysia & Indonesia)**: The CNF price was 1,045 for a 2 - month ship - ment, with a negative profit of 233. - **Rapeseed Oil (Rotterdam)**: The FOB price was 1,030 for a 1 - month ship - ment, with a negative profit of 1,193 [2]. Weekly Commercial Inventories (in 10,000 tons, Week 52, 2025) - **Soybean Oil**: This week's inventory was 108.9, last week was 112.4, and last year was 93.3. - **Palm Oil**: This week's inventory was 73.4, last week was 70.0, and last year was 50.2. - **Rapeseed Oil**: This week's inventory was 29.1, last week was 30.8, and last year was 48.4 [2] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December is expected to reach a nearly seven - year high. The median estimate of 10 traders, planters, and analysts indicates a 4.7% month - on - month increase to 2.97 million tons. Production is expected to be 1.76 million tons, down 9% from the previous month, and exports are expected to grow 2.8% to 1.25 million tons [4] Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: Futures prices closed down more than 1%. As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory in key regions was 72.67 million tons, a 1.01% decrease from last week. It is at a slightly above - average level in the historical range. Import profit inversion has narrowed, and there are reports of three near - month purchases. The basis is stable. It lacks a clear driver, and a "sell on rallies" strategy is recommended [4][5] - **Soybean Oil**: Futures prices closed slightly down. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 175,330 tons, with an operating rate of 48.23%. As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory in key regions was 1.081 million tons, a 0.73% decrease from last week. It is at a high level in the historical range, but the inventory has reached an inflection point. The basis is stable with a slight decline. The market is quiet, and some mills have stopped due to lack of soybeans. Supply is sufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [5] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Futures prices closed slightly down. Last week, the crushing volume in coastal regions was 0 tons, and the operating rate was 0%. As of January 2, 2026, the coastal inventory was 273,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons. It is at a high level in the historical range but is continuously decreasing. The FOB price in Europe is stable at around $1,050, and the import profit inversion has widened to around - 1,200. The basis is stable with a slight decline, and the market is quiet. Policy has a significant impact, and the price is still strongly supported [6] Group 4: Trading Strategies Unilateral - Short - term, oils are expected to fluctuate with increased volatility. Palm oil should be sold on rallies, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend of the oil market due to lack of drivers [8] Arbitrage - Hold a wait - and - see attitude [9] Options - Hold a wait - and - see attitude [10] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes 8 figures showing various indicators such as spot basis, monthly spreads, cross - variety spreads of different oils from 2017 - 2026 [13][14][19][23]

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2026 年 1 月 5 日 | 第一部分 | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2026/1/5 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | 7922 | -36 | -0.45% | 27,522 | -42.31% | 30,347 | 10.94% | | PK510 | 8228 | 2 | 0.02% | 218 | 28.24% | 1,628 | 7.39% | | PK601 | 7800 | -270 | -3.46% | 3,992 | -43.45% | 2,605 | -52.04% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 | | 今日报价 | 7600 | 860 ...

Group 1: Market Data Futures Market - EC2602 closed at 1855.5 points on January 5, up 3.01% from the previous day's closing price. The trading volume was 22,903.0 lots, up 6.50%, and the open interest was 26,046.0 lots, up 7.94% [4]. - EC2604 closed at 1,198.0 points, up 2.74%. The trading volume was 8,562.0 lots, up 89.97%, and the open interest was 22,629.0 lots, up 8.17% [4]. - EC2606 closed at 1,389.0 points, up 1.54%. The trading volume was 500.0 lots, up 20.77%, and the open interest was 2,201.0 lots, up 2.28% [4]. - EC2608 closed at 1,502.3 points, up 0.15%. The trading volume was 127.0 lots, up 95.38%, and the open interest was 1,188.0 lots, down 0.59% [4]. - EC2610 closed at 1,082.6 points, up 2.13%. The trading volume was 948 lots, up 197.18%, and the open interest was 6,055 lots, up 0.51% [4]. - EC2612 closed at 1,311.9 points, up 1.15%. The trading volume was 21 lots, up 61.54%, and the open interest was 48 lots, down 17.24% [4]. Spread Structure - The spread between EC02 - EC04 was 658, up 22.2; EC02 - EC06 was 467, up 33.1; EC04 - EC06 was -191, up 10.9; EC02 - EC08 was 353, up 51.9; EC04 - EC08 was -304, up 29.7; EC04 - EC10 was 115, up 9.4; EC06 - EC08 was -113, up 18.8; EC08 - EC10 was 420, down 20.3 [4]. Container Freight Rates - SCFIS European Line Index was 1795.83 points, up 3.05% week - on - week and down 46.99% year - on - year. SCFIS US West Line Index was 1250.12 points, down 3.94% week - on - week and down 55.71% year - on - year [4]. - SCFI Composite Index was 1656.32 points, up 6.66% week - on - week and down 30.70% year - on - year. SCFI Shanghai - West Africa was 3201 USD/TEU, up 6.57% week - on - week and down 29.21% year - on - year [4]. - SCFI Shanghai - US West was 2188 USD/FEU, up 9.84% week - on - week and down 47.88% year - on - year. SCFI Shanghai - South Africa was 2356 USD/TEU, down 1.14% week - on - week and down 32.90% year - on - year [4]. Fuel Costs - WTI crude oil near - month price was 57.31 dollars/barrel, down 0.81% week - on - week and down 20.93% year - on - year. Brent crude oil near - month price was 60.55 dollars/barrel, down 1.19% week - on - week and down 19.8% year - on - year [4]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Market Analysis - The market has differences on the January freight rate peak and subsequent price adjustment rhythm, and the futures market maintains high - level volatility. On January 5, EC2602 closed at 1855.5 points, up 3.01%. On December 26, the SCFI European Line quoted 1690 USD/TEU, up 10.24% week - on - week. The latest SCFIS European Line Index released by Shanghai Shipping Exchange was 1795.83 points, up 3% week - on - week, slightly lower than expected due to the delay and skipping of four low - price ships in week 52 [6]. Logic Analysis - In terms of spot freight rates, MSK's Shanghai - Rotterdam in week 3 was 2700 USD/HC, and Shanghai - Hamburg was 2800/HC, up about 100 USD week - on - week. OOCL's January first - half quote was around 2700 - 2900, COSCO/CMA's offline quote in January first - half was around 3000, EMC's was 2900 - 2950, YML's offline quote in January first - half was 2650, and 2400 with open volume, ONE's online/offline quote in January first - half was 2800, and 3300 online in the second half, HMM's offline quote in the second week of January was 2600, MSC's online/offline quote in January first - half was 2840, and 3140 in the second half [7]. - In terms of fundamentals, the demand from December to January is expected to gradually improve. On January 5, 2026, the average weekly capacity from Shanghai to 5 Nordic ports in January/February/March was 30.74/27.59/28.33 million TEU. Compared with the previous period (December 29), the capacity in January and February decreased slightly. There were 3 additional ship suspensions and 2 additional ships in January, and 2 additional blank sailings and some ship delays in February [7]. - Geopolitically, the US strike on Venezuela has caused short - term sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices and concerns about long - term energy supply chain restructuring. It may increase fuel costs in the short term and put pressure on oil prices in the long term, also affecting the trade pattern. Currently, the conflict has little impact on container shipping routes, but the subsequent scale and scope of the conflict need attention [7]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Maintain a high - level volatile view. Most long positions in the EC2602 contract should take profit at high levels, and the remaining light positions can be held depending on the situation. Pay attention to the strength of the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak. The far - month contracts are expected to be suppressed by the resumption of shipping expectations [8]. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [9]. Group 3: Industry News - On January 3, US President Trump ordered strikes on targets in Venezuela, including military facilities [12]. - Trump postponed the new round of tariff increase measures on soft furniture, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom vanity cabinets by one year to 2027. These tariffs were originally scheduled to take effect last Thursday [12]. Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as SCFIS European Line Index and SCFIS US West Line Index, SCFI Composite Index, and container freight rates for different routes [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various sectors including agriculture, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. Geopolitical events such as the US attack on Venezuela have significant impacts on commodity prices, and different sectors show diverse trends and investment opportunities based on their own fundamentals and market conditions [19][108]. - In the financial derivatives market, A - shares are expected to operate around the theme of a technology - powered nation, but risks such as over - opening and geopolitical factors need attention. The bond market may see sentiment repair after the implementation of new regulations, but the scope of repair is limited [19][23]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Investment Logic**: A - shares showed a slow - bull trend at the end of 2025, with the PMI data above 50 adding market confidence. The potential listing of large companies is beneficial to the industrial chain. After the holiday, Hong Kong stocks rose, and A - shares are expected to focus on the technology - related sectors. Attention should be paid to risks such as over - opening, geopolitical issues, and institutional position adjustments [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be to buy on dips as the market is expected to rise; for arbitrage, wait for the spread of IM/IC to widen; for options, use a bull spread strategy [20]. 3.1.2 Treasury Futures - **Investment Logic**: The bond market was weak before the holiday. The new regulations on public - offering funds may repair the bond market sentiment, but the positive signals from the PMI data are negative for the bond market. The repair space of the bond market is limited due to factors such as strong fundamental expectations and supply - demand concerns for long - term bonds [21][22][23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, close short positions of TS and TF contracts on dips; for arbitrage, wait and see [23]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Protein Meal - **Logic Analysis**: International soybean cost faces pressure, especially with the improved weather in South America. Domestic soybean supply may decline, and the spot price may be supported. It is expected to oscillate [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate; for arbitrage, narrow the MRM spread; for options, sell a wide - straddle strategy [26]. 3.2.2 Sugar - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, the supply pressure of Brazilian sugar will ease, and the market focuses on the northern hemisphere. The domestic sugar price is at a low level, with cost support and potential upward drive from the external market, but there is sales pressure during the peak crushing season [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, the international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate. Wait and see for arbitrage and sell put options [32]. 3.2.3 Oilseeds and Oils - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical events may affect the oil market. The production of Malaysian palm oil in December is expected to decrease, but the inventory is high. Domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and rapeseed oil is affected by policies. The overall oil market lacks a clear driver [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, the oil market oscillates with increased volatility. For palm oil, short after a rebound; for soybean oil, follow the overall trend. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. 3.2.4 Corn/Corn Starch - **Logic Analysis**: US corn is weak but may oscillate narrowly. In China, the supply in the Northeast is low with strong prices, while the supply in North China is increasing with weak prices. Wheat auctions may affect the corn market [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, the 03 - contract corn oscillates at the bottom and can be bought on dips, and the 07 - contract corn can be bought on dips. For arbitrage, narrow the spread between 03 - contract corn and starch; wait and see for options [38]. 3.2.5 Live Pigs - **Logic Analysis**: Pig prices have declined recently due to increased supply. The overall inventory is high, and there is still supply pressure [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, short positions can be taken; wait and see for arbitrage and sell a wide - straddle strategy for options [40]. 3.2.6 Peanuts - **Logic Analysis**: Peanut spot prices are stable, with a large price difference between Henan and the Northeast. The import volume has decreased, and the oil mill has profits. The 03 - contract peanut oscillates at the bottom [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, the 05 - contract peanut oscillates at the bottom and can be bought on dips; wait and see for arbitrage and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [42]. 3.2.7 Eggs - **Logic Analysis**: Egg demand is average, and prices are stable with a slight decline. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the near - month contract may oscillate weakly, while the far - month May contract can be considered for long positions on dips [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, the February contract is expected to oscillate, and the May contract can be bought on dips; wait and see for arbitrage and options [47]. 3.2.8 Apples - **Logic Analysis**: Apple production has decreased, and the cold - storage inventory is low. However, the market demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate in the short term; for arbitrage, go long on the May contract and short on the October contract; wait and see for options [50]. 3.2.9 Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Logic Analysis**: The planting area of Xinjiang cotton is expected to decrease, and the sales progress is fast. The improvement of Sino - US relations and the expansion of textile mills' capacity in Xinjiang support the cotton price. The market is bullish, but there may be short - term corrections [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, US cotton is expected to oscillate, and Chinese cotton is expected to rise slightly; wait and see for arbitrage and options [53]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - **Logic Analysis**: Steel raw materials are continuously restocked, and steel prices oscillate within a range. Steel production has increased, and inventory is decreasing. The demand for building materials is affected by the season, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is still growing. The export may decline in the short term [55]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate; for arbitrage, narrow the spread between hot - rolled coils and coking coal and between 03 - contract corn and starch; wait and see for options [56]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Logic Analysis**: The contradiction in coking coal is not prominent, and the driving force is not obvious. The import of Mongolian coal may decrease in January, and the production of domestic coal will have seasonal fluctuations. The downstream winter - storage replenishment supports the price, but the upward driving force is insufficient [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, wait and see or go long on dips with a light position; wait and see for arbitrage and options [58]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - **Logic Analysis**: The global iron ore shipment is stable, and the supply in China is abundant. The domestic demand for steel is declining, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [60]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate; wait and see for arbitrage and options [63]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Logic Analysis**: For ferrosilicon, the supply is decreasing slightly, the demand is expected to increase after the blast - furnace restart, and the cost is stable. For ferromanganese, the supply is stable, the demand is supported by the blast - furnace restart, and the cost is strong. Both are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [63][64]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate strongly in the short term; wait and see for arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options for options [64]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - **Logic Analysis**: During the holiday, the US macro data and margin adjustments put pressure on gold and silver, but geopolitical issues increase the safe - haven demand, and they may oscillate strongly at a high level [67]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, go long on SHFE gold and silver cautiously if they break through the 5 - day moving average; wait and see for arbitrage and options [69]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical events may cause fluctuations in platinum and palladium. The fundamentals of platinum are tight, and it can be considered for long positions. Palladium may follow platinum. The domestic premium has shrunk, and attention should be paid to the rebound after over - selling [70][71]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, go long on platinum and palladium on dips based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, go long on platinum and short on palladium; wait and see for options [72]. 3.4.3 Copper - **Logic Analysis**: The US attack on Venezuela may slightly boost the copper price. The copper price has risen rapidly, leading to a decline in consumption and inventory accumulation. The long - term trend is upward, and it can be bought on dips [74]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, buy on dips; wait and see for arbitrage and options [74]. 3.4.4 Alumina - **Logic Analysis**: The profit of alumina warehouse - receipt registration has converged, and it is expected to oscillate. The futures "reservoir" function has been reflected, and attention should be paid to the digestion of warehouse receipts [77]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate in the short term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [78]. 3.4.5 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Logic Analysis**: The global shortage of aluminum and the domestic subsidy policy support the aluminum price. The domestic spot discount is large, and inventory may increase. It is recommended to go long on dips [79][80]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, go long on dips; for arbitrage, consider buying physical delivery products and shorting futures; wait and see for options [80]. 3.4.6 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Logic Analysis**: The 2026 subsidy policy is better than expected. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost supports the price. The demand is weak, and the trading is light [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate strongly with the sector; wait and see for arbitrage and options [82]. 3.4.7 Zinc - **Logic Analysis**: The shortage of domestic zinc ore is partially relieved, the smelting profit is good, and the supply may increase slightly. The downstream consumption is weak but has resilience. The price is expected to oscillate with the non - ferrous metal sector [84][85]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate widely; wait and see for arbitrage and options [86]. 3.4.8 Lead - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lead is weak due to the shortage of lead ore and recycled lead raw materials. The demand has resilience, and the inventory is low. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [87]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, go long on dips; wait and see for arbitrage and options [91]. 3.4.9 Nickel - **Logic Analysis**: The expectation of quota reduction in Indonesia may boost the nickel price, but the US attack on Venezuela may be negative for the non - ferrous metal sector. The price may rise before significant inventory accumulation [92]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, consider the upward trend before significant inventory accumulation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [93]. 3.4.10 Stainless Steel - **Logic Analysis**: The expectation of nickel - ore quota reduction and tight hot - rolled resources support the stainless - steel price. The inventory is decreasing, but the export may be affected by the EU's CBAM policy. The price follows the nickel price but has limited upward drive [94]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, follow the nickel price; wait and see for arbitrage [95]. 3.4.11 Industrial Silicon - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for industrial silicon is in the off - season, and the supply is slightly reduced. The short - term price is strong, but the medium - term price may decline [98]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, sell on rallies; for arbitrage, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon; sell out - of - the - money call options for options [98]. 3.4.12 Polysilicon - **Logic Analysis**: The photovoltaic industry's self - discipline and production control support the long - term price of polysilicon. The short - term futures trading volume is low, and attention should be paid to risk management [99]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, participate cautiously and control risks; for arbitrage, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon; sell put options for options [99]. 3.4.13 Lithium Carbonate - **Logic Analysis**: The price of lithium carbonate is at a high level. The US attack on Venezuela may affect the market, and the supply and demand are relatively balanced. Attention should be paid to risk control [100][101]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, operate cautiously and control positions; wait and see for arbitrage and options [102]. 3.4.14 Tin - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical turmoil may increase the volatility of the tin price. The domestic supply is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate widely [104]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, the price may oscillate widely after a significant decline; wait and see for options [104]. 3.5 Shipping 3.5.1 Container Shipping - **Logic Analysis**: Some shipping companies plan to raise prices in mid - January. The market has different views on the price peak and adjustment rhythm. The demand is expected to improve, and the supply will change. The US attack on Venezuela may affect fuel costs and trade patterns [105]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, close most long positions of the EC2602 contract on rallies and hold a small position; wait and see for arbitrage [106]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical events in Venezuela increase the supply - side disturbance of crude oil. The short - term supply may be affected, but the long - term supply may increase. The price is expected to oscillate widely [109]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate widely; for arbitrage, gasoline is strong, diesel is weak, and the crude - oil time - spread rebounds; wait and see for options [109]. 3.6.2 Asphalt - **Logic Analysis**: The US capture of Maduro has increased the risk of raw - material supply disruption. In the short term, the near - month contract may be strong, and in the long term, the cost may rise [112]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, it may open higher on Monday, but be cautious about chasing the rise; wait and see for arbitrage and options [113]. 3.6.3 Fuel Oil - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical events may drive up the price of fuel oil in the short term. The high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter, and the low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to increase [114][115]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate strongly in the short term, be cautious about geopolitical risks; for arbitrage, consider the FU59 positive spread; wait and see for options [116]. 3.6.4 Natural Gas - **Logic Analysis**: The cold weather in Europe supports the price in the short term, but the long - term trend is downward. The temperature in the US is expected to rise, and the HH price may decline [118]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, sell Q3 JKM/TTF contracts; wait and see for arbitrage and options [118]. 3.6.5 LPG - **Logic Analysis**: The increase in Saudi CP prices supports the domestic LPG price, but the high import price and high inventory pressure may limit the upward space [120]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, go short on the far - month contract; wait and see for arbitrage and options [122]. 3.6.6 PX & PTA - **Logic Analysis**: The cost of PX and PTA has increased, and the production reduction of polyester yarn is gradually implemented. The supply and demand of PTA have improved marginally, but the upward drive may weaken [123][124]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate strongly; for arbitrage, consider the positive spread of PX & PTA 3 and 5 contracts; wait and see for options [124]. 3.6.7 BZ

1. Report Date - The report is dated December 31, 2025 [2] 2. Treasury Bond Futures Transaction Summary 2.1 Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - T2603: Closing price 107.86, down 0.07%; volume 93,519, up 30%; turnover 100.8 billion, up 30%; open interest 223,646, down 6,646; margin 4.82 billion [3] - T2606: Closing price 107.88, down 0.06%; volume 5,005, up 17%; turnover 5.4 billion, up 17%; open interest 11,156, up 124; margin 240 million [3] - T2609: Closing price 107.74, down 0.08%; volume 548, down 4%; turnover 600 million, down 4%; open interest 1,317, up 156; margin 30 million [3] - Total: Volume 99,072, up 29%; turnover 106.8 billion, up 29%; open interest 236,119, down 6,366; margin 5.09 billion [3] 2.2 Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - TF2603: Closing price 105.76, down 0.04%; volume 66,075, down 3%; turnover 69.9 billion, down 3%; open interest 147,910, up 595; margin 1.88 billion [3] - TF2606: Closing price 105.75, down 0.04%; volume 5,300, up 79%; turnover 5.6 billion, up 79%; open interest 15,693, up 575; margin 200 million [3] - TF2609: Closing price 105.62, down 0.03%; volume 72, up 3%; turnover 100 million, up 3%; open interest 1,757, up 26; margin 20 million [3] - Total: Volume 71,447, up 1%; turnover 75.5 billion, up 1%; open interest 165,360, up 1,196; margin 2.1 billion [3] 2.3 Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - TL2603: Closing price 111.41, down 0.35%; volume 117,690, up 41%; turnover 130.9 billion, up 41%; open interest 142,077, up 998; margin 5.54 billion [3] - TL2606: Closing price 111.63, down 0.37%; volume 10,496, up 56%; turnover 11.7 billion, up 55%; open interest 25,486, up 676; margin 1 billion [3] - TL2609: Closing price 111.40, down 0.33%; volume 472, up 387%; turnover 500 million, up 384%; open interest 1,202, up 71; margin 50 million [3] - Total: Volume 128,658, up 43%; turnover 143.1 billion, up 42%; open interest 168,765, up 1,745; margin 6.58 billion [3] 2.4 Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - TS2603: Closing price 102.45, down 0.03%; volume 39,159, down 5%; turnover 80.2 billion, down 5%; open interest 74,199, down 1,931; margin 760 million [3] - TS2606: Closing price 102.49, down 0.03%; volume 472, up 278%; turnover 1 billion, up 277%; open interest 2,687, up 20; margin 30 million [3] - TS2609: Closing price 102.50, down 0.04%; volume 525, up 108%; turnover 1.1 billion, up 107%; open interest 741, up 50; margin 10 million [3] - Total: Volume 40,156, down 4%; turnover 82.3 billion, down 4%; open interest 77,627, down 1,861; margin 800 million [3] 3. Treasury Bond Futures Net Open Interest - There are charts showing the net open interest of ten - year, five - year, thirty - year, and two - year Treasury bond futures for different periods, including the top five, top ten, and top twenty positions [5] 4. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures Position Details 4.1 T2603 Contract - In terms of trading volume, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 40,023 and an increase of 6,509, Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 28,884 and an increase of 10,130, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 16,495 and an increase of 1,894 [8] - For long positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 50,890, Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 31,057 and a decrease of 296, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 29,996 and a decrease of 1,855 [8] - For short positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 34,251 and a decrease of 10, Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 25,216 and a decrease of 4,858, and China Merchants Futures (on behalf of clients) with 19,256 and a decrease of 61 [8] 4.2 T2606 Contract - In terms of trading volume, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 3,572 and an increase of 1,084, Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients) with 998 and an increase of 177, and Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 988 and a decrease of 667 [10] - For long positions, the top three are Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 3,419, Galaxy Futures (on behalf of clients) with 1,246, and Hongyuan Futures (on behalf of clients) with 891 [10] - For short positions, the top three are Galaxy Futures (on behalf of clients) with 2,641 and an increase of 27, Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 1,430, and GF Futures (on behalf of clients) with 1,048 and a decrease of 48 [10] 5. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures Position Details 5.1 TF2603 Contract - In terms of trading volume, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 24,885 and a decrease of 730, Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 23,092 and an increase of 2,721, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 10,895 and a decrease of 5,128 [12] - For long positions, the top three are Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 32,897 and an increase of 4,887, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 27,254 and a decrease of 123, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 9,872 and a decrease of 772 [12] - For short positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 25,676 and an increase of 350, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 16,413 and an increase of 331, and Ping An Futures (on behalf of clients) with 13,685 and a decrease of 477 [12] 5.2 TF2606 Contract - In terms of trading volume, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 2,049 and an increase of 946, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 1,583 and an increase of 1,275, and Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 1,506 and an increase of 159 [14] - For long positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 4,269 and a decrease of 342, Xingzheng Futures (on behalf of clients) with 1,784, and Galaxy Futures (on behalf of clients) with 1,382 and an increase of 105 [14] - For short positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 3,119 and an increase of 1, Huatai Futures (on behalf of clients) with 2,348, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 2,318 and an increase of 1,000 [14] 6. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures Position Details 6.1 TL2603 Contract - In terms of trading volume, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 39,632 and an increase of 11,428, Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 24,643 and an increase of 6,198, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 19,077 and an increase of 5,014 [15] - For long positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 16,270 and an increase of 588, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 16,201 and a decrease of 453, and Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 12,796 and an increase of 139 [15] - For short positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 17,400 and a decrease of 462, Galaxy Futures (on behalf of clients) with 13,711 and an increase of 25, and Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 13,473 and a decrease of 1,462 [15] 6.2 TL2606 Contract - In terms of trading volume, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 3,816 and a decrease of 105, Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients) with 2,629 and an increase of 691, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 2,626 and an increase of 910 [18] - For long positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 8,197, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 2,398, and Galaxy Futures (on behalf of clients) with 2,258 [18] - For short positions, the top three are Galaxy Futures (on behalf of clients) with 4,951 and an increase of 136, Guojin Futures (on behalf of clients) with 2,944 and a decrease of 94, and Huatai Futures (on behalf of clients) with 2,559 and an increase of 240 [18] 7. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures Position Details 7.1 TS2603 Contract - In terms of trading volume, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 17,261 and an increase of 1,419, Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 11,976 and an increase of 896, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 5,834 and a decrease of 4,549 [19] - For long positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 13,550, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 6,297 and a decrease of 21, and CITIC Construction Investment (on behalf of clients) with 6,233 and an increase of 45 [19] - For short positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 19,436 and a decrease of 1,243, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 10,833 and an increase of 475, and GF Futures (on behalf of clients) with 8,703 and an increase of 27 [19] 7.2 TS2606 Contract - All trading volume, long - position, and short - position data are 0 [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, domestic photovoltaic projects will face dual pressures of increased costs and declining electricity prices, with a projected over 20% year - on - year decline in newly - added photovoltaic installations to around 240GW. In the US, due to the "Big and Beautiful Act" and tariff barriers, newly - added photovoltaic installations are expected to decline year - on - year in 2026. In Europe, with subsidy reduction and power consumption capacity constraints, newly - added photovoltaic installations may decline to around 67GW in 2026. Emerging markets such as India and Brazil will continue to contribute to the global photovoltaic growth. The global newly - added photovoltaic installation in 2026 is expected to be 540GW, with a global component demand of about 600GW and a Chinese silicon wafer demand of around 600GW. On the supply side, under the continuous advancement of anti - involution and industry self - discipline, polysilicon production will be controlled within 1.05 million tons in 2026, with the entire industry's supply at 1.35 million tons. The price of polysilicon is likely to have a higher price center in 2026, and the price is expected to be between 45,000 and 75,000 yuan/ton [4][45]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Preface Summary Supply - demand Outlook - In 2026, domestic photovoltaic projects face cost increases and electricity price declines, with domestic newly - added photovoltaic installations expected to decline by over 20% to around 240GW. In the US, the "Big and Beautiful Act" and tariff barriers will lead to a decline in newly - added photovoltaic installations. In Europe, subsidy reduction and power consumption capacity constraints will cause newly - added installations to decline to around 67GW. Emerging markets will contribute to global photovoltaic growth. The global newly - added photovoltaic installation will be 540GW, with a component demand of about 600GW and a Chinese silicon wafer demand of around 600GW. Supply - side, polysilicon production will be controlled within 1.05 million tons, and the entire industry's supply will be 1.35 million tons [4]. Trading Logic - In 2026, the terminal demand for polysilicon is likely to decline. Under the guidance of "anti - involution" and industry self - discipline, polysilicon enterprises will sell according to demand, which will raise the price center in 2026. Constrained by the price law and anti - unfair competition law, the polysilicon price is difficult to fall below 45,000 yuan/ton. If the component price rises to 0.8 yuan/W in 2025, the high - end price of polysilicon in 2026 can be referred to as 75,000 yuan/ton under the extreme assumption of profit transfer to silicon materials. The polysilicon futures price will be generally strong in 2026, and a long - biased approach is recommended [5]. Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: With the price center rising, take a long - biased approach, with the price range referring to (45,000, 75,000). - Arbitrage: As anti - involution in the polysilicon industry continues to advance and production is bound to decrease, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [7]. 2. Fundamental Situation Market Review - In December 2024, the photovoltaic industry association organized self - discipline among enterprises in the entire industry chain. Downstream crystal - pulling factories started a new round of inventory replenishment, and the spot price of polysilicon increased. In January, the polysilicon futures price was volatile and strong, once breaking through 45,000 yuan/ton. After Document No. 136, terminal installation rush accelerated, but due to high polysilicon inventory, the spot price was difficult to rise, and the futures price was volatile. After April, the installation rush subsided, and the component price faced pressure. First - tier polysilicon enterprises considered price cuts to reduce inventory, and the futures price dropped significantly. From May to June, the terminal demand declined after the installation rush subsided, and the prices in the entire industry chain fell, with the futures price breaking below the industry's cash - cost line. After July, the polysilicon industry started "anti - involution" and capacity integration. With the expectations of "sales at no less than cost" and "capacity storage", funds entered the market, pushing up the futures price. After September, the futures price rose above 50,000 yuan/ton. Due to slow progress in capacity integration, the futures valuation was difficult to give a higher premium, and the market was volatile. In December, the small number of trading warehouse receipts of polysilicon futures and the establishment of platform companies led to a volatile increase in price, breaking through 60,000 yuan/ton [9]. Demand - **Domestic Terminal Demand**: In 2026, the Chinese photovoltaic market will be squeezed by electricity price decline and cost increase. In 2025, the newly - added photovoltaic installation was expected to reach 300GW, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. In 2026, the newly - added centralized photovoltaic installation may decline by more than 60GW year - on - year, and in the best - case scenario, the newly - added distributed photovoltaic installation will not increase year - on - year. Overall, the newly - added photovoltaic installation in 2026 is expected to be in the range of 230 - 240GW, a decline of over 20% year - on - year [13][14]. - **Overseas Terminal Demand**: In 2026, the US photovoltaic market will be affected by policy changes, and the newly - added photovoltaic installation is expected to decline to around 35GW. In Europe, due to economic pressure and power consumption capacity constraints, the newly - added photovoltaic installation is expected to decline by 5% year - on - year to 65 - 67GW. Emerging markets represented by India will contribute to the global newly - added photovoltaic installation demand [20][21]. - **Silicon Wafer, Battery, and Component Industries**: In 2026, the export volume of photovoltaic components may remain unchanged year - on - year, while the export volume of photovoltaic batteries will increase year - on - year. The production schedules of domestic silicon wafers, batteries, and components in 2026 will be adjusted downward year - on - year. The demand for polysilicon in 2026 is expected to decline to around 1.08 - 1.1 million tons [25][26]. Supply - The "Polysilicon Capacity Integration and Acquisition Platform" has been officially established, but in 2026, the scale of acquired capacity is about 400,000 tons, which has limited impact on actual supply. There is a market rumor that polysilicon enterprises reached a self - discipline initiative at the Xi'an Photovoltaic Annual Conference, aiming to control the total supply within 1 million tons in 2026. Even if the initiative is not effectively implemented, the core goal of polysilicon enterprises is to reduce inventory and maintain cash flow. It is expected that after February 2026, polysilicon enterprises will promote production - reduction plans, and the production in February will be reduced to below 90,000 tons [37][38]. Inventory - Currently, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises is close to 300,000 tons, the non - standard inventory of middle - stream futures and spot traders is 15,000 - 20,000 tons, and the new and old warehouse receipts are about 27,000 tons. The downstream inventory is about 150,000 tons. In 2026, under the background of demand - based sales, the total inventory of the polysilicon industry is expected to decline slightly [41]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation Fundamental Outlook - Similar to the supply - demand outlook in the preface summary, in 2026, the domestic newly - added photovoltaic installation will decline, the overseas market will have different trends, and the polysilicon supply will be controlled within 1.05 million tons [45]. Trading Logic Analysis - Similar to the trading logic in the preface summary, the terminal demand for polysilicon is likely to decline in 2026. Anti - involution and industry self - discipline will raise the price center, with the price difficult to fall below 45,000 yuan/ton and the high - end price referring to 75,000 yuan/ton [46]. Operation Strategy - Unilateral: Buy on dips. - Arbitrage: As anti - involution in the polysilicon industry continues and production decreases, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - If the polysilicon industry's self - discipline is perfectly executed, the demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream sectors and exports will decline by 5.61% year - on - year to 4 million and 50 thousand tons in 2026. Without supply - side policies, the over - capacity pattern of industrial silicon remains unchanged, and the supply in 2026 will remain loose, with an expected output of about 4 million and 10 thousand tons. The inventory structure will play a stronger role in determining the price of industrial silicon. The cost of industrial silicon in 2026 is expected to change little compared with 2025 [4][54]. - In 2026, the industrial silicon futures will be mainly priced based on cost, with the price range mainly considering the cost in the northwest and the marginal cost of high - cost enterprises in the southwest during the wet season, referring to (7,400, 10,000). The price of industrial silicon futures is expected to fall first and then rise throughout the year. If supply - side policies are introduced, the price of industrial silicon will experience a large - scale unilateral increase [5][54]. Summary by Directory Part One: Preface Summary Supply - Demand Outlook - If the polysilicon industry's self - discipline is perfectly executed, the demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream sectors and exports will decline by 5.61% year - on - year to 405 tons in 2026. Without supply - side policies, the over - capacity pattern remains unchanged, and the supply in 2026 will remain loose, with an expected output of about 410 tons. The total inventory of the industrial silicon industry is expected to maintain at 1 million tons, and the inventory structure will have a stronger influence on the price. The cost of industrial silicon in 2026 is expected to change little compared with 2025 [4]. Trading Logic - In 2026, the industrial silicon futures will be mainly priced based on cost, with the price range referring to (7,400, 10,000). After the futures price rises in December 2025, silicon plants in the northwest may conduct a new round of hedging and maintain a high operating rate in the first quarter of 2026. With the weakening demand in the first quarter of 2026, the futures price may decline. After the second quarter, attention should be paid to the changes in the cost side and downstream demand. The price of industrial silicon futures is expected to fall first and then rise throughout the year. If supply - side policies are introduced, the price of industrial silicon will have a large - scale unilateral increase [5]. Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: There may be a decline in the first quarter. After the second quarter, pay attention to the inventory structure and cost changes. Operate within the annual price range of (7,400, 10,000). - Arbitrage: Go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon. - Spot - futures: The leading effect of spot - futures business is becoming more obvious. Moderately compress the unit profit expectation. Consider scale priority and channel protection while controlling risks [6]. Part Two: Fundamental Situation Market Review - January - June 2025: High inventory and cost collapse led to a unilateral decline. In January, industrial silicon enterprises reduced production, but downstream replenishment demand was weak, resulting in inventory accumulation. After February, organic silicon enterprises jointly reduced production, and polysilicon demand was weak. In March, although some enterprises planned to reduce production, new production capacity increased marginal supply. From April to May, Sino - US tariff frictions, the collapse of polysilicon and organic silicon prices, and the decline of coking coal prices led to cost collapse. The futures price was priced according to the cash cost of northwest manufacturers, and the lowest price in early June was below 7,000 yuan/ton [9]. - June - August 2025: The recovery of demand and the increase in cost driven by the strengthening of coal prices led to a rebound in the futures price. In early June, the futures price reached the cash cost line of self - supplied power plants in the northwest, and the basis strengthened. After the rebound of coking coal prices, short - selling funds took profits and left the market. In late June, the expectation of "anti - involution" increased, and the prices of polysilicon and coking coal futures strengthened. In July, the price of polysilicon futures continued to rise, and the increase in coal prices further pushed up the cost. After the price soared, silicon plants conducted intensive hedging. In August, although the demand for polysilicon was strong, the market was still in an over - supply state, and the futures price followed the decline of coking coal prices [10]. - September - December 2025: There was no prominent contradiction in the fundamentals, and the market was priced based on cost, showing a volatile trend. Since September, industrial silicon inventory has increased slightly, but the inventory is mainly concentrated in the hands of traders, and the market is difficult to form a positive or negative cash - futures cycle. The market trend is similar to that of coking coal [11]. Demand - In 2026, the demand growth rate of organic silicon for industrial silicon will slow down. The traditional construction industry has been in a downturn since 2022, and the photovoltaic industry has also entered a downturn since 2025. The new energy vehicle industry is expected to maintain its prosperity in 2026, but the subsidy decline may lead to a slowdown in demand growth. The overseas photovoltaic component production capacity is increasing, and the export of domestic photovoltaic components is difficult to increase year - on - year. The production process improvement of organic silicon enterprises will also reduce the demand for industrial silicon [18][19]. - In 2026, the demand for industrial silicon from polysilicon will decrease by 20% year - on - year. If the self - discipline initiative of polysilicon enterprises is effectively implemented, the production of polysilicon in 2026 will be limited to within 1.05 million tons. Even if the initiative is not effectively implemented, polysilicon enterprises will focus on inventory reduction and cash flow maintenance, which will lead to a reduction in demand for industrial silicon [25]. - The demand growth rate of aluminum alloy is stable, but exports are under pressure. The total demand for aluminum alloy may maintain an increasing trend, with an expected growth rate of about 5%. The export of industrial silicon has decreased year - on - year in 2025, and the export regulations have become more stringent since October. The overseas market space may be compressed in 2026, and it is optimistically expected that the export volume will not increase year - on - year [26][28]. - Overall, if the polysilicon industry's self - discipline is strictly implemented, the total demand for industrial silicon in 2026 may decline by 5.61% to 405 tons. The demand in the first quarter of 2026 will be under pressure, and it may increase in the second quarter [29][31]. Supply - In 2026, the new production capacity of industrial silicon is limited. The total production capacity of projects with high probability of production in 2026 is about 400 thousand tons [31]. - The expectation of supply - side policies for industrial silicon is strong. The policies mainly focus on energy consumption constraints and the elimination of small - furnace capacity. Stricter energy consumption standards may impose hard constraints on supply, and the elimination of furnaces below 12,500KVA will significantly reduce the production capacity in the short term [34]. - In 2026, the supply of industrial silicon will decrease year - on - year. The actual effective production capacity of industrial silicon in 2026 will reach 8 million tons, but the supply mainly depends on regional profits and the inventory storage capacity of middle - stream traders. The silicon plants in the northwest have strong operating resilience, some silicon plants in the southwest still have the motivation to operate, and the inventory storage capacity of traders has room for increase. It is estimated that the supply of mainstream grades of industrial silicon in 2026 will be about 4.1 million tons [37][40]. Cost - In 2026, the domestic coal supply will be relatively stable under the dual effects of "anti - involution" and supply guarantee, and the coal price is difficult to have large - scale fluctuations. The supply of silica is sufficient, and its price is also difficult to rise. Overall, the cost of industrial silicon in 2026 will not be lower than that in 2025, nor will it increase significantly [45]. Inventory - In 2026, the industrial silicon market will still be in an over - supply situation and will be mainly priced based on cost, with more structural market conditions. The evolution of the inventory structure may lead to positive or negative cash - futures cycles and increase the price volatility [49]. Part Three: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Supply - demand outlook is consistent with the content in the preface summary, emphasizing that the demand will decline, the supply will remain loose, the inventory structure will have a stronger influence on the price, and the cost will change little [54]. - Trading logic is the same as that in the preface summary, indicating that the futures will be priced based on cost, the price will fall first and then rise, and the introduction of supply - side policies will lead to a large - scale unilateral increase in price [54]. - Operation strategies include unilateral operation within the price range, arbitrage of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon, and spot - futures business considering scale and channel while controlling risks [55][57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the paper pulp market showed a pattern of "increasing foreign supply, decreasing domestic supply, strong broadleaf, and weak softwood." The supply increment will significantly narrow in 2026, with global commodity pulp slightly increasing and China's imports expected to remain flat. The demand for cultural paper will decline further, while that for tissue paper and white cardboard will perform well. The cost of domestic broadleaf pulp will rise, and the price will range from 4,000 to 4,600 yuan, showing a "high in the front, low in the back, strong broadleaf, and stable softwood" trend [5][75][76]. - The supply - demand situation of offset paper in 2025 was "increasing quantity but not profit." In 2026, new production capacity will be put into operation, but the output is expected to continue to decline, the utilization rate will drop below 50%, and the market competition will intensify. The apparent consumption may decline further, and the cost will be pushed up by high - price pulp. The old production lines will be forced to exit [5][78][80]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Paper Pulp Futures and Spot Price Trends Review - From January to early February, the prices of paper pulp futures and spot rose synchronously, driven by factors such as continuous price support from the external market, "hoarding and price support" by traders after the festival, and the boost from the futures market sentiment [10]. - From mid - February to April, the price of paper pulp entered a downward channel, mainly due to the less - than - expected recovery of downstream demand, high port inventory, and the price inversion between the external market and domestic spot [11]. - From May to the end of July, the paper pulp market fluctuated widely, with the core contradiction being the game between short - term benefits and long - term weak reality [11][13][14]. - From August to mid - October, the paper pulp market showed a significant differentiation pattern of "weak softwood and stable broadleaf," which was caused by the difference in supply - demand structure [15]. - From late October to the end of December, the market differentiation further intensified, showing a pattern of "weak softwood and strong broadleaf," and the price gradually stabilized in shock at the end of the year [16]. 2. Paper Pulp Supply: High Imports, Increased Domestic Production, and Overall High Inventory - **Global Import Situation Analysis**: In 2025, the total import of wood pulp increased, with a significant increase in broadleaf pulp and a moderate increase in softwood pulp. The import price fluctuated downward. In 2026, the import volume will decline slightly year - on - year, and the proportion of broadleaf pulp is expected to continue to increase [30][33][35]. - **Domestic Capacity Change Analysis**: In 2025, the actual domestic pulp production capacity reached 425 tons, with a profit ranking of "chemi - thermomechanical pulp > broadleaf pulp > softwood pulp." In 2026, the planned production capacity is 345 tons, mainly concentrated in the fourth quarter, with broadleaf pulp as the core incremental source. The cash cost will become the bottom line of the spot price [37][38][40]. - **Domestic Inventory Change Analysis**: As of December 2025, the domestic paper pulp inventory showed a differentiated situation of "de - stocking in ports and passive inventory accumulation upstream." In the first quarter of 2026, the port inventory is expected to stop falling and rise, but the overall inventory center is expected to be lower than that in the same period of 2024 [43]. - **Summary of Core Features of the Supply Pattern**: The overall supply will remain loose, the structural differentiation will intensify, and the inventory pressure will still exist [44][45][46]. 3. Paper Pulp Demand: Weak Cultural Paper, Improved Packaging and Tissue Paper - **White Cardboard**: In 2025, the production and sales of white cardboard increased, and the export was outstanding. In 2026, the demand for paper pulp is expected to increase steadily [50][51]. - **Cultural Paper**: In 2025, the demand for cultural paper was weak, dragging down the consumption of paper pulp. In 2026, it will still be in a weak recovery state, and it is difficult to significantly improve [51][52]. - **Tissue Paper**: In 2025, the demand for paper pulp in the tissue paper industry increased rapidly. In 2026, it will continue to grow steadily, becoming a key force to offset the decline in cultural paper demand [52][53]. 4. Cultural Paper Market Review - **Spot Price Market**: The price of offset paper fluctuated downward throughout 2025, and stabilized at a low level at the end of the year. There was no obvious regional differentiation, and the market trading was light [54]. - **Futures Price Market**: The newly - listed cultural paper futures showed a weak trend of range - bound fluctuations, with low trading volume and volatility, and were affected by both capital sentiment and spot prices [55][58]. 5. Cultural Paper Supply Analysis - In 2025, the offset paper industry had a large increase in production capacity but a decline in demand, with low capacity utilization, high inventory, and poor profitability. In 2026, new production capacity will be put into operation, but the output is expected to decline further, and the industry will still be in the "capacity - reduction" stage [60][62][63]. 6. Cultural Paper Demand Analysis - **Import and Export**: In 2025, the import of cultural paper continued to be sluggish, and the export showed a structural differentiation. The overall role of export in making up for domestic demand was limited [70]. - **Downstream Demand**: In 2025, the demand for cultural paper was mainly supported by the publishing industry, but the support was weak, and the commercial printing demand was weak [71]. 7. Paper Pulp Fundamental Comprehensive Analysis - In 2025, the paper pulp supply - demand pattern was "increasing foreign supply, decreasing domestic supply, strong broadleaf, and weak softwood." In 2026, the supply increment will narrow, the demand structure will change, and the cost will rise [75][76]. 8. Paper Pulp Futures Strategy Analysis - Unilateral trading: Pay attention to the pressure of South American shipments in the second quarter and domestic production capacity release in the fourth quarter, and appropriately arrange short positions at high prices [77]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities under the impact of the near - month market [77]. - Options: Wait and see [77]. 9. Offset Paper Fundamental Comprehensive Analysis - In 2025, the offset paper industry had "increasing quantity but not profit." In 2026, the production capacity will increase, but the output is expected to decline, and the market competition will intensify [78][80]. 10. Offset Paper Strategy Analysis - Unilateral trading: The market is likely to fluctuate widely around the cost line of large - scale enterprises. Generally, the idea of shorting at high prices should be adopted [81]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. Appropriate attention can be paid to the pulp - offset paper arbitrage of shorting papermaking profits [81]. - Options: Pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options [81].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2) Core View of the Report In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI reached 50.1, up 0.9 from the previous month, significantly higher than the market - expected 49.3, returning above 50 for the first time in 8 months. The non - manufacturing PMI business activity was 50.2, up 0.7 from the previous month, higher than the market - expected 49.5. The manufacturing PMI showed an overall recovery, while the non - manufacturing PMI was in a relatively weak state [4][21]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Review of China's Manufacturing and Non - manufacturing PMI Data Tables - The table presents the manufacturing PMI and its sub - items for December and November 2025, including production, new orders, new export orders, etc., along with their changes [2]. Second Part: Full Recovery of Manufacturing PMI in December - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI reached 50.1, with significant recoveries in production, new orders, new export orders, and production and operation expectations. The main raw material purchase price and employment sub - items declined. It recovered against the seasonal trend, and most sub - items were at the middle level of the historical same period, indicating economic recovery. The finished product inventory was at a relatively high level, and there was a time lag in the economic recovery reaching the price end. Small - sized enterprises' PMI declined, while large and medium - sized enterprises' PMI increased. The economic cycle also showed a repair state [4][5]. Third Part: Mixed Performance and Overall Weakness of Non - manufacturing PMI in December - In December 2025, the non - manufacturing PMI business activity was 50.2. Some sub - items such as new orders, employment, and business activity increased, while sales price, new export orders, input price, and on - hand orders decreased. The decline in input and sales prices reflected the weakness of the non - manufacturing economy. Seasonally, many key indicators were at relatively low levels in the historical same period. The construction industry PMI continued to decline, and the service industry PMI was at a relatively low level [21][22].