油脂日报 2025 年 6 月 18 日 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 银河期货油脂日报 2025/6/18 | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2509收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8084 | 112 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8334 | | | | 8324 | 8284 | | 240 | 0 | 250 | 0 | 200 | -10 | | 棕榈油 | 8518 | 72 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8798 | | | | 8848 | 8898 | | 280 | 0 | 330 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 每日早盘观察 2025 年 6 月 18 日 公众号二维码 粕猪研究：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 棉禽油脂苹果研究： 刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 玉米花生：刘大勇 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 白糖油运：黄 莹 期货从业证号： F03111919 投资咨询证号：Z0018607 原木造纸：朱四祥 期货从业证号 F03127108 投资咨询号：Z0020124 每日早盘观察 大豆/粕类 【外盘情况】 CBOT 大豆指数上涨 0.26%至 1074 美分/蒲，CBOT 豆粕指数上涨 0.44%至 294.3 美金/短吨 【相关资讯】 1.欧盟委员会：截至 6 月 15 日，欧盟 2024/25 年度大豆进口量为 1358 万吨，而 去年为 1265 万吨。油菜籽进口量为 691 万吨，而去年为 545 万吨； 2.油世界：截止 6 月 12 日当周，美豆出口检验量依然只有 21.6 万吨，没有对于 中国的装运，对于欧盟的装运也只有 5.8 万吨，对于日本的装 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 06 月 18 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 13545 | 15 | 23,412 | -3475 | 151,537 | 3618 | | CF05合约 | 13540 | 5 | 1,897 | 1318 | 4,409 | 779 | | CF09合约 | 13540 | 15 | 124,617 | -21025 | 533,428 | -118 | | CY01合约 | 19810 | 19810 | 2 | 2 | 37 | -1 | | CY05合约 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | CY09合约 | 19840 | 65 | 7430 | 1 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 6 月 18 日 【粕类日报】市场整体稳定 盘面震荡运行 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/6/18 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 3095 | - 3 | 天津 | -80 | -70 | -10 0 | | 东莞 | 0 5 | 2761 | 3 | | -170 | -170 | | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 3062 | -12 | | -170 | -180 | 1 0 | | | | | | 日照 | -160 | -160 | 0 | | 南通 | 0 1 | 2412 | 2 0 | | -138 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, as Brazil is about to reach its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase. In the short - term, the market is affected by production data, and in the long - term, Brazil's production progress and actual increase need attention [4]. - Domestically, the fast sales rate may support sugar prices, but the influx of imported sugar and the weakening of raw sugar may drag down sugar prices. Short - term sugar prices are expected to remain weak [4]. - Raw sugar has declined due to expected global supply increases. In China, summer stocking demand is delayed, and the supply pressure of processed sugar is about to materialize. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow raw sugar prices in the short - term [5]. - For trading strategies, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short - term, and it's recommended to wait and see for arbitrage, while considering out - of - the - money ratio spread options or selling wide - straddle options for options trading [6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR2511 closed at 5,679 with a decrease of 12 (-0.21%), trading volume of 190,971 (-9.53%), and open interest of 371,817 (0.68%); SR2507 closed at 5,732 with a decrease of 8 (-0.14%), trading volume of 2,847 (-12.35%), and open interest of 14,281 (-6.06%); SR2509 closed at 5,588 with a decrease of 14 (-0.25%), trading volume of 25,009 (3.21%), and open interest of 51,362 (-0.07%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: In regions like Liuzhou, Kunming, and Zhanjiang, spot prices ranged from 5,865 - 6,410 yuan/ton. The price in Liuzhou was 6,120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: SR07 - SR11 spread was 144 with an increase of 6; SR09 - SR11 spread was 91 with an increase of 1; SR07 - SR09 spread was 180 with an increase of 5 [3]. - **Import Profits**: For Brazilian imports, the in - quota price was 4,373 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota price was 5,589 yuan/ton. For Thai imports, the in - quota price was 4,425 yuan/ton, and the out - quota price was 5,657 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **International**: With Brazil's approaching supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to increase. Short - term prices are affected by production data, and long - term trends depend on Brazil's production [4]. - **Domestic**: Fast sales may support prices, but imported sugar and weak raw sugar may lead to price drops. Short - term sugar prices are expected to be weak [4]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - Raw sugar prices have declined due to expected supply increases, and China's summer stocking delay and raw sugar weakness have increased out - of - quota import profits. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow raw sugar prices [5]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Trading**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short - term, following raw sugar fluctuations [6]. - **Arbitrage**: It's recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Options Trading**: Consider out - of - the - money ratio spread options or selling wide - straddle options [10]. 3.5 Related Attachments - Figures include Guangxi monthly inventory, Yunnan monthly inventory, new industrial inventory, domestic sugar cumulative sales rate, Liuzhou sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price difference, sugar September basis, and Zhengzhou sugar 5 - 9 spread [11][13][16]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 6 月 18 日 第一部分 数据 2025/6/18 收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 成交量 增减幅 持仓量 增减幅 2284 -2 -0.09% 24,632 49.23% 93,064 1.87% 2325 11 0.47% 2,039 38.14% 9,479 10.16% 2397 -2 -0.08% 472,636 85.94% 837,782 7.84% 2692 1 0.04% 1,370 56.21% 4,624 4.54% 2708 5 0.18% 14 64.29% 150 3.45% 2778 0 0.00% 73,119 98.70% 87,940 7.97% 青冈 嘉吉生化 诸城兴贸 寿光 锦州港 南通港 广东港口 2240 2090 2530 2460 2380 2500 2470 0 0 10 0 0 0 10 -157 -307 133 63 -17 103 73 龙凤 中粮 嘉吉 玉峰 金玉米 诸城兴贸 恒仁工贸 2780 2750 2850 2980 2950 2980 2920 30 0 30 0 0 0 -20 72 4 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 6 月 18 日 【生猪日报】供应变化有限 盘面震荡运行 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/6/18 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 14.38 | 14.31 | 0.07 | 山 西 | 14.22 | 14.22 | 0 | | 湖北（0） | 13.94 | 13.94 | 0.00 | 辽 宁 | 14.04 | 14.08 | -0.04 | | 安徽（300） | 14.43 | 14.35 | 0.08 | 吉 林 | 14.01 | 14.04 | -0.03 | | 湖南（100） | 13.94 | 13.94 | 0.00 | ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 6 月 18 日 | 研究员：刘大勇 | | --- | 期货从业证号： F03107370 :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2025/6/18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK504 | 8070 | 0 | 0.00% | 6 | 50.00% | 98 | 1.03% | | PK510 | 8254 | -14 | -0.17% | 43,961 | -10.42% | 123,299 | -3.31% | | PK601 | 8012 | -28 | -0.35% | 1,357 | -12.56% | 4,830 | 14.54% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生 ...

BR 日报 【银河期货】丁二烯橡胶每日早盘观察（25-06-18） 【市场情况】 BR 丁二烯橡胶相关：BR 主力 08 合约报收 11470 点，上涨+145 点或 +1.28%。截至前日 18 时，山东地区大庆石化顺丁报收 11600-11700 元/吨，山东 民营顺丁报收 11500 元/吨，华东市场扬子石化顺丁报收 11500 元/吨，华南地区茂 名石化顺丁报收 11700 元/吨。山东地区抚顺石化丁苯 1502 报收 11800 元/吨。山 东地区丁二烯报收 9300-9500 元/吨。 RU/NR 天然橡胶相关：RU 主力 09 合约报收 14045 点，上涨+175 点或 +1.26%。截至前日 12 时，销地 WF 报收 13750-13850 元/吨，越南 3L 混合报收 14800-14900 元/吨。NR 主力 08 合约报收 12260 点，上涨+185 点或+1.53%；新 加坡 TF 主力 09 合约报收 162.3 点，上涨+0.8 点或+0.50%。截至前日 18 时，泰 标近港船货报收 1700-1750 美元/吨，泰混近港船货报收 1700-1730 美元/吨，人 民币混合 ...

Report Overview - Report title: [Galaxy Research] Investigation Report on Cotton Planting and Inventory in Northern Xinjiang (II) [2] - Report date: June 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [7] Research Background - The cotton planting area will continue to increase in the 2025/26 season, and the report aims to understand the change in Xinjiang's cotton output [3] - Xinjiang's spinning capacity is approaching 30 million spindles and still expanding, and the report wants to know the operation of textile enterprises under the deteriorating international trade environment [3] - With the accelerating出库 speed of Xinjiang cotton, the report intends to find out the real inventory situation due to concerns about tight supply during the off - season before new cotton is on the market [3] Research Route - Urumqi - Wujiaqu - Shihezi - Kuitun - Jinghe [4] Research Findings Spinning Enterprise D - Enterprise situation: It has a capacity of about 100,000 spindles, two processing workshops (self - operated and contract - processing), 30 - 50 employees, mainly produces pure - cotton yarn C32S and C40S, and the processing fee is 4000 - 5000 yuan/ton with different varieties having different fees [6] - Startup situation: Its textile machines in Xinjiang are mostly running, while its inland spinning mills operate during off - peak hours at night as many inland spinning machines are shut down [8] - Inventory: Since it mainly does contract - processing, its cotton and yarn inventories are small [9] - Order situation: Orders are average, and the high impurity in cotton affects yarn quality [9] - Market outlook: The downstream market is average, cotton prices may have small fluctuations. The enthusiasm of ginning factories in Northern Xinjiang to lease factories is low, and some have the idea of selling off, showing less confidence than in previous years [9] Warehouse E - Enterprise situation: It has a storage capacity of about 150,000 tons [10] - Cotton inventory: The incoming volume this year accounts for about 50% of the total capacity. The peak outgoing volume can reach 2000 tons/day, with peak periods after the Spring Festival and in April. The outgoing speed has slowed down recently, and the remaining inventory is small, with most goods owned by large enterprises and little by private enterprises [10] Warehouse F - Enterprise and inventory situation: It has a small storage capacity of 40,000 - 50,000 tons, and the remaining cotton inventory is low. The outgoing speed has slowed down recently. The cotton outgoing progress this year is slightly faster than last year, with 20+ trucks per day during the peak last year and 3 - 4 trucks per day recently [11] Warehouse G - Enterprise and inventory situation: It is a large warehouse with a capacity of 400,000 - 500,000 tons. The incoming volume this year is slightly less, about 300,000 - 350,000 tons. It still has some inventory, and the outgoing speed has slowed down recently after being fast after the Spring Festival and maintaining a basic volume in March and April [12] - Other: The new cotton is growing well, and the output in the new season may not change much compared to this season. Some ginning factories in Northern Xinjiang plan to lease or sell off, and the willingness of enterprises to lease factories is low this year [12]