Group 1: Market Information 1.1 Futures Information 1.1.1 Thread Futures - RB05: Yesterday's price was 3104 yuan/ton, today's is 3111 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton [2] - RB10: Yesterday's price was 3146 yuan/ton, today's is 3156 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2] - RB01: Yesterday's price was 3088 yuan/ton, today's is 3082 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton [2] 1.1.2 Hot Roll Futures - HC05: Yesterday's price was 3248 yuan/ton, today's is 3263 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [2] - HC10: Yesterday's price was 3271 yuan/ton, today's is 3282 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [2] - HC01: Yesterday's price was 3220 yuan/ton, today's is 3240 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [2] 1.2 Spot Information 1.2.1 Thread Spot - Shanghai Zhongtian: Today's price is 3250 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] - Nanjing Xicheng: Today's price is 3400 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] - Shandong Shiheng: Today's price is 3240 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday [2] - Tangshan Tanggang: Today's price is 3100 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday [2] 1.2.2 Hot Roll Spot - Tianjin Hegang Hot Roll: Today's price is 3160 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] - Lecong Rigang Hot Roll: Today's price is 3240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] - Shanghai Angang Hot Roll: Today's price is 3240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] 1.3 Spread and Profit Information 1.3.1 Thread - 05 contract thread basis: The cheapest delivery product is 79 yuan/ton [2] - 10 contract thread basis: The cheapest delivery product is 34 yuan/ton [2] - 01 contract thread basis: The cheapest delivery product is 108 yuan/ton [2] - 05 contract thread surface profit: -147 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] - 10 contract thread surface profit: -103 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] - 01 contract thread surface profit: -116 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] 1.3.2 Hot Roll - 05 contract hot roll basis: The cheapest delivery product is -23 yuan/ton [2] - 10 contract hot roll basis: The cheapest delivery product is -42 yuan/ton [2] - 01 contract hot roll basis: The cheapest delivery product is 0 yuan/ton [2] - 05 contract hot roll surface profit: 5 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] - 10 contract hot roll surface profit: 23 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] - 01 contract hot roll surface profit: 42 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] Group 2: Market Analysis 2.1 Core View - Today, the steel futures market oscillated in the morning and rebounded from the bottom in the afternoon. The overall spot trading volume of steel was average, and the low - price trading volume continued to improve in the afternoon [6] - Last week, steel production resumed, and the output of both thread and hot roll increased due to the repair of profit levels. The total steel inventory continued to decline, and the decline rate of social inventory was faster than that of factory inventory. Steel is still in the de - stocking cycle, and inventory accumulation is relatively delayed [6] - Affected by the season, the apparent demand for building materials weakened, while the apparent demand for hot roll increased due to the year - end restocking of home appliance enterprises and export impulse. The overall steel demand performance was still acceptable [6] - On the raw material side, coal mine supply decreased slightly, prices stopped falling and stabilized. The loss of import profit supported the iron ore price, and steel costs had support. Recently, the iron ore market started to trade restocking. However, the resumption of hot metal production may accelerate in the future, suppressing the upward space of steel prices [6] - In January, the steel export license management began. After the export impulse in December, short - term exports may decline. With the arrival of winter, the marginal demand for steel weakened, putting pressure on steel prices. The impact of subsequent policies on the export side still needs to wait and see the actual implementation. It is expected that hot metal production will still increase this week. Continue to pay attention to the impact of macro news on the futures market [6] 2.2 Trading Strategies 2.2.1 Unilateral - Maintain an oscillating trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [7] 2.2.2 Arbitrage - It is recommended to short the hot roll - coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short position of the hot roll - thread spread [8] 2.2.3 Options - It is recommended to wait and see [9] Group 3: Important Information - Starting from January 6, the atmospheric diffusion conditions in Handan City have gradually improved, and the Heavy Pollution Weather Emergency Response was lifted at 10:00 on January 6, 2026 [10][11] - On January 5, Fuzhou organized the video - connection activity for the start of major projects in the first quarter. A total of 185 major projects started, with a total investment of 120.97 billion yuan and an annual planned investment of 43.75 billion yuan [11] Group 4: Related Drawings - The report provides 31 related drawings, including the aggregate price of thread steel, the aggregate price of hot - rolled coil, the basis of different contracts, the spread between different contracts, the surface profit of different contracts, and the cash profit of different regions and processes [14][16][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong due to supportive market factors, with upward potential in the long - term, but there may be short - term回调 risks. The report expects US cotton to trade in a range and Zhengzhou cotton to trend upward with possible short - term corrections. For the cotton market, it is recommended to be cautious in trading strategies. The cotton yarn market has weak demand, with prices remaining stable and trading light [6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts all closed higher, with trading volume and open interest changes varying. CY01 remained flat, while CY05 and CY09 closed higher. Trading volume and open interest also changed accordingly [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B was 15,615 yuan/ton, and the price of Cot A was 74.30 cents/pound. The price of polyester staple fiber increased by 70 yuan/ton, while the price of viscose staple fiber remained unchanged [2]. - **Spread**: Cotton and cotton yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads all had different degrees of change [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of December 30, the drought index in the main US cotton - producing areas continued to rise, and it is expected to worsen in Q1. As of December 19, ICE cotton futures' ON - CALL data showed a decrease in the number of un - priced contracts. As of December 27, the progress of cotton planting in Brazil in the 2025/26 season accelerated, but it was still behind the average of the past three years [4][5]. Trading Logic - The rumored reduction in cotton production in Xinjiang has been gradually confirmed. Cotton sales are progressing rapidly, and there are positive expectations for consumption. China's signing of US cotton contracts also provides upward momentum. Overall, the cotton fundamentals are strong, but there may be short - term回调 risks [6]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: US cotton is expected to trade in a range, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trend upward with possible short - term corrections [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold off on trading [9]. - **Options**: Hold off on trading [10]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Today, the price of pure cotton yarn remained stable, with light trading. After the New Year's Day holiday, most spinning mills have resumed production, but the downstream demand is weak, and the market's purchasing enthusiasm is low, with most buyers making small - order purchases as needed [10]. Third Part: Options - **Volatility**: The 10 - day HV of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of different option contracts were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively [12]. - **Options Strategy**: Hold off on trading [14]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based domestic and foreign cotton price spread, cotton basis for different months, spreads between cotton yarn and cotton futures contracts, and spreads between different cotton futures contracts [16][19][23][24].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term. Domestic sugar is expected to show an oscillatory trend in the near future [8][9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,269 with a rise of 3 (0.06%), trading volume of 9,154 (a decrease of 7505), and an increase in open interest of 1,495. SR01 closed at 5,278 with a rise of 14 (0.27%), trading volume of 1,423 (a decrease of 1,667), and a decrease in open interest of 1,391. SR05 closed at 5,257 with a rise of 6 (0.11%), trading volume of 136,106 (a decrease of 64,247), and an increase in open interest of 6,906 [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of sugar in Liuzhou was 5,370 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20), in Kunming 5,200 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10), in Wuhan 5,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Nanning 5,330 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10), in Rizhao 5,545 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Xi'an 5,790 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20). The basis in Liuzhou was 113, in Kunming - 57, in Wuhan 393, in Nanning 73, and in Rizhao 288 [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of SR05 - SR01 was - 21 (a decrease of 8), SR09 - SR05 was 12 (a decrease of 3), and SR09 - SR01 was - 9 (a decrease of 11) [3]. - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, the quota - within price was 3,946 yuan/ton, the out - of - quota price was 5,010 yuan/ton, the spread with Liuzhou was 360, and the spread with Rizhao was 535. For Thai imports, the quota - within price was 3,994 yuan/ton, the out - of - quota price was 5,072 yuan/ton, the spread with Liuzhou was 298, and the spread with Rizhao was 473 [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information**: As of January 5, all 19 sugar mills in Guangdong for the 25/26 crushing season have started production. By the end of December 2025, the cumulative sugar production in Guangdong was 86,600 tons (compared to 116,300 tons in the same period last year), with a sugar yield of 8.72% (compared to 9.397% last year). The price of sulfured sugar of Guangdong Jinling in the 25/26 crushing season was 5,310 yuan/ton, and carbonated sugar was 5,550 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton in the afternoon). On January 5, the sugar futures market fluctuated and closed higher. The spot price of sugar in the main producing areas was basically stable in the afternoon, but the secondary quotes of Nanhua and Yingmao were raised by 10 yuan/ton, and the overall trading volume was average. As of December 31, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 1.1897 million tons, a nearly 25% increase compared to the same period last year; 504 sugar mills had started production, 12 more than the same period last year [4][5][7]. - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, Brazilian sugarcane is expected to gradually enter the end of the crushing season. The cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 39.904 million tons, an increase of 543,000 tons compared to the same period last year. The supply pressure of Brazilian sugar will gradually ease, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Most sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere is in an increasing cycle, but the final realization of the production increase may affect the market trend. In the short - term, the US sugar price is technically building a bottom, but there is a lack of upward driving force. Domestically, the current sugar price is low, in the low - price range over the years. After the previous unexpected decline, the short - covering market has been repaired. The high processing cost of domestic sugar (most sugar mills in Guangxi have a cost of over 5,400 yuan/ton) provides some support for the market. The upward trend of the US sugar price on the external market has an upward driving effect on Zhengzhou sugar. However, considering that China is in the peak sugar - crushing season and there is still some sales pressure, and the global sugar production is expected to increase in the 25/26 season, the sugar price is expected to face significant pressure near the upper oscillation platform. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, and domestic sugar is expected to show an oscillatory trend [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [10]. - **Options**: Sell put options [10]. 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts showing data on monthly inventory, monthly output, spot prices, basis, and price spreads of sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [12][13][16][18][20][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the near - month contracts are expected to be mainly in a weak and volatile state. In the long - term, the supply pressure of eggs will ease in the first half of 2026, and the spot price is expected to gradually strengthen after the Spring Festival, but the increase is limited due to the off - season demand. In the second half of the year, the supply is uncertain. If the first - half price is high, the supply pressure will increase; if the price is low, the supply will decrease significantly. The demand in the second half of the year is in the peak season, and the spot price is likely to rise, with the increase depending on the supply situation [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Market**: JD01 closed at 3101, up 31 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3550, up 42; JD09 closed at 4009, down 47. The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the 01 - 05 spread was - 449, down 11, and the 05 - 09 spread was - 459, up 89. The ratios of egg to corn and egg to bean粕 also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price in the main production areas was 3.03 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.18 yuan/jin, unchanged. The prices of most regions remained stable, with some having small fluctuations. The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 3.95 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin [2][4]. - **Profit Calculation**: The profit per chicken was 1.23 yuan, up 1.45 yuan from the previous day. The average price of culled chickens was 3.95 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin; the average price of chicken chicks was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04 yuan/feather; the price of chicken vaccines remained unchanged at 3 yuan. The prices of feed such as corn, bean粕, and compound feed for laying hens remained unchanged [2]. 2. Fundamental Information - **Egg Price and Sales**: The mainstream egg prices in most regions remained stable, and the egg prices continued to fluctuate and consolidate, with general sales [4]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In November 2025, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%, lower than expected. The monthly output of chicken chicks in the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in November was about 39.55 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13%. The estimated inventory of laying hens in production from December 2025 to March 2026 was 1.348 billion, 1.338 billion, 1.325 billion, and 1.315 billion respectively [5]. - **Culled Chicken**: In the week of December 18, 2025, the number of culled chickens in the main production areas was 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week. The average culling age was 486 days, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of the week of December 18, 2025, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7023 tons, with little change from the previous week and at a low level over the years [5]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of the week of December 18, 2025, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, a slight increase from the previous week. The production - link inventory was 1 day, a slight decrease from the previous week, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.12 days, a slight increase from the previous week [6]. 3. Trading Logic - **Short - term**: The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has relieved the previous supply pressure, but the demand is average, so the near - month contracts are expected to be mainly in a weak and volatile state [8]. - **Long - term**: The supply pressure will ease in the first half of 2026, and the spot price is expected to gradually strengthen after the Spring Festival, but the increase is limited due to the off - season demand. The supply in the second half of the year is uncertain, and the price trend depends on the supply and demand situation [8]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: It is expected that the near - month contracts will be mainly in a weak and volatile state in the short term. Consider building long positions in the far - month contracts at low prices [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Agricultural Products R & D Report - Apple Daily [1] - Date: January 5, 2024 [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji Apple Price Index: 109.01 today, 108.70 next working day, up 0.31 [2] - 6 Kinds of Fruit Average Wholesale Price: 7.93 today, 7.92 next working day, up 0.01 [2] Futures Prices - AP01: 10100 today, 9950 yesterday, up 150 [2] - AP05: 9547 today, 9120 yesterday, up 427 [2] - AP10: 8450 today, 8116 yesterday, up 334 [2] Spreads - AP01 - AP05: -277 change [2] - AP05 - AP10: 93 change [2] - AP10 - AP01: 184 change [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Trading Logic - This year's apple production decreased, good - fruit rate is poor, storage is difficult, and cold - storage inventory data is low. Cold - storage apple inventory peak is at a low level in the same period over the years, and apple quality is relatively poor, so the effective inventory is likely to be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong. Although the recent market sales are average and the futures market is technically weak, considering the production problem, the downward space is relatively limited [5] Market Data - As of December 24, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 7.4404 million tons, a decrease of 89,400 tons from last week, and the de - stocking speed is lower than the same period last year [7] - In November 2025, the fresh apple import volume was 0.25 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.19% and a year - on - year increase of 48.76%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 113,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.71%. In November 2025, the fresh apple export volume was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42% [7] - Apple prices in the producing areas are stable. The number of cold - storage buyers has increased, and the trading volume has increased. Buyers mainly purchase high - quality and low - price apples, and medium - quality apples with high defect rates from farmers have few transactions. Traders in the northwest producing areas mainly pack their self - stored goods. The market arrivals are stable, the sales are stable, and the prices are stable [7] - The price of late - maturing paper - bag Fuji in Baishui County, Weinan, Shaanxi is stable. The mainstream price of 70 farmer - produced apples is 3.0 - 3.3 yuan per catty, and most transactions are concentrated at 3.2 yuan per catty. The price of trader - sourced apples is about 4.2 yuan per catty. The recent sales are good, and the buyers' enthusiasm has increased [7] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Expected to fluctuate in a short - term range [8] - Arbitrage: Long AP05 and short AP10 [8] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include prices of different apple varieties, AP contract basis, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrivals in some markets, 6 - kind fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory and出库量 [11][13][18][20][23]

研究所 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2026 年 1 月 5 日 1、期货市场：期货盘面震荡，最终报收 2215（-9/-0.04%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 1860 元/吨，北线报价 1840 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2000 元/吨，榆林地区报价 1860 元/吨，山西地区报价 1980 元/吨，河南地区报价 2090 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2180 元/吨，鲁北报价 2140 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2050 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2070 元/吨，云贵报价 2040 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2210 元/吨，宁波报价 2240 元/吨，广州报价 2190 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 本周期(20251227-20260102）国际甲醇产量为 874699 吨，较上周减少 14700 吨，装置 产能利用率为 59.96%，较上周下降 1.01%。周期内主要装置变动为马石油 3 号停车。 【逻辑分析】 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 供应端，煤制甲醇利润在 450 元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽 松。进口端，美金价格小幅上涨，伊朗大部分装置限气停车，非 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Urea Daily Report (January 5, 2026) [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] - Research Area: Commodities (Urea) [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The domestic urea market shows a complex situation. Although the daily output is high and the supply is relatively abundant, affected by factors such as Indian tenders, regional demand, and the progress of off - season storage, the price trend is expected to be strong in the short - term and the supply - demand fundamentals will remain relatively loose in the medium - term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: Urea futures rose strongly, closing at 1768 (+25/+1.43%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The ex - factory prices of urea in various regions showed a stable - to - rising trend. For example, in Henan, it was reported at 1640 - 1660 yuan/ton; in Shandong, small - particle ex - factory price was 1660 - 1700 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - On January 5, the daily production of the urea industry was 19.86 tons, an increase of 0.14 tons compared to the previous working day and an increase of 2.52 tons compared to the same period last year. The current operating rate was 82.70%, a 2.52% increase compared to 78.05% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - **Regional Market Conditions**: In Shandong, the ex - factory price was weak and stable, with a cooling market sentiment. In Henan, the market sentiment was weak, and the ex - factory price followed the downward trend. In the delivery area and surrounding areas, the ex - factory price was strong, and the market atmosphere was positive [5]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The daily output of domestic urea has recovered to around 19.8 tons due to the return of some gas - fired maintenance devices. India has tendered again, but the impact on the domestic market is limited due to the lack of new quotas. The off - season storage progress has reached over 70%, and the future procurement intensity will gradually slow down [5]. - **Price Forecast**: In the short - term, the ex - factory price is expected to be strong in most regions. In the medium - term, the supply - demand fundamentals of urea will remain relatively loose, and the acceptance of price increases by downstream customers is low [5]. Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Bullish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold off [6][9]. - **Options**: Hold off [9]. Related Charts - Multiple charts show historical data on urea production, operating rate, inventory, and related product data from 2022 to 2025, including daily production, coal - based and gas - based production, enterprise inventory, port inventory, etc. [10][14]

研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2025 年 01 月 05 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 814.5 | 805.0 | 9.5 | I01-I05 | 17.5 | 15.5 | 2.0 | | DCE05 | 797.0 | 789.5 | 7.5 | I05-I09 | 22.0 | 21.0 | 1.0 | | DCE09 | 775.0 | 768.5 | 6.5 | I09-I01 | -39.5 | -36.5 | -3.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 798 | 798 | 0 | 867 | 54 | 69 | 90 | | 纽曼粉 | 800 | 800 | 0 | 875 | 62 | 77 | 98 | | 麦克粉 | 804 | 803 | 1 | 888 | 75 | 90 | 111 | | 金布 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. corn price is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern due to high production despite reduced inventory and export benefits [4][8] - The spot price of domestic corn is relatively stable in the short term. North - east corn is relatively strong with farmers' reluctance to sell, while North - China corn is weakening. The price rebound space of corn is limited, and the 03 corn contract will oscillate within a narrow range [6][8] - The starch price is mainly influenced by corn price and downstream stocking. With rising inventory and weakening corporate profitability, the 03 starch contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures Disk - For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2293, up 8 (0.35%); C2605 closed at 2252, down 3 (- 0.13%); C2509 closed at 2277, unchanged (0.00%) [2] - For corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2486, down 11 (- 0.44%); CS2605 closed at 2552, down 13 (- 0.51%); CS2509 closed at 2598, down 6 (- 0.23%) [2] 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - Corn spot prices in different regions: Qinggang was 2120, Songyuan Jiajie was 2190, Zhucheng Xingmao was 2320, Shouguang was 2266, Jinzhou Port was 2320, Nantong Port was 2390, and Guangdong Port was 2440 [2] - Starch spot prices in different regions: Longfeng was 2750, COFCO was 2700, Jiajie was 2850, Yufeng was 2860, Jinyu Corn was 2800, Zhucheng Xingmao was 2880, and Hengren Industry and Trade was 2760 [2] 3.1.3 Spreads - Corn inter - period spreads: C01 - C05 was 41 (up 11), C05 - C09 was - 25 (down 3), C09 - C01 was - 16 (down 8) [2] - Starch inter - period spreads: CS01 - CS05 was - 66 (up 2), CS05 - CS09 was - 46 (down 7), CS09 - CS01 was 112 (up 5) [2] - Cross - variety spreads: CS09 - C09 was 321 (down 6), CS01 - C01 was 193 (down 19), CS05 - C05 was 300 (down 10) [2] 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Corn - The U.S. corn price is bottom - oscillating. The import profit of foreign corn is rising. The spot price in North - China corn is weakening, and that in North - east corn is relatively strong. The price difference between North - east and North - China corn is narrowing [4][6] - The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is increasing. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of North - east corn before the Spring Festival and the downstream inventory - building situation [6] 3.2.2 Starch - In Shandong, the number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants is increasing, and the local corn spot price is weakening. The starch inventory has risen, with the manufacturer's inventory at 112.3 million tons this week, an increase of 2.1 million tons from last week, a monthly increase of 3.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.6% [7] - The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is strong, and the corporate profitability is declining [7] 3.3 Trading Strategies 3.3.1 Unilateral - The 03 U.S. corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. Long positions can be established for the 07 corn contract at low prices [9] 3.3.2 Arbitrage - Hold a wait - and - see attitude [10] 3.4 Corn Options - Adopt a short - term cumulative put option strategy with rolling operations [11]

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 01 月 05 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 投资咨询证号： Z0018817 :021-65789253 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： F03113636 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 1/ 10 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 【相关价格】 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3260 元（-10），北京敬业 3140 元（-10），上海鞍钢热 卷 3250 元（-20），天津河钢热卷 3170 元（-10）。 【交易策略】 今日钢材盘面继续承压，钢材现货成交整体一般偏弱，价格跟随盘面下跌，刚需 采购为主。上周钢材有所复产，铁水转向增加，受利润水平的修复影响螺纹和热卷均 有所增产；钢材总库存继续去化，社库去化速度比厂库更快，钢材仍处于去库周期， 累库相对延后；季节性影响建材表需转弱，而热卷受家电企业年末补库及出口冲量影 响表需仍然增长，整体钢材需求表现仍然尚可；原料端煤矿供小幅回落，价格止跌企 稳，进口利润亏损支撑铁矿价格，钢材成本存在支撑，近期铁矿开始交易补库；但此 后铁水或加速复产，压制钢材上涨空间。进 ...