1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market is currently experiencing a temporary adjustment due to the divergence among Fed officials, the rebound of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, and the U.S. dollar index. However, considering the high expectations for future U.S. liquidity easing and the lingering risk of stagflation, precious metals are expected to remain strong overall [2][3]. - The copper market has seen a significant increase in prices due to the Grasberg mine accident, which has changed the long - term supply - demand structure and intensified the tightness of copper ore. Although consumption is weak, if the price breaks through the previous high, it may further rise [5][7]. - The alumina market shows a downward trend in both domestic and foreign spot prices, with a weakening fundamental outlook. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range at a low level [10][12]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has a stable and slightly strong alloy ingot spot price due to the start of raw material preparation by some enterprises and the increasing operating rate of die - casting plants [14][15]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to see the price maintain an oscillatory upward trend, driven by the rebound of the non - ferrous metal sector and the consumption resilience shown by the reduction of social inventory [18][23]. - The zinc market may maintain a slightly surplus state in September. The overseas market has some support for zinc prices, but there is a risk of further decline if there is large - scale warehousing at LME [27][29]. - The lead market has a complex situation with both increasing supply and pre - holiday stocking demand from downstream enterprises. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [32]. - The nickel market is supported by short - term positive news from Indonesia and the Philippines, and the price is expected to be oscillatory and strong [33][34]. - The stainless steel market has increasing production but slow - moving demand. The price is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [37][38]. - The industrial silicon market is affected by the production schedule of polysilicon in October and market sentiment. It is recommended to participate in long positions [41][42]. - The polysilicon market is facing the pressure of old warehouse receipts cancellation, but with reduced supply and demand, it is recommended to go long and trade in bands [45][46]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern due to the complex situation of supply and demand and pre - holiday factors [48][49]. - The tin market is restricted by the strong U.S. dollar index, with tight supply at the mine end and weak demand. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [52][53]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold fell 0.72% to $3735.805 per ounce, and London silver fell 0.3% to $43.885 per ounce. The Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined [2]. - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.66% to 97.86, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.145%, and the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar fell 0.28% to 7.1315 [2]. Important Information - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in October is 8.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 91.9% [2]. Trading Strategy - Adopt a long - only strategy, wait and see for arbitrage, and use collar call options [3]. Copper Market Review - The night - session closing price of SHFE copper 2511 contract rose 3.28% to 82610 yuan per ton, and LME copper rose 3.27% to $10320 per ton [5]. - LME inventory decreased by 200 tons to 144,700 tons, and COMEX inventory decreased by 157 tons to 318,200 tons [5]. Important Information - The Grasberg mine accident will lead to a 35% decline in copper and gold production in 2026 [5]. - AurubisAG's new metal recycling plant in the U.S. has started production, which will reduce U.S. metal imports [6]. Trading Strategy - The price is in a strong upward trend, continue to hold cross - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [8]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session price of the alumina 2601 contract rose 22 yuan to 2916 yuan per ton. Spot prices in various regions declined [10]. Important Information - Guinea's bauxite prices decreased, and 130,000 tons of imported alumina are expected to arrive in October [11]. - In August 2025, China's alumina imports decreased by 25.4% month - on - month and exports decreased by 21.4% month - on - month [12]. Trading Strategy - The price fluctuates in a narrow range at a low level, conduct reverse calendar spread arbitrage, and wait and see for options [12]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session price of the casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 80 yuan to 20400 yuan per ton. Spot prices remained stable [14]. Important Information - The new policy affects the recycled aluminum industry, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [14]. Trading Strategy - The futures price rebounds with the aluminum price, conduct long AD short AL arbitrage, and wait and see for options [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session price of SHFE aluminum 2511 contract rose 120 yuan to 20805 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [18]. Important Information - The U.S. implemented a 15% tariff on EU - imported automobiles. The electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 0.8 tons, and the Indonesian project is expected to be put into production [18][20][21]. Trading Strategy - The price rebounds with the sector, wait and see for arbitrage and options [24]. Zinc Market Review - The LME zinc price rose 1.14% to $2922.5 per ton, and SHFE zinc 2511 rose 0.37% to 21995 yuan per ton [27]. - The spot market had weak transactions, and the premium had limited upward potential [27]. Important Information - The domestic zinc inventory decreased, and the start - up rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises in Guangdong is expected to decline due to the typhoon [28]. Trading Strategy - The price oscillates in a range, pay attention to LME inventory changes, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. Lead Market Review - The LME lead price rose 0.18% to $2002.5 per ton, and SHFE lead 2511 rose 0.29% to 17125 yuan per ton [32]. - The spot price of lead decreased, and the transaction of recycled refined lead was good [32]. Important Information - The lead inventory decreased, and a small - scale recycled lead smelter in South China resumed production [32]. Trading Strategy - The price oscillates at a high level, short lightly at high prices, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [32]. Nickel Market Review - The LME nickel price rose $95 to $15435 per ton, and SHFE nickel rose 1070 yuan to 122750 yuan per ton [33]. - The spot premiums of different types of nickel remained unchanged [34]. Important Information - A Fed official warned against continuous interest rate cuts, and Indonesia sanctioned 25 nickel mining companies [34]. Trading Strategy - The price is oscillatory and strong, wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The price of the stainless steel SS2511 contract rose 30 yuan to 12935 yuan per ton, and the index position decreased [37]. - The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were stable [37]. Important Information - The stainless steel inventory in Foshan increased, and the U.S. import tariff affected the market [38]. Trading Strategy - The price has a wide - range oscillation, wait and see for arbitrage [39]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The futures price of industrial silicon rose 0.84% to 9020 yuan per ton, and the spot price remained stable [41]. Important Information - In August, China's industrial silicon exports increased by 18.30% year - on - year [41]. Trading Strategy - Participate in long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options, and no arbitrage strategy [43]. Polysilicon Market Review - The futures price of polysilicon rose 2.41% to 51380 yuan per ton, and the spot price remained stable [45]. Important Information - Oriental Hope's Xinjiang project is under maintenance, which has little impact on overall supply [45]. Trading Strategy - Trade in long - short bands, conduct reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts, and sell out - of - the - money put options [46]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The price of the lithium carbonate 2511 contract fell 580 yuan to 72880 yuan per ton, and the spot price remained stable [48]. Important Information - The U.S. government may acquire 10% of the equity of American Lithium, and the U.S. implemented a 15% tariff on EU - imported automobiles [49]. Trading Strategy - The price has a wide - range oscillation, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell straddle options [50]. Tin Market Review - The price of SHFE tin 2510 rose 0.51% to 272950 yuan per ton, and the spot price rose 500 yuan to 271500 yuan per ton [52]. Important Information - The Fed official called for interest rate cuts, OpenAI will expand its data center, and Indonesian tin production is expected to increase [52][53]. Trading Strategy - The price oscillates at a high level, wait and see for options [54].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product daily report dated September 25, 2024, focusing on cotton and cotton yarn [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,530 with a decrease of 25, trading volume of 246,394 hands (an increase of 67,330), and open interest of 525,141 (a decrease of 3,151) [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19,680 with a decrease of 30, trading volume of 656 hands (an increase of 229), and open interest of 771 (an increase of 305) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B price was 15,083 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; CY IndexC32S price was 20,615 yuan, unchanged [3] - Cot A price was 78.15 cents/pound, up 0.30 cents; FCY IndexC33S price was 21,464 yuan, up 22 yuan [3] Price Spreads - Cotton 1 - 5 month spread was -5, down 20;棉纱 1 - 5 month spread was -85, down 19,795 [3] - CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,150, down 5; 1% tariff内外棉价差 was 1,222, up 21 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market - In India, from September 18 - 24, 2025, the weekly rainfall in the main cotton - growing areas (93.6%) was 41.8mm, 8.7mm higher than normal and 15.7mm higher than last year [6] - In the US, the average temperature in the main cotton - growing areas (92.9% output share) was 79.07°F, 2.99°F higher than the same period last year; the average rainfall was 0.48 inches, 0.37 inches lower than last year [6] - This year, Xinjiang cotton output is expected to increase more than expected, while ginning mills' acquisition enthusiasm is average, and large - scale rush to buy is not expected. The expected acquisition price is around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg [7] Trading Logic - As new cotton is gradually being acquired, the market focus is shifting to the new cotton opening price. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, there will be some selling hedging pressure on the futures market [7] - In September, the market's peak season has arrived, but the improvement in downstream demand is limited, so this year's peak season is expected to be average, and its boosting effect on the futures market is also limited [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate mainly, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly weakly. It is recommended to trade opportunistically [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Wait and see [10] Cotton Yarn Industry - Last night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated to 13,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35. Cotton yarn futures declined significantly. The pure cotton yarn market generally remained unchanged, and the peak - season trading was not as good as previous years [9] - The cotton - fabric market lacks stamina, with small orders maintained and large orders scarce. There is price competition, and the price difference between different weavers for regular varieties is about 0.2 - 0.3 yuan/meter [12] Group 4: Options Option Data - On September 25, 2025, for CF601C14000.CZC, the closing price was 111.00, a decrease of 27.0%, with an implied volatility of 11.7% [14] - For CF601P13600.CZC, the closing price was 297.00, an increase of 20.7%, with an implied volatility of 10.6% [14] Volatility and Strategy - Today, the 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.4409, with a slight decrease in volatility. The implied volatility of relevant options varied [14] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton showed that both call and put trading volumes increased today. The option strategy is to wait and see [15][16]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2025 年 9 月 25 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： 联系方式： liuqiannan_qh@china stock.com.cn | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | | 5,470 | -8 | -0.15% | 386 | -280 | 2,436 | 14 | | SR01 | | 5,485 | -12 | -0.22% | 212,995 | -74573 | 431,349 | -7657 | | SR05 | | 5,454 | -10 | -0.18% | 12,335 | -9493 | 64,361 | 388 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼圈 | 日 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 每日早盘观察 2025 年 9 月 25 日 公众号二维码 银河农产品及衍生品 粕猪研究：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 棉禽苹果白糖研究： 刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 玉米花生：刘大勇 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 棉禽研究：王玺圳 期货从业证号： F03118729 投资咨询证号：Z0022817 油脂研究：张盼盼 期货从业证号： F03119783 投资咨询证号：Z0022908 每日早盘观察 大豆/粕类 【外盘情况】 CBOT 大豆指数下跌 0.7%至 1028.5 美分/蒲，CBOT 豆粕指数下跌 0.74%至 280.6 美金/短吨 【相关资讯】 1.USDA 出口销售前瞻：截至 2025 年 9 月 18 日当周，预计美国 2025/26 市场 年度大豆出口净销售为 60-160 万吨；预计美国 2024/25 市场年度豆粕出口净销售 介于 0-5 万吨，2025/26 市场年度豆粕出口净销售为 15-40 万吨。 2.油世界：欧盟将 EUDR ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The early - maturing apples have a poor good - fruit rate, and it is speculated that the Fuji apples may also have a poor good - fruit rate. The continuous rainfall in the western producing areas recently is expected to affect the quality. However, considering the current high price, the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9][10] - For trading strategies, expect new - season apples to have a poor good - fruit rate, but the current price is relatively high, so the price will mainly fluctuate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Spot price**: The Fuji apple price index was 109.50, up 0.07 from the previous trading day. The 6 - fruit average wholesale price was 7.00, up 0.09 from the previous trading day. Prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remained stable [3] - **Futures price**: AP01 closed at 8446, up 110 from the previous trading day; AP05 closed at 8312, up 63; AP10 closed at 8647, up 99. The spreads between different contracts also changed, e.g., AP01 - AP05 was 134, up 47 [3] - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 against AP01 was - 846, down 110 from the previous trading day; against AP05 was - 712, down 63 [3] 3.2 Market News and Views - **Inventory**: As of September 3, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 27.35 million tons, a decrease of 6.62 million tons from the previous week. The inventory shipment speed increased slightly due to the limited supply of early - maturing Fuji in the west [6] - **Customs data**: In July 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 5.36 million tons, a 44.95% increase from the previous month. The import volume was 1.77 million tons, a 5.73% decrease from the previous month and an 8.47% increase year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to July 2025 was 8.66 million tons, a 29.76% increase year - on - year [6] - **Market condition**: The domestic apple market was generally stable. High - quality cold - storage apples were in smooth trading, while medium - quality apples had poor sales. The supply of Hongjiangjun apples was abundant, but high - quality ones were in short supply. In the northwest producing areas, buyers' purchasing enthusiasm was fair, and the pre - harvest order prices remained high. The arrival volume at domestic wholesale markets was stable, and the mainstream transaction prices remained unchanged [7] - **Profit**: The profit of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples in the 2024 - 2025 season was 0.4 yuan per catty, a 0.1 - yuan decrease from the previous week [8] - **Spot price**: The mainstream price of apples in Qixia, Shandong was stable. The price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit - growers' apples was 3.0 - 4.5 yuan per catty, and that of third - grade apples was 2.5 - 2.6 yuan per catty. The transaction price of Hongjiangjun apples was 1.5 - 1.6 yuan per catty [8] 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The report includes multiple charts such as the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70 apples, AP contract main - contract basis, and spreads between different AP contracts, as well as charts related to apple arrival volume, 6 - fruit prices, cold - storage inventory, and cold - storage apple shipment volume [14][16][22]

Group 1: Overall Information - Report title: Agricultural Products Daily Report - Egg Report [2] - Date: September 25, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3372, up 18 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3389, down 3; JD09 closed at 3220, down 30 [3] - 01 - 05 spread was -17, up 21; 05 - 09 spread was 169, up 27; 09 - 01 spread was -152, down 48 [3] - 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.58, up 0.01; 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.14, down 0.01 [3] Spot Market - Main production area average price was 3.61 yuan/jin, down 0.06; main sales area average price was 3.77 yuan/jin, down 0.02 [3][6] - National mainstream prices were mostly stable, with some regions seeing price drops [6] - Main production area average price of culled chickens was 4.58 yuan/jin, up 0.03 [3][8] Profit Calculation - Profit per bird was 28.91 yuan, down 2.31 from the previous day [3] - Corn average price was 2365 yuan/ton, up 3; bean meal average price was 2988 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - In August, the national laying hen inventory was 1.365 billion, an increase of 90 million from the previous month and 5.9% year - on - year [7] - In the week of September 18, the national main production area culled chicken slaughter volume was 17.61 million, a decrease of 6% from the previous week [7] - As of the week of September 18, the national representative sales area egg sales volume was 7685 tons, an increase of 5.2% from the previous week [8] - As of the week of September 18, the production - link average inventory was 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.02 days; the circulation - link average inventory was 0.99 days, a decrease of 0.04 days [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - High inventory, low cost, and weak demand have led egg prices to the lowest level in recent years [9] - Short - term egg price rebound was mainly due to holiday stocking, but prices have started to fall as stocking ends [9] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The short - term downward space may be limited, and it is recommended to choose the right opportunity [10] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [10] Group 6: Related Charts - The report includes 15 charts showing various data such as egg prices, chicken苗 prices, culled chicken prices, and inventory [13][17][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The copper market shows a strengthening upward trend due to factors such as reduced global copper mine supply, decreased domestic inventories, and industry opposition to "involution" competition [3][4][7]. - The alumina market has limited downward space as prices are below the theoretical full - cost, but the fundamental oversupply situation restricts price rebound [11][12][15]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to maintain an oscillatory upward trend, with consumption showing resilience as indicated by the reduction in social inventories [18][21]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has alloy ingot spot prices remaining stable and slightly strong, with market expectations being positive [23][25]. - The zinc market may see a small surplus in September, and the overseas market's inventory reduction may support zinc prices, but attention should be paid to the overseas delivery situation [30][31]. - The lead market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation as multiple factors are intertwined [36][37]. - The nickel market is affected by positive news from Indonesia and the Philippines, and prices are oscillating strongly [40][42]. - The stainless steel market is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend, with cost support and slow inventory reduction [47][50]. - The tin market has limited supply improvement, weak demand, and prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [54][56]. - The industrial silicon market's price is affected by polysilicon production and market sentiment, and it is recommended to participate with long positions [61][63][64]. - The polysilicon market is expected to see a small increase in inventory, and it is recommended to trade with low - long band operations [66][67][69]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, with supply and demand factors both having an impact [71][72][74]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 82,710 yuan/ton, up 3.4%, and the Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 89,053 lots to 552,800 lots [2]. - Spot: The Shanghai copper spot reported a premium of 30 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Guangdong market reported a premium of 60 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the North China market reported a discount of 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **Important Information** - As of September 25, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.44 million tons to 1.401 million tons compared to Monday, and it was the first weekly decline after four consecutive weeks of increase [3]. - Goldman Sachs lowered its global copper mine supply forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with a total reduction of 525,000 tons in copper mine supply [4]. - **Logic Analysis** - The Grasberg incident has changed the long - term supply - demand structure, intensifying the tightness of copper mines. The industry's opposition to "involution" competition has increased market bullish sentiment [7]. - Consumption shows a weak peak season, and downstream acceptance of high prices is insufficient [7]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The price is rising rapidly, and the bullish trend is strengthening [8]. - Arbitrage: Continue to hold cross - market positive arbitrage [9]. - Options: Wait and see [10] 3.2 Alumina - **Market Review** - Futures: The alumina 2601 contract increased by 48 yuan to 2,942 yuan/ton [11]. - Spot: The alumina spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend [11]. - **Related Information** - As of September 25, the national alumina inventory was 3.797 million tons, an increase of 78,000 tons from last week [12]. - The strike at the Guinean bauxite mine and the reduction in the price of mainstream mines in Guinea and Australia have affected the market [12][14]. - **Logic Analysis** - The price is below the theoretical full - cost, with limited downward space, but the fundamental oversupply situation restricts price rebound [15]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The price rebounds slightly, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 3,000 yuan [16]. - Arbitrage: Reverse calendar spread arbitrage [17]. - Options: Wait and see [17] 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract increased by 80 yuan to 20,765 yuan/ton [18]. - Spot: The aluminum ingot spot prices in East China, South China, and Central China all increased [18]. - **Related Information** - The US imposed a 15% tariff on EU - imported automobiles and auto products [18]. - On September 25, the domestic aluminum ingot spot inventory decreased by 23,000 tons [18]. - The 500,000 - ton first - phase electrolytic aluminum project of Indonesia's Adaro - Liqin is expected to be put into production in stages at the end of 2025 [18]. - **Trading Logic** - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the market is cautious about further cuts. The rise in copper prices has driven the rebound of LME aluminum, and the reduction in social inventories shows consumption resilience [21]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Aluminum prices rebound with the sector [27]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [27]. - Options: Wait and see [27] 3.4 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review** - Futures: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 45 yuan to 20,365 yuan/ton [23]. - Spot: The ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot spot prices in some regions increased, while others remained flat [23]. - **Related Information** - The "Notice on Implementing Policies for Regulating Investment Promotion Behaviors" has an impact on the recycled aluminum industry [23]. - On September 24, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased [23]. - **Trading Logic** - Some enterprises are stocking up for the National Day holiday, and the demand for die - casting plants is increasing, with alloy ingot prices remaining stable and slightly strong [25]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The alloy futures price rebounds with aluminum prices [28]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [28]. - Options: Wait and see [28] 3.5 Zinc - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai zinc 2511 increased by 0.59% to 22,045 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index's positions decreased by 14,900 lots to 238,500 lots [29]. - Spot: The spot trading in the Shanghai market was average, with downstream enterprises having low enthusiasm for purchasing [29]. - **Related Information** - As of September 25, the domestic seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 0.80 million tons compared to September 18 [30]. - A smelter in South China resumed production on September 25, with a total impact of 4,000 tons during the maintenance period [30]. - The winning bid price of a zinc mine in North China decreased by 200 yuan/metal ton [30]. - **Logic Analysis** - The refined zinc supply in September may have a small reduction, but the monthly output is still at a relatively high level. The downstream's low - price purchasing has led to a small reduction in social inventories [31]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Affected by the external market, the Shanghai zinc price may oscillate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the LME inventory change [31]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [33]. - Options: Wait and see [33] 3.6 Lead - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai lead 2511 increased by 0.09% to 17,090 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index's positions decreased by 1,713 lots to 93,600 lots [32]. - Spot: The SMM1 lead average price remained unchanged, and the trading was average [35]. - **Related Information** - As of September 25, the SMM lead ingot five - region social inventory decreased by 2.13 million tons compared to September 18 [36]. - Some large - scale recycled lead smelters in Anhui and Inner Mongolia have no plans to resume production in the short term [36]. - **Logic Analysis** - The increase in lead prices has repaired the losses of recycled lead smelters, and some enterprises plan to resume production. The downstream may stock up before the National Day [37]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The lead price may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [38]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [38]. - Options: Wait and see [38] 3.7 Nickel - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2511 increased by 1,310 to 122,990 yuan/ton, and the index's positions increased by 13,909 lots [40]. - Spot: The premiums of Jinchuan nickel and Russian nickel changed [40]. - **Related Information** - The Chicago Fed President warned against continuous interest rate cuts [41]. - The Indonesian government sanctioned 25 nickel mining companies [41]. - Zhongwei Co., Ltd. has business cooperation with solid - state battery customers and has shipped nearly 50 tons of solid - state battery materials [42]. - **Logic Analysis** - The Indonesian copper mine accident and the suspension of some nickel mines in Indonesia have boosted nickel prices, but the impact on supply is limited. The net import of refined nickel in August decreased, and LME inventory is expected to increase [42]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Oscillate strongly [43]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [44]. - Options: Wait and see [45] 3.8 Stainless Steel - **Market Review** - Futures: The main SS2511 contract increased by 25 to 12,930 yuan/ton, and the index's positions decreased by 7,520 lots [47]. - Spot: The cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel prices are within a certain range [47]. - **Related Information** - On September 25, the national mainstream stainless steel social inventory decreased for the fifth consecutive week, mainly with the digestion of 400 - series resources [48]. - The US import tariff has a serious impact on the stainless steel market [48]. - **Logic Analysis** - The stainless steel production in September has increased significantly, but the demand has not shown seasonal peak characteristics. The slow reduction in inventory and cost support lead to an oscillatory trend [50]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation [51]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [52] 3.9 Tin - **Market Review** - Futures: The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 273,710 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,140 yuan/ton or 0.79%, and the positions increased by 2,908 lots to 53,950 lots [54]. - Spot: The spot tin ingot price increased, but the trading was poor, and the downstream demand was weak [54]. - **Related Information** - By 2035, the global 6G user penetration rate will be 22.3% [55]. - The Indonesian government suspended the mining activities of 190 mining enterprises, including about 14 tin - mining enterprises [55]. - **Logic Analysis** - The strong US dollar index restricts price increases. The supply of tin mines is still tight, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [56]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Maintain a high - level oscillation [59]. - Options: Wait and see [60] 3.10 Industrial Silicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated strongly, closing at 9,055 yuan/ton, up 0.72% [61]. - Spot: The industrial silicon spot price remained stable [62]. - **Related Information** - In August, the export volume of industrial silicon products in China increased year - on - year and month - on - month [63]. - **Comprehensive Analysis** - The current inventory structure of industrial silicon is "low at both ends and high in the middle", and the production and market sentiment of polysilicon in October have a greater impact on prices [64]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Participate with long positions [65]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [65]. - Arbitrage: None [65] 3.11 Polysilicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The polysilicon futures main contract oscillated, closing at 51,365 yuan/ton, up 0.89% [66]. - Spot: The polysilicon spot price remained stable, and different types of polysilicon have different price ranges [66]. - **Related Information** - On September 24, Xinjiang Dongfang Hope's first - phase polysilicon production line started annual maintenance, and the third - phase project is ready for maintenance [67]. - **Comprehensive Analysis** - The polysilicon spot price is stable, and the 11 - contract faces the pressure of warehouse receipt cancellation. The demand in October is expected to weaken, but production will also decrease, and a small inventory increase is expected [69]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Trade with low - long band operations [70]. - Arbitrage: Reverse spread arbitrage between the 2511 and 2512 contracts [70]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [70] 3.12 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review** - Futures: The main 2511 contract increased by 680 to 74,040 yuan/ton, the index's positions decreased by 1,551 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts increased by 560 to 40,309 tons [71]. - Spot: The SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices decreased [71]. - **Important Information** - The US government is seeking to acquire up to 10% of the equity of American Lithium Corp [72]. - The US imposed a 15% tariff on EU - imported automobiles and auto products [72]. - **Logic Analysis** - On the supply side, the lack of processing profit and limited increase in lithium ore imports in September may affect production. On the demand side, although orders are full, the increase in the customer - supplied ratio may reduce downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Lithium prices are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern [74]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation [75]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [75]. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle combination [75]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector maintained a volatile trend today, with general spot steel transactions and ongoing pre - holiday restocking. The overall output of the five major steel products increased this week, but hot - rolled production decreased. Affected by supply pressure, the apparent demand for hot - rolled weakened, while the demand for rebar continued to recover. With the cooling weather, the downstream demand improved, leading to an overall increase in the apparent demand of the five major steel products. Steel inventories entered an inflection point, with the five major steel products starting to destock and the inventory accumulation rate of hot - rolled slowing down. It is expected that the molten iron output will remain high this week. The approaching typhoon in South China and the upcoming double festivals may affect some construction site demands. However, with the cooling weather, steel demand may recover to some extent after the festivals. Since mid - September, there have been many market rumors, causing the futures market to rise rapidly, but currently, there is a lack of further upward drivers. Pre - holiday long - position funds may leave the market one after another. Recently, rebar production has resumed, so there is still pressure on steel prices, and there may be a risk of decline about a week after the festivals. If the downstream demand recovers beyond expectations in October, steel prices may rise further. In addition, the content of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will also affect market fluctuations. Subsequently, it is necessary to pay attention to the peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3260 yuan (+10), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3190 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3400 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3330 yuan (-) [6] Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Maintain a volatile trend - Arbitrage: It is recommended to continue holding the 1 - 5 positive spread and continue holding the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] - **Important Information** - On September 25, the China Index Academy monitored that the total bond financing of the real estate industry in August 2025 was 55.31 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3%. From May to July, the monthly financing amount showed an increasing trend, but in August, the monthly financing amount decreased year - on - year. The average bond financing interest rate was 2.51%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.01 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points [8] - In August 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics was 145.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3% [10] Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, contract spreads, and profit margins, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind. These charts cover different contract periods (01, 05, 10) and different types of profit margins (disk profit, cash profit, etc.) [16][18][20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The ferroalloy futures prices generally rose on September 25. Driven by the overall commodity market sentiment and cost - side factors, the prices are expected to be strong in the short term, but the upside is limited by high supply [7]. - For silicon ferroalloy, although the short - term negative feedback risk has eased and the overall commodity market sentiment is positive, the problem of high supply still exists [7]. - For manganese silicon, the short - term demand is relatively stable, and the cost - side drives the price to be strong in the short term, but the high supply also restricts the upside [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5786, up 44 (0.77%) daily and 30 weekly, with a trading volume of 201,194 (up 11,513 daily) and an open interest of 188,023 (down 10,222 daily). The closing price of the SM main contract was 5938, up 22 (0.37%) daily and down 32 weekly, with a trading volume of 219,803 (up 50,391 daily) and an open interest of 332,429 (down 1344 daily) [4]. - **Spot Data**: The spot price of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5480, unchanged daily and up 30 weekly. The spot price of silicon - manganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5700, down 30 daily and 30 weekly. Different regions showed different price changes [4]. - **Basis/Spread Data**: For silicon ferroalloy, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 306, down 44 daily and unchanged weekly. For manganese silicon, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 238, down 52 daily and up 2 weekly. The SF - SM spread was - 152, up 22 daily and 62 weekly [4]. - **Raw Material Data**: The price of Australian manganese ore lumps in Tianjin was 39.8, down 0.2 daily and 0.4 weekly. The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore from South Africa was 34.2, unchanged daily and down 0.1 weekly. The price of blue charcoal small materials in Shaanxi was 700, unchanged daily and up 40 weekly [4]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Driven by the overall commodity sentiment and cost - side, it is strong in the short term, but the upside is limited by high supply. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - **Options**: Sell a straddle option combination [8]. - **Important Information**: United Mining (CML) announced its November 2025 offer to China for Australian lumps (Mn>46% Fe<6% Si02<18%) at 4.65 US dollars per ton - degree, up 0.08 US dollars per ton - degree month - on - month. Comilog's November 2025 offer for Gabonese lumps shipped to China was 4.35 US dollars per ton - degree (up 0.08) [9][10]. Related Attachments - Multiple charts are provided, including the price trends of ferroalloy main contracts, basis, inter - month spreads, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon, showing data changes over different time periods [11][14][15]

大宗商品研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2025 年 09 月 25 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 805.5 | 803.5 | 2.0 | I01-I05 | 20.0 | 20.5 | -0.5 | | DCE05 | 785.5 | 783.0 | 2.5 | I05-I09 | 20.5 | 21.0 | -0.5 | | DCE09 | 765.0 | 762.0 | 3.0 | I09-I01 | -40.5 | -41.5 | 1.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 783 | 783 | 0 | 853 | 41 | 62 | 83 | | 纽曼粉 | 790 | 790 | 0 | 845 | 34 | 54 | 75 | | 麦克粉 | 785 | 788 | -3 | 852 | 40 | 61 | 82 | ...