Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current weak and stable state of the domestic fundamentals continues, with the GDP growth rate declining quarter - by - quarter this year and inflation recovery being structural. The market's expectations for next year's economic growth and inflation readings have improved significantly. However, the central bank's policy rate cut threshold is high, and the marginal utility of "broad money" is reduced. The influence of institutional behavior has increased. Before the "Two Sessions" in March and Trump's visit to China in April next year, the bond market may be under pressure, and the 10Y Treasury yield may rise to the 1.9 - 2.0% range. After the first quarter, if the fundamentals fall short of expectations, the yield will likely return to the downward channel [2][3][135]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Bond Market Review - From the beginning of the year to mid - March: The central bank's liquidity management was in a tight balance, and the market's loose expectations were revised. The 10Y Treasury yield first fell and then rose, reaching around 1.9% by mid - March [7]. - From late March to the end of June: The market's capital became looser, and Sino - US trade frictions recurred. The 10Y yield fluctuated downward to around 1.8% [7]. - From early July to late September: The stock - bond seesaw effect emerged, and policy disturbances increased. The bond market oscillated and adjusted, and the Treasury yield continued to rise [7]. - From early October to the end of the year: Expectations dominated the macro - narrative, and concerns about the supply and demand of ultra - long bonds intensified. The bond market sentiment was cautious, and the curve slope steepened [8]. 2. External Demand Supports Production, while Domestic Demand Needs to be Boosted - In terms of PMI, the domestic economic fundamentals continued to recover in 2025, but the upward slope was still gentle. Production and external demand were resilient, while domestic demand was weak. By November, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was +6.0%, and the service production index increased by 5.6%. Exports from January to November increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and the trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion. However, domestic fixed - asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods had relatively low absolute growth rates, and the real - estate industry dragged down investment [22][27][31]. 3. Price Indicators are Repairing at a Low Level, and Inflation Expectations have Improved - This year's inflation readings repaired at a low level. By November, CPI was +0.7% year - on - year, and core CPI was +1.2%. PPI was - 2.2% year - on - year, with a positive monthly - on - monthly growth in November. The market's inflation expectations have changed significantly. "Anti - involution" provided a policy bottom for some industrial product prices, and potential imported inflation may accelerate the repair of domestic PPI [51][54][61]. 4. Social Financing Depends on the Government Sector, and the Reasons for M1 Repair are Diverse - Government bond financing supported the overall social financing this year. The cumulative net financing scale of national and local bonds was about 13.76 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 2.59 trillion yuan. The credit expansion momentum of the private sector was still weak, with a differentiation between the household and enterprise sectors. M1 growth accelerated, mainly driven by the enterprise sector. Fiscal policy is expected to support social financing next year, and the probability of monetary policy intensification due to weak financial data is low [70][75][87]. 5. The Central Bank's Attitude of Caring for Liquidity Remains Unchanged, but the Threshold for Policy Rate Cuts is High - The central bank's short - term fund injection was effective, and the influence of government bond issuance on the capital market was controllable. However, the central bank's policy rate cut threshold was high due to internal net interest margin pressure and the low marginal utility of "broad money." The central bank further clarified the five - group interest rate comparison relationships, which will have an impact on the bond market [91][107][111]. 6. The "Asset Shortage" in the Bond Market has Eased, and Concerns about the Supply and Demand of Long - Term Bonds have Increased - Policy - driven stock - bond asset allocation rebalancing and the rise of other asset prices have alleviated the "asset shortage" in the bond market. Some regulatory policy adjustments have inhibited institutional bond trading. The market's concerns about the potential imbalance between the supply and demand of ultra - long bonds are expected to continue, but banks and insurance institutions may play a supporting role, and the central bank may also take action [113][122][125]. 7. Speculation on Next Year's Macroeconomic Policies - The central economic work conference in December emphasized the continuation of "more proactive fiscal policy" and "moderately loose monetary policy," but the policy intensity has converged. It is expected that there may be one interest rate cut next year, with a 10bp reduction in the policy rate, and 1 - 2 reserve requirement ratio cuts, each of 0.25 percentage points. The fiscal deficit rate is expected to remain at 4.0%, and the expenditure will be more focused on people's livelihoods [131][132][133]. 8. Viewpoint Summary and Market Outlook - Considering the optimistic expectations and concerns about the supply and demand of ultra - long bonds before March and April next year, the bond market may be under pressure. After the first quarter, if the fundamentals are disappointing, the yield may decline. In terms of operations, it is recommended to be cautious in the first quarter and look for long - buying opportunities later. Curve trading has a logical basis, and arbitrage depends on sentiment or events [135][136][137].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum price is expected to show a trending pattern, while alumina is on a long - term downward path. The financial attribute of aluminum will continue to strongly drive the price in 2026, and the global supply - demand shortage of aluminum will support the price. Alumina will maintain a cost - based pricing logic due to an oversupply situation [6][86]. - The consumption of aluminum will grow at a low rate but still have bright spots, such as in energy transformation, lightweight applications, and the export of aluminum - processed products. However, traditional industries like real estate and home appliances may still perform weakly [34][54]. - The supply of recycled cast aluminum alloy will be affected by raw material shortages and policy uncertainties, and its price will generally follow the trend of the aluminum price [89]. Summary by Directory Part One: Preface Summary 1. Market Review - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Overseas tariffs, monetary policies, and the "de - dollarization" trend have affected the aluminum price. The supply - demand contradiction and low inventory have supported the price, and the cost has decreased while the profit has increased [5]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The casting aluminum alloy futures were successfully launched this year. The price of aluminum alloy is highly correlated with the aluminum price, but the spot price of casting aluminum alloy has difficulty following the increase in the aluminum price [5]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand situation at home and abroad has turned to oversupply, and the price has declined. The industry is shifting profits to the ore end, and there are basis trading opportunities [5]. 2. Market Outlook - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The financial attribute will continue to strongly drive the aluminum price. The supply - demand shortage and low inventory will give the price greater elasticity [6]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply - demand pattern will remain slightly oversupplied, and the price will generally follow the metal sector and the aluminum price. There are risks in basis and cross - variety spreads [6]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation will continue, and the price will maintain a downward - selling strategy. There are policy risks, and basis trading opportunities still exist [6]. 3. Strategy Recommendation - **Unilateral**: Be bullish on the aluminum price on dips; the absolute price of casting aluminum alloy will follow the aluminum price, and pay attention to basis and variety spread opportunities before the expiration of warehouse receipts; maintain a downward - selling strategy for alumina, and pay attention to price elasticity risks driven by policy expectations [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the expansion of the monthly spread of aluminum at low inventory levels, the convergence of the basis at the end of the off - season, and the repeated arbitrage opportunities in the internal - external price difference; for aluminum alloy, pay attention to the arbitrage opportunities in the range of a discount of 100 - 1400 yuan to the aluminum price and the spot - futures arbitrage opportunities; there are basis trading opportunities for alumina when the warehouse receipts are low and before expiration [7]. Part Two: Supply Rigidity and Global Shortage, Aluminum Price in a Trending Pattern 1. 2025 Aluminum Market Review - The aluminum price showed a volatile upward pattern in 2025, with the Shanghai Aluminum main contract price ranging from a minimum of 19,000 yuan to a maximum of 22,980 yuan, an annual increase of 13.8% [11]. - The price increase in the first and fourth quarters was mainly driven by LME aluminum, while in the second and third quarters, the price rebounded steadily after a decline [12][13]. 2. 2026 - 2030 Global Electrolytic Aluminum Supply Outlook - **Domestic**: The supply - side constraints on domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity still exist. The capacity will reach the theoretical ceiling in 2026, and the supply elasticity will decrease significantly. The production in 2026 and 2027 will have limited growth [20][21][22]. - **Overseas**: The overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity is expected to increase by 820,000 tons in 2026 and 1.65 million tons in 2027. The new - investment capacity is mainly concentrated in Indonesia [24][25]. - **Imports**: China will still rely on imported aluminum ingots in 2026, and the net import volume is expected to increase to 2.5 million tons [33]. 3. Aluminum Consumption with Low Growth but Bright Spots - **Export of Aluminum - processed Products**: The export volume of aluminum - processed products in 2025 is expected to be about 10.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.55%. It is expected to turn positive in 2026, with an increase of about 400,000 tons [34]. - **Domestic Aluminum Demand**: The proportion of domestic aluminum demand in the total apparent demand increased in 2025. The growth of domestic demand was mainly in the first half of the year, and the demand in the energy transformation and lightweight application fields will be a stable growth source [41][54]. - **Difference between Apparent Demand and Actual Output**: The apparent demand of aluminum is significantly higher than the actual output of aluminum - processed materials, mainly due to the inventory in the intermediate links of the industry [45]. - **Traditional Industries**: The demand for aluminum in the real estate industry will still be weak, and the home appliance industry is expected to have a mild growth in air - conditioner production. The "aluminum - for - copper" substitution is ongoing [59][65]. 4. Certainties and Uncertainties of Aluminum - The global aluminum supply - demand gap may continue in the next five years, which will increase the price elasticity of aluminum. Tariffs and trade barriers mainly affect the price difference between regions, and the EU's CBAM policy may increase the trading cost [69][70]. - The aluminum market has a weak tolerance for supply - side uncertainties. Overseas electrolytic aluminum plants face risks such as accidents, carbon tariffs, and energy supply, and the climate phenomenon may also affect production and demand [71]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory Expectations - **Balance Sheet**: The global economic growth is expected to be slow from 2025 to 2030. The domestic aluminum demand in 2026 is expected to increase by 2.54%. The global aluminum supply - demand gap is expected to be 570,000 tons in 2026 and 330,000 tons in 2027 [72]. - **Inventory**: Overseas, the LME aluminum spot basis has been in a premium state, and the new regulatory rules may make the price increase more stable. Domestically, the overall inventory is expected to remain stable, but attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly spread and basis during peak seasons [79][84]. 6. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Factors Affecting Aluminum Price The price of aluminum is affected by both financial and commodity attributes. In 2026, the resonance of these two attributes may push the aluminum price to break through previous highs, and the smelting profit is expected to be considerable [86]. Part Three: Recycled Cast Aluminum Alloy Expected to Follow the Aluminum Price 1. Supply - Demand of Recycled Aluminum Alloy - **Supply**: In 2025, the total built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy reached 18.67 million tons, with a low production rate due to raw material shortages, price inversion, and policy disturbances. In 2026, about 1 million tons of new capacity are expected to be put into operation, but the supply growth is still restricted [89]. - **Demand**: The demand for recycled aluminum alloy is mainly from the transportation industry, especially in the automotive sector. The demand growth rate is expected to slow down in 2026 [94][95]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The industry is expected to face a shortage in 2025 and 2026. The futures market may drive demand, but the expiration of warehouse receipts may widen the basis [102]. 2. Scrap Aluminum Raw Materials - The global scrap aluminum trade has been growing steadily. China's scrap aluminum is in short supply and relies on imports. The application of scrap aluminum in non - alloy products is increasing, which will keep the scrap aluminum in short supply and narrow the refined - scrap price difference [105][108]. 3. Price and Spread of Recycled Aluminum Alloy The price of recycled aluminum alloy is highly correlated with the aluminum price. In 2026, it is expected to follow the aluminum price, but the seasonal performance of the spread may be weaker than in previous years [113][114]. Part Four: Alumina in an Oversupply Situation with a Long - term Downward Path 1. 2025 Alumina Market Review The alumina price showed a downward trend in 2025, mainly due to the improvement of the supply - demand situation. The price rebounded in May and July but then continued to decline. The domestic production capacity and output increased significantly [120][121][124]. 2. Alumina Supply Outlook - **Domestic**: The domestic alumina production capacity is expected to increase in 2026, with a theoretical maximum output of 103.68 - 104.68 million tons. After considering dynamic balance, the output is expected to be about 99.45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8% [127][128]. - **Overseas**: The overseas alumina production is expected to increase by about 7% to 61.73 million tons in 2026 [133]. 3. Alumina Supply - Demand Balance Expectation The growth rate of electrolytic aluminum production is not significant, and there will be an oversupply of about 4 million tons at home and abroad in 2026. The alumina price will mainly follow the cost - based pricing logic, but the price may rebound if the supply - demand surplus narrows [141]. 4. Bauxite with Significant Increment and Expected Price Decline In 2025, the domestic bauxite production increased slightly, and the import volume increased significantly. The supply of bauxite is expected to be in surplus in 2026, and the price is expected to continue to decline, which will drive the alumina price down [145][153][154].

| | | | 美国虹吸效应下，铜价重心上移 | | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 铜市场综述 | 3 | | 一、 | 行情回顾 | 3 | | 二、 | 行情展望 | 3 | | 第二部分 | 供应扰动增加 | 5 | | 第三部分 | 消费端 | 16 | | 一、 | | 新兴消费高速增长 16 | | 二、 | 传统消费收缩 | 23 | | 三、 | 消费端总结 | 26 | | 第五部分 | 供需平衡表 | 26 | | 免责声明 | | 28 | 有色金属研发报告 铜 12 月报 2025 年 12 月 31 日 美国虹吸效应下，铜价重心上移 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 2025 年铜价先跌后涨，重心不断上移，全年涨幅近 40%。1-3 月铜价 缓慢上行，4 月初短线快速下跌，最低跌至 8105 美元/吨，6 月收复前期的 全部跌幅。9 月下旬铜价突破年度压力位 10160 美元/吨，10 月 29 日价格 首次 ...

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 市场回顾 | 3 | | 第三部分 | 动力增速放缓，储能不负众望 | 3 | | 一、新能源汽车市场增速放缓 | | 4 | | 二、储能经济性带动爆发式增长 | | 7 | | 三、企业思路切换至"保供"模式，可能收紧流通货源 | | 9 | | 第四部分 | 供应弹性仍需时间释放 | 11 | | 一、矿山新投产、爬产和复产增加供应弹性 | | 11 | | 二、冶炼产能仍有扩张，自有矿比例提高 | | 12 | | 第五部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 14 | | 免责声明 | | 15 | 有色板块研发报告 碳酸锂年报 2025 年 12 月 31 日 锂价中枢上移，或有阶段错配 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 2025 年锂价走势可以年中为界，分为清晰的两半。上半年延续过剩的 一致预期，价格跌至锂辉石的现金成本附近，据称已有海外矿山计划减产， 但还未及做出减产决策，下半年行情就已经启动。三季度动储双轮驱动，叠 加新矿产资源法对采矿 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, without the disturbance of Indonesia's nickel ore quota, the nickel surplus is expected to slightly narrow to 245,000 tons, but the refined nickel surplus will increase by another 30,000 tons, intensifying inventory pressure [5][13][98]. - The surplus is concentrating on low - cost deliverable products, which may force nickel prices down to seek support from the cost of the wet - process production line [5][13][98]. - There are potential upward risks in stages. If the macro and industrial sectors resonate in the first half of the year and are accompanied by capital inflows, the upward trend at the end of 2025 may continue. However, if the nickel ore quota increases or the inventory becomes explicit, there may be opportunities for high - altitude short - selling in the second half of the year [5][98] - The recommended trading strategies are a unilateral strategy of rising first and then falling with a rising bottom, and a bull spread strategy for options [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, the nickel price shock center shifted down after the trade war, hitting a five - year low in December and then rebounding due to Indonesia's policy. The volatility significantly narrowed compared to the previous year. The annual high - low difference was about 20% [4][9]. - Stainless steel prices followed nickel prices but were more rigidly supported by the cost of Indonesian nickel iron. The terminal demand was weak, showing a narrow - range shock trend with a high - low difference of about 12% throughout the year [4][10] 3.2 Excess Concentration on Low - Cost Deliverable Products, Beware of Indonesia's Policy Risks - **Supply - Side Growth Concentrates on Wet - Process Production Lines, with Fire - Process Production Almost Stagnant** - In 2026, the growth rate of refined nickel is expected to increase to 6.8%, becoming the highest - growth category. China and Indonesia will have new production capacity, while some European and American enterprises will also expand production [18][19]. - The expansion of MHP production capacity conforms to the new - energy orientation, helping to expand production and reduce costs for refined nickel and nickel sulfate. It is conservatively estimated that Indonesia's MHP output will increase by 28% to 570,000 tons in 2026 [27]. - The growth of nickel pig iron (NPI) is almost stagnant. Affected by Indonesia's policy and low profits, the growth rate of Indonesian NPI in 2026 is only expected to be 2.4% [18][34][36]. - **Indonesia's Nickel Ore Quota Policy Risks Still Need Attention** - The supply forecast for 2026 is based on the assumption of sufficient nickel ore. In 2026, the quota may be set at 250 million tons, which is lower than the demand. However, there is still flexibility in the later stage [46][49]. - If the quota remains at 250 million tons, Indonesia needs to import 70 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines, which will increase the cost of nickel products and may support the bottom of nickel prices [49][52] 3.3 Demand Hard to Find Drivers, with Potential Bright Spots - **Economic Growth Slows, Interest Rate Cuts Benefit the Non - Ferrous Metals Sector** - In 2026, the global economic growth will further slow down. The growth rate of developed economies is expected to be around 1.5%, and that of emerging markets and developing economies is slightly higher than 4% [59]. - China's economy is still at the bottom, and it is expected that fiscal policy tools will play a role in the "15th Five - Year Plan" [59]. - **Stainless Steel Supply and Demand in Tight Balance, Cost Expected to Increase** - In terms of demand, China's stainless steel demand is expected to grow by 4% in 2026. Domestic consumption may be supported by subsidies, while exports may decline [64][65]. - In terms of supply, new production capacity is limited. In 2026, nickel and chromium raw materials may rise, increasing the cost of stainless steel. If demand improves, the price center may move up; otherwise, it may suppress production capacity utilization [68][71] - **The Proportion of Ternary Batteries Stabilizes, and New Productivity Provides Potential Growth Points** - The growth rate of the new - energy vehicle market slows down. In China, due to subsidy withdrawal, the growth rate of new - energy passenger vehicle sales is expected to be 16%. In the overseas market, the US market is weak, while the European market is expected to maintain growth [78][79][83]. - The proportion of ternary batteries has fallen below 20%. Although it faces challenges, it may become a potential growth point from 2027 - 2030 [88][91][93] 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance and Trading Strategy - In 2025, the estimated surplus of primary nickel is 277,000 tons. In 2026, without the impact of Indonesia's nickel ore quota, the surplus is expected to narrow to 245,000 tons, but the refined nickel surplus will increase by 30,000 tons [98][99]. - The trading logic is to consider the continuation of the upward trend at the end of 2025 in the first half of 2026 if the macro and industry resonate. In the second half, consider high - altitude short - selling if the nickel ore quota increases or the inventory becomes explicit [5][98]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the strategy of a technology - powered nation combined with the AI wave will remain the main theme of the A - share market. The listing of technology leaders like Changxin Technology will strengthen the contribution of technology stocks to the index. Small - cap indexes are expected to perform well, and the market will maintain a slow - bull trend despite fluctuations from valuation and capital factors [6]. - In the assumption of constant valuation, the market value of the Shanghai Composite 50 Index in 2026 may rise by 5% - 10%, the CSI 300 by 8% - 18%, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 by 18% - 26% [54]. - In 2026, the phenomenon of stock index futures trading at a discount will still exist. The cost advantage of short - position holders moving from the current - month contract to the quarterly - month contract is evident, and the main trading and holding contracts have shifted to quarterly - month contracts [60]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Market Review Stock Market - In 2025, the A - share market showed a slow - bull trend of fluctuating upward. The AI industry chain, robotics, and non - ferrous metal sectors led by artificial intelligence rose significantly, but there were differences in the performance of different indexes. By December 30, the annual increase of the CSI 300 Index was 18.21%, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 13.1%, the CSI 500 Index rose 30.27%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 27.52% [5][11]. Stock Index Futures - In 2025, the discount of stock index futures widened compared to the previous year, showing a cyclical pattern of convergence at the beginning and end of the year and expansion in the middle. The average daily discounts of the four IM contracts reached record highs. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures continued to grow steadily. IM was the most - concerned variety, with trading volume and open interest increasing by 19.4% and 20.4% respectively. The trading volume and open interest of IC recovered after hitting a bottom in April, and the annual average daily trading volume increased by 3.7%. The trading volume and open interest of IH both declined, while the trading volume of IF was stable and the open interest increased by 5.2% [13][16]. 3.2 Future Outlook and Investment Strategy Index Space Calculation - In 2025, there were significant differences in the performance of major indexes, which were mainly due to differences in industry indexes. The non - ferrous metal and communication sectors had annual increases of 93% and 87% respectively, while the food and beverage and coal sectors had negative returns. The weight of the electronics industry in major indexes increased significantly. In 2025, electronics was the most - contributing industry to the four major indexes [21][24][30]. - In 2026, the consensus forecast for the profit growth of each index is 5% for the Shanghai Composite 50, 9% for the CSI 300, 22% for the CSI 500, and 23% for the CSI 1000. Considering industry growth and weight, the possible market - value growth of the Shanghai Composite 50 is 18%, the CSI 300 is 26%, the CSI 500 is 36%, and the CSI 1000 is 36%. After adjustment, in the assumption of constant valuation, the market - value increase of the Shanghai Composite 50 Index in 2026 may be 5% - 10%, the CSI 300 may be 8% - 18%, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may be 18% - 26% [45][50][54]. Stock Index Futures Basis Outlook - In 2025, the basis of stock index futures generally showed a significant increase in discount. The main reason is that the market provided large fluctuations, making the performance of individual stocks and indexes differentiated, and the excess return of the neutral strategy was significant, allowing it to continue hedging even with a large discount. In 2026, the discount phenomenon of stock index futures will still exist. The cost of short - position holders in stock index futures for contract roll - over has increased significantly, and since October 2024, the main trading and holding contracts have shifted to quarterly - month contracts, which reduces the operation risk of investors [55][58][61]. Policy, Capital, and Valuation Outlook - Since the release of the new "Nine - Article National Plan", policies have clearly supported the market. In 2026, the policy focus will shift to "actively contributing to high - quality economic development and a good start of the 15th Five - Year Plan", while maintaining stable development. In 2025, long - term capital continued to enter the market, and the margin balance continued to grow, keeping the market capital abundant. However, the reversal of the M1 - M2 spread at the end of the year and the difficulty of further interest - rate cuts will have an impact on investors' psychology. In 2025, as the market continued to rise, the stock index valuation was no longer cheap, which will suppress the performance of the index and increase market volatility [67][70][75]. Future Strategy - Unilateral: Given the slow - bull trend, conduct trading based on fluctuations. - Arbitrage: Go long on IM/IC main contracts and short ETFs. - Options: Adopt the bull - spread strategy [7].

中国成品油周报 研究员：童川 期货从业证号：F3071222 投资咨询证号：Z0017010 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析和数据追踪 | 4 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析 ◼ 市场概况： 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 供应端，主营炼厂开工持稳，本周无炼厂新开停工变化。山东地炼开工平稳，部分炼厂二次装置负荷调整。主营汽柴产量维稳，地炼汽柴产量 下行。柴汽比上行0.01至1.49。需求端，本周山东炼厂汽柴周均产销率均持续回升但仍未达产销平衡。汽柴价格均跌，市场中下游采购积极性提 升，市场情绪好转，汽柴车单成交量上行但船单成交有限。库存，商业库存汽油累库，柴油环比持平。汽油1083万吨，环比+9万吨（+0.8%）； 柴油维稳在1239万吨。地炼库存，原油配额下发后地炼开工高位维持，同时本周由于 ...

高硫稳定弱势，低硫供应回升 研究员：吴晓蓉 期货从业证号：F03108405 投资咨询证号：Z0021537 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 低硫近端供应环比增长，各主要供应地区供应均有回升预期。Al-Zour炼厂一套CDU确定回归，另一套CDU及渣油脱硫装置预期于12 月底回归，低硫供应初步恢复。Dangote炼厂Dangote炼厂汽油装置检修计划启动，近端低硫出口已开始回升，新招标流出。南苏丹 接管赫格利格油田的主要安全控制权，能源供应预期逐步恢复，Senning1月新低硫原油招标发布。 高硫现货窗口现货贴水低位维持。高硫四季度预期稳定弱势维持 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the overcapacity situation in the asphalt industry remains unchanged, but the pace of capacity clearance accelerates, with no new capacity added. Supply will tighten month - on - month, and resources will concentrate on refineries with quotas and industrial chain integration advantages. - As the first year of the "14th Five - Year Plan", the start of terminal demand for asphalt is slow, with the focus shifting to stock maintenance. There is an expected increase in demand for modified asphalt. - Inventory levels are expected to be low in the first half of the year supported by low supply, but the de - stocking speed will slow down in the second half due to weak demand, resulting in a relatively high inventory level at the end of the year. - The price trend is expected to fluctuate according to seasonal patterns [5][48]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In 2025, the asphalt market was influenced by cost, policy, and supply - demand patterns. In the first quarter, low start - up, low inventory, and the release of winter storage demand drove up spot prices. In February, weakening oil prices, slower - than - expected post - holiday demand recovery, and raw material premium fluctuations led to a decline in futures prices. In the second quarter, oil prices fluctuated widely, and asphalt futures prices followed suit. In the second half of the year, prices declined. In the third quarter, the market was "strong in the north and weak in the south", and in the fourth quarter, supply exceeded demand, leading to rising inventory and falling prices [4][12][13]. 2. Fundamental Situation Supply Overview - In 2025, China's total asphalt production is expected to be 28.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 260,000 tons or 10%. The growth mainly came from local refineries and PetroChina, while Sinopec continued to contract. - In 2026, it is expected that Sinopec's production will continue to decline by about 14% to around 5.4 million tons, and PetroChina's production will decline slightly by 0.6%. Local refineries with crude oil quotas will make more flexible production decisions, and the production of local refineries is expected to increase by 1.8% to 14.71 million tons [21][23][24]. Demand Overview - In 2025, asphalt market demand was weak, showing the characteristic of "not prosperous in the peak season and weaker in the off - season". Climate, capital status, and regional project progress are the main factors affecting demand. - In 2026, as the first year of the "14th Five - Year Plan", highway investment and downstream asphalt demand are expected to start slowly, accounting for 18% of the entire five - year plan, with an estimated total demand of 28.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8% [34][35][36]. Inventory and Valuation - In 2025, inventory remained low throughout the year, fluctuating due to seasonal demand, refinery production adjustments, weather disturbances, and winter storage policies. - In terms of cost, international crude oil prices showed a downward trend throughout the year, reducing refinery raw material costs. Refineries with crude oil quotas had relatively low comprehensive costs and achieved profitability in some periods, while refineries without quotas suffered deep losses and gradually stopped production [40][41][42]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations Future Outlook - Supply: The long - term overcapacity situation remains unchanged, but the exit of backward production capacity accelerates. In 2026, there will be no new capacity, and supply will likely remain in a tight - balance pattern. - Demand: The overall demand in the "14th Five - Year Plan" is expected to be the same as that in the "13th Five - Year Plan". In 2026, demand starts slowly, and there is an expected increase in demand for modified asphalt. - Price: The price trend is expected to fluctuate seasonally, with potential pressure in the first half of the year and a possible rebound in the second half [48]. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: The BU main contract will fluctuate widely throughout the year, with an operating range of 2700 - 3300. - Arbitrage: In the first half of the year, trade raw material risks and overweight asphalt in oil products. In the second half of the year, if demand is less than expected, short the asphalt - crude oil spread. - Options: Wait and see [6][48][49]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, for high - sulfur fuel oil, focus on the reshaping of global supply logistics after the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and Western sanctions. The total external supply of high - sulfur fuel oil will increase, but the supply to Asia will be gradually diverted. In the second quarter, there may be a short - term gap in Asian high - sulfur fuel oil after diversion, which, combined with the Middle East's peak - season power generation stockpiling, may strongly support the Asian high - sulfur price in the short term [4][67]. - In 2026, for low - sulfur fuel oil, pay attention to the changes in facilities in various regions. The interference from the Sudanese civil war on South Sudan's supply is expected to weaken. Al - Zour refinery's operations will return to stability, and its exports will increase. Dangote refinery's gasoline unit will return in January 2026, and Nigeria's monthly low - sulfur exports are expected to be between 20 and 30 million tons. The Chinese market's monthly output will remain around 1 million tons. The low - sulfur fuel oil demand for shipping is stable without specific drivers, and the power - generation economy is poor [67]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Preface and Market Overview 3.1.1. Market Review in 2025 - High - sulfur fuel oil showed a strong - in - the - first - half and weak - in - the - second - half trend. In the first quarter, the supply from major regions such as Russia, Iran, and Mexico was short. In the second quarter, supply increased, and the summer power - generation demand started. In the second half of the year, high inventory suppressed prices [4][9]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil was affected by the changes in energy facilities in several supply regions, and the market price fluctuated weakly with lower volatility than in previous years [4][12]. 3.1.2. Market Outlook for 2026 - High - sulfur fuel oil: Pay attention to the reshaping of supply logistics. The total supply will increase, but the supply to Asia will be diverted. The second quarter may see a short - term price increase in Asia [4][67]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Focus on facility changes in various regions [4][67]. 3.1.3. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Before February 2026, there is an oversupply pressure for low - sulfur fuel oil. Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. For high - sulfur fuel oil, focus on the Russia - Ukraine situation [5][68]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the FU5 - 9 positive spread arbitrage opportunity [5][68]. - Options: None [5][68]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Supply - **Russia**: In 2025, supply was affected by sanctions and bombings. In 2026, if the situation eases, the total supply will increase, but the supply to Asia will be diverted [17][20]. - **Mexico**: In 2025, high - sulfur supply was affected by the unstable operation of Olmeca refinery and the new coking unit of Tula refinery. In 2026, high - sulfur exports are expected to fall below 500,000 tons per month [26][28]. - **Middle East**: In 2025, supply was affected by sanctions and power - generation demand. In the second half of the year, supply returned to normal [30]. 3.2.2. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Demand - **Ship fuel**: The demand was stable, supported by the growth of the number of ships equipped with desulfurization towers. In 2026, if shipping resumes, the total ship - fuel demand may decrease, but the high - sulfur consumption structure may remain stable [33][36]. - **Feedstock in China**: In 2025, it was affected by policies and sanctions. In 2026, it is expected to remain at around 1 million tons per month [40][41]. - **Power generation**: In 2025, the demand in Egypt and the Middle East increased in the first half of the year but declined later. In the long term, the demand in Saudi Arabia is expected to decline [44][47]. 3.2.3. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **South Sudan**: In 2025, exports were frequently disrupted by the civil war. In 2026, exports are expected to be stable at 3 - 4 batches per month, flowing to the Pan - Singapore region [50][52]. - **Kuwait**: In 2025, supply was affected by Al - Zour refinery's production changes and UAE's diversion. In 2026, total exports and exports to the Pan - Singapore region are expected to increase [54][55]. - **Nigeria**: In 2025, supply was affected by Dangote refinery's RFCC unit outages. In 2026, monthly exports are expected to be 20 - 30 million tons, flowing to the Pan - Singapore region [55][56].