Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Recently, the oil and fat market has been significantly influenced by trade and policy expectations. After a rapid rise, the market has shown signs of weakness and a decline. The palm oil in Malaysia may experience a production cut and inventory reduction in January, but the inventory may remain at a relatively high level. The inventory situation in Malaysia and Indonesia is different, and the combined inventory of the two countries is not abundant. The positive outlook for U.S. biodiesel is expected to benefit the consumption demand for U.S. soybean oil, which has potential positive effects on soybean oil. However, soybean oil lacks a prominent core contradiction. The market rumor that China will increase its purchase commitment of U.S. soybeans to 20 million tons this season, along with a new round of reserve auctions possibly taking place after the holiday, may shift the supply pressure of soybean oil, restricting its upward space. Canadian rapeseed is expected to re - enter the domestic market, and there have been many purchases of Canadian rapeseed recently, which is negative for the far - month rapeseed oil basis. In the short term, rapeseed oil maintains a small - scale inventory reduction rhythm, which provides some support for the rapeseed oil price. When the oil and fat market continues to correct, rapeseed oil will also follow, but the downward space is expected to be limited. Currently, the domestic rapeseed oil is still affected by policy factors [4][27]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Week - to - Week Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations 1. Recent Core Events and Market Review - Three major forecasting institutions predict that the production of Malaysian palm oil in January will decrease by 12 - 14% month - on - month to about 1.6 million tons, exports will improve to 1.42 million tons, and inventory may be reduced to about 2.9 million tons. The U.S. Treasury Department issued the proposed rules for the 45Z tax credit this week. The new rules set the raw materials for biofuel production in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, and cancel the indirect land - use change penalty. There is a rumor that China will increase its purchase commitment of U.S. soybeans to 20 million tons this season after a phone call between Chinese and U.S. leaders on Wednesday [4]. 2. International Market - **Malaysia**: Three major forecasting institutions predict that the production of Malaysian palm oil in January will decrease by 12 - 14% to about 1.6 million tons. UOB expects the production decline in January to be 13 - 17%, and MPOA expects a 14% decline. Exports have improved to 1.42 million tons, and inventory may be reduced to about 2.9 million tons, which is still at a high level in the same period of history. Attention should be paid to the MPOB report next week. - **Indonesia**: Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil in February at $918.47 per ton, slightly higher than $915.64 per ton in January. The export tax remains the same as in January at $74 per ton. Currently, the CPO reference price in Indonesia has dropped from over $900 to around $890, but it is still at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the room for further increase is expected to be limited. - **Weather**: According to the rainfall forecast map, rainfall will significantly increase in the southern part of the Malay Peninsula and the Sabah and Sarawak regions in the next week. The rainfall in Indonesia is generally normal. The situation of excessive rainfall in the southern part of the Malay Peninsula and East Malaysia will ease in the next two weeks [7]. - **India**: The market expects that India's palm oil imports in January will surge by 51% to 766,000 tons, the highest level in four months. At the same time, soybean oil imports will be significantly reduced by 45% to 280,000 tons, the lowest level since June 2024, and sunflower oil imports may decline by 23% to 269,000 tons. Due to the decline in soybean oil and sunflower oil imports, the total edible oil imports in India in January decreased by 3.5% month - on - month to 1.32 million tons. Recently, the international price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has been rising, and the palm oil origin quotes are frequent, with an overall stable - to - decreasing trend. The cost - performance of palm oil is relatively good, and there are rumors that India has made near - month palm oil purchases this week [13]. 3. Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: As of January 30, 2026 (Week 5), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 701,400 tons, a decrease of 40,900 tons or 5.51% from the previous week. The palm oil inventory is at a neutral level in the same period of history. The origin quotes are stable - to - decreasing, and the import profit on the futures market is inverted by about 170. There are rumors of near - month and far - month purchases this week. The basis is running stably with a weak trend, and downstream buyers purchase on demand. Attention should be paid to future domestic purchases and arrivals. In the short term, after a rapid rise, the palm oil futures market is facing profit - taking due to the approaching holiday and a lack of continuous positive factors, and the price has declined. Fundamentally, the high inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to result in a slow inventory reduction in the future. However, the inventory in Indonesia is low. Indonesia will increase the Levy tax in March, and the export tax may be increased by one level, which provides some cost support for palm oil. Overall, the short - term futures market will maintain a volatile operation, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [16]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of January 30, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 946,800 tons, a decrease of 9,200 tons or 0.96% from the previous week. Currently, the soybean oil inventory is continuously decreasing slightly, but it is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the basis is running stably. This week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.484 million tons, and the operating rate was 68.33%, an increase from the previous week. The U.S. Treasury Department issued the proposed rules for the 45Z tax credit this week, which will be subject to a 60 - day public comment period, and a hearing will be held on May 28. The new rules set the raw materials for biofuel production in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, and cancel the indirect land - use change penalty, which is beneficial to the demand for U.S. domestic soybean oil in biodiesel. In addition, after the rumored phone call between Chinese and U.S. leaders on Wednesday, the futures prices of U.S. soybeans and U.S. soybean oil fluctuated and rose. Overall, soybean oil is still supported by the positive outlook of U.S. biodiesel policy, and the domestic soybean oil inventory is continuously decreasing slightly. However, the overall inventory is not in short supply, and there is limited room for the futures price to rise or fall [21]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of January 30, 2026, the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills in coastal areas was 58,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week. As of January 30, 2026, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 242,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week, at a relatively neutral level in the same period of history, but the inventory is continuously decreasing marginally. This week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major oil mills in coastal areas was 10,000 tons, and the operating rate was 2.67%, an increase from the previous week. The FOB price of European rapeseed oil is stable at around $1,030, and the import profit of European rapeseed oil is inverted and has expanded to around - 1,300. There are rumors of domestic rapeseed oil purchases this week. In addition, there are rumors in the market this week that the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed may be implemented, and domestic enterprises can import Canadian rapeseed. There have been many purchases of Canadian rapeseed in the country this week, which has caused the rapeseed oil price to decline. However, in the short term, the supply of available rapeseed oil in the domestic market is tight, which supports the near - month basis. Overall, there have been many purchases of Canadian rapeseed recently, and there may be some supply pressure in the far - month. However, in the short term, rapeseed oil maintains a small - scale inventory reduction rhythm, and the tight supply of actual available inventory supports the near - month basis. The previous high import cost also provides some support for the rapeseed oil price. Currently, the domestic rapeseed oil is still affected by policy factors, and attention should be paid to changes in rapeseed import policies [24]. 4. Strategy Recommendations - **Unilateral Strategy**: In the short term, the overall oil and fat market may continue to maintain a wide - range volatile operation, and there is no trending market for the time being. It is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Conduct reverse arbitrage on P59 and y59 at high prices. - **Options Strategy**: Wait and see [29]. II. Week - to - Week Data Tracking - **Malaysia**: Monthly production, export, and inventory data of Malaysian crude palm oil are provided [32]. - **Indonesia**: Monthly production, export, and inventory data of Indonesian palm oil are provided [36]. - **International Soybean Oil Market**: Data on NOPA's U.S. soybean crushing volume, U.S. soybean oil monthly inventory, Brazil's soybean monthly crushing volume, Brazil's soybean oil monthly inventory, Argentina's soybean monthly crushing volume, and Argentina's soybean oil inventory are provided [42]. - **India's Oil and Fat Supply and Demand**: Data on India's edible oil monthly consumption, import, port inventory, as well as monthly imports of palm oil, sunflower oil, and soybean oil are provided [48][50][53]. - **Domestic Market**: Data on domestic rapeseed oil import profit, 24 - degree palm oil import profit, soybean weekly crushing volume, soybean oil weekly consumption, soybean oil weekly trading volume, palm oil monthly import volume, palm oil monthly sales volume, palm oil weekly trading volume, domestic rapeseed weekly crushing volume, domestic rapeseed oil import volume, domestic rapeseed oil monthly consumption, domestic oil and fat spot basis, and domestic oil and fat commercial inventory are provided [59][62][63][65][67][73][75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the international crude oil market showed high volatility and wide - range fluctuations, mainly driven by the repeated geopolitical negotiations between the US and Iran. Combined with macro - demand concerns and supply - side signals, oil prices first fell and then rebounded, but still recorded a weekly decline, ending the previous consecutive upward trend. Geopolitics is the short - term trading focus. If the US - Iran negotiation makes substantial progress, the risk premium will quickly fade, and oil prices may further decline to the $60 - 62 range; if the situation becomes tense or the negotiation breaks down, prices may quickly rise above $68 - 70 [5]. - The trading strategies are as follows: for unilateral trading, expect wide - range fluctuations; for arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Market Performance**: The international crude oil market this week had high volatility and wide - range fluctuations, with prices first falling and then rebounding, but a weekly decline was recorded, ending the previous upward trend [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: wide - range fluctuations; Arbitrage: wait - and - see; Options: wait - and - see [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Macro - **US Labor Market**: The ADP data shows that the market expects a mild recovery in private - sector new employment, and there are continuous concerns about labor market cooling. The non - farm employment data for January is expected to add about 70,000 jobs, with the employment rate stable at around 4.4% and a moderate average hourly wage growth. This data has been postponed to next week due to the government shutdown [11]. - **US Dollar Index**: It strengthened during the week, suppressing market risk appetite and causing a sharp decline in the commodity market. It weakened on Friday, leading to a recovery in risk appetite [11]. 3.2.2 Supply - **Russian Oil Exports**: As of late January, over 140 million barrels of Russian crude oil were stranded at sea, causing payment delays and port congestion. Russian oil revenue is at a low point since the war, with a 24% year - on - year decline in 2025 and accounting for less than 23% of the budget, a 20 - year low [14]. - **Iranian Issue**: Geopolitical factors dominated the market. At the beginning of the week, the expectation of negotiation easing led to a decline in oil prices, while in the middle and late week, due to the resurgence of negotiation uncertainty and the US shooting down an Iranian drone, the geopolitical premium increased and oil prices rebounded. The possibility of a direct conflict in the short term is low, but tail risks still exist [17]. - **US Oil**: On February 6th, the number of active US oil rigs was 412, a week - on - week increase of 1. In the week of January 30th, US crude oil production decreased by 481,000 barrels per day to 13.215 million barrels per day. The EIA slightly raised the forecast for US crude oil production in 2026, expecting the annual average production to remain at around 13.6 million barrels per day, basically the same as in 2025 (with a decline of less than 1%). It is expected that production in 2027 will decline more significantly, to 13.3 million barrels per day, a decrease of about 2% (or about 340,000 barrels per day) compared to 2026 [18][20]. 3.2.3 Balance - The IEA's January balance sheet slightly increased the demand forecast for 2026 by 70,000 barrels per day, the third consecutive upward revision. Supply was revised up by 100,000 barrels per day, mainly due to slightly higher - than - expected production increases in non - OPEC+ (especially in the Americas). In an environment of both supply and demand growth, the surplus is still high, with a surplus of 4.25 million barrels per day in Q1 2026 [23]. 3.2.4 Market Conditions - **Western Market**: The Middle East market was relatively strong. The spread between the first - line and third - line of the Dubai swap strengthened, remaining above 0 during the week but still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history. The DFL weakened significantly on a week - on - week basis, remaining around $0.7 - 0.8 per barrel, and the EFS also increased slightly [24][26]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Crude Oil Price and Monthly Spread**: Data on the first - line prices and monthly spreads of Brent, WTI, and Dubai are presented [30]. - **Crude Oil Spot - Europe & West Africa**: Data on DFL, CFD 1W - 1M, and various oil - type discounts are provided [33]. - **Crude Oil Spot - Middle East & Mediterranean**: Data on CPC, Azeri, Urals, Oman discounts, and EFS first - line are presented [37]. - **Crude Oil Spot - North America**: Data on Brent - WTI, Cushing - Midland, LLS - Mars spreads are provided [41]. - **US EIA Weekly Data**: Data on US crude oil production, feed - in volume, export volume, import volume, refinery operating rate, gasoline production, distillate production, jet fuel production, commercial inventory, Cushing inventory, and strategic inventory are presented [44][47][50]. - **Inventory - Crude Oil Floating Storage & Waterborne**: Data on global, Asian, European, and Middle Eastern crude oil floating storage, as well as global waterborne and in - transit crude oil are provided [54]. - **Inventory - European Refined Oil**: Data on ARA fuel oil, diesel, gasoline, naphtha, and jet fuel inventories are presented [57]. - **Inventory - Singapore & Middle East Refined Oil**: Data on Singapore's heavy, medium, and light inventories, as well as Fujeirah's heavy, medium, and light inventories are provided [60]. - **Cracking and Profit - Northwest Europe**: Data on NEW - Brent - Topping, NEW - Brent - HSK, NEW - Brent - HCU, and NEW - Brent - FCC cracking spreads are provided [66]. - **Cracking and Profit - Asia - Pacific**: Data on APAC - Dubai - FCC, APAC - Dubai - HCU, APAC - Dubai - HSK, and APAC - Dubai - Topping cracking spreads are provided [71]. - **Cracking and Profit - North America**: Data on US - WTI - FCC, US - WTI - Coking, US - WTI - HSK, and US - WTI - Topping cracking spreads are provided [76]. - **Oil Price vs. Position**: Data on the relationship between Brent and WTI prices and their management fund net positions are presented [79][82].

Report Title - LPG Liquefied Gas Weekly Report: Focus on US-Iran Negotiations [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, LPG has been oscillating within a range after a previous decline. Overseas, Middle Eastern supplies remain tight with rising Saudi CP prices in March and uncertain Iranian situation, keeping prices high. In Europe and America, cold snaps led to continuous inventory reduction of propane in the US, driving prices up with natural gas, but supply is sufficient. Domestically, although the arrival volume is low, refinery off - gas has increased. In terms of demand, combustion demand is still in the peak season, but chemical demand is weak, with low PDH operating rates due to high import prices and poor profits. Looking ahead, refinery off - gas may decline slightly, and there is no sign of further weakening in PDH operations. The impact of the Iranian negotiations should be continuously monitored [4]. - Unilateral trading strategy: wide - range oscillation; Arbitrage strategy: wait - and - see; Option strategy: wait - and - see [5] Summary of Each Chapter Chapter One: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - Overseas market: Tight Middle Eastern supply, rising Saudi CP prices in March, and uncertain Iranian situation keep Middle Eastern prices high. In Europe and America, cold snaps in the US led to propane inventory reduction, driving prices up with natural gas, but supply is sufficient. - Domestic market: Supply side shows low arrival volume but increased refinery off - gas. Demand side has strong combustion demand but weak chemical demand, with low PDH operating rates due to high import prices and poor profits. Future refinery off - gas may decline slightly, and PDH operations may not weaken further [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: wide - range oscillation; Arbitrage: wait - and - see; Option: wait - and - see [5] Chapter Two: Core Logic Analysis Crude Oil - The international crude oil market is highly volatile and widely oscillating, mainly driven by the repeated US - Iran geopolitical negotiations, along with macro - demand concerns and supply - side signals. Oil prices first fell and then rebounded, but still ended the week lower, breaking the previous upward trend. Geopolitical factors led to a roller - coaster market. At the beginning of the week, easing negotiation expectations reduced geopolitical risks and oil prices declined. In the middle and later part of the week, negotiation uncertainties and the US shooting down an Iranian drone increased the geopolitical premium and oil prices rebounded. In terms of supply and demand, OPEC + confirmed no change in the March production policy, Saudi Arabia lowered its official selling price to Asia, the impact of extreme cold in the US is fading, and the US oil inventory change is limited with an emerging supply - surplus pattern [10]. Supply - The capacity utilization rate of domestic major refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 81.81%, up 1.79% week - on - week and 2.87% year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of independent refineries is 60.00%, down 0.91 percentage points week - on - week. Due to the increased operation of major refineries and reduced self - use in some enterprises, supply has increased. Next week, refinery off - gas is expected to decrease, and domestic LPG production may decline [13]. Demand - Chemical demand is weak. The PDH operating rate is 62.66%, up 1.94% week - on - week but at a historically low level, mainly due to increased production in East China. MTBE production remained flat this week. The capacity utilization rate of alkylation oil samples is 36.30%, up 0.87% week - on - week [16]. Inventory - This week, the number of arriving ships at ports decreased slightly, but the inventory of ships arriving last week was unloaded this week, increasing the unloading volume. Due to the addition of new port sample enterprises by Longzhong, port inventory increased. LPG inventory at refineries decreased slightly. From the perspective of tertiary - station inventory, the storage rates in different regions vary, with the storage rate in North China rising from the bottom, remaining high in South China and along the Yangtze River, increasing in East China, and being neutral in other regions [20]. Chapter Three: Weekly Data Tracking Price Data - Not summarized as only data graphs are presented without specific text analysis [24] Spread Data - Not summarized as only data graphs are presented without specific text analysis [27] Disk Profit Data - Not summarized as only data graphs are presented without specific text analysis [30] Spot Profit Data - Not summarized as only data graphs are presented without specific text analysis [34] Supply Data - Data on the capacity utilization rates of major and independent refineries, LPG production, and crude oil processing volume are presented. There is also a refinery maintenance plan table showing the maintenance information of multiple domestic refineries from 2025 to 2027 [37][39] PDH Device Maintenance Data - A table shows the maintenance information of PDH devices of multiple enterprises from 2023 to 2026 [41] National Temperature Forecast - Not summarized as only the data source is provided without specific content [45] Inventory Data - Data on the storage rates of tertiary stations, port inventory, and port storage ratios of LPG are presented [48]

目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 2 第二部分 周度数据追踪 5 GALAXY FUTURES 1 股指期货周报：市场降温 股指震荡 研究员：孙锋 期货从业证号：F0211891 投资咨询证号：Z0000567 周末要闻 GALAXY FUTURES 2 国务院总理李强2月6日主持召开国务院第十次全体会议，讨论拟提请十四届全国人大四次会议审议的政府工作报 告稿和"十五五"规划纲要草案稿。李强指出，深入谋划实施一批重大举措、重大项目，特别是要在发展新质生产 力、做强国内大循环、促进居民增收等方面取得更大突破。 央行等八部门联合发布《关于进一步防范和处置虚拟货币等相关风险的通知》。《通知》重申境内对虚拟货币坚持 禁止性政策，明确虚拟货币不具有法定货币地位，相关业务活动属于非法金融活动。同时，重申境内对于虚拟货币 "挖矿"的禁止性政策等。《通知》还强调，未经相关部门依法依规同意，境内主体及其控制的境外主体不得在境 外发行虚拟货币。 特斯拉副总裁陶琳昨日表示，针对中国辅助驾驶和AI应用场景，特斯拉在中国已自主投入并使用了一家AI训练中心， 从而进行特斯拉AI在中国的本地训练能力部署。 英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋 ...

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Short - term High - level Consolidation, Prudent Operation Before the Festival [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term bullish sentiment has weakened, and the market is volatile due to capital and sentiment. However, the main bullish logic remains unchanged, and the long - term upward trend continues. Near the Spring Festival, it is recommended to control positions and operate prudently [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Macro - aspect**: Trump's nomination of Warsh as the Fed Chairman led the market to pre - trade Warsh's hawkish policies. The sell - off in US software stocks spread to the entire technology sector, and multiple factors intensified the decline in precious metals and non - ferrous metals [6] - **Copper Ore**: Trump plans to invest $12 billion in key mineral reserves. China aims to improve the copper resource reserve system. The strike at Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile ended, and normal production is expected to resume [6] - **Scrap Copper**: Domestic policies related to recycled copper have tightened, and some supply enterprises will be on holiday during the Spring Festival, so the supply of scrap - produced blister copper and anode plates is expected to decline [6] - **Refined Copper**: In January, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, with a slight increase. SMM expects a decline in February. As of February 5, domestic mainstream copper inventories increased, while bonded - area inventories decreased. LME inventories are expected to continue to accumulate [6] - **Consumption**: After the copper price correction, downstream procurement enthusiasm increased, but it is expected to weaken next week as the Spring Festival approaches [6] - **Spread and Ratio**: LME inventories are continuously accumulating, the domestic import window is periodically opened, and the spread and premium are expected to remain in a discount state [6] 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Price Trends - The report shows the price trends of Shanghai Copper Main Contract and LME 3 - Month Copper, and lists important events affecting copper prices such as processing fee drops, trade investigations, and production plan adjustments from 2025 - 2026 [8][9] 3.3 Copper Fundamental Analysis and Weekly Data Tracking - **Copper Concentrate Market**: On February 6, the SMM imported copper concentrate index decreased. In 2025, China's copper concentrate imports increased. The production of major copper - producing countries such as Peru and Chile showed different trends [19][25][28] - **Scrap Copper Market**: As of this Friday, the refined - scrap spread is 3,127 yuan/ton. The operating rate of recycled copper rods increased slightly. In 2025, the supply of domestic scrap copper increased, and the import of scrap copper also showed an upward trend [34][39] - **Blister Copper Market**: In October 2025, blister copper production increased year - on - year. The import of anode copper decreased in 2025. The average processing fee for southern blister copper increased this week [41][44] - **Domestic Copper Supply**: In January, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased slightly. SMM expects a decline in February. In 2025, the import of refined copper decreased, and the export increased [46][49] - **Copper Products Operating Rate**: The overall copper products operating rate showed a mixed trend. Some industries' operating rates increased due to pre - holiday stocking and price corrections, while others are expected to decline in February [51][60][66] - **Downstream Consumption**: - **Air - conditioning Consumption**: In December 2025, China's household air - conditioning market did not meet expectations. The production and sales of air - conditioners decreased year - on - year. The production schedule for 2026 shows different trends in domestic and export sales [71] - **Automobile Consumption**: In 2025, the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles increased. It is predicted that the total automobile sales in 2026 will increase slightly, and new - energy vehicle sales are expected to grow by 15.2% [75] - **Grid Investment**: In 2025, China's grid investment increased year - on - year, while the power source project investment decreased. The State Grid's fixed - asset investment during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan [78] - **Real Estate Market**: In 2025, the national commercial housing sales area and housing completion area decreased year - on - year [83] - **Overseas Data**: The report shows the data of US new housing sales, new private residential starts, automobile sales, and European passenger car registrations [86] - **Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: In 2025, China's new photovoltaic and wind power installations increased year - on - year. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts different growth trends for future photovoltaic installations [89] - **Global New - energy Vehicle Sales**: In 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased. In December, global new - energy vehicle sales increased year - on - year, while US new - energy vehicle sales decreased slightly [91][95] 3.4 Industry News and Macroeconomic Data - Trump nominated Warsh as the Fed Chairman, and the US Senate passed a $1.2 trillion government spending bill. Southern Copper Corp. expects a decline in copper production in the next two years. The US ISM manufacturing PMI index rose significantly in January, and there are also other important industry and macro news [96]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro level: Pre - holiday capital left the market to avoid risks during the long holiday. The decline of precious metals cooled the sentiment in the non - ferrous sector, and capital left the market to release high - level risks. Non - ferrous metals generally fell, with a slight stabilization on Friday [5]. - Industry level: Lithium prices dropped for several consecutive days, and downstream price - setting was active. Currently, inventory has been stocked up to the end of the month, and further procurement depends on the production schedule in March. Due to the Spring Festival in February, imports were low, and smelters carried out maintenance, resulting in limited supply increase. The whole month is expected to see inventory reduction. In March, after resuming production, the production schedule will exceed 105,000 tons, and the lithium salt exports from Chile in January increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, corresponding to a record - high import volume in China in March. It is expected that there will be inventory accumulation in the peak season in March. Attention should be paid to the downstream inventory replenishment in March [5]. - Futures level: Before the holiday, the main capital left the market, and the overall atmosphere in the non - ferrous sector was weak. The volatility of lithium carbonate remained at a high level, with large ups and downs. The positions and volatility need to further decline to return to a normal market. Prudent operation is recommended [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Demand Analysis 3.1.1 New Energy Vehicles - Domestic market: In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 16.626 million and 16.49 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 29% and 28.2%, and a penetration rate of 47.9%, 7 percentage points higher than the previous year. It is expected that the sales volume in 2026 will be 19 million, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In January 2026, affected by the expiration of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy at the end of 2025, there was an overdraft effect, but the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers still achieved positive growth, which was also due to the late Spring Festival and export [11]. - Global market: In 2025, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles from January to December increased by 19% year - on - year to 20.542 million. The sales volume in Europe increased by 31% year - on - year to 3.887 million, while that in the United States decreased by 3% year - on - year to 1.495 million. The United States cancelled the IRA new energy vehicle subsidy on October 1, resulting in a small peak in sales in advance. Most European countries still have subsidies for new energy vehicles and carbon emission requirements, which stimulated sales growth this year. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to December 2025 were 2.583 million, a year - on - year increase of 103% [16]. 3.1.2 Energy Storage Market - In December 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice to optimize the power medium - and long - term price formation mechanism. SMM statistics show that the cumulative production of energy storage cells in China in 2025 was 529.4 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 54%. The inventory of energy storage cells was at a three - year low, and the delivery cycle was extended. The production schedule of energy storage cells in January increased by 1% month - on - month, and decreased by 8.8% in February [21]. 3.1.3 Production Schedule - SMM's January production: For batteries, the month - on - month decrease was 6.2%, with a 5.5% decrease in ternary batteries and a 5.6% decrease in lithium iron phosphate batteries. For cells, the month - on - month decrease in power cells was 5.2%, and the month - on - month increase in energy storage cells was 0.8%. For cathodes, the month - on - month decrease in ternary cathode materials was 0.9%, and the month - on - month decrease in lithium iron phosphate was 1.8%. The month - on - month decrease in electrolyte was 6.4%. - SMM's February - March production schedule: For batteries, the month - on - month decrease in February was 11%, and the month - on - month increase in March was 23%. For cathodes, the month - on - month decrease in ternary cathode materials in February was 15%, and the month - on - month increase in March was 21%. The month - on - month decrease in lithium iron phosphate in February was 11%, and the month - on - month increase in March was 15%. The month - on - month decrease in electrolyte in February was 10%, and the month - on - month increase in March was 22% [26]. 3.2 Supply Analysis 3.2.1 Lithium Carbonate Production Schedule - In January, due to the maintenance of some smelters, the production schedule decreased by 1.2% month - on - month. In February, more maintenance is expected, and the production schedule range given by multiple consulting agencies is 82,000 - 89,000 tons. In March, it is generally expected to increase to over 105,000 tons. SMM statistics show that the domestic lithium carbonate production from January to December was 970,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 44% [31]. 3.2.2 Domestic Lithium Carbonate Production by Raw Material - The production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials shows different trends. For example, there was a reduction in production in Jiangxi, an increase in production by contract manufacturers, and the suspension of production by Zangge [33]. 3.2.3 Supply in January - In January 2026, the total export of lithium carbonate from Chile was 22,893 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59%. The export to China was 16,950 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44%. The total export of lithium sulfate from Chile to China in January 2026 was 27,834 tons, a month - on - month increase of 475.32% and a year - on - year increase of 1222.91% [42]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory 3.3.1 Supply - Demand Balance Estimation No specific quantitative analysis of supply - demand balance estimation is provided in the text other than the graph. 3.3.2 Inventory Reduction in the Off - season This week, SMM statistics show that the social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2019 tons, while the smelter production reduction was only 850 tons, indicating strong demand [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pre - holiday cooling does not change the upward trend of the bottom. Pre - holiday, the precious metal decline led to a cooling of sentiment in the non - ferrous sector, and funds left the market to avoid high - level risks. Although the non - ferrous metals generally declined, there were signs of stabilization on Friday. In the nickel market, there are supply uncertainties in the far - month, and the financial attribute of the non - ferrous sector has increased. For trading, it is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday, and consider light - position long positions after the price stabilizes [6]. - The cost support of nickel ore for subsequent links is emerging, especially for the NPI price. The cost of stainless steel remains firm, but the immediate cost - profit of steel mills is shrinking. After the holiday, if the nickel price stabilizes and inventory reduction is normal, there is still value in going long at a low price [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory 3.1.1 Nickel - Global Nickel Inventory at a High Level - Global visible nickel inventory reached 360,000 tons, an increase of 2,080 tons this week. Among them, domestic social inventory increased by 2,582 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 1,002 tons. Jinchuan nickel was in short supply, and the premium reached 9,500 yuan/ton [15]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - Social Inventory Slowly Accumulating Before the Festival - Before the festival, the social inventory of stainless steel was slowly accumulating. The inventory of stainless steel plants and the overall inventory - to - sales ratio of the 300 - series need attention. The spot premium and price spread of stainless steel also showed certain trends [16][17]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Pure Nickel - **Supply**: In January, refined nickel production reached 37,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26%. In 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 59,000 tons, compared with a net export of 23,600 tons in the same period last year. The supply of domestic refined nickel in 2025 was 450,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45% [24]. - **Demand**: In pure nickel consumption, the consumption of electroplating and alloys decreased by 2 - 3% year - on - year. In January, the PMI of the nickel downstream industry stood above the 50 boom - bust line due to the recovery of stainless steel, but the consumption of pure nickel in electroplating, alloys and other fields was in the off - season and decreased month - on - month [28]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel Raw Materials - **Indonesian Nickel Ore Quota**: The Indonesian nickel ore quota is tentatively set at 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons. In January 2026, Indonesia's import of Philippine nickel ore decreased by about 380,000 tons month - on - month, a month - on - month decrease of about 63%, and increased by about 110,000 tons year - on - year, a year - on - year increase of about 94.77%. In February 2026, the first - round benchmark price of Indonesian domestic - trade nickel ore increased month - on - month [30]. - **NPI**: NPI showed a recovery trend. The production of NPI in China and Indonesia and the import volume of nickel iron in China also had corresponding changes. The profit margins of NPI in different regions also showed different trends [31][32]. - **Chromium - based Products**: The price of chromium - based products turned upward. Zimbabwe imposed a 10% tax on the export of chromium - based products starting from January 1, 2026, which led to a continuous rebound in the price of chromium ore. The long - term contract purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in January 2026 decreased month - on - month [43]. - **Cold - rolled Hedging Profit on the Futures Market**: On February 6, the prices of various stainless - steel raw materials showed certain changes, and the futures market offered cold - rolled hedging profit [47]. 3.2.3 Stainless Steel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: It is estimated that the production of stainless - steel crude steel in China and India in 2025 was 45.06 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4%. In February, due to the Spring Festival maintenance, the production schedule decreased significantly. In 2025, China's total stainless - steel imports were 1.519 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21%, and the total exports were 5.031 million tons, the same as the previous year. The net export volume was 3.512 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% [54]. - **Demand**: Shipbuilding was still in the boom cycle, providing support for stainless - steel demand, while the growth rate of other terminal fields was not optimistic, especially the real - estate transaction volume decreased significantly year - on - year [56]. 3.2.4 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Market**: In 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles in China were 16.626 million and 16.49 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 29% and 28.2% respectively, with a penetration rate of 47.9%, 7% higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the sales volume of new - energy vehicles in 2026 will be 19 million, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In January 2026, the new - energy vehicle market was in the recovery period after the expiration of the purchase - tax exemption policy, but the sales volume still achieved positive growth [60]. - **Global Market**: In 2025, the global new - energy vehicle sales increased by 19% year - on - year to 20.542 million. European new - energy vehicle sales increased by 31% year - on - year to 3.887 million, while US new - energy vehicle sales decreased by 3% year - on - year to 1.495 million. China's new - energy vehicle exports in 2025 were 2.583 million, a year - on - year increase of 103% [65]. 3.2.5 Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - **Production**: In 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel production decreased by 4.3% year - on - year to 354,000 nickel tons, the ternary precursor production increased by 6% year - on - year to 903,000 tons, and the ternary cathode material production increased by 19% year - on - year to 686,000 tons. In January, the demand for sulfuric acid nickel slowed down month - on - month but increased significantly year - on - year, and the price followed the upward trend of refined nickel [67]. - **Raw Materials**: In 2025, the production of Indonesian MHP increased by 41% year - on - year to 444,000 tons, and the production of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 18% year - on - year to 224,000 tons. The increase in sulfur price led to an increase in the cost of MHP, and the price remained firm. The good demand for sulfuric acid nickel boosted the price of intermediate products and stimulated the recovery of production [73]. 3.2.6 Pure Nickel Supply - Demand Balance - In February, the surplus of pure nickel expanded as production recovered [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the polysilicon market, Tongwei Co., Ltd. has fully shut down its polysilicon production capacity, and GCL Technology has cut production, leading to a reduction in February's polysilicon output to around 80,000 tons. The boost from export rush to downstream operating rates fell short of expectations, but at the current silicon wafer operating rate, a monthly output of around 46GW can theoretically lead to polysilicon inventory reduction. From late December to January, there were basically no bulk transactions in the polysilicon spot market, and manufacturers' inventories have significantly accumulated to 340,000 tons. Anti - involution policies are expected to continue, with a greater emphasis on market - oriented principles in the future. Currently, the polysilicon spot market is under great pressure, and if some manufacturers significantly cut prices, the spot price may drop to near the cost line of each company. It is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival and pay attention to the spot price after the festival [4]. - In the industrial silicon market, this week, the weekly output of DMC decreased by 1.90% to 41,300 tons, the weekly output of polysilicon decreased by 0.05% to 19,200 tons, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 57.9%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 1 percentage point to 58.3%. The weekly output of industrial silicon decreased by 14.05% to 63,200 tons, and the total number of open furnaces decreased by 34 to 184. The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.8 tons to 562,000 tons, the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan decreased by 0.3 tons to 208,700 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory increased by 0.02 tons to 238,400 tons. Due to major manufacturers' planned production cuts and the increased production - cut expectations of silicone enterprises after a meeting last week, combined with a bearish commodity market atmosphere, the industrial silicon futures prices dropped significantly. Currently, the basis is at a relatively high level, and manufacturers are not willing to cut prices. The futures price is undervalued, but considering the approaching Spring Festival, it is possible for the futures price to further decline and then undergo re - valuation. It is recommended to reduce long positions and wait for the market to stabilize [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - **Supply and Demand**: Tongwei's full - scale shutdown and GCL's production cut led to a reduction in February's output to around 80,000 tons. There was basically no bulk trading in the spot market from late December to January, and inventories reached 340,000 tons. At the current silicon wafer operating rate, a monthly output of 46GW can lead to theoretical inventory reduction [4]. - **Market Policy**: Anti - involution policies will continue, with more emphasis on market - oriented principles in the future. Measures such as state reserves and selling at no less than cost may continue, while manufacturers' joint price - holding actions have been cancelled [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival. After the festival, if the spot price drops to near the previous low, consider lightly increasing long positions or buying call options. The bottom of the spot price can be referred to the range of (45,000, 46,000) [4][5]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the output of downstream products decreased, and the output and the number of open furnaces of industrial silicon also decreased. The social inventory increased, the inventory of sample enterprises decreased slightly, and the downstream raw material inventory increased slightly [6][15][19][25]. - **Trading Logic**: Due to production cuts and a bearish market atmosphere, the futures price dropped significantly. The basis is high, and manufacturers are reluctant to cut prices. The futures price is undervalued, but there is a possibility of further decline and re - valuation before the Spring Festival [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Reduce long positions and wait for the market to stabilize. The operating range of the futures price can be referred to (8,200, 9,100) [6][7]. Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Market Performance**: This week, industrial silicon futures prices broke through support levels and declined, while spot prices remained stable. The basis strengthened [12]. - **Downstream Demand**: The weekly output of DMC decreased by 1.90%, the weekly output of polysilicon decreased by 0.05%, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy decreased by 0.9 percentage points, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 1 percentage point [15]. - **Industrial Silicon Production**: The weekly output decreased by 14.05% to 63,200 tons, and the total number of open furnaces decreased by 34 to 184. Major manufacturers cut production as planned, and the operating rates of other manufacturers remained stable for the time being [19]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased by 0.8 tons to 562,000 tons, the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan decreased by 0.3 tons to 208,700 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory increased by 0.02 tons to 238,400 tons [25]. - **Product Prices**: This week, industrial silicon spot prices remained stable, as did DMC and terminal product prices [30][35]. - **Intermediate and Downstream Industry Data**: The operating rate of silicone intermediates decreased slightly, the price of aluminum alloy increased, and the operating rate increased slightly. The price of industrial silicon raw materials remained stable [41][45][48]. Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Price Trends**: This week, the prices of silicon wafers and distributed components decreased, while the prices of batteries, polysilicon, and centralized components increased [52]. - **Component Data**: Due to the previous sharp increase in silver prices, the cost of photovoltaic components increased significantly, and the economic viability of export rush was hindered. Although the silver price has recently declined, the component production schedule is still at a low level due to the short export - rush window period around the Spring Festival. It is expected that the photovoltaic component production schedule in February will be 30GW. The European photovoltaic component inventory is 34.2GW, and the domestic manufacturers' component inventory is 26.1GW, both at a relatively low - to - neutral level [61]. - **Battery Data**: The export tax refund for photovoltaic batteries will be reduced and cancelled in 2027. The incremental demand for battery export rush may be less than that of components. It is expected that the photovoltaic battery production schedule in February will be adjusted down to around 35GW [62]. - **Silicon Wafer Data**: The silicon wafer inventory has increased to 28.32GW. The export tax refund for silicon wafers will be cancelled simultaneously with that of components, and there is still demand for silicon wafer export rush. The silicon wafer production schedule in February will remain flat at 46GW compared to the previous month [68]. - **Polysilicon Data**: This week, the polysilicon output decreased slightly, and the factory inventory increased to 340,000 tons. GCL Technology reduced its operating rate, and Tongwei Co., Ltd. shut down all production. The polysilicon operating rate in February will not change much compared to January, and the output may be reduced to around 80,000 tons due to Tongwei's shutdown and the number of days in the month [73].

电解铝 ：资金持续离场 节前震荡为主 研究员：陈婧 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 铝策略展望 ◼ 衍生品：暂时观望。 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 宏观：上周五贵金属市场的大幅回落在本周初得以延续，随后转为震荡格局，这其中有特朗普任命新任美联储主席为凯文沃什以及地缘冲 突有所缓和带来的预期转变，也有AI相关股票财报不及预期拖累美股回落带动的股期共振影响，而价格下跌的加速更多是前期快速上涨中 积累的风险得到释放的结果。此外，对人工智能支出和科技股估值的担忧引发的全球抛售潮在本周进一步加深，科技股从美国市场蔓延至 亚洲市场持续下挫，美元反弹。 ◼ 产业供应：近期无预期外变化。国内辽宁某30万吨闲置产能预计在3-5月开始复产，印尼某去年四季度新投的电解铝项目二期投产进度在 今年预计相对缓慢，印尼其余项目及安哥拉项目投产进度基本如期。国内华北某新投项目虽然通电但 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, iron ore prices continued to decline from their highs, and as short - term market sentiment and capital disturbances came to an end, prices gradually returned to the fundamental logic. The supply side continued to contribute significant increments, the supply remained loose, and port inventories of imported iron ore continued to increase rapidly. The domestic terminal steel demand was unlikely to improve significantly. After the Spring Festival, the market trading logic would focus on the recovery of terminal steel demand in the first half of the year, which might fall short of expectations. The weakening of the domestic iron ore fundamentals was expected to continue, and the high valuation of iron ore was unlikely to be sustained. Overall, the current market was mainly dominated by macro and capital factors. This week, the macro sentiment cooled, the iron ore price valuation was moderately high, and the iron ore price was expected to be weak [4]. - The trading strategy suggested a weak - running trend for single - side trading and a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options trading [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - The iron ore price was expected to run weakly. The single - side trading was expected to be weak, while arbitrage and options trading should adopt a wait - and - see approach [4]. Iron Core Logic Analysis - **Global Iron Ore Shipment**: Since 2026, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments has been 30.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% or 15 million tons. Among them, Australia's weekly shipments were 17.82 million tons, a 7.4% or 6.1 million - ton increase year - on - year, and Brazil's were 6.5 million tons, a 5.5% or 1.7 million - ton increase. The shipments of major overseas mines remained at a high level year - on - year. In 2025, 1.26 billion tons of iron ore were imported, a year - on - year increase of 24 million tons. Since the third quarter of last year, the year - on - year increase in domestic imported iron ore has continued to grow [7]. - **Non - mainstream Iron Ore Shipment**: Since 2026, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore shipments has been 6.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29% or 7.3 million tons. The Simandou mining area is expected to contribute most of the increment in 2026, about 20 million tons for the whole year. It is expected to be in the production ramping - up stage in 2026 and enter the fast - lane of production release in 2027 [9]. - **Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory**: This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased significantly, resulting in a 4 - million - ton increase in the total domestic imported iron ore inventory compared with the previous week. The current port inventory of imported iron ore is at the highest level in the past six years, and the domestic iron ore supply - demand pattern remains loose. Since January, the port inventory of imported iron ore has continued to increase significantly, with an inventory accumulation of about 15 million tons [11]. - **Domestic Terminal Steel Demand**: In December 2025, the year - on - year decline in real - estate new construction was 19%, and the sales area decreased by 17% year - on - year. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment decreased by 11% year - on - year. The real - estate market improved marginally but remained at the bottom, while the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment declined significantly. In the first half of 2026, the demand might fall short of expectations. Since the second half of 2025, domestic steel demand has been declining, and it is expected to continue to decline in the first half of 2026 on the high - base background of the first half of 2025. Overseas, in 2025, the consumption of iron ore decreased by 1% or 9 million tons year - on - year, but the consumption of iron elements increased by 3.5% or 37 million tons year - on - year. From the second quarter to the end of the year, overseas iron - element consumption was at a high level and continued to contribute increments. India's crude - steel output increased by 10% or 15.5 million tons year - on - year in 2025, and its demand remained at a relatively high level [13]. Iron Ore Fundamental Data Tracking - **Imported Iron Ore Port Price**: The report provides data on the Platts iron ore price index, the prices of PB powder and Carajás fines at Qingdao Port, and the spread between high, medium, and low - grade powder and the cash profit of steel mills [19]. - **Imported Iron Ore Port Profit**: It presents the import profits of PB powder, Carajás fines, Super Special powder, Jinbuba, PB lump, and FMG [21]. - **Profit of Mainstream Steel Mills in East China**: It includes the cash profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in East China, the iron - making cost (excluding tax), the cash cost of hot - rolled coils, the cost of billets (excluding tax), and the cash cost of rebar [23]. - **Domestic - Overseas US Dollar Spread**: It shows the spreads between SGX and DCE contracts (converted to PB pricing), and the premium rate of Singapore iron ore to domestic iron ore [25]. - **Iron Ore Main Contract Basis and Inter - period Spread**: It provides data on the basis between the optimal delivery product and different contracts, and inter - period spreads such as 9/1, 1/5, and 5/9 spreads [27]. - **Global Four Major Mines' Shipments**: It shows the global shipment volumes of Rio Tinto, Vale, BHP, FMG, and CSN iron ore, as well as the arrival volume at 45 ports [29]. - **Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory**: It includes the inventory of powder, lump, pellet, non - trade, iron concentrate, and non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore at ports [31].