1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market on Thursday showed a widespread decline. The A - share market was affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and corporate earnings reports, and it may continue to explore the bottom on Friday. The bond market continued to repair, with the long - end performing stronger. In the agricultural product market, different varieties had different trends, with some showing potential for a rebound and some in a state of shock. The black metal market was affected by factors such as raw material prices and policies, and steel prices were weakly volatile. The non - ferrous metal market was generally driven by the weakening of the US dollar, with some metals rising. The energy and chemical market was under pressure from supply and demand, and most varieties showed a weakening trend [19][22][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - On Thursday, the market fell across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index and other major indices declined, and stock index futures also followed the decline of the spot market. The Fed's interest rate cut and corporate earnings reports affected market sentiment. On Friday, the A - share market may explore the bottom due to inertia, and it is recommended to wait for the market to oversell and then go long on the dips. Consider IM\IC futures - spot arbitrage when the discount widens, and use bullish spreads for options [19][20][21]. Treasury Bond Futures - On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central economic work conference's statements on fiscal and monetary policies weakened the probability of an unexpected fiscal policy next year and made policy rate cuts still expected. It is recommended to partially take profits on long positions in TL contracts on rallies and pay attention to potential futures - spot arbitrage opportunities in TF contracts [22][23]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - CBOT soybean index rose slightly, and the US soybean export sales data showed some changes. In the context of a potentially large harvest in South America, international soybeans have a limited upside, but the domestic soybean meal may have a phased rebound due to factors such as profit losses. It is recommended to lay out a small number of long positions, narrow the MRM spread, and sell wide - straddle options [27][28]. Sugar - International sugar prices were oscillating at a low level, and domestic sugar prices also showed a similar trend. Brazil's sugar production was approaching the end of the season, and the supply pressure was gradually easing. In China, although the new sugar season had an increasing production, the high production cost provided some support. It is recommended to build long positions on the dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell put options at low levels [31][33]. Oilseeds and Oils - The external market of oils showed different trends. Malaysian palm oil had a risk of inventory accumulation, while domestic soybean oil was gradually reducing inventory, and rapeseed oil was expected to continue to reduce inventory. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - short trading in a band - trading manner, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [35][36]. Corn/Corn Starch - The external market of corn stabilized, while the domestic northeast corn price was weak, and the port price declined. The 03 corn contract was expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to go long on the dips for the 03 contract on corrections, go long on the 05 and 07 contracts on long - term declines, conduct 3 - 7 corn reverse arbitrage, and wait and see for options [39][40]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs was generally stable, but the overall supply pressure still existed. It is recommended to mainly hold short positions, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell wide - straddle options [41][42]. Peanuts - The peanut spot price was stable, and large - scale oil mills started to purchase. The 01 peanut contract may have a downward space. It is recommended to lightly go short on the 01 peanut contract on rallies, conduct 1 - 5 peanut reverse arbitrage, and sell pk603 - C - 8200 options [44][46]. Eggs - Egg prices were mainly stable. The recent reduction in the number of culled chickens had eased the supply pressure. It is recommended to expect the near - term contracts to oscillate in a range and consider building long positions on the far - term contracts on the dips, wait and see for arbitrage and options [47][49]. Apples - The apple inventory was low, and the fundamentals were strong. It is recommended that the apple price may oscillate at a high level, conduct long 1 and short 10 arbitrage, and wait and see for options [52][53]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The external market of cotton was weak, but the domestic new cotton sales were good, and there were positive factors such as a possible reduction in the planting area in Xinjiang next year. It is recommended to go long on the dips, wait and see for arbitrage and options [56][58]. Black Metals Steel - Affected by raw materials such as coal and coke, steel prices were weakly volatile. Although the steel inventory continued to decline, the demand was affected by the season. It is recommended that the steel price will continue to be weakly volatile, short the coil - coal ratio and the coil - rebar spread on rallies, and wait and see for options [62][63]. Coking Coal and Coke - Mongolia planned to increase coal exports, and the market expected a weak trend. The coking coal price continued to decline, and the spot price was also weak. It is recommended that the double - coking futures will continue to be weakly volatile [65][66]. Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore was generally stable, and the domestic demand for steel products was weak. It is recommended to adopt a bearish view on iron ore, wait and see for arbitrage and options [72][73]. Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, the cost had some support, but the demand was under pressure. For ferromanganese, the cost was rising, but the demand was also weak. It is recommended that ferroalloys will oscillate at the bottom, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [74][75]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - Affected by the weakening of the US dollar, gold and silver prices rose. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and silver based on the 5 - day moving average, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options for silver [77][78]. Platinum and Palladium - Driven by the weakening of the US dollar and the bullish trend of precious metals, platinum and palladium showed a phased upward trend. It is recommended to go long on platinum on the dips based on the 5 - day moving average, wait and see for palladium, conduct long platinum and short palladium arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options [81][82]. Copper - The copper price reached a new high due to the weakening of the US dollar. Although the supply was tight in 2026, the downstream demand was insufficient. It is recommended that the copper price will be strongly volatile, pay attention to inter - period positive arbitrage opportunities, and wait and see for options [84][88][89]. Alumina - The alumina price was weak due to slow warehouse receipt digestion and high inventory. It is recommended that the alumina price will continue to be weak, wait and see for arbitrage and options [91][93]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Driven by macro and micro factors, the aluminum price rebounded. It is recommended that the aluminum price will be strongly driven by the macro - fundamentals, wait and see for arbitrage and options [97][98]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Affected by the market sentiment, the aluminum alloy showed a strong trend. The spot market was weak, and the demand was weakening. It is recommended that the aluminum alloy will be strong along with the sector, wait and see for arbitrage and options [98][101]. Zinc - The zinc price was strongly volatile due to the reduction of domestic social inventory. It is recommended to hold long positions and wait and see for arbitrage and options [103][104]. Lead - The lead price oscillated in a range. The domestic supply of secondary lead had a reduction expectation, but the consumption was gradually weakening. It is recommended to try short positions on rallies [107][108]. Nickel - The nickel price oscillated downward due to the oversupply situation. It is recommended that the nickel price will continue to decline, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [109][111][112]. Stainless Steel - Affected by the decline of the nickel price, the stainless steel price oscillated at a low level. It is recommended that the stainless steel price will oscillate at a low level, wait and see for arbitrage [113][114]. Industrial Silicon - Affected by the air pollution warning in Xinjiang, the industrial silicon price may be adjusted in the short term. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions, and aggressive investors can participate in short - term long positions, conduct long polysilicon and short industrial silicon arbitrage, and stop losses on selling out - of - the - money call options [115]. Polysilicon - Although the downstream demand was under pressure, the polysilicon enterprises had a strong willingness to support the price. It is recommended to buy on corrections, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy both call and put options [116][117]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price was running at a high level, but there was a pressure of inventory accumulation in the medium term. It is recommended to buy after a sufficient correction in the medium term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies [119][120]. Tin - Due to the escalation of the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the tin price rose strongly. It is recommended that the tin price will be strong in the near future, wait and see for options [120][122]. Shipping Container Shipping - The spot freight rate showed some improvements. The 02 contract had incorporated some price - increase expectations and was expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to partially take profits and partially hold long positions in the EC2602 contract and wait and see for arbitrage [125][126]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The crude oil supply - demand pressure was difficult to change, and the price oscillated weakly. It is recommended to be bearish on the short - term trend, the domestic gasoline is neutral, the diesel is weak, and the crude oil inter - month spread is weak, and wait and see for options [128][129]. Asphalt - The asphalt price was affected by the decline of crude oil prices and was expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended that the BU2602 contract will oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options for the BU2602 contract [131][132][133]. Fuel Oil - The low - sulfur fuel oil supply was frequently disturbed by device changes, and the high - sulfur fuel oil was expected to be weakly stable. It is recommended that the fuel oil price will be weakly volatile, the low - sulfur cracking is neutral, the high - sulfur cracking is weak, and wait and see for options [134][136][137]. PX & PTA - The PX supply was abundant, and the PTA had an expectation of inventory accumulation. It is recommended that the PX & PTA price will be weakly volatile, conduct PTA1 and 5 contract reverse arbitrage, and sell both options [138][139][140]. BZ & EB - The pure benzene supply was stable and the demand decreased, and the benzene - styrene basis weakened. It is recommended that the price will be weakly volatile, wait and see for arbitrage and options [141][143][144]. Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol inventory had a de - stocking pressure, and the price was falling. It is recommended that the price will be weakly volatile, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [145][146]. Short - Fiber - The short - fiber supply - demand situation was weak, and the processing fee was under pressure. It is recommended that the price will be weakly volatile, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [147][148]. Bottle Chips - The bottle chips supply - demand was relatively loose, and the processing fee lacked an upward drive. It is recommended that the price will be weakly volatile, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [150]. Propylene - The propylene inventory was high, and the price was under pressure. It is recommended to go short on rallies, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [151][153]. Plastic PP - The PE capacity utilization rate was stable, and the PP production increased. It is recommended to wait and see for the L 2605 and PP 2605 contracts, pay attention to the pressure at recent high points, conduct long L2605 and short PP2605 arbitrage, and wait and see for options [154][155][156]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price was weak due to the large supply and weak demand. It is recommended that the price will be in a weak trend, wait and see for arbitrage and options [159][160]. PVC - The PVC price continued to decline due to the increase in supply and weak demand. It is recommended that the price will have difficulty in rebounding, wait and see for arbitrage and options [162][163][164]. Soda Ash - The soda ash supply increased and the demand decreased, and the price was weakening. It is recommended that the price will continue to be weak in the medium - long term, pay attention to the opportunity of short soda ash and long glass spread in the 05 contract, and wait and see for options [165][166][167]. Glass - The glass price oscillated downward due to the weak fundamental situation. It is recommended that the price will be in a weak trend, pay attention to the strategy opportunity of short soda ash and long glass in the 05 contract, conduct reverse arbitrage of 1 - 5 contracts, and wait and see for options [168][169][170]. Methanol - The methanol price continued to decline. It is recommended to go short on the 01 contract in the short term, pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [172][173]. Urea - The urea trading volume increased, but the futures price continued to decline. It is recommended that the price will be weakly volatile in the short - and medium - term, and pay attention to policy changes [174][175]. Pulp - The pulp spot price was strong, but the demand was mainly rigid. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try short positions based on the previous high, wait and see for arbitrage and options [176][178][179]. Logs - The log fundamentals were weakening. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 03 contract, gradually take profits on the 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage, and wait and see for options [181][183]. Offset Printing Paper - The supply pressure of offset printing paper remained high, and the transmission of high pulp prices was less than expected. It is recommended to conduct short operations, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell OP2602 - C - 4100 options [184][185][187]. Natural Rubber - The Thai rubber water - cup price difference continued to weaken, and the tire production increased month - on - month. It is recommended to try short positions on the RU 05 contract, hold long positions on the NR 02 contract, hold the RU2605 - NR2605 spread, and wait and see for options [188][190][191]. Butadiene Rubber - The high - cis butadiene rubber production decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is recommended to hold long positions on the BR 02 contract, hold the BR2602 - NR2602 spread, and wait and see for options [192][193][195].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - This year, apple production has decreased, the proportion of high - quality fruits is poor, and storage is more difficult. Market expectations suggest that the cold - storage inventory data is likely to be low. As of December 3, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 7635100 tons, a decrease of 32400 tons from the previous week. The cold - storage inventory peak this year is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and the apple quality is relatively poor. Therefore, the effective inventory is expected to be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong [5]. - For trading strategies, in the unilateral market, due to the relatively poor quality of new apples, fruit prices are somewhat supported, but demand is average. Apple prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the January contract and short on the October contract. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7][8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Information - **Spot prices**: The Fuji apple price index is 109.06, an increase of 1.15 from the previous day. The prices of some varieties such as Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, etc., remain unchanged. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.51, also unchanged [2]. - **Futures prices**: AP01 is at 9659, up 41 from the previous close; AP05 is at 9505, down 5; AP10 is at 8490, up 10. The spreads between some contracts have also changed, such as AP01 - AP05 increasing by 46, AP05 - AP10 decreasing by 15, etc. [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 against different futures contracts has also changed, for example, Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 decreased by 41 [2]. Market News and Views - **Transaction logic**: Low production, poor fruit quality, and low cold - storage inventory lead to strong apple fundamentals [5]. - **Transaction strategies**: Unilateral trading expects high - level fluctuations; arbitrage recommends going long on January and short on October; options suggest waiting and seeing [6][7][8]. - **Other data**: As of December 3, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 7635100 tons, a decrease of 32400 tons from the previous week. In October 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 3100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68.09% and a year - on - year increase of 8.54%. The cumulative import volume from January to October 2025 was 111200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.18%. The export volume in October 2025 was about 80400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.04% [5][8]. Related Attachments - The report provides 10 graphs, including the prices of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples, Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70 apples, AP contract basis, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrival volumes in some markets, 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple outbound volume [10][13][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton price broke through the previous platform and showed strong momentum, and it is expected to remain strong in the future due to favorable fundamental and macro factors. It is recommended to buy long positions on dips. [6] - The US cotton is expected to trade in a range, while the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trend upward with fluctuations. [7] - For the cotton market, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy for arbitrage and options trading. [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts were 13,860, 13,850, and 14,025 respectively, with price increases of 80, 90, and 125. The trading volumes of CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts were relatively small, at 227, 8, and 2 lots respectively. [2] - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price was 15,013 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan. The Cot A price was 73.95 cents/pound. [2] - **Price Spreads**: In cotton cross - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 10 (down 10), the 5 - 9 spread was - 175 (down 35), and the 9 - 1 spread was 165 (up 45). In cotton - yarn cross - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was - 180 (down 55), the 5 - 9 spread was - 130 (down 10), and the 9 - 1 spread was 65. [2] 3.2 Market News and Views 3.2.1 Cotton Market News - In the US cotton - growing regions, the average temperature decreased and precipitation was stable. The La Nina climate in the Northern Hemisphere winter may lead to lower - than - normal temperatures and potential drought during the sowing season. [4] - The Indian Cotton Association (CAI) adjusted the 2025/26 cotton balance sheet, with increased production, imports, and exports, and decreased domestic demand, resulting in a continued increase in ending stocks. [4] - In Pakistan, as of November 30, 2025, the new cotton market volume decreased by 1% year - on - year, textile mills' purchases decreased by 4% year - on - year, and unsold cotton increased by 16% year - on - year. [5] 3.2.2 Trading Logic - Fundamentals: The 2025/26 new cotton had a good harvest, and the sales progress was fast. There were rumors that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang might decrease next year, and Xinjiang textile mills were expected to expand production capacity. [6] - Macro - factors: The easing of Sino - US relations and the mutual reduction of tariffs were beneficial to China's textile and clothing exports. [6] 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: The US cotton is expected to trade in a range, while the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trend upward with fluctuations. [7] - **Arbitrage and Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy. [8][9] 3.2.4 Cotton - yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market was average, with high - count combed yarns selling well and inventories of other varieties slightly increasing. Spinners' price increases were somewhat accepted by downstream buyers, but the cash - flow situation was still not optimistic. [9] - The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market remained light, and manufacturers were mainly focused on inventory digestion. [9] 3.3 Options - On November 24, 2025, for the CF601C13400.CZC option, the closing price was 183.00, with a 71.0% increase; for the CF601P13000.CZC option, the closing price was 7.00, with a 75.9% decrease; for the CF601P12400.CZC option, the closing price was 2.00, with an 83.3% decrease. [11] - The 10 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton increased slightly. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively. [11] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased in both open interest and trading volume. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy for options trading. [12][13] 3.4 Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - adjusted domestic and international cotton price spreads, cotton basis for January, May, and September contracts, CY - CF spreads, and CF cross - period spreads. [15][18][22][23]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term peanut prices are relatively stable with supply increasing and downstream demand weak. Peanut futures will remain in high - level oscillations, and Peanut 01 has room to decline. [3][7] - Peanut oil and peanut meal prices are stable, and oil mills' theoretical profit from pressing is good. [5][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures Disk**: PK604 closed at 8030, up 18 (0.22%), with a trading volume of 70,538 (up 4.79%) and an open interest of 29,799 (up 6.23%); PK510 closed at 8220, down 2 (-0.02%), with a trading volume of 101 (up 53.03%) and an open interest of 805 (up 5.23%); PK601 closed at 8088, up 18 (0.22%), with a trading volume of 17,941 (down 21.37%) and an open interest of 52,878 (down 7.99%) [1] - **Spot and Basis**: Spot prices in Henan Nanyang were 7800, Shandong Jining and Linyi were 8200. Rizeshao peanut meal was 3250, Rizeshao soybean meal was 3030 (up 20), peanut oil was 14380, and Rizeshao first - grade soybean oil was 8440. Imported Sudanese peanuts were 8600, and Senegalese peanuts were 7600 [1] - **Spreads**: PK01 - PK04 spread was 58 (unchanged), PK04 - PK10 spread was - 190 (up 20), PK10 - PK01 spread was 132 (down 20) [1] Second Part: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan are weak, while those in the Northeast are stable. Imported peanut prices are stable. It is expected that short - term peanut spot prices will be relatively stable. Some peanut oil mills have raised their purchase prices, and peanut oil and soybean oil prices are stable. Rizeshao soybean meal prices have increased, and short - term peanut meal is strong [3][5] Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Peanuts 01 and 05 are in high - level oscillations. Short sell Peanut 01 at high prices [8] - **Monthly Spread**: Conduct reverse arbitrage on the 1 - 5 spread at high prices [9] - **Options**: Sell pk603 - P - 8200 at high prices [10] Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides charts of Shandong peanut spot prices, peanut oil mill pressing profits, peanut oil prices, peanut spot and continuous contract basis, peanut 10 - 1 contract spreads, and peanut 1 - 4 contract spreads [12][18][21]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - With the recent increase in the number of culled chickens, the previous supply pressure has been alleviated. It is expected that the short - term de - capacity speed will be relatively gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate within a range, and for the far - month contracts in April and May, long positions can be considered to be built at low prices as the supply pressure eases [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3144, down 9 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3559, up 8; JD09 closed at 4060, up 6 [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was - 415, down 17; the 05 - 09 spread was - 501, up 2; the 09 - 01 spread was 916, up 15 [2]. - **Ratio with Feed**: 01 egg/corn was 1.40, down 0.01; 01 egg/soybean meal was 1.02, down 0.01. Other ratios remained unchanged [2]. 2. Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the producing areas was 3.03 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the selling areas was 3.22 yuan/jin, unchanged [2]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens was 3.93 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin [2]. 3. Profit Calculation - **Costs**: The average price of corn was 2356, down 1; the average price of soybean meal was 3092, unchanged; the average price of egg - laying chicken feed was 2.58, unchanged [2]. - **Profits**: The average price of culled chickens was 3.93, up 0.03; the average price of chicks was 3.21, up 0.04; the profit per chicken was 1.91 yuan, up 0.96 from the previous day [2]. 4. Fundamental Information - **Price Trends**: The average price in the main producing areas was 3.02 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.22 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin. Egg prices in Beijing increased, and prices in different regions showed a pattern of rising and stabilizing [4]. - **Inventory**: In November, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, and an increase of 5.5% year - on - year. The estimated inventory in December 2025, November, February, and March was 1.348 billion, 1.338 billion, 1.325 billion, and 1.315 billion respectively [5]. - **Sales and Inventory**: As of December 5, the sales volume of eggs in representative selling areas decreased by 4% week - on - week. The average weekly inventory in the production and circulation links increased [6]. 5. Trading Logic - The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the supply pressure. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be gentle. Near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate within a range, and far - month contracts in April and May can be considered for long positions at low prices [7]. 6. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Long positions can be considered for far - month contracts at low prices [8]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [10].

大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 航运日报 2025 年 12 月 11 日 航运日报 研究员：贾瑞林 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） 1 / 6 大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 一、市场分析及策略推荐 市场持续消化 1 月宣涨预期，02 合约提前打入部分旺季预期，今日 EC 盘面维持震 荡偏强：从盘面表现来看，12 月 11 日，EC2602 收盘报 1689 点，较上一日收盘价+1.43%。 12/5 日 SCFI 欧线报 1400 美金/TEU，环比-0.28%。周一盘后放出最新一期 SCFIS 欧线 报 1509.10 点，环比+1.72%，略低于市场预期，主因 11 月底部分船司甩柜加船期延误所 致。另外，今日 CMA CGM 放出 1 月初线上报价 4500 美金/FEU，关注后续市场实际订 舱情况以及宣涨落地幅度。 【逻辑分析】 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数(欧线)日报 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

股指期货数据日报 单位：点、手、亿元 单位：手 | | 收盘价 | +/- | 成交量 | +/- | | 成交额 | +/- | | 持仓量 | +/- | 持仓保证金 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中证1000 | 7408.24 | -1.30% | 23,402 | | 9 % | 3,819 | | 6 % | | | | | | IM2512 | 7304.60 | -0.95% | 114,206 | | 6 % | 1,676 | | 6 % | 152,560 | -11,346 | 267 | | | IM2601 | 7222.80 | -0.97% | 13,373 | | 23% | 194 | | 23% | 29,304 | 2,033 | 5 | 1 | | IM2603 | 7063.00 | -0.94% | 48,158 | | 8 % | 683 | | 8 % | 121,558 | 5,599 | 206 | | | IM26 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 12 月 11 日 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/12/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2243 | 2 | 0.09% | 561,381 | -19.30% | 575,999 | -9.64% | | C2605 | | 2267 | 2 | 0.09% | 93,008 | -21.89% | 442,055 | 0.93% | | C2509 | | 2281 | 2 | 0.09% | 4,333 | -45.52% | 34,749 | 0.72% | | CS2601 | | 2523 | -9 | -0.36% | 87,796 | -20.76% | 167,795 | -4.88% | | CS2605 | | 2576 | -8 | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamentals of pulp are not optimistic, with a loose supply - demand situation for wood pulp and a record - high warehouse receipt out - flow. However, the pulp price is at a relatively low valuation level and may be oversold [3]. - The pulp price is affected by multiple factors. From a cyclical perspective, it may be close to the support level; from the international oil price perspective, the stabilization of oil price provides some support; and the large - scale warehouse receipt cancellation and out - flow also indicate a low - valuation situation [3]. - The consumption structure is favorable for broad - leaf pulp, and there is a possibility that the broad - leaf pulp is undervalued, and the balance sheet data supports the strengthening of the spread between broad - leaf and coniferous pulp [38][46]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Fundamentals - **Upstream**: Wood chip costs are declining, such as the fall in CME wood futures settlement prices, the decrease in the Russian wood products business confidence index, the increase in coniferous wood chip imports, and the decline in the import value index of wood chips and wood pellets [3]. - **Downstream**: The inventory of finished paper is piling up. In March, the inventory of finished products in the domestic paper industry increased month - on - month to 76.45 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%, and it has been increasing monthly for 12 consecutive months. In March, the inventory - to - sales ratio of US paper product wholesalers rose to 1.06% month - on - month, a year - on - year increase of 5.8%, and it has been rising monthly for 10 consecutive months [3]. 3.2 Valuation and Cycle - In the 7 - year cycle, in the first year (1990, 1997, 2004, 2011, 2018, 2025), the pulp price changes from year - on - year increase to year - on - year decrease, and the decline is generally no more than - 23%. Currently, the pulp price has a year - on - year decline of - 19%, which is close to the low - valuation level and may be oversold [3]. - The pulp price seems to have good regularity in the first three years of the seven - year cycle. According to this rule, the support level of the pulp price in 2025 is around a year - on - year decline of - 23%, and currently, the SP has reached a year - on - year decline of - 20%, close to the support level [13]. 3.3 Factors Affecting SP Single - Side - **Wood Chip Cost**: From May to now, the average closing price of the near - month CME wood futures is 545 US dollars per thousand board feet, a year - on - year increase of + 6.4%, with 9 consecutive months of marginal decline, which is negative for SP single - side [14]. - **Russian Wood Products Business Confidence Index**: In April, the index was - 10 points, a month - on - month decline, hitting a new low since September 2023, a year - on - year decline of - 13 points, with 11 consecutive months of marginal decline, negative for SP single - side [16]. - **Import Volume**: In March, the imported volume of coniferous pulp increased by 906,000 tons month - on - month, the imported volume of coniferous wood chips decreased by 9,000 tons month - on - month, and the total converted wood pulp volume was 910,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of - 6.2%, with 2 consecutive months of marginal increase, negative for SP single - side [18]. - **Import Value Index of Wood Chips or Wood Pellets**: In March, the index was 102.8 points, a month - on - month increase, a year - on - year decrease of - 3.5%, with both month - on - month and year - on - year increases, slightly positive for SP single - side [21]. - **Profit of the Paper Industry**: In March, the cumulative profit of the domestic paper industry declined by - 16.9%, with profits deteriorating for 6 consecutive months, negative for SP single - side [22]. - **Inventory of Finished Products in the Paper Industry**: In March, the inventory of finished products in the domestic paper industry was 76.45 billion yuan, a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of + 4.5%, with 12 consecutive months of marginal increase, negative for SP single - side [24]. - **International Crude Oil Price**: In April, the price was 65.9 US dollars per barrel, a month - on - month and year - on - year decline, hitting the largest decline since August 2023, with 3 consecutive months of month - on - month and year - on - year decline, negative for SP single - side [26]. - **Inventory - to - Sales Ratio of US Paper Product Wholesalers**: In March, the ratio was 1.06%, a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of + 5.8%, with 10 consecutive months of marginal increase, negative for SP single - side [28]. 3.4 Paper Production and Pulp Consumption - In April, domestic double - offset paper production was 832,000 tons, copperplate paper production was 334,000 tons, white cardboard production was 1.32 million tons, and tissue paper production was 1.258 million tons. The consumption of broad - leaf pulp was 2.27 million tons, and the consumption of coniferous pulp was 538,000 tons. The consumption ratio of broad - leaf to coniferous pulp in domestic finished paper was 4.22 times, a year - on - year increase of + 7.5%, with 5 consecutive months of marginal increase [38]. 3.5 Balance Sheet Data - **Supply**: In March, the import of non - coniferous wood chips was 1.492 million tons, broad - leaf pulp was 1.47 million tons, coniferous wood chips was 9,000 tons, and coniferous pulp was 906,000 tons. The ratio of broad - leaf fiber to coniferous fiber was 2.43 times, a year - on - year increase of + 21.8%, with the growth rate of broad - leaf fiber slowing down for 2 consecutive months [47]. - **Inventory**: In April, the social inventory of four ports (Qingdao, Changshu, Gaolan, and Tianjin) was 2.047 million tons, and the total inventory of the SHFE SP contract was 346,000 tons. The ratio of the two was 5.91 times, a year - on - year increase of + 26.9%. The relatively slow inventory accumulation of broad - leaf pulp is positive for the spread between broad - leaf and coniferous pulp [47]. - **Consumption**: In March, the consumption of coniferous pulp in Europe was 273,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons, with 4 consecutive months of marginal decrease, which is relatively negative for coniferous pulp consumption and positive for the spread between broad - leaf and coniferous pulp [48].

需求疲弱，成本支撑，造纸板块底部震荡 银河化工 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 目录 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 【逻辑分析】 【策略】 1.单边：SP2501：观望，若港口库存跌破200万吨且基差走强，可反手做多。OP2501：观望为主，背靠现货下沿做空。 2.套利：关注SP11-1反套机会。 3.期权：SP期权观望，OP期权，卖出OP2601-C-4400 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 纸 ...