Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive daily morning observation of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, energy and chemicals, and forest products. It analyzes the market conditions, influencing factors, and provides trading strategies for each sector. For example, in the financial derivatives sector, the stock index futures show differentiation, and the rapid repair period of treasury bond futures may have ended; in the agricultural products sector, different varieties have different supply - demand situations and price trends [19][25][59]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index differentiation continues. On Thursday, the stock index was stable with a slight increase. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes remained strong, while the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indexes were under pressure. The trading strategies include short - term oscillation in IF/IH, upward oscillation in IM/IC, and corresponding arbitrage and option strategies [19][20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The rapid repair period may have ended. On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. With the tax period affecting the market funds and the equity market's shock - strength, the upward momentum of bond futures has temporarily slowed down. It is recommended to try to go long on the TL contract at low prices [23][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The supply disturbances increase, and the market as a whole rises. The demand has slightly improved, and the South American weather affects the US soybean market. However, the overall supply - demand is relatively loose, and the domestic soybean meal has short - term support but long - term pressure [26]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price fluctuates at the bottom, and Zhengzhou sugar has strong support below. The Brazilian sugar supply pressure will gradually ease, but the northern hemisphere's sugar production is in an increasing cycle. The domestic sugar market is under supply pressure, but the price decline space is limited [30]. - **Oil and Fat Sector**: The international oil and fat prices have fallen. The domestic soybean oil is gradually destocking, and the rapeseed supply is expected to increase. The Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to reduce production and destock, but the destocking speed is slow. The overall oil and fat market will continue to oscillate [33][34]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The northern port's spot price is stable, and the market oscillates at a high level. The US corn is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the domestic corn has short - term stability but long - term pressure [36][38]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure has improved, and the spot price has generally risen. However, the overall inventory is still high, and the supply pressure still exists [40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the market oscillates at the bottom. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the oil mill has profits. The 03 peanut contract is weak, but the market still oscillates at the bottom [43][44]. - **Eggs**: As the Spring Festival stocking approaches, the egg price has risen. The spot price increase supports the futures market, but the upward space of the 03 contract is relatively limited [46][48]. - **Apples**: The pre - festival sales are good, and the apple price is firm. The high cost of apple warehouse receipts supports the price, and if the later demand is normal, the price of the 05 contract is likely to rise [51][52]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sentiment is optimistic, and the cotton price is supported. The short - term driving force of cotton is limited, but the medium - and long - term fundamentals are strong, and the market is expected to maintain a strong trend [56]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The demand has weakened marginally, and the steel price continues to oscillate. The construction steel sales have declined, the steel inventory has increased, and the cost has support. The steel price is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [60]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The driving force is not obvious, and the market oscillates. The Mongolian coal customs clearance is high, the domestic coal mine production has recovered, and the downstream winter storage is limited. The market is expected to oscillate [62][63]. - **Iron Ore**: The market expectations are volatile, and the ore price is weak. The global iron ore supply is abundant, and the domestic demand is expected to be low. The ore price is expected to be weak [65]. - **Ferroalloys**: After the adjustment, the bottom support is strong. The silicon iron and manganese silicon have stable demand and cost support, and it is recommended to hold long positions and add more at low prices [68][69]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical events have widened the trust gap, and gold and silver have reached new highs. The market risk - aversion sentiment has fluctuated, and the PCE data and asset allocation adjustment have promoted the rise of gold and silver. It is recommended to hold long positions in Shanghai gold and silver based on the 5 - day moving average [71][72]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The US dollar index has weakened, and precious metals have strongly made up for the increase. The geopolitical factors and the change of the US dollar asset confidence have affected the market. Platinum has a stronger upward driving force than palladium [75][76]. - **Copper**: The bullish momentum has weakened, and the copper price is in a high - level consolidation. The geopolitical risk has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the long - term supply of ore is tight. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [79]. - **Alumina**: The market mainly oscillates at a low level. The supply - demand is surplus, and the cost is expected to decline. It is recommended to protect the profit of the previous short positions [83][84]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the aluminum price has stabilized in oscillation. The geopolitical concern has dissipated, and the short - term downstream replenishment sentiment exists. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and be strong in the medium term [85][86]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The risk preference has boosted the aluminum alloy to oscillate at a high level. The geopolitical concern has dissipated, and the scrap aluminum supply is tight, which supports the price [87]. - **Zinc**: Pay attention to the change of domestic social inventory. The domestic zinc concentrate shortage has been alleviated, the refined zinc production has increased, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory change [92][93]. - **Lead**: There may be support below. The supply may improve, the consumption has weakened, and the inventory has increased. It is recommended to try to go long lightly at low prices near the support level [97][98]. - **Nickel**: The optimistic sentiment still exists, and the nickel price is in a high - level consolidation. The geopolitical situation is tense, and the Indonesian production target has been adjusted. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [100][101]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply - demand is tight, and the price is firm. The supply of raw materials is short, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long at low prices [103][104]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production reduction news has fermented, but the coking coal has dragged down the market. In the short term, the market is expected to be strong in oscillation. The demand is weak in the medium term, but if the production reduction of large factories is implemented, the price is expected to be strong [104]. - **Polysilicon**: The warehouse receipts have increased significantly, and the market expectation has weakened. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased in the short term, but the market is pessimistic about the future. It is recommended to participate cautiously [106][107]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is at a high level, and it is recommended to operate cautiously. The supply may be affected by policies and maintenance, and the demand is supported by "export rush" and pre - festival stocking. It is recommended to go long after the callback [109]. - **Tin**: Pay attention to the macro sentiment. The import of tin concentrate has increased, the inventory has increased, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is mainly affected by the macro sentiment in the short term [112]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate continues to decline, and it is necessary to pay attention to geopolitical dynamics. The spot freight rate is in the off - season decline, and the export tax rebate may delay the decline. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and hold the 6 - 10 positive spread [115][116][117]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical situation has eased, and the EIA inventory has increased. The increase in inventory and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have pressured the oil price, but the supply threat and the cold wave support the price. The oil price is expected to oscillate widely [121][122]. - **Asphalt**: The low inventory and low production support the spot price. The supply of raw materials is expected to be stable, and the market is in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the 03 contract and the BU4 - 6 positive spread [124][125]. - **Fuel Oil**: The cost is oscillating, and the short - term supply of low - sulfur fuel is abundant. The fuel price is affected by geopolitical and macro factors, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel is expected to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the FU59 positive spread [126][128]. - **LPG**: Propane still has support. The international LPG is tight, and the domestic supply and demand are relatively stable. The price is expected to oscillate widely [130][131]. - **Natural Gas**: There are still concerns about European supply, and there is a short squeeze in the US HH market. The European market is affected by cold weather, low inventory, and geopolitical risks, and the US market is affected by cold weather and supply - demand. It is recommended to hold short positions in TTF and JKM in the third quarter and sell call options [132][134]. - **PX & PTA**: The capital attention has increased. The PX supply is expected to be high, and the PTA is affected by cost and capital. The market is expected to oscillate widely [136][137][138]. - **BZ & EB**: The transaction of South Korean pure benzene to the US Gulf is good, and the supply of styrene has decreased due to unexpected shutdown of plants. The supply of pure benzene is expected to tighten, and the styrene supply has decreased. The styrene price is expected to be strong in the short term [139][140]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The Saudi maintenance may reduce imports, and the market oscillates widely. The supply may decrease, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate widely [144]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply is sufficient, and the terminal demand has weakened. The production load is expected to decrease, and the price follows the cost. The market is expected to oscillate widely [146][147]. - **Bottle Chips**: The maintenance has accelerated in mid - January. The production capacity is expected to decrease, and the replenishment momentum may slow down. The market is expected to oscillate widely [149]. - **Propylene**: The load continues to decline. The supply is affected by device maintenance, and the market has support. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [151][152]. - **Plastic PP**: The chemical sector has become stronger, and it is recommended to hold long positions. The domestic PE and PP production capacities have increased, and the market is supported by the chemical sector. It is recommended to hold long positions in L and PP [153][155]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price has weakened. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be weak [159][160]. - **PVC**: The market has risen in resonance. The supply is expected to decrease, the cost is stable, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be strong in oscillation [161][162]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures price has fallen. The supply is stable, the demand is good, and the price is expected to decline at a slower pace and oscillate [163][165]. - **Glass**: The futures price has fallen. The production is stable, the inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to decline at a slower pace and be weak in oscillation [166][167]. - **Methanol**: The market is running strongly. The international device start - up rate has declined, the domestic supply is loose, and the demand has support. It is recommended to go short in the short term and pay attention to the 59 positive spread [169]. - **Urea**: The market is oscillating. The domestic production is at a high level, the international market has limited impact, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak in oscillation [172]. Forest Products - **Pulp**: The pulp price oscillates widely. The supply exceeds demand, the inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to operate more [174][175][176]. - **Logs**: The spot price is stable with a slight increase. The supply pressure has not been significantly relieved, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions and switch the spread strategy [177][179]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the cultural paper spot price has weak rebound. The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short - sell in a small amount [180][181]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The synthetic rubber has led the rise. The tire production line start - up rate has increased, which is beneficial to the natural rubber market. It is recommended to wait and see and buy call options [183][184]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The synthetic rubber has led the rise, and multiple contracts have reached the daily limit. The inventory has changed, and the tire production line start - up rate has increased. It is recommended to hold the spread and buy call options [187][188][189].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent price increase is mainly due to the significant rise in spot prices. Given that the March contract is for the post - Chinese New Year period when egg demand is low and prices are weak, the upward space for the 03 contract is relatively limited. However, the egg market is starting to reduce production capacity, and it is expected that the production capacity will likely decline in the next few months [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Information - **Price Information**: The average price in the main production areas today is 3.69 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas is 3.95 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin. The national mainstream egg prices mostly continued to rise today, and the national average price of culled chickens also increased to 4.47 yuan/jin [2][4][7]. - **Inventory and Production Capacity**: In December, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month and a 5% year - on - year increase, lower than expected. The monthly output of laying - hen chicks in December was about 39.59 million (accounting for about 50% of the country), with little change month - on - month and a 13.9% year - on - year decrease. As of January 16, the weekly sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas decreased by 2.6% week - on - week to 7391 tons, at a historical low [4][5]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of January 15, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.13 yuan/jin, up 0.26 yuan from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production and circulation links both slightly decreased [6]. Trading Logic - The strong performance of spot prices provides some support for the futures market. Considering that the 03 contract is for the post - Chinese New Year period when egg demand is weak, its upward space is limited. The overall egg market is starting to reduce production capacity, and future production capacity is expected to decline [8]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Consider building long positions in the far - month 5 contracts on dips [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [11].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Galaxy Futures' Agricultural Products R & D Report - Oil Daily [1][10][15] - Report Date: January 22, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - **Soybean Oil**: The 2605 closing price was 8084, up 40. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8584, 8644, and 8474 respectively. Basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 560 (0 change), 500 (-20 change), and 390 (0 change) [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The 2605 closing price was 8944, up 112. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8914, 8924, and 9074 respectively. Basis in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were -30 (0 change), -20 (-10 change), and 130 (0 change) [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The 2605 closing price was 9002, up 55. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi were 9802 and 9852 respectively. Basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi were 800 (0 change) and 850 (0 change) [2]. Monthly Spread - **Soybean Oil 5 - 9**: The closing price was 86, down 10 [2]. - **Palm Oil 5 - 9**: The closing price was 46, up 8 [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil 5 - 9**: The closing price was 29, up 20 [2]. Cross - Variety Spread - **Y - P 05 Contract**: The spread was -860, down 72 [2]. - **OI - Y 05 Contract**: The spread was 918, up 15 [2]. - **OI - P 05 Contract**: The spread was 58, down 57 [2]. - **Oil - Meal Ratio**: The ratio was 2.92, down 0.03 [2]. Import Profit - **24 - Degree Palm Oil**: For Malaysia & Indonesia with a 2 - month ship - period, the CNF price was 1078, and the disk profit was -69 [2]. - **Crude Rapeseed Oil**: From Rotterdam with a 2 - month ship - period, the FOB price was 1043, and the disk profit was -1411 [2]. Weekly Commercial Inventory of Oils (Week 3, 2026, in tons) - **Soybean Oil**: This week's inventory was 877,000, last week was 963,000, and last year's same period was 1,025,000 [2]. - **Palm Oil**: This week's inventory was 746,000, last week was 736,000, and last year's same period was 469,000 [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: This week's inventory was 275,000, last week was 251,000, and last year's same period was 552,000 [2]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - SGS data showed that the estimated palm oil exports from Malaysia from January 1 - 20 were 658,379 tons, a 2.70% decrease compared to the same period last month [4]. Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: Affected by factors like crude oil, the palm oil futures price rose by over 1% today. As of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory was 746,100 tons, a 1.01 - ton increase from last week (1.37% increase), at a slightly above - average level in the same period historically. The origin's quotes were stable, and the import profit inversion narrowed to around -50. The basis was stable. With high inventory, the de - stocking speed is expected to be slow, and the market will likely remain volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The soybean oil futures price rose slightly today. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume in oil mills was 199,420 tons, with an operating rate of 54.86%, an increase from the previous week. As of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory was 963,300 tons, a 61,800 - ton decrease from last week (6.03% decrease). Although the inventory is decreasing, it is still at a high level in the same period historically. The basis is stable. With the increasing crushing rhythm of oil mills and the growing pre - holiday stocking demand from downstream, the inventory may decrease slightly, but the overall supply is still sufficient. The price increase is weak, and it is expected to remain volatile at the bottom in the short term [4][5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil futures price rose slightly today. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume in major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0%, and the rapeseed inventory was exhausted. As of January 16, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 275,000 tons, a 24,000 - ton increase from last week, at a neutral level in the same period historically, but the inventory is gradually decreasing. The European rapeseed oil FOB price remained stable at around $1030, and the import profit inversion widened to around -1300. There are rumors of domestic purchases of Canadian rapeseed. In the short term, the available spot supply of rapeseed oil is tight, supporting the basis. The expected increase in domestic rapeseed supply may lead to a weakening and volatile market, but considering the time needed for rapeseed purchases to arrive in March and the expected release of the US biodiesel final plan in March with positive biodiesel expectations, which is beneficial to soybean oil and rapeseed oil, the decline of the near - month rapeseed oil contracts may be limited [5]. Group 4: Trading Strategies Unilateral Strategy - In the short term, the oil market is volatile with increased fluctuations, many uncertainties, and no prominent contradictions. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Arbitrage Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see [8]. Options Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see [9]. Group 5: Related Attachments - **Chart 1**: East China Grade 1 Soybean Oil Spot Basis (Unit: Yuan/ton) [12] - **Chart 2**: South China 24 - Degree Palm Oil Spot Basis (Unit: Yuan/ton) [12] - **Chart 3**: East China Grade 3 Rapeseed Oil Spot Basis (Unit: Yuan/ton) [13] - **Chart 4**: Y 5 - 9 Monthly Spread (Unit: Yuan/ton) [13] - **Chart 5**: P 5 - 9 Monthly Spread (Unit: Yuan/ton) [16][17] - **Chart 6**: OI 5 - 9 Monthly Spread (Unit: Yuan/ton) [16][18] - **Chart 7**: Y - P 05 Spread (Unit: Yuan/ton) [20] - **Chart 8**: OI - Y 05 Spread (Unit: Yuan/ton) [20]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The spot freight rate is in a downward channel, with the near - month futures market remaining volatile. However, due to geopolitical factors, the expectation of full - scale resumption of the European route in the first half of the year is weak, and the far - month contracts are slightly stronger. The export tax rebate may slow down the decline of spot freight rates but is unlikely to reverse the trend. The market is divided on the intensity of the potential pre - policy rush of shipments, and the subsequent spot booking situation needs to be monitored [6][7]. 3. Summary by Section Container Shipping - Freight Index (European Route) - **Futures Market Data**: On January 22, 2026, for different EC contracts, the closing prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, trading volume change rates, open interests, and open interest change rates are presented. For example, EC2602 closed at 1,707.6, up 0.4 (0.02%), with a trading volume of 748.0 (down 3.86%) and an open interest of 4,681.0 (down 8.32%) [4]. - **Spread Structure**: The spreads between different contracts and their changes are given. For instance, the spread between EC02 - EC04 was 570, down 7.6 [4]. - **Container Freight Rates**: Weekly container freight rates, including SCFIS and SCFI for various routes, show different trends. SCFIS European route was at 1954.19 points, down 0.11% week - on - week and 29.89% year - on - year. SCFI: Shanghai - Europe was at 1676 USD/TEU, down 2.50% week - on - week and 41.21% year - on - year [4]. - **Fuel Costs**: WTI crude oil near - month was at 60.45 dollars/barrel, up 1.68% week - on - week and down 19.52% year - on - year. Brent crude oil near - month was at 64.62 dollars/barrel, up 1.86% week - on - week and down 17.6% year - on - year [4]. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Analysis**: Spot freight rates are in a downward trend during the off - season. The 04 contract has a discount. The high spot settlement price is due to ship delays in January, and the index is expected to decline. The spot freight rate inflection point has emerged, and the market is divided on the intensity of the potential pre - policy rush of shipments. Geopolitical uncertainties make it difficult for large - scale resumption of the European route in the first half of the year [6][7]. - **Trading Strategies**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see due to many short - term disturbances in the 04 contract and market divergence on the rush of shipments. For arbitrage, it is recommended to hold the 6 - 10 long - short spread [8][9]. Industry News - Trump stated at the Davos World Economic Forum that the US has no intention of using excessive force to acquire Greenland and will not implement the planned European tariff measures on February 1. - The European Parliament's International Trade Committee Chairman announced an indefinite freeze on the review of the EU - US trade agreement, and Denmark rejected Trump's negotiation request regarding Greenland [10][12]. Related Attachments The report includes multiple figures showing various shipping indices and container freight rates, such as SCFIS European and US West lines, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates for different routes [13][16][19].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report [2] - Date: January 22, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [4] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closing price 5,178, up 17 (0.33%), volume 17,654 (down 7,911), open interest 98,101 (up 1,348) [3] - SR01: Closing price 5,276, up 10 (0.19%), volume 292 (down 46), open interest 650 (up 181) [3] - SR05: Closing price 5,158, up 14 (0.27%), volume 221,201 (down 2,149), open interest 477,452 (up 16,093) [3] Spot Market - Prices in different locations: Liuzhou 5,340 (down 10), Kunming 5,160 (down 35), Wuhan 5,630 (unchanged), Nanning 5,310 (down 10), Bayuquan 5,530 (unchanged), Rizhao 5,455 (down 15), Xi'an 5,750 (down 40) [3] - Basis: Liuzhou 182, Kunming 2, Wuhan 472, Nanning 152, Bayuquan 372, Rizhao 297, Xi'an 592 [3] Monthly Spread - SR05 - SR01: Spread -118 (up 4), SR09 - SR05: Spread 20 (up 3), SR09 - SR01: Spread -98 (up 7) [3] Import Profit - Brazil: ICE主力 14.77, premium 0.16, freight 32.00, in - quota price 3,992, out - of - quota price 5,070, spread with Liuzhou 270, spread with Rizhao 385, spread with futures 206 [3] - Thailand: ICE主力 14.77, premium 0.89, freight 18.00, in - quota price 4,018, out - of - quota price 5,104, spread with Liuzhou 236, spread with Rizhao 351, spread with futures 172 [3] Group 3: Market Research Important Information - Brazil (Dec second half): Sugarcane crush 2.171 million tons (up 457,000 tons, 26.60% year - on - year), ATR 127.49kg/ton (up 4.16kg/ton), sugar - making ratio 21.24% (down 11.44%), ethanol output 561 million liters (up 73 million liters, 14.91%), sugar output 0.56 million tons (down 0.1 million tons, 14.93%) [5] - Brazil (cumulative to Dec second half, 2025/26 season): Sugarcane crush 600.397 million tons (down 13.992 million tons, 2.28% year - on - year), ATR 138.35kg/ton (down 3.11kg/ton), cumulative sugar - making ratio 50.82% (up 2.66%), cumulative ethanol output 30.838 billion liters (down 1.642 billion liters, 5.06%), cumulative sugar output 40.222 million tons (up 341,000 tons, 0.86%) [6] - China (2025): Dairy product output 29.503 million tons (down 1.1% year - on - year), December output 2.667 million tons (down 1.8% year - on - year); beverage output 179.253 million tons (up 3% year - on - year), December output 13.421 million tons (up 1.1% year - on - year); refined sugar output 16.21 million tons (up 9% year - on - year), December output 3.59 million tons (up 11% year - on - year) [6][8] Logical Analysis - International: Brazilian sugarcane is approaching the end of the harvest season, supply pressure will ease. The market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere, where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. India's high bi - weekly output may lead to an unexpected increase, putting downward pressure on international sugar prices. However, due to low sugar prices and strong commodities, ICE sugar is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [9] - Domestic: China's sugar is in the peak crushing season, and this season's output is likely to increase significantly, adding supply pressure. In 2025, China imported 4.9188 million tons of sugar, an increase of 0.5622 million tons year - on - year, also pressuring the domestic market. In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to continue to decline, but the decline space is limited as prices are already low, below the cost line of most domestic sugar mills, and international sugar prices provide support. The May contract is expected to have strong support near the previous low [9] Trading Strategies - Single - side: International sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. The May contract is expected to be weak in the short term but with limited downward space and strong support near the previous low [10] - Arbitrage: Hold off for now [11] - Options: Hold off for now [12] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures include Guangxi and Yunnan's monthly sugar inventory, monthly sugar production, Liuzhou's sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price spread, sugar futures' basis and spreads for different months [15][17][19][21][22][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This season, the high cost of apple warehouse receipts due to a low premium fruit rate strongly supports the apple futures price. As of January 14, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in major producing areas was 7.0466 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 162,500 tons. The de - stocking speed accelerated compared to the previous week but was lower than the same period last year. Considering this year's later Spring Festival, the peak sales period is also postponed, and current demand is acceptable. With low cold - storage inventory, if the normal de - stocking volume is maintained, the later apple supply will be tight. The market previously expected weak apple demand, causing the May contract to decline slightly recently. If apple demand remains normal later, the May contract price is likely to rise [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Spot Price**: The Fuji apple price index was 109.79, up 0.66 from the next working - day's price. The prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70, Qixia first and second - grade paper - bagged 80, and Penglai first and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remained stable. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 7.93, up 0.13 from the next working - day's price [2]. - **Futures Price**: AP01 was 8210, up 22 from the previous close; AP05 was 9489, up 71; AP10 was 8292, up 35. The spreads AP01 - AP05 was - 1279, down 49; AP05 - AP10 was 1197, up 36; AP10 - AP01 was 82, up 13 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first and second - grade 80 against AP01 was - 10, down 22 from the previous trading day; against AP05 was - 1289, down 71; against AP10 was - 92, down 32 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views - **Market News**: As of January 23, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in major producing areas was 6.8278 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% with a narrowing decline. In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%; the import volume was 3100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.31% and a year - on - year increase of 20.02%. The annual cumulative import volume in 2025 was 116,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.72%. In the Shandong production area, the price of high - quality apples remained stable, while the price of low - quality apples declined slightly. The market arrival was stable, and the mainstream market was stable. The mainstream transaction price of semi - commodity apples in Luochuan, Shaanxi, was 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per jin [7]. - **Trading Logic**: High - cost warehouse receipts support the futures price. Low cold - storage inventory and a later Spring Festival may lead to tight supply if the de - stocking volume is normal. The May contract may rise if demand remains normal [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in the May contract, short the October contract on rallies. Go long on the May contract and short the October contract for arbitrage. It is recommended to wait and see for options [8]. 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The report includes 10 figures, such as the price of Qixia first and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70 apples, the basis of AP contracts, and the spreads of different AP contracts, as well as the arrival volume of apples in wholesale markets, the price of 6 kinds of fruits, the cold - storage inventory of apples nationwide, and the cold - storage apple de - stocking volume [10][11][12]

研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2026 年 01 月 22 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 757.0 | 752.5 | 4.5 | I01-I05 | -29.5 | -31.5 | 2.0 | | DCE05 | 786.5 | 784.0 | 2.5 | I05-I09 | 17.0 | 17.5 | -0.5 | | DCE09 | 769.5 | 766.5 | 3.0 | I09-I01 | 12.5 | 14.0 | -1.5 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | P B粉(60.8%) | 790 | 795 | -5 | 858 | 97 | 66 | 83 | | 纽曼粉 | 790 | 795 | -5 | 864 | 104 | 72 | 90 | | 麦克粉 | 792 | 796 | -4 | 875 | 114 | 83 | 100 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Short - term cotton drivers are limited, but the medium - and long - term cotton fundamentals remain strong. After a significant recent price correction, cotton is expected to trade in a range in the short term. The short - term trend of US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be range - bound. For cotton trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options. The cotton yarn market will continue to be weak in the short term, and the overall situation of the cotton fabric market has not changed significantly [6][8][9][10] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various cotton (CF) and cotton yarn (CY) futures contracts are presented. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 15300 with a price increase of 145, and the CY05 contract closed at 20620 with a price increase of 105 [2] - **Spot Market**: The prices and price changes of various cotton and cotton yarn spot varieties are provided, such as the CCIndex3128B cotton price at 15839 yuan/ton with a decrease of 17, and the CY IndexC32S cotton yarn price at 21320 with no change [2] - **Price Spreads**: Different price spreads, including cotton inter - month spreads, cotton yarn inter - month spreads, cross - variety spreads, and internal - external spreads, are given. For instance, the 1 - 5 month cotton spread is 570 with a decrease of 50, and the internal - external cotton spread (1% tariff) is 2827 with an increase of 63 [2] Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - **West African Cotton**: In the 2025/26 season, the cotton planting area in West Africa is expected to be about 2.2 million hectares (about 33 million mu), a 6% year - on - year decrease. Mali's seed cotton production will drop by over one - third to about 435,000 tons, while Benin's total production is expected to increase by 2% to about 650,000 tons. The total production of the eight West African countries is expected to be 905,000 tons, a 6% year - on - year decrease [4] - **Pakistani Textiles**: In December 2025, Pakistan's textile exports were $1.11 billion, a 6% month - on - month and 8% year - on - year decrease. In the first six months of the 2025/26 fiscal year, the cumulative total textile exports were $7.6 billion, a 1% year - on - year slight increase [5] - **Xinjiang Cotton Transportation**: On January 22, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - outbound cotton was 0.1665 yuan/ton·km, a 0.77% month - on - month decrease. It is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term [5] Trading Logic and Strategies - **Logic**: The current cotton sales progress is fast, and downstream stocking willingness has increased. Short - term cotton drivers are limited, and the medium - and long - term fundamentals are strong. After a significant price correction, short - term range - bound trading is expected [6] - **Strategies**: For single - side trading, the short - term trends of US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to be range - bound. For arbitrage and options, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [8][9][10] Cotton Yarn Industry News - **Cotton Yarn Market**: The domestic cotton yarn market has been weak, with continuous price discounts. The trading volume is expected to decrease further. The prices of different cotton yarn products in various regions are provided [10] - **Cotton Fabric Market**: The overall situation of the cotton fabric market has not changed significantly, with slightly better sales of thinner plain - weave fabrics. Weaving mills' orders have increased slightly, but the delivery time is tight. They are cautious about the post - holiday market [10] Third Part: Options - **Option Data**: The closing prices, price changes, implied volatilities, and other relevant data of several cotton option contracts on January 19, 2026 are presented. For example, the CF605C14600.CZC option closed at 334 with a 16.9% decrease, and its implied volatility was 13.3% [12] - **Volatility Analysis**: The 60 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of different option contracts are also provided [12] - **Option Strategy**: A wait - and - see approach is recommended for options [14] Fourth Part: Related Attachments - Multiple figures are presented, including the internal - external cotton price difference under 1% tariff, cotton basis for different months, the price difference between cotton yarn and cotton futures contracts, and the inter - month price difference of cotton futures contracts [16][19][23][24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are expected to remain volatile before the Spring Festival. The market sentiment has declined recently, but there are signs of stabilization after the decline in the futures market. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - news on the market, as well as coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - **Spot Prices**: Shanghai Zhongtian threaded steel is priced at 3270 yuan, Beijing Jingye at 3130 yuan, Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil at 3280 yuan (up 10 yuan), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil at 3170 yuan [4]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Steel futures are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [6]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio on rallies and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to threaded steel spread [6]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Important Information** - **Threaded Steel**: This week, the small - sample production of threaded steel was 199.55 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.25 tons. The estimated apparent demand was 185.52 tons (a 6% year - on - year decrease in the lunar calendar), a week - on - week decrease of 4.82 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 6.32 tons, the social inventory increased by 7.71 tons, and the total inventory increased by 14.03 tons [8]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: This week, the production of hot - rolled coil was 305.41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.95 tons. The estimated apparent demand was 309.96 tons (a 2.39% year - on - year increase in the lunar calendar), a week - on - week decrease of 4.20 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 0.11 tons, the social inventory decreased by 4.66 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 4.55 tons [9]. Relevant Attachments The report provides a series of charts, including those related to the basis of different contracts of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil, price spreads between different contracts, the spread between hot - rolled coil and threaded steel, and various profit - related charts. The data sources for these charts are Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [12][16][18].

Report Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The impact of Venezuelan oil prices on the market has been gradually digested, the expectation of tight asphalt raw material supply has eased, and the increase in raw material discounts has not been fully traded. The asphalt is in a high - level shock. With the Iranian situation fluctuating and geopolitical risks expanding, unilateral risks should be noted. In the off - season at the beginning of the year, the weekly supply and demand decreased simultaneously, and the industrial chain inventory remained low. The spot price was relatively firm, and the short - term disk is expected to fluctuate at a high level [7] Summary by Directory Part 1: Relevant Data 1. Futures Prices and Positions - BU2603 (main contract) price rose from 3157 to 3242, an increase of 85 or 2.69%. BU2604 rose from 3170 to 3246, an increase of 76 or 2.40%. BU2605 rose from 3093 to 3247, an increase of 154 or 4.98%. SC2603 rose from 440.8 to 446.4, an increase of 5.6 or 1.27%. Brent first - line rose from 63.65 to 64.46, an increase of 0.8 or 1.27% [2] - The main contract's position increased from 18.7 million lots to 20.3 million lots, an increase of 1.6 million lots or 8.49%. The main contract's trading volume increased from 14.9 million lots to 30.0 million lots, an increase of 15.1 million lots or 101.87%. The warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 45,820 tons [2] 2. Basis and Calendar Spread - BU04 - 05 decreased from 77 to - 1, a decrease of 78 or 101.30%. BU04 - 03 increased from - 13 to - 4, an increase of 9 or - 130.77%. The Shandong - main contract basis decreased from 30 to - 36, a decrease of 66 or 220.00%. The East China - main contract basis decreased from - 20 to - 96, a decrease of 76 or 580.00%. The South China - main contract basis decreased from 10 to - 66, a decrease of 76 or 760.00% [2] 3. Industrial Chain Spot Prices - The Shandong market price rose from 3070 to 3080, an increase of 10 or 0.33%. The East China and South China market prices remained unchanged at 3150 and 3180 respectively. Shandong gasoline rose from 6976 to 6983, an increase of 7 or 0.10%. Shandong diesel rose from 5662 to 5676, an increase of 14 or 0.25%. Shandong petroleum coke remained unchanged at 2890. The diluted asphalt discount remained unchanged at - 13.2, and the exchange - rate mid - price rose slightly by 0.01% [2] 4. Spread and Profit - The asphalt refinery profit decreased from 7.21 to - 20.72, a decrease of 27.94 or 387.22%. The refined oil comprehensive profit decreased from 26.22 to - 3.90, a decrease of 30.12 or 114.89%. The BU - SC crack spread increased from - 412.53 to - 386.15, an increase of 26.38 or 6.39%. The gasoline spot - Brent spread decreased from 720.16 to 683.58, a decrease of 36.58 or 5.08%. The diesel spot - Brent spread decreased from 247.33 to 216.94, a decrease of 30.39 or 12.29% [2] Part 2: Market Analysis 1. Market Overview - On January 22, the average domestic asphalt market price was 3243 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.09% from the previous day. The higher asphalt futures boosted the market sentiment. Traders in Shandong raised their selling prices. In the South, the main refineries had stable shipments and lower inventory levels, supporting the stable prices of the main asphalt products. Some social warehouses in South China and East China slightly raised their selling prices [5] - In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price of heavy - traffic asphalt rose 10 to 3130 - 3220 yuan/ton. The strong futures price drove up the spot price, but the weak terminal demand limited the price increase [5] - In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3210 - 3210 yuan/ton. The main refineries' shipments by ship were good, and the inventory was at a medium - low level. However, the cold weather affected the demand, and the social warehouse shipments were average. The Zhenjiang warehouse price was slightly raised by 20 to about 3170 yuan/ton [5] - In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3110 - 3150 yuan/ton. The sharp rise in the futures price boosted the market sentiment, but most downstream users were cautious, and the high - price resource transactions were average. The local main refineries will keep low production and low inventory, so the mainstream transaction price will remain stable in the short term [6] 2. Market Outlook - The discount of Venezuelan oil raw materials has risen in the market quotation but there has been no real transaction. The impact of Venezuelan oil prices on the market has been gradually digested, and the expectation of tight asphalt raw material supply has eased. The asphalt is in a high - level shock. With the Iranian situation fluctuating and geopolitical risks expanding, unilateral risks should be noted. In the off - season at the beginning of the year, the weekly supply and demand decreased simultaneously, and the industrial chain inventory remained low. The spot price was relatively firm, and the short - term disk is expected to fluctuate at a high level [7] Part 3: Relevant Attachments - The report provides several figures including BU main contract closing price, BU main contract position, East China and Shandong asphalt market prices, Shandong refinery gasoline and diesel prices, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union [9]