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燃料油早报-20260119
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-19 02:32
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - This week, the cracking spread of Singapore 380 strengthened, the monthly spread rebounded significantly. The high-sulfur cracking spread in Europe rebounded, and the monthly spread also rebounded significantly. The high-sulfur EW was in a high-level oscillation. The cracking spread of Singapore 0.5% was at a historical low for the same period, rebounding month-on-month. The monthly spread strengthened slightly, and the basis oscillated at a low level. In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil had a slight inventory build, at a historical high year-on-year, ARA's residual oil had a slight inventory draw, and Fujairah's residual oil had an inventory build. This week, the situation in Iran affected the global heavy oil valuation. In the short term, the driving force of high-sulfur was stronger than that of low-sulfur. The high-sulfur spot tightened, and the cracking spread rebounded. The short-term downside space was limited, and the low-sulfur external market remained weak [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2026/01/12 | 2026/01/13 | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 | 319.41 | 338.39 | 342.84 | 333.76 | 341.06 | 7.30 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 | 381.51 | 393.07 | 397.96 | 384.56 | 389.58 | 5.02 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -12.48 | -11.61 | -11.23 | -10.45 | -10.09 | 0.36 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 | 606.35 | 634.60 | 639.10 | 621.40 | 634.20 | 12.80 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -224.84 | -241.53 | -241.14 | -236.84 | -244.62 | -7.78 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 19.89 | 21.98 | 21.50 | 21.81 | 23.19 | 1.38 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 62.10 | 54.68 | 55.12 | 50.80 | 48.52 | -2.28 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2026/01/12 | 2026/01/13 | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 338.12 | 346.25 | 360.39 | 359.16 | 356.84 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 346.55 | 353.19 | 366.14 | 363.46 | 363.27 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 418.09 | 422.84 | 428.26 | 426.98 | 426.45 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 79.92 | 81.26 | 82.45 | 81.65 | 81.51 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -9.22 | -8.90 | -7.37 | -7.10 | -6.79 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -173.32 | -178.48 | -181.87 | -177.23 | -176.72 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2026/01/12 | 2026/01/13 | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 337.29 | 344.30 | 358.10 | 358.88 | 358.34 | -0.54 | | FOB VLSFO | 417.42 | 424.25 | 431.74 | 429.02 | 429.37 | 0.35 | | 380 Basis | -1.22 | -1.80 | -1.50 | -1.45 | -1.65 | -0.20 | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 14.4 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 13.9 | 13.7 | -0.2 | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 12.2 | 15.8 | 16.0 | 14.9 | 15.3 | 0.4 | [2] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2026/01/12 | 2026/01/13 | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2436 | 2451 | 2513 | 2510 | 2485 | -25 | | FU 05 | 2465 | 2469 | 2578 | 2566 | 2520 | -46 | | FU 09 | 2452 | 2467 | 2546 | 2533 | 2498 | -35 | | FU 01 - 05 | -29 | -18 | -65 | -56 | -35 | 21 | | FU 05 - 09 | 13 | 2 | 32 | 33 | 22 | -11 | | FU 09 - 01 | 16 | 16 | 33 | 23 | 13 | -10 | [2] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2026/01/12 | 2026/01/13 | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3088 | 3112 | 3159 | 3166 | 3088 | -78 | | LU 05 | 3019 | 3063 | 3087 | 3074 | 3041 | -33 | | LU 09 | 3050 | 3081 | 3112 | 3090 | 3056 | -34 | | LU 01 - 05 | 69 | 49 | 72 | 92 | 47 | -45 | | LU 05 - 09 | -31 | -18 | -25 | -16 | -15 | 1 | | LU 09 - 01 | -38 | -31 | -47 | -76 | -32 | 44 | [3]
玻璃纯碱早报-20260119
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-19 02:30
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price and Contract Information**: From January 9 to January 16, 2026, the price of Shahe Anquan 5mm large - plate glass remained at 996.0, while Shahe Great Wall 5mm large - plate glass dropped by 17.0 to 976.0. The FG05 contract price decreased by 41.0 to 1103.0, and the FG09 contract price decreased by 29.0 to 1209.0. The FG 5 - 9 spread decreased by 12.0 to - 106.0 [1]. - **Base and Profit Information**: The 05 Hebei basis changed from - 151.0 to - 127.0, and the 05 Hubei basis changed from - 154.0 to - 113.0. The North China coal - fired profit decreased by 11.4 to 90.3, and the cost decreased by 5.6 to 885.7. The South China natural gas profit remained at - 188.1, and the North China natural gas profit decreased by 12.8 to - 364.5. The 05FG and 09FG on - screen natural gas profits also changed [1]. - **Market Conditions**: Shahe factory's glass production and sales were fair, with poor spot - futures trading; Shahe traders' prices were around 975, with average shipments. Hubei factories' prices were around 990, with fair trading. Hubei's mid - stream spot - futures 05 - 150 had poor trading. The glass production and sales rates were 135 in Shahe, 90 in Hubei, 91 in East China, and 105 in South China [1]. Soda Ash - **Price and Contract Information**: From January 9 to January 16, 2026, the price of Shahe heavy soda ash decreased by 40.0 to 1150.0, and the SA05 contract price decreased by 36.0 to 1192.0. The SA01 contract price decreased by 26.0 to 1115.0, and the SA09 contract price decreased by 36.0 to 1259.0. The SA01 Shahe basis changed from 49.0 to 35.0, and the SA month - spread 01 - 05 remained at - 77.0 [1]. - **Profit and Cost Information**: The North China ammonia - soda process profit decreased by 17.5 to - 218.0, and the cost decreased by 2.5 to 1338.0. The North China combined - soda process profit decreased by 54.9 to - 319.7 [1]. - **Market Conditions**: The spot price of heavy soda ash at the Hebei delivery warehouse was around 1120, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1150. The upstream inventory of the soda ash industry remained stable, and the mid - stream inventory slightly increased [1].
油脂油料早报-20260119
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-19 02:27
油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/01/19 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 : PatriaAgroNegocios:巴西2025/26年度大豆收割率为1.39% 咨询公司PatriaAgroNegocios发布的数据显示,巴西2025/26年度大豆收割率达到1.39%,而去年同期为0.23%。 Patria称,五年同期均值水平为1.02%。 在马托格罗索州,大豆收割率接近5%。该公司补充称:"马托格罗索州的进度是积极的,即使是在种植较早的地 区,在本年度之初也面临有限的天气条件。" Safras:巴西2025/26年度大豆产量预计将达到1.7928亿吨 巴西农业咨询机构Safras&Mercado称,巴西2025/26年度大豆产量预计将达到1.7928亿吨,较其在去年11月预测的 1.7876亿吨有所上调。 Safras称,产量较前一年度相比预计高出4.3%,并创下纪录新高。 巴西大豆种植面积预计将同比扩大1.5%,至4,833万公顷,约合1.1943亿英亩。预计平均单产为每公顷3,728公斤, 高于2024/25年度的每公顷3,625公斤。 Safras表示,对预估进行上修主要反映了中西部一些州的前景 ...
LPG早报-20260119
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-19 02:27
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic LPG market was greatly affected by geopolitical factors, rising first and then falling, with a slight upward shift in the weekly central price. The 02-03 and 3-4 spreads are in reverse arbitrage, and the follow - up needs to pay attention to the warehouse receipt situation. The internal and external valuations are relatively high, and the external market supply - demand pattern is expected to weaken. The domestic valuation is neutral [1]. - The PDH profit has been significantly repaired but is still poor. The port inventory decreased by 4.9%, the arrival of ships increased by 2.7%, and the overall shipment increased significantly. The refinery storage capacity rate decreased by 0.66 pct, and the external release decreased by 0.19%. The PDH operating rate is 73.07% (-2.54 pct), and there is an expectation of a continued decline in February [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Daily Data - From January 12 - 16, 2026, the prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as the prices of propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylation oil changed. The paper import profit and the main basis also changed. For example, the South China LPG price increased from 4890 to 5035, and the daily change on January 16 was - 10 [1]. - On Friday, the futures market opened lower and then fluctuated. The 02 - 03 spread was 70 (+5), the 03 - 4 spread was - 250 (+12), and the 02 - 4 spread was - 180 (+17). On Monday at 8:30 am, the FEI and CP paper prices reached 522.5 and 526.5 US dollars respectively [1]. Weekly Data - The domestic market was affected by geopolitical factors this week. The 02 basis was 138 (-41), the 02 - 3 spread was 70 (+15), and the 3 - 4 spread was - 250 (-58). The prices of civil gas increased, with Shandong at 4440 (+40), East China at 4523 (+56), and South China at 5035 (+195). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - after carbon four at 4340 (-50). The number of warehouse receipts was 5977 (-241) [1]. - The FEI and CP spreads increased, the MB spread decreased, the oil - gas ratio weakened, and FEI strengthened compared with CP and MB. The internal and external PG - FEI was 73.6 (-11.9), and PG - CP was 69.6 (-8). The arrival discount of propane in East China, China was 77 (-2); the FOB discounts of AFEI, Middle East, and US propane were 37.75 (+3.75), 29 (-1), and 50.8 US dollars (+9.12) respectively. The freight increased, and the US Gulf - Japan was 139 (+7). The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 27 (weekly +12) [1]. - The PDH profit was significantly repaired but still poor. The port inventory decreased by 4.9%, the arrival of ships increased by 2.7%, and the overall shipment increased significantly. The refinery storage capacity rate decreased by 0.66 pct, and the external release decreased by 0.19%. The PDH operating rate was 73.07% (-2.54 pct), and there are expectations of multiple device shutdowns in February, with a continued decline in the PDH operating rate expected [1].
合成橡胶早报-20260119
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-19 02:27
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR Futures Data - BR主力合约收盘价: 1月15日为12190元,日度变化 -60元,周度变化175元 [4] - 持仓量: 1月15日为99183手,日度变化 -1393手,周度变化72844手 [4] - 需求量: 1月15日为150035,日度变化 -26996,周度变化48814 [4] - 成交量: 12月17日为181436 [4] - 仓单数量: 1月15日为26330,日度变化0,周度变化2000 [4] - 虚实比: 1月15日为18.83,日度变化0,周度变化13 [4] - 顺丁基差: 1月15日为 -190,日度变化60,周度变化 -125 [4] - 丁苯基差: 1月15日为110,日度变化110,周度变化 -75 [4] Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety Data - 02 - 03月差: 1月15日为 -60,日度变化 -30,周度变化 -10 [4] - 03 - 04月差: 1月15日为 -35,日度变化 -10,周度变化 -12 [4] - RU - BR价差: 1月15日为3805,日度变化 -105,周度变化 -210 [4] - NR - BR价差: 1月15日为660,日度变化 -105,周度变化 -275 [4] Spot Price Data - 山东市场价: 1月15日为12000元,日度变化0,周度变化50元 [4] - 传化市场价: 1月15日为11950元,日度变化0,周度变化50元 [4] - 齐鲁出厂价: 1月15日为12100元,日度变化0,周度变化200元 [4] - CFR东北亚: 1月15日为1450美元,日度变化0,周度变化35美元 [4] - CFR东南亚: 1月15日为1675美元,日度变化0,周度变化40美元 [4] Profit Data - 现货加工利润: 1月15日为 -273元,日度变化 -77元,周度变化 -384元 [4] - 进口利润: 1月15日为75元,日度变化7元,周度变化 -211元 [4] - 出口利润: 1月15日为603元,日度变化 -7元,周度变化222元 [4] Other Spot and Profit Data - 山东市场价(另一品种): 1月15日为9875元,日度变化75元,周度变化425元 [4] - 江苏市场价: 1月15日为9650元,日度变化0,周度变化400元 [4] - 扬子出厂价: 1月15日为9550元,日度变化0,周度变化450元 [4] - CFR中国: 1月13日为1140美元 [4] - 乙烯裂解利润: 1月15日为 -33元,日度变化3元,周度变化9元 [4] - 碳四抽提利润: 1月14日为2648元 [4] - 进口利润(另一品种): 1月13日为190元 [4] - 出口利润(另一品种): 1月15日为 -1188元,日度变化240元,周度变化1493元 [4] - 丁苯生产利润: 1月15日为663元,日度变化 -25元,周度变化 -225元 [4] - ABS生产利润: 1月15日为 -871元,日度变化0,周度变化 -28元 [4] - SBS生产利润: 1月15日为 -215元,日度变化 -30元,周度变化 -220元 [4]
动力煤早报-20260119
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-19 02:27
最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 706.0 0.0 6.0 -26.0 -64.0 25省终端可用天数 20.1 0.0 0.1 -0.8 2.5 秦皇岛5000 620.0 0.0 9.0 -11.0 -60.0 25省终端供煤 590.4 8.8 -18.2 -49.7 -32.5 广州港5500 810.0 0.0 0.0 -20.0 -60.0 北方港库存 2593.0 -33.0 62.0 -227.0 277.7 鄂尔多斯5500 505.0 -5.0 5.0 -5.0 -55.0 北方锚地船舶 104.0 2.0 -12.0 35.0 28.0 大同5500 560.0 -5.0 5.0 -5.0 -80.0 北方港调入量 161.9 11.7 28.8 27.9 25.8 榆林6000 690.0 0.0 0.0 -22.0 -72.0 北方港吞吐量 170.8 -4.6 36.6 29.8 14.7 榆林6200 745.0 0.0 0.0 -10.0 -45.0 CBCFI海运指数 625.8 3.1 16.6 10.3 136. ...
波动率数据日报-20260116
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-16 05:13
Group 1: Implied Volatility Index and Historical Volatility - The financial options implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day. The commodity options implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the implied volatilities of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract month, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility: a larger difference indicates that the implied volatility is relatively higher than historical volatility, while a smaller difference means the opposite [3] Group 2: Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile - The implied volatility quantile represents the current level of a variety's implied volatility in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low [5] - The volatility spread involves the implied volatility index and historical volatility [5]
贵金属早报-20260116
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-16 02:42
Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4610.85 with a change of 4.35 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 91.27 with a change of 0.17 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 2397.00 with a change of 9.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1845.00 with a change of -38.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 59.19 with a change of -2.83 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 13089.50 with a change of -158.00 [1] - US Dollar Index's latest value is 99.34 with a change of 0.27 [1] - Euro to US Dollar's latest rate is 1.16 with a change of -0.00 [1] - British Pound to US Dollar's latest rate is 1.34 with a change of -0.01 [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen's latest rate is 158.62 with a change of 0.15 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory is 13479.69 with a change of -30.43 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory is 638.40 with a change of 9.70 [1] - Gold ETF持仓 is 1074.80 with a change of 0.57 [1] - Silver ETF持仓 is 16061.78 with a change of -180.44 [1] - SGE Silver inventory change is not given, and the latest value is not shown [1] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction change is 2, and the latest value is not shown [1] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction change is 0.00, and the latest value is 2 [1]
铁合金早报-20260116
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-16 02:35
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint There is no clear core viewpoint presented in the provided content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - In the iron alloy market, the latest prices of different grades of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese in various regions are presented, along with their daily and weekly changes. For example, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon - iron is 5320, with no daily change and a 50 decrease weekly, and its factory price converted to the futures price is 5620 [1]. - Price trends of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese in different regions from 2022 - 2026 are shown, including market prices, export and import prices, and basis differences [2][6]. Supply - Data on the production of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese are provided, such as the monthly production of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China from 2022 - 2026, and the weekly production of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China (with a 95% capacity share) [4]. - The capacity utilization rates of 136 silicon - iron production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2022 - 2026 are presented [4]. - Information about the production and supply of related products like metal magnesium and stainless - steel crude steel is also included, such as the monthly production of stainless - steel crude steel in China from 2022 - 2026 [4]. Demand - Demand - related data such as the estimated and actual production of crude steel in China from 2022 - 2026 are provided, along with the demand for silicon - manganese in China (according to the Steel Union's data) [4][7]. - The procurement volume and price of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group are presented [4][6]. Inventory - Inventory data of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese are shown, including the weekly inventory of 60 sample silicon - iron enterprises in China and in different regions (Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi), and the daily inventory - related data such as the total number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts on CZCE [5]. - For silicon - manganese, inventory data such as the total number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the combined inventory on CZCE are provided, along with the inventory of 63 sample silicon - manganese enterprises in China (weekly, in tons) [7]. Cost and Profit - Cost - related data such as electricity prices for iron alloys in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi) from 2022 - 2026, and the market price of semi - coke in Shaanxi are presented [5]. - Profit - related data such as the production profit of semi - coke in China, the production cost and profit of silicon - iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the profit of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and different regions are provided [5][7].
永安期货焦炭日报-20260116
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-16 02:26
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Coke Daily Report [1] - Date: January 16, 2026 [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Group 2: Price Information - **Coke Prices**: - Shanxi Standard First - Wet Quenched: 1430.97, no daily change, no weekly change, monthly change -109.23, year - on - year -11.18% [2] - Hebei Standard First - Dry Quenched: 1680.00, no daily change, no weekly change, monthly change -110.00, year - on - year 7.69% [2] - Shandong Standard First - Dry Quenched: 1625.00, no daily change, no weekly change, monthly change -90.00, year - on - year -9.22% [2] - Jiangsu Standard First - Dry Quenched: 1645.00, no daily change, no weekly change, monthly change -110.00, year - on - year -10.11% [2] - Inner Mongolia Second - Grade: 1130.00, no daily change, no weekly change, monthly change -100.00, year - on - year -13.08% [2] - **Futures Prices**: - Futures 05: 1743.5, daily change -3.50, weekly change -3.00, monthly change 81.50, year - on - year 1.10% [2] - Futures 09: 1818.5, daily change -5.00, weekly change -2.50, monthly change 79.00, year - on - year 1.59% [2] - Futures 01: 1500, no daily change, no weekly change, monthly change 5.50, year - on - year -18.92% [2] Group 3: Production and Capacity Information - **Blast Furnace**: - Blast Furnace Operating Rate: 85.48, weekly change -0.56, monthly change 0.55, year - on - year 1.47% [2] - Daily Average Hot Metal Output: 228.01, weekly change -1.49, monthly change 1.46, year - on - year 1.57% [2] - **Coking Plants**: - Coking Plant Inventory: 40.61, weekly change -3.56, monthly change -11.29, year - on - year -39.01% [2] - Coking Capacity Utilization Rate: 71.61, weekly change 0.87, monthly change -0.31, year - on - year -1.28% [2] - Daily Coke Output: 50.40, weekly change 0.65, monthly change -0.90, year - on - year -5.41% [2] Group 4: Inventory Information - **Port Inventory**: 188.07, weekly change 3.97, monthly change 12.42, year - on - year 1.87% [2] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: 650.33, weekly change 4.60, monthly change 16.60, year - on - year -4.83% [2] - **Steel Mill Inventory Days**: 11.97, weekly change -0.05, monthly change 0.25, year - on - year -11.79% [2] Group 5: Basis and Spread Information - **Basis**: - 05 Basis: -16.65, daily change 3.50, weekly change 3.00, monthly change -188.19, year - on - year -207.35 [2] - 09 Basis: -91.65, daily change 5.00, weekly change 2.50, monthly change -185.69, year - on - year -216.85 [2] - 01 Basis: 226.85, no daily change, no weekly change, monthly change -112.19, year - on - year 161.65 [2] - **Spread**: - 5 - 9 Spread: -243.50, daily change 3.50, weekly change 3.00, monthly change -76.00, year - on - year -369.00 [2] - 9 - 1 Spread: -75.00, daily change 1.50, weekly change -0.50, monthly change 2.50, year - on - year -9.50 [2] - 1 - 5 Spread: 318.50, daily change -5.00, weekly change -2.50, monthly change 73.50, year - on - year 378.50 [2]