免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 现 货 价 格 | 现 货 价 格 | 日期 | 豆粕江苏 | 菜粕广东 | 豆油江苏 | 棕榈油广州 | 菜油江苏 | 2025/08/27 | 2970 | 2550 | 8610 | 9440 | 9970 | 2025/08/28 | 2960 | 2520 | 8580 | 9350 | 9 ...

| | | | | | 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/9/3 | | 2025/8/26 | | 2025/9/1 | | 2025/9/2 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/8/26 | 2025/9/1 | | 2025/9/2 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1130.0 | 1130.0 | 1130.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 984.0 | 943.0 | 955.0 | -29.0 | 12.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1113.0 | 1104.0 | 1104.0 | -9.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1173.0 | 1137.0 | 1134.0 | -39.0 | -3.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | 1113.0 | 1104.0 | 1104.0 | -9.0 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/09/03 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/08/27 150 875 81698 21287 90.69 499.84 53.0 61.0 -89.93 156100 13250 2025/08/28 200 729 81698 21232 309.94 609.05 55.0 59.0 -82.79 157950 13100 2025/08/29 255 862 79748 21412 93.34 367.91 55.0 59.0 -80.26 158900 13050 2025/09/01 240 1031 79748 20200 -66.94 292.08 55.0 58.0 -86.27 158875 13175 2025/09/02 220 1281 79748 19501 -38.94 411.32 55.0 58.0 -69.58 158775 13075 变化 -20 250 0 ...

1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 临汾出厂价 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 900.00 1400.00 1900.00 2400.00 2900.00 3400.00 3900.00 4400.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 吕梁出厂价 焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/9/3 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1535.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 109.23 | -2.82% 高炉开工率 | 90.02 | | -0.23 | -0.22 | 6.79% | | 河北准一湿熄 | 1780.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on September 3, 2025, aiming to help investors find potential arbitrage opportunities [1][4][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price in China is 80140, LME price is 9818, and the ratio is 8.15; March price in China is 79600, LME price is 9888, and the ratio is 8.08. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.13, with a profit of - 38.94, and the profit for spot export is - 423.72 [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot price in China is 22150, LME price is 2872, and the ratio is 7.71; March price in China is 22315, LME price is 2852, and the ratio is 5.91. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.60, with a profit of - 2542.17 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot price in China is 20710, LME price is 2624, and the ratio is 7.89; March price in China is 20710, LME price is 2619, and the ratio is 7.92. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.41, with a profit of - 1369.16 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot price in China is 122000, LME price is 15185, and the ratio is 8.03. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.20, with a profit of - 1683.11 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot price in China is 16650, LME price is 1953, and the ratio is 8.56; March price in China is 16865, LME price is 1996, and the ratio is 11.16. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.85, with a profit of - 555.67 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May minus the spot month are - 110, - 170, - 180, and - 220 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 501, 900, 1308, and 1715 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May minus the spot month are 175, 165, 165, and 165 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 334, 453, and 573 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May minus the spot month are 60, 50, 35, and 20 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 330, 445, and 560 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May minus the spot month are 40, 55, 55, and 85 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 209, 314, 419, and 524 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May minus the spot month are - 690, - 490, - 340, and - 190 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 640, and the theoretical spread is 5672 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are - 305 and - 415 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 205 and 633 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are 0 and 175 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 147 and 276 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are 160 and 200 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 144 and 255 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.57, 3.84, 4.72, 0.93, 1.23, and 0.76 respectively, and in London (three - continuous) are 3.48, 3.81, 5.01, 0.91, 1.31, and 0.70 respectively [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the first half of September (week36 - 37). The average quote for week36 is $2,270 (equivalent to 1,600 points on the futures market), and for week37 it's $2,125 (1,450 points). There are price adjustments among different shipping alliances. The overall situation in September has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the downward trend will continue for at least two more weeks. The decline in October depends on shipping companies' suspension of voyages. The price of the October contract is close to the annual low (1,250 - 1,300), with limited downside. The December contract may decline in the short - term but presents opportunities to go long at low prices as it is in the peak season and long - term contract negotiation period [2][16] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - EC2510: Yesterday's closing price was 1,291.4, up 2.41%, with a benchmark of 482.2, a trading volume of 29,155, an open interest of 52,271, and a decrease of 989 in open interest [2][16] - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1,640.9, up 5.00%, with a benchmark of 132.7, a trading volume of 11,198, an open interest of 16,495, and a decrease of 828 in open interest [2][16] - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1,461.3, up 3.78%, with a benchmark of 312.3, a trading volume of 1,540, an open interest of 4,846, and a change of 1 - 7 in open interest [2][16] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1,241.8, up 3.11%, with a benchmark of 531.8, a trading volume of 1,721, an open interest of 7,069, and a decrease of 67 in open interest [2][16] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1,428.5, up 3.81%, with a benchmark of 345.1, a trading volume of 174, an open interest of 890, and an increase of 23 in open interest [2][16] Month - to - Month Spread - EC2510 - 2512: The previous day's spread was - 349.5, with a daily decrease of 47.8 and a weekly decrease of 24.5 [2][16] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's spread was 179.6, with a daily increase of 25.0 and a weekly increase of 5.0 [2][16] Spot Indexes - SCFI (European route): As of September 1, 2025, it was 1,773.6, down 10.88% from the previous period and 8.71% from the same period last year [2][16] - CCFI: As of August 29, 2025, it was 1,685.8, down 4.09% from the previous period and 1.83% from the same period last year [2][16] - NCFI: As of August 29, 2025, it was 929.56, down 14.25% from the previous period and 8.83% from the same period last year [2][16] Recent European Route Quotations - Week36: The latest quotes from shipping companies range from $2,120 - 2,420, with an average of $2,250 (1,550 points). PA Alliance quotes are between $2,200 - 2,300, MSK was initially $2,100 and then rose to $2,200, and OA Alliance quotes are between $2,300 - 2,400 [3][17] - Week37: The latest average quote is $2,100 (1,450 points). MSK's quote was initially $1,900 and then rose to $1,950, PA Alliance quotes are between $2,100 - 2,150, and OA Alliance quotes are between $2,100 - 2,300 [3][17] Fundamental Information - The weekly average shipping capacity in September and October is 296,000 and 309,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended voyages, it becomes 296,000 and 281,000 TEU [2][16] News - On September 1, US media reported that the US plans to rebuild Gaza and control the region for at least 10 years [4][18] - On September 1, the Houthi armed forces claimed to have attacked an oil tanker in the northern Red Sea. The Israeli military launched an air strike on Sana'a on August 28, and on August 31, Houthi leader Abdul - Malik al - Houthi said they would launch retaliation and escalate military attacks and shipping blockades against Israel [4][18]

Report Overview - The report is a methanol polyolefin morning report released on September 2, 2025, by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [1] Methanol Data Summary - From August 26 to September 1, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801, while the prices of methanol in different regions showed some fluctuations. For example, the Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2275 to 2230, and the Northwest discounted price decreased from 2680 to 2645 [2] Core View - The trading logic is that the port pressure is transmitted to the inland. Although the inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increments from Lianhong, the port will continuously form a backflow impact. Currently, the price on the disk is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland's actions are crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but the inventory is still accumulating. The backflow can resolve the port pressure but will affect the inland valuation. Currently, the valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. Therefore, it is necessary to wait before bottom - fishing [2] Plastic (Polyethylene) Data Summary - From August 26 to September 1, 2025, the prices of polyethylene in different regions and forms showed a downward trend. For example, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained stable at 840, while the North China LL price decreased from 7270 to 7170, and the East China LL price decreased from 7400 to 7290 [6] Core View - The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. The upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and coal chemical industries are destocking, the social inventory is flat, and the downstream raw material and finished product inventories are also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for the time being. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The maintenance in September is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion situation and the US quotation. The pressure from new devices in 2025 is large, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices [6] Polypropylene (PP) Data Summary - From August 26 to September 1, 2025, the prices of polypropylene in different regions and forms showed a downward trend. For example, the Shandong propylene price increased from 6450 to 6580, while the East China PP price decreased from 6985 to 6845 [7] Core View - The upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and the middle - stream of polypropylene are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. The export situation has been good this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral, and the markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, the propylene price is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The drawing production scheduling is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If the export volume continues to increase or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7] PVC Data Summary - From August 26 to September 1, 2025, the prices of PVC in different regions and forms showed some fluctuations. For example, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2350 to 2300, and the Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 887 to 882 [7] Core View - The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventories of the middle and upstream are continuously accumulating. The Northwest devices have seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders have slightly decreased. The coal market sentiment is good, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether the subsequent export orders can support the high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices broke through and moved upward this week. With supply disruptions and strong underlying support, attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly and internal - external structures from September to October and potential squeeze risks [1]. - Aluminum supply increased slightly. With expected inventory depletion in September and a low - inventory pattern, attention should be paid to the far - month monthly and internal - external reverse spreads [1]. - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. In the short term, it is expected to rebound with the support of interest - rate cut expectations and domestic commodity sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see, and be in a short - position configuration in the medium and long term. Internal - external positive spreads can be held, and monthly positive spreads can be noted [2][3]. - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is average. With the cooling of macro - level anti - involution sentiment and the ongoing situation in Indonesia, continuous attention is needed [3][4]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak. Follow - up attention should be paid to the development of the Indonesian demonstration incident [7]. - Lead prices oscillated this week. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a low - level oscillation next week and may test the 17,000 mark [9]. - Tin prices oscillated upward this week. With short - term supply - demand weakness, attention should be paid to the potential supply - demand mismatch from September to October and the impact of interest - rate cut expectations [12]. - Industrial silicon's short - term supply - demand balance depends on Hesheng's resumption progress. In the medium and long term, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [15]. - Lithium carbonate prices declined this week. With the approaching of the downstream peak season, the monthly balance has turned to continuous inventory depletion, and the price elasticity is large when supply - side disturbance speculation materializes [17][18]. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price and Market Data**: From August 26 to September 1, the spot price of Shanghai copper fluctuated, with a change of - 15; the premium and discount changed by 169; the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1212 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Market orders showed resilience, and the distinction between peak and off - peak seasons in copper rod operating rates was not obvious. The spread between refined and scrap copper was tight, and the operating rates of recycled copper rods in some areas declined, raising concerns about anode copper production in September and October. The planned production of electrolytic copper in September decreased unexpectedly [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Data**: From August 26 to September 1, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots decreased by 110, 110, and 100 respectively; the domestic alumina price decreased by 8 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased slightly, with imports from January to July providing an increment. August was a seasonal off - peak season for demand, with a slight improvement in the second half of the month. Inventory was expected to deplete in September [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: From August 26 to September 1, the spot premium and discount changed by - 10; the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 90. Domestic social inventory oscillated upward, and LME inventory decreased by 625 [2]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, domestic TC was difficult to rise, while imported TC increased. On the demand side, domestic demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience, and overseas demand was average with potential supply shortages [2][3]. Nickel - **Price and Market Data**: From August 26 to September 1, the spot price of Shanghai nickel increased by 2150; the spot import return increased by 542.75 [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply of pure nickel remained at a high level, demand was weak overall, and domestic inventory decreased slightly while overseas inventory remained stable [3][4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market Data**: From August 26 to September 1, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled remained unchanged [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Some steel mills cut production passively, demand was mainly for rigid needs, nickel - iron prices remained stable, and chromium - iron prices increased slightly. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan remained stable [7]. Lead - **Price and Market Data**: From August 26 to September 1, the spot premium and discount increased by 10; LME inventory decreased by 1500 [9]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, scrap volume was weak year - on - year, and the production of recycled lead was at a low level. On the demand side, battery finished - product inventory was high, and the market's peak season was not prosperous [9]. Tin - **Price and Market Data**: From August 26 to September 1, the spot import return decreased by 268.20; LME inventory increased by 145 [12]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, domestic smelters cut production, and overseas production faced constraints. On the demand side, solder demand had limited elasticity, and domestic inventory decreased slightly [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Market Data**: From August 26 to September 1, the 421 Yunnan, 421 Sichuan, 553 East China, and 553 Tianjin basis all decreased by 105; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 53 [15]. - **Fundamentals**: Xinjiang's leading enterprises' resumption of production was stable with an expected acceleration. The short - term supply - demand balance depends on Hesheng's resumption progress, and in the medium and long term, there is over - capacity [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market Data**: From August 26 to September 1, the SMM electric carbon and industrial carbon prices decreased by 1300; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 1310 [17]. - **Fundamentals**: The market was affected by supply - side disturbances and downstream seasonal peak seasons. The monthly balance has turned to continuous inventory depletion, and price elasticity is large [17][18].

| 11 1 2 11 11 | | | --- | --- | | SOURCE POINT | SOURCE | | -- | | | 乖 亦安期货 | | --- | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/09/02 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 国外债券市场 股 票 市 场 汇 率 市 场 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | ...

900.00 1400.00 1900.00 2400.00 2900.00 3400.00 3900.00 4400.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 吕梁出厂价 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 4000.00 4500.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 日照港准一平仓 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 长治出厂价 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4500.00 青岛港准一平仓 1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 4000.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 ...