Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices rebounded this week, and geopolitical risks escalated. The unstable situation in Iran continued over the weekend. Trump received a briefing on military strike plans against Iran but has not made a final decision on authorizing the strike. Israel is on high alert for the possibility of US intervention in Iran, and Iran has warned that if attacked, it will strike back at Israel and the US. The Iranian president has shown a willingness to meet with protest groups, indicating a tendency towards reconciliation. If the US strikes Iran, oil prices may surge due to geopolitical risks. From a fundamental perspective, oil inventories increased this week, the Dubai monthly spread strengthened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking margins strengthened while diesel cracking margins fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, and the price center in the first quarter is expected to be high and volatile [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Data - **International Crude Oil Prices**: From January 9th to 15th, WTI prices decreased by $2.83, BRENT prices decreased by $2.76, and DUBAI prices decreased by $1.29. Other related price spreads and differentials also showed various changes [3]. - **Domestic and Other Related Prices**: From January 9th to 15th, SC prices decreased by $0.60, OMAN prices decreased by $2.16, and the SC - BRT spread increased by $2.73. Domestic gasoline prices increased by 40 yuan, and the domestic gasoline - BRT spread increased by 204 yuan. Other related prices and spreads also changed accordingly [3]. 3.2 Daily News - **Iran Situation**: Iraq has emphasized its opposition to the use of its territory as a springboard for attacks on Iran. The US Treasury has announced new sanctions against Iran, and at least one US aircraft carrier is being deployed to the Middle East. The US has lowered the security alert level at a Qatari air base. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has requested Trump to postpone the attack on Iran to allow Israel more time to prepare for possible retaliation. Trump has stated that the Iranian government may collapse due to unrest but that "any regime can fail." The White House has said that Trump is closely monitoring the situation in Iran and retains all options on the Iran issue. The Iranian ambassador to Pakistan has said that Trump has informed Iran that he has no intention of launching an attack and has asked Tehran to exercise restraint. The President of the European Commission, von der Leyen, has called for increased sanctions against Iran. Trump is delaying the decision on striking Iran, and the White House is consulting internally and with allies on the matter [3][4]. - **Venezuela Oil**: Trafigura, a large commodity trader assigned by Trump to sell Venezuelan oil, is preparing to unload its first batch of cargo after deploying a ship off the coast of Curaçao Island. The arrival of the oil tanker at the Caribbean island marks the next step in the process, and the region is likely to become a transit point for exports [5]. 3.3 Inventory - EIA reports show that in the week ending January 9th, US crude oil exports increased by 43,000 barrels per day to 4.306 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 58,000 barrels to 13.753 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.391 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a 0.81% increase; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 19.98 million barrels per day, a 1.14% decrease compared to the same period last year; the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 214,000 barrels to 413.7 million barrels, a 0.05% increase; and crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 7.092 million barrels per day, an increase of 753,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. US gasoline inventories for the week ending January 9th were 8.977 million barrels, higher than the expected 3.565 million barrels and the previous value of 7.702 million barrels. US refined oil inventories for the same period were - 29,000 barrels, lower than the expected 512,000 barrels and the previous value of 5.594 million barrels [5].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Coking Coal Daily Report [1] - Research team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] - Report date: January 16, 2026 [1] Group 2: Price Information - **Domestic Coking Coal Prices**: - The latest price of Liulin Main Coking Coal is 1426.00, with a weekly increase of 23.00 and an annual increase of 5.63% [2]. - The latest price of Raw Coal Port Delivery Price is 1060.00, with a daily decrease of 10.00, a weekly increase of 26.00, and an annual increase of 16.48% [2]. - The latest price of Shaheyi Meng 5 is 1340.00, with a monthly decrease of 20.00 and an annual decrease of 0.74% [2]. - The latest price of Anze Main Coking Coal is 1620.00, with a weekly and monthly increase of 120.00 and an annual increase of 15.71% [2]. - **International Coking Coal Prices**: - The latest price of Peak Downs is 239.00, with a daily increase of 2.00, a weekly increase of 9.50, a monthly increase of 14.50, and an annual increase of 39.50 [2]. - The latest price of Goonyella is 240.00, with a daily increase of 2.00, a weekly increase of 9.50, a monthly increase of 15.00, and an annual increase of 36.50 [2]. - **Futures Prices**: - The latest price of Futures Contract 05 is 1188.50, with a daily decrease of 11.00, a weekly increase of 0.50, a monthly increase of 130.00, and an annual increase of 6.02% [2]. - The latest price of Futures Contract 09 is 1266.00, with a daily decrease of 11.50, a weekly increase of 6.00, a monthly increase of 129.50, and an annual increase of 5.90% [2]. - The latest price of Futures Contract 01 is 1073.00, with a daily decrease of 5.50, a weekly decrease of 70.50, a monthly increase of 109.00, and an annual increase of 5.40% [2]. Group 3: Inventory Information - The total inventory is 4087.59, with a weekly increase of 35.02, a monthly increase of 153.49, and an annual decrease of 16.71% [2]. - The coal mine inventory is 272.37, with a weekly decrease of 22.64, a monthly decrease of 0.40, and an annual decrease of 33.78% [2]. - The port inventory is 299.80, with a weekly decrease of 1.50, a monthly decrease of 7.70, and an annual decrease of 36.89% [2]. - The steel mill coking coal inventory is 797.73, with a weekly decrease of 4.54, a monthly increase of 3.08, and an annual decrease of 2.04% [2]. - The coking coking coal inventory is 1071.68, with a weekly increase of 19.18, a monthly increase of 34.38, and an annual decrease of 0.17% [2]. - The coking coke inventory is 85.38, with a weekly decrease of 0.29, a monthly decrease of 0.35, and an annual decrease of 0.64% [2]. Group 4: Other Information - The coking capacity utilization rate is 72.55, with a weekly decrease of 0.14, a monthly increase of 0.50, and an annual decrease of 1.17% [2]. - The 05 basis is -54.25, with a daily decrease of 6.24, a weekly increase of 38.58, a monthly increase of 1.03, and an annual decrease of 16.93% [2]. - The 09 basis is -131.75, with a daily decrease of 5.74, a weekly increase of 33.08, a monthly increase of 1.53, and an annual increase of 0.18% [2]. - The 01 basis is 61.25, with a daily decrease of 11.74, a weekly increase of 109.58, a monthly increase of 22.03, and an annual decrease of 0.07% [2]. - The 5 - 9 spread is -77.50, with a weekly decrease of 5.50, a monthly increase of 0.50, and an annual increase of 0.04% [2]. - The 9 - 1 spread is 193.00, with a daily decrease of 6.00, a weekly increase of 76.50, a monthly increase of 20.50, and an annual increase of 0.09% [2]. - The 1 - 5 spread is -115.50, with a daily increase of 5.50, a weekly decrease of 71.00, a monthly decrease of 21.00, and an annual increase of 0.12% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View No information provided. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Profit - The report provides the spot prices of various steel products in different regions from January 9th to January 15th, 2026, including Beijing, Shanghai, and other cities' prices of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and cold - rolled coils. For example, the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coils changed from 3270 on January 9th to 3290 on January 15th, with a change of 40 [1]. Production and Inventory No information provided. Basis and Spread No information provided.

Group 1: Copper - The copper price has significantly increased recently, driven by the expected potential refined copper tariff in the US, which causes a phased inventory transfer to the US, and the inflow of investment funds. The market remains optimistic about copper due to low inventories in non - US regions and continuous restocking in the US. In the future, the copper price will depend on the terminal demand's ability to accept high prices, the continuation of US restocking, and the recovery of Chinese demand. It is expected to accumulate inventory steeply before the Spring Festival and de - stock quickly after the Spring Festival [1]. Group 2: Aluminum - The expected trading dominates the changes in the futures and spot prices, with amplified price fluctuations. The import of primary aluminum decreased significantly in November, while the export of primary aluminum, aluminum products, and related items increased. The actual domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously expected. The automobile sales are poor and are expected to decline further after the subsidy withdrawal in 2026, but the PV installation volume has rebounded better than expected, boosting short - term demand. The inventory of aluminum ingots and products has accumulated, the apparent demand has decreased, and the basis has rebounded but remains at a low level. The strong expectation supports the current high price [1][2]. Group 3: Zinc - On the supply side, domestic and imported TC are accelerating their decline. Domestic zinc ore will be in short supply from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. In November, the Huoshaoyun zinc ingot was officially put into production, and other smelters have limited increments. In December, many smelters had maintenance, and it is expected that they will resume production in mid - January. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas, European demand is average while US zinc ingot imports have increased recently. For strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities for the monthly spread [5]. Group 4: Nickel - On the supply side, the production of pure nickel has slightly declined. On the demand side, it is generally weak, but the premium of Jinchuan nickel is relatively strong. In terms of inventory, the domestic inventory accumulation has slowed down, and about 30,000 tons were delivered to LME warehouses this week, mainly in Asian warehouses. In the short term, the fundamental situation is weak. The Indonesian energy and mining minister did not disclose the nickel production quota for 2026 but said it would be adjusted according to industry demand, so the short - term policy and fundamentals will continue to compete [6][7]. Group 5: Stainless Steel - On the supply side, steel mill production schedules remain at a high level. On the demand side, it is mainly for rigid needs. In terms of cost, the price of nickel iron has slightly stabilized, and the price of chromium iron has remained unchanged. In terms of inventory, the high - level inventory has slightly decreased, and the warehouse receipts have remained the same. The fundamentals are generally weak, and the news of the Indonesian quota is the main driver of recent prices, following the nickel price in the short term [10]. Group 6: Lead - This week, the lead price has fluctuated at a high level following the macro trend. On the supply side, primary production is driven by profits, with an expected production recovery of 1 - 1.5 tons in January. The concentrate production has decreased seasonally, and the concentrate has become tight with no hope of a TC rebound. The recycling plants have resumed production after the environmental inspection at the beginning of the month, and recyclers are starting to hold up prices. On the demand side, the battery production rate is high this week, but the monthly battery finished - product inventory has accumulated, and demand is expected to weaken. The lead ingot market has been tight since the end of September, and although the supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated by the recovery of recycling production, it is difficult to accumulate inventory due to the high - rate production of battery factories. The downstream's low - price restocking provides support. The refined - scrap price difference has returned to - 150. The new national standard has suppressed the consumption of two - wheeled vehicle batteries, and the year - end inventory counting has led to a dull trading environment. It is expected that the domestic and foreign lead prices will remain volatile next week, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [11]. Group 7: Tin - This week, the tin price has increased. On the supply side, domestic tin production has remained the same. Overseas, production in Wa State may be affected in the first quarter due to equipment problems in local mines, and the export quota issue in Indonesia is still under negotiation. The war in the DRC and Rwanda has not affected local mining production, but border risks still exist. On the demand side, downstream restocking willingness is strong due to rigid orders and the expectation of pre - installation before the cancellation of PV tax rebates, leading to a significant decline in domestic inventory, while overseas LME inventory has fluctuated. In the short term, there are supply risks in major global suppliers, and it is difficult to accumulate large - scale inventory under the expectation of domestic export rush. Before the macro sentiment weakens, the upward driving force is stronger. The risk of going long on the fundamental side lies in whether the overseas LME inventory will accumulate on a large scale. In the long term, demand determines the upper price limit. Tin can be a multi - allocation in non - ferrous metals in the first quarter, but if the macro situation falls short of expectations, the price may decline significantly in the second half of the year [11][12]. Group 8: Industrial Silicon - This week, some factories in Shaanxi and Xinjiang have increased production, while some in Xinjiang Yili and Qinghai have decreased production again. As large factories are gradually entering the maintenance period, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are approaching balance. In the short term, the supply - demand balance is expected to keep the price fluctuating with the cost. In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and the low operating rate is expected to keep the price oscillating at the bottom of the cycle, anchored by the seasonal marginal cost [15]. Group 9: Lithium Carbonate - Recently, potential disturbances in domestic and foreign resource - ends, the increase in iron - lithium processing fees, and the macro sentiment have jointly driven up the lithium price. On the raw material side, the available supply is still tight, and the price is relatively firm. The auction of Albemarle's concentrate has further boosted market sentiment. On the lithium salt side, the sales strategy of upstream lithium salt factories is changing, with a decrease in the proportion of long - term contracts and an increase in the proportion and willingness to sell spot orders. Downstream, material factories are cautious about high prices and tend to replenish inventory rigidly after the price drops to a relatively low level. In the second half of the week, the trading volume of orders below 140,000 has slightly increased. Currently, some mid - stream inventories have become visible, with the quotes of first - tier spodumene - based electric carbon at - 1500~ - 1000 and second - and third - tier at - 1800~ - 1500 [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report No information provided. 3. Summary According to Relevant Content - **SP Main Contract Information**: On January 15, 2026, the closing price of the SP main contract was 5436.00, the converted US dollar price was 681.32, with a daily decline of -1.05570%. The basis of Shandong Yinxing was 79, and that of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai Yinxing was 74 [3]. - **Import Profit Information**: Calculated with 13% VAT, the import profit of Canadian Golden Lion was 86.64, while that of Canadian Lion was -294.55, and that of Chilean Silver Star was -68.27 [4]. - **Price and Profit Margin Information**: From January 9 - 15, 2026, the national average prices of coniferous pulp, broad - leaf pulp, natural pulp, and chemical mechanical pulp remained unchanged, as did the average prices in Shandong. The prices of cultural paper, packaging paper, and living paper also remained stable. However, the profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white cardboard, and living paper all showed slight increases [4]. - **Price Difference Information**: On January 15, 2026, the price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp was 785.00, between coniferous and natural pulp was 115, between coniferous and chemical mechanical pulp was 1640, and between coniferous pulp and waste paper was 3939 [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views - Methanol: The inland prices have bottomed out, and the port is trading on the expectation of significant inventory reduction. However, the high MTO operation rate is a prerequisite for significant inventory reduction. Currently, MTO profits are average, which restricts the upside potential of methanol. Venezuelan shipments are expected to be 2 - 3 vessels per month, with an average of 80,000 - 100,000 tons per month. Attention should be paid to subsequent developments. In the short term, shipments may remain normal. Additionally, the change in oil prices should be monitored. The limited upside of methanol is due to the poor performance of other downstream sectors. If oil prices drive up other products, it may lift the price ceiling [2]. - Plastic (PE): The futures market is oscillating, while spot prices are stable, and the basis is weak. The L01 basis in North China is -180, a decrease of 40 compared to the previous period; in East China, it is -100, a decrease of 30. The regional price difference in North China is oscillating. The difference between North and East China is -80, a decrease of 30; the difference between South and East China is 50, an increase of 50. Crude oil prices are oscillating, and both oil - based and coal - based profits are deteriorating. The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 745, and the theoretical LL import profit is 63. The HD - LLD price difference is 110, a decrease of 40; the LD - LL price difference is 2210, an increase of 210. Upstream coal chemical industries are reducing inventory, and Sinopec and PetroChina are also reducing inventory. Social inventories have increased this week. HD inventory is at a low level, LD inventory has increased, and LL inventory is slightly higher than the historical average. From the supply side, the growth rate of standard product supply is high. The linear production schedule has increased compared to the previous period. There are few maintenance plans in January, and the full - density production has recovered. Looking ahead, as supply returns, the overall PE supply growth rate for the 05 contract is expected to be moderate, and the LL supply - demand balance sheet is still under significant pressure [3]. - Polypropylene (PP): The futures market is stable, and the basis is weak. The basis in East China is -200, a decrease of 80 compared to the previous period. The import profit is -334, and the export profit is -225. The export volume has decreased slightly compared to the previous period. In terms of domestic regional price differences, the difference between North and East China is -70, an increase of 35; the difference between South and East China is 100, a decrease of 30. In terms of upstream profits, oil - based profits are stable. The comprehensive PDH profit is -970, an increase of 230. The PDH operation rate has remained stable this week. The profits of downstream BOPP and plastic weaving industries have improved. The number of temporary maintenance plans on the supply side has increased, and the supply in January is expected to be flat compared to the previous month. Downstream enterprises have slightly replenished their inventories at low prices during the holiday season. Sinopec and PetroChina are reducing inventory, while coal chemical industries are increasing inventory, and social inventories are also increasing. Currently, the overall PP inventory is at a moderate level. According to the balance sheet, the supply pressure for the 05 contract and subsequent periods is slightly higher than normal. PDH maintenance or continuous exports are needed to improve the situation [5]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): The V basis is -330, an increase of 10 compared to the previous period. This week's trading volume is average. The FOB price for ethylene - based PVC is 575, and for calcium carbide - based PVC is 570. The sustainability needs further observation. The coal price is 600, unchanged from the previous period; the semi - coke price is 820, also unchanged. The semi - coke profit is poor, and the calcium carbide profit is also low. The ex - factory price of Shandong spot is 4560, and the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry using purchased calcium carbide is around -600. The prices of ethylene and calcium carbide are stable. Upstream industries have remained stable this week, with an operation rate of 79.7%, an increase of 1.1%. This week, the operation rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.7%, an increase of 1.3%; the operation rate of ethylene - based PVC is 79.6%, an increase of 0.3%. Downstream demand is stable. The upstream factory inventory is 309,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons; the PVC social inventory is 1.114 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons. The inventory in East China is 1.06 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons; the inventory in South China is 54,000 tons, unchanged. The overall inventory level is still moderately high, and exports are flat compared to the previous period. Currently, the comprehensive profit of PVC is low. In the short term, the operation rate has recovered seasonally. Attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment. Overall, exports this year are relatively high. The sustainability of subsequent exports needs to be observed. In the long term, the new construction demand in the domestic and international real estate markets remains weak. In the medium - to - long - term, the outlook for PVC remains poor [7]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - Price Data: The power coal futures price is 801. The Jiangsu spot price is around 2250 - 2270, the South China spot price is around 2235 - 2260, the Lunan converted price is 2340 - 2345, the Southwest converted price is 2315, the Hebei converted price is 2340 - 2345, the Northwest converted price is 2430 - 2438, the CFR China price is 267, and the CFR Southeast Asia price is 322. The import profit is -12 to -24, and the main contract basis is -10 to -27 [2]. - Market Analysis: The inland prices have bottomed out, and the port is trading on the expectation of significant inventory reduction. However, the high MTO operation rate is a prerequisite for significant inventory reduction. Currently, MTO profits are average, which restricts the upside potential of methanol. Venezuelan shipments are expected to be 2 - 3 vessels per month, with an average of 80,000 - 100,000 tons per month. Attention should be paid to subsequent developments. In the short term, shipments may remain normal. Additionally, the change in oil prices should be monitored [2]. Plastic (PE) - Price Data: The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 725 - 745. The North China LL price is 6500 - 6740, the East China LL price is 6700 - 6900, the East China LD price is 8950 - 9225, the East China HD price is 7000 - 7500, the LL US dollar price is 765, the LL US Gulf price is 808 - 819, the import profit is 156 - 281, the main contract futures price is 6674 - 6820, the basis is -130 to -160, the two - oil inventory is 57 - 11365, and the warehouse receipt is 10894 - 11998 [3]. - Market Analysis: The futures market is oscillating, while spot prices are stable, and the basis is weak. Crude oil prices are oscillating, and both oil - based and coal - based profits are deteriorating. Upstream coal chemical industries are reducing inventory, and Sinopec and PetroChina are also reducing inventory. Social inventories have increased this week. HD inventory is at a low level, LD inventory has increased, and LL inventory is slightly higher than the historical average. The supply of standard products is growing rapidly. The linear production schedule has increased, and there are few maintenance plans in January. The full - density production has recovered. The overall PE supply growth rate for the 05 contract is expected to be moderate, and the LL supply - demand balance sheet is still under significant pressure [3]. Polypropylene (PP) - Price Data: The Shandong propylene price is 5820 - 6050, the Northeast Asian propylene price is 720 - 740, the East China PP price is 6310 - 6415, the North China PP price is 6293 - 6563, the Shandong powder price is 6300 - 6470, the East China copolymer price is 6568 - 6800, the PP US dollar price is 775 - 785, the PP US Gulf price is 830, the export profit is -33 to -47, the main contract futures price is 6514 - 6592, the basis is -180 to -200, the two - oil inventory is 57 - 17575, and the warehouse receipt is 15445 - 17508 [5]. - Market Analysis: The futures market is stable, and the basis is weak. The import profit is -334, and the export profit is -225. The export volume has decreased slightly. In terms of domestic regional price differences, the difference between North and East China is -70, an increase of 35; the difference between South and East China is 100, a decrease of 30. Upstream oil - based profits are stable. The comprehensive PDH profit is -970, an increase of 230. The PDH operation rate has remained stable this week. The profits of downstream BOPP and plastic weaving industries have improved. The number of temporary maintenance plans on the supply side has increased, and the supply in January is expected to be flat compared to the previous month. Downstream enterprises have slightly replenished their inventories at low prices during the holiday season. Sinopec and PetroChina are reducing inventory, while coal chemical industries are increasing inventory, and social inventories are also increasing. Currently, the overall PP inventory is at a moderate level. According to the balance sheet, the supply pressure for the 05 contract and subsequent periods is slightly higher than normal. PDH maintenance or continuous exports are needed to improve the situation [5]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - Price Data: The Northwest calcium carbide price is 2400, the Shandong caustic soda price is 695 - 712, the calcium carbide - based East China price is 4640 - 4710, the ethylene - based East China price is not provided, the calcium carbide - based South China price is not provided, the calcium carbide - based North price is 4300 - 4350, the import US dollar price (CFR China) is 650 - 660, the export profit is 65 - 82, the Northwest comprehensive profit is not provided, the North China comprehensive profit is not provided, and the basis (high - end delivery product) is -250 to -330 [6][7]. - Market Analysis: The V basis is -330, an increase of 10 compared to the previous period. This week's trading volume is average. The FOB price for ethylene - based PVC is 575, and for calcium carbide - based PVC is 570. The sustainability needs further observation. The coal price is 600, unchanged from the previous period; the semi - coke price is 820, also unchanged. The semi - coke profit is poor, and the calcium carbide profit is also low. The ex - factory price of Shandong spot is 4560, and the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry using purchased calcium carbide is around -600. The prices of ethylene and calcium carbide are stable. Upstream industries have remained stable this week, with an operation rate of 79.7%, an increase of 1.1%. This week, the operation rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.7%, an increase of 1.3%; the operation rate of ethylene - based PVC is 79.6%, an increase of 0.3%. Downstream demand is stable. The upstream factory inventory is 309,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons; the PVC social inventory is 1.114 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons. The inventory in East China is 1.06 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons; the inventory in South China is 54,000 tons, unchanged. The overall inventory level is still moderately high, and exports are flat compared to the previous period. Currently, the comprehensive profit of PVC is low. In the short term, the operation rate has recovered seasonally. Attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment. Overall, exports this year are relatively high. The sustainability of subsequent exports needs to be observed. In the long term, the new construction demand in the domestic and international real estate markets remains weak. In the medium - to - long - term, the outlook for PVC remains poor [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints - The U.S. soybean and soybean meal export sales and shipment data in the week ending January 8 showed significant changes, with soybean export sales and shipments increasing compared to the previous week and four - week average, while soybean meal export shipments decreased [1]. - The U.S. December 2025 soybean crushing volume reached the second - highest in history, and the soybean oil inventory expanded to a 19 - month high [1]. - Different institutions have different forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production, with CONAB slightly lowering the forecast, while Agroconsult and RaboResearch predicting an increase [1]. - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel quota in early March, and there are considerations regarding the bio - based diesel quota [1]. - Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in February, reducing the export tariff, and the palm oil export volume from January 1 - 15, 2026 increased compared to the previous month [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content U.S. Soybean and Soybean Meal Export Data - In the week ending January 8, U.S. current - market - year soybean export sales net increased by 206.19 million tons, up 135% from the previous week and 54% from the four - week average, with an export shipment of 163.74 million tons, up 47% from the previous week and 71% from the four - week average. New sales were 213.39 million tons for the current market year and 1 million tons for the next market year. Sales to the Chinese mainland net increased by 122.41 million tons, and shipments to the Chinese mainland were 90.11 million tons [1]. - In the week ending January 8, U.S. current - market - year soybean meal export sales net increased by 34.06 million tons, up 115% from the previous week and 15% from the four - week average. Export shipments were 30.52 million tons, down 39% from the previous week and 18% from the four - week average. New sales were 35.92 million tons for the current market year and 0 tons for the next market year [1]. U.S. Soybean Crushing and Inventory Data - In December 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing volume was 224.991 million bushels, up 4.1% from November and 8.9% from December 2024, slightly lower than the record high in October. The total soybean crushing volume in 2025 was nearly 2.4 billion bushels [1]. - As of December 31, 2025, the U.S. soybean oil inventory increased to 1.642 billion pounds, up 8.5% from the end of November and 32.8% from December 2024 [1]. Brazil's Soybean Production Forecast - CONAB lowered the forecast of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to 176.12 million tons, slightly lower than the December forecast, with a slightly decreased yield per hectare and a slightly lower export volume forecast [1]. - Agroconsult predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would reach a record 182.2 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons from the November estimate and 10.1 million tons from the previous year [1]. - RaboResearch predicted that Brazil's 2025 - 26 soybean planting area would increase by 2%, and if the current yield trend continued, the production could reach a new record of 177 million tons. The export volume was expected to remain at the 2025 record level of 111 million tons, and the crushing volume was expected to increase by 2 million tons to 60 million tons [1]. Biofuel Policy - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March, keep the quota at a similar level to the current proposal, and is considering a bio - based diesel quota between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons, and may abandon the plan to penalize renewable fuel and its raw material imports [1]. Malaysia's Palm Oil Data - Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in February, reducing the export tariff to 9%. The reference price was 3,846.84 Malaysian ringgit per ton (equivalent to 950 US dollars) [1]. - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil product export volume from January 1 - 15, 2026 was 690,642 tons, up 17.5% from the same period last month, while ITS reported an export volume of 727,440 tons, up 18.6% from the same period last month [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from January 9 - 15, 2026 showed certain fluctuations [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For the 02 contract, it is gradually following the delivery logic, and its subsequent performance will be affected by the spot market. With a neutral valuation currently, it is not recommended to enter the market. [3] - For the 04 contract, attention should be paid to the spot market and actual rush - shipping situations. The expected decline in Week 5 when MSK opens bookings may suppress the futures market, but as freight rates fall, the scale of rush - shipping may increase, potentially weakening the downward slope in March. Its valuation fluctuates within a reasonable range, and it is advisable to watch for possible corrective market trends. [3] - The adjustment of export tax rebates is negative for far - month contracts. However, far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Overall, it is still recommended to focus on shorting the 10 - contract on rallies. [3] Summary by Related Content Market Data of Contracts - EC2602 closed at 1719.0 with a 0.06% increase, trading volume of 2673, and an open interest of 8878 with a decrease of 1583. [2] - EC2604 closed at 1202.7 with a 2.26% decrease, trading volume of 40524, and an open interest of 40832 with an increase of 788. [2] - EC2606 closed at 1421.8 with a 0.16% decrease, trading volume of 2189, and an open interest of 3048 with a decrease of 82. [2] - EC2608 closed at 1524.9 with a 0.50% decrease, trading volume of 153, and an open interest of 1321 with an increase of 15. [2] - EC2610 closed at 1111.0 with a 0.63% decrease, trading volume of 1331, and an open interest of 7581 with a decrease of 44. [2] - The spread of EC2502 - 2604 was 516.3, with a day - on - day increase of 28.8 and a week - on - week decrease of 69.0. [2] - The spread of EC2504 - 2606 was - 219.1, with a day - on - day decrease of 25.5 and a week - on - week increase of 62.2. [2] Index Data - The SCFIS (European Line) index on January 12, 2026, was 1956.39 points, with an 8.94% increase from the previous period and a 3.05% increase in the previous period. [2] - The SCFI (European Line) index on January 9, 2026, was 1719 dollars/TEU, with a 1.72% increase from the previous available data. [2] News and Market Conditions - On January 15, Hamas officials stated they were ready to transfer the administrative power of the Gaza Strip to a technical - bureaucrat committee. [4] - On January 15, Maersk announced the resumption of the Suez Canal route for its MECL service due to improved stability in the Red Sea. [4] Shipping Company Quotations - In Week 3, MSK's booking price was 2600 dollars, other alliances had small declines, with a central price of 2750 dollars, equivalent to about 1930 points on the futures market. [7] - In Week 4, MSK's booking price was 2700 dollars, other alliances remained stable, with a central price of 2750 dollars, equivalent to about 1930 points on the futures market. [7] - In Week 5, MSK's booking price was 2400 dollars (a 300 - dollar decrease from the previous week), PA was 2200 dollars, MSC was 2600 dollars, OA was 2700 dollars. The overall central price was 2500 - 2600 dollars, equivalent to 1750 - 1820 points on the futures market. [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - No relevant information provided 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - Newman powder price is 810, down 8 daily and 3 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 867.2, and an import profit of 16.20 [1] - PB powder price is 820, down 7 daily and 1 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 874.2 [1] - Macfarlane powder price is 813, down 7 daily and 10 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 887.9, and an import profit of 43.45 [1] - Jinbuba powder price is 773, down 7 daily and 1 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 867.8, and an import profit of 54.83 [1] - Mixed powder price is 755, down 2 daily and up 5 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 895.2, and an import profit of 11.15 [1] - Ultra-special powder price is 693, down 9 daily and 7 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 915.0, and an import profit of 3.97 [1] - Carajás powder price is 906, down 3 daily and 7 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 841.8, and an import profit of -5.23 [1] - Brazilian mixed powder price is 851, down 7 daily and 11 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 860.2, and an import profit of 9.87 [1] - Brazilian coarse IOC6 price is 775, down 12 daily and 10 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 850.1 [1] - Brazilian coarse SSFG price is 780, down 12 daily and 10 weekly [1] - Ukrainian concentrate price is 893, down 8 daily and 12 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 994.9 [1] - 61% Indian powder price is 762, down 7 daily and 1 weekly [1] - Karara concentrate price is 897, down 8 daily and 8 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 919.4 [1] - Roy Hill powder price is 807, down 7 daily and 1 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 888.2, and an import profit of 65.64 [1] - KUMBA powder price is 879, down 7 daily and 1 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 859.3 [1] - 57% Indian powder price is 628, down 9 daily and 7 weekly [1] - Atlas powder price is 750, down 2 daily and up 5 weekly [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate price is 977, down 5 daily and 5 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 864.0 [1] 3.2 Futures Market - i2601 contract price is 832.5, unchanged daily and down 25.5 weekly, with an inter - monthly price difference of -38.5, and a change of 9.3 daily, -3.2 weekly, and 17.9 monthly [1] - i2605 contract price is 813.0, down 8 daily and unchanged weekly, with an inter - monthly price difference of 19.5, and a change of 28.8 daily, 4.8 weekly, and -7.6 monthly [1] - i2609 contract price is 794.0, down 5 daily and up 2 weekly, with an inter - monthly price difference of 19.0, and a change of 47.8 daily, 1.8 weekly, and -9.6 monthly [1] - FE01 contract price is 108.00, down 0.19 daily and 0.85 weekly, with an inter - monthly price difference of -2.17, and a change of -19.1 daily, 3.6 weekly, and 2.1 monthly [1] - FE05 contract price is 107.49, up 0.08 daily and down 0.46 weekly, with an inter - monthly price difference of 0.51, and a change of -26.6 daily, 0.5 weekly, and -1.5 monthly [1] - FE09 contract price is 105.83, up 0.19 daily and down 0.18 weekly, with an inter - monthly price difference of 1.66, and a change of -35.5 daily, -0.9 weekly, and -2.2 monthly [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No relevant content provided 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Cross-Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 16, 2026, the domestic spot price was 102,350, LME spot price 13,127 with a ratio of 7.87; domestic March price 102,810, LME March price 13,090 with a ratio of 7.88. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.91 with a loss of 1,800.78, and a profit of 209.21 for spot export [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 25,400, LME spot price 3,276 with a ratio of 7.75; domestic March price 25,090, LME March price 3,304 with a ratio of 5.33. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.31 with a loss of 1,836.01 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 24,200, LME spot price 3,162 with a ratio of 7.65; domestic March price 24,375, LME March price 3,161 with a ratio of 7.73. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.32 with a loss of 2,111.19 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 146,300, LME spot price 18,237 with a ratio of 8.02. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.00 with a loss of 492.25 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17,400, LME spot price 2,039 with a ratio of 8.50; domestic March price 17,550, LME March price 2,083 with a ratio of 12.21. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.52 with a loss of 42.48 [3] 3.2 Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 were - 890, - 640, - 510, - 400 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 619, 1137, 1663, 2189 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 645, 690, 745, 735 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 225, 356, 487, 618 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 165, - 110, - 70, - 15 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 233, 368, 502, 637 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 160, 230, 275, 310 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 319, 427, 534 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 were 4950, 5220, 5520, 5830 [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 8690 with a theoretical spread of 8666 [4] 3.3 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 were 950 and 60 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 797 and 1231 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 were - 1000 and - 355 respectively. Theoretical spreads were 256 and 375 [5] - **Lead**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 were - 80 and 80 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 176 and 292 [5] 3.4 Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On January 16, 2026, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) were 4.10, 4.22, 5.86, 0.97, 1.39, 0.70 respectively, and in London (three - continuous) were 3.95, 4.14, 6.24, 0.96, 1.51, 0.63 respectively [5]