Group 1 - Investment Rating: Not provided Group 2 - Core View: Not provided Group 3 Spot Market - Newman powder price is 818, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 16, and the import profit is 15.26 [1] - PB powder price is 826, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 16 [1] - Macarthur powder price is 828, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 16, and the import profit is 49.79 [1] - Jinbuba powder price is 779, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 16, and the import profit is 50.63 [1] - Mixed powder price is 757, with a daily change of -8 and a weekly change of 10, and the import profit is 4.11 [1] - Super Special powder price is 703, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 15, and the import profit is 5.78 [1] - Carajás powder price is 908, with a daily change of -12 and a weekly change of 7, and the import profit is -14.76 [1] - Brazilian blended powder price is 863, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 12, and the import profit is 13.27 [1] - Brazilian coarse IOC6 price is 790, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 16 [1] - Brazilian coarse SSFG price is 795, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 16 [1] - Ukrainian iron concentrate price is 909, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 20 [1] - 61% Indian powder price is 768, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 16 [1] - Karara iron concentrate price is 909, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 19 [1] - Roy Hill powder price is 813, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 16, and the import profit is 61.98 [1] - KUMBA powder price is 885, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 16 [1] - 57% Indian powder price is 638, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 15 [1] - Atlas powder price is 752, with a daily change of -8 and a weekly change of 10 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate price is 982, with no daily change and a weekly change of 6 [1] Futures Market - i2601 contract price is 830.0, with a daily change of -34.0 and a weekly change of 4.0, and the monthly spread is -32.0 [1] - i2605 contract price is 819.5, with a daily change of -3.0 and a weekly change of 18.5, and the monthly spread is 10.5 [1] - i2609 contract price is 798.0, with a daily change of -4.0 and a weekly change of 18.0, and the monthly spread is 21.5 [1] - FE01 contract price is 108.89, with a daily change of 0.55 and a weekly change of 2.92, and the monthly spread is -2.49 [1] - FE05 contract price is 108.24, with a daily change of 1.10 and a weekly change of 3.51, and the monthly spread is 0.65 [1] - FE09 contract price is 106.40, with a daily change of 1.21 and a weekly change of 3.60, and the monthly spread is 1.84 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and lead on January 14, 2026 [1][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 14, 2026, the domestic spot price was 102,680, the LME spot price was 13,158, and the spot price ratio was 7.85; the domestic three - month price was 102,480, the LME three - month price was 13,068, and the three - month price ratio was 7.85. The equilibrium price ratio for spot imports was 7.92 [1] - **Zinc**: On January 14, 2026, the domestic spot price was 24,330, the LME spot price was not provided; the domestic three - month price was 24,280, the LME three - month price was 3,204, and the three - month price ratio was 5.41 [1] - **Aluminum**: On January 14, 2026, the domestic spot price was 24,300, the LME spot price was not provided; the domestic three - month price was 24,375, the LME three - month price was 3,165, and the three - month price ratio was 7.74 [1] - **Nickel**: On January 14, 2026, the domestic spot price was 139,850, the LME spot price was not provided. The profit for spot imports was 1,072.78 [1] - **Lead**: On January 14, 2026, the domestic spot price was 17,200, the LME spot price was 2,010, and the spot price ratio was 8.54; the domestic three - month price was 17,360, the LME three - month price was 2,054, and the three - month price ratio was 11.81. The profit for spot imports was 18.63, and the equilibrium price ratio for spot imports was 8.53 [3] Cross - period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 14, 2026, the spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were - 1140, - 950, - 800, and - 720 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 619, 1136, 1662, and 2189 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: On January 14, 2026, the spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were 105, 150, 185, and 200 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 224, 353, 483, and 613 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: On January 14, 2026, the spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were - 260, - 190, - 145, and - 100 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 234, 369, 503, and 638 respectively [4] - **Lead**: On January 14, 2026, the spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were - 95, - 45, 0, and 25 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 212, 320, 428, and 536 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: On January 14, 2026, the spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were - 3350, - 3160, - 2820, and - 2530 respectively [4] - **Tin**: On January 14, 2026, the spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts was - 2000, and the theoretical spread was 7802 [4] Spot - futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 14, 2026, the spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 965 and - 175 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 219 and 619 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: On January 14, 2026, the spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 200 and - 95 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 61 and 202 (also mentioned as 119 and 225) respectively [4][5] - **Lead**: On January 14, 2026, the spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 205 and 110 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 110 and 224 respectively [5] Cross - variety Arbitrage Tracking - On January 14, 2026, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for the Shanghai (triple - continuous) contracts were 4.22, 4.20, 5.90, 1.00, 1.40, and 0.71 respectively; the ratios for the London (triple - continuous) contracts of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, and copper/lead were 4.11, 4.12, and 6.39 respectively [5]

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2026/01/14 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/01/07 | 2163 | 2254 | 2036 | 2233 | 2213 | 2096 | | 2026/01/08 | 2170 | 2260 | 2041 | 2242 | 2214 | 2098 | | 2026/01/09 | 2170 | 2259 | 2043 | 2241 | 2214 | 2102 | | 2026/01/12 | 2171 | 2260 | 2043 | 2243 | 2214 | 2105 | | 2026/01/13 | 2182 | 2262 | 2045 | 2248 | 2214 | 2105 | | 环比 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结 ...

Group 1: Implicit Volatility Index and Historical Volatility - The financial option implicit volatility index reflects the 30 - day implicit volatility trend as of the previous trading day. The commodity option implicit volatility index is obtained by weighting the implicit volatilities of the two - level options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract month, reflecting the implicit volatility change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implicit volatility index and historical volatility: a larger difference indicates that the implicit volatility is relatively higher than the historical volatility, while a smaller difference means the opposite [3] Group 2: Implicit Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile - The implicit volatility quantile represents the current level of the variety's implicit volatility in history. A high quantile means the current implicit volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low [5] - The volatility spread is related to the implicit volatility index and historical volatility [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil rebounded, and geopolitical risks escalated. The unstable situation in Iran continued over the weekend. Trump received a briefing on the military strike plan against Iran but has not made a final decision on whether to authorize the strike. If the US launches a strike against Iran, oil prices may surge due to geopolitical risks. Fundamentally, oil inventories increased this week, the Dubai monthly spread strengthened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking strengthened while diesel cracking fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, and the price center in the first quarter is expected to be high and volatile [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - The US State Department issued an emergency security warning, asking US citizens in Iran to leave immediately and make departure plans without relying on US government assistance [3]. - Trump said that Iran called to negotiate on the nuclear issue yesterday, and the US may meet with them. He also announced that starting from now, any country doing business with Iran will be subject to a 25% tariff on all its commercial activities with the US [4]. - The White House stated that diplomacy is the "preferred" option for the US to deal with the Iranian situation, but Trump will not hesitate to use the US military if necessary [4]. 2. Inventory - In the week ending January 2nd, US crude oil exports increased by 823,000 barrels per day to 4.263 million barrels per day [4]. - In the same week, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 16,000 barrels to 13.811 million barrels per day [4]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.832 million barrels to 419 million barrels, a decrease of 0.91% [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 19.871 million barrels per day, a decrease of 1.86% compared to the same period last year [5]. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 245,000 barrels to 413.5 million barrels, an increase of 0.06% [5]. - In the week ending January 2nd, US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.339 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.386 million barrels per day compared to the previous week [5]. 3. Weekly Quotes | Date | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1 - 2 month spread | WTI - BRENT | DUBAI - BRENT (EFS) | NYMEX RB | RBOB - BRENT | NYMEX HO | HO - BRENT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/01/06 | 57.13 | 60.70 | 59.16 | 0.74 | 0.39 | - 3.57 | 1.31 | 170.06 | 10.73 | 208.30 | 26.79 | | 2026/01/07 | 55.99 | 59.96 | 58.35 | 0.84 | 0.38 | - 3.97 | 1.41 | 169.45 | 11.21 | 205.67 | 26.42 | | 2026/01/08 | 57.76 | 61.99 | 60.08 | 0.89 | 0.50 | - 4.23 | 1.30 | 176.03 | 11.94 | 211.95 | 27.03 | | 2026/01/09 | 59.12 | 63.34 | 61.02 | 0.89 | 0.55 | - 4.22 | 1.38 | 178.06 | 11.45 | 213.50 | 26.33 | | 2026/01/12 | 59.50 | 63.87 | 61.17 | - | 0.65 | - 4.37 | 1.94 | 179.38 | 11.47 | 215.44 | 26.61 | | Change | 0.38 | 0.53 | 0.15 | - | 0.10 | - 0.15 | 0.56 | 1.32 | 0.02 | 1.94 | 0.28 | | Date | SC | OMAN | SC - BRENT | SC - WTI | Domestic Gasoline | Domestic Gasoline - BRENT | Domestic Diesel | Domestic Diesel - BRENT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/01/06 | | 428.20 | 58.86 | 0.32 | 3.89 | 7090 | 3542 | 5743 | 2612 | | 2026/01/07 | | 416.30 | 57.98 | - 0.65 | 3.32 | 7050 | 3544 | 5711 | 2618 | | 2026/01/08 | | 416.20 | 59.98 | - 2.70 | 1.53 | 7010 | 3385 | 5673 | 2475 | | 2026/01/09 | | 432.70 | 61.37 | - 1.64 | 2.58 | 7040 | 3340 | 5717 | 2452 | | 2026/01/12 | | 437.50 | 61.63 | - 1.47 | 2.90 | 7080 | 3350 | - | - | | Change | | 4.80 | 0.26 | 0.17 | 0.32 | 40.00 | 10.00 | - | - | | Date | Japanese Naphtha CFR | Japanese Naphtha - BRENT | Singapore Fuel Oil 380CST Premium | Singapore 380 - BRENT | SHFE FU Main Contract | SHFE FU - BRENT | SHFE BU Main Contract | SHFE BU - BRENT | HH Natural Gas | BFO | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/01/06 | 534.25 | 88.11 | - 2.0 | - 103.24 | 2479 | - 92.88 | 3144 | 1.89 | - | 61.92 | | 2026/01/07 | 532.75 | 92.04 | - 1.5 | - 98.31 | 2437 | - 93.49 | 3160 | 9.52 | 3.100 | 61.51 | | 2026/01/08 | 540.75 | 85.12 | - 1.9 | - 119.97 | 2458 | - 105.47 | 3132 | - 9.45 | 3.100 | 64.04 | | 2026/01/09 | 551.25 | 85.70 | - 1.43 | - 124.12 | 2514 | - 107.06 | 3171 | - 13.38 | 2.890 | 64.81 | | 2026/01/12 | - | - | - 1.22 | - 130.52 | 2461 | - 118.64 | 3157 | - 19.14 | 2.890 | 64.81 | | Change | - | - | 0.21 | - 6.40 | - 53 | - 11.58 | - 14 | - 5.76 | - 0.210 | 0.77 | [3][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is not recommended to enter the market for EC2602 as its current valuation is neutral and it may be affected by rush shipments [2]. - For EC2604, attention should be paid to the actual inspection and shipment situation. In the short - term, the upward sentiment may be strong, but the actual scale of rush shipments may be limited. It is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of rush shipments and consider shorting opportunities [2]. - Export tax - rebate adjustments are negative for the far - month contracts. Due to significant geopolitical disturbances in the far - month contracts, it is generally recommended to focus on shorting the EC2610 contract on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Data - **Closing Prices and Changes**: EC2602 closed at 1748.0 with a 1.05% increase; EC2604 at 1280.8 with an 11.91% increase; EC2606 at 1485.1 with a 4.16% increase; EC2608 at 1565.2; EC2610 at 1154.0 with a 4.70% increase [2]. - **Open Interest Changes**: The open interest of EC2602 decreased by 4359 to 13344; that of EC2604 increased by 8071 to 37092; EC2606 increased by 431 to 2936; EC2608 increased by 236 to 1451; EC2610 increased by 566 to 7228 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of EC2602 is 208.4; EC2604 is 675.6; EC2606 is 471.3; EC2608 is 391.2; EC2610 is 802.4 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread of EC2502 - 2604 decreased by 118.1 day - on - day and 181.7 week - on - week; the spread of EC2504 - 2606 increased by 77.0 day - on - day and decreased by 11.1 week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Spot Index Data - **SCHIS (European Line)**: Updated weekly on Monday, as of 2026/1/12, it was 1956.39 points, with an 8.94% increase from the previous period and a 3.05% increase in the previous period [2]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated weekly on Friday, as of 2026/1/9, it was 1719 dollars/TEU, with a 1.72% increase from the previous available data [2]. 3.3 European Line Spot Situation - **Week 2**: MSK's price remained flat at 2500 dollars, and the price in Hamburg was 2600 dollars (+100). PA had some price drops, while OA raised prices. The central price was 2860 dollars, equivalent to about 2000 points on the futures market [3]. - **Week 3**: MSK increased the price by 100 dollars when opening the cabin. Other alliances had small price drops. PA was at 2600 dollars (YML's one route was 2400 dollars), and PA's price range was 2800 - 2900 dollars. The central price was 2750 dollars, equivalent to about 1930 points on the futures market [3]. - **Week 4**: MSK increased the price by 100 dollars when opening the cabin, and most other shipping companies had not adjusted prices for the time being [3]. 3.4 Related News - On January 13, it was reported that from January 11 - 12, Maersk's Denver vessel successfully passed through the Mandeb Strait and entered the Red Sea. Maersk will continue to gradually resume east - west shipping through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea [4]. - On January 13, Trump announced that starting from that day, any country doing business with Iran will be subject to a 25% tariff on all its commercial activities with the United States [4].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Before the holiday, the 380 cracking spread fluctuated, and after the holiday, it weakened slightly. The 380 monthly spread rebounded from its low point but remained weak year-on-year. The high-sulfur cracking spread in Europe weakened, and the monthly spread oscillated at a low level. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore oscillated at a historical low, with the structure turning to C at a historical low and the basis oscillating at a historical low [3]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual fuel oil stocks increased significantly, high-sulfur floating storage decreased significantly, ARA's residual fuel oil stocks increased slightly, Fujairah's residual fuel oil stocks decreased, high-sulfur floating storage decreased, and EIA's residual fuel oil stocks increased slightly. The conflict in Venezuela escalated over the weekend, having a short-term positive and long-term negative impact on heavy crude oil. Attention should be paid to the duration of logistics disruptions. The arrival premium for Merey crude in late December remained around -12. The high-sulfur spot market remained loose. Attention should be paid to the boost brought by the premium of heavy raw materials recently. The low-sulfur market maintained a weak oscillation pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From January 6 to January 12, 2026, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by 0.76, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased by 0.63, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.58, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased by 0.35, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 0.98, LGO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.95, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by 1.39 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From January 6 to January 12, 2026, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 1.60, Singapore 180cst M1 decreased by 2.67, Singapore VLSFO M1 increased by 8.50, Singapore Gasoil M1 increased by 1.31, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 decreased by 1.46, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased by 1.19 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From January 6 to January 12, 2026, the FOB price of 380cst decreased by 3.66, the FOB price of VLSFO increased by 3.80, the 380 basis increased by 0.21, the high-sulfur domestic - foreign price difference increased by 0.6, and the low-sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased by 1.5 [2]. Domestic FU Data - From January 6 to January 12, 2026, the price of FU 01 increased by 10, FU 05 decreased by 37, FU 09 decreased by 9, FU 01 - 05 increased by 47, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 28, and FU 09 - 01 decreased by 19 [2]. Domestic LU Data - From January 6 to January 12, 2026, the price of LU 01 increased by 33, LU 05 increased by 1, LU 09 increased by 8, LU 01 - 05 increased by 32, LU 05 - 09 decreased by 7, and LU 09 - 01 decreased by 25 [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Profit - Spot prices of various steel products in different regions from January 6 - 9, 2026 are presented, including prices of Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, etc. for rebar and Tianjin, Shanghai, etc. for hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils. For example, Beijing rebar price was 3120 on January 6 and 3180 on January 7. Also, price changes for some products from January 9 to 12 are given, like the 100 increase in the price of Le Cong hot - rolled coil [1] Output and Inventory - Not provided in the given content Basis and Spread - Not provided in the given content

Report Information - Report Title: Coking Coal Daily Report [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] - Report Date: January 13, 2026 [1] Price Information - The latest price of Liulin Main Coking Coal is 1455.00, with a daily change of 52.00, a weekly change of 52.00, and an annual change of -50.00 [2] - The latest price of Raw Coal Port Delivery Price is 1069.00, with a daily change of 29.00, a weekly change of 109.00, and an annual change of 139.00 [2] - The latest price of Shaheyi Meng 5 is 1340.00, with no daily or weekly change, and an annual change of -60.00 [2] - The latest price of Anze Main Coking Coal is 1500.00, with no daily or weekly change, and no annual change [2] - The latest prices of Peak Downs, Goonyella are 235.00 and 236.00 respectively, with similar daily, weekly, monthly and annual changes [2] - The latest prices of Futures Contract 05, 09, 01 are 1221.50, 1295.50, 1196.50 respectively, all showing positive daily, weekly, monthly and annual changes [2] Inventory Information - The total coking coal inventory is 4052.57, with a weekly decrease of 5.75 and an annual increase of 147.13 [2] - The coal mine inventory is 295.01, with a weekly increase of 1.67 and an annual decrease of 39.70 [2] - The port inventory is 301.30, with a weekly increase of 1.80 and an annual decrease of 4.80 [2] - The steel mill coking coal inventory is 802.27, with a weekly decrease of 4.45 and an annual increase of 4.00 [2] - The coking plant coking coal inventory is 1052.50, with a weekly increase of 12.78 and an annual decrease of 43.30 [2] Other Information - The coking capacity utilization rate is 72.69, with a weekly increase of 0.97 and an annual decrease of 0.47 [2] - The coking plant coke inventory is 85.67, with a weekly increase of 0.09 and an annual decrease of 0.28 [2] - The basis of Futures Contract 05, 09, 01 shows different changes in different time - spans [2] - The spreads between 5 - 9, 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 contracts also show various changes [2]

Price Performance - London Gold latest price is 4612.95, with a change of 119.10 [1] - London Silver latest price is 84.07, with a change of 5.93 [1] - London Platinum latest price is 2282.00, with a change of 65.00 [1] - London Palladium latest price is 1833.00, with a change of 114.00 [1] - WTI Crude latest price is 59.50, with a change of 0.38 [1] - LME Copper latest price is 13193.00, with a change of 320.00 [1] - US Dollar Index latest is 98.89, with a change of -0.24 [1] - Euro to US Dollar latest is 1.17, with a change of 0.00 [1] - British Pound to US Dollar latest is 1.35, with a change of 0.01 [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen latest is 158.16, with a change of 0.23 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory latest is 13607.31, with a change of -70.15 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory latest is 649.64, with a change of 29.38 [1] - Gold ETF holdings latest is 1070.80, with a change of 6.24 [1] - Silver ETF holdings latest is 16347.95, with a change of 39.47 [1] - SGE Silver inventory latest is 818.51, with no change [1] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction latest is 2, with a change of 1.00 [1] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction latest is 2, with no change [1]