1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Tuesday trading session saw the market give back some of the gains from Monday. The valuation of the EC2512 contract is considered neutral, and it will gradually follow the delivery logic, with a significant decrease in open interest. The EC2602 contract is expected to mainly track the spot market. Before the peak season in December is realized, the market is less likely to believe that January will also be a peak season. The high point of freight rates usually occurs 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival (mid - January next year). If the peak season is gradually realized, the EC2602 contract may have more upside potential. The EC2604 contract is still recommended to be approached with a short - selling strategy [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of various EC futures contracts on November 19, 2025, showed declines. For example, EC2512 closed at 1769.5, down 1.27% (-411.8); EC2602 closed at 1678.1, down 2.78% (-320.4); etc. The open interest of most contracts decreased, except for EC2610, which had an increase of 51 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The month - to - month spreads of different contract combinations also changed. For instance, EC2512 - 2504 spread was 580.0, with a day - on - day decrease of 14.7 and a week - on - week decrease of 22.2; EC2512 - 2602 spread was 91.4, with a day - on - day increase of 25.1 and a week - on - week decrease of 81.9 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Indices**: The SCHIS index on November 17, 2025, was 1357.67 points, down 9.78% from the previous period. The SCF (European line) on November 14, 2025, was 1417 dollars/EU, up 7.1% from the previous period. The CCFI was 1403.64 points, up 2.69% from the previous period, and the NCFI was 979.34 points, up 7.42% from the previous period [2]. - **European Line Quotations**: Shipowners previously announced price increases of 2365 - 2950 dollars for the second half of November. In Week 47, the offline PA was around 1900 - 2100, OA and Gemini were at 2200 - 2400, with an average of 2260 dollars (equivalent to about 1580 points on the futures market). In Week 48, the average was 2230 dollars (equivalent to about 1560 points on the futures market). MSK and MSC have issued price increase notices for December, and MSK opened at 2500 dollars for the first week of December, which was in line with expectations [4]. 3.3 Related News - Hamas stated that it is legitimate to resist Israel by all means and refused to disarm. The United Nations Security Council passed a resolution on Gaza, which was welcomed by the State of Palestine. The resolution aims to establish a permanent and comprehensive cease - fire in the Gaza Strip, ensure unimpeded access and distribution of humanitarian aid, and reaffirm the right of the Palestinian people to self - determination and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state [5].

、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担任何责任。 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 830.0 0.0 7.0 71.0 -15.0 25省终端可用天数 25.8 -1.0 5.9 4.9 8.2 秦皇岛5000 737.0 0.0 6.0 68.0 -13.0 25省终端供煤 548.8 -0.9 -59.7 -91.2 -74.0 广州港5500 865.0 0.0 0.0 65.0 -45.0 北方港库存 2453.0 59.0 197.0 237.0 -179.1 鄂尔多斯5500 580.0 0.0 -15.0 70.0 -50.0 北方锚地船舶 124.0 -3.0 -18.0 28.0 59.0 大同5500 630.0 0.0 -15.0 70.0 -80.0 北方港调入量 180.8 -1.4 5.2 39.5 1.3 榆林6000 732.0 10.0 20.0 80.0 -100.0 北方港吞吐量 123.8 -11.4 -43.1 -23.6 -52.4 榆林6200 760.0 ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/19 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- 2月差 | WTI-BREN T | DUBAI-B RT（EFS | NYMEX RB OB | RBOB-BR T | NYMEX HO | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/12 | 58.49 | 62.71 | 64.27 | - | 0.26 | -4.22 | -0.25 | 195.54 | 19.42 | 248.16 | 41.52 | | 2025/11/13 | 58.69 | 63.01 | 64.45 | - | 0.37 | -4.32 | -0.22 | 195.97 | 19.30 | 246.47 | 40.51 | | 2025/11/14 | 60.09 | 64.39 | 65.18 | - ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Corn: In the short term, the spot price of corn has started an upward trend driven by supply tightening and downstream restocking demand. Farmer reluctance to sell has delayed the release of selling pressure. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern remains tight, and planting costs will support prices. After the selling pressure eases, prices may rise again [4]. - Starch: In the short term, starch prices follow raw material prices. High inventory due to slow downstream restocking pressures prices. In the long term, downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor, and a significant price drop may stimulate restocking and price increases [4]. - Sugar: In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar is more affected by import quota management and syrup import control than the international market, with domestic production costs as the key support. In the long term, if the global sugar market surplus deepens, domestic costs may be temporarily broken through. Maintain a short - selling strategy, but the downward space is limited in the short term [5]. - Cotton: New cotton acquisition is mostly completed, with the estimated total output revised down. The positive outcome of the China - US talks and tariff cuts are beneficial for textile exports. The valuation is unlikely to return to the April low, making long - term long positions suitable [7]. - Eggs: Supply pressure is partially relieved by orderly hen culling and a decrease in new layer hens. Demand increases as cooler weather allows longer storage. The price center in production areas has moved up slightly. Monitoring the culling rhythm is crucial, as faster culling may drive prices up [11]. - Apples: National apple storage is mostly finished. The estimated national cold - storage inventory is about 5.5% of capacity, a 10% decrease from last year. The market is short on high - quality apples, and the price difference between good and bad apples has widened. The futures price has risen significantly and is expected to remain high in the short term [15]. - Pigs: The weekend spot market shows weakness in the north and stability in the south. In the short term, the market is in a weak and volatile state. Mid - term supply pressure persists due to un - reduced production capacity. Attention should be paid to factors such as the selling rhythm, diseases, and policies [15]. Detailed Summaries by Product Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From November 12 - 18, 2025, the price in Changchun remained at 2070, while the price in Shekou increased by 20. The corn basis increased by 14, and the trade profit increased by 20. For starch, the basis increased by 22, and the processing profit remained unchanged [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From November 12 - 18, 2025, the price in Kunming decreased by 30, and the Zhengzhou futures price decreased by 11 [5]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From November 12 - 18, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 35, and the total of cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 96. The price of domestic cotton yarn decreased by 5, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 31 [7]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From November 12 - 18, 2025, the prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, Henan, and Hubei decreased by 0.06, 0.07, 0.10, 0.10, and 0.09 respectively. The basis decreased by 79, and the prices of substitute products remained unchanged [11]. Apples - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 12 - 18, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8000.00. The national inventory increased by 5.00, while Shandong and Shaanxi inventories decreased by 38.00 and 27.00 respectively [14][15]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From November 12 - 18, 2025, the prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, Shandong Linyi, Anhui Hefei, and Jiangsu Nantong changed by 0.05, 0.10, - 0.05, 0.05, and 0.00 respectively. The basis increased by 210.00 [15].

Group 1: Core Information - The report is a Synthetic Rubber Morning Report released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on November 19, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Market Data Futures Data - The price of the BR main contract (12) on November 18 was 10,505, with a daily change of 50 and an interval change of 75 compared to October 17. The trading volume was 141,146, up 26,512 from the previous day but down 10,367 compared to October 17. The open interest was 72,021, a decrease of 1,785 from the previous day and 4,376 from October 17. The warrant quantity remained at 12,250, with no daily change and a decrease of 360 compared to October 17. The long - short ratio was 29.40, a daily and interval decrease of 1 [4] Basis and Spread Data - The basis of BR was 45 on November 18, with no daily change but an interval increase of 75. The 12 - 01 spread was 5, a daily decrease of 35 and an interval decrease of 30. The 01 - 02 spread was 20, a daily increase of 10 [4] Spot and Price Difference Data - The Shandong market price of BR on November 18 was 10,550, with a daily increase of 50 and an interval increase of 150. The Qilu ex - factory price was 10,500, with no daily change but an interval increase of 200. The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,350, a daily decrease of 50 and an interval decrease of 50. The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,640, a daily decrease of 45 and an interval decrease of 45 [4] Profit Data - The spot processing profit of BR on November 18 was 904, a daily decrease of 52 and an interval decrease of 3. The import profit was - 798, a daily increase of 452 and an interval increase of 567. The export profit was 1,831, a daily decrease of 364 and an interval decrease of 466 [4] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Market Data Spot Price Data - The Shandong market price of BD on November 18 was 7,300, with a daily increase of 100 and an interval increase of 150. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 7,000, with no daily change but an interval increase of 100. The CFR China price was 770, with no daily change but an interval decrease of 20 [4] Profit Data - The import profit of BD on November 18 was 716, a daily increase of 25 and an interval increase of 269. The export profit was - 1,166, a daily decrease of 22 and an interval decrease of 1,589. The butadiene oxidation dehydrogenation profit was - 1,764, a daily decrease of 115 and an interval decrease of 40 [4] Group 4: Other Product Profit Data - The styrene - butadiene production profit remained at 1,350 on November 18, with no daily change but an interval increase of 75. The ABS production profit was - 302, a daily increase of 15 and an interval decrease of 335. The SBS production profit was - 220, with no daily change but an interval decrease of 130 [4]

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/11/19 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： USDA：截至11月16日当周美国大豆收割率为95%，落后于去年同期 美国农业部（USDA）在每周作物生长报告中公布称，截至2025年11月16日当周，美国大豆收割率为95%，去年同期 为98%，五年均值为96%。 Abiove：巴西2025/26年度大豆产量料为创纪录的1.777亿吨 Abiove周二在一份报告中称，预计巴西2025/26年度大豆产量料为创纪录的1.777亿吨，而之前的预估为1.785亿 吨，高于上一年度的1.721亿吨。 该报告预计巴西2025/26年度大豆压榨量为6,050万吨，与之前预估持平，高于上一年度的5,850万吨。 该报告称，预计2026年巴西大豆出口量将达1.11亿吨，与之前的预估相同，高于2025年的1.09亿吨。 巴西2026年豆油产量将达到创纪录的1,215万吨，与之前的预估相同，2025年为约1,170万吨。 预计巴西2026年豆油进口量将达到史无前例的12.5万吨，较2025年大幅增长25%。 预计巴西2026年豆油出口量将达到前所未有的120万吨，而2025年为100万吨。 预计巴 ...

P T A 日期 原油 石脑油日 本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/11/ 12 62.7 584 825 4590 6580 124.34 241.0 127 179 78.3 75.7 113382 -78 0.35 2025/11/ 13 63.0 569 826 4565 6570 107.14 257.0 106 197 78.3 75.7 113382 -77 0.40 2025/11/ 14 64.4 577 832 4635 6570 105.02 255.0 142 124 77.5 75.7 114594 -77 0.70 2025/11/ 17 64.2 571 831 4615 6590 100.66 260.0 122 161 77.5 75.7 114594 -74 0.45 2025/11/ 18 64.9 569 827 4610 6585 100.66 258.0 137 170 77.5 75.7 1145 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Not provided Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Basis and Spread - The Shandong basis (+80) remained unchanged at -2 on November 18 compared to the previous day, while the South China basis (Foshan warehouse) decreased by 40 to 48 [3]. - The 12 - 01 spread decreased by 19, and the 12 - 03 spread also decreased by 19 on November 18 [3]. 2. Futures Contract Information - The BU main contract (01) price was 3032 on November 18, with no change from the previous day. The trading volume increased by 20300 to 219131, and the open interest decreased by 13 to 349644 [3]. 3. Crude Oil and Spot Prices - Brent crude oil price was 64.2 on November 18, a decrease of 0.2 from the previous day. Among spot prices, Jingbo increased by 10 to 3030, while the Foshan warehouse price decreased by 40 to 3080 [3]. 4. Profit - The asphalt - Ma Rui profit increased by 18 to 92, and the Ma Rui - type refinery comprehensive profit increased by 4 [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on November 19, 2025, including domestic and LME prices, price ratios, spreads, and theoretical spreads [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On November 19, 2025, the domestic spot price was 86000, the LME spot price was 10647, with a ratio of 8.12; the domestic three - month price was 85660, the LME three - month price was 10682, with a ratio of 8.04. There was no information on spot import and export profitability [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22290, the LME spot price was 3100, with a ratio of 7.19; the domestic three - month price was 22345, the LME three - month price was 2971, with a ratio of 5.82. There was no information on spot import and export profitability [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21460, the LME spot price was 2752, with a ratio of 7.80; the domestic three - month price was 21480, the LME three - month price was 2788, with a ratio of 7.71. There was no information on spot import and export profitability [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 118800, the LME spot price was 14335, with a ratio of 8.29. The spot import profit was - 2326.46 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17100, the LME spot price was 2002, with a ratio of 8.57; the domestic three - month price was 17245, the LME three - month price was 2030, with a ratio of 10.98. There was no information on spot import and export profitability [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads for次月 - spot month, three - month - spot month, four - month - spot month, and five - month - spot month were - 670, - 670, - 650, - 720 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 534, 965, 1406, 1847 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads for次月 - spot month, three - month - spot month, four - month - spot month, and five - month - spot month were - 125, - 110, - 90, - 60 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 337, 458, 579 respectively [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads for次月 - spot month, three - month - spot month, four - month - spot month, and five - month - spot month were - 120, - 105, - 90, - 80 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 219, 339, 459, 579 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads for次月 - spot month, three - month - spot month, four - month - spot month, and five - month - spot month were - 40, - 25, - 30, 35 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 211, 319, 426, 533 respectively [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads for次月 - spot month, three - month - spot month, four - month - spot month, and five - month - spot month were - 1650, - 1430, - 1190, - 900 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 130, and the theoretical spread was 5980 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads for the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot were 365 and - 305 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads for the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot were 165 and 40 respectively [4][5]. - **Lead**: The spreads for the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot were 170 and 130 respectively [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.83, 3.99, 4.97, 0.96, 1.25, 0.77 respectively; for London (three - continuous) were 3.59, 3.86, 5.30, 0.93, 1.37, 0.68 respectively [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents Group 2: Report's Core View - This week, copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and 85,000 yuan might be the psychological price for downstream price-fixing. Aluminum prices showed a short - term oscillating trend. Zinc prices fluctuated, and the price center was unlikely to drop significantly. Nickel and stainless - steel fundamentals were weak, and short - term high - selling opportunities could be considered. Lead prices oscillated at a high level and were expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week. Tin prices increased, with short - term observation recommended and long - term low - buying near the cost line. Industrial silicon prices were expected to oscillate in the short - term and at the cycle bottom in the long - term. Carbonate lithium prices were strong, and a pattern change might occur in 1 - 2 years [1][2][5][6][7][8][9][12][16][18] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Driven by the precious metal market, copper prices were strong in the first half of the week and adjusted on Friday. The downstream price - fixing volume rebounded significantly. The market had both liquidity easing expectations and AI bubble risks. The 85,000 - yuan level might be the psychological price for downstream price - fixing [1] Aluminum - Overseas shutdown news boosted the domestic aluminum price, which was stronger than the overseas price. Short - term profit - taking led to a correction in the Shanghai aluminum futures. Aluminum ingots continued to accumulate inventory, while aluminum rods and strips slightly reduced inventory. Downstream consumption was okay, and the acceptance of high prices increased. It might show an oscillating trend in the short - term [1][2] Zinc - This week, zinc prices oscillated. The domestic and imported TC decreased further. The supply of domestic mines would be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The processing fee decreased significantly, but the smelter's profit was still okay. In November, the Huoshaoyun zinc ingot was officially put into production. Domestic demand was seasonally weak, while overseas demand in the Middle East had high growth. The domestic social inventory oscillated, and the overseas LME inventory was at a low level. The export window was open. It was recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities, and focus on the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 [5] Nickel - The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, demand was weak, and both domestic and overseas inventories continued to accumulate. With continuous disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market and price - support motivation from the policy side, short - term high - selling opportunities could be considered [6] Stainless - steel - The steel mill's production increased slightly in October. Demand was mainly for rigid needs. The prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron remained stable. Inventory was at a high level. With price - support motivation from the Indonesian policy side, short - term high - selling opportunities could be considered [6][7] Lead - This week, lead prices oscillated at a high level. The scrap rate was weak year - on - year, but the recovery of recycling profit encouraged resumption of production. The supply of refined lead and recycled lead was tight from late September, and the current resumption of recycled lead production had alleviated the supply - demand contradiction. The battery's production rate increased by 1.4% this week, but the finished - product inventory increased, and demand was expected to weaken. It was expected that lead prices would maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, between 17,300 - 17,700 yuan [8][9] Tin - This week, the center of tin prices increased. The processing fee of tin ore remained low, with limited upward space. The supply marginally recovered after the Yunnan Tin's maintenance ended. Overseas production was still uncertain. Demand was mainly rigid, and the downstream's acceptable price increased. The short - term fundamentals were okay, and it was recommended to wait and see. In the long - term, it was recommended to buy near the cost line [12] Industrial Silicon - The production of the leading enterprise in Xinjiang was stable. In the fourth quarter, the supply and demand of industrial silicon were expected to be in a slightly loose balance. In the short - term, prices were expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, they were expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [16] Carbonate Lithium - Affected by the expected lithium - battery demand and market bullish sentiment, carbonate lithium prices were strong. The lithium ore was in short supply, and the upstream inventory decreased significantly. The downstream inventory was relatively sufficient, and the market was in a wait - and - see state. In the long - term, the pattern change might occur in 1 - 2 years [18]