Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold market: The international gold price denominated in London gold has broken through the $2000 mark. The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, but the Fed's outlook is contradictory. The short - term price is at a historical high, and there may be significant high - level fluctuations in the future. It is recommended to hold gold long positions and hold silver long positions cautiously [1][2] - Basic metals: Different metals have different market outlooks. Copper is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; aluminum is expected to be volatile in the short - term; alumina is expected to be volatile and weak; zinc is recommended to sell short at high prices; lead is recommended for range - bound operations; industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8200 - 9300; lithium carbonate is recommended to short - sell the far - month contracts at high prices and build small positions [3][4][5] - Black industry: Steel has limited supply - demand contradictions but obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to hold short positions in rebar. Iron ore and coking coal are recommended for a wait - and - see approach [6] - Agricultural products: Different agricultural products have different trends. Soybean meal is in a range - bound and weak situation; corn futures prices are expected to be weak; the unilateral trading of oils and fats is difficult, and the P structure is suitable for reverse arbitrage; cotton is recommended for a wait - and - see approach; eggs and live pigs' futures prices are expected to be weak [7][8] - Energy and chemicals: Different chemical products have different trading strategies. LLDPE, PP, and styrene are recommended to short at high prices or conduct reverse arbitrage in the medium - to - long - term; PVC is recommended for short positions or reverse arbitrage; PTA is recommended to short the processing fee of far - month contracts at high prices; glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are recommended for a wait - and - see approach; MEG is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - to - long - term; crude oil is recommended to short at high prices [9][10][11] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market - Market performance: The international gold price denominated in London gold has broken through the $2000 mark [1] - Fundamentals: There are factors such as potential trade - war mitigation, Fed's possible interest - rate cuts, China's economic data, and changes in gold and silver inventories [1] - Trading strategy: Hold gold long positions and hold silver long positions cautiously [2] Basic Metals Copper - Market performance: The copper price oscillated yesterday [3] - Fundamentals: The market sentiment improved, the supply of copper ore remained tight, and the demand showed certain characteristics [3] - Trading strategy: Treat it with a view of being volatile and slightly stronger [3] Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.24% compared with the previous trading day [3] - Fundamentals: The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate decreased slightly [3] - Trading strategy: The short - term aluminum price will maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.28% compared with the previous trading day [4] - Fundamentals: Alumina plants maintained high production, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [4] - Trading strategy: The short - term alumina trend is dominated by oversupply. It is recommended to wait and see [4] Zinc - Market performance: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc 2510 contract decreased by 1.15% compared with the previous trading day [4] - Fundamentals: The supply pressure continued, the consumption was not outstanding, and the inventory situation was complex [4] - Trading strategy: Sell short at high prices [4] Lead - Market performance: The closing price of the Shanghai lead 2509 contract increased by 0.88% compared with the previous trading day [4] - Fundamentals: The supply and demand were intertwined, and there was an expected short - term support [4] - Trading strategy: Conduct range - bound operations [4] Industrial Silicon - Market performance: The main 11 - contract price increased by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [4] - Fundamentals: The supply and demand had certain changes, and the inventory situation was mixed [4] - Trading strategy: The short - term fundamentals need to focus on the resumption rhythm of large factories, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8200 - 9300 [4] Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The main contract LC2511 closed at 72,720 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [4] - Fundamentals: The supply and demand were expected to be in a tight balance in October, and the inventory and capital situation changed [4][5] - Trading strategy: Pay attention to the Sino - US leadership negotiation progress. It is recommended to short - sell the far - month contracts at high prices and build small positions [5] Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The main 2601 - contract of rebar closed at 3023 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6] - Fundamentals: The rebar demand was weak, and the supply - demand contradiction was limited but with obvious structural differentiation [6] - Trading strategy: Hold short positions in rebar [6] Iron Ore - Market performance: The main 2601 - contract of iron ore closed at 770 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6] - Fundamentals: The supply and demand were marginally neutral and slightly strong, and the inventory accumulation might be slower than the historical average [6] - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [6] Coking Coal - Market performance: The main 2601 - contract of coking coal closed at 1148.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6] - Fundamentals: The supply - side inventory was differentiated, and the futures valuation was high [6] - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [6] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: The overnight CBOT soybean changed little [7] - Fundamentals: The supply and demand had certain characteristics, and the global inventory was expected to remain high [7] - Trading strategy: The US soybeans were weak and range - bound, and the domestic situation was weak with high mid - term uncertainty [7] Corn - Market performance: The corn futures price rebounded slightly, and the domestic corn spot price continued to decline [7] - Fundamentals: The weather affected the harvest, and the new - crop supply and cost factors put pressure on the price [7] - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to be weak [7] Oils and Fats - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil rebounded yesterday [7] - Fundamentals: The supply was in a seasonal decline, and the demand increased [7] - Trading strategy: The unilateral trading of oils and fats is difficult, and the P structure is suitable for reverse arbitrage [7] Cotton - Market performance: The overnight US cotton futures price stopped falling and rebounded, and the international crude oil price continued to weaken [7] - Fundamentals: The international and domestic cotton markets had different situations [7] - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and use a range - bound strategy of 13200 - 13600 yuan/ton [7] Eggs - Market performance: The egg futures price oscillated narrowly, and the egg spot price was stable [7] - Fundamentals: The supply was strong and the demand was weak after the festival [7] - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to be weak [7] Live Pigs - Market performance: The live - pig futures price was weak, and the live - pig spot price rebounded [8] - Fundamentals: The post - festival demand decreased, and the supply increased [8] - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to be weak [8] Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market performance: The main LLDPE contract continued to decline slightly yesterday [9] - Fundamentals: The supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and the demand improved in the agricultural film season [9] - Trading strategy: It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term, and it is recommended to short at high prices or conduct reverse arbitrage in the medium - to - long - term [9] PVC - Market performance: The V01 contract closed at 4678, down 0.1% [9] - Fundamentals: The supply increased, the demand was weak, and the cost was expected to decline [9] - Trading strategy: Short positions or reverse arbitrage are recommended [9] PTA - Market performance: The PXCFR China price was 787 US dollars/ton, and the PTA East - China spot price was 4325 yuan/ton [9] - Fundamentals: The PX supply was high, the PTA supply pressure was alleviated in the short - term but large in the long - term, and the downstream situation was complex [9] - Trading strategy: The PX price is expected to be volatile and weak, and it is recommended to short the processing fee of far - month PTA contracts at high prices [9] Glass - Market performance: The FG01 contract closed at 1129, down 1.7% [10] - Fundamentals: The glass price declined, the supply was high, the inventory accumulated, and the downstream demand was weak [10] - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [10] PP - Market performance: The main PP contract continued to decline slightly yesterday [10] - Fundamentals: The supply increased, the demand was in the peak season, and the import and export windows changed [10] - Trading strategy: It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term, and it is recommended to short at high prices or conduct reverse arbitrage in the medium - to - long - term [10] MEG - Market performance: The MEG East - China spot price was 4114 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 65 yuan/ton [10] - Fundamentals: The supply pressure was large, the inventory was at a low level, and the downstream situation was complex [10] - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short - term and short at high prices in the medium - to - long - term [10] Crude Oil - Market performance: The oil price first fell and then rose yesterday [10] - Fundamentals: The supply pressure increased, and the demand was seasonally weak and faced uncertainties [10] - Trading strategy: Short at high prices in the general direction [10] Styrene - Market performance: The main EB contract continued to decline slightly yesterday [11] - Fundamentals: The supply and demand contradictions of pure benzene and styrene were large, and the downstream situation was not good [11] - Trading strategy: It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term, and it is recommended to short at high prices or conduct reverse arbitrage in the medium - to - long - term [11] Soda Ash - Market performance: The sa01 contract closed at 1232, up 0.3% [11] - Fundamentals: The supply was in the high - production season, the inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was complex [11] - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [11] Caustic Soda - Market performance: The SH01 contract closed at 2439, up 0.3% [11] - Fundamentals: The supply was normal, the inventory accumulated, and the non - aluminum demand recovery was not as expected [11] - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Maintain a long - term view of going long on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips. There are signs of short - term market cooling [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term bias is bullish as the implied yield of ultra - long bonds at 2.2 is cost - effective. For the medium - to - long - term, with rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is advisable to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures Spot and Futures Market Performance - **Market Performance on October 15**: A - share four major stock indexes rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.22% to 3912.21 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73% to 13118.75 points, the ChiNext Index rose 2.36% to 3025.87 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 1.4% to 1430 points. Market turnover was 2.0904 trillion yuan, a decrease of 506.2 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, power equipment (+2.72%), automobiles (+2.37%), and electronics (+2.29%) led the gains; steel (-0.21%), petroleum and petrochemicals (-0.14%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+0.01%) led the losses. In terms of market strength, IM>IF>IC>IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 4332/153/944 respectively. Net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 8 billion, - 85 billion, - 104 billion, and 197 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +38.4 billion, +15.3 billion, - 29.1 billion, and - 24.6 billion yuan respectively [1]. - **Basis and Annualized Basis Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 120.85, 97.8, 19.69, and 3.15 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 14.42%, - 11.97%, - 3.82%, and - 0.94% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles were 18%, 13%, 24%, and 35% respectively [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - to - long - term, maintain the view of going long on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips. There are signs of short - term market cooling [1]. (2) Treasury Bond Futures Spot and Futures Market Performance - **Market Performance on October 15**: The bond market weakened. Among the active contracts, the implied yield of the two - year bond was 1.395, up 0.93 bps from the previous day; the implied yield of the five - year bond was 1.572, up 1.19 bps; the implied yield of the ten - year bond was 1.752, up 3.83 bps; and the implied yield of the thirty - year bond was 2.211, up 1.29 bps [1]. - **Cash Bond Situation**: The current active contract is the 2512 contract. For the 2 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250012.IB, with a yield change of +0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.024, and an IRR of 1.56%; for the 5 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250003.IB, with a yield change of +0.4 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.038, and an IRR of 1.64%; for the 10 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 220019.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.04 and an IRR of 1.65%; for the 30 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210014.IB, with a yield change of - 0.38 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.156, and an IRR of 2.13% [1]. - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 43.5 billion yuan and withdrew 0 yuan, with a net injection of 43.5 billion yuan [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term bias is bullish, as the implied yield of ultra - long bonds at 2.2 is cost - effective; for the medium - to - long - term, with rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is advisable to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [1]. (3) Economic Data High - frequency data shows that the recent prosperity of social activities, real estate, and infrastructure is lower than in previous periods [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market is in a state of multi - air stalemate with a high probability of oscillation. Some arbitrage strategies need to be adjusted according to the market situation, such as exiting some positions and holding or rolling others [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market shows a weakening trend with oscillations. Spiral steel and wire are rising. There are various changes in the ratios and spreads of different commodity futures contracts [4]. Specific Arbitrage Strategies - **Corn and Strong Wheat Cross - variety Arbitrage**: The ratio of strong wheat 909 to corn 909 has a narrow - range oscillation. The arbitrage of buying corn 909 and selling strong wheat 909 should be put on hold [4][19]. - **Soybean and Bean Meal Cross - variety Arbitrage**: The ratio of soybean 1001 to bean meal 1001 oscillates. The arbitrage of buying soybean 1001 and selling bean meal 1001 should be exited and put on hold [4][7]. - **Soybean Oil and Bean Meal Cross - variety Arbitrage**: The ratio of soybean oil 1001 to bean meal 1001 slightly declines. The arbitrage of buying soybean oil 1001 and selling bean meal 1001 should be exited and put on hold [4][10]. - **Rapeseed Oil and Soybean Oil Cross - variety Arbitrage**: The spread between rapeseed oil 909 and soybean oil 909 continues to rise. The arbitrage of buying rapeseed oil 909 and selling soybean oil 909 should be continued to hold, with a target spread of 450 [4][12]. - **Soybean, Bean Meal, and Soybean Oil Pressing Arbitrage**: The 1 - month pressing profit has a narrow - range oscillation. The arbitrage of buying soybean 1001 and selling soybean oil and bean meal should be exited and put on hold [4][14]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil Arbitrage**: The ratio of 9 - month soybean oil to palm oil continues to rise. The arbitrage of buying 9 - month soybean oil and selling 9 - month palm oil can consider taking profits and waiting for new opportunities [4][18]. - **Soybean Oil Inter - period Arbitrage**: The spread between soybean oil 1001 and 909 oscillates and slightly expands. Wait for the spread to reach around 100 to build a position for the arbitrage of buying 1001 and selling 909 [4][22]. - **Sugar Arbitrage**: The arbitrage spread of buying sugar 1001 and selling 909 oscillates between 305 - 335. The arbitrage of buying 909 and selling 1001 can be rolled opportunistically with a reduced profit target of 280 [4][25]. - **Soybean Inter - period Arbitrage**: The spread between soybean 1001 and 909 oscillates. The arbitrage of buying 909 and selling 1001 can take profits and exit [4][28]. - **Bean Meal Inter - period Arbitrage**: The spread between bean meal 1001 and 909 may continue to expand. The arbitrage of buying 909 and selling 1001 can be rolled opportunistically within the range of 200 - 280 [4][30]. Arbitrage Basics - Arbitrage trading involves buying one futures contract and selling another related futures contract simultaneously, including inter - period, cross - variety, and cross - market arbitrage. It aims to profit from the spread or ratio changes between two contracts, with advantages such as lower risk and more predictable spreads [31]. Arbitrage Operation Examples - **Spread Arbitrage**: When the price difference between two contracts is small, operate with the same contract value. For example, in the case of rapeseed oil 905 and soybean oil 905 in 2008 - 2009, a profit was made by buying the stronger contract and selling the weaker one [32]. - **Ratio Arbitrage**: When the price difference between two contracts is large, use the ratio to observe the strength. For example, in the case of strong wheat 905 and corn 905 in 2008, a profit was achieved by buying the stronger contract and selling the weaker one based on the ratio analysis [34]. Operation Modes - **Rolling Operation**: When reaching the target value, partially close the position (can retain part of the position) without reverse operation. Resume the original - direction operation when the target value is reached again [35]. - **Range Operation**: Conduct reverse operations within a predetermined range [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy, recommend buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips, and note short - term market cooling signs [3] - For bond futures, be short - term bullish, consider the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds at 2.2 to be cost - effective; for the medium - to - long - term, suggest hedging T and TL contracts on rallies due to rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On October 14, A - share four major stock indexes declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.62% to 3865.23 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.54% to 12895.11 points, the ChiNext Index decreased 3.99% to 2955.98 points, and the STAR 50 Index declined 4.26% to 1410.3 points. Market turnover was 25,966 billion yuan, an increase of 2,224 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, banks (+2.51%), coal (+2.18%), and food and beverage (+1.69%) led the gains; communication (-4.98%), electronics (-4.64%), and non - ferrous metals (-3.66%) led the losses [2] - In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IM > IC. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 1,733, 148, and 3,547 respectively. Net capital inflows of institutions, main funds, large - scale investors, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 392, - 238, 187, and 443 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 241, + 10, + 189, and + 43 billion yuan [2] - The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts was 143.15, 128.85, 23.86, and - 0.3 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 16.74%, - 15.44%, - 4.53%, and 0.09%, and three - year historical quantiles of 11%, 8%, 20%, and 45% [3] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On October 14, the bond market strengthened. Among active contracts, the implied interest rate of two - year bonds was 1.393, down 1.33bps from the previous day; that of five - year bonds was 1.561, down 2.39bps; that of ten - year bonds was 1.721, down 4.57bps; and that of thirty - year bonds was 2.202, down 1.84bps [3] - For the current active 2512 contracts, the CTD bonds, yield changes, net basis, and IRR of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are detailed. The central bank had a net currency injection of 910 billion yuan through open - market operations [4] 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent prosperity of social activities, real estate, and infrastructure is lower than in previous periods [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, but the Fed's outlook is contradictory. The short - term prices of gold and silver are at historical highs, with potential for significant high - level fluctuations. For base metals, the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, macro - policies, and trade frictions. In the black industry, the supply - demand relationship shows structural differentiation. The agricultural product market is influenced by factors like production, demand, and policies. The energy and chemical market is facing a situation where supply is increasing and demand is complex, with different trends for different products [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Category Gold Market - **Market Performance**: International gold prices denominated in London Gold rose and then fell, closing at $4141 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Powell's speech was interpreted as opening the door for Fed rate cuts. Fed Governor Bowman expected two rate cuts by the end of the year. There was an inflow of funds into domestic gold ETFs. COMEX gold inventory decreased by 2 tons to 1233 tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory increased by 2.2 tons to 72.2 tons. London's September gold inventory increased by 39 tons to 8839 tons. The global largest gold ETF - SPDR's holdings increased by 3 tons to 1021 tons [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long gold positions and hold long silver positions cautiously due to potential high - level fluctuations [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated weakly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Powell said the Fed would end balance - sheet reduction in the next few months. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and the spot premium of refined copper in East and South China varied [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a new buying opportunity after sufficient consolidation [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract decreased by 0.12% to 20860 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see, and pay attention to the progress of APEC on November 1st [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 0.53% to 2805 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Alumina plants maintained high - yield status, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see, and focus on the impact of the heating season production restrictions and alumina plant shutdowns [2][3]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc 2510 contract decreased by 0.02% to 22,200 yuan/ton. The domestic zinc inventory increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure persisted, and the production in October was expected to increase to over 620,000 tons. Consumption did not exceed expectations [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short at high prices [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead 2509 contract decreased by 0.29% to 17,050 yuan/ton. The domestic lead inventory decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Recycled lead smelters resumed production after maintenance, and the consumer side showed resilience. The lithium - battery export control policy was expected to drive some consumption back to lead - acid batteries [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main contract price decreased by 3.24% to 8520 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces increased, and production was expected to decrease in the southwest in late October. Social inventory increased slightly, and demand was supported by the high start - up rate of polysilicon [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, as the price is expected to oscillate between 8200 - 9300 yuan/ton [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2511 closed at 72,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, and demand from downstream products such as lithium - iron phosphate and ternary materials also increased. The market was expected to maintain a tight balance in October [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the Sino - US leadership negotiations. Consider short - selling the far - month contracts due to the expected oversupply next year [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main contract price increased by 2.56% to 49990 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased slightly, and demand from downstream products was stable. The photovoltaic installation in August decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Focus on the progress of the state - purchase platform and the 11 - 12 spread. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options for low - risk investors [4]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices oscillated weakly [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Short - term tin ore supply was tight, but there was an expectation of future supply loosening. Traditional demand was a drag, and global visible inventory continued to decrease [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a range - bound trading strategy in the short term [4]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main rebar contract 2601 closed at 3052 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar demand was weak, and production was expected to decline due to low profits. Plate demand was stable [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short rebar positions, with the RB01 reference range of 3020 - 3090 yuan/ton [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main iron ore contract 2601 closed at 784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Australian and Brazilian shipments decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Iron ore supply and demand were marginally neutral to strong, and inventory accumulation was expected to be slower than the historical average [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with the I01 reference range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main coking coal contract 2601 closed at 1143.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.5 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill profits were stabilizing, and the first round of price increases was implemented. Supply - side inventories were differentiated, and the futures were at a premium [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with the JM01 reference range of 1110 - 1170 yuan/ton [5]. Agricultural Product Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: Overnight CBOT soybeans fell slightly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: US soybeans had a slight production decrease, and South America was expected to increase production. US soybean demand was differentiated, with increased crushing but weak export demand due to tariff policies [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans were weak and range - bound. The domestic market was loose in the short term, with high mid - term uncertainty depending on the Sino - US tariff policy [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices rebounded slightly, while spot prices continued to fall [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Continuous rain in North China affected corn harvesting, increasing the risk of quality damage and storage difficulty. New - crop production was expected to increase, and costs decreased [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices were expected to oscillate downward due to the pressure of new - crop listing [6]. Edible Oils - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil prices fell in the short term [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Malaysian palm oil production decreased seasonally in September, and exports increased. The market continued to accumulate inventory in September with an expectation of future seasonal production decline [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: It was difficult to trade edible oils unilaterally, and the P contract was suitable for reverse spreads. Pay attention to production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Overnight US cotton futures prices oscillated downward, and international crude oil prices continued to weaken [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazil's 25/26 cotton production was expected to decrease by 1%. Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated narrowly. China's textile and clothing exports from January to September decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with a trading strategy in the range of 13200 - 13600 yuan/ton [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices rebounded slightly, and most spot prices remained stable [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Post - holiday demand weakened seasonally, while supply continued to increase. Egg inventory accumulated, and low vegetable prices dragged down egg prices [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices were expected to weaken [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices were weak, while spot prices rebounded slightly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Post - holiday demand decreased significantly, and pig slaughter was expected to increase from October to November, increasing the supply - demand gap [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices were expected to weaken [7]. Energy and Chemical Market LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract continued to decline slightly. The domestic spot price was 6900 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased but at a slower pace, and demand improved seasonally in the agricultural film sector [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the market was expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, as new plants were put into operation, the supply - demand pattern would loosen. Consider short - selling at high prices or reverse spreads [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 contract closed at 4963, a decrease of 0.6% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased with new plant production. Demand was weak due to low downstream start - up rates and negative real - estate indicators. Social inventory reached a new high [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell or use reverse spreads due to the weak supply - demand balance [8]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The CFR China price of PX was $791 per ton, and the PTA spot price in East China was 4440 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: PX supply was high, and PTA supply pressure was relieved in the short term but large in the long term. Polyester factory load was high, and terminal orders improved structurally [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: PX prices were expected to oscillate weakly, and short - sell the processing fee of PTA's far - month contracts [8]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: The RU2601 contract closed at 14845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.97% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Thai raw material prices weakened, and rubber inventories in Qingdao changed. Spot prices were stable to weak [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously or wait and see due to the lack of short - term positive factors [9]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG01 contract closed at 1139, a decrease of 3.4% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass supply was high, and inventory accumulated. Downstream demand was weak due to negative real - estate indicators [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see due to the weak supply - demand balance [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main PP contract continued to decline slightly. The domestic spot price was 6550 yuan/ton, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, and demand improved seasonally during the "Golden September and Silver October" [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the market was expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, as new plants were put into operation, the supply - demand pattern would loosen. Consider short - selling at high prices or reverse spreads [9]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The MEG spot price in East China was 4171 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 69 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure was high after new plant production. Import supply was expected to increase. Polyester factory load was high, and terminal orders improved structurally [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term due to low inventory and macro - volatility. Short - sell at high prices in the long term due to inventory accumulation pressure [9]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices fell again due to Sino - US trade uncertainties and weak fundamentals [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure increased as multiple countries planned to increase production, while demand decreased seasonally and was affected by trade frictions [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short SC positions [10]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main EB contract continued to decline slightly. The domestic spot price was 6650 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories were at normal to high levels, and downstream demand was weak despite the seasonal peak [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the market was expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, as supply increased, the supply - demand pattern would loosen. Consider short - selling at high prices or reverse spreads [10]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA01 contract closed at 1234, a decrease of 0.7% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Soda ash supply was high, and inventory accumulated during the National Day. Downstream demand from photovoltaic glass was stable but with high inventory [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see due to the supply - demand balance [10]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The SH01 contract closed at 2429, a decrease of 1% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Caustic soda spot prices stopped falling, and futures prices continued to decline. Inventory accumulated, and non - aluminum demand recovery was less than expected [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see due to the supply - demand balance [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [4] 2. Report's Core View - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses market performance, fundamentals, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each sector, with an overall cautious and diversified view on the market trends [2][3][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Gold - Market performance: International gold prices denominated in London gold continued to rise, breaking through $4,100 per ounce [2] - Fundamentals: Multiple factors influenced the market, including US Treasury payment prioritization, China's trade data, and international political events. Domestic gold ETF funds flowed in, and there were changes in gold and silver inventories in different exchanges [2] - Trading strategy: The logic of de - dollarization remained unchanged. With the Fed's expected interest rate cut and a high - price short - term situation, there was a possibility of significant high - level volatility in the future. It was recommended to hold gold long positions and be cautious with silver long positions [2] Silver - Market performance: Speculative funds flooded into London silver, causing a short squeeze, but global supplies started to enter the market [2] - Fundamentals: Similar to gold, influenced by various factors, with changes in inventories and ETF holdings [2] - Trading strategy: Be cautious with long positions due to potential high - level volatility [2] Base Metals Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.45% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 20,885 yuan per ton [3] - Fundamentals: Aluminum smelters maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate decreased slightly [3] - Trading strategy: Temporarily observe, paying attention to the progress of APEC on November 1st [3] Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 1.26% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 2,820 yuan per ton [3] - Fundamentals: Alumina plants maintained high production, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3] - Trading strategy: Expect prices to fluctuate weakly, temporarily observe, and focus on heating - season production restrictions and alumina plant shutdowns [3] Zinc - Market performance: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc contract decreased by 0.07% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 22,205 yuan per ton. There were changes in spreads and inventories [3][5] - Fundamentals: Supply pressure persisted, with rising production expected in October. Consumption showed no significant improvement, and inventories had different trends in domestic and LME markets [5] - Trading strategy: Sell on rallies [5] Lead - Market performance: The closing price of the Shanghai lead contract remained unchanged at 17,100 yuan per ton. There were changes in spreads and inventories [4] - Fundamentals: Supply increased as recycled lead smelters resumed production, while consumption showed some resilience. Lithium - battery export control policies were expected to support lead - acid battery demand [4] - Trading strategy: Operate within a range [4] Industrial Silicon - Market performance: The main contract showed price fluctuations, with changes in positions, open interest, and warehouse receipts [4] - Fundamentals: Supply was expected to be affected by the upcoming dry season in the southwest region. Social inventories increased slightly, and demand was supported by high - rate polysilicon production [4] - Trading strategy: The price was expected to fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,300 yuan per ton, and it was recommended to observe [4] Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The main contract price decreased by 0.6%, and there were changes in spot prices and basis [4] - Fundamentals: Supply increased, with expected growth in October production. Demand for downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials also increased. The market was expected to maintain a tight balance [4] - Trading strategy: Observe the progress of Sino - US leadership negotiations. Consider short - selling on rallies in the far - month contract if there is no significant impact from lithium mine shutdowns [4] Polysilicon - Market performance: The main contract price decreased by 0.46%, with changes in positions, open interest, and warehouse receipts [4] - Fundamentals: Supply increased slightly, and industry inventories accumulated faster. Downstream product prices were stable, and there were declines in silicon wafer and battery cell production schedules [4] - Trading strategy: Observe the progress of the state - reserve purchase platform and consider spread trading or option strategies [4] Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The main contract price decreased by 35 yuan per ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [6] - Fundamentals: Rebar demand was weak, and production might decline due to low profits. Plate demand was stable. Overall, the steel market had limited supply - demand contradictions but obvious structural differentiation [6] - Trading strategy: Hold short positions in rebar, with a reference range of 3,040 - 3,110 yuan per ton for the RB01 contract [6] Iron Ore - Market performance: The main contract price increased by 1 yuan per ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [6] - Fundamentals: Australian and Brazilian shipments decreased, and iron - water production decreased slightly. The first round of coke price increases was implemented. The supply - demand situation was marginally neutral to strong, and inventory accumulation was expected to be slower than the historical average [6] - Trading strategy: Observe mainly, with a reference range of 790 - 820 yuan per ton for the I01 contract [6] Coking Coal - Market performance: The main contract price decreased by 8.5 yuan per ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [6] - Fundamentals: Steel mill profits were marginally stable. The first round of price increases was implemented, and there was resistance to further increases. Inventory levels were low, and the futures were at a premium to the spot [6] - Trading strategy: Observe mainly, with a reference range of 1,110 - 1,170 yuan per ton for the JM01 contract [6] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: CBOT soybeans rebounded slightly overnight [7] - Fundamentals: Supply was expected to be slightly higher year - on - year, with a small reduction in US soybean production and an expected increase in South American production. Demand was differentiated, with increased crushing but weak export demand due to tariff policies [7][8] - Trading strategy: US soybeans were expected to fluctuate within a range. The domestic market was in a loose situation, with a tendency to fluctuate, and the medium - term trend was uncertain, depending on Sino - US tariff policies [8] Corn - Market performance: Corn futures prices were weak, and spot prices continued to decline [8] - Fundamentals: Bad weather in North China affected corn harvesting, increasing the risk of quality damage and storage difficulty. New grain was about to be listed, and downstream procurement was inactive. New - crop production was expected to increase, and costs decreased, putting pressure on prices [8] - Trading strategy: Futures prices were expected to decline with fluctuations due to new - crop listing pressure [8] Edible Oils - Market performance: Malaysian palm oil prices fell, digesting a bearish MPOB report and weak macro - environment [8] - Fundamentals: Malaysian palm oil production was in a seasonal decline, while exports increased. Overall, inventory continued to accumulate in September, with an expected seasonal decline in the future [8] - Trading strategy: It was difficult to trade edible oils unilaterally, and there were differences among varieties. It was recommended to consider reverse spreads for palm oil. Pay attention to production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [8] Cotton - Market performance: Overnight US cotton futures prices fluctuated and declined, while international crude oil prices rebounded [8] - Fundamentals: International data from USDA was suspended. US clothing retail sales increased, and there were changes in domestic cotton supply and inventory [8] - Trading strategy: Temporarily observe, with a range - trading strategy between 13,200 - 13,600 yuan per ton [8] Eggs - Market performance: Egg futures prices were weak, and spot prices showed mixed trends [8] - Fundamentals: Post - holiday demand decreased seasonally, while supply continued to increase, resulting in a supply - demand imbalance. Egg inventories accumulated, and low vegetable prices dragged down egg prices [8] - Trading strategy: Futures prices were expected to decline with fluctuations due to weakening demand [8] Pigs - Market performance: Pig futures prices were weak, and national pig prices showed mixed trends [8] - Fundamentals: Seasonally, pig prices usually declined after the double festivals. Supply was expected to increase from October to November, widening the supply - demand gap and putting pressure on prices [8] - Trading strategy: Futures prices were expected to decline due to the supply - demand imbalance [8] Energy Chemicals LLDPE - Market performance: The main contract continued to decline slightly, with changes in basis and market trading volume. The import window was closed [10] - Fundamentals: Supply increased but at a slower pace, with new device launches and potential production cuts in some plants. Demand improved in the agricultural film season but was stable in other areas [10] - Trading strategy: In the short term, the market was expected to fluctuate weakly. In the long term, as new devices were put into operation, the supply - demand pattern would become looser. It was recommended to short at high prices or engage in spread trading [10] PVC - Market performance: The V01 contract price decreased by 0.6% [10] - Fundamentals: Supply increased with new device launches, demand was weak due to low downstream factory operating rates and a sluggish real - estate market, and social inventories reached a new high [10] - Trading strategy: It was recommended to short or engage in spread trading due to the weak supply - demand balance [10] PTA - Market performance: There were changes in PX and PTA prices and basis [10] - Fundamentals: PX supply was high, and PTA supply pressure was relieved in the short term but large in the long term. Polyester factory loads were high, and terminal orders improved structurally [10] - Trading strategy: PX prices were expected to fluctuate weakly, and it was recommended to short the processing fee of PTA in the far - month contract [10] Rubber - Market performance: The main contract price decreased by 2.73% [10] - Fundamentals: Raw material prices in Thailand changed, and there were changes in natural rubber inventories in Qingdao [10] - Trading strategy: The price was expected to be weak in the short term, and it was recommended to hold short positions cautiously or observe [10] Glass - Market performance: The FG01 contract price decreased by 3.6% [11] - Fundamentals: Supply was high, and inventory accumulated. Downstream demand was weak, but there were expectations of supply reduction [11] - Trading strategy: Observe due to the supply - demand balance and supply - reduction expectations [11] PP - Market performance: The main contract continued to decline slightly, with changes in basis and trading volume. The import window was closed, and the export window was open [11] - Fundamentals: Supply increased with new device launches, and demand improved during the peak season [11] - Trading strategy: In the short term, the market was expected to fluctuate weakly. In the long term, as new devices were put into operation, the supply - demand pattern would become looser. It was recommended to short at high prices or engage in spread trading [11] MEG - Market performance: There were changes in MEG spot prices and basis [11] - Fundamentals: Supply pressure was large after new device launches, and inventory was at a low level. Polyester factory loads were high, and terminal orders improved structurally [11] - Trading strategy: Observe in the short term due to macro - volatility and low inventory. In the long term, short at high prices due to inventory accumulation pressure [11] Crude Oil - Market performance: Oil prices opened higher and then fluctuated, with a weaker rebound compared to other commodities [11] - Fundamentals: Supply increased due to multiple countries' production, and demand decreased seasonally and was affected by trade relations [11] - Trading strategy: Continue to hold short positions in SC crude oil [11] Styrene - Market performance: The main contract continued to decline slightly, with changes in spot prices and trading volume. The import window was closed [12] - Fundamentals: Pure benzene and styrene inventories were at normal or high levels, and downstream demand was weak despite a seasonal increase in operating rates [12] - Trading strategy: In the short term, the market was expected to fluctuate weakly. In the long term, as supply increased, the supply - demand pattern would become looser. It was recommended to short at high prices or engage in spread trading [12] Soda Ash - Market performance: The sa01 contract price decreased by 0.4% [12] - Fundamentals: Supply was high in the fourth quarter, and inventory accumulated during the National Day holiday. Downstream demand from photovoltaic glass had high inventory days [12] - Trading strategy: Observe due to the supply - demand balance [12] Caustic Soda - Market performance: The SH01 contract price decreased by 0.2% [12] - Fundamentals: The purchase price of the main downstream decreased, inventory accumulated, and non - aluminum demand recovery was less than expected [12] - Trading strategy: Observe due to a neutral valuation and seasonal demand recovery [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - Medium to long - term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy, recommend allocating long - term contracts of various varieties on dips; short - term, the market shows signs of cooling [3] - For the bond market, short - term is bullish as the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds at 2.2 is cost - effective; medium to long - term, with increasing risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, suggest hedging T and TL contracts on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On October 13, A - share four major stock indexes adjusted, with Shanghai Composite Index down 0.19% to 3889.5 points, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.93% to 13231.47 points, ChiNext Index down 1.11% to 3078.76 points, and STAR 50 Index up 1.4% to 1473.02 points. Market turnover was 23,742 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,599 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, non - ferrous metals (+3.35%), environmental protection (+1.65%), and steel (+1.49%) led the gains; automobiles (-2.33%), household appliances (-1.74%), and beauty care (-1.58%) led the losses [2] - In terms of market strength, IM > IH > IC > IF, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,682/118/3,628 respectively. In Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of - 151, - 248, - 2, and 400 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +429, +102, - 268, and - 263 billion yuan respectively [2] - For stock index futures, the basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 124.76, 98.56, 21.58, and 4.61 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 13.83%, - 11.13%, - 3.91%, and - 1.29% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 19%, 14%, 23%, and 33% respectively [2] (2) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On October 13, the bond market strengthened. Among active contracts, the implied interest rate of two - year bonds was 1.403, down 0.93 bps from the previous day; five - year bonds was 1.583, down 0.24 bps; ten - year bonds was 1.762, down 1.32 bps; thirty - year bonds was 2.218, down 1.74 bps [3] - For treasury bond futures, the current active contract is the 2512 contract. The CTD bond of the two - year treasury bond futures is 250012.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, corresponding net basis of - 0.002, and IRR of 1.46%; for five - year, the CTD bond is 250003.IB, yield change of - 0.5 bps, net basis of - 0.011, and IRR of 1.51%; for ten - year, the CTD bond is 220019.IB, yield change of +0 bps, net basis of - 0.008, and IRR of 1.5%; for thirty - year, the CTD bond is 210014.IB, yield change of - 1.62 bps, net basis of - 0.11, and IRR of 1.94% [3] - In terms of the money market, the central bank's open - market operations had a currency injection of 1,378 billion yuan and no currency withdrawal, with a net injection of 1,378 billion yuan [3] (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activities, real estate, and infrastructure prosperity are lower than in previous periods [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall commodity market is significantly influenced by geopolitical factors such as the US - China trade war and US tariff policies, and different commodities show different price trends and investment opportunities due to their own supply - demand fundamentals [1][2][3]. - The precious metals market is affected by factors like the Fed's interest - rate policy and geopolitical risks. The basic metals market is affected by supply - demand balance, trade frictions, and other factors. The black industry is influenced by steel and iron ore supply - demand, and macro - political factors. The agricultural product market is affected by factors such as yield, tariff policies, and weather. The energy - chemical market is affected by new device production, demand seasons, and trade frictions [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: The international gold price denominated in London gold rose 1.06% to $4018 per ounce. The US 9 - month CPI release was postponed, and there are uncertainties in the Fed's interest - rate policy. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously due to the possibility of high - level shocks [1]. - **Silver**: It followed gold to reach a new high. The market sentiment increased, and it is recommended to hold with a light position [1]. Basic Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated, affected by Trump's tariff remarks. The supply of copper ore is tight, and it is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum faced downward pressure due to macro - sentiment and weakening demand. It is recommended to partially close long positions or buy put options [1]. - **Alumina**: The short - term trend is dominated by oversupply, and it is recommended to wait and see [1][2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The short - term trend is affected by coking coal and tariffs, and it is expected to oscillate between 8200 - 9300 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is expected to maintain a tight balance in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of Sino - US leadership negotiations and the shutdown of lithium mines in Jiangxi. It is recommended to short at high prices and build small - scale positions [2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the progress of the state - purchase platform and the 11 - 12 spread [2]. - **Tin**: It is expected to oscillate within a range [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited, but there is obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to hold short positions [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand is moderately strong, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures valuation is high, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybeans are weak, but considering the low valuation and policy uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see. The domestic market may rebound, but the medium - term trend depends on Sino - US tariff policies [5]. - **Corn**: The new - crop listing pressure is high, and the futures price is expected to decline oscillatingly [6]. - **Edible Oils**: The unilateral trading of oils is difficult, and the P structure is suitable for reverse spreads. It is necessary to pay attention to the yield in production areas and bio - diesel policies [6]. - **White Sugar**: It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a strategy in the range of 13200 - 13600 yuan/ton [6]. - **Log**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Eggs**: The demand is weakening, and the futures price is expected to decline [7]. - **Hogs**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to decline [7]. Energy - Chemicals - **LLDPE**: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or do reverse spreads [8]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance, and it is recommended to short [8]. - **PTA**: The PX price is expected to decline oscillatingly, and it is recommended to short the processing fee of PTA in the long term [8][9]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to decline significantly in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions [9]. - **Glass**: The spot is okay, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **PP**: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or do reverse spreads [9]. - **MEG**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short at high prices in the long term [9][10]. - **Crude Oil**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions [10]. - **Styrene**: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or do reverse spreads [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is recommended to wait and see [10][11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy, recommend buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips, and note short - term market cooling signs [3] - For treasury bond futures, short - term is bullish as the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds is cost - effective; for medium - and long - term, with rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, suggest hedging T and TL contracts on rallies [4] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On October 10, A - share four major stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.94% to 3897.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.7% to 13355.42 points, the ChiNext Index declined 4.55% to 3113.26 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index decreased 5.61% to 1452.68 points. Market trading volume was 25,341 billion yuan, a decrease of 137.7 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, building materials (+1.92%), coal (+1.37%), and textile and apparel (+1.3%) led the gains; electronics (-4.71%), power equipment (-4.46%), and computers (-3.7%) led the losses [2] - From the perspective of market strength, IM>IH>IF>IC. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2,772/127/2,529 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net capital inflows of - 57.9 billion, - 35.1 billion, 26.6 billion, and 66.3 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 44.3 billion, - 23.1 billion, +17 billion, and +50.4 billion yuan respectively [2] - The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts was 112.02, 87.02, 16.43, and 1.25 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 11.99%, - 9.49%, - 2.87%, and - 0.34% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 28%, 19%, 30%, and 40% respectively [3] - Detailed performance data of various stock index futures contracts (including IC, IF, IH, IM series) are shown in Table 1, including price, trading volume, open interest, basis, etc. [6] 2. Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On October 10, the bond market weakened. The implied interest rates of active contracts such as two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year bonds all increased compared to the previous day [3] - For the current active 2512 contracts, the CTD bonds, yield changes, net basis, and IRR of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are as follows: 2 - year CTD bond is 250012.IB, yield change +1bps, net basis 0.009, IRR 1.38%; 5 - year CTD bond is 250003.IB, yield change +0.75bps, net basis 0.005, IRR 1.39%; 10 - year CTD bond is 220019.IB, yield change +0bps, net basis - 0.002, IRR 1.43%; 30 - year CTD bond is 210014.IB, yield change +1bps, net basis 0.067, IRR 1.17% [4] - In terms of the money market, the central bank's currency injection was 409 billion yuan, currency withdrawal was 600 billion yuan, and the net withdrawal was 191 billion yuan [4] - Detailed performance data of various treasury bond futures contracts (including TS, TF, T, TL series) and some treasury bond spot bonds are shown in Table 2, including price, trading volume, open interest, net basis, and CTD bond implied interest rates [7] 3. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent prosperity of social activities, real estate, and infrastructure is lower than in previous periods [10] - Based on the changes in domestic medium - term data compared with the same period in the past five years (year - on - year month - on - month), the prosperity scores of manufacturing, real estate, social activities, infrastructure, and imports and exports are shown in Figure 2 [11][12]

2025年10月10日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | 3975 市场表现：以伦敦金计价的国际金价下跌 1.58%,收报 美元/盎司;国内方面。 | | | | 金 | 基本面：美联储理事巴尔强调通胀风险、称降息需谨慎；纽约联储行长威廉姆斯表示支持今年进一步降息， | | | | 属 | 并不认为经济处于衰退边缘；美国劳工统计局准备在政府关门期间发布 9 月 CPI 数据；IMF 发布 2025 年 | | 10 | | | 月世界经济展望，全球经济增长预计 2025 年和 年均为 3.3%。国内黄金 ETF 资金流入。COMEX 黄金 | 2026 | | | | 库存 1242 吨，减少 5 吨；上期所黄金库存 70 吨，增加 2.8 吨；伦敦 8 月黄金库存 8830 吨；上期所白银库 | | | | | 存 1186 吨，减少 3 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1172 吨，减少 42 吨，COMEX 白银库存 16362 吨，减少 | | | | | 60 吨；伦敦 8 月白银库存增加 447 吨 ...