Report Summary - The report is an asphalt weekly report from AVIC Futures dated August 22, 2025 [2] - The main view is that this week, the asphalt fundamentals continued the characteristics of weak supply and demand. The supply - side weekly output and operating rate decreased, and the demand - side shipment volume decreased slightly. The refinery inventory still showed a slight accumulation, while the social inventory decreased. The crude oil price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and the asphalt price is dominated by crude oil fluctuations. It is recommended to track geopolitical changes [6][62] - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the range of 3450 - 3600 yuan/ton for the BU2510 contract [6] Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors for asphalt include low refinery inventory and marginal macro - improvement [9] - Bearish factors include lower - than - expected demand and insufficient upward drive on the cost side [9] Macroeconomic Analysis - The results of the meetings between the US and Russia, and the US and European countries basically met market expectations, and geopolitical risks weakened. However, the progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations still needs to be tracked [10] - The risk of "secondary tariffs" has subsided. Trump said he would not impose secondary tariffs on China for the time being, and India decided to continue buying Russian oil [11] Data Analysis Supply - As of August 22, the domestic asphalt weekly output was 548,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from last week. Some refineries in Shandong switched to producing residual oil, and some refineries in East China had intermittent shutdowns [12] - As of August 20, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 30.7%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the previous statistical period. The operating rates in East China and Shandong decreased significantly [22] Demand - As of August 22, the domestic asphalt weekly shipment volume was 391,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from last week. The demand weakened due to rainfall [23] - As of August 22, the domestic modified asphalt weekly capacity utilization rate was 16.99%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points from last week. Except for Southwest and South China, the capacity utilization rates in other regions remained stable [26] Import and Export - In July, domestic asphalt imports were 380,500 tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 16.53%. The cumulative imports from January to July were 2.1055 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.5% [31] - In July, domestic asphalt exports were 55,700 tons, an increase of 26,200 tons from the previous month. The cumulative exports from January to July were 334,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 46.45% [36] Inventory - As of August 22, the refinery inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 716,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous week. The refinery shipments were poor due to the impact of rainfall on demand [46] - As of August 22, the domestic asphalt social inventory was 1.292 million tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons from the previous week. The decrease was due to weak downstream demand and reduced refinery output [53] Spread - As of August 22, the domestic asphalt processing diluted weekly profit was - 474.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.3 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of August 20, the asphalt - to - crude - oil ratio was 54.97, and as of August 21, the asphalt basis was 255 yuan/ton. The asphalt cracking spread remained stable [60]

Report Summary - During the period from August 20th to August 26th, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared to the previous period. High precipitation areas north of the equator were mainly concentrated in southern Thailand and southwestern Cambodia, affecting rubber tapping. South of the equator, high precipitation areas were in eastern Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, also affecting tapping [5]. - This week, the rubber market showed narrow - range fluctuations. The domestic stock market reached new highs, but had limited impact on the commodity market. As the 09 - contract delivery approached, the real - end weight of commodity trading increased. The rubber fundamentals were neutral, with short - term inventory pressure and stable downstream tire开工率 [6]. Market Focus Bullish Factors - Weather disturbances stabilized rubber raw material prices, providing cost support [10]. - The inventory structure of all - steel tire enterprises improved, and their开工率 was good [10]. Bearish Factors - The capacity utilization of semi - steel tire enterprises was limited by inventory [10]. - There was inventory accumulation pressure in some rubber inventories [10]. Data Analysis Natural Rubber Raw Material Prices - As of August 21st, Thai fresh glue was 54.7 Thai baht/kg, cup rubber was 49.2 Thai baht/kg, Yunnan glue in China was 14,200 yuan/ton, and Hainan glue was 13,200 yuan/ton. Rain in major producing areas boosted prices slightly, supporting rubber costs [11]. Natural Rubber Inventory - As of the week of August 15th, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1,285,363 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,504 tons. Qingdao Free Trade Zone inventory increased by 1,598 tons, while Qingdao general trade inventory decreased by 4,719 tons [14]. Butadiene Price - This week, the domestic butadiene price fluctuated in a narrow range. Due to some device maintenance and reduced production, output decreased. Although inventory increased due to ship arrivals, supply pressure was not obvious. As of August 21st, the delivered price in Shandong was 9,400 - 9,450 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was 9,100 - 9,200 yuan/ton. As of August 22nd, the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 324.8671 yuan/ton [15]. Butadiene Rubber Supply - Demand - As of the week of August 22nd, the in - factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 23,200 tons, a decrease of 250 tons from last week, and the trader inventory was 7,410 tons, an increase of 420 tons. High - cis butadiene rubber production was 27,765 tons, an increase of 1,860 tons from last week. The overall supply - demand structure was relatively loose [18]. Tire Enterprise Capacity Utilization - As of the week of August 22nd, the capacity utilization of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a week - on - week increase of 2.35% and a year - on - year increase of 7.01%. The average inventory - available days were 39.76 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.25 days and a year - on - year decrease of 3.92 days. For semi - steel tire sample enterprises, the capacity utilization was 71.87%, a week - on - week increase of 2.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81%. The in - factory inventory - available days were 47.05 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.32 days and a year - on - year increase of 10.57 days [19]. Contract Spreads - As of August 21st, the spread of the "RU - NR" September contract remained stable as the delivery month approached, and the spread of the "NR - BR" main contract fluctuated in a narrow range after the main contract change [21]. Market Outlook - From a macro perspective, the domestic stock market reaching new highs had limited impact on the commodity market, and the real - end weight of commodity trading increased as the 09 - contract delivery approached. - Fundamentally, raw material prices were stable, with rain in major producing areas providing limited price support. Qingdao Free Trade Zone inventory increased, and overall social inventory rose. All - steel tire开工率 continued to rise, while semi - steel tire capacity utilization increased slightly with slow inventory reduction. - Overall, the rubber fundamentals were neutral, with short - term inventory pressure and stable downstream tire开工率. Currently, there were no obvious fundamental contradictions, and prices fluctuated within a range [25].

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices showed a wide - range oscillation, not continuing the previous weak trend, and the price fluctuation range decreased compared with last week. The results of the meetings between the US President and the Russian President, as well as European leaders, met market expectations, reducing concerns about increased supply. The unexpected decline in US EIA crude oil inventories and seasonal improvement in demand supported oil prices. The market's consensus on shale oil cost support strongly supported WTI crude oil around $60 per barrel. After short - term negative factors materialized, geopolitical risks weakened, and the market focused on the crude oil fundamentals. With the unexpected decline in IEA crude oil inventories, strong demand, and cost support, the downside of oil prices was limited, and a technical rebound might occur. Attention should be paid to the support of WTI crude oil at $60 per barrel [8][49]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Report Abstract - The results of the US - Russia and US - Europe meetings met market expectations, and the Fed's meeting minutes showed increased divergence among the Federal Open Market Committee on the monetary policy path. The EIA crude oil inventory decreased more than expected. Key data included a 6.014 - million - barrel decrease in US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending August 15, a 0.419 - million - barrel increase in EIA Cushing crude oil inventory, and a 0.223 - million - barrel increase in EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory [7]. 2. Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: EIA crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, and shale oil cost provided support [11]. - **Bearish factors**: The expectation of the consumption peak season faded, and the relationship between the US and Russia eased [11]. 3. Macro Analysis - **US - Russia and US - Europe meetings**: The meetings between the US and Russia, as well as the US and Europe, met market expectations, and geopolitical risks weakened. The results were neutral, neither intensifying the situation nor reaching a comprehensive agreement. Continued tracking of the Russia - Ukraine negotiation progress was needed [12]. - **Fed's meeting minutes**: The Fed's meeting minutes in July showed increased divergence among Federal Reserve officials. The minutes had limited impact on the market, and the market focused on Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting [13]. - **"Secondary tariff" risk**: The risk of "secondary tariffs" subsided. Trump said he would not impose secondary tariffs on China for now, and India decided to continue buying Russian oil [14]. 4. Data Analysis - **Supply**: OPEC's production increased month - on - month in July but was still lower than the production increase plan. The daily output increased by 263,000 barrels to 27.54 million barrels. The main contributors to the increase were Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while Iran's production decreased. US domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels per day to 13.382 million barrels per day, increasing the supply pressure. The number of US oil rigs increased by 1 [15][17][19]. - **Demand**: US crude oil consumption demand and gasoline demand increased month - on - month. The US refinery utilization rate remained high, with limited room for further increase. China's state - owned refinery utilization rate might have reached its peak, while the independent refinery utilization rate was in a climbing cycle. The profit of state - owned refineries decreased month - on - month, while that of independent refineries increased slightly [25][26][31]. - **Inventory**: US EIA crude oil inventory decreased month - on - month, while the strategic petroleum reserve inventory continued to accumulate. The Cushing area's crude oil inventory increased slightly, and the gasoline inventory decreased. It was expected that the gasoline inventory would enter a destocking cycle [41][45]. - **Crack spread**: The US crude oil crack spread increased month - on - month, reaching a new high this year, indicating the continued recovery of US refined oil consumption [46]. 5.后市研判 - The conclusion was consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that the downside of oil prices was limited, and a technical rebound might occur. Attention should be paid to the support of WTI crude oil at $60 per barrel [49].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an aluminum industry weekly report, covering market conditions from multiple aspects including macro - economy, supply and demand [5] Group 2: Bull - Bear Focus Bullish Factors - There are signs of improvement in overall consumer spending and aluminum production is gradually resolving power - related issues [8] - The domestic spot price has shifted from a discount to par [46] Bearish Factors - The US PPI is expected to continue to decline and social inventories may exceed expectations [8] Group 3: Data Analysis Macroeconomic Data - US July CPI was 2.7% year - on - year, core CPI was 3.1% year - on - year, and PPI soared 0.9% year - on - year and month - on - month. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September are high but there is still room for debate [10] - China has introduced multiple policies to boost consumption, such as personal and service - sector loan subsidy policies, and 188 billion yuan of investment subsidies for equipment upgrades have been allocated [14] Supply - side Data - From January to July 2025, China's bauxite production was 35.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.21%. In July, it was 5.4345 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.42%. However, due to the rainy season in Guinea, future imports may decline [16][18] - Alumina supply has an excess expectation. Overseas prices are falling, and domestic prices are oscillating weakly [22][24] - In July 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In August, the output was 3.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. But the growth space is limited [26] Demand - side Data - Affected by the off - season, the operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises is declining. However, the automobile industry is booming, with new energy vehicle production in July 2025 reaching 1.176 million units, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The real estate market is still bottoming out [32][36][38] Inventory Data - LME aluminum inventories are rising, while SHFE aluminum inventories are falling. Aluminum ingot social inventories are accumulating, but the current level is relatively low [41][44] Price and Cost Data - The cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is relatively stable, and it is expected to maintain a profit of over 3,000 yuan per ton in the second half of the year [29] - The price of aluminum alloy futures tends to follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum futures [57] Group 4: Future Outlook - Aluminum prices have good support below, and attention should be paid to the support at the 40 - day moving average of 20,600 [59]

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Report Institution: AVIC Futures [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The copper market shows a complex situation with both supply - side and demand - side factors at play. Short - term copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with a support level at 78,000 [5][48]. - There is still room for debate on whether the Fed will cut interest rates in September [9]. Summary by Directory 01 Report Summary - The report analyzes the copper market from multiple aspects including macro - economic data, supply and demand fundamentals, and inventory changes. It concludes that short - term copper prices will remain volatile with a support level at 78,000 [5][48]. 02 Multi - empty Focus Bullish Factors - Domestic TC is low and stable, and the accumulation of social inventories is limited [7]. - The continuous implementation of domestic growth - stabilizing policies, such as consumption loan subsidies and investment in special bonds, is expected to boost copper demand [12][14]. Bearish Factors - The US PPI data shows that inflation may be more persistent, which slightly reduces the market's expectation of a September interest - rate cut. There are significant differences within the Fed on whether to cut interest rates [9]. 03 Data Analysis Macroeconomic Data - US inflation data shows that in July, CPI was lower than expected while core CPI was pulled up by commodities. The PPI soared both year - on - year and month - on - month, exceeding market expectations [9]. - China's domestic growth - stabilizing policies continue to be implemented, including consumer loan subsidies and investment in special bonds [14]. Supply - side Data - China's copper ore imports in July remained stable. The import volume of copper ore and concentrates in July was 2.56 million tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to July was 17.314 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8% [15][16]. - The tightness at the mine end continues. The domestic copper concentrate spot processing fee remains low and stable. Overseas supply - side disturbances have increased slightly, but some situations have subsided [18][19]. - The output of electrolytic copper remains at a high level. In July, the output of SMM China electrolytic copper increased by 39,400 tons month - on - month, a rise of 3.47% and a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. SMM expects a slight decline in domestic refined copper output in August [21][22]. - China's scrap copper imports in June decreased slightly. The import volume was 183,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% and a year - on - year increase of 8.49%. The supply from Thailand increased, while that from the US decreased significantly [24][25]. Demand - side Data - The power sector is growing rapidly. As of the end of June, the country's cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2% [31][32]. - The demand for copper in the real estate sector remains weak. From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year, and various real estate indicators such as construction area and new - start area also declined [33][34]. - The automobile industry maintains high - level prosperity. In July, the output of new energy vehicles was 1.176 million, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%, and the cumulative output from January to July was 8.049 million, a year - on - year increase of 32.9%. The output of automobiles in July was 2.51 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%, and the cumulative output from January to July was 18.075 million, a year - on - year increase of 10.5% [36][38]. - The production schedule of home appliances is still decreasing year - on - year, but the decline in August is expected to narrow. The total production schedule of air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August was 26.97 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9% [39][41]. Inventory Data - Copper inventories in various regions have increased. LME copper inventories have slowed down in the rate of accumulation, SHFE copper inventories have slightly increased, COMEX inventories have continued to accumulate, and domestic spot electrolytic copper inventories have also increased slightly [42][43]. Price Data - The premium of domestic copper spot has widened, and the premium or discount of foreign copper has also widened. On August 14, the spot premium of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper was around 170 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount was around - 88.75 US dollars/ton [45]. 04后市研判 - Short - term copper prices will continue to fluctuate, with a support level at 78,000 [48].

Report Summary - The report provides an in - depth analysis of the asphalt market for the week of August 11 - 15, 2025, covering macro - analysis, multi - empty focus, data analysis, and future market outlook [7][60] - It is recommended to focus on the BU2510 contract in the range of 3400 - 3550 yuan/ton [7][60] Key Points from Different Sections 1. Market Focus and Macro - analysis - **Macro - events**: The US and Russian presidents are set to meet on August 15 in Anchorage, Alaska. Trump estimates a 25% risk of meeting failure and threatens sanctions if issues remain unresolved. Putin acknowledges US efforts for peace. The market has fully priced in the meeting, and different outcomes may lead to various oil price movements [6][11] - **Energy Outlook**: OPEC maintains this year's oil demand growth forecast and raises next year's. IEA raises supply growth forecasts and lowers demand growth forecasts. EIA lowers oil price forecasts for this and next year and expects a tightening US crude market [12] 2. Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: Low factory inventory and marginal macro - improvement [10] - **Bearish factors**: Below - expected demand and downward cost - side drivers [10] 3. Data Analysis - **Supply**: As of August 15, the weekly asphalt production was 58.8 tons, up 3 tons from last week. As of August 13, the开工 rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 32.9%, up 1.2 percentage points [13][22] - **Demand**: As of August 15, the weekly asphalt shipment was 40.20 tons, down 1.6 tons. The capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt was 17.10%, up 1.23 percentage points [23][26] - **Import and Export**: In June, asphalt imports were 37.57 tons, down 2.2 tons month - on - month and up 32.56% year - on - year. Exports were 2.97 tons, down 2.56 tons month - on - month [33][36] - **Inventory**: As of August 15, factory inventory was 71.1 tons, up 3.2 tons week - on - week, and social inventory was 134.3 tons, down 2.4 tons [47][54] - **Spread**: As of August 15, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing dilution was - 465.4 yuan/ton, up 138.6 yuan/ton. The asphalt - to - crude ratio was 55.83 on August 13, and the asphalt basis was 258 yuan/ton on August 14 [58] 4. Future Market Outlook - The asphalt market shows a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand this week. The overall inventory is increasing, and downstream demand remains weak. Crude oil lacks bullish support in the short term, and its fluctuations will dominate the asphalt market. Geopolitical changes should be tracked [7][60]

Report Summary - The crude oil price continued its weak trend this week, showing an overall oscillating and weak pattern. The market is waiting for the results of the meeting between the US and Russian presidents. If the US relaxes sanctions on Russia's energy sector, it will strengthen the expectation of global crude oil supply surplus. Additionally, the unexpected inventory build - up in US API and EIA crude oil indicates a fading of the consumption peak season in the third quarter. With the gradual increase in crude oil supply in the fourth quarter and the weakening consumption expectation on the demand side, the pressure of crude oil supply surplus will increase. In the short term, geopolitical risks dominate market fluctuations, and the market focuses on the meeting between the US and Russian presidents. Oil prices may continue the weak trend, and the shale oil cost provides support, with limited downside space. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of WTI crude oil at $60 per barrel [7][51]. - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the $60 - $65 per barrel range of WTI crude oil prices [8]. Multi - Empty Focus Bullish Factors - Geopolitical risks and the fact that the actual increase in OPEC+ production is lower than the plan [11]. Bearish Factors - Weakening support on the demand side and the potential easing of US - Russia relations [11]. Macroeconomic Analysis US - Russia Presidential Meeting - Trump announced on August 8 that he would meet with Russian President Putin on August 15 in Anchorage, Alaska, USA, which was further confirmed by Ushakov on August 9. The meeting will start at 22:30 Moscow time (03:30 Beijing time on the 16th). Trump said the risk of the meeting failing was 25%, and he would impose sanctions if problems were not resolved. Putin said the US government is making positive efforts. The market has fully priced in the meeting, and if no agreement is reached, oil prices may rebound; if an agreement is reached, it may lead to a phased rebound or further suppression of oil prices depending on the situation [12]. CPI and PPI Data - In July, the US CPI was in line with expectations overall, with a year - on - year increase of 2.7% and a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. Core CPI was slightly higher than expected. After the CPI release, traders increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in September, with a 95% probability. The July PPI was higher than expected, with a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [16]. Energy Outlook of Three Major Energy Agencies - OPEC maintained the forecast of this year's crude oil demand growth and raised the forecast for next year, expecting a 138 - million - barrel - per - day increase in global oil demand in 2026. IEA raised the forecast of global oil supply growth and lowered the forecast of demand growth for 2025 and 2026. EIA lowered the oil price forecast for this year and next year and expected a tightening of the US crude oil market [17]. Data Analysis Supply - OPEC's oil production in July increased by 263,000 barrels per day to 27.54 million barrels per day, mainly contributed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but still lower than the production increase plan [18]. - As of the week ending August 8, US domestic crude oil production increased by 43,000 barrels per day to 13.327 million barrels per day, and it is expected to maintain a low - level operation due to profit pressure [20]. - As of the week ending August 8, the total number of US oil rigs was 411, an increase of 1 from the previous period. It has been on a downward trend since April, and is expected to remain at a low level [22]. Demand - As of the week ending August 8, US crude oil implied demand increased by 134,000 barrels per day, while gasoline implied demand decreased by 161,300 barrels per day. The US refinery utilization rate was 96.4%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous period, with limited room for further increase [28][29]. - As of August 14, the operating rate of China's major refineries was 82.65%, up 0.26 percentage points, and that of local refineries was 56.55%, up 0.36 percentage points. Major refineries still have room to increase production, and local refineries are expected to enter a production - climbing cycle in early September [34]. - As of August 15, the comprehensive refining profit of China's major refineries was 832.6 yuan per ton, down 106.23 yuan per ton, while that of local refineries was 367.21 yuan per ton, up 136.31 yuan per ton [38]. Inventory - As of the week ending August 8, US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 3.036 million barrels, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 226,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory increased slightly, and gasoline inventory decreased by 7.92 million barrels [43][47]. Crack Spread - As of August 13, the US crude oil crack spread was $20.89 per barrel, up from the previous week, indicating a recovery in US refined oil consumption [48]. Market Outlook - This week, crude oil prices continued the weak trend. In the short term, geopolitical risks dominate market fluctuations. If the meeting results meet market expectations, oil prices may continue to be weak, with limited downside space due to shale oil cost support. If the results exceed market expectations, it will indicate the next - stage trend of oil prices [51].

Report Summary - There is no specific investment rating provided for the industry in the report [2] - The core view of the report is that in the aluminum industry, the overall supply and demand situation is complex. The supply side shows different trends in various links such as bauxite, alumina, and electrolytic aluminum, while the demand side is affected by factors like consumption expectations and seasonal patterns. The market is also influenced by macro - economic factors such as the Fed's interest rate expectations and domestic economic data [8][36] Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: The overall fluctuation of power information and the Fed's rate - cut expectation continue to rise, affecting market sentiment. The consumption expectation is not overly pessimistic [8] - **Bearish factors**: The water - discount range has expanded, and inventory has climbed. The US employment data has weakened, and the inventory has risen [8][9] Data Analysis Bauxite - In June 2025, domestic bauxite production was 5.1933 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 173,100 tons but a year - on - year increase of 203,600 tons. The daily output was 173,100 tons, remaining flat month - on - month. In July, the domestic bauxite market was stable, but rainfall in major producing areas restricted production. The procurement price in Shanxi remained stable [18] - In May, over 40 mining enterprises in Guinea had their mining licenses revoked. However, a mining enterprise resumed production, changing the supply from a tight - balance expectation to an oversupply expectation. In the first half of the year, China's bauxite imports increased by 26.086 million tons year - on - year to 103.403 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 33.74%. The port inventory also increased. Although the subsequent imports may decline due to the rainy season, the price is expected to have limited rebound [22] Alumina - As of late July, the national alumina production capacity was 113.02 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from late June. The operating capacity was 94.95 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons from late June, reaching a new high for the year. The operating rate was 84.01%, a 1.5 - percentage - point increase [25] - In June 2025, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month decrease of 17.7% but a year - on - year increase of 8.8%. From January to June, the cumulative export was 1.343 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.7%. In June, the import was 101,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50% and a year - on - year increase of 168.4%. From January to June, the cumulative import was 268,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 77.4%. The net export in June was 69,700 tons, and the cumulative net export from January to June was 1.075 million tons. The import volume may increase in the second half of the year [25] Electrolytic Aluminum - The growth space of domestic electrolytic aluminum production is limited. The capacity utilization rate has exceeded 95%. From January to June, the cumulative production was 21.6948 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. In June, the production was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57% but a month - on - month decrease of 3.23% [29] - As of late July, the national electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.232 million tons, a monthly increase of 25,000 tons. The operating capacity was 44.214 million tons, a monthly increase of 55,000 tons, and the operating rate was 97.8% [29] - Electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a profit of over 3,000 yuan per ton in the second half of the year due to limited new capacity, high capacity utilization rate, rigid supply, and low inventory [32] Downstream - In the off - season, downstream demand returns to the rigid - demand rhythm. In July, the average operating rate of aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.7%, a 1.3% month - on - month decline [36] - In the first half of the year, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity exceeded 200GW, but the installation slowed down in June. The new installed capacity in June was 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% [40] - From January to June, the national real estate development investment was 4.6658 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. Other real estate indicators such as construction area, new construction area, and completion area also showed declines [44] Inventory - Last week, LME aluminum inventory rebounded to 469,500 tons. As of the week of August 1, SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 1,737 tons to 117,500 tons [48] - As of August 7, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 549,000 tons, a 2,000 - ton increase from Monday. The inventory is still at a relatively low level, and the exchange warehouse receipt inventory has declined to around 43,000 tons, supporting the aluminum price [52] Price and Import - On August 7, the average price of Shanghai Wumaoh aluminum had a discount of - 60 yuan per ton, with the discount range expanding. The LME aluminum 0 - 3 discount was 0.65 dollars per ton, with the discount range narrowing [56] - China's scrap aluminum imports in August may decrease month - on - month due to intense overseas competition, geopolitical conflicts, and positive domestic refined - scrap aluminum price differences [60] Aluminum Alloys - The production capacity operating rate of China's primary aluminum alloy increased compared to last week, with a daily full - cost production cost of 20,400 yuan per ton [64] - The production capacity operating rate of China's recycled aluminum alloy remained the same as last week. The daily full - cost production cost of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 19,950 yuan per ton, and the profit was negative [68] - As of August 8, China's weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy was 48,400 tons, a 2,400 - ton increase from last week. The in - factory inventory was 60,700 tons, a 3,300 - ton decrease from last week [72] 后市研判 - Aluminum alloy futures prices will follow the upward trend of electrolytic aluminum futures [74] - For SHFE aluminum, the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season is approaching, and the consumption expectation is not overly pessimistic. The 60 - day moving average of 20,400 provides support [77]

Report Summary - The retail sales of the national passenger car market in July were 1.826 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 12.4%. The cumulative retail sales since this year were 12.728 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. The market showed a high-base deceleration feature and followed a "low at the beginning, high in the middle, and flat at the end" trend [5]. - The rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased slightly compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, high-precipitation areas were mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar and sporadic areas in southern Cambodia, while precipitation in most other areas was low, which had a greater impact on rubber tapping. In the southern hemisphere, high-precipitation areas were mainly distributed in eastern Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and rainfall in most other areas was at a medium level, which had a weaker impact on rubber tapping [5]. - The global manufacturing purchasing managers' index in July was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The resilience of the global manufacturing industry weakened compared with the previous month and continued to operate weakly [5]. - In July 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 634,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.84% and a year-on-year increase of 3.43%. The cumulative imports from January to July were 4.709 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 20.77% [5]. - The price of natural rubber raw materials remained stable. The supply-demand structure of natural rubber was relatively loose. The price of butadiene, the raw material for butadiene rubber, fluctuated within a narrow range. The inventory of butadiene rubber plants increased slightly. The operating rate of tire enterprises remained stable [5]. - This week, the rubber futures market maintained a volatile trend. As the premium of macro sentiment faded and the internal contradictions in the fundamentals were not obvious, there was no clear trend guidance and the amplitude narrowed. The overall rubber demand had support at the bottom but faced pressure at the top. The cost support of rubber remained stable. The inventory pressure was greater than that of the same period last year but the increase was relatively limited. Overall, the fundamentals of rubber were moderately weak, mainly due to the expectation of increased supply in the future. With overseas tariffs in effect, there was no obvious increase in tire demand. The weak expectation made it difficult for prices to break through the upside, and prices continued to fluctuate within a range. External macro disturbances were likely to widen the price fluctuation range [5]. Multi-Empty Focus Bullish Factors - The "anti-involution" related industry bill in China provided policy guidance for prices [8]. - The inventory structure of all-steel tire enterprises improved and the operating rate was good [8]. Bearish Factors - The inventory reduction of semi-steel tires was not obvious [8]. - Rubber imports increased [8]. - Global manufacturing data was weak [8]. Data Analysis Natural Rubber Raw Material Prices - As of August 7, the price of fresh latex in Thailand was 54 Thai baht per kilogram; the price of cup lump was 48.3 Thai baht per kilogram; the price of latex in Yunnan, China was 14,000 yuan per ton; and the price of latex in Hainan was 13,100 yuan per ton. This week, raw material prices showed little fluctuation. The impact of weather in the main rubber producing areas weakened, and prices remained stable in the short term. Cost support remained stable [9]. Natural Rubber Supply-Demand Structure - As of August 1, the spot inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 75,472 tons, continuing the destocking trend since mid-May and increasing by 13,730 tons compared with the same period last year. The spot inventory of general trade was 556,298 tons, showing a slow inventory accumulation trend since the beginning of the year and increasing by 142,534 tons compared with the same period last year. The third-party inventory in China was 1,288,849 tons, fluctuating within a narrow range this year and increasing by 73,929 tons compared with last year. Overall, the rubber supply-demand structure this year was relatively loose [12]. Butadiene Price for Butadiene Rubber - This week, the domestic butadiene market showed a slight upward trend with limited increase. Although there were sporadic plant restarts during the week, there were plant overhauls in Shandong and South China, resulting in a decline in production. At the same time, the restarted plant in Shandong had no spot for external sales, and the commissioning of new产能 in the Northeast was postponed. The supply did not increase as expected, which supported the positive sentiment of merchants. Recently, the operating rates of downstream industries were acceptable, and the phased buying boosted the trading volume. The suppliers of butadiene raised prices, driving the market to rise slightly. However, due to the impact of the downstream product trends, the market increase was limited. As of the week of August 8, 2025, the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 406.2857 yuan per ton. The price of butadiene rubber was weak and the corporate profits were under pressure [13]. Butadiene Rubber Inventory - As of the week of August 8, the inventory of butadiene rubber plants was 24,150 tons, an increase of 350 tons from last week. The inventory of traders was 7,290 tons, a decrease of 230 tons from last week. This week, traders reduced inventory slightly while plant inventory increased. The overall inventory structure was loose [15]. Tire Enterprise Operating Rates - As of the week of August 8, the capacity utilization rate of all-steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, a month-on-month increase of 0.80% and a year-on-year increase of 0.73%. The average inventory turnover days of sample enterprises were 39.37 days, a month-on-month decrease of 0.08 days and a year-on-year decrease of 3.66 days. The inventory pressure of all-steel tire enterprises was alleviated and the operating rate remained stable. The capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.27% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.93%. The average inventory turnover days of sample enterprises were 46.45 days, a month-on-month increase of 0.81 days and a year-on-year increase of 9.50 days. The inventory reduction of semi-steel tire enterprises remained difficult, which restricted the enthusiasm of enterprises to start production [17]. Futures Contract Spreads - As of August 7, the spread of the September "RU - NR" contract showed a strong volatile trend; the spread of the September "NR - BR" contract fluctuated within a range [19]. Market Outlook - From the perspective of the downstream tire demand for rubber, the export performance of all-steel tires has been excellent this year, which has reduced the inventory accumulation pressure in factories and boosted the operating rate of enterprises. However, the slow inventory reduction of semi-steel tire enterprises has suppressed the recovery of the operating rate. Overall, rubber demand has support at the bottom but faces pressure at the top. - The impact of weather in the main rubber producing areas has weakened, and raw material prices have remained stable in the short term, providing stable cost support. - As overseas supply recovers, rubber imports continue to increase. The inventory pressure is greater than that of the same period last year, but the increase is relatively limited. - Overall, the fundamentals of rubber are moderately weak, mainly due to the expectation of increased supply in the future. With overseas tariffs in effect, there is no obvious increase in tire demand. The weak expectation makes it difficult for prices to break through the upside, and prices will continue to fluctuate within a range. External macro disturbances are likely to widen the price fluctuation range [23].

Report Summary - The overall trend of crude oil prices this week was a one - way downward movement. The market is worried about the US economic recession due to the lower - than - expected July non - farm employment data and the significant downward revision of May and June data. The demand - side support is gradually fading. The possible meeting between the US and Russian presidents eases the concern about Russian sanctions, and the previous premium has declined. OPEC+ will continue to increase production in September, intensifying the supply pressure. It is expected that the oil price will continue to be in a weak and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the support of WTI crude oil at $60 per barrel [8][54]. - It is recommended to focus on the range of $60 - 66 per barrel for WTI crude oil prices [9]. Multi - empty Focus Bullish Factors - Geopolitical risks [12] - The actual increase in OPEC+ production is lower than the plan [12] Bearish Factors - The weakening of demand - side support [12] - The easing of US - Russia relations [12] Macro Analysis US - Russia Relations - Trump threatened to impose sanctions on Russia, shortening the original 50 - day deadline to 10 days. The US Middle East envoy had a constructive meeting with Putin in Moscow. Trump plans to hold a US - Russia - Ukraine summit soon, and preparations for the "Putin - Trump meeting" are underway. The initial threat of sanctions supported the oil price, but the subsequent push for high - level meetings eased market tension, and the risk premium declined [13]. US Non - farm Data - In July, the US non - farm employment increased by 73,000, significantly lower than the expected 104,000, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downward. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September increased from 45% to 75%. This situation has led to concerns about the weakening of the US economy and put pressure on oil prices [16]. US Tariffs on India - Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% additional tariff on Indian goods because India imports Russian oil. India said it would continue to buy Russian oil. This move will have a limited impact on global crude oil supply [17]. OPEC+ Production Adjustment - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. The market has fully priced in this increase. The key lies in the speed and scale of the increase. It is expected that this round of production increase will be completed by the end of the fourth quarter. OPEC+ still has nearly 3.65 million barrels per day of production cuts that can be restored [21]. Data Analysis Supply - OPEC's crude oil production in June was 27.237 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 221,000 barrels per day, mainly contributed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. However, the production is still lower than the increase plan [22]. - As of the week ending August 1, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 30,000 barrels per day to 13.284 million barrels per day, and it is expected to remain at a low level [24]. - As of the week ending August 1, the total number of US oil rigs was 410, a decrease of 5 from the previous period. It is expected to continue to decline due to low oil prices [26]. Demand - As of the week ending August 1, US crude oil implied demand increased by 1.329 million barrels per day, while gasoline implied demand decreased by 54,000 barrels per day. The overall demand is around the average in recent years [30]. - As of the week ending August 1, the US refinery utilization rate was 96.9%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous period. It is at a high level in recent years, and there is limited room for further improvement [32]. - As of August 7, the operating rate of domestic major refineries in China was 82.39%, unchanged from the previous period. The operating rate of local independent refineries was 56.19%, down 0.66 percentage points. Major refineries still have room to increase production, and local refineries are expected to enter a production - increasing cycle in early September [37]. - As of August 8, the comprehensive refining profit of domestic major refineries was 938.85 yuan per ton, down 38.11 yuan per ton from the previous period. The comprehensive refining profit of local independent refineries was 230.95 yuan per ton, down 5.78 yuan per ton. Major refineries' profits have recovered to a high level in recent years, while local refineries' profits remain low [41]. Inventory - As of the week ending August 1, US EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 3.029 million barrels, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories were 235,000 barrels. Crude oil inventories are expected to remain low [46]. - As of the week ending August 1, the crude oil inventory in Cushing increased slightly, and gasoline inventory decreased. Gasoline inventory is expected to enter a downward cycle [50]. Crack Spread - As of August 6, the US crude oil crack spread was $20.14 per barrel, up from the previous week, indicating a recovery in US refined oil consumption [51]. Market Outlook - In the short term, after the bullish factors of sanctions fade, the market will return to fundamental trading. With the weakening of demand - side support and the increase in OPEC+ production, the oil price may decline further. The cost of shale oil will support the price, and the oil price is expected to continue a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the support of WTI at $60 per barrel [54].