1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward trend of gold has not ended, and price fluctuations may intensify in the fourth quarter. Before the expected interest rate cut by the Fed in October, gold prices will benefit from the interest rate cut drive. After the cut in October, there will be more market games regarding interest rate cut expectations, Sino - US relations, and geopolitics, which may increase price volatility [6]. - Interest rate cut trading and a weak US dollar are still favorable for gold prices. The market has strengthened the trading of Fed interest rate cuts, and the Fed expects two more cuts this year. The US dollar will maintain a low - level oscillation pattern, which is beneficial for gold [6]. - Uncertainties in the economy and politics have boosted the safe - haven property of gold. Since August, geopolitical situations such as the suspension of Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the escalation of the Middle - East situation have intensified, and there are also uncertainties in US tariff policies, Fed independence, and fiscal debt, continuously driving up the demand for gold [6]. - Central banks' gold purchases continue, and ETF inflows are accelerating. Central banks around the world have been net buyers of gold for 14 consecutive quarters, and European and American gold ETFs have accelerated their inflows. The People's Bank of China has also increased its gold holdings for 10 consecutive months. However, the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict may affect future central bank gold - buying behavior [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 After - market Judgment - Since the third quarter, gold has oscillated strongly and reached new historical highs, mainly driven by the increasing expectation of Fed interest rate cuts. In the fourth quarter, the probability of an interest rate cut by the Fed in October is high, and before that, gold prices will benefit from this. After the cut, price fluctuations may intensify [6]. - Interest rate cut trading and a weak US dollar are positive for gold prices. The Fed's expected two more interest rate cuts this year and the low - level oscillation of the US dollar are favorable factors [6]. - Geopolitical uncertainties such as the suspension of Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the escalation of the Middle - East situation, as well as uncertainties in the US economy and policies, have increased the safe - haven demand for gold [6]. - Central banks' continuous gold purchases and the acceleration of ETF inflows support the rise in gold prices, but the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict may be a risk factor [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect - **Employment data**: In August, the US non - farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, far less than the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The non - farm payrolls data for the past two months were revised down by a total of 21,000. The annual non - farm employment from March 2025 was revised down by 911,000, indicating a weakening employment market and strengthening the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts [8]. - **Inflation data**: In August, the US PPI unexpectedly declined, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, the first negative value in four months. The CPI and core CPI data were in line with expectations, and inflation control did not hinder the September interest rate cut [8]. - **Interest rate decision**: On September 17, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%. After the meeting, the probability of a rate cut in October exceeded 90%, and the Fed expected two more cuts this year, although there were differences among members [12]. - **Geopolitical situation**: In the Middle - East, Israeli military air - strikes in Lebanon and the US's veto of the UN Security Council's cease - fire resolution in Palestine - Israel have increased tensions. In Europe, there is a border stand - off between Poland and Russia, and the suspension of Russia - Ukraine peace talks has also added uncertainty. In addition, the risk of a US government shutdown has increased market risks [16][17][18]. - **US dollar trend**: Before September, the US dollar index continued to decline due to the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts. After the Fed meeting, the US dollar rebounded. Overall, it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern, and future trends depend on US economic data, especially employment data [21]. - **Economic performance**: The US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI was in line with expectations, while the service and composite PMIs were lower than expected. The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI was below the boom - bust line. The US retail sales and consumer spending were strong, and the second - quarter GDP was revised upwards [25]. 3.3 Fundamental Aspect - **Central bank gold purchases**: In 2023 and 2024, central banks around the world had large - scale gold purchases. In July 2025, global official gold reserves increased by 10 tons, and the People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 10 consecutive months as of August [29]. - **Gold ETF inflows**: In August, global physical gold ETFs had an inflow of $5.5 billion, with North American and European funds being the main drivers. As of September 29, the持仓 of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased compared to the end of August [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Anti - involution policies will continue throughout the 15th Five - Year Plan, providing a bottom - support for industrial product prices. Domestic economy is under marginal pressure and requires more policy support. Overseas, the Fed has restarted the easing process, and the expectation of interest rate cuts this year is strong, which is beneficial for overseas manufacturing recovery and expanding domestic policy space. [10][80] - In the fourth quarter, the black industry will be affected by the logic of expectation and real - world trading. The raw materials in the black industry chain are stronger than the finished products. Steel is mainly supported by cost and positive macro - expectations in the fourth quarter, and will operate in a volatile manner. [80] - Iron ore prices are supported by strong demand, but the accumulation of port inventories will restrict the upward space. It is expected to continue to operate in a volatile and strong manner in the short term, but will face adjustment pressure after the peak season. [80] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - **Steel**: In the third quarter, steel prices improved due to policy expectations and cost support. In July, prices rose significantly; in August, they fell due to the cooling of anti - involution and weak demand; in September, they bottomed out with policy support. [5][7] - **Iron Ore**: In the third quarter, iron ore prices strengthened due to policy expectations and strong demand. In July, prices rose significantly and then were under pressure but still trended strongly overall. [8] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **Domestic Anti - involution**: Since July, anti - involution has received high - level attention. It is expected to run through the 15th Five - Year Plan, and the long - term policy expectation of "anti - involution" supports industrial product prices. [10] - **Fed Interest Rate Cut**: On September 17, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The market expects another two interest rate cuts this year. The impact on the black industry is relatively small. [13] - **US Economic Performance**: The US manufacturing and service PMIs in September were lower than expected. Retail sales and manufacturing output in August were strong, and the Q2 GDP was revised upwards. [20] - **Domestic Economic Data**: China's economic data in August showed marginal weakness. Industrial added value, social consumption, and fixed - asset investment all missed expectations. Policy support is needed. [23] - **August Social Financing**: In August, social financing performance was weak, and credit demand was still weak. M2 growth stagnated, and M1 growth slowed. [30] 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Terminal Demand** - **Real Estate**: Real estate investment and sales continued to weaken, and the demand for construction steel remained weak. [31] - **Infrastructure**: Infrastructure investment growth slowed in the first eight months of 2025, but the proportion of special bonds invested in infrastructure increased, and there may be positive signals of marginal improvement. [38] - **Automobiles**: Automobile production and sales were stable. In August, production and sales increased year - on - year, and new energy vehicle production and sales also grew significantly. [41] - **Excavators and Ships**: In August 2025, excavator production and sales increased year - on - year. Ship exports from January to August increased by 24.4% year - on - year. [44] - **Exports**: In August 2025, steel exports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Overall exports had some resilience, but attention should be paid to the pressure in the fourth quarter. [45] - **Steel Demand** - **Rebar**: In the third quarter, rebar demand was weak, and the weak pattern was difficult to change. [50] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: In the third quarter, hot - rolled coil demand was resilient, but it may face challenges in the fourth quarter. [50] - **Steel Supply** - **Steel Mills**: Steel mills had good profits, and the blast furnace operating rate was high. In the peak season, high - level supply may continue, and attention should be paid to demand matching. [53][59] - **Crude Steel Output**: In August 2025, China's crude steel output decreased year - on - year. Global crude steel output in August increased slightly year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. [56] - **Inventory** - **Steel**: In the third quarter, steel inventory accumulated. Rebar inventory began seasonal destocking, and hot - rolled coil inventory continued to accumulate. [63] - **Iron Ore**: In the third quarter, port inventory of iron ore was relatively balanced. In the fourth quarter, port inventory pressure may increase, and steel mill inventory remained low. [78] - **Price Difference**: In the third quarter, the hot - rolled coil to rebar price difference was high and has now converged. It is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter. [64] - **Iron Ore Supply and Demand** - **Supply**: In August, iron ore imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The shipments of the four major mines recovered in the second quarter, and the production targets for the 2026 fiscal year were raised. [68][69] - **Demand**: In the third quarter, iron ore demand was stronger than last year. The blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output were high, but attention should be paid to downstream demand performance. [75] 4. Future Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Anti - involution policies will support industrial product prices. The Fed's interest rate cuts are beneficial for overseas manufacturing and domestic policy space. Focus on the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, Sino - US tariff negotiations, and domestic policy space. [80] - **Supply - Demand**: In the fourth quarter, the black industry will be affected by expectations and reality. Steel will operate in a volatile manner, and iron ore prices will face adjustment pressure after the peak season. [80]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In Q4, asphalt is expected to continue its wide - range oscillatory trend, mainly due to the game between fundamentals and the cost side. The high production on the supply side will offset the positive support from the improved demand driven by terminal rush - work at the beginning of Q4. Crude oil lacks directional guidance under the dual influence of fundamentals and geopolitics, with OPEC+ production increase and the end of the demand peak season strengthening the expectation of supply surplus in Q4, while geopolitical fluctuations provide intermittent support for oil prices. It is recommended to focus on the BU2512 contract in the range of 3,250 - 3,550 yuan/ton [50]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In Q3, asphalt showed an oscillatory and weakening trend under the combined influence of the cost side and fundamentals. The weak operation of crude oil due to OPEC+ production increase weakened cost support, and nationwide heavy rainfall hindered terminal construction, resulting in high social inventory and a lack of upward drive for the market. Overall, asphalt mainly fluctuated with crude oil in Q3 [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - **Geopolitical Impact**: Frequent geopolitical events caused intermittent disturbances to oil prices. Meetings between the US and Russian presidents, threats of sanctions from the US, suspension of Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and threats of tariff hikes on Russian oil buyers by the US and Europe all affected the oil market. In the future, geopolitics is expected to remain a major influencing factor for oil prices in Q4 [9]. - **OPEC+ Production Policy**: OPEC+ completed a 2.2 million barrels per day production increase one year ahead of schedule in September and initiated a new round of production increase starting in October. The over - expected production increase demonstrated OPEC+'s determination to regain market share. OPEC+ also plans to compensate for 4.779 million barrels per day of excess production by July 2026, with Kazakhstan, Iraq, and Russia having specific compensation plans. However, Kazakhstan's failure to effectively implement production cuts may lead to concerns about an internal price war within OPEC+ [10][12]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: From July to August, domestic asphalt production totaled 5.0346 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9173 million tons. The weekly production in September reached a new high for the year, and the planned production of local refineries in October is expected to increase by 9% month - on - month and 46% year - on - year. The refinery operating rate increased steadily in Q3 and rose rapidly in September. It is expected that asphalt production will be high in the early part of Q4 and then decline as refineries enter the maintenance phase [13][19]. - **Demand Side**: From July to August, domestic asphalt shipments totaled 3.649 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.187 million tons (5.4% year - on - year increase). The weekly shipments showed a U - shaped trend in Q3, with demand weakening from July to August due to rainfall and rebounding in September. The utilization rate of modified asphalt production capacity remained stable and increased, reaching 18.94% as of September 22, a year - on - year increase of 0.86 percentage points. However, as the demand peak season ends, both demand and production capacity utilization may face downward pressure [21][24]. - **Import and Export**: From July to August, asphalt imports totaled 0.6497 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.0262 million tons, with a relatively stable average import price. Exports totaled 0.1365 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.0659 million tons, and the average export price increased slightly [30][34]. - **Inventory**: Both factory and social inventories of asphalt showed a downward trend in Q3. Factory inventory reached 0.658 million tons as of September 26, a year - on - year decrease of 0.265 million tons (40.27% year - on - year decrease). Social inventory decreased after rainfall ended in August. In Q4, both are expected to continue the seasonal de - stocking trend [38][42]. - **Price Spread**: In Q3, the crack spread of asphalt remained high and oscillated within a narrow range, while the diluted processing profit of asphalt was at a low level in recent years, which restricted the release of local refinery production capacity. In Q4, the crack spread is expected to remain high as demand enters the off - season [47].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is relatively optimistic, and there is support at the lower end of aluminum prices [1]. - In the fourth quarter, the macro sentiment at home and abroad is positive, providing price support for non - ferrous metals [66]. - For electrolytic aluminum, supply will have a small increase, and the price will first rise and then fall, with the upper pressure at 22,000 and the lower support at 20,000. Attention should be paid to the demand - side support [68]. - The short - term supply - demand fundamentals of aluminum alloy change little, and its price still fluctuates with the aluminum price. It is recommended to take a long - position on dips [68]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The electrolytic aluminum price showed a three - stage trend in the current period. From January to mid - March, it oscillated upward due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, Trump's assumption of office, and pre - holiday stocking demand. From late March to early April, it oscillated downward as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation faded and concerns about Trump's tariff policy emerged. From mid - April to the present, it oscillated upward after the US tariff policy was implemented and counter - measures were taken in China, along with other factors like supply disturbances from Guinea's bauxite and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation [6]. 2. Macro - aspect - The Fed restarted interest - rate cuts, and liquidity became more relaxed. The US economic data showed changes in employment, inflation, etc. The tariff impact was temporarily alleviated, and attention should be paid to the time point in November. China's anti - involution policy was advanced, and future inflation might stabilize and rebound [8][10][14]. 3. Fundamental Aspect Supply - side - **Bauxite**: In July, China's bauxite production increased year - on - year. Guinea's supply was disturbed, but the impact was expected to be limited. The domestic port inventory was high, suppressing the transaction price. The bauxite price might have a seasonal correction but had support at 70 dollars/ton [18][22][24]. - **Alumina**: The supply was loose. In 2025, there was a large - scale new - investment capacity. Although some projects were postponed, there was still 440 million tons of new - investment capacity in the fourth quarter. The production capacity utilization rate was at a historical high, but there might be seasonal production cuts in winter in Shanxi and Henan [25][27]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In August, the production was 3.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In the fourth quarter, the production was expected to be about 11.283 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.39%, showing a stable operation [30]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In July, the import volume of un - forged aluminum alloy hit a four - year low, mainly due to price inversion and the off - season of demand. The export volume increased year - on - year. The weekly inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy increased [59][60][64]. Demand - side - **Downstream Processing**: As of September 18, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.2% week - on - week, but decreased by 1.3 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Different sectors had different trends [31]. - **Export**: In August, China's export of un - forged aluminum and aluminum products was 530,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%. From January to August, the cumulative export was 4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%. The export was under pressure due to tariff policies [34]. - **New Energy**: In the photovoltaic field, the annual photovoltaic installation was expected to increase year - on - year, and the photovoltaic aluminum consumption in the fourth quarter was expected to decrease year - on - year but still maintain positive growth for the whole year. In the power grid field, the cable aluminum demand continued to grow, and it was expected to maintain high - growth in the fourth quarter [39]. - **Automobile**: In August, the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The demand for aluminum in the automobile industry increased significantly, and new - energy vehicles were expected to drive aluminum consumption in the fourth quarter [46]. - **Real Estate**: In August, the real - estate sales, investment, new construction, and completion areas decreased year - on - year. However, the new policies in first - tier cities might support the market demand, and the new - house transaction area in 38 cities increased year - on - year in early September [41]. Inventory - As of September 19, the inventory of SHFE electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly, LME inventory increased, and COMEX inventory decreased slightly. The overall inventory was in a low position historically. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was expected to show a "slow de - stocking" pattern in the fourth quarter [48][51]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased slightly in August and was expected to continue to decline slightly in September. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 0.4 percentage points week - on - week as of September 18, and it was expected to remain stable in September [54][57]. 4. Future Outlook - The macro - environment is favorable for non - ferrous metals. The bauxite price may have a seasonal correction but has support. The alumina supply is in surplus, and the electrolytic aluminum price will first rise and then fall. The aluminum alloy price fluctuates with the aluminum price [66][68].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rubber market in Q3 2025 showed a sideways oscillation with no obvious unilateral trend. In Q4, the market will likely oscillate within a range, with supply pressure more prominent in the early stage and potential for rebounds due to weather and policies in the later stage [6][53]. - The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase in Q4, but weather disturbances and the pace of increased tapping will support prices from the bottom. The cost of synthetic rubber remains under pressure, and the supply situation will not change significantly in the short term [8][28]. - The demand for rubber from the tire industry is affected by factors such as the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" not meeting expectations, EU anti - dumping investigations, and US tariff policies. However, domestic new energy vehicle policies provide some support [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Since Q3, the three major rubber futures markets have been in a sideways oscillation. Rain and typhoons in July - August supported rubber prices by hindering tapping, but in September, with the seasonal peak production season and the "zero - tariff rubber import" pilot project, concerns about increased supply grew. The "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" demand was below expectations, and EU anti - dumping investigations and US tariff policies affected exports, while domestic new energy vehicle policies supported demand [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation Natural Rubber - **Raw Material Prices**: As of September 26, raw material prices in Thailand, Yunnan, and Hainan were lower than the same period last year. Prices have been relatively stable in Q3, and are expected to remain stable in Q4, providing cost support [8]. - **Supply Growth**: The global supply growth of natural rubber is slowing down. In 2025, the global output is expected to increase by only 0.5%. China's output has increased significantly, while Indonesia and Vietnam's output is expected to decline. Weather will be a major variable affecting output in Q4 [10]. - **Imports**: In August 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Thailand is the largest source, and imports from Cote d'Ivoire are growing. If the China - Cote d'Ivoire zero - tariff policy is implemented, imports may further increase [17]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of September 19, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 111.2 tons. Qingdao's inventory has been decreasing, but the pace has slowed. In Q4, the inventory reduction pressure may increase with more arrivals from major producing areas [20]. Synthetic Rubber - **Profit of Butadiene Rubber Enterprises**: In 2025, the large increase in butadiene production capacity led to an oversupply situation, putting pressure on prices. The cost of butadiene rubber remains high, and production profit is under pressure. Although production growth has slowed, it remains at a high level [28]. - **Inventory of Butadiene Rubber**: As of the week of September 26, the factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,600 tons, and the trader inventory was 5,700 tons, both higher than the same period last year. The market is in a weak supply - demand balance, and attention should be paid to inventory digestion during the peak demand season [29]. - **Imports and Exports of Butadiene Rubber**: In August 2025, China's butadiene rubber imports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while exports increased. China has shifted from a net importer to a net exporter, and this pattern is expected to continue in Q4 [31]. Tires - **All - steel Tires**: As of September 26, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires was 66.39%, and the factory inventory days were 39.16 days. The social inventory at the end of August was 62,500 units. Factory inventory has decreased significantly, but social inventory remains high. After the National Day holiday, the resumption of production by tire enterprises will affect supply pressure [36]. - **Semi - steel Tires**: In August, the production of passenger cars and semi - steel tires increased. However, due to the mismatch between supply and demand and EU anti - dumping investigations, the factory inventory pressure is large [43]. - **Tire Exports**: In August 2025, the export of all - steel tires was relatively stable, with new growth points in emerging markets. The export of semi - steel tires decreased after reaching a high in July. In Q4, semi - steel tire exports may face downward pressure, while all - steel tires may benefit from emerging markets [46]. 3.3 Related Price Situation - The price spreads among the three major rubber futures contracts were relatively stable, indicating that the internal supply - demand fundamentals of rubber were not significantly differentiated, and market influencing factors tended to be consistent [50]. 3.4 Future Market Outlook - In Q4, raw material prices are expected to run stably, providing cost support. The supply from Cote d'Ivoire may increase. Qingdao's inventory reduction pressure may grow. The tire industry's inventory and production resumption after the National Day will affect demand. Macroeconomic factors include the impact of the Fed's interest - rate cuts and potential domestic macro - easing policies. The market will likely oscillate within a range, with supply pressure more obvious in the early stage and potential for rebounds later [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the overall supply of coking coal will gradually shift from tight balance to looseness, with low inventory providing price support; the production enthusiasm of independent coking enterprises for coke is better than last year, but their bargaining power is weak, and the demand for coke is supported by high - level hot metal production. The market needs to focus on the supply increment after the National Day, downstream winter storage demand, policy implementation, and market game results [32][34]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - In Q3 2025, the coking coal and coke futures markets showed a strong trend. In July, the market rebounded strongly driven by macro and policy expectations. In August, the market diverged, and the driving logic shifted from strong expectations to weak reality. Although the price decline was limited due to cost support and pre - holiday replenishment demand [8]. 02 Data Analysis - **Coking Coal Supply**: As of the week of September 26, the operating rates and daily output of sample coal washing plants and mines decreased year - on - year. Domestic coking coal supply was restricted by policies, while Mongolian coal imports increased, and the overall supply shifted from tight balance to looseness [11]. - **Coking Coal Imports**: As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by about 8% year - on - year. Mongolia and Russia dominated, and Canada's share increased. The main import increment in Q4 is expected to come from Mongolia [12]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: As of the week of September 26, the coking coal inventories of mines, coal washing plants, and ports decreased year - on - year. The inventory transferred downstream, and the low - inventory state provided price support [18]. - **Coking Coal Replenishment Logic**: As of September 26, the coking coal inventories of independent coking enterprises and steel enterprises increased year - on - year. The inventory changes of independent coking enterprises were related to profits, while steel enterprises' replenishment was affected by seasonal expectations and actual demand [21]. - **Coke Production**: As of the week of September 26, the capacity utilization rate and daily output of independent coking enterprises increased year - on - year, while those of steel enterprises decreased slightly. Independent coking enterprises maintained high production to make up for profits, and attention should be paid to the impact of profit changes on production enthusiasm [23]. - **Coke Demand**: As of the week of September 26, the profitability, daily hot metal output, and weekly coke consumption of steel enterprises increased year - on - year. High hot metal production supported coke demand, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the steel industry's output reduction policy [26]. - **Coke Inventory**: As of the week of September 26, the coke inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased year - on - year, while that of steel enterprises and ports increased. High hot metal production drove inventory transfer, and attention should be paid to the balance between downstream demand and upstream production adjustment [28]. - **Price Fluctuations**: As of the week of September 26, independent coking enterprises had an average loss of 34 yuan per ton of coke. In Q3, there were multiple rounds of price increases and decreases, and the new round of price increases needed to observe market game results [29]. 03 Market Outlook - **Coking Coal**: In Q4, the supply of domestic coking coal is limited, but Mongolian coal supplements. The inventory transfer is restricted by the weak reality, and the low - inventory state supports prices. The replenishment of downstream enterprises is affected by profits and actual demand [32]. - **Coke**: In Q4, the production enthusiasm of independent coking enterprises is better, but their bargaining power is weak. High - level hot metal production supports coke demand. The new round of price increases needs to observe market game results, and the coke futures market follows coking coal fluctuations [34].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the oil industry. 2. Core View - In the fourth quarter, the crude oil market will continue to face a game between fundamentals and geopolitics. The expected supply surplus due to OPEC+ production increases and the end of the demand peak season will suppress oil prices, while geopolitical tensions may support prices. Overall, oil prices are expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation, with the WTI crude oil price recommended to be monitored in the range of $55 - 75 per barrel [53]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review - In the third quarter, crude oil showed a slightly weak oscillating trend. After the end of the Israel - related conflict, the geopolitical risk premium declined rapidly. The changing US - Russia relations caused short - term market disturbances, and the "strong reality, weak expectation" situation supported oil prices but couldn't drive continuous growth. As the demand peak season ended, the expected supply surplus pressured oil prices. Attention should be paid to demand changes and geopolitical developments [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - **Fed Interest Rate Cut**: On September 18, 2025, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut in 2025. It is expected to cut rates two more times in 2025, once each in 2026 and 2027. Powell pointed out that the US labor market is weakening. After the interest - rate cut, market sentiment recovered, but further economic data decline may strengthen the expected supply surplus and pressure oil prices [10]. - **Geopolitical Impact**: Geopolitical events such as the US - Russia "Putin - Trump meeting", threats of sanctions against Russia, suspension of Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and threats of tariffs on Russian oil buyers have intermittently affected oil prices. Given the large differences in core interests between the two sides of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, geopolitics will remain a major factor affecting oil prices in the fourth quarter [11]. - **OPEC+ Production Adjustment**: OPEC+ completed the 2.2 million barrels per day production increase one year ahead of schedule in September and will implement a 137,000 - barrel - per - day production adjustment starting in October. Some countries will compensate for over - production by 2026. IEA raised its forecasts for global oil supply and demand growth, while EIA and OPEC maintained their previous forecasts [14][17]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Supply Side** - OPEC+ production increased from July to August 2025, with a cumulative output of 55.418 million barrels per day, a 1.082 - million - barrel - per - day increase from the previous period. The production increase is expected to fully reach 2.2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, increasing supply pressure [19]. - As of September 19, US weekly EIA crude oil production was 13.501 million barrels per day, an increase from June and August. US oil production is expected to remain stable but faces multiple risks [21]. - As of September 19, the total number of US oil rigs was 418, an increase of 2 from the previous period. The number of rigs is expected to remain low [23]. - **Demand Side** - In the third quarter, the US manufacturing PMI rebounded, with the ISM manufacturing PMI reaching 51.4 in August, up 4.3 from the previous month. The Chicago PMI remained stable, indicating that manufacturing expansion boosted oil demand to some extent [26]. - As of September 19, the US refinery utilization rate was 93%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period. Refinery utilization rates are in a downward cycle, and oil demand is under pressure [29]. - China's manufacturing PMI remained stable in the third quarter but was below the boom - bust line. The main refinery utilization rate decreased, while the independent refinery utilization rate increased. Overall, domestic oil consumption faces short - term weakening pressure [37][41]. - **Inventory Side** - As of September 19, the US EIA crude oil inventory was - 607,000 barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 230,000 barrels. In the third quarter, the US EIA crude oil was in a destocking state, but may start to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter [46]. - As of September 19, the Cushing crude oil inventory was 177,000 barrels. In the third quarter, Cushing crude oil inventory increased, while gasoline inventory decreased. Both are expected to face inventory accumulation pressure [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market will remain in a pattern of "favorable macro - environment + supply shortage" in the fourth quarter. Despite weak traditional demand, the supply - side bottleneck is difficult to ease. With the support of domestic and foreign policies, the copper price has strong downside support and still has upward potential, likely to operate in the range of 78,000 - 85,000 yuan. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, and attention should be paid to the US tariff policy, the Fed's interest - rate cut path, and the sustainability of domestic demand policies [46]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In Q3 2025, copper prices showed a range - bound pattern. The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated between 77,570 - 83,090 yuan/ton. In early July, the US unexpectedly announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, causing copper prices to fall under pressure. Subsequently, the market digested the news, and the focus returned to the structural shortage of global copper mine supply and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. At the end of the quarter, due to mine - end disturbances, copper prices broke through the range, reaching a maximum of 83,090 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspects - **Tariff Policy**: Trump's repeated signals of imposing tariffs on copper imports in 2025 have led to a continuous widening and repeated record - highs of the price difference between COMEX and LME copper. The price - difference change is divided into three stages. The impact of the tariff policy is gradually easing, but macro - uncertainty remains high during Trump's tenure. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations in November [11][12]. - **Inflation**: China's CPI in August 2025 decreased year - on - year, mainly due to the high base of the previous year and lower - than - seasonal food prices. The PPI decline narrowed, and the price of some energy and raw material industries rebounded. The implementation of the "anti - involution" policy may lead to a stable recovery of inflation in the future [17]. 3.3 Fundamentals - **Supply Side** - **Copper Concentrate**: In Q3 2025, the spot TC of copper concentrate remained deeply negative. Although there was a rebound in mid - August, it returned to around - 40 US dollars due to frequent mine - end disturbances. The long - term TC/RC has also reached a historical low, indicating a "strong mine, weak smelting" pattern. In Q4, the spot TC may continue to be deeply negative [21]. - **Refined Copper Production**: In August 2025, China's refined copper production increased year - on - year. However, in September, the number of smelters undergoing maintenance increased, and the production decline was more significant. In Q4, the number of domestic smelters undergoing maintenance will increase, and production may be affected [24][26]. - **Scrap Copper Imports**: In August 2025, China's scrap copper imports decreased month - on - month, mainly due to import losses, extreme weather affecting transportation, and a decrease in overseas scrap copper exports [28]. - **Demand Side** - **Real Estate**: In August 2025, the real estate market continued to decline, with sales, investment, new construction, and completion areas all showing negative growth. Although first - tier cities have introduced policies to support the market, investment and construction are still under pressure [34]. - **Automobile Industry**: In August 2025, the production and sales of traditional cars increased year - on - year, while the proportion of fuel - powered cars decreased. The new - energy vehicle industry maintained strong momentum, with high production and sales growth rates and a large market share [39]. - **Home Appliances**: In August 2025, the production of household refrigerators and air - conditioners increased year - on - year, but the air - conditioner sales decreased slightly. In Q4, the home - appliance sector may face pressure of slowing growth due to the advance of demand by the "trade - in" policy and potential export pressure [42]. - **Inventory**: Since February 2025, the copper inventories of the three major exchanges have shown a divergent trend, with LME copper inventory hitting a record low. As of September 26, the US copper inventory exceeded the sum of LME and SHFE copper inventories. In Q4, the inventory accumulation of COMEX may slow down, and the non - US copper inventory may rebound [45]. 3.4 Future Outlook - **Macroeconomic**: The Fed is likely to cut interest rates twice more this year, which will drive the recovery of the manufacturing industry. The impact of tariffs is gradually easing, and attention should be paid to the trade negotiations in November [47]. - **Copper Market**: The copper market will remain in a pattern of "favorable macro - environment + supply shortage" in Q4. The copper price is likely to operate in the range of 78,000 - 85,000 yuan, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel prices rebounded with oscillations this week, supported by the cost side. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was fulfilled, having a small impact on the black market. The article in Qiushi Journal boosted the coking coal price, providing cost support for steel. Steel's off - season trading is nearly over, but fundamental pressure remains, and steel is expected to fluctuate within a range. Track the demand improvement after price increases [5][67]. - Iron ore prices fluctuated at a high level this week. Supply: shipping increased but arrivals decreased, and port inventories declined. Demand: hot metal production remained high, pre - holiday restocking demand provided support, and the US easing cycle was favorable for risk assets. However, downstream steel demand showed no obvious improvement, and price increases require fundamental support. Short - term ore prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly, with attention to adjustment pressure after the end of restocking at the end of the month [5][69]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - **Market Focus**: China and the US reached a basic framework consensus on resolving the TikTok issue. Xi Jinping's article on promoting the unified market was published. The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, and is expected to cut twice more this year [5]. - **Key Data**: China's August industrial and consumption data missed expectations; US August industrial and retail data were better than expected. In early September, key steel enterprises' daily crude steel output increased by 7.2% [5]. - **Main Views**: Steel is expected to oscillate in a range, and iron ore is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **For Steel (Thread)**: Bullish factors include positive market sentiment from the Qiushi article, cost support from rising raw material prices, and improved demand and reduced inventory pressure. Bearish factors are the market adjustment after the Fed's rate cut and weakening economic data in August, and the decline in hot - rolled coil apparent demand [8]. - **For Iron Ore**: Bullish factors are positive market sentiment, cost support, high hot metal production, and pre - holiday restocking demand. Bearish factors are the market adjustment after the Fed's rate cut, weakening economic data in August, and increased iron ore shipping [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Macro**: The article in Qiushi Magazine boosted industrial product sentiment. The Fed cut rates, and the market expected another cut in October. August's social financing and economic data were weak, and policies are needed [10][12][18]. - **Terminal**: Real estate investment and sales were weak. August's auto production and sales were stable, with new - energy vehicles growing rapidly. August's excavator production and sales increased, and ship exports grew [24][29][32]. - **Supply**: In the first eight months, China's crude steel and pig iron production decreased year - on - year [33]. - **(Thread)**: Spot prices rose slightly, and the basis shrank. The steel mill profitability rate decreased. Blast furnace开工率 increased, and electric furnace开工率 decreased. Steel output decreased slightly. Thread apparent demand improved seasonally, and hot - rolled coil demand fluctuated. Thread inventory decreased, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased. The coil - to - thread spread declined [35][37][43]. - **(Iron Ore)**: Spot prices fluctuated slightly, and the basis widened. In August, imports increased slightly, and shipping increased this week. Arrivals decreased this week. Hot metal production was high. Port inventory decreased, and dredging increased. Steel mills are still restocking [51][55][58]. 3.4后市研判 - **Steel**: Steel is expected to oscillate in a range, and the demand after price increases needs to be tracked [67]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the adjustment pressure after the end of restocking [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which was in line with expectations. In the medium term, the logic of continuous liquidity easing remains, but after the short - term bullish factors are realized, risk assets may experience a limited - amplitude correction [10]. - The main theme of the economy is still stable growth. China will implement a series of policies to expand service consumption [11][12]. - The supply of alumina is expected to remain in an oversupply situation, and the spot price is expected to continue to adjust weakly in the short term [22][25]. - In August, the output of primary aluminum changed little, and the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in September [26][27]. - The real - estate market is still under pressure, but the new policies in first - tier cities have provided some support to the market [33][34]. - The production and sales of automobiles, especially new - energy vehicles, showed a good growth trend in August [36][37]. - The inventories of domestic and foreign exchanges both increased, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate [39][42][43]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 01 Report Summary - The Fed's interest - rate cut was in line with expectations, with a neutral - to - hawkish attitude. Medium - term liquidity is expected to be loose, and short - term risk assets may correct slightly [10]. - China will implement policies to expand service consumption, including selecting pilot cities and promoting the application of AI [12]. - The supply of alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be weak. The output of primary aluminum changed little in August, and the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in September [25][27]. - The real - estate market is under pressure, but first - tier city policies have provided some support. The automobile market, especially new - energy vehicles, showed good growth [34][37]. 02 Multi - and Short - Focus - **Bullish factors**: The enterprise's production capacity utilization rate continues to increase, and the social inventory remains at a low level [7]. - **Bearish factors**: The price of aluminum oxide continues to decline, and the market shows a weak trend [7]. 03 Data Analysis - **Aluminum ore**: From January to July 2025, the domestic aluminum ore production increased. The import of bauxite from Guinea remained stable, but attention should be paid to the impact of the referendum [16][21]. - **Alumina**: In August 2025, the output of alumina was at a high level, and the supply - surplus situation remained unchanged. The spot price is expected to adjust weakly [25]. - **Primary aluminum**: In August 2025, the output of primary aluminum was 3.8 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. The operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in September [27]. - **Downstream processing**: The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly, but high aluminum prices inhibited procurement [30]. - **Real - estate**: In August, the real - estate sales, investment, new - start, and completion areas all declined year - on - year. First - tier cities introduced policies, and the new - house transaction area in 38 cities increased year - on - year in early September [34]. - **Automobile**: In August, the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [37]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of LME and SHFE aluminum increased. The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate, and the spot premium decreased [39][43][45]. - **Recycled aluminum**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased slightly in August, and the operating rate increased slightly last week. The inventory of aluminum alloy increased [48][51][59]. - **Aluminum alloy imports and exports**: In July 2025, the import volume of unwrought aluminum alloy reached a four - year low, and the export volume increased year - on - year [54]. 04后市研判 - For Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to the support around 20,600 and wait for the verification of the peak season of domestic downstream demand [62]. - The price of aluminum alloy still fluctuates with the price of aluminum, and it is recommended to be bullish on dips [60].