1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, steel prices weakened this week due to the release of macro - sentiment and a weak supply - demand pattern in the steel market. Steel fundamentals are weak, and steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. Iron ore prices also weakened, affected by macro - interference and concerns about the decline in hot metal production. The short - term iron ore price is also expected to fluctuate weakly [5][50][52]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - Market focus includes tariff adjustments on US - imported goods, 2000 billion yuan of new special bond quotas for provincial investment, the US government shutdown, and the decline of China's manufacturing PMI in October. Key data shows a decrease in steel exports in October, a decline in daily steel production in late October, and a decrease in steel inventories. The main view is that steel and iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus 3.2.1 Multi - and Short - Factors Analysis (Rebar) - Bullish factors: domestic policy expectations remain, and steel production has decreased. Bearish factors: the decline of Sino - US manufacturing PMI, the impact of short - term dollar liquidity risks on the market, weakening steel demand, limited reduction in rebar inventory, and the re - accumulation of hot - rolled coil inventory [8]. 3.2.2 Multi - and Short - Factors Analysis (Iron Ore) - Bullish factors: domestic policy expectations remain, and the weekly shipment has decreased. Bearish factors: the decline of Sino - US manufacturing PMI, the impact of short - term dollar liquidity risks on the market, the continuous decline of hot metal production, and the continuous accumulation of port inventory [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis 3.3.1 Macro - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decline from the previous month. The production and new order indices also decreased. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October was 48.7, contracting for the eighth consecutive month, while the service PMI rose to 52.4. The US government shutdown may reduce the Q4 economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points, and about 14 billion US dollars of economic losses may be irreparable. The suspension of fiscal expenditure has frozen about 70 billion US dollars of funds, increasing the risk aversion in the market and pressuring industrial products [10][11]. 3.3.2 Terminal - In October, the average monthly working hours of China's construction machinery products decreased by 9.03% year - on - year, and the monthly startup rate was 55%, a 10.1 - percentage - point decline year - on - year. From January to June 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, and new orders decreased by 18.2% year - on - year, while the order backlog increased by 36.7% year - on - year [17]. 3.3.3 (Rebar) Spot - The spot price of rebar decreased, and the basis widened [18]. 3.3.4 Profit - This week, the profitability rate of steel mills decreased by 5.19 percentage points to 39.83% [20]. 3.3.5 Production - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide increased by 1.38 percentage points to 83.13%, while the electric furnace operating rate decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 67.03%. The output of five building materials was 856.74 (- 18.55) million tons, rebar output was 208.54 (- 4.05) million tons, and hot - rolled coil output was 318.16 (- 5.4) million tons. Some steel mills in Tangshan and Shanxi have planned production cuts [22][26]. 3.3.6 Apparent Demand - The apparent demand for five building materials was 866.91 (- 49.51) million tons, rebar apparent demand was 218.52 (- 13.67) million tons, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand was 314.3 (- 17.59) million tons. Thailand has launched an anti - circumvention investigation on Chinese hot - rolled steel [29]. 3.3.7 Inventory - The total inventory of five building materials was 1503.57 (- 10.17) million tons, rebar total inventory was 592.54 (- 9.98) million tons, and hot - rolled coil total inventory was 410.45 (+ 3.86) million tons. The reduction of rebar inventory was slow, and hot - rolled coil inventory re - accumulated [32]. 3.3.8 Spread - The hot - rolled coil to rebar spread slightly widened [33]. 3.3.9 (Iron Ore) Spot - The spot price of iron ore decreased, and the basis widened [35]. 3.3.10 Import and Shipment - In October, China imported 111.309 million tons of iron ore, a 4.3% month - on - month decrease. From October 27 to November 2, the global iron ore shipment was 32.138 million tons, a 1.745 - million - ton decrease from the previous week [39]. 3.3.11 Arrival - From October 27 to November 2, the arrival volume of 47 ports in China was 33.141 million tons, a 12.298 - million - ton increase from the previous week [40]. 3.3.12 Hot Metal Production - This week, the average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2.3422 million tons, a 21,400 - ton decrease from the previous week [42]. 3.3.13 Port Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 148.98383 million tons, a 3.5635 - million - ton increase. The average daily port clearance volume was 3.2093 million tons, a 7700 - ton increase from the previous week [46]. 3.3.14 Steel Mill Consumption and Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 90.0994 million tons, a 1.6008 - million - ton increase. The daily consumption was 2.887 million tons, a 29,200 - ton decrease. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 31.21 days, a 0.86 - day increase [48]. 3.4后市研判 - Steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly due to weak fundamentals. Iron ore prices are also expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to weak supply - demand and accumulated port inventory [50][52].

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil showed a volatile and weakening trend. Geopolitical risk premiums declined, and demand entered the off - season. The expected supply surplus strengthened, suppressing prices. In the future, factors affecting crude oil will remain mixed. Weak fundamentals will exert long - term pressure on oil prices, but cost support, demand uncertainty, and geopolitical factors will provide support and increase price volatility. Oil prices are expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [8]. - It is recommended to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $59 - 63 per barrel [9][53]. Summary by Directory 1. Report Abstract - **Market Focus**: Tensions between the US and Venezuela have intensified, with the US increasing military deployments in the Caribbean. The US EIA weekly crude oil inventory has significantly increased. OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspend the production increase plan in the first quarter of next year [7]. - **Key Data**: For the week ending October 31, the US EIA crude oil inventory was 5.202 million barrels (expected 603,000 barrels, previous value - 6.858 million barrels); the EIA Cushing crude oil inventory was 30,000 barrels (previous value 133,400 barrels); the EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 49,800 barrels (previous value 53,300 barrels) [7]. - **Main Ideas**: Crude oil is in a volatile and weakening trend. Geopolitical risk premiums have declined, and demand has entered the off - season. The expected supply surplus is increasing, suppressing prices. In the future, factors affecting crude oil will remain mixed. Oil prices are expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $59 - 63 per barrel [9]. 2. Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Geopolitical disturbances [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: Consensus reached in China - US economic and trade consultations; weakening fundamentals [11]. 3. Macro Analysis - **OPEC+ Production Plan**: OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspend production increases in the first quarter of 2026. This can relieve short - term supply pressure but does not change the long - term supply increase situation [12]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Tensions in the Gaza Strip, the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict, and intensified US - Venezuela relations bring uncertainties. Geopolitical factors have not caused substantial losses to global crude oil supply but will increase price volatility [13]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Decision**: There is a divergence among Fed officials on a December interest rate cut. The probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in December is 67.3%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 32.7% [16]. - **Manufacturing PMI**: The US October ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than the expected 49.5, indicating a downturn in the manufacturing industry and easing inflation pressure [16]. 4. Data Analysis - **Supply Side**: As of the week ending October 31, US domestic crude oil production increased by 7,000 barrels per day to 1,365.1 million barrels per day, reaching a new high for the year. The number of US oil rigs remained flat at 414, expected to stay low this year [17][20]. - **Demand Side**: US refinery operating rates decreased, and European 16 - country refinery operating rates showed a downward trend. Chinese refinery operating rates were divided, with state - owned refineries experiencing a slight decline and independent refineries rising. Refinery profits in China decreased [23][29][36]. - **Inventory**: US EIA crude oil inventory may reach a turning point, and Cushing crude oil inventory increased while gasoline inventory decreased. US crude oil cracking spreads increased slightly [45][49][50]. 5. Future Outlook - The factors affecting crude oil will remain mixed. Weak fundamentals will suppress oil prices in the long term, but cost support, demand uncertainty, and geopolitical factors will provide support. Oil prices are expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, and it is recommended to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $59 - 63 per barrel [53].

Report Summary - The report reviews the weekly situation of asphalt, covering macro - analysis, supply - demand analysis, and provides trading strategies and market outlooks [7][8] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the asphalt futures market showed a one - sided decline, hitting a new low for the year. It is expected to continue its weak trend due to the lack of positive drivers, with the downstream entering the off - season and the expectation of crude oil supply surplus [8][54] - The operation should avoid chasing short positions due to the large short - term decline. It is recommended to focus on the BU2601 contract in the range of 2950 - 3140 yuan/ton [8][54] Summary by Directory 01 Report Abstract - Market focus: Tensions between the US and Venezuela, a significant increase in US EIA crude oil inventory, and OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause in Q1 2026 [7] - Key data: As of November 5, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise operating rate was 29.7%, down 1.8 percentage points; as of November 7, the weekly asphalt production was 532,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons; the factory inventory was 641,000 tons, a decrease of 44,000 tons; the social inventory was 897,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons [7] 02 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: Macro - improvement, geopolitical risks [11] - Bearish factors: Weakening demand, OPEC+ production increase [11] 03 Macro Analysis - OPEC+ production adjustment: Increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause in Q1 2026. It may relieve short - term supply pressure, but the long - term supply surplus expectation remains [12] - Geopolitical situation: The Gaza situation may heat up, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and US - Venezuela relations are tense. Geopolitical uncertainties may cause oil price fluctuations [13] - Fed policy and economic data: There is a divergence on a December rate cut. The probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 67.3%. The US October ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than expected, indicating continued inflation pressure relief [16] 04 Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: As of November 7, the weekly asphalt production was 532,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons. The operating rate was 29.7% as of November 5, down 1.8 percentage points. Supply pressure is expected to decline [17][25] - Demand: As of November 7, the weekly asphalt shipment was 445,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons. The modified asphalt capacity utilization rate was 10.42%, down 4.6 percentage points from last week. Demand is facing weakening pressure [26][29] - Inventory: As of November 7, the factory inventory was 641,000 tons, a decrease of 44,000 tons; as of October 24, the social inventory was 1,005,000 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons [36][43] - Spread: As of November 7, the weekly asphalt processing dilution profit was - 593.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58.8 yuan/ton. The basis was 321 yuan/ton, and the asphalt - to - crude ratio was 53.09 as of November 5 [52] 05 Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue its weak trend due to the lack of positive drivers. Avoid chasing short positions. Focus on the BU2601 contract in the range of 2950 - 3140 yuan/ton [54]

Group 1: Report Summary - This week, coking coal and coke showed relative resilience in the black steel industry chain, maintaining a sideways oscillation. The macro - level disturbances eased, and the market gradually returned to trading based on its own fundamentals. The strong performance of coking coal was mainly driven by the rising price of thermal coal, reduced inventory pressure on mining enterprises, limited supply increase, and the expectation of winter storage, which released price elasticity. However, the decline in steel mill profitability and hot metal production restricted the upward space of coking coal prices. The short - term futures market is expected to maintain a slightly bullish oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the rhythm and intensity of downstream winter storage. As hot metal production gradually declined, coke consumption decreased, but production also dropped, resulting in a relatively balanced supply - demand pattern. The third round of coke price hikes has been implemented, slightly improving the loss of coke enterprises, but they are still in the loss range, and the fourth round of price hikes has been initiated. High furnace material prices have continuously reduced steel mill profitability, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises. Steel mills will resist price hikes more strongly, limiting the profit space of coke enterprises. The subsequent price hike space of coke depends on the upward range of coking coal, and the futures market fluctuates with coking coal [6]. - As of November 4, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.82%, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 61.22%, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points, and that of housing construction projects was 53.19%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38 percentage points. Since November 10, 2025, China has suspended the 15% additional tariff on imported coking coal from the United States, and the import tariff has dropped to 13%. Thailand has launched an anti - circumvention investigation into hot - rolled steel plates from China [7]. - Domestic coking coal supply has slightly shrunk. Upstream coking coal inventory has slightly increased, but the pressure is not significant. Independent coke enterprises have slightly replenished coking coal, while steel mills have maintained just - in - time procurement. Coke production has slightly decreased. Hot metal production has declined, leading to lower coke consumption. The third round of price hikes has been implemented, slightly improving the loss situation [7]. Group 2: Bull - Bear Focus - Bullish factors include low inventory pressure of coking coal, strong performance of thermal coal prices, and the expectation of industry winter storage. Bearish factors are the weakening profitability of steel mills, low willingness to replenish raw material inventory, and the decline in hot metal production due to environmental protection factors [10]. Group 3: Data Analysis - As of the week of November 7, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 83.76%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.02%, and the daily average output was 73.83 tons, a decrease of 2.01 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 37.61%, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%, and the daily average output was 27.53 tons, an increase of 1.01 tons. As of the week of November 1, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port rebounded but was slightly lower than the same period last year. Overall, the supply of coking coal has limited room for increase [13]. - As of the week of November 7, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 165.59 tons, an increase of 1.06 tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 294.97 tons, an increase of 10.55 tons; and the port coking coal inventory was 304.27 tons, an increase of 14.12 tons. The downstream replenishment rhythm of coking coal has slowed down, and the inventory depletion rate has decreased, resulting in a slight increase in weekly inventory, but the mine inventory pressure has been significantly reduced [15]. - As of November 7, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coke enterprises was 1070.02 tons, an increase of 17.54 tons. The available inventory days were 12.65 days, an increase of 0.4 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory of independent coke enterprises was 58.3 tons, a decrease of 1.57 tons. This week, the production and sales of independent coke enterprises were relatively balanced, inventory decreased, and the willingness to replenish coking coal remained, but the replenishment amplitude was narrower than before [18]. - As of November 7, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 787.3 tons, a decrease of 9.02 tons. The available inventory days were 12.84 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory was 626.64 tons, a decrease of 2.41 tons compared with the previous period, and the available days were 11.07 days, a decrease of 0.5 days. Recently, the profitability of steel mills has continuously declined, and the willingness to replenish raw materials is weak, mainly for just - in - time procurement [22]. - As of November 7, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coke enterprises was 72.31%, a decrease of 1.13% compared with the previous period, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 63.59 tons, a decrease of 1 ton compared with the previous period. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 84.99%, a decrease of 0.22% compared with the previous period, and the daily average coke output was 46.09 tons, a decrease of 0.12 tons compared with the previous period. As downstream consumption weakened, coke production also decreased, resulting in a relatively balanced supply - demand pattern [24]. - As of the week of November 7, China's coke consumption was 105.4 tons, a decrease of 0.96 tons. From the data of 247 steel enterprises, the daily average hot metal output was 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons. Recently, hot metal production has gradually declined, and coke consumption has also decreased, but it is still in a relatively high range [26]. - As of November 7, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coke enterprises was a loss of 22 yuan/ton. The third round of price hikes has been implemented, slightly improving the loss. However, high raw material prices have continuously reduced steel mill profitability. As of November 7, the profitability of 247 steel enterprises was 39.83%, a further decrease of 5.19% compared with the previous period. The decline in steel mill profitability will intensify the game between steel and coke enterprises, and steel mills will resist price hikes more strongly, delaying the implementation of the next price hike or reducing the possibility of implementation, thus limiting the profit space of coke enterprises [28]. - The spot and futures prices of coking coal and coke maintained a slightly bullish oscillating trend [30]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The strong performance of coking coal is mainly driven by the rising price of thermal coal, reduced inventory pressure on mining enterprises, limited supply increase, and the expectation of winter storage, which releases price elasticity. However, the decline in steel mill profitability and hot metal production restricts the upward space of coking coal prices. The short - term futures market is expected to maintain a slightly bullish oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the rhythm and intensity of downstream winter storage [33]. - As hot metal production gradually declines, coke consumption decreases, but production also drops, resulting in a relatively balanced supply - demand pattern. The third round of coke price hikes has been implemented, slightly improving the loss of coke enterprises, but they are still in the loss range, and the fourth round of price hikes has been initiated. High furnace material prices have continuously reduced steel mill profitability, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises. Steel mills will resist price hikes more strongly, limiting the profit space of coke enterprises. The subsequent price hike space of coke depends on the upward range of coking coal, and the futures market fluctuates with coking coal [36].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The natural rubber market is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock, while the synthetic rubber market is expected to show a weakening shock. Attention should be paid to the widening price gap between natural and synthetic rubber [6][28]. Summary by Directory Report Summary (PART 01) - Market Focus: From November 5th to 11th, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber - producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared to the previous period. In October, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%, with a penetration rate of 58.7%. The China Logistics Prosperity Index in October was 50.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5 percentage points [6]. - Fundamental Situation: The price support of natural rubber raw materials is weakly stable, with a slight inventory build - up. The price of butadiene, the raw material for butadiene rubber, is weakening, and the industrial profit is shifting downstream. The inventory of butadiene rubber is decreasing, and the overall tire capacity utilization rate is stable [6]. - Main View: This week, the natural rubber futures showed a narrow - range weakening shock, and the synthetic rubber futures dropped significantly. The cost support of natural rubber is stronger than that of synthetic rubber. The price of natural rubber raw materials is relatively firm due to weather factors, while the cost support of synthetic rubber is weakening. The downstream tire demand is stable, and the inventory and demand have limited impact on the market [6]. Multi - Empty Focus (PART 02) - Bullish Factors: The inventory pressure of natural rubber is not obvious, and the price of natural rubber raw materials has support [9]. - Bearish Factors: The price of butadiene, the raw material for synthetic rubber, is falling, and the weakening of synthetic rubber prices drags down natural rubber [9]. Data Analysis (PART 03) - Natural Rubber Raw Material Price: As of November 6th, the price of Thai raw material glue was 56.3 Thai baht/kg, the price of glue in Yunnan was 13,700 yuan/ton, and that in Hainan was 12,900 yuan/ton. The raw material price is weakly stable due to weather and low procurement enthusiasm [10]. - Natural Rubber Inventory: As of October 31st, 2025, the overall natural rubber inventory increased slightly. The inventory in bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 400 tons, while that in general trade warehouses increased by 15,839 tons [14]. - Butadiene and Butadiene Rubber: Recently, the price of butadiene has dropped. The theoretical production profit of butadiene rubber has increased to 712.5714 yuan/ton as of November 7th. As of the same date, the production of high - cis butadiene rubber decreased by 352 tons, and the inventory in factories and among traders decreased [15][16][19]. - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of November 7th, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%. The overall tire inventory fluctuated slightly [20]. - Rubber Contract Spread: As of November 6th, the spread of the "RU - NR" January contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spread of the "NR - BR" main contract was strong due to the weakening cost support of synthetic rubber [23]. 后市研判 (PART 04) - The macro - level disturbances have eased this week, and the market has returned to trading based on fundamentals. The cost support of natural rubber is stronger than that of synthetic rubber. The weakening of synthetic rubber prices drags down natural rubber. Natural rubber will maintain a range - bound shock, and synthetic rubber will show a weakening shock [28].

Report Information - Report Title: Spiral Ore Industry Chain Monthly Report - Report Date: October 31, 2025 - Author: Wang Nan - Company: AVIC Futures [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In November, the key agreement between China and the US is expected to continue to boost market sentiment, and the gradual formation of the 15th Five - Year Plan in China enhances the development confidence of the ferrous metal industry. However, after the macro - level benefits are realized, the market may return to the fundamental logic. The steel market still faces high - inventory pressure, and the resolution of the inventory contradiction may depend on production cuts. The iron ore market is expected to be in high - level oscillation, with prices first falling and then rising [83][86]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review - **Steel**: In October, steel prices continued to bottom out. At the end of the month, driven by positive macro - factors such as the expectation of Sino - US talks and the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan, steel prices gradually increased. Spot prices were relatively stable, with limited demand improvement and high inventory pressure in the peak season, and the later rise was mainly driven by macro - factors and cost support. The basis declined [5]. - **Iron Ore**: In October, iron ore prices fluctuated widely, first falling and then rising. Initially, they were dragged down by weak steel demand, concerns about increased arrivals and declining hot - metal production. But in late October, with the improvement of macro - expectations, iron ore prices rebounded and showed a stronger trend. The basis returned to normal [7]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **Overseas**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% - 4.00%, and decided to end the balance - sheet reduction from December 1. However, Fed Chair Powell's hawkish speech put pressure on the market, and the probability of a December interest - rate cut dropped to 67.8%. At the beginning of the month, the US federal government shutdown remained unresolved, and Sino - US trade frictions escalated, but then the two sides resumed negotiations, and the market risk appetite improved [10][11][12]. - **Domestic**: In the third quarter, China's GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, lower than expected. In September, the manufacturing PMI declined, indicating a weakening of domestic demand. The 15th Five - Year Plan focuses on building a modern industrial system, strengthening scientific and technological self - reliance, and expanding domestic demand, which will have a profound impact on the demand structure of bulk commodities [20][29][30]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis **Terminal Demand** - **Real Estate**: In September, real estate investment and sales remained weak. Investment, new construction, and completion areas all declined year - on - year, and housing prices continued to fall. The 15th Five - Year Plan aims to promote the high - quality development of the real estate industry, and it is expected that housing prices will stabilize and rebound in the future [37]. - **Infrastructure**: In 2025, the growth rate of infrastructure investment continued to decline. In September, the issuance of new special bonds decreased. The 15th Five - Year Plan emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system and the improvement of infrastructure [40]. - **Automobile**: In September, China's automobile production and sales reached a record high for the same period. New - energy vehicles were the main driving force for market growth. The joint issuance of the "Automobile Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" by eight departments provided support for the market [43]. - **Excavator**: In September, the production of excavators continued to grow. The domestic and foreign sales of construction machinery products increased year - on - year, benefiting from the equipment replacement cycle, policy support, and improved downstream demand [46]. - **Export**: In September, China's exports increased year - on - year, mainly due to the low - base effect and global demand resilience. However, with the increase in the base in October and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff policies, export growth may decline. Steel exports still have price advantages but face challenges from trade barriers [47][48]. **Supply - Side** - **Production**: In the first nine months of 2025, China's crude - steel and pig - iron production decreased year - on - year. In October, the blast - furnace and electric - furnace operating rates of steel mills declined, and the production of hot - rolled coils remained at a high level [52][57]. - **Profit**: Recently, the prices of furnace materials have risen, and the profitability of steel mills has declined, but they have not reached the point of active production cuts [53]. - **Inventory**: In October, the steel market was in the peak season, but inventory did not decrease effectively. After the National Day holiday, the rapid resumption of production by steel mills and the slow release of terminal demand led to a rapid increase in the inventory of five major steel products. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased, and the inventory pressure needs to be alleviated [63]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for rebar weakened, while that for hot - rolled coils still showed resilience [66]. - **Iron Ore Import and Shipment**: In September, China's iron - ore imports increased. In October, the global iron - ore shipment slowed down. The production and sales of the four major iron - ore mines in the third quarter were divergent, and the expected increase in the fourth quarter is limited [69][70]. - **Hot - Metal Production**: Since October, hot - metal production has declined slightly but remains at a high level. Due to the inventory accumulation of downstream steel products, there is an expectation of a further decline in hot - metal production, which may put pressure on iron - ore prices [75]. - **Inventory**: In October, port iron - ore inventory gradually accumulated, while steel - mill inventory decreased after a seasonal increase during the holiday [79]. 4. Future Outlook - **Steel**: In November, the steel market may return to the fundamental logic after the macro - level boost fades. The high - inventory problem needs to be solved, and the resolution may depend on production cuts. The demand for building materials is weak, and it is difficult to improve in the future [83]. - **Iron Ore**: In November, iron - ore prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, first falling and then rising. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the downstream steel - product inventory problem may lead to a decline in hot - metal production, but the iron - ore price decline is limited, and prices may rise with the increase in winter - storage demand [86].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of alumina will remain under pressure, but the support from the cost line is gradually emerging, and the room for further decline may be limited. In the short term, the alumina futures price may fluctuate at a low level. - The price of electrolytic aluminum has the characteristic of being "easy to rise and hard to fall" in the medium and long term. In November, whether the aluminum price can continue to rise depends on the sustainability of inventory reduction and the acceptance of high aluminum prices by downstream users. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended. - The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation in the short term, and attention should be paid to the raw material supply situation and the rhythm of demand recovery. [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Outlook - Alumina: The short - term marginal supply of domestic bauxite is tightening, but there is supplementation from imported ores, and the supply is not significantly tight. The price of imported ores is slightly weak. The operating capacity of alumina is at a high level, but the release of new capacity still takes time. Some alumina enterprises in Shanxi, Henan, and Guizhou are close to the break - even point or in a loss state. Considering the possible impact of the heating season in November, attention should be paid to changes in the supply side. - Electrolytic aluminum: The expectation of loose liquidity will be the theme of the macro - market in November. The Fed cut interest rates in October, but a second rate cut in December is "far from a foregone conclusion". After the resolution of the US government shutdown, attention should be paid to US economic data for further guidance. The long - term nature of the competition and game between China and the US is a certainty, but the two sides have a "one - year truce", and concerns about Sino - US trade issues have significantly eased in the short term. The unexpected production cut of an Icelandic smelter highlights the structural problems such as the power bottleneck in the global electrolytic aluminum capacity release. The 45 - million - ton capacity ceiling in China limits the long - term supply elasticity. On the demand side, the loose liquidity environment brought by the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle provides medium - and long - term upward momentum for aluminum prices. - ADC12: The spot price of ADC12 has risen synchronously, with significant cost - side support. The continuous shortage of scrap aluminum supply has pushed up the procurement cost. The supply side is restricted by insufficient raw material circulation and regional policy uncertainty, and some enterprises are operating at a low load. The demand side maintains stable resilience and shows a mild recovery trend. The inventory continues to decline, and the cost rigidity support and the tight supply - demand balance jointly drive the price to strengthen, but high inventory and policy uncertainty still pose constraints. [6] 2. Market Review - In October, the futures prices of alumina and electrolytic aluminum showed a divergent trend. The alumina futures price generally showed a trend of bottom - building in oscillation, falling from a maximum of 2,913 yuan/ton to a minimum of 2,760 yuan/ton. The futures prices of electrolytic aluminum and cast aluminum alloy both increased, with the maximum price of electrolytic aluminum reaching 21,425 yuan/ton and that of cast aluminum alloy reaching 20,920 yuan/ton. [7][8] 3. Macroeconomic Aspects - Sino - US trade: In the short term, concerns about Sino - US trade issues have significantly eased. Although the US announced some trade - restrictive measures in October, through the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur and the meeting between the leaders of the two countries, the two sides reached consensus on many issues, including the cancellation of some tariffs and the suspension of some export control measures for one year. - Industry development: The Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee and the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal have boosted market confidence. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association called on enterprises to prevent "involution - type" vicious competition and ensure the safety of the industrial chain and supply chain. [12][13][18] 4. Fundamental Aspects - Alumina: The long - term oversupply situation of alumina remains unchanged. In September, China's alumina production was 774,600 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. The cumulative production from January to September was 6.6836 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.8%. The new capacity is expected to be concentratedly released in the first quarter of 2026. Attention should be paid to the risk of production cuts caused by the heating season, winter stockpiling, and weak spot prices. - Electrolytic aluminum: In September, the weighted average full cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry was 15,918 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 193 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the industry rose to 4,849 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 301 yuan/ton. The production in September was 381,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The operating capacity and the proportion of molten aluminum in the industry both increased slightly. As of the end of September, the national electrolytic aluminum production capacity was about 4.584 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 4.406 million tons, both showing a slight increase. Overseas, the sudden production cut of an Icelandic smelter and the possible shutdown of an Australian smelter may cause market concerns about the unstable power supply of overseas aluminum. - Aluminum processing: The operating rates of aluminum processing enterprises are differentiated. The overall operation is stable, with an overall operating rate of 62.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1%. Among them, the operating rate of aluminum profiles is 53.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.2%; the operating rate of aluminum sheets and strips is 67.0%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0%; the operating rate of aluminum foils is 71.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.4%. - Downstream demand: - Photovoltaic: The new installed capacity of photovoltaic is expected to continue to grow. From January to September 2025, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic was 240.27 GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35%. In September, the new installed capacity was 9.66 GW, a month - on - month increase of 31.25%. - Real estate: The real estate market is restricted by structural factors, with weak overall investment and purchase demand. From January to September, the construction area, new construction area, and sales area of real estate all decreased year - on - year. - Automobile: The automobile industry continues to maintain high prosperity. In September, the production and sales of automobiles were 3.276 million and 3.226 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. The production and sales of new energy vehicles also increased significantly. - Home appliances: The home appliance market has entered a seasonal off - season. In September, the production of major home appliances such as air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, and color TVs showed different trends. In October, the domestic and export production schedules of household air conditioners decreased year - on - year. - Inventory: Both domestic and foreign exchange inventories are decreasing. The LME aluminum inventory continues to decline, and the SHFE aluminum inventory decreased slightly in the week of October 24. Since mid - October, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has started to decline. As of October 30, the main market electrolytic aluminum inventory in China was 605,000 tons, lower than the same period in 2024. - Recycled aluminum: The production of recycled aluminum remained stable from September to October. As of October 23, the operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry was 58.6%, unchanged week - on - week. The shortage of scrap aluminum resources has led to a slight decline in the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy last week. In September, the import of unforged aluminum alloy decreased by 13.2% year - on - year. As of October 31, the social inventory and factory inventory of recycled aluminum alloy both decreased week - on - week, indicating a turning point in inventory. [28][30][34][40][46][51][56][59][61][65][67][70][74]

Group 1: Market Review - In October, natural rubber showed a "first decline then rise" trend, while synthetic rubber was weak. The main contract of natural rubber (RU) had a monthly increase of 0.37% with a decrease of 444 hands in positions; the main contract of 20 - rubber (NR) had a monthly increase of 1.07% with a decrease of 11,713 hands in positions; the main contract of synthetic rubber (BR) had a monthly decrease of 4.73% with an increase of 13,654 hands in positions [6]. - After the National Day holiday, multiple macro - factors led to a significant increase in the "gold" sector, and industrial products were under pressure. Rubber followed the adjustment. After the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, the macro - expectation improved, and rubber recovered its previous decline. The synthetic rubber declined significantly due to the cost collapse caused by the sharp decline of butadiene [6]. Group 2: Data Analysis Natural Rubber Raw Material Price - As of October 30, the glue price in Thailand was 56 Thai baht/kg, the cup - glue price was 53.3 Thai baht/kg, the glue price in Yunnan, China was 14,100 yuan/ton, and the raw material price in Hainan was 13,100 yuan/ton. Since October, affected by rainfall, rubber tapping was difficult, and raw material prices were strong, providing cost support. In November, if rainfall eases, the upside of raw material prices is limited; otherwise, cost support remains [8]. Natural Rubber Import Volume - In September 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65%. The top three import sources in September were Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia, with imports of 215,200 tons, 144,000 tons, and 55,600 tons respectively, all with significant month - on - month increases [10]. Rubber Inventory - As of October 24, the spot inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 68,705 tons, slightly decreased from the beginning of the month but increased by 14,780.8 tons compared with the same period last year; the general trade spot inventory was 363,524 tons, slightly decreased from the beginning of the month and increased by 85,478.52 tons compared with the same period last year; the domestic third - party inventory was 1,038,951 tons, slightly decreased from the beginning of the month and decreased by 1,634 tons compared with last year. Overall, the domestic natural rubber inventory decreased in October, and the inventory structure continued to improve [13]. Butadiene Price and Production Profit of Butadiene Rubber - In October 2025, the domestic butadiene market price declined. The supply was expected to be loose, and the inventory of upstream and downstream enterprises increased, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction. The decline of butadiene price improved the production profit of butadiene rubber enterprises. As of the week of October 31, the theoretical production gross profit of butadiene rubber enterprises was 153.714 yuan/ton, an increase of 48.43 yuan/ton compared with the same period last year, and turned from loss to profit compared with the beginning of October [15]. Butadiene Rubber Inventory - In October, the output of butadiene rubber enterprises was 137,579 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,269 tons and a year - on - year increase of 26,703 tons. Due to limited downstream demand, the inventory of enterprises was under pressure to decline. As of the week of October 31, the inventory of sample butadiene rubber production enterprises was 27,200 tons, an increase from the beginning of the month and an increase of 3,400 tons compared with the same period last year. The inventory of traders continued to decline, but still increased compared with the same period last year [18]. Tire Export - In September 2025, China's truck and bus tire export volume was 400,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.86% and a year - on - year increase of 8.74%. The cumulative export volume from January to September was 3.6279 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.67%. The export volume of passenger car tires was 260,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.28% and a year - on - year increase of 2.87%. The cumulative export volume from January to September was 2.5008 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.26% with a narrowing increase. The export of truck and bus tires to the EU decreased by 25.70% month - on - month and 23.58% year - on - year, and the export of passenger car tires to the EU decreased by 38.9% month - on - month and 22.9% year - on - year, mainly due to the EU's anti - dumping policy [19]. Tire Inventory - As of the end of October, the inventory turnover days of all - steel tires were about 39.01 days, a decrease of about 0.2 days compared with the same period last year, and the inventory turnover days of semi - steel tires were about 44.82 days, an increase of about 8.33 days compared with the same period last year. After the "Double Festival" holiday in October, tire enterprises resumed production, but due to trade frictions, the export orders faced pressure, and the overall inventory declined slowly. The inventory pressure of all - steel tires was relatively small, while that of semi - steel tires was large [21]. Tire Capacity Utilization - As of October 31, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.34%, a year - on - year increase of 6.15%. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.12%, a year - on - year decrease of 7.61%. After the holiday, the production capacity gradually recovered to the pre - holiday level. In the short term, the tire capacity utilization rate is expected to remain stable. The early snow in some areas stimulated the demand for snow tires, but the weak external demand and inventory pressure will limit the further increase of capacity utilization [23]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Macro - disturbances are expected to gradually decrease, and the market will return to fundamental expectation games - The short - term support from weather in rubber - producing areas exists, but the core contradiction is the combination of supply growth expectation and demand weakening risk. The seasonal supply increase due to improved weather in rubber - producing areas is the main pressure source. The EU's anti - dumping policy has led to a decline in tire exports, and domestic demand lacks bright performance. The cost collapse of synthetic rubber and its linkage effect will also drag down the price of natural rubber - In the short term, natural rubber will mainly fluctuate within a range. Pay attention to the development of Sino - US trade relations and US tariff policies, the weather in Southeast Asian main - producing areas on the supply side, and the start - up rate of domestic tire enterprises, inventory de - stocking, and the progress of the EU's anti - dumping policy on the demand side [27]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the double - coking futures showed a unilateral oscillating upward trend. The coking coal price was driven by limited output release and downstream rigid procurement, while coke followed coking coal with slightly weaker elasticity [7]. - Macroeconomic events in October boosted market sentiment. The Sino - US leaders' meeting and relevant policy documents provided positive signals for the market [10][11]. - In the long - term, the coal industry will shift from scale expansion to high - quality development, which will control the disorderly increase in coal supply and may lift the price floor [38]. - The coking coal market has limited supply growth space and low inventory pressure. However, the decline in steel mill profitability and hot metal production may drag on the upward elasticity of coking coal prices. The futures market is expected to remain oscillatingly strong [38]. - Coking enterprises have increased prices multiple times to relieve losses, but the subsequent price increase space is limited due to low steel mill profits and high finished product inventories, and coke prices follow coking coal [41]. 3) Summary by Directory 01. Market Review - In October, the coking coal main contract rose 14.21% with an increase of 119,000 lots in open interest, and the coke main contract rose 9.49% with a decrease of 1,887 lots in open interest. Coking coal supply was limited by environmental and safety factors, and downstream rigid procurement led to inventory depletion. Coke "had pressure on the upper side and support on the lower side" and followed coking coal [7]. 02. Data Analysis - **Macro Analysis**: In October, major macro - events such as the Sino - US leaders' meeting and the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal boosted market sentiment. The proposal guides the coal industry towards high - quality development and the manufacturing industry towards building a modern industrial system [10][11]. - **Domestic Coking Coal Supply**: As of the week ending October 31, the operating rates and daily outputs of sample coal washing plants and mines were lower than the same period last year. After the National Day, the domestic coking coal supply was relatively stable with limited growth space [13]. - **Coking Coal Imports**: In September 2025, China's coking coal imports increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Imports from Mongolia, Russia, and Australia all showed growth, and Mongolia's imports are expected to continue rising [14]. - **Inventory Status**: As of the week ending October 31, the inventories of sample mines, coal washing plants, and ports decreased compared with the same period last year. The overall coking coal inventory pressure was not significant [21]. - **Inventory Replenishment Willingness**: As of October 31, independent coking enterprises had a stronger willingness to replenish coking coal inventory than steel mills. After the holidays, independent coking enterprises gradually replenished inventory, while steel mills mainly purchased on demand [24]. - **Coke Production Capacity Utilization**: As of the week ending October 31, the capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel mills showed a weakly stable trend, and the coke supply pressure was not significant [26]. - **Coke Demand**: As of the week ending October 31, steel mills' profitability declined, hot metal production was under pressure, and coke consumption slightly weakened but remained at a high level [29]. - **Coke Inventory**: As of the week ending October 31, the coke inventory pressure of independent coking enterprises, steel mills, and ports was not significant. Independent coking enterprises' production and sales were relatively balanced, steel mills reduced inventory after the holidays, and ports had a slight increase in cargo collection [32]. - **Coking Enterprises' Cost and Price Increase**: As of the week ending October 31, independent coking enterprises had an average loss of 32 yuan per ton of coke. Due to the rising coking coal price, coking enterprises raised prices three times, but the subsequent price increase space was limited [34][36]. 03. Future Outlook - From a macro perspective, the long - term development of the coal industry is favorable, and the coking coal futures market is expected to remain oscillatingly strong, but the decline in steel mill profitability and hot metal production may have a negative impact [38]. - Coking enterprises' subsequent price increase space is limited, and their profits are under pressure. Coke prices follow coking coal due to cost - side influence and low inventory pressure [41].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The oil price is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations. The weak fundamentals will continue to put pressure on the oil price, while the uncertainty of geopolitics will intensify market volatility. The "weak expectation" fundamentals will suppress the oil price performance, but the shale oil cost will provide psychological support, and the market's downward space may be limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the WTI crude oil range of $55 - 65 per barrel [7][55]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In October, the crude oil market showed a narrow - range fluctuation pattern under the game of long and short factors. At the beginning of the month, OPEC+ announced to maintain a small increase in production, and the intensification of Sino - US trade frictions suppressed the oil price from both supply and demand sides. At the end of the month, the US sanctions on Russian oil companies led to a rebound in the oil price. In the future, the weak fundamentals and geopolitical uncertainties will make the oil price continue wide - range fluctuations [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - **Sino - US Relations**: The Sino - US leaders' meeting and the positive results of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur have led to a warming at the macro - level. The US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and continue to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff for one year. Both sides will adjust relevant measures and extend some tariff exclusion measures [10]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Decision**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, but there is uncertainty about a December rate cut. After Fed Chairman Powell's "hawkish" speech, the probability of a December rate cut is expected to be 71%, lower than the previous 90%. If economic data further decline, it will strengthen the expectation of crude oil supply surplus and suppress the oil price [13]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: There were frequent geopolitical events in October, including US - Russia phone communication, US sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the EU's 19th round of sanctions on Russia. These sanctions have increased geopolitical risks, causing the oil price to rebound. However, the impact on Russian oil production and global supply is limited [14]. - **OPEC+ Production Policy**: OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. Saudi Arabia is the main force of the increase. The market expects OPEC+ to continue a small increase in production in the November meeting, which will put pressure on the oil price [16]. - **IEA Forecast**: The IEA raised the global crude oil supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day in 2025 and lowered the demand growth forecast by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day, maintaining the expectation of supply surplus [17]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - OPEC+ production increased in September. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran were the main contributors to the increase. OPEC+ is expected to fully implement the 2.2 million barrels per day production increase in the fourth quarter [19]. - US crude oil production reached a record high of 13.644 million barrels per day in the week ending October 24. The US oil drilling rig count increased slightly, but the rebound was limited, and it is expected to remain at a low level [22][24]. - **Demand Side** - In September, the US manufacturing PMI declined, and the Chicago PMI decreased slightly, which suppressed crude oil demand. The US refinery operating rate is expected to increase seasonally in the fourth quarter [26][32]. - In September, China's manufacturing PMI rebounded but remained below the boom - bust line. The operating rates of Chinese refineries showed differentiation, and domestic crude oil consumption faces the pressure of a phased decline [40][44]. - **Inventory** - US EIA crude oil inventories and strategic petroleum reserve inventories decreased in the week ending October 24. Cushing crude oil inventories and gasoline inventories also decreased, but gasoline may face inventory accumulation pressure at the end of the fourth quarter [48][53].