1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, under the game of low inventory and weak consumption and with the weakening of the US dollar index, the aluminum price will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the 21,000 integer mark above [53]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: The overall output of electrolytic aluminum fluctuates little; the US dollar index weakens; the exchange inventory continues to decline; geopolitical risks ease [8][9][13]. - **Bearish factors**: There is an expectation of weakening demand; the spot premium declines [8]. 3.2 Data Analysis - **Supply**: China's electrolytic aluminum output in May 2025 was 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The current national electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is about 44.15 million tons, with an operating rate of 97.7%, and subsequent increments are limited [19]. - **Aluminum cost**: China's alumina output in May 2025 was 7.488 million tons. Although there were some production cuts in some areas, the alumina output is expected to continue to rise due to subsequent restarts and new capacity releases [22]. - **Aluminum product output**: China's aluminum product output in May 2025 was 5.762 million tons, a slight month - on - month decline and lower than the same period last year, affected by policies and the off - season [25]. - **Aluminum downstream consumption**: Affected by the high aluminum price and the deepening of the off - season, the average weekly operating rate of processing enterprises decreased by 0.6% to 59.8%. The real estate market is still in the bottom - seeking stage, while the new energy vehicle market is growing rapidly, and the overall automobile export growth rate has increased significantly in May [28][32][36]. - **Inventory**: Both domestic and foreign exchange inventories, as well as the social inventory of aluminum ingots, are declining. As of June 26, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major Chinese markets was 460,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from Monday [40][46]. - **Aluminum water conversion rate**: Under the guidance of the dual - carbon policy, the proportion of aluminum water has reached a historical high, changing the inventory structure of the aluminum industry [43]. - **Premium**: On June 26, the average premium of Shanghai Wuma Aluminum decreased, and the LME aluminum premium changed to a discount [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Zinc: The Shanghai zinc futures continue to rebound. - Lead: Supported by the cost of recycled lead and with signs of demand recovery, the lead price is clearly supported. Attention should be paid to the resistance level at 17,500 [61]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Multi - Empty Focus 3.1.1. Zinc - Bullish factors: The US index is expected to decline, and there are disturbances in the supply side overseas. - Bearish factors: Zinc ingot inventory has a slight increase [7]. 3.1.2. Lead - Bullish factors: There is a regional shortage in the supply of recycled lead, the price of waste batteries has increased, and social inventory has decreased. - Bearish factors: Consumption has not significantly recovered [10]. 3.2. Data Analysis 3.2.1. Zinc - **Import of zinc ore concentrates**: In May 2025, China's import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 491,522.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% and a year - on - year increase of 85.28%. The supply from major countries decreased, but other countries increased their supply, resulting in the May import volume being basically the same as that of the previous month. Recently, the import zinc ore processing fee has been rebounding, and there is an expectation of a marginal loosening of the ore supply [12]. - **Processing fees**: In June, the average domestic zinc concentrate TC increased by 150 yuan/metal ton month - on - month to 3,650 yuan/metal ton, and the average imported ore TC increased by 10 dollars/dry ton month - on - month to 55 dollars/dry ton. The short - term weekly processing fees were relatively stable. The CZSPT released the guidance price range for the US dollar processing fee for imported zinc concentrates before the end of the third quarter of 2025: 80 dollars (average) - 100 dollars (average)/dry ton [15]. - **Zinc concentrate prices**: The price of 50% zinc concentrate in Hechi increased by 210 yuan/ton to 17,060 yuan/ton compared with last week; the price of 50% zinc concentrate in Chenzhou increased by 240 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton [20]. - **Zinc production**: In May 2025, China's zinc production was 583,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. In June, there were both new capacity releases and production resumptions, as well as some production cuts due to maintenance [23]. - **Refined zinc import**: In May 2025, China's refined zinc import volume was 26,716.511 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%. Kazakhstan was the largest supplier, and Australia was the second - largest supplier [26]. - **Automobile market**: In May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.27 million and 1.307 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 35% and 36.9% respectively. The new energy vehicle sales accounted for 48.7% of the total vehicle sales, reaching a new high. In May, China's total vehicle exports were 551,000, a month - on - month increase of 6.6% and a year - on - year increase of 14.5% [30]. - **Zinc inventory**: The LME zinc inventory has been continuously declining since reaching a three - month high on April 17, and the latest inventory level is 119,850 tons, a two - month low. The SHFE zinc inventory increased in the week of June 20, with a weekly decrease of 1.79% [33]. 3.2.2. Lead - **Lead futures and cash**: This week, the lead futures and cash prices continued to rise, the basis was 135 yuan/ton, and the premium range expanded. The price difference between 1 lead and recycled refined lead was 290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the refined - scrap price difference was strengthening [37]. - **Lead concentrate prices and processing fees**: The weekly price of 60% lead concentrate in Kunming fluctuated by 50 yuan/ton; the weekly price of 60% lead concentrate in Baoji decreased by 42 yuan/ton. As of June 20, the lead concentrate processing fee in Jiyuan was 900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared with last week; the lead concentrate processing fee in Chenzhou was 400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton compared with last week; the lead concentrate processing fee in Gejiu was 400 yuan/ton, the same as last week [41]. - **Lead production**: In May 2025, China's lead production was 649,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7%. In June, more electrolytic lead smelting enterprises were under maintenance, while some recycled lead smelters were expected to resume production and some planned to increase production [45]. - **Lead industry operating rates**: The operating rate of primary lead smelters increased to 70.79% month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled lead enterprises decreased by 4.1 percentage points to 32.1% month - on - month. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises increased by 11.8 percentage points to 72.19% month - on - month [48][50][54]. - **Lead inventory**: As of June 26, the LME lead inventory decreased, with the latest level at 273,250 tons. The SHFE lead inventory increased by 1.24% to 51,929 tons in the week of June 20. As of June 26, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 56,000 tons, the same as on June 19 and an increase of more than 300 tons compared with June 23 [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term copper market may continue to fluctuate strongly, and the subsequent performance of downstream consumption still needs to be monitored [50]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased to 236,000, lower than the expected 245,000, while the number of continued jobless claims rose to 1,974,000, the highest since November 2021 [5]. - The annualized quarterly rate of the real GDP final value in the US in the first quarter decreased by 0.5%, higher than the expected decrease of 0.2%, showing the first contraction in three years, and personal consumption final value only increased by 0.5% [5]. - Geopolitical conflicts between Israel and Iran eased, and the impact on copper supply and transportation weakened. Trump planned to arrange a Fed chair before Powell's term ended and promote rapid interest - rate cuts [5]. - The basic copper index decreased compared with last week. The supply - side disturbances of copper smelting continued, and the domestic copper concentrate processing fee remained low. The estimated output of electrolytic copper decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The domestic electrolytic copper inventory decreased, and the low inventory continued to support the short - term copper price [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: The domestic TC maintained a low - level weak quotation, the spot premium strengthened, the US dollar index weakened significantly, and the geopolitical risk eased [8][9][12]. - **Bearish factors**: The demand performance was weak [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Supply - side data** - China's copper ore and concentrate imports in May were 2.3952 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.55% and a year - on - year increase of 6.61%. The deliveries from Chile and Peru both declined [15]. - As of the week of June 20, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 43.8 US dollars per dry ton, a decrease of 0.64 US dollars per dry ton compared with last week. The domestic copper concentrate processing fee remained low [19]. - In May, the actual domestic electrolytic copper output was 1.1417 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 16.33%. The output in June is expected to remain high [21]. - China's scrap copper imports in May were 185,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.53%. The deliveries from Thailand, Japan, and the US all declined [24]. - **Demand - side data** - As of June 26, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around - 900 yuan per ton, which was beneficial to refined copper consumption [28]. - In May, the domestic copper strip output was 210,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.46% but still higher than the same period last year [32]. - In May, the domestic refined copper rod output was 840,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.78% and a year - on - year increase of 23.43%. The domestic recycled copper rod output was 201,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89% and a year - on - year increase of 7.82% [36]. - In May, China's total automobile exports were 551,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.6% and a year - on - year increase of 14.5%. Among them, new - energy vehicle exports were 212,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.1% and a year - on - year increase of 120% [40]. - **Inventory and Premium Data** - The LME copper inventory continued to decline last week, the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1.1% in the week of June 20, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on June 26 decreased by 100 tons compared with June 23 [43]. - On June 26, the spot premium of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper was around 70 yuan per ton, showing a decline, while the LME 0 - 3 spot premium increased significantly [47]. 3.4后市研判 The short - term copper market may continue to fluctuate strongly, and the subsequent performance of downstream consumption still needs to be monitored [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the price of tin will fluctuate with a bias towards strength. Tin ore supply remains tight, though long - term supply recovery is clear. Demand is mixed, with some sectors like photovoltaic showing weakness, while new energy vehicle consumption is strong. [5][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Report Summary - US initial jobless claims decreased, and continuing claims reached the highest level in years. The US Q3 GDP had a quarterly contraction greater than expected, and consumer spending also declined. The conflict between Israel and Iran eased, reducing supply concerns. Market confidence in economic growth was insufficient, and the metal index fell. Tin ore supply remained tight, and the复产 rhythm of Burmese mines might slow. Supply recovery was clear in the long - term but uncertain in the short - term. On the demand side, photovoltaic tin strip orders declined, and overall demand was lackluster. [5] 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Tin ore and scrap supply remained tight, inventory decreased, and the US dollar index dropped significantly. [7] - **Bearish Factors**: Consumption in electronics and automotive electronics was sluggish, and photovoltaic module production declined significantly. [7] 3.3 Data Analysis - **Global Supply and Demand**: In April 2025, global refined tin production was 29,800 tons, consumption was 30,400 tons, with a supply shortage of 600 tons. From January - April 2025, production was 119,400 tons, consumption was 111,700 tons, with a supply surplus of 7,700 tons. In April 2025, global tin ore production was 27,600 tons, and from January - April, it was 103,700 tons. [9] - **Price and Basis**: This week, tin futures prices strengthened. The basis of Shanghai tin was 1,340 yuan/ton, and the premium increased. The LME tin premium was 96 US dollars/ton, and the discount strengthened. [12] - **Smelter Operating Rate**: As of last Friday, the combined operating rate of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi dropped to 47.05%. Yunnan had some plants for maintenance and reduction, and Jiangxi's rate declined significantly, about 35 percentage points lower than at the beginning of the year. Future operating rates might remain low or decline. [15] - **Import Data**: In May 2025, China's tin ore imports were 13,400 tons (about 6,518 metal tons), a 36.39% month - on - month and 59.84% year - on - year increase. From January - May, cumulative imports were 50,200 tons, a 36.51% year - on - year decrease. The increase in May was mainly due to Africa. [18] - **Production Data**: In May 2025, domestic refined tin production was 14,670 tons, a 0.3% month - on - month and 8.34% year - on - year decrease. From January - May, cumulative production was 72,900 tons, a 0.75% year - on - year decrease. In June, production is expected to be around 13,800 tons. [21] - **Import and Export Data**: In May, China's tin ingot imports were 2,076 tons, an 84.04% month - on - month and 225.9% year - on - year increase. Exports were 1,770 tons, an 8.19% month - on - month increase. Cumulative imports and exports from January - May were 9,584 tons, with a 38.48% year - on - year increase. [24] - **New Energy Vehicle Data**: In May, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million respectively, a 35% and 36.9% year - on - year increase. From January - May, production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million respectively, a 45.2% and 44% year - on - year increase. [28] - **Solder Operating Rate**: In April, the solder operating rate was 76.7%, a 0.89% month - on - month increase and 2.7% year - on - year decrease. Large and medium - sized solder plants had an upward trend, while small ones were weak. [30] - **Inventory Data**: The latest LME tin inventory was 2,115 tons, the lowest in two years. As of the week of June 20, Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 1.99% to 6,965 tons, the lowest in three months. [34] 3.4后市研判 - The price of tin is expected to fluctuate with a bias towards strength. [36]

Report Summary - The rubber market rebounded this week due to improved macro - sentiment, but the rebound was limited by fundamental pressures. The raw material cost support weakened, and the downstream tire demand was expected to be weak. The price was supported below by short - term macro - sentiment improvement, and future focus should be on weather and tire demand changes [6]. Market Focus Positive Factors - In May, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.93 million, a year - on - year increase of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 10%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 8.802 million, a year - on - year increase of 9%. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 2.329 million, a year - on - year increase of 14% and a month - on - month increase of 6%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 10.797 million, a year - on - year increase of 12%. The auto consumption index in May 2025 was 81.6, slightly higher than the previous month, and the market in June was expected to be basically flat or slightly increase compared with May [7]. - The weekly rainfall in the world's main natural rubber producing areas decreased, and the rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas in the next two weeks would also decrease, reducing the impact on rubber tapping [7]. - The call between Chinese and US leaders improved the macro - atmosphere [7][10]. - The probability that the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged in June was 97.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut was 2.5%. In July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 67.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 32.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut was 0.8% [7]. Negative Factors - The price of natural rubber raw materials weakened [7]. - The inventory in Qingdao decreased slightly [7]. - The price of butadiene, the raw material of butadiene rubber, was weakly stable [7]. - Butadiene rubber traders reduced their inventory slightly, while factories showed a trend of inventory accumulation [7]. - The overall capacity utilization rate of tires declined [7]. Multi - Empty Focus Bullish Factors - The call between Chinese and US leaders improved the macro - atmosphere [10]. Bearish Factors - The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises was weak [10]. - The expectation of rubber tapping recovery weakened the support of natural rubber raw materials [10]. Data Analysis Natural Rubber Raw Material Price - As of June 5, the price of fresh glue in Thailand was 56 Thai baht/kg, the cup - lump price was 44.7 Thai baht/kg, and the glue price in Yunnan, China was 12,700 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials at home and abroad decreased compared with the previous week, and the cost support of rubber weakened [12]. Qingdao Inventory - As of the week of May 30, the spot inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 86,887 tons, a decrease of 3,607 tons, and the general trade spot inventory was 522,778 tons, a decrease of 1,312 tons. The downstream restocked before the Dragon Boat Festival, driving a slight reduction in inventory [13]. Butadiene Price - This week, the domestic butadiene market fell slightly and then stabilized. The demand side dragged down the market, but some device overhauls and limited imports supported the market. As of June 5, the delivered price in the central Shandong region was about 9,400 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank price in the main ports of East China was about 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton. As of the week of June 6, 2025, the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 934.2857 yuan/ton, and the price decline increased the loss of production enterprises [15]. Butadiene Rubber Inventory - As of the week of June 6, the factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 28,300 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous week, and the trader inventory was 5,800 tons, a decrease of 680 tons from the previous week. The downstream restocking enthusiasm was not high [17]. Tire Capacity Utilization - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires was 55.65%, a decrease of 5.15% from the previous week, and the available inventory days in Shandong factories were 41.87 days, a decrease of 0.09 days. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires was 64.05%, a decrease of 8.46% from the previous week, and the available inventory days in Shandong factories were 45.84 days, a decrease of 0.38 days. Affected by the Dragon Boat Festival, the capacity utilization rate decreased. The replacement demand for all - steel tires may increase with rising temperatures, but the space was limited due to low freight prices. The inventory structure of all - steel tire enterprises improved compared with last year, while the inventory reduction of semi - steel tire enterprises was still difficult [19]. Contract Spread - As of June 5, the spread of the "RU - NR" September contract showed a convergence trend, and the spread of the "NR - BR" September contract fluctuated within a range [21]. Market Outlook - The future tire demand is expected to be weak, and the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is difficult to reach the high level of the same period last year. The cost support of raw materials has weakened, but the macro - sentiment has been improved by the call between Chinese and US leaders. Overall, the downstream demand is weaker than last year, limiting the upside of prices. The raw material support has weakened in the short term, but the prices are supported below by short - term macro - sentiment improvement. Future focus should be on weather and tire demand changes [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc price's box - style oscillation pattern awaits a breakthrough, while the lead price is expected to remain volatile. Attention should be focused on the price trend of waste batteries [4][64]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Report Abstract - The US ADP employment increase in a certain month was 1.37 million, lower than the expected 1.5 million and the previous value of 2.625 million, reaching the lowest level in years. The market focused on this data [4]. - China's manufacturing PMI in a certain month was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the critical point. It was the first time to fall below the critical point in a certain period [4]. - The European Central Bank mentioned continued small - scale interest rate cuts, and countries would increase investment in national defense and infrastructure, providing support on a broader macro - level [4]. - The China Zinc Raw Material Joint Negotiation (Coordination) Group announced the guidance price range for imported zinc concentrate procurement fees in the third quarter of 2025 [4]. - The supply of zinc raw materials remained loose, and the zinc ingot output might have a large - scale increase. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly, and the low inventory supported the zinc price [4]. - The supply of recycled lead was unstable, and the inventory of lead ingots in the national market increased. The consumption of waste batteries was weak, and the lead price was expected to remain volatile [4]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus 3.2.1 Multi - and Short - Factors Analysis (Zinc) - Bullish factors: The output of domestic and foreign zinc mines may accelerate in June, and the zinc ingot output ratio may have a large - scale increase, and the social inventory has decreased [7]. - Bearish factors: The consumption end is weak [7]. 3.2.2 Multi - and Short - Factors Analysis (Lead) - Bullish factors: The supply of recycled lead is still unstable [10]. - Bearish factors: The operating rate of primary lead enterprises is high, the price of waste batteries is running weakly, and the off - season consumption has not improved significantly [10]. 3.3 Data Analysis 3.3.1 Zinc - Related Data - In April, China's zinc ore concentrate imports were 494,662.21 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 37.64% and a year - on - year increase of 72.63%. The supply from major countries increased, and Australia became the top supplier [12]. - In June, the average domestic zinc concentrate TC increased by 150 yuan/metal ton to 3,650 yuan/metal ton, and the average imported ore TC increased by 10 dollars/dry ton to 55 dollars/dry ton. The China Zinc Raw Material Joint Negotiation (Coordination) Group released the guidance price range for imported zinc concentrate procurement fees [15]. - The price of zinc concentrate slightly increased. The price of 50% zinc concentrate in Hechi was 17,930 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous week; in Chenzhou, it was 17,700 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous week [20]. - In April, China's refined zinc output was 576,000 tons, down 39,000 tons from March, with a year - on - year slight increase of 0.3%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 2.333 million tons, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.9%. Due to the increase in zinc ore processing fees, the smelter's production profit was repaired [23]. - In April, refined zinc imports were 28,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.66%. From January to April, the cumulative imports were 129,200 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 9.44% [26]. - Policies such as the new energy vehicle countryside campaign and urban renewal were introduced, which may have an impact on the consumption of zinc in related industries [30]. - As of June 5, the LME zinc inventory was 137,150 tons, down 1.44% from the previous week. The SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 4% to 42,310 tons in the week of May 30. As of June 5, the zinc ingot inventory in the national main markets was 58,300 tons, down 900 tons from June 3 [33]. 3.3.2 Lead - Related Data - This week, the lead futures and spot prices rebounded after hitting the bottom. The basis was 55 yuan/ton, and the premium range narrowed. The price difference between 1 lead and recycled refined lead was 110 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous week [38]. - The weekly price of 60% lead concentrate in Kunming decreased by 257 yuan/ton, and in Baoji, it decreased by 251 yuan/ton. As of May 30, the lead concentrate processing fees in different regions changed, with some decreasing and some increasing [42]. - In April 2025, the lead concentrate imports were 111,046 physical tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 22.1%. As of 2025, the cumulative lead concentrate imports were about 448,700 physical tons, with a year - on - year increase of 41%. In April, the refined lead imports were 4,734 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 65% [46]. - In April 2025, China's lead output was 664,000 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 1%. Both primary lead and recycled lead production decreased in April, but some enterprises resumed production in May [48]. - The operating rate of primary lead increased by 5.98 percentage points to 66.26%. The operating rate of recycled lead enterprises increased by 10.94 percentage points to 62.91%, and the operating rate of lead batteries increased by 1.99 percentage points to 74.34% [51][53][57]. - Last week, the LME lead inventory decreased after a large - scale increase, and the SHFE lead inventory decreased by 3.98% to 46,500 tons in the week of May 30. As of June 5, the national main market lead ingot social inventory was 50,800 tons, up 3,900 tons from June 3 [61]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The zinc price's box - style oscillation pattern awaits a breakthrough; the lead price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to the price trend of waste batteries [64].

Report Summary - The synthetic rubber outperformed natural rubber this week. The rise of synthetic rubber was mainly due to the sharp increase in the price of butadiene. For natural rubber, recent weather affected the tapping progress, leading to less raw material output and high purchase prices, strengthening cost support. On the demand side, tire companies' production resumed after the holiday, but the capacity utilization had limited upside as the inventory removal was still difficult and had not recovered to last year's level. Macroscopically, the substantial progress in the Sino - US tariff negotiation and the significant reduction of mutual tariffs exceeded market expectations, and the pessimistic sentiment was repaired. In the short term, the rubber market was supported by raw material prices but pressured by demand, and would mainly fluctuate as macro disturbances gradually subsided [6][24]. - The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the tariff measures on imported goods from the US since May 14, 2025. The tariff rate in Announcement No. 4 of 2025 was adjusted from 34% to 10%, and the 24% tariff was suspended for 90 days. The tariff measures in Announcement No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025 were stopped [7]. - In April 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.619 million and 2.59 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 8.9% and 9.8%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 1.251 million and 1.226 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 43.8% and 44.2%. In April, automobile exports reached 517,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [7]. - Since the implementation of the automobile trade - in policy in 2024, the cumulative subsidy applications exceeded 10 million. As of May 11, 2025, the subsidy applications reached 3.225 million, with over 53% for new energy vehicles [7]. - The weekly rainfall in global natural rubber producing areas increased, and the rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas would increase in the next two weeks, affecting tapping [7]. - The price of natural rubber raw materials was strong. Qingdao Port's inventory increased while the general trade inventory decreased. The butadiene price rose rapidly, increasing the losses of butadiene rubber producers. The inventory of butadiene rubber factories and traders decreased. The overall tire capacity utilization rebounded [7]. Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors included strong raw material prices strengthening cost support and the significant reduction of mutual tariffs between China and the US. Bearish factors were the difficult inventory removal of tire companies suppressing capacity utilization and the difficult inventory removal in Qingdao [10]. Data Analysis - As of May 15, the price of fresh glue in Thailand was 61.75 Thai baht/kg, and the cup lump price was 54.15 Thai baht/kg. The glue price in Yunnan, China, was 13,800 yuan/ton. The raw material prices at home and abroad moved up compared with last week. Weather affected the tapping progress, resulting in less output and high prices, strengthening cost support [12]. - As of the week of May 9, the spot inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 89,994 tons, an increase of 5,003 tons, and the general trade spot inventory was 528,699 tons, a decrease of 497 tons. After the holiday, the macro - sentiment and the recovery of downstream production drove some terminal purchases, but the inventory in Qingdao fluctuated slightly [13]. - This week, the domestic butadiene market rose rapidly. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs drove up the prices of commodities and related products in the butadiene industry chain. The port inventory decreased, some devices had unplanned maintenance, and merchants held back goods, tightening the supply. The market's unexpected rise stimulated downstream chasing sentiment, but as the price reached a high level, downstream buying became cautious. As of May 15, the delivery price in the central Shandong region was 11,200 - 11,600 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was 10,600 - 10,800 yuan/ton. As of the week of May 16, 2025, the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 700 yuan/ton [15]. - As of the week of May 16, the factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,650 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from last week, and the trader inventory was 5,470 tons, a decrease of 430 tons. The easing of the macro - atmosphere this week boosted the spot trading sentiment, and both factory and trader inventories decreased [17]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the capacity utilization of all - steel tires was 59.88%, an increase of 18.19% from last week, and the inventory - available days of all - steel tires in Shandong factories were 42.77 days, an increase of 0.25 days. The capacity utilization of semi - steel tires was 71.21%, an increase of 24.5% from last week, and the inventory - available days of semi - steel tires in Shandong factories were 45.78 days, an increase of 0.69 days. After the holiday, production resumed, but the capacity utilization had limited upside as the inventory removal was difficult and had not recovered to last year's level [19]. - As of May 15, the spread of the "RU - NR" September contract was weak. Affected by the short - term strength of synthetic rubber, the spread of the "NR - BR" September contract declined [21]. Market Outlook - The rise of synthetic rubber was due to the sharp increase in butadiene prices. For natural rubber, weather affected tapping, strengthening cost support. On the demand side, tire companies' production resumed but the capacity utilization had limited upside as inventory removal was difficult. Macroscopically, the Sino - US tariff negotiation improved market sentiment. In the short term, the rubber market was supported by raw material prices but pressured by demand, and would mainly fluctuate as macro disturbances gradually subsided [24].

原油月报 ——宏观情绪缓和 静待OPEC+会议 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2025-04-30 04 后市研判 行情PA回RT顾01 宏观叠加基本面利空 原油价格大幅下跌 4月份原油价格在宏观层面叠加基本面利空的影响下，跌破前期低点并创2021年8月以来新低， 此后在宏观压力边际转弱及OPEC+扩大补偿减产规模的利好支撑下，原油价格企稳反弹，但是宏观 层面的利空并未实质消除，特朗普政策的关税政策对全球经济的冲击逐渐显现，全球主要经济体经 济数据环比走弱，同时，OPEC+产量政策转向及内部分歧的影响下，原油中长期供应宽松的格局难 以逆转，原油价格再次承压，存在二次探底的风险。 宏观PA分RT析02 关税压力缓和 不确定依旧存在 Ø 开启关税战。2025年4月3日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署两项关于"对等关税"的行政令，宣布美国对贸易伙伴设立10%的"最低基准关税"， 并对某些贸易伙伴征收更高关税。 Ø 暂缓对等关税执行。北京时间4月10日凌晨，美国总统特朗普在其Truth Social社交媒体上发帖称，将对一些国家暂停征收"对等关税"，在90 天内对多数国家关 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic asphalt market shows marginal improvements in supply and demand, but fundamental pressures remain. The supply continues to increase, with a 4% month - on - month increase in April production. The demand shows initial signs of recovery, with a 15.5% month - on - month increase in April asphalt shipments. The macro situation has short - term marginal improvements, but long - term uncertainties persist. The cost of asphalt is supported by the short - term crude oil market. Overall, the asphalt price is likely to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to focus on the BU2506 contract in the range of 3340 - 3550 yuan/ton and choose to short on rebounds [71]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In April, asphalt prices first declined and then rebounded, showing a significant overall decline. Affected by macro negatives and OPEC+ unexpected production increases during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the outer - market crude oil prices dropped sharply, causing asphalt to open at the daily limit down on the first trading day after the holiday and reach a new low for the year. In the middle and late April, as the macro - pessimistic sentiment eased and OPEC+ expanded compensatory production cuts, oil prices were supported, and asphalt prices rebounded and fluctuated widely [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 Divergence in Interest - Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed is likely to continue to pause interest - rate cuts due to high economic uncertainties and inflation risks. After the release of the March CPI data, traders increased bets on a 100 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed by the end of the year. However, Fed Chairman Powell's "hawkish" speech reduced market expectations for interest - rate cuts. The market generally expects the Fed to start cutting rates in June and cut rates 3 - 4 times by the end of 2025, with a cumulative cut of 75 - 100 basis points. The difference in expectations between the market and the Fed may lead to increased volatility in risk assets [9][10]. 3.2.2 Tariff Pressures - In April, the Trump administration's tariff policies led to macro negatives and increased global economic uncertainties. The suspension of the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on April 10 eased the pessimistic sentiment to some extent, but the uncertainty of tariff policies still impacts the market and investor confidence [11]. 3.2.3 OPEC+ Actions - In April, eight OPEC+ members announced a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day in May. At the same time, an updated compensatory production - cut plan was announced, with an increase of 369,000 barrels per day in the cumulative production - cut scale. However, due to Kazakhstan's production policies and potential issues with production - cut implementation efficiency, the actual effect of the compensatory production cuts remains to be seen [15]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - As of April 25, the cumulative asphalt production in April was 1.752 million tons, a 4% month - on - month increase and a 5.8% year - on - year increase. The refinery operating rate has rebounded, and the supply is under pressure. As of April 23, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 30.7%, up 2 percentage points from the previous period, with significant increases in Shandong, Central, and North China regions [16][24]. 3.3.2 Demand - As of April 25, the asphalt shipments in April were 1.371 million tons, a 15.5% month - on - month increase. The demand is gradually recovering, but the growth rate is lower than the supply growth rate. In the first quarter of 2025, the cumulative investment in domestic transportation fixed assets increased by 5.2% year - on - year. The utilization rate of modified asphalt production capacity has rebounded, which is expected to support asphalt demand [25][32][33]. 3.3.3 Import and Export - In March, domestic asphalt imports were 264,000 tons, a month - on - month increase but a year - on - year decrease. The average import price decreased. Exports were 62,800 tons, a month - on - month increase, and the average export price also decreased [42][45]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of April 25, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises decreased by 15,000 tons week - on - week, while the social inventory increased by 28,000 tons week - on - week to 4.211 million tons, with a growth rate of 2.01% [55][62]. 3.3.5 Price Spread - As of April 25, the domestic asphalt processing dilution weekly profit was - 619.8 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 157.8 yuan/ton. The asphalt - to - crude - oil ratio rebounded to 55.76 as of April 28. There is a risk of further decline in processing dilution profit [69].

汪楠 从业资格号：F3069002 投资咨询号：Z0017123 中航期货 2025-04-25 目录 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 焦煤焦炭周度报告 | 报告摘要 | PART 01 1. | 美方高级官员透露，特朗普政府正考虑多种方案。第一种方案，对中国商品征收的关税税率可能降至大约50%-65%。第 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 二种方案则被称为"分级方案"，美方将把进口自中国的商品分为所谓"对美国国家安全不构成威胁"和所谓"对美国 | | | | 国家利益具有战略意义"的商品。 | | | 2. | 国际货币基金组织（IMF）发布的4月《世界经济展望报告》显著调降全球经济增速，并警告贸易紧张局势的迅速升级和 | | | | 极高的政策不确定性预计将对全球经济活动产生重大影响。IMF基于截至4月4日公布的关税措施的参考预测，全球经济 | | 市场焦点 | | 增长率将在2025年降至2.8%，在2026年降至3%，显著低于今年1月预测的两年均为3.3%。 | | | 3. | 中共中央政治局会议：用好更积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，适时降 ...