铜产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-11-21 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 | 业 业 （ 1 ） 美 国 9 月 非 农 就 人 口 增 长 1 1. 9 万 人 是 预 期 的 两 倍 多 但 7 月 和 8 月 非 农 就 人 数 合 计 下 修 3. 3 万 人 9 月 | | --- | | 。 ， ， 失 业 率 意 外 升 至 4. 4 % 为 2 0 2 1 年 1 0 月 以 来 最 高 市 场 焦 点 ， 。 一 （ 2 ） 中 国 央 行 将 年 期 和 五 年 期 贷 款 市 场 报 价 利 率 （ L P R ） 分 别 维 持 在 3 % 和 3. 5 % 不 变 为 连 续 六 个 月 保 持 不 变 ， 。 宏 观 面 美 国 9 月 非 农 数 据 喜 忧 参 半 市 场 仍 在 等 待 更 多 数 据 指 引 美 联 储 官 员 讲 话 最 近 整 体 偏 鹰 市 场 对 于 1 2 ， ， ， ， 月 继 续 降 息 的 押 ...

Report Summary - The decline of the double - coking futures market this week was larger than last week. Since November, the coking coal futures market has gradually weakened. Affected by the National Development and Reform Commission's winter supply - guarantee meeting on November 11, the market's expectation of tight supply has loosened, with a large decline on that day. Subsequently, due to the lack of policy - driven expectations, the spot market was affected by the futures market sentiment, and the transaction price weakened synchronously. With the approaching contract change of the main contract, the delivery pressure on the near - month contract increased, and the downward pressure on the futures market intensified. In the short term, the expected increase in supply and the limited restocking by downstream industries due to poor profitability in the steel industry chain have weakened the support for the futures market. However, due to the significant inventory reduction by mining enterprises in the early stage, their inventory pressure is not large, so the downward space for the futures market is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the futures market. After the fourth price increase of coke was implemented and the price of coking coal declined, the profit of coke enterprises has improved, but the profitability of steel mills has been continuously suppressed. The decrease in the profit rate of steel enterprises will intensify the game between steel and coke enterprises. Steel mills will resist further price increases by coke enterprises, reducing the possibility of further price increases. If the price of coking coal回调s, steel mills may even initiate price cuts to seek profits from coke enterprises. The futures market should focus on the support level of coking coal, as it is significantly affected by the trend of coking coal [6]. Market Focus Fundamental Overview - As of November 18, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.8%, a weekly increase of 0.04 percentage points. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 61.11%, a weekly increase of 0.05 percentage points; the capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 53.29%, a weekly increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capital availability rate has stopped declining slightly, and the construction progress of some projects in East China has slightly accelerated, but the number of newly started projects is small. As of November 16, the cumulative import and export freight volume at the Ganqimaodu Port was 35.8326 million tons, including 33.8984 million tons of imported coal. The port has completed 80% of its 2025 cargo volume target, with a remaining gap of about 8.7 million tons for coal. The three major ports will be closed on November 26 for the anniversary of the founding of Mongolia and will resume customs clearance on November 27 [7]. Main Views - The supply of coking coal has increased slightly, but the increase is limited. - The inventory reduction of coking coal has been sluggish, but the absolute inventory pressure is not large. - The willingness of independent coke enterprises to replenish coking coal inventory has weakened, and steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement of raw materials. - The overall coke production is weakly stable. - There is still room for the decline of hot metal production, and the growth space for coke consumption is limited. - The profit of coke enterprises has improved, while the profit of steel mills is under pressure [7]. Multi - and Short - Focus Analysis | Long Factors | Short Factors | | --- | --- | | The increase in coking coal supply is limited, and inventory pressure is not large | The profit rate of steel mills is continuously declining, and there is an expectation of a decline in hot metal production | | As winter storage approaches, downstream industries have an expectation of restocking | The National Development and Reform Commission's winter supply - guarantee meeting has revised the market's expectation of the supply side of coal | | | Due to delivery quality issues, the willingness of near - month long - position holders to take delivery is low | [10] Data Analysis Coking Coal Supply - As of the week of November 21, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.66%, and the daily average output increased by 0.06 million tons to 75.8 million tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 37.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13%, and the daily average output increased by 0.2 million tons to 27.63 million tons. As of the weekly statistics on November 15, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1.047195 million tons, with a slight decline in the early stage. Overall, the supply of coking coal has increased slightly, but the increase is limited [15]. Coking Coal Inventory - As of the week of November 21, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 1.8592 million tons, an increase of 0.2086 million tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 3.0283 million tons, an increase of 0.0201 million tons. The coking coal inventory at ports was 2.915 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons. This week, the domestic coking coal supply has increased. Affected by the price decline, downstream restocking has been postponed, and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong. The inventory reduction of upstream enterprises has been sluggish, and inventory has increased significantly in the past two weeks, but the absolute inventory pressure is not large [20]. Coking Coal Procurement by Coke Enterprises - As of November 21, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 10.3819 million tons, a decrease of 0.3078 million tons. Currently, the available inventory days for coke enterprises are 12.45 days, a decrease of 0.31 days from the previous period. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 0.6529 million tons, an increase of 0.0714 million tons. This week, independent coking enterprises have seen an increase in their own coke inventory, and their willingness to replenish coking coal inventory has weakened, maintaining a downward trend in inventory for two consecutive weeks [23]. Coking Coal Procurement by Steel Mills - As of November 21, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 7.9708 million tons, an increase of 0.0691 million tons. The available inventory days were 12.97 days, an increase of 0.1 days from the previous period. The coke inventory was 6.2234 million tons, a decrease of 0.0006 million tons from the previous period, and the available inventory days were 11.05 days, a decrease of 0.01 days from the previous period. Recently, the coking coal inventory of steel mills has slightly increased, but the increase is not large. Steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement, and the overall raw material inventory remains at a relatively low level [27]. Coke Production - As of November 21, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 71.71%, an increase of 0.07% from the previous period, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 0.6267 million tons, a decrease of 0.0033 million tons from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.23%, an increase of 0.09% from the previous period, and the daily average output of coke was 0.4622 million tons, an increase of 0.0005 million tons from the previous period. This week, the coke production of steel mills and independent coking enterprises has shown a weakly stable trend [28]. Coke Consumption - According to Steel Union data, as of the week of November 21, China's coke consumption was 1.0633 million tons, a decrease of 0.0027 million tons. From the data of 247 steel enterprises, the daily average output of hot metal was 2.3628 million tons, a decrease of 0.006 million tons. This week, the hot metal production has declined compared with last week, approaching the level of the same period last year. From a seasonal perspective, there is still some room for the decline of hot metal production, and the subsequent growth space for coke demand is limited [30]. Profitability of Coke Enterprises and Steel Mills - As of November 14, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 19 yuan/ton. Recently, after the fourth price increase of coke was implemented and the price of coking coal declined, the profit of coke enterprises has improved, but the profitability of steel mills has been continuously suppressed. As of November 21, the profit rate of 247 steel enterprises was 37.66%, a further decline of 1.3% from the previous period. The decrease in the profit rate of steel enterprises will intensify the game between steel and coke enterprises. Steel mills will resist further price increases by coke enterprises, reducing the possibility of further price increases. If the price of coking coal回调s, steel mills may even initiate price cuts to seek profits from coke enterprises [32]. Basis Structure of Double - Coking Futures and Spot - The delivery pressure is emerging, and the basis between futures and spot has widened [34]. Market Outlook - Since November, the coking coal futures market has gradually weakened. Affected by the National Development and Reform Commission's winter supply - guarantee meeting on November 11, the market's expectation of tight supply has loosened, with a large decline on that day. Subsequently, due to the lack of policy - driven expectations, the spot market was affected by the futures market sentiment, and the transaction price weakened synchronously. With the approaching contract change of the main contract, the delivery pressure on the near - month contract increased, and the downward pressure on the futures market intensified. In the short term, the expected increase in supply and the limited restocking by downstream industries due to poor profitability in the steel industry chain have weakened the support for the futures market. However, due to the significant inventory reduction by mining enterprises in the early stage, their inventory pressure is not large, so the downward space for the futures market is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the futures market [37]. - The coke production of steel mills and independent coking enterprises has shown a weakly stable trend, but the hot metal production has declined compared with last week, approaching the level of the same period last year. From a seasonal perspective, there is still some room for the decline of hot metal production, and the subsequent growth space for coke demand is limited. Recently, after the fourth price increase of coke was implemented and the price of coking coal declined, the profit of coke enterprises has improved, but the profitability of steel mills has been continuously suppressed. The decrease in the profit rate of steel enterprises will intensify the game between steel and coke enterprises. Steel mills will resist further price increases by coke enterprises, reducing the possibility of further price increases. If the price of coking coal回调s, steel mills may even initiate price cuts to seek profits from coke enterprises. The futures market should focus on the support level of coking coal, as it is significantly affected by the trend of coking coal [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - From November 12 - 18, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared to the previous period. The impact on rubber tapping varied in different regions. The synthetic rubber market stopped falling and stabilized this week, while natural rubber oscillated strongly to repair some previous losses. The domestic economic growth slowed down in October, and policy support is still needed. Natural rubber has cost - side support, with a slight inventory build - up and no obvious inventory pressure. The production of butadiene rubber has been high this year, with obvious inventory pressure in factories, suppressing price elasticity. Downstream tire demand is weakening, and the overall tire production utilization rate is weakly stable. Overall, natural rubber will mainly oscillate, and synthetic rubber will have a weak price trend. Attention should be paid to the widening price difference between natural and synthetic rubber [6][30] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Report Summary - From November 12 - 18, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia changed, affecting rubber tapping differently in different regions. The synthetic rubber market stopped falling, and natural rubber oscillated strongly. In October, the domestic economic growth slowed down, and policy support is needed. Natural rubber has cost - side support, with a slight inventory build - up. The production of butadiene rubber is high, and downstream tire demand is weakening. The market lacks prominent contradictions, and natural rubber will oscillate, while synthetic rubber will have a weak price trend [5][6] - In October, the sales of new energy vehicles in China accounted for 51.6% of the total new vehicle sales, with production and sales increasing year - on - year. The retail sales of passenger cars decreased year - on - year, and the wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars increased year - on - year [7] Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors: Natural rubber has no obvious inventory pressure and its raw material prices are supported. Bearish factors: The domestic economic data growth slowed down in October [10] Data Analysis - Economic data: In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and private fixed - asset investment decreased by 4.5% year - on - year. In October, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year [15] - Natural rubber raw material prices: As of November 13, the prices of raw materials in Thailand and domestic regions were at certain levels. The raw material prices were firm due to the approaching off - season in Yunnan and rain in overseas areas [16] - Natural rubber inventory: As of the week of November 7, 2025, the overall natural rubber inventory continued to build up slightly. The inventory in bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased, while that in general trade warehouses increased [20] - Butadiene rubber raw material and profit: The price of butadiene has stabilized recently, and the production profit of butadiene rubber has declined. As of the week of November 14, the theoretical production profit was 606.8571 yuan/ton, down 105.71 yuan/ton from last week [21] - Butadiene rubber inventory: As of the week of November 14, the production of high - cis butadiene rubber increased, the factory inventory increased slightly, and the trader inventory increased significantly [23] - Tire production utilization rate: As of the week of November 14, the production utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises decreased slightly, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased slightly. The inventory days of both increased [24] - Rubber contract price difference: As of November 13, the "RU - NR" January contract price difference oscillated narrowly, and the "NR - BR" main contract price difference was strong [26] 后市研判 - Macroscopically, the domestic economic growth slowed down in October, and policy support is needed. Fundamentally, natural rubber has cost - side support, with a slight inventory build - up and no obvious inventory pressure. Butadiene rubber has high inventory pressure, and downstream tire demand is weakening. Overall, natural rubber will oscillate, and synthetic rubber will have a weak price trend. Attention should be paid to the widening price difference between natural and synthetic rubber [30]

Report Summary - As of November 11, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.76%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non-housing construction projects decreased by 0.16 percentage points week-on-week, while that of housing construction projects increased by 0.05 percentage points week-on-week [5]. - The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season, emphasizing stable energy production and supply, including coal production, transportation, and power generation, and ensuring the fulfillment of medium - and long - term energy contracts [5]. - Domestic coking coal supply increased slightly, with low inventory pressure. Independent coke enterprises reduced coking coal inventory slightly, and steel mills maintained just - in - time procurement. Coke production was weakly stable, iron - water production increased, and coke consumption rose. The fourth round of price increase for coke was partially implemented, but the implementation time was postponed [5]. - This week, the double - coke futures market fluctuated weakly. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with funds gradually shifting to the far - month 05 contract. Attention should be paid to the intensity and rhythm of downstream winter storage and the impact of domestic stock market sentiment on intraday market fluctuations [5]. Market Focus Bullish Factors - Low inventory pressure of coking coal [8] - Strong performance of thermal coal prices [8] Bearish Factors - Slowdown in China's economic data growth in October [8] - The National Development and Reform Commission's winter energy supply guarantee meeting revised the expectation of coal supply [8] Data Analysis Macroeconomic Data - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,629.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. From January to October 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4,089.14 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 4.5% year - on - year. In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year [13]. Coking Coal Supply - As of the week of November 14, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.28%, a week - on - week increase of 2.52%, and the daily average output was 757,400 tons, an increase of 19,100 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal - washing plants was 37.43%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18%, and the daily average output was 274,300 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons. As of the week of November 8, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port increased [15]. Coking Coal Inventory - As of November 14, the coking coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 1.6506 million tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons; the coking coal inventory of 314 sample coal - washing plants was 3.0082 million tons, an increase of 58,500 tons; the coking coal inventory at ports was 2.985 million tons, a decrease of 57,700 tons [17]. - As of November 14, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coke enterprises was 10.6897 million tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons. The available days of inventory were 12.76 days, an increase of 0.11 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory of independent coke enterprises was 581,500 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons [20]. - As of November 14, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 7.9017 million tons, an increase of 28,700 tons. The available days of inventory were 12.87 days, an increase of 0.03 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory was 6.224 million tons, a decrease of 42,400 tons compared with the previous period, and the available days were 11.06 days, a decrease of 0.01 days compared with the previous period [24]. Coke Production and Consumption - As of November 14, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coke enterprises was 71.64%, a decrease of 0.67% compared with the previous period, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 630,000 tons, a decrease of 59,000 tons compared with the previous period; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.14%, an increase of 0.15% compared with the previous period, and the daily average output of coke was 461,700 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons compared with the previous period [26]. - As of the week of November 14, China's coke consumption was 1.066 million tons, an increase of 12,000 tons. The daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel enterprises was 236,880 tons, an increase of 26,600 tons [28]. Coke Price Increase - As of November 14, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coke enterprises was a loss of 34 yuan/ton, and the loss increased. The fourth round of price increase was gradually implemented. As of November 14, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 38.96%, a further decrease of 0.87% compared with the previous period. The decrease in the profitability rate of steel enterprises intensified the game between steel and coke enterprises, and steel mills postponed the implementation of the price increase, limiting the profit margin of coke enterprises [30]. Basis Structure of Double - Coke Futures and Spot - The spot prices of double - coke were firm, while the futures expectations weakened [32]. Market Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission's energy supply guarantee meeting revised the expectation of a tight coal supply - demand pattern. Macroeconomic data showed a slowdown in economic growth, and the market still needs policy support. In the short term, the market lacks positive drivers and will maintain a volatile trend, with funds gradually shifting to the far - month 05 contract. Attention should be paid to the intensity and rhythm of downstream winter storage and the impact of domestic stock market sentiment on intraday market fluctuations [34]. - This week, the increase in hot - metal production drove up coke consumption. The increase in the average loss per ton of coke promoted the implementation of the fourth round of price increase. The decrease in the profitability rate of steel enterprises intensified the game between steel and coke enterprises, postponing the implementation of the price increase and limiting the profit margin of coke enterprises. The futures market followed the fluctuations of coking coal [37]

铜产业链周度报告 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-11-14 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 | 告 | 摘 | 报 | 要 | A | 0 | 1 | P | R | T | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the asphalt futures market showed a narrow - range oscillation. There is a rebound - repair momentum after last week's sharp decline, and the relatively strong oil prices at the beginning of the week provided some support. The asphalt social inventory continued to decline. However, the market lacks bullish drivers and is expected to remain weak. As the asphalt downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are difficult to improve effectively, and the expectation of crude oil supply surplus will suppress the market in the medium - to - long term. The cost side offers limited upward support. In the short term, due to the large decline, there is still room for rebound - repair, and the increased volatility of crude oil will intensify short - term market fluctuations. It is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to the pressure in the range of 3130 - 3170 yuan/ton for the BU2601 contract [8][52] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Report Summary - Market focus: Tensions between the US and Venezuela continue, with the US increasing military operations in the Caribbean. The US EIA weekly crude oil inventory increased significantly, and the OPEC market expectation shifted from tight to surplus [7] - Key data: As of November 12, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 29%, a 0.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous statistical period. As of November 14, the weekly asphalt output was 51.4 tons, a decrease of 1.8 tons from the previous week; the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 64.1 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons from the previous week; the social inventory was 82.5 tons, a decrease of 7.2 tons from the previous week [7] 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - Bullish factors: Supply decline and geopolitical risks [11] - Bearish factors: Weakening demand [11] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - OPEC's monthly report shows that the global crude oil market expectation has shifted from balanced to surplus. Previously, OPEC expected a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day, but now it indicates a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day. OPEC has raised the supply growth forecast of non - OPEC countries by 110,000 barrels per day. In October, OPEC's crude oil production was 28.46 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 33,000 barrels per day, and OPEC+'s production was 43.02 million barrels per day, a decrease of 73,000 barrels per day from September. The global crude oil demand growth rate is expected to be 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026. From January to September this year, global oil inventories increased by 304 million barrels. The expectation of crude oil supply surplus is the main pressure on the market, but OPEC+ has suspended the production increase plan for the first quarter of next year, and the relatively strong demand provides some support. Geopolitical uncertainties will intensify oil price fluctuations, and it is expected that crude oil will maintain a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the WTI crude oil price range of $55 - $60 per barrel [12] - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and short - term negotiations are unlikely. The relationship between the US and Venezuela remains uncertain. Geopolitical uncertainties have not caused substantial losses to global crude oil supply for the time being, but they will affect market sentiment and intensify oil price fluctuations [13] 3.4 Supply - and - Demand Analysis - Supply: As of November 14, the weekly asphalt output was 51.4 tons, a decrease of 1.8 tons from the previous week. The operating rate of refineries is in a seasonal decline, and it is expected that the supply will continue to decrease [14] - Demand: As of November 14, the weekly asphalt shipment volume was 36.2 tons, a decrease of 8.3 tons from the previous statistical date, reaching the lowest level since May. The demand in the north has decreased due to low - temperature weather, and the improvement in the south is not obvious. The weekly capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt was 11.22%, a 0.8 - percentage - point increase from last week but a 0.55 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year. It is in a seasonal decline [24][27] - Inventory: As of November 14, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 64.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 tons, mainly in the southwest and south regions. The social inventory was 82.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.2 tons, continuing the downward trend since August [34][41] - Spread: As of November 14, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing dilution was - 613 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.8 yuan/ton from the previous week. The domestic asphalt basis was 301 yuan/ton, at a high level in recent years. As of November 12, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 52.38 [50] 3.5 Market Outlook - The market lacks bullish drivers and is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to the pressure in the range of 3130 - 3170 yuan/ton for the BU2601 contract [52]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The macro - situation has short - term positive exhaustion but remains optimistic in the medium - term. The end of the US government shutdown has a complex impact on the market. Domestically, the economy in October was generally stable with new kinetic energy growing. Fundamentally, overseas supply concerns support aluminum prices, but downstream demand is expected to weaken, and the aluminum price may face resistance at 22,000 and maintain high - level oscillations, awaiting more economic data [6][7] - The trading strategy is to expect the aluminum price to encounter resistance at 22,000, maintain high - level oscillations, and wait for more economic data [8] Summary by Directory Report Summary - The US government shutdown ended on November 12, 2025. The macro situation has short - term positive exhaustion, and the US employment data decline increases the expectation of a December interest rate cut. In China, the economy in October was generally stable, with social financing growth stable and the M2 - M1 gap widening [5][6] - Fundamentally, overseas supply concerns support aluminum prices, but downstream demand is expected to weaken after the traditional peak season. The aluminum price may face resistance at 22,000 and maintain high - level oscillations [7] Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: Market risk preference improves, the increase in positions and upward movement attract capital attention, and overseas aluminum supply and demand remain tight [11] - **Bearish factors**: The demand side shows signs of weakening, and social inventory destocking is not smooth [11] Data Analysis - **Aluminum ore supply**: In September 2025, China's domestic bauxite production was 488.21 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 2.32%. Supply was tight in the short term but is expected to recover significantly later. In September, China imported 15.88 million tons of bauxite, a month - on - month decrease of 13.2% and a year - on - year increase of 37.5%. The impact of the rainy season on imports will end in October [21][24] - **Alumina production**: In October 2025, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production increased by 2.4% month - on - month and 6.8% year - on - year. It is expected that there will be regional production cuts and maintenance in November, and the cost will continue to decline [26] - **Electrolytic aluminum production**: In October 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.13% year - on - year and 3.52% month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio increased. In November, production may be restricted by environmental protection policies, and the aluminum - water ratio is expected to decline slightly [30] - **Electrolytic aluminum cost and profit**: In September 2025, the weighted average full cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry was 15,918 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 193 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit reached 4,849 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 301 yuan/ton [34] - **Aluminum processing**: In the traditional peak season from October to November, the aluminum processing industry was under pressure due to high aluminum prices. The overall aluminum processing start - up rate was 61.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6% [38] - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory and SHFE aluminum inventory both decreased slightly. The social inventory of aluminum ingots was volatile, and as of November 13, it was 614,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from Monday [49][52] - **Premium and discount**: On November 13, the Shanghai Wumaomao aluminum average price premium and discount was - 10 yuan/ton, with the discount narrowing; the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium and discount was - 27.55 US dollars/ton, with the discount widening [56] - **Recycled aluminum**: In October, domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 645,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,000 tons. The start - up rate of small enterprises was only 13.82%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.52%. As of November 6, the start - up rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry was 59.1%, unchanged week - on - week [60][64] - **Aluminum alloy import**: In September 2025, the import of unwrought aluminum alloy was about 82,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12,500 tons (13.2%) and a month - on - month increase of 1,120 tons (15.77%). It is expected that the import increase in October will be limited and lower than the same period [68] - **Aluminum alloy inventory**: As of November 7, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 72,800 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from the previous week, and the in - factory inventory was 59,900 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons from the previous week [73] Future Outlook - **Aluminum alloy**: It follows the aluminum price trend. Attention should be paid to marginal changes in raw material circulation and signs of demand improvement [74] - **SHFE aluminum**: It may face resistance at 22,000 and maintain high - level oscillations, awaiting more economic data [76]

Report Summary - The report is a weekly crude oil report from AVIC Futures dated November 14, 2025 [2] - This week, oil prices first rose and then fell, showing an overall volatile and weak trend. The influencing factors of crude oil are mixed. Geopolitical disturbances provided support for oil prices at the beginning of the week, but the OPEC monthly report's shift in market expectations from tight to surplus intensified concerns about oversupply, causing sharp price fluctuations. In the short term, the expectation of oversupply is the main pressure on the market, but OPEC+'s suspension of the production increase plan for the first quarter of next year, strong demand, and geopolitical uncertainties provide support. The report expects crude oil to maintain a wide - range volatile trend [7] - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the WTI crude oil price range of $57 - 62 per barrel [8] Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors include geopolitical disturbances [10] - Bearish factors include the shift in OPEC market expectations and EIA inventory accumulation [10] Macroeconomic Analysis OPEC Report - OPEC's latest monthly report on November 12 shows that the global crude oil market expectation has shifted from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day. Non - OPEC supply growth expectations for this year are raised by 110,000 barrels per day, and the demand for OPEC crude in 2026 is lowered, indicating a pessimistic view on next year's demand [11] - In October, OPEC's crude oil production was 28.46 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 33,000 barrels per day, and OPEC+'s production was 43.02 million barrels per day, a decrease of 73,000 barrels per day from September, showing a slowdown in the pace of OPEC+ production increase [11] - The global crude oil demand growth rate forecast for 2025 is 1.3 million barrels per day, and for 2026 is 1.38 million barrels per day. From January to September this year, global oil inventories increased by 304 million barrels, with about 156 million barrels being marine crude oil [11] Geopolitical Situation - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with large - scale attacks on Ukrainian military and energy facilities. Short - term negotiations are unlikely as Russia is ready for talks but Ukraine has stopped relevant dialogues until the end of this year [12] - The US - Venezuela relationship remains uncertain, with the Trump administration not planning to launch an attack in Venezuela currently [12] - The global geopolitical situation is complex and uncertain. Although it has not caused substantial losses to global crude oil supply in the short term, it affects market sentiment and increases oil price volatility [12] Data Analysis Supply Side - As of the week ending November 7, US domestic crude oil production reached a record high of 13.862 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 211,000 barrels. There is a probability of further increase in production, and supply pressure will gradually emerge as the peak consumption season for refined oil ends [13] - As of the week ending November 7, the total number of US oil drilling rigs was 414, the same as the previous value. Due to factors such as capital expenditure contraction, resource grade decline, and policy adjustment, it is expected to remain at a low level this year [15] Demand Side - As of the week ending October 31, the US refinery utilization rate was 86%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 percentage points. The decline rate has slowed down, and it may reach a seasonal inflection point [18] - As of the week ending October 31, US crude oil demand decreased by 843,000 barrels per day week - on - week, while gasoline demand increased by 189,000 barrels per day [22] - In September, the refinery utilization rate of 16 European countries was 82.44%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.48 percentage points, and it is expected to face downward pressure at the beginning of the fourth quarter [24] - As of November 13, the operating rate of domestic state - owned refineries was 78.31%, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points from the previous period, entering the seasonal maintenance stage. The operating rate of local independent refineries was 61.97%, a decrease of 0.97 percentage points. The operating rate of state - owned refineries is expected to decline, while local refineries are expected to operate stably [30] - As of November 14, the comprehensive refining profit of domestic state - owned refineries was 704.12 yuan/ton, a recovery of 175.13 yuan/ton from the previous period, ending the continuous decline. The comprehensive refining profit of local independent refineries was 176.59 yuan/ton, a recovery of 41.64 yuan/ton [34] Inventory - As of the week ending November 7, the US EIA crude oil inventory was 6.413 million barrels, far exceeding the expected 1.96 million barrels and the previous value of 5.202 million barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 798,000 barrels, compared with the previous value of 498,000 barrels. EIA crude oil inventory may reach a phased inflection point [41] - As of the week ending November 7, the EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was - 346,000 barrels, and the gasoline inventory was 205 million barrels, a decrease of 9.4 million barrels from the previous period [46] Crack Spread - As of November 12, the crack spread of low - sulfur crude oil in Louisiana, US Gulf was $24.76 per barrel, showing a continuous increase. It indicates that although the refinery utilization rate has decreased, downstream consumption demand is still strong, which supports the crack spread. Attention should be paid to whether refineries will increase the utilization rate due to profit incentives [47] Market Outlook - The factors influencing crude oil remain mixed. OPEC+'s suspension of the production increase plan, geopolitical factors, and shale oil costs support the market, but OPEC's market expectation shift intensifies concerns about oversupply. The market lacks a clear driving force and is expected to continue a wide - range volatile trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the WTI crude oil price range of $57 - 62 per barrel [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The concerns about tight copper supply continue to provide support for copper prices, but the upward driving force of copper futures prices has weakened. It is recommended to establish long positions around 85,000 after the macro - economy stabilizes [14][16][47]. - The copper market is affected by both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include low inventory and tight supply at the mine end, while bearish factors include weak macro - economic sentiment, insufficient actual demand, and the strengthening of the US dollar [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The US economic data affects the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the US government shutdown may impact the economy. The copper market has both bullish factors such as tight mine supply and bearish factors like weak demand [9][11][7]. - China's copper imports, production, and demand show different trends. For example, copper concentrate imports have changes, and the production of some copper products is affected by factors such as maintenance and policies [16][21]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Low inventory and tight operation at the mine end, and the TC of copper concentrate remains at a low level, providing support for copper prices [7][14][17]. - **Bearish Factors**: Weak macro - economic sentiment, insufficient actual demand, and the strengthening of the US dollar due to the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [7][8][11]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Supply - side Data** - China's September copper concentrate imports were 2.5869 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.24% and a year - on - year increase of 6.43%. The supply from Chile decreased significantly, while that from Peru slightly increased [16]. - As of the week ending October 31, the weekly index of Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC was - 42.45 dollars per dry ton, a decrease of 0.79 dollars per dry ton from the previous week [18]. - In September 2025, China's electrolytic copper actual output was 1.1498 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% and a year - on - year increase of 14.48%. The output in October continued to decline due to factors such as smelter maintenance [21]. - **Demand - side Data** - China's September scrap copper imports were 184,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6% and a year - on - year increase of 14.8% [25]. - In September 2025, the domestic copper strip production was 196,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35%, ending four consecutive months of decline, but still lower than the same period last year [28]. - In September 2025, the domestic refined copper rod production was 849,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.18%, and the recycled copper rod production was 170,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04% [31]. - The real estate market is weak, with indicators such as construction area, new construction area, and sales area showing year - on - year declines [36][38]. - The new energy vehicle industry maintains a strong momentum. In September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with significant year - on - year and month - on - month increases [40]. - **Inventory and Premium Data** - London Metal Exchange copper inventory increased last week, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory increased in the week ending October 31, and domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased from November 3 to 6 [43]. - On November 6, the Shanghai Wumaotrade 1 copper spot changed from a discount to a premium of about 35 yuan per ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount widened to about - 30.96 dollars per ton [45]. 3.4 Market Outlook The upward driving force of copper futures prices has weakened. It is recommended to establish long positions around 85,000 after the macro - economy stabilizes [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market presents a complex situation with both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include relatively limited domestic supply increase, tight overseas supply - demand, and certain social inventory of aluminum ingots. Bearish factors are short - term macro concerns, weakening alumina prices, and overall weak downstream consumption due to high aluminum prices [8]. - The supply of domestic bauxite is expected to recover significantly after the end of the rainy season, while the import volume of bauxite may gradually increase as the rainy season in Guinea ends [14][18]. - The supply over - capacity expectation of alumina remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to unexpected disturbances on the supply side. The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in October, and the industry's profit expanded due to cost reduction and a slight increase in aluminum prices. However, high aluminum prices have suppressed downstream consumption, leading to a slight decline in the aluminum processing start - up rate [21][25][28]. - The real estate market is in a weak state with declines in construction area, new - start area, and sales volume. In contrast, the new energy vehicle industry maintains high prosperity, which may drive the demand for aluminum [33][37]. - The inventory situation is mixed, with foreign inventory rising and domestic inventory falling. The social inventory of aluminum ingots is still at a relatively low level, providing some support for aluminum prices [40][44]. - The price of recycled aluminum is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and the supply of aluminum alloy is expected to decrease, with the price following the upward trend of aluminum [60][61]. Summary by Directory Report Summary - Bullish factors for aluminum include limited domestic supply increase, social inventory of aluminum ingots, and tight overseas supply - demand. Bearish factors are short - term macro concerns and weakening alumina prices [8]. - Data has dampened the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the US dollar index has rebounded [9]. - The supply of domestic bauxite is currently tight but is expected to recover significantly after the end of the rainy season. The import volume of bauxite decreased in September due to the rainy season in Guinea and may gradually increase later [14][18]. Data Analysis - In September, China's alumina production was 7.746 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. From January to September, the cumulative production was 66.836 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.8% [23]. - In October, the production of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased year - on - year by 1.13% and month - on - month by 3.52%. The proportion of aluminum water in the industry increased by 1.4 percentage points to 77.7% [25]. - In September, the weighted average full cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry was 15,918 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 193 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the industry reached 4,849 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 301 yuan/ton [28]. - The start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 61.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 percentage points [30]. - From January to September, the real estate market showed a decline in construction area, new - start area, and sales volume. In contrast, the new energy vehicle industry maintained high prosperity, with production and sales increasing significantly [34][38]. - The inventory of LME aluminum increased to a nearly eight - month high, while the inventory of SHFE aluminum decreased to a two - and - a - half - month low. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased during the week and is still at a relatively low level [41][44]. - On November 6, the domestic spot premium and LME aluminum premium both widened [46]. - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy increased, but it is expected to decrease slightly in October due to the shortage of scrap aluminum. The start - up rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry increased in October, but there is significant differentiation within the industry [49][52]. - In September, the import of unforged aluminum alloy decreased year - on - year by 13.2%. The import volume in October is expected to increase slightly but be lower than the same period last year [55]. 后市研判 - The supply of aluminum alloy is expected to decrease, and as the automotive industry is still in the sales - boosting stage, the demand during the peak season is still expected. The price of aluminum alloy will follow the upward trend of aluminum [61].