Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The rubber market is under short - term pressure. The current fundamental contradictions of rubber are not prominent, but the reduction of weather interference during the peak tapping season may increase raw material supply pressure. Tariff disturbances, overseas economic conditions, and domestic economic recovery uncertainties lead to weak downstream demand expectations [6][26]. Section - by - Section Summary Report Summary (PART 01) - From October 15 - 21, 2025, rainfall in Southeast Asian natural rubber main producing areas changed compared to the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, rainfall in most areas was low, reducing the impact on tapping, while in the southern hemisphere, high - rainfall areas affected tapping in some regions [6]. - In September, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 17.1% and 14.9%. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.617 million and 1.604 million vehicles, with year - on - year growth of 23.7% and 24.6% [7]. - Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China, and then US Vice - President Vance sent some conciliatory signals. China and the US imposed port fees on each other's ships [7]. - The prices of natural rubber raw materials showed differentiation, and natural rubber continued to have a slight inventory reduction. The price of butadiene, the raw material for butadiene rubber, was weak, and the inventory of butadiene rubber was difficult to reduce. After the holiday, the overall tire production capacity utilization rate rebounded [6][7]. Multi - Empty Focus (PART 02) - Bullish factors: The inventory pressure of natural rubber is not obvious [10]. - Bearish factors: Reduced weather interference increases the expected supply of raw materials; the inventory of butadiene rubber is difficult to reduce; the intensification of Sino - US game and overseas uncertainties increase market risk aversion [10]. Data Analysis (PART 03) - Natural rubber raw material prices were differentiated. As of October 16, the price of Thai raw material glue was 54.1 baht/kg, and the cup - lump price was 50 baht/kg. The glue price in Yunnan was 13,500 yuan/ton, and in Hainan it was 12,900 yuan/ton. Rubber cost support was weak and stable [11]. - Natural rubber continued to have a slight inventory reduction. As of October 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1,080,481 tons, a decrease of 7,725 tons from the previous period [15]. - The price of butadiene, the raw material for butadiene rubber, was weak. As of October 15, the delivery price in the central Shandong region was around 8,520 - 8,630 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was around 8,250 - 8,300 yuan/ton. As of the week of October 17, the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 203 yuan/ton [16]. - The inventory of butadiene rubber was difficult to reduce. As of the week of October 17, the production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 30,042 tons, an increase of 53 tons from the previous week. The in - factory inventory was 27,900 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons, and the trader inventory was 4,860 tons, an increase of 840 tons [19]. - After the holiday, the overall tire production capacity utilization rate rebounded. As of the week of October 17, the production capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a week - on - week increase of 22.43% and a year - on - year increase of 4.98%. The average inventory available days of sample enterprises was 39.95 days. The production capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a week - on - week increase of 28.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57%. The in - factory inventory available days of sample enterprises was 45.17 days [20]. - The price differences among the three major rubber contracts on the futures market showed differentiation. As of October 16, the 20 - standard rubber was stronger than natural rubber (RU), and the price difference of the "RU - NR" January contract narrowed. The price difference of the "NR - BR" main contract slightly strengthened [22]. 后市研判 (PART 04) - From a macro perspective, the intensification of Sino - US game, the US government shutdown, and political turmoil in European countries have led to strong market risk aversion, putting pressure on industrial products [26]. - From a fundamental perspective, the raw material price trend is differentiated, the cost support of rubber is weak and stable, the inventory of natural rubber continues to decline slightly, and the demand recovery is restricted by slow inventory reduction [26].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, cold and rainy weather in the north will disrupt terminal construction, potentially leading to a situation where the peak season is not prosperous. As asphalt terminal demand gradually enters the off - season, the fundamentals face weakening pressure. The current fundamentals provide limited support for the market, and with high production plans, the weakening of asphalt fundamentals may suppress prices. - Currently, the influencing factors of crude oil are generally bearish. With OPEC+ continuing to increase production, supply - side pressure is gradually increasing, while the demand side is under pressure as refined oil enters the off - season. The expectation of supply surplus is strengthening, which will suppress prices in the medium and long term. Geopolitical tensions easing and macro - level disturbances increase the market's downward pressure, and the cost - side support for asphalt weakens. - Overall, in the short term, asphalt lacks upward momentum, and crude oil will continue to dominate the market trend, which is expected to remain weakly volatile. [7][50] Summary by Catalog 1. Market Focus and Key Data - **Market Focus**: Sino - US trade tensions have intensified; the IEA monthly report has raised the supply growth forecast and lowered the demand growth forecast; the Fed's latest "Beige Book" shows that the US labor market remains stable overall, but demand is still weak [7]. - **Key Data**: As of October 15, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 35.8%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous statistical period; as of October 17, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 62.4 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons from the previous week; as of October 17, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 72.7 tons, an increase of 3.7 tons from the previous week; as of October 17, the social inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 105.1 tons, a decrease of 0.7 tons from the previous week [7]. 2. Bull and Bear Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Macro - economic improvement [10]. - **Bearish Factors**: High refinery production plans and OPEC+ production increase [10]. 3. Macro - analysis - **Fed's Expected Rate Cut**: Powell hinted at a possible rate cut in October due to weak employment. The financial market generally bets that the Fed will cut interest rates again at the October 28 - 29 meeting. As of October 16, the probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in October was 2.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut was 97.3% [11]. - **IEA's Adjustment of Crude Oil Forecast**: The IEA monthly report raised the 2025 global crude oil supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day, maintaining the expectation of supply surplus [12]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: A cease - fire agreement in Gaza has been reached, but its implementation may be repeated. There is still great uncertainty in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and attacks on energy infrastructure may affect crude oil supply and support oil prices [13]. 4. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: As of October 17, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 62.4 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons from the previous week. The output of major refineries was basically flat, and that of local refineries increased slightly. The operating rate of major refineries may have reached its peak, and the output is in a seasonal decline trend, so the supply pressure is expected to decrease. As of October 15, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 35.8%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous statistical period, with a significant increase in the East China region. It is expected that as major refineries enter seasonal maintenance, the refinery operating rate may decline, and attention should be paid to whether the inflection point will be earlier than expected [14][22]. - **Demand**: As of October 17, the weekly shipment volume of domestic asphalt was 39.3 tons, a decrease of 10.3 tons from the previous statistical date. Due to terminal rush - work and pre - holiday stockpiling, the weekly shipment volume of asphalt increased before the National Day holiday, but as demand enters the off - season, the shipment volume is under pressure to decline. As of October 17, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic modified asphalt was 12.6%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points from the previous week, and it is expected to face downward pressure in the fourth quarter [23][26]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 72.7 tons, an increase of 3.7 tons from the previous week, with large increases in North China and East China. Cold and rainy weather in the north has hindered terminal construction, and factory inventory shipments are not smooth. As downstream demand enters the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation increases. As of October 17, the social inventory of domestic asphalt was 105.1 tons, a decrease of 0.7 tons from the previous week, continuing the inventory - reduction trend since August, but the reduction speed has slowed down [34][39]. - **Price Difference**: As of October 17, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing dilution was - 349.1 yuan/ton, up 160.6 yuan/ton from the previous week. The domestic asphalt basis was 338 yuan/ton, and as of October 15, the asphalt - to - crude - oil ratio was 55.75 [48]. 5. Future Market Judgment - The current fundamentals provide limited support for the market. As downstream demand enters the off - season and there are high production plans, the weakening of asphalt fundamentals may suppress prices. Crude oil factors are generally bearish, and the cost - side support for asphalt weakens. The market is expected to remain weakly volatile. It is recommended to focus on the BU2601 contract in the range of 3050 - 3200 yuan/ton and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices oscillated and rebounded in the two trading days this week, supported by positive macro - sentiment. The overall fundamentals of steel are weak, but expectations are strong before the meeting. Steel prices are expected to move in a range - bound manner, with caution for adjustment pressure if the meeting fails to meet expectations [5][50]. - Iron ore prices showed a strong performance this week. With supply decreasing and demand remaining strong, and port inventory slightly accumulating without significant pressure, iron ore prices are expected to move in a strong - oscillatory manner, subject to downstream demand improvement [5][52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Report Summary - **Market Focus**: The US federal government shut down on October 1st, delaying economic data releases. China issued policies to manage price competition and introduced industry growth plans [5]. - **Key Data**: The EU announced steel import restrictions, raising tariffs from 25% to 50%. The WTO downgraded the 2026 global goods trade growth forecast to 0.5%. China's September manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points [5]. - **Main Views**: Steel prices are affected by macro - sentiment and fundamentals. Iron ore prices are supported by supply - demand factors and macro - drivers [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - **For Rebar**: Bullish factors include positive market sentiment, policy expectations, and cost support. Bearish factors are policy under - performance, a significant drop in apparent demand, and inventory accumulation [8]. - **For Iron Ore**: Bullish factors are positive market sentiment, policy expectations, high hot - metal production, and reduced shipments. Bearish factors are policy under - performance, a drop in apparent demand, and declining steel mill profits [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Macro - level**: Concerns include the resolution of the US government shutdown and economic data releases. China's September manufacturing PMI improved, and holiday consumption was strong. The 20th Fourth Plenary Session is expected to focus on the 15th Five - Year Plan [10][13][15]. - **Rebar - related**: Spot prices rose slightly, and the basis narrowed. Steel mill profitability declined, with a high blast - furnace start - up rate and a rising electric - furnace start - up rate. Steel production decreased slightly, apparent demand dropped seasonally, inventory accumulated above the seasonal norm, and the coil - rebar spread declined [18][20][22]. - **Iron - ore - related**: Spot prices rose slightly, and the basis fluctuated narrowly. August imports increased slightly, and weekly shipments decreased. Weekly arrivals increased, hot - metal production remained high, port inventory slightly accumulated, and steel mills' inventory decreased during the holiday [33][35][38]. 3.4 Market Outlook - **Steel**: Despite weak fundamentals, expectations are strong before the meeting. Steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range, with attention to the meeting's outcome [50]. - **Iron Ore**: With supply - demand support, iron ore prices are expected to move in a strong - oscillatory manner, depending on downstream demand improvement [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum prices may maintain high - level volatility, but high prices may suppress consumption. Attention should be paid to changes in aluminum ingot inventories and macro - sentiment [62]. - Aluminum alloy shows strong follow - up to Shanghai Aluminum and is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. It is recommended to take a long - position on dips [60]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - Overseas political fluctuations increase the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The US federal government's "shutdown" affects economic data release, and the ADP employment data shows a decline. The Fed has the intention to cut interest rates further, but is cautious due to inflation concerns. Attention should be paid to whether the US can release CPI data on October 15th and the resulting market sentiment [9][12]. - The domestic economy is slowly recovering. The manufacturing PMI in September increased slightly, and the consumer market during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays showed good growth. The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee may focus on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and become a new market focus [14][16]. - The supply of domestic bauxite has limited growth due to environmental constraints and declining ore quality. The import of bauxite from Guinea is expected to increase after the rainy season, while the import from Australia has decreased [17][18][21]. - The supply of alumina is expected to remain in surplus. Although the operating capacity has not increased significantly, the high production and low overseas prices have opened the import window, and the future surplus pressure may increase [23][24][26]. - The operating rate of aluminum processing decreased slightly in the first week of October, in line with seasonal characteristics. The output of aluminum products increased slightly in August, and the demand is in the transition period between the off - season and the peak season [29][30][32]. - The real estate market's sales and investment continued to decline in August, but the new policies in first - tier cities have supported the market demand to some extent. The investment, new construction, and completion are still under pressure [34][35]. - The new energy vehicle industry maintained strong growth in August, with both production and sales increasing significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [37][38]. - The inventories of domestic and overseas exchanges decreased. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased during the National Day holiday, and the domestic spot discount and LME aluminum premium both expanded [40][41][44]. - The output of recycled aluminum alloy decreased slightly in August, mainly due to the shortage of scrap and reduced procurement by traders. The operating rate of recycled aluminum has recovered recently, but the overall production is still affected by various factors. The import of aluminum alloy is expected to remain low in the fourth quarter, and the inventory has increased [48][49][59]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: The expected increase in overseas supply is limited, and the social inventory continues to be at a low level [7]. - Bearish factors: The long - term upward trend of aluminum prices is not clear, and the overseas macro - environment is uncertain [7]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Bauxite**: In 2025, from January to August, the domestic bauxite output was 4086.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. The import volume was 14175 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.4%, with a dependence of 78.4%. The import from Guinea increased by 38.5%, and the import from Australia decreased by 4.8% [18][21]. - **Alumina**: In August 2025, the output was 792.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. The operating capacity increased, and the supply surplus pattern remained unchanged [24]. - **Aluminum processing**: In the first week of October, the overall operating rate of aluminum processing decreased to 62.5%. In August, the output of aluminum products was 554.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.2%. From January to August, the output was 4379 million tons, basically the same as the previous year [30][32]. - **Real estate**: In August 2025, the single - month real estate sales area, investment, new construction area, and completion area decreased year - on - year, with the decline in sales expanding. The new policies in first - tier cities have supported the market demand, and the new construction and completion are still under pressure [35]. - **Automobile**: In August 2025, the production and sales of automobiles increased month - on - month and year - on - year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles increased by more than 25% both month - on - month and year - on - year [38]. - **Inventory**: The LME aluminum inventory decreased to 508600 tons, and the SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 0.83% to 123597 tons in the week of September 30th. As of October 9th, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 63.4 million tons, an increase of 4.7 million tons compared with September 29th [41][44]. - **Aluminum alloy**: In August 2025, the output of recycled aluminum alloy was 61.45 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. The import volume of unforged aluminum alloy in August was 7.10 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.7%. As of October 10th, the weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy was 7.57 million tons, an increase of 0.26 million tons compared with the previous week, and the in - plant inventory was 6.15 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons compared with the previous week [49][55][59]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain high - level volatility, and attention should be paid to changes in aluminum ingot inventories and macro - sentiment [62]. - Aluminum alloy shows strong follow - up to Shanghai Aluminum and is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. It is recommended to take a long - position on dips [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of Shanghai Aluminum may remain in a high - level oscillation, but high prices may suppress consumption. Attention should be paid to changes in aluminum ingot inventory and macro - sentiment [77]. - Aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up nature to Shanghai Aluminum and is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. It is recommended to take a long - position on dips [74]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: Limited domestic supply increase, expected decline in overseas supply, and low social inventory [8]. - **Bearish factors**: Weak alumina prices and increased overseas macro - uncertainties [8]. - **Overseas political situation**: The US federal government's "shutdown" increased global financial market uncertainties. The delay of non - farm data made ADP employment data crucial. The 9 - month ADP employment report showed a decrease of 32,000 people, leading to expectations of Fed rate cuts [9][10][13]. - **Domestic economic situation**: China's economy shows a slow recovery. In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points month - on - month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points. The consumption market during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays was good, but the film box office declined year - on - year [14][17]. 3.2 Data Analysis - **Bauxite supply**: In 2025, from January to August, domestic bauxite production was 40.861 million tons, up 7.8% year - on - year. However, due to environmental protection and resource grade decline, the actual supply increase is limited. From January to August, imports were 141.75 million tons, up 31.4% year - on - year, with a dependence of 78.4%. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter [20][23]. - **Alumina supply**: In August 2025, China's alumina production was 7.925 million tons, up 7.5% year - on - year. The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, with high production and an open import window. New capacity is planned to be put into production later, increasing the surplus pressure [27]. - **Primary aluminum production**: In August 2025, primary aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, down 0.5% year - on - year. In September, the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly. The upper limit of electrolytic aluminum capacity is 45 million tons, and the supply increase space is limited. The low proportion of aluminum ingots provides support for aluminum prices [30]. - **Aluminum processing**: In the first week of October, the overall aluminum processing start - up rate decreased to 62.5% month - on - month, showing seasonal characteristics and internal differentiation [33]. - **Aluminum product demand**: In August 2025, China's aluminum product production was 5.548 million tons, up 1% month - on - month and down 4.2% year - on - year. From January to August, it was 43.79 million tons, basically flat year - on - year. Demand is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons [36]. - **Inventory situation**: LME aluminum inventory decreased, and SHFE aluminum inventory decreased slightly in the week of September 30. During the National Day holiday, aluminum ingot social inventory accumulated to 634,000 tons as of October 9, an increase of 47,000 tons from September 29 [48][52]. - **Price difference**: On October 9, the domestic spot discount widened, and the LME aluminum premium widened [56]. - **Recycled aluminum**: In August, recycled aluminum alloy production was 614,500 tons, down 1.7% month - on - month and up 8.6% year - on - year. As of September 25, the recycled aluminum alloy start - up rate was 56.6%, up 0.7% week - on - week [60][64]. - **Aluminum alloy import and export**: In August 2025, the import of unforged aluminum alloy was 71,000 tons, down 16.7% year - on - year; the export was 29,100 tons, up 28.3% year - on - year. It is expected that the import volume will remain low in the fourth quarter [68]. - **Aluminum alloy inventory**: As of October 10, China's aluminum alloy weekly social inventory was 75,700 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from last week; the in - plant inventory was 61,500 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons from last week [73]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Aluminum alloy is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and it is recommended to take a long - position on dips [74]. - Shanghai Aluminum may remain in a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to changes in aluminum ingot inventory and macro - sentiment [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, the fundamentals of asphalt have little change, and its price is mainly driven by crude oil. Affected by the decline in international oil prices during the holiday, asphalt prices fluctuated weakly this week. With limited improvement in asphalt demand, the fundamentals provide limited support for the market. As downstream demand enters the off - season and there are high production plans, the weakening fundamentals may suppress prices. Crude oil continues to oscillate widely due to geopolitical and fundamental factors, but as the peak demand season ends, the expectation of supply surplus strengthens, and the cost - side support for asphalt weakens. Overall, asphalt lacks upward momentum in the short term and is expected to continue the weakly oscillating trend. It is recommended to focus on the BU2511 contract in the range of 3260 - 3400 yuan/ton and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [8][58]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Report Summary - **Market Focus**: Israel and Hamas reached a Gaza cease - fire agreement; OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November; there are differences among Fed officials regarding the magnitude of interest rate cuts this year [7]. - **Key Data**: As of September 24, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 40.1%, up 5.7 percentage points from the previous period. As of October 10, the weekly asphalt production was 618,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from last week; the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 690,000 tons, an increase of 42,000 tons from last week; the social inventory was 1.058 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from last week [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Focus on the BU2511 contract in the range of 3260 - 3400 yuan/ton and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [9]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Geopolitical uncertainty and high refinery production [12]. - **Bearish Factors**: OPEC+ production increase [12]. 3.3 Macro Analysis - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. Russia and Saudi Arabia have a quota of 41,000 barrels per day, Iraq 18,000 barrels per day, UAE 12,000 barrels per day, Kuwait 10,000 barrels per day, Kazakhstan 7,000 barrels per day, Oman and Algeria 4,000 barrels per day each. This shows OPEC+'s determination to compete for market share through production increase, which will increase supply - side pressure and suppress prices [14][16]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: A Gaza cease - fire agreement is expected to be reached, but its implementation may be repeated. The Russia - Ukraine conflict remains highly uncertain, and attacks on energy infrastructure may disrupt crude oil supply and support oil prices [17]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: As of October 10, the weekly asphalt production was 618,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from last week. The production of state - owned refineries was basically flat, while that of local refineries decreased. The operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises as of September 24 was 40.1%, up 5.7 percentage points from the previous period, with significant increases in East China and Shandong. As state - owned refineries enter seasonal maintenance, the operating rate may decline [18][28]. - **Demand**: As of September 26, the weekly asphalt shipment was 496,000 tons, an increase of 41,000 tons from the previous week. However, as demand enters the off - season, shipments may decline. The weekly capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt as of September 26 was 18.94%, a decrease of 1.29 percentage points from last week. It is expected to decline in the fourth quarter, with limited long - term growth potential [29][32]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 690,000 tons, an increase of 42,000 tons from last week, mainly in North China and Shandong. The social inventory was 1.058 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from last week, and the de - stocking speed slowed down during the National Day holiday [42][49]. - **Spread**: As of September 26, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing was - 554.7 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.2 yuan/ton from the previous week. The domestic asphalt basis was 185 yuan/ton, and the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio as of September 30 was 54.85. The crack spread and basis are expected to remain stable [56]. 3.5后市研判 - In the short term, asphalt lacks upward momentum, and crude oil will continue to dominate the market. It is expected to continue the weakly oscillating trend. Focus on the BU2511 contract in the range of 3260 - 3400 yuan/ton and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - After the holiday, the supply of domestic coking coal decreased slightly, the mine end accumulated a small amount of inventory, and the inventory of sample coal washing plants decreased significantly. The overall upstream inventory pressure is not large. With limited domestic supply increase after the holiday, Mongolian coal will make up for the supply, and the overall supply - demand is relatively balanced. The coking coal futures market is significantly affected by external macro - sentiment, and its fundamental driving force is limited. The short - term price has support below, and the upward space needs macro - and micro - resonance [6][35]. - Supported by coking coal costs, the first round of coke price increase was implemented on October 1st, improving the profitability of coke enterprises compared to before the holiday. However, the high - level fluctuations of raw material prices erode steel enterprises' profits, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises, and suppressing the upward space of coke enterprises' per - ton profit. Currently, the inventory pressure of independent coke enterprises has been significantly reduced. With the improvement of the inventory structure, the influence of the cost side increases, and the coke futures market follows the coking coal market [6][38]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - Market Focus: The US will impose new port fees on three types of China - related ships from October 14th; the EU plans to cut the steel import quota eligible for tariff exemption and raise the steel tariff from 25% to 50%; China's relevant departments will guide the assessment of industry average costs to maintain market price order; 22 central safety inspection teams will conduct inspections in 31 provincial - level regions in November; a coal mine in Shaanxi has fully resumed production [6]. - Fundamental Overview: Domestic coking coal supply decreased slightly; upstream coking coal inventory pressure is not large; independent coke enterprises reduced coking coal inventory, and steel mills' raw material inventory decreased slightly; overall coke production was stable; hot metal production remained at a high level, supporting coke consumption; a new round of coke price increase was implemented [6]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - Bullish Factors: Reduced coking coal inventory pressure; high hot metal production supporting coke demand; environmental and safety inspections in autumn and winter affecting coal supply expectations [9]. - Bearish Factors: Recovery of Mongolian coal imports; low enthusiasm of steel mills for replenishing inventory; suppressed profitability of steel mills [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - Domestic Coking Coal Supply: During the National Day holiday, the开工 rate and daily output of 523 sample mines and 314 sample coal washing plants decreased. Before the holiday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was at a high level. With limited domestic supply increase, Mongolian coal makes up for the supply [14]. - Coking Coal Upstream Inventory: As of October 10th, 523 sample mines' clean coal inventory increased, 314 sample coal washing plants' clean coal inventory decreased, and port coking coal inventory remained unchanged. The overall upstream inventory pressure is not large [17]. - Independent Coke Enterprises' Coking Coal Inventory: As of October 10th, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises decreased, and the inventory - available days decreased. The coke inventory increased slightly [20]. - Steel Mills' Raw Material Inventory: As of October 10th, the coking coal and coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased, and the inventory - available days decreased [24]. - Coke Production: As of October 10th, the capacity utilization rate and daily output of all - sample independent coking enterprises were relatively stable, while those of 247 steel enterprises decreased slightly. Overall coke production remained stable [26]. - Coke Consumption: As of the week of October 10th, China's coke consumption and 247 steel enterprises' hot metal daily output decreased slightly. Hot metal production remained at a high level, supporting coke demand [28]. - Coke Price Increase: As of October 9th, the average per - ton profit of 30 independent coking plants was 9 yuan/ton. The first - round coke price increase was implemented on October 1st, improving the profitability of coke enterprises. As of the week of October 10th, the profitability of 247 steel enterprises decreased, and the game between steel and coke enterprises intensified [30]. - Basis Structure of Coking Coal and Coke Futures: The spot and futures prices of coking coal and coke maintained a volatile trend [32]. 3.4后市研判 - Coking Coal: After the holiday, the supply - demand of coking coal is relatively balanced. The futures market is affected by macro - sentiment, and the fundamental driving force is limited. Future attention should be paid to the increase in upstream supply, downstream demand, and the impact of important domestic meetings in October [35]. - Coke: The first - round price increase improved the profitability of coke enterprises, but the game between steel and coke enterprises intensified, suppressing the profit space of coke enterprises. The coke futures market follows the coking coal market [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rubber's own fundamental factors have limited driving force on the market, and the market mainly fluctuates within a range. The follow - up should focus on the impact of weather factors on the increase of rubber tapping volume [6][25]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - **Market Focus**: ANRPC's August 2025 report predicts that global natural rubber production in August will drop 0.7% to 1.379 million tons, up 3.8% from the previous month; consumption will drop 1% to 1.256 million tons, up 0.8% from the previous month. In the first 8 months, cumulative production will slightly drop 0.03% to 8.856 million tons, and cumulative consumption will drop 0.6% to 10.146 million tons. In 2025, global natural rubber production is expected to increase 0.5% to 14.892 million tons, and consumption is expected to increase 1.3% to 15.565 million tons. During October 8 - 14, 2025, rainfall in Southeast Asian main producing areas of natural rubber increased compared with the previous period. After the holiday, the rubber market fluctuated with external macro - emotions, and its own fundamentals had limited driving force. The rubber price was relatively firm after the National Day holiday, with cost support due to rainfall in main producing areas. Inventory continued to decline, but downstream demand dragged down the fundamentals [6]. - **Fundamental Overview**: Natural rubber raw material prices are relatively firm, and it continues to have a small - scale inventory reduction. The price of butadiene, the raw material of butadiene rubber, is running weakly, and the inventory reduction of butadiene rubber is not smooth. The overall production capacity utilization rate of tires decreased during the National Day holiday [7]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Rubber raw material prices are stable, providing cost support, and the inventory pressure of natural rubber is not obvious [10]. - **Bearish Factors**: The overall tire operating rate decreased due to the holiday, and the inventory reduction of butadiene rubber is not smooth [10]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Raw Material Price**: As of October 9, the price of Thai raw material glue was 53.9 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 50.7 Thai baht/kg. The price of Yunnan glue for producing whole - milk rubber was 13,900 yuan/ton, and for producing concentrated latex was 14,100 yuan/ton. The price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13,000 yuan/ton, and the price of Hainan glue for producing whole - milk rubber was 14,500 yuan/ton, and for producing concentrated latex was 15,700 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inventory**: As of September 28, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.088 million tons, a 1.4% decrease from the previous month. The total inventory of bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 456,500 tons, a 1.01% decrease from the previous period. As of the week of October 10, the production capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was 74.69%, up 4.15% from before the holiday. The in - factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,600 tons, and the trader inventory was 5,700 tons, both unchanged from before the holiday [14][18]. - **Raw Material Price of Butadiene Rubber**: After the National Day, the domestic butadiene market declined slightly. As of the week of October 10, the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 167 yuan/ton, and the theoretical production profit of butadiene rubber enterprises was slightly repaired [15]. - **Tire Production Capacity Utilization**: As of the week of October 10, the production capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, a 13.83% increase from the previous period and a 0.78% decrease year - on - year. The average inventory available days of sample enterprises was 39.87 days. The production capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a 17.5% decrease from the previous period and a 36.62% decrease year - on - year. The in - factory inventory available days of sample enterprises was 45.7 days [19]. - **Contract Spread**: As of October 9, the spread of the "RU - NR" January contract slightly shrank, and the spread of the "NR - BR" main contract slightly strengthened [21]. 3.4 Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: The domestic financial market digested holiday events. After the Hamas announced a permanent cease - fire, the geopolitical disturbance cooled down, the risk - aversion sentiment declined, and the domestic stock market was affected [25]. - **Fundamental - aspect**: After the National Day holiday, the rubber price was relatively firm, with cost support due to rainfall in main producing areas. The inventory continued to decline, but downstream demand dragged down the fundamentals. The production capacity utilization rate of tires will gradually recover after the holiday, but the subsequent recovery space is limited [25].

原油周度报告 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2025-10-10 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 供需分析 04 后市研判 多空P焦AR点T 02 多空因素分析（原油） | 多方因素 | 空方因素 | | --- | --- | | 地缘政治的不确定性 | 以色列与哈马斯达成加沙停火协议 | | | OPEC+增产加速落地 | 报告P摘AR要T 01 （1）以色列与哈马斯达成加沙停火协议。 （2）OPEC+延续增产措施，11月份增产13.7万桶/日。 （3）美联储9月份议息会议纪要公布，美联储内部官员关于年内降息幅度存在分歧。 市场焦点 重点数据 （1）美国至10月3日当周EIA原油库存增加371.5万桶，预期为增加188.5万桶，前值为增加179.2万桶。 （2）美国至10月3日当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 -76.3万桶，前值-27.1万桶。 （3）美国至10月3日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 28.5万桶，前值74.2万桶。 主要观点 近期原油在地缘及OPEC+增产预期的双重影响下先涨后跌，乌克兰加大对俄罗斯基础能源设施袭 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term copper prices are likely to remain high, which may suppress consumption and pose a risk of adjustment and decline. In the medium - term, the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged [5][62]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US employment data showed an unexpected decline, far lower than market expectations, which may lead the Federal Reserve to implement further monetary easing policies [5]. - China's manufacturing PMI rose by 0.4 percentage points, non - manufacturing PMI fell by 0.3 percentage points, and the comprehensive PMI output index rose by 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight acceleration in overall economic output expansion [5]. - The US government "shutdown" increased overseas macro - uncertainty, and the release of economic data was delayed, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to make accurate monetary policies [5]. - Due to the mud accident at the Indonesian mine, copper supply was disrupted. Domestic smelters were in a high - maintenance period, and refined copper production was expected to decline, but inventory would increase [5]. - High copper prices may suppress consumption in the short - term, but in the medium - term, copper prices are likely to remain high and volatile [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Refined copper production is expected to decline, and the copper concentrate processing fee remains low, indicating tight supply at the mine end [8]. - **Bearish Factors**: Social inventory is accumulating, high copper prices may suppress consumption, and overseas macro - uncertainty has increased [8]. - Overseas political fluctuations have increased, further strengthening the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Copper Ore Imports**: In August, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.759 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August were 20.054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [20]. - **Copper Concentrate TC**: As of the week of September 26, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 40.68 US dollars per dry ton, up 0.66 US dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The mud accident at the Indonesian mine increased market concerns about copper supply [24]. - **Refined Copper Supply**: In August, China's refined copper output was 1.301 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. In October, domestic smelters will conduct large - scale maintenance, which may lead to a phased tightening of refined copper supply [28]. - **Scrap Copper Imports**: In August, China's scrap copper imports were 179,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.6% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. The decline was due to factors such as import losses, extreme weather, and reduced overseas exports [32]. - **Copper Products Output**: In August, China's copper products output was 2.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8% and a month - on - month increase of 2%, reaching a high level in the same period over the years [36]. - **Copper Consumption**: The price of refined copper spot has risen significantly, which is not conducive to refined copper consumption. As of October 9, the refined - scrap spread was around 390 yuan per ton [40]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory continued to decline last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3.79% in the week of September 30. Domestic social inventory increased, with the electrolytic copper spot inventory reaching 167,900 tons on October 9, an increase of 11,200 tons compared with September 29 [55]. - **Spot Premium**: On October 9, the spot premium of Shanghai Wumaotrade 1 copper changed from discount to premium, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount narrowed [59]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - **Home Appliance Industry**: In August, the output of household refrigerators increased by 2.5% year - on - year, and the output of household air conditioners increased by 9.4% year - on - year. However, in the fourth quarter, the home appliance industry is expected to face pressure of slowing growth [44]. - **Real Estate Industry**: In August, real estate sales, investment, new construction, and completion all declined year - on - year. Although some first - tier cities have introduced policies to support the market, the real estate market is still under pressure, and copper demand in the real estate sector remains weak [48]. - **Automobile Industry**: In August, traditional automobile production and sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. New energy vehicle production and sales also showed strong growth, with a year - on - year increase of 27.4% and 26.8% respectively, and the market demand is strong [52]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Short - term copper prices are likely to remain high, which may suppress consumption and pose a risk of adjustment and decline. In the medium - term, the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged [5][62].