1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August 2025, the prices of alumina and electrolytic aluminum futures showed a divergent trend, with alumina prices declining and electrolytic aluminum prices rising slightly. The Fed's expected rate cut in September has increased, and the economic data in the eurozone has improved significantly. The domestic economy is generally stable, but there is greater pressure on economic growth from July to August, and more policy support is expected in the second half of the year. The increase in US steel and aluminum tariffs has limited impact on domestic aluminum prices, and the change in Shanxi's mining rights transfer registration has limited impact on domestic bauxite production. The expected oversupply of alumina remains unchanged, while electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a profit of over 3,000 yuan per ton in the second half of the year. As the peak season approaches, the downstream aluminum processing industry is gradually recovering, and the demand for aluminum in the new energy and automotive industries is growing rapidly, but the demand for aluminum in the real estate industry remains weak. The LME aluminum inventory is stable, and the domestic aluminum ingot inventory is approaching an inflection point. The differentiation in the recycled aluminum industry is intensifying, and the import volume in July hit a four - year low, with the expectation of remaining low in August [6][7][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Aluminum Futures Price Trends**: In August, the alumina futures price showed a downward trend, dropping from a maximum of 3,317 yuan/ton to a minimum of 3,006 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 9.38%. The electrolytic aluminum futures price rose slightly, reaching a maximum of 20,950 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Environment - **US Economy**: In July, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, far lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. However, the employment rate remained relatively low, and the labor market was relatively stable. The S&P and Fitch both confirmed the US "AA +" sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook. The Fed's expected rate cut in September has increased. The market believes that a rate cut in September is a high - probability event, and attention should be paid to the decline compared to the June dot - plot [12]. - **Eurozone Economy**: The economic data in the eurozone has improved significantly. Germany's manufacturing PMI jumped from 46.9 to 49.9, approaching the boom - bust line for the first time in three years. The eurozone's August PMI rose to 50.5, breaking above the boom - bust line for the first time since June 2022. The market's expectation of the ECB's rate cut this year remains relatively stable [14]. - **Domestic Economy**: In July, China's industrial added value, social consumer goods retail sales, and fixed - asset investment all showed certain growth, but the growth rate of consumer goods retail and fixed - asset investment decreased year - on - year. The manufacturing PMI remained in the contraction range in August. It is expected that the domestic economic growth rate may decline in the second half of the year compared to the second quarter, and more policy support is awaited [20]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Bauxite**: The change in Shanxi's mining rights transfer registration has limited impact on domestic bauxite production. From January to July 2025, China's bauxite production increased year - on - year. Affected by the rainy season in Guinea, the shipment volume of bauxite is expected to decline from August to October, and the domestic bauxite supply may be in a tight balance or even face a slight shortage [26][29][33]. - **Alumina**: Although there have been disturbances in the alumina supply recently, the expected oversupply remains unchanged. In July 2025, China's alumina production was 7.565 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The operating capacity of alumina is at a relatively high level, and the production willingness of enterprises is generally high [34][35]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a profit of over 3,000 yuan per ton in the second half of the year. In July 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. The growth space for domestic electrolytic aluminum production is limited. Overseas, there are a few incremental electrolytic aluminum projects, such as the 600,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of Xinfa Group's Taijing Aluminum Co., Ltd. in Indonesia, which is expected to be put into production in 2026, and the 500,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of Juwang in Indonesia may start production in the fourth quarter of this year [38][41][45]. - **Downstream Demand**: As the peak season approaches, the average weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises has increased by 0.5% to 60%. The new energy and automotive industries have strong demand for aluminum. In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of solar and wind power in China increased significantly year - on - year. In July, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, and it is expected that the annual automobile sales will increase by 4.7% in 2025. However, the demand for aluminum in the real estate industry remains weak [47][51][55]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis - **LME Aluminum Inventory**: The LME aluminum inventory is generally stable, and the low inventory still supports the LME market's monthly spread and basis. However, attention should be paid to the risk of policy changes regarding Russian aluminum in the overseas market [62]. - **Domestic Aluminum Ingot Inventory**: At the end of August, the domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly, but it is expected that the social inventory of aluminum ingots will enter the seasonal destocking cycle in September [65]. - **Recycled Aluminum Inventory**: As of August 21, the domestic recycled aluminum alloy social inventory was 35,100 tons, with a slowdown in the inventory accumulation rate. The shortage of scrap aluminum is difficult to ease in the short term, and the ADC12 price is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation [73]. 3.5 Import and Export Analysis - In July 2025, the import volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.6%. The export volume was 24,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%. The import volume in July hit a new low since February 2021, mainly due to the long - term price inversion and the off - season demand [71].

Report Overview - The report is a copper monthly report for August 2025, released by AVIC Futures [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating Report's Core View - In September, it is recommended to buy on dips. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates, which will loosen liquidity and open up upward space for copper prices. Coupled with the tight supply of copper mines and the traditional peak consumption season from September to October, copper prices may fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to maintain the operation strategy of buying on dips, with attention paid to the pressure at the 81,000 yuan mark [6][7] Summaries by Directory 1. Market Outlook - In September, it is recommended to buy on dips. The overseas focus is on the Fed's September interest - rate meeting, with a high probability of a rate cut. If the rate cut is greater than or equal to 25bps, it is considered bullish; less than 25bps is neutral. The Q3 rate cuts will continue to open up space, and two rate cuts are still expected this year, which will relieve the upward pressure on metals. The euro - zone economic data has improved significantly, and the sustainability of the improvement should be monitored. The domestic economy is generally stable, with the RMB exchange rate strengthening. There is still a large policy space in the fourth quarter, and there is a possibility of further rate cuts and reserve - requirement ratio cuts. The tight supply of copper mines this year is stronger than last year, and the traditional peak consumption season from September to October also supports copper prices. Copper prices may fluctuate strongly, and the operation strategy of buying on dips is recommended [6][7] 2. Market Review - In August, copper prices maintained a high - level consolidation. On August 1, the lowest price of Shanghai copper reached 77,960 yuan/ton, and on August 25, the highest price reached 79,830 yuan/ton. The market's focus shifted to the Fed's rate - cut time and rhythm. On the fundamental side, the raw - material supply remained tight. After the implementation of the 232 reciprocal tariffs, the inventory in non - US regions increased slightly, but the inventory - building speed was slow. The downstream's acceptance of high prices was limited, which restricted the upward space [9][10] 3. Macroeconomic Aspect US - In July, the non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the year - on - year increase in hourly wages rose from 3.8% to 3.9%. The employment rate remained relatively low, and the labor market was relatively stable. Standard & Poor's and Fitch confirmed the US sovereign credit ratings. The preliminary values of the US manufacturing and service PMIs in August were higher than expected. The CPI, core CPI, and PPI in July increased year - on - year. The durable - goods orders decreased month - on - month. After Fed Chairman Powell's speech, traders increased their bets on a September rate cut and fully priced in two rate cuts by the end of the year [14] Euro - zone - The German and French manufacturing PMIs improved significantly in August. The euro - zone's August PMI rose above the boom - bust line for the first time since June 2022. The second - quarter GDP annual rate was in line with expectations. The ECB President said that the current tariff situation was better than the worst - case scenario. The market's expectation of an ECB rate cut this year remained stable [16] China - In July, the added value of large - scale industries, social - consumption retail sales, and other economic data showed certain trends. The growth rate of economic data from July to August faced greater pressure, and more policy support was expected. The RMB exchange rate was relatively stable, and once it strengthened, there would be more space for fiscal and monetary policies. It is expected that there will still be a large policy space in the fourth quarter, and there is a possibility of rate cuts and reserve - requirement ratio cuts [21][26] 4. Fundamental Aspect Supply - In July, China's copper - ore imports increased. The supply from Chile and Peru rebounded. The spot processing fee for copper concentrates showed a bottom - rebound trend, but the overall rebound was limited, and the tight supply situation remained. Due to the impact of Freeport Indonesia's copper - concentrate exports, the processing fee decreased slightly. Codelco lowered its annual copper - output target [28][32] Inventory - Global copper inventory was affected by tariffs and the domestic peak season. US copper inventory reached a multi - year high, and LME copper inventory increased significantly in July - August. The inventory in bonded areas and the SHFE remained stable. Currently, copper inventory is high, and there may be a possibility of inventory reduction during the peak season from September to October [35] Production - In July, China's refined - copper production decreased slightly month - on - month, mainly due to the tight supply of cold materials. In August, the number of smelters reducing production due to supply shortages increased. The import volume of refined copper decreased slightly month - on - month but was still at a relatively high level this year [40] Demand - **Waste copper**: In July, China's waste - copper imports increased more than expected, mainly driven by strong domestic demand [42] - **New energy**: As of the end of July, the installed capacity of new energy power generation increased significantly year - on - year. The investment in power grids increased, which was conducive to copper consumption [47] - **Real estate**: The real - estate market was still weak, but policies in Beijing and Shanghai were optimized, and the release of the "Opinions on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" was expected to accelerate urban renewal [51] - **Automobile**: In July, automobile production and sales increased year - on - year. The production of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. The full - year sales of automobiles are expected to increase, which will drive copper consumption [55] - **Home appliances**: In July, the production of refrigerators and air - conditioners decreased month - on - month. The production of refrigerators decreased due to the release of pre - demand, and the production of air - conditioners decreased due to the end of promotions and US tariffs [57]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, domestic bauxite prices are stable, and the change in Shanxi's mining rights transfer registration has limited impact on domestic bauxite production. With high operating capacity and output, and the possibility of increased imported alumina inflows, there is a strong expectation of supply surplus, putting pressure on prices. - For electrolytic aluminum, in September, the overseas focus is on the US Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting. It is likely that there will be a rate cut in September. The supply changes little, and the operating output increases slightly. As the seasonal consumption peak approaches, the downstream start - up rate rises slightly, but the inventory continues to accumulate. Macro and fundamental factors may lead to the aluminum price oscillating strongly, with resistance at the 21000 - 21500 level, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. - For cast aluminum alloy, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and some enterprises have reduced or stopped production due to tax policy adjustments. The demand in the communication field is picking up, and the market is at the transition stage from the off - season to the peak season. The spot price is expected to remain firm, and the price difference between the alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow. The reference operating range for the main contract is 20000 - 20600 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Outlook - **Alumina**: Domestic bauxite price stability, high production, and possible imported inflows lead to supply surplus and price pressure. Pay attention to the new industrial plan and the situation in Guinea [6]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Focus on the US Fed's September interest - rate meeting. Supply is stable with a slight increase, demand is approaching the peak season, but inventory is still accumulating. Aluminum price may oscillate strongly, and a buying - on - dips strategy is recommended [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, tax policy affects production, demand is showing signs of improvement, and the price is expected to be firm with a narrowing price difference [6]. 2. Market Review - In August, the futures prices of alumina and electrolytic aluminum showed different trends. Alumina futures prices generally weakened, with a monthly decline of 9.38% from a high of 3317 yuan/ton to a low of 3006 yuan/ton, while electrolytic aluminum futures prices rose slightly, reaching a high of 20950 yuan/ton [8][9]. 3. Macroeconomic Aspects - **US Economy**: In July, non - farm employment data was poor, but the employment level remained relatively low. Credit ratings were stable. Economic data such as PMI and inflation showed mixed trends. After Powell's speech, the market increased bets on a September rate cut [13]. - **Eurozone Economy**: Economic data improved significantly. Manufacturing PMI in Germany and France rose, and the eurozone's PMI broke above the boom - bust line. The ECB's rate - cut expectation remained stable [15]. - **Chinese Economy**: Overall, it was stable. Industrial added value, consumption, investment, and other data showed different trends. The economy faced some pressure in July - August, and more policy support was expected in the second half of the year [20]. - **Exchange Rate and Policy**: The US dollar exchange rate fluctuated greatly, while the RMB remained relatively stable. With the strengthening of the RMB and the expectation of a US rate cut, there is still significant policy space in the fourth quarter, and further rate cuts and reserve - requirement ratio cuts are possible [25]. - **US Steel and Aluminum Tariffs**: The expansion of the US steel and aluminum import tariff scope had limited impact on domestic aluminum prices [27]. 4. Fundamental Aspects - **Bauxite**: Shanxi's mining rights policy had limited short - term impact on supply. In July, domestic bauxite production increased year - on - year. Guinea's rainy season affected bauxite shipments, and domestic supply may face a tight balance [28][31][35]. - **Alumina**: Although there were short - term supply disturbances, the operating capacity and output were high. Import inflows may increase, and there is a strong expectation of supply surplus and price pressure [38]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: It maintained high profits, and the growth space of production was limited. Overseas, there were a few incremental capacities. The downstream processing industry's start - up rate increased slightly, and the demand in the new energy and automotive industries was growing, while the real - estate demand was still weak [42][45][54]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory was stable, and the domestic aluminum ingot inventory inflection point was approaching. The regeneration aluminum industry was facing challenges such as production reduction and inventory accumulation, and the import volume in July was at a four - year low [72][75][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the macro - environment at home and abroad will improve to some extent. The Fed may start a new round of interest - rate cuts, and the RMB is expected to strengthen in China, which may further expand policy space. However, the newly released steel industry's steady - growth plan has no obvious positive impact. After the military parade, coal mine复产 may increase coal - end pressure, and the cost support is limited. The steel market is in a stage of weakening demand while steel mill production is increasing, so the supply - demand mismatch still exerts pressure on prices. It is expected that steel prices will mainly fluctuate weakly in September, waiting for demand improvement signals, and the price may first decline and then rise [78]. - In September, the market will focus on the sustainability of high hot - metal production. Entering the golden September and silver October demand season, with a favorable domestic and foreign macro - environment and better profits for steel mills this year, iron ore prices may not enter a trending downward channel without a rapid decline in hot - metal production. However, attention should be paid to the improvement of steel demand. High iron ore prices may stimulate shipping enthusiasm, and iron ore shipping may accelerate in September. It is expected that iron ore prices may first rise and then fall, ranging from 730 to 800 [81]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Steel**: In August, steel prices rose first and then fell. The spot price was relatively stable, mainly due to the weakening cost support after the cooling of the anti - involution. In August, the off - season characteristics of steel became apparent, the supply pressure continued to accumulate, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the inventory gradually accumulated, suppressing the price [5]. - **Iron Ore**: In August, iron ore prices showed strong resilience and fluctuated upward. At the beginning of the month, they adjusted following the decline in coking coal prices. However, the actual demand for iron ore was strong, steel mills maintained high blast - furnace hot - metal production driven by profits, the supply decreased, and the inventory pressure was small. Currently, the market is trading the expectation of peak - season demand, and the price is strong [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - **Overseas (US)**: In July, the US non - farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, the lowest in 9 months, far below the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%. The ISM non - manufacturing index in July was 50.1, indicating a slowdown in service - sector activities and increased price pressure. The CPI in July was in line with expectations, but the PPI soared year - on - year, dampening the expectation of interest - rate cuts. In August, the manufacturing and service sectors showed strong demand. The Fed Chairman Powell's dovish statement led the market to fully price in two interest - rate cuts within the year. However, the relatively stable US economy may restrict the Fed's subsequent interest - rate cut process [10][16]. - **Domestic**: In July, the effect of policies to expand domestic demand continued to emerge. The CPI rose month - on - month, mainly driven by the rise in service and industrial consumer goods prices, and was flat year - on - year due to low food prices. The PPI decreased month - on - month, and the decline narrowed. Since August, the anti - involution trading has weakened, and the market has returned to a volatile pattern. In July, social financing increased year - on - year, mainly contributed by government bonds, but the subsequent support may weaken. The RMB loans decreased year - on - year, and both corporate and household loans declined. The economic indicators in July showed marginal weakness, and the real economy was still weak [19][23][28]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Terminal Demand**: - **Real Estate**: Real estate investment continued to decline, sales weakened, new construction decline narrowed slightly, and the completion area decline expanded. The housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to fall. The Shanghai government issued new real - estate policies to boost consumption [35]. - **Infrastructure**: From January to July, infrastructure investment increased by 3.2% year - on - year, a slowdown from the previous period. In July, the issuance of new special bonds accelerated, and the "special new special bonds" also accelerated issuance, which will support infrastructure steel demand [38]. - **Automobile**: In July, automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The new - energy vehicle market continued to grow rapidly [42]. - **Excavator and Ship**: In July, the production and sales of excavators increased, and the export of ships increased [45]. - **Steel Export**: In July, steel exports continued to grow well. The export of steel billets reached a record high. However, the US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list, and the subsequent impact on exports needs attention [46][47]. - **Supply**: In July, China's crude - steel and pig - iron production decreased year - on - year. In August, the blast - furnace operating rate of steel mills was high, and the electric - furnace operating rate continued to rise. Currently, steel mills lack the motivation to reduce production, but attention should be paid to the impact of end - of - month maintenance [51][54][56]. - **Inventory**: In August, steel supply increased while demand decreased, and steel inventory began to accumulate significantly. The inventory pressure was mainly on social inventory, showing a transfer from the production end to the circulation end [60]. - **Apparent Demand**: In August, steel demand gradually weakened. The demand for building materials continued to weaken, while the demand for plates was still supported by exports and manufacturing. In September, demand may improve slowly [63]. - **Iron Ore (Import, Shipment, and Inventory)**: In July, iron ore imports decreased. In August, iron ore shipments gradually recovered, and the arrival at ports increased slowly. Since August, hot - metal production has remained at a high level of over 2.4 million tons, supporting iron ore prices. The port inventory was relatively stable, and steel mills made small - scale restocking [66][67][69][73].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In August, the three major rubber futures contracts showed a slightly stronger trend with limited gains due to minor improvements in the rubber's fundamentals and a relatively warm macro - environment. The cost of rubber is supported by weather, and the inventory has a slight structural improvement. The downstream tire demand has resilience, but the fundamental contradictions are not obvious, and the price will fluctuate within a range, with external macro - disturbances likely to widen the price fluctuation range [6][27] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In August, the main contracts of natural rubber (RU), 20 - numbered rubber (NR), and synthetic rubber (BR) had monthly increases of 3.12%, 3.04%, and 3.66% respectively, with corresponding increases in positions of 56,608 lots, 5,873 lots, and 19,561 lots. The domestic stock market rose unilaterally in August, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation increased. The cost of rubber was supported by weather, the monthly rubber inventory decreased slightly, and the downstream tire demand had resilience [6] 2. Data Analysis - **Raw material prices**: As of August 28, the glue price in Thailand was 55.45 Thai baht/kg, the cup - glue price was 50.7 Thai baht/kg, the glue price in Yunnan, China was 14,300 yuan/ton, and the raw material price in Hainan was 13,200 yuan/ton. The raw material prices in major producing areas were firm, and the cost support would remain in September due to weather affecting the peak - season output [8] - **Imports**: In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 47.48 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 360.05 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82%. Thailand's exports decreased significantly, while Vietnam and Laos had obvious increases. Vietnam became the second - largest source country [10] - **Inventory**: As of August 22, the spot inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, general trade spot inventory, and domestic third - party inventory all decreased slightly compared to the beginning of the month but were higher than the same period last year. The overall inventory had a slight structural improvement but still faced greater pressure than last year [13] - **Raw material and production cost**: In August, the domestic butadiene price fluctuated within a narrow range. The theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber enterprises was 240.4286 yuan/ton, and the loss range fluctuated within a narrow range [15] - **Butadiene rubber inventory**: As of August 29, the total inventory of butadiene rubber sample production and trading enterprises was 3.172 tons, with a small change from the beginning of the month but an increase of 7,370 tons compared to last year. The inventory removal was under pressure due to increased supply [18] - **Tire exports**: In July 2025, the export volume of China's truck and bus tires reached 45.44 tons, breaking the monthly record for the third time this year. The export volume of passenger car tires was 32.59 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.78% and a year - on - year increase of 7.20%. However, the export pressure is expected to increase in the fourth quarter [19] - **Tire inventory**: As of the end of August, the inventory turnover days of all - steel tires were about 39 days, 4 days less than last year, with good inventory removal. The inventory turnover days of semi - steel tires were about 46 days, 4 days more than last year, with slow inventory removal [21] - **Tire capacity utilization**: As of August 29, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89%, a 5.63% increase from the beginning of the month and a 5.1% increase year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97%, with little change from the beginning of the month but an 8.73% decrease year - on - year [23] 3. Future Outlook - The macro - environment has limited impact on the commodity market, and the actual improvement of terminal demand needs further observation. The rubber cost is supported by weather, the inventory has a slight structural improvement, and the downstream tire demand may be boosted in the "Golden September and Silver October" season. However, whether the supply - demand relationship can be substantially improved depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory removal speed [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, geopolitical uncertainties are the core factors disturbing the oil market, while the weakening fundamentals of crude oil are suppressing the price. In the medium to long term, the dual pressure of OPEC+ accelerating production increase and structural demand slowdown restricts the upward space of oil prices, but shale oil costs provide support. The oil price is expected to continue a wide - range oscillating trend. It is recommended to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $59 - 66 per barrel, and consider short - selling if geopolitical risks are effectively alleviated [6][55]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In August, crude oil prices first declined and then rose, showing a weak trend overall. The decline was due to the easing of geopolitical tensions and the expectation of supply increase and demand decrease, while the subsequent rise was supported by shale oil costs and renewed geopolitical disturbances. In the future, considering the supply - demand situation, the oil price is expected to oscillate widely [6]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **Geopolitical Factors**: The "Putin - Trump meeting" in early August alleviated supply concerns and reduced the risk premium of crude oil. Trump's subsequent threat of sanctions on Russia reignited supply concerns, but the market is desensitized, and the oil price rebound space is limited. The Russia - Ukraine conflict is difficult to resolve in the short term, and geopolitical uncertainties will continuously interfere with the supply expectation [7]. - **Economic Data**: The US July non - farm payrolls data was lower than expected, and the data for May and June were revised downwards. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September increased. The July CPI data was generally in line with expectations. Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting further increased the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, but the market has basically priced in the rate cut, so its impact on the market may be limited [10][13]. - **Fed Personnel Changes**: Trump removed Fed Governor Lisa Cook from office, and Cook filed a lawsuit. The impact of these personnel changes on the Fed's monetary policy remains to be seen [13]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - **OPEC+**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, completing the 2.2 million barrels per day production recovery target one year ahead of schedule. The market has fully priced in the production increase, and attention should be paid to the actual increase in production in the future. Kazakhstan failed to effectively implement production cuts in July, which may lead to concerns about an internal price war within OPEC+ [15][16][17]. - **Non - OPEC**: In July, non - OPEC crude oil production increased, mainly due to Russia's production increase. The US crude oil production also rebounded in August, but the increase in production is limited due to various factors. The number of US oil rigs decreased, indicating weak production willingness [24][26][28]. - **Demand Side** - **China**: In July, China's apparent crude oil consumption decreased by 2.71% month - on - month. The growth rate of China's crude oil demand may slow down in the future, and the growth of crude oil consumption will be more driven by chemical demand. The manufacturing PMI in July decreased, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity [34][40]. - **US**: As of August 22, the US refinery utilization rate decreased, and the manufacturing PMI decreased in July, while the Chicago PMI rebounded. The US EIA crude oil inventory decreased slightly, but the decline was less than in previous years. With the end of the peak consumption season for refined oil, the demand for crude oil may weaken seasonally [41][45][50].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal market is in a stage of "strong expectation, weak reality", with the disk continuing the "Contango" structure. The short - term price of coking coal will mainly fluctuate and consolidate at a high level. The coke market has intensified the game between steel and coke enterprises, and the short - term coke disk will fluctuate following coking coal [32][35] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - In August, the double - coke disk reached a stage high and then fluctuated weakly. Before the position limit of the 01 contract by the exchange, the trading volume of coking coal soared. After the position limit, the trading volume decreased and the disk volatility narrowed. As the speculative sentiment cooled and the 09 contract was about to enter the delivery month, the market trading gradually returned to reality. Although the procurement willingness of steel mills, coking enterprises and spot - futures traders weakened and the inventory showed a small accumulation inflection point, the high - level iron - water production supported the consumption of double - coke, and the price decline space was limited. The overall price fluctuated within a range in August [7] 2. Data Analysis Coking Coal Supply - As of the week of August 29, the operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 36.52%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.31%, and the daily output of clean coal was 25.98 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.72 tons. The operating rate of 523 sample mine enterprises was 84.04%, a year - on - year decrease of 6.18%, and the daily output of clean coal was 75.32 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.54 tons. The supply of coking coal was relatively stable with limited incremental space [10] - In July 2025, China imported 962.3 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2% and a month - on - month increase of 5.7%. The import concentration increased. The import volume came from Mongolia, Russia, Canada, Australia and Indonesia. The total import volume of coking coal this year was less than that of the same period last year [11] Coking Coal Inventory - As of the week of August 29, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 283.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.24 million tons and an increase of 35.36 million tons from the beginning of the month; the clean coal inventory of sample coal washing plants was 289.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 147.53 million tons and a slight increase of 3.47 million tons from the beginning of the month; the port coking coal inventory was 275.35 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86.98 million tons and a slight decrease of 6.76 million tons from the beginning of the month. The inventory pressure was significantly reduced [15] - As of August 29, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 961.27 million tons, an increase of 109.59 million tons compared with the same period last year, and the available inventory days were 11.2 days, an increase of 1.16 days compared with the same period last year; the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 811.85 million tons, an increase of 77.39 million tons compared with the same period last year, and the available inventory days were 13.25 days, an increase of 1.49 days compared with the same period last year. The downstream replenishment rhythm of coking coal slowed down [18] Coke Production - As of the week of August 29, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 73.36%, 3.74% higher than the same period last year, and the daily output of metallurgical coke was 64.52 million tons, an increase of 0.77 million tons compared with the same period last year; the coke capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 84.99%, a decrease of 1.72% compared with the same period last year, and the daily output of coke was 46.09 million tons, a decrease of 0.87 million tons compared with the same period last year. The overall capacity utilization rate decreased significantly at the end of the month due to environmental protection requirements [22] Coke Demand and Inventory - As of the week of August 29, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 63.64%, an increase of 59.74% compared with the same period last year and a slight decrease from the beginning of the month; the daily output of hot metal was 240.13 million tons, an increase of 19.24 million tons compared with the same period last year and little change from the beginning of the month; the weekly coke consumption was 108.06 million tons, an increase of 8.66 million tons compared with the same period last year and little change from the beginning of the month. The coke consumption was supported [25] - As of the week of August 29, the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 65.31 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.62 million tons and continued to decline from the beginning of the month; the coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 610.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 68.19 million tons; the port coke inventory was 212.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.94 million tons. The inventory pressure of independent coking enterprises was reduced [27] Coke Profit - As of the week of August 29, the average profit per ton of coke of independent coking enterprises was 55 yuan/ton. After several rounds of price increases and the volatile operation of coking coal prices, the profits of coking enterprises improved significantly. The game between steel and coke enterprises intensified, and the eighth round of price increase was not implemented [28] 3. Future Market Outlook - The coking coal market is in a stage of "strong expectation, weak reality". The short - term price will mainly fluctuate and consolidate at a high level. Pay attention to the incremental situation on the supply side after the parade [32] - The profits of coking enterprises have improved significantly. The game between steel and coke enterprises has intensified. The short - term coke disk will fluctuate following coking coal [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In August, the asphalt market showed a situation of weak supply and demand. The weakening asphalt cracking spread led to a decline in production, and heavy rainfall affected terminal construction, keeping social inventory at a high level. Geopolitical factors drove oil prices, but the market was desensitized to unfulfilled sanctions. With the asphalt demand ending and no seasonal increase in supply, the market lacks clear direction. The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate around crude oil, with limited upside potential for oil prices due to long - term supply surplus expectations, but supported by shale oil costs and geopolitical disturbances. The price is expected to continue a wide - range oscillatory trend, and the BU2510 contract can be monitored in the range of 3400 - 3630 yuan/ton [68]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In August, the asphalt futures price showed a weakening trend. The asphalt fundamentals had characteristics of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The output increased with the rising refinery operating rate, while demand weakened due to heavy rainfall. The social inventory remained at a high level, and the weakening fundamentals and downward cost drivers jointly led to the weakening of the asphalt futures price [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - **Geopolitical Factors**: The US - Russia "Putin - Trump meeting" in August initially alleviated market concerns about supply shortages, causing the risk premium of crude oil to decline rapidly. Subsequently, Trump's threat of sanctions reignited market concerns about supply disruptions, supporting oil prices to some extent. However, due to the non - implementation of previous sanctions, the market was desensitized, and the upside space for oil prices was limited. The Russia - Ukraine conflict is difficult to resolve in the short term, and geopolitical uncertainties will continuously interfere with crude oil supply expectations [8]. - **US Economic Data**: The US July non - farm payrolls data was lower than expected, and the data for May and June were revised downward. After the release of the employment data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates at the next meeting increased. The July CPI data was generally in line with expectations, with the core CPI reaching the highest level since February [11]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **OPEC+**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in September, with a production adjustment of 547,000 barrels per day. The market has fully priced in the production increase, but the focus is on the speed and scale of implementation. It is expected that the production increase will be realized by the end of the fourth quarter. Kazakhstan failed to effectively implement production cuts in July, which may lead to the ineffectiveness of the production cut agreement among OPEC+ members and raise concerns about internal price wars [13][14][15]. - **Supply Forecasts by Institutions**: In August, IEA, EIA, and OPEC had different views on global crude oil supply and demand growth expectations. IEA raised the supply growth forecast by 400,000 barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 19,000 barrels per day, holding a pessimistic outlook. EIA and OPEC maintained their previous forecasts, expecting an improvement in demand due to the easing of global trade tensions [17]. - **Domestic Asphalt Supply**: In August, the domestic asphalt cumulative output was 2.45 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100,000 tons, or 3.9%. The operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 29.3% as of August 27th, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from the previous statistical period and 3.7 percentage points from the same period last month. The decline in cracking spread and heavy rainfall affected refinery production and operating rates [20][29]. - **Domestic Asphalt Demand**: In August, the domestic asphalt shipment volume was 1.79 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 77,000 tons. The weekly shipment volume increased after the rainfall ended. As of August 29th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic modified asphalt was 17.14%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9 percentage points, but the long - term demand growth space is limited [30][33]. - **Trade**: In July, the domestic asphalt imports were 380,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,800 tons and a year - on - year increase of 16.53%. The cumulative imports from January to July were 2.1055 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.50%. The exports in July were 55,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26,200 tons. The cumulative exports from January to July were 334,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 46.45% [40][43]. - **Inventory**: As of August 29th, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 674,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 42,000 tons and a decrease of 26,000 tons from the same period last month. The social inventory was 1.27 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22,000 tons and a decrease of 73,000 tons from the same period last month. The social inventory was still at a high level [52][59]. - **Price Spreads**: As of August 29th, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing dilution was - 593.1 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 118.4 yuan/ton. The asphalt basis was 197 yuan/ton, and as of August 25th, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 54.25. The asphalt cracking spread showed a narrow - range oscillation, and the basis first weakened and then strengthened, indicating weak demand support for prices [66]. 3.4 Market Outlook - In August, the domestic asphalt market had a weak supply - demand situation. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate around crude oil prices, with a wide - range oscillatory trend. The BU2510 contract can be monitored in the range of 3400 - 3630 yuan/ton [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of platinum and palladium is highly concentrated and growth - restricted. Their prices depend on real supply - demand patterns and speculative activities. The demand for both has declined from historical highs, with platinum's demand being slightly better than palladium's in recent years. In 2025, there will be a supply - demand gap for platinum and a surplus for palladium. Platinum prices are expected to strengthen, while palladium may continue to face pressure [94][96][98]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basic Concepts - Platinum is a rare noble metal with high stability, corrosion resistance, and good ductility. It is often associated with other metals in the platinum - group. Palladium, discovered in 1803, has unique physical and chemical properties, high catalytic activity, and is widely used in environmental protection, medical treatment, and other fields. After heat treatment, it becomes soft and malleable, and can be slowly dissolved in certain acids [4][8]. - Palladium's various properties make it widely used in different fields. It is used as a catalyst in the chemical industry, for hydrogen storage and sensing, in electronic components, and forms alloys for jewelry and other industrial applications [10]. 3.2 Supply and Demand 3.2.1 Platinum Supply - The platinum industry chain includes upstream mines, where low - grade ores are refined into products like platinum ingots and sponge platinum. In the middle - stream, it is used to make catalysts, compounds, electrodes, etc. Downstream applications are in jewelry, investment, the automotive industry, and the hydrogen industry [13]. - The supply of platinum is mainly from mines, with South Africa accounting for over 70% of global reserves. Recycling is also an important source, which consists of scrap - car catalyst recycling, jewelry recycling, and industrial recycling. In 2024, the recycling supply was 47.6 tons, up 1% from 2023, and is expected to reach 48.9 tons in 2025. However, global platinum supply is still restricted, with a projected 4% decline in 2025 [15][17][21]. 3.2.2 Platinum Demand - In the past five years, the automotive sector has had the highest demand for platinum (37%), followed by industry (31%), jewelry (26%), and investment (6%). The automotive demand for platinum depends on factors such as the number of vehicles, vehicle size, and power - system trends. Global automotive platinum demand decreased by 2% in 2024 to 96.6 tons and is expected to decline by another 2% in 2025 to 94.9 tons [24]. - In the industrial field, platinum is used in five main areas: chemical (28% average weight in the past five years), glass (24%), medical (12%), petroleum (7%), and electronics (5%). The demand from the fixed - hydrogen and other areas is expected to grow by 35% in 2025 to 1.8 tons, while the other industrial demand is expected to slightly decline by 1% to 17.7 tons [26][31][39]. - Platinum jewelry demand is relatively stable in the past 10 years, with different trends in different regions. Its demand is driven by economic growth, social changes, consumption habits, and price changes [42][43]. - Platinum investment demand includes physical and virtual forms. Chinese physical investment demand has been increasing, and European platinum ETFs have the largest持仓 [65][66]. 3.2.3 Palladium Supply - The palladium industry chain involves upstream mining and smelting, mainly in South Africa and Russia, mid - stream processing into compounds and catalysts, and downstream recycling. The main palladium deposits are in South Africa, Russia, etc. The global annual palladium production is about 190 tons, with South Africa and Russia accounting for 38.1% and 39.6% respectively. In 2024, the global palladium recycling volume was about 83.35 tons, accounting for 30.6% of the total supply [44][49][52]. 3.2.4 Palladium Demand - In 2024, the main demand for palladium was from automotive catalysts (82.3%), followed by chemical (5.4%), dental (1.8%), etc. It is mainly used in gasoline - powered vehicle catalysts to reduce emissions, with about 80% used in automotive three - way catalysts. China, Europe, Japan, and North America are major demand regions [55][56]. - Palladium's industrial demand has declined from 25% in 2010 to about 11% currently. It is widely used in various industrial fields and is crucial for the hydrogen industry [57]. - Palladium jewelry demand is low, accounting for about 0.8% of the total demand. Its investment demand includes bars, coins, and ETFs, but the scale of the well - known palladium ETF has decreased significantly [61][68]. 3.3 Interpretation of Platinum and Palladium Futures Contracts (Draft for Soliciting Opinions) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has released a draft for platinum and palladium futures contracts. The draft has adjusted some details compared to the previous design. The price limits and margin requirements are set higher than those of gold and silver futures to cover price fluctuations [70][71]. - The futures use a three - stage gradient margin system. The price limit for normal months is 4%, and for delivery months, it is 6% [74][77]. - The exchange innovatively includes ingots, sponge, and powder forms of platinum and palladium in the delivery. The delivery unit is 1000 grams per hand. The delivery place may be concentrated in mining areas, recycling areas, and southeastern coastal cities [84][85][90]. 3.4 Future Outlook - The supply of platinum and palladium is concentrated and growth - restricted. The demand has declined from historical highs. In 2025, platinum will have a supply - demand gap, while palladium will have a surplus. Platinum prices are expected to strengthen, and palladium may face pressure [94][96][98].

1. Report Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai aluminum market is expected to oscillate, with attention on the 20,500 support level of the 60 - day average line. The market is influenced by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decision, domestic economic policies, and the supply - demand relationship in the aluminum industry [5]. - The traditional peak season is expected to drive marginal improvement in some sectors of the aluminum processing industry, but the overall terminal demand has not fully recovered [34]. - The profit of domestic electrolytic aluminum is expected to remain above 3,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year, with limited growth in production and low inventory providing support [31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The US economic data shows strong resilience, with the manufacturing PMI in August reaching the highest level since May 2022. The Fed's decision on interest rates and the impact of tariffs on inflation are the focus of the market. The domestic economy is relatively stable, and the implementation of stable - growth policies continues [9][11][15]. - The domestic aluminum market is affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationship, policies, and international economic situation. The traditional peak season is expected to drive marginal improvement in demand, but the overall recovery is still weak [34]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: The expected improvement in demand in the US manufacturing industry and the implementation of domestic stable - growth policies are expected to boost aluminum consumption. The low inventory of electrolytic aluminum also provides support for prices [9][15][31]. - **Bearish factors**: The expected oversupply of alumina, the weak downstream demand in the off - season, and the potential impact of the US steel and aluminum tariff increase on market sentiment [24][37][17]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Aluminum ore**: In 2025, from January to July, the domestic aluminum ore production increased year - on - year. The import volume of bauxite from Guinea has been at a high level, but the rainy season in Guinea has affected the shipment volume. The supply of alumina is expected to be in surplus, and the production of electrolytic aluminum has limited growth space [19][23][25]. - **Downstream demand**: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly this week. The output of aluminum products in July decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. The automobile industry maintained high prosperity, while the real estate market continued to decline [34][37][41]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of LME aluminum remained stable, while the inventory of SHFE aluminum decreased this week. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum alloy increased slightly [47][50][61]. - **Price**: The domestic spot aluminum price changed from flat to premium, and the LME aluminum discount narrowed [52]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The Shanghai aluminum market is expected to oscillate, with attention on the 20,500 support level of the 60 - day average line. The market will continue to be affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decision, domestic economic policies, and the supply - demand relationship in the aluminum industry [66].