1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current low inventory of aluminum keeps the price from significant decline, with support at the 20,000 integer level [5][57]. - The economic reality in the US remains strong, but whether the upside space can be opened requires preventive interest - rate cuts. Attention should be paid to inflation clues and tariff impacts [11]. - In China, the economy showed marginal weakness in June, and it is recommended to focus on the long - term policy framework transformation [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US initial jobless claims decreased by 7,000 to 221,000 last week, reaching the lowest level since mid - April, indicating a resilient job market. US retail sales in June rebounded strongly, with a 0.6% month - on - month increase [11]. - US CPI in June was in line with market expectations, while core CPI was lower than expected, starting to reflect the tariff's impact on the retail end [11]. - Domestically, the production capacity of the domestic electrolytic aluminum smelting industry changed little, with a slight increase in output. The demand side was affected by the seasonal consumption off - season and high aluminum prices, and the operating rate of downstream industries declined [5]. - The visible inventory of aluminum remained at a low level. As of July 17, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 471,000 tons, 12,000 tons less than on Monday [5][50]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - The overall output of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated little, and the visible inventory remained at a low level. The spot changed from a discount to a premium [8]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - The operating rate in the aluminum processing sector continued to decline, and macro - sentiment uncertainty still existed [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis 3.3.1 Domestic Ore - From January to May 2025, the domestic ore output was 25.2 million tons, with a theoretical expected increase of 3.3 million tons to 61.3 million tons for the year, only meeting about 28% of domestic alumina raw material demand [17]. 3.3.2 Ore Price - Since the beginning of this year, the import price of bauxite has been continuously lowered. In June 2025, China's aluminum ore imports were 18.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.2% [21]. 3.3.3 Alumina - The alumina price has been adjusted upwards recently. With the increase in supply, the short - term spot price is stable. The output of alumina continues to rise, and the supply surplus is expected to be strong [24]. 3.3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - In May 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum output was 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The current operating capacity is about 44.15 million tons, and the subsequent increase is limited [28]. 3.3.5 Aluminum Demand - In June 2025, China's aluminum product output was 5.874 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%. From January to June, the output was 32.768 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. Domestic aluminum product exports declined year - on - year, but demand from the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle sectors increased significantly [31]. 3.3.6 Downstream Operating Rate - Affected by high aluminum prices and the deepening off - season, the average operating rate of processing enterprises decreased by 0.1% to 58.6% this week [35]. 3.3.7 Real Estate - From January to June, national real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. The construction area, new construction area, and completion area all declined [39]. 3.3.8 Automobile - In June, China's automobile exports reached 592,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 22.2%. New - energy vehicle exports were 205,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 140% [43]. 3.3.9 Inventory - Last week, LME aluminum inventory increased, and SHFE aluminum inventory also increased. As of July 17, the electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 471,000 tons, 12,000 tons less than on Monday [47][50]. 3.3.10 Price Premium - On July 17, the average price of aluminum in Shanghai Wumaomao changed from a discount to a premium of 110 yuan/ton, while the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium widened [54]. 3.4后市研判 - The price of Shanghai aluminum is difficult to decline significantly under the current low - inventory situation, with support at the 20,000 integer level [57].

Group 1: Report Summary - As of July 15, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 58.89%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.09 percentage points. Non - housing project capital availability rate was 60.37%, down 0.09 percentage points week - on - week, and housing project capital availability rate was 51.68%, down 0.08 percentage points week - on - week [5] - This week, the double - coking futures continued the upward trend of last week, but the momentum slowed down. Coking coal inventory continued to decline, reducing inventory pressure and releasing price elasticity. The "anti - involution" theme led by "polysilicon" strengthened, driving the recovery of the commodity bullish atmosphere. The supply - side reform focus shifted to new energy industries, and the impact on the black series was expected to be limited. Coke enterprises replenished coking coal inventory, while steel mills were more cautious [6] Group 2: Market Focus - From July 14 - 15, the Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing, emphasizing the shift from "large - scale incremental expansion" to "stock quality improvement and efficiency enhancement" in urban development [7] - The China National Coal Association held a symposium on the coal economic operation in the first half of the year, emphasizing safety, scientific production, supply quality improvement, and market balance [7] - Coking coal production in China continued to resume, and the closure of Mongolian coal ports ended. Coking coal inventory decreased significantly, coke enterprises replenished raw materials and coke inventory continued to decline, steel mills' raw material replenishment was limited, coke production changed little, iron - water production rebounded, and a new round of coke price increase was implemented [7] Group 3: Bull - Bear Focus - Bullish factors include coke enterprises' concentrated replenishment, obvious decline in coking coal inventory, supply - side reform leading to supply contraction expectations, and the rebound of iron - water production [10] - Bearish factors include the seasonal off - season of steel, limited downstream demand, and the expected increase in Mongolian coal imports after the port closure ended [10] Group 4: Data Analysis - The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.07%, up 0.55% from last week, and the daily average clean coal output was 77.04 tons, an increase of 0.54 tons. The operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 62.85%, up 0.53% from last week, and the daily output was 53.375 tons, an increase of 0.79 tons. The three major ports resumed customs clearance on July 16, but the customs clearance was expected to remain low until July 21 due to the Naadam Festival in Mongolia [13] - As of the week of July 18, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 339.07 tons, a decrease of 38.11 tons from last week; the clean coal inventory of 110 sample coal washing plants was 191.54 tons, a decrease of 5.53 tons; and the port inventory was 321.5 tons, a decrease of 0.14 tons [16] - As of July 18, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 929.11 tons, an increase of 36.76 tons, and the inventory - available days were 10.88 days, an increase of 0.41 days. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 87.55 tons, a decrease of 5.53 tons [19] - As of July 18, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 791.1 tons, an increase of 8.17 tons, and the inventory - available days were 12.63 days, an increase of 0.15 days. The coke inventory was 638.99 tons, an increase of 1.19 tons, and the available days were 11.46 days, a decrease of 0.18 days [23] - As of July 18, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 73.01%, an increase of 0.14% from the previous period, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 64.21 tons, an increase of 0.13 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 86.84%, a decrease of 0.18% from the previous period, and the daily coke output was 47.09 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons [25] - As of the week of July 18, China's coke consumption was 109.1 tons, an increase of 1.19 tons. The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel enterprises was 242.44 tons, an increase of 2.63 tons, and the blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, an increase of 0.31% from last week [27] - As of the week of July 18, the average loss per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 43 yuan/ton, which was improved compared with last week. On July 17, the mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong raised the coke purchase price, with dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton and wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton [29] - The spot and futures prices of double - coking rose in resonance [31] Group 5: Market Outlook - Coking coal inventory continued to decline, reducing inventory pressure and releasing price elasticity. The "anti - involution" theme led by "polysilicon" strengthened, driving the recovery of the commodity bullish atmosphere. The impact of supply - side reform on the black series was expected to be limited. The driving force for price increase was expected to slow down as supply and demand re - balanced. In the short term, attention should be paid to the impact of Mongolian coal imports on prices after the port re - opened [34] - A new round of coke price increase was implemented. With the support of coking coal costs, the game between steel and coke enterprises intensified, and there was still an expectation of further price increases. The coke futures followed the coking coal futures [37]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's latest meeting minutes show differences among members regarding future prospects, mainly due to different expectations of tax impacts on inflation. The initial jobless claims in the US have decreased for four consecutive weeks, reaching the lowest level in two months, while continuing claims remain at the highest level since the end of last year. Some Fed officials believe that two interest rate cuts within the year are most likely, and the impact of tariffs on prices is milder than expected, boosting market risk appetite. Domestically, tin smelters face raw material supply pressure, with the resumption of production in the Wa State of Myanmar still uncertain. Recently, tin prices have adjusted, and smelters are holding firm on prices, with few transactions. Traders' quotes follow the market, and the willingness of downstream buyers to take delivery has increased, with overall market trading performing well. Tin prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Report Summary - The Fed's meeting minutes reveal differences among members on future prospects, mainly due to different inflation expectations influenced by taxes. US initial jobless claims have dropped for four consecutive weeks, hitting a two - month low, while continuing claims are at a high since late last year. Some Fed officials see two potential rate cuts this year, and tariff impacts on prices are milder than expected, enhancing market risk preference. Domestically, tin smelters face raw material supply pressure, and the resumption in Myanmar's Wa State is uncertain. Tin prices have adjusted, smelters are holding prices, and trading is sluggish. Traders' quotes follow the market, and downstream buying interest has increased, with overall trading performing well [5]. Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: The resumption rhythm of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is still uncertain; overseas inventories have declined; the US dollar index remains at a low level [7]. - Bearish factors: The consumer end is in the industry's off - season, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules has significantly decreased [7]. Data Analysis - **Supply and demand balance**: In April 2025, global refined tin production was 29,800 tons, consumption was 30,400 tons, with a supply shortage of 600 tons. From January to April 2025, production was 119,400 tons, consumption was 111,700 tons, with a supply surplus of 7,700 tons. In April 2025, global tin ore production was 27,600 tons, and from January to April, it was 103,700 tons [9]. - **Price and basis**: This week, tin futures prices remained volatile. The basis of Shanghai tin was - 1,810 yuan/ton, changing from premium to discount; the LME tin premium was 22.21 dollars/ton, changing from discount to premium [12]. - **Smelter operating rate**: Recently, the weekly operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have been slightly rising. As of this week, the combined operating rate of the two provinces reached 53.97%. Yunnan smelters face tight tin ore supply, and although the operating rate rose slightly by 4.13% this week, it is still far below the level in Q4 2024. Jiangxi smelters rely on waste tin recycling, but poor terminal consumption has led to a decline in recycling volume and increased production costs. It is expected that the operating rates of smelters in the two regions will remain low in July [15]. - **Import data**: In May 2025, China's tin ore imports were 13,400 tons (equivalent to about 6,518 metal tons), a month - on - month increase of 36.39% and a year - on - year increase of 59.84%. From January to May, the cumulative import volume was 50,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 36.51%. In May, China's tin ingot imports were 2,076 tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.04% and a year - on - year increase of 225.9%. From January to May, the cumulative import volume was 9,584 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 38.48%. In May, refined tin exports were 1,770 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.19%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume was 9,584 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.48%, with imports and exports basically balanced [18][24]. - **Production data**: In May 2025, domestic refined tin production was 14,670 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.34%. From January to May, the cumulative production was 72,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.75%. It is expected that in June 2025, domestic refined tin production will be around 13,800 tons [21]. - **Automobile industry data**: In June 2025, China's new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 26.4% and 26.7%. From January to June, production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3%. In June, China's total automobile exports were 592,000, a month - on - month increase of 7.4% and a year - on - year increase of 22.2% [27]. - **Solder industry data**: In May, the solder operating rate was 72.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.1%. The operating rates of large, medium, and small solder enterprises all decreased [30]. - **Inventory data**: The latest LME tin inventory is 2,015 tons, reaching the lowest level in nearly two years. As of the week of July 4, Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory increased by 3.49% to 7,198 tons [34]. 后市研判 - Tin prices will maintain a volatile pattern [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil prices showed an overall oscillating and strengthening trend, driven by the expected improvement in the supply - demand structure. The market has basically priced in OPEC+ production increases, and the actual increase is far lower than planned. Meanwhile, the traditional gasoline consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere in the third quarter has led to rising refinery operating rates and increased crude oil consumption. The "strong reality, weak expectation" fundamental pattern of crude oil will support the strengthening of near - month contracts, and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut will repair market risk appetite. It is expected that oil prices will continue the oscillating and strengthening trend in the short term [8][52] - It is recommended to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $64 - 69 per barrel [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Report Abstract - Market focus: OPEC+ unexpectedly expanded production increases, with a planned 548,000 barrels per day increase in September. Kazakhstan plans to maintain oil production at the current level until the end of the year [7] - Key data: As of the week ending July 4, the EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 464,000 barrels (previous value - 1.493 million barrels); EIA crude oil inventory was 7.07 million barrels (expected - 2.071 million barrels, previous value 3.845 million barrels); EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 238,000 barrels (previous value 239,000 barrels) [7] 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: Expected demand improvement, geopolitical uncertainty [12] - Bearish factors: Expectation of OPEC+ continued production increase, uncertainty of tariff policy [12] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The US postponed the effective date of reciprocal tariffs to August 1. It will impose a 25% tariff on Japanese and South Korean products from August 1, 2025, and a 35% tariff on Canadian goods from the same date. It will also impose a 50% tariff on imported copper from August 1, 2025 [13] - The Fed's internal differences are significant, and the pace of interest rate cuts is uncertain. Most officials believe that tariff policies may have a more lasting impact on inflation. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December 2025, and in March and June 2026 [14] - OPEC maintained the expected growth of global crude oil demand and economic growth, and lowered the forecast of US and other non - OPEC+ oil supply growth in 2026. IEA raised the forecast of global oil supply growth and lowered the forecast of oil demand growth, maintaining the expectation of crude oil supply surplus [15] 3.4 Data Analysis Supply - On July 5, eight OPEC+ member countries announced a production increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. The market has basically priced in the increase, and the impact is relatively limited [16] - As of the week ending July 4, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels to 13.385 million barrels per day, and is expected to remain low due to profit pressure [18] - As of the week ending July 4, the total number of US oil rigs was 425, a decrease of 7 from the previous period. The number of rigs has been declining since April and is expected to remain low [20] Demand - As of the week ending July 4, US crude oil implied demand decreased by 1.415 million barrels per day week - on - week, while gasoline production implied demand increased by 3.7782 million barrels per day week - on - week, indicating a temporary weakening of crude oil consumption and a continued improvement in refined oil consumption [27] - As of the week ending July 4, the US refinery operating rate was 94.7%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous period. It is expected to remain stable [28] - As of July 10, the operating rate of domestic major refineries in China was 81.47%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous period, and that of local independent refineries was 58.02%, up 0.77 percentage points. Major refineries are expected to maintain an upward trend, while local refineries are expected to remain stable [34] - As of July 11, the comprehensive refining profit of domestic major refineries was 1,020.78 yuan/ton, down 112.75 yuan/ton from the previous period, and that of local independent refineries was 365.34 yuan/ton, down 70.54 yuan/ton. High profits will stimulate the operating rate of major refineries [38] Inventory - As of the week ending July 4, the US EIA crude oil inventory was 7.07 million barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 238,000 barrels. Crude oil inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks, and strategic inventory is being replenished. It is expected to remain low [43] - As of the week ending July 4, the EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 464,000 barrels, and the EIA gasoline inventory as of the week ending June 6 was 229.46 million barrels, a decrease of 2.658 million barrels from the previous period [48] Crack Spread - As of July 9, the US crude oil crack spread was $20.16 per barrel, showing a slight week - on - week decline but ending the previous downward trend, reflecting the recovery of US gasoline consumption [49] 3.5 Future Market Outlook - The short - term oil price is expected to continue the oscillating and strengthening trend, supported by the "strong reality, weak expectation" fundamental pattern of crude oil and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [52]

Group 1: Report Summary - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes show differences among members regarding the outlook, mainly due to concerns about the impact of tariffs on inflation [4]. - US initial jobless claims reached a four - week low, while continuing claims remained at the highest level since the end of 2021 [4]. - Some Federal Reserve officials believe there may be two interest rate cuts this year, and the impact of tariffs on prices is milder than expected, boosting market risk appetite [4]. - In the zinc market, smelting fees are relatively wide, zinc mine production is abundant, and new projects have started production, with zinc ingot output exceeding expectations [4]. - In the lead market, refined lead supply remains tight, with more maintenance in electrolytic lead smelting enterprises, and the traditional consumption season is gradually starting [4]. Group 2: Bull - Bear Focus Zinc - Bullish factors: The US dollar index remains low, and there are short - term fluctuations in smelting maintenance [7]. - Bearish factors: Zinc ingot production in June increased more than expected, and the overall inventory build - up expectation is stronger [7]. Lead - Bullish factors: Secondary lead cost support, rising prices of waste batteries, and the gradual start of the traditional consumption season [10]. - Bearish factors: The actual restocking strength of downstream is relatively limited [10]. Group 3: Data Analysis Zinc - In May 2025, China's zinc ore sand and concentrate imports were 491,522.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% and a year - on - year increase of 85.28%. Imported zinc ore processing fees are showing a rebound [12]. - In June, the average domestic zinc concentrate TC increased by 150 yuan/metal ton to 3,650 yuan/metal ton, and the average imported ore TC increased by 10 dollars/dry ton to 55 dollars/dry ton [15]. - Zinc concentrate prices declined slightly. The price of 50% zinc concentrate in Hechi was 17,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week; in Chenzhou, it was 17,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton from last week [20]. - In May 2025, China's zinc production was 583,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. In June, new capacity was released in some areas, and some previous maintenance enterprises resumed production [23]. - In May 2025, China's refined zinc imports were 26,716.511 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.85% [26]. - LME zinc inventory has been declining, and as of last week, it was 105,600 tons. SHFE zinc inventory increased by 3.97% to 45,364 tons in the week of July 4 [33]. Lead - In June, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 26.4% and 26.7%. In June, China's total automobile exports were 592,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 22.2% [30]. - From January to May, China's real estate development investment cumulative year - on - year growth rate was - 10.7%, and the new construction area cumulative year - on - year growth rate was - 22.8% [30]. - This week, the lead futures and spot prices continued to rise, with a basis of 25 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread weakened [37]. - The weekly price of 60% lead concentrate in Kunming increased by 125 yuan/ton, and in Baoji, it increased by 34 yuan/ton [41]. - As of July 4, the lead concentrate processing fee in Jiyuan was 800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week; in Chenzhou, it was 300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton; in Gejiu, it was 300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton [41]. - In May 2025, China's lead production was 649,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7%. In June, more electrolytic lead smelting enterprises had maintenance, and some secondary lead smelters had a recovery expectation [44]. - The primary lead operating rate increased to 68.46% month - on - month [47]. - The secondary lead enterprise operating rate increased by 0.20 percentage points to 34.8% month - on - month [49]. - The lead - acid battery operating rate increased by 3.06 percentage points to 71.83% month - on - month [52]. - As of July 10, LME lead inventory decreased to 252,375 tons. SHFE lead inventory increased by 2.65% to 53,303 tons in the week of July 4 [56]. Group 4: Market Outlook - For zinc, it is recommended to mainly operate in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 [59]. - For lead, it is recommended to operate in the range of 16,500 - 17,500 [59].

1. Report Summary - OPEC+ expanded production more than expected, planning to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, and Kazakhstan planned to maintain oil production at the current level until the end of the year [6][7] - As of July 9, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 32.7%, up 1 percentage point from the previous statistical period; as of July 11, the weekly output was 566,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous week; the factory inventory was 763,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25,000 tons; the social inventory was 1.312 million tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the previous week [8] - It was recommended to focus on the range of 3,550 - 3,700 yuan/ton for the BU2509 contract [8] - This week, the asphalt fundamentals showed signs of weakening. The supply side saw an increase in weekly output and operating rate, and the demand side had a slight increase in shipments. Refinery shipments were poor, leading to an increase in factory inventory, while social inventory decreased slightly. With the end of rainfall in the south, downstream demand recovered, but social inventory was still high [8] - OPEC+ continued to increase production this week, with limited impact. Oil prices fluctuated strongly with the expectation of marginal improvement in demand. Crude oil lacked obvious drivers, and it was expected that short - term WTI oil prices would continue to fluctuate strongly. The asphalt supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and crude oil fluctuations would dominate the market [8] 2. Multi - empty Focus - The long factors for asphalt were marginal improvement in supply and demand and low inventory; the short factors were the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Palestine and high supply [11] 3. Macroeconomic Analysis 3.1 Tariff Policy - The US postponed the effective date of "reciprocal tariffs" from July 9 to August 1 - The US would impose a 25% tariff on all Japanese and South Korean products from August 1, 2025 - Trump announced a new round of tariff notices, including a 50% tariff on all Brazilian products - The US would impose a 35% tariff on Canadian goods from August 1, 2025, and a 50% tariff on imported copper from the same date [12] 3.2 Fed Policy - The Fed's internal differences were significant. At the June meeting, officials agreed to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5%. Some officials thought tariff policies would cause a one - time price increase, while most believed they might have a more lasting impact on inflation [13] - Goldman Sachs expected the Fed not to cut interest rates at the July meeting, but to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December 2025, and in March and June 2026 [13] 3.3 Supply Analysis - On July 5, eight OPEC+ member countries announced an increase in production of 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. OPEC+ had increased production for five consecutive months, with a cumulative recovery of 1.918 million barrels per day, and 282,000 barrels per day short of the 2.2 million barrels per day production recovery target. The market had basically priced in the OPEC+ production increase, and the impact of this round was relatively limited [14] 4. Data Analysis 4.1 Supply - As of July 11, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 566,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous week. Some refineries resumed production this week, and the weekly output had the potential to increase seasonally in the third quarter [16] - As of July 9, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 32.7%, up 1 percentage point from the previous statistical period. The operating rates in East China, Shandong, Northwest, and Southwest regions increased significantly. The increase was due to the repair of asphalt cracking spreads and a decrease in maintenance plans [26] 4.2 Demand - As of July 11, the weekly asphalt shipment volume was 453,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week. The weekly shipment volume was at a high level this year. The end of rainfall in the south drove demand recovery [29] - As of July 11, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic modified asphalt was 14.38%, up 0.34 percentage points from the previous week. Most regions saw an increase in capacity utilization, except for slight declines in East China, Shandong, and the Northwest [31] 4.3 Import and Export - In May, domestic asphalt imports were 397,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116,100 tons (41.3% increase), and a year - on - year decrease of 61,300 tons (13.37% decrease). The cumulative imports from January to April were 1.3492 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.03% [38] - In May, domestic asphalt exports were 55,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,300 tons. The cumulative exports from January to April were 249,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 59.62% [47] 4.4 Inventory - As of July 11, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 763,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,000 tons. The inventory in the Northeast region increased significantly. The increase in factory inventory was due to poor refinery shipments and reduced trader purchasing willingness [56] - As of July 11, the domestic asphalt social inventory was 1.312 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,000 tons. The inventory in North China, Shandong, and Southwest regions increased slightly. The decrease in social inventory was due to the recovery of terminal demand and poor inventory transfer [63] 4.5 Spread - As of July 11, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing and dilution was - 477.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38.5 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of July 9, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 53.05, and as of July 10, the asphalt basis was 108 yuan/ton. The decline in asphalt cracking spreads was due to the weakening of asphalt fundamentals this week [70] 5. Future Outlook - This week, the asphalt fundamentals weakened. The supply side saw an increase in production and operating rate, and the demand side had a slight increase in shipments. Refinery shipments were poor, leading to an increase in factory inventory, while social inventory decreased slightly. With the end of rainfall in the south, downstream demand recovered, but social inventory was still high - OPEC+ continued to increase production, with limited impact. Oil prices fluctuated strongly with the expectation of marginal improvement in demand. Crude oil lacked obvious drivers, and short - term WTI oil prices were expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. The asphalt supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and crude oil fluctuations would dominate the market - It was recommended to track geopolitical changes, pay attention to the matching degree between refinery production schedules and terminal project start - up progress, and focus on the range of 3,550 - 3,700 yuan/ton for the BU2509 contract [72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US imposing a 50% tariff on copper imports may lead to short - term adjustment risks for copper prices, and the US copper inventory may increase while non - US regions gradually become more relaxed. The end of the US restocking process is expected, and the previous non - US spot contradictions will gradually ease [10]. - Some Fed officials believe that there will likely be two interest rate cuts this year because the impact of tariffs on prices is more moderate than expected, which boosts market risk appetite [12]. - The tight supply at the mine end continues. The processing fees for copper concentrates remain at a low level, and supply disruptions in Peru support copper prices. Although the production of refined copper has increased slightly, demand is still weak, and inventory has accumulated [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The US plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting from August 1. The initial jobless claims in the US have declined for four consecutive weeks, reaching the lowest level in two months, but the continuing claims are still at the highest level since the end of 2021 [5]. - Some Fed officials believe that there will likely be two interest rate cuts this year, as the impact of tariffs on prices is more moderate than expected, which boosts market risk appetite. The non - US spot contradictions will gradually ease [5]. - As of July 4, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 43.43 dollars per dry ton, up 0.06 dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The processing fees for copper concentrates have been hovering at a low level, and supply disruptions in Peru support copper prices. The estimated output of electrolytic copper has decreased slightly, and demand is weak [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus Bullish Factors - Some dovish Fed officials have spoken out, boosting market risk appetite. The domestic social copper inventory accumulation is limited, and the copper concentrate processing fees remain at a low level [8]. Bearish Factors - The US imposing a 50% tariff on copper imports will be implemented on August 1. The short - term copper price has adjustment risks, and the previous non - US spot contradictions will gradually ease [9][10]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Supply - side Data** - China's copper ore and concentrate imports in May were 2.3952 million tons, a 17.55% month - on - month decrease and a 6.61% year - on - year increase. The supplies from Chile and Peru have both declined, and the supply tension is difficult to ease [13]. - As of July 4, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 43.43 dollars per dry ton, up 0.06 dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The processing fees for copper concentrates have been hovering at a low level, and supply disruptions in Peru support copper prices [17]. - In May, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1417 million tons, a 2.93% month - on - month increase and a 16.33% year - on - year increase. It is estimated that the output in the second quarter will reach 3.3913 million tons, a 16.13% increase from the second quarter of 2024 [19]. - China's scrap copper imports in May were 185,200 tons, a 9.55% month - on - month decrease and a 6.53% year - on - year decrease. The supplies from Thailand, Japan, and the US have all declined [22]. - **Demand - side Data** - As of July 10, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around - 1015 yuan per ton, which is beneficial for refined copper consumption [26]. - In June, the domestic refined copper rod output was 811,300 tons, a 3.51% month - on - month decrease and a 7.47% year - on - year increase. The output of recycled copper rods was 215,500 tons, a 7.11% month - on - month increase [30]. - In June, the domestic copper plate and strip output was 202,800 tons, a 3.47% month - on - month decrease, lower than the same period last year [34]. - In June, China's new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 26.4% and 26.7%. China's total automobile exports were 592,000, a 7.4% month - on - month increase and a 22.2% year - on - year increase [38]. - **Inventory and Price Difference Data** - LME copper inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, and the risk of a short squeeze has decreased. The copper inventory in SHFE and COMEX has increased, and the bonded - area copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong has also increased [42]. - On July 4, the spot premium of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper turned into a discount, and the LME 0 - 3 spot also changed from a large premium to a discount [46]. 3.4后市研判 - With the upcoming implementation of tariffs, the short - term adjustment risk continues. Attention should be paid to the support at the 77,000 integer level [49].

铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-7-11 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 | 告 | 摘 | 报 | 要 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Summary Market Focus - Israel and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement. - Russia stated its willingness to support further production increases. - US President Trump said that the US will hold talks with Iran next week. [7] Key Data - US EIA crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, for the week ending June 20 decreased by 464,000 barrels, compared to a decrease of 995,000 barrels in the previous week. - US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending June 20 decreased by 5.836 million barrels, with an expected decrease of 797,000 barrels and a previous decrease of 11.473 million barrels. - US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventories for the week ending June 20 were 237,000 barrels, compared to 230,000 barrels in the previous week. [7] Main View - This week, Israel and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement, causing the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil to decline rapidly. The conflict did not cause substantial losses to the crude oil supply, and oil prices basically returned to pre - conflict levels. - Looking ahead, as geopolitical tensions ease, the market focus shifts to the fundamentals of crude oil. There is an expectation of increased supply, but the actual increase is lower than the plan. The impact of further production increase on oil prices may be weaker than previous rounds. - On the demand side, with the arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, there is an expectation of marginal improvement in crude oil consumption. Considering the complexity and uncertainty of geopolitics, short - term geopolitical factors may still cause fluctuations. - Overall, after the decline of the geopolitical risk premium, short - term oil prices lack a clear driver. It is expected that WTI crude oil will fluctuate around $65 per barrel next week. [8] Trading Strategy - It is recommended to focus on the range of $62 - $67 per barrel for WTI crude oil prices. [9] Multi - Empty Focus Multi - Party Factors - Expectation of demand improvement - Uncertainty of geopolitics [12] Empty - Party Factors - Expectation of OPEC+ production increase - Uncertainty of tariff policies [12] Macro Analysis Ceasefire Agreement and US - Iran Talks - Israel and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement on June 24. - Trump said that the US will hold talks with Iran next week and may sign an agreement, also hinting at possible relaxation of sanctions on Iranian oil. - At the beginning of the conflict, concerns about supply disruptions pushed up oil prices, but the actual impact on supply was limited. The current ceasefire agreement is fragile, and attention should be paid to the US - Iran talks. [13] Tariff Policy Uncertainty - The EU is preparing more tariff counter - measures. - The prospects of Japan - US tariff negotiations are unclear. - With the "tariff deadline" on July 9 approaching, tariff policies still have great uncertainty. [16] Fed Rate - Cut Expectations - Fed officials have hinted at a possible rate cut in July. - There are significant differences within the Fed on how to balance inflation and economic growth. - Powell said that tariffs will affect the economy, and the market's expectation of a rate cut has increased. The probability of a July rate cut has risen to 40%, and the expected total rate - cut amplitude for the remaining four meetings this year has increased from 45 basis points to 60 basis points. [19] OPEC and IEA Reports - OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth expectations for 2025 and 2026 and economic growth forecasts. - IEA expected sufficient oil supply in 2025, lowered demand growth expectations, and raised supply growth expectations. Overall, there is an expectation of oil supply surplus. [20] Data Analysis Supply - OPEC's crude oil production decreased by 66,000 barrels per day in April 2025 compared to the previous month. Production declines were mainly from Iran, Nigeria, and Venezuela. With the implementation of the production increase plan, OPEC production is expected to gradually recover. [21] - US domestic crude oil production increased slightly by 400 barrels to 13.435 million barrels per day in the week ending June 20. However, due to the decline in oil prices and profit pressure, the increase in shale oil production may be limited. [23] - The total number of US oil rigs was 438 in the week ending June 20, a decrease of 1 from the previous period. The decline rate has slowed down, and it is expected to stabilize with the recovery of oil prices. [25] Demand - US crude oil production - derived demand decreased by 361,000 barrels per day in the week ending June 20, while gasoline demand increased by 350,000 barrels per day. - The US refinery utilization rate increased to 94.7% in the week ending June 20, and it is expected to remain stable. - The refinery utilization rate of 16 European countries increased to 80.32% in May, and it is expected to continue to rise steadily. - As of June 26, the operating rate of domestic main refineries in China increased to 80.74%, and that of local independent refineries was 57.24%. Main refineries are expected to continue to increase their operating rates, while local refineries may reduce their operating rates due to profit considerations. - As of June 27, the comprehensive refining profit of domestic main refineries was 1,344.45 yuan per ton, and that of local independent refineries was 376.96 yuan per ton. High profits will stimulate the operating rate of main refineries. [31][32][34][40][45] Inventory - US EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 5.836 million barrels in the week ending June 20, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories increased. It is expected that inventories will continue to decline. - US EIA crude oil inventories in Cushing decreased by 464,000 barrels in the week ending June 20, and gasoline inventories decreased by 2.07 million barrels as of June 6. [49][53] Crack Spread - As of June 25, the US crude oil crack spread was $20.04 per barrel, showing a slight decline but ending the previous downward trend, indicating an improvement in gasoline consumption. [54] 后市研判 - This week, after the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil declined rapidly. Oil prices basically returned to pre - conflict levels. - Looking ahead, with the easing of geopolitical tensions, the market focus shifts to fundamentals. Supply is expected to increase, but the actual increase is lower than the plan. Demand is expected to improve marginally with the arrival of the peak season. - Short - term geopolitical factors may still cause fluctuations, and short - term oil prices may have two - way fluctuations in a single day. Overall, short - term oil prices lack a clear driver, and it is expected that WTI crude oil will fluctuate around $65 per barrel next week. [57]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the double - coking futures broke through the previous oscillation range and drove the entire black - series to run strongly. The external geopolitical conflict cooled down, and the central bank and other six departments issued policies to boost the stock market. The National Development and Reform Commission will allocate the third batch of consumer goods replacement funds in July, improving the domestic macro - sentiment. There is an expected game around the Politburo meeting in July [6]. - In the spot market, the trading sentiment recovered this week. Under the pattern of decreasing supply, increasing demand, and inventory reduction of coking coal, the price got a short - term rebound drive. However, due to the expected accumulation of steel inventory, the demand for furnace materials is affected, and there is pressure on the upside of the rebound. The pressure around 860 should be noted. After the fourth round of price cut of coke was implemented, and the coking coal price was supported at a low level, the average loss per ton of coke for coking enterprises increased. As the coking coal price runs strongly, the support for coke on the downside becomes stronger, and the game between steel and coke intensifies, with the expectation of further price cuts postponed [6]. - The coking coal supply is shrinking, and the overall inventory has decreased significantly on a weekly basis. Coking enterprises replenished raw materials, and coke inventory continued to decline. Steel mills replenished coking coal and reduced coke inventory. The overall coke production remained stable, and the molten iron production changed little, supporting the coke demand. The fourth - round price cut of coke was implemented, and the expectation of further price cuts was postponed [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - As of June 24, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.11%, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 percentage points. The non - housing project capital availability rate was 61.02%, up 0.05 percentage points week - on - week, and the housing project capital availability rate was 49.59%, up 0.08 percentage points week - on - week [5]. - On the 26th, safety inspections in the Guxian area of Linfen became stricter. There were no new coal mine shutdowns except for 2 mines that had shut down due to belt replacement. Affected by safety inspections, some coal mines and coal washing plants suspended transportation. The effective operating coal mines in Guxian had a total capacity of 690 million tons, with a daily raw coal output of only 13,700 tons [7]. - Recently, the purchasing sentiment in the Luliang coking coal market has improved, and the prices of some coking coal types have increased. The new orders of some coal mines in Lishi were about 100,000 tons, and there was a phenomenon of vehicles waiting for coal. Except for lean coal, the offline prices of high - sulfur main coking coal also increased, and the auction success rate improved [7]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: Coking coal supply has shrunk, downstream has replenished inventory in the short term, and domestic policies encourage consumption [10]. - Bearish factors: Steel has entered the seasonal off - season, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation [10]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Coking coal supply contraction**: The opening rate of 523 sample mines was 82.48%, a decrease of 2.01% from last week, and the daily average clean coal output was 738,200 tons, a decrease of 530,000 tons from last week. The opening rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 59.1%, a decrease of 2.24% from last week, and the daily output was 501,450 tons, a decrease of 840,000 tons from last week. The customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased, and both imports and domestic production declined significantly [12]. - **Significant weekly reduction of coking coal inventory**: As of the week of June 27, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 4.6309 billion tons, a reduction of 360,600 tons from last week; the clean coal inventory of 110 sample coal washing plants was 2.3187 billion tons, a reduction of 55,200 tons from last week; the port inventory was 2.8559 billion tons, a reduction of 177,200 tons from last week [14]. - **Coking enterprises replenish raw materials and coke inventory continues to decline**: As of June 27, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 8.0898 billion tons, an increase of 131,900 tons. The available days of inventory were 9.43 days, an increase of 0.18 days from the previous period. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 1.1303 billion tons, a reduction of 25,500 tons [17]. - **Steel mills replenish coking coal and reduce coke inventory**: As of June 27, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 7.8121 billion tons, an increase of 65,500 tons. The available days of inventory were 12.39 days, an increase of 0.1 days from the previous period. The coke inventory was 6.2775 billion tons, a reduction of 64,500 tons from the previous period, and the available days were 11.22 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from the previous period [21]. - **Stable overall coke production**: As of June 27, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 73.35%, a decrease of 0.22% from the previous period, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 645,100 tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 87.46%, an increase of 0.07% from the previous period, and the daily coke output was 474,300 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons [25]. - **Little change in molten iron production, supporting coke demand**: As of the week of June 27, China's coke consumption was 1.0903 billion tons, an increase of 50,000 tons. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4229 billion tons, an increase of 110,000 tons. The blast furnace opening rate was 83.82%, the same as last week [26]. - **The fourth - round price cut of coke was implemented, and the expectation of further price cuts was postponed**: As of the week of June 27, the average loss per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 46 yuan/ton, a significant increase from last week. With the coking coal price running strongly, the support for coke on the downside becomes stronger, and the game between steel and coke intensifies [28]. - **Double - coking far - month basis structure**: The futures market has stabilized and rebounded first, and the spot trading has been active and stabilized [30]. 3.4后市研判 - Recently, the external geopolitical conflict cooled down, and domestic policies improved the macro - sentiment. The spot market trading sentiment recovered this week. Coking coal has a short - term rebound drive, but there is pressure on the upside due to the expected steel inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the pressure around 860 [32]. - As the coking coal price runs strongly, the support for coke on the downside becomes stronger, and the game between steel and coke intensifies. The expectation of further price cuts is postponed. In the short term, the coke futures will fluctuate with the cost - side coking coal [35].