1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current crude oil market features "strong reality, weak expectation", with short - term support factors and long - term suppression logic coexisting. In the short term, factors such as the peak consumption season, improved macro - environment, and OPEC+ actual production increase lower than planned support oil prices. In the long term, OPEC+ is expected to fully release the 2.2 million barrels per day production increase by the end of the fourth quarter, while seasonal demand will weaken, leading to a long - term structural surplus. The proposed US sanctions on Russia may cause short - term supply concerns and oil price rebounds, but the actual supply reduction may be limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure of WTI crude oil prices at $70 - 72 per barrel, and consider short positions if sanctions are lower than market expectations [53]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In July, oil prices first fluctuated widely and then rose. The "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern of crude oil, the expected peak consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere, and the decline in EIA crude oil inventories supported oil prices. Although OPEC+ planned to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, the market had already priced it in, and the actual increase was much smaller. The threat of US sanctions on Russia also supported oil price rebounds. However, in the fourth quarter, the shift from peak to off - peak consumption and OPEC+ production increases may lead to supply surpluses and limit oil price increases [5]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 Trade Agreements - The short - term trade tension has been alleviated as the US reached trade agreements with China, the EU, and Japan. However, the long - term impact on the global economy is still uncertain. The US also imposed new tariffs on South Korea, India, and Brazil [6]. 3.2.2 Fed's Interest Rate Decision - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, in line with market expectations. There were two dissenting votes advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut. Powell's speech was hawkish, and the probability of a September rate cut dropped from about 65% to below 50% [10]. 3.2.3 Geopolitical Tensions - Trump threatened to impose sanctions on Russia if it fails to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine by August 8. The US also imposed large - scale sanctions on Iran. These events raised concerns about supply disruptions and supported oil prices [11]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 OPEC+ Production - OPEC+ increased production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. It is expected to continue increasing production in September to reach the 2.2 million barrels per day production recovery target. However, Kazakhstan's failure to cut production as promised may lead to concerns about an internal price war within OPEC+ [14][15]. 3.3.2 Forecasts from Different Institutions - In July, IEA raised the global crude oil supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 16,000 barrels per day. EIA and OPEC maintained their previous forecasts [17]. 3.3.3 Supply from Different Regions - OPEC's crude oil production increased by 221,000 barrels per day in June, mainly due to Saudi Arabia's production increase. Non - OPEC production increased by 129,000 barrels per day, mainly from Kazakhstan and Russia. US crude oil production decreased by 120,000 barrels per day in the week ending July 25, and the number of oil rigs also decreased [19][21][24]. 3.3.4 Demand from Different Regions - China's apparent crude oil consumption increased by 3% in June. However, China's manufacturing PMI decreased in July. In the US, refinery utilization rates increased, but the manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range, and the Chicago PMI continued to decline [32][38][39]. 3.3.5 Inventory - US EIA crude oil inventories increased by 7.74 million barrels in the week ending July 25. Although the seasonal peak may drive inventory reduction, the reduction space is limited [48].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Coking Coal and Coke Monthly Report [2] - Report Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Report Author: Wang Nan [2] - Company: AVIC Futures [2] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 3: Report Core Viewpoints - In July, the double - coking futures continued the upward trend from June, but the price volatility in the last two weeks increased significantly. Policy and market factors affected supply and demand expectations, and price fluctuations were large. In August, due to factors such as position - shifting and policy expectations, the prices quickly declined [7]. - Currently, the coking coal inventory pressure has gradually eased, and the price has upward elasticity, but short - term sentiment decline may correct the over - increase. The coking coal supply increment and price support after the sentiment decline should be focused on [33]. - With the rapid increase in coking enterprise production costs, the frequency of price increases has accelerated. The fifth price increase has not been implemented due to market sentiment cooling. The short - term market is expected to oscillate at a high level to digest the previous increase, and attention should be paid to the impact of the parade on supply contraction [36]. Group 4: Summary by Report Sections 1. Market Review - In July, the coking coal 09 contract rose 26.73%, and the coke 09 contract rose 14.03%. Policy factors such as the "anti - involution" policy and the "Yaxia" project affected supply and demand expectations, leading to price increases. The exchange's position - limit and the Politburo meeting cooled the market sentiment, and in August, the price quickly declined due to position - shifting [7]. 2. Data Analysis - **Supply of Coking Coal**: As of the week of August 1, the operating rate of 110 sample coal - washing plants was 61.51%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.11%, and the daily output of clean coal was 52.135 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.05 tons. The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.31%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.08%, and the daily output of clean coal was 77.67 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.54 tons. The supply of coking coal has recovered, but the resumption of production is limited. The customs clearance at the Ganqimao Port has decreased compared with the same period last year, but it rebounded at the end of July [10]. - **Import of Coking Coal**: In June 2025, China's coking coal imports were 9.1084 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.05%. Mongolia and Russia accounted for 77.23% of the imports. Australian coal effectively supplemented the shortage of US coal. The imports of Mongolia, Russia, and Canada are expected to increase slightly [11]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: As of the week of August 1, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 2.4826 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 602,100 tons; the clean coal inventory of sample coal - washing plants was 1.6638 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33,200 tons; the port coking coal inventory was 2.8211 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 278,900 tons. The inventory has been significantly reduced, and the inventory pressure has been alleviated [16]. - **Coking Coal Replenishment**: As of August 1, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 9.9273 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 987,800 tons, and the inventory available days were 11.52 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.63 days; the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8.0379 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 795,000 tons, and the inventory available days were 12.87 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.3 days. Independent coking enterprises had a high enthusiasm for replenishment, while the replenishment of steel mills was relatively moderate [19]. - **Coke Production**: As of the week of August 1, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 73.69%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.51%, and the daily output of metallurgical coke was 64,810 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3180 tons; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 86.62%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.31%, and the daily output of coke was 46,970 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110 tons. The capacity utilization rate and output were relatively stable [21]. - **Iron Water Production and Coke Demand**: As of the week of August 1, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 65.37%, a year - on - year increase of 58.88%; the daily iron water output was 2.4071 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,900 tons; the weekly coke consumption was 1.0832 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18,400 tons. High iron water production supported coke demand [24]. - **Coke Export**: In the first half of 2025, the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 350,590.4 tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of 1.3583 million tons. India's import restrictions and price competition from Indonesian coke affected China's coke export, and the export was mainly for domestic demand [25]. - **Coke Inventory**: As of the week of August 1, the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 736,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 173,000 tons but a significant decrease of 284,800 tons compared with the beginning of July; the coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 6.2669 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 835,300 tons; the port coke inventory was 2.151 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 168,900 tons. The inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased significantly [28]. - **Coke Price Increase**: As of the week of August 1, the average loss per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 45 yuan. In July, four price increases were implemented, but the fifth one was postponed due to market sentiment cooling. The price increase frequency accelerated, and the game between steel and coking enterprises intensified [29]. 3. Future Market Outlook - The demand for steel is in the seasonal off - season, and the improvement in the real - world is limited. Policy factors and position - shifting have affected the market. The coking coal inventory pressure has eased, and the price has upward elasticity, but short - term sentiment decline may correct the over - increase [33]. - The coking enterprises' price increase frequency has accelerated, and the fifth price increase has not been implemented. The short - term market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the impact of the parade on supply contraction should be focused on [36].

铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 中航期货 2025-7-25 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 | 数 关 | 业 幅 临 重 政 资 量 存 较 月 过 观 指 口 | | | | | | | | | | | | | ， 及 | | | | | 整 。 | 基 本 面 国 内 电 解 铝 运 行 产 能 变 化 不 大 产 量 ， ， 季 氛 围 的 阴 影 之 中 不 同 板 块 之 间 存 在 分 化 ， 。 2 4 日 中 国 主 要 市 场 电 解 铝 库 存 为 4 9. 4 7 月 万 ， 主 要 观 点 平 仍 处 于 相 对 较 低 水 平 对 铝 价 仍 有 支 撑 临 ， 。 " "反 内 卷 预 期 过 高 短 时 间 价 格 涨 幅 过 大 ， ， 游 消 费 仍 有 抑 制 基 本 面 供 需 叠 加 对 下 双 弱 ， ， 口 支 撑 关 注 中 美 谈 判 结 果 以 及 美 联 储 议 息 会 ， 沪 铝 铝 价 或 ...

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Report Summary - The National Energy Administration issued a notice to conduct a production check on coal mines in 8 provinces including Shanxi and Inner Mongolia to ensure stable coal supply, as some coal mines have been over - producing this year [5]. - This week, the main coking coal contract had multiple consecutive limit - up boards, leading the domestic assets to rise strongly. The "Yaxia" project stimulates demand growth expectations, and the notice on coal production check strengthens supply reduction expectations. Coking coal has entered a rebound channel of price increase and inventory reduction, and it is advisable to buy on dips due to high position concentration [6]. - Recently, the coke futures market has been weaker than coking coal, mainly dragged down by the steel futures market. The profit of steel mills will affect the future price increase expectations of coke [6]. Market Focus Positive Factors - Downstream enterprises are replenishing inventory, and coking coal inventory has decreased significantly [10]. - The "Yaxia" hydropower project will bring incremental infrastructure demand [7][10]. - The over - production check notice is expected to reduce coal supply [10]. - "Anti - involution" related laws are being introduced [7][10]. - During the peak electricity consumption period, the prices of related coal types have risen simultaneously [10]. - High pig iron production supports demand [10]. Negative Factors - Steel has entered the seasonal off - season, and terminal demand is limited [10]. - After the reopening of Mongolian ports, the import volume of Mongolian coal is gradually increasing [10]. Data Analysis Coking Coal Production - The domestic production growth of coking coal has slowed down, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased. This week, the starting rate of 523 sample mines was 86.9%, up 0.83% from last week, with a daily average clean coal output of 77.73 tons, an increase of 0.69 tons. The starting rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 62.31%, down 0.54% from last week, with a daily output of 52.145 tons, a decrease of 1.23 tons. As of July 19, the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port was 625,455 tons [11][14]. Coking Coal Inventory - As of the week of July 25, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 2.7844 million tons, a decrease of 606,300 tons; the clean coal inventory of 110 sample coal washing plants was 1.7561 million tons, a decrease of 159,300 tons; the port inventory was 2.9234 million tons, a decrease of 291,600 tons [15]. Coke Production and Inventory - As of July 25, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 73.45%, up 0.44% from the previous period, with a daily average metallurgical coke output of 646,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 86.97%, up 0.13% from the previous period, with a daily coke output of 471,600 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons [24]. - As of July 25, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 9.8538 million tons, an increase of 562,700 tons, and the inventory available days were 11.47 days, an increase of 0.59 days. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 801,200 tons, a decrease of 74,300 tons [18]. - As of July 25, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 7.9951 million tons, an increase of 84,100 tons, and the inventory available days were 12.75 days, an increase of 0.12 days. The coke inventory was 6.3998 million tons, an increase of 9,900 tons, and the available days were 11.45 days, a decrease of 0.01 days [22]. Coke Demand - As of the week of July 25, China's coke consumption was 1.09 million tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4223 million tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons, and the blast furnace starting rate was 83.46%, the same as last week [26]. Coke Price Increase - As of the week of July 25, the average loss per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 54 yuan/ton, widening compared to last week. After the second - round price increase on the 23rd, the third - round price increase started quickly on the 24th, and some downstream steel mills have accepted the increase. The mainstream steel mills tendered on the 25th, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on July 25 [28]. Basis Structure of Coking Coal and Coke - The spot and futures prices of coking coal and coke have risen in resonance [30]. Future Outlook Coking Coal - Mid - and downstream enterprises are increasing their procurement of raw coal. The prices of some key coking coal types in the producing areas have exceeded expectations. The tradable resources in the port spot market have slightly decreased, and the inquiry and trading volume have improved. The price of imported Mongolian coal has reached new highs, and the acceptance of high - price coal by downstream enterprises remains to be seen. Coking coal has strong internal momentum, and the previous bearish logic has ended. It is advisable to buy on dips [33]. Coke - The rapid increase in coking coal prices has led to a sharp increase in the production cost of coking enterprises, and the frequency of coke price increases has accelerated. After the third - round price increase was implemented today, there is an expectation of a fourth - round increase next week. The coke futures market is weaker than coking coal in the short term, dragged down by the steel market [36].

橡胶周度报告 汪楠 从业资格号：F3069002 投资咨询号：Z0017123 | 报告摘要 PART 01 | 1. | 国家发改委、市场监管总局就价格法修正草案公开征求意见。修正草案完善低价倾销的认定标准，规范市场价格秩序， | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 治理"内卷式"竞争；完善价格串通、哄抬价格、价格歧视等不正当价格行为认定标准。 | | 2. | | 全球天然橡胶主产区降雨量周环比减少；未来两周天然橡胶东南亚产区整体降雨量较上一周期增加，对割胶工作影响 | | | | 增强。 | | 市场焦点 | 3. | 泰国与柬埔寨(7月24日)在两国边境地区发生交火，双方都指责是对方先行开火。 | | 4. | | 日美关税谈判达成协议。美方对日本实施的"对等关税"税率将从25%下调至15%。 | | 5. | | 欧盟与美国正朝着达成协议的方向迈进，该协议将对大多数产品设定15%的关税税率。欧盟成员国可能准备接受15%的 | | | | 关税，且欧盟官员正推动将这一税率涵盖汽车等行业。欧盟将继续准备一项可能高达930亿欧元、最高税率30%的报复 | | | | 性关税方案，以防在8月 ...

Report Summary - The report is an asphalt weekly report released by AVIC Futures on July 25, 2025 [2] - The current asphalt fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand. The weekly production and operating rate on the supply side decreased, while the shipment volume on the demand side increased slightly. The decline in factory inventory was lower than the decrease in production, indicating poor sales for refineries, and the social inventory increased slightly, suggesting weak downstream demand [6] - Crude oil currently lacks a core driving factor. Seasonal peak - season consumption demand and improved macro - risk sentiment provide some upward momentum, but OPEC+ continuous production increase suppresses the oil price rebound expectation. It is expected that the oil price will continue to fluctuate widely in a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern. The asphalt supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and crude oil fluctuations will dominate the market trend [6] - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the range of 3550 - 3700 yuan/ton for the BU2509 contract [7] Multi - empty Focus - The multi - factors for asphalt are marginal improvement in supply - demand and low inventory, while the empty factors are lower - than - expected demand and high supply [10] Macro Analysis Trade Agreements - China and the US will hold a new round of economic and trade talks from July 27 - 30 in Sweden [11] - The US and Japan reached a trade agreement on July 23, including issues such as a 15% tariff and supply - chain cooperation [11] - The EU voted to impose counter - tariffs on $93 billion worth of US products on July 24. The EU plans to merge two retaliatory tariff lists into one [11] - US President Trump said on July 23 that the US will impose simple tariffs of 15% - 50% on most other countries [11] Oil Market Forecasts - OPEC maintains the 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.29 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.28 million barrels per day. It also maintains economic growth forecasts for this year and next year. In June, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 220,000 barrels per day to 27.235 million barrels per day [12] - IEA lowers the 2025 average oil demand growth forecast from 720,000 barrels per day to 704,000 barrels per day and the 2026 forecast from 740,000 to 722,000 barrels per day. It raises the 2025 global oil supply growth forecast from 1.8 million to 2.1 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast from 1.1 million to 1.3 million barrels per day [12] - The OPEC monthly report is relatively neutral, while the IEA report is relatively pessimistic, maintaining the expectation of crude oil supply surplus [12] Data Analysis Supply - In June, OPEC's crude oil production was 27.237 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 221,000 barrels per day, mainly contributed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. However, it is still lower than the production increase plan [13] - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt weekly production was 516,000 tons, a decrease of 56,000 tons from the previous week. The increase in refinery maintenance plans led to a slight decline in production, but there is potential for a seasonal rebound in the third quarter [15] - As of July 23, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 28.8%, a decrease of 4 percentage points from the previous statistical period. The decline was more obvious in South China and Shandong. The reasons include refineries adjusting production plans and seasonal demand disturbances [24] Demand - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt weekly shipment volume was 415,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous week. The shipment volume has increased slightly for three consecutive weeks but is still lower than that at the beginning of June, indicating a phased weakening of demand due to southern rainfall [25] - As of July 25, the domestic modified asphalt weekly capacity utilization rate was 14.46%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was flat in most regions this week [28] Import and Export - In June, domestic asphalt imports were 375,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons (5.51%) and a year - on - year increase of 32.56%. The cumulative imports from January - June were 1.725 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11.53% [35] - In June, domestic asphalt exports were 29,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,600 tons. The cumulative exports from January - June were 279,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 53.36% [38] Inventory - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise factory inventory was 723,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38,000 tons. The decline in factory inventory was lower than the decrease in production, indicating poor sales for refineries [48] - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt social inventory was 1.352 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,000 tons. The increase was due to the impact of typhoons and rainfall in the southern region on demand [55] Spread - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt processing dilution weekly profit was - 514.2 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.9 yuan/ton. As of July 23, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 54.94, and as of July 24, the asphalt basis was 133 yuan/ton. The asphalt cracking spread declined this week due to the phased weakening of asphalt fundamentals [60]

Report Summary - Market focus includes Trump's "major statement" on Russia, OPEC maintaining 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast, and IEA raising 2025 global crude oil supply growth forecast while lowering demand growth forecast [7][8] - Key data shows US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels in the week ending July 11, strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 213,000 barrels [8] - The main view is that crude oil prices oscillated weakly this week due to the disappointment of sanctions expectations and the geopolitical premium retreat. Looking ahead, factors are mixed, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern [8][52] - The trading strategy is to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $65 - $69 per barrel [9] Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors are demand improvement expectations and geopolitical uncertainties; bearish factors are OPEC+ production increase expectations and tariff policy uncertainties [12] Macro Analysis - US tariff negotiations progress slowly and are uncertain. Trump is close to a deal with India, no progress with Japan, and there are large differences with the EU [13] - The issue of firing Powell continues, which may lead to the selling of the US dollar and Treasury bonds. The Fed's "Beige Book" is pessimistic about the economy, indicating that the Fed may remain "on hold" [14] - OPEC maintains supply and demand growth forecasts, while IEA raises supply forecast and lowers demand forecast, with OPEC's June production increasing by 220,000 barrels per day [15] Data Analysis Supply - OPEC's June crude oil production was 27.237 million barrels per day, an increase of 221,000 barrels per day month - on - month, but still below the production increase plan [16][17] - US crude oil production decreased by 10,000 barrels per day to 13.375 million barrels per day in the week ending July 11, and is expected to remain low [18] - The number of US oil drilling rigs decreased by 1 to 424 in the week ending July 11, and is expected to stay low [20] Demand - US crude oil consumption demand increased by 1.917 million barrels per day week - on - week, while gasoline demand decreased by 835,000 barrels per day week - on - week [26] - US refinery utilization rate was 93.9% in the week ending July 11, supporting crude oil consumption, but with limited growth space in the long term [27] - China's major refinery utilization rate was 81.21% as of July 17, down 0.26 percentage points, and independent refinery utilization rate was 58.54%, up 0.52 percentage points [33] - China's major refinery profits decreased due to rising crude oil costs and high - inventory of refined oil products, while independent refinery profits were flat [38] Inventory - US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels in the week ending July 11, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels [43] - Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 213,000 barrels, and gasoline inventory increased by 3.399 million barrels in the week ending July 11 [48] Crack Spread - US crude oil crack spread was $20.7 per barrel as of July 16, rebounding slightly week - on - week, indicating the recovery of refined oil consumption [49] Future Outlook - Crude oil prices are expected to continue the oscillating and slightly upward trend in the "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern due to mixed factors [52]

Report Summary - China's automobile production and sales in June reached 2.794 million and 2.904 million vehicles respectively, with year-on-year increases of 11.4% and 13.8%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 1.268 million and 1.329 million vehicles, up 26.4% and 26.7% year-on-year [5]. - The rainfall in the world's major natural rubber producing areas increased week-on-week. In the next two weeks, the overall rainfall in the Southeast Asian rubber-producing areas will increase compared to the previous period, affecting rubber tapping [5]. - Foreign institutions collectively raised their GDP growth forecasts for China in 2025. Morgan Stanley raised its forecast from 4.5% to 4.8%, Goldman Sachs from 4.6% to 4.7%, and UBS from 4% to 4.7% [5]. - From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 571,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 7% and a month-on-month decrease of 5%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 11.473 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 11%. The retail sales of the new energy passenger car market were 332,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 26% and a month-on-month decrease of 4%. The penetration rate of the new energy market was 58.1%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 5.801 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 33% [5]. - The price of natural rubber raw materials is running strongly. The inventory in Qingdao area has increased slightly. The price of butadiene, the raw material for butadiene rubber, has risen slightly. The inventory of butadiene rubber factories has decreased slightly. The operating rate of tire enterprises has increased [5]. - This week, the rubber futures market showed a unilateral upward trend. The "anti - involution" theme led by "polysilicon" continued to strengthen, driving the bullish sentiment in the commodity market. The development of new energy vehicles is gradually replacing the market share of traditional fuel vehicles, and the demand for tires remains resilient. The price of glue at home and abroad has increased this week. Affected by rainy weather, rubber tapping is difficult, and the raw material price is strong, providing cost support for rubber. The inventory in Qingdao Bonded Area has changed from decreasing to increasing, and the general trade inventory continues to accumulate. The downstream tire market mainly consumes inventory, and the terminal demand is limited. The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises has increased but has not reached the level of the same period last year, and the room for improvement is limited. In general, in the short term, the rubber futures market mainly fluctuates with external macro - emotions, the internal fundamental contradictions are not obvious, and it operates strongly in a range [5]. Multi - empty Focus Bullish Factors - The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has rebounded [8]. - Weather disturbances have strengthened the cost support of natural rubber raw materials [8]. - The sentiment of "anti - involution" varieties continues [8]. Bearish Factors - The inventory is at a relatively high level [8]. Data Analysis - As of July 17, the price of fresh glue in Thailand was 54.5 Thai baht/kg, the cup lump price was 48.55 Thai baht/kg, the glue price in Yunnan, China was 13,600 yuan/ton, and the glue price in Hainan was 13,000 yuan/ton. Affected by rainy weather, rubber tapping is difficult, and the raw material price is strong, providing cost support for rubber [9]. - As of the week of July 11, the spot inventory in Qingdao Bonded Area was 78,978 tons, an increase of 201 tons; the general trade spot inventory was 557,405 tons, an increase of 3,805 tons. The inventory in Qingdao Bonded Area has changed from decreasing to increasing, and the general trade inventory continues to accumulate, with the overall inventory rising slightly [11]. - This week, the domestic butadiene market showed a strong shock, and the weekly average price increased slightly month - on - month. The downstream industry has good operating conditions, and the supply side has no obvious pressure. As of July 17, the delivery price in the central Shandong region was about 9,400 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was 9,150 - 9,200 yuan/ton. As of the week of July 18, 2025, the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 349.5714 yuan/ton, and the strong raw material price affected the profits of production enterprises [13]. - As of the week of July 18, the in - factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 15,650 tons, a decrease of 850 tons from last week, and the trader inventory was 6,600 tons, an increase of 330 tons from last week. Recently, the downstream inventory has been replenished, and the in - factory inventory has decreased [15]. - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires was 61.98%, an increase of 0.87% from last week and an increase of 3.92% from the same period last year. The in - factory inventory available days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.85 days, an increase of 0.18 days from last week and a decrease of 5 days from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires was 68.13%, an increase of 2.34% from last week and a decrease of 11.96% from the same period last year. The in - factory inventory available days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.18 days, an increase of 0.42 days from last week and an increase of 11.33 days from the same period last year. The market mainly consumes inventory, and the terminal demand is limited. The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises has increased but has not reached the level of the same period last year, and the room for improvement is limited [17]. - As of July 17, the spread of the September "RU - NR" contract was strongly oscillating, and the spread of the September "NR - BR" contract was oscillating within a range [20]. Market Outlook - This week, the "anti - involution" theme led by "polysilicon" continued to strengthen, driving the bullish sentiment in the commodity market. - Fundamentally, the price of glue at home and abroad has increased this week. Affected by rainy weather, rubber tapping is difficult, and the raw material price is strong, providing cost support for rubber. The inventory in Qingdao Bonded Area has changed from decreasing to increasing, and the general trade inventory continues to accumulate. The downstream tire market mainly consumes inventory, and the terminal demand is limited. The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises has increased but has not reached the level of the same period last year, and the room for improvement is limited. - In general, in the short term, the rubber futures market mainly fluctuates with external macro - emotions, the internal fundamental contradictions are not obvious, and it operates strongly in a range [24].