投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-06-25 地缘冲突缓和，⿊⾊偏弱震荡 伊以局势缓和，受此影响双焦再度转弱。除此之外⿊⾊板块处于真空 期，能交易的其他驱动⾮常有限。产业⽅⾯热卷需求回暖，螺纹季节 性下⾏。供应端铁⽔⾼位回升，整体供需均环⽐⾛强，库存暂⽆压 ⼒。不过市场对后市需求预期依然偏悲观，整体⽽⾔，盘⾯仍处于震 荡盘整阶段。 1、铁元素方面，海外矿山开始财年末和季末冲量，发运量有季节性 增加预期，7月上旬之前发运或将维持高位，但同比增量有限；需求 端钢企盈利率和铁水回升，预计短期可以维持高位。本周到港季节性 回升，港口小幅累库。短期海外矿山季末冲发运，矿石库存有阶段性 小幅累库预期，但预计幅度有限，整体供需矛盾不突出。近期重点关 注需求端钢企盈利状况和检修计划。 2、碳元素方面，近期主产区环保及安全检查趋严，煤矿间歇式停产 现象较多，焦煤产量持续下滑，但整体供应的收缩幅度相对有限； 进口方面，贸易商拉运积极性偏弱，口岸通关延续低位。需求端， 焦炭产量高位回落，焦企在去库及亏损压力下、开工存在进一步下降 预期。库存端，焦煤刚需有所下滑、下游原料补库需 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 化工品价格大幅回落后，成交量和持仓量均有下滑，市场在等待进一 步的方向抉择。在原油拉升时，化工品涨幅低于原油，原油回落时，化工 的跌幅亦小于原油，这也是化工估值回归的一种方式。原油的顶部可能已 经出现，化工也是如此，随着时间慢慢进入7月，化工的本身的基本面将 逐步主导市场，高基差品种将有补贴水的动力。 原油：地缘风险加剧，油价波动放大 LPG：地缘风险仍存，成本端支撑PG盘面 沥青：地缘降温，沥青地缘溢价回落 高硫燃油：等待地缘降温，燃油期价震荡 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价跟随原油震荡 甲醇：伊以缓和，甲醇回落 尿素：海外供应缓解，国内供强需弱格局难改，尿素短期或弱势震荡 乙二醇：价格回落后买气尚可，EG未来到港量较少 PX：伊以停火，PX跟随原油下跌 PTA：伊以停火原油大跌，PTA跟随下跌 短纤：原料跌幅较大，短纤加工费被动扩张 瓶片：加工费持续低位，瓶片后期将有减产 PP：原料端大幅回落，PP跟随下行 塑料：地缘溢价衰减，塑料大幅回落 苯乙烯：地缘阶段性降温，苯乙烯下跌 PVC：出口询单好转，PVC震荡运行 烧碱：低估值弱供需，烧碱偏弱运行 展望：跌去地缘溢价 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - All three key new energy metals (industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate) are rated as "oscillating" [4][5][7] 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side of new energy metals has seen rumors of disruptions, leading to a weak rebound in prices. In the short - to - medium term, prices are trending weakly, but as they fall to important cost areas, a weak rebound occurs. For the long - term, low prices may accelerate the production capacity clearance of domestically self - priced varieties [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Market Views - **Industrial Silicon** - **Current Situation**: As of June 24, the price decline of industrial silicon has slowed. The domestic inventory has increased, with production in May up 2.3% month - on - month but down 24.6% year - on - year. Exports in May decreased by 8.0% month - on - month and 22.5% year - on - year. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in May increased significantly [4] - **Logic**: On the supply side, northern large - scale plants are resuming production, and southwestern regions are entering the wet season with new capacity. On the demand side, downstream demand is still weak, especially from polysilicon enterprises [4] - **Outlook**: Supply continues to rise while demand remains weak, so the silicon price will be under pressure and show an oscillating trend [4] - **Polysilicon** - **Current Situation**: The average transaction price of N - type re - feedstock has decreased by 6.27% month - on - month. The number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. Exports in May increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and imports decreased [4][5] - **Logic**: After the end of the photovoltaic installation rush, silicon wafer production scheduling has weakened in the short term, and the spot price has declined, causing the futures price to fall. Supply is currently at a low level, and demand may weaken in the future [5] - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand situation is improving, but there is a risk of weakening demand in the second half of the year, so the price will show a wide - range oscillation [5] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Current Situation**: On June 24, the closing price of the main contract increased by 2.67%, and the total position decreased. The spot price and the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [6] - **Logic**: The market supply - demand lacks a driving force. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and social inventory is accumulating while warehouse receipts are decreasing. The ore price is testing the cost support [7] - **Outlook**: Demand is flat, supply is high but inventory is decreasing, so the price will oscillate in the short term [7] II. Market Monitoring - The report mentions market monitoring for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, but no specific content is provided [8][14][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes various agricultural products, including fats and oils, protein meals, corn/starch, hogs, rubber, synthetic rubber, pulp, cotton, sugar, and logs, and provides short - to medium - term outlooks for each product [1][4][5]. - Overall, most products are expected to show a trend of either fluctuating or fluctuating weakly, with fats and oils likely to continue weakening due to the resonance of macro and industrial factors [1]. 3. Summary Grouped by Related Catalogs 3.1 Quotes and Views - **Fats and Oils**: Due to the ease of the Middle - East situation, the sharp decline in crude oil prices, and favorable weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas, US soybeans fell on Monday, and China's three major fats and oils generally weakened. In the short term, fats and oils may continue to weaken [1][2][4]. - **Protein Meals**: Internationally, the inspection volume of US soybean exports was lower than expected, but the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was also lower than expected. Domestically, the supply and demand of soybean meal both increased, while the supply and demand of rapeseed meal were both weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [5]. - **Corn/Starch**: The price of corn in different regions showed different trends. In the short term, long - position holders took profits, leading to a large decline in the market. In the medium term, based on the expected production - demand gap, the driving force is still upward, but the potential negative impact of import auctions should be noted [6][7]. - **Hogs**: In the short term, the proportion of large - hog slaughter increased, and the average slaughter weight continued to decline. In the medium term, the number of slaughtered hogs is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, the current production capacity is still at a high level. The pig price is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: After the external shock ended, the trading focus may return to the fundamentals. The supply has an expected increase, while the demand has an expected decrease. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate weakly [10][11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market followed the sharp decline in crude oil. The external situation may be temporarily controllable, but the market correction may not be over yet [12]. - **Cotton**: New cotton is expected to increase in production in 25/26. The demand side has entered the off - season. The cotton price pulled up at the end of the session, filling the gap. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate within the range of 13,000 - 13,800 yuan/ton [13]. - **Sugar**: The external market is weak, while the domestic market is strong. In the long term, the sugar price has a downward driving force due to the expected supply surplus in the new crushing season. In the short term, the downward space is limited [14]. - **Pulp**: After a sharp rise and then a sharp fall, the supply - demand weakness is the core. The futures price is expected to fluctuate [14][15]. - **Logs**: As the delivery approaches, the fluctuation intensifies. The short - term fundamentals are in a weak balance, and the bottom of the market has support [16][17]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report mentions that there are variety data monitoring sections for fats and oils, corn/starch, hogs, cotton/yarn, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data details are provided [19][50][69][109][122][137][156].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas geopolitical risks may intensify short - term market volatility and disrupt risk preferences. In the long run, the weak - dollar pattern continues. One should be vigilant about volatility jumps, pay attention to non - dollar assets, and maintain a strategic allocation of resource products such as gold. Domestic economic stability is maintained, and domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. The logic of policy - driven growth will be strengthened in the second half of the year [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In June, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50% for the fourth consecutive time, with a more cautious view on the second - half rate - cut expectation. In May, the US retail sales month - on - month rate dropped significantly from 0.1% to - 0.9%, the industrial output month - on - month rate fell by 0.2%, and the June New York Fed manufacturing index was - 16. The US economic fundamentals face geopolitical risks and uncertainties in economic and trade prospects, and rising oil prices may prompt the Fed to issue hawkish signals [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced multiple financial support policies, strengthening policy expectations for the second half of the year. As of now, 162 billion yuan of "national subsidy" funds have been allocated to local governments, and the remaining funds will be disbursed in an orderly manner. In May, fixed - asset investment continued to expand, manufacturing investment grew rapidly, service industry growth accelerated, and the decline in the year - on - year prices of commercial residential buildings in cities of all tiers continued to narrow. The added value of industrial enterprises above the national scale increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. The service production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 reached 4.1326 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4% [6]. - **Asset Views**: The domestic economy maintains a stable pattern, and domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market volatility, while the long - term weak - dollar pattern persists. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Macro**: Overseas stagflation trading cools down, and the long - and short - term allocation ideas diverge. Domestically, there may be moderate reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts, and the fiscal policy will implement established measures in the short term. Overseas, the inflation - expectation structure flattens, economic growth expectations improve, and stagflation trading cools down [7]. - **Finance**: The bullish sentiment for stocks and bonds has declined. Stock index futures are experiencing the release of crowded funds, stock index options need to wait for a decline in volatility, and the bullish sentiment in the bond market has weakened. All are expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Precious Metals**: With the improvement of risk appetite, precious metals are undergoing short - term adjustments. The short - term adjustment of gold and silver will continue due to better - than - expected Sino - US negotiations [7]. - **Shipping**: The sentiment has declined, and attention should be paid to the recovery of the loading rate in June. The market for container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate, with a focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Due to the escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict, coal and coke drive the black - building materials market to strengthen. Most products such as steel, iron ore, coke, and others are expected to fluctuate, while soda ash is expected to decline slightly [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Amid the coexistence of low inventory and weak demand expectations, non - ferrous metals will continue to fluctuate. Some products like zinc and nickel are expected to decline slightly [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The US may intervene in the Israel - Iran conflict, and crude oil will maintain high volatility. Most energy - chemical products are expected to fluctuate, with some products like crude oil, asphalt, and others expected to decline slightly, while some like ethylene glycol and short - fiber are expected to rise slightly [9]. - **Agriculture**: After substantial progress in Sino - US negotiations, the sentiment is positive for the cotton - price rebound. Most agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, with some products like oils and fats expected to decline slightly [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On June 23, 2025, equity index futures rose, CGB futures fell, and commodity futures showed balanced rises and falls, with EC down nearly 5% [2][4][11][13] - The top three gainers were logs, woodpulp, and LSFO, while the top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe), poly-silicon, and rapeseed [11][12][13] - Coking coal is expected to fluctuate in the short term, iron ore is expected to maintain a volatile operation, and the spot market of SCFIS(Europe) may be at the top range [16][25][30] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On June 23, equity index futures rose, CGB futures fell, and commodity futures had balanced rises and falls, with EC down nearly 5% [11][13] - The top three gainers were logs (up 1.9% with a 0.8% MoM decrease in open interest), woodpulp (up 1.7% with a 9.0% MoM decrease in open interest), and LSFO (up 1.3% with a 17.6% MoM decrease in open interest) [11][13] - The top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (down 4.7% with a 2.4% MoM increase in open interest), poly-silicon (down 3.3% with a 38.4% MoM increase in open interest), and rapeseed (down 2.9% with a 7.1% MoM decrease in open interest) [12][13] 1.2 Daily Rise 1.2.1 Coking Coal - On June 23, coking coal increased by 1.3% to 807 yuan/ton. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [16][18] - Supply continued to slightly decrease due to non - resumed and newly shut - down coal mines. Import volume remained low, and the price difference between Australian and domestic coal was still inverted [17][18] - Demand slightly decreased, but downstream and intermediate links' purchases relieved upstream inventory pressure [17][18] 1.2.2 Iron Ore - On June 23, iron ore increased by 0.5% to 706 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a volatile operation [23][25] - Short - term demand remained high and stable, while supply increased seasonally. The overall supply - demand contradiction was not prominent [23][25] - Overseas mines continued to rush for year - end and quarter - end targets, with shipments expected to be high before early July but with limited YoY growth [24][25] 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 SCFIS(Europe) - On June 23, SCFIS(Europe) decreased by 4.7% to 1875 points. The spot market may be at the top range [28][30] - The US intervention in the Iran - Israel conflict may cause sentiment risks, but the impact on the Europe route of container shipping is limited [29][30] - The US route is still declining, and the Europe route faces a game between weak reality and supply - chain disruption risks [29][30] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Premier Li Qiang will attend the 16th Summer Davos Forum from June 24th to 25th [3][33] - Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit China from August 31st to September 3rd [33] 2.2 Industry News - The CSRC approved the registration of pure benzene futures and options on the DCE, which will enhance the risk - resistance capacity of China's chemical industry chain [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for each commodity: - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating [9] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [10] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [11] - **Hogs**: Oscillating, with a long - term downward trend [12] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [15] - **Cotton**: Oscillating weakly in the short - term [16] - **Sugar**: Oscillating weakly in the long - term, with a short - term rebound [18] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [19] - **Logs**: Oscillating weakly [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural commodities, including their current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and future outlooks. Overall, most commodities are expected to show oscillating trends, with some facing supply pressures and others influenced by seasonal factors and policy changes. For example, hogs are expected to face increasing supply pressure in the second half of the year, while oils and fats may return to range - bound trading [12][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: SPPOMA data shows that from June 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2.5% month - on - month, and from June 1 - 15, it decreased by 4% month - on - month. Shipping agencies expect Malaysian palm oil exports from June 1 - 20 to increase by 10% - 17% month - on - month [9]. - **Logic**: Due to profit - taking and favorable weather in the US soybean growing areas, US soybeans and soybean oil fell last Friday. Domestically, oils and fats trended weakly. The EPA proposal's bullish sentiment may have been released, and there are still uncertainties. US soybean planting is progressing well, and domestic soybean imports are large, with rising soybean oil inventories. Malaysian palm oil production growth in June is limited, and the export outlook is optimistic. Domestic rapeseed oil inventories are high but slowly declining [9]. - **Outlook**: The bullish impact of the EPA's biodiesel proposal may have been priced in. Given the good growth of US soybeans, normal weather, and the palm oil production season, oils and fats are likely to return to range - bound trading, with increased downward pressure recently [9]. Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On June 23, 2025, the average import soybean crushing profit in China was 76.65 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 24.87 yuan/ton or 24.5%, and a year - on - year increase of 155.24 yuan/ton or 288.98% [10]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the Rosario Grain Exchange raised Argentina's soybean production forecast by 3 million tons. The bullish sentiment from crude oil and the EPA has been released. US soybean planting and emergence are going well, with normal to slightly above - normal precipitation expected in the next two weeks. Freight costs are rising, and South American soybean premiums are increasing. Domestically, trading sentiment has declined, and the basis in East China has weakened. Soybean arrivals will increase in the next two months, and soybean meal inventories are seasonally rising, but there is no immediate pressure. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly, but there may be a supply shortage in the fourth quarter [10]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to trade in a range due to bullish factors and lower - than - expected good - quality rates. Domestically, soybean meal supply and demand are both increasing, and the price is expected to have a short - term correction. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or fix prices at low levels [10]. Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The domestic average corn price is 2422 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton [11]. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are stable with a slight increase. In North China, some deep - processing enterprises lowered their purchase prices due to increased arrivals, while other regions were stable to strong. Wheat harvesting is over, and traders are selling more corn. Corn feed inventories are decreasing, indicating weak replenishment demand. South Port inventories are temporarily increasing due to weather but are expected to decline. Imported grains are tightening, and inventory reduction is expected in the 24/25 season [11]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the expected supply - demand gap, the price is expected to oscillate, but attention should be paid to the potential negative impact of import auctions [11]. Hogs - **Industry Information**: On June 23, the price of Henan's externally - bred hogs was 14.72 yuan/kg, a 1.1% increase from the previous day. The closing price of the active hog futures contract was 13980 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase [12]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the proportion of large hogs for sale is increasing, and the average weight is decreasing. In the medium term, based on the increase in new - born piglets from January to May 2025, the number of hogs for sale is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, the production capacity remains high, and the inventory of breeding sows is increasing. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising is close to the break - even point. Demand is weak due to high temperatures, and hog weights are decreasing. In June, hog farmers started to reduce inventory, but there is resistance to low prices, and the selling rhythm is inconsistent. In the third quarter, there are expectations for peak consumption seasons. In the long term, the hog price is in a downward cycle [12]. - **Outlook**: As hog farmers reduce inventory and it is the off - season for consumption, the supply - demand balance is loose. If inventory reduction is sufficient, the supply pressure may ease, but the number of hogs for sale is expected to increase in the second half of the year [12]. Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: On June 23, the price of RMB - denominated Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 13820 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan. The price of domestic whole - milk old rubber was 13950 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [13]. - **Logic**: Rubber prices oscillated within a range of about 200 yuan. Although the overall commodity market corrected, rubber prices were supported by raw materials. Most Asian rubber - producing areas are in the rainy season, and raw material prices have rebounded slightly. Supply is limited due to rain and the early stage of tapping. Some tire enterprises' production has recovered, and inventory pressure has eased slightly, but the demand outlook is still weak [13]. - **Outlook**: External events are currently the main factor affecting the market, and the duration is uncertain. Rubber prices may maintain a strong - side oscillation due to the low non - standard basis [13]. Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The spot price of butadiene rubber from two major suppliers in Shandong was 11750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan [15]. - **Logic**: With the decline in oil prices and butadiene prices, the market trended weakly. The market is mainly influenced by crude oil and the chemical sector. The overall operating rate has dropped to the lowest level since May, but inventories have increased slightly, indicating weak downstream demand. Butadiene prices oscillated in a small range last week, with a slight increase in the average weekly price. Domestic production has increased slightly, and port inventories have risen, but downstream buying is cautious [15]. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical conflicts may last at least one week, and the market may be affected. Although the fundamental downward trend remains, the market may oscillate strongly in the short term [15]. Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of June 23, the number of registered cotton warehouse receipts in the 24/25 season was 10493. The closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 09 was 13465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [16]. - **Logic**: In the 25/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to increase, and other major producing countries such as India and Brazil also have production growth expectations. The US cotton production depends on the third - quarter weather. The downstream market has entered the off - season, with increasing textile inventories and slower production. Cotton commercial inventories have decreased faster than in previous years, and there are concerns about tight inventories at the end of the season, supporting the basis. However, the upward momentum is weak due to weak demand and new - crop production expectations [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, cotton prices are expected to oscillate between 13000 - 13800 yuan/ton. There may be opportunities for reverse spreads [16]. Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of June 23, the closing price of Zhengzhou Sugar 09 was 5721 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton [18]. - **Logic**: The sugar market fundamentals have not changed much. The external market has priced in the expected oversupply in the new season, and the prices of domestic and foreign futures have declined. The Brazilian real has strengthened against the US dollar, and strong crude oil prices support the sugar price. Domestically, the 24/25 sugar production season has ended, and the sales rate is high, with lower inventories than last year. However, there are expectations of concentrated sugar imports. Internationally, Brazil, India, and Thailand are expected to increase production in the new season [18]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, due to the expected oversupply in the new season, sugar prices are expected to decline. In the short term, there may be a rebound [18]. Pulp - **Industry Information**: According to Longzhong Information, the previous trading day, the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5300 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; the price of Marubeni was 5700 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; and the price of Arauco was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged [19]. - **Logic**: Pulp futures prices rose significantly yesterday, especially for far - month contracts, mainly due to the suspension of new warehouse receipts for bleached needle - leaf pulp. However, the spot market followed the increase only slightly. Fundamentally, pulp imports remain high, and prices are still falling. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream paper enterprises' inventories are increasing, with weak procurement demand. The US dollar price is decreasing, and the current price is not attractive for large - scale inventory building. Although the reduction in deliverable varieties may support the futures price, the supply - demand situation is still loose [19]. - **Outlook**: Due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and the impact of changes in deliverable rules, pulp futures are expected to oscillate. The reasonable valuation range for the 09 contract is 5200 - 5500 yuan/ton [19]. Logs - **Industry Information**: The spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu is 760 yuan/cubic meter, and in Shandong, it is 750 yuan/cubic meter [20]. - **Logic**: The log futures market has provided risk - free arbitrage opportunities, leading to increased purchases by arbitrageurs and stronger reluctance to sell among traders, driving up spot prices. The market is currently focused on the delivery logic. Near - month contracts are stable due to delivery support, while far - month contracts are returning to fundamentals. The trading volume of the 2507 contract is increasing, and the ratio of virtual to real positions is high, leading to increased volatility [20]. - **Outlook**: The supply pressure of logs is expected to ease at the end of June or early July. The demand is in the off - season from June to August. Although the spot price is supported by the clearance of old stocks, the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [20].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-06-24 地缘政治驱动油价⾛向，化⼯格局偏震 荡 美国总统周一表态，希望维持低油价，并要求美国能源生产商在美军 袭击伊朗后压低油价，原油价格因此回落。同时美国表示彻底摧毁了伊朗 的核基础设施，这一点可能也达到了美国的目的。与此同时，以色列战机 继续对伊朗的导弹系统、空军基地及福尔多核设施发动空袭。船舶跟踪数 据显示，周日有44艘油轮霍尔木兹海峡，这符合本月初以来的正常水平。 地缘政治动向决定油价波动，当前格局仍有不确定性。 板块逻辑： 油品和油化工相对于原油的估值已经出现了连续三周的压缩，假设原 油不会快速趋势走弱，化工品的格局相对原油将略略偏强，诸多品种的利 润在原油的上涨中大幅压缩，短期继续加工化工相当于在做空油价。另一 方面化工品的下游及终端对当前的高价格仍难以跟随，化工自身的上行空 间也有限。未来很可能是油价小幅调整，化工延续震荡的格局。 原油：地缘担忧缓解，油价重回弱势 LPG：地缘风险仍存，成本端支撑PG盘面 沥青：等待地缘降温，沥青期价震荡 高硫燃油：等待地缘降温，燃油期价震荡 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价跟随 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The Fed maintains the federal funds rate and the expectation of rate cuts in the second half of the year but is more cautious. The US economic fundamentals are still disturbed by geopolitical risks and uncertainties in economic and trade prospects. The surge in oil prices may prompt the Fed to send hawkish signals [7]. - Domestic macro: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announces multiple financial support policies, strengthening policy expectations in the second half of the year. In May, fixed - asset investment continued to expand, and the service industry grew faster. The decline in housing prices continued to narrow. Industrial and service production, as well as consumer spending, all showed positive growth [7]. - Asset views: The domestic economy maintains a weak and stable pattern, with mainly structural opportunities for domestic assets. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, but the long - term weak dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Price and Fluctuation - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 1000 futures had the highest daily increase of 1.10%, while the CSI 500 futures, SSE 50 futures, and CSI 300 futures also rose by 0.67%, 0.66%, and 0.63% respectively [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 30 - year Treasury bond futures decreased by 0.02%, the 2 - year Treasury bond futures decreased by 0.01%, while the 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond futures remained unchanged [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index remained unchanged, the euro against the US dollar had no change in pips, the US dollar against the Japanese yen remained unchanged, and the central parity rate of the US dollar increased by 15 pips [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate remained unchanged, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.3 bp, and the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield remained unchanged [3]. - **Hot Industries**: The comprehensive finance industry had the highest daily increase of 5.03%, followed by the comprehensive, computer, and national defense and military industries [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil rose by 1.27%, while ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 3.76%. COMEX gold decreased by 0.06%, and COMEX silver decreased by 2.20% [3]. 3.2 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The Fed maintains the federal funds rate, and the US economic data shows mixed performance. The economic fundamentals are still affected by geopolitical and trade uncertainties [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Lujiazui Financial Forum promotes policy expectations. In May, fixed - asset investment, industrial production, service industry, and consumer spending all showed positive trends [7]. 3.3 Viewpoint Highlights - **Macro**: Overseas stagflation trading cools down, and the long - and short - term allocation ideas diverge. Domestically, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and fiscal policies will be implemented [8]. - **Finance**: The bullish sentiment in stocks and bonds has declined. Stock index futures, stock index options, and Treasury bond futures are all expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: With the recovery of risk appetite, precious metals are undergoing short - term adjustments and are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Shipping**: The sentiment has declined. The container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate, focusing on the game between peak - season expectations and price increases [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: In the off - season, the molten iron output has increased, and the market continues to fluctuate narrowly. Products such as steel, iron ore, coke, and others are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The coexistence of low - inventory reality and weak demand expectations leads to continued fluctuations in non - ferrous metals. Zinc and nickel are expected to decline, while others are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The US may intervene in the Israel - Iran conflict, and crude oil maintains high volatility. Different energy and chemical products have different trends, with some expected to rise, some to fall, and some to fluctuate [10]. - **Agriculture**: The Sino - US negotiation has made substantial progress, which is beneficial for the cotton price rebound. Different agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to factors such as harvest, planting, and production - demand data [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation". Specific varieties are rated as follows: steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate; soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly; and ferromanganese is expected to oscillate [6][8][9][10][14][15][17][18]. Core View of the Report - Affected by the news that Iran may block the Strait of Hormuz, the black building materials sector was strong on Monday. The main reason is that the black sector is in a vacuum period with limited trading drivers. The overall supply and demand of the industry have strengthened month - on - month, with no pressure on inventory, but the market's outlook for future demand remains pessimistic, and the market is in an oscillatory consolidation stage [1][2]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines are expected to increase shipments seasonally at the end of the fiscal year and quarter. Shipments may remain high until early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production are expected to remain high in the short term. This week, arrivals have increased seasonally, and port inventories have slightly increased. There is an expectation of a small - scale increase in ore inventories, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Focus on the profitability and maintenance plans of steel enterprises [2]. Carbon Element - Recently, environmental and safety inspections in major production areas have become stricter, resulting in a continuous decline in coking coal production, but the overall supply contraction is limited. In terms of imports, the enthusiasm of traders for hauling is weak, and port clearance remains at a low level. On the demand side, coke production has declined from its high level, and there is an expectation of a further decline in coke enterprises' operations. In terms of inventory, the rigid demand for coking coal has declined, and the overall amount of downstream raw material replenishment demand is limited. The upstream inventory of coking coal remains at a high level in recent years, and the structural inventory problem has not improved significantly. Coking coal prices lack a driving force for a trending increase [3]. Alloys - **Ferromanganese**: The manganese ore market has stabilized, with a shortage of circulating resources for some ore types. Traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, increasing the difficulty of downstream procurement bargaining. Some factories have plans to resume production, and a new production capacity is expected to be put into operation in Inner Mongolia in the second half of the month, so ferromanganese production may continue to increase. As the terminal steel demand enters the off - season, the supply and demand of ferromanganese tend to be loose, and the market sentiment for manganese ore has improved. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Ferrosilicon manufacturers' profits are poor, and the overall supply level remains low. Manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices. Affected by the high - school entrance examination, college entrance examination, and rainy season, the downstream construction progress is average, and the terminal steel demand is about to enter the off - season. The downstream has a strong willingness to actively reduce inventory, and the market sentiment remains cautious. The demand in the magnesium metal market is weak, and prices lack the impetus to rise [3]. Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass is declining, the deep - processing demand has continued to weaken month - on - month, and the upstream inventory has accumulated, with off - season pressure still existing, although the sales in Shahe have slightly improved. On the supply side, a 1000 - ton production line has started producing glass, a 700 - ton production line has been cold - repaired, and four more production lines are waiting to produce glass, so the supply pressure remains. The actual demand in the off - season faces certain pressure, the market price is at a premium to the Hubei spot price, and there are many emotional disturbances. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed. As maintenance gradually resumes, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center will continue to decline in the long term [6]. Specific Varieties - **Steel**: This week, the overall supply and demand have strengthened month - on - month, but inventory is still being reduced. The main factor suppressing the market price is the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand. It is expected that steel prices will oscillate in the short term [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore remains stable at a high level, and the supply is increasing seasonally. The overall contradiction is not obvious, and it is expected that the price will oscillate [8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, and the price of finished products is under pressure. Electric furnaces are operating at a loss during off - peak hours. It is expected that the price of scrap steel will oscillate in the future [9]. - **Coke**: After the fourth round of price cuts, the market's expectation of price stability has increased, but there are still differences in views on the future. The coke enterprises' inventory needs to be digested, and the demand support is insufficient. There is downward pressure on coke prices in the medium term [10][11][13]. - **Coking Coal**: The market supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the high upstream inventory restricts the price increase. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly and stably [14]. - **Silicon Manganese**: There is an expectation of increased production, and the terminal steel demand is entering the off - season, so the supply and demand tend to be loose. However, due to cost - price inversion, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and manufacturers are reluctant to lower prices. There is an expectation of increased production from some manufacturers, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow. It is expected that the market will oscillate in the short term [18].