Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6]. Report's Core View - Yesterday, the news of coal mine production restrictions fermented again, driving up the futures prices. The fundamentals of the black industry have not changed significantly, and the inventory pressure at each link is not high. Before the important event, the production restriction time is approaching, and steel prices have strong support. Coal and coke supplies have not fully recovered, and inventories are being depleted, making prices susceptible to positive news. There may also be continuous influence from macro - positive news. Before the spot pressure appears, prices have room for further rebound. The futures prices have high volatility, and capital behavior dominates the market. It is recommended to wait and avoid risks, and focus on policy implementation and terminal demand [1][2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased as expected. The profitability rate of steel enterprises increased again, but steel production in some areas decreased due to rainfall, though it remained high year - on - year. Due to low arrivals and high demand, iron ore inventories at 45 ports, in port congestion, and at factories decreased. After the macro - sentiment cooled, iron ore prices dropped slightly, and it is expected to oscillate in the future [2]. Carbon Element - The overall supply is temporarily stable. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week exceeded 1,200 vehicles, reaching a high for the year, and imports remained high. Coke production is stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Affected by the recent decline in futures prices, the wait - and - see sentiment of downstream and traders increased, and the spot market sentiment cooled. However, upstream coal mines still have many pre - sold orders and are reducing inventories. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine复产, and Mongolian coal imports [2]. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Coke prices have been continuously increasing, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. The manganese ore market has more wait - and - see sentiment, but traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and port ore prices remain firm. Steel mills have good profits, and the output of finished steel remains high, so the downstream demand for manganese silicon is still resilient. However, as manufacturers' profitability improves, the复产 process continues, and the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser. Currently, the contradictions in the spot fundamentals are limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The output of silicon iron is expected to increase rapidly. The downstream steel - making demand is still resilient, and the current supply - demand relationship is healthy. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, following the performance of the sector [3]. Glass - In the off - season, glass demand declined, deep - processing orders decreased month - on - month, and the inventory days of original glass increased month - on - month, indicating speculative purchases by downstream. After the futures prices dropped, the spot market sentiment cooled, middle - stream sales increased, and upstream production and sales declined significantly. On the supply side, two production lines are yet to produce glass, and one line has been cold - repaired, with the overall daily melting expected to remain stable. Upstream inventories have decreased slightly, and there are no prominent contradictions, but market sentiment fluctuates a lot. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled, but it may recur. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term both in futures and spot [3][6]. Soda Ash - The oversupply situation of soda ash has not changed. After this round of negative feedback was triggered, prices dropped rapidly in the short term and are at a discount to the spot. It is expected to oscillate in the future. In the long run, the price center will decline, promoting capacity reduction [6]. Specific Products - **Steel**: The "anti - involution" sentiment in the steel and coal industries remains high. Driven by cost, the futures prices are firm. Spot steel sales are average. Last week, some steel mills had short - term maintenance and iron - water transfer, resulting in a decrease in rebar production and an increase in hot - rolled coil production. In the off - season, affected by typhoons, the apparent demand for rebar decreased, and inventories increased slightly; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased, and inventories continued to accumulate. The supply - demand of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products fluctuated little, and the inventory of the five major steel products increased. Currently, steel inventories are low, and there are continuous production - restriction news before the parade. The fundamentals may improve, and with strong cost support, the futures prices are likely to rise. Attention should be paid to steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Port trading volume increased. From a fundamental perspective, overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, but the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly after the typhoon. The small - sample steel enterprise's iron - water production decreased slightly, and the daily consumption of imported sinter increased, remaining high year - on - year. The possibility of short - term production reduction due to profit reasons is small. Iron ore inventories at 45 ports increased compared to last week. The demand for iron ore is high, and there is an expectation of inventory depletion. The fundamental negative driving factors are limited, and prices are expected to oscillate [8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The average price of crushed scrap in East China increased slightly. The output of rebar decreased slightly, inventories increased, and the apparent demand decreased, in line with off - season characteristics. In terms of supply, the market sentiment is optimistic this week, and the arrival volume of scrap steel has been decreasing. In terms of demand, the daily consumption of electric furnaces was high in some areas due to high profits in the early stage. Although the iron - water production of blast furnaces decreased, the price difference between iron and scrap narrowed, increasing the cost - effectiveness of scrap steel, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production increased significantly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long and short - process production increased significantly. This week, the arrival volume increased significantly, and factory inventories increased slightly, with the available inventory days remaining slightly below normal. The supply and demand of scrap steel are both strong, and the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Prices are expected to follow the finished steel [9]. - **Coke**: Futures prices followed coking coal and oscillated strongly. On the spot side, the price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port increased. After the fifth round of price increases was fully implemented, the profitability of coke enterprises improved, and production started to pick up, with coke production remaining stable. Downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively producing, and the iron - water production remains high. Upstream coke enterprises have smooth sales, and inventories are continuously decreasing. Middle - stream futures and spot traders are gradually releasing supplies, and the arrival of coke at downstream steel mills has improved. Currently, the supply - demand structure of coke is still tight, and prices still have short - term support. The fundamentals of coke are healthy. In the short term, with high iron - water production, its own driving force is weak, and prices are expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [10][11]. - **Coking Coal**: On the futures side, due to continuous news of over - production inspections at coal mines, the supply recovery is slow, and market sentiment has been boosted, with prices trending strongly. On the spot side, prices remained stable. On the supply side, the output of some coal mines is limited due to underground factors, and some coal mines have reduced their production in the second half of the year due to over - production inspections. The overall supply is slowly recovering. On the import side, the import of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port remains above 1,000 vehicles. On the demand side, coke production is stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. After the previous round of concentrated purchases, downstream enterprises are now purchasing on - demand. Upstream coal mines still have many pre - sold orders and are reducing inventories. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine复产, and Mongolian coal imports. Affected by over - production inspections, the supply recovery of coking coal is expected to be slow. With poor supply expectations, market sentiment has improved, and prices are expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall in the short term [11]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Driven by the strong coking coal futures prices, the central price of manganese silicon futures increased yesterday. On the spot side, manufacturers are more willing to hold prices, and spot prices have been continuously adjusted upwards. On the cost side, coke prices have been continuously increasing, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. The futures prices of manganese silicon are rising, and the overseas quotes are increasing, making manganese ore quotes firmer. In terms of supply and demand, steel mills have good profits, and the output of finished steel remains high. Hebei Iron and Steel's procurement volume in August increased compared to last month. However, as the industry's profitability improves, the manufacturers'复产 process continues, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policy related to specific production - restriction requirements. Currently, the market fundamentals have limited contradictions, and in the short term, manganese silicon prices are expected to follow the sector. However, in the long - term, the difficulty of market inventory depletion will increase, and the upside potential of prices is not optimistic [14]. - **Silicon Iron**: Yesterday, the coking coal futures prices continued to be strong, and the market's expectation of the "anti - involution" policy increased, driving up the silicon iron futures prices. On the spot side, the prices of semi - coke and settlement electricity prices have increased significantly, and with the strong futures prices, spot prices have also increased. On the supply side, as the industry's profitability improves, manufacturers' enthusiasm for复产 increases, and the output of silicon iron is expected to increase rapidly. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policy related to specific production - restriction requirements. On the demand side, steel output remains at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand is still resilient. Hebei Iron and Steel's procurement volume in August increased compared to last month. In the magnesium market, due to tight supplies, magnesium manufacturers are reluctant to lower prices, but the market trading atmosphere has cooled, and the game between upstream and downstream continues. Currently, the supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is healthy, and in the short term, prices are expected to follow the sector. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand gap may be filled, and the upside potential of prices should be viewed with caution. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [15].

中信期货有限公司 在途库存大幅走低 ──Kpler原油库存数据报告 CITIC Futures Company Limited 2025-08-04 研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 6月以来全球陆上原油库存相对维稳，但7月18日至8月4日期间陆地与海上库存大幅走低，主要因在途船货减少，关注后期回溯调整情况。分 区域来看，近一周中国、印度库存走低,欧洲、俄罗斯、中东库存回升。 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 2025 2022 - 2021 - 2023 千桶 250000 3700000 200000 3600000 150000 3500000 100000 3400000 3300000 50000 第1周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 图表 3: 全球原油浮仓 2024 - 2023 2022 - - 2021 ~~/ 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 第5周 第1周 图表 2: ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term contradiction in the coking coal fundamentals is not prominent. With the influence of multiple positive news, market sentiment has recovered. The market trading will gradually return to the fundamental logic. Currently, coking coal supply has not fully recovered, and the short - term fundamentals still support prices. Attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine resumption, and Mongolian coal imports [3] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Today, both coking coal and coke closed higher. The main coking coal contract hit the daily limit during the session, and JM2601 closed at 1,182.0 yuan/ton [1] Policy and Production Impact - The revised "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" will be implemented on February 1, 2026, with more refined and standardized safety regulations, currently having no significant impact on actual coal mine production. The National Energy Administration is verifying coal mine over - production. Coal enterprises in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have received relevant notices. The over - production verification in Changzhi coal mines started last week, with little impact on local production for now, and the subsequent impact remains to be seen [2] Fundamental Situation - Supply: Main producing area coal mines generally maintain the previous production rhythm, and overall supply is slowly recovering. Import: The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week exceeded 1,200 vehicles, reaching a high for the year, and Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level. Demand: Coke production is temporarily stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Affected by the recent decline in the futures market, downstream and traders are more wait - and - see, and the spot market sentiment has cooled down. However, coal mines had many pre - sold orders before, and upstream coal mines are still destocking. It will take time for the increase in domestic supply and Mongolian coal imports to be reflected, and the upstream coal mine destocking cycle continues [2]

Group 1: Report Core View - The US dollar index strengthened to the upper edge of 100 during the week but quickly depreciated below 99 after the release of non - farm payroll data on Friday. The subsequent outlook suggests a further decline in the US dollar index, and the view of a downward trend in the US dollar is maintained for the year [2]. - The reasons for the mid - week strengthening of the US dollar include the agreement between the US and major trading partners, the closing of crowded short - dollar positions before events, and better - than - expected US Q2 GDP and ADP employment data as well as a hawkish Fed in July [2]. - The weak non - farm payroll data on Friday reversed the logic of the strengthening US dollar. The 3 - month average non - farm payrolls have been slowing since February 2025, and only 35,000 jobs were added as of July [2]. - The logic supporting the downward trend of the US dollar this year includes the slowdown of the US economy and further Fed rate cuts, the recovery of other economies and rising investment returns, and the room for the increase of foreign exchange hedging ratio [2]. Group 2: Other Observations - The spread between US and German yields oscillated downward while the US dollar index generally trended upward [4]. - The US Citigroup economic surprise index declined [5]. - The CFTC net position shows that the net short position of the US dollar has decreased [10]. - The euro swap basis indicates that the cross - border liquidity pressure of the US dollar is limited [12]. - Based on the 30 - 10Y US Treasury yield spread and 10Y swap spread, concerns about US Treasury deficits are not the main contradiction affecting the US dollar [14][17]. - The US dollar index rebounded above the 9 - day moving average, and the RSI indicator is approaching overbought [19]. - The gold - to - copper ratio declined and then rose again on August 1st. Crude oil prices climbed and then fell, and copper prices declined [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - The consecutive upward adjustment of the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar reveals three signals: the central bank guides exchange - rate appreciation expectations through policies, reflecting an adjustment from "stabilizing the exchange rate" to "stabilizing expectations"; it responds to the "anti - involution" policy, as a moderate appreciation of the RMB helps reduce import costs, enhance domestic purchasing power and consumption levels; and it revises up the expected yield of RMB assets and guides enterprises to improve foreign exchange settlement behavior [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalog a. Exchange - rate Data - On August 5, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar announced by the China Foreign Exchange Trade System was 7.1366, appreciating 29 basis points compared with the previous trading day's central parity rate of 7.1395. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar has appreciated for two consecutive trading days, reaching the highest appreciation level since November 6, 2024 [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Small Variety Steel Weekly Data [2] - Report Date: August 4, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Dian, Tao Cunhui, Xue Yuan, Ran Yumeng, Zhong Hong [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core View - The report presents the weekly data of small variety steels in 2025, including actual production, apparent demand, steel enterprise inventory, social inventory, and total inventory for different types of steel products such as I-beams, H-beams, color-coated coils, galvanized coils, etc. It also shows the steel billet inventory and sample small variety steel inventory, along with their week-on-week changes [2]. Group 4: Summary by Steel Product Type I-beams (I-beams, Channels, Angles) - Actual Production: 36.76 tons on August 1, 2025, up 2.71 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Apparent Demand: 33.4 tons on August 1, 2025, down 6.59 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Steel Enterprise Inventory: 86.65 tons on August 1, 2025, up 4 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Social Inventory: 58.1 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.59 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Total Inventory: 144.8 tons on August 1, 2025, up 3.41 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] H-beams - Actual Production: 22.97 tons on August 1, 2025, down 1.96 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Apparent Demand: 26 tons on August 1, 2025, down 3.17 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Steel Enterprise Inventory: 17.4 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.8 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Social Inventory: 65.53 tons on August 1, 2025, down 2.25 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Total Inventory: 82.9 tons on August 1, 2025, down 3.05 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] Color-coated Coils - Actual Production: 15.94 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.7 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Apparent Demand: 16.4 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.53 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Steel Enterprise Inventory: 15.43 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.14 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Social Inventory: 25.75 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.27 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Total Inventory: 41.18 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.41 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] Galvanized Coils - Actual Production: 90.55 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.49 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Apparent Demand: 91.4 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.92 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Steel Enterprise Inventory: 44.71 tons on August 1, 2025, down 1.05 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Social Inventory: 108.04 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.16 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Total Inventory: 152.75 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.89 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] Steel Billet Inventory - Mainstream Warehouse: 122.3 tons on August 1, 2025, up 5.52 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Rolling Steel Enterprises Adjusting Billet: 73.6 tons on August 1, 2025, down 3.1 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Total: 195.9 tons on August 1, 2025, up 2.42 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] Other Steel Products - Hot-rolled Strip Steel (Steel Enterprise Inventory): 31.65 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.37 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Hot-rolled Strip Steel (Social Inventory): 68.2241 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.85 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Welded Pipe (Social Inventory): 82.51 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.06 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Seamless Pipe (Social Inventory): 70.09 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.55 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Special Steel (Steel Enterprise Inventory): 135.25 tons on August 1, 2025, down 2.53 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Special Steel (Social Inventory): 127.93 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.03 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] Sample Small Variety Steel Inventory - Total Inventory on August 1, 2025: 1133.2 tons, up 0.07 tons from July 25, 2025 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an "oscillation" rating for LPG, indicating that the expected price fluctuation is within plus or minus one standard deviation [4]. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure of LPG continues, and the cracking spread is running weakly. The internal market commodity sentiment has weakened, and the decline in coal prices has dragged down olefin prices, causing PG to follow suit. The impact of oil prices on the PG market has weakened recently. The pressure of associated gas in the US and the Middle East continues to suppress the overseas market. Although the US propane production has declined slightly, it remains at a high level. The operating rate of domestic refineries has slightly decreased, while the operating rate of major refineries remains at a high level for the same period. The supply pressure is difficult to refute. Overall, the current supply of PG is relatively loose. The price is expected to oscillate, and the cracking spread will run weakly [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG: Weekly View - **Supply**: Domestic major refineries have an operating rate of 81.55% (a month - on - month increase of 0.34%), independent refineries have an operating rate of 56.85% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.35%), the commercial volume of LPG is 52.65 tons (a 0.3% increase), the commercial volume of civil gas is 20.98 tons (a 0.3% decrease), and the arrival volume of LPG is 81 tons (a 65.3% increase). Overseas, the US propane production is 2822 thousand barrels per day (a 1.7% decrease) [4]. - **Demand**: In the domestic market, the price of gasoline in Shandong is 7799 yuan/ton (a 0.3% decrease), the cracking spread of Shandong gasoline against Brent is 10.16 dollars/barrel (a 22.3% decrease). The operating rate of MTBE is 65.89% (a 4.6% decrease), the operating rate of alkylated oil is 46.5614% (a 0.4% increase), and the operating rate of PDH plants is 72.63% (a 0.7% decrease). Overseas, the US propane exports this week are 1629 thousand barrels per day (a 22.2% decrease), and the inventory is 83477 thousand barrels (a 1.4% increase) [4]. - **Valuation**: The price of civil gas in Shandong is 4550 yuan/ton (a 1.5% decrease), and the price of ether - after C4 in Shandong is 4580 yuan/ton (a 3.4% decrease). Brent is at 71.27 dollars/barrel (a 4.1% increase), the CP price is 534.31 dollars/ton (a 1.9% increase), the MB price is 400.7 dollars/ton (a 2.6% increase), and the FEI price is 547.31 dollars/ton (a 2.8% increase) [4]. - **Basis**: The main basis of civil gas in Shandong is 340 yuan/ton (a 3% decrease) [4]. - **Inventory**: The refinery inventory is 18.08 tons (a 1.9% decrease), the port inventory is 313.44 tons (a 3.1% increase), and the storage capacity utilization rate of tertiary LPG stations is 60.33% (a 0.3% decrease) [4]. LPG: Price - Volume Performance - **Futures and Paper - Futures Prices**: As of August 1, the main LPG contract is at 3965 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 82 yuan/ton (- 2%); the FEI first - line contract is at 547.31 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of 14.92 dollars/ton (2.8%); the CP first - line contract is at 534.31 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of 9.9 dollars/ton (1.9%); the MB first - line contract is at 379.3 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of 9.5 dollars/ton (2.6%) [8]. - **Cracking Spreads**: The first - line LPG cracking spread is - 209.1701 yuan/barrel, with a weekly change of - 21.5916 yuan/barrel (- 11.5107%). The MB propane first - line cracking spread is - 38.2 dollars/barrel, with a weekly change of - 3 dollars/barrel (- 8.4%); the CP propane first - line cracking spread is - 28.2 dollars/barrel, with a weekly change of - 2 dollars/barrel (- 7.8%); the FEI propane first - line cracking spread is - 27.2 dollars/barrel, with a weekly change of - 1.6 dollars/barrel (- 6.4%); the NWE propane first - line cracking spread is - 33.73 dollars/barrel, with a weekly change of - 2.8 dollars/barrel (- 8.9%) [8][13]. - **Other Spreads**: As of August 1, the PP - 1.2*PG main contract spread is 2340 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 24.6 yuan/ton (- 1%); the MOPJ naphtha and Cash Diff cracking spread is - 3.43 dollars/barrel, with a weekly change of 0.1 dollars/barrel (3.1%); the MOPJ naphtha is at 596.25 dollars/ton, and the PN spread is - 48.94 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 2.8 dollars/ton (- 6%). The PG - FEI first - line spread is 16.4 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 220.8384 yuan/ton (- 93.0746%); the PG - CP first - line spread is 110.2 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 184.2971 yuan/ton (- 62.5759%) [19][28]. - **Freight and Related Data**: As of July 31, the freight from the Middle East to Japan is 85 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of 0.3 dollars/ton (0.4%); the freight from the US Gulf to Flushing is 76.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 1.5 dollars/ton (- 1.9%); the freight from the US Gulf to Japan is 137.667 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 3.4 dollars/ton (- 2.4%). The Panama water level is 86.3 feet, with a weekly change of - 0.1 feet (- 0.1%). The number of ships waiting to pass through the Panama Neopanamax lock is 25, with a weekly increase of 3 (13.6%); the number of ships waiting to pass through the Panamax Plus lock is 41, with a weekly increase of 13 (46.4%); the total is 66, with a weekly increase of 16 (32%) [31]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of the week of August 1, the registered warehouse receipts of Chinese LPG futures are 48975 lots, with a change of 955 lots (1.9888%) from last week. In July, the delivery volume of Chinese LPG futures is 1783 lots, with a change of + 1391 lots (+ 354.85%) from last month [34]. LPG: Supply - Demand Progress - **Supply**: In the week of July 1, the commercial volume of civil gas is 20.98 tons, a decrease of 0.06 tons (- 0.29%) from last week. The commercial volume of Chinese LPG is 52.65 tons, an increase of 0.16 tons (+ 0.3%) from last week. The weekly arrival volume of LPG is 81 tons, an increase of 32 tons (+ 65.31%) from last week [40]. - **Demand**: - **MTBE**: As of August 1, the MTBE market price is 5040 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 35 yuan/ton (- 0.7%); the MTBE plant profit is - 94 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 2.3 yuan/ton (2.3%); the MTBE plant operating rate is 65.89%, with a weekly change of - 3.2% (- 4.63%) [44]. - **Alkylated Oil**: As of August 1, the alkylated oil market price is 7899 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 37 yuan/ton (- 0.5%); the alkylated oil plant profit is - 3.5 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 17 yuan/ton (- 125.93%); the alkylated oil plant operating rate is 46.5614%, with a weekly change of + 0.2% (+ 0.43%) [48]. - **PDH**: As of August 1, the MTO - made propylene profit is - 737.6 yuan/ton, a change of - 157.8 yuan/ton (+ 27.22%) from last week; the naphtha - made propylene profit is - 86.6 dollars/ton, a change of - 15.2 dollars/ton (+ 21.29%) from last week; the PDH - made propylene profit is - 454.6 yuan/ton, a change of - 9.6 yuan/ton (+ 2.16%) from last week. The PDH plant operating rate is 72.63%, with a change of - 0.5% (- 0.68%) from last week [55]. - **Inventory**: - **Refinery Inventory**: As of August 1, the Chinese refinery inventory is 18.08 tons, a decrease of 0.35 tons (- 1.9%) from last week. The Shandong refinery inventory is 1.6 tons, an increase of 0.07 tons (+ 4.58%) from last week; the East China refinery inventory is 2.63 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons (- 12.91%) from last week; the South China refinery inventory is 2.58 tons, an increase of 0.01 tons (+ 0.39%) from last week [59]. - **Port Inventory**: The port inventory remains at a high level [61]. - **Downstream Storage Capacity Utilization Rate**: The downstream storage capacity utilization rate shows differentiation but remains relatively stable overall [64]. - **US Situation**: As of July 25, the US propane inventory is 83477 thousand barrels, an increase of 1150 thousand barrels (+ 1.4%) from last week; the US propane production is 2822 thousand barrels, a decrease of 49 thousand barrels (- 1.71%) from last week; the US propane exports are 1629 thousand barrels, a decrease of 466 thousand barrels (- 22.24%) from last week; the 4 - week average of US implied demand is 875 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 130 thousand barrels per day (+ 17.45%) from last week [69]. - **Monthly Data**: In July, the monthly production of Chinese LPG is 440 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 1.7199%), and from January to July 2025, the cumulative production of Chinese LPG is 3065.2 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 2.6271%). In June, the monthly import volume of Chinese LPG is 267.4 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 21.1%), and from January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume of Chinese LPG is 1767 tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.5%). In June, the monthly export volume of Chinese LPG is 8.8 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 23.2%), and from January to June 2025, the cumulative export volume of Chinese LPG is 54.5 tons (a year - on - year increase of 5.8%). In June, the monthly apparent demand for Chinese LPG is 694.5 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 11.5%), and from January to June 2025, the cumulative apparent demand for Chinese LPG is 4337.6 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%) [71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View The report focuses on the optimization of short strategies for China commodity options, analyzing the performance of different option - selling strategies, exploring directional and timing optimizations, and examining the impact of volatility environments on these strategies. It aims to find better investment opportunities and improve the win - rate of option - selling strategies through various optimization methods [7][12][45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Backtesting of Short Strategies - **Performance of Short Put Options**: In different gold price scenarios (rally, decline, and range - bounded move), the short put option can earn normal returns in rallies and range - bounded moves but may experience significant drawdowns in declines. In the past year, long - term holding of short put options on gold has shown good results, but protection against sharp declines is needed [7]. - **Directional Optimization of Short Put Options**: By using moving - average (MA) for directional timing (opening positions when the short MA crosses above the long MA and closing otherwise), the strategy has achieved better results in the past year, with a 50% increase in annualized return compared to standalone puts and about a 2% reduction in drawdown [12]. - **Problems with Short Call Options**: In the first half of 2025, the continuous and sharp rise in gold prices led to significant drawdowns in short call option strategies. Backtesting results from 2020.1 - 2025.5 show an annualized return of - 11.87% and a maximum drawdown of - 67.62% [19]. - **Directional Timing Optimization of Short Call Options**: When the 10 - day moving average crosses above the 20 - day moving average, closing short option positions can effectively avoid large drawdowns, reducing drawdowns by about 70%. After hedging, the annualized return of AU improved from - 11.87% to - 0.81%, and the maximum drawdown decreased from - 67.62% to - 20.93% [24]. - **Impact of Volatility on Short Straddle Strategy**: The short straddle strategy can earn income in range - bounded markets but incurs losses in rallies and declines. It has good long - term returns but faces recent drawdowns due to higher volatility [31]. - **Timing Optimization of Short Straddle Strategy**: The short straddle strategy with price - movement timing optimization has an annualized return of 6.05%, a maximum drawdown of - 9.97%, a win - rate of 60.21%, and a trade frequency of 1051 times, which is better than the non - optimized short straddle strategy [36]. 3.2 Volatility Environment Analysis - **Implied Volatility of Commodity Options - Outlook**: The implied volatility of commodity options tends to spike rapidly and decline slowly. This is due to market asymmetry, where sellers suppress IV in range - bounded markets, and when events occur, IV surges due to increased hedging and speculative demand, and then gradually declines as the market stabilizes [45]. - **Implied Volatility of Commodity Options - Example of Copper**: The short straddle strategy for copper options can continuously obtain time value at the Theta end and has a better holding experience as IV downtrends usually last longer. However, it needs to avoid the "double - kill" of Vega and Gamma caused by short - term IV spikes. The report aims to improve the win - rate by filtering short - straddle environments through volatility statistical features [50]. - **Review of Short Straddle Environments in Commodity Options**: Using a 20 - day rolling window to group implied volatility into 10 levels, the weekly performance of short straddle strategies for most commodities shows a "U - shape", performing better at low or high volatility levels and weaker at mid - range volatility. The preferred put - selling ranges are the 20 - day low (below 0.2 percentile) or 20 - day high (above 0.8 percentile), and short - straddling in these ranges for selected 10 commodities can optimize win - rates and payoff ratios [63][68]. - **Example of Lithium Carbonate Options**: When the implied volatility of lithium carbonate options retreats from highs and the option market activity is weak, it is suitable to deploy short option strategies [73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities; in the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter. Overseas, concerns about the decline in US employment and economic slowdown are rising, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year is increasing, which is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [7]. - Most domestic commodity futures declined, with crude oil leading the decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, the market's bets on the Fed's interest rate cut declined as the US Q2 GDP was better than expected, and the Fed's July meeting sent hawkish signals. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing concerns about the US economic downturn and the Fed's interest rate cut. Attention should be paid to US inflation data, the Jackson Hole meeting, and other events [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: Against the backdrop of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the tone of the July Politburo meeting was to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The July composite PMI was still above the critical point. The negotiation progress between the US and other economies needs to be monitored [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Overseas, the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and non - US dollar assets should be focused on [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: After event settlement, capital congestion is released. With insufficient incremental funds, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure. With rising volatility, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are strengthening in a volatile manner. The Trump tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy should be monitored. It is expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Steel**: After the meeting results are settled, attention should be paid to production - restriction disturbances. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as special - bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production has slightly decreased, and market sentiment has cooled. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as overseas mine production and transportation, domestic iron - water production, and policy dynamics [8]. - **Coke**: Supply and demand remain tight, and the fifth round of price increases has started. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the futures price has significantly corrected. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction is acceptable. Attention should be paid to cost adjustments. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering raw - material costs and steel - procurement situations [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has cooled, and there are still concerns about supply and demand. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: The futures price has declined, and spot sales have started to weaken. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Freight has risen in the short - term, supporting the spot price. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering soda - ash inventory [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: A non - ferrous metal growth - stabilization plan is about to be introduced, supporting the copper price. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering supply disturbances, domestic policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [8]. - **Alumina**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the alumina price is adjusting at a high level. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected ore production resumption and electrolytic - aluminum production resumption [8]. - **Aluminum**: The sentiment boost has slowed down, and the aluminum price has declined. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - risks, supply disturbances, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: Macro - sentiment persists, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - risks and unexpected zinc - ore supply recovery [8]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and the lead price is moving in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering supply - side disturbances and other factors [8]. - **Nickel**: The "anti - involution" trading has slowed down, and the nickel price is moving in a wide - range volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected supply - side production cuts [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The nickel - iron price has slightly rebounded, and the stainless - steel futures price is moving in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The LME inventory continues to decline, and the tin price is strengthening in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The "anti - involution" sentiment still exists, and the silicon price has rebounded. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering unexpected supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installation [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the lithium price has corrected after rising. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected demand and supply disturbances [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support continues. Attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [10]. - **LPG**: Supply pressure persists, and the cost side dominates the rhythm. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering the cost of crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: Crude oil prices have declined, and there is pressure from increased asphalt production. The futures price is under downward pressure. It is expected to decline, considering unexpected demand [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The possibility of a sharp decline in the high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is increasing. It is expected to decline, considering crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price has weakened following crude oil. It is expected to decline, considering crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Methanol**: There is a short - term differentiation between the inland and ports. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are below expectations. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering export policies and capacity elimination [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Typhoons have affected the arrival rhythm, and inventory accumulation is expected in August. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering port inventory accumulation inflection points and device recovery [10]. - **PX**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the price has returned to fundamental pricing. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering downstream PTA maintenance schedules and gasoline profit seasonality [10]. - **PTA**: Multiple devices have unexpectedly shut down, and processing fees are still under pressure. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering mainstream device production cuts and polyester joint production cuts [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream demand improvement is limited, and there is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering downstream yarn - mill purchasing rhythms and开工 [10]. - **Bottle Chip**: The production reduction scale in August continues to exceed 20%, strengthening the support for processing fees. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering future bottle - chip production [10]. - **Propylene**: Weak propane suppresses it, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short - term, considering oil prices and domestic macro - factors [10]. - **PP**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has changed, and the PP price has declined in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [10]. - **Plastic**: Macro - support has weakened, and the plastic price has declined in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [10]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: It has returned to weak - reality pricing, and the futures price is declining in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot pressure is emerging, and the caustic - soda price is moving weakly. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: Attention should be paid to the palm oil production in Malaysia. Recently, oils and fats are expected to move in a volatile consolidation. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The market continues the pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering US soybean weather and domestic demand [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: Market sentiment continues to be weak. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected demand and weather [10]. - **Live Pigs**: Inventory pressure persists, and the pig price is oscillating at a low level. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price is stabilizing following commodities. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The driving factors are unclear, and the futures price is moving in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [10]. - **Pulp**: It mainly follows the macro - trend. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage during the decline. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price and the price difference between months have rebounded. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: Supply pressure is increasing marginally, and the sugar price is under pressure. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering imports [10]. - **Logs**: The bullish sentiment is strong, and the log futures price is rising with increasing positions. It is expected to decline in a volatile manner, considering shipment and dispatch volumes [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].