Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Oscillating [4] - Alumina: Oscillating weakly in the medium to long term, with short - term opportunities for positive spreads or cautious short - selling [5] - Aluminum: Short - term unilateral trading depends on inventory accumulation and geopolitical trends; medium - to long - term trading with a bearish bias [6] - Aluminum Alloy: Short - term spot is weak in the off - season, while the medium - to long - term has an upward expectation [8] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly [11] - Lead: Oscillating [12] - Nickel: Oscillating weakly in the short term, with a strategy of short - selling on rebounds in the medium - to long term [15] - Stainless Steel: Oscillating in the short term [22] - Tin: Oscillating [23] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The reality of low inventories and the expectation of weakening demand in the non - ferrous metals industry are intertwined, leading to continued oscillations. In the short - to medium - term, focus on structural opportunities, and cautiously consider short - term long positions in copper, aluminum, and tin. In the medium - to long - term, there is uncertainty in the demand prospects of base metals, and short - selling opportunities on rallies can be considered for some oversupplied or expected - to - be - oversupplied varieties [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Copper - Information: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate, Antofagasta initiated mid - year negotiations, copper production increased, and copper inventories decreased significantly. The spot had a certain premium, and嘉能可 purchased Russian copper. Trump raised tariffs on steel and aluminum imports [4] - Logic: Overseas economies may continue to weaken. Supply risks persist due to low processing fees, and demand is weakening in the off - season, but low inventories support copper prices [4] - Outlook: Copper prices may oscillate at a high level in the short term [4] Alumina - Information: Spot prices declined, warehouse receipts decreased, and an electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang conducted a tender [4][5] - Logic: In the short - to medium - term, there is no shortage of ore, and the market is affected by various events. The market has gradually digested the news, and further upward movement requires an expansion of production cuts [5] - Outlook: Medium - to long - term oscillations are weak, and short - term positive spreads or cautious short - selling can be considered [5] Aluminum - Information: Aluminum prices and inventory data changed, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, and the US increased tariffs on household appliances [6] - Logic: The possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has an impact on the regional balance, but the possibility and long - term ability are uncertain. Domestic inventory accumulation is increasing, and consumption may be under pressure in the second half of the year [6] - Outlook: Short - term trading depends on inventory and geopolitics, and medium - to long - term trading has a bearish bias [6] Aluminum Alloy - Information: Aluminum alloy prices and related data changed, and there were policies for new energy vehicle promotions and payment term commitments from car companies [7][10] - Logic: The off - season pressure on the automotive industry is high, but electrolytic aluminum prices drive the upward movement of waste aluminum and ADC12. In the medium - to long - term, ADC12 demand is expected to recover seasonally [7][8] - Outlook: Short - term spot is weak, and medium - to long - term has an upward expectation [8] Zinc - Information: Spot premiums, inventory changes, and Kipushi's production plan were reported [11] - Logic: Macro uncertainties exist, zinc ore supply is loosening, and demand is weakening in the off - season. Inventory accumulation is emerging, and the price support is weakening [11] - Outlook: Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with a downward trend in the medium - to long - term [11] Lead - Information: Lead prices, inventory, and related data changed, and there were news about lead smelter maintenance and market supply and demand [12] - Logic: The cost support is stable, the supply is decreasing due to smelter maintenance and environmental inspections, and the demand is gradually emerging from the off - season, but the market is in a state of low supply and demand [12][13] - Outlook: Lead prices are expected to oscillate [12] Nickel - Information: Nickel inventories increased, and there were news about mining cooperation, investment, and policy in the nickel industry [15] - Logic: The market is dominated by sentiment, the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally, and the supply is in excess, with high inventory pressure [15][19] - Outlook: Short - term wide - range oscillations, and short - selling on rebounds in the medium - to long - term [15] Stainless Steel - Information: Stainless steel futures warehouse receipts, spot premiums, production data, and raw material prices changed [22] - Logic: Nickel and chromium prices are falling, and the supply and demand situation is complex. The inventory has a certain accumulation, but the structural oversupply pressure is limited [22] - Outlook: Short - term range oscillations, and attention should be paid to inventory and cost changes [22] Tin - Information: Tin warehouse receipts, inventory, and spot prices changed [23] - Logic: There is no obvious driving force currently. The supply in the main production areas has stabilized, and the domestic ore supply is tight, but the upward elasticity of prices is limited [23] - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to oscillate [23]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-6-24 多空要素交织，⾦价震荡 美国美联储审慎、地缘风险升温、经济数据超预期，多空要素交织， 金价震荡。 重点资讯： 1）美国6月标普全球制造业PMI初值 52，预期51，前值52；美国 6月标普全球服务业PMI初值 53.1，预期52.9，前值53.7。 2）美国5月成屋销售总数年化 403万户，预期397万户，前值400 万户。 3）俄罗斯总统普京周五表示，他认为整个乌克兰"都是我们 的"，并警告说推进中的俄军可能会占领乌克兰的苏梅市，以期 在边境开辟缓冲区。 价格逻辑： 美国本周末针对伊朗关键核设施发动了代号"午夜铁锤"的协调军事 打击，特朗普宣称行动成功。尽管此次地缘政治紧张局势显著升级， 且伊朗立即予以谴责并威胁报复（伊朗议会特别批准了关闭重要石油 咽喉要道霍尔木兹海峡的动议），但黄金价格回落，交投于3,370美 元附近并伴有轻微日内跌幅。伊朗威胁可能关闭霍尔木兹海峡，加剧 了人们对全球能源供应中断的担忧，推高了通胀风险。尽管这种地缘 政治不确定性增强了黄金的避险吸引力，但金价仍难以突破关键阻力 位3,400美 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical impact on stock index futures is controllable, and the A-share market is in a stage of oscillation to find a direction. The core contradiction lies in the need for policy support in the weak reality and the unclear impact of tariff events on the fundamentals. The marginal flow of funds determines the short - term market direction [1][7]. - For stock index options, sentiment repair continuity can be arranged. The trading volume of the options market increased, and the sentiment of each variety rebounded slightly. The defensive sentiment weakened, and the volatility reached the lowest level this year. It is advisable to use collar strategies or bull spreads and also consider light - position double - buying [2][8]. - In the case of treasury bond futures, the profit - taking sentiment may increase. The treasury bond futures mostly declined yesterday. Although the market's risk - aversion sentiment may have increased due to the conflict between Israel and Iran, the increase was limited. With the approaching of the end of the quarter and the acceleration of local bond issuance, the market is cautious about the capital side, and the 10Y treasury bond interest rate is near the key point [3][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: The A - share market oscillated and recovered yesterday, with the whole A - index rising 0.85%. The computer, military, and coal sectors led the gains, and the trading volume of the two markets was 1.15 trillion. The number of daily limit stocks increased to 83 [7]. - **Key Data**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts was - 34.50 points, - 30.78 points, - 48.37 points, and - 76.82 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 7.74 points, 6.14 points, 2.74 points, and - 12.03 points. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by 18334 lots, 12339 lots, 6879 lots, and 12238 lots [7]. - **Logic**: The geopolitical risk is the main variable in the news, but the market expects a low probability of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked. The core contradiction in the A - share market is the need for policy support in the weak reality and the unclear impact of tariff events. The recent depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar has suppressed the sentiment of the pharmaceutical and new - consumption sectors [1][7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines [7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Market Situation**: The underlying market opened low and closed high yesterday. The sentiment of small - cap stocks recovered. The trading volume of the options market was 4082 million yuan, a 5.08% increase from the previous trading day, with medium - to - high liquidity and active intraday trading [2][8][9]. - **Key Data**: The PCR of the 50ETF and CSI 1000 stock index futures showed different rebound strengths, with the 50ETF reaching the level at the end of May [8]. - **Logic**: The downward sentiment of each variety has eased, and the defensive sentiment has weakened. The volatility has reached the lowest level this year, and the cost - effectiveness of short - volatility is low [2][8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Use collar strategies, bull spreads, and light - position double - buying [8]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Situation**: Treasury bond futures mostly declined yesterday. The T main contract continued to decline in price after opening, rebounded in the afternoon, but still closed slightly lower. The TL main contract opened higher in the morning but turned down during the day [3][8][10]. - **Key Data**: The trading volume and positions of T, TF, TS, and TL current - quarter contracts changed to varying degrees. The central bank conducted 22.05 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases yesterday, with 34.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing [8]. - **Logic**: The conflict between Israel and Iran may have increased the market's risk - aversion sentiment, but the increase was limited. The stock market strengthened during the day, showing a stock - bond seesaw effect. The capital side was relatively stable, but the market was cautious due to the approaching end of the quarter and the acceleration of local bond issuance. The 10Y treasury bond interest rate is near the key point [3][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a trend strategy of oscillation, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels for hedging strategies, appropriately focus on the widening of the basis for basis strategies, and choose to steepen the curve in the medium - term for curve strategies [10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - On June 23, 2025, the initial value of the Eurozone's June SPGI manufacturing PMI was 49.4, the same as the previous value; the initial value of the US June SPGI manufacturing PMI was 52, higher than the predicted value [11]. - On June 24, 2025, the German June IFO business climate index and the US June Conference Board consumer confidence index are yet to be announced [11]. - Other economic data such as the US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21, 2025, and the Eurozone's June consumer confidence index final value are also scheduled for release in the following days [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **US Macroeconomics**: Federal Reserve Governor Bowman said that if inflation remains subdued, she may support a rate cut by the Fed in July. If inflation continues to decline or the job market weakens, the FOMC can cut interest rates [12]. - **Real Estate**: The Hangzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center launched a service allowing employees to use their housing provident fund to directly pay the down - payment for newly built commercial housing in Hangzhou, with full online processing support. The online processing function for second - hand houses is under development and will be launched soon [12]. - **Stablecoins**: The Hong Kong "Stablecoin Ordinance" will come into effect on August 1, 2025. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has set relatively strict standards for stablecoin issuers, with a high entry threshold. It is expected that only a few licenses will be issued initially, and the licensed stablecoins will have specific uses such as cross - border trade [12]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - Information about stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures data is mentioned in the content, but no specific detailed summaries are provided in the text other than the data presented in the market views section [13][17][29].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive time in June, with a more cautious outlook on下半年 rate cuts. US economic fundamentals face geopolitical risks and uncertainties in trade prospects, and rising oil prices may prompt the Fed to adopt a hawkish stance [6]. - Domestic macro: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced multiple financial support policies, increasing expectations for下半年 policies. In May, fixed - asset investment expanded, manufacturing and service industries grew, and industrial and consumer data showed positive trends [6]. - Asset viewpoint: The domestic economy maintains a weak - stable pattern, with mainly structural opportunities for domestic assets. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while the long - term weak - dollar pattern continues [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Essentials - **Overseas Macro** - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50% in June. US economic data such as retail sales, industrial output, and the manufacturing index were weak. Economic recovery is limited by geopolitical and trade uncertainties, and high oil prices may lead to a hawkish Fed [6]. - **Domestic Macro** - The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced financial support policies. 162 billion yuan of "national subsidy" funds have been allocated to local areas, and the remaining will be distributed gradually. In May, fixed - asset investment, industrial and service sectors, and consumer spending all showed positive growth [6]. - **Asset Viewpoint** - Domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities. Overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations, and the long - term weak - dollar trend continues. Strategic allocation to resources like gold is recommended [6]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector** - **Stock Index Futures**: Funds are releasing congestion, with risks of end - of - session stock stampedes and deteriorating dollar liquidity, and are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: Selling options requires waiting for a downward inflection point in volatility, with deteriorating option liquidity, and are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, with risks of unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing, and are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals** - Gold and silver are expected to continue short - term adjustments due to better - than - expected Sino - US negotiations, with attention to Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy, and are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Shipping** - The container shipping market to Europe is expected to focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with attention to tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies, and is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Black Building Materials** - **Steel Products**: Inventory is being depleted, with limited fundamental contradictions. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production, and they are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Hot metal production has increased, and port inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot metal production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Coke**: A fourth round of price cuts is imminent, and prices are weakly stable. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Transaction volume has improved, and the price decline has slowed. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials** - **Copper**: The dollar index is weak, and copper prices are high. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's dovish stance, domestic demand recovery, and economic recession, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The number of warehouse receipts is low, and the alumina futures price has risen. Attention should be paid to unexpected delays in ore production resumption, excessive electrolytic aluminum production resumption, and extreme sector trends, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Aluminum**: Low inventory and high premiums have led to a rise in aluminum prices. Attention should be paid to macro risks, supply disruptions, and insufficient demand, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Zinc**: The supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply, and it is expected to decline with fluctuations [8]. - **Nickel**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and nickel prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and insufficient supply release, and it is expected to decline with fluctuations [8]. - **Energy and Chemical Industry** - **Crude Oil**: The US may intervene in the Israel - Iran conflict, and crude oil will continue to have high volatility. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and US sanctions on Iran [11]. - **Methanol**: The Israel - Iran conflict has not subsided, and methanol is expected to be strong with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [11]. - **Urea**: Geopolitical disturbances and the start of domestic and foreign demand have led to a strong futures price. Attention should be paid to market transactions, policy trends, and demand fulfillment [11]. - **Agriculture** - **Oils and Fats**: Yesterday's performance was differentiated, with soybean oil being strong. Attention should be paid to South American soybean harvests, US soybean planting, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data, and it is expected to rise with fluctuations [11]. - **Protein Meal**: Oil mills' inventory accumulation may put pressure on the basis, and the futures - cash market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to US soybean planting area and weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and trade disputes [11]. - **Corn/Starch**: The number of incoming vehicles is low, and the futures and cash prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to insufficient demand, macro factors, and weather [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. is expected to continue the "import rush" from Southeast Asia until mid-June, accelerate the "import rush" from China in June and weaken it in July, and the mild restocking in the U.S. may end in August. The second quarter may see the peak of China's year-on-year export growth rate for the year, followed by a quarterly decline. Under a neutral assumption, China's annual export year-on-year growth rate may be approximately 1.5%. [2][3] - The outcome of China-U.S. tariff negotiations has influenced the pace of the U.S. "import rush" from China. The progress of tariff negotiations between the U.S. and economies with close trade ties to China has a significant impact on China's exports. [17][42] - The export pressure will intensify in the second half of the year, and domestic stable growth policies may be stepped up in the fourth quarter. [64] - "Import rush" will support the short - term U.S. economy, and the market trading contradiction has shifted from tariffs to U.S. fiscal and credit issues. It is recommended to strategically allocate gold and non - dollar assets. [66] Summary by Directory 1. Overview - In April, high reciprocal tariffs between China and the U.S. led shipping companies to reallocate capacity to other routes, causing a slow recovery of U.S. route capacity. The U.S. "import rush" from China is expected to intensify in June and weaken in July. [7][14] - The "import rush" is first reflected in freight rates, and the shipment lags behind freight rates. Since June 3, the daily shipment volume from China to the U.S. has been above 49 ships. [8][9] - The U.S. "import rush" from Southeast Asia may lead China's "re - export rush" to last until mid - June at most. [10][15] - The U.S. weak restocking may end in August. [11][15] - The future trend of China's exports depends on tariff changes in the global trade environment. The main export destinations in 2024 were ASEAN, the U.S., the EU, etc. [12][16] - The progress of U.S. - Southeast Asia negotiations may impact China's re - export of labor - intensive products, and the inertia of EU economic policy decisions may affect Sino - EU trade. [13][16] 2. Imports Rush of the U.S. - The outcome of China - U.S. tariff negotiations affects the U.S. "import rush" from China. During the tariff tension period (April 9 - May 9), the number of fully - loaded vessels decreased. During the tariff easing period (from May 12), it boosted the "import rush". [17][20] - In April, high reciprocal tariffs led to a slow recovery of U.S. route capacity, and in late May, the actual shipping data continued to decline. [25][26] - The U.S. "import rush" from China is expected to end by mid - June, and after mid - June, the incremental volume of China's "re - export rush" through Southeast Asia will be limited. [31][34] - The U.S. may reach the turning point of inventory growth rate in August. [37][38] 3. Tariff Negotiations - China's current export demand may be from backlogged orders, and the future export trend depends on tariff changes. The suspension of Trump's reciprocal tariffs for some economies will expire on July 8. [42][43] - The U.S. has only signed agreements with China and the UK, and the EU - U.S. negotiation progresses slowly. The U.S. increasing steel and aluminum tariffs will pressure the negotiation. [47] - Sino - European relations seem to improve, but the EU's potential restrictions on China and the inertia of its economic policy may affect trade. [48][49] - Japan, Indonesia, India and the U.S. have relatively good negotiation progress, but India's stance has hardened recently. [52][54] - Attention should be paid to the U.S. - Southeast Asia negotiation progress and its impact on China's entrepot trade. [53][55] 4. Different Scenarios - China's exports from May to July will maintain resilience, but the U.S. has increased non - tariff barriers against China, and the Sino - U.S. trade trend is uncertain. [56][62] - Three scenarios are assumed: in the optimistic scenario, China's 2025 export growth rate may be around 3%; in the neutral scenario, it may be around 1.5%; in the pessimistic scenario, it may be around - 2%. [58][63] - The export pressure will intensify in the second half of the year, and domestic stable growth policies may be stepped up in the fourth quarter. [64][65] 5. Asset Outlook - "Import rush" will support the short - term U.S. economy, and the market trading contradiction has shifted. It is recommended to strategically allocate gold and non - dollar assets. The bond market has value for dip - buying after the funding pressure subsides, and the stock market and commodities are expected to fluctuate in the short term. [66][67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 19, equity index futures declined while 30 - Y CGB futures rose; energy & chemical futures increased, while metal futures declined [2][10][12] - The MOFCOM stated that it will continuously accelerate review of rare earths export license applications in accordance with laws and regulations [1][3][35] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On June 19, equity index futures declined, 30 - Y CGB futures rose, energy & chemical futures increased, and metal futures declined. The top three gainers were Chinese jujube (up 4.9% with 29.6% month - on - month open interest increase), crude oil (up 4.7% with 8.4% month - on - month open interest increase), and LSFO (up 2.7% with 0.5% month - on - month open interest decrease). The top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (down 4.0% with 0.4% month - on - month open interest decrease), poly - silicon (down 2.5% with 9.3% month - on - month open interest decrease), and silver (down 1.9% with 13.1% month - on - month open interest decrease) [10][11][12] 3.1.2 Daily Rise - Crude Oil - On June 19, crude oil increased by 4.7% to 570.9 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical uncertainties put oil prices in a high - risk phase, expected to be volatile. API data showed a significant draw in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, but gasoline inventories declined more modestly. The IEA monthly report revised down annual demand growth forecast and raised supply expectations. Short - term Middle East geopolitical concerns dominate oil price fluctuations. Attacks on energy infrastructure have occurred but haven't materially affected production or transportation. If geopolitical tensions ease, premiums may decline rapidly, but supply disruption expectations are hard to falsify, leading to more volatile oil prices [15][16][17] 3.1.3 Daily Drop 3.1.3.1 Copper - On June 19, copper decreased by 0.4% to 78310 yuan/ton. Supply constraints and low inventories support the bottom of copper prices, and it may show high - level volatility in the short term. U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the third consecutive month in May, with overseas economic weakening risks. Copper concentrate and blister copper processing fees are low, and raw material supplies are tight. Domestic and overseas smelters have cut production. As the consumption off - season approaches, downstream replenishment willingness has weakened, and domestic social inventories have started to rebound, limiting price upside. The U.S. may increase copper tariffs, causing the COMEX copper price to rise again [22][23][24] 3.1.3.2 Gold - On June 19, gold decreased by 0.5% to 781.24 yuan/gram. The Fed kept rates unchanged in June, indicating two rate cuts this year. It lowered growth forecasts and raised inflation projections, validating stagflation risks. After the meeting, gold had a slight late - session decline but maintained an overall volatile trend. The Israel - Palestine conflict continues but with no significant intensity escalation, and the safe - haven sentiment driving gold is gradually weakening. Since June, gold's correction magnitude has narrowed, and its price center has moved upward, maintaining a long - term bullish trend, with silver following a relatively strong volatile pattern [29][30][31] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - The MOFCOM stated that China is fully prepared for CPTPP accession and will actively align with high - standard international economic and trade rules, steadily expanding institutional opening - up. It also said that it will continuously accelerate the review of rare earths export license applications in accordance with laws and regulations and strengthen communication on export controls with relevant countries [35] 3.2.2 Industry News - As of June 19, the total dividend amount of public funds this year exceeded 107.66 billion yuan, a 47% increase year - on - year. At the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, the HKEX CEO said there are over 160 companies queuing for IPO in Hong Kong, and the mainland and Hong Kong exchanges should develop in a dislocation manner to jointly promote the construction of a multi - level capital market system [36][37]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-6-20 美元⼩幅⾛强，贵⾦属短线震荡 美联储按兵不动符合市场预期，年内降息预期维持两次，⾸降时点维持在 9⽉。美联储继续下调增⻓预期并上调通胀预期，滞胀⻛险的⽅向进⼀步 验证。在流动性未有短期宽松的场景下，⽇内权益市场整体下跌，贵⾦属 同样偏弱震荡运⾏。伊以冲突持续但未显著升级，避险情绪给⻩⾦带来的 驱动逐渐减弱。6⽉以来⻩⾦调整幅度逐渐收窄，价格重⼼震荡抬升， 中⻓期多头趋势维持，⽩银跟随⻩⾦，中期震荡偏强对待。 1）以色列总理内塔尼亚胡表示，此前一天他再次与美国总统特朗普 通话，双方设定了两个目标：消除伊朗的核威胁和弹道导弹威胁。 以色列军方发言人表示，以色列国防军当天袭击了伊朗位于布什尔、 伊斯法罕和纳坦兹等地的核设施，并仍在继续针对更多伊朗目标发动 打击。 2）英国央行将政策基准利率维持在4.25%不变，符合市场预期，利率 保持在逾两年高位。英国央行行长贝利表示，关于预期利率将逐步下 降的声明并不代表对八月份降息的预测。 3）欧盟正在推动与美国达成英国式的贸易协议，该协议将在下个月 的最后期限之后保留部分关税，进 ...

钢材周度供需数据解读 2025/6/20 研究员: 余典 从业资相号 F03122528 投资咨询号 Z0019832 陶存辉 从业资格号 F03099558 股资咨询号 Z0020955 张真 从业资格号 F03106996 投资咨询号 Z0021-118 薛磊 从业资格号 F03100815 投资咨询号 Z0021807 申宇蒙 从业资格号 F03144159 投资咨询号 Z0022199 板材供需好于预期,但市场情绪依然偏悲观 需求: 螺纹表需219.19万吨（-0.78）,同比-7.03%; 热卷表需300.69万吨（+10.81）,同比3.68%; 五大材表需 884.18 万吨（+16.08）,同比1.85%。 赌评，本周载探索同比降幅扩大，钢厂库存去优惠度缓良、谈季轻配钥显。随着消酮他揭矿电子，产量低位团升，价格风近运行。制造业同样进入淡季、尽管终新反馈不佳，但本周热卷表席卢明显回升，产生回升相度数小，库存 低位去化。中厚板和冷轧供需维持高位。近期汽车、家电等行业处于淡季，补贴和美国关税政策形成扰动，因此尽管数据表现较好，但上行驱动有限，黑色价格仍维持震荡运行态势。 风险提示:需求放量、炉料供给 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, the ratings are as follows: - Copper: Mid - term outlook is "oscillation" [6] - Alumina: Mid - long term outlook is "oscillation on the weak side" [8] - Aluminum: Short - term outlook is "strong oscillation", mid - long term consumption may face pressure [9] - Aluminum alloy: Short - term outlook is "spot is weak in the off - season, the market follows aluminum and is strong", mid - long term outlook is that "spot ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to rebound" [12] - Zinc: Outlook is "oscillation on the weak side" [13] - Lead: Outlook is "oscillation" [17] - Nickel: Short - term outlook is "wide - range oscillation", mid - long term can "short on rebounds" [23] - Stainless steel: Short - term outlook is "range oscillation" [25] - Tin: Outlook is "oscillation" [27] Report's Core View - The reality of low inventory and the expectation of weakening demand are intertwined, and the non - ferrous metals market will continue to oscillate. In the short and medium term, the weak US dollar, low LME inventory, and weakening demand are intertwined. Attention should be paid to structural opportunities, and short - term long opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin can be cautiously considered. In the long term, the demand prospects of basic metals are still uncertain, and opportunities to short on rallies for some varieties with supply surplus or expected surplus can be considered [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情观点 Copper - **View**: The Fed maintains the interest rate unchanged, and copper prices oscillate. - **Analysis**: US May labor market data is better than expected; global copper mining giant Antofagasta starts mid - year negotiations; China's electrolytic copper production increases; spot premiums decline; copper inventory decreases; Glencore buys Russian copper; Trump raises tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. - **Logic**: Overseas economy may continue to weaken. Supply is tight due to falling processing fees and smelter maintenance. Demand weakens in the off - season, and there is a risk of tariff increase on copper. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and low inventory supports prices. Copper may oscillate at a high level in the short term [6] Alumina - **View**: The number of warehouse receipts is at a low level, and the monthly spread of the alumina futures market widens. - **Analysis**: Spot prices decline; shipping freight increases; warehouse receipts decrease. - **Logic**: In the short and medium term, there is no shortage of ore, but warehouse receipt depletion is obvious. In the long term, events have limited impact without further fermentation. - **Outlook**: Mid - long term outlook is oscillation on the weak side. Short - term positive spreads or shorting can be considered after the far - month contract rises further [7][8] Aluminum - **View**: Low inventory and high premiums lead to high - level oscillation of aluminum prices. - **Analysis**: Spot prices decline; inventory decreases; geopolitical events occur; new tariff policies are introduced. - **Logic**: Short - term geopolitical and squeezing risks push up prices. Mid - long term consumption may face pressure. - **Outlook**: Short - term prices are strongly oscillating, and mid - long term consumption may be under pressure. Short - term positive spreads can be considered, and mid - long term shorting on rallies is recommended [9][10] Aluminum Alloy - **View**: The transaction prices of scrap aluminum and spot increase, and the aluminum alloy futures market rises. - **Analysis**: Spot prices decline; relevant policies are introduced; car companies make payment commitments. - **Logic**: Short - term pressure in the off - season is high, but low inventory of electrolytic aluminum drives prices up. Mid - long term demand is expected to recover seasonally. - **Outlook**: Short - term spot is weak in the off - season, and the market follows aluminum and is strong. Mid - long term spot ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to rebound [10][12] Zinc - **View**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and zinc prices oscillate on the weak side. - **Analysis**: Spot premiums are different in different regions; inventory increases; a mine's production plan is announced. - **Logic**: Macro uncertainty exists. Supply is loose, and demand is in the off - season. Inventory accumulates, and prices may decline further. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to oscillate on the weak side [12][13] Lead - **View**: Cost support is stable, and lead prices oscillate. - **Analysis**: Scrap battery prices rise; lead ingot prices increase; inventory changes; some enterprises are in maintenance or production reduction. - **Logic**: Spot premiums narrow slightly; supply tightens; demand is in the off - season but with some positive factors. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate [13][14][17] Nickel - **View**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and nickel prices are weak in the short term. - **Analysis**: LME and domestic nickel inventories change; relevant investment and cooperation projects are announced. - **Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. Industry fundamentals weaken marginally. Inventory accumulates, and prices are under pressure. - **Outlook**: Short - term wide - range oscillation, mid - long term shorting on rebounds [17][23] Stainless Steel - **View**: Nickel iron prices continue to decline, and the stainless steel futures market oscillates. - **Analysis**: Futures warehouse receipts decrease; spot premiums exist; production data changes. - **Logic**: Nickel iron and chrome iron prices decline, and steel mills are under pressure. Supply and demand may weaken, and inventory accumulates slightly. - **Outlook**: Short - term range oscillation [24][25] Tin - **View**: There is no obvious driving force, and tin prices oscillate. - **Analysis**: Warehouse receipts and inventory increase; spot prices rise; high prices suppress restocking. - **Logic**: Supply disturbances in the main production areas subside. Without obvious driving forces, prices oscillate. Supply is tight, but upward elasticity is limited. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate [25][27] 2.行情监测 - The report does not provide specific content for this part, so it is skipped.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for various energy and chemical products, including "oscillating", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating weakly", etc., which can be used as a reference for the investment outlook of individual products [266]. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is in a complex situation. Chemical products generally follow the strong trend of crude oil. The geopolitical risk between Iran and Israel has intensified, leading to increased volatility in crude oil prices, which in turn affects the prices of downstream chemical products [1][2]. - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical sector is a strong - oscillating trend, and a long - short allocation strategy is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On June 19, SC2508 closed at 570.9 yuan/barrel, up 3.29%, and Brent2508 closed at 78.74 dollars/barrel, up 3.5%. - Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East dominate short - term oil price fluctuations. Although there have been attacks on energy infrastructure, there has been no substantial impact on crude oil production. Oil prices are expected to oscillate with high volatility [6]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - The main asphalt futures closed at 3695 yuan/ton. Spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong were 3770 yuan/ton, 3990 yuan/ton, and 3800 yuan/ton respectively. - Due to the escalation of the Iran - Israel geopolitical situation, asphalt prices have a geopolitical premium. However, in the medium - long term, the increase in heavy oil supply will put pressure on the asphalt cracking spread. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued [7]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3333 yuan/ton. - Geopolitical factors have led to a sharp increase in prices, but in the medium - long term, the increase in heavy oil supply will put pressure on the cracking spread. Overall, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8][9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3921 yuan/ton. - It follows the trend of crude oil. Currently, it has a low valuation and is facing various negative factors such as weak shipping demand and green energy substitution. It is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [10]. 3.1.5 LPG - On June 19, 2025, the PG 2508 contract closed at 4513 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. - Driven by rising crude oil prices, the supply pressure has been relieved, and the chemical demand has recovered. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. 3.1.6 PX - On June 19, the CFR price of PX in Taiwan, China was 904 (16) dollars/ton, and PX 2509 closed at 7094 (106) yuan/ton. - The supply capacity of Asian PX is increasing, and the support from the supply - demand fundamentals in China is weakening. Short - term fluctuations are mainly affected by crude oil. It is expected to be strong in the short term due to production cut news [12]. 3.1.7 PTA - On June 19, the spot price of PTA was 5175 (- 30) yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee was 269 (- 118) yuan/ton. - The supply - demand situation of PTA is weakening at the margin, and it follows the short - term trend of crude oil. It is expected to be strong in the short term following the cost side [12]. 3.1.8 Styrene - On June 19, the spot price of styrene in East China was 8050 (100) yuan/ton. - The future driving force is insufficient. The supply may increase, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly [11][12]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - On June 19, the price of ethylene glycol increased, and the basis weakened. - It has a low - inventory pattern and is driven by rising crude oil prices. The weekly operating rate reached a five - year high. It is expected to oscillate strongly [14][15]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - On June 19, the price of polyester short - fiber was 6800 (+ 55) yuan/ton. - The short - fiber industry has a good pattern. The rise in crude oil prices leads to a compensatory increase in the downstream industry chain. The processing fee has limited compression space. It is expected to oscillate strongly [15][16]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chip - On June 19, the price of polyester bottle chips increased with the rise of raw materials. - The processing fee is in an oscillating pattern. As production cuts are implemented, the processing fee is expected to expand. Long positions in the processing fee can be gradually arranged [17]. 3.1.12 Methanol - On June 19, the low - end spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2750 yuan/ton. - The situation in Iran provides short - term support. The inventory in ports has decreased, and coal prices have stabilized. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [20][21]. 3.1.13 Urea - On June 19, the low - end factory and market prices of urea were 1790 (+ 20) and 1820 (+ 0) respectively. - High supply continues, but the demand at home and abroad has started. The overseas supply is affected by geopolitics, leading to a sharp increase in overseas prices. It is expected to oscillate strongly [21]. 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - On June 19, the mainstream spot price of LLDPE was 7400 (20) yuan/ton. - Affected by the rise in oil prices, the short - term price has rebounded. However, the fundamentals are still under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23]. 3.1.15 PP - On June 19, the mainstream transaction price of East China wire drawing was 7250 (30) yuan/ton. - Driven by the rise in oil prices and supported by methanol, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24]. 3.1.16 PVC - On June 19, the benchmark price of PVC by calcium carbide method in East China was 4840 (+ 0) yuan/ton. - Affected by the rise in energy prices, but the fundamentals are still under pressure. The cost has increased, and it is expected to oscillate [26]. 3.1.17 Caustic Soda - On June 19, the price of 50% caustic soda in Shandong was 2760 (+ 0) yuan/ton. - The supply and demand are weak in June and July. The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price follows the production - cut logic. It is expected to operate weakly [27]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of various products such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. It also shows cross - variety spreads and their change values [28]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists various products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., no specific data or analysis content is provided in the given text.