Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soda Ash**: The supply - increase and demand - stable pattern continues. With the resumption of weekly production to a high level and stable demand, there is still pressure on soda ash enterprises to accumulate inventory. The futures price may continue to fluctuate weakly. The SA2509 contract is expected to find support around 1300 yuan/ton. Opportunities for short - selling on rebounds due to macro - positive factors or supply reduction can be monitored [5]. - **Glass**: The marginal change in glass supply and demand is limited. The large number of registered warehouse receipts suppresses the near - month price. The short - term market may continue to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies, and 5 - 9 reverse arbitrage can be considered [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly View Summary - **Soda Ash**: The device operating rate is 89.50% (+1.45%), weekly output is 75.56 tons (+1.78 tons). The apparent demand is 73.73 tons (-0.88 tons). The enterprise inventory is 171.13 tons (+1.83 tons). The price is weakly stable, and the futures price may be weak [5]. - **Glass**: The float glass daily melting volume is 15.85 tons, unchanged. The total inventory of sample enterprises is 6507.8 million weight boxes (-12.5 million weight boxes, -0.19% MoM, +9.94% YoY). The average order days of deep - processing enterprises is 9.3 days (13.4% MoM, -17.7% YoY). The price is slightly up, and the market may be weak [6]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition - **Market Review - Spot Price**: As of April 17, 2025, in the central China region, the heavy soda ash market price is 1400 yuan/ton, and the light soda ash is 1300 yuan/ton. In the northern China region, the heavy soda ash is 1550 yuan/ton, and the light soda ash is 1450 yuan/ton. The soda ash futures price is weak, and the glass futures price drops sharply [12][15]. - **Market Review - Spread**: As of April 17, 2025, the soda ash 5 - 9 spread is -39 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton MoM), the glass 5 - 9 spread is -28 yuan/ton (+18 yuan/ton MoM), and the glass - soda ash arbitrage spread is 192 yuan/ton (+41 yuan/ton MoM) [20]. - **Fundamentals - Supply**: Soda ash output is 75.56 tons (+1.78 tons). The comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 89.50% (+1.45%). Some plants have maintenance plans. The float glass daily output is 15.85 tons, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume is 96130 tons, both unchanged [28][32][43]. - **Fundamentals - Inventory**: As of April 17, 2025, soda ash enterprise inventory is 171.13 tons (+1.83 tons). The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises is 6507.8 million weight boxes (-12.5 million weight boxes, -0.19% MoM, +9.94% YoY) [36][48]. - **Fundamentals - Profit**: As of April 17, 2025, the theoretical profit of ammonia - soda process soda ash is -60 yuan/ton (+26 yuan/ton MoM), and the theoretical profit of dual - ton combined - soda process is 154 yuan/ton (-10 yuan/ton MoM) [51].

成交量持续萎缩 逢高减仓滚动操作 ——股指周报2025.04.21 客服中心 ：李卫红 联系方式：0371-68599157 电子邮箱：liwh_qh@ccnew.com 投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 投资咨询编号：Z0017812 | 本期观点 | | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、来自第一财经消息，随着近期"国家队"等多路资金的持续加仓，ETF市场总规模站上 作透明、交易便捷等特征，ETF也受到各类投资者青睐。 中证500周跌0.37%，中证1000周跌0.52%。成交方面，四大指数日均交易量交易前一周 | | | | | 了4万亿元关口。据Wind数据统计，截至4月20日，全市场ETF最新规模达到40116.17亿 | | | | | 元。其中，股票ETF是规模增长的主力军。与此同时，4月以来，场内ETF基金的资金净 | | | | | 流入额超过3200亿元。其中，沪深300ETF、中证500ETF、中证1000ETF等宽基产品最 | 操作上，市场量 | | | | 受青睐。在业内人士 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 【中原化工】 供应维持高位运行，需求支撑阶段性转弱 ——尿素周报2025.04.21 中原期货研究所：化工组 作者：刘培洋 研究助理：申文 执业证书编号：F0290318 执业证书编号： F03117458 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 0371-58620083 0371-58620081 liupy_qh@ccnew.com shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 01 周度观点汇总 1.1 尿素周度观点——供应维持高位运行，需求支撑阶段性转弱 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 供应：部分装置计划检修，供应存阶段性减量预期； | | | | | | 2. 需求：下游需求支撑边际转弱； | | | | | 3. 库存：上游尿素企业库存持续累积； | | | | | 4. 成本与利润：煤炭价格弱稳运行，尿素利润环比下降； | | | | | 5. 基差与价差：5-9价差偏弱震荡，05基差走强。 | | 保供稳价政策、 | | 6. 整体逻辑： | | UR2509合约关 | 新 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 政策预期回升，黑色系低位形成支撑 ——周报20250421 投 资 咨 询 编 号 ：Z0020978 研究所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58620083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 ：F03099603 | 本期观点——螺纹钢、热卷 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | | 供应：全国螺纹周产量229.22万吨（环比-1.36%，同比+3.23%），全国热卷周产 | | | | | 量314.4万吨（环比+0.35%，同比-2.71%）。螺纹钢产量下降，热卷产量微增。 | | | | | 消费：螺纹表观消费273.82万吨（环比+8.37%，同比-4.92%），热卷表观消费 | | | | | 324.16万吨（环比+2.80%，同比-0.40%）。螺纹钢表需回升明显，热卷需求小幅 | | | | | 增加。 | 单边： | | | | 库存：螺纹总库存733.16万吨（环比-5.73%，同比-27.75%），热卷 ...

2025 第（70）期 发布日期：2025-04-21 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/4/21 | 2025/4/18 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | | | 08:00 | 15:00 | | | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 39142.23 | 39669.39 | -527.160 | -1.329 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 16286.45 | 16307.16 | -20.710 | -0.127 | | 标普500 | | 5282.70 | 5275.70 | 7.0 | 0.133 | | 恒生指数 | | 21395.14 | 21056.98 | 338.160 | 1.606 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.66 | 1.63 | 0.026 | 1.591 | | 美元指数 | | 98.82 | 99.23 | -0.413 | -0.416 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.30 | 7.30 | 0 | 0 | | 主力合约 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Macro: China's Q1 economic data is good, but the impact of US tariff policies remains uncertain [4]. - Fundamental: The domestic copper concentrate processing fee is still negative. After the copper price fell from a high, terminal consumption recovered, and social inventories continued to decline. As of April 17, the copper inventory in major regions across the country dropped to 233,400 tons, with seven consecutive weeks of de - stocking [4]. - Overall Logic: The latest tariff developments between the EU, Japan, and the US affect the market. Market sentiment has eased, and the copper price may continue to rebound from a low level. The report suggests that for the SHFE copper 2506 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 78,500 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 73,000 yuan/ton [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macro: China's Q1 economic data is good, but the impact of US tariff policies remains uncertain [6]. - Fundamental: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is at a high level. The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises has continued to rise, and social inventories are in a seasonal de - stocking cycle. However, aluminum product exports have declined significantly, and domestic demand support needs attention [6]. - Overall Logic: After the US tariff increase was implemented, the bearish sentiment was released. The fundamental contradictions in the aluminum market are not significant, and the price may oscillate and consolidate this week. The report suggests that for the SHFE aluminum 2506 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 20,300 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 19,000 yuan/ton [6]. Alumina - Macro: China's Q1 economic data is good, but the impact of US tariff policies remains uncertain [8]. - Fundamental: Recently, domestic and foreign spot prices have continued to decline, and the exchange warehouse receipt volume has reached a new high. Some alumina enterprises have carried out production cuts and maintenance, but it does not affect the overall supply - demand pattern of alumina, which remains in a slight surplus [8]. - Overall Logic: As some loss - making enterprises carry out maintenance and production cuts, the alumina futures price may rebound to some extent, but the medium - term supply - demand surplus pattern has not changed. The report suggests that for the alumina 2509 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 3,000 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 2,700 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Copper Market**: The average price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Spot Market was 76,400 yuan/ton, with a change of +1,890 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month copper price was 9,188.5 US dollars/ton, with a change of +201 US dollars/ton. The SHFE copper warehouse receipt increased by 21,467 tons to 65,097 tons, and the international copper warehouse receipt increased by 12,485 tons to 11,930 tons [15]. - **Aluminum Market**: The average price of A00 aluminum in the Yangtze River Spot Market was 19,890 yuan/ton, with a change of +330 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month aluminum price was 2,365.5 US dollars/ton, with a change of +5 US dollars/ton. The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt increased by 12,769 tons to 92,475 tons [15]. - **Alumina Market**: The alumina spot price index was 2,888 yuan/ton, with a change of +17 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the active contract was 2,818 yuan/ton, with a change of +13 yuan/ton [15]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Domestic Market**: China's GDP in Q1 was 31.8758 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% at constant prices and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 1.2% compared to Q4 of the previous year. The national economy started steadily and continued to recover [19]. - **Foreign Market**: On April 17, local time, the European Central Bank decided to cut the three key interest rates by 25 basis points each. Since April 23, 2025, the eurozone deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate will be reduced to 2.25%, 2.40%, and 2.65% respectively. This is the 7th interest rate cut since June 2024 [21]. 3.3 Copper Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The processing fee TC continued to decline [28]. - **Futures Market**: The net long position of COMEX copper decreased [31]. - **Overseas Market**: The US dollar index continued to weaken [35]. - **Inventory**: As of April 17, the copper inventory in major domestic regions dropped to 233,400 tons, with seven consecutive weeks of de - stocking. The operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises increased slightly to 78.07% [39]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis - **Domestic Market**: The spot price remained at a premium [45]. - **Foreign Market**: The US dollar index weakened significantly [46]. - **Inventory**: The overall operating rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing industries increased by 0.2 percentage points to 62.4% as of April 17. SMM predicts that the operating rate may drop slightly by 0.6 percentage points to 61.8% this week [52]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit situation of electrolytic aluminum is affected by factors such as alumina, pre - baked anodes, and动力煤 prices [56]. 3.5 Alumina Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The spot price continued to be weak [60]. - **Futures Market**: The inventory futures remained at a high level [63]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of April 17, China's alumina production capacity was 107.4 million tons, the operating capacity was 82.7 million tons, and the operating rate was 81.74% (- 0.75%). The theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased slightly by 5,000 tons week - on - week [66]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of April 17, the industry cost was 3,340.31 yuan/ton (+3.93), and the industry profit was - 456.43 yuan/ton (- 26.03) [69].

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 价格低位整理，关注下方支撑 ——烧碱周报2025.04.21 执业证书编号：F0290318 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观：国内一季度经济数据较好，美国关税政策影响仍有不确定 | | | | | 性。 | 烧碱2509合约 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、供需面：华东市场供需端相对平稳，且本周临近月度签单，受山 | | 观政策及经 | | | 东区域液碱价格上行驱动支撑，预估本周华东液碱行情趋稳整理， | 上方参考压力 | 济数据变化； | | 烧碱 | 伴随非铝下游逐渐补货，低价逐渐取消，需求增加，预计烧碱价格 | 位2600元/吨 | 2、企业装置 | | | 存在上调可能性。 | 一线，下方支 | 检修情况； | | | 3、整体逻辑：近期山东现货价格回升带动近月合约出现一定反弹， | 撑位2400元/ | 3、下游需求 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the daily market tracking data of commodity indices, including macro - indicators, international and domestic futures contracts of various commodities, and provides morning meeting views on major varieties in different sectors such as agriculture, energy - chemical, industrial metals, and option - finance [2][4][12]. - In the macro - economic aspect, China's first - quarter financial and real - estate GDP showed growth, and various policies were introduced, including promoting Sino - Cambodian cooperation, attracting foreign investment, and supporting the construction of the modern commercial circulation system [7][8]. - In the market operation, different sectors have different trends. For example, the A - share market has mixed performance, and the futures market of various commodities has different price fluctuations and trading suggestions [21][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Macro - indicators**: On April 18, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index decreased by 1.329%, the Nasdaq Index decreased by 0.127%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.133%, the Hang Seng Index increased by 1.606%, SHIBOR overnight decreased by 4.333%, the US dollar index decreased by 0.054%, and the US dollar against the RMB (CFETS) remained unchanged [2]. - **International Futures Contracts**: COMEX gold decreased by 0.488%, COMEX silver decreased by 0.656%, LME copper increased by 0.549%, etc. [2]. - **Domestic Futures Contracts**: In the metal sector, gold decreased by 0.261%, silver decreased by 0.086%, etc.; in the chemical sector, coking coal decreased by 0.947%, coke decreased by 0.292%, etc.; in the agricultural product sector, yellow soybean No.1 decreased by 0.888%, yellow soybean No.2 increased by 0.145%, etc. [2][4]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - China and Cambodia agreed to build a new - era all - weather community with a shared future and announced 2025 as the "China - Cambodia Tourism Year" [7]. - China welcomes more US companies to invest in the Chinese market, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce is open to economic and trade consultations with the US and willing to cooperate with the EU to maintain the multilateral trading system [7][8]. - The Chinese government carried out various works, such as the application for pilot cities of the modern commercial circulation system, promoting the high - quality development of the private economy, and energy - saving and carbon - reduction diagnosis services in high - energy - consuming industries [8][9]. - China's first - quarter financial GDP increased by 3.8% year - on - year, and real - estate GDP increased by 1% year - on - year. In March, the unemployment rates of different age groups were announced [8]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The spot market is stable with increased supply. In the delivery game stage, focus on delivery costs and receiving willingness, and consider long - short spreads and rebound short - selling [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 16.95% from April 1 - 15 compared to the same period last month, and Brazil's April soybean export forecast was raised. The market is lightly traded, and palm oil imports are still at a loss. Suggest buying on dips [12]. - **Sugar**: On April 17, the sugar futures price increased by 1.04%. India's sugar production decreased by 18.4%. After breaking through the key resistance level, beware of the risk of Brazil's increased production. Consider light - position long - buying if it stabilizes above 5900 yuan/ton [12]. - **Corn**: On April 17, the corn futures price slightly decreased. Port inventories are at a historical high, but state - owned grain reserves' purchases and expected import decline support the market. Consider short - selling on rebounds, but beware of policy - supported rebounds [12]. - **Pigs**: The national pig price is stable. Supply is abundant, demand is weak, and the futures market is in a multi - empty game. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is stable with a slight increase. Supply pressure exists, and the futures price rebounds but has limited upside. Consider short - selling on rebounds [12][13]. 3.3.2 Energy - Chemical - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory of caustic soda decreased significantly. The 2505 contract continued to rebound from a low level, and the 2509 contract awaited new market drivers [15]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea price continued to decline slightly. Supply remained high, demand support weakened, and the short - term market might continue to fluctuate weakly [15]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The prices of copper and aluminum continued to consolidate. Copper inventories decreased for seven consecutive weeks, and aluminum rod inventories decreased. Pay attention to policy changes [17][18]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand fundamentals of alumina remained in surplus, and a bearish view was maintained in the medium - term [18]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased at night. The market had no significant inventory pressure, and prices were expected to fluctuate at low levels. Pay attention to export orders from April to May [18]. - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese ore prices continued to decline, and the supply - demand of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese was loose. They continued to fluctuate weakly [18]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market was weak, and the coke market was stable after a price increase. They were expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price of lithium carbonate continued to fluctuate weakly. Supply and demand both increased, but inventory pressure intensified. A rebound short - selling strategy was recommended [19]. 3.3.4 Option - Finance - **A - shares**: On April 17, the three major A - share indices had mixed performance. The real - estate and consumer sectors were active. The market was affected by US tariff policies, and it was recommended to reduce positions on rallies and use arbitrage strategies [21][22][23]. - **Options and Futures**: On April 17, the trading volume and implied volatility of various stock index futures and options had different changes. Trend investors were advised to defend, and volatility investors could consider buying straddles [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The "tariff" negative sentiment in the steel market has been partially released, but uncertainties still remain. The five major steel products continue to reduce inventory. The supply and demand of rebar both increase, with the production increase slightly faster than the demand increase, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. The demand for hot-rolled coils has decreased significantly, and the overall inventory reduction amplitude has further narrowed. There is pressure on export orders in the second quarter. Currently, the inventory contradiction of steel products is limited. After the steel price hit a new annual low, it has stabilized as the macro negative sentiment eases, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. Iron ore shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing in the short term, and the price tends to fluctuate. The supply of coking coal and coke is loose, and the two are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review After the Tomb-Sweeping Festival, the tariff impacted the commodity market, and the risk-aversion sentiment pushed up. The black series as a whole declined. The industry continued to reduce inventory. The increase in rebar production was greater than the increase in demand, and the inventory reduction rate slowed down slightly. The demand for hot-rolled coils declined significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Under the influence of macro factors, both the futures and spot prices declined, and the basis widened [9]. 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: The national weekly rebar production was 2323700 tons (a month-on-month increase of 1.63% and a year-on-year increase of 6.66%), and the weekly hot-rolled coil production was 3133000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 2.91% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.50%). The blast furnace production of rebar increased slightly, and the electric furnace production increased more significantly. The national blast furnace operating rate was 83.28% (a month-on-month increase of 0.18% and a year-on-year increase of 7.03%), and the electric furnace operating rate was 73.43% (a month-on-month decrease of 0.94% and a year-on-year increase of 9.86%) [14][17][20]. - **Profit**: The rebar profit was +108 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 8.48% and a year-on-year decrease of 36.47%), and the hot-rolled coil profit was +67 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 27.17% and a year-on-year decrease of 72.31%) [25]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of rebar was 2526800 tons (a month-on-month increase of 1.20% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.26%), and the apparent consumption of hot-rolled coils was 3153300 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 5.11% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.75%) [30]. - **Inventory**: The rebar mill inventory was 2146600 tons (a month-on-month increase of 3.64% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.32%), the social inventory was 5631000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 4.71% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.24%), and the total inventory was 7777600 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 2.54% and a year-on-year decrease of 27.89%). The hot-rolled coil mill inventory was 862300 tons (a month-on-month increase of 1.15% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.82%), the social inventory was 2980800 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 1.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.64%), and the total inventory was 3843100 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 0.53% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.53%) [35][40]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the weekly data showed that the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 9.74% month-on-month and 20.47% year-on-year, and the transaction land area in 100 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 52.60% month-on-month after the festival and 31.20% year-on-year. In the automotive sector, in March 2025, automobile production and sales reached 3.006 million and 2.915 million vehicles respectively, with month-on-month increases of 42.9% and 37% and year-on-year increases of 11.9% and 8.2% respectively. The cumulative automobile production and sales reached 7.561 million and 7.47 million vehicles respectively, with year-on-year increases of 14.5% and 11.2% respectively [43][46]. 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, and the arrival volume at ports increased significantly. The iron ore price index was 97.74 (a month-on-month decrease of 4.99% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.02%). The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 24.348 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 1.75% and a year-on-year increase of 26.85%), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 25.255 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 15.39% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.11%) [54]. - **Demand**: The daily pig iron production continued to increase, and the port clearance volume increased slightly. The daily pig iron production was 2.4022 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 14900 tons and a year-on-year increase of 154700 tons), the port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.1805 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 0.15% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.37%), and the inventory-to-sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 30.46 days (a month-on-month decrease of 1.84% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.88%) [58]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel enterprise inventory decreased. The iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 143.4102 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 0.88% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.01%), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 90.7713 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 1.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.60%), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 23.84 days (a month-on-month decrease of 2.26% and a year-on-year increase of 4.93%) [64]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic mines continued to increase, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal remained at a high level. The operating rate of coking coal mines was 87.16% (a month-on-month increase of 0.97% and a year-on-year increase of 2.29%), the operating rate of coal washing plants was 62.7% (a month-on-month increase of 3.18% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.32%), and the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 181000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 52.39% and a year-on-year increase of 116%) [70]. - **Demand**: The daily transaction rate of coking coal decreased. The daily transaction rate of coking coal auctions was 56.22% (a week-on-week decrease of 38.47% and a year-on-year decrease of 40.56%), and the weekly transaction rate was 92.37% (a week-on-week increase of 11.36% and a year-on-year increase of 34.45%) [73]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit improved month-on-month, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was -49 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 4 yuan/ton and a year-on-year increase of 106 yuan/ton), the capacity utilization rate was 72.96% (a month-on-month increase of 0.39% and a year-on-year increase of 14.23%), and the coke capacity utilization rate of steel mills was 87.44% [79]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The port inventory increased month-on-month, and the inventory accumulation of coking plants slowed down. The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 8.1453 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 1.31% and a year-on-year increase of 26.61%), the coking coal inventory of steel mills was 7.7947 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 1.26% and a year-on-year increase of 6.32%), and the coking coal port inventory was 3.4892 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 0.39% and a year-on-year increase of 71.19%) [85]. - **Coke Inventory**: The coking plants slightly reduced inventory, and the port inventory continued to increase. The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 659000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 0.71% and a year-on-year increase of 4.73%), the coke inventory of steel mills was 6.6799 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 0.73% and a year-on-year increase of 11.55%), and the coke port inventory was 2.3309 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 7.35% and a year-on-year increase of 12.44%) [91]. - **Spot Price**: The price of coking coal increased slightly, and the first round of price increase for coke has not been implemented yet. The price of low-sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1320 yuan/ton (a week-on-week increase of 30 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 430 yuan/ton), and the ex-factory price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Lvliang was 1150 yuan/ton (unchanged month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 350 yuan/ton) [97]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar has shrunk, and the spread between the 05 and 10 contracts of rebar has also shrunk. - The spread between the 05 and 09 contracts of iron ore has slightly widened, and the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar has shrunk [99][104].

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 指数先抑后扬 四月合约即将到期 ——股指期权周报2025.4.14 研究员 ：丁文 联系方式：0371-68599112 电子邮箱：dingw_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F3066473 投资咨询编号：Z0014838 上交所期权策略顾问：YZ16008281 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 趋势策略 | 波动率策略 | | | 清明假期后，市场受美关税政策大幅低开，A股本周先抑后扬，市场成交较节前放 | | | | | 大。沪深300指数日线探底回升，日三彩K线指标维持绿色；周线锤子线结构，周三彩K | | | | | 线指标维持绿色。IF期货当月合约贴水标的基差扩大，次月合约贴水当月合约基差扩大。 | | | | | 期权IO成交量放大，持仓量回升，期权成交量PCR先升后降，期权持仓量PCR先降后升， | | | | | 隐含波动率较清明节前上升，看涨、看跌期权最大持仓量行权价间距拉大。中证1000指 | | | | | 数先抑后扬，日三彩K线指标维持绿色；周 ...