投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 【中原化工】 关注夏季肥补货及出口兑现情况 ——尿素周报2025.06.09 中原期货研究所：化工组 作者：刘培洋 研究助理：申文 执业证书编号：F0290318 执业证书编号： F03117458 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 0371-58620083 0371-58620081 liupy_qh@ccnew.com shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 01 周度观点汇总 1.1 尿素周度观点——关注夏季肥补货及出口兑现情况 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1. 供应：装置检修变化有限，日产维持高位运行； | | | | | 2. 需求：夏季肥逐步进入收尾阶段； | | | | | 3. 库存：上游尿素企业延续累库，港口库存变化有限； | | | | | 4. 成本与利润：煤炭价格弱稳运行，尿素利润环比增加； | | | | | 5. 基差与价差：9-1价差偏弱运行，09基差走强。 | 短期尿素期价延 | 新 增 产 能 投 放 | | | 6. 整体逻辑： | 续偏弱 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 关税扰动多变，铜铝缺乏方向 ——铜铝周报2025.06.09 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观面：中美贸易谈判释放利多信号，美国最新非农数据好于预 | 沪铜2507合约 | | | | 期，市场降息预期下降。 | 上方参考压力 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、基本面：国内5月电解铜产量超预期增加，但预计从6月开始受检 | 位80000元/吨 | 观政策及经 | | | 修计划影响持续下降。受美国关税政策影响，LME去库延续，全球库 | | | | 铜 | 存继续转移至美国市场，结构性紧张或支撑铜价。 | 一线，下方参 | 济数据变化； | | | 3、整体逻辑：铜矿紧张预期和美国对铜征收关税预期继续支持铜价， | 考支撑位 | 2、国外铜矿 | | | | 76000元/吨一 | 供应因素。 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The macro aspect shows that the Sino-US trade negotiations have released positive signals, and their progress should be monitored. In terms of supply and demand, there were many device overhauls in the caustic soda market at the beginning of June. The liquid caustic soda markets in Shandong and East China were both driven by "supply contraction", and the spot quotes were firm. However, the overall scale of overhauls in June was smaller than that of the previous month, and there was still pressure from new production capacity, which suppressed the market. During the week, the terminal demand showed differentiation. The main downstream in Shandong could support the price, but the non-aluminum market resisted high prices, and terminal procurement was inactive. Overall, the supply and demand situation in the liquid caustic soda market has changed little and lacks support. After the caustic soda 2509 contract broke through the lower limit, it should be treated with a bearish mindset. The upper reference pressure level for the caustic soda 2509 contract is around 2,500 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is around 2,200 yuan/ton [4]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained stable. The 32% liquid caustic soda basis in Shandong widened. From May 30 to June 5, 2025, the price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong remained at 880 yuan, the price of 50% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda decreased by 10 yuan to 1,410 yuan with a decline of -0.7%, and the price of 99% caustic soda flakes remained at 3,350 yuan. The price of light soda ash decreased by 50 yuan to 1,350 yuan with a decline of -3.57%, the price of alumina increased by 5 yuan to 3,275 yuan with an increase of 0.15%, the price of pulp decreased by 50 yuan to 6,150 yuan with a decline of -0.81%, the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 600 yuan to 69,000 yuan with a decline of -0.86%, while the prices of sea salt, viscose staple fiber, and ternary precursor remained unchanged [9][12][18]. - **Futures Market**: Relevant data on the closing prices of the active contracts of caustic soda, soda ash, alumina, PVC, and the number of warehouse receipts are presented [16]. 02 Market Analysis - **Supply Side - Production and Operating Rate**: From May 30 to June 5, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.5%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%. The completion of device overhauls in the Northwest and Central China drove up the load, while new device overhauls and production cuts in North China and South China led to a decline in the load. The load in the Northwest increased by 2.2% to 90.5%, and in Central China, it increased by 6.2% to 90.2%. In North China, the load decreased by 3.7% to 77.1%, and in South China, it decreased by 4.6% to 83.1%. The load in Shandong decreased by 3.3% to 86.4%. It is estimated that the caustic soda capacity utilization rate this week will be around 83.1%, and the weekly output will be around 800,600 tons. Multiple enterprises in North China and South China had device overhauls during the reporting period [20][23]. - **Downstream - Alumina**: The profit margin of alumina has widened, increasing the production willingness of enterprises. Some enterprises completed their overhauls during the reporting period and resumed normal production. As of June 5, the built capacity of alumina in China was 112.4 million tons, the operating capacity was 86.55 million tons, and the operating rate was 77.00% [25]. - **Inventory**: As of June 5, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 382,100 wet tons, a month-on-month decrease of -2.67% and a year-on-year increase of 5.52%. The capacity utilization ratio of the national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 23.22%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.06%. The capacity utilization ratios in the Northwest, North China, and East China decreased month-on-month, while those in Central China, Northeast China, South China, and Southwest China increased month-on-month. In North China, after continuous price increases in the Shandong market, high-price non-aluminum purchases decreased. After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday and due to factors such as inventory accumulation in overhauled devices, some areas experienced a slight increase in inventory. However, most enterprises cleared their inventories at the end of the month, driving down the inventory in North China. In East China, the regional supply decreased, non-aluminum industries replenished their inventories at the end and beginning of the month, and the export orders were shipped as needed, resulting in a decline in inventory [30]. - **Liquid Chlorine**: As of June 5, 2025, the average price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 1 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 101%. A chlor-alkali enterprise in Zibo, Shandong entered overhaul during the week, reducing the market supply and driving up the price of liquid chlorine in the surrounding areas. However, the chlorine-consuming downstream devices in Liaocheng, Shandong were unstable during the week, and some production enterprises reduced their loads to promote sales. As of June 5, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises was 80.72%, a month-on-month increase of 2.53% and a year-on-year increase of 5.56%. Among them, the utilization rate of the calcium carbide method was 82.31%, a month-on-month increase of 4.10% and a year-on-year increase of 8.49%; the utilization rate of the ethylene method was 76.53%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.59% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.56%. The average weekly profit of Shandong chlor-alkali enterprises was 635 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 28.28% [34][35].

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（101）期 发布日期：2025-06-09 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究所 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/6/9 | 2025/6/8 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 778.00 | 757.00 | 21.0 | 2.774 | | | 焦炭 | 1,336.00 | 1,342.00 | -6.0 | -0.447 | | | 天然橡胶 | 13,605.00 | 13,545.00 | 60.0 | 0.443 | | | 20号胶 | 11,970.00 | 11,965.00 | 5.0 | 0.042 | | | 塑料 | 7,078.00 | 7,034.00 | 44.0 | 0.62 ...

公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（99）期 发布日期：2025-06-05 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 中原期货研究所 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/6/5 | 2025/6/4 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 757.00 | 768.00 | -11.0 | -1.432 | | | 焦炭 | 1,342.50 | 1,367.50 | -25.0 | -1.828 | | | 天然橡胶 | 13,530.00 | 13,655.00 | -125.0 | -0.915 | | | 20号胶 | 11,830.00 | 12,020.00 | -190.0 | -1.581 | | | 朝彩 | 7,026.00 | 7,049.00 | -2 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Steel Tariff Increase, Steel Prices Under Pressure - Weekly Report 20250603 [1] - Researcher: Lin Na [2] - Contact Information: Email: linna_qh@ccnew.com; Phone: 0371 - 58620083 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is facing downward pressure due to the increase in import steel tariffs and the approaching of the off - season. Steel prices are expected to continue to decline in the short term. Iron ore, coking coal, and coke are also expected to show weak trends due to supply - demand imbalances [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 01. Market Review - Steel prices have continuously declined due to the intensification of overseas risk disturbances and the approaching of the off - season. Futures prices have dropped significantly, and the basis has widened [9]. - Spot prices of various steel products, iron ore, coking coal, and coke have all decreased. The long - and short - position holdings of futures contracts have changed, and inventory has generally decreased [9]. 02. Steel Supply - Demand Analysis Production - National weekly production of rebar decreased by 2.58% week - on - week to 225.51 million tons, and that of hot - rolled coil increased by 4.54% week - on - week to 319.55 million tons [15][17]. - Rebar production from blast furnaces and electric furnaces both decreased, with blast furnace production at 200.12 million tons (down 1.22% week - on - week) and electric furnace production at 25.39 million tons (down 12.08% week - on - week) [22]. Operating Rate - The blast furnace operating rate remained stable at 83.87% (up 0.22% week - on - week), and the electric furnace operating rate increased to 77.78% (up 0.78% week - on - week) [27]. Profit - Rebar profit slightly increased to +90 yuan/ton (up 2.27% week - on - week), while hot - rolled coil profit decreased to +33 yuan/ton (down 17.5% week - on - week) [31]. Demand - Rebar apparent consumption increased by 0.63% week - on - week to 248.68 million tons, and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption increased by 4.43% week - on - week to 326.93 million tons [36]. Inventory - Rebar total inventory decreased by 3.83% week - on - week to 581.05 million tons, with both factory and social inventories decreasing. Hot - rolled coil total inventory decreased by 2.17% week - on - week to 332.81 million tons, with both factory and social inventories decreasing [40][45]. Downstream Industries - In the real estate market, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 2.12% week - on - week, and the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 5.97% week - on - week [48]. - In April 2025, automobile production and sales decreased by 12.9% and 11.2% month - on - month respectively, but increased by 8.9% and 9.8% year - on - year respectively [51]. 03. Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - The shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 3.72% week - on - week to 2830.6 million tons, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 17.91% week - on - week to 2536.5 million tons [58]. Demand - Daily hot metal production decreased by 1.69 million tons week - on - week to 241.91 million tons, and the port clearance volume of iron ore decreased by 0.13% week - on - week to 326.68 million tons [63]. Inventory - Iron ore inventory at 45 ports decreased by 0.87% week - on - week to 13866.58 million tons, and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 1.92% week - on - week to 8754.33 million tons [69]. 04. Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - The operating rate of coking coal mines decreased by 0.94% week - on - week to 85.49%, and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume increased by 29.10% week - on - week to 14.97 million tons [75]. - The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants decreased by 24 yuan/ton week - on - week to - 39 yuan/ton, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.28% week - on - week to 75.66% [83]. Demand - The daily hot metal production was 241.91 million tons (down 1.69 million tons week - on - week) [5]. Inventory - Coking coal inventory in independent coking plants decreased by 2.88% week - on - week to 716.64 million tons, and coking coal inventory in ports increased by 0.51% week - on - week to 303.09 million tons [89]. - Coke inventory in independent coking plants increased by 7.15% week - on - week to 78.33 million tons, and coke inventory in ports decreased by 2.65% week - on - week to 217.18 million tons [95]. Spot Price - Coking coal prices showed a weak trend, and the second - round price reduction of coke was implemented [96]. 05. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil has widened, and the spread between the 10 - 01 contracts of rebar has widened [103]. - The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore has slightly widened, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar has slightly narrowed [106].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents macro news, price changes of various futures contracts, and morning meeting views on major varieties, offering a comprehensive analysis of the market situation across multiple industries [4][7][13]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Chemical Industry Futures - On June 4, 2025, among chemical futures, most contracts showed price increases. For example, the price of coking coal rose by 19.50 to 738.50, with a growth rate of 2.712%; the price of coke increased by 21.0 to 1,320.00, a growth of 1.617%. However, some contracts declined, such as 20 - number rubber, which dropped by 30.0 to 11,780.00, a decrease of 0.254% [4]. 2. Agricultural Product Futures - In the agricultural product futures market, prices also showed mixed trends. For instance, the price of No. 1 yellow soybean decreased by 12.0 to 4,122.00, a decline of 0.290%, while the price of No. 2 yellow soybean rose by 20.0 to 3,556.00, an increase of 0.566% [4]. 3. Macro News - The US accused China of violating the Geneva talks consensus, but China firmly opposed this and demanded the US to correct its actions [7]. - US President Trump announced an increase in the import tariffs on steel, aluminum, and their derivatives from 25% to 50%, effective from June 4, 2025 [7]. - Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with a Japanese delegation, emphasizing the need to strengthen Sino - Japanese industrial cooperation [7]. - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao held talks with the EU Commissioner, focusing on urgent and important issues in China - EU economic and trade cooperation [8]. - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May 2025 was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [8]. - Stablecoins have become a focus among brokerage analysts, with many related phone conferences and research reports [8]. - China's domestic refined oil prices saw the "fourth increase" this year, with gasoline and diesel prices per ton increasing by 65 yuan and 60 yuan respectively [8]. - China officially released a water conservancy standard AI large - model, filling the gap in intelligent tools in the water conservancy standardization field [9]. 4. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties a. Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The spot market has stabilized. With weak demand from traders and the approaching end of oil mill acquisitions, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. - Oils and Fats: There is a lack of new positive drivers, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. - Sugar: With improved weather in Brazil's main sugar - producing areas and increased domestic imports, the market supply pressure is significant. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [13]. - Corn: The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price has fallen below the previous support level, and it is recommended to pay attention to the technical support in the 2300 - 2317 range [13]. - Hogs: The price in the northern market is relatively stable, while in the southern market, there is limited room for price movement. The futures contract is oscillating around 13,500 [13][15]. - Eggs: The spot price is stable, but with expected weakening demand after the holiday and quality issues, the price is under pressure. The futures market is also showing a weak trend [15]. b. Energy and Chemicals - Urea: With high supply and slow - growing agricultural demand, the price is under pressure in the short term. However, export expectations and summer fertilizer replenishment may provide some support [15]. - Caustic Soda: With less maintenance of caustic soda plants in June and weakening terminal demand, the market is bearish [15]. - Coking Coal: The online auction of coking coal has seen many unsuccessful bids, and prices have dropped significantly. The market is cautious, and the medium - term downward trend remains unchanged [15]. c. Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: Affected by the US tariff increase and a weakening US dollar, the prices of copper and aluminum are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, with aluminum under more pressure [17]. - Alumina: Due to reduced supply from maintenance and production cuts, the spot price is relatively strong. The 2509 contract may fluctuate around 3000, but there is still an expectation of medium - term oversupply [17]. - Steel: Steel prices are showing a downward trend, and the market is cautious due to the approaching high - temperature and rainy season. The medium - term downward trend remains unchanged [17]. - Ferroalloys: After the Dragon Boat Festival, ferroalloys continued to decline. With limited production cuts on the supply side, weak demand in the off - season, and expected weakening costs, they are expected to remain bearish [17]. - Lithium Carbonate: With significant supply pressure and weak demand, the price is expected to remain within the 58,000 - 61,000 range. It is recommended to sell short when the price rebounds [19]. d. Option Finance - Stock Index: On June 3, A - share indexes rebounded slightly. The market is expected to show index oscillations in June, with medium - and large - cap stocks potentially outperforming. It is recommended to take a defensive approach in trading [19]. - Options: On June 3, A - share indexes rose slightly. The futures and options markets showed different trends, and investors are advised to take a defensive approach and consider buying wide - straddle options to bet on increased volatility [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market in June is expected to have a certain downward pressure in the short term due to disturbing factors, but the bottom is relatively solid, and subsequent market trends will likely be mainly structural. Institutions suggest using dividend assets as the base position and also considering growth and consumption sectors. They are optimistic about banks, the computing power industry chain, card-based collectibles, and innovative drugs [6]. - The Chinese economy in the second quarter is expected to continue a stable trend under the continuous efforts of growth-stabilizing policies, but the foundation for economic recovery needs to be consolidated, and policies need to be further strengthened [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - The US accused China of violating the consensus of the Geneva economic and trade talks. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce firmly rejected the unreasonable accusation, urging the US to correct its wrong actions and jointly maintain the consensus [6]. - The EU expressed regret over the US decision to raise steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% starting from June 4th, which increases economic uncertainty across the Atlantic. Negotiations between the two sides are ongoing [6]. - China's manufacturing PMI in May increased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month, and the export container freight rate index rebounded. Experts believe that the Chinese economy in the second quarter is expected to maintain a stable trend, but policy support is still needed [7]. - The Chinese logistics industry showed strong resilience in the first four months of the year, with the total social logistics volume reaching 115.3 trillion yuan from January to April, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [7]. - During the Dragon Boat Festival, the estimated cross-regional passenger flow in China reached 6.57 billion person-times, with an average daily flow of 2.19 billion person-times, a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [7]. - The "involutionary" competition in the automotive industry has led to a continuous decline in the profit margin of the industry, from 4.3% in 2024 to 3.9% in the first quarter of this year, and may also affect the quality of parts [8]. 3.2 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.2.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The peanut spot market has stabilized after a rise. The demand from traders and oil mills is weakening. The spot market has strong bottom support, but the futures market is expected to be weak and volatile [11]. - Oils: The trading volume of oils decreased on May 30th. The palm oil export from Malaysia in May increased by 17.9% compared to the same period last month, and about 17% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought. The oil market lacks new positive drivers and is expected to be weak and volatile [11]. - Sugar: On May 30th, the sugar futures main contract showed a narrow and weak trend. The supply in Brazil has improved, and the international raw sugar has rebounded. The domestic spot price is stable, but the increase in imports is suppressing market sentiment. It is recommended to maintain a short-term bearish view [11]. - Corn: On May 30th, the corn main contract showed a trend of increasing prices with decreasing positions. The supply in the northern ports is still high, and the demand is affected by wheat substitution. Technically, it is necessary to pay attention to the resistance level at 2340 yuan. It is recommended to try long positions lightly with support at 2330 yuan [11]. - Hogs: During the Dragon Boat Festival, the hog price in China remained stable. The price in the north may weaken due to the recovery of supply, and the price in the south has limited room for decline or increase. The futures main contract is oscillating around 13,500 [11][13]. - Eggs: During the Dragon Boat Festival, the egg spot price remained stable. After the festival, the demand is expected to weaken, and the price will be under pressure. The futures market still faces mid - term capacity pressure [13]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The domestic urea market price is stable. The daily production is high, and the inventory of upstream enterprises is increasing. The demand for summer fertilizers is approaching the end, but there is still replenishment demand. The price is under short - term pressure but supported by export expectations [13]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong and the warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange remained unchanged on May 30th. The supply in Shandong is expected to decrease in June, and the market in East China is expected to be firm. The caustic soda 2509 contract continues to operate at a low level [13]. - Coking Coal: The supply of coking coal and coke is sufficient, and the terminal demand is seasonally weakening. The price of coking coal auctions is falling, and the price of coke is expected to decline further. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be under pressure and weaken [13][15]. 3.2.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: On May 30th, the spot prices of copper and aluminum decreased. The copper and aluminum inventories are decreasing, but the overseas tariff risk still exists, and the prices are expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate [15]. - Alumina: On May 30th, the spot price of alumina increased slightly. The production capacity is recovering, and the supply pressure is easing. The domestic import window is gradually opening. The spot price is firm, but there is an expectation of medium - term oversupply. The alumina 2509 contract rebounds from a low level and may fluctuate around 3000 [15]. - Steel: During the holiday, the tariff risk continued, and the market sentiment was affected. The trading volume of steel decreased, and the supply - demand structure may weaken. The steel price is expected to be under pressure and weaken after the festival [15]. - Ferroalloys: The fundamentals of ferroalloys changed little last week, but the prices were weak. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is not strong, and it is recommended not to chase short positions. The cost of silicomanganese is falling, and the supply - demand of alloys is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the overall trend of the black series [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: On May 30th, the lithium carbonate futures main contract showed an oscillating upward trend, but the trading volume decreased. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is close to the low - level range this year, and the volatility is increasing. It is recommended to operate within the range of 59,000 - 60,500 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index: On May 30th, the A - share market adjusted, and the trading volume exceeded 1.1 trillion yuan. The European and American stock markets had mixed performances on Monday. The impact of the previous tariff friction on the market has been digested, and the market may have short - term structural fluctuations. The large - cap stocks may be relatively dominant in the future. The technology sector is worth attention. It is recommended to participate in long positions around the gap on May 7th and consider selling straddle options [19][20][21]. - Options: On May 29th, the A - share market rose, and the trading volume increased. The basis of stock index futures decreased, and the implied volatility of options changed. Trend investors are advised to defend, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddle options after the volatility decreases [21].

Report Summary 1. Market Data Summary - **Stock Indices**: On May 30, 2025, major US stock indices (Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P 500) and the Hang Seng Index showed gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising 1.355%. The US dollar index decreased by 0.114% [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: COMEX gold and silver prices increased, while most base metals on the LME had mixed performance. In the domestic market, precious metals generally rose, while base metals mostly declined. Energy - related commodities like NYMEX crude and ICE Brent crude dropped, and most domestic chemical and agricultural products also showed price fluctuations [2][4]. 2. Macro - Economic News - **Legal and Trade**: The US Federal Appellate Court suspended a ruling against Trump's global tariffs. The US has cut off some channels for selling semiconductor design software to China. China's Ministry of Commerce responded to Sino - US economic and trade consultations and EU's anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires [7][8]. - **Economic Policies**: The Chinese government issued a plan to improve the market - based allocation system for resource and environmental elements. The Fed Chair met with Trump to discuss economic development without discussing monetary policy expectations [7][9]. - **Economic Data**: Shanghai's foreign trade in the first four months of this year increased by 1%, with exports growing 13.8%. China's large - scale light industry enterprises' revenue and profit increased by 4.9% and 3.8% respectively in the first four months [8]. 3. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: Spot supply is low due to farming seasons, prices are stable with an upward bias. Traders are cautious about chasing prices up, and attention should be paid to oil mills' purchase stops and supply rhythm [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: Market trading volume decreased significantly. Weather conditions in the US and Australia are favorable for oilseed production, and the market lacks upward momentum, suggesting a weak and volatile outlook [12]. - **Sugar**: The price has broken through the key support level. Fundamentally, supply pressure exists, and it is recommended to short at high prices, paying attention to support levels [12]. - **Corn**: Supply pressure remains, and demand is weak. Technically, the price is in a range, and it is advisable to wait and see, with the possibility of a long - position trial if the resistance is broken [12]. - **Pigs**: Spot prices stabilized and rebounded. The futures contract is oscillating around 13,500, waiting for a direction [12]. - **Eggs**: Spot prices are stable in the short - term but face medium - term pressure due to capacity and weather factors [14]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: In Shandong, the price is expected to be stable in the short - term, and the 2509 contract continues to trade at a low level [14]. - **Urea**: Supply is high, demand growth is slow, and the price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to agricultural demand replenishment and export fulfillment [14]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Overseas tariff risks remain, and prices are oscillating. Copper inventories are decreasing, and aluminum inventories also declined [14]. - **Alumina**: Spot prices are firm, but there is a medium - term surplus expectation. The 2509 contract may fluctuate around 3000 [16]. - **Steel Products**: The sentiment in the spot market has improved, and inventories are decreasing. However, due to macro - uncertainties, steel prices are in a low - level oscillation, and it is advisable to hold a light position before the holiday [16]. - **Silicon - based Alloys**: They are in a weak trend. Silicon iron lacks self - driving forces, and silicon manganese is affected by overseas ore supply and cost factors [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices are weakening due to reduced iron production and pessimistic market sentiment [18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The price has broken through the support level, and it is recommended to hold short positions while being cautious of rebounds [18]. 3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Indices**: A - share indices rebounded on May 29. Before the holiday, it is necessary to control risks. Attention should be paid to the upcoming PMI data and holiday consumption data [18][19]. - **Options**: On May 29, A - share indices rose, and futures indices showed different trends in basis and volume. Trend investors should be defensive, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddles after volatility reduction [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the financial market, including macro - economic indicators, commodity prices, and major news events. It also offers trading suggestions for various commodities and financial instruments based on their current market conditions and fundamentals [2][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Stock Indices**: On May 29, 2025, major global stock indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Index, NASDAQ Index, S&P 500, and Hang Seng Index all declined, with the Dow Jones Industrial Index dropping 0.578% to 42098.70 [2]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: SHIBOR overnight decreased by 2.824% to 1.41, while the US dollar index rose 0.542% to 100.44. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate remained unchanged [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: In the international market, COMEX gold rose 0.385% to 3312.40, while LME tin dropped 2.823% to 31495.00. In the domestic market, most commodities showed price fluctuations, with some rising and some falling [2][4]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Fed meeting minutes indicated that policymakers believe the economy faces higher uncertainty and should be cautious about interest - rate cuts, waiting for the impact of Trump's tariff policies to become clearer. Fed official Williams emphasized the importance of keeping inflation expectations stable [6][7]. - **International Trade and Policy**: China will implement a visa - free policy for ordinary passport holders from Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain from June 9, 2025, to June 8, 2026. The US - China tariff reduction may support the profit growth of relevant export industries in the second quarter, but long - term external demand remains uncertain [7]. - **Industry News**: OPEC+ agreed to maintain the current oil production quota plan and will discuss a potential 411,000 - barrel - per - day increase in July production on May 31. Saudi Arabia's stock market has been hit by falling oil prices, and its budget requires an oil price of $96 per barrel [7][8]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: Due to factors like the busy farming season, peanut supply is low, and prices are stable with an upward trend. However, traders are not eager to buy at high prices. It is not recommended to chase high prices in the futures market [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats market lacks upward momentum. The weather in the US Midwest is favorable for sown areas, and Australia's oilseed - growing regions are expected to have normal weather conditions. It is advisable to view the market as weakly volatile [12]. - **Sugar**: The sugar futures price is in a weak - oscillating trend. Brazil's improved weather has accelerated sugarcane harvesting, and the domestic market is pressured by increased imports and uncertain consumption. It is recommended to wait for a clear direction [12]. - **Corn**: The corn market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The reduction of remaining grain in production areas supports prices, but the substitution effect of wheat and weak demand are concerns. It is recommended to trade within the 2300 - 2350 yuan range [12]. - **Pigs**: The national pig price has stabilized and rebounded. Farmers are reluctant to sell, and with the approaching Dragon Boat Festival, procurement demand has increased. The futures market is waiting for a direction [12]. - **Eggs**: The egg spot price is stable. Although there is short - term support from domestic sales in production areas, the long - term outlook remains weak due to factors such as high - age laying hens and weather conditions [12]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong is expected to remain stable in the short term. The market has digested the expected June device maintenance, and non - aluminum downstream industries are restocking due to rigid demand [13]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea price has slightly increased, but new orders are average. High supply pressure persists, and it is necessary to monitor agricultural demand replenishment and export fulfillment [13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Overseas tariff risks still exist, and the prices of copper and aluminum continue to oscillate. The inventory of copper has decreased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum has also declined [13][15]. - **Alumina**: Affected by concentrated maintenance and production cuts, the supply of alumina is expected to remain tight. The 2509 contract has rebounded from a low level, and attention should be paid to the 3200 - 3300 yuan/ton pressure range [15]. - **Steel Products**: The trading volume in the steel spot market is weak, and prices are generally down. The total inventory of rebar has slightly increased, while the total inventory of hot - rolled coils has decreased. The black - metal sector is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [14][15]. - **Ferroalloys**: The decline of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese has slowed down. The supply of ferrosilicon decreased last week, and the demand increased. Ferromanganese is affected by overseas ore supply expectations, and the cost center has shifted down [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The production of coking coal has been restricted, and the second - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented. The market is bearish, and the prices of coking coal and coke are under pressure [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate futures is in a weak - oscillating state. The cost support has shifted down, and demand is structurally differentiated. It is recommended that short - position holders pay attention to the key support level of 59,500 yuan [17]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index**: On May 28, A - share indices oscillated and adjusted, with more stocks falling than rising. The new consumption field has performed well, but it may face short - term pressure due to high valuations. The overall trend of the Shanghai Composite Index may be oscillating consolidation, and short - term attention should be paid to the gap on May 7 [17][18]. - **Options**: For trend investors, a defensive strategy is recommended. Volatility investors can buy wide - straddle options after the volatility decreases to bet on an increase in volatility [19].