投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 纯碱玻璃周报——2025.04.14 中原期货研究所：化工组 | 作者：刘培洋 | 研究助理：申文 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：F0290318 | 执业证书编号： F03117458 | | 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 | 0371-58620081 | | liupy_qh@ccnew.com | shenwen_qh@ccnew.com | 01 周度观点汇总 3 1.1 纯碱周度观点——供应压力明显回升，需求改善较为有限 品种 主要逻辑 策略建议 风险提示 纯碱 1.供应 装置开工率88.05%（+2.96%），氨碱法87.32%（环比-0.80%），联碱法85.13%（+5.42%)；周 产量73.77万吨（+2.47万吨），轻碱产量33.38万吨（+0.99万吨），重碱产量40.39万吨（+1.48 万吨）。 2.需求 纯碱表需74.61万吨（+10.45万吨），轻碱表需32.47万吨（+1.29万吨），重碱表需42.14万 吨（+9.71万吨）。 3.库存 纯碱企业库存169.30万吨（-0.84万吨），轻碱库存86.35万 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 综合施策应对挑战 关注阶段反弹机会 ——股指周报2025.04.14 01 02 Content 行情回顾 宏观分析 03 市场情绪 01 行情回顾 周度行情回顾 客服中心 ：李卫红 联系方式：0371-68599157 电子邮箱：liwh_qh@ccnew.com 投资咨询编号：Z0017812 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、香港万得通讯社报道，4月13日，商务部新闻发言人就美方豁免部分产品的"对等关 中方对中美经贸关系的立场是一贯的。贸易战没有赢家，保护主义没有出路。中国有 | 操作上，沪指在前 回补，或依旧面临 注意减仓后，注意 不 跌 破 前 | | | | 税"答记者问。有记者问：美方近日宣布豁免部分产品"对等关税"，中方对此有何评价？ | | | | | 答：美东时间4月12日，美方公布相关备忘录，豁免计算机、智能手机、半导体制造设 | | | | | 备、集成电路等部分产品的"对等关税"，中方正在对有关影响进行评估。 | | | | | 我们注意到，这 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 【中原化工】 关注夏季肥表现及宏观影响 ——尿素周报2025.04.14 中原期货研究所：化工组 作者：刘培洋 研究助理：申文 执业证书编号：F0290318 执业证书编号： F03117458 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 0371-58620083 0371-58620081 liupy_qh@ccnew.com shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 01 周度观点汇总 3 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2019-11-25 2020-2-12 2020-5-1 2020-7-19 2020-10-6 2020-12-24 2021-3-13 2021-5-31 2021-8-18 2021-11-5 2022-1-23 2022-4-12 2022-6-30 2022-9-17 2022-12-5 2023-2-22 2023-5-12 2023-7-30 2023-10-17 2024-1-4 2024-3-23 2024-6-10 2024-8-28 2024-11-15 2025-2-2 2025-4-22 2025-7 ...

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（65）期 发布日期：2025-04-14 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/4/14 08:00 | 2025/4/11 15:00 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 40212.71 | 39593.66 | 619.050 | 1.564 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 16724.46 | 16387.31 | 337.150 | 2.057 | | 标普500 | | 5363.36 | 5268.05 | 95.310 | 1.809 | | 恒生指数 | | 20914.69 | 20681.78 | 232.910 | 1.126 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.61 | 1.61 | 0.002 | 0.124 | | 美元指数 | | 99.96 | 99.79 | 0.174 | 0.174 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.32 | 7.32 | 0 | 0 | | 主力合约 | | ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 市场价格走弱，关注下方支撑 ——烧碱周报2025.04.14 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观：美国关税政策端利空逐步被市场消化，后续重点关注关税 | | | | | 谈判情况以及关税政策对经济的影响情况。 | | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、供需面：华东市场本周部分氯碱装置进入检修，但整体影响程度 | 烧碱2505合约 | 观政策及经 | | | 相对有限，市场恐跌氛围延续，预估液碱行情仍偏弱下行。目前 | 上方参考压力 | 济数据变化； | | 烧碱 | 部分耗氯下游亏损导致需求减弱下，液氯短期看跌，考虑氯碱成本 | 位2500元/吨 | 2、企业装置 | | | 利润，预计后期烧碱跌幅缩小，观望供应端回归后市场的反应，短 | 一线，下方支 | | | | | | 检修情况； | | | 期内走 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 关税政策不断变化，引领市场剧烈波动 ——铜铝周报2025.04.14 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观面：美国关税政策端利空逐步被市场消化，后续重点关注关 | 沪铜2506合约 | | | | 税谈判情况以及关税政策对经济的影响情况。 | 上方参考压力 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、基本面：当前国内铜精矿加工费仍然处于负值，铜价高位回落后， | 位78500元/吨 | 观政策及经 | | 铜 | 终端消费有所恢复，社会库存延续性去库；截至4月10日，全国主流 | 一线，下方参 | 济数据变化； | | | 地区铜库存降至26.72万吨，连续六周去库。 | 考支撑位 | 2、国外铜矿 | | | 3、整体逻辑：清明节后铜价大跌已经兑现美国关税利空影响，但关 | 73000元/吨一 | 供应因素。 | ...

中原期货研究所 2025 第（64）期 发布日期：2025-04-11 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/4/11 08:00 | 2025/4/10 15:00 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 39593.66 | 40608.45 | -1014.790 | -2.499 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 16387.31 | 17124.97 | -737.660 | -4.308 | | 标普500 | | 5268.05 | 5456.90 | -188.850 | -3.461 | | 恒生指数 | | 20681.78 | 20264.49 | 417.290 | 2.059 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.61 | 1.74 | -0.134 | -7.697 | | 美元指数 | | 100.68 | 100.94 | -0.257 | -0.255 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.34 | 7.34 | 0 | 0 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global financial and commodity markets are significantly affected by macro - events such as the Sino - US trade tariff adjustment and the EU's counter - tariff measures against the US. The market sentiment is volatile, and different asset classes show various trends. In the short term, the market may experience high - volatility fluctuations, and investors are advised to wait for the situation to become clearer [7][8][21][23] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Tracking - **Stock Indexes**: On April 10, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index was at 40608.45, up 7.87% from the previous trading day; the Nasdaq Index was at 17124.97, up 12.163%; the S&P 500 was at 5456.90, up 9.515%; the Hang Seng Index was at 20264.49, up 0.68% [2] - **Commodity Futures**: Most commodity futures showed price changes. For example, COMEX gold rose 3.385% to $3099.80, and NYMEX crude oil rose 7.694% to $62.71 [2] - **Domestic Futures**: In the domestic market, metals, chemicals, and agricultural products also had different price fluctuations. For instance, domestic gold rose 0.53% to 732 yuan/gram, and methanol rose 0.85% to 2372 yuan/ton [2][4] 2. Macro - News - **Tariff Adjustment**: The State Council Tariff Commission of China increased the additional tariff rate on all imported goods originating from the US from 34% to 84% starting from 12:01 on April 10. The EU voted to impose a 25% tariff on US - imported products in retaliation for the US's tariff on EU steel and aluminum [7][8] - **Policy Statements**: China issued a white paper clarifying its stance on Sino - US economic and trade relations, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that it would firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. The Chinese government emphasized the implementation of more proactive macro - policies, expanding domestic demand, and stimulating the vitality of business entities [7][8] 3. Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The spot market is in a stalemate. Affected by the tariff increase on US - origin goods, the peanut market is expected to rise with oilseeds and meal, and long - spread arbitrage can be considered [13] - **Sugar**: The supply side has improved rainfall in Brazil, and the domestic syrup import suspension provides support. The demand side has good domestic sugar sales, but the short - term inventory pressure remains. It is recommended to use 6000 yuan as the key dividing line for trading [13] - **Pigs**: The national pig price is stable. The market shows an oversupply and weak demand situation, and the spot price is expected to remain stable and slightly strong [13] - **Eggs**: The spot price has rebounded due to post - holiday restocking and pre - May Day stocking, but the price increase space is limited due to supply pressure. Attention can be paid to short - selling opportunities during the rebound [15] 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The market atmosphere is weakening. The 2505 contract of caustic soda may continue to operate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of last year's low [15] - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is declining. The supply is high, and the downstream demand is slowing down. The short - term price may continue to fluctuate at a high level [15] 3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Affected by the Sino - US trade friction, the prices of copper and aluminum continue to decline. The inventory of copper has decreased, and the inventory of aluminum has increased. The market is worried about the impact of tariffs [15][17] - **Alumina**: The new production capacity of domestic alumina is being put into operation, and the supply is in surplus. The 2505 contract is expected to operate weakly [17] - **Steel Products**: The night trading prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils have risen. The spot trading volume is fair, and the inventory reduction of steel products continues, but the market is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [17] 3.4 Option Finance - **Stock Index**: The A - share market has rebounded, and the US stock market has also risen significantly. The tariff war between China and the US may have a negative impact on the global financial system. Short - term investors can wait for the situation to become clearer, and some trading strategies such as short - term volatility strategies and combination arbitrage strategies can be considered [21][23][24] - **Options**: The trading volume and open interest of stock index options have different changes. Trend investors can hold long - 50 and short - 1000 arbitrage, and volatility investors can sell put options to short - sell volatility [25][26]

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（62）期 发布日期：2025-04-09 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/4/9 | 2025/4/8 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | | | 08:00 | 15:00 | | | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 37645.59 | 37965.60 | -320.010 | -0.843 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 15267.91 | 15603.26 | -335.350 | -2.149 | | 标普500 | | 4982.77 | 5062.25 | -79.480 | -1.570 | | 恒生指数 | | 20127.68 | 19828.30 | 299.380 | 1.510 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.74 | 1.79 | -0.046 | -2.570 | | 美元指数 | | 102.74 | 102.97 | -0.236 | -0.229 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.34 | 7 ...

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（61）期 发布日期：2025-04-08 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/4/8 08:00 | 2025/4/7 15:00 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 37965.60 | 38314.86 | -349.260 | -0.912 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 15603.26 | 15587.79 | 15.470 | 0.099 | | 标普500 | | 5062.25 | 5074.08 | -11.830 | -0.233 | | 恒生指数 | | 19828.30 | 22849.81 | -3021.510 | -13.223 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.79 | 1.62 | 0.173 | 10.699 | | 美元指数 | | 103.43 | 103.50 | -0.073 | -0.070 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.31 | 7.31 | 0 | 0 | ...