投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 缩量确认关键支撑 等待放量反弹机会 ——股指周报2025.04.28 客服中心 ：李卫红 联系方式：0371-68599157 电子邮箱：liwh_qh@ccnew.com 投资咨询编号：Z0017812 | 本期观点 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | 股指 | 1、中信建投研究，此次政治局会议并未涉及到调整预算、出台大规模增量刺激政策的 | IC/IM 的组合套 | 1）外部市场环境； 2）地缘政治因素； 3）宏观政策调整。 | | | 表述，强调既定政策"加紧实施"、"用足用好"，符合预期。主因当前既定政策还有大幅 | | | | | 空间未用，没有必要安排增量政策。下半年预计仍有增量财政政策，中央对外部冲击已 | | | | | 有充分估计，明确"要强化底线思维，充分备足预案"，"根据形势变化及时推出增量储备 | | | | | 政策"。出台的时间节点我们预计在三季度中后期，一是彼时当前财政空间或已充分使 | | | | | 用，二则往年也有参考经验。消费领域，提出 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 供应减量，双硅低位震荡 ——铁合金周报20250428 研究所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58630083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业证书 编 号 ：F03099603 投资咨询 编 号 ：Z0020978 需求：成材周产量微增 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 1-1 1-13 1-25 2-6 2-18 3-2 3-14 3-26 4-7 4-19 5-1 5-13 5-25 6-6 6-18 6-30 7-12 7-24 8-5 8-17 8-29 9-10 9-22 10-4 10-16 10-28 11-9 11-21 12-3 12-15 12-27 硅铁周消费量：万吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 700 750 800 850 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1-1 1-13 1-25 2-6 2-18 3-2 3-14 3-26 4-7 4-19 5-1 5-13 5-25 6-6 6-18 6-30 7-12 7-24 8-5 8-17 8-29 9-1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the Politburo meeting, the market gradually returns to the supply - demand fundamentals. The five major steel products are continuously destocking. The increase in production is mainly concentrated in hot - rolled coils and medium - thick plates. Rebar shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with both weekly production and demand decreasing, and destocking slightly slowing down, but the overall inventory is low, and there is a shortage of specifications in the market, resulting in a strong willingness to support spot prices. Hot - rolled coils have both increasing production and demand, with short - term demand having certain resilience, and the export pressure has not fully emerged, but attention should be paid to the weakening of export orders from May to June. Recently, there has been an obvious increase in billet export feedback, which helps to relieve the pressure of overall steel supply. At the same time, there are rumors of steel mills controlling production and reducing volume, which need to be continuously monitored. Before the holiday, due to the background of margin increase, the willingness of funds to leave the market is enhanced, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate repeatedly, so it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [3]. - For iron ore, the supply of iron ore has increased, and the port has started to accumulate inventory. The supply - demand is loose, and the price still faces pressure. The short - term price tends to fluctuate in a low - level range. Before the May Day holiday, due to the background of margin increase, the willingness of funds to leave the market is enhanced, and there are great uncertainties in the overseas market during the holiday, so it is recommended to hold a light position [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the production of coking coal is stable, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal is at a relatively high level. There is certain restocking support in the market before the holiday, and the port coking coal continues to destock, but the absolute quantity is still at a historical high level in the same period, and the medium - and long - term loose pattern remains unchanged. The profit of coking enterprises has been repaired, and the game of the second round of coke price increase has intensified, and whether it can be implemented before the holiday remains to be seen. The increase in hot metal provides certain support for the raw material end, but considering the limited subsequent increase and the enhanced willingness of funds to leave the market before the holiday, the price still shows pressure, and the overall situation shows a low - level shock, so it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The macro - environment has warmed up, and steel prices have rebounded from the low level. The spot and futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils have both shown a low - level rebound trend, and the basis has widened. The inventory of the industry continues to be destocked, but the destocking of rebar and hot - rolled coils has slowed down to varying degrees. Due to the relatively low absolute inventory of rebar and the shortage of specifications in the market, the willingness to support prices is strong. The export pressure of hot - rolled coils has not fully emerged [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Production**: National rebar weekly production is 229.11 tons (down 0.05% month - on - month, up 3.18% year - on - year), and national hot - rolled coil weekly production is 317.5 tons (up 0.99% month - on - month, up 0.60% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace production increased slightly, and electric furnace production decreased [16][18][23]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit is +98 yuan/ton (up 34.25% week - on - week, down 36.36% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit is +29 yuan/ton (up 31.82% week - on - week, down 79.72% year - on - year) [32]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption is 259.94 tons (down 5.07% month - on - month, down 2.31% year - on - year), and the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions is 12.13 tons (up 9.10% month - on - month, down 19.14% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil apparent consumption is 324.36 tons (up 0.06% month - on - month, up 0.28% year - on - year) [37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory is 702.33 tons (down 4.21% month - on - month, down 25.98% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory is 367.69 tons (down 1.83% month - on - month, down 10.32% year - on - year) [42][47]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 12.14% week - on - week and decreased by 23.38% year - on - year; the transaction land area of 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 2.26% week - on - week and decreased by 30.78% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in March 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.006 million and 2.915 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 42.9% and 37% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 8.2% respectively. The cumulative automobile production and sales were 7.561 million and 7.47 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 14.5% and 11.2% respectively [51][54]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipment from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil is 27.584 million tons (up 13.16% month - on - month, up 6.19% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports of iron ore is 25.128 million tons (up 8.06% month - on - month, up 27.06% year - on - year) [62]. - **Demand**: Hot metal daily output is 2.4435 million tons (up 423,000 tons month - on - month, up 683,000 tons year - on - year), and the port ore handling volume at 45 ports of iron ore is 3.2792 million tons (up 5.95% month - on - month, up 1.16% year - on - year) [67]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports of iron ore is 142.61 million tons (up 1.46% month - on - month, down 3.37% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises is 90.7303 million tons (up 0.22% month - on - month, down 3.27% year - on - year) [73]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operation rate of coking coal mines is 88.38% (up 0.78% month - on - month, up 3.37% year - on - year), and the operation rate of coal washing plants is 63.01% (up 1.79% month - on - month, down 6.15% year - on - year). The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is 138,100 tons (down 2.48% month - on - month, up 63.94% year - on - year) [79]. - **Demand**: The daily transaction rate of coking coal auctions is 75.36% (down 5.86% week - on - week, down 18.65% year - on - year) [82]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants is - 9 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton month - on - month, up 117 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants is 75.27% (up 2.53% month - on - month, up 15.23% year - on - year) [88]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants is 8.2006 million tons (down 1.21% month - on - month, up 26.74% year - on - year), and the coking coal inventory at the port is 3.2479 million tons (down 3.73% month - on - month, up 47.29% year - on - year). The coke inventory of independent coking plants is 688,200 tons (up 1.27% month - on - month, up 35.74% year - on - year), and the coke inventory at the port is 2.4358 million tons (down 1.02% month - on - month, up 15.83% year - on - year) [94][100]. - **Spot Price**: The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi is 1,300 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week, down 730 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang is 1,200 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month, down 600 yuan/ton year - on - year) [106]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of hot - rolled coils has slightly widened, and the spread between rebar 05 - 10 contracts has shown a narrow - range fluctuation. The spread between iron ore 05 - 09 contracts has narrowed, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has slightly widened [108][113].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro Aspect**: Domestic important meetings have released positive policy signals, and the negative impact of US tariffs has weakened. Market risk - aversion sentiment has cooled down, and attention should be paid to the negotiation situation [4]. - **Supply - demand Aspect**: It is expected that the previously overhauled plants will resume production this week. The market's end - of - month settlement prices are gradually released, and demand for restocking has slowed down. The East China liquid caustic soda market is expected to be weak and stable. With the approaching of the May Day holiday, downstream buyers are resistant to high prices. To keep inventory levels stable, some enterprises have offered discounts on sales, which is reasonable [4]. - **Overall Logic**: The weak operation of alumina prices continues to have a negative feedback effect on caustic soda. Attention should be paid to the cost - end support below. Caustic soda may be weak and consolidate at a low level this week [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has weakened again. The basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong has fluctuated steadily. From April 18th to April 24th, the price of 32% ion - membrane liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped from 820 yuan/ton to 810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22%; the price of 50% ion - membrane liquid caustic soda dropped from 1460 yuan/ton to 1420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.74%. The prices of other products such as raw salt, flake caustic soda, and light soda ash remained unchanged [9][12][18]. - **Futures Market**: The report presents the price trends of caustic soda futures (active contracts) compared with soda ash, alumina, PVC futures, and the change in caustic soda warehouse receipts [15][16]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: From April 18th to April 24th, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. Affected by newly added overhaul plants in Northwest, Central, and South China, the load decreased, while the load in North and Southwest China increased after the overhaul of plants ended. In Shandong, there were both复产 and减产 enterprises, and the复产 capacity was greater than the减产 capacity, with the capacity utilization rate increasing by 4.0% to 91%. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda will rise to about 84%, and the weekly output will be about 809,500 tons [20]. - **Downstream - Alumina**: There were both production increases and decreases in the alumina market during the week. Overall, the operating capacity of alumina increased significantly. Some previously overhauled alumina enterprises resumed production after the overhaul, while some enterprises started roasting furnace overhauls due to unstable product quality. As of April 24th, China's alumina production capacity was 107.4 million tons, the operating capacity was 85.4 million tons, and the operating rate was 81.97% (+ 0.23%) [25]. - **Inventory Side**: As of April 24th, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 408,500 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.77%. The storage capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in China was 24.38%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The storage capacity ratios in Northwest, Central, Northeast, and Southwest China increased month - on - month, while those in North, East, and South China decreased month - on - month [29]. - **Liquid Chlorine**: From April 18th to April 24th, 2025, the average price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 143 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 25%. At the beginning of the week, the supply was stable, but downstream enterprises carried out plant overhauls due to profit shrinkage, resulting in a significant reduction in demand, poor trading atmosphere, and mostly lower prices. The price of liquid chlorine in Jiangsu also decreased following the trend in Shandong, with the current mainstream price at around - 250 yuan/ton. The downstream operating rate was not high, and purchases were made on demand. The mainstream price in Anhui was - 50 yuan/ton. The domestic PVC market continued to operate weakly [32]. - **Chlor - alkali Cost and Profit**: From April 18th to April 24th, 2025, the average weekly gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 347 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 46.41%. During the week, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased, while the price of liquid chlorine decreased slightly, resulting in an overall increase in chlor - alkali profits [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Macro: Positive policy signals from domestic important meetings and reduced US tariff negatives have cooled market risk aversion. Attention should be paid to negotiation progress [4]. - Fundamentals: Domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain negative. After the copper price fell from its high, terminal consumption recovered, and social inventories continued to decline. As of April 24, the copper inventory in major regions across the country dropped to 181,700 tons, with eight consecutive weeks of inventory reduction [4]. - Overall Logic: Trump's tariff remarks are volatile, market sentiment has eased, and the copper price has rebounded to fill the gap. Attention should be paid to whether there will be new macro - level positive support, and be vigilant against risks in the overseas market during the May Day holiday [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macro: Similar to copper, positive policy signals from domestic important meetings and reduced US tariff negatives have cooled market risk aversion. Attention should be paid to negotiation progress [6]. - Fundamentals: Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is at a high level, the start - up of downstream aluminum processing enterprises is stable, social inventories are in a seasonal destocking cycle, and aluminum product exports have declined significantly. Attention should be paid to domestic demand support [6]. - Overall Logic: The negative impact of US tariff increases has gradually been released. There are no major contradictions in the aluminum fundamentals. This week, it may continue to fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the gap position above, and be vigilant against risks in the overseas market during the May Day holiday [6]. Alumina - Macro: Similar to copper and electrolytic aluminum, positive policy signals from domestic important meetings and reduced US tariff negatives have cooled market risk aversion. Attention should be paid to negotiation progress [8]. - Fundamentals: As of last Thursday, the national alumina operating capacity was 83.62 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 740,000 tons. Due to recent concentrated maintenance and production cuts, the alumina operating capacity has been lower than the theoretical demand for electrolytic aluminum production for several consecutive weeks, and the spot supply of alumina has tightened [8]. - Overall Logic: The spot price of alumina has stopped falling recently, but the medium - term supply - demand fundamentals are still in surplus. A bearish outlook should be maintained in the medium term [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Copper Market**: The average price of copper in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market was 78,280 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,880 yuan/ton. The closing prices of various copper futures contracts also showed increases. LME copper prices and inventories also had corresponding changes [15]. - **Aluminum Market**: The average price of aluminum in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market was 20,100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 210 yuan/ton. The closing prices of various aluminum futures contracts increased, and LME aluminum inventories increased [15]. - **Alumina Market**: The alumina spot price index was 2,897 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan/ton. The average prices of alumina in different regions also had small increases [15]. - **Weekly News**: In the first quarter, 11,906 large - scale non - ferrous metal industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of 91.77 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 40.7%. The Antamina copper mine in Peru is gradually resuming operations after an accident. The aluminum industry companies generally had good performance in 2024 and the first quarter of 2025. The Shanghai Futures Exchange is soliciting opinions on the futures contracts, option contracts, and business rules of cast aluminum alloy [17]. 3.2 Macro Analysis On April 25, 2025, the Politburo meeting proposed new measures in central government leverage, consumption, infrastructure, real estate, and employment, aiming to promote economic development [19]. 3.3 Copper Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The processing fee TC continued to decline. The spread between refined and scrap copper, import profit, and other indicators also showed corresponding trends [25]. - **Futures Market**: The net long positions in COMEX copper increased [28]. - **Overseas Market**: The US dollar index rebounded, which had an impact on LME copper prices, spreads, and inventories [32]. - **Inventories**: As of April 24, the social copper inventory in major regions across the country dropped to 181,700 tons, achieving eight consecutive weeks of inventory reduction. The operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises is expected to rise to 81.81% this week [36]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis - **Domestic Market**: The spot premium of electrolytic aluminum converged. The spreads between different aluminum products and the import profit also showed corresponding changes [42]. - **Foreign Market**: The US dollar index rebounded, affecting LME aluminum prices, spreads, and net positions of different institutions [44]. - **Weekly Inventories**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, aluminum rod, and the inventories in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME all showed different trends [46]. - **Downstream Start - up**: As of April 24, the overall start - up rate of the domestic aluminum downstream processing industry increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%. Different sub - industries had different performance, and the start - up rate is expected to decline slightly this week [48]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of electrolytic aluminum were affected by the prices of alumina, pre - baked anodes, and power coal [53]. 3.5 Alumina Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The domestic alumina spot price has stopped falling. The prices of alumina in different regions and related raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda also showed corresponding trends [56]. - **Futures Market**: The inventory of alumina futures remained at a high level. The basis and the relationship between alumina futures prices and other related futures prices also had corresponding changes [59]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, the operating capacity of alumina increased. On the demand side, the theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased slightly [62]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost pressure on alumina enterprises is relatively high. As of April 24, the industry cost was 3,337.48 yuan/ton, and the industry profit was - 445.73 yuan/ton [65].

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（75）期 发布日期：2025-04-28 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 1 公司官方微信 中原期货研究所 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/4/28 | 2025/4/25 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 959.00 | 956.00 | 3.0 | 0.314 | | | 焦炭 | 1,577.00 | 1,566.00 | 11.0 | 0.702 | | | 天然橡胶 | 14,795.00 | 14,720.00 | 75.0 | 0.510 | | | 20号胶 | 12,355.00 | 12,300.00 | 55.0 | Q.447 | | | 塑料 | 7,154.00 | 7,150.00 | 4.0 | 0.056 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report presents the latest market data, macro news, and morning meeting views on various commodity futures and financial markets. It analyzes the supply - demand situation, price trends, and investment suggestions for different sectors such as agriculture, energy and chemicals, industrial metals, and financial options [4][6][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Chemical Products**: On April 24, 2025, most chemical product futures prices declined compared to the previous day. For example, crude oil dropped by 3.255% to 487.40, and fuel oil decreased by 2.640% to 2,987.00 [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The prices of some agricultural products rose, while others fell. Yellow soybean No.1 increased by 1.226% to 4,292.00, and rapeseed meal rose by 1.306% to 2,714.00. Meanwhile, white sugar decreased by 0.819% to 5,937.00 [4]. 2. Macro News - Diplomatic responses were given to the US statements on tariffs and trade agreements. China hopes the US to stop threats and conduct dialogues on an equal, respectful, and reciprocal basis [6]. - China and Azerbaijan established a comprehensive strategic partnership, including cooperation in trade, investment, and other fields, and signed a visa - exemption agreement [6]. - The EU appealed against a WTO dispute case, and China will handle it according to relevant rules to safeguard its legitimate rights [6]. - The Fed's "Beige Book" showed little change in economic activity, with uncertainties in international trade policies [6]. - The US President may exempt some tariffs on automakers and steel and aluminum, and the US Commerce Department launched a truck import investigation [7]. - International oil prices weakened due to concerns about OPEC+ production increases and global economic uncertainties [8]. - Zhengzhou plans to adjust the upper age limit for housing provident fund loans [8]. 3. Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The spot market is stable with increased supply. Focus on the 5 - 10 positive spread and consider short - selling on rebounds [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: The overall commodity atmosphere is weak, and the oil market is expected to decline. Palm oil and soybean oil inventories have changed, and total trading volume decreased [12]. - **Sugar**: The market has both long and short factors. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the 5950 - 6050 range, with key levels at 5950 and 6050 [12]. - **Corn**: The market is also mixed. Technically, pay attention to the 2300 support level, and consider going long lightly if it holds, with a stop - loss for inventory pressure [12]. - **Pigs**: Spot prices are stable with fluctuations. Futures are in high - level oscillations, and short - term operations are recommended [13]. - **Eggs**: Spot prices are falling. There is short - term support from pre - May Day demand, but medium - term pressure is increasing, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: Supply is high, and demand is weak. Futures prices may continue to oscillate weakly, and weather and macro factors should be monitored [13]. - **Caustic Soda**: The market is relatively stable, and the 2509 contract continues to operate at a low level [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is weakening, and there is still an expectation of a second - round price increase for coke. Short - term, they are in low - level oscillations [13]. Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Prices rebounded on April 23. Pay attention to the filling of the gap. Copper and aluminum inventories have decreased [13][16]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand fundamentals are still in surplus. In the medium - to - long - term, prices are under pressure, and a bearish approach is recommended [16]. - **Steel Products**: Spot market transactions improved, and prices rebounded in a range. Pay attention to the 3200 pressure for rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: They are in short - term low - level oscillations. Steel tenders are approaching the end [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Technically, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider going long lightly if the 69500 pressure is broken [16]. Financial Options - **Stock Indexes**: Driven by policy benefits, relevant concept sectors are active. The market shows resilience, and trading volume is above 1 trillion yuan. Consider short - term opportunities for index futures and combination arbitrage strategies [18]. - **Options**: Different index options have different performance in terms of volume, open interest, and implied volatility. Trend investors can defend or use arbitrage strategies, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddles after volatility reduction [20].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - shares continued the pattern of strong heavy - weight stocks and weak small - cap stocks this week, with sluggish market trading. On April 18, the A - share trading volume was less than one trillion, hitting the lowest level since the "924" market last year [2]. - For index options, different strategies are recommended for different varieties. For index options, the trend strategy is mainly defensive or a long - 50 and short - 1000 spread, and the volatility strategy is to buy a wide - straddle after the volatility drops to bet on the increase in volatility [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1沪深300股指期权（IO） - The CSI 300 index fluctuated narrowly. The weekly line returned to the 120 - week moving average, and the three - color K - line indicator on the weekly line remained green. The daily three - color K - line indicator turned gray [2][10][13]. - The IF futures current - month contract's premium to the underlying asset decreased, and the premium of the next - month contract to the current - month contract increased [21][24]. - The trading volume of IO options shrank, and the position in April did not exceed that of last month. The trading volume PCR of options decreased, and the position PCR increased. The implied volatility first decreased and then increased, tending to be stable. The strike prices of the maximum positions of both call and put options decreased [2][29][32][35]. - The expiration settlement price of the April contract of CSI 300 index options was at a six - month low, and the exercise rate increased [37]. 3.2中证1000股指期权（MO） - The daily line of the CSI 1000 index first rose and then fell. The weekly line barely held the 850 - week moving average, and the three - color K - line indicators on both the daily and weekly lines remained green [2][41][43]. - The IM futures current - month contract's premium to the underlying asset decreased, and the premium of the next - month contract to the current - month contract also decreased [51][53]. - The trading volume of MO options shrank, but the position in April exceeded that of last month. The trading volume PCR of options decreased, and the position PCR increased. The implied volatility decreased. The range of strike prices of the maximum positions of call and put options narrowed [2][59][62][65]. - The expiration settlement price of the April contract of CSI 1000 index options was at a five - month low, and the exercise rate decreased [67]. 3.3上证50股指期权（HO） - The SSE 50 index returned to the 850 - day moving average. The weekly line had two consecutive positive candles, and the three - color K - line indicator on the weekly line turned gray. The daily three - color K - line indicator turned red [2][71][73]. - The IH futures current - month contract's premium to the underlying asset decreased, and the premium of the next - month contract to the current - month contract first expanded and then shrank [81][83]. - The trading volume of HO options increased, but the position in April did not exceed that of the previous six months. Both the trading volume PCR and the position PCR of options increased. The implied volatility stabilized. The strike prices of the maximum positions of both call and put options moved up [2][90][93]. - The expiration settlement price of the April contract of SSE 50 index options was at a two - month low, and the exercise rate increased [98].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market shows a clear contradiction of oversupply and low valuation in the current stage. After the seasonal stocking, the weather factor will continue to suppress the market. It is recommended to short after the rebound and continue the JD59 positive spread strategy [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Periodic and Spot Market Review - **Egg Futures**: Last week, the futures market showed concerns about the short - term spot price increase. The futures market was stagnant and needed further guidance from the spot market. Although the spot market may still have room to rise, the futures market has started to reflect the post - holiday spot price expectations. It will still take time for the market to break away from the bottom range [6]. - **Egg Spot**: Last week, the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend. Supported by downstream stocking, the spot price rebounded from the bottom and fluctuated in the range of 3.2 - 3.5 yuan per catty. However, after the May Day stocking, the downstream market will return to weakness, and the weather will become the main factor suppressing the spot price [6]. 3.2 Supply Side - **New - added Capacity**: From March to June 2025, the newly - opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2024 to January 2025, which remains at a high level and is higher than the historical average [10]. - **Eliminated Capacity**: From March to June 2025, the normal eliminated capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2023 to January 2024, and the available elimination volume is relatively neutral [10]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: The inventory remains at a high level. The growth rate of normal new - added capacity is relatively stable, and the elimination volume is high, which may lead to a slowdown in phased supply [10]. 3.3 Elimination End - The price of eliminated chickens fluctuates at a high level, the elimination volume slows down significantly, the average elimination age is about 530 days, and the elimination enthusiasm is increasing [13]. 3.4 Market Factors - **Seasonality**: The seasonal strength - weakness conversion occurs, and the restocking demand is still the main support for the current market [15]. - **Production Area**: The inventory in the production area is not high, and purchases are made on demand. The future weather in the south is not conducive to storage, and quality issues will affect egg prices [15]. - **Consumption End**: After holiday stocking, the inventory has been transferred to the downstream [15]. - **Substitute Products**: Vegetable prices are weak, and the supply has recovered, so the support for egg prices has weakened; pork prices continue to decline, and the substitution effect on eggs is not obvious; other meat prices have strengthened in the short term [17]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Raw Material End**: Corn and soybean meal prices have rebounded from the low level. Corn is supported by policy - based purchases, and soybean meal remains stable with a slight upward trend due to short - term spot shortages [22]. - **Cost End**: The cost continues to rise. Currently, the feed cost is about 2.6 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is about 2.9 yuan per catty [22]. - **Breeding Profit**: The breeding profit has rebounded, but it has not yet emerged from the seasonal low [22]. 3.6 Capital and Market Indicators - **Capital Flow**: After the rebound this week, funds left the market and then re - entered. The short - selling main funds exerted force again [25]. - **Basis**: The basis has fallen from a high level. The spot price has dropped significantly after the holiday, but the basis has stabilized and strengthened later, which is expected to provide some support for the market [27]. - **Spread**: With the rebound of the spot price, the near - term contracts are supported, and the spread has strengthened. In the future, the positive spread strategy will be the main approach [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For ferrosilicon, the weekly output continued to decline, consumption slightly rebounded, traders were cautious with low - inventory. Steel mills pressured prices during procurement, and the game continued. Although the approaching Politburo meeting improved the market atmosphere and provided some support at low prices, the medium - term bearish pattern remained unchanged, and prices were expected to fluctuate at a low level. Strategies could be bearish on rebounds [4]. - For silicomanganese, the mills' losses persisted, production continued to decline slightly on a weekly basis, weekly consumption decreased, and the pressure from high - level warehouse receipts remained. The price of manganese ore weakened, and port inventory was at a low level. The supply - demand fundamentals of silicomanganese remained loose, and prices were expected to oscillate weakly at a low level [28]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Ferrosilicon 3.1.1 Supply - The output of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 10030 tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.72% and a year - on - year increase of 9.02%. In March 2025, the ferrosilicon output was 50270 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.85% and a year - on - year increase of 18.02% [7]. 3.1.2 Demand - The consumption of ferrosilicon in five major steel products was 2050 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.11% and a year - on - year increase of 3.45%. The weekly output of five major steel products was 872710 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.19% and a year - on - year increase of 1.42% [9]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The enterprise inventory (bi - weekly data) was 9490 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19.15% and a year - on - year increase of 50.45%. The steel mill inventory days in March were 16.26 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 days and a year - on - year increase of 0.42 days. The number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 13757, a week - on - week increase of 2552 and a year - on - year decrease of 1587 [12][20]. 3.1.4 Cost - The electricity price in Inner Mongolia decreased, and the price of oxidized iron scale dropped, leading to a slight decline in costs. Although the profit in Inner Mongolia improved, overall losses still existed [4][17]. 3.1.5 Basis - The basis of the main contract was 218 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 146 yuan/ton [4]. 3.1.6 Position - The total position of ferrosilicon increased [21]. 3.2 Silicomanganese 3.2.1 Supply - The weekly output of 121 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 18860 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.62% and a year - on - year increase of 18.57%. In March 2025, the national silicomanganese output was 89910 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.68% and a year - on - year increase of 6.52% [31]. 3.2.2 Demand - The weekly consumption of silicomanganese was 12630 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 3.44%. The weekly output of five major steel products was 872710 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.19% and a year - on - year increase of 1.42% [34]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The enterprise inventory (bi - weekly data) was 15760 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 49.57%. The steel mill inventory days in March were 16.61 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.34 days and a year - on - year increase of 0.58 days. The number of silicomanganese warehouse receipts was 119504, a week - on - week increase of 2003 and a year - on - year increase of 67274 [37][38]. 3.2.4 Cost - The prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port and Qinzhou Port continued to decline, and the cost of silicomanganese kept moving down. Although the electricity price in Inner Mongolia decreased and the profit improved, losses still persisted [28][44]. 3.2.5 Basis - The basis of the main contract was +154 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton [28]. 3.2.6 Position - The total position of silicomanganese increased on a weekly basis [45].