投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 纯碱玻璃周报——2025.06.23 3 1.1 纯碱周度观点——供增需减格局延续，碱厂库存高位累积 品种 主要逻辑 策略建议 风险提示 纯碱 1.供应 装置开工率86.57%（+1.68%），氨碱法86.57%（环比+6.53%），联碱法80.59%（-0.47%)；周 产量75.47万吨（+1.46万吨），轻碱产量33.87万吨（+0.3万吨），重碱产量41.60万吨（+1.16万 吨）。 2.需求 纯碱表需71.43万吨（+3.35万吨），轻碱表需33.74万吨（+2.44万吨），重碱表需37.69万吨 （+0.91万吨）。 3.库存 纯碱企业库存172.67万吨（+1.72万吨），轻碱库存81.26万吨（+0.62万吨），重碱库存 91.41万吨（+2.34万吨）。 4.核心逻辑 本周纯碱现货价格偏弱运行，随着前期检修装置的陆续复产，纯碱供应端压力进一步回升， 后续关注夏季装置检修情况。需求端，下游需求支撑表现偏弱，浮法玻璃及光伏玻璃日熔量环比 均下降，下周部分浮法玻璃产线计划冷修，光伏玻璃日熔量高位回落，重碱需求存边际下降预期。 短期来看，供增需减影响下 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 美联储按兵不动，铜铝震荡整理 ——铜铝周报2025.06.23 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观面：国内5月经济数据仍有韧性，美联储6月会议继续暂停降 | 沪铜2508合约 | | | | 息，关注中东局势和美国关税政策变化。 | 上方参考压力 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、基本面：从供应端来看，交易所仓单大量流出，俄罗斯低价货源 | 位80000元/吨 | 观政策及经 | | 铜 | 在市场大量销售，但市场承接能力有限。库存方面，截至6月5日周 | 一线，下方参 | 济数据变化； | | | 四，全国主流地区铜库存为14.6万吨，环比上升0.11万吨。 | 考支撑位 | 2、国外铜矿 | | | 3、整体逻辑：铜矿紧张预期和美国对铜征收关税预期继续支持铜价， | | | | | 但关税对经济冲击 ...

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（111）期 发布日期：2025-06-23 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 中原期货研究所 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/6/23 | 2025/6/22 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 796.50 | 795.00 | 1.50 | 0.189 | | | 焦炭 | 1,379.00 | 1,384.50 | -5.50 | -0.397 | | | 天然橡胶 | 13,860.00 | 13,900.00 | -40.0 | -0.288 | | | 20号胶 | 11,970.00 | 12,065.00 | -95.0 | -0.787 | | | 塑料 | 7,416.00 | 7,415.00 | 1.0 | 0.013 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides an overview of the prices and trends of various commodities in the chemical and agricultural sectors, as well as macro - economic news and morning views on major commodities. It analyzes the supply - demand situations, price trends, and investment suggestions for different products, and also comments on the stock market and option - financial market [3][5][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Commodity Price Changes - **Chemical Products**: On June 19, 2025, among chemical products, crude oil had the highest increase with a price rise of 11.60 to 564.30, a 2.099% increase, while PX had the largest decline, dropping 34.0 to 6,954.00, a 0.487% decrease [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Among agricultural products, yellow corn had the highest increase, rising 36.0 to 2,399.00, a 1.523% increase, and No. 1 cotton had the largest decline, dropping 70.0 to 13,470.00, a 0.517% decrease [3]. 2. Macro - Economic News - **International Tensions**: Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei stated that Iran will not accept any "imposed peace or war" and will "not turn a blind eye" to any attacks on its territory. Israel will be "punished" if it makes serious mistakes [5]. - **Fed's Interest - Rate Decision**: The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50% in its June meeting, lowered the 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4%, and raised the inflation forecast to 3%. The dot - plot shows two 25 - basis - point rate cuts in 2025 and one in 2026 [5]. - **Financial Policies**: At the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, multiple financial regulatory departments announced measures to support high - level opening up, such as the central bank's 8 initiatives for Shanghai's international financial center construction [6]. - **Expansion of QFII Participation**: Starting from the night session on June 19, QFIIs can participate in trading glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, ethylene glycol, LPG, natural rubber, lead, and tin futures and options [6]. 3. Morning Views on Major Commodities 3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot market is stable with a slight weakness. The short - term futures market will likely be weak and volatile, waiting for new drivers [11]. - **Oils and Fats**: The total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 55% on June 17. With a favorable US biodiesel policy and rising crude oil prices, the oil market is expected to be strong [11]. - **Sugar**: The sugar futures price has fallen below the key support of 5,700. It is recommended to short on rallies to 5,720, and pay attention to the 5,600 support [11]. - **Corn**: The corn futures price should focus on the 2,400 technical resistance. If the September contract breaks through, a light - position long can be considered, with 2,350 as the support [11]. - **Hogs**: The hog price is stable with a slight increase. The futures contract is testing the 13,800 - 14,000 resistance [13]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is stable. The futures market has a technical rebound, but the fundamental weakness remains [13]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: The urea price is rising, but the new - order follow - up has slowed. With sufficient supply, the price increase space is limited [13]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong and East China is expected to decline. The 2509 contract should be treated with a medium - term bearish view [13]. - **Coking Coal**: The imported Mongolian coking coal market is weak, and the coke price may see a fourth - round cut [13]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Copper is under pressure at the 80,000 level, while aluminum is supported by low inventory but limited by weak demand in the off - season [16]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market is relatively loose, and the price is expected to fall. The 2509 contract has a short - term rebound but a medium - term weak pattern [16]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The trading volume of rebar and hot - rolled coil has slightly improved. The supply - demand structure has improved, but the off - season demand is still under pressure [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: Silicon iron and manganese silicon had different performances on Wednesday. Silicon iron may follow the trend of finished products, and the industry can consider hedging on rallies [17][18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, with 59,680 as the support and 60,600 as the resistance [19]. 3.4 Option - Financial - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is in a short - term shock pattern. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and wait for callbacks. Attention should be paid to the expiration of June contracts [19][20]. - **Options**: Different stock - index options have different performance in terms of trading volume, open interest, and implied volatility. Trend investors should be defensive, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddles after volatility decline [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall situation of the market is complex, with different trends in various sectors. In the agricultural products sector, the spot market of peanuts is stable but weak, and the short - term trend of the futures market is still weak. The trading volume of edible oils has increased, but the market lacks positive support. The sugar market is affected by international and domestic factors, and the futures price is under pressure. The corn market shows a divergence between the spot and futures markets. The pig and egg markets have their own characteristics in terms of supply, demand, and price trends. In the energy and chemical sector, the urea market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the price is under pressure. The caustic soda market has a weak fundamental situation. The coking coal and coke markets are affected by factors such as production recovery and downstream demand, showing a weak and volatile trend. In the industrial metals sector, the copper and aluminum markets are affected by factors such as supply and demand and inventory, and the price increase momentum is in doubt. The alumina market is under pressure due to supply recovery. The steel market is affected by factors such as production, demand, and inventory, and the price is under short - term pressure. The ferroalloy market is affected by supply and demand and cost factors, and the medium - term trend is bearish. The lithium carbonate market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is in a bottom - stage range. In the option and financial sector, the stock index shows an upward trend, but there are differences in the 3400 - point area. The option market has different performance in different varieties, and investors need to take corresponding strategies according to different market conditions [11][13][15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Price Changes - **Chemical Industry**: On June 13, 2025, compared with the previous day, the prices of some chemical products changed. For example, the price of coking coal decreased by 1.50 to 765.00, with a decline of 0.196%; the price of natural rubber increased by 110.0 to 13,695.00, with an increase of 0.810% [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: The prices of some agricultural products also changed. For example, the price of yellow soybean No.1 increased by 5.0 to 4,203.00, with an increase of 0.119%; the price of No.1 cotton decreased by 85.0 to 13,435.00, with a decline of 0.629% [3]. 2. Macroeconomic News - **Sino - US Economic and Trade Consultation**: The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held under the strategic guidance of the two heads of state. The two sides reached a principle agreement on the measures framework for implementing the important consensus of the two heads of state's phone call on June 5 and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and made new progress in addressing each other's economic and trade concerns. The Chinese side opposes unilateral tariff - increasing measures and hopes that the US side will abide by WTO rules and jointly promote the stable and sustainable development of Sino - US economic and trade relations [6]. - **Financial Support for Fujian**: The central bank and the foreign exchange administration jointly issued measures to support Fujian in exploring a new path for cross - strait integrated development and building a cross - strait integrated development demonstration zone, including supporting the construction of a multi - level cross - strait financial market [6]. - **Economic Data**: In May, the real economy continued to grow, with the sales revenue of the manufacturing industry accounting for 30.1% of the national enterprise sales. The sales revenue of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.5% year - on - year [7]. - **Stock Market Trends**: Since 2025, the domestic innovative drug sector has rebounded, and as of June 12, the Wind innovative drug index has increased by 27.46% year - to - date [7]. 3. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot market is stable but weak. The short - term futures market will continue to fluctuate weakly, waiting for new drivers [11]. - **Edible Oils**: The trading volume of edible oils has increased, but the market lacks positive support, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [11]. - **Sugar**: The sugar futures price has broken through the support level. The international sugar price is weak, and the domestic spot price has been adjusted. It is recommended to hold short positions but beware of technical rebounds [11]. - **Corn**: The corn market shows a divergence between the spot and futures markets. The spot market is strong, while the futures market is under pressure. It is recommended that long - position holders take partial profits in the 2360 - 2380 range [11]. - **Pigs**: The pig price is stable, the supply is relatively stable, and the futures market has a weak rebound [13]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is stable but weak. The futures market is under pressure due to factors such as high - temperature weather and inventory [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is weak. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the futures price is under pressure. It is necessary to pay attention to port inventory changes and agricultural demand replenishment [13]. - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamental situation of the caustic soda market is weak, and the 2509 contract is recommended to be treated with a bearish mindset [13]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market is affected by production recovery and downstream demand, showing a weak and volatile trend [13][15]. Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The copper and aluminum markets are affected by factors such as supply and demand and inventory. The price increase momentum is in doubt, and it is not advisable to chase high prices [15]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market is under pressure due to supply recovery, and the 2509 contract may continue to be under pressure [15]. - **Steel**: The steel market is affected by factors such as production, demand, and inventory, and the price is under short - term pressure [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market is affected by supply and demand and cost factors, and the medium - term trend is bearish [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is in a bottom - stage range. It is recommended to wait and see and beware of market fluctuations [16]. Option Finance - **Stock Index**: The stock index shows an upward trend, but there are differences in the 3400 - point area. It is recommended that unilateral long - position holders reduce positions on rallies and operate in a rolling manner [16][17]. - **Options**: The option market has different performance in different varieties. Trend investors are recommended to defend, and volatility investors are recommended to buy wide - straddle strategies after the volatility decline [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market had a positive performance on June 11, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.52% to 3402.32 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.83%, and the ChiNext Index rising 1.21%. The market turnover was 1.29 trillion yuan. However, short - term upward potential may be limited, and investors are advised to take profits when the market rises and shift from high - priced to low - priced stocks, focusing on previously oversold technology stocks [7][19]. - In the commodity market, different varieties showed different trends. For example, in the energy and chemical sector, urea was under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand; in the industrial metal sector, copper and aluminum prices rebounded but the upward momentum was questionable. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro News - From June 9th to 10th, the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. Both sides reached a principle agreement on the measure framework for implementing the important consensus of the leaders' phone call on June 5th and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and made new progress in addressing each other's economic and trade concerns [6]. - President Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory letter to the Ministerial Meeting of Coordinators for the Implementation of the Outcomes of the Forum on China - Africa Cooperation, emphasizing China's willingness to strengthen cooperation with Africa in various fields and promote high - quality development of China - Africa cooperation [6]. - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to CK Hutchison's sale of overseas port assets, expressing China's opposition to economic coercion and supporting Panama's sovereignty and independent decision - making [7]. - In May, China's automobile market continued to grow. Automobile production and sales reached 2.649 million and 2.686 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 11.6% and 11.2%. New energy vehicle sales reached 1.307 million in a single month, a year - on - year increase of 36.9%, accounting for 48.7% of the overall market. From January to May, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles were 5.608 million, a year - on - year increase of 44%. In May, automobile exports were 551,000, a year - on - year increase of 14.5%, and the cumulative exports in the first five months were 2.49 million, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [7]. 2. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 2.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The spot market is generally stable but weak. The futures market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, waiting for new drivers [11]. - Oils: The total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased. The inventory of palm oil and soybean oil showed different trends. Due to the progress of China - US negotiations, the oil market lacks positive support, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [11]. - Sugar: The futures price continued to be weak, and the fundamentals showed a pattern of "weak overseas and stable domestic". It is recommended to hold existing short positions but beware of basis repair risks [11]. - Corn: The futures market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, focusing on the impact of wheat prices in North China on the substitution margin of corn [11]. - Hogs: The spot price increased, the supply was relatively stable, and the consumption improved. The futures contract rebounded weakly [13]. - Eggs: The spot price was stable but weak. The futures market had technical support at the bottom, but the medium - term capacity pressure continued to be released [13]. 2.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The market price continued to be weak, with high supply and weak demand. The inventory of urea enterprises continued to accumulate significantly. It is expected that the futures price will continue to be under pressure in the short term [13]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price was under pressure due to factors such as reduced maintenance scale and new production capacity. The 2509 contract is considered from a short - side perspective [13]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market oscillated, and there was a possibility of a fourth round of price cuts for coke next week. The double - coking market oscillated under short - term macro - sentiment support [13][15]. 2.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: The spot prices of copper and aluminum increased, and the inventory of copper increased slightly while that of aluminum decreased. The prices rebounded, but the upward momentum was questionable, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [17]. - Alumina: The supply recovered while the demand remained stable, the inventory increased, the spot trading became lighter, and the 2509 contract may continue to be under pressure [17]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The night - session prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the spot market improved. The steel prices were supported by the positive news from the China - US talks, but the demand may weaken in the off - season. The steel prices are expected to fluctuate, with resistance levels for rebar at 3000 - 3050 and for hot - rolled coil at 3150 [17]. - Ferroalloys: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese were weak. The ferrosilicon market had short - term rebounds, but the supply pressure remained. The ferromanganese market lacked driving forces, and the medium - term view was bearish [17][19]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures price rebounded, and the spot market also improved. The fundamentals showed a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to short at high prices in the range of 61000 - 62500 yuan, beingware of the risk of short - covering if the 63000 - yuan pressure level is broken [19]. 2.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index: Although the recent tariff friction has eased, the short - term upward potential of the stock index may be limited. It is recommended to take profits when the market rises, shift from high - priced to low - priced stocks, and pay attention to previously oversold technology stocks. Avoid chasing high prices and beware of risks in crowded sectors [19][21]. - Options: Trend investors should focus on defense, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddle strategies to bet on increased volatility after the volatility decreases [21].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - The report provides an overview of the morning meeting on June 10, 2025, including macro news, price changes in various futures contracts, and views on major futures varieties. It also analyzes the market trends and investment suggestions for different sectors such as agriculture, energy, chemicals, and industrial metals [3][6][12] Group 3: Summary by Directory Macro News - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London on June 9 and continued on June 10 [6] - The General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued opinions to improve people's livelihood, including measures such as canceling household registration restrictions for social insurance participation [6] - In May, CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year, while PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year. The country's macro - policies are taking effect, and some sectors show positive price changes [6] - In the first five months of this year, China's total goods trade import and export value was 17.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Exports increased by 7.2%, and imports decreased by 3.8%. In May, the growth rate accelerated [7] - A - share indices fluctuated upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.43% to 3399.77 points, and the market turnover reaching 1.31 trillion yuan [7] - In the first five months, China's equipment manufacturing product exports reached 6.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, contributing significantly to overall export growth [8] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Civil Affairs will conduct pilot projects on intelligent elderly - care service robots [8] - XPeng Motors announced that its new model G7 will make its global debut on June 11 [8] Futures Price Changes - In the chemical industry, most futures prices declined on June 10 compared to June 9, except for crude oil, fuel oil, and styrene which increased [3] - In the agricultural products sector, some prices increased (e.g., yellow soybean No. 1, yellow corn), while others decreased (e.g., yellow soybean No. 2, soybean meal) [3] Morning Views on Major Varieties Agricultural Products - Peanut: The spot market is stable but weak. The short - term futures market will likely be weak and volatile, waiting for new drivers [12] - Oils: With the progress of China - US negotiations, the market lacks positive support. It is recommended to short on rebounds [12] - Sugar: The fundamentals are mixed. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the support at 5700 [12] - Corn: The futures price is rising, but the demand is under pressure. Short - term long positions can be held, but beware of the resistance at 2370 - 2380 [12] - Live Pigs: The market is oversupplied and in a weak downward trend, with the futures market also showing weakness [12][13] - Eggs: The spot price is stable with fluctuations. The futures market is weak, and the overall trend remains unchanged [13] Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price will continue to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to potential rebound opportunities [13] - Caustic Soda: The fundamentals lack support, and the 2509 contract should be treated with a bearish view [13] - Coking Coal and Coke: They are expected to be weak and volatile due to weak terminal demand and rising coke inventories [13] Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: The prices rebounded, but the upward momentum is questionable. A bearish view on rallies is recommended [16] - Alumina: The spot price is weakening, and the 2509 contract may continue to be under pressure [16] - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The prices are expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the resistance levels of 3000 - 3050 for rebar and 3150 for hot - rolled coil [16][17] - Ferroalloys: They are in a bottom - grinding state. A bearish view on rebounds is recommended, and avoid shorting at low levels [18] - Lithium Carbonate: The market is oversupplied. It is recommended to short on rallies, and beware of technical rebounds at 60000 [18] Options and Finance - Stock Index: The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching the previous high. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and operate in a rolling manner [18][20] - Options: For trend investors, a defensive strategy is recommended. Volatility investors can buy straddles after the volatility decline [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The egg market is currently in a weak state. Supply pressure is increasing due to the release of new production capacity and slow elimination of backward capacity, while demand is limited after the Dragon Boat Festival. The cost of feed is around 2.4 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is about 2.7 yuan per catty. The breeding profit is at a seasonal low. The overall strategy is to short on rebounds and mainly conduct JD reverse spreads [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Review - The egg futures market shows a positive market structure, with the near - month contracts following the decline of the spot market and the far - month contracts oscillating weakly. The market is still in a weak state, and although there are bottom - fishing behaviors in the market, they are ineffective. The market maintains a structure of near - weak and far - strong [6]. 3.2 Spot Review - Last week, the egg spot market was generally stable, but there was an adjustment over the weekend, mainly led by the decline in northern sales areas. The production areas were relatively stable, while the egg prices in southern production areas, especially those near the plum - rain area, continued to decline. After the festival, the pulling effect of the sales areas on the spot market is expected to be weak, and the spot price will continue to search for a bottom [13]. 3.3 Supply - **New production capacity**: From June to August 2025, the newly opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from February to April 2025, which is basically at a high level, and the new volume is higher than the historical average [18]. - **Elimination of production capacity**: From June to August 2025, the normal elimination of production capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2023 to January 2024, and the available elimination volume is relatively neutral [18]. - **Laying hen inventory**: The inventory of laying hens remains at a high level. The growth rate of normal new production capacity is relatively stable, and the elimination is delayed, which may lead to an increase in phased supply [18]. 3.4 Elimination End - The elimination of backward production capacity has started but has not entered an accelerated phase. The price of eliminated chickens has fallen from a high level, the elimination volume has been increasing but is still at a four - year low, and the elimination age is around 520 days, showing an obvious downward trend [21]. 3.5 Other Factors Affecting Supply and Demand - **Seasonality**: The market is in a transition period from the off - season to the peak season, and a certain turnaround is expected to occur in mid - June [25]. - **Production area**: Currently, producers in the production areas are actively selling. With the increasing high - temperature weather, new chickens are constantly starting to lay eggs [25]. - **Consumption end**: The stocking is over, the overall demand is average, and the weather factor suppresses the egg price [25]. - **Substitute products**: Vegetable prices are about to enter a seasonally strong stage, which will support the egg price to some extent. Pork prices continue to weaken, and the substitution effect on eggs is not obvious. Other meat prices have shown a phased increase [27]. 3.6 Cost & Profit - **Cost end**: The price of corn is running at a high level, and the spot price of soybean meal is stable with a slight decline. The overall cost has oscillated and slightly decreased. Currently, the feed cost is about 2.4 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is about 2.7 yuan per catty [30]. - **Breeding profit**: The breeding profit has fallen below the feed cost and reached the comprehensive breeding cost. The seasonal weakness has not ended. The negative feedback of production capacity caused by profit losses is gradually taking effect, and attention should be paid to the elimination of backward production capacity [31]. 3.7 Capital and Basis - **Capital**: Short - term funds continue to operate at a high level without signs of leaving the market, and short - selling funds have obvious suppression [34]. - **Basis**: The basis is running at a low level. Currently, the overall contract shows a premium structure, which will continue to suppress the market in the short term. The basis has a strengthening trend in the later stage, which depends on when the spot price stabilizes [36]. 3.8 Spread - The decline of the spot price suppresses the near - month contracts, and the strategy is mainly to conduct reverse spreads in the phased period [39].

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 纯碱玻璃周报——2025.06.09 中原期货研究所：化工组 | 作者：刘培洋 | 研究助理：申文 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：F0290318 | 执业证书编号： F03117458 | | 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 | 0371-58620081 | | liupy_qh@ccnew.com | shenwen_qh@ccnew.com | 01 周度观点汇总 3 1.1 纯碱周度观点——供应压力回升 品种 主要逻辑 策略建议 风险提示 纯碱 1.供应 装置开工率80.76%（+2.19%），氨碱法75.65%（环比+4.24%），联碱法80.41%（+3.87%)；周 产量70.41万吨（+1.91万吨），轻碱产量32.18万吨（+0.66万吨），重碱产量38.22万吨（+1.25 万吨）。 2.需求 纯碱表需70.14万吨（-3.61万吨），轻碱表需35.01万吨（+2.30万吨），重碱表需35.12万吨 （-5.65万吨）。 3.库存 纯碱企业库存162.70万吨（+0.27万吨），轻碱库存79万吨（-2.83万吨），重碱库存 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 宏观氛围转暖 低位有所止跌 ——铁合金周报20250609 投 资 咨 询 部 ：彭博涵 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58630083 电 子 邮 箱 ：pengbh_qh@ccnew.com 执 业证书 编 号 ：F3076814 投资咨询 编 号 ：Z0016415 01 硅铁 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应：端午归来宁夏部分厂家复产，产量低位迅速回升。 需求：铁水产量见顶，成材进入淡季对合金需求转弱。 | | | | | 库存：钢厂库存回落，厂家库存止降回升。 | | 需求不及 | | | 成本：青海宁夏周度电费小降1分，成本重心继续回落。 | 短期观望或 | 预期/供 | | 硅铁 | | 反弹偏空。 | 应减产超 | | | 基差：盘面贴水幅度较大。 | | 预期 | | | 总结：上周硅铁供增需弱，受商品反弹氛围提振价格止跌。前期供应快速收缩带 | | | | | 动平衡表缺口不断扩大，近两周显性库存消化下降较快，但降库之后企业开工意 | | | | | ...