Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market may remain volatile due to China's sanctions on South Korean shipbuilders and the uncertain Sino - US trade friction. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core lies in the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building, and it is recommended to participate with light positions or wait and see [6]. - The overall atmosphere is still bearish despite the rebound of the SCFI index, and the market is under pressure to decline. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [6]. 3. Directory Summaries SCFIS and NCFI Freight Rate Indexes - On October 13, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1031.8 points, down 1.4% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 862.48 points, down 1.6% from the previous period [4]. - On October 10, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 818.97 points, up 11.50% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 698.67 points, up 11.39% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 844.43 points, down 0.34% from the previous period [4]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1160.42 points on October 10, up 45.90 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1068 USD/TEU, up 9.9% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US - West route was 1468 USD/FEU, up 10.76% from the previous period [4]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1014.78 points on October 10, down 6.7% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1287.15 points, down 8.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 777.77 points, down 5.7% from the previous period [4]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary value of the service - sector PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The preliminary value of the Eurozone's composite PMI in September was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in September was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [4]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing prosperity level. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and operation activities accelerated [5]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in September was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary value of the service - sector PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [5]. Market Conditions - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has not made substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The spot price has slightly decreased. The main contract on October 10, 2025, closed at 1570.0, down 3.04%, with a trading volume of 31,500 lots and an open interest of 28,100 lots, an increase of 3834 lots from the previous day [6]. - The situation in the Middle East is improving, but the overall atmosphere is still bearish, and the market is under pressure to decline [6]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [7]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions [7]. - Long - term strategy: Each contract is advised to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent direction [7]. - Circuit breakers: The circuit breakers for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18%. - Margin: The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - Intra - day opening limit: The intra - day opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [7]. Geopolitical Situation - There are conflicting reports about the cease - fire in the Israel - Hamas conflict. Israel's military radio reported that the Israeli Defense Forces would withdraw to the "preliminary withdrawal line" soon, and the cease - fire agreement had taken effect. However, other media reported that Israeli attacks on multiple areas in Gaza continued. Hamas senior official Khalil al - Hayya announced the achievement of a cease - fire agreement, stating that "the war in Gaza is over" [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation with a downward bias [2] - Rebar and wire rod: Oscillation with a downward bias [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bonds: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bonds: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bonds: Uptrend [4] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Increased volatility [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [6] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a downward bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillation [7] - PX: Wait - and - see [7] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Views - The black industry is affected by trade frictions, policy regulations, and supply - demand relationships. The prices of iron ore, coking coal, coke, rebar, etc. are expected to oscillate or adjust. The key lies in the demand for steel products in October and the implementation of relevant policies [2]. - The financial market is influenced by factors such as economic data, trade policies, and central bank operations. The market sentiment has improved, but it is still recommended to reduce risk appetite. The prices of stocks, bonds, and precious metals have different trends [4]. - The light industry and agricultural products markets are affected by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and macro - environment. The prices of logs, pulp, oils, and agricultural products are expected to have different trends, and attention should be paid to factors such as supply changes and demand recovery [6][7]. - The polyester industry is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost support, and oil price trends. The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are expected to follow cost fluctuations or be in a wait - and - see state [9]. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Trade frictions and supply - side news affect market sentiment. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and the key lies in the demand for steel products in October [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Tariff expectations and supply - side policies affect the market. The supply of coking coal has eased, and the demand for coke is strong. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities and policy implementation [2]. - **Rebar**: The supply pressure is relatively large, and the demand recovery in October is the key. The price needs to cooperate with rapid de - stocking to stabilize [2]. - **Glass**: The short - term supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly. The market expects policy implementation, but the new - start strength is difficult to recover quickly in the fourth quarter [2]. Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market sentiment has improved, but it is still recommended to reduce risk appetite and control positions [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The market trend is slightly rebounding, and long - positions can be held lightly [4]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to oscillate strongly, affected by factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks [4]. Light Industry and Agricultural Products - **Logs**: The supply will increase after the holiday, and the demand is expected to gradually recover. The price is expected to have increased volatility, and the macro - impact may dominate [6]. - **Pulp**: The cost support for the pulp price is weakening, and the demand improvement needs to be verified. The price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - **Offset paper**: The supply is stable, and the demand is expected to improve. The price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Oils**: The high inventory of palm oil and the supply increase of soybeans put pressure on the market. The price is expected to oscillate widely [6]. - **Meal Products**: The supply of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate downward [6]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. - **Rubber**: The supply pressure has decreased, and the demand has increased. The price is expected to oscillate widely [7]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: The market is worried about future supply over - capacity, and the price follows oil price fluctuations [7]. - **PTA**: The cost support is weak, and the supply - demand relationship has marginally improved. The price follows cost fluctuations [9]. - **MEG**: The port inventory has increased, and the supply pressure is increasing. The price is affected by cost fluctuations [9]. - **PR and PF**: The market is waiting for new information, and the price is expected to be in a wait - and - see state or continue to be sorted weakly [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Each shipping company has issued price adjustment notices, but there are no short - term conditions to support price increases. The futures market may fluctuate at a low level, and it is not recommended to increase positions. Instead, stop - loss should be set [2] - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [5] - The main contract remains weak in the short term, while the far - month contracts are relatively strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to take profits. Attention should be paid to the subsequent market trend, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Stop - loss should be set [6] - In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position for the arbitrage strategy [6] - For the long - term strategy, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts reach a high level, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Shipping Freight Index - On October 13, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1031.8 points, down 1.4% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 862.48 points, down 1.6% from the previous period [3] - On October 10, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 818.97 points, up 11.50% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 698.67 points, up 11.39% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 844.43 points, down 0.34% from the previous period [3] - On October 10, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1160.42 points, up 45.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1068 USD/TEU, up 9.9% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1468 USD/FEU, up 10.76% from the previous period [3] - On October 10, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1014.78 points, down 6.7% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1287.15 points, down 8.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 777.77 points, down 5.7% from the previous period [3] Economic Indicators - In the eurozone, the preliminary September manufacturing PMI was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary services PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The preliminary composite PMI was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The September Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [3] - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month [4] - In the US, the preliminary September S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary services PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [4] Market Conditions - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The current spot price has slightly decreased [5] - On October 10, the main contract 2512 closed at 1570.0, down 3.04%, with a trading volume of 31,500 lots and an open interest of 28,100 lots, an increase of 3834 lots from the previous day [5] - The situation in the Middle East is improving, but although the SCFI index has rebounded, the overall atmosphere is still bearish and the market is under pressure to decline [5] Geopolitical Situation - On October 10, according to Israel Army Radio, the Israeli Defense Forces will soon withdraw to the "preliminary withdrawal line" area as planned by President Trump. However, according to some media reports, the Israeli military's attacks on multiple areas in Gaza are still ongoing [7] - On October 9, Hamas senior official and chief negotiator Khalil al - Hayya announced the achievement of a cease - fire agreement, but he did not mention issues such as Hamas disarmament and the transfer of Gaza's management rights in Trump's "20 - point plan" [7] Contract Rules Adjustment - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18% [6]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [6]. - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatility [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatility with a downward bias [2] - Rebar: Volatility with a downward bias [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Volatility [4] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Volatility [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Downward [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury Bond Futures: Volatility [4] - 5-year Treasury Bond Futures: Volatility [4] - 10-year Treasury Bond Futures: Upward [4] - Gold: Bullish volatility [4] - Silver: Bullish volatility [4] - Logs: Increased volatility [5] - Pulp: Consolidation at the bottom [5] - Offset paper: Volatility [5] - Soybean oil: Wide-range volatility [5] - Palm oil: Wide-range volatility [5] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range volatility [5] - Soybean meal: Volatility with a downward bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Volatility with a downward bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Volatility with a downward bias [5] - Soybean No. 1: Volatility [6] - Live pigs: Volatility with a downward bias [6] - Rubber: Wide-range volatility [6] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Volatility [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Views - The black sector is affected by trade frictions, supply concerns, and policy factors. Steel demand in October is crucial for the iron ore and steel markets. The coal and coke markets face supply and demand adjustments, and attention should be paid to low-suction opportunities and policy implementation [2]. - The stock index market is affected by economic data, international trade relations, and policy factors. Market risk aversion has increased, and it is recommended to reduce risk appetite and control positions for long positions in stock index futures [4]. - The bond market has seen a slight rebound, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bond futures with a light position [4]. - The precious metals market is influenced by factors such as interest rates, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases. Gold and silver are expected to show bullish volatility [4]. - The forest products market has a small supply peak after the holiday, and the demand is expected to gradually recover. The price of logs is expected to have increased volatility, while pulp is expected to consolidate at the bottom [5]. - The oil and fat market is affected by factors such as inventory, production, and policy. It is expected to continue the wide-range volatility pattern, and attention should be paid to soybean planting in Brazil and palm oil production and sales in Malaysia [5]. - The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and trade relations. The prices of soybeans, soybean meal, and live pigs are expected to show different trends, and attention should be paid to relevant factors such as planting progress and market demand [5][6]. - The soft commodities market has a complex supply and demand situation, and the price of rubber is expected to show wide-range volatility [6]. - The polyester market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are expected to show different trends, and attention should be paid to relevant factors such as supply and demand and cost fluctuations [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Trade frictions and supply concerns have affected market sentiment. The short-term iron ore price is expected to remain volatile. The key lies in steel demand in October. If steel demand is lower than expected, it may lead to a negative feedback loop [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Tariff expectations and supply factors have suppressed the market. The supply of coking coal has eased, while the demand for coke remains high. The first round of price increases for coke has been implemented, but the second round has basically failed. Attention should be paid to low-suction opportunities and policy implementation [2]. - **Rebar**: The static valuation of rebar is low, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The key lies in the demand recovery in October. The market has a short-term replenishment demand, but the demand is difficult to improve fundamentally. The steel market is expected to continue to fluctuate and adjust [2]. - **Glass**: The short-term supply and demand pattern of glass has not improved significantly, and the inventory has increased. The demand is dragged down by the real estate market. The price is expected to continue to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to demand recovery in the peak season and production capacity policies [2]. Financial Market - **Stock index futures/options**: The stock index market is affected by economic data, international trade relations, and policy factors. Market risk aversion has increased, and it is recommended to reduce risk appetite and control positions for long positions in stock index futures [4]. - **Treasury bond futures**: The bond market has seen a slight rebound, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bond futures with a light position [4]. Precious Metals Market - **Gold and silver**: The precious metals market is influenced by factors such as interest rates, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases. Gold and silver are expected to show bullish volatility. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate policy and geopolitical risks [4]. Forest Products Market - **Logs**: After the holiday, the supply of logs will have a small peak, and the demand is expected to gradually recover. The price of logs is expected to have increased volatility. Attention should be paid to market supply and demand and price trends [5]. - **Pulp**: The price of pulp is expected to consolidate at the bottom. The cost support is weak, and the demand improvement needs to be verified. Currently, paper mills purchase raw materials based on rigid demand [5]. Oil and Fat Market - **Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil**: The oil and fat market is affected by factors such as inventory, production, and policy. It is expected to continue the wide-range volatility pattern. Attention should be paid to soybean planting in Brazil and palm oil production and sales in Malaysia [5]. Agricultural Products Market - **Soybean No. 2, soybean No. 1, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal**: The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and trade relations. The prices of soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are expected to show different trends. Attention should be paid to relevant factors such as planting progress and market demand [5][6]. - **Live pigs**: The supply of live pigs is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak. The price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to market supply and demand and price trends [6]. Soft Commodities Market - **Rubber**: The supply and demand situation of rubber is complex. The price is expected to show wide-range volatility. Attention should be paid to factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and weather conditions [6]. Polyester Market - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF**: The polyester market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are expected to show different trends. Attention should be paid to relevant factors such as supply and demand and cost fluctuations [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term lack of conditions to support price increases, with the futures market likely to fluctuate at a low level. Do not recommend further adding positions and set stop - losses [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building, suggesting light - position participation or observation [5]. - In the short - term, the main contract remains weak while the far - month contracts are stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors are advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses. In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations, so it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. In the long - term, each contract is advised to take profits when the price rises, and then wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before judging the subsequent direction [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 SCFIS, NCFI and Other Freight Rate Indexes - On October 13, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1031.8 points, a 1.4% decrease from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 862.48 points, a 1.6% decrease from the previous period [3]. - On October 10, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 818.97 points, an 11.50% increase from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 698.67 points, an 11.39% increase from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 844.43 points, a 0.34% decrease from the previous period [3]. - On October 10, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1160.42 points, a 45.90 - point increase from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1068 USD/TEU, a 9.9% increase from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1468 USD/FEU, a 10.76% increase from the previous period [3]. - On October 10, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1014.78 points, a 6.7% decrease from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1287.15 points, an 8.2% decrease from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 777.77 points, a 5.7% decrease from the previous period [3]. 3.2 PMI Data - In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing prosperity level. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.5%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities has accelerated [4]. - In September, the preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary value of the service industry PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The preliminary value of the Eurozone's composite PMI was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index in September was - 9.2, with an expected value of - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [3]. - In September, the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [4]. 3.3 Market and Policy - related Information - The extension of Sino - US tariffs continues, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has decreased slightly [5]. - On October 10, the main contract 2512 closed at 1570.0, a 3.04% decline, with a trading volume of 31,500 lots and an open interest of 28,100 lots, an increase of 3834 lots from the previous day [5]. - The situation in the Middle East continues to improve. Although the SCFI index has rebounded, the overall atmosphere remains bearish, and the market is under pressure to decline. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rate conditions [5]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6]. 3.4 Geopolitical Information - According to Israeli Army Radio on October 10, the Israeli Defense Forces will soon withdraw to the "preliminary withdrawal line" area as per US President Trump's plan. This withdrawal line is roughly the same as the control line of the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip before the large - scale offensive on Gaza City in September. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas has come into effect, and the Israeli army has stopped military operations in the Gaza Strip. However, according to reports from Al - Jazeera and the Palestinian Holy City News Network, the Israeli army's attacks on multiple areas such as Gaza City and Khan Younis are still ongoing [7]. - According to CCTV News on the evening of October 9, Khalil al - Hayya, a senior Hamas official and chief negotiator, issued a statement announcing the achievement of a cease - fire agreement. This is the first public statement by the Hamas negotiation delegation since the first - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza was reached. Khalil al - Hayya said that Hamas has received guarantees from mediators including the US. "The war in Gaza is over." Khalil al - Hayya mentioned the cease - fire, the withdrawal of the Israeli army, the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza, the opening of border ports, and the exchange of Israeli detainees and Palestinian prisoners in the statement, but did not mention issues such as Hamas' disarmament and the transfer of Gaza's management rights in US President Trump's "20 - point plan" [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatility [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak volatility [2] - Rolled steel: Weak volatility [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50: Volatility [2] - CSI 300: Volatility [4] - CSI 500: Downward [4] - CSI 1000: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatility [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatility [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Strong volatility [4] - Silver: Strong volatility [4] - Logs: Increased volatility [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Volatility [6] - Soybean oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Palm oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Soybean meal: Bearish volatility [6] - Rapeseed meal: Bearish volatility [6] - Soybean No. 2: Bearish volatility [6] - Soybean No. 1: Bearish volatility [6] - Live pigs: Weak volatility [8] - Rubber: Volatility [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Volatility [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The black industry is affected by Trump's tariff pressure and supply-side uncertainties, with weak unilateral drivers for iron ore and varying trends for other products [2] - The financial market shows mixed trends in stock indexes and bonds, with gold and silver expected to be strong due to various factors [4] - The light industry products have different price trends based on supply, demand, and cost factors, such as logs with increased volatility and pulp in consolidation [6] - The agricultural products face challenges in supply and demand, with livestock products like live pigs having a weak short-term outlook and rubber showing volatility [8] - The polyester industry has complex supply-demand relationships, with different products having different investment ratings and price trends [9] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Supply concerns arise from pricing disputes and accidents, with short-term focus on steel demand and potential negative feedback [2] - Coking coal and coke: Tariff expectations and supply factors influence the market, with coke's first-round price increase implemented and second-round likely to fail [2] - Rolled steel: Static valuation is low, supply pressure is significant, and demand recovery in October is crucial, with high inventory and weak demand putting pressure on prices [2] - Glass: Supply and demand show no significant improvement, with inventory accumulation and weak demand due to the real estate downturn, and potential policy impact on the future [2] Financial Market - Stock indexes: Most indexes show negative trends, with market sentiment affected by trade and economic data, and investors advised to control risk [4] - Bonds: Treasury bond yields show slight fluctuations, with the central bank's open market operations affecting liquidity, and long-term bonds showing a slight upward trend [4] - Precious metals: Gold and silver are expected to be strong due to factors such as central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies [4] Light Industry - Logs: Supply is expected to increase after the holiday, with demand gradually recovering, and prices likely to be more volatile [6] - Pulp: Cost support weakens, demand improvement is uncertain, and prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - Offset paper: Production is stable, demand may improve with new tenders, but price profit is low, and prices are expected to fluctuate [6] - Oils and fats: Supply is abundant, demand is weak after the holiday, and prices are expected to continue wide-range fluctuations, with attention on production and sales in relevant regions [6] - Meal products: Supply is expected to increase, demand is limited, and prices are expected to be bearish, with attention on soybean planting and imports [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be weak in the short term, with a possible widening of the price difference between fat and lean pigs [8] - Rubber: Supply pressure varies by region, demand shows some improvement, and inventory is decreasing, with prices likely to fluctuate widely [8] Polyester Industry - PX: Supply increases and demand decreases, with prices following oil price fluctuations and PXN spreads under pressure [9] - PTA: Cost support may weaken, supply and demand improve marginally, and prices follow cost fluctuations [9] - MEG: Supply pressure increases, with expected medium-term oversupply, and short-term cost fluctuations affecting prices [9] - PR: The market is sluggish with no strong support from raw materials and supply-demand, and attention is on factory sales and downstream follow-up [9] - PF: Downstream demand is stable, external negative sentiment eases, and prices are expected to stabilize [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions and a general sharp decline in the external market, it is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [5]. - The overall atmosphere remains bearish despite the rebound of the SCFI index, and the market is under pressure to decline. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Rate Index - **SCFIS and NCFI**: On October 6, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1046.50 points, down 6.6% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 876.82 points, down 4.8%. On October 10, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 818.97 points, up 11.50%; the NCFI for the European route was 698.67 points, up 11.39%; the NCFI for the US - West route was 844.43 points, down 0.34% [3]. - **SCFI and CCFI**: On October 10, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1160.42 points, up 45.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1068 USD/TEU, up 9.9%; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1468 USD/FEU, up 10.76%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1014.78 points, down 6.7%; the CCFI for the European route was 1287.15 points, down 8.2%; the CCFI for the US - West route was 777.77 points, down 5.7% [3]. 3.2 PMI Data - **Eurozone**: In September, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line; the preliminary services PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4; the preliminary composite PMI was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2 [3]. - **China**: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating accelerated overall expansion of enterprise production and operation activities [4]. - **US**: In September, the preliminary S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52; the preliminary services PMI was 53.9; the preliminary composite PMI was 53.6 [4]. 3.3 Contract Information - On October 10, the main contract 2512 closed at 1570.0, down 3.04%, with a trading volume of 31,500 lots and an open interest of 28,100 lots, an increase of 3834 lots from the previous day [5]. 3.4 Strategy Suggestions - **Short - term strategy**: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - loss [6]. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [6]. - **Long - term strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [6]. 3.5 Other Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [6]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [6]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6]. 3.6 Geopolitical Situation - There are conflicting reports about the Israel - Hamas situation. Some reports say Israel's military operations have stopped, while others claim attacks on multiple areas in Gaza are continuing. A cease - fire agreement has been announced by a Hamas official, but some terms of Trump's "20 - point plan" are not mentioned [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade friction and the general sharp decline in the external market, it is not recommended to continue adding positions, and stop - loss should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [5]. - The short - term strategy suggests that the main contract remains weak while the far - month contracts are stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors are advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses. The arbitrage strategy recommends waiting and seeing or trying with a light position due to large fluctuations. The long - term strategy is to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the callback to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 SCFIS, NCFI and Other Freight Rate Indexes - On October 6, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Rate Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1046.50 points, down 6.6% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 876.82 points, down 4.8% from the previous period [3]. - On October 10, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Rate Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 818.97 points, up 11.50% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 698.67 points, up 11.39% from the previous period; the NCFI (US - West route) was 844.43 points, down 0.34% from the previous period [3]. - On October 10, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Rate Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1160.42 points, up 45.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1068 USD/TEU, up 9.9% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1468 USD/FEU, up 10.76% from the previous period [3]. - On October 10, the China Export Container Freight Rate Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1014.78 points, down 6.7% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1287.15 points, down 8.2% from the previous period; the CCFI (US - West route) was 777.77 points, down 5.7% from the previous period [3]. 3.2 PMI Data - The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The service industry PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The eurozone's September composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The eurozone's September Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [3]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [4]. - The preliminary value of the US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [4]. 3.3 Main Contract Information - On October 10, the main contract 2512 closed at 1570.0, down 3.04%, with a trading volume of 31,500 lots and an open interest of 28,100 lots, an increase of 3834 lots from the previous day [5]. 3.4 Geopolitical Situation - On October 10, Israeli radio reported that the Israeli Defense Forces would soon withdraw to the "preliminary withdrawal line" area as planned by President Trump. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas has taken effect, but some reports claim that the Israeli military's attacks on multiple areas in Gaza continue [7]. - On the evening of October 9, local time, Hamas senior official and chief negotiator Khalil al - Hayya announced the achievement of a cease - fire agreement, stating that "the Gaza war is over" [7]. 3.5 Contract Policy Adjustments - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile and weakening [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Adjusting [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 50: Volatile [4] - CSI 300: Volatile [4] - CSI 500: Downward [4] - CSI 1000: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 5-year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Upward [4] - Gold: Strongly volatile [4] - Silver: Strongly volatile [4] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Offset paper: Volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Widely volatile [6] - Palm oil: Widely volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Widely volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [6] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and bullish [7] - Rubber: Volatile [7] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Volatile [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Views - The black sector is affected by tariff expectations, and the price trends of different varieties vary. The financial market is influenced by trade policies, and the bond and precious metal markets show specific trends. The light industrial and agricultural product markets are affected by supply and demand, policies, and weather. The polyester market has complex supply and demand situations and price trends [2][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Affected by Trump's tariff pressure and supply-side news, the short-term unilateral drive is not strong, and the price trend is relatively stronger than that of finished products. The key lies in steel demand after the holiday [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Tariff expectations suppress the black sector. Domestic coking coal production is expected to be lower than last year, and the demand for coke is strong. The first round of coke price increases has been implemented, and the second round has basically failed [2] - **Rebar and hot-rolled coils**: The static valuation of rebar is low, and the supply pressure is slightly high. Focus on the demand recovery in October. The high supply and continuous inventory accumulation of finished products bring pressure, and the price needs to cooperate with rapid de-stocking to stabilize [2] - **Glass**: The short-term supply and demand pattern has not improved significantly, and the inventory has increased. The real estate completion decline drags down the demand. Pay attention to the demand repair in the peak season and production capacity policies [2] - **Soda ash**: The short-term supply and demand are basically balanced. Pay attention to the marginal repair in the peak season [2] Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: The stock index closed down in the previous trading day. Soft drinks and forestry sectors had capital inflows, while semiconductors and computer hardware sectors had outflows. The market risk aversion sentiment has increased, and it is recommended to reduce risk preference [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has declined, and the market trend is upward. Hold long positions in Treasury bonds [4] - **Gold and silver**: Gold is in a strongly volatile state. Its pricing mechanism is changing, and it is affected by factors such as the US debt problem, interest rates, geopolitical risks, and physical demand. Silver also shows a similar trend [4] Light Industry and Agriculture - **Logs**: The port daily shipment volume has increased, the supply pressure is not large, and the cost support has increased. It is expected to be range-bound [6] - **Pulp**: The spot market price has mixed trends, and the cost support has increased. However, the demand improvement is uncertain, and it is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - **Offset paper**: The spot market price is stable, the production is relatively stable, and the demand is expected to improve. It is expected to be volatile [6] - **Oils and fats**: The global trade situation is deteriorating, and the supply of oils and fats is abundant. It is expected to continue the wide-range volatile pattern [6] - **Meal products**: The global trade relationship has deteriorated, and the supply pressure of meal products is increasing. It is expected to be volatile and bearish [6] - **Live pigs**: The average transaction weight is declining, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [7] - **Rubber**: The supply pressure in Yunnan has decreased, and the production in Hainan is lower than expected. The demand and inventory situation are complex, and it is expected to be volatile [7] Polyester Industry - **PX**: The supply and demand are increasing, and the price follows the oil price [8] - **PTA**: The supply and demand have marginally improved, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The price follows the cost [8] - **MEG**: The port inventory has increased, the supply pressure has increased, and the short-term cost fluctuates greatly [8] - **PR**: The post-holiday replenishment is weak, and the market may be volatile and weak [8] - **PF**: The cost support is still weak, but the downstream start-up is stable. It is expected to be volatile and sorted [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is continuously declining, and there may be a full - scale cease - fire. The far - month contracts have significantly declined, meeting the daily report's expectations. It is not recommended to continue adding positions, and stop - loss should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [5]. - Pay attention to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Shipping Indexes - On October 6, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1046.50 points, a 6.6% decline from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 876.82 points, a 4.8% decline [3]. - On September 26, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 717.36 points, an 8.47% decline; for the European route, it was 614.14 points, an 8.83% decline; for the US - West route, it was 868.22 points, an 8.11% decline [3]. - On September 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1114.52 points, a decline of 83.69 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 971 USD/TEU, a 7.70% decline; the SCFI US - West route was 1460 USD/FEU, a 10.76% decline [3]. - On September 26, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1087.41 points, a 2.9% decline; for the European route, it was 1401.91 points, a 4.7% decline; for the US - West route, it was 824.92 points, a 2.4% increase [3]. b. Economic Data - In the Eurozone, the September manufacturing PMI flash was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The services PMI flash rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The September composite PMI flash was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The September Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [3]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing sentiment. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating an acceleration in the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities [4]. - In the US, the September S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash was 52 (August final value: 53); the services PMI flash was 53.9 (August final value: 54.5); the composite PMI flash was 53.6 (August final value: 54.6) [4]. c. Market Situation and Strategies - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The spot price has slightly decreased [5]. - On October 9, the main contract 2512 closed at 1688.0, a 1.81% decline, with a trading volume of 41,500 lots and an open interest of 24,200 lots, an increase of 3451 lots from the previous day [5]. - During the holiday, the SCFIS index continued to decline, and the Israel - Palestine situation showed signs of easing, leading to a bearish sentiment in the market and wide - range fluctuations [5]. - **Short - term strategy**: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are stronger, in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [6]. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic and has large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [6]. - **Long - term strategy**: All contracts are advised to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to pull back and stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [6]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6]. d. Geopolitical News - On October 9, Palestinian President Abbas welcomed the efforts to reach a cease - fire agreement in the Gaza Strip, which includes cease - fire, Israeli withdrawal, and access to humanitarian aid. He hopes the agreement can pave the way for a permanent political solution and end the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory [7]. - On the same day, the Israeli Defense Forces said they had evaluated the situation overnight, and the IDF Chief of Staff instructed the troops to prepare for various situations, welcomed the agreement on the return of the detained persons, and would continue to act to achieve the military operation goals in the Gaza Strip [7].