交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 7 月 18 日星期五 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-7-18） | | | | 铁矿：近期反内卷政策提振黑色市场情绪，铁矿石盘面大幅拉涨。矿山季 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 末冲量基本结束，全球铁矿发运有一定程度下降，近端到港量由于前期发 | | | | | 运高位环比增加，后续供应依然宽松。产业端淡季，五大钢材产量降，但 | | | 铁矿石 | 上行 | 铁水产量环比涨 2.63 万吨至 242.44 万吨，铁矿港口库存小幅累库，铁矿 | | | | | 基本面短期尚可。供给侧改革消息扰动叠加唐山限产带动黑色价格上涨， | | | | | 原料跟涨。中长期看，铁矿石中长期看整体呈现供应逐步回升、需求相对 | | | | | 低位、港口库存步入累库通道的局面，供需过剩格局不变，介于短期情绪 | | | | | 扰动，短期大幅拉涨并突破 750 元/吨一线，铁矿偏强为主。 | | | | | 煤焦：焦炭首轮提涨尘埃落定，刚需变化不大，短期内焦炭价格维持涨势。 | | | 煤焦 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term market may rebound, but due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with light positions or wait and see [2][4]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - On July 16, the main contract 2510 closed at 1598.1, with a 1.4% increase, a trading volume of 96,500 lots, and an open interest of 50,500 lots, an increase of 3,849 lots from the previous day [4]. - The basis continued to converge, but the spot market lacked sufficient momentum to support the continuous upward movement of futures prices. The main contract opened high and closed low but still rose slightly [4]. Freight Index - On July 14, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2,421.94 points, up 7.3% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1,266.59 points, down 18.7% [3]. - On July 11, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1,218.03 points, down 3.19% from the previous period; the European route was 1,435.21 points, down 0.50%; the US - West route was 1,186.59 points, up 0.85% [3]. - On July 11, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1,733.29 points, down 30.20 points from the previous period; the European line price was 2,099 USD/TEU, down 0.10%; the US - West route was 2,194 USD/FEU, up 5.03% [3]. - On July 11, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1,313.70 points, down 2.2% from the previous period; the European route was 1,726.41 points, up 1.9%; the US - West route was 1,027.49 points, down 5.2% [3]. PMI and Investor Confidence Index - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, service PMI was 50 (a two - month high), and composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [3]. - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May [3]. - US Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value in June was 52, service PMI was 53.1 (a two - month low), and composite PMI was 52.8 (a two - month low) [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are recommended to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300). If it continues to pull back today, consider adding positions; consider shorting the EC2512 contract above 1950 [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, with a positive spread structure and large fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the pull - back to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Policy Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [5]. - The margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [5]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Upward [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Upward [2] - Rolled Steel: Sideways [2] - Glass: Upward [2] - Soda Ash: Sideways [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Sideways [4] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Sideways [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Sideways [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High - level Sideways [4] - Silver: Strong - trending [4] - Pulp: Sideways [5] - Logs: Sideways [5] - Soybean Oil: Sideways with an Upward Bias [5] - Palm Oil: Sideways with an Upward Bias [5] - Rapeseed Oil: Sideways with an Upward Bias [5] - Soybean Meal: Wide - range Fluctuation [5] - Rapeseed Meal: Wide - range Fluctuation [5] - Soybean No. 2: Wide - range Fluctuation [5] - Soybean No. 1: Wide - range Fluctuation [5] - Live Pigs: Rebound [7] - Rubber: Sideways [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Short on Highs [9] - MEG: Short on Highs [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Viewpoints - The black industry is affected by supply - side reform news and production restrictions in Tangshan, with short - term price fluctuations. The iron ore market has short - term strength but a long - term oversupply situation. The coking coal and coke market may see increased supply, and downstream demand is weakening. The rolled steel market has limited supply - demand contradictions in the short term, and the glass market has short - term supply contraction expectations [2]. - In the financial sector, the stock index shows different trends, and the bond market has a narrow - range rebound. Gold is affected by multiple factors and is expected to maintain high - level sideways movement [4]. - The pulp and log markets have a supply - demand dual - weak pattern. The oil and fat market is supported by biodiesel expectations, while the粕类 market is affected by US soybean production and trade policies [5]. - The live pig market has a downward trend in transaction weight and a possible decline in the weekly average price due to increased supply and weak demand. The rubber market has tight supply and weak demand, with inventory adjustments [7][9]. - The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF in the polyester sector have different supply - demand and price trends, with some suggesting short - selling opportunities on highs [9]. Summary by Category Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Season - end impulse of mines is basically over, global iron ore shipments decline, proximal arrivals increase, and the supply is still abundant. The iron ore price is strong in the short term due to sentiment disturbances but has a long - term oversupply pattern [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Supply may increase as some coal mines and coke enterprises are expected to resume production. Coke enterprises' profits shrink, downstream demand weakens, and inventory pressure increases [2]. - **Rolled Steel**: The "anti - involution" policy boosts supply - side sentiment, but the market is affected by the less - than - expected central urban work conference. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent in the short term [2]. - **Glass**: Spot prices decline slightly, inventory decreases, and the long - term demand is difficult to recover significantly. The short - term price is supported by policies [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The short - term valuation is relatively low, and the price is sideways with a slightly upward bias, depending on downstream demand recovery [2]. Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Different stock indices show various trends, with capital flowing in and out of different sectors. The economic data reflects certain resilience [4]. - **Treasury Bond**: The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations, and the bond market has a narrow - range rebound [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is affected by multiple factors such as currency, finance, safety - hedge, and commodity attributes, and is expected to maintain high - level sideways movement. Silver is strong - trending [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost price drops, the papermaking industry's profit is low, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in a supply - demand dual - weak pattern [5]. - **Logs**: The arrival volume is expected to decrease, the daily shipment volume is low, and the market is in a supply - demand dual - weak pattern, while the impact of futures delivery needs attention [5]. Oil, Fat, and Oilseed Meal - **Oils and Fats**: The production of Malaysian palm oil decreases, but inventory increases. The domestic oil inventory rises, and the market is supported by biodiesel expectations [5]. - **Oilseed Meal**: The US soybean production and trade policies affect the market, and the domestic soybean import volume is large, with the price showing wide - range fluctuations [5]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The transaction weight may decline slightly, the slaughter enterprise's settlement price is volatile, and the opening rate may continue to decline, with the weekly average price possibly falling [7]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply is tight due to weather conditions, the demand is weak, and the inventory is in the adjustment stage, with the price expected to be in wide - range fluctuations [9]. Polyester Sector - **PX**: The supply is tight in the short term, and the price follows the oil price [9]. - **PTA**: The supply increases, the downstream load decreases, and the medium - term supply - demand weakens, with the price following the cost in the short term [9]. - **MEG**: The port inventory decreases slightly, but the supply pressure may appear in the medium term, and the price is under pressure [9]. - **PR**: The cost support weakens, and the market is in a weak - stable pattern [9]. - **PF**: The terminal demand is weak, and the price may continue to be weak and sideways [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The far - month basis has been repaired, meeting the daily report's expectations. With the US Treasury Secretary stating that China - US negotiations are in a "good situation", investors can consider partial profit - taking if the market rises today [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [3]. - The short - term market is expected to rebound. Risk - takers who went long on the 2510 contract below 1300 can consider partial profit - taking if it continues to rise today, and it is recommended to short the EC2512 contract lightly above 1650 (with a stop - loss if participating). In the context of international situation turmoil, the structure is mainly in positive carry, with large fluctuations, so it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. For the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before judging the subsequent direction [4]. Summary by Related Content Shipping Indexes - On July 14, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2421.94 points, up 7.3% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1266.59 points, down 18.7% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1218.03 points, down 3.19% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1435.21 points, down 0.50% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1186.59 points, up 0.85% from the previous period [2]. - On July 11, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1733.29 points, down 30.20 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 2099 USD/TEU, down 0.10% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2194 USD/FEU, up 5.03% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1313.70 points, down 2.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1726.41 points, up 1.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 1027.49 points, down 5.2% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - In the Eurozone, the preliminary manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous 49.4), the preliminary services PMI was 50 (a two - month high, expected 50, previous 49.7), the preliminary composite PMI was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous 50.2), and the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous - 8.1) [2]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, the same as in April, and back above the critical point [2]. - In the US, the preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52 (the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest since February); the preliminary services PMI was 53.1 (lower than the previous 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low); the preliminary composite PMI was 52.8 (lower than the previous 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low) [2]. Market and Policy - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further hit re - trade. The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. Some shipping companies announced price increases, and the spot market had a small price increase to test the market, with a slight rebound in the market [3]. - On July 15, the main contract 2510 closed at 1655.6, up 15.38%, with a trading volume of 107,800 lots and an open interest of 46,600 lots, an increase of 13,685 lots from the previous day [3]. - The sharp rise in the SCFIS for the European route drove bullish sentiment. With the roll - over of the main contract and the basis repair logic, the 2510 contract rose significantly. Future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. Trade Tensions - The EU is prepared to impose additional counter - tariffs on US imports worth about 84 billion US dollars if the US - EU trade negotiation fails. Trump announced on July 12 that he would impose a 30% tariff on some EU imports starting from August 1 [5]. - A US Republican senator threatened countries including China with a 500% tariff if they continue to trade with Russia. China firmly opposes any illegal unilateral sanctions and long - arm jurisdiction and hopes for peaceful solutions to the Ukraine crisis [5]. Trading Regulations - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Upward [2] - Coking coal and coke: Upward [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Sideways [2] - Glass: Upward [2] - Soda ash: Sideways [2] - SSE 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Sideways [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High-level sideways [4] - Silver: Bullish [4] - Pulp: Sideways [5] - Logs: Sideways [5] - Edible oils: Bullish [5] - Meal products: Wide-range sideways [5] - Live pigs: Rebound [8] - Rubber: Sideways [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Short on rallies [10] - MEG: Short on rallies [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [10] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities and financial products, including black commodities, financial futures, precious metals, light industrial products, agricultural products, and chemical products. It provides investment ratings and key factors affecting each product's price movement, suggesting corresponding investment strategies based on the current market situation and future expectations [2][4][5][8][10] Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Short-term sentiment drives prices up, but in the long run, supply will increase, demand will remain low, and port inventories will accumulate [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supply may increase as mines resume production, and attention should be paid to the trends of hot metal and coal-coke supply [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: "Anti-involution" policies boost supply-side sentiment, but overall demand is weak, and prices will fluctuate [2] - **Glass**: Supply may contract in the short term, but demand will decline seasonally, and prices will be high and volatile [2] - **Soda ash**: Short-term valuation is low, and prices are driven up by sentiment. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand [2] Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The economy shows resilience, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4] - **Treasury bonds**: Market interest rates are consolidating, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4] - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism is shifting, and multiple factors support high-level sideways movement [4] - **Silver**: Bullish due to various factors, including supply and demand and market sentiment [4] Light Industrial Products - **Pulp**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices will fluctuate [5] - **Logs**: Supply pressure eases, and prices will be stable with a sideways trend [5] Agricultural Products - **Edible oils**: Supply is abundant, but biofuel policies may boost prices, and they will be bullish with a sideways trend [5] - **Meal products**: USDA reports are bearish, but biofuel policies support prices, and they will fluctuate widely [5] - **Live pigs**: Supply is increasing, and demand is restricted by high temperatures, and prices may decline [8] - **Rubber**: Supply is affected by weather, demand is recovering structurally, and prices will fluctuate widely [10] Chemical Products - **PX**: Prices will follow oil prices due to tight supply in the short term [10] - **PTA**: Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and prices will follow costs [10] - **MEG**: Supply pressure may increase, and prices will be under pressure in the medium term [10] - **PR**: International oil prices are falling due to sanctions and production increases [10] - **PF**: Terminal demand is weak, and prices will continue to be weak [10]

Report Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings for each industry are provided in the report Core Views - The data reflects China's economic resilience, market risk aversion eases, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures; market interest rates are consolidating, treasury bonds are rebounding slightly, and it is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [2] - Under the "anti - involution" situation, the supply of finished steel may shrink; the expectation of old - city renovation and shantytown transformation has led to the entry of long - position funds, and the price increase of coke by mainstream coking plants will be implemented this week, driving the black sector to rise sharply [3] - Trump's latest tariff measures have escalated the trade war, and the resurgence of market risk aversion has boosted the gold price; the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has decreased, and this week's CPI data should be monitored; gold is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [4] - The spot price of logs is stable, the expected arrival volume will decrease month - on - month, the supply pressure will ease, and the daily average outbound volume has fallen below 60,000 cubic meters; the fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the impact of log futures delivery on log prices should be noted [5] - The production of natural rubber in domestic and foreign producing areas is increasing steadily, and there is still room for the raw material price to decline; port inventories remain high, and the weak fundamentals cannot support the continuous rise of rubber prices [6] - Due to the large arrival volume of soybeans and high - pressure oil extraction by oil mills, the inventories of three major oils are continuously rising; the supply is abundant and it is the off - season for demand, lacking self - driving force; however, palm oil is oscillating strongly due to the popular export, the rising expectation of biodiesel, and the rebound of international crude oil [7] - US tariff policies continue to pressure oil prices, PX is continuously destocking and fluctuates with oil prices; the supply - demand expectation of PTA is weakening and it will follow cost fluctuations in the short term; the raw materials are differentiated, but the supply - demand of MEQ is weakening, and the upside space of the futures price is restricted [8] - The market supply - demand stalemate is obvious; northern livestock farmers are forced to cut prices for promotion due to the pressure of selling livestock, while the south stabilizes the market by adjusting the supply rhythm; weak consumer demand restricts price increases, and the regional price difference is gradually widening; domestic hog prices are expected to maintain small fluctuations [9] Summary by Industry Stock and Bond - Data reflects China's economic resilience, market risk aversion eases, recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures; market interest rates are consolidating, treasury bonds are rebounding slightly, recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [2] Black - Under "anti - involution", finished steel supply may shrink; the expectation of old - city renovation and shantytown transformation has led to long - position funds, and the coke price increase by mainstream coking plants will be implemented this week, driving the black sector to rise sharply [3] Gold - Trump's tariff measures have escalated the trade war, market risk aversion has boosted the gold price; the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has decreased, and this week's CPI data should be monitored; gold is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [4] Logs - Spot price is stable, expected arrival volume will decrease month - on - month, supply pressure eases, daily average outbound volume has fallen below 60,000 cubic meters; fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and the impact of log futures delivery on log prices should be noted [5] Rubber - Production in domestic and foreign producing areas is increasing steadily, raw material price has room to decline; port inventories remain high, and weak fundamentals cannot support continuous rise of rubber prices [6] Oils - Due to large soybean arrival and high - pressure oil extraction, inventories of three major oils are rising; supply is abundant and it is the off - season for demand, lacking self - driving force; palm oil is oscillating strongly due to popular export, rising biodiesel expectation, and international crude oil rebound [7] Oil - related Chemicals - US tariff policies pressure oil prices, PX is destocking and fluctuates with oil prices; PTA supply - demand expectation is weakening and follows cost fluctuations in the short term; raw materials are differentiated, but MEQ supply - demand is weakening, and the upside space of the futures price is restricted [8] Livestock - Market supply - demand stalemate is obvious; northern farmers cut prices due to selling pressure, the south stabilizes the market by adjusting supply rhythm; weak consumer demand restricts price increases, regional price difference is widening; domestic hog prices are expected to maintain small fluctuations [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS maintains an upward trend, and the far - month contracts are making up for the premium. The market is influenced by geopolitical conflicts, tariff policies, and the Middle East situation, with mixed long and short information, leading to wide - range fluctuations in the market. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates. It is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [1][4]. - Short - term, the market may rebound. Risk - preferring investors are advised to take partial profit when the market surges today. In the long - term, take profit when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [1][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Freight Index - On July 14, compared with July 11, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route rose 7.3% to 2421.94 points, while the SCFIS for the US - West route fell 18.7% to 1266.59 points. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) dropped 3.19% to 1218.03 points, the NCFI for the European route fell 0.50% to 1435.21 points, and the NCFI for the US - West route rose 0.85% to 1186.59 points. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index fell 30.20 points, the SCFI for the European route dropped 0.10% to 2099 USD/TEU, and the SCFI for the US - West route rose 5.03% to 2194 USD/FEU. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) fell 2.2%, the CCFI for the European route rose 1.9%, and the CCFI for the US - West route fell 5.2% [1]. Economic Data - In the Eurozone in June, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.4, the preliminary services PMI was 50 (a two - month high), and the preliminary composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 points from May. In the US in June, the preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI was 52, the preliminary services PMI was 53.1, and the preliminary composite PMI was 52.8 [2]. Market Situation - Trump continues to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, and some shipping companies have announced freight rate increases. The US plans to impose a 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU, and the Middle East situation may ease. The market is filled with mixed long and short information, causing wide - range fluctuations in the market [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - preferring investors who went long on the 2510 contract below 1300 are advised to take partial profit when the market surges today. For the EC2512 contract, short lightly above 1650 and set stop - loss and take - profit levels. - Arbitrage: In the context of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or participate with a light position. - Long - term: Take profit when each contract rises, and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before determining the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 16%. - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 26%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The data reflects China's economic resilience, the market risk - aversion sentiment eases, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures; the market interest rate consolidates, the Treasury bond rebounds slightly, and it is recommended to hold light long positions in Treasury bonds [2] - Under the "anti - involution" situation, the supply of finished steel may shrink, and attention should be paid to the implementation of specific policy documents; the expectation of old - city renovation and shantytown transformation has spurred long - position funds, and the price increase of coke by mainstream coking plants will be implemented this week, leading to a sharp rise in the black sector [3] - Trump's latest tariff measures have escalated the trade war, the market risk - aversion sentiment has rebounded to boost the gold price; the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has decreased, and attention should be paid to this week's CPI data; it is expected that gold will maintain a high - level shock [4] - The spot price of logs is stable, the expected arrival volume will decrease month - on - month, the supply center will move down, the supply pressure will ease, the average daily outbound volume will remain above 60,000 cubic meters, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and attention should be paid to the impact of log futures delivery on log prices [5] - The production of natural rubber in domestic and foreign producing areas is steadily increasing, and there is still room for the raw material price to decline; the port inventory remains at a high level, and the weak fundamentals cannot support the continuous rise of rubber prices [6] - The USDA monthly report on US soybeans has a negative impact, the growth of US soybeans is good, and South American soybeans have a bumper harvest and continuous exports; about 10 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in July, the oil mill operating rate remains high, the oil mill pick - up volume has declined, the soybean meal inventory has continued to rise, and soybean meal will fluctuate weakly [7] - The possibility of new US sanctions supports oil prices, PX continues to destock and fluctuates with oil prices; the supply - demand expectation of PTA weakens and it will follow cost fluctuations in the short term; the raw materials have recovered, but the supply - demand of MEG weakens, and the upside space of the market is restricted [8] - The market supply - demand stalemate is obvious. Farmers in northern regions cut prices for promotion due to the pressure of selling livestock, while southern regions stabilize the market by adjusting the supply rhythm; the weak consumer demand restricts price increases, and the regional price difference gradually widens; it is expected that domestic hog prices will maintain small - scale fluctuations [9] Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock and Bond - Data shows China's economic resilience, market risk - aversion sentiment eases, hold long positions in stock index futures; market interest rate consolidates, Treasury bond rebounds slightly, hold light long positions in Treasury bonds [2] Black - "Anti - involution" may shrink finished steel supply, pay attention to policy implementation; old - city renovation expectation spurs long - position funds, coke price increase by coking plants will be implemented this week, leading to a sharp rise in the black sector [3] Gold - Trump's tariff measures escalate trade war, market risk - aversion boosts gold price; Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation decreases, pay attention to CPI data, gold to maintain high - level shock [4] Logs - Spot log price is stable, expected arrival volume to decrease, supply pressure eases, average daily outbound volume above 60,000 cubic meters, pay attention to futures delivery impact [5] Natural Rubber - Production in domestic and foreign areas increases, raw material price may decline, port inventory is high, weak fundamentals can't support price rise [6] Soybeans and Soybean Meal - USDA report on US soybeans is negative, US soybeans grow well, South American soybeans export continuously; about 10 million tons of imported soybeans in July, oil mill operating rate high, pick - up volume down, soybean meal inventory up, soybean meal to fluctuate weakly [7] Oil - Related Chemicals - US sanctions may support oil prices, PX destocks with oil price fluctuations; PTA supply - demand weakens, follows cost in short term; MEG supply - demand weakens, upside space restricted [8] Hogs - Market supply - demand stalemate, northern farmers cut prices, southern regions adjust supply, weak consumer demand restricts price, hog prices to fluctuate slightly [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, trading in the shipping market is challenging. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Situation - Trump plans to impose a unified tariff of 15% or 20% on almost all remaining trading partners, targeting Southeast Asian countries to crack down on re - export trade. The tariff negotiation date has been postponed to August 1st, and some shipping companies have announced freight rate increases. The spot market price range is set, with small price hikes to test the market, leading to a slight rebound in the market [2][4]. - The cease - fire in Gaza cannot be reached immediately, and the Houthi rebels continue to attack Israeli - related ships. Spot freight rates are stable, and the market is filled with mixed long and short information, causing the market to fluctuate widely [2]. - On July 11, the main contract 2508 closed at 2030.6, down 0.71%, with a trading volume of 34,600 lots and an open interest of 30,900 lots, a decrease of 403 lots from the previous day [2]. Freight Rate Index - On July 7, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2258.04 points, up 6.3% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1557.77 points, down 3.8% from the previous period [1]. - On July 11, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1218.03 points, down 3.19% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1435.21 points, down 0.50% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1186.59 points, up 0.85% from the previous period [1]. - On July 11, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1733.29 points, down 30.20 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 2099 USD/TEU, down 0.10% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2194 USD/FEU, up 5.03% from the previous period [1]. - On July 11, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1313.70 points, down 2.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1726.41 points, up 1.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 1027.49 points, down 5.2% from the previous period [1]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4, with an expected value of 49.8 and a previous value of 49.4. The preliminary value of the service PMI was 50, a two - month high, with an expected value of 50 and a previous value of 49.7. The preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.2, with an expected value of 50.5 and a previous value of 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2, with an expected value of - 6 and a previous value of - 8.1 [1]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, the same as in April, and back above the critical point [1]. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52, the same as in May, higher than the expected value of 51, the highest level since February; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.1, lower than the previous value of 53.7, higher than the expected value of 52.9, a two - month low; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 52.8, lower than the previous value of 53, higher than the expected value of 52.1, a two - month low [1]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market is likely to rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take a light long position below 1300 for the 2510 contract (already with a profit margin of over 100 points). Consider partial profit - taking when the market rallies today. For the EC2512 contract, a light short position is recommended above 1650, with stop - loss and take - profit levels set [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international instability, the market shows a positive - spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or take a light - position attempt [3]. - Long - term strategy: For all contracts, take profit when the price rallies, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [3]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16%. - The company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short - term bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Upward [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Upward [2] - Glass: Upward [2] - SSE 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Sideways [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High - level sideways [4] - Silver: High - level sideways [4] - Pulp: Sideways [6] - Logs: Sideways [6] - Soybean oil: Sideways [6] - Palm oil: Sideways [6] - Rapeseed oil: Sideways [6] - Soybean meal: Sideways [6] - Rapeseed meal: Sideways [6] - Soybean No.2: Sideways [6] - Soybean No.1: Sideways to bearish [6] - Live pigs: Rebound [8] - Rubber: Rebound [10] - PX: Wait - and - see [10] - PTA: Try shorting on rallies [10] - MEG: Try shorting on rallies [10] - PR: Wait - and - see [10] - PF: Wait - and - see [10] Core Views - The iron ore market is influenced by short - term sentiment with a short - term bullish trend, while in the long - term, it shows a pattern of oversupply. The coal - coking market is affected by supply - side reform and production resumption news, and attention should be paid to the trends of hot metal and supply. The rolled steel and rebar market rebounds due to supply - side policies, with mild supply - demand contradictions in the short term. The glass market has limited supply - demand contradictions in the short term but faces challenges in long - term demand [2]. - The stock index market reflects China's economic resilience, with reduced market risk - aversion sentiment, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures. The Treasury bond market has a narrow - range rebound, and it is recommended to hold long positions with a light position. The precious metals market, especially gold, is affected by multiple factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rates, and trade policies, and is expected to remain in a high - level sideways pattern [4]. - The pulp market has a weak supply - demand pattern and is expected to be sideways. The log market has reduced supply pressure and mild supply - demand contradictions. The oil and fat market has sufficient supply and is in a seasonal demand slump, with a short - term sideways trend. The agricultural products market, such as live pigs, is expected to continue the upward trend, and the rubber market is expected to have a wide - range sideways trend [6][8][10]. - The polyester market has different trends for different products. PX follows oil prices, PTA and MEG are recommended to try shorting on rallies, and PR and PF are in a wait - and - see state [10]. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Short - term bullish influenced by sentiment, long - term oversupply. Recent supply shows a decline in shipments and arrivals, but overall supply remains loose. High hot metal production drives port inventory reduction. In the long - term, supply will increase, demand will be at a low level, and port inventory will enter the accumulation stage [2]. - **Coal and coke**: Upward due to supply - side reform and production resumption news. Coke production enterprises face profit compression, and downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the trends of hot metal and supply [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: Upward. The supply - side "anti - involution" policy drives the rebound. In the off - season, demand shows a slight increase, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [2]. - **Glass**: Upward. The production capacity utilization rate is stable, and there is a weakening expectation in demand. The inventory is at a high level, and the long - term demand is difficult to recover significantly [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock index futures/options**: The stock index shows a certain upward trend, reflecting China's economic resilience. It is recommended to hold long positions as market risk - aversion sentiment eases [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The market has a narrow - range rebound, and it is recommended to hold long positions with a light position [4]. - **Precious metals**: Gold and silver are expected to remain in a high - level sideways pattern, affected by factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rates, trade policies, and geopolitical risks [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: Sideways. The supply - demand pattern is weak, with a decline in cost support and low acceptance of high - price pulp by paper mills [6]. - **Logs**: Sideways. The supply pressure is reduced, the supply center moves down, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Attention should be paid to the impact of log futures delivery on prices [6]. Oil, Fat and Feed Industry - **Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil**: Sideways. Supply is sufficient, demand is in a seasonal slump, and there is a lack of self - driving force. Palm oil may be relatively more supported due to production cuts in the origin [6]. - **Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.2, and soybean No.1**: Generally sideways. The soybean market is affected by factors such as planting area, weather, and exports. Attention should be paid to weather conditions in North America and South America and soybean arrivals [6]. Agricultural Products Industry - **Live pigs**: Rebound. The supply side has strong price - holding sentiment, and the demand side has increased procurement enthusiasm. It is expected to continue the upward trend [8]. - **Rubber**: Rebound. Supply is affected by weather, and demand has a structural recovery. Inventory shows different trends in different areas, and it is expected to have a wide - range sideways trend [10]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: Wait - and - see. It follows oil price fluctuations, and the short - term PXN spread has limited compression space [10]. - **PTA**: Try shorting on rallies. The cost fluctuates after a decline, and the supply - demand situation weakens in the medium term [10]. - **MEG**: Try shorting on rallies. Supply pressure may emerge, and it is gradually entering a supply - demand inventory accumulation stage [10]. - **PR and PF**: Wait - and - see. The industry has low confidence in the future, and the terminal demand is weak [10].