Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Sell on rallies [2] - Coking coal and coke: Low-level oscillation [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Low-level oscillation [2] - Glass: Low-level oscillation [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward movement [2] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward movement [2] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebound [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [3] - Silver: Stronger performance [3] - Pulp: Weak oscillation [5] - Logs: Oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [5] - Palm oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [5] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [5] - Soybean meal: Rebound [5] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [5] - Live pigs: Rebound [7] - Rubber: Rebound [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Wait-and-see [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [10] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the supply, demand, and inventory of various commodities and financial products, and provides corresponding investment ratings and trading strategies [2][3][5][7][9] - It also takes into account geopolitical factors, economic data, and policy changes to assess market trends and risks [2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments decreased, but remained at a high level. Steel production increased, and iron ore port inventories continued to decline. However, if iron water production falls below 2.4 million tons, iron ore prices may decline [2] - Coking coal and coke: Environmental inspections led to supply contraction, but demand weakened due to falling iron water production and coking enterprise production cuts. Coke prices faced downward pressure [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Entering the off-season, demand weakened, and the supply-demand structure continued to deteriorate. Prices were likely to fall [2] - Glass: There was no substantial positive news, and prices were in a low-level oscillation. Attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: Market sentiment improved, and it was recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [2][3][4] - Treasury bonds: Market interest rates were stable, and it was recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [3] - Precious metals: Gold prices were expected to oscillate at a high level, and silver was expected to perform strongly. Attention should be paid to interest rate policies and geopolitical risks [3] Light Industry - Pulp: Cost support weakened, and demand entered the off-season. Prices were expected to oscillate weakly [5] - Logs: Demand decreased, but the cost side's negative impact might weaken. Prices were expected to oscillate [5] Oil and Fat - Oils: The supply was abundant, and it was in the off-season for demand. However, the sector was boosted by international oil prices and US biofuel policies. It was expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [5] - Meals: The market was affected by weather and supply. Prices were expected to rebound, but the rebound space was restricted [5] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Supply pressure might increase, and demand was weak. However, low prices stimulated purchasing and rising feed costs provided support. Prices were expected to rebound [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply was tight due to rainfall, and demand showed a structural recovery. Inventories were decreasing. Prices were expected to rebound [9] Polyester - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF: The market was affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand. It was recommended to adopt a wait-and-see approach [9][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, some liner companies have announced price increases for early July, boosting bullish sentiment, but the market has large fluctuations, so it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [2][3] - The negotiation between China and the United States has no substantial progress, and the spot market price range is set. Without more positive news, the market is prone to fall rather than rise [3] - The CMA's price increase announcement and the ongoing Middle - East conflict lead to a strong oscillation in near - month contracts and a weak oscillation in far - month contracts due to many uncertainties [3] Summary According to Relevant Content Freight Index - On June 16, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1697.63 points, up 4.6% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 2908.68 points, up 33.1% from the previous period [2] - On June 13, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1536.84 points, down 7.94% from the previous period; the European route was 1307.92 points, up 16.4% from the previous period; the US West route was 2230.99 points, down 31.55% from the previous period [2] - On June 13, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 2088.24 points, down 152.11 points from the previous period; the European line price was 1844 USD/TEU, up 10.62% from the previous period; the US West route was 4120 USD/FEU, down 26.51% from the previous period [2] - On June 13, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1243.05 points, up 7.6% from the previous period; the European route was 1488.87 points, up 6.6% from the previous period; the US West route was 1094.58 points, up 5.8% from the previous period [2] Market and Policy Data - Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI was 49.4, service PMI was 48.9, and composite PMI was 49.5; the Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 [2] - In May, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April [2] - The US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3, service PMI was 52.3, and composite PMI was 52.1 [2] Contract and Strategy - On June 18, the closing price of the 2508 main contract was 2092.0, up 3.18%, with a trading volume of 75,700 lots and an open interest of 42,800 lots, a decrease of 1734 lots from the previous day [3] - Short - term strategy: The 2506 contract is based on the basis convergence logic; for the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try shorting lightly when it rebounds above 2250; for the 2510 contract, try going long below 1450 and set stop - losses [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff relaxation, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate. Temporarily focus on the positive spread structure [3] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3] - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2506 to 2604 is adjusted to 16%, and the company's margin is adjusted to 26%. The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [3] Geopolitical Situation - On June 17, Israeli officials announced the destruction of the central area of Iran's Natanz nuclear facility, and the US President Trump is more inclined to strike Iran's nuclear facilities [4] - The Israel - Iran conflict makes the shipping industry uneasy, and many ships are avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, which may lead to an increase in shipping costs [4]

| | | | | 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回落，主流矿山发运量小幅回落态势， 整体处于近年来同期高位水平。需求端铁水产量环比回落 0.19 万吨至 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 241.61 万吨，连续五周下行，基本面供需逐步宽松。铁矿港口库存仍旧在 | | | 铁矿石 | | 逢高沽空 | 去库，说明当前 240 的高铁水仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水持续回 | | | | | | 落状况。当前螺矿比和焦矿比已经处于历史较低水平，铁矿在黑色板块中 | | | | | | 估值相对偏高，需求进入季节性淡季，若铁水破 240 万吨，铁矿后期将承 | | | | | | 压下跌。策略上，前期空单建议继续持有，情绪性反弹可酌情加仓。 | | | | | | 煤焦：近日主产区环保检查升级，内蒙乌海及临汾地区停产煤矿及洗煤厂 | | | | | | 较多，供应端有所收缩。随着铁水产量下滑以及焦企减产，焦煤基本面难 | | | 煤焦 | | 低位震荡 | 言好转。焦炭方面，随着焦煤价格下跌，焦企入炉煤成本下降，多数企业 | | | | | | 保持在盈 ...

16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-18） | 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回落，主流矿山发运量小幅回落态势， | 整体处于近年来同期高位水平。需求端铁水产量环比回落 | 0.19 | 万吨至 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 241.61 | 万吨，连续五周下行，基本面供需逐步宽松。铁矿港口库存仍旧在 | 铁矿石 | 逢高沽空 | 去库，说明当前 | 240 | 的高铁水仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水持续回 | | | | | | | | 落状况。当前螺矿比和焦矿比已经处于历史较低水平，铁矿在黑色板块中 | 估值相对偏高，需求进入季节性淡季，若铁水破 | 240 | 万吨，铁矿后期将承 | | | | | | | | | | | 压下跌。策略上，前期空单建议继续持有，情绪性反弹可酌情加仓。 | 煤焦：部分煤矿因完成月度生产任务而停产或减产，但炼焦煤整体高供应 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 弱需求格局难以 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Amid the expansion of the Israel-Iran conflict, crude oil prices have soared by over 4%, and there is a strong sentiment of commodity rebound. However, due to the high difficulty of trading in the current geopolitical situation, it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [1][3]. - Given the lack of substantial progress in the second China-US talks and no new positive factors, the market is likely to decline rather than rise. The spot market price range is set, with slight price cuts to test the market [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Indexes - **NCFI**: The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1536.84 points on June 16, down 7.94% from the previous period. The NCFI European route was 1307.92 points, up 16.4%; the NCFI US West route was 2230.99 points, down 31.55% [1]. - **SCFIS**: The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1697.63 points on June 16, up 4.6%; the SCFIS US West route was 2908.68 points, up 33.1% [1]. - **SCFI**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 2088.24 points on June 13, down 152.11 points from the previous period. The SCFI European route price was 1844 USD/TEU, up 10.62%; the SCFI US West route was 4120 USD/FEU, down 26.51% [1][2]. - **CCFI**: The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1243.05 points on June 13, up 7.6%. The CCFI European route was 1488.87 points, up 6.6%; the CCFI US West route was 1094.58 points, up 5.8% [1][2]. Market Conditions - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil prices continued to surge by over 4% last night, increasing the trading difficulty for the European routes due to their strong macro - attributes [3]. - **Eurozone Economic Data**: In May, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous 49), the services PMI was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous 50.1), the composite PMI was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous 50.4), and the Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous - 19.5) [2]. - **China's Economic Data**: The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [2]. - **US Economic Data**: In May, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3 (expected 49.9, previous 50.2), the services PMI was 52.3 (expected 51, previous 50.8), and the composite PMI was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.6) [2]. Trading Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: For the 2506 contract, focus on the logic of basis convergence. For the 2508 contract, consider shorting with a light position when it rebounds above 2250; for the 2510 contract, consider going long below 1450, and set stop - losses [3]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Under the background of tariff relaxation, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate pattern. Pay attention to the court's ruling, and currently adopt a positive spread structure [3]. - **Long - term Strategy**: Take profits when each contract rallies, and wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before determining the subsequent direction [3]. Market News - **Geopolitical News**: On June 17, the Israeli military announced that it had killed Iranian top military commander Ali Shadmani, which is expected to further intensify the Israel - Iran conflict [4]. - **Environmental Cooperation News**: The 10th China - EU Environmental Policy Ministerial Dialogue was held in Brussels, and both sides agreed to deepen cooperation in the field of ecological environment [4]. Contract Adjustments - **Circuit Breakers**: The circuit breakers for contracts from 2506 to 2604 were adjusted to 16% [3]. - **Margin Requirements**: The margin requirements for contracts from 2506 to 2604 were adjusted to 26% [3]. - **Intraday Opening Limits**: The intraday opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [3].

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 6 月 17 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-17） | | | | 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回落，主流矿山发运量小幅回落态势， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 需求端铁水产量环比回落 0.19 万吨至 241.61 万吨，连续五周下行，基本 | | | | | 面供需逐步宽松。铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，说明当前 240 的高铁水仍旧 | | | 铁矿石 | 逢高沽空 | 能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水持续回落状况。当前螺矿比和焦矿比已经 | | | | | 处于历史较低水平，铁矿在黑色板块中估值相对偏高，需求进入季节性淡 | | | | | 季，若铁水破 240 万吨，铁矿后期将承压下跌。策略上，前期空单建议继 | | | | | 续持有，情绪性反弹可酌情加仓。 | | | | | 煤焦：部分煤矿因完成月度生产任务而停产或减产，但炼焦煤整体高供应 | | | | | 弱需求格局难以缓解。焦煤产量高位，下游补库动力不足，523 家样本矿 | | | 煤焦 | 低位 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the SCFIS index has a small increase, the 06 contract has a large premium, spot freight rates fluctuate slightly, and the market is oscillating. Given that the European line has strong macro - attributes and the recent game is difficult, and there is no substantial progress in the Sino - US talks, the market is prone to fall and difficult to rise without more positive news. Attention should be paid to the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the relaxation of tariff policies, and the final result of the ruling [1][2]. 3. Content Summary by Aspects Freight Rate Index - On June 16, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1697.63 points, up 4.6% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 2908.68 points, up 33.1% from the previous period [1]. - On June 13, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1307.92 points, up 16.4% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 2230.99 points, down 31.55% from the previous period [1]. - On June 13, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 2088.24 points, down 152.11 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European line was 1844 USD/TEU, up 10.62% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 4120 USD/FEU, down 26.51% from the previous period [1]. - On June 13, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1243.05 points, up 7.6% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1488.87 points, up 6.6% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1094.58 points, up 5.8% from the previous period [1]. Macroeconomic Data - Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI flash was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous 49), services PMI flash was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous 50.1), and composite PMI flash was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous 50.4). The May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous - 19.5) [1]. - China's May Caixin manufacturing PMI was 48.3, down 2.1 points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [1]. - US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3 (a three - month high, expected 49.9, previous 50.2), services PMI flash was 52.3 (a two - month high, expected 51, previous 50.8), and composite PMI flash was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.6) [1]. Market Situation and Strategy - Crude oil dropped significantly last night. The European line has strong macro - attributes, and the recent game is difficult. Without more positive news, the market is prone to fall and difficult to rise. Attention should be paid to the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the relaxation of tariff policies, and the final result of the ruling [2]. - On June 16, the main contract 2508 closed at 2030.0, down 4.04%, with a trading volume of 65,900 lots and an open interest of 43,700 lots, a decrease of 1186 lots from the previous day [2]. - Short - term strategy: The 2506 contract is mainly based on the logic of basis convergence. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try short positions lightly when it rebounds above 2250, and try long positions for the 2510 contract below 1450, with stop - losses set [2]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff relaxation, the 90 - day exemption will lead to the near - strong and far - weak freight rate. Attention should be paid to the result of the court ruling, and the market is volatile. For now, it is mainly in a positive spread structure [2]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, and then judge the subsequent direction after waiting for the market to stabilize after a pullback [2]. - The daily trading limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16%, the company's margin for these contracts is adjusted to 26%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [2]. Geopolitical Situation - The Middle East situation continues to escalate. Israel and Iran have launched multiple rounds of attacks on each other. Iraq supports Iran and is committed to preventing the expansion of the conflict [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Sell on rallies [2] - Coking coal and coke: Low-level oscillation [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Low-level oscillation [2] - Glass: Weak oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - SSE 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward movement [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward movement [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: Strong oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong oscillation [6] - Pulp: Weak oscillation [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Edible oils (soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil): Rebound [6] - Meal (soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybeans No.2): Rebound [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Wait-and-see [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Viewpoints - The overall supply and demand situation in various industries is complex, with some industries facing supply surpluses and weak demand, while others are affected by factors such as geopolitical risks, policy changes, and seasonal patterns. Market trends are diverse, including downward pressure, oscillation, and rebound opportunities [2][4][6][8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Global shipments are rising, but iron water production is falling, and port inventories are decreasing. The valuation is relatively high, and prices may decline if iron water production falls below 2.4 million tons. Hold existing short positions and consider adding on rebounds [2] - Coking coal and coke: High supply and weak demand persist. Coke production costs are falling, but steel mills are proposing price cuts, and inventories are increasing. The market follows the trend of finished products [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Entering the off-season, demand is weakening, production is decreasing, and inventory decline is slowing. Total demand is expected to show a front-loaded pattern, and prices are likely to fall [2] - Glass: There is no substantial positive news. Production capacity is slightly decreasing, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory is at a high level. Long-term demand recovery is difficult [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating, with attention paid to downstream demand recovery [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indices. Some sectors had capital inflows, while others had outflows. Market sentiment is affected by policies and economic data, and long positions in stock indices are recommended [2][4] - Treasury bonds: Yields are stable, and the central bank is conducting reverse repurchase operations. The market is in a narrow rebound, and light long positions are recommended [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism is shifting, and factors such as central bank purchases, currency credit, and geopolitical risks are influencing prices. It is expected to oscillate strongly [4][6] - Silver: Similar to gold, affected by various factors and expected to oscillate strongly [6] Light Industry - Pulp: Spot prices are falling, costs are decreasing, and demand is in the off-season. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] - Logs: Port shipments are increasing, demand is relatively strong, and supply pressure is easing. Prices are expected to oscillate [6] Oil and Fat Industry - Edible oils: Palm oil production and exports are high, and inventories are increasing. Soybean oil is under pressure from high supply, but the market is boosted by biofuel policies. Prices are expected to rebound [6] - Meal: The USDA report is neutral, and the market is affected by weather, trade negotiations, and supply. Prices are expected to rebound, but the upside is limited [8] Agricultural Products Industry - Live pigs: The market is in a weak downward trend, with a loose supply-demand pattern and weak consumption. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8] - Rubber: Supply is expected to increase, demand is decreasing, and the market is in a pattern of supply exceeding demand. Prices are under pressure and expected to oscillate [9] Polyester Industry - PX: Supply is increasing, but demand may be affected by polyester load. The short-term supply-demand pattern is tight, and prices follow oil prices [9] - PTA: Supply is rising, demand is weakening, and prices follow costs [9] - MEG: Supply and demand are showing a benign structure, and prices are supported. Attention should be paid to polyester load changes [9] - PR: Cost support is strong, and the market may adjust strongly. Follow-up from downstream is to be watched [9] - PF: Affected by oil prices and downstream demand, prices are expected to oscillate strongly [9]

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 6 月 13 日星期五 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-13） | 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回升，主流矿山发运量保持平稳回升 | 态势，需求端铁水产量环比回落 | 0.19 | 万吨至 | 241.61 | 万吨，连续五周下行， | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基本面供需逐步宽松。铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，说明当前 | 240 | 的高铁水 | 铁矿石 | 逢高沽空 | 仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水持续回落状况。特朗普再次提高钢铁 | | | | 关税至 | 50%，资金和情绪端表现出偏空。产业端淡季，后续利润或逐步收 | 缩，钢厂缓慢减产，策略上，前期空单建议继续持有，情绪性反弹可酌情 | | | | | | | 加仓。 | 煤焦：部分煤矿因完成月度生产任务而停产或减产，但炼焦煤整体高供应 | | | | | | | | 弱需求格局难以缓解。焦煤产量高位，下游补库动力不足，523 | 家样本矿 | 煤焦 | 低位震荡 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The US will impose tariffs on steel household appliances on the 23rd, and liner companies have slightly lowered freight rates, which is in line with the daily report's judgment. In the absence of more positive news, the market is more likely to fall than rise. It is recommended that risk - takers consider lightly shorting at high prices [2][3] Summary According to Related Content Freight Rate Index - On June 9, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1622.81 points, up 29.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 2185.08 points, up 27.2% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1123.64 points, up 5.25% from the previous period, and the NCFI for the US West route was 3259.14 points, down 9.10% from the previous period. The NCFI (composite index) was 1669.44 points, down 0.41% from the previous period [2] - On June 6, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 2240.35 points, up 167.64 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 1667 USD/TEU, up 5.04% from the previous period, and the SCFI US West route was 5606 USD/FEU, up 8.39% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1154.98 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1397.02 points, up 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 1034.94 points, up 9.6% from the previous period [2] Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI was 49.4, the preliminary value of the service PMI was 48.9, and the composite PMI was 49.5. The May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 [2] - The May Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [2] - The preliminary value of the US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3, the service PMI was 52.3, and the composite PMI was 52.1 [2] Market Situation and Strategies - The second Sino - US meeting did not make substantial progress. The spot market price range is set, with a slight price cut to test the market. Without more positive news, the market is likely to fall. It is necessary to pay attention to the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the relaxation of tariff policies, and the final ruling result [2][3] - Short - term strategy: For the 2506 contract, focus on the logic of basis convergence. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to lightly short when it rebounds above 2250 and set a stop - loss [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff relaxation, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a situation where the near - term freight rate is stronger than the long - term. It is necessary to pay attention to the court's ruling result, and for now, focus on the positive spread structure [3] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3] Market News - On June 12, the main contract 2508 closed at 2001.5, down 2.10%, with a trading volume of 55,100 lots and an open interest of 44,600 lots, a decrease of 891 lots from the previous day [3] - The Middle East situation has escalated overnight, and there is no further information on Sino - US consultations. Some liner companies have slightly lowered the spot market freight rates at the end of June. The market is in a long - short game, and the main contract 2508 rose and then fell. The trading board shows a situation where the near - term is weaker than the long - term [3] - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 has been adjusted to 16%, the company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 has been adjusted to 26%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [3] - Maersk Group announced the launch of the TP9 route from eastern China through the Northeast region to the US West Coast. The east - bound voyage from Xiamen is scheduled to start on June 24, and the west - bound voyage from Long Beach is expected to start on July 15 [4] - Israel has made a new response to the cease - fire and personnel exchange agreement draft in Gaza. While making some flexible adjustments, it still firmly refuses to agree to a permanent end to the military operation in Gaza and requires continued control over the distribution of humanitarian aid materials in the Gaza Strip [4]