Core Viewpoint - Hengli Petrochemical's stock price has shown fluctuations in recent trading sessions, with a year-to-date increase of 13.02% but a recent decline over the past five and twenty days [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Hengli Petrochemical reported a revenue of 103.944 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.050 billion yuan, down 24.08% compared to the previous year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 26.136 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 7.602 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3]. Shareholder Information - The number of shareholders as of June 30, 2025, was 74,400, a decrease of 0.75% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 0.75% to 94,588 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 239 million shares, an increase of 23.2252 million shares from the previous period [3]. Market Activity - On September 26, Hengli Petrochemical's stock rose by 2.13%, reaching 16.75 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 82.4383 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.07% [1]. - The company's market capitalization stands at 117.905 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 715,900 yuan in principal funds on the same day [1].

Market Overview - On September 25, the refining and trading sector rose by 0.05% compared to the previous trading day, with Donghua Energy leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.3, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13445.9, up 0.67% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the refining and trading sector showed varied performance: - Donghua Energy (002221) closed at 9.10, up 5.45% with a trading volume of 480,700 shares and a turnover of 427 million yuan [1] - Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) closed at 9.42, up 1.51% with a trading volume of 255,000 shares and a turnover of 240 million yuan [1] - China Petroleum (601857) closed at 8.14, up 0.12% with a trading volume of 1,011,100 shares and a turnover of 823 million yuan [1] - China Petrochemical (600028) closed at 5.35, down 0.19% with a trading volume of 894,600 shares and a turnover of 478 million yuan [1] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector experienced a net outflow of 109 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.1 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for key stocks indicated mixed trends, with some stocks attracting significant retail interest despite overall outflows [3]

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry in China is entering a concentrated production period from 2019 to 2025, with average capacity growth exceeding 10% per year, leading to increased competition and declining operating rates/profits, yet apparent consumption of key petrochemical products is expected to grow rapidly during this phase [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The petrochemical sector is experiencing a significant expansion in capacity, particularly in refining, ethylene, PX, methanol, and refining by-products, driven by policy [1] - The export of chemical products is shifting towards quantity over price, with a notable decline in price indices across various sectors, while export volumes for plastics, rubber, and automotive products are expected to maintain growth rates above 10% from 2023 to 2025 [3] - Domestic self-sufficiency rates for key petrochemical products have significantly improved, with ethylene and PX self-sufficiency rates increasing by 19% and 18%, respectively, which corresponds to the absorption of 949,000 and 855,000 tons of capacity [4] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - The development of new industries and emerging consumer markets in China is driving demand for chemical products, particularly in the new energy vehicle and wind power sectors, leading to increased demand for EVA, POE, epoxy resins, and PVDF [5] - The overall domestic demand remains moderate, but structural highlights are evident, with traditional plastics benefiting from the rise of e-commerce and delivery services [5] - The integration, scaling, and intensification of domestic industrial chains are establishing comparative advantages, while the economic growth in ASEAN and Africa is expected to create rapid growth opportunities for chemical demand [5] Group 3: Export Opportunities - The expansion of production capacity is leading to a significant increase in exports, particularly to emerging markets in ASEAN and Africa, as well as a decline in competitiveness from Europe and Japan, which is resulting in a trend reversal for Chinese chemical exports [4] - The CAGR for exports of styrene, PP, PTA, EVA, PA6, and PVC is projected to exceed 40% from 2020 to 2024, with other monitored products also showing growth rates between 9% and 40% [4]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - On September 24, a total of 93 stocks appeared on the block trading platform, with a cumulative trading volume of 239 million shares and a total trading value of 3.612 billion yuan, indicating active trading in the market [1]. Group 1: Trading Activity - The highest trading value was recorded for Zijin Mining, with two transactions totaling 363 million yuan [1]. - Following Zijin Mining, Oulutong had 59 transactions with a total trading value of 334 million yuan [1]. - A total of 49 stocks had trading values exceeding 10 million yuan, reflecting significant investor interest [1]. Group 2: Notable Stocks - Zijin Mining (stock code: 601899) had a closing price of 25.93 yuan, with a slight increase of 0.43% [1]. - Oulutong (stock code: 300870) closed at 220.58 yuan, showing a rise of 1.89%, but had a trading price of 182.00 yuan, reflecting a discount of 17.49% [1]. - Liyade (stock code: 300296) experienced a 3.54% increase, closing at 7.32 yuan, with a trading price of 7.07 yuan, indicating a discount of 3.42% [1].

恒力石化9月24日大宗交易平台出现一笔成交，成交量1232.00万股，成交金额2.01亿元，大宗交易成交 价为16.29元。该笔交易的买方营业部为西南证券股份有限公司北京昌平证券营业部，卖方营业部为华 泰证券股份有限公司上海分公司。 进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生16笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为15.13亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，恒力石化今日收盘价为16.29元，下跌0.55%，日换手率为0.29%，成交额为 3.28亿元，全天主力资金净流入1350.23万元，近5日该股累计下跌3.08%，近5日资金合计净流入2334.20 万元。 | 成交量 | 成交金额 | 成交价格 | 相对当日收盘折 | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | （万股） | （万元） | （元） | 溢价（%） | | | | 1232.00 | 20069.28 | 16.29 | 0.00 | 西南证券股份有限公司北 | 华泰证券股份有限公 | | | | | | 京昌平证券营业部 | 司上海分公司 | 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The petrochemical industry in China is entering a concentrated production period from 2019 to 2025, with average capacity growth for various petrochemical products exceeding 10% per year, leading to intensified competition and declining operating rates/profitability, yet major petrochemical products are still experiencing rapid apparent consumption growth during this phase [1][11][13] - The export value growth remains stable, but the physical volume has significantly increased, with various sub-sectors showing a price-volume trade-off, indicating a price decline of 2% to 7% annually from 2023 to 2025 [2][15][16] - Domestic demand is recovering moderately, with structural highlights in emerging industries and consumption markets, particularly driven by the rapid development of new energy vehicles and wind power generation, which significantly boosts the demand for various chemical new materials [4][26] Summary by Sections 1. Chemical Capacity Expansion and Consumption - From 2019 to 2025E, the average capacity growth for multiple petrochemical products is projected to exceed 10% per year, with specific products like ethylene, PP, and PX seeing even higher growth rates [11][12] - Despite the rapid capacity expansion leading to increased competition and declining profitability, the apparent consumption of major petrochemical products is still growing at a high rate, with annualized growth rates for ethylene, propylene, and butadiene reaching 10.4%, 8.8%, and 7.9% respectively from 2020 to 2024 [13][19] 2. Export Dynamics - The export of chemical products is experiencing a significant expansion, with the CAGR for chemical industrial products reaching 8.9% from 2020 to 2024, and specific petrochemical products like styrene, PP, and PTA seeing export volume growth rates above 40% [22][26] - The shift in export focus towards emerging markets, with ASEAN and Africa showing notable growth in demand for chemical products, is contributing to this trend [25][26] 3. Domestic Demand and Structural Highlights - The development of new energy vehicles and renewable energy sectors is driving substantial demand for new chemical materials, while traditional plastics are also benefiting from the rise of e-commerce and delivery services [4][26] - The overall domestic consumption is recovering, and the factors driving the growth of chemical product demand and exports are expected to remain strong in the medium to long term [4][26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the continuous rise of A-shares, particularly in the petrochemical sector, with the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index increasing by approximately 0.8% [1] - Key stocks in the petrochemical sector include Tongcheng New Materials, which hit the daily limit, and Blue Sky Technology, which rose over 5%, along with other notable performers such as Sanmei Co., Haohua Technology, and Yaqi International [1] - CITIC Construction Investment Securities anticipates an improvement in the chemical upstream sector driven by policy support, particularly for leading companies in midstream industries closely tied to domestic demand, including polyurethane, coal chemical, petroleum chemical, and fluorochemical sectors [1] Group 2 - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its connected funds (017855/017856) closely track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.65% and the petroleum and petrochemical industry for 32.3% of the index [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, Sinopec, Salt Lake Industry, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Juhua Co., Cangge Mining, Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy, and Hengli Petrochemical, collectively accounting for 55.63% of the index [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the polyester sector, recommending high-quality companies such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, while also suggesting attention to major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [3][33][49]. Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in oil prices in Q2 2025, with Brent crude averaging $66.7 per barrel, down 11.0% quarter-on-quarter and 21.5% year-on-year, impacting upstream oil and gas exploration and production [3][5][18]. - The downstream refining and chemical sector experienced a revenue drop of 10.4% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with net profits down 26.1% [33][35]. - The report notes a tightening supply-demand balance in the polyester sector, with expectations for improved profitability in the upcoming months as the industry enters a seasonal peak [3][51]. Summary by Sections Upstream Oil and Gas Sector - In Q2 2025, the oil and gas exploration and production sector reported revenues of 1,526.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.2% year-on-year, and net profits of 87.58 billion yuan, down 21.8% [17][19]. - The average gross margin for the sector was 20.1%, reflecting a decline due to falling oil prices [17][19]. Downstream Refining and Chemical Sector - The refining and chemical sector achieved revenues of 1,608.3 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%, with net profits also down 26.1% [33][35]. - The average gross margin for this sector was 16.9%, impacted by inventory losses due to declining oil prices and weak downstream demand [33][35]. Price Trends and Margins - The report indicates that the price spread for major petrochemical products showed mixed results, with some margins improving while others contracted [12][34]. - The PTA-PX price spread was reported at 219 yuan per ton, down 21% quarter-on-quarter, indicating pressure on the PTA segment [12][34]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, due to expected improvements in demand and profitability [3][51]. - It also recommends monitoring major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which may benefit from cost improvements and competitive advantages [3][49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry [2] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, crude oil prices experienced a decline, leading to a decrease in upstream oil and gas extraction and midstream refining profitability, while downstream polyester profitability showed signs of recovery [4][5] - The overall revenue for the oil and gas extraction and oilfield services sector in Q2 2025 was 1,526.15 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.1% [19][21] - The report highlights a tightening supply-demand situation in the downstream polyester sector, with expectations for improved market conditions [4] Summary by Sections Oil and Gas Prices - Brent crude oil average prices for April, May, and June 2025 were 66.5, 64.0, and 69.8 USD/barrel, respectively, with a Q2 average of 66.7 USD/barrel, reflecting an 11.0% decrease quarter-on-quarter and an 8.3% decrease year-on-year [4][20] - The report notes that gasoline and diesel prices were adjusted three times upwards and two times downwards, with total reductions of 155 CNY/ton and 150 CNY/ton, respectively [20] Upstream Oil and Gas Sector - The oil and gas extraction and oilfield services sector reported a total revenue of 1,526.15 billion in Q2 2025, with a net profit of 87.58 billion, marking a year-on-year decline of 21.8% [19][21] - The gross margin for the sector was 20.1%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year and 0.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to falling crude oil prices [19][21] Downstream Refining and Chemical Sector - The refining and chemical industry achieved a total revenue of 1,608.3 billion in Q2 2025, with a net profit of 52 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 26.1% [35][37] - The gross margin for the refining sector was 16.9%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year and 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, attributed to inventory losses from falling oil prices and weak downstream demand [35][37] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [4] - It also suggests that the overall oil price is expected to maintain a mid-to-high level with a "U" shaped trend, recommending companies with high dividend yields like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report is the second in the series of in - depth studies on chemical plants. It analyzes the upstream - downstream matching of the polyester industry chain and the marginal plants of futures varieties such as PX, PTA, PR, and PF. PTA enterprises with PX or polyester matching account for 91.6% of the production capacity, PX with downstream matching accounts for 82.0% of the production capacity, and polyester with upstream matching accounts for 72.1% of the production capacity. The marginal plants are identified from aspects like old plants, small single - line production capacity or enterprise scale, high production process costs, and long distances for raw material procurement or product sales [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Polyester Industry Chain Upstream - Downstream Matching Analysis 3.1.1 Group - Based Upstream - Downstream Matching As of the end of July 2025, China's PX, PTA, and polyester production capacities were 4367, 9171.5, and 8894 tons respectively. The theoretical annual PX gap was 1640 tons, and the theoretical annual PTA surplus was 1567 tons. PTA enterprises with PX or polyester matching accounted for 91.6% of the production capacity, PX with downstream matching accounted for 82.0% of the production capacity, and polyester with upstream matching accounted for 72.1% of the production capacity. The enterprises in the polyester industry chain can be classified into four types: those with complete PX/PTA/polyester matching; those mainly with polyester and PTA matching but little PX matching; those with only PX and PTA matching; and those with relatively single matching [10][11]. 3.1.2 Region - Based Upstream - Downstream Matching The production capacity of the polyester industry chain is concentrated in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Guangdong, Fujian, etc. Except for Shandong having a large surplus of PX for sale, most other regions have PX production capacity gaps or are basically balanced. Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Liaoning have the largest PX gaps. In terms of PTA, Jiangsu and Zhejiang have large PTA production capacity gaps, while Liaoning, Guangdong, and other regions have PTA surpluses [12][15][16]. 3.2 PX Marginal Plant Analysis As of the end of July 2025, China's total PX production capacity was 4367 tons, with an effective operating capacity of 4254 tons. PX production capacity is mainly distributed in Zhejiang, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Shandong, etc. The marginal PX plants are identified from aspects such as production time, single - set scale, and production process. Old plants (over 20 years in production), small - scale plants (less than 100 tons), and medium - short - process plants (accounting for 17.4% of the total production capacity) are more likely to be marginal plants [20][23][30]. 3.3 PTA Marginal Plant Analysis As of the end of July 2025, the total PTA production capacity was 9171.5 tons, with 836.5 tons having been shut down for more than half a year. PTA production capacity is mainly distributed in coastal areas such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Guangdong, and Fujian. The marginal PTA plants are mainly those with a production capacity of less than 200 tons and put into production before 2020, with a total capacity of 1295 tons, accounting for 14.1% [34][40][41]. 3.4 PR Marginal Plant Analysis As of the end of July 2025, the total PR production capacity was 2168 tons, mainly distributed in Jiangsu, Hainan, and Liaoning. The top four bottle - chip manufacturers account for 78% of the total production capacity. The marginal bottle - chip plants are those that meet one or more of the following conditions: long production time, small plant scale, lack of upstream - downstream matching ability of the group, and high freight costs due to long distances for raw material procurement or product sales. A total of 326 tons of production capacity may be marginal plants, accounting for 15% [44][51][54]. 3.5 PF Marginal Plant Analysis As of the end of July 2025, the total PF production capacity was 968.5 tons, mainly distributed in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Fujian. The top four short - fiber manufacturers account for 46% of the total production capacity. Plants with a production time of over 20 years are mainly concentrated in Jiangsu and Fujian. Small - scale plants (less than 20 tons) are more likely to be marginal plants. The difference in processing costs between new and old plants is not significant, and the survival of old plants depends more on market dynamic balance [55][57][62].