2月9日，A股迎来普涨行情，双创指数涨近3%，4612只个股收红，光通信模块、影视概念等板块涨幅靠前。 受访人士表示，内外因素共振推动A股反弹，但市场量能未明显放大，叠加融资余额持续回落，反弹持续性存疑。预计节前最后一周市场大概率延续震荡 上行态势，本周可逢低加大仓位。 科技、资源股大涨 指数高开高走，沪指收涨1.41%报4123.09点，创业板指收涨2.98%报3332.77点，深证成指收涨2.17%。沪深300、上证50、北证50涨幅均超过1%，科创50 收涨2.51%。 市场放量1067亿元，三市日成交额增至2.27万亿元。杠杆资金热度持续回落，截至2月6日，沪深京两融余额降至2.66万亿元。 盘面上，CPO概念、影视概念、AI语料、Chiplet概念、光电子器件均大涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | . 涨幅% ↑ | 最新 | 总市值 | 成交额 | 年初至今涨幅% | 周涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 801890 | 机械设备(中) | 2.54 | 2353.57 | 62378 Z | 1719亿 | 9 43 | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [8] Core Insights - The liquor sector is currently experiencing a phase of "supply optimization and weak demand recovery," with inventory reduction ongoing during the Spring Festival cycle. Moutai's performance in terms of volume and price has shown continuous improvement before the festival, and the trend of exchanging price for volume is expected to accelerate inventory reduction [2][7] - The demand for consumer goods is expected to gradually recover, with the Spring Festival stocking period potentially leading to a strong start to the year. Recommended companies include Ganhe Weiye, Guizhou Moutai, Guoquan, Mengniu Dairy, Angel Yeast, Wuliangye, Wancheng Group, Anjixin Food, Qiaqia Food, Babi Food, Ruoyu Chen, Dongpeng Beverage, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kuaijishan [2][7] Summary by Sections Dairy Products Supply and Demand Trends - The deep processing and low-temperature liquid milk sectors are driving structural prosperity in the dairy industry. The price of raw milk has stabilized, indicating an approaching supply-demand inflection point. The total sales scale of various dairy products in China for 2024 is estimated to be approximately 653.5 billion yuan, with liquid milk at 355 billion yuan, milk powder at 176.6 billion yuan, and other dairy products at 121.9 billion yuan. While liquid milk and milk powder are expected to decline year-on-year, other dairy products (such as cheese and cream) are projected to continue growing, with growth in other dairy products expected to outpace that of liquid milk and milk powder over the next five years [4][18] - The per capita consumption of dairy products in China for 2024 is estimated to be about 40.5 kg per person per year, indicating significant room for improvement compared to the world average and other developed economies [20] - The consumption scale of chilled and ambient liquid milk in 2024 is projected to be 265.3 billion yuan and 89.7 billion yuan, respectively. The penetration rate of chilled milk is expected to rise to over 30% by 2029, up from 25% in 2024 [22] Market Review - Since the beginning of 2026, the Food and Beverage (Yangtze River) Index has risen by 4.88%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which has increased by 0.29%. This performance is primarily driven by the liquor, seasoning, and soft drink sectors due to the stocking effect of the Spring Festival [6][35] - The white liquor sector continues to show improvement in sales dynamics, with high-end liquor performing the best. The overall market is expected to benefit from the ongoing inventory reduction and the gradual recovery of demand [7][35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Insights - The report highlights that the online demand for Moutai has shown strong explosive growth, supporting the price stability of Moutai. Additionally, some inventory replenishment demand has amplified the price fluctuations of Moutai. On the supply side, changes in the delivery rhythm have also caused certain disturbances to Moutai's wholesale prices [2][7] Summary by Sections Moutai Price Fluctuations - Since the beginning of 2026, Moutai's wholesale prices have experienced volatility. The price of original Moutai bottles dropped to around 1505 CNY per bottle at the start of 2026 but subsequently broke through the 1600 CNY and 1700 CNY thresholds by the end of January. As of February 5, 2026, the price rose to 1660 CNY per bottle [6][17] - For bulk Moutai, the price initially fell to 1490 CNY per bottle, then rose to 1650 CNY by the end of January, before dropping to 1570 CNY in early February, and finally rebounding to 1610 CNY by February 5 [6][17] Demand and Supply Analysis - Demand: The "i Moutai" app had over 15.31 million active users in January 2026, with more than 1.45 million users purchasing desired products, resulting in over 2.12 million transactions. The explosive online demand has supported Moutai's strong price performance. Additionally, some channel replenishment and purchasing demand have further increased price volatility [7][18] - Supply: During the Spring Festival peak season, demand is favorable, but the overall supply of Moutai is tight, with limited channel inventory. Some regions have applied for additional quotas, and certain distributors have begun selling March quotas for Moutai [7][18] Short-term and Long-term Price Outlook - In the short term, Moutai is expected to achieve a narrow bottom fluctuation as supply is gradually controlled, and demand is recovering. The acceleration of pre-holiday supply will help control prices post-holiday. In the long term, Moutai's price fluctuations will be determined by economic growth and supply growth factors [8][21] - The report emphasizes that Moutai's price fluctuations are fundamentally driven by supply and demand relationships. Demand is closely related to residents' income and consumer confidence, while supply is influenced by Moutai's pricing strategy. Since 2009, the number of Moutai bottles that urban residents can purchase monthly has fluctuated around a historical average of 2 bottles [8][22]

天风证券在其研报中指出，本轮白酒板块已经调整约5年，行业目前的估值和机构仓位已经处于历史低 位。在目前股市背景下，股价有可能领先于基本面见底。天风证券认为，目前板块或处于基本面出清的 最后阶段，茅台批价企稳是边际改善的积极信号，板块估值修复或领先于业绩修复。 北京商报讯（记者 刘一博 冯若男）2月9日尾盘，沪指4123.09点上涨1.41%。白酒板块2306.55点收盘上 涨0.95% ，其中14只白酒股上涨，贵州茅台1524.96元/股收盘。 从个股来看，贵州茅台收盘价达1524.96元/股，上涨0.66%；五粮液收盘价达107.36元/股，上涨0.34%； 山西汾酒收盘价174.70元/股，下跌0.23%；泸州老窖收盘价达121.29元/股，下跌1.25%；洋河股份收盘 价达55.66元/股，上涨0.76%。 ...

沪深股通今日合计成交2730.05亿，其中贵州茅台和中际旭创分居沪股通和深股通个股成交额首位。板块主力资金方面，电子板块主力资金净流入居首。 ETF成交方面，多只有色金属相关ETF份额大幅减少，其中有色金属ETF（512400）上周份额大减25.11亿份。龙虎榜方面，AI应用概念股捷成股份今日20cm 涨停，获三家一线游资（国泰海通证券三亚迎宾路、国泰海通证券上海江苏路、国盛证券宁波桑田路）合计买入3.41亿。 一、沪深股通前十大成交 今日沪股通总成交金额为1257.68亿，深股通总成交金额为1472.37亿。 | | 沪股運（ | 2月9日 | ) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 成交金额(亿元) | | 1 | 600519 | 贵州茅台 | | 21.12 | | 2 | 603986 | 兆易创新 | | 18.64 | | 3 | 601899 | 高等业,不 | | 17.62 | | ব | 688256 | 寒武纪 | | 16.76 | | 5 | 601318 | 中国平安 | | 14.75 | | 6 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [4][19]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is entering a phase of rapid performance clearing, with demand expected to show weak recovery as policy pressures ease. The industry is currently at a low valuation, and pessimistic expectations are fully priced in. The direction of industry clearing is becoming clearer, and the bottom is increasingly defined. The control of volume and stable pricing is driving the recovery of wholesale prices, with recent acceleration in the price of mainstream products showing positive signals. Leading liquor companies are increasing dividend ratios, enhancing yield attractiveness. Long-term, it is recommended to focus on high-quality leading companies with strong performance certainty, particularly Guizhou Moutai, which has stable pricing and a solid competitive moat [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage industry increased by 4.31% in the week of February 2-6, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which decreased by 1.27%. Among 31 sub-industries, food and beverage ranked first [4][5]. - The sub-sectors within food and beverage, ranked by performance, are as follows: liquor (+5.29%), soft drinks (+4.71%), beer (+4.48%), seasoning and fermented products (+3.81%), dairy (+2.62%), snacks (+1.86%), pre-processed foods (+1.58%), meat products (+1.28%), baked goods (+0.61%), other alcoholic beverages (-0.44%), and health products (-1.36%) [4]. Guizhou Moutai Insights - Online sales data for i Moutai is impressive, with offline sales exceeding expectations, driving up wholesale prices. As of February 2, i Moutai reported over 15.31 million monthly active users, with 6.28 million new users and over 2.12 million orders, of which over 1.43 million were for mainstream products, accounting for about 67% [4]. - The establishment of direct sales channels for i Moutai has effectively shortened the distribution chain, reaching previously underserved C-end consumers, particularly in self-consumption and family consumption. This has systematically released suppressed C-end demand [4]. - The recent performance indicates that Moutai's market-oriented transformation strategy is receiving positive feedback from the market, with the direct sales channel and distribution system achieving initial collaborative success in customer segmentation and service functions [4].

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption ETF (159268) rose by 1.4%, reaching a new high, with net inflows of nearly 50 million yuan over the past five days [1] - The A-share leading consumption ETF (159928) experienced a flat trading day with a total transaction volume exceeding 570 million yuan [3] - Popular constituent stocks such as China Duty Free and Pop Mart saw significant gains, with increases of over 8% and 5% respectively [1][3] Group 2: Consumer Trends and Policies - As the Spring Festival approaches, the A-share consumer sector is becoming more active, with expectations for increased retail in gold, travel, and dining services [5] - A new policy for Hainan Free Trade Port allows residents to purchase imported goods tax-free, enhancing consumer sentiment [5] - The "2026 'Happy Shopping Spring' Special Activity Plan" aims to stimulate consumption across various sectors, including digital and green consumption [5] Group 3: Alcohol and Beverage Industry Insights - The price of Moutai has rebounded, with a recent increase from 1570 yuan to 1610 yuan, reflecting a 2.5% rise [6] - The white liquor sector is showing signs of weak recovery, with expectations for a gradual improvement in demand due to better economic forecasts [6][9] - The beer market is projected to face pressure in 2025, but a mild recovery is anticipated in 2026 due to the growth of non-traditional retail channels [6] Group 4: Food and Beverage Sector Developments - The National Standard for Pre-prepared Dishes is under review, which is expected to enhance the development of the pre-prepared food industry [7][10] - The dairy sector is expected to stabilize, with a potential rebound in milk prices as supply and demand reach a turning point [7] - The snack food segment is experiencing growth, driven by the expansion of discount snack stores and innovations in social e-commerce channels [6][7] Group 5: Livestock and Meat Products - The profitability of self-bred pigs has turned negative, with a 26.4% decline in profits from purchased piglets [8] - Prices for white feather chickens and egg-laying hens have shown slight week-on-week declines [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has shown a cumulative increase of 4.48% this week, with A-shares rising by 4.44%, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 5.77 percentage points [1]. - The report highlights the ongoing differentiation in the fundamentals of various categories, with liquor outperforming food and beverages [2]. - Key investment recommendations include leading companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao in the liquor segment, as well as Yili in dairy and Nongfu Spring in beverages [2][3]. Summary by Sections Liquor - The report notes a gradual increase in sales leading up to the Spring Festival, with Kweichow Moutai performing particularly well. It suggests that the overall decline in sales is expected to narrow to around 10% during the festive period [10]. - Investment recommendations include Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, with a focus on their growth potential and market recovery [10][11]. Beer - The beer industry is experiencing healthy inventory levels, with expectations for demand recovery. The report recommends Yanjing Beer and China Resources Beer as key players to watch [11]. Snacks - The report emphasizes the importance of strong alpha stocks in the snack category, particularly focusing on the growth potential of konjac snacks. Leading companies like Wei Long and Yan Jin Pu Zi are highlighted for their innovative product offerings [12][18]. Dairy - The dairy sector is seeing orderly preparations for the Spring Festival, with a recommendation for Yili as a leading company with a favorable valuation margin. The report anticipates a gradual recovery in demand and a potential balance in supply and demand by mid-2026 [14]. Beverages - The beverage segment is primarily focused on inventory reduction during the off-season, with stable preparations for the Spring Festival. The report continues to recommend Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage for their growth strategies [15]. Supply Chain - The report discusses the public consultation on national standards for prepared dishes, which may accelerate the clearing of inefficient suppliers in the industry. Recommendations include leading companies like Yihai International and Haidilao [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][18] Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to perform well in 2026, driven by several key themes including cost benefits, efficiency improvements, innovation, and potential recovery opportunities in the liquor segment [3][10][11] - The report highlights the ongoing differentiation in the fundamentals of various categories, with liquor outperforming food and beverages [2][10] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor - The report indicates that the sales of liquor, particularly high-end brands like Moutai, are showing positive trends as the Spring Festival approaches, with Moutai expected to see double-digit growth [2][10] - Investment recommendations include Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, with a focus on brands that are gaining market share despite overall market challenges [2][10][11] Beer - The beer industry is currently managing inventory well and is poised for recovery as demand is expected to improve [11] - Recommended companies include Yanjing Beer and China Resources Beer, which are seen as strong players in the market [11] Snacks - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the snack sector, particularly those involved in konjac products, which are expected to continue their growth trajectory [12][18] - Key players in this segment include Weidong and Yanjinpuzi, which are noted for their innovative product offerings [12][18] Prepared Dishes - The report discusses the public consultation on national standards for prepared dishes, which may lead to a clearer industry structure and the elimination of less compliant players [13][14] - Recommended companies in this space include Yihai International and Haidilao, which are expected to benefit from improved compliance and operational efficiency [13][14] Dairy Products - The dairy sector is experiencing a steady recovery, with a focus on leading companies like Yili, which are expected to benefit from improved margins and reduced inventory pressures [14][15] - The report suggests that the demand for dairy products will continue to improve, particularly in the second half of 2026 [14][15] Beverages - The beverage sector is currently in a seasonal inventory reduction phase, with stable preparations for the Spring Festival [15] - Companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage are highlighted for their strong operational performance and market expansion strategies [15][16]

2026.02. 09 多位受访酒商告诉记者，一方面今年本身春节时间较晚，春节旺季启动也有所推迟；另一方面，今年 企业团购、家庭消费者等购买行为也更加理性。预计2月10日到除夕前生意仍有一波小高峰，但整体 来看，要超过去年春节同期有难度。 部分机构研报也显示，调研发现2026年1月以来白酒春节备货及动销逐步启动，多数渠道反馈1月至 今总体出货量还是有双位数下滑，区域市场和品牌分化也在加剧，头部品牌收益更多，茅台飞天各地 反馈普遍缺货，五粮液不少区域反馈动销持平。 2025年对于白酒行业无疑是近年来最为困难的一年，从第三季度开始 ，白酒上市公司业绩出现了较 大幅度的滑坡，因此2026年春节白酒企业也加大了促销和渠道支持力度。 本文字数：1077，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 栾立 封图 | 第一财经 任玉明 摄 春节前是白酒的传统旺季，记者从多地酒商处了解到，今年的春节旺季比往年来迟近1个月，酒企今 年也加大了年末的促销力度，通过红包、抽奖希望帮助经销商消化库存。 "今年进了2月才开始有旺季的感觉。"山东淄博酒商李辰告诉记者，往年一般元旦前后酒水销售就有 上升的趋势，但今年元旦后市场一直不温不火，直 ...