Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 42.21 CNY based on a 21x P/E ratio for 2024 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company has established a strong position in the dairy industry through diversified product offerings and a focus on operational excellence. The dual-leader market structure in liquid milk has stabilized, enhancing revenue growth potential [1][12]. - The company aims for a net profit margin of at least 9% by 2025, reflecting its commitment to profitability amidst a challenging consumption environment [1][18]. - The report highlights the company's high dividend yield of 4.2% and a commitment to a payout ratio of at least 70% in 2024, indicating its attractiveness as a low-valuation, high-dividend stock [1][2]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Company Overview and Competitive Advantage - The company has transitioned from a broad management model to a more refined approach, enhancing its profitability focus. It has diversified its product range beyond liquid milk to include ice cream, milk powder, and cheese, solidifying its market leadership [1][12]. - The management's commitment to long-term growth is reflected in the high shareholding of executives and the implementation of multiple stock incentive plans [1][24]. Section 2: Revenue Growth and Market Dynamics - The company anticipates a recovery in revenue growth due to low inventory levels and supportive policies. The liquid milk segment remains essential, with fresh milk growth outpacing traditional white milk [1][12]. - The company has seen improvements in sales performance, particularly in milk powder and ice cream, with significant growth in overseas markets [1][12]. Section 3: Profitability and Market Conditions - The report suggests that the company will benefit from upstream capacity reductions, leading to a potential balance in raw milk supply and demand by 2025. This could enhance the company's operating profit margins as milk prices recover [1][12]. - The company's current P/E ratio of 15x is considered low compared to historical and peer benchmarks, providing a safety margin for investors [1][2]. Section 4: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of 2.01 CNY, 1.79 CNY, and 1.88 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The revenue forecast indicates a slight decline in 2024, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yili Group (600887) [1][2] Core Views - Yili Group's 2024 Q3 revenue was 290.37 billion yuan, down 6.66% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.337 billion yuan, up 8.53% YoY [1][4] - The company's profit performance is strong despite weak dairy demand, benefiting from completed channel adjustments, cost advantages, and expense control [1][6] - With stabilizing raw milk prices and demand, Yili is expected to continue improving its operations [1][6] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - 2024 Q1-Q3 revenue: 887.33 billion yuan, down 8.61% YoY [1][4] - 2024 Q1-Q3 net profit: 10.868 billion yuan, up 15.87% YoY [1][4] - 2024 Q3 liquid milk revenue: 206.37 billion yuan, down 10.31% YoY but up 24.12% QoQ [4] - 2024 Q3 milk powder revenue: 68.21 billion yuan, up 6.56% YoY [4] - 2024 Q3 ice cream revenue: 10.21 billion yuan, down 16.65% YoY [4] Profitability - 2024 Q3 gross margin: 34.85%, up 2.48 pct YoY [6] - 2024 Q3 net margin: 11.45%, up 1.63 pct YoY [6] - 2024 Q3 sales expense ratio: 19.02%, up 1.09 pct YoY [6] - Gross margin-sales expense ratio difference: up 1.39 pct [6] Industry and Market Position - Yili Group is a leading dairy products company in China [1][6] - The dairy industry is facing weak demand, but Yili's channel adjustments have improved product distribution [1][4] - The company benefits from cost advantages and has strong control over expenses [1][6] Future Projections - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: 1.18855 trillion yuan, 1.21403 trillion yuan, 1.26437 trillion yuan [7] - 2024-2026 net profit forecast: 12.079 billion yuan, 11.281 billion yuan, 12.234 billion yuan [7] - 3-year CAGR for net profit: 5.47% [7] Valuation Metrics - Current price: 30.20 yuan [2] - 2024E P/E: 15.9x [7] - 2024E P/B: 3.4x [7] - 2024E EV/EBITDA: 10.2x [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Yili Industrial Group Co Ltd (600887 CH) with a target price of RMB 33.30, representing a potential upside of 15.2% from the current price of RMB 28.90 [1][2] Core Views - Yili's Q3 2024 gross margin improved to 35.0%, up 2.5 percentage points YoY and 1.2 percentage points QoQ, driven by lower raw milk prices and product mix optimization [1] - Net profit in Q3 2024 increased by 8.5% YoY to RMB 3.34 billion, with a net profit margin of 11.5%, up 1.6 percentage points YoY [1] - The liquid milk business saw double-digit declines in Q3 2024, but the decline in ambient milk improved sequentially, outperforming ambient yogurt and ambient milk beverages [1] - Yili's market share in ambient milk increased by nearly 1 percentage point in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The low-temperature milk business maintained growth, with low-temperature milk achieving double-digit growth and market share expansion [1] - The infant formula business achieved high single-digit growth in the first three quarters of 2024, with market share increasing by 2 percentage points to 13.2% [1] - Raw milk supply is expected to slow down, narrowing the supply-demand gap, with policy incentives and improved consumer sentiment likely to drive a slight recovery in dairy product demand [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 29.1 billion, down 6.7% YoY but with a narrower decline compared to Q2 2024 (down 16.5% YoY) [1] - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 119.3 billion, down 5.5% YoY, with a recovery expected in 2025E to RMB 127.4 billion, up 6.8% YoY [3] - Net profit for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 12.2 billion, up 17.7% YoY, with EPS of RMB 1.92 [3] - Gross margin for 2024E is expected to be 34.1%, up from 32.8% in 2023, with further improvement to 34.5% in 2025E [6] - ROE for 2024E is projected at 21.4%, up from 20.1% in 2023 [6] Industry and Competitive Position - The optimization of upstream supply is expected to benefit leading companies like Yili, with raw material price advantages potentially squeezing out smaller competitors [1] - Long-term demand drivers include per capita milk consumption, penetration rates, and the implementation of student milk policies [1] - Yili's competitive position is strengthened by its market share gains in ambient milk and infant formula, as well as its focus on premium products like the Jin Dian Organic series [1] Valuation - The target price of RMB 33.30 is based on 18x 2025E P/E, a 0.5 standard deviation below the 3-year historical average P/E [1] - The current P/E for 2024E is 15.1x, with a P/B ratio of 3.03x [3] - Dividend yield for 2024E is projected at 4.7%, up from 4.1% in 2023 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Yili Group (600887.SH) [1][2] Core Views - Yili Group's revenue showed a quarter-on-quarter improvement, with profits exceeding expectations. The company reported a revenue of 887.33 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 16% to 108.68 billion yuan [1][2] - The report highlights that the pressure on revenue during the adjustment period has eased, and the mismatch between raw milk supply and demand has decreased [1] - The company has completed inventory adjustments for liquid milk and is continuously developing non-dairy businesses, with Q3 liquid milk revenue at 206.37 billion yuan, down 10% year-on-year, but with improved channel adjustments and product freshness [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, Yili Group's revenue was 290.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 33.37 billion yuan, an increase of 9% [1] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 increased by 2 percentage points to 34.85%, benefiting from lower raw milk costs [1] - The company expects overall performance to show quarter-on-quarter improvement in Q4 2024, with a projected net profit margin increase of 2 percentage points to 11.45% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Q3 2024 revenue from milk powder and dairy products was 68.21 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, driven by an increase in terminal selection rates and product upgrades [1] - Revenue from cold drinks and other products was 10.21 billion yuan and 1.85 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 17% and 23% [1] Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 1.87, 1.83, and 1.89 yuan, respectively, maintaining a PE ratio of 16 for 2024 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - Q3 revenue showed improvement compared to previous quarters, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 6.7% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company grew by 15.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters, reaching 108.7 billion yuan [1] - The company's profitability improved in Q3, with a net profit margin of 12.3%, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company has initiated a share buyback program, repurchasing 7.6 billion yuan worth of shares as of October 2024, demonstrating confidence in future development [3] Financial Performance - Total operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 890 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6% [1] - Q3 operating revenue was 291 billion yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year [1] - Gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 34.8%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Sales expense ratio increased by 1.6 percentage points to 19.3% in the first three quarters [3] Product and Regional Breakdown - Liquid milk revenue was 575 billion yuan in the first three quarters, down 12.1% year-on-year, but showed improvement quarter by quarter [2] - Milk powder and dairy products revenue grew by 7.1% year-on-year to 213 billion yuan, with infant formula achieving high single-digit growth [2] - Ice cream products revenue decreased by 19.6% to 83 billion yuan, but channel inventory remained healthy [2] - Revenue from North China region was 247 billion yuan, down 6.3% year-on-year, showing relatively better performance compared to other regions [2] Future Projections - The report forecasts net profit attributable to the parent company of 121 billion yuan for 2024, 114 billion yuan for 2025, and 121 billion yuan for 2026 [4] - EPS is projected to be 1.90 yuan in 2024, 1.79 yuan in 2025, and 1.91 yuan in 2026 [4] - The company's PE ratio is expected to be 15x in 2024, 16x in 2025, and 15x in 2026 [4] Industry Context - The report highlights the adjustment of upstream production capacity and the expectation of a new balance in raw milk prices [4] - The company's market share in room-temperature white milk continues to increase, while low-temperature liquid milk shows growth against the trend [2]

证券代码：600887 证券简称：伊利股份 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：20241031 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|--------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------| | | £ | 特定对象调研 £分析师会议 | | 投资者关系 | £ 媒体采访 | R 业绩说明会 | | 活动类别 | £ 新闻发布会 | £ 路演活动 | | | £现场参观 £其他 | | | 参与单位名称 | 参与伊利股份 2024 | 年第三季度业绩说明会的广大投资者 | | 及人员姓名 | | | | 时 间 | 2024 年 10 月 31 | 日上午 9:00-10:30 | | 地 点 | 电话会议及网络音频直播 | | | 公司接待 | | 公司董事会秘书邱向敏先生、独立董事纪韶女士、投资者关系 | | 人员姓名 | 部总经理赵琳女士等 | | | 投资者关系 | | 一、公司投资者关系部总经理赵琳女士对伊利股份 2024 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 35.87 CNY, representing a potential upside of 26.7% from the current stock price of 28.30 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in its quarterly performance, with a notable increase in net profit exceeding expectations [2]. - The revenue pressure has eased following the completion of channel adjustments, leading to a more favorable outlook for future performance [3]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 120.1 billion CNY in 2024, 114.2 billion CNY in 2025, and 124.8 billion CNY in 2026 [5]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2022, the company reported revenues of 123.17 billion CNY, with a projected decline to 119.46 billion CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 124.75 billion CNY in 2025 and 129.94 billion CNY in 2026 [1][7]. - Net profit for 2022 was 9.43 billion CNY, with projections of 12.01 billion CNY in 2024, 11.42 billion CNY in 2025, and 12.48 billion CNY in 2026 [1][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to grow from 1.48 CNY in 2022 to 1.89 CNY in 2024, with a slight dip to 1.79 CNY in 2025 before rising to 1.96 CNY in 2026 [1][7]. Operational Performance - The company's gross margin improved to 34.9% in the first three quarters of 2024, up by 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The sales expense ratio increased, but overall sales expenses were well-controlled despite the challenging environment [4]. - The company has successfully completed channel adjustments, leading to a healthier inventory level and positioning for improved demand in the future [3]. Market Position - The company maintains a strong position in the liquid milk and dairy product market, with specific segments like infant formula showing double-digit growth [3]. - The report highlights the company's ability to navigate through competitive pressures and economic challenges, indicating resilience in its operational strategy [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887.SH) [5] Core Views - Yili Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 89.039 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.59%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.868 billion yuan, an increase of 15.87% year-on-year [1] - The company has adjusted its sales rhythm for long-life liquid milk, while low-temperature products have shown growth against the trend [2] - The gross margin has improved, indicating a recovery in profitability, driven by a decrease in raw milk prices and the end of channel adjustments [3] - The forecast for net profit in 2024 has been raised to 12.019 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.64% increase from previous estimates [3] Revenue Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 29.125 billion yuan, down 6.67% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.337 billion yuan, up 8.53% year-on-year [1] - Liquid milk revenue in Q3 2024 was 20.637 billion yuan, down 10.31% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to Q2 2024 [2] - The revenue from milk powder and dairy products in Q3 2024 was 6.821 billion yuan, an increase of 6.56% year-on-year [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 35.03%, and for Q3 2024 it was 35.05%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.46 percentage points [3] - The net profit margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 12.21%, while for Q3 2024 it was 11.46%, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.61 percentage points [3] - The company has managed to reduce sales expense ratios, contributing to improved profitability [3] Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024-2026 is set at 1.89, 1.81, and 1.93 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15, 16, and 15 times [3] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the dairy industry, with clear long-term advantages [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 89.039 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 8.59% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 15.87% to 10.868 billion yuan [2] - The third quarter of 2024 saw total revenue of 29.125 billion yuan, down 6.67% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.337 billion yuan, up 8.53% [2] - The decline in liquid milk revenue was primarily due to channel adjustments, but the revenue drop has narrowed in Q3 [3] - The company’s gross profit margin improved to 34.85% in Q3 2024, up 2.48 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower milk prices [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue from liquid milk, milk powder and dairy products, cold drinks, and other products was 57.524 billion, 21.330 billion, 8.344 billion, and 0.591 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -12.09%, +7.07%, -19.64%, and +25.35% [3] - The company’s net profit for 2024 is projected to be 11.989 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.96% [5] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 20.71% in 2024, indicating strong profitability [9] Regional Performance - Revenue from different regions for the first three quarters of 2024 showed a decline in North China, South China, Central China, and East China, with year-on-year changes of -6.28%, -8.21%, -12.78%, and -11.16% respectively [3] Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts net profits of 11.989 billion, 11.072 billion, and 12.024 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15, 16, and 15 times [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 profit exceeded expectations, indicating a potential for steady improvement in profitability [3] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 887.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 108.68 billion yuan, an increase of 15.9% year-on-year [3] - The report maintains net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 at 116.8 billion, 115.6 billion, and 126.0 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 1.83, 1.82, and 1.98 yuan, respectively [3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 290.4 billion yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 33.37 billion yuan, up 8.5% year-on-year [3] - The company's gross margin improved to 34.9%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower raw milk costs and recovery in product prices following channel adjustments [5] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 11.4%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit margin was 11.0%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [5] Business Segment Performance - The liquid milk, milk powder, and ice cream segments saw year-on-year changes of -10.3%, +6.6%, and -16.7%, respectively, in Q3 2024 [4] - The liquid milk segment remains the industry leader, with strong performance in organic milk and double-digit growth in low-temperature milk [4] - The milk powder segment continued its growth trend, with infant formula experiencing double-digit growth [4] Future Outlook - The company expects liquid milk demand to recover in Q4 2024 due to the implementation of policies promoting milk consumption and pre-holiday stocking ahead of the 2025 Spring Festival [4] - The report anticipates that the gross margin will continue to be supported by declining raw milk costs, with overall profitability expected to improve as revenue rebounds [5]