证券研究报告 ＃＃iinndduussttrryyIIdd＃＃ 铝 ＃investSuggestion＃ ＃ ＃d中yCo国mpa铝ny＃业 （ 601600 ） investSug 增持 ( 维ges持tionC）h 6 减016 值00 影响减少，有望＃ 持title＃ 续受益全产业链优势 ange＃ ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年04 月02 日 投资要点 ＃市场ma数rk据etData＃ ＃summary＃  业绩概要：公司发布2023年年度报告，2023年公司实现营业收入2250.70 市场数据日期 2024-04-01 亿元，同比减少22.65％；实现归母净利润67.17亿元，同比增加60.23%； 收盘价（元） 7.22 实现每股收益0.39元，同比增加63.60%。公司拟向全体股东每10股派发现 总股本（百万股） 17158.38 金红利0.8元（含税）。 流通股本（百万股） 17022.67 净资产（百万元） 60457.74  氧化铝、电解铝利润收窄，但减值拖累有所减少，业绩明显改善。从量来看， 总资产（百万元） 211755.81 2023年公司实现氧化铝产量1667万吨， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, with expected PE ratios of 14, 12, and 10 for 2024-2026 respectively [2][3] Core Views - The company's integrated industrial chain layout and potential for electrolytic aluminum asset integration are key future growth drivers [2] - Under the "China Special Valuation" system, the company's value is expected to be re-evaluated due to its strategic importance in the national economy [2] - The company's performance is expected to show significant elasticity with rising aluminum prices [2] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 225.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.65%, while net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 60.23% to 6.717 billion yuan [1][7] - The company's electrolytic aluminum production in 2023 was 6.79 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.31%, mainly due to production decline at its subsidiary Yunnan Aluminum [1] - The company's asset impairment losses significantly decreased to 755 million yuan in 2023, driving a substantial improvement in performance [14] Industry and Market Analysis - The company has a complete industrial chain layout from upstream (bauxite, alumina, prebaked anodes, coal, power) to midstream (electrolytic aluminum) and downstream [19] - The company controls approximately 2.3 billion tons of bauxite resources, with a domestic self-sufficiency rate of about 70% for bauxite and 100% for alumina [19] - As of the end of 2022, the company had an alumina production capacity of 22.26 million tons/year and an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 7.35 million tons/year [21][23] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to the parent company of 9.111 billion yuan, 10.907 billion yuan, and 12.288 billion yuan in 2024-2026 [2][29] - The acquisition of Yunnan Aluminum has significantly increased the company's green aluminum production capacity, with green electricity accounting for about 80% of Yunnan Aluminum's electricity consumption structure in 2023 [25][27] - The company has several ongoing projects, including the Baotou Aluminum Phase III project and the Guangxi Huasheng Phase II 2 million tons alumina project [24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1][3]. Core Views - The company's profitability has significantly improved, with a steady decline in the debt-to-asset ratio. In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 225.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.65% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.717 billion yuan, an increase of 60.23% year-on-year [1][4][6]. - The increase in net profit is attributed to the decline in prices of raw materials such as petroleum coke and coal, which improved unit profitability. The unit net profit for electrolytic aluminum increased from 1,240 yuan/ton in 2022 to 1,379 yuan/ton in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [1][6][9]. - The company has reduced low-margin trading businesses, leading to an increase in the profitability of the aluminum segment. The gross margin for Q4 2023 increased by 5 percentage points to 21% [1][6][9]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported a gross margin of 12.90%, an increase of 1.43 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 5.59%, an increase of 1.86 percentage points year-on-year. The expense ratio was 5.10%, up 0.70 percentage points year-on-year [1][9]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio at the end of 2023 was 53.30%, a decrease of 5.37 percentage points from the end of 2022, indicating a steady decline over the years [1][9]. - The production of alumina and primary aluminum remained stable in 2023, with alumina production at 21.66 million tons (down 1%) and primary aluminum production at 6.79 million tons (down 1%) [1][17]. Future Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 is as follows: revenue of 222.97 billion yuan in 2024 (down 0.94% year-on-year), 226.59 billion yuan in 2025 (up 1.63% year-on-year), and 231.51 billion yuan in 2026 (up 2.17% year-on-year). The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 8.5 billion yuan in 2024 (up 26.54% year-on-year), 10.22 billion yuan in 2025 (up 20.25% year-on-year), and 11.63 billion yuan in 2026 (up 13.75% year-on-year) [1][18].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Aluminum (601600) [4] Core Views - China Aluminum is a large state-owned enterprise with a fully integrated aluminum industry chain, including bauxite mining, alumina, and electrolytic aluminum production [2][12] - The company reported revenues of 225.07 billion yuan and a net profit of 6.72 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 22.65% and a profit increase of 60.23% [3][17] - The report highlights the ongoing supply-demand mismatch in the aluminum market, indicating potential upward pressure on aluminum prices [3][30] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - China Aluminum is the only international aluminum company with a complete industry chain, covering three main sectors: bauxite, alumina, and electrolytic aluminum, along with sub-industries such as high-purity aluminum and aluminum alloys [2][12] - The company has a strong focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, which has positively impacted profit margins [24] 2. Industry Supply and Demand - The domestic reliance on imported bauxite is increasing, with 2023 imports reaching 99.32 million tons, highlighting the need for stable raw material supply [3][30] - The electrolytic aluminum production capacity is capped at 45 million tons, with limited new capacity expected, creating a supply constraint [36] 3. Key Projects and Integration Advantages - The company has significant bauxite reserves and is expanding its overseas operations, particularly in Guinea, which enhances its integrated advantages [3][42] - Upcoming projects, including a 2 million-ton alumina project in Guangxi and a 500,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project in Qinghai, are expected to boost production and profitability [3][45] 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 8.04 billion yuan, 9.67 billion yuan, and 11.18 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.79, 13.13, and 11.36 [3][48]

[Table_Page] 年报点评|有色金属 证券研究报告 [中Table_国Title] 铝业(601600.SH/02600.HK) 公[Ta司ble评_Inv级est ] 买入-A/买入-H 当前价格 7.11元/4.97港元 Q4 归母净利环降 30%，期待公司资产质量改善 合理价值 9.25元/6.46港元 前次评级 买入/买入 [（Ta注ble：_Su下m文ma如ry]无 特殊说明，货币单位均为人民币，同比、环比数据均经过回溯调整） 报告日期 2024-03-29 核心观点： [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现  公司披露2023年财报，Q4公司归母净利环比减30%，符合预期。据 公司财报，Q4公司实现营收367亿元，同比-42%，环比-33%；归母 32% 21% 净利14亿元，同比-213%，环比-30%；经营净现金流66亿元，同比 10% -21%，环比-34%；资产负债率53.3%，较22年末-5.37PCT，较23Q3 0% 03/23 05/23 07/23 09/23 11/23 01/24 03/24 末-1.04PCT。公司整体业绩符合预期，23Q4业绩环比下降的原 ...

3月27日晚，有色金属龙头中国铝业（601600.SH）发布公告称，拟将所持有的中铜矿产资源有限公司 （以下简称“中铜资源”）6.68%股权转让给中国铜业有限公司（以下简称“中国铜业”），交易对价为 3.28亿元。 若股权转让完成，中铜资源将变成中国铜业的全资子公司，中国铝业将不再持有中铜资源股权。中国铜 业为中国铝业控股股东中国铝业集团有限公司的附属公司，此次交易构成关联交易。 中国铝业参股到中铜资源还得追溯到2015年，彼时参股的主要目的是为获取铝土矿资源，但之后由于中 铜资源的发展定位调整为铜锌铅资源的勘探开发，多年来对中国铝业从中获取铝土矿资源提供的支持和 服务极其有限。 中铜资源提供的铝土矿资源较为有限，自身盈利能力也较差，且资产负债率超过70%，中国铝业作为中 铜资源的参股股东，多年未获得分红收益。 根据公告，中铜资源2023年实现营业收入1.86亿元，净利润亏损1617.27万元。 年报数据显示，中国铝业对中铜资源的长期股权投资余额逐年递减，从2019年初的2.34亿元降至2023年 末的2.04亿元，5年减少12.83%。 “本次交易有利于公司盘活低效资源，获取更多营运资金，提高资产使用效率。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美银证券发布研究报告称，维持中国铝业(02600)“买入”评级，基于对铝价仍持正面 看法，以及其为行业领导者。基于去年业绩及公司最新指引，上调公司今明两年每股盈利预测2%至 7%，目标价由5港元上调至5.7港元。 报告中称，公司去年税后净利润同比升60%至67亿元人民币，为盈喜预告范围中位数，意味去年第四季 税后净利润按季跌30%至13.6亿元人民币。该行指，公司去年资产减值亏损7.55亿元人民币，低于2022 年的49亿元人民币，基于公司减少过时资产减值，信贷减值则由2022年的4.14亿元人民币，改善至去年 的回拨1.46亿元人民币。 该行预测，中国铝价为每吨1.9万元人民币，中铝今年每吨铝毛利料为3000元人民币，受益于供应增长 受限，以及煤炭与阳极炭块成本下降。该行料中国铝需求今年增长2%，受电网投资，以及电动车增长 良好及轻型化趋势支持，抵销房地产需求与光伏需求增长放缓影响。 ...

3月 27日，公司发布23 年年报，23年实现营收2250.71 亿元， 同比-22.65%；归母净利 67.17 亿元，同比+60.23%；扣非归母净 利66.14亿元，同比+111.27%。4Q23营收495.53亿元，环比-0.10%； 归母净利13.64 亿元，环比-29.51%；扣非归母净利16.85 亿元， 环比-17.65%。 2H23 主要板块业绩实现大幅增长。（1）自产氧化铝 23 年外销量 652 万吨，同比+24.67%，Q4外销量151 万吨，环比-4.43%。2H23 氧化铝均价环比+1.79%至 2944.31 元/吨，氧化铝板块营收319.99 亿元，环比+48.65%。全年氧化铝板块税前利润 9.85 亿元，同比 增长7.73 亿元，主因资产减值事项减少。23 年公司氧化铝制造成 本2203 元/吨，同比+5.05%。（2）自产原铝（含合金）23年外销 量680 万吨，同比-0.15%，Q4 外销量186 万吨，环比-1.06%。2H23 原铝板块营收 687.19 亿元，环比+21.43%，主因自产原铝（含合 金）外销量环比+22.22%至 374 万吨，同期长江有色铝均价环 ...

Financial Performance - The net profit of the parent company for 2023 is approximately CNY 3.74 billion, while the consolidated net profit attributable to shareholders is about CNY 6.72 billion[4]. - The company plans to allocate 10% of the parent company's net profit, amounting to CNY 374 million, to statutory reserves and distribute a cash dividend of CNY 1.6 per 10 shares, totaling approximately CNY 1.373 billion, which represents 20.44% of the consolidated net profit[4]. - The company's operating revenue for 2023 was CNY 225,070,880, a decrease of 22.65% compared to CNY 290,987,942 in 2022[18]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 reached CNY 6,716,945, representing a 60.23% increase from CNY 4,192,068 in 2022[18]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was CNY 6,614,183, up 111.27% from CNY 3,130,693 in 2022[18]. - The company's total assets at the end of 2023 were CNY 211,755,809, a slight decrease of 0.28% from CNY 212,347,896 at the end of 2022[18]. - The net assets attributable to shareholders increased by 11.13% to CNY 60,457,735 from CNY 54,401,529 in 2022[18]. - Basic earnings per share for 2023 were CNY 0.391, a 63.60% increase compared to CNY 0.239 in 2022[19]. - The weighted average return on net assets for 2023 was 12.02%, an increase of 5.12 percentage points from 6.90% in 2022[19]. Operational Highlights - The company's alumina production was 1,667,000 tons in 2023, down 5.50% from 1,764,000 tons in 2022, while fine alumina production increased by 16.32% to 499,000 tons[25]. - The total imported bauxite reached 14,165,000 tons in 2023, marking a 12.7% year-on-year increase, with Guinea accounting for 70.1% of imports, up 40.9%[28]. - The company's coal production reached 1,305,000 tons in 2023, reflecting a 21.51% increase from 1,074,000 tons in 2022[25]. - The company's electricity generation was 162 billion kWh in 2023, a decrease of 2.99% from 167 billion kWh in 2022[25]. - In 2023, the company produced 30.42 million tons of bauxite, 16.67 million tons of metallurgical-grade alumina, and 6.79 million tons of primary aluminum (including alloys), with a total coal output of 13.05 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.51%[34]. Market and Industry Trends - The global alumina production was approximately 13,909,000 tons in 2023, with China's production at about 8,227,000 tons, representing a 3.1% increase year-on-year[30]. - The average price of LME three-month aluminum in 2023 was USD 2,288 per ton, a decrease of 15.7% compared to 2022, while the average price of SHFE three-month aluminum was CNY 18,473 per ton, down 6.9% year-on-year[31]. - The overall aluminum market is expected to maintain a basic balance, with traditional construction aluminum demand declining while demand from transportation, electronics, and renewable energy sectors is increasing[117]. - The demand for alumina is expected to remain tight in 2024, primarily driven by the operating rates of electrolytic aluminum capacity, which is nearing its ceiling[116]. Corporate Governance and Compliance - The audit report issued by PwC Zhong Tian is a standard unqualified opinion, ensuring the accuracy and completeness of the financial statements[3]. - The board of directors has confirmed that more than half of the directors can guarantee the authenticity, accuracy, and completeness of the annual report[6]. - The company is focused on enhancing its compliance management system, which includes the development of a comprehensive compliance guidance document and the appointment of a chief compliance officer[42]. - The company has implemented a comprehensive internal control system and governance structure in compliance with relevant laws and regulations[135]. - The company is committed to a clear governance structure, ensuring the protection of shareholders' legal rights and interests[135]. Environmental and Social Responsibility - The company’s carbon emissions were reduced by 1.25 million tons in 2023, reflecting its commitment to green development[38]. - The company completed the reclamation of 7,990 acres of mined land in 2023, achieving a 100% reclamation rate[38]. - The company is committed to ecological protection and high-quality development, focusing on addressing environmental issues in the Yangtze and Yellow River basins[195]. - The company has established a social responsibility committee to advance specific ESG initiatives and tasks[154]. Research and Development - Research and development expenses for 2023 amounted to CNY 3.729 billion, a decrease of CNY 1.076 billion or 22.39% from CNY 4.805 billion last year[64]. - The company established four major technology innovation platforms and formed 21 innovation teams, resulting in 485 patent authorizations in 2023, a 36% increase year-on-year[39]. - The company is committed to strengthening its innovation system, enhancing R&D investment intensity, and improving the overall efficiency of its innovation framework[123]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and invest in new product development to drive future growth[18]. - The company aims to enhance its competitiveness by focusing on resource acquisition, green aluminum smelting, and the development of high-purity aluminum-based new materials[118]. - The company is actively pursuing opportunities for mergers and acquisitions to bolster its market position and expand its operational capabilities[168]. - The company plans to enhance its digital transformation strategy, allocating 200 million for technology upgrades[170]. Employee and Workforce Management - The company’s average employee income increased by 5% year-on-year, with labor productivity rising by 6.3%[41]. - The total number of employees in the company is 64,504, with 162 in the headquarters and 64,342 in major subsidiaries[197]. - A total of 255 employees participated in various training programs in 2023, with over 3,000 training instances completed across 31 projects[199]. - The company emphasizes a performance-based salary system linked to economic benefits, implementing quarterly assessments and differentiated incentives[198].

社会责任暨环境、社会与管治报告 股份代号：2600（香港联合交易所）、 601600（上海证券交易所） 2023 目录 | 董事长致辞 | 04 | 关于本报告 | 06 | 附录 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 总经理致辞 | 05 | 董事会声明 | 10 | 港交所索引 | 91 | GRI 索引 | 95 | 意见反馈表 | 96 | | 公司简介 | 14 | | --- | --- | | 核心理念 | 16 | | 荣誉奖项 | 17 | | 体系架构 | | --- | | 相关方沟通 | | 重大性判定 | | SDGs 响应 | 责任管治 护航稳健运营 | 完善公司治理 | 28 | | --- | --- | | 落实合规运营 | 31 | | 筑牢风险管理 | 33 | | 规范商业道德 | 35 | | 确保信息安全 | 38 | 01 02 03 04 05 走进中国铝业 ESG 管理 低碳环保 共筑绿色生活 42 49 应对气候变化 优化资源使用 保障生产安全 ...