Core Insights - The demand for gold remains strong during the Double Eleven shopping festival, with significant sales growth for various gold jewelry brands [1][2] - The top three brands on the Kuaishou platform during this period are all gold jewelry brands: China Jewelry, Zhou Dafu, and Zijin [2] - Despite fluctuations in international gold prices, consumer interest in gold investment products continues to rise, leading to a surge in sales [1][5] Sales Performance - Nine out of the top 20 brands in the Kuaishou Double Eleven sales ranking are gold jewelry brands, an increase from the previous year [1] - Notable sales growth includes: - Lingsheng Gold with an 830% increase - China Jewelry SINO GEM with a 393% increase - Qing Dafu with a 189% increase [2] Average Transaction Value - Several gold brands achieved high average transaction values during the Double Eleven event: - Zijin at 30,578 yuan - Miaoji at 26,107 yuan - Mankalon at 47,378 yuan - China Jewelry SINO GEM's average price increased from 1,232.58 yuan in 2024 to 5,993 yuan in 2025 [3] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly shifting their focus from decorative gold to investment gold products, with 50% of sales in some stores coming from gold bars [3][5] - The "one gold hard to find" phenomenon is evident, with many gold bars sold out during the shopping festival [5] Price Advantages - Online shopping offers price advantages, with promotional subsidies making gold purchases more attractive [6] - High-karat products from lesser-known brands are perceived as more cost-effective due to platform subsidies [6] Market Trends - The online gold buying trend is expected to continue, driven by consumer sentiment and promotional activities [6] - Other e-commerce platforms also report high sales of gold products, indicating a broader trend in the market [6]

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining's stock price has experienced fluctuations, with a notable increase of 94.25% year-to-date, but a recent decline of 4.12% over the past five trading days [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 18, Zijin Mining's stock price was 28.40 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 754.80 billion CNY [1] - The stock has seen a trading volume of 29.85 billion CNY, with a turnover rate of 0.51% [1] - Year-to-date, the stock has increased by 94.25%, but has decreased by 4.12% in the last five trading days and 5.49% in the last twenty trading days [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Zijin Mining reported a revenue of 254.20 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.33% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 37.86 billion CNY, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 55.45% [2] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Zijin Mining reached 529,800, an increase of 57.83% from the previous period [2] - The company has distributed a total of 59.28 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 27.77 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3] - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 1.35 billion shares, a decrease of 235 million shares from the previous period [3]

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly focusing on the recent trends in the market, including the performance of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF and the underlying factors affecting metal prices and demand [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Non-Ferrous 50 ETF Performance - As of November 17, 2025, the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) decreased by 0.39%, with a latest price of 1.53 yuan [1]. - The ETF has seen a net subscription of 62 million units, with an estimated net subscription amount exceeding 94 million yuan [1]. - The latest scale of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF reached 2.829 billion yuan, with a significant increase in shares by 13.46 million units over the past three months [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Demand - The lithium industry is experiencing high growth due to strong demand in the energy storage market, with expectations of over 60% growth next year driven by domestic pricing policies and international demand [2]. - Copper prices are expected to rise in the long term due to supply constraints, with Freeport reducing copper production and ongoing demand recovery in the cable industry [3]. - The aluminum sector faces challenges due to power supply constraints, which may accelerate the exit of high-cost aluminum production and delay new capacity investments [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF is highlighted as a leading investment option due to its high "gold and copper content," with copper accounting for 33% and gold for 13% of the index [4]. - The ETF has shown superior performance since 2022, with a cumulative return leading its peers and a lower maximum drawdown [5]. - The index's growth is driven by earnings rather than valuation, with a current PE ratio of 23.74, down 61% from five years ago, indicating a favorable valuation [6].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's research report indicates that Zijin Mining's Vice President Lin Hongfu expects gold prices to have further upside potential, with the company focusing on gold production targets of 100 tons annually by 2030, with 30% growth from internal capacity enhancement and 70% from acquisitions, particularly in South America and Africa [1] Group 1: Gold Outlook - The company aims for an annual gold production of 100 tons by 2030, with 30% of this growth expected from internal capacity improvements and 70% from acquisitions [1] - The focus on acquisitions will be particularly strong in South America and Africa [1] Group 2: Copper Outlook - Lin Hongfu anticipates strong growth in copper demand, projecting it to reach 40 million tons annually by 2035, indicating the beginning of a super cycle [1] - The company plans to actively seek acquisitions of copper mining resources due to increasing exploration difficulties and extended capital expenditure cycles [1] Group 3: Lithium Strategy - The company will concentrate on existing lithium projects, targeting an annual production capacity of 200,000 to 250,000 tons by 2028 [1] Group 4: Investment Rating - Citigroup has set a target price of HKD 39 for Zijin Mining and maintains a "Buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 1.07% from November 10 to November 14, outperforming the overall market index [14]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to maintain a bullish outlook in the medium term despite short-term fluctuations due to changing interest rate expectations [4][49]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18%, while the non-ferrous metals sector ranked 16th among 31 sectors, outperforming the index by 1.25 percentage points [14]. - Precious metals increased by 2.77%, energy metals by 2.47%, and industrial metals by 1.56%, while small metals and new materials declined by 1.42% and 3.22%, respectively [14]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices rose with LME copper at $10,846 per ton (up 1.41%) and SHFE copper at ¥86,900 per ton (up 1.12%). Supply remains weak, with Codelco's September production down 7.2% year-on-year [2][31]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum reached $2,859 per ton (up 1.41%), driven by increased demand from the electric vehicle sector, where sales exceeded 50% of total new car sales in October [3][35]. - **Zinc**: Prices fell with LME zinc at $3,015 per ton (down 1.70%) and SHFE zinc at ¥22,470 per ton (down 1.30%). Zinc inventories increased, indicating a bearish trend [41]. - **Tin**: LME tin rose to $36,860 per ton (up 2.90%) due to reduced exports from Indonesia, which halved in October [45]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,084.40 per ounce (up 1.91%), while SHFE gold was at ¥953.20 per gram (up 3.47%). The resumption of U.S. government operations alleviated liquidity concerns, boosting prices [4][49]. - The Federal Reserve's hawkish comments and the lack of supporting economic data have led to a decrease in December rate cut expectations from 95% to around 50%, causing some price corrections in precious metals [50]. Inventory Changes - Copper inventories decreased, with LME at 135,700 tons (down 0.13%) and SHFE at 109,400 tons (down 4.89%) [29][34]. - Aluminum inventories increased slightly, with LME at 552,400 tons (up 0.57%) and SHFE at 114,900 tons (up 1.38%) [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6]. Core Viewpoints - As expectations for interest rate cuts fluctuate, the focus should shift to sectors benefiting from mid-term fiscal policy initiatives [10][13]. - The copper sector is expected to see upward price movement due to supply constraints and increased demand from AI data centers [10][13]. - The lithium carbonate sector is poised for growth as policy improvements enhance the economic viability of energy storage projects [10][14]. - The gold sector is anticipated to experience price stability in the short term, with a bullish outlook for the medium term driven by credit and risk factors [10][15]. Summary by Sections Copper Sector - Supply guidance has been continuously revised downward, with a cumulative reduction exceeding 500,000 tons for 2025, indicating tightening supply conditions [10][13]. - Demand for copper is expected to rise significantly due to the expansion of AI data centers, with projected cumulative usage exceeding 4.3 million tons from 2025 to 2035 [10][13]. Lithium Sector - Recent policy changes have improved the economic feasibility of energy storage, with a notable strategic partnership between Haibo Shichuang and CATL for a significant battery cell procurement order [10][14]. - The demand for lithium is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by favorable policies [10][14]. Steel Sector - Steel production is entering a peak demand season, with slight increases in iron output and a decrease in rebar consumption [10][16][20]. - Overall inventory levels for steel are declining, indicating a tightening market [10][22]. - Profitability for most steel products is recovering, with cost differentiation observed across various steel types [10][26]. New Energy Metals - In October 2025, China's lithium carbonate production surged by 67.28% year-on-year, reflecting strong supply growth [10][41]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with significant year-on-year increases in production and sales [10][45]. Price Trends - Prices for lithium and cobalt have shown upward trends, while nickel prices have experienced slight declines [10][50][51]. - The overall steel price index has seen minor fluctuations, with specific products experiencing varied price movements [10][36][37].

Group 1 - International gold prices have been fluctuating at high levels, with domestic gold jewelry prices also remaining elevated, leading to a consumer preference for lightweight gold products and gold bars [1][2] - As of November 16, 2023, major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook have gold jewelry prices exceeding 1300 RMB per gram, while gold recovery prices have surpassed 900 RMB per gram [1] - The World Gold Council indicates that lightweight gold products are increasingly contributing to retail sales, with 10 grams or less gold products accounting for 45% of jewelry sales in the first half of 2025 [2] Group 2 - The China Gold Association reported a 7.95% year-on-year decline in gold consumption for the first three quarters of 2025, with gold jewelry consumption down 32.50%, while gold bars and coins saw a 24.55% increase [2] - The demand for gold bars remains strong, highlighting gold's role as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainties [2] - The domestic gold production has shown growth, with a total of 392.931 tons produced in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a 3.6% increase year-on-year [3][4] Group 3 - Companies in the gold jewelry sector are focusing on enhancing the gross profit contribution per gram of gold jewelry through brand fee increases, wholesale margin improvements, and optimizing product structures [3] - Zijin Mining reported a 20% year-on-year increase in gold production, with a total of 65 tons produced in the first three quarters of 2025, contributing to significant revenue growth [4] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange have seen substantial increases in trading volumes and values, indicating a robust market activity [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a high prosperity trend despite fluctuating interest rate expectations [3][4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the non-ferrous metals index outperformed the broader market indices, with significant year-to-date gains across various metal categories, particularly energy metals and precious metals [5][9]. - The report suggests that the recent interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical developments will continue to influence metal prices positively, particularly for gold and silver [4][22]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.18%, while the non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.07%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 2.15 percentage points [5]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 77.71%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 by 60.09 percentage points [8]. Price Changes and Industry Key Companies Valuation - Precious metals saw a price increase, with gold prices rising by 1.91% and silver by 4.51% [14]. - The report provides detailed price changes for various metals, including copper, aluminum, and lithium, indicating a mixed performance with some metals experiencing price increases while others faced declines [15][17]. - Key companies in the industry are highlighted with their respective valuations, showing a range of price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios, indicating potential investment opportunities [19][20]. Precious Metals - The report notes an increase in gold ETF holdings, reflecting growing investor confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset [22]. - The gold-silver ratio is reported at 78.3, suggesting potential shifts in demand dynamics between these two precious metals [23]. Industrial Metals - The report discusses the supply and demand dynamics for copper, noting a decrease in domestic social inventory and fluctuations in production rates [28]. - For aluminum, the report indicates an increase in downstream processing rates and a tightening supply-demand balance, suggesting a positive price outlook [42][44]. Small Metals - The report highlights the tight supply conditions for cobalt due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while lithium prices continue to rise due to strong demand in energy storage [9][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3 2025, the scale of public offering fixed - income + funds increased significantly compared to the previous quarter, reaching a record high, with the increment mainly coming from secondary bond funds, possibly due to institutional funds such as insurance funds and wealth management [2][7]. - The concentration of leading institutions has increased. The proportion of the top ten fund companies in the fixed - income + fund scale has risen from 43.0% in Q2 2025 to 46.0% in Q3 2025 [2]. - The equity position of fixed - income + funds has risen to the highest level since Q1 24, with obvious increased allocation to equities. The funds mainly increased their holdings in the manufacturing sector while also considering finance, technology, and basic industries [2]. - Fixed - income + funds' top ten heavy - position stocks are relatively stable overall, and the ten stocks with the most increased holdings are mainly concentrated in the technology field [2]. - In Q3 2025, convertible bond funds and secondary bond funds became the main forces for increasing convertible bonds. Fixed - income + funds continued to prefer convertible bonds in the banking sector, but the proportion of bank - sector convertible bonds decreased, while the proportions of convertible bonds in the power equipment, non - bank finance, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industries increased significantly [2][3]. - There is no significant correlation between the scale of fixed - income + funds and their yield distribution characteristics. The income of small - and medium - scale products is more elastic, and in Q3 2025, the proportion of products with positive income is 83.49%, with an average yield of about 3.16% [3][66]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Scale: Secondary Bond Funds Become the Main Force for Expansion - Fixed - income + funds are a hybrid investment strategy that uses fixed - income assets as the core allocation and enhances returns through a small amount of equity - asset allocation. Their scale increased rapidly in Q2 and Q3 25, reaching over 2.5 trillion yuan again in Q3 25 [7]. - In Q3 2025, the scale of public offering fixed - income + funds increased significantly compared to the previous quarter, reaching a record high. The total net asset value of fixed - income + funds was about 2.75 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 0.5 trillion yuan from Q2 25, with a month - on - month increase of 23.2%. The increment mainly came from secondary bond funds, whose scale exceeded that of primary bond funds and became the largest type of fixed - income + funds [2][7]. - The number of fixed - income + funds increased slightly in Q3 2025, also reaching a record high. The proportion of secondary bond funds in the total market's net asset value increased significantly, while the proportions of primary bond funds and partial - debt hybrid funds decreased slightly [10][13]. - The significant increase in the scale of secondary bond funds in Q3 may be mainly due to institutional funds such as insurance funds and wealth management. For example, the proportion of secondary bond funds in bank wealth - management bond - fund investments increased by 6.3 pct month - on - month to 8.9%, and the investment scale increased by 0.06 trillion yuan to 0.09 trillion yuan [2][14]. 3.2 Institutional Scale: Concentration of Leading Institutions Increases 3.2.1 Stock Scale Ranking - In Q3 2025, the proportion of the top ten public - offering fund companies in the fixed - income + fund scale increased month - on - month, and the industry concentration increased. The proportion of the top five fund companies increased from 26.2% in Q2 2025 to 28.9% in Q3 2025, and the proportion of the top ten increased from 43.0% to 46.0% [20]. - As of the end of September 2025, the top ten fund companies in the fixed - income + fund scale were E Fund, Invesco Great Wall Fund, Fullgoal Fund, Huatai - PineBridge Fund, Bosera Fund, China Merchants Fund, GF Fund, China Europe Fund, China Asset Management, and Penghua Fund [20]. 3.2.2 Stock Scale Changes - In Q3 2025, the scale changes of different - scale fund companies in the fixed - income + fund field showed significant differentiation. Large - scale public - offering fund companies had a scale increase far exceeding the industry average, while small - and medium - sized fund companies had little scale change, and some even shrank [26]. - Different types of fund companies also showed significant differentiation in the scale growth of fixed - income + funds in Q3 2025. Private - equity - affiliated fund companies led with an increase of 85.89 billion yuan, followed by securities - affiliated and bank - affiliated fund companies, while insurance - affiliated fund companies had a contraction of 3.6 billion yuan [29]. - In Q3 2025, leading institutions became the main force for growth. The top ten public - offering fund companies in the scale growth of fixed - income + funds were Invesco Great Wall Fund, Fullgoal Fund, Bosera Fund, Huatai - PineBridge Fund, China Europe Fund, E Fund, Yongying Fund, Penghua Fund, GF Fund, and Huashang Fund [30]. 3.3 Asset Allocation Changes: Increase in Equity Position 3.3.1 Changes in the Allocation of Major Asset Classes of Fixed - Income + Funds - According to Q3 2025 data, the asset - allocation structure of fixed - income + funds was adjusted, and the stock position rose to the highest level since Q1 24. The market - wide market - value proportions of stocks, bonds, and cash in fixed - income + funds in Q3 25 were 8.9%, 87.1%, and 1.4% respectively, with corresponding scale increases of 1020.9 billion yuan, 3759.6 billion yuan, and 35.8 billion yuan compared to Q2 25 [35]. - Except for convertible bond funds, the stock - holding proportions of other types of bond funds increased to varying degrees compared to the previous quarter, while the bond - holding proportions decreased to varying degrees [39]. 3.3.2 Changes in Stock - Asset Investment - Fixed - income + funds' equity assets are mainly invested in the manufacturing sector. In Q3 2025, the manufacturing sector accounted for about 63% of the investment scale, followed by the mining, finance, and information transmission, software, and information technology services industries, with a total proportion of about 24% [47]. - In Q3 2025, the manufacturing industry was the most significantly increased industry, with a scale increase of 634 billion yuan and a proportion increase of 6.03 percentage points. The mining and information transmission, software, and information technology services industries also had increased investment, while the power, construction, real estate, and education industries had reduced investment [49]. - In Q3 2025, the top ten heavy - position stocks of fixed - income + funds were relatively stable overall. Zijin Mining, CATL, and Tencent Holdings remained in the top three, and technology stocks such as Alibaba - W, Zhongji Innolight, Luxshare Precision, and SMIC entered the top ten. The overall allocation direction of the top ten heavy - position stocks continued to hold the growth sector [50]. - The ten stocks with the most increased holdings by fixed - income + funds in Q3 2025 were mainly concentrated in the technology field, and 8 of them also entered the top ten heavy - position stocks of public - offering funds in the same quarter [52]. 3.3.3 Changes in Convertible - Bond Asset Investment - Among fixed - income + funds, convertible bond funds and secondary bond funds are the main holders of convertible bonds. In Q3 2025, convertible bond funds and secondary bond funds became the main forces for increasing convertible bonds, while primary bond funds and partial - debt hybrid funds reduced their holdings [53][55]. - Overall, about 11.19% of fixed - income + funds' assets were allocated to convertible bonds in Q3 2025. Only the convertible - bond position of convertible bond funds increased month - on - month, while the positions of other fixed - income + funds decreased [55]. - Among the top five heavy - position bonds of fixed - income + funds, financial bonds and treasury bonds dominated in Q3 2025, with a total proportion of about 80%, and convertible bonds accounted for 7.5% [56]. - Among the top five heavy - position bonds of fixed - income + funds in Q3 2025, bank - sector convertible bonds still dominated, but the proportion decreased, while the proportions of convertible bonds in the power equipment, non - bank finance, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industries increased significantly [61]. - The top ten convertible bonds with the most increased holdings by fixed - income + funds in Q3 2025 were mainly concentrated in the banking, non - bank finance, and power equipment sectors, and 8 of them also entered the top ten in the convertible - bond holding scale of fixed - income + funds in the same quarter [65]. 3.4 Performance - According to Q3 2025 data, there is no significant correlation between the scale of fixed - income + funds and their yield distribution characteristics. The income of small - and medium - scale products is more elastic. In Q3 2025, the proportion of products with positive income was 83.49%, and the average yield was about 3.16% [66]. - The top ten fixed - income + funds with outstanding performance in Q3 2025 included Huaan Zhilian Hybrid (LOF), Southern Changyuan Convertible Bond, etc. These funds achieved excess returns through flexible allocation of equity positions such as technology and convertible - bond assets [67]. - Among the top ten heavy - position stocks of fixed - income + funds with a quarterly yield of over 18% in Q3 2025, the technology - growth sector dominated, and the holdings were relatively decentralized, reflecting the differentiated positioning of different fixed - income + products' investment strategies [68].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - Short-term copper prices are expected to fluctuate, but there is optimism for an upward trend due to demand recovery. As of November 14, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 86,900 CNY/ton, up 1.12% from November 7, and LME copper closed at 10,846 USD/ton, up 1.41% [1]. - Supply remains tight as Freeport has reduced copper production for 2025-2026, while cable companies are seeing a recovery in operating rates amid rising copper prices. The demand-supply balance is expected to remain tight, supporting further price increases [1][4]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 1.1%, while LME copper inventory fell by 0.4%. As of November 14, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory was 648,000 tons, up 2.9% from the previous week [2][26]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 621,000 tons as of November 10, 2025, up 2.5% from November 3. LME copper global inventory was 136,000 tons, down 0.4% [2][26]. Supply - The price difference between refined and scrap copper increased by 500 CNY/ton this week, reaching 3,488 CNY/ton as of November 14, 2025 [2][55]. - China's copper concentrate production in July 2025 was 138,000 tons, down 6.3% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year [2][47]. Smelting - The TC spot price decreased by 0.5 USD/ton this week, with the current TC spot price at -41.82 USD/ton, the lowest since September 2007 [3][62]. - China's electrolytic copper production in October 2025 was 1.0916 million tons, down 2.6% month-on-month but up 9.6% year-on-year [3][67]. Demand - Cable companies' operating rates increased by 0.9 percentage points this week, reaching 64.36% as of November 13, 2025 [3][76]. - Air conditioning production is expected to decline year-on-year by 23.7% in November, 12.8% in December, but improve by 16.1% in January 2026 [3][94]. Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 6% this week, with a total position of 192,000 lots as of November 14, 2025 [4][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that with tightening supply and improving demand, copper prices are likely to continue rising. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, with a focus on Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4][5].