Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The mid - to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish, and in the short - term, although the multi - short game is intense, the bulls are mainly in control. Precious metal prices are expected to stop falling and rebound. The support for London gold is 3340, with resistance at 3400 and 3450; the support for London silver is 37, with resistance at 38. It is recommended to buy on dips [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [行情回顾] - On Monday, the precious metal market stopped falling and rebounded. The SHFE gold 2510 main contract closed at 781.42 yuan/gram, up 1.36%; the SHFE silver 2510 contract closed at 9039 yuan/kilogram, up 1.3%. The main reason for the price increase was the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut in September [2]. [本周关注] - This week's data is light. Pay attention to the US ISM Services PMI and import - export data on Tuesday night. Regarding events, on Thursday at 03:10, 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will speak; at 22:00, 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will participate in a fireside chat on monetary policy; on Friday at 22:20, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak. On Thursday at 19:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report [3]. [南华观点] - The mid - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. In the short - term, the multi - short game is fierce, but the bulls control the rhythm. The precious metal prices are expected to stop falling and rise. For London gold, the support level is 3340, and the resistance levels are 3400 and 3450; for London silver, the support level is 37, and the resistance level is 38. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [4]. [贵金属期现价格表] - SHFE gold main continuous contract: 781.42 yuan/gram, up 10.7 yuan, or 1.39%. SGX gold TD: 775.55 yuan/gram, up 8.37 yuan, or 1.09%. CME gold main contract: 3428.6 dollars/ounce, up 12.6 dollars, or 0.37%. SHFE silver main continuous contract: 9039 yuan/kilogram, up 121 yuan, or 1.36%. SGX silver TD: 8999 yuan/kilogram, up 111 yuan, or 1.25%. CME silver main contract: 37.445 dollars/ounce, up 0.34 dollars, or 0.92%. SHFE - TD gold: 5.87 yuan/gram, up 2.33 yuan, or 65.82%. SHFE - TD silver: 40 yuan/kilogram, up 10 yuan, or - 37.5%. CME gold - silver ratio: 91.5636, down 0.4995, or - 0.54% [5]. [库存持仓表] - SHFE gold inventory: 35889 kilograms, up 144 kilograms, or 0.4%. CME gold inventory: 1206.6166 tons, up 2.426 tons, or 0.2%. SHFE gold position: 217696 lots, down 1072 lots, or - 0.49%. SPDR gold position: 954.8 tons, up 1.72 tons, or 0.18%. SHFE silver inventory: 1174.273 tons, down 9.684 tons, or - 0.82%. CME silver inventory: 15757.0987 tons, down 1.8489 tons, or - 0.01%. SGX silver inventory: 1368.435 tons, up 56.415 tons, or 4.3%. SHFE silver position: 371051 lots, up 5858 lots, or 1.6%. SLV silver position: 15021.873699 tons, down 34.7912 tons, or - 0.23% [14]. [股债商汇总览] - US Dollar Index: 98.757, up 0.0664, or 0.07%. US Dollar to Chinese Yuan: 7.1842, down 0.0093, or - 0.13%. Dow Jones Industrial Average: 44173.64 points, up 585.06 points, or 1.34%. WTI crude oil spot: 67.33 dollars/barrel, down 1.93 dollars, or - 2.79%. LmeS copper 03: 9708.5 dollars/ton, up 75.5 dollars, or 0.78%. 10 - year US Treasury yield: 4.22%, down 0.01%, or - 0.24%. 10 - year US real interest rate: 1.85%, down 0.05%, or - 2.63%. 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread: 0.54%, up 0.11%, or 25.58% [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent mild policy statements have revised the market's expectations of the "supply - side" reform, cooling market sentiment. The market may return to the fundamental logic of supply - demand, and the coking coal near - month contract faces delivery pressure with short - term price correction pressure [4]. - The strict inspection of over - production in coking coal mines is true, which limits the coking coal开工率 in the second half of the year. The "anti - involution" policy details are yet to be released, and policy expectations will support the overall valuation of commodities. The pre - parade production limit expectation will support the finished product prices. The report is not pessimistic about the medium - to - long - term trend of coal and coke [4]. - In terms of operation, due to the recent sharp fluctuations in the market, unilateral speculation is not recommended. The previously recommended coking coal 9 - 1 reverse spread can consider taking profits, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding the 09 on - disk coking profit [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Dual - Coking Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for coking coal is 950 - 1350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. For coke, the monthly price range forecast is 1480 - 1900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13% [3]. 3.2. Dual - Coking Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For the arbitrage scenario of inter - month arbitrage with no spot exposure, the recommended strategy is to short the coking coal 9 - 1 spread. The hedging tools are jm2509&jm2601, the trading direction is to sell, and the recommended entry range is (-40, -30) [3]. 3.3. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - On August 4, 2025, compared with August 1, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantities of various black commodities changed. For example, the quantity of rebar decreased by 2394 tons to 82640 tons, the quantity of hot - rolled coil decreased by 1176 tons to 55998 tons, the quantity of coking coal decreased by 500 hands to 0 hands, etc. [3] 3.4. Core Contradictions - The recent policy is mild, which has revised the market's expectations of the "supply - side" reform. The market sentiment has cooled, and the market may return to the supply - demand fundamental logic. The coking coal near - month contract has delivery pressure and short - term price correction pressure. However, the coking coal production is restricted in the second half of the year, and policy expectations support the overall valuation of commodities. The report is not pessimistic about the medium - to - long - term trend of coal and coke [4]. 3.5. Bullish Interpretations - There is still an expectation of "anti - involution" in coal mines, and the mine production increase space in the second half of the year may be limited. - The downstream steel mills have good profits, and raw materials have a basis for price increases. - There is room for policy expectation games before the Fourth Plenary Session in October [5]. 3.6. Bearish Interpretations - The import profit of overseas coal has recovered, and there is pressure on subsequent arrivals. - The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has recovered, with more than 1000 trucks per day currently. - The off - balance - sheet inventory of futures and spot flows into the market, pressuring the spot price [5]. 3.7. Coal and Coke Futures Prices - The report provides the coal and coke futures prices on August 4, 2025, August 1, 2025, and July 28, 2025, including coking coal and coke warehouse receipt costs, basis, inter - month spreads, on - disk coking profit, and various ratios such as the main mine - coke ratio, main screw - coke ratio, and main carbon - coal ratio, as well as their daily and weekly changes [6]. 3.8. Coal and Coke Spot Prices - The report shows the coal and coke spot prices on August 4, 2025, August 1, 2025, and July 28, 2025, including the prices of various types of coking coal and coke, their price types, units, and daily and weekly changes, as well as import and export profits and the coking coal/thermal coal ratio [7][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The BDI composite freight index and sub - vessel type freight indices all declined this week, with mainstream vessel types dropping by over 10%. The demand for shipping vessels showed no significant increase compared to the same period last week. The decline in most agricultural product shipping demand, except for an increase in soybean shipping volume, supported the demand for Panamax vessels but dragged down the demand for Handysize vessels. Meanwhile, the high shipping volumes of coal and iron ore supported the demand for Capesize vessels [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Index Review 3.1.1 BDI Freight Index Analysis - On August 1st, compared with the previous week, the BDI composite freight index and its sub - vessel type freight indices all declined. The BDI composite freight index closed at 2018 points, down 10.59% week - on - week; the BCI freight index closed at 3296 points, down 13.92% week - on - week; the BPI freight index closed at 1644 points, down 10.55% week - on - week; the BSI freight index closed at 1259 points, down 1.93% week - on - week; the BHSI freight index closed at 678 points, down 0.59% week - on - week [4]. 3.1.2 FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Index - On August 1st, the FDI index rebounded across the board, but most routes in the FDI rental index declined, mainly concentrated in some routes of Panamax and Supramax vessels. The FDI composite freight index closed at 1318.03 points, up 1.58% month - on - month; the FDI rental index closed at 1606.13 points, up 1.79% month - on - month. Among them, the Capesize vessel rental index closed at 1729.93 points, up 7.39% month - on - month; the Panamax vessel rental index closed at 1552.84 points, down 3.43% month - on - month; the Handymax vessel rental index closed at 1494.35 points, down 0.62% month - on - month; the FDI freight index closed at 1125.97 points, up 1.38% month - on - month [7]. 3.2 Dry Bulk Shipping Situation Tracking 3.2.1 Number of Shipping Vessels Used by Shipping Countries on the Day - On August 4th, among major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 38 shipping vessels, Russia used 8, Argentina used 22, and Australia used 5. Among major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 51, Guinea used 25, Indonesia used 33, Russia used 21, South Africa used 16, Brazil used 11, and the United States used 8 [16][17]. 3.2.2 Analysis of Shipping Volume and Vessel Usage on the Day - In terms of agricultural product shipping, 14 vessels were used for corn shipping, 14 for wheat, 22 for soybeans, 9 for soybean meal, and 12 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipping, 95 vessels were used for coal shipping, 68 for iron ore, and 15 for other dry goods. In terms of vessel types, the most vessels required for agricultural product shipping were Post - Panamax vessels (36), followed by Supramax vessels (19) and Handysize vessels (15). For industrial product shipping, the most vessels required were Capesize vessels (77), followed by Post - Panamax vessels (63) and Supramax vessels (47) [18]. 3.3 Tracking of the Number of Vessels at Major Ports - This week's data showed that the number of vessels at ports in China, Indonesia, and South Africa continued to increase. Adjusted data showed that from July 1st to August 4th, there was "one port with a decrease and four ports with an increase". The number of dry bulk vessels docked at Chinese ports increased significantly by 30 compared to the previous period; the number of vessels docked at six Australian ports decreased by 16; the number of vessels docked at six Indonesian ports increased by 1; the number of vessels docked at five Brazilian ports increased by 5; and the number of vessels docked at one South African port increased by 1 [19]. 3.4 Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On August 1st, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $40 per ton. On August 4th, the near - term shipping quote for Brazilian soybeans was 3909.75 yuan per ton. On August 1st, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $27,300 per day, and the latest quote for the iron ore CIF price was $116.65 per thousand tons. On August 1st, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $12,235 per day, and the latest quote for the steam coal CIF price was 535.95 yuan per ton. On August 1st, the Handysize vessel freight index was quoted at 678.4 points, and the CIF price of 4 - meter medium - grade radiata pine was quoted at $114 per cubic meter [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, crude oil showed a trend of rising first and then falling. Trump's extreme pressure on Russia triggered supply concerns and pushed up the geopolitical premium, but the implementation of subsequent measures remains to be observed. In the second half, due to the over - rise correction of the market, the non - farm payrolls data in the US falling short of expectations and the downward revision of the previous value, the fear of economic recession reignited, the VIX index soared, and the capital flight impacted the market, leading to the decline of crude oil. The result of the OPEC+ meeting was in line with expectations. It will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September and end the first - stage production restoration ahead of schedule. The subsequent policy will be discussed at the meeting on September 7. Recently, attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment, tracking the VIX index and the US stocks [4] Market Trends - OPEC+ agreed to continue significant production increases in September and exit the current round of production cuts one year ahead of schedule. Eight member countries of OPEC+ reached a resolution to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September through a video conference, marking that the organization completed the current - stage supply restoration plan one year ahead of schedule and fully exited the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut agreement implemented by eight member countries since 2023, including the UAE's additional phased production increase quota. Another voluntary production cut agreement of about 1.66 million barrels per day will be re - evaluated by the end of December. This production increase marks a strategic shift of OPEC and its partners from defending oil prices to releasing production capacity, effectively suppressing the impact of geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand peaks on oil prices [4] - As the oil prices in the Middle East rise, Asia will increase its imports of US WTI crude oil in the fourth quarter. Due to the strong demand for high - sulfur crude oil in Asia, the prices of Dubai crude oil and Murban crude oil, the benchmark prices of Middle Eastern crude oil, have risen this month, narrowing the price difference with the low - sulfur light US WTI crude oil. The WTI arbitrage window for Asia has been wide open in the past week, especially for ships arriving in early November. US crude oil producer Occidental Petroleum has sold WTI crude oil to Japanese refiner Taiyo Oil at a premium of about $3.50 per barrel over the October Dubai crude oil quote for delivery in October [5] - The Iranian foreign minister stated that the US needs to compensate for the losses in the conflict before the nuclear negotiations can restart. Iran has set new conditions for restarting the nuclear negotiations with the Trump administration. The US must compensate Iran for the losses caused during the Iran - Israel conflict last month. Iran will not agree to resume negotiations without addressing these issues [5] - The annual rate of the US core PCE price index in June was 2.8%, higher than the expected 2.70%, and the previous value was revised from 2.70% to 2.8%. The monthly rate of the core PCE price index in June was 0.3%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 0.20%. The overall PCE index including food and energy rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year, respectively higher than the market expectations of 0.23% and 2.5%. The personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.3% month - on - month, pushing the annual rate to 2.6%, the highest level since February. Weak spending is due to the cooling of the labor market. Real disposable income remained flat after falling in May, and wages and salaries hardly increased. The July employment report is expected to show a continued slowdown in recruitment and a slight rise in the unemployment rate. The savings rate remained at 4.5%. After the data was released, the spot gold fluctuated slightly in the short term, and the US dollar index rose slightly in the short term [6] - The total number of US oil rigs in the week ending August 1 was 410, compared with 415 in the previous week. As of the week ending July 29, speculators' net long positions in Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange increased by 33,959 lots to 261,352 lots. In the week ending July 29, speculators' net long positions in NYMEX WTI crude oil increased by 1,752 lots to 87,840 lots [7] EIA Weekly Inventory - As of the week ending July 25, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 829.432 million barrels, an increase of 7.94 million barrels from the previous week; the US commercial crude oil inventory was 426.691 million barrels, an increase of 7.7 million barrels from the previous week; the total US gasoline inventory was 228.405 million barrels, a decrease of 2.73 million barrels from the previous week; the distillate oil inventory was 113.536 million barrels, an increase of 3.64 million barrels from the previous week. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 22.553 million barrels, an increase of 0.69 million barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve was 402.741 million barrels, an increase of 0.24 million barrels. The crude oil inventory was 1.47% lower than the same period last year and 6% lower than the average of the past five years; the gasoline inventory was 2.08% higher than the same period last year and 1% lower than the average of the past five years; the distillate oil inventory was 10.49% lower than the same period last year and 16% lower than the average of the past five years [8] - As of the week ending July 25, the US daily crude oil production was 13.314 million barrels, an increase of 41,000 barrels from the previous week and an increase of 14,000 barrels from the same period last year; the total processing volume of US refineries was 16.911 million barrels per day on average, a decrease of 25,000 barrels from the previous week; the refinery utilization rate was 95.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous week [8] - The increase in the US EIA crude oil inventory in the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending January 31, 2025. The decrease in the US EIA gasoline inventory in the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending April 25, 2025. The increase in domestic crude oil production in the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending March 7, 2025 [9]

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 4, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Nonferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The decline in copper prices during the week was mainly due to the adjustment of the US copper tariff policy. Trump announced a 50% import tariff on copper tubes, pipe fittings, and other semi - finished copper products from this Friday, and extended it to copper - intensive finished products. However, core upstream products were excluded. The price of SHFE copper is still closely linked to LME copper, and weak downstream demand is expected to emerge this week. The price difference between COMEX copper and LME, SHFE copper will fluctuate and is expected to balance in the next 2 trading days. The high copper inventory in the COMEX market may not flow out, but the short - term US market cannot digest it, which affects the price difference between LME and COMEX [3] Key Points from Different Sections Copper Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest copper price is 78,400 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to sell 75% of SHFE copper main - contract futures at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of call options (CU2509C82000) when volatility is relatively stable. For raw - material management with low raw - material inventory, it is recommended to buy 75% of SHFE copper main - contract futures at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Market Factors Bullish Factors - Readjustment of the US tariff policy [4] - Decline of the US dollar index due to employment data [6] - Obvious downward support [6] Bearish Factors - Repeated tariff policies [6] - Decrease in global demand due to tariff policies [6] - Excessively high COMEX inventory caused by the US copper tariff policy adjustment [6] Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - The latest price of SHFE copper main contract is 78,400 yuan/ton with no daily change. SHFE copper continuous - first contract is 78,400 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan (0.46%), and SHFE copper continuous - third contract is 78,330 yuan/ton with no daily change. The price of LME copper 3M is 9,633 dollars/ton, up 26 dollars (0.27%), and the SHFE - LME ratio is 8.21, up 0.06 (0.74%) [2][5][7] Spot Data - The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaom, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 78,330 yuan/ton, 78,325 yuan/ton, 78,160 yuan/ton, and 78,460 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.3%, 0.27%, 0.31%, and 0.28%. The changes in the corresponding spot premium/discount also vary [9] Copper Scrap - Refined Spread - The current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 805.43 yuan/ton, down 38.61 yuan (- 4.57%); the reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1484.65 yuan/ton, down 1.45 yuan (- 0.1%). Similar changes are seen in the non - tax - included spreads [12] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories Warehouse Receipts - The total SHFE copper warehouse receipts are 20,349 tons, up 727 tons (3.71%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 1,553 tons, down 1,760 tons (- 53.12%) [15] Inventories - The total LME copper inventory is 141,750 tons, up 3,550 tons (2.57%); the total COMEX copper inventory is 259,681 tons, up 11,046 tons (4.44%) [17][20] Copper Import Profit and Processing Fees - The copper import profit is - 249.88 yuan/ton, down 87.93 yuan (54.29%); the copper concentrate TC is - 42 dollars/ton, up 0.5 dollars (- 1.18%) [21]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 4, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility - Latest Closing Price of Tin: 264,950 yuan/ton [2] - Monthly Price Range Forecast: 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility: 14.36% [2] - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 26.1% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Recommendations Inventory Management - Situation: High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline [2] - Strategy: Short Shanghai Tin main futures contract (75% at around 275,000 yuan/ton) and sell call options (SN2509C275000, 25% when volatility is appropriate) [2] Raw Material Management - Situation: Low raw material inventory, worried about price increase [2] - Strategy: Long Shanghai Tin main futures contract (50% at around 230,000 yuan/ton) and sell put options (SN2509P245000, 25% when volatility is appropriate) [2] Group 4: Core Viewpoint - Tin price declined slightly during the week as expected due to limited macro - impact [3] - Myanmar's tin mine mining licenses are mostly approved, expected to resume work in late August, which is a major factor for tin fundamentals but unlikely to affect short - term supply - demand [3] - If Myanmar's resumption is below expectations again, previous negative factors may turn into short - term positives [3] - Tin price may fluctuate in the next week, and supply - side topics still have room for speculation [3] Group 5: Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Easing of Sino - US tariff policies [4] - Semiconductor sector is still in an expansion cycle [4] - Myanmar's production resumption is below expectations [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy reversals [5] - Myanmar's tin ore flowing into China [5] - Slowdown of semiconductor sector expansion and transition from expansion to contraction cycle [5] Group 6: Futures Market Data | Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Tin Main | yuan/ton | 264,950 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 264,950 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 265,220 | 0 | 0% | | LME Tin 3M | US dollars/ton | 33,215 | 530 | 1.62% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.12 | 0.1 | 1.25% | [6] Group 7: Spot Market Data | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Tin Ingot | yuan/ton | 264,600 | - 6,500 | - 2.4% | | 1 Tin Premium | yuan/ton | 500 | - 200 | - 28.57% | | 40% Tin Concentrate | yuan/ton | 252,600 | - 6,500 | - 2.51% | | 60% Tin Concentrate | yuan/ton | 256,600 | - 6,500 | - 2.47% | | Solder Bar (60A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 172,250 | - 3,500 | - 1.99% | | Solder Bar (63A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 179,750 | - 3,500 | - 1.91% | | Lead - free Solder | yuan/ton | 270,750 | - 6,500 | - 2.34% | [11] Group 8: Inventory Data | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Futures Exchange Tin Warehouse Receipt (Total) | tons | 7,286 | - 143 | - 1.92% | | Shanghai Futures Exchange Tin Warehouse Receipt (Guangdong) | tons | 4,853 | 22 | 0.46% | | Shanghai Futures Exchange Tin Warehouse Receipt (Shanghai) | tons | 1,562 | - 165 | - 9.55% | | LME Tin Inventory (Total) | tons | 1,855 | 35 | 1.92% | [19] Group 9: Other Data | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Tin Import Profit and Loss | yuan/ton | - 14,300.05 | 1,473.25 | - 9.34% | | 40% Tin Ore Processing Fee | yuan/ton | 12,200 | 0 | 0% | | 60% Tin Ore Processing Fee | yuan/ton | 10,050 | - 500 | - 4.74% | [20]

Group 1: Market Performance Summary - The Nanhua Composite Index declined by -0.19% based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1]. - Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Metal Index rose by 0.07%, while the rest declined. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the largest decline of -0.68%, and the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index had the smallest decline of -0.02% [1][2]. - In the theme indices, the Oilseeds and Oils Index had the largest increase of 0.27%, and the Mini Composite Index had the smallest increase of 0.03%. The Energy Index had the largest decline of -0.73%, and the Black Raw Materials Index had the smallest decline of -0.04% [1][2]. - Among the single - variety commodity futures indices, the jujube index rose by 2.1%, and the coking coal index had the largest decline of -5.38% [2]. Group 2: Index Data Details - Various index data including today's closing price, previous closing price, annualized return, annualized volatility are presented, such as the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index (NHAl), Mini Composite Index (NHClM), etc. [2] Group 3: Industry Chain and Single - Variety Index Changes - The single - variety index daily changes and industry chain diagrams of the energy and chemical, black, and agricultural product sectors are provided. For example, in the energy and chemical sector, glass declined by -1.34%, and in the agricultural product sector, palm oil rose by 0.11% [2][8]

Report Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook on the market [1][3][5] Core Viewpoints - The recent decline in the market is a technical adjustment due to delivery and position - limit measures, not the end of the anti - involution theme market, with a relatively large adjustment amplitude. The market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [3][5] - The feed sector is expected to be bullish [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Week Market Data Overview - Anti - involution varieties fluctuated sharply last week. Due to concentrated capital inflows and slow position transfers of the main contracts, the exchange introduced position - limit measures, leading to a sharp decline in the main contracts as liquidity suddenly flowed out. The 09 contracts of glass, soda ash, and coking coal led the decline. However, the anti - involution theme is a long - term policy strategy. Although some varieties have high inventories, the probability of prices falling back to the June lows is extremely low. The market recognizes the anti - involution policy, but the high positions in the near - term contracts forced the exchange to take measures to resolve potential delivery risks. Additionally, soybean meal has deviated from the decline of US soybeans recently [4] Market Data Tables - **Plate Capital Flow**: The total capital outflow was 21.902 billion yuan. Among them, the precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemicals, feed and breeding, and soft commodities sectors all had capital outflows, while the oil and fat sector had a capital inflow of 646 million yuan [8] - **Black and Non - ferrous Weekly Data**: The table shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various black and non - ferrous varieties, such as iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. For example, the price percentile of iron ore is 18.7%, and the inventory percentile is 42.6% [8] - **Energy and Chemical Weekly Data**: The table presents the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of energy and chemical varieties, including fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. For instance, the price percentile of fuel oil is 7.9%, and the inventory percentile is 43.7% [10] - **Agricultural Product Weekly Data**: The table shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of agricultural products, such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc. For example, the price percentile of soybean meal is 3.4%, and the inventory percentile is 32.0% [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, zinc prices showed weak performance, influenced by the fading anti - price - cutting sentiment, and returned to the pre - anti - price - cutting sentiment trading range. In the short term, due to the fading anti - low - price competition sentiment, zinc prices will experience weak fluctuations, and overall, it is advisable to sell on rallies. The overall view is that zinc prices will mainly fluctuate [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Zinc prices were weak this week, with the Shanghai Zinc main contract closing at 22,320 yuan per ton, down 2.85%; LME zinc closed at 2,727 dollars per ton, down 4.72%. Domestic seven - location zinc ingot inventory reached 103,200 tons, still at a low level in recent years; LME zinc inventory decreased to 100,825 tons. This week, 68,700 tons of zinc concentrates arrived at the port [2][4]. 2. Industrial Performance - Nexa announced that the first phase of its Cerro Pasco integration project has completed key milestones. The second phase is progressing as planned, which is expected to extend the lifespan of two mines by over ten years and increase profit margins. The procurement and installation of the fourth tailings filter at Aripuanã are expected to be completed in the second half of 2025, and full - scale production is expected to start in the first half of 2026. In Q2 2025, the company's zinc concentrate production reached 74,000 metal tons, a 9% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 12% decrease year - on - year. In the second quarter, the total sales volume of refined zinc and zinc oxide reached 145,000 tons, a 12% increase from the previous quarter, and the total output was 139,000 tons, a 5% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 9% decrease year - on - year, in line with the annual sales guidance of 560,000 - 590,000 tons [3]. 3. Core Logic - **Supply Side**: There were no significant changes in the supply side this week. In the mining sector, zinc ore imports declined in June, but domestic zinc ore supply remained strong both year - on - year and month - on - month. In the smelting sector, the smelter's operating rate remained strong, with a strong willingness to resume production. The treatment charge (TC) continued to rise, and profit recovery was stable [4]. - **Demand Side**: The downstream operating rate mainly decreased week - on - week, affected by the off - season of consumption and the high zinc prices at the beginning of the week, showing a weak performance [4]. - **Inventory**: Affected by high zinc prices, domestic inventory increased and has now exceeded 100,000 tons, showing a short - term upward trend in a volatile manner. Meanwhile, LME zinc inventory is at a low level in recent years, providing support for the downside of zinc prices [4]. 4. Zinc Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The Shanghai Zinc main contract had a closing price of 22,320 yuan per ton, a trading volume of 105,121 lots, and an open interest of 108,084 lots. LME zinc had a closing price of 2,727 dollars per ton, with an open interest of 282,405.52 lots [4]. - **Spot Data**: The price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,300 yuan per ton, down 2.06%; the price of 1 zinc ingot was 22,230 yuan per ton, down 2.07%. There were also data on various locations' zinc ingot premiums and discounts and LME zinc premiums and discounts [15]. 5. Zinc Inventory Data - **Domestic Inventory**: Shanghai inventory was 38,000 tons, up 2.43%; Tianjin inventory was 40,100 tons, down 4.52%; seven - location inventory was 103,200 tons, down 0.48%; zinc concentrate port inventory was 263,000 tons, down 4.36%; Shanghai Zinc delivery warehouse inventory was 61,724 tons, up 3.88% [25]. - **LME Inventory**: Total LME zinc inventory was 100,825 tons, down 12.91%; registered LME zinc warrants were 57,075 tons, down 6.40% [25]. 6. Zinc Element Supply - Demand Balance - In June 2025, the supply - demand balance of zinc concentrates was - 2,000 metal tons, a 96.5% decrease year - on - year and a 103.85% decrease month - on - month; the supply - demand balance of refined zinc was 24,000 tons, a 2500.00% decrease year - on - year and a 211.11% decrease month - on - month [41]. 7. Downstream Consumption - The downstream operating rates of galvanizing, zinc oxide, and die - casting zinc alloys were 56.77% (down 2.65 percentage points), 56.13% (up 0.14 percentage points), and 48.24% (down 2.79 percentage points) respectively [44].

南华期货硅产业链周报 ——短期向下空间有限，关注供给端政策 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年08月03日 【产业表现】 【核心逻辑】 基本面看，工业硅处于落后产能出清的产业周期逻辑，供应过剩压力持续。丰水期临近，西南地区企业陆续 增加开炉，复产预期逐渐落地，库存将有进一步累库风险。而下游需求端多晶硅利润改善有望拉动工业硅需 求，但需警惕若"反内卷"措施落地后，企业采取限产等生产调整，将对工业硅需求形成压制。因此，下半 年工业硅与多晶硅的联动逻辑可划分为两个阶段： 第一阶段为整合预期主导期：多晶硅产业整合预期推升市场价格上涨，企业利润修复将带动开工率提升，进 而形成"多晶硅价格走高→利润改善→开工率回升→工业硅需求增加→工业硅价格上行"的传导链条； 第二阶段为措施落地验证期：若多晶硅整合措施实质性落地且以限产为核心手段，将直接抑制对工业硅的原 料需求，触发"多晶硅限产→工业硅需求收缩→工业硅价格承压下行"的连锁反应。 所以整体来看，两阶段的核心差异在于产业整合从"预期 ...