Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The consumer retail sales growth rate rebounded month-on-month in March, indicating strengthened expectations for consumption policies. The food and beverage index declined by 1.4% from April 21 to April 25, ranking 28th among primary sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.7 percentage points. The snack food (+4.5%), soft drinks (+2.2%), and other alcoholic beverages (+0.1%) sectors performed relatively well [3][12][14] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a decrease in the allocation of food and beverage stocks by funds, with the allocation ratio dropping from 10.6% in Q4 2024 to 9.8%, marking a new low since 2020. Active equity funds reduced their allocation to food and beverage stocks, while the allocation to liquor stocks increased slightly [3][12][14] - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized increasing income for low- and middle-income groups and boosting service consumption to enhance economic growth. This aligns with the optimistic outlook for the consumption sector. Despite pressures on the performance of liquor, condiments, and frozen food in Q1, the snack sector showed strong growth, with companies like Salted Fish and West Oat achieving significant revenue increases [4][13] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - Funds reduced their allocation to food and beverage stocks, but holdings became more concentrated, with the snack sector showing outstanding performance [12] - The food and beverage index underperformed the market, with a decline of 1.4% [14] Market Performance - The food and beverage index fell by 1.4%, ranking 28th out of 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by about 1.7 percentage points. Snack food, soft drinks, and other alcoholic beverages showed relative strength [12][14] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, with the price of whole milk powder increasing by 28.7% year-on-year, while fresh milk prices fell by 10.7% year-on-year [17][22] Liquor Industry News - Wuliangye plans to launch 17 new product series, indicating ongoing innovation in the liquor sector [43] Memorandum - Attention is drawn to the upcoming Q1 report disclosure of Kweichow Moutai on April 30 [44]

Group 1 - Public funds have adjusted their holdings in the first quarter, with the top three heavyweights being CATL, Kweichow Moutai, and Tencent Holdings, with total market values of 146.78 billion, 141.49 billion, and 84.89 billion respectively [1] - The overall market for alcoholic beverages in China is facing challenges such as intensified competition, excess capacity, and changing consumer preferences, leading to a noticeable decline in market growth and profitability [1][6] - Some funds have reduced their holdings in liquor stocks, particularly in well-known brands like Wuliangye and Yanghe, while others, such as E Fund and Huatai-PineBridge, have increased their positions in Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao [1][2] Group 2 - The latest data shows that the total market value of the liquor-related funds has changed little despite some reductions in holdings, with the total market value of the top ten holdings in the China Securities Liquor Index Fund decreasing by approximately 2.6 billion [2] - Shanxi Fenjiu has emerged as a significant highlight, with 28 funds making it their top holding, reflecting a shift in investment focus [7] - Fund managers emphasize the importance of cash flow and are looking for companies with strong business models and competitive advantages, indicating a strategic shift in investment logic [11]

证券代码：603369 证券简称：今世缘 公告编号：2025-006 江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司 关于召开 2024 年度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导 性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责 任。 重要内容提示： 投资者可于 2025 年 04 月 25 日（星期五）至 05 月 06 日（星期二）16:00 前登录上证路演中心网站首页点击"提问预征集"栏目或通过公司邮箱 jsydmb@163.com 进行提问。公司将在说明会上对投资者普遍关注的问题进 行回答。 江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）将于 2025 年 4 月 30 日发布公司 2024 年度报告，为便于广大投资者更全面深入地了解公司 2024 年度经营成果、财务状况，公司计划于 2025 年 05 月 07 日 （星期三） 09:30-11:30 举行 2024 年度业绩说明会，就投资者关心的问题进行交流。 会议召开时间：2025 年 05 月 07 日（星期三）09:30-11:30 会议召开地点：上海证券交易所上证路演中心（网址： https://roa ...

一 、库存周期的本质 ： 供需错配的动态平衡 白酒库存周期的本质是 供给刚性与需求弹性的错配 。 供给端的长周期属性 ： 高端白酒 （ 如茅台 、五粮液 ）生产需经历制曲 、发酵 、蒸馏 、陈酿等环节 ，陈酿时间可达 3-5 年 ， 导致产能释放存在明显滞后性13 。这种 " 生产 - 库存 - 销售 " 的长链条使得企业难以快速响应市场需 求变化 ，容易积累库存压力 。例如 ，泸州老窖因 2020 年技改新增 10 万吨产能 ，半成品酒库存从 2018 年的 46.96 亿元增至 2024 年的 123 亿元 。而中低端白酒生产周期较短 （ 如五粮液系列酒基 酒仅需 81 天 ），库存周转相对灵活 ，但受价格敏感型需求波动影响更大 。 长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 资悟堂 来源：雪球 " 白酒行业的库存周期是生产刚性 、需求弹性 、渠道博弈 、政策调控等多因素共同作用的结果 。当 前行业处于主动去库后期 ，预计 2025 年末逐步进入补库 ，但价格带分化 、集中度提升 、消费分层 等结构性变革将重塑竞争格局 。企业需通过品牌护城河 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][34] Core Views - In March, retail sales showed a month-on-month recovery, increasing consumer demand focus. The retail sales growth rate in March was 5.9% year-on-year, up 1.9 percentage points from January-February, indicating a sustained recovery in consumption driven by previous policy stimuli. Looking ahead, the importance of domestic demand is expected to rise amid external demand disturbances, with consumption policies likely to be further enhanced to boost demand recovery [5][6] - The food and beverage index increased by 1.47% this week, with notable stock performances from Anji Food (+50.00%), Gui Faxiang (+14.58%), and Zuming Shares (+12.00%). The report emphasizes the resilience of essential consumer goods, predicting a sustained increase in attention towards these products due to improving consumer confidence and income [5][11] Summary by Sections Alcohol Industry - The high-end liquor segment remains strong, with recommendations for Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao. The next tier of liquor, represented by Shanxi Fenjiu, is also recommended as it continues to expand nationally. For real estate liquor, companies like Yingjia Gongjiu and Jiansiyuan are highlighted [5][6] - Kweichow Moutai is projected to achieve a revenue of 170.6 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. The company aims for a revenue growth of around 9% in 2025 [6][33] - Wuliangye's revenue for Q3 2024 is expected to be 173 billion yuan, with a net profit of 59 billion yuan, reflecting a stable shareholder return strategy [6][33] Food Industry - The food index saw a rise of 1.47% this week, with significant gains in essential consumer goods. The report suggests that the demand for essential goods will continue to grow, supported by policies aimed at boosting consumption and improving household income [5][11] - Anji Food reported a revenue of 110.77 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.84%. The company is positioned well in the frozen food market, despite facing some pressure from the macroeconomic environment [8][33] - Dongpeng Beverage's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 125.58 billion yuan, a 45.34% increase year-on-year, indicating strong growth in the functional beverage sector [8][33] Key Company Announcements - Kweichow Moutai is recruiting operators for its products on major platforms, aiming to expand its market presence [16] - Jinhuijiu reported a revenue of 11.1 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the liquor industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the coming months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the pricing floor is solid, and the value proposition remains attractive for investors. Despite short-term pressures, the market is expected to stabilize, with a clear support level at 2000 yuan for major brands like Moutai [6][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of balancing volume and price in the second quarter, with a focus on improving cash flow for distributors and maintaining stable pricing [6]. Industry Overview - The liquor industry consists of 20 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 338.49 billion yuan [3]. - Recent performance metrics show a 4.7% decline over the past month and a 6.3% decline over the past year, indicating some volatility in the market [4]. Company-Specific Analysis - Moutai's recent price has dropped to around 2100 yuan, reflecting a 20 yuan decrease from the previous week and a 120 yuan decrease from the previous month. This decline is attributed to increased supply and seasonal demand fluctuations [6]. - The report notes that Moutai is actively implementing measures to stabilize prices, including adjusting supply and enhancing market supervision to prevent price disruptions [6]. - Other key players like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao are also experiencing slight price adjustments, with Wuliangye's price at approximately 925 yuan [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on leading companies such as Moutai and Wuliangye for short-term gains, while also recommending secondary brands like Fenjiu and Gujing for their growth potential [6][13]. - The anticipated dividend yield for major liquor companies is around 4%, making them attractive for long-term investors [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting the white wine sector as it is expected to clear and stabilize, with gradual improvements in the mass market [1]. Core Insights - The white wine sector is currently in a clearing and bottoming phase, with expectations for marginal improvement in the second half of the year. The industry has seen risks transition from off-balance sheet channels to on-balance sheet for most listed companies, leading to a slight slowdown in payment and delivery progress in Q1. However, leading companies have largely completed their initial targets for the year [4][9]. - In the mass market, beer shows signs of marginal improvement, with standout performance in the snack category, particularly for konjac products. The dairy sector is expected to rebound in Q2 after a period of adjustment [19][25]. Summary by Sections White Wine Sector - The white wine sector is in a clearing and bottoming phase, with expectations for improvement in the second half of the year. Q1 saw a slowdown in payment and delivery, but leading companies have met their initial targets [4][9]. - High-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are expected to see revenue and profit growth of approximately 9% and 10%, and 4% and 3% respectively in Q1 [10][12]. - The mid-range segment is experiencing varied performance, with brands like Fenjiu and Gujing showing growth, while others like Yanghe are facing challenges [10][12]. Mass Market - The beer sector is showing signs of recovery, with leading brands like Qingdao and Yanjing achieving revenue growth of 4% and 6% respectively in Q1 [26][29]. - The snack segment, particularly konjac products, is performing well, with brands like Salted and Wei Long seeing significant growth [19][25]. - The dairy sector is expected to improve as inventory levels stabilize, with companies like Yili and Mengniu showing resilience [25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests bottom-fishing in the white wine sector, with a focus on brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu, while also recommending attention to the mass market for potential turning points in beer and dairy [5][19].

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the focus on domestic demand due to tariff events, with food and beverage companies primarily targeting the domestic market, leading to better stock performance. It outlines four main investment themes centered on domestic circulation, highlighting short-term catalysts for stock prices, medium to long-term growth prospects, and high dividend yield assets [3][4][19] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the food and beverage sector is 18005.21, with a 52-week high of 20128.95 and a low of 14118.56 [1] Investment Highlights - Short-term catalysts include the gradual digestion of pressure from snack quarterly reports and the arrival of buying opportunities, with beer entering its peak season and cost improvements continuing. Companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Chengde Lulux are highlighted for their strong performance and attractive valuations [3] - Medium to long-term prospects are positive for companies like Angel Yeast, which is expected to benefit from strong overseas demand and cost improvements, and dairy companies like Yili and New Dairy, which are anticipated to recover profitability due to improved milk prices and demand from birth subsidy policies [3] - High dividend yield assets include brands like Master Kong (5.73%), Uni-President (5.56%), and Chengde Lulux (4.92%) [3] Weekly Performance Review - The food and beverage sector performed well, with the industry index showing a weekly increase of +0.20%, ranking 4th among 30 sectors, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.07%. The current dynamic PE ratio is 22.15, which is considered low historically [7][32] Company-Specific Forecasts - Guizhou Moutai is expected to see a revenue growth of 7% and a net profit growth of 8% in Q1 2025, with a focus on maintaining price stability [20] - Yili's revenue is projected to remain flat with a significant drop in net profit due to previous asset transfers, while New Dairy is expected to see a profit increase of 18-20% [22][30] - Dongpeng Beverage is forecasted to achieve a revenue growth of 30% and a net profit growth of 36% in Q1 2025, driven by strong demand for its products [23][30] Market Trends - The report notes a trend towards rational growth in the liquor sector, with major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye maintaining competitive valuations and dividend yields, indicating resilience and risk management capabilities [19][30]

五粮液：五粮液计划6个月内增持5-10亿元。集团公司计划自公告之日起6个月内通过深圳证券交易所交 易系统增持公司股票，拟增持金额不低于5亿元，不超过10亿元。截至公告日，五粮液集团公司持有公 司股份7.95亿股，占公司总股本的20.49%。在本次公告前的12个月内，五粮液集团公司累计增持公司股 份340.67万股，占公司总股本的0.09%，增持金额为人民币5亿元。 投资建议 招商证券发布研报称，本周受贸易摩擦影响板块震荡。从Q1情况来看，高端白酒需求相对稳定，次高 端酒企表现分化，整体边际改善。食品板块需求企稳，调味品、乳制品、啤酒等板块轻装上阵全年业绩 改善确定性更高，而零食、饮料赛道仍然延续高景气。当前茅台、五粮液（000858）纷纷出台回购方 案，龙头底线价值清晰，白酒位置进可攻退可守，食品把握趋势向上及高景气赛道。内需有望发力背景 下，该行重申板块配置价值。 招商证券主要观点如下： 核心公司跟踪：重啤维持高位分红，中炬全年稳健收官 重庆啤酒（600132）：分红维持高位，结构表现依旧承压。公司24年高档酒结构表现仍然承压，带动吨 价同比下滑，税收政策及诉讼费用影响盈利，收入/归母净利润同比-1.2%/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower but rose throughout the day, with the CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index reported at 24,673.68 points [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index has increased by 2.84% over the past month, 7.60% over the past three months, and 1.18% year-to-date [2] - The index is designed to reflect the overall performance of different industry companies within the CSI 300, categorized into 11 primary industries, 35 secondary industries, over 90 tertiary industries, and more than 200 quaternary industries [2] Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten weights in the CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index are: Kweichow Moutai (50.1%), Wuliangye (13.31%), Yili (9.73%), Shanxi Fenjiu (5.58%), Luzhou Laojiao (5.03%), Haitian Flavoring (3.63%), Dongpeng Beverage (2.75%), Yanghe (2.34%), Jinshiyuan (2.07%), and Gujing Gongjiu (1.51%) [2] - The market share of the CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index is composed of 75.32% from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and 24.68% from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [2] Group 3: Industry Breakdown - The industry composition of the CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index includes: Baijiu (79.94%), Dairy Products (9.73%), Condiments and Cooking Oils (4.63%), Soft Drinks (2.75%), Beer (1.47%), and Meat Products (1.47%) [3] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [3] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with temporary adjustments made in response to changes in the CSI 300 Index samples [3]