【导读】车企在激烈厮杀中告别2025，未来竞争更残酷 中国基金报记者 邱德坤 "我觉得每一家车企都是战战兢兢的。"近日，小鹏汽车董事长兼CEO何小鹏向中国基金报等媒体表示， 中国汽车市场变化太快，一年前很难想到现在的情况，如今也很难想象一年后的局面。 对比2024年，2025年车企竞争格局再次骤变：造车新势力"一哥"从理想汽车变为零跑汽车，而国内车 企"一哥"比亚迪正遭遇上汽集团、吉利汽车等车企快速追赶。 车企竞争格局变化的背后，是国内汽车市场的竞争逻辑出现显著变化。2025年以"限时一口价"为代表的 价格战，从上半年愈演愈烈到下半年戛然而止。随后车企集体表态"反内卷"，要求开启"价值战"。 国内新能源汽车购置税补贴退坡将成为车企竞争更为残酷的新因素。岚图汽车董事长、党委书记卢放表 示："一旦走到这个时刻，燃油车和新能源汽车在某种程度上会迎来终极对决。" 车企"一哥"轮流坐庄？ 每个领域的"一哥"都会受到各方关注，但国内车企"一哥"的宝座在2025年难言稳固。 2025年上半年，比亚迪险守国内车企"一哥"宝座，汽车业务营业收入仅比上汽集团多81.70亿元。此 前，上汽集团常年稳坐国内车企"一哥"宝座，但202 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on themes of intelligentization and overseas expansion, indicating a positive outlook for companies like BYD and Geely Auto in the export sector, and Li Auto, Xpeng Motors, and others in the intelligentization and robotics sectors [1][18]. Core Insights - Short-term domestic demand is low, with retail sales of passenger vehicles declining year-on-year in November, while exports are expected to be a long-term theme with significant growth potential [1][12]. - The intelligentization and robotics sectors are accelerating, with advancements in autonomous driving and smart cockpit technologies becoming mainstream [15][16]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on companies with strong export growth and those benefiting from intelligentization trends [1][18]. Summary by Sections Weekly Perspective - Domestic demand is currently weak, with November retail sales of passenger vehicles down 15.8% year-on-year. However, exports have shown strong growth, with a 50% increase in November compared to the previous year [1][11][12]. Industry Data Tracking - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.28%, while the automotive index increased by 0.10%. Notable stock performances included Zhejiang Shibao (+44.1%) and Haon Automotive (+28.4%) [2][19]. - In November, wholesale passenger vehicle sales reached 2.991 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, while new energy vehicle (NEV) sales rose by 17.6% [4][34]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes significant developments in the intelligentization of vehicles, with over 60% penetration of L2 and above autonomous driving systems in the market. The trend towards smart cockpits is also highlighted [15][16]. - Robotics technology is advancing rapidly, with new products being launched by domestic manufacturers and increased governmental focus on robotics technology in the U.S. [16][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive sector, suggesting that the sector is expected to bottom out and presents a good opportunity for early investment in the upcoming year [3]. Core Insights - Traditional vehicle stocks continue to show weak performance, which is anticipated as the market awaits clarity on 1Q policies and retail trends. The report suggests that the current moment is a favorable time for positioning [3]. - The report highlights significant interest in the intelligent driving sector, particularly with L3 level autonomous driving vehicles, which are expected to gain traction in 2026 due to potential policy and standard implementations [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the automotive sector's recovery, particularly focusing on companies like Geely and JAC, which are expected to benefit from high-end product strategies and international expansion [5]. Data Tracking - In early December, the discount rate for vehicles decreased slightly, with an average discount amount of 22,156 yuan, down 1,238 yuan from the previous month. The discount rate was reported at 9.7%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month [5]. - In October, wholesale vehicle sales reached 2.96 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% and a month-on-month increase of 3.6%. However, retail sales fell to 2.09 million units, down 9.2% year-on-year and 6.4% month-on-month [5]. - In November, BYD's delivery volume was 480,186 units, showing a significant month-on-month increase of 8.7%, while traditional automaker Geely's sales reached 310,000 units, up 24.0% year-on-year [6][26]. Industry News - On December 15, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology approved two L3 level autonomous driving vehicle models from Changan Automobile and BAIC Blue Valley [9][32]. - The report notes that the automotive sector's performance index increased by 0.09% this week, ranking 9th out of 29 sectors [10]. - The report mentions that the retail market for narrow passenger vehicles is expected to reach approximately 2.3 million units in December, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 3.4% but a year-on-year decline of 12.7% [34].

Group 1 - CATL has launched the world's first humanoid robot for large-scale production of energy storage battery PACK, achieving a connection success rate of over 99% [3] - Ganfeng Lithium has signed a project agreement for a 10GWh zero-carbon industry base in Jiangxi, which will include lithium battery production lines and a distributed photovoltaic power generation system [4] - Envision AESC has officially started production at its Sunderland battery plant in the UK, with an initial capacity of 15.8GWh, enough to supply batteries for over 200,000 electric vehicles annually [5] Group 2 - Guokai Energy has launched a smart manufacturing base for energy storage batteries in Anqing, Anhui, with a planned capacity of 10GWh and an expected annual output value exceeding 5 billion yuan [7] - Pylontech has commenced the second phase of its 10GWh lithium battery R&D and manufacturing base in Hefei, aiming to enhance production capacity and meet market demand [8] - Xinnengda plans to invest 2 billion yuan in a mobile energy storage vehicle production line and related projects in Jiangxi [9] Group 3 - A 27GWh battery cell production project has been signed in Feicheng, Shandong, with a total investment of 5.5 billion yuan, expected to generate an annual output value exceeding 8 billion yuan [10] - A new generation lithium battery project with a capacity of 60GWh has been established in Hunan, capable of meeting the battery needs of approximately 1 million new energy vehicles [11] - Volkswagen's PowerCo has launched its first battery cell production facility in Germany, with a target annual capacity of 20GWh to support around 250,000 electric vehicles [12] Group 4 - Dafu Technology plans to sell a 49% stake in Dasheng Graphite for a minimum price of 206 million yuan [14] - Yongtai Technology has reported a production capacity of 18,000 tons per year for solid-state lithium hexafluorophosphate [15] - Yuntai Holdings has established a complete supply chain for iron phosphate with an annual capacity of 50,000 tons [19] Group 5 - A 2,000-ton silicon-carbon anode material project has been signed in Sichuan, with a total investment of 650 million yuan, expected to achieve an annual output value of about 800 million yuan [20] - Huayou Cobalt has signed a binding memorandum to supply 79,600 tons of ternary precursor products to an international client [18] - Tesla plans to start battery production in Germany by 2027, with a production capacity of up to 8GWh [30] Group 6 - BYD has achieved a significant milestone with the production of its 15 millionth new energy vehicle [31] - CATL and Lantu Motors have signed a 10-year cooperation agreement to enhance collaboration in technology application and product supply [33] - Chery has reported a monthly sales figure of 111,577 units in December, marking a 54% year-on-year growth and positioning itself among the top three in the industry [34]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the green manufacturing sector is set to receive significant support from government policies aimed at promoting low-carbon development in the manufacturing industry [1] - The State Council has approved the "Green Low-Carbon Development Action Plan for Manufacturing Industry (2025-2027)", emphasizing the need for green technology innovation and the promotion of advanced green technologies [1] - By 2024, the number of national-level green factories in China is expected to reach 6,430, accounting for approximately 20% of the total output value of the manufacturing industry, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous year [1] Group 2 - In the A-share manufacturing sector, 12 stocks have been identified as potential green manufacturing stocks based on specific criteria, including high ESG ratings and significant expected revenue growth [2] - BYD has received the highest number of positive ratings from institutions, with 48 firms rating it positively, and it has established 6 national-level green factories [2] - The company reported a net profit of 9.155 billion yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 100.38%, and sold 1.3809 million new energy vehicles in the first four months of 2025, a growth of 46.98% [2] Group 3 - Among the identified potential stocks, BGI Genomics, China National Materials, and Aiko Solar have seen significant net purchases from institutional investors, each exceeding 150 million yuan [3] - BGI Genomics has received a net purchase amount of 267 million yuan, with its stock price increasing by 57.28% this year [4] - Aiko Solar has been continuously favored by institutional investors, with net purchases of 21.3187 million yuan in 2024 and 158 million yuan in 2025 [5]

Core Insights - The performance of power batteries in November was weak, with both exports and domestic sales underwhelming, leading to a significant drop in expected growth for the year-end new energy vehicle installations [1] - The demand for batteries is heavily reliant on high subsidies for heavy-duty electric trucks, with expectations of a sharp decline in pure electric heavy truck installations early next year [1] - The production of power and other batteries in China reached 176 GWh in November, a year-on-year increase of 53%, with a cumulative production of 1469 GWh from January to November, reflecting a 46% year-on-year growth [3][4] Battery Production and Installation - In November 2025, the installation rate of power batteries reached 53%, with ternary batteries at 50% and lithium iron phosphate batteries at 54%, indicating a peak in battery installation activity for the year [4][5] - The cumulative production of power batteries in 2025 is projected to be 672 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 42% [9][10] - The installation of new energy vehicles in November 2025 was 1.72 million units, a 19% increase year-on-year, with pure electric passenger vehicles showing a 30% increase [13] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape of battery manufacturers is dominated by CATL and BYD, which together hold a market share of approximately 65% as of 2025, while other companies have over 30% market space available [2][19] - The energy density of battery models with over 160 Wh/kg has decreased to 10% in Q4 2025, down from 13% in 2024, primarily due to the substitution of ternary batteries by lithium iron phosphate batteries [19] - The demand for batteries in the passenger vehicle segment remains strong, with pure electric passenger vehicle battery demand expected to grow by 34% in 2025, while plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles are projected to grow by 19% [9][10] Future Outlook - The battery production is expected to remain high in 2025, with a low starting point for installations, indicating a potential mismatch between production and demand [5] - The trend of electric vehicle manufacturers increasingly controlling battery production and supply chains is anticipated to strengthen, reflecting a shift towards a "vehicle-centric" model in the industry [16]

近日，比亚迪成功斩获美洲市场巴西圣保罗公共交通运营商194台纯电动大巴订单。这是继 亚太新加坡210台、欧洲比利时268台两项大巴订单后，比亚迪再次获得海外客户高度认 可，为推动全球城市绿色交通低碳转型持续加码。 自2015年进入巴西，比亚迪大巴凭借领先技术与本地化深耕，已累计获得近千台订单，目 前已有超200台运营在巴西多个城市的大街小巷，以16%市占率位列当地电动大巴进口品 牌第一；并凭借其出色的稳定运营、高续航能力和良好适应性，为当地居民带来低碳、绿 色、便捷的公共出行。 这次新订单的获得，不仅体现了比亚迪大巴产品对当地市场需求的精准契合，和客户对技术 实力的再次肯定，也进一步巩固了比亚迪在拉美电动公交市场的引领地位。 巴西总统卢拉与比亚迪董事长兼总裁王传福合影 近年来，巴西多个城市积极推进公交能源转型。巴西总统卢拉曾多次在公开场合强调绿色发 展的重要性，并对比亚迪在新能源领域的创新能力与市场贡献表示高度赞赏。 比亚迪大巴在巴西圣保罗 比亚迪将持续响应巴西的清洁能源战略，以优质产品、高效服务、整体性解决方案，助力其 实现绿色减碳目标，共同推动拉美乃至全球的城市公交电动化进程！ ● 跨越拐点：华为靠什么破 ...

Core Insights - Fosun and BYD have established a global long-term strategic partnership to create a "mobility + vacation" ecosystem, leveraging their strengths in green travel, smart manufacturing, tourism, and family consumption [1][2] - The collaboration aims to enhance user experience and expand market opportunities through product innovation and global expansion [2] Group 1: Strategic Collaboration - The partnership will focus on integrating travel and vacation experiences, utilizing BYD's flagship vehicle models across various Fosun destinations [1] - Customized vacation routes will be developed based on local natural and cultural resources, enhancing the overall travel experience [1] Group 2: Market Expansion and User Experience - Both companies will empower each other in international operations and market expansion, aiming for a broader market reach [2] - The collaboration is expected to improve the quality of user experiences during travel and lead to breakthroughs in membership operations and product innovation [2]

Summary of BYD's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: BYD Company Limited - **Industry**: Automotive Manufacturing, specifically Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Battery Production Key Points 1. Overseas Expansion and Battery Sales - BYD emphasizes overseas expansion and external battery sales as key growth drivers for 2026, despite investor concerns about domestic market share loss [3][13] - The management targets 1.6 million overseas EV sales in 2026, contributing an estimated net profit increase of 15 billion RMB compared to 2025 [4][11] 2. Sales and Production Goals - BYD aims to achieve 1.6 million overseas EV sales in 2026, exceeding market expectations of 1.4 million, representing a growth of 700,000 units from 2025 [4][11] - New production capacities in Brazil and Hungary are expected to add 300,000 units by H2 2026 [4][18] 3. Battery Business Growth - BYD's external battery sales are projected to account for one-third of its 300 GWh battery production in 2025, up from one-fifth in 2024 [5][12] - The company has secured significant ESS (Energy Storage System) projects, including a 12.5 GWh project in Saudi Arabia [5][36] 4. Financial Performance and Valuation - The target price for BYD shares has been adjusted from 147 RMB to 125 RMB due to increased domestic competition, with a current P/E ratio of 17 times the expected earnings for 2026 [6][61] - BYD's current stock price reflects a 6x EV/EBITDA for 2026, which is considered undervalued compared to historical ranges for competitors like Toyota [6][61] 5. Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for overseas sales is significantly higher than domestic sales, with overseas sales contributing a gross profit margin of 27.3% compared to 17.7% domestically [33][34] - The estimated net profit contributions from overseas sales are projected at 10 billion RMB for 500,000 units and 15 billion RMB for 700,000 units in 2026 [4][11] 6. Market Position and Consumer Recognition - BYD has seen a rise in consumer recognition, becoming the fourth most considered EV brand globally, driven by strong performance in markets outside China [24][25] - The company plans to expand its retail presence in Europe, aiming for 1,000 stores by the end of 2025 and 2,000 by the end of 2026 [4][31] 7. Risks and Challenges - Investor concerns regarding geopolitical tensions, trade protectionism, and increasing competition may impact BYD's overseas expansion sustainability [19][55] - The stock has seen a decline of 20% since August 2025 due to lowered profit expectations and competitive pressures [55] 8. Future Outlook - BYD's management remains optimistic about achieving its sales targets, supported by local production, expanded retail channels, and increasing consumer acceptance [11][17] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for ESS and external battery sales, which are expected to enhance profitability [12][47] Additional Insights - BYD's battery production capacity is approximately half that of CATL, yet its market valuation is significantly lower, indicating potential undervaluation of its battery business [38][40] - The company has established partnerships with various automakers for battery supply, indicating a shift towards becoming a third-party battery supplier [40][41]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Electric Vehicles (EV) in China - **Current Trends**: EV demand shows resilience, with expectations of continued support for consumption into 2026, driven by government policies and market dynamics [2][9] Core Insights - **EV Market Performance**: - In November, the China passenger car market recorded sales of 2.22 million units, an 8% year-over-year decline, and a 1% month-over-month decrease [2] - EV sales increased by 4% year-over-year and 3% month-over-month, achieving a penetration rate of 59.3% [2][34] - Anticipated growth in EV demand through December due to year-end promotions and potential frontloading sales ahead of tax exemption reductions [2] - **Robotaxi Commercialization**: - Companies like Pony and WeRide plan to expand their robotaxi fleets from approximately 1,000 to 3,000 by the end of next year, with some areas achieving breakeven unit economics [3] - XPEV is set to launch three robotaxi models in 2026, indicating a clear acceleration in commercialization [3] - **Battery Market Dynamics**: - The battery trading market is currently experiencing volatility, particularly affecting smaller firms and upstream battery materials [4] - The battery segment is expected to benefit from an upcycle, with companies like CATL showing growth visibility [5] Investment Recommendations - **Preferred OEMs**: - Companies with strong product pipelines such as BYD A/H, Geely, and Leapmotor are favored due to expected policy support for domestic consumption [5][9] - **Battery Suppliers**: - CATL is highlighted for its resilience and growth potential, especially in the face of demand volatility expected in early 2026 [5] - **Autonomous Driving Enablers**: - XPeng and Horizon Robotics are well-positioned to capture growth in autonomous driving, with Joyson noted for its overseas exposure and robotics optionality [5] Additional Insights - **Market Share Trends**: - The top 10 brands in the China passenger car market captured 72% of the market share in the first ten months of 2025, indicating a competitive landscape with 144 brands vying for the remaining share [13][15] - **EV Market Share**: - The top 10 EV makers accounted for 75% of the market share in November 2025, with 50 brands competing for the remaining 25% [18] - **Discount Levels**: - The discount level for EVs slightly increased to 10.1% in November 2025, while ICE vehicles remained stable at 24.0% [26][28] - **Inventory Levels**: - The inventory indicator rose to 1.57 in November 2025, suggesting potential oversupply concerns [38] - **Future Projections**: - New model launches are expected to peak in the third quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of 2026, with EVs projected to account for 91% of new models [42] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the electric vehicle industry in China, market dynamics, investment recommendations, and additional insights that may be relevant for stakeholders.