Group 1: Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Geely Automobile, Xpeng Motors, Zoomlion, Sany Heavy Industry, Atour Group, Luckin Coffee, and Proya, all rated as "Buy" with target price increases ranging from 12% to 37%[5] - The average market capitalization of the recommended stocks is approximately $25 billion for Geely Automobile and $19.7 billion for Xpeng Motors[5] - The average daily trading volume for these stocks varies, with Geely Automobile at $200.2 million and Xpeng Motors at $248.2 million[5] Group 2: Financial Metrics - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for FY24A shows Geely Automobile at 10.90, while Xpeng Motors is not available (N/A)[5] - Return on equity (ROE) for FY24A is highest for Atour Group at 47.5%, while Xpeng Motors is N/A[5] - Dividend yield for FY24A is 1.7% for Geely Automobile and 5.4% for Xpeng Motors[5] Group 3: Performance Review - The basket of 22 stocks listed in the previous report had an average return of 6.0%, compared to the MSCI China Index return of 8.1%[9] - Out of the 22 stocks, 6 outperformed the benchmark index[9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights strong growth in the number of coffee and Western fast-food outlets, while the tea beverage segment is experiencing increasing differentiation [2] - The net opening numbers for various brands indicate a competitive landscape, with some brands expanding rapidly while others are contracting [3][4] Summary by Sections Net Opening Trends - In the first four months of 2025, the net opening numbers show significant growth for brands like KFC (+777), McDonald's (+52), and Luckin Coffee (+1474), while brands like Huaiyang and others are seeing declines [6][10] - The tea beverage segment shows mixed results, with brands like Mixue Ice Cream and Tea (+3123) expanding, while others like Heytea and Nayuki are facing contractions [8] Average Transaction Price Trends - The average transaction prices for major fast-food brands have shown a downward trend, with KFC and McDonald's experiencing declines of -3.9% and -2.1% respectively in recent months [7] - In the tea beverage sector, brands like Mixue and Heytea are also facing pressure on average transaction prices, with some brands showing significant declines [14] Coffee and Hot Pot Segment - The coffee segment is witnessing strong growth, with brands like Luckin Coffee and Manner showing net opening increases of 7% and 9% respectively [10] - The hot pot segment, however, is facing challenges, with brands like Haidilao and others showing minimal growth or declines in net openings [11] Other Food Categories - The report indicates a noticeable contraction in the number of outlets for categories like pickled fish and snacks, with brands like Tai Er and Yu Ni Zai Yi Qi showing negative net openings [13] - Average transaction prices in these categories are also under pressure, reflecting broader challenges in consumer spending [14]

Core Viewpoint - Luckin Coffee collaborates with the 9th China Chengdu International Intangible Cultural Heritage Festival, launching products that integrate traditional cultural elements and techniques [1][2] Group 1: Collaboration and Product Launch - Luckin Coffee is the official partner of the 9th China Chengdu International Intangible Cultural Heritage Festival, introducing co-branded products such as "Light Milk Tea · Fresh Brewed Light Gardenia" [1] - The collaboration features packaging and merchandise that incorporate elements from Sichuan's intangible cultural heritage, including Shu Brocade, Shu Embroidery, Chengdu Silver Flower Wire, Chengdu Lacquer Art, and Tibetan Weaving [1][2] - A variety of themed peripheral products will be launched, including collectible albums, blind bag cards, and metal badges, to narrate the story of intangible cultural heritage [2] Group 2: Engagement with Cultural Heritage - Luckin Coffee has obtained authorization from multiple intangible cultural heritage inheritors, allowing consumers to scan QR codes on packaging to learn more about the heritage techniques and the artisans behind them [2] - Notable inheritors include Hu Guangjun, a representative inheritor of the national intangible cultural heritage Shu Brocade weaving technique, and Yang Huazhen, a representative inheritor of Tibetan weaving and embroidery [2]

Core Insights - The ongoing subsidy war among food delivery platforms is driving coffee prices to new lows, benefiting consumer access to fresh coffee but creating operational challenges for coffee shop employees [1][10] - Luckin Coffee is experiencing significant operational strain due to high demand from the subsidy war, leading to increased workloads for staff and concerns about employee retention [2][6][11] - The company is facing a decline in same-store sales and profitability, attributed to competitive pricing pressures and rising operational costs [10][11] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The subsidy war has led to promotional offers such as "2 yuan for Luckin coffee," resulting in increased consumer purchases and brand penetration in the coffee market [1] - Competitors like Kudi Coffee are aggressively expanding, with Kudi announcing a continuation of its subsidy policy until the end of 2028, further intensifying the competitive landscape [10][11] Group 2: Operational Challenges - Employees report overwhelming workloads, with some making up to 300 cups of coffee in a single morning, leading to physical strain and dissatisfaction with working conditions [2][7] - The introduction of new products and high-frequency launches has increased operational complexity, causing frustration among staff who feel overburdened [3][4][5] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Luckin Coffee is shifting its strategy to focus on market share expansion, with a significant increase in store openings, adding 1,757 new stores in a single quarter [10] - The company is implementing cost-cutting measures, including reducing discounts and optimizing labor costs through AI scheduling systems, in response to rising operational expenses [11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights strong growth in the number of coffee and Western fast-food outlets, while the tea beverage sector is experiencing increasing differentiation [2][3] - The net opening numbers for various brands indicate a competitive landscape, with some brands expanding rapidly while others are contracting [4][8] Summary by Sections Net Opening Trends - In the first four months of 2025, the net opening numbers for various sectors are as follows: - Coffee: 1,921 net openings, a 9% increase - Western fast food: 585 net openings, a 5% increase - Tea: -359 net openings, a 7% decrease [3][4] Customer Price Trends - Customer price trends for major brands show varying performance: - KFC: -1.6% in August 2023, worsening to -3.9% by December 2024 - McDonald's: -1.1% in August 2023, worsening to -0.1% by December 2024 - Starbucks: -1.1% in August 2023, worsening to -2.3% by December 2024 [7][12] Coffee and Hot Pot Sector - The coffee sector shows strong growth with notable net openings: - Luckin Coffee: 1,474 net openings, a 7% increase - Starbucks: 49 net openings, a 1% increase [10] - The hot pot sector shows mixed results with some brands experiencing declines in net openings [11] Tea Sector - The tea sector is characterized by a rapid expansion of certain brands like Mixue Ice Cream and Tea, which saw 3,123 net openings, a 9% increase, while others like Heytea and Nayuki are facing challenges with negative net openings [8][9] Other Food Categories - The report indicates a contraction in the number of outlets for categories like pickled fish and snacks, with brands like Tai Er and Yu Ni Zai Yi Qi showing negative net openings [13][14]

Macro Commentary - The US economy shows signs of slowing down, with significant declines in retail and manufacturing output due to tariff impacts, particularly affecting durable goods like automobiles and electronics [2] - Despite the slowdown, unemployment claims remain stable, indicating that the service sector is less affected, and employment in this sector remains robust [2] - Inflation is expected to rebound temporarily from May to August, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain interest rates until September, when a potential rate cut may occur [2] Industry Commentary - The Chinese pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a strong trend in innovative drug exports, with several significant business development transactions occurring despite recent tariff tensions [5][6] - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has risen by 14.9% since early 2025, although it has underperformed compared to the broader MSCI China Index [5] - The US innovative drug prices are unlikely to decrease in the short term due to recent executive orders, but long-term pressures on healthcare spending are anticipated [7] Company Initiation - The report covers Angelalign Technology (6699 HK), a leading provider of invisible orthodontic solutions in China, which has maintained a market share of 42% in the domestic market [9][10] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.8% from 2019 to 2024, with a projected CAGR of 18.0% from 2024 to 2027 [9] - Angelalign is expanding internationally, with a goal to cover over 50 countries and achieve significant revenue growth from overseas markets, which is expected to account for 30% of total revenue by 2024 [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on certain sectors, particularly focusing on undervalued stocks and sectors that have shown resilience despite market fluctuations [1][11]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring quarterly changes in overseas assets, particularly in light of the ongoing US-China trade negotiations and the impact of tariffs on Chinese assets [1][11]. - It suggests that the difficulty in identifying undervalued stocks is increasing as the declines in overseas Chinese assets are being filled [1][11]. - The report highlights specific sectors and companies to watch, including Chinese concept stocks in the US, internet assets in Hong Kong, and consumer goods companies preparing for IPOs [1][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Current Perspectives - The report stresses the need to focus on quarterly changes in overseas assets and the implications of US-China tariff negotiations [1][11]. 2. Industry Tracking 2.1 Consumer & Internet - **Education**: The Chinese education index rose by 2.80%, outperforming major indices, with notable gains from companies like Gaotu and Youdao [10][21]. - **Luxury Goods**: The report notes mixed performance among luxury goods companies, with Richemont showing resilience in high-end jewelry despite macroeconomic fluctuations [24][28]. - **Coffee & Beverage**: The coffee and tea segment remains a key focus for delivery platforms, benefiting from subsidies [11][30]. - **E-commerce**: JD and Alibaba reported strong earnings, with JD's retail business performing particularly well [11][40]. 2.2 Platforms & Technology - **Streaming Platforms**: Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music reported strong earnings, with Tencent Music's revenue exceeding expectations [41][46]. - **Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers**: The global cryptocurrency market saw a slight increase, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices rising [48][49]. 2.3 Media - The report highlights the recent changes in regulations regarding major asset restructuring, which may accelerate the pace of mergers and acquisitions in the media sector [11][28].

Group 1 - The first Yunnan Gems of Coffee CoE Pilot competition successfully concluded on May 16, 2025, with 19 winning coffee beans selected from 144 participating teams, and the top 10 beans auctioned to global buyers, with 100% of the proceeds benefiting local coffee farmers [1] - The CoE competition is recognized as the "Olympics of coffee bean competitions," marking a significant opportunity for Yunnan coffee to enter an international evaluation system for the first time [1] - Luckin Coffee, as the strategic partner of the event, demonstrates its commitment to promoting Yunnan's specialty coffee on the international stage [1] Group 2 - Luckin Coffee has established a comprehensive supply chain in Yunnan, contributing to the region's coffee production, which accounts for over 98% of China's coffee output [2] - In 2024, Yunnan's coffee exports reached 32,500 tons, a 358% increase year-on-year, with exports to 29 countries and regions [2] - Luckin Coffee's processing plant in Baoshan, Yunnan, began trial operations in March 2024, utilizing advanced processing lines to enhance the quality supply chain [2] Group 3 - By 2024, the specialty coffee rate in Yunnan increased from 8% in 2021 to 31.6%, and the deep processing rate rose from 20% to 80%, showcasing the improvement in quality and processing [3] - The strategic support for the CoE pilot competition reflects Luckin Coffee's strong focus on the development of Yunnan's specialty coffee and its role as a bridge to international markets [3]

Group 1: Luckin Coffee - Luckin Coffee plans to establish over 30 Brazilian coffee-themed stores nationwide and a Brazilian coffee museum as part of the "Luckin Brazilian Coffee Culture Festival 2.0" [1] - The company will collaborate with Brazilian entities to launch a "Support Program for Small and Medium Coffee Farmers," providing sustainable farming knowledge and technology [1] - CEO Guo Jinyi expressed the aim to promote Brazilian culture and enhance cooperation between China and Brazil in the coffee industry [1] Group 2: RUU Coffee - RUU Coffee, a brand under Lingji, opened franchise opportunities in February 2023, initially in Changsha and Shanghai, with an estimated investment of around 340,000 yuan [2] - The brand operates small stores focusing on takeout and delivery, with coffee prices ranging from 10 to 30 yuan [2] - RUU requires potential franchisees to first operate a Lingji store before upgrading to a dual-brand store, with initial investments between 150,000 to 200,000 yuan [2] Group 3: Starbucks - Starbucks has launched two new ready-to-drink tea coffee products: Jasmine Latte and Tieguanyin Oolong Latte, marking its entry into the tea coffee market [3] - The Jasmine Latte uses premium jasmine tea from Guangxi, while the Tieguanyin Oolong Latte features high-quality Tieguanyin from Anxi [3] - The new products are priced at 59.9 yuan for a pack of six 270ml bottles [3] Group 4: CoCo Milk Tea - CoCo Milk Tea faced operational challenges due to a surge in orders from JD's subsidy program, with some stores experiencing overwhelming demand [4] - During the subsidy period, prices for CoCo drinks dropped to as low as 1.9 yuan, leading to a significant increase in order volume [4] - The influx of orders caused equipment failures and shortages of raw materials, forcing some locations to temporarily suspend delivery services [4] Group 5: Pu'er Coffee - Pu'er Coffee has been recognized as one of the top 100 regional brand value products in China, with a brand value of 4.074 billion yuan [5] - The city of Pu'er is a major coffee production area in China, implementing various measures to enhance the coffee industry, including establishing quality standards [6] - The local government aims to promote the geographical indication of Pu'er Coffee to increase market share and brand recognition [6] Group 6: Algeria's Coffee Import Strategy - Algeria's government plans to involve state-owned enterprises in the import of coffee and bananas to stabilize prices and ensure supply [7] - The country imports approximately 130,000 tons of coffee beans annually, with an import value of around 300 million USD [7] - Recent supply shortages and price hikes have prompted the government to take action against speculation in the market [7]

Core Viewpoint - Luckin Coffee is signaling a new phase of expansion with a focus on targeted franchise recruitment in over 186 cities, aiming to capture key locations in underserved markets such as schools and hospitals [4][6][7]. Group 1: Expansion Strategy - The new franchise model launched in early 2024 allows franchisees to propose locations within a defined area set by Luckin [5]. - Luckin plans to open a total of 2,342 new stores in Q1 2024, with a gradual reduction in the number of new openings in subsequent quarters [12]. - The company has already approved over 500 targeted locations, leading to the opening of more than 400 stores by April [17]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, Luckin reported a revenue increase of 41.2% to 8.865 billion yuan, with a net profit of 525 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [36]. - Same-store sales growth reached 8.1%, indicating a positive trend in customer demand [33]. - The gross profit margin for self-operated stores improved significantly, rising to 17.1%, an increase of over 10 percentage points year-on-year [34]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Luckin faces intense competition not only from Starbucks and Kudi but also from emerging tea brands like Mixue and Bawang Tea, which have recently completed financing rounds [43][44]. - The company is diversifying its product offerings by entering the tea market, launching new products like light milk tea to attract a broader customer base [46][55]. - Despite the challenges, Luckin's market share is expected to grow as it maintains competitive pricing strategies amid rising coffee bean costs [38]. Group 4: Management Changes - The recent management transition, with Li Hui stepping into a more visible role, is seen as a signal for accelerating business and capital strategies [19][24]. - Li Hui's experience in investment banking and private equity is expected to bolster Luckin's growth trajectory and governance stability [22][23].