及 产 业 建筑装饰 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 (8621)23297818× tangmeng@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 11 月 23 日 住建部召开城市更新工作推进会，强调"四 好"建设 看好 ——申万宏源建筑周报（20251117-20251121） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 - ⚫ 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数-6.11%，沪深 300 指 数-3.77%，相对收益为-2.34pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为国际 工程（-2.37%）、基建央企（-4.69%）、基建国企（-5.64%），对应 行业内三个公司：北方国际（+5.89%）、中国交 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the context where the convertible bond market approached the high point at the end of August again, there was an obvious pullback this week, forming a "double - top" pattern since the end of August, with a significant pullback in micro - cap stocks. The convertible bond market's anti - decline ability was significantly stronger than at the end of August, and the valuation was relatively high. The 100 - yuan premium rate valuation was approaching 40%, exceeding the high point at the end of August. This might be related to two factors: the relatively weak price and valuation of high - price convertible bonds in this round of the repair market, and the "reverse operation" of funds [2][3]. - In the short term, the convertible bond valuation has reached the annual high, with weak valuation protection and a high dependence on the performance of the underlying stocks. Considering the limited downside space of the equity market and the under - allocation of convertible bond positions, there are still trading opportunities in the convertible bond market [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View and Outlook - The convertible bond market approached the high point at the end of August again and then pulled back, forming a "double - top" pattern. The anti - decline ability of convertible bonds was strong, and the valuation was high. The 100 - yuan premium rate valuation was close to 40%. The reasons were the weak performance of high - price convertible bonds and the "reverse operation" of funds. Short - term valuation protection was weak, but there were trading opportunities [2][3]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - The anti - decline ability of convertible bonds was strong, and the valuation increased significantly. The 100 - yuan premium rate valuation (39.6%) exceeded the high point on August 22 (37.6%). The current 100 - yuan premium rate was 39.6%, with a weekly increase of 3.5%, and the latest quantile was at the 97.6% percentile since 2017 [2][4]. - Although the underlying stocks declined significantly, convertible bonds showed strong anti - decline characteristics. The conversion premium rate in the parity range above 130 yuan increased significantly, while the valuation in the debt - biased area decreased slightly [2][8]. - The median price of convertible bonds was 131.39 yuan, a decrease of 2.61 yuan from last week, and the yield to maturity was - 6.41%, an increase of 0.63% from last week. The current quantile levels were at the 98.10 and 1.50 percentiles since 2017 respectively [14]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - This week, Lizhong Convertible Bond, Chutian Convertible Bond, Guocheng Convertible Bond, Mingdian Convertible Bond 02, and Hongfa Convertible Bond announced redemptions, while Huicheng, Haoyuan, and Aofei Convertible Bonds announced non - redemptions, with a forced redemption rate of 63%. There were 16 convertible bonds that had issued forced redemption or maturity redemption announcements but had not been delisted, and the potential conversion or maturity balance of forced - redemption and maturity convertible bonds was 9.3 billion yuan. Currently, there were 40 convertible bonds in the redemption process, 9 were expected to meet the redemption conditions next week, and 14 were expected to issue redemption trigger announcements [2][17][19]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - No convertible bonds proposed downward revisions this week. Aidi and Jingneng Convertible Bonds announced downward - revision results, both revised to the bottom. As of now, 106 convertible bonds were in the non - downward - revision period, 20 could not be downward - revised due to net asset constraints, 2 had triggered the downward - revision condition but the stock price was still below the trigger price and no announcement had been made, and 34 were accumulating downward - revision days [2][22]. 3.3.3 Put - Option - This week, Honglu and Bairun Convertible Bonds issued conditional put - option announcements. As of now, 7 convertible bonds were accumulating put - option trigger days, 1 was also accumulating downward - revision days, and 6 were in the non - downward - revision period [2][25]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - This week, Maolai Convertible Bond was issued, and Maolai and Ruike Convertible Bonds had been issued but not yet listed. Zhuomei Convertible Bond was expected to be listed next week (November 24, 2025). As of now, there were 8 convertible bonds in the approval - registration progress, with a total issuance scale of 6.7 billion yuan, and 6 in the listing - committee approval progress, with a total issuance scale of 7.8 billion yuan [2][28].

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates, reaching a new high, driven by a notable decline in Russian oil exports, which has created additional demand for oil transportation from the Middle East to India and China [3][4] - The report suggests a positive outlook for the transportation sector, particularly in shipping and aviation, with recommendations for specific companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring seasonal trends in freight rates, particularly the potential for a "not-so-dull" off-season from December to February [3] Industry Overview - The transportation index has decreased by 5.00%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.23 percentage points, with the express delivery sector showing the smallest decline at -2.75% and the public transport sector experiencing the largest drop at -9.35% [4][11] - The shipping sector has shown mixed performance, with the Baltic Dry Index increasing by 5.67% while the coastal dry bulk freight index fell by 3.47% [4][11] - The report notes that the average freight rate for VLCCs has risen by 5% week-on-week, reaching $126,371 per day, with the Middle East to Far East route hitting a new high of $138,144 per day [3][4] Shipping Sector Insights - The report indicates that the average freight rate for the fourth quarter is approaching $99,000 per day, marking it as one of the highest quarterly averages in history [3] - The decline in Russian oil exports has been significant, dropping from nearly 4 million barrels per day to around 3 million barrels per day, which has increased demand for oil from the Middle East [3][4] - The report also highlights the recovery of chartering activities following the Bahri conference, with shipowners beginning to control capacity due to tightening supply [3] Aviation Sector Insights - The report discusses the unprecedented challenges in the aircraft manufacturing supply chain, with an aging fleet expected to persist over the next 5-10 years, leading to constrained supply [3] - It anticipates a significant improvement in airline profitability as capacity is allocated to international routes, suggesting a potential golden era for airlines [3] - Recommendations include major airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from these trends [3] Express Delivery Sector Insights - The express delivery industry is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined: price recovery leading to utility-like profitability, continued competitive pressure, or higher-level consolidation [3] - Companies such as Shentong Express and YTO Express are highlighted as having strong potential due to their competitive advantages and market positioning [3] High Dividend Stocks in Transportation - The report lists high dividend yield stocks in the transportation sector, including Bohai Ferry with a yield of 8.08% and China Railway with a yield of 3.95% [21] - The focus on high dividend stocks is seen as a stable investment strategy amidst market fluctuations [21]

Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in AI technology, particularly with Google's release of Gemini 3 Pro and Nano Banana Pro, which enhance multi-modal understanding and production capabilities [4][5][6] - The Chinese AI industry is expected to see accelerated innovation across computing power, models, and applications in 2026, transitioning from a competitive landscape to a more integrated ecosystem [4][5][6] - Huawei's Flex:ai container technology represents a key breakthrough in AI infrastructure, enabling efficient management of heterogeneous computing resources [4][5][6] Computing Power - The report identifies 2026 as the year of industrialization for domestic computing power, with significant advancements in domestic AI chips and supernodes, showcasing strong engineering capabilities [4][18][22] - Domestic supernodes are categorized into "multi-cabinet" and "single high-density" paths, with Huawei's CM384 and other solutions demonstrating competitive advantages [22][23][31] - Innovations in server architecture and cooling technologies are highlighted, with the potential to enhance overall computing performance and efficiency [27][30][31] Models - The gap between Chinese and American large models is narrowing, with domestic models like DeepSeek and Qwen3 showing competitive performance and cost-effectiveness [33][36] - The report predicts that the monetization of large models will accelerate in 2025, focusing on AI programming and multi-modal applications [33][34] - The introduction of mid-training as a distinct phase in model development is expected to enhance the performance and efficiency of large models [52][55] Applications - The report emphasizes the importance of industry know-how as a competitive advantage in the software sector, suggesting that large models cannot fully replace customized software solutions [58][60] - AI applications are in the early stages of penetration within the software industry, with significant growth potential anticipated as companies begin to disclose AI-related revenues [61][64] - The report draws parallels between the current AI application landscape and the early days of cloud computing, indicating a favorable investment window for software companies [64] AI Infrastructure - Huawei's Flex:ai technology is positioned as a critical component of AI infrastructure, enabling the unified management of various computing resources [65][67] - The report notes that traditional container technologies are insufficient for AI workloads, highlighting the need for specialized AI containers to meet evolving demands [67][68]

Core Viewpoints - The current adjustment is characterized as a "doubtful bull market level," indicating that the major trends in the AI industry chain have not ended, although there are short-term fluctuations and a temporary lack of cost-effectiveness in large trends. This situation resembles historical patterns observed in early 2014, early 2018, and early 2021 [1][3][5] - The "two-stage bull market theory" remains unchanged, suggesting that the transition from Bull Market 1.0 to 2.0 is a typical feature of the A-share bull market cycle. The transition period is expected to occur in the first half of 2026, with a full bull market potentially starting in the second half of 2026 [1][5][6] Summary by Sections Adjustment Phase - The adjustment phase is seen as a "doubtful bull market level," where the AI industry chain is experiencing a lack of cost-effectiveness, leading to a market correction. Historical experiences indicate that such adjustments are typical and often occur in quarterly cycles [3][4] - The current market conditions show that the implied equity risk premium (ERP) in sectors like telecommunications and electronics is still above historical lows, while the price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are at absolute historical highs [3][4] Spring Market Outlook - The spring market is expected to be more promising post-adjustment, with economic growth needing to maintain a high level to achieve the 2035 medium-developed country goal. The third quarter of 2025 showed weak economic performance, and December 2025 is seen as a critical window for laying out economic policies for 2026 [6][7] - The technology sector is anticipated to see a rapid improvement in cost-effectiveness, with institutional investors reducing their technology holdings in the short term. The micro-structural improvements in the technology sector are also expected to play a significant role in the spring market rotation [6][7] 2026 Industry Style and Rhythm Outlook - The transition from Bull Market 1.0 to 2.0 is expected to favor high-dividend defensive stocks. The actual improvement in economic sentiment will catalyze cyclical stocks to lead index breakthroughs, with technology trends and manufacturing global influence being the main themes of the bull market [8] - In the spring of 2026, the early validation of policy bottoms, cyclical price increases, and improved year-on-year PPI expectations will provide a foundation for cyclical assets. Key areas of focus include basic chemicals, industrial technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and defense industries, with potential rebounds in AI computing power, storage, energy storage, and robotics [8]

Group 1 - Google's release of Gemini 3 Pro and Nano Banana Pro significantly enhances multi-modal understanding and production capabilities, moving beyond simple image generation to more complex outputs [5][7][20] - The Chinese AI industry is expected to evolve from a competitive landscape to a more structured development path by 2026, with opportunities in computing power, models, and applications [5][6][20] - Huawei's Flex:ai technology represents a breakthrough in AI infrastructure, improving computing resource utilization by 30% through advanced scheduling and management of heterogeneous computing resources [5][6][76] Group 2 - The performance gap between Chinese and American large models is narrowing, with domestic models like DeepSeek and Qwen3 showing competitive capabilities in language and reasoning tasks [35][38][42] - The trend of "super nodes" in computing power is becoming clearer, with significant advancements in domestic AI chip performance and architecture, enhancing the overall competitiveness of Chinese solutions [20][25][33] - The software industry in China is entering a prime period for AI application, leveraging industry-specific know-how that large models cannot fully replace, thus creating a unique competitive advantage [63][66][70] Group 3 - The introduction of mid-training in model development signifies a shift towards a more refined and systematic approach, enhancing the capabilities of large models through targeted training [56][60] - The emergence of physical AI, which combines physical laws with data-driven decision-making, is expected to revolutionize various industries, particularly in areas like autonomous driving and digital twins [51][52] - Huawei's Flex:ai is positioned to compete with NVIDIA's Run:ai, offering a more versatile solution for managing diverse AI workloads across different hardware platforms [79][81]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the current adjustment phase is characterized as a "doubtful bull market level," with the AI industry chain experiencing a significant trend that has not yet ended, while smaller fluctuations are present and the cost-effectiveness of large trends is temporarily insufficient. This situation resembles historical patterns observed in early 2014 with the ChiNext, early 2018 with food and beverage, and early 2021 with new energy [4][6][7] - The "bull market two-stage theory" remains unchanged, confirming the high-level area of the bull market 1.0 phase. The transition from bull market 1.0 to 2.0 is expected to occur in the first half of 2026, with a focus on the accumulation of conditions for a comprehensive bull market and adjustments in industry trends to digest cost-effectiveness issues [6][7][9] - The report emphasizes that while adjustments are occurring, it is crucial to maintain a firm belief in the bull market. The adjustment phase is seen as a potential bottom, particularly when it aligns with the core track's bull-bear boundary [6][7] Group 2 - The report expresses optimism for the spring market following the adjustment, highlighting that achieving the 2035 medium-developed country goal requires maintaining a high economic growth rate. The economic performance in Q3 2025 was weak, and December 2025 is identified as a critical window for laying out economic policies for 2026, with the possibility of an early verification of the "policy bottom" [7][8] - Two key clues for the spring market are discussed: first, the management's emphasis on economic growth and the potential early verification of the "policy bottom"; second, the mid-term upward trend of the technology industry remains unchanged, with the AI industry still in "stage 3" and moving towards "stage 4," indicating non-linear growth in industry profits [8][9] - The report anticipates that the transition from bull market 1.0 to 2.0 will favor high-dividend defensive strategies, with the actual improvement in economic sentiment catalyzing a breakthrough in cyclical stocks, while the technology industry's trend and global influence of manufacturing will be the main lines of the bull market [9] Group 3 - The report outlines expectations for the 2026 industry style rhythm, indicating that cyclical stocks may serve as the foundational assets for the spring market, with basic chemicals and industrial technology being highlighted as higher elasticity directions. The technology sector is expected to rebound, focusing on innovative pharmaceuticals and national defense industries [9][10] - Specific sectors such as AI computing power, storage, energy storage, and robotics are anticipated to have rebound opportunities in the spring [9][10] - The report includes quantitative sentiment indicators and ETF tracking data, providing insights into market dynamics and investor sentiment [2][17]

Report Information - Report Date: November 22, 2025 [1] - Report Title: High - frequency Economic Weekly Report (2025.11.16 - 2025.11.22) [2] - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Yi Qiang, Wang Zheyi [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The economic situation shows mixed trends. Industrial production is weak, while personnel flow continues to rise, and freight prices increase slightly. Consumption and some segments of the real - estate market show different trends, and export - related indicators also have their own characteristics. [3] Summary by Catalog 1. Big - class Assets - This week, bond indices generally rose, with the ChinaBond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank bond index rising the most by 0.7%. Stock indices and commodities generally fell, with the ChiNext Index falling the most by 6.15%, and the Nanhua Precious Metals Index dropping by 4.07%. Most foreign currencies depreciated against the RMB, with the Japanese yen having the largest decline of 1.19%, while the US dollar appreciated by 0.14% against the RMB. [3] 2. Industrial Production - Production performance is weak. From the upstream, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27%, the petroleum asphalt plant operating rate dropped by 4.20 pcts to 24.80%, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.62 pcts to 82.17%, while the crude steel output increased by 6.00%. In the real - estate chain, the rebar operating rate rose by 1.31 pcts to 43.29%, the float glass operating rate decreased by 0.34 pcts to 74.96%, and the mill operating rate dropped by 0.39 pcts to 33.29%. In the consumer goods chain, the polyester filament operating rate increased by 0.10 pcts to 91.33%, the PTA operating rate decreased by 1.89 pcts to 74.29%, and the methanol operating rate dropped by 0.17 pcts to 83.77%. In the automotive chain, the automotive semi - steel tire operating rate decreased by 2.61 pcts to 71.07%, and the automotive full - steel tire operating rate decreased by 3.19 pcts to 61.31%. [3] 3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow continued to rise, and freight prices increased slightly. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index increased by 6.45% week - on - week. The 7DMA of domestic flight operations increased by 1.51%, and the 7DMA of international flight operations increased by 0.84%. Beijing's subway passenger volume decreased, while those of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou increased. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index increased by 0.02% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period last year. [3] 4. Consumption - Automobile sales growth declined year - on - year, and price performance decreased. The previous period's automobile wholesale decreased by 5.00% year - on - year, and retail sales decreased by 9.00% year - on - year. Both the 4WMA of wholesale and retail year - on - year growth rates declined. The weekly movie box office decreased by 22%, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers decreased by 22%. Agricultural product prices decreased, with pork prices dropping by 0.83% week - on - week and vegetable prices falling by 6.08% week - on - week. [3] 5. Investment - Construction performance was good, and the commercial housing market had a seasonal uptick. The weekly cement inventory ratio increased by 0.1 pcts, the cement price index increased by 0.43%, and the cement shipping rate remained the same as last week. The rebar inventory decreased by 3.8% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 1.3 pcts, and the rebar apparent demand increased by 6.7% week - on - week. Overall, the terminal demand for construction was good. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 24.2% week - on - week. By city - tier, the transaction area in first - tier cities decreased, while those in second - and third - tier cities increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities decreased by 0.1%, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.2% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land premium rate decreased week - on - week. [3] 6. Export - Port throughput decreased, and most shipping indices increased. The weekly port cargo throughput decreased by 1.1%, and the container throughput decreased by 5.4%. The BDI index increased by 7.06% week - on - week, the domestic SCFI index decreased by 3.98%, and the CCFI index increased by 2.63%. [3]

Group 1 - The duration of medium to long-term pure bond funds has increased, while short-term bond funds have decreased. The median duration for all medium to long-term pure bond funds reached 2.58 years, up 0.08 years week-on-week, placing it at the 80.40th percentile over the past three years [1][4][7] - The median duration for medium to long-term interest rate bond funds reached 3.69 years, increasing by 0.12 years week-on-week, and is at the 84.50th percentile over the past three years [1][7][8] - The median duration for short-term pure bond funds decreased to 0.95 years, down 0.02 years week-on-week, and is at the 83.50th percentile over the past three years [1][7][12] Group 2 - The turnover rate for interest rate bonds has decreased, while the turnover rate for credit bonds has increased. The turnover rate for 10-year and above government bonds decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 1.92%, placing it at the 49.6th percentile over the past three years [1][14][18] - The turnover rate for 5-7 year medium-term notes increased by 0.03 percentage points to 1.23%, at the 28.7th percentile over the past three years [1][14][18] - Local government bonds in Qingdao, Jiangxi, and Jiangsu have shown higher turnover rates, with valuation spreads of 13.81 bps, 10.93 bps, and 11.36 bps respectively [1][21][22] Group 3 - The leverage ratio in the interbank bond market has increased by 0.12 percentage points to 107.17%. The leverage ratio for insurance companies rose by 0.12 percentage points to 128.87%, while the leverage ratio for banks increased by 0.03 percentage points to 102.66% [1][23][28] - The leverage ratio for securities companies decreased by 0.94 percentage points to 224.13%, and the broad fund leverage ratio increased by 0.42 percentage points to 111.89% [1][23][31] Group 4 - The total market's existing wealth management scale increased by 30.252 billion yuan week-on-week, consistent with seasonal levels, while the net value breaking rate slightly decreased [1][29][30] - The scale of fixed-income wealth management products saw significant growth, while other investment types experienced minor fluctuations [1][33][34] - The performance comparison benchmarks for wealth management products showed a decline for 1 month (inclusive) and 1-3 years (inclusive), while remaining stable for 6 months-1 year (inclusive) and over 3 years [1][39][40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group (00992) [1] Core Insights - Lenovo Group's FY25/26 Q2 financial results exceeded expectations, with revenue of $20.452 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.58%, and an adjusted net profit of $512 million, up 25.18% [6] - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) showed strong performance in the PC business, with revenue of $15.107 billion, a year-on-year growth of 11.79%, and PC revenue of approximately $11.1 billion, growing 17.58% [6] - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) reported revenue of $4.087 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.65%, with AI server sales experiencing double-digit growth [6] - The gross margin slightly improved to 15.39%, indicating effective management of rising storage costs [6] - The report forecasts revenue for FY25/26 to FY27/28 at $79.485 billion, $91.551 billion, and $105.244 billion, respectively, with net profits projected at $1.672 billion, $2.029 billion, and $2.433 billion [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY23/24 to FY27/28 are as follows: - FY23/24: $56.864 billion - FY24/25: $69.077 billion - FY25/26E: $79.485 billion - FY26/27E: $91.551 billion - FY27/28E: $105.244 billion [5] - Net profit projections for the same period are: - FY23/24: $1.011 billion - FY24/25: $1.384 billion - FY25/26E: $1.672 billion - FY26/27E: $2.029 billion - FY27/28E: $2.433 billion [5] - Earnings per share are expected to grow from $0.08 in FY23/24 to $0.20 in FY27/28 [5]