| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3910 | -0.37 | -2.2 | 0.3 | | 深证综指 | 2486 | -0.52 | -1.32 | 0.96 | | 风格指数 | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (％) | | | | | 大盘指数 | -0.37 | -1.39 | 19.08 | | 中盘指数 | -0.74 | -2.67 | 24.44 | | 小盘指数 | -0.75 | -2.18 | 19.8 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 元件Ⅱ | 4.56 | 0.36 | 92.45 | | 综合Ⅱ | 3.45 | 7.05 | 50.36 | | 通信设备 | 2.63 | 15.54 | 124.65 | | 一般零售 | 1.77 | 2.61 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - In the recent week, the A - share market showed signs of recovery, with most major broad - based ETFs rising, and the commodity ETFs led by the non - ferrous metals sector also performed well. The issuance and application of index products were active, with a focus on the "Sci - tech innovation, entrepreneurship, and artificial intelligence" theme [1][2][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Index Product Establishment, Raising, and Application - **Product Establishment and Listing**: In the recent week, 2 ETF products, including Penghua Hang Seng Technology ETF and E Fund CSI A500 Dividend Low - Volatility ETF, were listed, and 17 products such as China Merchants Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Board Comprehensive Price Index Enhancement A were established [1][4]. - **Product Issuance Information**: In the coming week, 13 index products will end their fundraising, including GF Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Board Chip Design Theme ETF, and 14 index products will start fundraising, such as Penghua CSI General Aviation Theme ETF [1][6]. - **Product Application Information**: In the recent week, a total of 29 index products were applied for, with the application of fund products picking up. The issuance market focused on the "Sci - tech innovation, entrepreneurship, and artificial intelligence" theme, including 2 artificial - intelligence - themed funds [8]. 3.2 ETF Market Review - **Broad - based ETFs**: Most major A - share broad - based ETFs rose in the recent week, with ChiNext 50ETF and MSCI China A50ETF leading the gains at 2.57% and 1.83% respectively. The gains of major broad - based ETFs in Hong Kong and the US were relatively low. Among commodity ETFs, non - ferrous ETFs rose 4.30%, and gold ETFs rose 0.87% [2][10]. - **Industry ETFs**: The performance of major industry ETFs varied. The cyclical sector generally rose, with the non - ferrous metals ETF having the highest increase of 5.11%. The technology sector showed significant differences, with the communication ETF rising 4.38% and the media ETF falling 3.23% [12]. - **Cross - border ETFs**: Most major cross - border broad - based ETFs rose in the recent week, with the China - South Korea Semiconductor ETF having the highest increase of 2.60% [14]. 3.3 ETF Fund Flows - **Total Market Scale**: As of December 5, 2025, there were 1,373 ETFs in the whole market, with a total scale of 5,755.251 billion yuan, an increase of 65.288 billion yuan from the previous week. The A - share and cross - border ETFs ranked first and second in scale, with the A - share ETF scale increasing by 41.821 billion yuan in the recent week [2][21]. - **Fund Inflows**: In the recent week, the ChinaAMC CSI AAA Science and Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETF and Huatai - Peregrine CSI A500ETF had high fund inflows, with 3.115 billion yuan and 2.220 billion yuan respectively [2][24]. - **Liquidity**: The Haitong CSI Short - Term Financing ETF led in liquidity in the recent week, with an average daily trading volume of 20.704 billion yuan. The Huaxia Shanghai Benchmark Market - Making Treasury Bond ETF also had high liquidity, with an average daily trading volume of 9.361 billion yuan [24].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [7][6] Core Insights - The company has a stable revenue growth trajectory, with total revenue increasing from 312 million yuan in 2017 to 585 million yuan in 2024, representing a CAGR of 9.38% [31][6] - The acquisition of the German company SMS is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in high-precision grinding machines and facilitate the mass production of screw rods, addressing existing technical bottlenecks [6][10] - The company is actively expanding its rolling functional components business, with revenue from linear guide products projected to grow significantly from 4.44 million yuan in 2022 to 34.91 million yuan in 2024 [6][9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 653 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.7% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 61 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a decrease of 30.6% compared to the previous year [5] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.39 yuan in 2025, with a gross margin of 28.9% [5] Business Development and Strategy - The company has diversified its business from metal cutting tools to include intelligent CNC equipment and rolling functional components, enhancing its product matrix [6][17] - The strategic acquisition of SMS is aimed at strengthening the company's equipment capabilities and facilitating the mass production of screw rods, thereby improving operational efficiency [6][10] - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence in the rolling functional components sector, with significant growth expected in the coming years [9][6] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The global cutting tool market is valued at over 260 billion yuan, with the company positioned to capitalize on the domestic market's growth potential [46][49] - The company has established a strong foothold in the domestic market, with its cutting tools accounting for over 80% of total revenue [33][37] - The company’s overseas revenue reached 47.61 million yuan in the first half of 2025, indicating a 20.62% year-on-year increase, showcasing its expanding international market presence [41][44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share major broad-based ETFs mostly rose in the recent week, with ChiNext 50 ETF and MSCI China A50 ETF leading the gains, up 2.57% and 1.83% respectively; the recent-week gains of major broad-based ETFs in Hong Kong and US stocks were relatively low. Commodity ETFs saw the non-ferrous ETF up 4.30% and the gold ETF up 0.87%. Each major industry ETF showed mixed performance. The cyclical category mostly rose, with the non-ferrous metal ETF having the highest increase of 5.11%. In the technology category, the communication ETF rose 4.38%, while the media ETF had a relatively high decline of -3.23% [2][11]. - As of December 5, 2025, there were 1,373 ETFs in the entire market, with a latest total scale of 575.5251 billion yuan, an increase of 6.5288 billion yuan from the previous week. In the recent week, the inflows of ChinaAMC CSI AAA Sci-tech Innovation Corporate Bond ETF and Huatai-PineBridge CSI A500 ETF were relatively high, with inflows of 3.115 billion yuan and 2.22 billion yuan respectively [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Index Product Establishment, Raising, and Declaration - **Product Establishment and Listing**: In the recent week, 2 ETF products, including Penghua Hang Seng Tech ETF and E Fund CSI A500 Dividend Low Volatility ETF, were listed; 17 products, such as China Merchants Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board Comprehensive Price Index Enhanced A, Dacheng CSI 800 Index Enhanced A, and Taixin CSI All - Free Cash Flow Index A, were established [1][5]. - **Product Issuance Information**: In the coming week, 13 index products will end their fundraising, including GF Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board Chip Design Theme ETF and Dongxing China Bond 1 - 3 Year Policy Financial Bond Index A; 14 index products will start their fundraising, including Penghua CSI General Aviation Theme ETF and E Fund CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment ETF [1][7]. - **Product Declaration Information**: A total of 29 index products were declared in the recent week, and the declaration of fund products has recovered. The issuance market focuses on the "Sci - tech Innovation and Entrepreneurship Artificial Intelligence" theme, including 2 artificial intelligence theme funds, Tianhong CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme ETF and Orient Securities Asset Management CSI Shanghai - Hong Kong - Shenzhen Artificial Intelligence 50 Index Fund [1][9]. 3.2 ETF Market Review - A - share major broad - based ETFs mostly rose, with ChiNext 50 ETF and MSCI China A50 ETF leading the gains, up 2.57% and 1.83% respectively; the recent - week gains of major broad - based ETFs in Hong Kong and US stocks were relatively low. Commodity ETFs saw the non - ferrous ETF up 4.30% and the gold ETF up 0.87%. Each major industry ETF showed mixed performance. The cyclical category mostly rose, with the non - ferrous metal ETF having the highest increase of 5.11%. In the technology category, the communication ETF rose 4.38%, while the media ETF had a relatively high decline of - 3.23%. Among cross - border ETFs, most major broad - based indexes in cross - border markets rose in the recent week, with the China - South Korea Semiconductor having the highest increase of 2.60%. In the global market, Huaxia Hang Seng Tech ETF rose 1.20%, and E Fund Hang Seng H - share ETF rose 1.02%. Among non - monetary ETFs, Wanjia CSI Industrial Non - ferrous Metal Theme ETF led the gains with a yield of 7.91%, while Penghua Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board New Energy ETF lagged behind with a yield of - 3.79% [2][11][15]. 3.3 ETF Fund Flow - As of December 5, 2025, there were 1,373 ETFs in the entire market, with a latest total scale of 575.5251 billion yuan, an increase of 6.5288 billion yuan from the previous week. Among them, A - share ETFs and cross - border ETFs ranked first and second in scale, at 364.7542 billion yuan and 95.2548 billion yuan respectively. The scale of A - share ETFs increased by 41.821 billion yuan in the recent week. In the recent week, the inflows of ChinaAMC CSI AAA Sci - tech Innovation Corporate Bond ETF and Huatai - PineBridge CSI A500 ETF were relatively high, with inflows of 3.115 billion yuan and 2.22 billion yuan respectively. Haifutong CSI Short - term Financing ETF led in liquidity in the recent week, with an average daily trading volume of 20.704 billion yuan. Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Benchmark Market - Making Treasury Bond ETF had relatively high liquidity, with an average daily trading volume of 9.361 billion yuan [2][22][25].

债市的"盲点"系列之二 2025 年 12 月 09 日 相关研究 《2026年:财政货币政策展望- 2026 年展望报告系列之 2025/12/02 《中长期债基久期上升，机构杠杆率多数上行——机构行为观察周报 率多数上行一 20251121 》 2025/ 《向"改革" 要红利– 2025/11/22 -2026 年 宏观形势展望》 2025/11/16 《居民存款搬家仍处于起步期 申万宏源策略：五问五答看懂居民 存款搬家》 2025/08/19 t «点点»: 《债市的"盲点" ？ ——兼论长们 利率从"2%" 到 "1%" 的距离》 更论长债 利率从 2025/03/17 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 陈达飞 A0230524080010 chendf@swsresearch.com 李欣越 A0230524080004 lixy@swsresearch.com 赵宇 A0230524080007 zhaoyu2@swsresearch.com 王茂宇 A0230521120001 wangmy2@swsresearch.com 联系人 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - Low - interest environment is not a "safe haven" for low bond - market volatility. Overseas bond markets in low - interest environments often experience rapid and significant adjustments, and bond "convexity" amplifies market volatility [3][80]. - The "homogeneous strategies" and crowded trading behaviors of institutions in a low - interest environment are the micro - foundation of bond - market vulnerability. Reversals in macro - fundamental expectations can trigger rapid bond - market adjustments, and the "rebalancing" of funds exacerbates market volatility [4][80]. - In 2026, the economy is expected to move from "confidence building" to an "atypical" recovery. Nominal GDP repair may lead to fund "rebalancing", and the process of large - scale deposit maturity may intensify bond - market volatility [5][80]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Overseas Experience as a Mirror? "Low - interest" Environment May Not Be a "Safe Haven" for Volatility - Low - interest is not a guarantee of low bond - market volatility. After 1990, the rule that "lower interest rates lead to narrower volatility" in US Treasuries failed, and the volatility of government bonds in other developed economies did not converge as their interest rates dropped from 2% to 1% [3][12]. - Bond - market adjustments in low - interest overseas environments are large - scale, fast, and often accompanied by rising term premiums. The average adjustment amplitudes of the US, Germany, France, and Japan are 81bp, 53bp, 59bp, and 74bp respectively, usually occurring within 1 - 2 months [3][21]. - Bond "convexity" magnifies market volatility in low - interest environments. A 30Y Treasury bond's price decline in a low - interest reversal is about 1.7 times that in a high - interest environment [3][26]. 2. Behind the "High - volatility" Trap? Extreme Deduction of Consensus Expectations and Backlash under Macro - environment Changes - In a low - interest environment, the "homogeneous strategies" of institutions are the micro - foundation of bond - market vulnerability. Allocation - type institutions extend durations, and trading - type institutions increase leverage [4][31]. - Reversals in macro - fundamental expectations are the direct cause of high bond - market volatility. High bond - market volatility in the low - interest era often occurs during interest - rate cuts, and nominal GDP repair is an important trigger [4][38]. - The "rebalancing" of funds due to macro - environment changes exacerbates bond - market volatility. During bond - market adjustments, equity markets usually rise, diverting funds from the bond market [4][45]. 3. Current Reflection? In the "Atypical" Recovery of 2026, Be Wary of the "High - volatility" Trap in the Bond Market - In 2026, the economy is expected to recover atypically. Domestic demand will improve with the easing of the "crowding - out effect" of debt resolution and the deepening of domestic - demand expansion policies. External demand will remain strong, and inflation will improve, while monetary policy will be cautious about interest - rate cuts [5][59]. - Nominal GDP repair often leads to fund "rebalancing" and a "strong - stock, weak - bond" pattern. Currently, the market still has room to return to normal, and the difference between the 10Y Treasury yield and the all - A dividend yield is still below 0% [5][64]. - The domestic bond market has insufficient awareness of the "high - volatility" trap in a low - interest environment. With the record - high wealth - management scale and large - scale resident excess savings, the process of large - scale deposit maturity may intensify bond - market volatility [5][69].

Group 1: Commercial Aerospace - Focus on core targets in satellite manufacturing and launch sectors, which are expected to maintain stable or improving value under cost reduction trends[3] - Key targets include Shanghai Hanzhou, Zhenlei Technology, and Aerospace Electronics for satellite manufacturing, and Hai Ge Communication, Guo Bo Electronics, and Tong Yu Communication for application terminals[3] - Anticipated mergers and acquisitions in Aerospace Technology Group due to its substantial external assets[3] Group 2: Wind Power - Offshore wind power in China is experiencing rapid growth due to abundant resources and proximity to major electricity consumption centers, with significant long-term growth potential[3] - The offshore wind power installation capacity is projected to increase significantly, with various provinces planning substantial projects, such as Zhejiang's 28 GW and Guangdong's 16 GW[38] - European offshore wind construction is expected to accelerate as financing costs decrease, with an anticipated installation of 8.7 GW by 2026[40] Group 3: Hengbo Co., Ltd. - Hengbo is projected to achieve net profits of 1.52/1.77/2.05 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.3%/16.6%/15.4%[3] - The company is positioned as a leading supplier in the intake system sector, leveraging its cost advantages and customer resources to expand into overseas markets[3] - The PEEK business, through joint ventures, is expected to capture significant market share in high-end manufacturing applications, particularly in humanoid robots[3] Group 4: Tool Industry - The tool industry is experiencing a supply expansion due to high profit margins attracting numerous manufacturers, leading to increased competition[3] - Rising tungsten prices are prompting raw material suppliers to demand cash payments, which may lead to the exit of smaller firms and stabilize the industry structure[3] - Major companies are expected to expand production capacity, enhancing their resilience against market fluctuations[3]

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3924 | 0.54 | -1.84 | 0.26 | | 深证综指 | 2499 | 1.22 | -0.81 | 0.81 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 0.84 | -1.02 | 19.8 | | 中盘指数 | 1.13 | -1.94 | 26.38 | | 小盘指数 | 1.22 | -1.44 | 21.86 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信设备 | 5.96 | 12.58 | 122.51 | | 其他电子Ⅱ | 4.77 | -4.33 | 50.79 | | 元件Ⅱ | 4.08 | -4.02 | 85.89 | | 综合Ⅱ | 3.03 | 3.48 | 46.56 | | ...

策 略 研 究 2025 年 12 月 08 日 健信超导：全球领先的专业磁共振核 心部件供应商 ——注册制新股纵览 20251208 新股分析 本期投资提示： 相关研究 - 证券分析师 彭文玉 A0230517080001 pengwy@swsresearch.com 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 任奕璇 A0230525050002 renyx2@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱敏 (8621)23297818× zhumin@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 申 购 策 略 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ AHP 得分及配售比例：剔除、考虑流动性溢价因素后，我们测算健信超导 AHP 得分均为 2.38 分，分别位于科创体系 AHP 模型总分 39.2%分位、41.4%分位，均处于中游偏下水平。 假设以 90%入围率计，中性预期情形下，健信超导网下 A、B 两类配售对象的配售比例分别 是：0.0302%、0.0223%。 ⚫ 全球 MRI 核心部件领军企业，零 ...

Group 1: Export Data Overview - November exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3% and recovering from a previous decline of -1.1% in October[7] - The rise in exports is attributed to the easing of supply disruptions rather than an improvement in external demand[2] - The number of working days in November increased by 2 days compared to the previous year, contributing to the export rebound[2] Group 2: Import Data Overview - November imports rose by 1.9% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.9% but up from 1% in October[7] - Processing trade imports surged by 9.2 percentage points to 13.9%, indicating a recovery in trade activity[26] - Major commodities like crude oil saw a rebound in import growth, with an increase of 8.4 percentage points to 8.1%[26] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - Consumer electronics exports grew by 5.1 percentage points to 3.3%, with significant contributions from mobile phones and LCD display modules[37] - Capital goods exports showed mixed results, with general machinery and medical instruments increasing, while shipbuilding exports fell significantly[43] - Exports to emerging markets, particularly Africa and Latin America, saw notable increases of 17.1 and 12.8 percentage points, reaching 27.7% and 15% respectively[14] Group 4: Future Outlook - The easing of supply disruptions and ongoing competitive advantages for Chinese exports are expected to support export growth in the coming months[30] - Potential improvements in exports to the U.S. are anticipated due to reduced tariffs and ongoing inventory replenishment needs[30] - Continued industrialization in emerging economies is likely to drive demand for intermediate and capital goods from China[30]