行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 2026 年 02 月 09 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 价格波动较大，向好趋势不改 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20260202-20260206 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 iFind，环比上周 1）上证指数下跌 1.27%，深证成指下跌 2.11%，沪深 300 下跌 1.33%，有色金属（申 万）指数下跌 8.51%，跑输沪深 300 指数 7.18 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属下跌 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the machinery industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [12]. Core Insights - The machinery industry is projected to experience steady performance with technological advancements driving value recovery. Key sectors such as space photovoltaics, machine tools, robotics, and laser technology are highlighted as areas of growth [3][6]. - The report forecasts significant revenue growth for 21 tracked machinery companies in Q4 2025, with notable performers including Zoomlion (183%), DingTai High-Tech (179%), and Wolong Electric Drive (82%) [3][4]. Summary by Sections Space Photovoltaics - The commercial space sector is entering a new phase characterized by large-scale deployment and capability upgrades, leading to increased demand for space photovoltaics. The upcoming decade is expected to see a super cycle in satellite manufacturing and launching, directly impacting the demand for satellite energy systems [3]. - Key equipment suppliers in this sector include Maiwei Co., Aotwei, and others, focusing on the transition from traditional energy solutions to advanced photovoltaic technologies [3]. Machine Tools & Cutting Tools - The machine tool sector is anticipated to shift towards high-end transformation and domestic substitution of core components. The production of metal cutting machine tools is expected to reach 868,300 units in 2025, a 9.7% increase year-on-year [3]. - The cutting tool market is also expected to benefit from rising prices of tungsten and increased domestic demand, with companies like DingTai High-Tech and Huari Precision being recommended for investment [3]. Robotics & Components - The human-shaped robot industry is progressing towards commercialization, with significant developments expected in 2025. Major players like Tesla and Huawei are entering the market, and various forms of robots are being tested in real-world applications [3]. - Companies such as Lide Harmony and Yujian Technology are highlighted as key players in this evolving market [3]. Laser Technology - General laser technology is experiencing rapid growth due to high power and new technology iterations, while specialized lasers are seeing increased demand from sectors like AI PCB drilling and photovoltaic battery production [6]. - Recommended companies in this field include Baichu Electronics and Dier Laser [6]. Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is expected to benefit from both domestic and international demand, with significant infrastructure projects and capital expenditures anticipated [6]. - Key companies to watch include Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG [6]. Forklifts - The forklift market is projected to grow, with total sales expected to reach 1.4518 million units in 2025, a 12.9% increase year-on-year. The trend towards automation and smart logistics is reshaping the industry [6]. - Recommended companies include Anhui Heli and Hangcha Group [6]. Rail Transit Equipment - The railway investment is expected to maintain high growth, with fixed asset investments projected to reach 901.5 billion yuan in 2025, a 6.0% increase year-on-year [6]. - Key players in this sector include CRRC Corporation and Siwei Control [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the environmental industry, indicating an "Overweight" investment rating for the sector, suggesting it will outperform the overall market [2][11]. Core Insights - The environmental industry is experiencing a continuous differentiation in performance, with stable operational assets. The report anticipates steady growth in net profits for various segments in 2025, with specific companies showing significant year-on-year increases [2][3]. - Municipal water services are stable, benefiting from strategic expansions and water price adjustments, while the demand for sewage engineering is declining [2]. - The waste incineration sector is also stable, with operational improvements despite a slowdown in new projects and tenders. Different companies are experiencing varied profit growth due to factors like historical revenue recognition and depreciation [2][3]. - The sanitation market remains stable, with profit growth influenced by impairment and the introduction of automated sanitation orders [2]. - Equipment products are facing a widening performance gap due to varying impacts from downstream sectors, with some companies expected to see declines in net profit growth [2]. Summary by Segment Municipal Water Services - Overall operations are stable, with net profit growth expected to be steady in 2025. Key companies include: - Zhongshan Public Utilities: 2025 net profit expected to increase by 67% to 2,000 million [3]. - Jiangnan Water: 3% increase to 415 million [3]. - Xingrong Environment: 8% increase to 2,150 million [3]. - Hongcheng Environment: 1% increase to 1,200 million [3]. Waste Incineration - The sector is stable with operational improvements. Key companies include: - Green Power: 23% increase to 720 million [3]. - Hanlan Environment: 20% increase to 2,000 million [3]. - Junxin Co.: 49% increase to 800 million [3]. Sanitation - The market is stable, with profit growth influenced by impairment and automation. Key companies include: - Yingfeng Environment: 36% increase to 700 million [3]. - Yuhua Tian: 4% increase to 600 million [3]. Equipment Products - Performance varies significantly across companies. Key companies include: - Longjing Environmental: 32% increase to 1,100 million [3]. - Qinda Environmental: 88% increase to 175 million [3]. - Woton Technology: 26% increase to 250 million [3]. Investment Recommendations - Municipal Environmental: Stable profitability with improving cash flow and opportunities in environmental assets. Recommended companies include Zhongshan Public Utilities, Junxin Co., Hanlan Environment, and others [2]. - Automated Sanitation: Growth potential in the field of sanitation robots. Recommended companies include Yingfeng Environment and Yuhua Tian [2]. - Green Methanol and SAF: Benefiting from EU policies, with recommended companies including CIMC Anrui and others [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the carbon trading market and related sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment for companies involved in power generation and environmental protection [2][9]. Core Insights - The carbon market in China is expanding, with a cumulative trading volume of 865 million tons and a total transaction value of 57.663 billion yuan as of December 31, 2025. The trading volume for the year increased by approximately 24% year-on-year, although the average transaction price fell by 19.23% to 62.36 yuan per ton [2][6]. - The report highlights the government's commitment to carbon reduction, transitioning from energy control to carbon control, which is expected to create investment opportunities in the environmental sector [9]. - Natural gas prices have decreased due to a combination of supply-demand dynamics and seasonal factors, with significant price drops observed in various markets, including a 39.20% decrease in the Henry Hub spot price [2][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - The carbon trading market is projected to continue expanding, with key emission units increasing awareness of carbon reduction. The number of units under management reached 3,378, with significant representation from the power, steel, cement, and aluminum industries [2][6]. - Recommendations for investment include companies with stable revenue sources such as Guodian Power, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and China Huaneng, which benefit from diversified income streams [9][11]. 2. Natural Gas Sector - Natural gas prices have seen a significant decline, with the Henry Hub spot price at $4.37/mmBtu, reflecting a 39.20% week-on-week drop. The report notes that the supply-demand balance is improving, contributing to this price decrease [2][12]. - Investment recommendations include companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, which are expected to benefit from lower upstream resource costs and improved sales volumes [34][35]. 3. Market Performance Review - The report indicates that the power equipment and gas sectors outperformed the broader market during the review period from February 2 to February 6, 2026 [37]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent regulatory updates include the National Development and Reform Commission's notification on improving the capacity pricing mechanism for coal and gas power generation, which aims to enhance revenue recovery for power plants [39][40]. - Key company announcements include performance forecasts from major players like Datang Power and Shanghai Electric, indicating significant year-on-year profit growth [41]. 5. Valuation Tables - The report provides valuation metrics for key companies in the utility sector, with several companies rated as "Buy," indicating strong growth potential and favorable market conditions [43][44].

Investment Rating - The report rates the public utility industry as "Overweight" for 2025, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the cost pressures from coal and natural gas prices are easing, which is expected to improve the profit margins for power generation companies. The implementation of capacity pricing is stabilizing revenues, allowing for a diversified income model for thermal power companies [3]. - Hydropower is projected to benefit from improved water conditions in the second half of 2025, leading to stable growth in electricity generation. The reduction in financial costs due to interest rate cuts is also expected to enhance profitability [3]. - Nuclear power utilization hours are expected to remain high, but the decline in market electricity prices may negatively impact earnings. The approval of new nuclear projects is anticipated to support long-term growth [3]. - Renewable energy, particularly wind and solar, is expected to continue its high growth trajectory, supported by favorable investment mechanisms and stable returns from existing projects [3]. - The natural gas sector is poised for profitability improvements due to declining costs and a recovery in demand from commercial users [3]. Summary by Sections Thermal Power - Coal prices are expected to decline initially and then rebound, with an average price of 697 RMB/ton for 2025, down 18.47% year-on-year. The average price in Q2 2025 is projected to be 632 RMB/ton, a 12.36% decrease quarter-on-quarter and a 25.5% decrease year-on-year. The implementation of capacity pricing is expected to stabilize revenues for thermal power companies [3]. Hydropower - The utilization hours for hydropower are projected to be 3367 hours in 2025, an increase of 12 hours year-on-year. The first half of the year is expected to see lower water levels, while the second half will benefit from improved conditions, particularly in Q4 [3]. Nuclear Power - The utilization hours for nuclear power are expected to reach 7809 hours in 2025, an increase of 126 hours year-on-year. However, the decline in market electricity prices may negatively impact earnings [3]. Renewable Energy - By the end of September 2025, the total installed capacity for wind and solar energy is expected to reach 1.7 billion kW, with annual additions of 15-18.9 million kW needed to meet the 2035 target of 3.6 billion kW [3]. Natural Gas - The report anticipates a recovery in sales volume for natural gas companies in Q4 2025, driven by lower costs and improved demand from commercial sectors [3]. Company Performance Forecast - The report provides a detailed forecast for key companies in the public utility sector, indicating varying growth rates across different segments, with some companies expected to see significant profit growth while others may experience declines [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies across different segments, including thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, renewable energy, and natural gas, highlighting those with strong growth potential and stable earnings [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the polyester filament industry, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for quality companies in this sector [5][14]. Core Insights - The cost support for polyester filament raw materials remains solid, with expectations for a post-holiday inventory replenishment trend. The industry is currently in a seasonal lull before the Spring Festival, but proactive supply adjustments are laying the groundwork for recovery after the holiday [5][6]. - As of February 6, 2026, the operating rate for downstream textile production has dropped to 25.15%, while the operating rate for polyester filament has decreased to 79.65%. This decline is attributed to seasonal maintenance and self-regulated production cuts, effectively alleviating supply pressure [5][6]. - Inventory levels for polyester filament (POY/FDY/DTY) are at historical lows, with respective days of inventory at 12.7, 15.8, and 19.4 days. Downstream raw material inventory has also fallen to a historical low of 8.74 days, indicating a clear need for replenishment post-holiday [5][7]. - The price spread for polyester filament has significantly improved since late January 2026, with POY/FDY/DTY spreads recovering to 1375, 1575, and 2475 CNY/ton respectively. The PTA cost support remains robust, with no major new PTA facilities expected to come online in 2026, suggesting a tight supply-demand balance that will continue to support filament prices [5][12]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices have decreased, with the closing price on February 6, 2026, at 68.05 USD/barrel, down 3.73% from the previous week. The WTI price was 63.55 USD/barrel, down 2.55% [21]. - As of January 30, 2026, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories stood at 420 million barrels, a decrease of 3.455 million barrels from the previous week, marking a 4% decline compared to the past five years [23]. Refining Sector - The comprehensive price spread for major refined products in Singapore increased to 15.63 USD/barrel as of February 6, 2026, reflecting a rise of 6.2 USD/barrel from the previous week [60]. - The price spread for gasoline (RBOB) against WTI crude oil was 18.4 USD/barrel, up 1.8 USD/barrel from the previous week, although still below the historical average of 24.5 USD/barrel [63]. Polyester Sector - The profitability of PTA has increased, while the profitability of polyester filament has decreased. As of February 4, 2026, the average price of PX in Asia was 904.93 USD/ton, down 1.78% week-on-week [5][14]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry is currently average, with expectations for gradual improvement as new production capacities are expected to taper off in the coming years [5][14].

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant adjustment in overseas technology stocks, particularly in the US, which has affected market sentiment in A-shares. The Nasdaq index fell by 12.4%, with major companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Facebook experiencing declines of 6.8%, 12.1%, and 7.7% respectively. This adjustment is seen as a revaluation of the "Trump-Wash" combination and reflects changing expectations regarding US liquidity. Concerns about AI capital expenditure bubbles and its impact on software stock profitability have also emerged [8][9]. - The North Exchange 50 index decreased by 0.7%, with trading volume dropping by 28.7%. The cautious market sentiment has led to better performance in low valuation sectors such as food and beverage, beauty care, transportation, and banking. In contrast, sectors like power equipment have shown volatility due to themes like space photovoltaic [8][12]. - Investment analysis suggests that the market is expected to remain volatile before the holiday, with a focus on individual stocks that may have been unfairly punished due to decreased risk appetite, as well as companies with new narratives. Specific stocks to watch include LUMENTUM, Gobi Jia, and others [9][12]. Group 2 - The report notes that 63 stocks in the North Exchange rose while 224 fell, resulting in a rise-fall ratio of 0.28. The top gainers included *ST Yun Chuang and Opteye, while the biggest losers were Kangnong Agriculture and Qiule Seed Industry [29][34]. - The average PE (TTM) for the North Exchange is reported at 82.05 times, with a median of 39.37 times. The average PE for the ChiNext is 92.67 times, and for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, it is 105.31 times, indicating a downward trend across these indices [12][14][17]. - The North Exchange saw a total trading volume of 4.218 billion shares, a decrease of 29.24% week-on-week, with a total trading value of 102.42 billion yuan, down by 28.70% [20][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Outperform" [2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.058 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.8%, and a net profit of 237 million yuan, up 33.9% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2025 saw revenues of 262 million yuan, a 21.5% increase, and a net profit of 78 million yuan, up 26.4% year-on-year [5][8]. - The company is expanding its generic drug product line while simultaneously advancing new drug development. The fourth quarter profits exceeded expectations due to delayed large R&D expenditures and effective cost reduction measures [5][8]. - The company is actively increasing its pipeline of innovative drugs, with the DYX116 project progressing as expected. The drug has completed Phase I clinical trials and is set to enter Phase II trials in the first half of 2026 [8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 1.058 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 21.8%. The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 237 million yuan, with a growth rate of 33.9% [7][11]. - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 237 million yuan, 174 million yuan, and 140 million yuan respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment for 2026 and 2027 due to anticipated price reductions from centralized procurement [8][9]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 18, 24, and 30 respectively, compared to an average PE of 38 for comparable companies [9][8].

证 券 研 究 报 告 报告摘要 2026.2.9 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 Capex计划超预期，为何美股科技反而下跌？ 全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20260130-20260206) 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 王胜 A0230511060001 3 2. 全球资金流向：资金流入发达市场股市，流出中国股市 3. 资产估值指标：A股ERP较上周小幅上升，仍位于历史中性水平 4. 资产风险情绪：美股散户看涨比例下降，A股隐含波动率显著下行 5. 全球经济数据：美国制造业PMI大幅上行，降息预期小幅上行 6. 风险提示 地缘避险与增长忧虑交织，黄金与工业金属走势分化 ◼ 全球资本市场回顾：本周 (20260130-20260206)美国ADP数据低于预期，美联储3月降息预期升温1）固收方面，10Y美债收益率录得 4.22%，本周下跌4BP，美元指数上涨0.51%，当前点位为97.6；2）本周泰国、法国市场股市上涨较多，A股全线收跌，恒生科技、科创50 和创业扳指跌幅位列前三，阿根廷、越 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][33]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector saw a slight increase of 0.14% in the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.27% [3][2]. - The report highlights the implementation of the "Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry High-Quality Development Implementation Plan (2026-2030)" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments, aiming to enhance the supply chain and technological advancements in the traditional Chinese medicine sector [11][12]. - Key pharmaceutical products such as Eli Lilly's Tirzepatide are projected to generate significant sales, with estimates of $36.5 billion in 2025, reflecting a 99% year-on-year growth for the diabetes version and a 175% growth for the weight loss version [15][17]. - The report notes active licensing and collaboration in the industry, with significant deals such as a $1.5 billion agreement between Saint's RNAi therapy and Genentech, and various other collaborations involving companies like Jichuan Pharmaceutical and Baiyunguan [18][20]. Market Performance Summary - The overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is reported at 29.6 times earnings, ranking 13th among 31 sectors [4][14]. - The performance of various sub-sectors includes: - Raw materials (+0.6%) - Traditional Chinese Medicine (+2.6%) - Chemical preparations (-0.8%) - Medical devices (+0.1%) [4][3]. Key Events and Developments - The report emphasizes the importance of the new plan for traditional Chinese medicine, which includes goals such as establishing 60 high-standard raw material production bases and developing 10 major traditional Chinese medicine products by 2030 [12][11]. - Notable company developments include: - Eli Lilly's projected revenue growth driven by Tirzepatide [15]. - And the announcement of significant profit forecasts from Heptares Pharmaceuticals, indicating a shift towards profitability [16]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic companies related to traditional Chinese medicine, such as Zoli Pharmaceutical and Yunnan Baiyao, as well as innovative drug companies like Heng Rui Pharmaceutical and Bai Jie Shen Zhou [2][18].