1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the primary market, the net supply of ordinary credit bonds increased compared to the previous period, while the net supply of bank perpetual and secondary capital bonds (two - tiered perpetual bonds, "二永债") turned negative due to no issuance this period [4]. - In the secondary market, yields mainly declined, and credit spreads mostly widened. 3 - year ordinary credit bonds, 5 - year financial bonds, and weak - quality urban investment bonds performed well. The turnover rate of ordinary credit bonds and bank perpetual bonds decreased, while that of bank secondary capital bonds increased [4]. - For credit strategies, it is advisable to moderately extend the duration to 3 - 5 years for carry trades, and also focus on short - to - medium - term coupon - bearing assets and the potential cost - effectiveness of ETF component bonds. For two - tiered perpetual bonds, it is recommended to be cautious and wait for opportunities for valuation recovery or increased supply [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Ordinary Credit Bonds - Supply increased compared to the previous period, with the issuance amount reaching 357.3 billion yuan and net financing of 255.1 billion yuan. Both industrial and urban investment bonds saw an increase in issuance and net financing. The issuance of industrial bonds increased to 204.6 billion yuan, and net financing rose to 146.5 billion yuan. The issuance of urban investment bonds increased to 152.7 billion yuan, and net financing reached 108.6 billion yuan, the highest since 2024 [4]. - The weighted issuance term increased to 2.89 years (previously 2.76 years). The weighted issuance terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds also increased [15]. - The credit bond bid - cap minus the coupon rate rose from 0.37% to 0.43%, and the subscription multiple increased from 2.52 to 2.82, indicating increased subscription enthusiasm [21]. 3.1.2 Bank Two - Tiered Perpetual Bonds - There was no issuance of bank two - tiered perpetual bonds this period, and the net financing scale turned negative. Two secondary capital bonds matured, with net financing of - 7 billion yuan, and one perpetual bond matured, with net financing of - 10 billion yuan [4]. 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Overall Yield and Credit Spread - Yields mainly declined, with 3 - year ordinary credit bonds, 5 - year financial bonds, and weak - quality urban investment bonds performing better. For example, among 3 - year ordinary credit bonds, the AA - rated extendible industrial bonds had the largest decline of - 5.34BP [4]. - Credit spreads mostly widened, except for a small number of varieties such as 1 - year commercial financial bonds, some weak - quality urban investment bonds, and 10 - year two - tiered perpetual bonds, which saw a slight narrowing. The 5 - year AA - rated urban investment bonds performed best with a - 1.24BP change, while the 5 - year high - grade ordinary credit bonds had a relatively large widening [4]. 3.2.2 Urban Investment Bonds - Yields in various regions mostly declined, and credit spreads mostly widened. Weak - quality urban investment bonds performed better. For example, in Anhui, the yields of AA - rated and AA(2) - rated urban investment bonds decreased by - 1.76BP and - 6.33BP respectively in the past week [59]. - The turnover rate of urban investment bonds in different regions showed different trends, and the trading volume also varied [62][65]. 3.2.3 Industrial Bonds - Yields in various industries showed differentiation, and credit spreads generally widened. For example, in the steel industry, the AA - rated industrial bonds' yields decreased by - 2.30BP in the past week, while in the real estate industry, the AA - rated industrial bonds' yields increased by 4.80BP [68]. - The turnover rate and trading volume of industrial bonds in different industries also showed different characteristics [70][73]. 3.2.4 Financial Bonds - Yields mostly declined, credit spreads generally widened, and the performance of excess spreads was differentiated. For bank secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds, yields of different ratings and bank types showed different degrees of decline, and credit spreads and excess spreads also changed accordingly [93]. 3.3 Stock Bond Distribution - Currently, most yields are distributed within 2.4%. The average yield distributions of industrial bonds in various industries and urban investment bonds in different regions are presented in detail in the report, with most yields concentrated in a relatively low range [105][106][108].

Group 1: Election Context - The Japanese House of Representatives election on February 8, 2026, will significantly impact the political landscape and debt risk in Japan[1] - The ruling coalition, consisting of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party, holds 233 seats, while the opposition consists of the Center-Left Reform Alliance with 172 seats[3] - Current polls indicate a 99% probability that Prime Minister Kishi will remain in office, with an 81% chance that the LDP will secure over 250 seats[3] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Outlook - Post-election, Japan's macroeconomic policy will continue to favor expansionary fiscal measures, but with a more cautious approach to avoid a "Truss moment" scenario[2] - The LDP's proposed tax cuts, particularly a two-year suspension of the food tax, could create a fiscal gap of ¥5 trillion, representing 17% of new bond issuance[5] - Japan's fiscal deficit is projected to reach ¥40 trillion in 2025, with total government debt expected to be 230% of GDP[5] Group 3: Debt Risk Assessment - Japan's sovereign debt risk is relatively low, with a net international investment position of 84% of GDP, indicating a strong asset position[5] - The structure of Japanese debt ownership shows that only 14% is held by foreign investors, with the Bank of Japan holding 46%[5] - The potential for external spillover risks from Japan's debt situation will depend on the election outcome and subsequent government policies[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical sector, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the industry, suggesting it will outperform the overall market [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the commercialization of innovative drugs, combined with licensing income, is expected to lead to profitability for several companies in 2025, including BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and others [1][9]. - The Pharma sub-sector is projected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 15-20% in 2025 for companies like Hansoh Pharmaceutical and China Biologic Products, with a significant revenue increase expected for 3SBio due to a major business development deal with Pfizer [2][10]. - The CXO sector is also expected to show strong performance, with companies like WuXi AppTec forecasting a revenue increase of approximately 15.84% and a net profit growth of about 102.65% in 2025 [3][11]. - In the medical services sector, the report notes that valuations are at historical lows, with a projected revenue growth of 13% for GuoShengTang in 2025, emphasizing the importance of overseas business expansion and AI integration in traditional Chinese medicine [4][12]. Summary by Sections Innovative Drugs - The report anticipates that several innovative drug companies will reach profitability in 2025 due to increased commercialization and business development income [9][15]. Pharma - The Pharma sub-sector is expected to see a revenue growth of 15-20% in 2025 for key players, with 3SBio projected to achieve over 100% growth due to a significant partnership with Pfizer [2][10]. CXO - WuXi AppTec is expected to report a revenue of approximately 454.56 billion RMB in 2025, with a net profit growth of around 102.65% [3][11]. Medical Services - GuoShengTang is projected to have a revenue growth of 13% in 2025, with a focus on overseas acquisitions and AI applications in traditional medicine [4][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the aviation sector, indicating a potential "golden era" for airlines due to improving demand and supply constraints [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights India's potential reduction in Russian oil imports, shifting towards sourcing from non-sanctioned countries like the US and Venezuela, which may impact shipping dynamics [2]. - The report emphasizes the strengthening of the shipbuilding sector, with recommendations for companies like China Shipbuilding and China Power, as the dollar strengthens [2]. - The report notes that VLCC freight rates remain high, with a slight increase of 2% week-on-week, indicating a complex interplay between supply and demand in the oil shipping market [2]. - The aviation sector is expected to see significant improvements in profitability due to historical high passenger load factors and a growing trend in international travel [2]. - The express delivery industry faces uncertainties in demand and regulatory policies, but leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express are expected to maintain their market share and profitability [2]. Summary by Sections Shipping and Oil Transportation - VLCC freight rates have shown a week-on-week increase of 2%, with current rates at $124,743 per day, while Suezmax and Aframax rates have decreased by 3% and 7% respectively [2]. - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on shipping rates, particularly in the context of the Middle East and the Black Sea region [2]. Aviation - The aviation sector is poised for a significant turnaround, with airlines expected to benefit from increased capacity allocation to international routes and a favorable oil price environment [2]. - Companies such as China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key players to watch in this sector [2]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is characterized by a concentration of market share among leading firms, with ZTO Express and YTO Express being noted for their resilience and growth potential [2]. - The report suggests that despite uncertainties, the competitive landscape will favor established players [2]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic have shown resilience, with a reported increase of 2.27% and 4.75% respectively in recent weeks [2]. - The report identifies two main investment themes in the highway sector: high dividend yields and potential value management opportunities [2].

Election Context - The Japanese House of Representatives election on February 8, 2026, will significantly impact the political landscape and debt risk in Japan[1] - The ruling coalition, consisting of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party, holds 233 seats, while the opposition coalition has 172 seats[2] - Current polls show Prime Minister Kishi's approval rating at 66%, with the LDP's support at 36%[2] Election Outcomes - Three potential scenarios exist for the election results: 1. LDP gains a solid majority (over 261 seats), reducing the need for aggressive fiscal stimulus[2] 2. LDP sees a marginal increase in seats, maintaining a need for cooperation with opposition parties, leading to moderate fiscal policies[2] 3. LDP loses seats, increasing political uncertainty and fiscal cliff risks[2] Fiscal Policy Post-Election - Post-election, Japan's macroeconomic policy will remain focused on expansionary fiscal measures, but with a more cautious approach to avoid a "Truss moment"[3] - Key commitments include a two-year suspension of food tax, which could create a fiscal gap of approximately 5 trillion yen annually, representing 17% of new bond issuance[4] Debt Risk Assessment - Japan's government debt is projected to reach 230% of GDP by 2025, with interest payments constituting 1.49% of GDP in 2024[4] - The fiscal deficit for 2025 is estimated at 40 trillion yen, with total revenues of 93 trillion yen and expenditures of 134 trillion yen[4] - Japan's net international investment position is strong, at 84% of GDP, indicating lower sovereign debt risk despite high debt levels[4] Market Implications - The election outcome will influence the external spillover risks associated with Japanese debt, particularly in terms of yen asset volatility and global liquidity[4] - The Bank of Japan's response to potential fiscal-driven yield increases will be crucial in managing market stability[4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Report's Core View - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period increased significantly compared to the previous period, and it is expected to decline in the next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period shortened compared to the previous period, and the issuance spreads of 10/30-year local government bonds over the same-term treasury bonds increased, with the overall multiples rising. The issuance progress of new general bonds in 2026 exceeded that of the same period in 2025 but was slower than that in 2024, while the issuance progress of new special bonds was faster. The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in Q1 2026 is comparable to that in the same period in 2025, with larger planned issuance scales in January and March 2026 due to the late Spring Festival. The current 20 - 30Y local government bonds still have certain cost - effectiveness [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. The current issuance volume of local government bonds increased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds in the current period (2026.2.2 - 2026.2.8) was 5796.73 billion yuan/5789.27 billion yuan (compared to 4392.75 billion yuan/3108.54 billion yuan in the previous period), and it is expected to be 3221.36 billion yuan/3204.98 billion yuan in the next period (2026.2.9 - 2026.2.15). The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period was 16.12 years, shorter than 17.31 years in the previous period. The issuance spreads of 10/30-year local government bonds over the same - term treasury bonds increased to 16.63/19.59BP, and the overall multiples increased (20.8 times and 21.2 times in the current period, compared to 19.7 times and 19.1 times in the previous period) [2][9][11]. - As of February 6, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 17.0% and 11.4% of the annual quota (calculated based on the 2025 quota), and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 24.7% and 15.8%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2025 was 14.0%/4.8% and 15.7%/6.1%, and in 2024 it was 21.6%/5.6% and 21.6%/5.6% [2][13][16]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in Q1 2026 is 248.85 billion yuan, comparable to the same period in 2025. As of February 6, 2026, 31 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 248.85 billion yuan. The planned issuance scales in January, February, and March 2026 are 84.44 billion yuan (actual issuance of 86.33 billion yuan), 68.32 billion yuan (57.97 billion yuan has been issued in the first week of February, and a total of 90.18 billion yuan is expected to be issued including the next week's forecast), and 96.09 billion yuan, compared to 39.20 billion yuan, 115.99 billion yuan, and 80.81 billion yuan in the same regions in the same period last year [2][23][28]. - The issuance of special new special bonds in the current period was 4.07 billion yuan, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts was 30.24 billion yuan and 0 billion yuan respectively. As of February 6, 2026, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds in 2026 was 6.94 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 55.30 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 27.7%; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts was 0.36 billion yuan [2][21]. 2. The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed for 10Y and widened for 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate increased - As of February 6, 2026, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 19.98BP and 21.90BP, narrowing by 0.90BP and widening by 5.80BP respectively compared to January 30, 2026, and were at the 53.40% and 85.70% historical quantiles since 2023 [2][35][36]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.78%, up from 0.66% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in Shandong, Tianjin, Liaoning and other regions were better than the national average [2][41]. - Currently, 20 - 30Y local government bonds still have certain cost - effectiveness. Taking the 10 - year local government bond as an observation anchor, the top of the spread adjustment since 2018 may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the top of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the bottom may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

2026年02月08日 《房地产行业 2026 年投资策略： 潮平待 风起，扬帆更远航》 2025/11/17 《好房子的另类破局之道，引领核心城市 五重共振——好房子专题报告系列之三》 2025/09/10 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 1. 行业数据 1.1 新房成交量 1.1.1 成交周环比：上周 34 城周成交环比下降 6.9%，一二线环比下降 商业不动产 REITs 密集申报， 二手住房用于保租房 — 地产及物管行业周报（2026/1/31-2026/2/6） 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 地产行业数据：新房、二手房成交环比均回落，新房成交推盘比回升。上周(1.31- 0 2.6)34 个重点城市新房合计成 ...

证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究成功费 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 2026年02月08日 相关研究 联系人 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 系统谋划重点领域重大项目投资,发挥央国企 扩投资作用 ──申万宏源建筑周报（20260202-20260206） 本期投资后了 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数-1.81%，沪深 300 指 0 数-1.33%，相对收益为-0.48pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为装饰 幕墙 (+2.17%)、钢结构 (+2.05%)、生态园林 (+0.55%)，对应行业 内三个公司：名雕股份 (+31.83%)、杭萧钢构 (+9.62%)、国晟科技 (+25.29%)；年涨幅最大的三个子行业分别是钢结构（+23.50%）、专 业工程（+19.18%）、装饰幕墙（+ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the recovery potential of quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [2][31]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector is approaching a bottom in its fundamentals after a deep adjustment, with recent central government policies aimed at stabilizing the market. The report emphasizes the importance of quality real estate companies, predicting that their profit recovery will occur sooner and be more resilient [2][31]. - The report recommends several quality real estate companies and commercial real estate firms, including Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, Greentown China, China Jinmao, and Poly Development, as well as commercial real estate firms like New City Holdings and China Resources Land [2][31]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 31 to February 6, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.974 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 6.9%. The transaction volume in first and second-tier cities decreased by 3.1%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a significant drop of 39.4% [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home transactions in February increased by 327.2%, with first and second-tier cities up by 347.8% and third and fourth-tier cities up by 168.9% [4][10]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.198 million square meters, also down by 6.9% week-on-week. However, year-to-date transactions showed a 27.4% increase compared to the previous year [10][31]. Inventory and Supply - The report notes that 15 cities had a total of 290,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.62 times. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.525 million square meters, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.52% [21][31]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights significant policy developments, including the acceleration of commercial real estate REITs applications, with over 10 applications submitted to exchanges as of February 6, 2026. Additionally, Shanghai is advancing the acquisition of second-hand homes for rental housing, with pilot areas identified [31][32]. - Various regions, including Tianjin, Sichuan, and Hainan, have adjusted the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to no less than 30% [31][32].

行 业 及 产 业 建筑装饰 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 08 日 系统谋划重点领域重大项目投资，发挥央国企 扩投资作用 看好 ——申万宏源建筑周报（20260202-20260206） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 评 - ⚫ 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数-1.81%，沪深 300 指 数-1.33%，相对收益为-0.48pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为装饰 幕墙（+2.17%）、钢结构（+2.05%）、生态 ...