Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company has exceeded performance expectations, with shipbuilding and diesel generator contributions showing significant elasticity. The dividend yield is seen as a protective moat [6] - The company expects a 2025 net profit of 1.355 billion yuan, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, with a strong Q4 performance [8] - The shipbuilding segment is projected to benefit from declining steel prices, with expected revenue growth of 14% in 2025 [8] - The diesel generator segment shows strong market competitiveness, with several key projects won, indicating robust performance [8] - The company's diversified operations and global layout provide stability against market fluctuations [8] - The dividend payout ratio is projected at 42%, leading to an estimated dividend yield of approximately 3.7% to 4.1% for 2025 and 2026 [8] - The 2025 net profit forecast has been raised to 1.4 billion yuan, with maintained projections for 2026 and 2027 [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to be 117.803 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.5% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.355 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 18% [7] - Earnings per share are forecasted to be 1.04 yuan in 2025, increasing to 1.13 yuan in 2026 [7] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 15.9% in 2025 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [6]. Core Insights - The company, Fulian Transportation, has announced an expected increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, projected to be between 165 million to 196 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 35% to 60% [4]. - The growth in performance is primarily attributed to the confirmation of land reserves and an increase in investment income, exceeding expectations [4]. - The company is strategically expanding into low-altitude logistics and has formed a joint venture with a leading manufacturer of unmanned logistics vehicles, which is expected to open new growth avenues [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 851 million yuan, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.5% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is forecasted at 180 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 47.3% [5]. - The company anticipates a steady increase in net profit over the next few years, with projections of 226 million yuan in 2026 and 277 million yuan in 2027 [5][7].

证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 02 日 低波因子表现回归、形成共振 ——量化资产配置月报 202602 化 策 略 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 权 益 量 化 研 究 量 相关研究 - | 1. 低波因子表现回归、形成共振 4 | | | --- | --- | | 2. 各宏观指标方向与资产配置观点 6 | | | 2.1 经济前瞻指标：维持下行判断 6 | | | 2.2 流动性：维持略偏松 9 | | | 2.3 综合信用指标 | 10 | | 2.4 大类配置观点：小幅配置美股 | 11 | | 3. 市场关注点：PPI 关注度维持最高 11 | | | 4. 宏观视角下的行业选择 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the REITs market started the year strongly, with the CSI REITs Total Return Index rising 4.2%, outperforming the CSI 300. Various asset REITs indices generally increased, with IDC, consumption, industrial parks, utilities, and warehousing leading the gains. The liquidity of the market improved, and most asset valuations significantly increased, while the REITs dividend yield narrowed compared to long - term bonds [4]. - The first batch of 8 commercial real - estate REITs were declared, showing six characteristics: diverse asset types, wide geographical distribution, state - owned dominance with participation from private and foreign enterprises, large issuance scale, different valuation safety margins for different asset types, and differentiated operating performance [4]. - In January, there were no new REITs issuances in the primary market, but two REITs' additional issuance shares were listed. China Nuclear Clean Energy REIT will be listed on February 2nd, and the offline issuance part will be fully tradable on the listing day. Five infrastructure REITs projects were terminated, and Hua'an Waigaoqiao REIT announced a planned additional issuance [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Batch of Commercial Real - Estate REITs Accepted, Six Characteristics Reviewed - **Asset Types and Geographical Distribution**: The first batch of 8 commercial real - estate REITs involve various asset types such as office buildings, commercial retail, and hotels, with the first - time appearance of mixed - asset offerings in public REITs. The projects are located in first - tier, new first - tier, provincial capitals, and regional core cities, and Hua'an Jinjiang Commercial REIT's underlying assets are mainly in second - and third - tier cities [10]. - **Fund - raising Scale and Valuation**: The average planned fund - raising amount of the 8 REITs is 3.934 billion yuan, much higher than that of infrastructure REITs in the pipeline. The valuation safety margin of commercial retail is relatively high, while that of office buildings is low [13]. - **Operation Performance**: Commercial retail has a stable high occupancy rate, office buildings show regional differentiation, and the hotel business has large operating fluctuations [13]. - **Individual Project Analysis**: Analyze the characteristics, performance, and risks of 8 REITs projects such as CICC Vipshop Commercial REIT, Huaxia CapitaLand Commercial REIT, etc. [15][19][22] - **Listed Companies' Plans**: As of January 30, 2026, 3 A - share listed companies (Poly Developments, Maoye Commercial, and Everbright Jiabao) announced plans to apply for commercial real - estate REITs, and Poly Developments' project has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [50]. 3.2 January Market Flourished, with Differentiated Gains under Performance Growth - **Overall Market Performance**: In January 2026, the equity market was mediocre, the CSI 300 Total Return Index rose 1.8%, and the CSI Dividend Total Return Index rose 3.8%. The CSI REITs Total Return Index rose 4.2%, outperforming the CSI 300 and the CSI Dividend Total Return Index. Long - term bond yields declined [58]. - **REITs Asset Performance**: All types of REITs assets rose in January. IDC, consumption, industrial parks, utilities, and warehousing had the top five gains. The gains of utilities and consumption REITs indices widened significantly compared to December 2025 [64]. - **Individual Bond Performance**: 96% of REITs bonds rose, and only 3 fell. Hua'an Bailian Consumption REIT led the gains and triggered a trading halt [69]. - **Liquidity**: The average daily turnover rate of Shanghai and Shenzhen REITs was 0.55%, up 0.15 pcts month - on - month. The liquidity of IDC and consumption REITs improved significantly, while that of rent - protected housing and energy improved limitedly, and the trading of transportation REITs was still dull [74]. - **Dividend Yield and Valuation**: As of January 30, 2026, the dividend yield of equity - type REITs was 4.46%, and that of concession - type REITs was 8.58%. The spread between equity - type REITs and 10 - year treasury bonds narrowed, while the spread with CSI Dividend stocks widened. The P/NAV of equity - type REITs was at the 87% quantile, and the P/FFO of concession - type REITs was at the 52% quantile [75][85][86]. - **Internal Rate of Return (IRR)**: The IRR of equity - type REITs was 3.8%, and that of concession - type REITs was 5.0%, both lower than the previous period [96]. 3.3 No New Issuance This Month, China Nuclear Clean Energy to Be Listed on February 2nd - **Primary Market and Additional Issuance**: In January 2026, there were no new REITs issuances in the primary market, and the additional issuance shares of Huaxia Fund China Resources Youchao REIT and AVIC Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT were listed [100]. - **New Listing**: China Nuclear Clean Energy REIT will be listed on February 2nd, and the offline issuance part will be fully tradable on the listing day [104]. - **Queuing Projects**: Two projects (China International Capital Corporation Xiamen Torch Industrial Park REIT and AVIC Beijing Changping Rent - protected Housing REIT) are under the first - round inquiry, and 5 projects are terminated [107]. - **Bidding Projects**: Hubei Cultural Tourism Group Co., Ltd. plans to issue public REITs for its cultural and tourism assets, and Huatai - PineBridge Fund won the bid for the public REIT project of Shanghai Real Estate (Group) Co., Ltd. [111] 3.4 JD Warehousing to Be Unlocked on February 8th, Hua'an Waigaoqiao Plans Additional Issuance - **Unlocking and Additional Issuance**: The strategic placement shares of Harvest JD Warehousing REIT will be unlocked on February 8th. Hua'an Waigaoqiao REIT plans to conduct an additional issuance and purchase two real - estate projects in Pudong New Area, Shanghai [116]. - **Market - making Services**: In the first half of January, Industrial Securities provided market - making services for some public REITs. Huaxia Nanjing Transportation Expressway REIT's original equity holder changed the use of the recovered funds [120].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [6]. Core Insights - The company, Fulin Transportation, has announced an expected increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a range of CNY 165 million to CNY 196 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 35% to 60% [4]. - The growth in performance is attributed to the confirmation of land reserves and an increase in investment income, exceeding expectations [4]. - The traditional road transportation business remains stable, with significant operational assets including 29 passenger stations and over 6,000 operational vehicles [6]. - The company is strategically positioning itself in the low-altitude logistics sector, leveraging partnerships to enhance efficiency and reduce costs in mountainous regions of Sichuan [6]. - A joint venture with a leading manufacturer of autonomous logistics vehicles aims to accelerate the company's entry into the unmanned freight sector, potentially creating a new growth trajectory [6]. - The financial forecasts for 2025 to 2027 indicate a steady increase in net profit, with projections of CNY 180 million, CNY 226 million, and CNY 277 million respectively, alongside a corresponding decrease in price-to-earnings ratios [5][6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at CNY 851 million, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.5% [5]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 19.1% in 2025 to 25.5% by 2027, reflecting operational efficiencies [5]. - Return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 10.4% in 2025 to 13.0% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [5].

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 4118 | -0.96 | 3.85 | -0.44 | | 深证综指 | 2684 | -0.78 | 5.71 | -2.27 | | 风格指数 | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (％) | | | | | 大盘指数 | -0.81 | 0.63 | 13.2 | | 中盘指数 | -1.67 | 10.42 | 31.3 | | 小盘指数 | -1.05 | 8.78 | 24.7 | 涨幅居前 行业(％) 昨日 近 1 个月 近 6 个月 通信设备 4.32 4.7 87.85 种植业 3.61 12.69 19.72 渔业 3.35 10.96 8.63 影视院线 2.39 12.32 5.47 橡胶 2.07 10.83 17.04 跌幅居前 行业(％) 昨日 近 1 个月 近 6 个月 贵金属 -8.87 59.71 116.25 工 ...

Group 1 - The market sentiment indicator as of January 30 is at 2.6, a slight increase from 2.35 the previous week, indicating overall stability in sentiment with a bullish model perspective [2][9]. - The price-volume consistency indicator remains high, suggesting a strong correlation between market attention and stock price movements, reflecting an active market sentiment [13][16]. - The trading volume of the entire A-share market increased by 9.44% week-on-week, with an average daily trading volume of 30,632.46 billion yuan, indicating a slight recovery in market activity [19]. Group 2 - The short-term score rankings show that the oil and petrochemical, construction materials, non-ferrous metals, light industry manufacturing, and communication sectors are leading, with both oil and petrochemical and construction materials scoring 98.31, the highest among sectors [43][44]. - The industry crowding indicator shows a positive correlation with weekly price changes, with high crowding sectors like oil and petrochemical leading in gains, while low crowding sectors like commercial retail and environmental protection lag behind [46][50]. - The model indicates a preference for small-cap and growth styles, with the 5-day RSI showing a rapid decline relative to the 20-day RSI, suggesting potential weakening of signals in the near term [43][53].

行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 煤炭开采 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 2026 年 02 月 01 日 节前产地供给偏紧，补库需求支撑 下，预计煤价仍将上涨 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2026.1.24-2026.1.30） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 动力煤方面，截至 1 月 30 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口 Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 527、609、692 元/吨，环比上涨 13、10、7 元/吨。供给 端，据中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 159.17 万吨，环比上周增加 0.1 万吨，增幅 0.04%，同比增加 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the industry but includes detailed valuation metrics for various indices and sectors, indicating a mixed outlook based on historical percentiles [2][5][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant valuation metrics for various indices, with the CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 22.5x and PB at 1.9x, indicating it is at the 83rd and 50th historical percentiles respectively [2][5]. - The report identifies sectors with high PE and PB valuations, such as real estate, automation equipment, and electronics, suggesting potential investment opportunities [2][7]. - The report tracks the mid-cycle economic conditions across various industries, noting price fluctuations in the photovoltaic and battery sectors, as well as trends in consumer electronics and financial services [2][3][6]. Valuation Summary A-Share Valuation - The CSI All Share PE is 22.5x, with a PB of 1.9x, positioned at the 83rd and 50th historical percentiles [2][5]. - The Shanghai Composite Index PE is 11.7x, PB is 1.3x, at the 61st and 41st percentiles [2][5]. - The ChiNext Index PE is 42.6x, PB is 5.7x, at the 41st and 67th percentiles [2][5]. Industry Valuation - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile include real estate, automation equipment, and electronics (semiconductors) [2][7]. - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th percentile include industrial metals and electronics (semiconductors) [2][7]. - The white goods industry is noted for having both PE and PB valuations below the 15th percentile, indicating potential undervaluation [2][7]. Mid-Cycle Economic Tracking - In the new energy sector, the report notes a 9.2% decline in upstream polysilicon futures prices, while downstream battery prices increased by 3.4% [2][3]. - The semiconductor sector shows a 0.5% increase in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, indicating positive momentum [3]. - The insurance sector reports a 7.4% year-on-year growth in premium income, although growth has slowed compared to previous months [3]. Sector-Specific Insights - The report details fluctuations in the steel and cement markets, with rebar prices down by 0.2% and cement prices down by 0.6% [3]. - In the consumer sector, pork prices have decreased by 5.2%, reflecting supply pressures ahead of the Spring Festival [3]. - The report also highlights a 50.9% year-on-year increase in new wind power installations, indicating strong growth in renewable energy [2][3].

宏 观 研 究 2026 年地方"两会"跟踪 国 内 经 济 相关研究 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 侯倩楠 A0230524080006 houqn@swsresearch.com 联系人 社零方面，多数省份设定的目标高于 2025 年实际增速。新疆、河南、海南等地将社零增速目 标定在 6%及以上；河北、吉林定在 5%左右。贵州、甘肃、辽宁及重庆的目标设定为 4%及以 上。与 2025 年目标相比，河南、新疆目标分别上调 0.5 个百分点和 1 个百分点。与 2025 年 地方实际社零增速相比，河北、吉林、河南、广东等明显调高社零增速目标。 侯倩楠 A0230524080006 houqn@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 01 日 地方"两会"观察：二十省市，三大特征 ——2026 年地方"两会"跟踪 1 月下旬以来，地方"两会"进入密集召开期。各地 2026 年 GDP 增速设定情况如何，各地 2026 年政府工作报告定量与定性分析呈现 ...