Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [4][44]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in pig prices leading to accelerated capacity reduction in the breeding sector, suggesting a left-side investment opportunity in pig farming [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the potential of the artificial cultivation of Cordyceps sinensis, with a market size exceeding 30 billion, and suggests focusing on companies involved in this sector [4][5]. - The report also notes that the pet food sector is experiencing a positive trend, with a year-on-year increase in online sales [4][5]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The report indicates that pig prices are currently fluctuating at a low level, with a national average selling price of 11.41 yuan/kg as of December 21, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.1% [4]. - Breeding farms are facing continuous losses, with average losses per head reaching approximately 101.5 yuan for farms with fewer than 50 sows and 119.8 yuan for larger farms [4][5]. - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and DeKang Agriculture for potential investment opportunities [4][5]. Pet Food Sector - The pet food industry has shown resilience, with a year-on-year growth of 17% in online sales during October and November, totaling 7.02 billion yuan [4][5]. - Specific companies like GuaiBao Pet and ZhongChong Co. have reported significant growth rates in their sales [4][5]. Chicken Farming - The report notes a rebound in the prices of white feather broilers, with the average selling price for broiler chicks at 3.39 yuan each, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.80% [4][5]. - The report suggests that the supply of broilers will remain ample, and it is essential to focus on leading companies in the sector [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a left-side investment strategy in the pig farming sector due to ongoing losses and capacity reduction [4][5]. - It also suggests monitoring the artificial cultivation of Cordyceps and the pet food market for potential investment opportunities [4][5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [3][11]. Core Insights - ByteDance's AI application commercialization and MaaS (Model as a Service) are expected to accelerate, potentially forcing major internet companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu to expedite their AI strategies and monetization efforts [3]. - The demand for self-indulgent consumption among the post-90s and post-00s demographics is outpacing the overall domestic demand, with a focus on gaming, music, and trendy products [3]. - The gaming sector is anticipated to rebound quickly due to the upcoming Spring Festival, driven by younger audiences and a decline in global app store bargaining power [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - ByteDance's advancements in AI and cloud services are likely to challenge competitors to enhance their AI capabilities and monetization strategies [3]. - The market remains optimistic about the growth of self-indulgent consumption, particularly in gaming and entertainment sectors, despite concerns over product cycle fluctuations [3]. Gaming Sector - The gaming industry is expected to see significant growth during the Spring Festival, with key products like Giant Network's "Supernatural" projected to achieve new highs in revenue and daily active users [3]. - Recommended stocks include Giant Network, 37 Interactive Entertainment, and Bilibili, with a focus on companies with new product reserves and low PE ratios [3]. Other Consumption Areas - In the music sector, subscription models are showing strong user retention and cash flow, with NetEase Cloud Music still in its growth phase [3]. - For trendy products, Pop Mart's revenue from single IPs has shown significant growth, supported by product innovation and market expansion [3]. Advertising Sector - Focus on the sustainability of advertising investments in the internet sector, with potential growth from acquisitions and high dividend yields providing a safety margin [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the cosmetics and medical beauty industry, highlighting strong performance in the sector [2]. Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector outperformed the market, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index rising by 2.9% from December 12 to December 19, 2025, surpassing the Shenwan A Index by 2.4 percentage points [3][4]. - Lin Qingxuan, a leading high-end plant skincare brand, is set to launch its IPO in Hong Kong, with a focus on its core product, camellia oil, which has sold over 30 million bottles [9]. - Minooxidil products from Mandi International dominate the hair growth market, with a market share of approximately 57% in the hair loss treatment sector [10][13]. - Proya has invested in a cosmetic raw material company, Huaguan Biotechnology, to enhance its whitening product offerings, targeting a market expected to exceed 150 billion yuan by 2027 [19][22]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector showed strong performance, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index increasing by 2.9% during the specified period, outperforming the Shenwan A Index [3][4]. Company Highlights - Lin Qingxuan's product matrix includes 188 SKUs, with camellia oil contributing 37% to revenue in 2024, while offline channels are expected to generate 40.9% of revenue [9]. - Mandi International's revenue grew from 982 million yuan in 2022 to approximately 1.455 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 21.7% [11]. - Proya's strategic investment in Huaguan Biotechnology aims to capture a significant share of the whitening market, with new product launches and patent approvals [19][22]. Market Trends - The Chinese consumer healthcare market is projected to grow from 931.3 billion yuan in 2018 to 1.642 trillion yuan in 2024, driven by increased health awareness and digital transformation [12]. - The hair health management market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17.7% from 2018 to 2024, indicating strong demand for hair loss treatments [12][13]. - The overall retail sales of cosmetics in China reached 428.5 billion yuan in the first eleven months of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [17][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a high-elasticity player in the antimony market, with expected rapid growth as multiple incremental mining projects begin to release production. The company focuses on mineral resource development, with plans both domestically and internationally. It currently operates three production mines in China and one in Ethiopia, with further projects expected to drive growth [6][8]. - Global antimony supply and demand are tightening, leading to strong antimony prices. The company’s antimony business is expected to benefit from this price strength, with domestic antimony ingot production down 15.5% year-on-year as of November 2025. The average domestic antimony price has increased by 41.29% compared to 2024 [8]. - Gold prices are on the rise, positively impacting the company's projects such as the Takin and Nibao gold mines. The Nibao project has significant gold reserves and is expected to contribute to revenue starting in 2027-2028 [8]. - The company's forecast for net profit in 2025 has been raised to 988 million yuan, with projections for 2026 and 2027 at 1.214 billion and 1.683 billion yuan, respectively. Corresponding P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are estimated at 22, 18, and 13 [8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1.614 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.191 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 85.3% in 2024 and 42.2% in 2027 [7][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase significantly, from 253 million yuan in 2024 to 1.683 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 242.9% in 2024 and 38.7% in 2027 [7][10]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 54.6% in 2024 to 59.3% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [7].

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 证券分析师 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 22 日 美国通胀降温助推降息预期，金属 板块景气持续 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251215-20251219 究 报 告 相关研究 - 、 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.03%，深证成指下跌 0.89%，沪深 300 下跌 0.28%，有色金属 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3890, with a slight increase of 0.36% [1] - The Shenzhen Composite Index also saw a rise of 0.98%, indicating a positive market sentiment [1] - Large-cap indices showed a modest increase of 0.3% yesterday, while mid-cap and small-cap indices performed better with increases of 0.91% and 0.8% respectively over the same period [1] Group 2: Industry Performance - The home decoration industry led the gains with a 3.33% increase yesterday, reflecting strong demand [1] - The energy sector also performed well, with a 3.26% increase, although it has seen a decline of 3.9% over the past month [1] - Conversely, the electronic components sector faced significant declines, with a drop of 3.46% yesterday and a 69.42% decrease over the past six months [1] Group 3: Future Industry Trends - The report highlights key future industries including quantum technology, bio-manufacturing, hydrogen energy, and brain-computer interfaces, emphasizing recent breakthroughs and commercialization efforts [10][8] - In quantum technology, a significant academic breakthrough was reported with the development of an 11-qubit silicon-based processor, marking progress in semiconductor quantum computing [10][8] - The bio-manufacturing sector is seeing advancements with AI applications in pharmaceuticals, as a unicorn company plans to raise 2.277 billion HKD for drug development [10][8] Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the hydrogen energy sector, particularly with the launch of the world's largest green hydrogen project, which is expected to drive growth in this area [10][8] - The brain-computer interface technology is advancing with successful clinical trials, indicating a promising future for this field [10][8] - The automotive industry is witnessing the approval of L3 autonomous driving models, which is expected to enhance the market for intelligent vehicles [21][22]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3890 points, with a daily increase of 0.36% and a monthly change of 0.03% [1] - The Shenzhen Composite Index closed at 2465 points, with a daily increase of 0.98% and a monthly change of -0.34% [1] - Large-cap indices showed a slight increase of 0.3% yesterday, while mid-cap and small-cap indices increased by 0.91% and 0.8% respectively [1] Group 2: Industry Performance - The decoration and renovation industry saw a daily increase of 3.33%, but a decline of 7.79% over the past month, while it increased by 30.51% over the past six months [1] - The energy metals sector increased by 3.26% yesterday, with an impressive 85.77% increase over the past six months [1] - The general retail sector increased by 3.22% yesterday, with an 8.93% increase over the past month and an 18.79% increase over the past six months [1] Group 3: Notable Declines - The components sector experienced a decline of 0.74% yesterday, with a 3.46% increase over the past month and a significant 69.42% increase over the past six months [1] - The other electronics sector declined by 0.68% yesterday, with a 42.32% increase over the past six months [1] - State-owned large banks saw a decline of 0.67% yesterday, with a 7.66% increase over the past six months [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period (2025.12.15 - 2025.12.21) decreased significantly compared to the previous period, and the expected issuance and net financing in the next period (2025.12.22 - 2025.12.28) will also decline significantly. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period has lengthened. The issuance of new special bonds has used part of the 500 billion yuan carry - over quota, and the cumulative issuance in the current and next periods exceeds the original quota. The current spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds shows a narrowing trend for the 10Y and a widening trend for the 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate has decreased. Attention should be paid to the cost - effectiveness of 3/10/15Y local government bonds [2]. Summary by Directory 1. The issuance volume of local government bonds in the current period decreased, and the weighted issuance term lengthened - The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds in the current period (2025.12.15 - 2025.12.21) was 40.037 billion yuan/28.157 billion yuan (compared with 106.955 billion yuan/62.187 billion yuan in the previous period), and the expected issuance/net financing in the next period (2025.12.22 - 2025.12.28) is 2.037 billion yuan/- 3.174 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period was 16.15 years, which was longer than 12.52 years in the previous period [2][9]. - As of December 19, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 96.2% and 103.4% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it remains at 96.2% and 103.4%. The cumulative issuance in the current and next periods exceeds the original 4.4 trillion yuan quota by 14.95 billion yuan/15.15 billion yuan. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 92.0%/99.7% and 94.5%/99.8%, and in 2023, it was 97.2%/98.0% and 97.3%/98.1% [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in December 2025 is 176.1 billion yuan in total, of which new special bonds are 58.4 billion yuan. As of December 19, 2025, 17 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 176.1 billion yuan, with new special bonds of 58.4 billion yuan. The previous year's issuance in the same regions was 420.3 billion yuan and 800 million yuan, and the national issuance in the same period of the previous year was 1091.3 billion yuan and 2.11 billion yuan [2]. - In the current period, the issuance of special new special bonds was 1.2 billion yuan, and there was no issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts and repaying existing debts. As of December 19, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 1366.8 billion yuan (1.2 billion yuan in the current period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts was 2000 billion yuan (0 billion yuan in the current period), with the issuance progress reaching 100%, and this year's quota has been fully issued; since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts (possibly from the 500 billion yuan carry - over quota mentioned in the press conference of the Ministry of Finance on October 17) was 287.5 billion yuan (0 billion yuan in the current period) [2]. 2. The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds in the current period narrowed for the 10Y and widened for the 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate decreased - As of December 19, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 22.92BP and 21.48BP respectively, narrowing by 1.12BP and widening by 3.35BP compared with December 12, 2025 (which were 24.04BP and 18.13BP respectively on December 12, 2025), and were at the 72.20% and 83.20% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.77%, a decrease compared with 0.86% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Jilin, and Guizhou were better than the national average [2]. - Regarding the cost - effectiveness of local government bonds, taking 10 - year local government bonds as an observation anchor, since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP higher than the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the top of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the bottom may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

Quantum Technology - The Australian team has developed an 11-qubit silicon-based processor, achieving high-fidelity entanglement across dual-core spin registers, marking a significant academic breakthrough in silicon quantum computing [9][10][12] - The Canadian government has launched the Quantum Leaders Program (CQCP) with an investment of up to CAD 92 million to support local companies in developing industrial-grade fault-tolerant quantum computers [10][11] - The global quantum industry is entering a phase of "technology route differentiation and ecological collaboration," with major players like IBM and Google making significant advancements in superconducting and quantum error correction technologies [13] Biomanufacturing - The AI-driven pharmaceutical company Insilico Medicine is set to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise HKD 2.277 billion, leveraging its Pharma.AI platform for end-to-end drug development [14][16] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released key lists at the 2025 Biomanufacturing Conference, highlighting 28 high-performance bioreactor innovation units and 43 pilot capacity construction platforms [23] Hydrogen Energy and Nuclear Fusion - The Chinese government emphasizes expanding green electricity applications and fostering hydrogen energy as part of its dual carbon goals, with a focus on developing new growth points [25][26] - China Energy Construction has launched the world's largest green hydrogen and ammonia integration project in Jilin, with a total investment of CNY 29.6 billion [34][36] - Trump Media Technology Group has announced a merger with TAE Technologies, aiming to build the world's first commercial nuclear fusion power plant with a capacity of 50 MW by 2026 [33] Brain-Computer Interfaces - The Chinese Academy of Sciences has completed a second invasive brain-computer interface clinical trial, allowing a high-level paraplegic patient to control smart devices using brain signals [40][41] - BrainCo Technology has successfully completed the first clinical trial of its fully implanted brain-computer interface product, which features an internal battery and wireless capabilities [42][43] - The National Medical Products Administration has held a meeting to promote the development of brain-computer interface medical devices, emphasizing safety and effectiveness [47] Embodied Intelligence - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued the first L3 autonomous driving production permits, allowing specific electric vehicle models to conduct trials in designated areas [49] - Daxiao Robotics has launched the open-source "Kairos 3.0" model, which utilizes human-centric data collection techniques to enhance the development of embodied intelligence [50][52] - Moer Thread has introduced a simulation training platform for embodied intelligence, integrating various technologies to improve development efficiency [53] Sixth Generation Mobile Communication (6G) - The 4th 6G Frontier Technology and Trends Forum was held in Beijing, where multiple organizations signed agreements to collaborate on technology sharing and joint research to accelerate the development of the 6G industry [55]

2025 年 12 月 21 日 主题活跃成交回升,关注? III -北交所策略周报（20251215-20251221） 本周策略观点: 本周市场行情: 北交所新股: 新三板动态: 目靖华 A0230124070002 lvjh@swsresearch.com 联系人 吕靖华 A0230124070002 lvjh@swsresearch.com 本周新挂牌 2 家，摘牌 3 家，周新增计划融资 0.52 亿元，完成融资 3.14 亿元。 风险提示: 个股业绩李度波动过大风险，宏观经济下行的风险。 证券分析师 刘靖 A0230512070005 liujing@swsresearch.com 王雨晴 A0230522010003 wangyq@swsresearch.com 郑菁华 A0230525060001 zhengjh@swsresearch.com 汪秉涵 A0230525090003 wangbh@swsresearch.com 研究支持 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 品 相关研究 本周北证 50 指数小幅下跌 0.13%,但成交量环比上升 16%。本周市场活跃度明显上升, ○ 强 ...