FESHING T 2025 年 11 月 04 日 25Q3 需求淡季叠加成本抬升, 业盈利环比走弱,周期有望 -基础化工行业 2025 年三季报总结 证券分析师 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 相关研究 25Q3 油煤中枢环比抬升，成本端压力增加，叠加需求淡季，行业盈利环比承压，在建 工程持续回落。25Q3 传统淡季下游开工降低，整体处于去库状态，叠加能源价格底部 ● 反弹，部分周期品价差高位回落，业绩环比承压。国际贸易环境缓和，国内 "反内卷" 政策信号释放，叠加在建工程持续回落，化工供需平衡表边际修复，景气底部迎来长周 期向上。25Q3 Brent 现货均价为 69.29 美元/桶（YoY-14%，QoQ+2%），动力煤市场 用网址。2018年05月17 0020-59797 0020-596)，（1000年5月），4 润 336 亿元（YoY+10%，QoQ-5%），符合市场预期。成本压力叠加需求淡季，化工盈 利能力环比下滑，毛利率同环比分别+0.4、-0.3pct 至 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its performance relative to the market [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.208 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.02%. However, the third quarter revenue of 860 million yuan showed a decline of 4.68% year-on-year, which was below market expectations [2][3]. - The company is focusing on expanding its investments in low-altitude and AI cloud platforms, which are expected to drive future growth. The report highlights the company's strategic shift towards new emerging sectors, which is anticipated to enhance its core competitiveness [8]. - The report notes that the company's gross profit margin improved to 47.20% in Q3 2025, up by 0.34 percentage points year-on-year, despite a decrease in net profit margin due to increased expense ratios [8]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 4.331 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 32.9%. The net profit is expected to reach 440 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 25.2% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be 0.54 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 74 [4]. - The report anticipates a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with estimates of 620 million yuan in net profit for 2026 and 881 million yuan for 2027 [4][8]. Market Data - As of November 3, 2025, the company's closing price was 40.21 yuan, with a market capitalization of 32.493 billion yuan. The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 8.4 and a dividend yield of 0.32% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 鼎泰高科 (301377) [1] Core Views - The company reported strong Q3 performance with revenue of 5.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.94% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.98% [4] - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 improved to 40.62%, up 5.04 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin reached 19.28%, an increase of 3.99 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The PCB industry is experiencing strong demand, driven by hardware upgrades in AI servers and high-speed switches, leading to a robust order book for the company [7] - The company is accelerating its production capacity for PCB micro-drilling needles, with a current monthly capacity exceeding 100 million units [7] - The acquisition of a German PCB tool manufacturer is expected to enhance the company's global presence and technological capabilities [7] - The profit forecast has been raised, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 now at 395 million, 703 million, and 1.029 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 14.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.13%, and a net profit of 2.82 billion yuan, up 63.94% year-on-year [4] - The projected total revenue for 2025 is 2.051 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 29.8% [6] - The expected gross margin for 2025 is 39.5%, with a net profit margin of 19.28% [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in wind power generation, with a 9.47% year-on-year increase in total electricity generation for the first nine months of 2025, reaching 107.68 billion kWh [7]. - LNG sales have shown signs of recovery in Q3, with a 27.66% increase in wholesale gas sales and an 11.04% increase in LNG sales compared to the previous year [7]. - The company is expected to maintain a new wind power installation capacity of 1GW from 2025 to 2026, which is anticipated to drive long-term stable growth in wind power performance [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company reported total operating revenue of 14.445 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a decrease of 8.51% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 4.23% to 1.559 billion yuan [7]. - The average on-grid electricity price (excluding tax) decreased by 5.4% to 0.415 yuan per kWh in the first nine months of 2025, primarily due to an increase in market-oriented electricity trading [7]. - The financial cost has decreased significantly, with the comprehensive funding cost dropping to 2.41% by the end of September 2025, a reduction of 33 basis points compared to the end of 2024 [7]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 2.431 billion, 2.686 billion, and 3.037 billion yuan, respectively [7][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong Q3 performance with total revenue of 1.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 129%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 570 million yuan, up 308% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [6]. - The new game "杖剑" (Zhang Jian) has shown better-than-expected sustainability in both domestic and overseas markets, contributing significantly to revenue growth [6]. - The company has raised its earnings forecast based on the strong performance of new titles, projecting revenues of 6.27 billion yuan, 7.16 billion yuan, and 7.78 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue (million yuan): - 2024: 3,696 - 2025E: 6,265 - 2026E: 7,156 - 2027E: 7,788 - Year-on-year growth rates (%): - 2025E: 69.5 - 2026E: 14.2 - 2027E: 8.8 - Net profit attributable to shareholders (million yuan): - 2025E: 1,779 - 2026E: 2,008 - 2027E: 2,310 - Gross margin (%): - 2025E: 93.4 - 2026E: 88.2 - 2027E: 89.9 - Return on equity (ROE %): - 2025E: 29.8 - 2026E: 30.2 - 2027E: 31.0 [2][6][8]. Market Data - Closing price (yuan): 452.01 - Market capitalization (million yuan): 32,563 - Dividend yield (%): 2.68 - Price-to-earnings ratio (PE): - 2026E: 16 - 2027E: 14 [3][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's Q3 revenue was 1.38 billion, down 5% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 210 million, down 55% year-on-year, primarily due to non-recurring gains in the same period last year [5] - The company is waiting for a turning point with new products, as existing games have stabilized but are experiencing a decline in revenue [5] - The expansion of cloud services has negatively impacted the gross margin, which was 56.2% in Q3, down 5.0 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company has a rich pipeline of new products and is optimistic about future growth despite a downward revision of earnings forecasts [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 5.906 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 8.5% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is projected at 1.14 billion, down 20.1% year-on-year [4] - The company expects a gradual recovery in revenue and profit growth in the following years, with a projected net profit of 1.321 billion in 2026 and 1.579 billion in 2027 [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][8] Core Insights - The company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 50.5% year-on-year to 40.268 billion yuan, exceeding the expected growth range of 40%-60% [7] - The combined loss ratio (COR) improved significantly, with underwriting profit increasing by 183% year-on-year [7] - The company has effectively optimized its asset allocation, benefiting from the capital market's rise, leading to a substantial increase in total investment income [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's original insurance premium income rose by 3.5% year-on-year to 443.182 billion yuan, while insurance service income increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 385.921 billion yuan [7] - The comprehensive cost ratio improved by 2.1 percentage points year-on-year to 96.1%, outperforming expectations [7] - The company’s annualized total investment return for the first three quarters increased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year to 5.4% [8] Profit Forecast Adjustments - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to 48.116 billion, 49.883 billion, and 57.217 billion yuan respectively, from previous estimates of 36.852 billion, 40.899 billion, and 47.124 billion yuan [8] - The company’s price-to-book ratio (PB) for 2025 is projected at 1.31x, maintaining the "Buy" rating [8] Segment Performance - The company’s auto insurance service income for the first three quarters increased by 3.7% year-on-year to 227.632 billion yuan, with underwriting profit rising by 64.8% year-on-year to 11.729 billion yuan [11] - Non-auto insurance service income grew by 9.3% year-on-year to 158.289 billion yuan, with underwriting profit turning from a loss to a profit of 3.136 billion yuan [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the chemical industry [4][5]. Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is experiencing a seasonal demand downturn combined with rising costs, leading to a decline in profitability. However, there are signs of a potential recovery as the cycle approaches a bottom [4][6]. - The report highlights that the overall revenue for the chemical sector in Q3 2025 was 543.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1%. Net profit reached 33.6 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year but down 5% quarter-on-quarter [4][29]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on demand-driven sectors such as the textile and agricultural chains, as well as export-related products, while also considering the benefits from the "anti-involution" policies [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Chemical Sector Overview - In Q3 2025, the chemical sector faced a traditional seasonal downturn with reduced downstream operations, leading to a state of inventory reduction. The average price of Brent crude oil was $69.29 per barrel, down 14% year-on-year but up 2% quarter-on-quarter. The average price of thermal coal was approximately 673.10 yuan per ton, down 21% year-on-year but up 5% quarter-on-quarter [4][29]. - The overall gross margin for the chemical sector was 17.6%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.4% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.3% [4][29]. 2. Industry Profitability Under Pressure - The report notes that the profitability of the chemical sector is under pressure due to rising costs and seasonal demand declines. The average asset-liability ratio for the sector is 49.6%, remaining stable year-on-year and slightly down by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter [4][29][35]. - Specific segments such as agricultural chemicals are performing well, with net profit growth in areas like fertilizers and pesticides, while other segments like titanium dioxide and organic silicon are experiencing significant declines [4][5]. 3. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on sectors with high growth potential, such as the textile chain, agricultural chain, and export-related products. Key companies to watch include Lu Xi Chemical, Tongkun Co., and Wan Hua Chemical [4][5][6]. - The report also highlights the importance of key materials and self-sufficiency in the semiconductor and AI+ sectors, recommending companies like Yake Technology and Dinglong Co. for investment [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the construction industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The construction industry faced revenue and profit pressures in Q1-Q3 2025, with total revenue of 5.52 trillion, down 5.2% year-on-year, and net profit of 118.9 billion, down 9.0% year-on-year [2][3]. - The decline in revenue has narrowed, and cash flow has shown significant improvement, attributed to local government debt resolution policies and enhanced cash flow management by companies [2][5]. - The industry’s gross margin remained stable at 9.8%, with a net margin of 2.16%, indicating effective cost control despite external pressures [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Financial Overview of the Construction Industry - In Q1-Q3 2025, major listed companies in the construction sector reported a total revenue of 5.52 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, and a net profit of 118.9 billion, down 9.0% [3][9]. - Quarterly revenues were 1.84 trillion, 1.91 trillion, and 1.76 trillion, with respective year-on-year declines of 6.2%, 5.2%, and 4.3% [3][9]. 2. ROE Analysis - The overall Return on Equity (ROE) for the industry in Q1-Q3 2025 was 3.36%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points year-on-year [17]. - The decline in ROE is attributed to reduced investment and increased cost pressures, impacting profitability [17][28]. 3. Cash Flow Improvement - The industry’s operating cash flow showed improvement, with a net outflow of 404.7 billion, which is 70.7 billion less than the previous year [4][14]. - The cash collection ratio improved to 103%, 87%, and 108% across the three quarters, indicating better cash management [4][14]. 4. Investment and Profitability Trends - The construction sector is experiencing a shift towards cash management and asset quality improvement, with companies focusing on reducing ineffective assets [5][26]. - Investment net income in Q3 2025 decreased by 39.4 billion year-on-year, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the sector [26]. 5. Market Perception and Opportunities - The report suggests that the market underestimates the potential for investment in the construction and real estate sectors, which remain crucial to the economy [6]. - The emphasis on quality over growth by state-owned enterprises is expected to create new opportunities for sustainable growth [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company reported stable performance in its Q3 2025 results, with total revenue of 44.072 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.398 billion yuan, up 15.1% year-on-year [6]. - The increase in revenue is attributed to rising aluminum prices and decreasing costs, with the average market price for electrolytic aluminum in Q3 2025 at 20,711 yuan per ton, reflecting a 2.5% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 5.9% increase year-on-year [6]. - The company has successfully expanded its resource base, with the Yangliu Aluminum Ore West District mining plan approved, aiming for an annual capacity of 600,000 tons [6]. - The company has also invested 500 million yuan for a 16.70% stake in Yunnan Aluminum Foil, enhancing its integrated aluminum industry chain [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Projected total revenue for 2025 is 59.33 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.0% [5]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 6.34 billion yuan, representing a significant increase of 43.7% compared to the previous year [5]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 15.4% in 2025 to 21.7% by 2027 [5]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 18.6% in 2025, increasing to 19.5% in 2026 [5].