Investment Rating - The report indicates a clear investment value in the aviation engine industry, emphasizing the importance of domestic substitution despite the challenges ahead [4][10]. Core Insights - The aviation engine sector is crucial for a country's technological, industrial, and defense capabilities, with significant investment potential despite the long road to domestic substitution [4][10]. - The global general aviation engine market is projected to grow from approximately $5.66 billion in 2025 to $8.71 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 4.9% [4][17]. - The U.S. dominates the global market with a 28% share, while China holds a significant position in the Asia-Pacific region with a 9% share, primarily driven by flight training needs [4][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Aviation Power Industry Development - The aviation engine industry has evolved from piston engines to turbine engines, reflecting advancements in materials science, thermodynamics, fluid mechanics, and control technologies [14]. - The market is primarily composed of turboprop, turbofan, turboshaft, and piston engines, each suited for different aircraft types [20]. 2. Competitive Landscape - Major players in the aviation engine market include GE Aviation, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, and Safran, which have established significant barriers to entry through technology, market, and policy advantages [38][40]. - The domestic aviation engine industry is supported by national policies aimed at breaking through existing barriers and enhancing competitiveness [52]. 3. Market Trends and Investment Opportunities - The report identifies a transition phase for the aviation engine sector in China, where leading companies are moving from military to civilian applications, while smaller firms focus on high-power and hybrid propulsion technologies [5]. - The report highlights the need for breakthroughs in high-end materials, manufacturing equipment, and control systems to enhance domestic production capabilities [2][5]. 4. Engine Types and Market Share - In the piston engine segment, major manufacturers include Lycoming, Continental, and Rotax, with the global market size estimated at $570 million in 2025 [54]. - The turboprop engine market is led by Pratt & Whitney Canada with the PT6 series, which has a significant share in both military and civilian applications [61]. 5. Domestic Substitution Challenges - Key challenges for domestic substitution in the aviation engine industry include high-end material production, manufacturing equipment reliance on imports, and stringent airworthiness certification barriers [2][4].

Group 1: Economic Development Focus - Consumption is positioned as the core of Shanghai's economic development for the next five years[5] - The construction of an international consumption center is the primary goal in the "15th Five-Year Plan" for Shanghai[6] - Shanghai's development may serve as a model for other regions in transforming their economic growth strategies[5] Group 2: Key Initiatives for Consumption - The plan emphasizes a combination of demand-side consumption enhancement and supply-side structural reforms[6] - Shanghai aims to optimize the consumption environment targeting inbound, senior, and youth demographics[7] - The focus will be on developing new consumption types such as smart consumption, emotional consumption, and experiential consumption[8] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - There are inherent risks in the capital market and potential uncertainties in future policies[9]

Group 1 - The report highlights that precious metals and certain Asian equities performed well, with COMEX silver showing a significant weekly increase of 12.3%, outperforming Japanese and Korean equities as well as gold [7][8] - The overall risk appetite globally remains relatively high, but there is notable divergence in the performance of equities and commodities [7][8] - The correlation between A-shares and US stocks has decreased marginally, while the negative correlation between A-shares and Chinese credit bonds has also declined [7][10] Group 2 - In the equity market, the Nikkei 225 led developed markets with a 3.8% increase, while the Korean Composite Index surged by 5.5%, leading emerging markets [20][24] - The MSCI Global Index rose by 0.3%, but the momentum has slowed down, indicating a trend where emerging markets outperform developed and frontier markets, and Asia outperforms Europe and North America [20][24] - The A-share market showed a slight increase of 0.5%, with technology and small-cap stocks performing relatively better, while the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a minor decline of 0.6% [20][24] Group 3 - The bond market in China is characterized by a "bull flattening" trend, with the yield curve shifting downward and the 10Y-2Y yield spread narrowing [33][34] - In contrast, the US bond market is experiencing a "bear steepening" trend, with the yield curve moving upward and the 10Y-2Y yield spread widening [34][33] - As of January 16, the 10-year yield in China was at 1.84%, while the 10-year US yield was at 4.24%, reflecting differing monetary policy expectations [33][34] Group 4 - Commodity prices have generally increased, with the South China and CRB commodity indices rising by 1.1% and 0.2% respectively, and eight out of thirteen major commodities recorded price increases [7][34] - The US dollar index rose by 0.2%, with the Chinese yuan appreciating by 0.2% against the dollar, while other major currencies like the euro and pound depreciated [7][34] - Year-to-date, COMEX gold, nickel, and zinc have shown significant increases of 25.4%, 8.3%, and 7.0% respectively, indicating strong demand for these commodities [7][34]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy, macro expectations, geopolitical dynamics, and supply disruptions in influencing metal price trends, despite a balanced supply-demand situation [2] - Precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend supported by central bank gold purchases and rising gold ETF holdings [8] - Copper prices are under short-term pressure due to macro sentiment adjustments, but long-term demand from AI and power grid construction remains strong [10] - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain high volatility due to mixed macro signals and seasonal demand fluctuations [10] - Energy metals like lithium are seeing inventory reductions, with expectations of front-loaded demand due to changes in export tax policies [11] - Rare earth prices are recovering, driven by policy support and pre-holiday stocking demand [11] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have risen, with SHFE gold increasing by 3.17% to 1,032.32 CNY per gram and COMEX gold rising by 2.23% to 4,601.10 USD per ounce [8] - Silver prices surged, with SHFE silver up 22.82% to 22,483 CNY per kilogram and COMEX silver up 13.37% to 89.95 USD per ounce [9] Copper - Copper prices have seen a slight decline, with SHFE copper down 0.63% to 100,770 CNY per ton and LME copper down 1.50% to 12,803 USD per ton [10] - Supply remains tight, with significant labor actions expected to impact production [10] Aluminum - Aluminum prices are experiencing high volatility, with SHFE aluminum down 1.66% to 23,925 CNY per ton [10] - The processing operating rate has slightly increased to 60.2% [10] Energy Metals - Lithium inventory is decreasing, with demand expected to strengthen due to changes in export tax policies [11] - The cobalt sector is facing tight raw material supply, leading to higher prices [11] Rare Earths - Rare earth prices are on the rise, with significant increases in the prices of praseodymium-neodymium oxide and dysprosium oxide [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the investment banking and brokerage industry, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by more than 15% [6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the gradual standardization of derivative business regulation will lead to steady long-term development, favoring high-quality leading brokerages that benefit from scale effects [2][6]. - The recent public consultation on the "Derivatives Trading Supervision Management Measures (Trial) (Draft for Comments)" is aimed at implementing the new "National Nine Articles" and enhancing the regulatory framework for derivatives [6]. - The report highlights that the derivatives business remains a blue ocean, with significant growth potential as market activity increases and stable business models emerge [6]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Developments - The report discusses the recent public consultation on the derivatives trading supervision measures, which aims to promote a healthy and standardized development of the derivatives market [3][6]. - Key modifications in the draft include clearer regulations on counter-cyclical adjustments, risk management, and cross-border trading cooperation with foreign regulatory bodies [6]. Market Outlook - The derivatives business is expected to grow steadily due to increased market activity and the advantages of scale, particularly for leading brokerages with strong customer bases and professional capabilities [6]. - The report suggests that the evolution of brokerage self-operated models and the growth certainty provided by derivatives will be critical for differentiation in the future [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading brokerages such as China International Capital Corporation (CICC) and Huatai Securities, which are expected to benefit from the regulatory changes and market dynamics [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report rates the military industry as "Overweight" [12] Core Insights - The military industry is expected to have a long-term positive trend, supported by the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which emphasizes achieving the centenary goal of building a strong military and advancing the modernization of national defense and the military [7][8] - The military sector has recently experienced a decline, with the defense and military index dropping by 5.66%, underperforming the market by 5.21 percentage points [12][13] - Major aerospace state-owned enterprises have set goals for the 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on advancing aerospace defense industries and internationalization [8][9] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The military sector index fell by 5.66% from January 12 to January 17, 2026, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.45% and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.0% [12][13] - The China Securities National Security Index performed the best among military indices, with a decline of 1.77% [15] Major News in the Military Industry - Internationally, Russia has conducted large-scale strikes on Ukrainian military and energy facilities using precision-guided weapons and drones [21][22] - Domestically, the aerospace industry is focusing on key tasks for the 14th Five-Year Plan, including advancements in manned lunar missions and deep space exploration [8][9] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: 1. Assembly: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group, Aero Engine Corporation of China 2. Components: AVIC Optoelectronics, Zhimin Technology, Shaanxi Huada, Ruichuang Micro-Nano, Unisoc 3. Subsystems: Aerospace Electronics, Guorui Technology, Guobang Electronics, AVIC Avionics, Northern Navigation, Aerospace Nanhu 4. Materials and Processing: Jiachih Technology, AVIC High-Tech, Western Materials, Aviation Materials, Hangya Technology, Guangwei Composite, Filihua, Huayin Technology, Bolite [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report rates the military industry as "Buy" [11] Core Insights - The military industry is expected to have a long-term positive trend, supported by the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which emphasizes achieving the centenary goal of building a strong military and modernizing national defense [7][8] - The military sector has recently experienced a decline, with the defense and military index dropping by 5.66%, underperforming the market by 5.21 percentage points [12][13] - Major aerospace state-owned enterprises have set goals for the 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on advancing defense capabilities and technological independence [8][9] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The military sector index fell by 5.66% from January 12 to January 17, 2026, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.45% and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.0% [12][13] - The China Securities National Security Index performed the best among military indices, with a decline of 1.77% [15] Major News - Internationally, Russia has conducted large-scale strikes on Ukrainian military and energy facilities using precision-guided weapons and drones [21][22] - Domestically, the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation and the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation have outlined their key tasks for the 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on space defense and technological advancements [8][9] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: 1. Assembly: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group, Aero Engine Corporation of China 2. Components: AVIC Optoelectronics, Zhimin Technology, Shaanxi Huada, Ruichuang Micro-Nano, Unisoc 3. Subsystems: Aerospace Electronics, Guorui Technology, Guobang Electronics, AVIC Avionics, Northern Navigation, Aerospace Nanhu 4. Materials and Processing: Jiachitech, AVIC High-Tech, Western Materials, Aviation Materials, Huayi Technology, Platel [8][9][10]

Group 1 - The report suggests a tactical overweight in A/H shares, US stocks, and gold, while recommending an underweight in US Treasuries and crude oil due to geopolitical tensions exacerbated by the Trump administration's policies [1][4][14]. - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, including expectations of expanded fiscal deficits and more proactive economic policies as the 14th Five-Year Plan begins [14][15]. - The report highlights the resilience and safe-haven attributes of gold amid rising geopolitical uncertainties and ongoing central bank purchases, suggesting a tactical overweight in gold [16][14]. Group 2 - The report indicates that the US labor market is cooling, and the decline in energy prices along with slower wage growth may provide the Federal Reserve with more room to adjust monetary policy, leading to a cautious outlook on US Treasuries [15][14]. - The report notes that the geopolitical situation surrounding oil is expected to intensify, recommending an underweight in crude oil due to consistent supply-demand expectations and the Trump administration's inclination towards lower oil prices [16][14]. - The tactical asset allocation model suggests a 45% allocation to equities, 45% to bonds, and 10% to commodities, with specific weights assigned to various asset classes [18][20].

Group 1 - The report highlights that funds with a "negative duration" characteristic achieved an average excess return of approximately 1.42% during the year-end period [1] - The negative duration strategy is not merely a hedging approach but an active directional interest rate strategy, adjusting the overall duration of the portfolio to zero or negative to gain returns during rising interest rate cycles [6][7] - A typical operation involves holding short-duration credit bonds or interest rate bonds as the base and selling longer-duration government bond futures, allowing for a negative correlation between the portfolio's net value and interest rate changes [6][7] Group 2 - The analysis identified 64 funds that significantly diverged from their benchmark index for more than 10 days, representing a market size of approximately 116.2 billion, accounting for 2% of the total size of medium to long-term bond funds [7] - Among these, 5 funds diverged for over 20 trading days, with a total size of about 6.4 billion, achieving a weighted average return of 0.88%, resulting in an excess return of 1.42% compared to the total return index [7] - Funds that diverged for over 30 days, although only 2 in number, achieved an average excess return of 1.51%, indicating that systematic use of the negative duration strategy can create excess returns in a clearly defined rising interest rate environment [7][8] Group 3 - The report provides a weekly overview of bond funds, noting that the ETF market pressure has eased, with funds favoring short-duration credit and high-elasticity varieties [10] - Since January 12, the bond ETF market sentiment has improved, with significant net inflows observed in short-term credit bond ETFs, which turned into a net inflow of 3.59 billion, a 104.4% increase compared to previous periods [10] - Trading activity has concentrated on high-elasticity sectors, with convertible bond ETFs seeing a 36.9% increase in weekly trading volume [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company is expected to accelerate revenue growth in the second half of 2025 due to a low base in 2024, various market initiatives, and favorable pricing of polyester bottle materials, maintaining optimistic profit levels [2][3] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 42,915.64 million RMB in 2023 to 69,446 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14% [4] - Gross profit is expected to increase from 25,407 million RMB in 2023 to 42,709 million RMB in 2027, with gross margin improving from 58.08% to 61.50% [4] - Net profit is forecasted to rise from 12,080 million RMB in 2023 to 21,677 million RMB in 2027, indicating a CAGR of about 16% [4] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 43 in 2023 to 24 in 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation over time [4] Revenue Growth Drivers - In the first half of 2025, the company's packaged water revenue grew by 10.7%, with market share expected to continue recovering in the second half due to low base effects and ongoing channel efforts [9] - The tea beverage segment saw a revenue increase of 19.7% in the first half of 2025, driven by promotional activities and an expanding product range [9] - Juice revenue increased by 21.3% in the first half of 2025, with continued positive performance anticipated in the second half [9] Cost and Profitability Outlook - The price of polyester bottle materials is expected to decline, which will positively impact the company's gross margin in the second half of 2025 [9] - The absence of significant marketing expenses in the second half of 2025, compared to the previous year, is expected to support sustained profitability [9]