Group 1 - The report highlights the expectation of rising interest rates and how low premiums on elasticity and liquidity, as well as "negative" premiums, can be addressed [1] - The 30-year government bond has shown weakness compared to the 10-year government bond, with the yield rising from 2.19% to 2.30% since early December 2025, while the 10-year government bond yield fluctuated around 1.83% [7][11] - The report suggests that high elasticity and liquidity characteristics of the 30-year bond may lead to greater potential losses during rising interest rate periods, making it less favorable in the current market environment [8][14] Group 2 - The report discusses the factors contributing to the "negative premium" of the 30-year government bond, emphasizing that high liquidity and elasticity can lead to a lower or negative premium, contrary to traditional pricing logic [12][14] - It notes that the supply of long-term bonds is increasing, with expectations of continued high issuance of super long-term bonds, which may not alleviate market concerns [21][24] - Demand for super long-term government bonds remains weak, particularly among large banks, which may limit their purchasing power in the secondary market [26][31] Group 3 - The report outlines three scenarios for the future performance of the 30-year government bond, including potential rapid rebounds or adjustments based on market conditions and central bank actions [39][43] - It indicates that the 30-year bond may experience a quick downward adjustment in yields, with a potential narrowing of the 30-10Y spread to around 40 basis points [45] - The report suggests that strategies involving the 30-year bond may be more suitable for hedging purposes, especially if market conditions remain uncertain leading up to the Spring Festival [46]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the Chinese market is entering a "transformation bull" phase, characterized by higher, more stable, and longer growth potential, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing strong performance above 4000 and 4100 points since the beginning of 2026 [8] - Key drivers of this "transformation bull" include the decline of risk-free returns, capital market reforms, and economic structural transformation, which collectively enhance the market's ability to attract social consensus and capital [8][20] - The report expresses optimism about the market's future, suggesting that the "transformation bull" has significant room for growth in 2026 [8] Group 2 - The report highlights that the regulatory environment is becoming more prudent, which is expected to lead to a more sustainable market rather than abrupt fluctuations, thus enhancing the market's investability [20] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has reiterated its commitment to maintaining a stable market environment and preventing excessive volatility, indicating a focus on long-term investment strategies [20] - The report suggests that stricter regulations will ultimately benefit the market by allowing more investors to share in the benefits of economic transformation and capital market reforms [20] Group 3 - The report identifies several sectors with promising investment opportunities, particularly in technology and non-financial sectors, as the Chinese economy stabilizes and asset management needs grow [25] - Specific recommendations include technology growth sectors, such as semiconductors and AI, driven by increasing global demand for computing power and advancements in chip technology [25][26] - Non-bank financial sectors are also highlighted as beneficiaries of increased wealth management demand and capital market reforms, with recommendations for insurance and brokerage firms [25] Group 4 - The report recommends focusing on themes such as domestic computing power, new energy grids, robotics, and domestic consumption, which are expected to drive growth in various industries [25][49] - The domestic AI infrastructure is projected to expand significantly, driven by the rapid iteration of domestic large model products and increased capital expenditure in related sectors [25][26] - The report also emphasizes the importance of service consumption and consumer goods, suggesting that innovation in these areas will align with government policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [49]

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Liquidity Shock Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: The model measures market liquidity by assessing deviations from the average liquidity level over the past year[4][8] - **Model Construction Process**: The liquidity shock indicator is calculated based on the standard deviation of the current market liquidity relative to the average liquidity over the past year. For the CSI 300 Index, the indicator value on Friday was 3.32, which is 3.32 standard deviations above the average liquidity level of the past year[4][8] - **Model Evaluation**: Indicates that the current market liquidity is significantly higher than the historical average, suggesting a favorable environment for trading[4][8] 2. Model Name: Sentiment Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates market sentiment using factors such as limit-up and limit-down board data to assess the strength of market sentiment[4][14] - **Model Construction Process**: The sentiment model score is derived from various sub-factors, including: - Net limit-up ratio - Next-day return after limit-down events - Proportion of limit-up boards - Proportion of limit-down boards - High-frequency board-hitting returns The overall sentiment score is 2 out of 5, indicating a moderate sentiment level[4][14][19] - **Model Evaluation**: The model reflects a weakening in market sentiment but still indicates a positive trend[4][14] 3. Model Name: High-Frequency Capital Flow Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses high-frequency capital flow data to generate buy/sell signals for major broad-based indices[4][14] - **Model Construction Process**: The model tracks the capital flow trends for indices such as CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. Based on the data, the model generates signals for aggressive long, aggressive short, conservative long, and conservative short positions. For all three indices, the signals are consistently positive, indicating a "buy" recommendation[4][14][19] - **Model Evaluation**: The model suggests that the major indices are in a "buy" cycle, supporting a positive market outlook[4][14] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Liquidity Shock Indicator - CSI 300 Index: Indicator value = 3.32 (3.32 standard deviations above the historical average)[4][8] 2. Sentiment Model - Overall sentiment score: 2/5 - Sub-factor signals: - Net limit-up ratio: 1 - Next-day return after limit-down events: 0 - Proportion of limit-up boards: 1 - Proportion of limit-down boards: 0 - High-frequency board-hitting returns: 0[4][14][19] 3. High-Frequency Capital Flow Model - CSI 300 Index: All signals (aggressive long, aggressive short, conservative long, conservative short) = 1 - CSI 500 Index: All signals = 1 - CSI 1000 Index: All signals = 1[4][14][19] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Small-Cap Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the performance of small-cap stocks relative to the market[20][21] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor's crowding level is calculated using four metrics: - Valuation spread - Pairwise correlation - Market volatility - Return reversal The composite score for the small-cap factor is 0.20[20][21] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor's crowding level is stable, indicating no significant risk of factor failure[20][21] 2. Factor Name: Low-Valuation Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks the performance of low-valuation stocks[20][21] - **Factor Construction Process**: Similar to the small-cap factor, the crowding level is calculated using the same four metrics. The composite score for the low-valuation factor is -0.75[20][21] - **Factor Evaluation**: The negative score suggests a potential risk of underperformance due to crowding[20][21] 3. Factor Name: High-Profitability Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on stocks with high profitability metrics[20][21] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor's crowding level is calculated using the same four metrics. The composite score for the high-profitability factor is 0.35[20][21] - **Factor Evaluation**: Indicates moderate crowding but still within acceptable levels[20][21] 4. Factor Name: High-Growth Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Targets stocks with high growth potential[20][21] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor's crowding level is calculated using the same four metrics. The composite score for the high-growth factor is 0.55[20][21] - **Factor Evaluation**: Suggests a favorable environment for high-growth stocks[20][21] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Small-Cap Factor - Valuation spread: 0.43 - Pairwise correlation: 0.22 - Market volatility: -0.28 - Return reversal: 0.41 - Composite score: 0.20[20][21] 2. Low-Valuation Factor - Valuation spread: -1.22 - Pairwise correlation: -0.05 - Market volatility: 0.26 - Return reversal: -2.01 - Composite score: -0.75[20][21] 3. High-Profitability Factor - Valuation spread: -0.55 - Pairwise correlation: 0.31 - Market volatility: -0.01 - Return reversal: 1.65 - Composite score: 0.35[20][21] 4. High-Growth Factor - Valuation spread: 1.09 - Pairwise correlation: 0.46 - Market volatility: -0.29 - Return reversal: 0.95 - Composite score: 0.55[20][21]

Core Insights - The report indicates an increase in trading activity, with the ChiNext Index leading in valuation growth. The overall market valuation has risen, with the ChiNext Index showing the highest increase [1][4]. Valuation Summary - The report highlights that the PE valuation across various indices has shown mixed results, with the ChiNext Index leading with a 0.9 percentage point increase. The PB valuation also reflects mixed trends, with the CSI 1000 leading with a 2.0 percentage point increase [4][5]. - In terms of industry valuations, the media sector leads in PE valuation, increasing by 1.5 percentage points, while the power and utilities sector leads in PB valuation with a 4.8 percentage point increase [4][5][20]. Market Sentiment - The report notes a rise in trading activity, with turnover rates showing mixed results. The Shanghai 50 Index saw the largest increase in turnover rate at 9.4%. Overall transaction volume increased across all indices, with the ChiNext Index leading with a 30.4% increase [4][31]. - The margin trading balance as of January 15, 2026, reached 2.70 trillion, reflecting a 3.47% increase compared to January 9, 2026. The proportion of financing purchases in total A-share transaction volume was 11.18%, a slight decrease of 0.09 percentage points from the previous week [4][32]. Risk Premium - The report indicates a slight increase in the equity risk premium (ERP), which rose to 3.95% as of January 16, 2026, up by 0.02 percentage points from January 9, 2026 [4][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for multiple companies within the wholesale and retail industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6][7]. Core Insights - The integration of Qianwen APP with Alibaba's ecosystem marks a significant transition from "tools" to "intelligent agents," suggesting a promising acceleration in AI applications within the industry [3]. - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in tourism and travel policies, which is expected to continue driving growth in related sectors such as OTA (Online Travel Agencies) and hotels [5]. - The competitive landscape is improving significantly, with companies like Caibai Co. and Huatu Shanding gaining traction [5]. - The report identifies a surge in AI application trends, with companies such as Kangnait Optical and Qingshu Technology positioned as key players [5]. - Impressive sales data in the duty-free segment is noted, particularly for China Duty Free Group [5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The wholesale and retail sector experienced a slight decline, with the trade retail sector down by 0.16% and consumer services down by 0.99% last week, ranking 12th and 18th among 30 industries respectively [5]. Key Company Updates - Kangnait Optical expects a net profit growth of no less than 30% for the fiscal year 2025 [5]. - Chongqing Department Store anticipates a revenue of 14.712 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 14.16% year-on-year, with a net profit drop of 22.36% [5]. - China Gold projects a significant decline in net profit for 2025, estimating between 286.4 million yuan and 368.2 million yuan, a drop of 55% to 65% [5]. - Chaohongji expects a substantial increase in net profit for 2025, with projections between 435.71 million yuan and 532.54 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 125% to 175% [5]. Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include Zhongxin Tourism (+15.08%), Alibaba (+13.45%), and Haidilao (+10.65%) among the top gainers last week [5]. - The report emphasizes the potential of undervalued companies such as Laopu Gold and Su Meida, alongside others like Jiangsu Guotai and Action Education [5].

股票研究/[Table_Date] 2026.01.18 [Table_Industry] 计算机 上海发布"模速智行"行动计划，自动驾 驶产业驶入加速赛道 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 杨林(分析师) | 021-23183969 | yanglin2@gtht.com | S0880525040027 | | 魏宗(分析师) | 021-23180000 | weizong@gtht.com | S0880525040058 | | 吕浦源(分析师) | 021-23183822 | lvpuyuan@gtht.com | S0880525050002 | | 朱瑶(分析师) | 021-23187261 | zhuyao@gtht.com | S0880526010002 | 本报告导读： 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 1 月 7 日三部门联合印发《上海高级别自动驾驶引领区"模速智行"行动计 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the trading heat of hot themes has reached historical highs, with advanced packaging and equipment themes in the semiconductor sector gaining strength, while the commercial aerospace theme has cooled down. The average daily trading volume of hot themes reached 1.436 billion yuan, with an average turnover rate of 5.9%, marking a historical peak [7][9][12] - The report emphasizes the acceleration of theme rotation, focusing on sectors with strong demand support and concentrated industrial catalysts, particularly in low-tech areas such as domestic computing power, new power grids, robotics, and domestic consumption [4][6][20] Group 2 - In the domestic computing power theme, TSMC's capital expenditure is expected to exceed expectations, boosting demand in the semiconductor advanced manufacturing sector. TSMC's net profit for Q4 2025 is projected to grow by 35% year-on-year, with capital expenditure potentially reaching a historical high of 56 billion USD in 2026, a 37% increase from 2025 [20][25][29] - The new power grid theme sees the State Grid announcing a fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan, aimed at constructing a new power system. The proportion of non-fossil energy consumption in China is expected to reach 20% by 2025 and 25% by 2030 [21][35][40] - The robotics theme is highlighted by the participation of Chinese robotics companies at CES 2026, showcasing advancements in various application scenarios. The industry is entering a phase of large-scale development, with significant growth in repetitive and dangerous industrial tasks as well as personalized consumer scenarios [22][39][41] - The domestic consumption theme is driven by government initiatives to cultivate new growth points in service consumption, with a focus on enhancing the domestic market. The report notes the emergence of new consumption scenarios in sports events, ice and snow tourism, and cultural performances, with significant economic impacts [23][43][44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical sector [6][26]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the continuous recommendation of innovative pharmaceuticals and medical devices, highlighting the high growth potential in the sector. It maintains "Overweight" ratings for companies such as Heng Rui Medicine, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Sanofi, Kelun Pharmaceutical, and Enhua Pharmaceutical. It also recommends Biopharma/Biotech companies like Kelun Biotech, BeiGene, and others, as well as CXO and upstream pharmaceutical companies [6][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Continuous Recommendation of Innovative Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices - The report highlights the high growth potential of innovative drugs and recommends several companies for investment, including Heng Rui Medicine, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Sanofi, Kelun Pharmaceutical, and Enhua Pharmaceutical. It also suggests Biopharma/Biotech companies like Kelun Biotech, BeiGene, and others, as well as CXO and upstream pharmaceutical companies [6][7]. 2. A-share Pharmaceutical Sector Performance - In the third week of January 2026, the A-share pharmaceutical sector underperformed the broader market, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 0.4% and the SW Pharmaceutical and Biotech index falling by 0.7% [8][11]. 3. Hong Kong and US Market Performance - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector performed in line with the market, while the US pharmaceutical sector underperformed. In the same week, the Hang Seng Healthcare index rose by 2.4%, and the S&P 500 healthcare sector fell by 1.1% [19][20].

航空春运预售启动，原油运价大幅飙升 [Table_Industry] 运输 ——国泰海通交运周观察 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 岳鑫(分析师) | 0755-23976758 | yuexin@gtht.com | S0880514030006 | | | 陈亦凡(研究助理) | 0755-23976151 | chenyifan2@gtht.com | S0880124070025 | [Table_subIndustry] | 本报告导读： 航空：春运预售启动，旺季表现可期。建议淡季布局超级周期长逻辑。油运：原油 运价大幅飙升，预计 2026Q1 油轮盈利同比大增，油运超级牛市可期。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 运输《航空深入"反内卷"，原油运价快速回升》 2026.01.11 运输《油运运价快速回升，干散运价淡季回落》 2026.01.11 运输《2025 年运价再创新高，2026 年期待超级牛 市》2026.01.08 运输《元旦航空量价两旺，油运淡季运价回 ...

票 研 究 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [姓名table_Authors] 电话 邮箱 登记编号 涂力磊(分析师) 021-23185710 tulilei@gtht.com S0880525040101 谢皓宇(分析师) 010-83939826 xiehaoyu@gtht.com S0880518010002 第 3 周成交回升，商业地产首付比下调有利稳定市场 [Table_Industry] 房地产 上周地产成交回升。1 月 17 日人民银行下调商业用房购房贷款最低首付款比例为不 低于 30%，有利于商业地产市场的企稳回升。维持行业"增持"评级。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 房地产《第 2 周成交回落，期待未来政策对冲外部 不利影响》2026.01.11 房地产《规模收缩，价值聚焦》2026.01.09 房地产《资金覆盖率逐步提升，专项债成关键驱动 力》2026.01.09 房地产《如何理解"房地产高质量发展"》2026.01.08 房地产《TOP100 房企 2025 年 12 月销售数据点评》 2026.01.05 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的 ...