股票研究/[Table_Date] 2026.01.18 [Table_Industry] 计算机 上海发布"模速智行"行动计划，自动驾 驶产业驶入加速赛道 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 杨林(分析师) | 021-23183969 | yanglin2@gtht.com | S0880525040027 | | 魏宗(分析师) | 021-23180000 | weizong@gtht.com | S0880525040058 | | 吕浦源(分析师) | 021-23183822 | lvpuyuan@gtht.com | S0880525050002 | | 朱瑶(分析师) | 021-23187261 | zhuyao@gtht.com | S0880526010002 | 本报告导读： 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 1 月 7 日三部门联合印发《上海高级别自动驾驶引领区"模速智行"行动计 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the trading heat of hot themes has reached historical highs, with advanced packaging and equipment themes in the semiconductor sector gaining strength, while the commercial aerospace theme has cooled down. The average daily trading volume of hot themes reached 1.436 billion yuan, with an average turnover rate of 5.9%, marking a historical peak [7][9][12] - The report emphasizes the acceleration of theme rotation, focusing on sectors with strong demand support and concentrated industrial catalysts, particularly in low-tech areas such as domestic computing power, new power grids, robotics, and domestic consumption [4][6][20] Group 2 - In the domestic computing power theme, TSMC's capital expenditure is expected to exceed expectations, boosting demand in the semiconductor advanced manufacturing sector. TSMC's net profit for Q4 2025 is projected to grow by 35% year-on-year, with capital expenditure potentially reaching a historical high of 56 billion USD in 2026, a 37% increase from 2025 [20][25][29] - The new power grid theme sees the State Grid announcing a fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan, aimed at constructing a new power system. The proportion of non-fossil energy consumption in China is expected to reach 20% by 2025 and 25% by 2030 [21][35][40] - The robotics theme is highlighted by the participation of Chinese robotics companies at CES 2026, showcasing advancements in various application scenarios. The industry is entering a phase of large-scale development, with significant growth in repetitive and dangerous industrial tasks as well as personalized consumer scenarios [22][39][41] - The domestic consumption theme is driven by government initiatives to cultivate new growth points in service consumption, with a focus on enhancing the domestic market. The report notes the emergence of new consumption scenarios in sports events, ice and snow tourism, and cultural performances, with significant economic impacts [23][43][44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical sector [6][26]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the continuous recommendation of innovative pharmaceuticals and medical devices, highlighting the high growth potential in the sector. It maintains "Overweight" ratings for companies such as Heng Rui Medicine, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Sanofi, Kelun Pharmaceutical, and Enhua Pharmaceutical. It also recommends Biopharma/Biotech companies like Kelun Biotech, BeiGene, and others, as well as CXO and upstream pharmaceutical companies [6][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Continuous Recommendation of Innovative Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices - The report highlights the high growth potential of innovative drugs and recommends several companies for investment, including Heng Rui Medicine, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Sanofi, Kelun Pharmaceutical, and Enhua Pharmaceutical. It also suggests Biopharma/Biotech companies like Kelun Biotech, BeiGene, and others, as well as CXO and upstream pharmaceutical companies [6][7]. 2. A-share Pharmaceutical Sector Performance - In the third week of January 2026, the A-share pharmaceutical sector underperformed the broader market, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 0.4% and the SW Pharmaceutical and Biotech index falling by 0.7% [8][11]. 3. Hong Kong and US Market Performance - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector performed in line with the market, while the US pharmaceutical sector underperformed. In the same week, the Hang Seng Healthcare index rose by 2.4%, and the S&P 500 healthcare sector fell by 1.1% [19][20].

航空春运预售启动，原油运价大幅飙升 [Table_Industry] 运输 ——国泰海通交运周观察 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 岳鑫(分析师) | 0755-23976758 | yuexin@gtht.com | S0880514030006 | | | 陈亦凡(研究助理) | 0755-23976151 | chenyifan2@gtht.com | S0880124070025 | [Table_subIndustry] | 本报告导读： 航空：春运预售启动，旺季表现可期。建议淡季布局超级周期长逻辑。油运：原油 运价大幅飙升，预计 2026Q1 油轮盈利同比大增，油运超级牛市可期。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 运输《航空深入"反内卷"，原油运价快速回升》 2026.01.11 运输《油运运价快速回升，干散运价淡季回落》 2026.01.11 运输《2025 年运价再创新高，2026 年期待超级牛 市》2026.01.08 运输《元旦航空量价两旺，油运淡季运价回 ...

票 研 究 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [姓名table_Authors] 电话 邮箱 登记编号 涂力磊(分析师) 021-23185710 tulilei@gtht.com S0880525040101 谢皓宇(分析师) 010-83939826 xiehaoyu@gtht.com S0880518010002 第 3 周成交回升，商业地产首付比下调有利稳定市场 [Table_Industry] 房地产 上周地产成交回升。1 月 17 日人民银行下调商业用房购房贷款最低首付款比例为不 低于 30%，有利于商业地产市场的企稳回升。维持行业"增持"评级。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 房地产《第 2 周成交回落，期待未来政策对冲外部 不利影响》2026.01.11 房地产《规模收缩，价值聚焦》2026.01.09 房地产《资金覆盖率逐步提升，专项债成关键驱动 力》2026.01.09 房地产《如何理解"房地产高质量发展"》2026.01.08 房地产《TOP100 房企 2025 年 12 月销售数据点评》 2026.01.05 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The supply contraction from two major cotton-exporting countries has been established, with a downward revision in U.S. cotton yield and the first decline in Brazilian cotton production and area in five years [3] - U.S. cotton prices are showing significant bottoming characteristics, with ICE 2 cotton futures significantly below planting costs and basis signals confirming this trend [3] - The core variable is anchored in Brazil, with multi-dimensional data confirming the inevitability of production cuts [3] Summary by Sections Supply Dynamics - The global cotton supply is reaching a critical turning point characterized by a "double reduction" pattern. The USDA's January 2026 report indicates an 8% downward revision in U.S. cotton yield to 856 pounds per acre, leading to a 2% decrease in total production compared to December forecasts. This has alleviated inventory pressure [5] - Brazil, as the world's largest cotton exporter, is experiencing a termination of its supply expansion cycle. The CONAB report predicts a 2.8% reduction in planting area and a 6.3% decrease in production to 3.82 million tons for the 25/26 season, marking the first reduction in both area and production in five years [5] Price Dynamics - U.S. cotton prices have been in a prolonged downturn for nearly three years, with current ICE 2 cotton futures around 65 cents per pound, placing it in the 20% historical low range since 2015. The current price is significantly below the average planting cost of approximately 80 cents per pound, indicating limited downward price potential [5] - Historical data shows that the basis for U.S. cotton has reached a low point, with high-quality cotton exhibiting a positive basis in January, suggesting a structural basis recovery as a leading indicator for mid-term price increases [5] Investment Recommendations - The report is optimistic about the performance elasticity of Bailong Oriental under the upward driving force of U.S. cotton prices. The expected downward revision in U.S. cotton production and the end of Brazil's capacity expansion provide a solid foundation for U.S. cotton price support [5] - The report recommends Bailong Oriental, which holds low-cost cotton inventory that will release significant profit elasticity as cotton prices rise. The increase in raw material prices is expected to boost yarn sales prices and significantly restore gross margins through inventory appreciation in a positive basis environment [5][6]

股 票 研 究 12 月收支表:居民存款边际活化，中小银行配债意愿或有下降 [Table_Industry] 商业银行 银行周报（2026/1/12-2026/1/16） | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马婷婷(分析师) | 021-23185608 | matingting@gtht.com | S0880525100001 | | 陈惠琴(分析师) | 021-38676666 | chenhuiqin@gtht.com | S0880525100003 | 本报告导读： 12 月收支表：负债端，居民储蓄存款出现边际活化迹象；资产端，大型银行票据压 降力度较大，中小银行中长期贷款增幅较为显著，12 月债市波动，中小银行配债意 愿或有下降。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 负债端：低基数下非银存款大幅多增 1）个人存款：同比多增 4287 亿元，其中活期储蓄存款、定期储蓄 存款分别同比多增 1000 亿元、少增 391 亿元，居民储蓄存款出现边 际活化迹象，定期储蓄存款延续由中小银行向大型银行迁 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the company's revenue grew by 0.8% year-on-year, with shipment volume remaining flat. The company is positioned for investment in 2026, maintaining its commitment to return value to shareholders [2][10]. - The company has faced initial challenges in increasing production capacity in Indonesia and the Philippines, but has made progress. Efficiency in the Indonesian factory is expected to improve, reaching approximately 95% by January 2026 [10]. - The company plans to return up to $60 million in additional cash to shareholders annually through share buybacks and special dividends, alongside maintaining a typical payout ratio of 70% for 2025-2026 [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: $1,545 million - 2025E: $1,568 million - 2026E: $1,567 million - 2027E: $1,661 million - Net profit estimates are: - 2024: $171 million - 2025E: $138 million - 2026E: $151 million - 2027E: $165 million - The company’s PE ratios are projected to be: - 2024: 9.30 - 2025E: 11.53 - 2026E: 10.54 - 2027E: 9.62 [4][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, recommending investment in AI computing, cloud vendors, AI applications, and AI social sectors [6]. Core Insights - TSMC's financial report shows strong demand for 3nm technology, with Q4 2025 revenue reaching $33.7 billion, a 1.9% quarter-over-quarter increase, and a gross margin of 62.3%, up 2.8% [6][9]. - OpenAI has announced an advertising strategy for its ChatGPT services, aiming to monetize its large user base, which has nearly 1 billion monthly active users, of which only 5% are paying subscribers [10][24]. - Major memory manufacturers are increasing production, but demand continues to outstrip supply, indicating a sustained memory supercycle [11]. Summary by Sections TSMC Financial Performance - TSMC's revenue for Q4 2025 was $33.7 billion, exceeding guidance, with a gross margin of 62.3% [6][9]. - The share of 3nm process technology in revenue increased to 28%, a 5% quarter-over-quarter rise [6][9]. - TSMC's capital expenditure is projected to surge to $52-56 billion, primarily for advanced processes [6][9]. OpenAI's Advertising Strategy - OpenAI plans to introduce ads in its free and entry-level subscription versions of ChatGPT, reflecting a shift towards monetization amid significant operational losses [10][24]. - The company faces pressure to convert its large free user base into paying customers to support its ambitious goals [10][24]. Memory Manufacturers' Production Increase - Samsung's DRAM production is expected to rise to 8 million wafers in 2026, a 5% increase year-over-year, while SK Hynix anticipates an 8% increase [11]. - Despite these increases, there remains a significant gap between supply and market demand, indicating ongoing challenges in the memory market [11]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Nvidia (NVDA), TSMC (TSM), ASML (ASML), and Broadcom (AVGO) in the AI computing sector [26][30]. - For cloud vendors, Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Google (GOOGL) are highlighted [26][30]. - In AI applications, Apple (AAPL), Qualcomm (QCOM), Lenovo (0992.HK), and Xiaomi (1810.HK) are recommended [26][30].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on coupon rates and suggests taking advantage of the 3-5 year credit bond allocation opportunities during the concentrated opening period of amortized cost method bond funds [6][7] - The credit bond market is characterized by strong buying power despite a short-term contraction in liquidity, with a notable shift in demand from short-term to medium and long-term bonds [6][9] - The report indicates that the market will benefit from multiple supportive factors, including accelerated credit issuance by banks and the upcoming concentrated opening period for amortized cost method bond funds, which is expected to provide sustained buying support for medium to long-term credit bonds [7][9] Group 2 - In the primary market, net financing decreased to 49.04 billion yuan, with a total issuance of 278.6 billion yuan and maturities of 229.57 billion yuan during the week of January 12-16, 2026 [9][10] - The secondary market saw an increase in trading volume, with total transactions reaching 861.775 billion yuan, up by 65.925 billion yuan from the previous week, and a general decline in medium-term note yields [9][12] - The report highlights that AAA-rated issuers accounted for the largest share of new issuances, with construction sector issuers being the most prominent [9][10]