1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures declined this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.85% [9][11]. - The current time has entered the traditional peak stocking period before the Spring Festival. However, downstream channels have a low willingness to make large - order purchases, and the terminal market generally maintains a low - inventory strategy of "buying and selling as needed", resulting in fragmented demand transmission. With only more than ten days left before the national logistics network shuts down, close attention should be paid to the stocking intensity in the last stage before the festival [9]. - The 2025/26 jujube production season is expected to see a decline in jujube output [40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - Future trading tips include monitoring spot prices and the consumer side [9]. - As of January 22, 2026, the physical inventory of 36 sample jujube points this week was 14,068 tons, a decrease of 347 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.41%, and a year - on - year increase of 32.72% [9][36]. - The Hebei sales area continued to receive goods, and prices were stable but weak [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price**: The price of the Zhengzhou jujube 2605 contract declined this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.85% [11]. - **Top 20 positions**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 18,571 lots [12]. - **Warehouse receipts**: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was 3,298 [17]. - **Futures price spread**: As of this week, the price spread between the 2605 and 2609 contracts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures was - 240 yuan/ton [20]. - **Basis**: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei grey jujube and the main contract of jujube futures was 460 yuan/ton [23]. - **Purchase price in main production areas**: As of January 23, 2026, the purchase price of general - quality jujubes in Aksu was 5.15 yuan/kg, in Alar was 5.65 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar was 6.5 yuan/kg [26]. - **First - grade jujube spot price**: As of January 23, 2026, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 4.1 yuan/jin, and in Henan was 4.15 yuan/jin [27]. - **Special - grade jujube spot price**: As of January 23, 2026, the spot price of special - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 9.26 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price in Henan was 9.44 yuan/kg [32]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply side**: - As of January 22, 2026, the 36 - sample jujube inventory decreased by 2.41% month - on - month and increased by 32.72% year - on - year [36]. - The jujube output in the 2025/26 production season is expected to decline [40]. - **Demand side**: - In December 2025, China's jujube export volume was 5,071,577 kg, with an export value of 79,876,362 yuan and an average export price of 15,749.81 yuan/ton. The export volume increased by 43.36% month - on - month and decreased by 18.20% year - on - year. From January to December 2025, the cumulative export was 34,362,765 kg, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.58% [43]. - This week, the BOCE Xinjiang Jujube Good Brand had only a small amount of orders [48]. 3.4. Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - **Options market**: Information on the implied volatility of at - the - money jujube options this week was presented, but no specific numerical summary was provided [49]. - **Stock market**: The price - to - earnings ratio of Hao Xiang Ni (002582) was shown, but no specific numerical analysis was provided [51][52].

Group 1: Report Overview - The precious metals market continued its upward trend this week, with the Greenland incident boosting market risk aversion, and domestic and international gold and silver prices hitting new all - time highs [7]. - The overall bullish logic for precious metals remains intact in the medium - to - long term, with a strategy of buying on dips recommended, while short - term high - level correction risks should be noted [7]. Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core View - The current US economic data generally meets market expectations. Under the assumption of stable inflation and employment data, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times in the second half of the year. With the Fed's restart of the balance - sheet expansion plan, the bullish logic for precious metals remains unchanged in the context of loose liquidity and a gradual slowdown in economic data [7]. Group 4: Periodic and Spot Market - The precious metals market continued its strong upward trend due to macro - event shocks this week [8]. - As of January 23, 2026, the Shanghai silver main contract 2604 was reported at 24,965 yuan/kg, up 11.04% for the week; the Shanghai gold main contract 2604 was reported at 1,115.64 yuan/g, up 8.07% for the week [12]. - This week, the net position of foreign gold ETFs increased, while that of silver decreased. As of January 22, 2026, the SPDR gold ETF holding was reported at 1,079.66 tons, a 0.51% increase; the SLV silver ETF holding was reported at 16,104 tons, a 0.90% decrease [13][17]. - As of January 13, 2025 (latest), the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver both increased significantly. The COMEX gold net position was reported at 251,238 contracts, a 10.40% increase; the COMEX silver net position was reported at 32,060 contracts, a 9.53% increase [18][22]. - This week, the basis of gold and silver weakened. As of January 22, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was reported at - 14.58 yuan/g; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was reported at - 430 yuan/kg, showing a week - on - week weakening [23][27]. - This week, the gold and silver inventories of domestic and foreign exchanges continued to diverge. As of January 22, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was reported at 36,144,279.82 ounces, a 0.19% decrease; the SHFE gold inventory was reported at 100,053 kg, a 2.46% increase. The COMEX silver inventory was reported at 426,476,499 ounces, a 2.5% decrease; the SHFE silver inventory was reported at 626,843 kg, a 1.10% increase [28][30]. Group 5: Industrial Supply - Demand Situation Silver Industry - As of December 2025, the import volumes of silver and silver ore sand both increased significantly. China's silver import volume was reported at 334,742.41 kg, a 27.03% increase; the import volume of silver ore sand and its concentrates was reported at 239,325,381 kg, a 32.29% increase [32][36]. - Downstream: Due to the increasing demand for silver in semiconductors, the production of integrated circuits continued to rise, and the year - on - year growth rate tended to be stable. As of December 2025, the monthly production of integrated circuits was reported at 4,810,000 units, and the year - on - year growth rate was reported at 12.9% [38][41]. Silver Supply - Demand - The silver supply - demand was in a tight - balance pattern. As of the end of 2024, the industrial demand for silver was reported at 680.5 million ounces, a 4% increase; the demand for coins and net bars was reported at 190.9 million ounces, a 22% decrease; the net investment demand for silver ETFs was reported at 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the same period of the previous year; the total demand for silver was reported at 1,164.1 million ounces, a 3% decrease [43][45]. - In 2025, the improvement in silver supply - demand was mainly due to the recovery of mine production and a slight increase in recycled silver. Investment and industrial demand declined slightly, significantly narrowing the market shortage. As of the end of 2024, the silver supply - demand gap was reported at - 148.9 million ounces, a 26% decrease. The World Silver Institute predicted that in 2025, the global total silver supply would increase by 3% to about 1,050 million ounces, the global total silver demand would decrease by 4% to about 1,120 million ounces, and the supply - demand gap was expected to narrow to about - 70 million ounces, a 53% decrease [50][52]. Gold Supply - Demand - The investment demand for gold ETFs increased significantly, and central banks of emerging countries continued to buy gold. In January 2026, the central banks of China and Turkey continued to buy about 0.93 tons and 3.0 tons of gold respectively [54][71]. Group 6: Macroeconomic and Options - This week, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly under the impact of macro - events [58]. - This week, the 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened slightly, and the CBOE gold volatility increased significantly [63]. - This week, the US inflation - balanced interest rate rebounded slightly [67].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is likely to continue range-bound trading due to a combination of factors. Macroscopically, tariff disturbances have weakened, and there are expectations of loose monetary policies. Industrially, the weekly output of rebar has stopped falling and rebounded, reaching around 2 million tons. It is the off - consumption season, with apparent demand declining and inventory turning from decreasing to increasing. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading of the RB2605 contract in the range of 3100 - 3165 yuan/ton [9]. - Given the positive macro expectations and the average performance of the rebar industry, the market may be range - bound. It is suggested to simultaneously sell out - of - the - money call and put options [60]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - by - Week Summary - **Market Review**: As of January 23, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3142 yuan/ton (-21 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3300 yuan/ton (-50 yuan/ton week - on - week). Rebar production increased to 199.55 tons (+9.25 tons week - on - week), with a year - on - year increase of 25.42 tons. Apparent demand declined to 185.52 tons (-4.82 tons week - on - week), but a year - on - year increase of 68.61 tons. Total rebar inventory was 452.1 tons (+14.03 tons week - on - week), with a year - on - year decrease of 31.11 tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 40.69%, a 0.86 - percentage - point increase week - on - week and an 8.23 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Overseas, the US will not impose tariffs on eight European countries, and the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Domestically, the central bank may cut reserve requirements and interest rates. In terms of cost, iron ore port inventory reached a new high, and coking coal and coke still have winter storage expectations. Technically, the RB2605 contract continued range - bound trading, with technical support at 3100 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The RB2605 contract first declined and then rebounded this week. It was stronger than the RB2610 contract, with a spread of -46 yuan/ton on the 23rd, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton [15]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions**: On January 23, the warehouse receipt volume of rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 39487 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43193 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders in the rebar futures contract was 66833 lots, an increase of 38128 lots compared to the previous week [22]. - **Spot Price**: On January 23, the spot price of Grade III 20mm HRB400 rebar in Hangzhou was 3300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3321 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The spot price was weaker than the futures price, and the basis on the 23rd was 158 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan/ton [28]. 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream Market**: The spot price of iron ore decreased, and the spot price of coke remained flat. The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased, while port inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate of coking plants decreased, and coke inventory increased [30][35][39]. - **Supply Side**: In December 2025, China's crude steel production decreased year - on - year. The weekly rebar production increased, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased slightly week - on - week, and the electric arc furnace operating rate decreased. Rebar inventory increased [45][48][54]. - **Downstream Demand**: In 2025, real estate development investment, new housing construction area, and infrastructure investment all declined year - on - year [57]. 4. Options Market - Due to the positive macro expectations and the average performance of the rebar industry, it is recommended to simultaneously sell out - of - the - money call and put options [60].

Group 1: Report Summary and Strategy Recommendations - The egg market showed a slight decline in this week's trading. The closing price of the 2603 contract was 3046 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 26 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [6]. - The ongoing losses in the breeding sector have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the culling of old hens. The inventory of laying hens continues to decline from its high level, and the market sentiment has slightly improved. The current enthusiasm for replenishment is still lower than the same period last year, which is favorable for future prices [6]. - However, the current inventory of laying hens is still at a high level. Recently, the Spring Festival stocking sentiment has reached its peak, and the inventory at all levels has decreased. Some inventories have been cleared, and traders are more active in purchasing, with a faster turnover rate. Egg prices have risen significantly, and the profits of the breeding sector have improved, which has slightly slowed down the enthusiasm for culling old hens. The high production capacity still restricts the performance of the near - term market price [6]. - After the New Year's Day, the futures market has also shown a relatively strong and volatile trend, boosted by the continuous rise in spot prices. However, the high inventory pressure continues to affect the futures market trend. It is recommended to participate in the short - term trading [6]. Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures Price and Top Twenty Positions - The March contract of egg futures showed a slight decline, with a trading volume of 270,982 lots, an increase of 7,784 lots compared to last week. The net position of the top twenty was +10,286, compared with +1,787 last week, indicating a slight increase in net long positions [13]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [16]. Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of eggs was reported at 3907 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 263 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to last week. The basis between the active March contract of egg futures and the average spot price was reported at +861 yuan per ton [22]. Futures Inter - month Spread - The spread between the March and May contracts of egg futures was reported at - 466 yuan per 500 kilograms, which is generally at a relatively low level in the same period [26]. Related Commodity Spot Prices - As of January 22, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 18.5 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key monitored vegetables was reported at 5.66 yuan per kilogram [32]. Group 3: Industrial Chain Conditions Supply - side: Inventory Index and Replenishment Enthusiasm - As of December 31, 2025, the national laying hen inventory index was reported at 109.28, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The national new chick index was reported at 71.99, a month - on - month decrease of 23.10% [38]. Culling Index and Culling Age of Laying Hens - As of December 31, 2025, the national culling index of laying hens was reported at 124.98, a month - on - month increase of 23.52%. The national culling age of laying hens was reported at 500 days [43]. Feed Raw Material Prices - As of January 22, 2026, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2370 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3140 yuan per ton [47]. Feed Price and Breeding Profit - As of January 16, 2026, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.08 yuan per hen, and the average price of laying hen compound feed was reported at 2.84 yuan per kilogram [54]. Prices of Laying Hen Chicks and Culled Hens - As of January 16, 2026, the average price of laying hen chicks in the main producing areas was reported at 3.0 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main producing areas was reported at 8.78 yuan per kilogram [58]. Monthly Egg Export Volume - According to data released by the Chinese Customs, in December 2025, the total egg export volume was 14,898.72 tons, an increase of 2,767.32 tons compared with 12,131.40 tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 22.81%. It was also an increase of 1,853.21 tons compared with 13,045.52 tons in the previous month [63]. Group 4: Representative Company - The report also mentioned the price - earnings ratio change of Xiaoming Co., Ltd [65].

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.23」 铝类市场周报 供需尚稳预期支撑，铝类或将高位震荡 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 电解铝：基本面供给端，原料氧化铝低位运行，电解铝厂理论利润情况较好，加之其冶炼厂启停成本较高，生产开工 情况仍保持高位稳定，在运行产能小幅提振，但受限于行业上限的制约，其增量有限，电解铝供给量大体持稳。需求 端，季节性消费淡季的影响下，下游铝材厂逢低补货、刚需采购为主，现货市场成交情况一般，产业库存积累。整体 来看，沪铝基本面或处于供给稳定、需求表现谨慎的阶段，铝价受宏观预期的影响而保持高位运行。 观点总结：沪铝主力合约轻仓震荡交易，注意操作节奏及风险控制。 3 行情回顾：沪铝周线反弹，周涨跌幅+1.53%，报24290元/吨。氧化铝震荡偏弱，周涨跌-0.98%，报2724元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，几内亚传统雨季影响正在逐渐消退，矿山开工率与发运能力逐步恢复， ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, tariff disturbances are weakening, and there are expectations of a loose monetary policy. Industrially, iron ore shipments are decreasing, molten iron production is stagnant, port congestion volumes are declining, ports continue the trend of inventory accumulation, and spot resources are relatively abundant. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading on the I2605 contract in the range of 810 - 770 yuan, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. - With stagnant molten iron production, continuous inventory accumulation at ports, and relatively abundant spot resources, the futures price may fluctuate weakly. It is suggested to consider buying out - of - the - money put options on the I2605 contract after a rebound [55]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Price - As of the close on January 23, the futures price of the iron ore main contract was 795 (-17) yuan/ton, and the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 869 (+0) yuan/dry ton [6]. 3.1.2 Shipment - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 251,100 tons week - on - week. From January 12 to January 18, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 29.298 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 251,100 tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 22.466 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359,800 tons [5][6]. 3.1.3 Arrival - The arrival volume at 47 ports decreased by 117,300 tons. From January 12 to January 18, 2026, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 28.977 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117,300 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 26.597 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.607 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.429 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,300 tons [6]. 3.1.4 Demand - The molten iron production increased by 90 tons. The daily average molten iron production was 2.281 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 90 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.65 million tons [6]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The port inventory increased by 207,830 tons. As of January 23, 2026, the imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 174.9653 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 207,830 tons and a year - on - year increase of 18.9692 million tons. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 93.8882 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 126,600 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 14.575 million tons [6]. 3.1.6 Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills was 40.69%, a week - on - week increase of 0.86 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.23 percentage points [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - This week, the center of gravity of the I2605 contract moved down. The price of the I2605 contract was weaker than that of the I2609 contract. On the 23rd, the price difference was 17.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton [14]. 3.2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On January 23, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1,100, a week - on - week decrease of 400. On January 23, the net position of the top 20 in the iron ore futures contract was a net short position of 14,724, a decrease of 3,885 compared with the previous week [20]. 3.2.3 Spot Price - On January 23, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was reported at 849 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 23rd, the basis was 54 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Arrival Volume - From January 12 to January 18, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 29.298 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 251,100 tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 22.466 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359,800 tons. The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 28.977 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117,300 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 26.597 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.607 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.429 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,300 tons [29]. 3.3.2 Inventory - This week, the total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 174.9653 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 207,830 tons; the daily average port congestion volume was 3.2052 million tons, a decrease of 145,000 tons. In terms of components, the Australian ore inventory was 77.7605 million tons, an increase of 193,840 tons; the Brazilian ore inventory was 60.9071 million tons, a decrease of 78,430 tons; the trading ore inventory was 115.2784 million tons, an increase of 174,990 tons. The total imported iron ore inventory of steel mills in China was 93.8882 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 126,600 tons; the current daily consumption of imported ore by the sample steel mills was 2.819 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 50 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 33.31 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.44 days [34]. 3.3.3 Inventory Availability Days - As of January 22, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore in large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 23 days, a week - on - week increase of 2 days. On January 22, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,761, a week - on - week increase of 194 [38]. 3.3.4 Import Volume and Capacity Utilization - According to customs statistics, in December, China imported 119.647 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, an increase of 9.107 million tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 8.2%; from January to December, the cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrates was 1.258709 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. As of January 16, the capacity utilization rate of the sample of 266 mines in China was 62.82%, a week - on - week increase of 4.06%; the daily average output of fine powder was 396,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25,600 tons; the inventory was 435,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,600 tons [42]. 3.3.5 Domestic Iron Ore Production - In December 2025, China's iron ore raw ore production was 79.3449 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.6831 million tons. From January to December, the cumulative production was 1.0020771 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.0188 million tons. In November, the iron fine powder production of 433 iron ore mining enterprises in China was 22.811 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 129,000 tons, a decrease of 0.6%; from January to November, the cumulative production was 252.471 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.576 million tons, a decrease of 3.3% [45]. 3.4 Downstream Situation 3.4.1 Crude Steel Production - In December 2025, China's crude steel production was 68.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. In the whole year of 2025, China's crude steel production was 960.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [49]. 3.4.2 Steel Imports and Exports - In December 2025, China exported 11.301 million tons of steel, an increase of 1.321 million tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%; from January to December, the cumulative steel export was 119.019 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In December, China imported 517,000 tons of steel, an increase of 21,000 tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%; from January to December, the cumulative steel import was 6.059 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% [49]. 3.4.3 Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Molten Iron Production - On January 23, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.70 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.51%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.87 percentage points. On January 23, the daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 2.281 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 90 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.65 million tons [52]. 3.5 Options Market - With stagnant molten iron production, continuous inventory accumulation at ports, and relatively abundant spot resources, the futures price may fluctuate weakly. It is suggested to consider buying out - of - the - money put options on the I2605 contract after a rebound [55].

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.1.23」 热轧卷板市场周报 多空博弈 热卷期价延续区间整理 添加客服 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1. 价格：截至1月23日收盘，热卷主力合约期价为3305（-10），杭州涟钢热卷现货价格为3320（-10）。（单位： 元/吨/周） 2. 产量：热卷产量下调。305.41（-2.95），（同比-17.23）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求提升。本期表需314.16（+5.82），（同比+11.6）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库增，社库降。总库存357.78（-4.55），（同比+21.27）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率40.69%，环比上周增加0.86个百分点，同比去年减少8.23个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美国总统特朗普发文称，他已经同北约秘书长吕特就未来达成有关格陵兰岛 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the export transactions of some domestic butadiene resources drove up the raw material market, increasing the production cost of butadiene rubber and affecting production profits. The bearish sentiment in the spot market subsided, and traders actively supported prices. However, downstream procurement was slow. The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market rebounded rapidly after a significant decline [6]. - Recently, there have been few shutdowns of domestic butadiene rubber plants, and supply has remained at a high level. Sufficient spot resources have led to continuous price - pressure from downstream buyers, putting pressure on production profits. Some producers' inventories increased this week, while the price advantage of arbitrage resources led to increased low - price procurement by downstream, and traders' inventories decreased. It is expected that the inventories of producers and traders will change little in the short term [6]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises showed mixed trends. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire enterprises increased slightly due to foreign trade orders, while most other enterprises maintained stable production. The shipment pressure of all - steel tire enterprises increased, and some enterprises moderately controlled production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises will be slightly weak and stable in the short term [6]. - For the br2603 contract, short - term traders need to beware of the callback correction caused by the rapid rise of the futures price. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [6] Summary by Directory 1. Week - by - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The export transactions of domestic butadiene resources drove up raw material prices, increasing the production cost of butadiene rubber. The bearish sentiment in the spot market subsided, but downstream procurement was slow. The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market rebounded after a decline [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply of butadiene rubber remains high, and downstream procurement is still pressuring prices. Producer inventories increased, and trader inventories decreased. It is expected that inventories will change little in the short term. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises showed mixed trends, and it is expected to be slightly weak and stable in the short term [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the br2603 contract, short - term traders should beware of callback correction and wait and see for the time being [6] 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 9.44% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Inter - Period Spread**: As of January 23, the 3 - 4 spread of butadiene rubber was - 30 [17]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 23, the warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber were 8,120 tons, an increase of 1,590 tons from last week [20]. Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of January 22, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was - 420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 355 yuan/ton from last week [26] 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of January 22, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 567 US dollars/ton, an increase of 18.5 US dollars/ton from last week. The CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 700 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton from last week [29]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of January 23, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.45%, an increase of 0.08% from last week. The port inventory of butadiene was 34,500 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons from last week [32]. Industry - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In December 2025, the domestic production of butadiene rubber was 143,600 tons, an increase of 13,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. As of January 22, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 76.12%, a decrease of 3.45% from last week [35]. - **Production Profit**: As of January 22, the domestic production profit of butadiene rubber was - 1,002 yuan/ton, a decrease of 281 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - **Inventory**: As of January 23, the social inventory of domestic butadiene rubber was 35,400 tons, an increase of 460 tons from last week. The producer inventory was 29,050 tons, an increase of 2,150 tons from last week, and the trader inventory was 6,350 tons, a decrease of 1,690 tons from last week [42]. Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises showed mixed trends this week [45]. - **Tire Exports**: In December 2025, China's tire exports were 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, the cumulative tire exports were 8.4307 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38%. The exports of passenger car tires and truck and bus tires showed different trends [48] 4. Option Market Analysis - Not mentioned in the report

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2605 increased with a weekly gain of about 0.72%. Considering the boost from holiday stockpiling and the reduction in cotton planting area, it is expected that the cotton price will still maintain a possible upward trend in the future [5]. - According to a report from a Brazilian authority, in December 2025, Brazil exported 452,500 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 28.2%. In the first five months of the 2025/26 season, the cumulative export was 1.405 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.7%, reaching the highest export volume from August to December in history [5]. - As of the end of December 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory in China was 5.7847 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.51% and a year - on - year slight increase of 1.75%, at a high level in the same period. However, driven by the combination of downstream rigid demand replenishment and the expectation of reduced planting in the future, the short - term inventory pressure is expected to be controllable [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2605 increased this week, with a weekly gain of about 0.72% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Brazil's cotton exports increased significantly in December 2025 and the first five months of the 2025/26 season. China's commercial cotton inventory was at a high level at the end of December 2025, but the short - term inventory pressure is controllable. The cotton price is expected to maintain a possible upward trend [5]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory conditions [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton March contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.32%. As of January 13, 2026, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 88,834 lots, an increase of 7,425 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 116,265 lots, an increase of 5,936 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 27,431 lots, a decrease of 1,489 lots from the previous week [11]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: In the week ending January 8, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season reached 339,700 bales, a high for the season. The international cotton spot price this week was 74.55 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.5 cents per pound from last week [17]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2605 contract increased this week, with a weekly gain of about 0.72%, while the price of the cotton yarn futures 2603 contract decreased by 0.15%. As of this week, the net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures were - 164,119 lots, and in cotton yarn futures were - 1,836 lots. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 9,972, and the number of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts was 0 [21][27][31]. - **Spot Market**: As of January 23, 2026, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,870 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 21,320 yuan per ton [42][53]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of January 22, the import cotton price with sliding - scale duty was 13,684 yuan per ton, a decrease of 51 yuan per ton from last week; the import cotton quota price was 12,514 yuan per ton, a decrease of 102 yuan per ton from last week. The import cotton yarn price indices for different varieties were also provided [59]. - **Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit**: As of January 22, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 2,135 yuan per ton, a decrease of 100 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,828 yuan per ton, a decrease of 49 yuan per ton from last week [62]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply - Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of the end of December 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7847 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.51% and a year - on - year slight increase of 1.75%. At the end of December, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 983,800 tons, an increase of 44,200 tons from the end of the previous month [67]. - **Supply - Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In December 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 180,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 31%. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative cotton import volume was 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.1%. In December 2025, China's imported cotton yarn volume was 170,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [70]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand - Side - Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory**: As of the end of November, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.33 days, an increase of 0.21 days from the previous month, and the grey cloth inventory was 32.34 days, an increase of 0.37 days from the previous month [73]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand - Side - Textile and Garment Export Volume**: In December 2025, China's textile and garment export volume was 25.99 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4% and a month - on - month increase of 8.9%. Among them, textile exports were 12.58 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2%; clothing exports were 13.41 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2% [79]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand - Side - Domestic Garment Retail Sales**: As of October 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing were 864.54 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 13.90%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was 2.9%, a month - on - month increase of 20.83% [83]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Market - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton this week was presented in the report, but specific data was not mentioned [84]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. was shown in the report, but specific data was not mentioned [87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market first declined and then rose, with rubber prices closing higher. The domestic main producing areas are in the off - season, while the southern part of Thailand is in the peak production season. Qingdao port inventories continue to accumulate, but the rate of accumulation in general trade has narrowed. The demand from tire enterprises is mixed, with semi - steel tire capacity utilization slightly increasing and all - steel tire capacity utilization slightly decreasing. It is recommended to watch the pressure near the previous highs for the ru2605 and nr2603 contracts and stay on the sidelines for now [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The natural rubber market first declined and then rose, with rubber prices closing higher. In the import rubber market, traders changed positions and closed arbitrage positions, and factories made appropriate low - price purchases. In the domestic spot market, the trading atmosphere was average, and downstream enterprises only had a small amount of rigid demand inquiries with insufficient actual order follow - up [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic main producing areas are in the off - season, and the southern part of Thailand is in the peak production season. Qingdao port inventories continue to accumulate, with African rubber accounting for most of the incoming goods. The inventory in bonded warehouses continues to increase, and the inventory accumulation rate in general trade has narrowed. The willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at low prices has improved, and the total outbound volume has increased. The capacity utilization of tire enterprises is expected to be stable with a slight downward trend [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the ru2605 and nr2603 contracts, pay attention to the pressure near the previous highs and stay on the sidelines for now [7]. 3.2. Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 3.03% this week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber rose by 2.75% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: Not elaborated on in detail in the content. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of January 23, the spread between the May and September contracts of Shanghai rubber was 95, and the spread between the March and April contracts of 20 - rubber was - 30 [20]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 22, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 109,870 tons, an increase of 1,480 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 55,339 tons, a decrease of 1,411 tons from last week [25]. 3.3. Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of January 22, the price of state - owned whole latex was 15,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [28]. - **20 - rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of January 22, the basis of 20 - rubber was 530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 970 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.4. Upstream Situation - **Thai Raw Material Price and Processing Profit**: As of January 23, the price of field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 57.6 (- 0.4) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 53 (+ 0.8) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 17 US dollars/ton from last week [40]. - **Domestic Producing Area Raw Material Price**: The Yunnan and Hainan producing areas in China are in the off - season [43]. 3.5. Industry Situation - **Import Volume**: In December 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4%. The cumulative import volume from January to December 2025 was 6.6751 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.94% [49]. - **Qingdao Inventory**: As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons or 2.94%. The bonded warehouse inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26% [53]. 3.6. Downstream Situation - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of January 22, the capacity utilization of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points. The capacity utilization of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points [56]. - **Tire Export Volume**: In December 2025, China's tire export volume was 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. The cumulative export volume from January to December 2025 was 8.4307 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38% [59]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales)**: In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. The heavy - truck market in 2025 ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles [62].