Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The geopolitical risk from the US's tough action against Venezuela boosts the safe - haven attribute of precious metals, but the trading sentiment of the platinum and palladium market weakens due to concentrated long - position reduction. The Fed's potential balance - sheet expansion provides bottom support for the precious metals market [7]. - The supply shortage of platinum persists due to long - term structural constraints in major producing areas, and the industrial demand remains resilient, especially in the automotive industry. In contrast, the demand for palladium is expected to weaken as it is over - concentrated in the automotive catalyst field and affected by the popularization of new - energy vehicles. The market is shifting from supply shortage to surplus. In the short term, the US - Venezuela situation may support platinum and palladium prices, while in the long term, the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" trend is likely to continue [7]. - The operating ranges are: for London platinum, the upper resistance is $2500 per ounce and the lower support is $1900 per ounce; for London palladium, the upper resistance is $1900 per ounce and the lower support is $1500 per ounce [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - The US - Venezuela situation boosts the safe - haven attribute of precious metals, but trading sentiment weakens due to long - position reduction. The Fed's balance - sheet expansion provides support [7]. - Platinum supply shortage persists due to structural issues in major producing areas, and industrial demand is resilient. Palladium demand is expected to weaken as the market shifts to surplus, but the bullish sentiment from rate - cut expectations may support prices [7]. - In the short term, the US - Venezuela situation may support prices; in the long term, the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" trend is likely [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The platinum and palladium markets rebounded this week, showing a volatile and upward trend [8]. - As of January 9, 2026, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's palladium main contract 2606 was at 499.05 yuan/gram, up 17.37% week - on - week; the platinum main contract 2606 was at 599.80 yuan/gram, up 13.76% week - on - week [10]. - NYMEX platinum and palladium long - position net holdings differ significantly, with palladium showing a net outflow. As of December 30, 2025, NYMEX platinum long - position net holdings were 23,636 contracts, down 6.95% month - on - month; palladium long - position net holdings were - 1546 contracts, up 5.21% month - on - month [11][15]. - This week, the basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium main contracts weakened [16]. - As of January 8, 2026, NYMEX platinum inventory was 625,014.69 ounces, down 4.26% month - on - month; palladium inventory was 211,305.82 ounces, up 0.61% month - on - month [24]. - The price ratio of NYMEX platinum to COMEX gold significantly increased at the beginning of 2025 [25]. - The rolling correlation coefficient between platinum and gold prices rises [27]. - Recently, the positive correlation between platinum prices and NYMEX platinum inventory and the US dollar index has weakened marginally [31]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand - As of November 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum decreased [35]. - The demand for platinum in automobile exhaust catalysts decreased marginally [40]. - The total global demand for platinum and palladium shows a moderate downward trend, and the global supply of platinum and palladium declines [45][50]. 3.4 Macroeconomics and Options - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded steadily [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 contract rose first and then fell, with a weekly increase of about 0.62%. The US cotton export signing volume continued to decline, while the domestic cotton market supply was relatively sufficient, and the inventory continued to increase. The downstream textile enterprises had limited orders, and some weaving mills might have an early holiday. However, the market generally expected a decline in the cotton planting area in the new year, which supported the cotton market to a certain extent. The short - term cotton price center is expected to continue to rise. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro and policy factors [8] Summary by Directory 1. Week - by - Week Highlights Summary Market Review - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 contract rose first and then fell, with a weekly increase of about 0.62% [8] Market Outlook - As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 98,000 bales, a decrease of 27% from the previous week and 49% from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume was 154,000 bales, an increase of 9% from the previous week and 18% from the average of the previous four weeks. The domestic cotton market supply is relatively sufficient, and the inventory continues to increase. The downstream textile enterprises have limited orders, and some weaving mills may have an early holiday. The short - term cotton price center is expected to continue to rise [8] Future Trading Tips - Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [9] 2. Futures and Spot Market US Cotton Market - This week, the price of the US cotton March contract rose, with a weekly increase of about 0.78%. As of December 30, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 81,162 lots, an increase of 722 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 112,119 lots, an increase of 46 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 30,957 lots, a decrease of 676 lots from the previous week [14] Foreign Cotton Spot Market - As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 98,000 bales, a decrease of 27% from the previous week and 49% from the average of the previous four weeks. This week, the international cotton spot price was 75.05 cents per pound, an increase of 0.75 cents per pound from the previous week [20] Futures Market - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 contract rose first and then fell, with a weekly increase of about 0.62%. The cotton yarn futures 2603 contract rose 0.51%. As of this week, the net positions of the top twenty in cotton futures were - 177,522 lots, and the net positions of the top twenty in cotton yarn futures were - 1,948 lots. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 7,388, and the number of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts was 20 [23][30][34] Spot Market - As of January 9, 2026, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,930 yuan per ton. The spot price of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 21,300 yuan per ton, CY index: OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 15,130 yuan per ton; CY index: OEC10s (combed yarn) was 24,300 yuan per ton [45][55] Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost - As of January 9, 2026, the sliding - scale duty price of imported cotton was 13,729 yuan per ton, a decrease of 201 yuan per ton from the previous week; the quota price of imported cotton was 12,599 yuan per ton, a decrease of 323 yuan per ton from the previous week. As of January 8, 2026, the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C21S was 20,155 yuan per ton; C32S was 21,326 yuan per ton; JC32S was 23,080 yuan per ton [59] Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit - As of January 9, 2026, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 2,263 yuan per ton, an increase of 637 yuan per ton from the previous week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,475 yuan per ton, an increase of 759 yuan per ton from the previous week [63] 3. Industry Situation Supply Side - As of the end of November 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.6836 million tons, an increase of 1.753 million tons from the previous month, an increase of 59.82%, and 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year, an increase of 0.21%. The in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 939,600 tons, an increase of 51,400 tons from the end of the previous month. In November 2025, China's total cotton imports were about 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%; from January to November 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64%. In November 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons [68][75] Mid - end Industry - As of the end of November 2025, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.33 days, an increase of 0.21 days from the previous month. The grey fabric inventory was 32.34 days, an increase of 0.37 days from the previous month [78] Terminal Consumption - In November 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 23.87 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%, a month - on - month increase of 7.20%. Among them, textile exports were 12.28 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1%; clothing exports were 11.59 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%. As of October 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing were 864.54 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 13.90%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 2.9%, a month - on - month increase of 20.83% [84][88] 4. Options and Stock - related Markets Options Market - This week's implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton is presented in the report, but specific data is not detailed [89] Stock Market - The report shows the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [92]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is gradually digesting potential negative factors, and sentiment is easing. In Q1, the issuance scale of government bonds is expected to be roughly the same as in the same period of 2025, but the specific proportion of ultra - long bonds remains to be confirmed. The strong performance of the equity market at the beginning of the year has increased short - term profit - taking needs, and the market may enter a consolidation phase, which is expected to relieve liquidity pressure. However, the fundamental support may weaken, as the manufacturing PMI in December exceeded expectations and the economic data of that month may improve marginally, reducing the need for further loose monetary policies in the short term. With multiple factors at play, interest rates are expected to continue their weak and volatile trend in the short term [103]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures' main contracts (TS2603, TF2603, T2603, TL2603) fell by 0.12%, 0.18%, 0.09%, and 0.48% respectively. The trading volumes of the TS, TF, and TL main contracts increased, while that of the T main contract decreased. The open interests of the TF, T, and TS main contracts decreased, and that of the TL main contract increased [14][29]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - **Key News**: On January 6, the People's Bank of China planned to use various monetary policy tools flexibly and efficiently in 2026, and strengthen financial market supervision. The same day, China banned the export of dual - use items to Japanese military users. On January 7, eight ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Implementation Opinions on the Special Action of 'Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing'". On January 8, the central bank conducted a 1.1 - trillion - yuan repurchase operation. The US initial jobless claims last week rose to 208,000, and the US President Trump expected to "manage" Venezuela for many years and increase the military budget [35][36]. 3.3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10 - year and 5 - year yields, and 10 - year and 1 - year yields widened. The spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, and 5 - year and 10 - year main contract yields narrowed. The spreads between the current and next quarters of the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts widened, while those of the 2 - year and 5 - year contracts narrowed [44][50][56]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders in the T Treasury bond futures main contract decreased significantly [67]. - **Interest Rate Changes** - Shibor rates for overnight and 1 - week terms increased, while those for 2 - week and 1 - month terms decreased. The weighted - average DR007 rate fell to around 1.47%. Most Treasury bond spot yields increased, with the 10 - year and 30 - year yields rising by about 3.75bp and 5.45bp to 1.88% and 2.31% respectively [71]. - The spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields fluctuated [76]. - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 102.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the open market, with 1.3236 trillion yuan due. The 1.1 - trillion - yuan repurchase was rolled over, and the treasury cash fixed - term deposit of 6 billion yuan matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.2449 trillion yuan. The weighted - average DR007 rate fell to around 1.47% [81]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 976.86 billion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 412.35 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing of 564.51 billion yuan [86]. - **Market Sentiment** - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0128, up 160 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB narrowed. - The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond fluctuated, and the VIX index increased. - The yield of the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond increased slightly, and the A - share risk premium decreased [91][94][99]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In December, macro - policies continued to take effect, inflation moderately rebounded, the CPI year - on - year increase continued to expand, and the PPI decline narrowed to 1.9%. For the whole year, the CPI was flat compared with the previous year, and the PPI was still in the negative range. In December, the official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs both improved and returned above the boom - bust line. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026 [102]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US job market continued to cool down. The ADP employment in December increased to 41,000 but was still lower than expected. The number of job openings in November dropped to a 14 - month low. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in December unexpectedly fell to 47.9, the lowest since 2024, while the non - manufacturing PMI rebounded, indicating the resilience of the service industry. The US raid on Venezuela caused geopolitical shocks [102].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract rose with a weekly increase of about 0.70%. The overall data of the domestic sugar market is slightly bearish, but the market's expectation of a decline in Brazil's export prospects supports the sugar market. In the short - term, sugar prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. - Future factors to watch include the domestic new sugar crushing situation and demand [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract increased by about 0.70% this week [5]. - **Market Outlook**: As of January 7, 2026, in the 2025/26 crushing season in Thailand, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 16.9782 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.35%; sugar production was 1.5309 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.03%. In December 2025 in China, Guangxi's monthly sugar production was 1.808 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 431,000 tons, and monthly sugar sales were 795,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 551,800 tons. As of December 31, 2025, Yunnan's cumulative sugar production was 392,300 tons, higher than the same period of the previous crushing season, and cumulative sugar sales were 281,400 tons, slightly better than the same period last year [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **ICE US Sugar**: The price of the US Sugar March contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 2.47%. As of December 30, 2025, the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar futures was 137,822 lots, a decrease of 11,719 lots from the previous week [12]. - **International Raw Sugar Spot Price**: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 14.78 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.15 cents per pound from last week [16]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: The price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract increased by about 0.70% this week. The top 20 net positions of Zhengzhou sugar futures were - 68,838 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 6,005 [19][25]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Contract Spread**: The spread between the 5 - 9 contracts of Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 11 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou sugar basis was + 102 yuan/ton [27]. - **Spot Market**: As of January 9, the price of new sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,390 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar in Nanning was 5,370 yuan/ton [34]. - **Imported Sugar Cost and Profit**: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,361 yuan/ton, an increase of 117 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 199 yuan/ton, an increase of 102 yuan/ton from last week. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,228 yuan/ton, an increase of 74 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 140 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan/ton from last week [40]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side** - **Domestic Sugar Production**: No specific data on the cumulative value of domestic sugar production was provided in the text, only the data of Guangxi and Yunnan were mentioned [42]. - **Industrial Inventory**: No specific data on industrial inventory was provided [45]. - **Imported Sugar Quantity**: In November 2025, China's sugar imports were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.08% and a month - on - month decrease of 310,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.74% [49]. - **Demand Side** - **Sugar Sales Rate**: The sugar sales rate was average. In November 2025, China's monthly production of refined sugar was 1.303 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, and the monthly production of soft drinks was 10.457 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [57]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Markets - **Option Market**: Information on the implied volatility of at - the - money options of white sugar this week was presented, but no specific data was provided [58]. - **Stock Market**: Information on the price - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry was presented, but no specific data was provided [63].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures rose, with a weekly increase of about 2.06%. The acquisition of Xinjiang grey jujubes is almost finished, and the market focus has shifted to the consumer side. As the twelfth lunar month approaches, the festival stocking demand is expected to drive the market into a phased peak of sales. Attention should be paid to the actual sales speed at the terminal and the performance of inventory reduction in channels [10][12]. - The 2025/26 jujube production season is expected to see a decline in output. As of January 8, 2026, the physical inventory of 36 sample jujube points was 15,300 tons, a decrease of 349 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 41.27% [38][42]. - In November 2025, China's jujube export volume was 3,537,566 kilograms, with an export value of 53,004,642 yuan and an average export price of 14,983.36 yuan/ton. The export volume increased by 60.42% month - on - month and decreased by 5.18% year - on - year. From January to November, the cumulative export was 29,291,188 kilograms, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.50% [46]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Future trading tips include monitoring spot prices and the consumer side. The acquisition in the production areas is basically over, and the flow of goods in the market is generally stable. Traders commonly stockpile raw materials in Xinjiang. As the festival approaches, the demand for stocking is expected to drive the market [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price**: The price of the Zhengzhou jujube 2605 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 2.06%. As of the end of the week, the latest price was 9,150, up 35 or 0.38% [12]. - **Top 20 positions**: As of the end of the week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 20,939 lots [13]. - **Warehouse receipts**: As of the end of the week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was 2,523 [16]. - **Futures spread**: As of the end of the week, the spread between the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures 2605 contract and the 2609 contract was - 160 yuan/ton [20]. - **Basis**: As of the end of the week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei grey jujubes and the main contract of jujube futures was 320 yuan/ton [23]. - **Purchase price in the main production areas**: As of January 9, 2026, the purchase price of general jujubes in Aksu was 5.15 yuan/kg, in Alar was 5.65 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar was 6.5 yuan/kg [26]. - **Spot price of first - grade jujubes**: As of January 9, 2026, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 4.1 yuan/jin, and in Henan was 4.15 yuan/jin [30]. - **Spot price of special - grade jujubes**: As of January 9, 2026, the spot price of special - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 9.47 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price in Henan was 9.5 yuan/kg [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply side - Inventory**: As of January 8, 2026, the physical inventory of 36 sample jujube points was 15,300 tons, a decrease of 349 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 41.27% [38]. - **Supply side - Production**: The jujube output in the 2025/26 production season is expected to decline [42]. - **Demand side - Export volume**: In November 2025, China's jujube export volume was 3,537,566 kilograms, with an export value of 53,004,642 yuan and an average export price of 14,983.36 yuan/ton. The export volume increased by 60.42% month - on - month and decreased by 5.18% year - on - year. From January to November, the cumulative export was 29,291,188 kilograms, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.50% [46]. - **Demand side - BOCE trading**: This week, the order volume of BOCE Xinjiang Zao Hao Pai had a small amount of transactions [51]. 3.4 Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - **Options market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money jujube options this week is provided, but specific data is not summarized here [52]. - **Stock market - Haoxiangni**: Information about the price - earnings ratio of Haoxiangni is presented, but specific data is not summarized here [54].

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.09」 铝类市场周报 宏观支撑VS淡季影响，铝类震荡波动放大 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 电解铝：基本面原料端，原料氧化铝低位运行，电解铝厂理论利润情况较好，生产开工情绪仍积极。供给端，国内电 解铝新投产能陆续运行，但因行业天花板的限制，整体供给量较为平稳。需求端，由于淡季作用，下游新增订单有所 回落，加之铝价在宏观因素的作用下表现强劲，下游对高价铝的接受度有限，现货市场成交情况较谨慎，铝锭库存持 续积累。整体来看，沪铝基本面或处于供给小增、需求谨慎的阶段。 观点总结：沪铝主力合约轻仓震荡交易，注意操作节奏及风险控制。 3 行情回顾：沪铝震荡偏强，周涨跌幅+6.13%，报24330元/吨。氧化铝冲高回落，周涨跌+2.34%，报2843元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，铝土矿价格小幅回落，港口库存略有下滑，后续随着海外进口矿的到港，国内土矿库存或有 回升 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of strong expectations but weak reality, with the market likely to fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading of the RB2605 contract in the range of 3100 - 3220 yuan/ton, while paying attention to market changes and risk control [9]. - Given the positive macro - expectations and the sluggish performance of the rebar industry, it is advisable to simultaneously sell out - of - the - money call and put options [62]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Summary 3.1.1. Market Review - As of January 9, the closing price of the main rebar contract was 3144 yuan/ton (+22), and the spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3340 yuan/ton (+20) [7]. - Rebar production increased to 191.04 million tons (+2.82), a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 million tons [7]. - The apparent demand further declined, with this period's apparent demand at 174.96 million tons (-25.48), a year - on - year decrease of 15.09 million tons [7]. - Both factory and social inventories increased. The total rebar inventory was 438.11 million tons (+16.08), a year - on - year increase of 20.26 million tons [7]. - The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 12.99 percentage points from the same period last year [7]. 3.1.2. Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, the US Congressional Budget Office expects the Fed to cut interest rates slightly this year. Domestically, the central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy, and the CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year [9]. - **Cost - aspect**: Iron ore port inventories continued to increase, and coking coal and coke stopped falling and rebounded, but may enter range - bound trading [9]. - **Technical - aspect**: The RB2605 contract first rose and then fell, with technical support at the 3100 level [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price**: The RB2605 contract first rose and then fell this week and was weaker than the RB2610 contract. On the 9th, the spread was - 52 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton [15]. - **Warehouse receipts and net positions**: On January 9, the rebar warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1811 tons week - on - week, and the net short position of the top 20 in the rebar futures contract increased by 30564 lots [22]. - **Spot price and basis**: On January 9, the spot price of Hangzhou rebar increased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the national average price increased by 5 yuan/ton. The basis weakened, with the basis on the 9th at 196 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3. Upstream Market - **Raw material prices**: On January 9, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port increased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port decreased by 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [34]. - **Iron ore supply**: The arrival volume at 45 ports increased, and port inventories increased. The inventory of Australian ore, Brazilian ore, and trade ore all increased [38]. - **Coking plant situation**: The capacity utilization rate of coking plants increased, and coke inventories decreased. The total coking coal inventory increased, and the available days of coking coal increased [42]. 3.4. Industry Situation 3.4.1. Supply - side - **Crude steel production**: In November 2025, China's crude steel production was 69.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9% [46]. - **Rebar production**: On January 8, the weekly rebar production increased by 2.82 million tons week - on - week, and the weekly capacity utilization rate increased by 0.62% week - on - week [50][53]. - **Electric furnace steel**: The average operating rate of 95 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased by 4.34 percentage points month - on - month [53]. - **Rebar inventory**: On January 8, the total rebar inventory increased by 16.08 million tons month - on - month [56]. 3.4.2. Demand - side - **Real estate**: From January to November 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, and new housing starts decreased by 20.5% [59]. - **Infrastructure**: From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [59]. 3.5. Options Market - Due to the positive macro - expectations and the sluggish performance of the rebar industry, it is recommended to simultaneously sell out - of - the - money call and put options [62].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc rose and then pulled back, with a weekly gain of 2.99% and an amplitude of 4.79%. It is expected that Shanghai Zinc will enter an adjustment period, and attention should be paid to the support at MA10, with the range between 23,700 and 24,300 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Zinc rose and then pulled back this week, with a weekly gain of 2.99% and an amplitude of 4.79%. The closing price of the main contract was 23,970 yuan/ton [4] - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomically, the US labor market shows no obvious pressure, the number of initial jobless claims last week increased slightly to 208,000, lower than the expected 212,000; US bond yields rebounded, and the US dollar reached a four - week high. Fundamentally, the import volume of upstream zinc ore is at a high level, but domestic zinc mines are reducing production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters to purchase domestic ores has increased, and the processing fees at home and abroad have both dropped significantly. The profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, and production is expected to continue to be restricted. Recently, the price of LME zinc has pulled back, the Shanghai - London ratio has rebounded, and the export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening, while policy support in the automotive and other fields brings some bright spots. The downstream market mainly purchases on demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has risen rapidly, downstream purchases are scarce, the spot premium is high and stable, but domestic inventories have rebounded significantly; the accumulation of LME zinc inventories has slowed down, and the spot premium remains low. Technically, the position has decreased and the price has adjusted, the bullish sentiment has declined, and there is resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [4] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: As of January 9, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 23,970 yuan/ton, up 695 yuan/ton or 2.99% from December 31, 2025; as of January 8, 2026, the closing price of LME zinc was 3,135 US dollars/ton, up 9 US dollars/ton or 0.29% from January 2, 2026 [7] - **Net Position Adjustment**: As of January 9, 2026, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc was 4,778 lots, a decrease of 638 lots from December 31, 2025. The open interest of Shanghai Zinc was 218,053 lots, an increase of 22,611 lots or 11.57% from December 31, 2025 [14] - **Price Spreads**: As of January 9, 2026, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was - 360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 710 yuan/ton from December 31, 2025; the lead - zinc futures price spread was 6,615 yuan/ton, an increase of 695 yuan/ton from December 31, 2025 [17] - **Spot Premiums**: As of January 9, 2026, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 24,010 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton or 2.78% from December 31, 2025. The spot premium was 105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from last week. As of January 8, 2026, the spread between the near - month and 3 - month LME zinc was - 42.57 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.89 US dollars/ton from December 31, 2025 [23] - **Inventory Changes**: As of January 8, 2026, the LME refined zinc inventory was 108,000 tons, an increase of 375 tons or 0.35% from December 31, 2025. As of December 31, 2025, the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 69,793 tons, a decrease of 3,170 tons or 4.34% from last week. As of January 8, 2026, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 113,300 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons or 4.04% from December 31, 2025 [26] 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In October 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.1009 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.21% and a year - on - year increase of 4.87%. In November 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 519,018.96 tons, a month - on - month increase of 52.31% and a year - on - year increase of 14.06% [32] - **Supply Side** - **Global Supply Shortage**: In October 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.2187 million tons, an increase of 0.1084 million tons or 9.76% compared with the same period last year; the global refined zinc consumption was 1.2193 million tons, an increase of 0.0442 million tons or 3.76% compared with the same period last year; the global refined zinc gap was 0.06 million tons, compared with a gap of 0.0648 million tons in the same period last year. The WBMS report shows that the supply - demand balance of the global zinc market was - 35,700 tons in September 2024 [37][38] - **Expected Output Decline**: In November 2025, the zinc output was 654,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.3%; from January to November, the cumulative zinc output was 6.842 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% [41] - **Increased Exports**: In November 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 18,229.93 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.15%; the export volume of refined zinc was 42,815.55 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8748.45% [45] - **Downstream** - **Galvanized Sheets**: From January to November 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 982,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.63%. In November 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.91%; the export volume was 317,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% [48][49] - **Real Estate**: From January to November 2025, the new housing construction area was 534.567 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.58%; the housing completion area was 394.5393 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.58%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 8.514519 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%; among them, personal mortgage loans were 1.178591 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1% [54][55] - **Infrastructure**: In November 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.9, a decrease of 0.52 from the previous month and a decrease of 0.61 from the same period last year. From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 0.13% year - on - year [60][61] - **Home Appliances**: In November 2025, the refrigerator output was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%; from January to November, the cumulative refrigerator output was 99.342 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The air - conditioner output was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%; from January to November, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 245.361 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% [63] - **Automobiles**: In November 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3,428,998 units, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; the automobile output was 3,531,579 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.76% [68]

研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 瑞达期货研究院 「 2026.01.09」 甲醇市场周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： MA2605合约短线预计在2200-2300区间波动。 3 行情回顾：本周港口甲醇市场继续走强运行为主，其中江苏价格波动区间在2210-2310元/吨，广 东价格波动在2190-2280元/吨。内地甲醇价格先涨后跌，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在 1843-1858元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间2123-2140元/吨。受港口价格上行、烯烃外采增 加及下游节后补库支撑，周内多地价格走高；但随后港口烯烃装置停车、下游原料库存高企的利 空因素显现，高价货源成交乏力，市场价格随之回落。 行情展望：近期国内甲醇检修、减产涉及产能损失量多于恢复涉及产能产出量，整体产量减少。 近期陕蒙甲醇项目运行相对平稳，但元旦小假期高速危化品限运，叠加叠加当前鲁北主力消费下 游原料库存高位，企业库存延续累积。港口方面，本周甲醇港 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Tin rose first and then pulled back, with a weekly increase of 9.17% and an amplitude of 11.84%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 352,540 yuan/ton. It is expected that Shanghai Tin will adjust at a high level in the short - term. Pay attention to the battle at the 350,000 mark. If it falls below the MA10, it may be under pressure again [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin rose first and then pulled back, with a weekly increase of 9.17% and an amplitude of 11.84%. The closing price of the main contract was 352,540 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - aspect**: The US labor market shows no obvious pressure. The number of initial jobless claims last week increased slightly to 208,000, lower than the expected 212,000. The US Treasury yield rebounded, and the US dollar reached a four - week high [5] - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: The import supply of domestic tin ore is still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain at a low level. The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply of tin ore, but the supply in other regions is still highly unstable. The overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. Due to the shortage of tin ore raw materials, most enterprises have low raw material inventories and are in a loss - making situation. It is expected that the production of refined tin will continue to be restricted and there will be no year - on - year increase. The export volume of Indonesia in November increased significantly, alleviating concerns about the limited supply from Indonesia. Recently, the import window is approaching to open, increasing import pressure [5] - **Demand**: Recently, downstream enterprises purchased on demand. Inventories continued to decline, and the spot premium was 500 yuan/ton. LME inventories remained stable, and the spot premium increased [5] - **Technical Aspect**: The position decreased and the price adjusted, and the long - position sentiment declined [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Price Changes**: As of January 9, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai Tin was 352,910 yuan/ton, a rise of 25,230 yuan/ton or 7.7% from December 31. As of January 8, 2026, the closing price of LME Tin was 43,750 US dollars/ton, a rise of 3,280 US dollars/ton or 8.1% from January 2. As of December 31, 2025, the basis of Shanghai Tin was 500 yuan/ton, compared with 0 yuan/ton last week [7][10] - **Ratio Changes**: As of January 9, 2026, the current ratio of Shanghai Tin to Shanghai Nickel was 2.54, an increase of 0.09 from December 31. As of January 7, 2026, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 8.07, a decrease of 0.02 from December 31 [15] - **Position Changes**: As of January 9, 2026, the position of Shanghai Tin was 105,695 lots, an increase of 17,907 lots or 20.4% from December 31. As of December 26, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Tin was -3,764 lots, a decrease of 2,393 lots from December 22, 2025 [19] 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side - **Tin Ore Import and Refined Tin Production**: In November 2025, the monthly import volume of tin ore concentrates was 15,099.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. From January to November this year, the import volume of tin ore concentrates was 118,119.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.51%. In October 2025, the production of refined tin was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October, the cumulative production of refined tin was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [25][26] - **Tin Ore Processing Fees**: On January 9, 2026, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, the same as on January 8, 2026. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, the same as on January 8, 2026. On January 9, 2026, the average price of 40% tin concentrate was 337,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,300 yuan/ton or 1.54% from January 8, 2026. The average price of 60% tin concentrate was 341,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,300 yuan/ton or 1.53% from January 8, 2026 [31] - **Refined Tin Import Window**: As of January 8, 2026, the import profit and loss of tin was 2,266.55 yuan/ton, a rise of 7,509.43 yuan/ton from January 2, 2026. In November 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 1,194.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 127.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.05%. From January to November, the cumulative import volume of refined tin was 20,949.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.21%. In November 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1,948.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.62% and a year - on - year increase of 33.73%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume of refined tin was 20,620.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.87% [36][37] - **Inventory Changes**: As of January 8, 2026, the total LME tin inventory was 5,405 tons, a decrease of 15 tons or 0.28% from December 31. As of January 9, 2026, the total tin inventory was 6,935 tons, a decrease of 1,001 tons or 12.61% from last week. As of January 9, 2026, the tin futures inventory was 6,429 tons, a decrease of 1,013 tons or 13.61% from December 31 [40] 3.3.2 Demand Side - **Philadelphia Semiconductor Index**: On January 8, 2026, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,436.1, a rise of 352.97 or 4.98% from December 31. From January to November 2025, the production of integrated circuits was 431.84 billion pieces, an increase of 36.57072 billion pieces or 9.25% compared with the same period last year [43][44] - **Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Export**: As of November 2025, the production of tin - plated sheets was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 9.09% from October 2025. As of November 2025, the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 147,375.58 tons, a decrease of 75,214.24 tons or 33.79% from October [47]