铁矿周报 2025 年 12 月 15 日 铁矿震荡承压 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/10 铁水跌破去年水平 ⚫ 需求端：钢厂检修规模扩大，铁水产量延续回落态 势，目前铁水已经低于去年水平。上周247家钢厂高 炉开工率78.63%，环比上周减少1.53个百分点，同比 去年减少1.92个百分点，日均铁水产量 229.2万吨， 环比上周减少3.10万吨，同比去年减少3.27万吨。 ⚫ 供应端：上周海外铁矿到港量减少，发运增加，均处 于历史同期高位水平，港口库存处于高位，供应压力 不减。上周全球铁矿石发运总3368.6万吨，环比增加 45.4万吨。库 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, copper prices rose first and then fell. The main reasons were that some hawkish officials opposed continuous interest rate cuts, the probability of continued rate cuts in January was low according to the CME observation tool, the expectation of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike might affect the global foreign exchange carry - trade market, and concerns about the bursting of the AI bubble led to asset selling in the metal market. Domestically, the central economic work conference emphasized flexible use of policies like reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, promoting a new real - estate development model [2][7]. - Overall, concerns about the bursting of the technology stock bubble in overseas markets on Friday and opposition to rate cuts from some hawkish officials on Thursday made the probability of continuous rate cuts in early next year slim, leading to a decline in market risk appetite. Fundamentally, the shortage of overseas concentrates persists, non - US inventories are low, and the artificial intelligence field offers broad demand prospects. It is expected that copper prices will slow their upward momentum and enter a high - level consolidation in the short term [2][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - LME copper price on December 12 was $11,552.50 per ton, down $112.50 (- 0.96%) from December 5. COMEX copper price was 535.84 cents per pound, down 9.56 cents (- 1.75%). SHFE copper price was 94,080 yuan per ton, up 1,300 yuan (1.40%). International copper price was 84,490 yuan per ton, up 1,100 yuan (1.32%). The Shanghai - London ratio rose from 7.95 to 8.14. LME spot premium dropped by 10.24% to $20.69 per ton, and Shanghai spot premium fell from 170 yuan to - 20 yuan [3]. - As of December 12, LME copper inventory increased by 3,350 tons (2.06%) to 165,900 tons, COMEX copper inventory increased by 13,765 short tons (3.15%) to 450,618 short tons, SHFE inventory increased by 484 tons (0.54%) to 89,371 tons, and Shanghai bonded - area inventory increased by 5,500 tons (5.80%) to 100,300 tons. Total inventory rose by 23,099 tons (2.95%) to 806,189 tons [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro - aspect: The Fed cut interest rates for the last time this year last Thursday, with the federal funds rate range at 3.5% - 3.75%. The dot - plot shows one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027. 7 officials expect no rate cut in 2026, and 4 expect two 25 - basis - point cuts. The probability of no rate cut in January next year is 75% according to the CME tool. Domestically, China's November CPI rose 0.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 1.2%. The PPI index was - 2.2% year - on - year but + 0.1% month - on - month [8]. - Supply - demand aspect: In 2026, the production of some overseas mines is expected to be flat with 2025, and the global concentrate supply growth rate will be less than 1.5%. Codelco's premium for 2026 Chinese CIF refined copper long - term contracts reached a record high of $350 per ton. Traditional industry demand is cooling, while emerging industries like new - energy vehicles, AI data centers, and industrial robots offer broad market space [9]. Industry News - Rio2 acquired a 99.1% stake in Peru's Condestable copper mine for $241 million. The mine has a 60 - plus - year production history, with a daily processing capacity of 8,400 tons, and is expected to produce about 27,000 tons of copper equivalent annually [11]. - Anglo American and Teck Resources' shareholders approved a $53 - billion all - stock, zero - premium merger. The combined Collahuasi and Quebrada Blanca copper mines may produce over one million tons of copper annually by the early 2030s [12]. - Chile's state - owned Codelco's copper production in October fell 14.3% to 111,000 tons, while BHP's Escondida mine production rose 11.7% to 120,600 tons, and Collahuasi mine production dropped 29.3% to 35,000 tons [13]. Relevant Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of copper prices, inventories, premiums, spreads, and other indicators, such as the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory changes, and the relationship between copper imports' profit and loss and other factors [17][19][22].

钢材周报 2025 年 12 月 15 日 部分钢材出口管制 期价震荡承压 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/9 ⚫ 宏观面：中央经济工作会议2025年12月10日至11日在北 京举行，会议明确坚持稳中求进的工作总基调，要继续 实施更加积极的财政政策。要继续实施适度宽松的货币 政策。房地产作为重点风险领域，强调着力稳定房地产 市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存 量商品房重点用于保障性住房等。商务部、海关总署公 布对部分钢铁产品实施出口许可证管理，自2026年1月 1日起执行。 ⚫ 基本面：上周螺纹产量179万吨，环比减少11万吨，表 需203万吨，减少14万吨，厂库141万吨，减少2万吨， 社库339万吨，减少22万吨，总库存480万吨，减少24万 吨。热卷产量309万吨，减少6万吨，厂库84万吨，增加 4万吨，社库313万吨，减少 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global trade pattern reshaping has damaged the US dollar's credit, strengthening the hedging and wealth preservation attributes of precious metals and restoring their monetary attributes. The long - term upward logic for gold and silver remains solid. In 2026, the Fed will be in an interest - rate cut cycle, and the weakening US dollar index will support the financial attribute premium of precious metals, providing continuous impetus for gold and silver [3]. - Silver started a catch - up rally in June 2025 and hit new highs. With limited supply adjustment ability globally, significant demand growth, and tight available inventory, silver will continue to benefit from the triple drivers of "strategic resource + financial attribute + industrial attribute". In the context of expected falling US interest rates and loose liquidity, funds may prefer to allocate silver with higher volatility. It is expected that the silver price will continue to rise with high volatility in 2026 and outperform gold [3]. - The main fluctuation range of the international gold price in 2026 is expected to be between 3800 - 5000 US dollars per ounce, the international silver price between 55 - 75 US dollars per ounce, and the gold - silver ratio will fall to a central level of 50 - 70 [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Precious Metals Market Review - In 2025, precious metal prices soared. Gold led the rise in the first half of the year due to increased uncertainty in US economic and trade policies after Trump's re - election, which boosted safe - haven demand. In late August, Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole Symposium and subsequent Fed rate cuts in September and October drove gold to new highs, with the COMEX futures main contract reaching a record high of 4398 US dollars per ounce on October 20 [8]. - Silver started a catch - up rally in June. After the US government proposed to include silver in the 2025 critical minerals list in August, concerns about high tariffs led to a large - scale transfer of silver, triggering a "short squeeze" in the London silver market. The silver price broke through the historical mark of 50 US dollars per ounce. As of December 11, the year - to - date increases of COMEX gold and silver futures main contracts were 61% and 113% respectively, and those of SHFE gold and silver main contracts were 55% and 94% respectively [9]. 3.2 Gold: Global Trade Pattern Reshaping and Damaged US Dollar Credit Provide Long - term Drivers for Gold - **US government debt expansion and weakened US dollar credit**: Trump's re - election in 2025 accelerated the reshaping of the global trade pattern. The "reciprocal tariff" policy and the large - scale debt increase under the Trump administration have depleted the US dollar's credit, increasing global economic uncertainty and boosting the safe - haven demand for gold [14][17]. - **Fed's dovish rate cuts**: The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December 2025 and restarted the purchase of short - term US Treasury bonds. The Fed's stance was more dovish than expected. In 2026, the rate - cut pace may be slow at first and then accelerate. The first half of the year may see a slower rate - cut pace to prevent inflation rebound, while the second half may see more rate cuts to support the mid - term elections [23][25]. - **Global central banks' gold purchases**: Global central banks have been increasing their gold reserves since 2008, especially after the Russia - Ukraine conflict in 2022. In 2025, central banks continued to buy gold, with net purchases in the first three quarters reaching 634 tons. China, Poland, and other countries were the main buyers. Global central bank gold holdings have exceeded US Treasury bond holdings, highlighting gold's strategic position [30][32]. - **Increased global gold investment demand**: Geopolitical and macro - economic uncertainties have strengthened gold's wealth preservation and hedging attributes. In the third quarter of 2025, global gold demand reached a record high, with investment demand driving the growth. Global gold ETFs had significant inflows, and China's gold ETFs also set new records [40][42]. 3.3 Silver: Strengthened Strategic Resource Attribute and Record - High Silver Prices - **Supply - demand gap expansion**: Global silver production has been stagnant for five years, and the growth of recycled silver is insufficient to fill the gap. Meanwhile, demand in the solar photovoltaic, automotive, and data center industries has increased, leading to a continuous expansion of the supply - demand gap [52][54]. - **Demand structure change**: Solar photovoltaic, electric vehicles and their infrastructure, and data centers and artificial intelligence are the three major drivers of silver demand growth. The use of silver in the photovoltaic field has increased rapidly, and the demand in the automotive and data center industries is also expected to grow steadily [57][58]. - **Strengthened strategic resource attribute**: After the US listed silver as a critical mineral in 2025, concerns about tariffs and inventory shortages have affected the silver market. The low inventory of LBMA silver and the increase in ETF holdings have led to a shortage of available silver, triggering a "short squeeze" in the London silver market [66][68]. - **Investment funds driving up prices**: The large lag in silver price increase compared to gold in the first half of 2025 made silver a value -洼地, attracting investment funds. In 2025, the holdings of global silver ETFs increased significantly, and physical silver investment also showed a rebound trend [71][73]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Operation Strategies - The long - term upward logic for precious metals remains solid due to the damaged US dollar credit. In 2026, the Fed's rate - cut cycle will support the financial attribute premium of precious metals. - Silver will continue to benefit from the triple drivers and is expected to rise with high volatility in 2026, outperforming gold. The international gold price is expected to fluctuate between 3800 - 5000 US dollars per ounce, the international silver price between 55 - 75 US dollars per ounce, and the gold - silver ratio will fall to 50 - 70 [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025 from January to November, the weighted index of palm oil prices fluctuated between rising and falling. The trading rhythm was affected by factors such as the expected difference and implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy, the release and progress of the US biodiesel policy, the expected difference in production and export demand, the uncertainty of China - Canada trade relations, and the repeated geopolitical situations causing greater fluctuations in crude oil prices [3][47] - In 2026, the global palm oil production is expected to increase by 2% - 3%, approximately 1.6 - 2.4 million tons, with the USDA estimating the global production at 80 million tons. Indonesia's production will only increase slightly due to policy - restricted planting area, possibly benefiting from improved technical management efficiency. Malaysia's palm oil production will remain at 20 million tons in 2026, basically the same as the previous year, mainly because of the aging of palm trees and the slow replanting progress [3][47] - Malaysia is currently facing high inventory pressure, and its subsequent tariffs may be adjusted to promote exports. The USDA expects the new - year export volume to be 16.1 million tons, a slight increase. Indonesia's export demand may increase slightly due to the postponement of the biodiesel policy, currently estimated at 23.7 million tons, with limited overall export demand growth. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is planned to be implemented in the second half of 2026, expected to bring an increment of 2 million tons, but it may be further postponed [3][47] - The global supply of soybeans and rapeseeds is expected to remain loose, and soybean and rapeseed oils still have price advantages, with substitution demand remaining. The Russia - Ukraine negotiation has entered the stage of a peace agreement, with supply expected to increase but demand growth slowing. Oil prices are generally weak and fluctuating at low levels, providing limited support to the oil market [3][48] - Overall, in 2026, the global palm oil production and edible consumption will maintain a trend of growth. The implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy will bring an increase in demand, maintaining a tight - balance pattern. Due to factors such as supply - demand mismatch, policy expectation differences, and geopolitical conflicts, there will be structural market conditions within the year, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely between 7,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton [3][48] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Market Review - In early 2025, palm oil prices continued to weaken. The failure of Indonesia's expected B40 policy in January, the strong US economic data leading to a stronger US dollar index suppressing the commodity market, and the high - priced palm oil suppressing market demand led to a continuous price decline. After the release of the USDA report in January, the significant downward adjustment of the yield per unit area and the Trump tariff policy boosting US soybean oil consumption demand led to a sharp rise in US soybean oil prices, causing palm oil prices to stop falling. After the Spring Festival, with domestic low - inventory status continuing, downstream enterprises actively replenished inventory, and the pre - Ramadan stocking demand, along with concerns about production due to excessive precipitation in the producing areas and Indonesia's re - emphasis on the upcoming implementation of the B40 policy, palm oil prices rose continuously. From late February to May, palm oil prices fluctuated and declined. In March, the producing areas entered the production - increasing season, the US tariff policy on the world raised concerns about market demand, the sharp decline in crude oil prices drove down the oil sector, and the continuous suspension of Indonesia's B40 biodiesel policy led to the price decline. From June to August, palm oil prices started to rise. The first - stage rise was mainly driven by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict and the sharp rise in crude oil prices, as well as the US biodiesel policy expectation after the passage of the large - scale and beautiful bill. The second - stage rise was mainly due to the positive impact of the July MPOB report, the news that Indonesia's B40 biodiesel policy was being gradually implemented and the B50 policy was in the testing and R & D stage. The third - stage rise was mainly because the inventory accumulation in the August MPOB report was less than expected, the preliminary ruling result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseeds was released, the US Environmental Protection Agency's biodiesel policy exemption obligation was less than expected, and US soybean oil prices were strongly boosted. In September, prices fluctuated due to the interweaving of multiple factors. In October, prices started to fall due to the continuous increase in monthly production, the increase in substitution by soybean oil due to its better cost - effectiveness, the weakening of palm oil export demand, the inventory accumulation exceeding expectations, and the supply becoming more relaxed [8] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 MPOB Report - The MPOB's monthly data shows that in November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.94 million tons, a 5.3% month - on - month decrease; the export volume was 1.21 million tons, a 28.13% month - on - month decrease; the ending inventory at the end of November was 2.84 million tons, higher than market expectations. The overall impact of the report was bearish. From December to March, Malaysia's palm oil enters the production - reducing season. With the approaching of the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, domestic stocking demand is expected to increase, providing good support for palm oil prices. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction process of Malaysian palm oil [19] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is currently at a high level compared to the same period. The official reference price in December 2025 was set at 4,206.38 ringgit/ton, lower than that in November. The export tariff rate is 10%, and the export mechanism may be adjusted later to reduce high inventory. About 30% of Malaysia's oil palm trees are over 19 years old, and about 12% are over 25 years old, with an average tree age of about 15 years, approaching the decline period after the peak of yield per unit area, resulting in a slowdown in production capacity growth. The replanting of palm trees requires a 3 - 5 - year sapling growth period, and the current replanting rate is 1% - 2%, lower than the level required to maintain production capacity. Therefore, Malaysia's palm oil production is estimated to be 20 million tons in 2026, roughly the same as in 2025 [20] 3.2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Export - According to the latest data from the SPPOMA, from November 1 - 30, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 2.09% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.36% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 0.19% month - on - month. According to the MPOA, from November 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's crude palm oil production increased by 3.24% compared to the same period of the previous month, with production in different regions all increasing [27][29] - According to the data of shipping survey institutions, from November 1 - 30, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil export volume decreased compared to the same period of the previous month. The export volume data from different institutions showed different degrees of decline [29] 3.2.3 Indonesia Situation - According to the data from the GAPKI, in September 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 4.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.24 million tons; the export volume was 2.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.27 million tons; the domestic consumption was 2.05 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,000 tons. The inventory in August 2025 was 2.59 million tons [32] - Indonesia's forestry working group composed of military personnel and law enforcement officials is strongly promoting the nationalization process of illegal plantations, having seized 3.7 million hectares of plantations, with a target of reaching 4 million hectares by the end of the year, accounting for 24.5% of the country's oil palm planting area. The USDA estimates the new - year production to be 47.5 million tons, with only a slight year - on - year increase, more relying on the improvement of government management efficiency rather than area expansion. If Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is implemented in the second half of 2026, it is expected to bring a demand increment of about 2 million tons in that year, while squeezing some export demand. If the policy is continuously postponed, part of the demand will be transferred to the export side [33] 3.2.4 India's Vegetable Oil Import - According to the data from the SEA, in October 2025, India's vegetable oil import volume was 1.33 million tons. From November 2024 to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 16.01 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 50,000 tons. Among different oils, the import volume of palm oil decreased year - on - year, the import volume of soybean oil increased year - on - year, and the import volume of sunflower oil decreased year - on - year [35][37] 3.2.5 China's Oil Import - According to the data from the General Administration of Customs of China, in October 2025, China's palm oil import volume was 220,000 tons, the rapeseed oil import volume was 141,000 tons, and the sunflower oil import volume was 32,000 tons. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume of the three major oils was 4.12 million tons, a year - on - year decrease compared to the previous year [39][40] 3.2.6 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the week of November 28, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.1975 million tons, a decrease of 26,500 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 246,200 tons compared to the same period of the previous year. With the approaching of the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, domestic stocking demand will increase, and there are more import orders than before. Currently, the domestic inventory growth has slowed down, and it is expected to maintain a slight growth trend. The trading volume is average, mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and the holiday effect will provide some support for prices [42] 3.3 Summary and Future Outlook - The content is basically the same as the core views, including the price fluctuations in 2025, the production and demand situation in 2026, the situation of related varieties, and the overall market pattern and price forecast [47][48]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The macro - policy adheres to the general principle of making progress while maintaining stability. The fiscal policy will be more proactive, and the monetary policy will be moderately loose. The government aims to stabilize the real - estate market [3][15][75]. - In 2025, the steel market was in a weak state. Real - estate investment and new - construction area declined, dragging down the demand for construction steel. Manufacturing and exports provided some support, with good plate consumption. Overall terminal demand was weak, and China's steel demand in 2026 is expected to slightly shrink. In terms of supply, the total steel output in 2025 remained high, with a significant decline in long - product output and a relatively small decline in plate output. In 2026, the crude - steel output regulation policy is likely to keep the output at a level similar to or slightly lower than that in 2025 [3][75]. - In 2026, steel futures are expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern. Macro - policies can provide a floor, but strong stimulation is unlikely. Weak demand and stable supply in the fundamental aspect. The decline in real - estate steel demand is the main drag, and the resilience of manufacturing and exports can only provide partial support, unable to offset the overall contraction in demand. The supply side has limited elasticity under output regulation, and cost and inventory pressures persist. The steel - price center will move downwards. The reference price ranges are 2,600 - 3,300 yuan/ton for rebar and 2,700 - 3,500 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coils [3][76]. Summary by Directory 1. Steel Market Review - In 2025, steel futures went through three stages: "falling first, then rising, and then falling back". In the first half of the year, due to weak domestic real - estate demand, unfulfilled peak - season expectations, and unexpected macro and overseas tariff policies, steel prices declined. In July, policies and supply tightening led to a rapid price rebound, but later, due to unfulfilled policy expectations, prices fell back. From September to October, the "peak season" was not prosperous, and in the seasonal off - season from November, prices were weak and volatile. The overall price center of the year moved down [10][11]. 2. Demand: Real - Estate Drag and Manufacturing Support - **Fifteenth Five - Year Plan Start**: In 2025, China's macro - policies adhered to the principle of making progress while maintaining stability. Fiscal policy was proactive, supporting key areas and preventing local - government debt risks. Monetary policy was flexible and precise, aiming to maintain economic growth and stable exchange rates. The core tasks of the "Fifteenth Five - Year Plan" include building a modern industrial system, implementing innovation - driven strategies, expanding domestic demand, and deepening reform and opening - up. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies and stabilizing the real - estate market [13][14][15]. - **Real - Estate Drag**: In 2025, real - estate policies focused on risk prevention and market stability. In 2026, the focus will be on building a new development model. In 2025, real - estate development investment continued to decline, with "three major projects" providing some support. In 2026, real - estate development investment is expected to decline by 8 - 10% year - on - year, and real - estate steel demand is expected to decline by 8 - 10% year - on - year, with its proportion in total steel demand dropping to about 21% [16][17][18]. - **Infrastructure Rebound**: In 2025, infrastructure investment was moderately ahead of schedule, with a focus on structural optimization. Investment in new infrastructure and energy infrastructure increased. Although the overall infrastructure investment declined slightly in the first 10 months, the steel demand in energy and water - conservancy sectors grew significantly. In 2026, infrastructure investment is expected to grow steadily, and infrastructure will remain an important support for steel consumption [22][23]. - **Stable Manufacturing Growth**: In 2025, the machinery industry was robust, with the excavator industry and ship - building industry performing well. The automobile industry had high production and sales, especially in new - energy vehicles. The home - appliance industry underperformed the market, with domestic sales being high in the first half and low in the second half and exports facing pressure. In 2026, domestic home - appliance demand may be under pressure, while overseas production may increase. Overall, manufacturing activities showed marginal improvement, but demand was not yet solid [30][31][32]. - **High and Stable Steel Exports with Increasing Resistance**: In 2025, China's steel exports reached a record high. Although exports to some countries decreased due to anti - dumping measures, exports to other regions increased significantly. The export structure was mainly composed of plates, pipes, and bars. In 2025, the export of hot - rolled coils decreased, while the export of building materials and billets increased [39]. - **Weak Domestic Demand, Strong Plates and Weak Long Products**: In 2025, the steel market was weak, with real - estate investment and new - construction area declining, dragging down construction - steel demand. Manufacturing and exports provided some support, with good plate consumption. In 2026, China's steel demand is expected to slightly shrink, with real - estate remaining a drag and plate demand remaining relatively resilient [44]. 3. Supply: High - Volume Pressure and Structural Differentiation - **Policy - Guided Supply Control and Quality Improvement**: In 2025, the steel industry issued two core policies to regulate the industry, optimize the structure, and promote growth. In 2025, steel supply was at a high level, with strong plate production and weak long - product production, and a front - heavy and back - light production rhythm. In 2026, China's steel supply is expected to continue the trend of total - volume control and structural optimization, with crude - steel output likely to be similar to or slightly lower than that in 2025 [50][51][52]. - **Better - than - Average Steel - Mill Profits**: In 2025, the steel industry's profitability was high in the first half and low in the second half. The profit in the first half came from cost reduction, while the profit in the fourth quarter turned into a loss. In 2026, steel mills are expected to maintain a meager - profit state due to pressure from the demand side and high - price fluctuations in raw materials [63]. - **Inventory Analysis**: In 2025, steel inventory pressure increased gradually. Inventory was low in the first half and accumulated significantly in the second half. The inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils was higher than that of rebar. Weak terminal demand led to continuous pressure on steel prices from inventory, and if demand does not improve, the inventory contradiction may intensify [64]. 4. Market Outlook - In 2026, steel futures are expected to continue the volatile and weak pattern. Macro - policies can provide a floor but are unlikely to have strong stimulation. Weak demand and stable supply in the fundamental aspect. The decline in real - estate steel demand is the main drag, and the resilience of manufacturing and exports can only provide partial support, unable to offset the overall contraction in demand. The supply side has limited elasticity under output regulation, and cost and inventory pressures persist. The steel - price center will move downwards, with the reference price ranges of 2,600 - 3,300 yuan/ton for rebar and 2,700 - 3,500 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coils [76].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the US dollar index fell, and commodities generally strengthened, with gold, silver, and copper rising significantly, while oil prices continued to adjust under the expectation of loose supply and demand. In China, the central economic work conference emphasized "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency," and the policy in 2026 will still focus on "stability" [2][3]. - The continued strengthening of the interest rate cut expectation supported the rise of precious metals, and the silver price reached a new high. The central economic work conference released positive signals, and the copper price is expected to continue to run strongly at a high level in the short term. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to inventory reduction, while the alumina price continues to be weak due to oversupply [4][6][8]. - The zinc price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the tightening of zinc ore supply and the decline of social inventory. The lead price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate due to low inventory and differentiated consumption. The tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to favorable fundamentals [12][13][14]. - The industrial silicon price is expected to decline weakly due to the weakening of demand. The steel price is expected to fluctuate due to general industrial data. The iron ore price is expected to be under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand. The double - coke price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the weakening of demand in the off - season [16][17][18]. - The soybean meal futures are expected to stop falling and stabilize and enter a shock operation due to good soybean auction results. The palm oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to the rise of rapeseed oil and the expected increase in palm oil inventory [21][24]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomics - Overseas: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 44,000 to 236,000, the largest single - week increase in four and a half years. The stock market showed a differentiated trend, and the US dollar index fell to 98.1 after the Fed's interest rate cut [2]. - Domestic: The central economic work conference emphasized "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency," and the policy in 2026 will still focus on "stability." The A - share market fell on Thursday, and the bond market continued to rebound and repair [3]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, international precious metal futures continued to rise. COMEX gold futures rose 2.00% to $4309.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.83% to $63.98 per ounce. The market's bet on the continued interest rate cut in January was strengthened, and the silver price reached a new high, driving the synchronous rise of gold, platinum, and palladium [4]. Copper - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper continued to rise, and LME copper broke through the $11,800 line. The macro environment at home and abroad improved, and the supply of concentrates continued to tighten. It is expected that the copper price will continue to run strongly at a high level in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,970 yuan per ton, up 0.23%. The aluminum ingot inventory continued to decline, mainly due to transportation problems in the northwest. The low inventory supported the aluminum price to fluctuate strongly [8]. Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2,469 yuan per ton, down 1.4%. The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern, and the market short - selling atmosphere is strong, so the price continues to be weak [10]. Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 20,965 yuan per ton, up 0.36%. The raw material supply is tight, the consumption is weak, and the demand side is waiting and seeing. It is expected that the cast aluminum price will fluctuate at a high level [11]. Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc first rose and then fell during the day and rebounded sharply at night. The supply of zinc ore continued to tighten, the processing fees at home and abroad were under pressure, and the social inventory decreased. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate strongly in the short term [12]. Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated narrowly during the day and sideways at night. The production of primary and secondary lead smelters decreased, and the social inventory was at a low level, but the consumption was differentiated. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate and consolidate [13]. Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated narrowly during the day and closed up at night. The supply of tin ore was affected by the conflict in Congo - Kinshasa, and the demand for AI semiconductors was optimistic. It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate strongly [14]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, industrial silicon fluctuated narrowly. The supply is converging, and the demand is weakening. The establishment of a polysilicon platform company may drag down the short - term demand. It is expected that the industrial silicon price will decline weakly [15][16]. Steel (Spiral and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures fluctuated and fell. The industrial data was average, and the supply and demand were both weak. It is expected that the steel price will fluctuate [17]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures fluctuated and fell. The demand was weak, the supply was strong, and the inventory increased. It is expected that the iron ore price will be under pressure [18]. Double - Coke (Coking Coal and Coke) - On Thursday, double - coke futures fluctuated weakly. The demand in the off - season was weak, the supply was strong, and the inventory increased. It is expected that the double - coke price will fluctuate weakly [19]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the 05 contract of soybean meal closed flat, and the 05 contract of rapeseed meal rose 0.35%. The soybean auction results were good, and there was news that the customs clearance time of imported soybeans might be extended. It is expected that the soybean meal futures will stop falling and stabilize and enter a shock operation [20][21]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, the 01 contract of palm oil rose 0.44%. The production of Malaysian palm oil in early December increased, and the inventory was expected to rise. The rapeseed oil price rose due to quarantine problems. It is expected that the palm oil price will fluctuate within a range [23][24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The IMF expects the global economic growth rate to slightly slow down to 3.1% in 2026. Overseas macro themes will return to global central bank monetary policies, the US dollar exchange - rate center, and AI - driven global industrial transformation. The US may see further fermentation of the Fed's easing expectations, while the eurozone will enter a cycle of low - inflation and weak recovery. China's economy is expected to maintain stable growth under the dual - loose tone of monetary and fiscal policies. Global electrification transformation and the AI technological revolution will drive copper consumption growth [4][115]. - In terms of supply, the growth rate of global copper concentrate supply in 2026 may be less than 1.5% due to slow resumption of overseas interrupted mines and limited release of new production capacity. Domestic refined copper production is expected to decline by 2.5% year - on - year in 2026 due to low processing fees and reduced imports caused by a shortage of overseas non - US supplies [4][115]. - In terms of demand, new energy vehicles are expected to maintain strong growth, grid investment will maintain a steady growth rate, the wind and photovoltaic industries will shift from high - growth to high - quality development, and AI computing power demand will drive the data - center construction into a new cycle. It is estimated that the domestic refined copper consumption growth rate will maintain at 2.1% in 2026, and there will be a supply gap of 630,000 tons in the domestic refined copper market [4][116]. - In 2026, copper prices are expected to continue rising under the background of a warming global macro - environment and a tight supply - demand fundamental situation. The main operating range of Shanghai copper is expected to be between 83,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton, and that of London copper is expected to be between 10,300 - 12,500 US dollars/ton [4][116]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025 Market Review - The copper price in 2025 showed a trend of first hitting the bottom and then rebounding. In the first quarter, it rose from 73,000 to a maximum of 83,000 due to factors such as the easing of trade concerns and AI - driven optimistic expectations. In April, it dropped significantly due to US tariff concerns. In the second quarter, it rebounded due to China's export resilience and domestic macro - economic policies. In the third quarter, it rose again due to intensified overseas mine - end disturbances. In the fourth quarter, it reached a new high under the resonance of macro and fundamental factors. By December 5, the Shanghai copper main contract rose by 25.8% year - on - year, and the London copper rose by 32.8% year - on - year [11]. - Domestic copper inventory first increased and then decreased in 2025. The social inventory of electrolytic copper in the second half of the year remained at a low level below 200,000 tons. The overall supply - demand structure was in a tight - balance state, and it is expected that the tight - balance will continue in 2026 with a downward trend in absolute inventory [15][16]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **US and Eurozone Economic Situations**: The IMF expects the global economic growth rate to be 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. The US economy is driven by traditional manufacturing and AI, but trade protectionism may challenge the global supply - chain elasticity. The eurozone economy shows a weak - recovery trend, with the performance of Germany and France diverging [18][19][20]. - **Monetary Policies**: The Fed may have about two interest - rate cuts in 2026, and inflation is expected to rise moderately in the first half of the year and then gradually return to the 2% target. The ECB is expected to maintain a stable monetary - policy stance, and the risk of inflation rising due to tariff policies is low [21][22][24]. - **China's Economic Situation**: China's economy maintained stable growth in 2025. In 2026, China will implement expansionary fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, focusing on high - quality development, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" will promote new economic growth points [25][26][27]. 3. Copper Ore Supply Analysis - **Supply Disturbances and TC Forecast**: In 2025, global mainstream copper mines faced frequent supply disturbances, and the actual growth rate of copper concentrate supply was low. The annual long - term contract TC is expected to hit a new low in 2026 [28][32]. - **Growth Rate Forecast**: Without considering interference factors, the global mainstream mines will contribute about 980,000 tons of new copper - concentrate output in 2025, but the actual growth rate is only 1%. In 2026, the new output will be 533,000 tons, and the actual growth rate may be less than 1.5% [34]. 4. Refined Copper Supply Analysis - **Domestic Production and Reduction Plan**: China's electrolytic copper production increased in 2025. However, the state will strictly control the expansion of electrolytic - copper smelting capacity, and CSPT members may jointly cut production by more than 10% in 2026. It is expected that the domestic refined - copper output will decrease in 2026 [44][45][46]. - **Overseas Capacity Release**: Overseas refined - copper capacity release in 2026 is limited. Some overseas smelters have stopped or reduced production, and the net new capacity is only about 600,000 tons, accounting for 2.1% of the global total in 2025 [47][48]. - **Import Volume Forecast**: China's refined - copper imports showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing in 2025. In 2026, imports are expected to decline to 3.1 - 3.2 million tons due to high premiums of overseas US - dollar supplies [51][52]. - **Scrap - Copper Import and Recycling**: In 2025, China's scrap - copper imports shifted from the US to Southeast Asia. In the future, China will strengthen the internal recycling of scrap - copper resources, and the refined - scrap price difference is expected to narrow slightly in 2026 [65][66]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of November 26, 2025, the global visible inventory increased significantly. Overseas inventory had a structural mismatch, and non - US inventory may remain at a low level. Domestic inventory is expected to decline slightly in 2025 [71]. 5. Refined Copper Demand Analysis - **Grid Investment**: China's grid investment in 2025 was lower than the target. During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, the total grid investment will exceed 5 trillion yuan, and the investment growth rate in 2026 is expected to be 3 - 3.5% [75]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market in 2025 was in a downturn. In 2026, the industry will focus on high - quality development, but the copper consumption in the real estate sector is expected to decline by more than 10% [76][77][78]. - **Air - Conditioning Industry**: The air - conditioning industry in 2025 faced challenges such as the uncertainty of national - subsidy policy continuation and weak external demand. The copper consumption growth rate in 2026 is expected to drop to 4 - 5% [79][80][81]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In 2025, new energy vehicles maintained strong growth. In 2026, although the purchase - subsidy policy will be adjusted, the sales are still expected to reach 1.85 million vehicles, and the copper - consumption growth rate will drop to about 15% [82][83][84]. - **Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: The global photovoltaic - installation capacity is expected to decline in 2026. China's photovoltaic - installation capacity will remain between 235 - 270GW. The wind - power growth rate may gradually get out of the trough, but the copper - consumption growth rate in the photovoltaic and wind - power industries is expected to decline [86][88]. - **AI Data Centers**: The demand for AI computing power is driving the data - center construction into a new cycle. The global data - center scale is expected to reach 95GW in 2026, bringing about 1 million tons of copper - consumption increment [91][92]. - **Overall Consumption Forecast**: In 2026, new trends will drive domestic refined - copper consumption growth, and the consumption growth rate is expected to be 2.1% [95]. 6. 2026 Market Outlook - **Macroeconomic and Fundamental Factors**: The global economic growth rate will slow down slightly in 2026. The supply of global copper concentrate will be tight, and domestic refined - copper supply will decline. The demand for refined copper will maintain growth, resulting in a supply gap of 630,000 tons in the domestic market [115][116]. - **Price Forecast**: Copper prices are expected to continue rising in 2026, with the main operating range of Shanghai copper between 83,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton and that of London copper between 10,300 - 12,500 US dollars/ton [116].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251211 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：12 月 FOMC 偏鸽降息落地，国内关注中央经济工作会议 海外方面，美联储以 9：3 通过降息 25BP 至 3.50%～3.75%，但内部分歧明显：Miran 支 持降息 2 码，两名票委倾向按兵不动。声明稿重新加入"审慎评估降息幅度与时机"，暗示 连续降息接近尾声。①点阵图显示 2026、2027 年各降息一次，与 9 月一致，表明美联储仍 在降息通道内，但因政策利率已逼近 3%的中性区，后续节奏将放缓；②SEP 上修 2026 年 GDP 至 2.3%，下修通胀预测，表明美联储认为三次预防性降息足以稳经济、防就业下行， 关税冲击被视为一次性，通胀仍将回落；③在 12 月初结束缩表后，美联储宣布自 12 月启动 RMP，每月购买 400 亿短债，为期或达 4 个月，以维持充裕的准备金、稳定短端利率。本次 FOMC 的基调没有市场预期的"鹰派式降息"那么鹰，资产价格反应积极：美股走强，美债 利率回落，美元指数降至 98.5，金、银、铜全线上行 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, supported by the dual - loose expectations of monetary and fiscal policies in the US, the economy is expected to recover moderately, and the US dollar is likely to fluctuate at a high level, reducing the suppression of risk assets. China will enter the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", with the economy growing steadily, and fiscal and monetary policies remaining moderately loose. The resonance of domestic and foreign policies is expected to improve the marginal demand for commodities [4][107]. - In terms of supply, the global zinc concentrate increment in 2026 will be about 500,000 metal tons, narrowing compared to 2025, and the raw material supply - demand will turn to a tight balance. The long - term processing fee is expected to rise, but the recovery of overseas refined zinc supply is limited. In China, the smelting capacity continues to expand, but the growth rate of refined zinc production will slow down to 5%, and the actual capacity release of the Huoshaoyun project is the core variable of the domestic supply pattern [4][107]. - The demand shows the characteristics of "slowing growth and sector differentiation". The infrastructure investment growth rate is expected to recover to 4% - 5%, and the projects will be launched in advance. The policy of replacing old with new supports durable - goods consumption, but the growth of automobile production and sales slows down, the policy effect of home appliances weakens, and exports are under pressure. The real estate is still at the bottom - grinding stage, and its drag on zinc consumption is weakening. In the new energy field, the new photovoltaic installations turn negative due to the high base, while the wind power maintains positive growth. The export resilience of primary products will provide consumption increments [4][107]. - Overall, the global zinc mining and smelting are still in the expansion cycle, the supply growth of zinc elements exceeds the demand growth, and the oversupply situation expands slightly. The core logic of zinc price pressure remains unchanged. However, the macro - drive is positive, and the positive expectations of copper and aluminum are expected to partially offset the short - board of zinc fundamentals. In 2026, the zinc price is difficult to show a unilateral market, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 21,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton. There will be phased unilateral opportunities during the macro - micro resonance stage, and the structural opportunities are anchored on the main line of price ratio repair [4][108]. Summary According to the Directory I. Zinc Market Review - In 2025, the zinc market was weak overall, with prominent internal - external structural contradictions. The price fluctuated downward under the influence of macro - policies and fundamental factors. In the first half of the year, factors such as Trump's possible tariff policy and the Fed's suspension of interest - rate cuts suppressed the zinc price. In the second half, the market was in a pattern of "repeated policy expectations and stalemate fundamentals", and the Shanghai zinc main contract fluctuated in the range of 21,600 - 23,200 yuan/ton. The LME zinc showed a trend of first falling and then rising, and the price rebounded due to the decline in LME inventory [9][10]. II. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 US - In 2025, the US economy achieved a soft landing. The GDP growth rate was 2%, lower than 2.8% in 2024. The ISM manufacturing PMI was in the contraction range, the employment market declined, and inflation rebounded moderately. The Fed started preventive interest - rate cuts in September. In 2026, the GDP growth rate is expected to be 2.1%. The impact of tariffs will weaken, and inflation may decline slightly. The fiscal and monetary policies are expected to remain loose, but the change of the Fed chairman may affect the interest - rate cut path. The US dollar is expected to fluctuate, which will relieve the suppression of commodities [13][14]. 2.2 Eurozone - In 2025, the Eurozone economy recovered slightly in the first three quarters, with a GDP growth rate of 1.2%. Inflation dropped to 2.1%, and the ECB kept the key interest rate unchanged since July. In 2026, the GDP growth rate is expected to be 1.1%, and the internal differentiation will continue. Germany's economy may recover, while France's growth may slow down. Inflation is expected to stabilize around 2%, and the ECB's monetary policy is expected to remain stable. The fiscal policy may expand structurally [15][16]. 2.3 China - In 2025, China's economic growth showed a "high - in - the - front and low - in - the - back" feature, with an annual growth rate of about 5%. Exports were strong, but domestic consumption and private investment were weak. In 2026, as the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", the economy is expected to grow steadily, with a GDP growth target of about 5%. The quarterly growth rate may be "low - in - the - front and high - in - the - back". Exports are expected to benefit from the relaxation of Sino - US trade frictions and the fiscal loosening in Europe and the US. The fiscal policy will be more active, and the monetary policy will remain moderately loose [17][18]. III. Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - In 2025, the global zinc concentrate new capacity was 700,000 tons, with an increment of 700,000 metal tons to 12.7 million tons. In 2026, the new capacity will narrow to 500,000 tons to 13.2 million tons. The domestic market will contribute the main increment. The supply - demand pattern is expected to turn from loose to tight balance [29][30]. - The internal and external processing fees first rose and then fell in 2025. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee dropped to 2,000 yuan/metal ton at the end of the year. The import processing fee also declined in November. The CZSPT proposed a 2026Q1 import processing fee guidance of 105 - 120 US dollars/dry ton. In 2025, the zinc ore import increased significantly, and it is expected to remain above 5 million tons in 2026 [36][37][38]. 3.2 Refined Zinc Supply - In 2025, the global refined zinc production increased by 4.12% year - on - year. Overseas production decreased by 5.48% in the first nine months, while China's increased by 7.03%. In 2026, overseas refined zinc production is expected to increase slightly by 50,000 - 100,000 tons, but the recovery is limited due to factors such as cost and raw material supply [44][48]. - In 2025, China's refined zinc production increased by 10.7% year - on - year. In 2026, the production is expected to increase by 350,000 tons to 7.2 million tons, with a growth rate slowing down to 5.1%. The actual production of the Xinjiang Kunlun Zinc Industry project is an important variable. In 2025, the net import of refined zinc was about 250,000 - 260,000 tons, and in 2026, the import and export volume may offset each other [53][54][57]. 3.3 Refined Zinc Demand - Globally, in 2025, the refined zinc consumption increased by 3.9% year - on - year. In 2026, India's zinc demand is expected to continue to expand, the US zinc consumption is expected to grow steadily, and Europe's traditional consumption may improve marginally while the green industry will support consumption [67][68]. - In China, in 2025, the apparent consumption increased by more than 8%, but the actual consumption was weak. The primary product exports were strong, and the galvanized sheet export is expected to continue to grow in 2026. Traditional consumption such as infrastructure and real estate was weak in 2025, and infrastructure investment is expected to recover in 2026. The real estate is still at the bottom - grinding stage, and its drag on zinc consumption will weaken. The growth of automobile and home appliance sales will slow down in 2026. In the new energy field, the new photovoltaic installations may turn negative, while the wind power will maintain positive growth [71][73][77]. 3.4 Global Visible Inventory - In 2025, the global visible inventory had prominent structural contradictions. The LME inventory decreased, and the low inventory supported the LME zinc price. The domestic inventory increased, suppressing the Shanghai zinc price. In 2026, the LME inventory is expected to have limited recovery, and the domestic high - inventory pressure may be difficult to relieve, especially in Q1 [105][106]. IV. Summary and Outlook for the Future - The macro - environment in 2026 is expected to be favorable for the zinc market. The supply - demand pattern will change, with the supply growth narrowing and the demand showing sector differentiation. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely, and there will be phased and structural opportunities [107][108].