1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both weak before the Spring Festival, and the post - festival trend depends on the game between upstream and downstream**: In the coking coal segment, production is adjusted due to the Spring Festival and safety production constraints, and it is expected to decline seasonally in February and recover quickly after the festival. In the coke segment, poor profits suppress production enthusiasm, and supply is in a contraction state. In the steel mill segment, production will remain at a low level during the Spring Festival, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover after the Lantern Festival, but the actual recovery height depends on the game between terminal demand release intensity and steel mill profit levels. In the next month, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke will first decline and then rise. The supply of coking coal is expected to be loose, while the supply of coke will continue to contract. The demand depends on terminal demand and steel mill profit space. Overall, the fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that coking coal and coke will mainly fluctuate within a range, with coke in the range of 1600 - 1800 yuan/ton and coking coal in the range of 1050 - 1300 yuan/ton [3][33]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Futures market**: In January, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated widely, with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. Coking coal futures first rose due to winter storage expectations, then fell due to high Mongolian coal customs clearance and sufficient domestic supply, and finally entered a shock phase. Coke futures basically followed the trend of coking coal [8]. - **Spot market**: Mongolian coal prices were closely linked to futures, while Shanxi - produced coking coal prices were relatively lagging. In January, the mainstream coal types in Shanxi generally rose by 80 - 150 yuan/ton in the middle of the month and then weakened in the late month [8]. - **Fundamentals**: For coking coal, the supply pressure gradually accumulated, with increased domestic coal mine production and high - level Mongolian coal customs clearance. The downstream winter storage brought phased demand but with limited intensity. For coke, the supply - demand pattern was loose, the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises increased slightly, but profits continued to shrink [8]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Upstream Coking Coal Production Declined Slightly - In January, coking coal production decreased by 3.2% month - on - month and 1.5% year - on - year, mainly affected by the Spring Festival and weak downstream demand. Shanxi's production decreased by 4% month - on - month, while Inner Mongolia's increased by 2.1%. State - owned key coal mines accounted for 72% of the total output, and private small and medium - sized mines had a low start - up rate of 52%. In February, production is expected to decline seasonally and recover quickly after the festival [9][11]. 3.2.2 Coking Coal Import Had a Good Momentum - In 2025, China's coking coal imports were low in the first half and high in the second half, with a total import volume of 118.6256 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.66%. Mongolia and Russia accounted for 78.3% of the total imports. In January, Mongolian coal customs clearance increased significantly year - on - year, and the port inventory was high. After the Spring Festival, customs clearance is expected to remain at a high level [12]. 3.2.3 Coking Coal Inventory Analysis - In January, the coking coal market was in a state of inventory accumulation. The inventory was transferred from upstream to mid - and downstream. By the end of January, the upstream coal mine raw coal inventory increased by 660,000 tons month - on - month, the port inventory decreased by 130,000 tons, the coking plant inventory increased by 1.95 million tons, and the steel mill coking coal inventory increased by 76,000 tons [17]. 3.2.4 Overall Contraction of Coke Supply - In January, coking enterprises' profits were poor, and the start - up rate increased limitedly. The national coking profit was - 50 - 60 yuan/ton, and the independent coking enterprise start - up rate was stable at around 72%. Coke production was at a relatively low level, and the supply continued to contract. Steel mill coke production remained stable, with a daily average output of 465,000 - 470,000 tons [19]. 3.2.5 Coke Import and Export - In 2025, China's coke exports showed a downward trend, with a total export volume of 794,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. Exports were mainly to Indonesia, India, and Japan. In 2026, coke exports are expected to be generally stable. Domestic coke self - sufficiency rate is high, and imports have little impact on the market [21][22]. 3.2.6 Coke Inventory - Before the Spring Festival, coke inventory increased, mainly driven by steel mill replenishment. By the end of January, the total domestic coke inventory was about 9.2 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons month - on - month. The coking plant inventory decreased by 60,000 tons, the port inventory increased by 200,000 tons, and the steel mill inventory increased by 360,000 tons [23]. 3.3 Demand Side: Contracted Before the Festival and Recovered After the Festival - Affected by the Spring Festival and pre - festival stockpiling, coke demand weakened before the festival. In January, overall consumption was stable, slightly better than the same period last year. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills remained in the range of 80% - 85%, and the daily average pig iron output was about 2.28 million tons, a slight decrease of 5,000 tons month - on - month. It is expected that the start - up rate will remain low in early February and gradually recover after the Lantern Festival, but it depends on the game between steel mill profit repair and raw material costs [28]. 3.4 Market Outlook - **Coking coal**: Affected by the Spring Festival and safety production, production will decline seasonally in February and recover quickly after the festival, and the supply will be generally stable [32]. - **Coke**: Coking enterprises' profits are poor, and the supply continues to contract. Steel mill self - produced coke remains stable [32]. - **Steel mills**: During the Spring Festival, production will remain at a low level. After the Lantern Festival, the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover, but the actual recovery height depends on terminal demand and steel mill profit levels [32]. - **Macro - level**: The domestic economy is stable, with weak real estate investment and strong infrastructure and manufacturing investment. Overseas, there are geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions, and the global economy has uncertainties. In the next month, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke will first decline and then rise, and they are expected to fluctuate within a range [33].

2026 年 2 月 9 日 关注节后预期变化 钢价震荡为主 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 13 钢材月报 ⚫ 供给端：1月钢材生产呈现回升态势，但受限于钢厂整 体盈利面偏弱及淡季需求走弱，进一步增产的动力不 足。进入2月，短流程企业因春节临近而逐步减产，后 续供应增长将主要依赖高炉产能释放。然而，考虑到当 前利润空间依然有限、库存压力尚未缓解，预计整体增 产空间较为有限。 ⚫ 需求端：春节临近，钢材消费边际转弱。其中螺纹钢表 观消费量降至176万吨，工地采购以刚需为主，投机需 求几近停滞；板材表现相对坚挺，热卷表观消费量微降 至310万吨。今年贸易商普遍冬储意愿偏低，对节后需 求复苏持谨慎态度，投机囤 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20260206 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：海外风险偏好降幅，A 股缩量普跌 海外方面，美国开年就业走弱线索增多：①最新初请失业金人数升至 23.1 万人，预期 21.2 万人，受极端天气扰动短期跳升；②12 月 JOLTS 职位空缺降至 654.2 万个，预期 720 万个，创 2020 年 9 月以来新低，且不同规模企业普遍回落，部分反映企业在 AI 提效背景下 对新增岗位需求趋谨慎。欧洲央行 2 月议息会议如期按兵不动，其认为通胀与增长判断基本 稳定、中期通胀仍回归 2%、经济路径与去年 12 月预测一致。行长拉加德认为形势"总体平 衡"，在承认外部不确定性的同时，重申政策立场稳健，短期暂无调整必要。在就业数据走 弱与海外 AI 叙事担忧共振下，市场风险偏好持续收缩：美股普遍下跌超 1%，VIX 抬升；贵 金属再度调整，黄金跌近 4%、白银回撤约 20%；美元指数上探 98 关口，资金转向避险的美 债，10Y 利率回落至 4.17%。原定于本周五晚公布的非农数据推迟至下周三发布，重要 ...

商品日报 20260205 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 主要品种观点 宏观：美国 1 月 ADP 就业偏弱，A 股延续缩量反弹 海外方面，美国年初就业有所降温，1 月 ADP 仅增 2.2 万人，低于预期 4.5 万人，就业 增量高度集中于教育和医疗，制造业与专业服务收缩，结构性疲弱清晰。1 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 升至 53.8，但就业几乎停滞、价格回升，显示需求修复未能转化为用工扩张，"高价格、 弱就业"的分化格局延续。全球资源品博弈加剧，美、欧、日以"供应链韧性"为名加速制 度化结盟，旨在弱化中国在关键工业原料上的主导权。海外市场风险偏好较弱，美股科技又 因 AI 泡沫担忧下挫，美元指数抬升至 97.7，金价在 5000 美元上方震荡，铜价收跌 3%，油 价收涨，关注周五非农就业数据。 国内方面，A 股周三延续反弹，上证指数重回 4100 点，红利风格领涨，煤炭、光伏、 航空等板块领涨，两市成交额小回落至 2.5 万亿元、逾 3200 只收涨，赚钱效应边际转弱， 宽基指数 ETF 转为净流出，两融余额继续边际回 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20260204 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：中国拟将铜精矿纳入国家储备，金属价格普遍反弹 海外方面，特朗普签署临时支出协议，结束部分停摆，恢复多部门拨款，并将国土安全 部资金延至 2 月 13 日，政府服务暂未受实质冲击。美联储方面，巴尔金表示降息有助于稳 住就业，但通胀目标尚差"最后一步"；理事米兰认为今年累计降息幅度或略高于 100bp， 并强调长期应推动美联储资产负债表回归更小规模。美元指数震荡回落至 97.4，10Y 美债收 益率升至 4.27%，纳指周二大幅收跌、因市场担忧 AI 加剧软件行业竞争；金价在基本面支 撑与低吸资金推动下反弹至 5000 关口；铜价反弹，受益于中国增储铜的消息伦铜站上 13000 美元；中东紧张升级推升油价约 2%，美伊缓和谈判前景再添不确定性。本周继续关注 ADP 及非农就业数据。 国内方面，A 股周二反弹，上证指数涨至 4067 点，中证 1000、科创 100、北证 50 等成 长小票风格涨幅领先，光伏、工程机械、发电设备等板块领涨，两市成交额小 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20260203 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：美国 1 月制造业 PMI 超预期，A 股缩量调整加剧 海外方面，美国 1 月 ISM 制造业指数大幅反弹至 52.6，创 2022 年 2 月以来新高，显著 高于预期 48.5，核心拉动来自新订单与产出同步改善，就业分项虽创一年高点，但仍处收缩 区间，显示需求修复快于用工扩张，物价指数回升则指向成本端再度抬头。与此同时，受联 邦政府部分停摆影响，美国劳工统计局确认 1 月非农报告延期发布，短期内削弱就业"硬数 据"的可得性。在经历连续两个交易日的快速下跌后，贵金属出现企稳修复迹象，黄金反弹 至约 4800 美元、白银回升至 83 美元，美元指数回升至 97.5 附近，美股同步反弹，铜、油 均收跌。本周继续美国政府关门进展、ADP 就业。 国内方面，中国 1 月 RatingDog 制造业 PMI 升至 50.3 并重返扩张区间，新订单与用工 同步改善，但企业信心走弱、成本压力抬升，推动销售价格 14 个月来首次上涨，显示需求 修复初现而定价能力 ...

核心观点 ⚫ 海外方面，美国12月PPI环比大幅超预期升至0.5%，显示关 税传导推升通胀黏性；财政端方面，1.2万亿美元政府支出法 案虽在参议院通过，但短期政治不确定性仍在加剧。美联储 新主席Warsh落地，其"利率端略偏鸽、资产负债表端偏鹰、 沟通更收敛"的政策取向强化了市场对流动性边际收紧的预 期，美元指数走强，1月高度拥挤的黄金、白银出现史诗级 下跌，美债10Y利率上行至4.26%，美股收跌，市场风险偏好 走弱。本周关注政府关门进展、1月ISM PMI、ADP及非农 就业数据。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 宏观周报 美联储新主席落地，海外市场波动加剧 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After a small amount of maintenance is implemented, the operating capacity of alumina decreases, and the market supply pressure eases slightly. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, some enterprises may carry out maintenance, which will help alumina stabilize and rebound. However, the import window is still open, the ore price continues to decline, and the cost support weakens. The upside of the alumina rebound is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance [2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - Alumina futures (active): The price rose from 2,672 yuan/ton on January 21, 2026, to 2,768 yuan/ton on January 30, 2026, an increase of 96 yuan/ton [3]. - Domestic alumina spot: The price dropped from 2,657 yuan/ton to 2,646 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton [3]. - Spot premium: It decreased from 120 yuan/ton to 66 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan/ton [3]. - Australian alumina FOB: The price rose from 304 US dollars/ton to 306 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton [3]. - Import profit and loss: It decreased from -25.41 yuan/ton to -44.41 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton [3]. - Exchange inventory: The warehouse inventory increased from 119,128 tons to 171,104 tons, an increase of 51,976 tons; the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [3]. - Bauxite: The prices of bauxite in Shanxi, Henan, Guangxi, Guizhou, and Guinea all decreased to varying degrees [3]. Market Review - Alumina futures: The main contract rose 1.62% last week, closing at 2,768 yuan/ton [4]. - Alumina spot: The national weighted average price on Friday was 2,646 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton from the previous week [4]. - Bauxite: In the domestic market, the production of bauxite in the northern region has recovered, the supply is sufficient, and the price is under pressure to decline; the production in the southern region has not changed significantly. In the overseas market, the trading is light, and a large mining enterprise in Guinea has lowered the long - term contract price for the first quarter [4]. - Supply: The total built - in production capacity of metallurgical alumina in the country is 110.32 million tons/year, and the total operating capacity is 85.29 million tons/year, a decrease of 2 million tons from the previous week. The weekly operating rate of domestic alumina plants decreased by 1.66 percentage points to 77.31% [4]. - Consumption: The electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia continued to release new production capacity, the operating capacity increased compared with the previous week, and the theoretical demand for alumina increased slightly [4]. - Inventory: The alumina futures warrant inventory on Friday was 171,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons during the week; the factory warehouse inventory was 0 tons, unchanged [4]. Market Outlook - Ore end: The supply of domestic and imported ores has remained sufficient recently. A large mine in Guinea has lowered its long - term contract price for the first quarter, and there is downward pressure on ore prices in the future [2][6]. - Supply end: Some alumina plants have started maintenance, and enterprises in many places have reduced their operating capacities to varying degrees, but the overall reduction is limited, and the supply is still relatively loose [2][6]. - Consumption end: The consumption is mainly based on the implementation of long - term contracts as needed, with little change [2][6]. - Inventory: The alumina warrant inventory is 171,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons during the week [2][6]. Industry News - On January 27, 2026, workers at a Chinese - owned mining company in the Boké region of Guinea's bauxite mining area launched an indefinite strike. However, the port inventory of bauxite in this mining area is sufficient, and the current strike has little impact on the overall shipment in Guinea [7]. - The European aluminum industry is facing difficulties. Due to the successive closures of smelters, China's export controls on key minerals, and the implementation of the EU's carbon border adjustment tax, the region is facing a serious aluminum supply problem [7].

Report Title - Bean Meal Weekly Report [1] Report Date - February 2, 2026 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT March soybean contract fell 3.25 to close at 1064.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.30%; the May bean meal contract rose 16 to close at 2767 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.58%; the South China bean meal spot price rose 20 to close at 3120 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.65%; the May rapeseed meal contract rose 52 to close at 2287 yuan per ton, an increase of 2.33%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 30 to close at 2460 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.23% [4][7] - The domestic Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) bean meal main contract fluctuated within the week, with its upside limited under the pattern of ample supply. Bullish sentiment on the potential drought in the Argentine production area increased, combined with strong bullish sentiment in the domestic commodity market in the first half of the week and pre - Chinese New Year stocking demand, leading to active downstream pick - ups and an increase in feed enterprises' bean meal inventories, which pushed up the futures price. However, as market sentiment cooled, with the progress of the Brazilian harvest, increased supply, slower US soybean export sales, and news of a possible restart of imported soybean auctions, the DCE bean meal contract fell sharply and ended slightly higher. The rapeseed meal rebounded more strongly than bean meal due to the unclear China - Canada trade relationship [4][7] - The Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing steadily, and the increase in precipitation in the Argentine production area has alleviated drought concerns. The expectation of a bumper harvest in South America has not been disproven. US soybean export sales have slowed down, and China's soybean procurement plans for February - March shipments are basically completed, with subsequent purchases shifting to the South American market, putting pressure on the external market. With the Chinese New Year approaching in two weeks, the oil mill's crushing and operation rate will gradually decline, and the pre - holiday stocking demand is coming to an end. Feed enterprises' bean meal inventories continue to increase. Overall, the DCE bean meal is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data | Contract | January 30 | January 23 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1064.25 | 1067.50 | -3.25 | -0.30% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 451.00 | 448.00 | 3.00 | 0.67% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 483.00 | 477.00 | 6.00 | 1.26% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | 81.26 | 71.46 | 9.81 | | Yuan per ton | | DCE Bean Meal | 2767.00 | 2751.00 | 16.00 | 0.58% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2287.00 | 2235.00 | 52.00 | 2.33% | Yuan per ton | | Bean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 480.00 | 516.00 | -36.00 | | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3120.00 | 3100.00 | 20.00 | 0.65% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 3120.00 | 3100.00 | 20.00 | 0.65% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | 353.00 | 349.00 | 4.00 | | Yuan per ton | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - US soybean export sales: As of the week ending January 22, 2026, the net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 season was 81.9 tons, compared with 244.6 tons the previous week. The cumulative sales volume of current - year US soybeans was 3385.4 tons, with a sales progress of 79%, compared with 83.6% in the same period last year. China's net purchase of US soybeans that week was 23.3 tons, with a cumulative purchase volume of 965.4 tons and an unshipped volume of 614 tons [8] - US soybean crushing profit: As of the week ending January 23, 2026, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.54 US dollars per bushel, compared with 2.40 US dollars per bushel the previous week [8] - Brazilian soybean situation: As of January 24, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 99.1%, compared with 98.6% the previous week and 99.2% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 99%. The Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 6.6%, compared with 2.3% the previous week and 3.2% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 7%. Brazil's soybean exports in January are expected to be 323 tons, lower than the previous estimate of 379 tons [9] - Argentine soybean situation: As of the week ending January 28, 2026, the Argentine soybean sowing was basically completed. The proportion of normal and excellent crops was 84%, compared with 87% the previous week and 75% in the same period last year. Forecasts show that the cumulative precipitation in the Argentine production area will be lower than normal in the next 15 days, but subsequent precipitation is expected to increase [9] - Inventory and consumption data in China: As of the week ending January 23, 2026, the main oil mills' soybean inventory was 658.99 tons, a decrease of 28.34 tons from the previous week and an increase of 207.01 tons compared with the same period last year; the bean meal inventory was 89.86 tons, a decrease of 4.86 tons from the previous week and an increase of 45.93 tons compared with the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 406.16 tons, a decrease of 92.32 tons from the previous week and an increase of 146.63 tons compared with the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 721.5 tons, a decrease of 50.6 tons from the previous week and an increase of 112.26 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week ending January 30, the daily average trading volume of national bean meal was 30.986 tons, including 5.77 tons of spot trading and 25.216 tons of forward trading, compared with a daily average total trading volume of 18.672 tons the previous week; the daily average pick - up volume of bean meal was 19.42 tons, compared with 18.816 tons the previous week. The main oil mills' crushing volume was 229.61 tons, compared with 210.21 tons the previous week; the feed enterprises' bean meal inventory days were 11.33 days, compared with 10.21 days the previous week [10] 3.3 Industry News - Canada's agricultural outlook: The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture expects the soybean planting area in the 2026/2027 season to increase by 2.6% to 2.401 million hectares, and the output to increase from 6.793 million tons in the 2025/2026 season to 7.6 million tons. The rapeseed planting area in the 2026/2027 season is expected to increase by 1.9% to 8.915 million hectares, but due to the return of yield to the average level, the output will decrease from a record 21.804 million tons in the 2025/2026 season to 19.2 million tons [12] - Brazilian soybean production and sales: The AgRural institution expects the Brazilian soybean output in the 2025/2026 season to reach 181 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 180.4 million tons. As of Thursday, Brazilian farmers had completed 4.9% of the 2025/2026 soybean harvest, higher than 2% the previous week and 3.9% in the same period last year. Brazilian farmers are still hesitant to sell soybeans, and the current sales speed is slow. So far, farmers have only pre - sold 30.3% of the new soybeans, compared with 39% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 41.1% [13][16] - Other data: Brazil's soybean exports in the first four weeks of January were 1,521,682.57 tons, with a daily average export volume of 95,105.16 tons, a 96% increase compared with the daily average export volume in January last year. According to the Brazilian port export plan, the soybean exports in January will reach 348 tons, much higher than 110.3 tons in the same period last year, and it is expected to be 627.7 tons in February 2026. The total soybean exports from January to February 2026 will reach 989 tons, higher than 749.7 tons in the same period in 2025 [13] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the US soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the managed fund's net position in the CBOT, the spot price of bean meal in different regions, the spread between the May and September bean meal contracts, the precipitation and temperature in the Brazilian and Argentine soybean production areas, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress, the Argentine soybean sowing progress, the cumulative sales volume and weekly net sales volume of US soybeans, the US oil mill's crushing profit, the weekly average trading volume and pick - up volume of bean meal, the port and oil mill's soybean inventory, the oil mill's weekly crushing volume, unexecuted contracts, bean meal inventory, and the feed enterprises' bean meal inventory days [17][18][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 55 to close at 4,229 ringgit/ton, an increase of 1.32%; the palm oil 05 contract rose 330 to close at 9,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.70%. The overall oil and fat sector strengthened with fluctuations. Rapeseed oil led the rise in the oil and fat sector this week. Palm oil fluctuated upward due to factors such as geopolitical issues in Iran, the US cold wave affecting production and supply, expectations of US biodiesel policies, pre - Spring Festival stocking in China, and fundamental support [4][6]. - The market has a consistent expectation of a decrease in production and an increase in demand for Malaysian palm oil in January. It is waiting for the guidance of the MPOB report data. Additionally, attention should be paid to the China - Canada trade relationship and the progress of US biodiesel policies. It is expected that palm oil will experience high - level oscillatory adjustments in the short term [4][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Contracts**: The CBOT soybean oil main contract fell 0.39 to close at 53.54 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.72%; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 55 to close at 4,229 ringgit/ton, an increase of 1.32%; the DCE palm oil contract rose 330 to close at 9,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.70%; the DCE soybean oil contract rose 188 to close at 8,282 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.32%; the CZCE rapeseed oil contract rose 389 to close at 9,380 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.33%. The soybean - palm oil futures spread decreased by 142 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed - palm oil futures spread increased by 59 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong rose 330 to 9,260 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.70%; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao rose 150 to 8,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.78%; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu rose 390 to 10,140 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.00% [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Movements**: Similar to the data in the market data section, various oil futures contracts showed different price changes last week, with the overall oil and fat sector strengthening with fluctuations [6]. - **Influencing Factors**: The US pressured Canada and threatened to impose a 100% tariff. The Canadian Prime Minister stated that he was not seeking a trade agreement with China. Although the market reported that China had purchased several ships of Canadian rapeseed, the future China - Canada trade relationship remains uncertain. Geopolitical issues in Iran and the US cold wave affected production and supply, causing a significant increase in oil prices, which boosted the oil and fat sector. Expectations of US biodiesel policies, pre - Spring Festival stocking in China, and fundamental support further strengthened the upward trend of palm oil [6]. - **Production and Export Data**: From January 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased, while export data from different institutions showed different trends. The SPPOMA data indicated that the yield per unit decreased by 15.28% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.11% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 14.81% month - on - month. The MPOA data showed that the estimated production from January 1 - 20 decreased by 14.43%. The ITS data showed a 9.97% increase in exports, the AmSpec data showed a 7.97% increase, and the SGS data showed a 9.41% decrease [7][8]. - **Trade News**: Trump pressured the China - Canada trade relationship. After the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to Beijing, Chinese importers signed contracts to purchase up to 10 ships of Canadian rapeseed, with a total of about 650,000 tons, equivalent to more than 10% of China's rapeseed imports in 2024 and about 26% of the 2025 import volume [8]. - **Inventory and Transaction Data**: As of the week of January 23, 2026, the total inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 1.9528 million tons, a decrease of 32,600 tons from the previous week and an increase of 78,000 tons from the same period last year. As of the week of January 30, the daily average trading volume of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 50,660 tons, and that of palm oil was 820 tons [9]. - **Macro and Fundamental Analysis**: Trump nominated Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, increasing market volatility and causing the US dollar index to rise. The US production is gradually recovering, and attention should be paid to the changes in the US - Iran situation and the decline in oil prices. The market has a consistent expectation of a decrease in production and an increase in demand for Malaysian palm oil in January, waiting for the MPOB report data [9]. 3.3 Industry News - India cancelled 35,000 - 40,000 tons of soybean oil orders from Brazil and Argentina, originally scheduled for February and April - July delivery. The total cancelled soybean oil orders are expected to exceed 50,000 tons due to the rupee exchange rate hitting a record low, which widened the price difference between domestic and imported soybean oil [10]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trends of Malaysian palm oil and US soybean oil main contracts, the futures price index trends of the three major oils, the spot price trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and the monthly production, inventory, and export data of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, as well as the commercial inventory data of domestic oils [11][13][15].