Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On January 16, 2026, coking coal options were officially launched on the DCE, marking the further improvement of the black - series risk management system [2][5] - For the time - value earning strategy, when the price approaches the upper range (e.g., around 1350 - 1400 yuan/ton) and IV is high, sell out - of - the - money call options and buy deep - out - of - the - money call options; when the price drops to the lower range (e.g., around 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton) and IV is relatively high, sell out - of - the - money put options and buy deep - out - of - the - money put options [2][19] - For the relatively aggressive option - buying strategy, when the price rises to the upper range and IV is relatively low, consider buying out - of - the - money put options; when the price drops to the lower range and IV is relatively low, consider buying out - of - the - money call options [2][19] Summary by Directory I. Background and Significance of Coking Coal Options Launch - Coking coal is a key raw material in the coal - coke - steel industry chain. In 2024, China's coking coal production accounted for 53% of the global total and consumption accounted for 63%. However, its price has fluctuated sharply, and the coking coal futures listed in 2013 have limitations, so there is an urgent need for coking coal options [5] - On January 16, 2026, coking coal options were launched on the DCE, which, as a supplementary tool to futures, improves the black - series risk management system [2][5] II. Coking Coal Option Contract Design and Trading Rules 1. Coking Coal Option Contracts - The underlying asset is the coking coal futures contract, with contract types including call and put options. The trading unit is 1 lot (60 tons) of coking coal futures contract, the quotation unit is yuan (RMB)/ton, and the minimum price change is 0.1 yuan/ton. The daily price limit is the same as that of the underlying futures contract. The contract months are from January to December [6] - The last trading day is the 12th trading day before the delivery month of the underlying futures contract, which can be adjusted according to national legal holidays. The expiration date is the same as the last trading day. The exercise price covers a certain price range, and the exercise price intervals vary for different contract periods. The exercise style is American [8] - The trading codes for call and put options are JM - contract month - C - exercise price and JM - contract month - P - exercise price respectively, and the listing exchange is the Dalian Commodity Exchange [8] 2. Key Trading Rules - The core design of coking coal option contracts focuses on connecting with futures and flexible risk control. The exercise price has a "near - dense, far - sparse" setting. The American exercise style allows investors to exercise at any time before expiration [9] - Un - exercised in - the - money options at expiration will be automatically exercised. The settlement price is determined differently on non - last trading days and the last trading day. The seller's margin is the higher of two calculation standards. The position limit is 8000 lots, calculated separately from futures positions [9][10] - The trading and exercise commission is 0.5 yuan/lot, halved for hedging transactions. A market - making mechanism is introduced to enhance market liquidity [10] III. Core Functions and Market Value of Coking Coal Options 1. Risk Management Function: From Passive Hedging to Active Strategy Management - Coking coal options can help industrial customers transform from passive risk hedging to active strategy management. Their non - linear return characteristics can cover tail risks, and option buyers only need to pay the premium, reducing cash - flow volatility and improving capital efficiency [11] - Options and futures can be flexibly combined to form diverse strategies, enabling enterprises to customize strategies according to market conditions [11] 2. Market Function: Improving Liquidity and Pricing Efficiency - The diversified design of coking coal options improves market liquidity and pricing efficiency. The American exercise mechanism and various trading orders reduce trading friction, and the implied volatility reflects market expectations more accurately, promoting a more efficient pricing system in the coal - coke - steel industry chain [12] IV. Application and Practical Cases in the Option Industry 1. Enterprises' Pain Points - Coking coal industry chain enterprises face many operating pain points, such as profit erosion due to price fluctuations for coking enterprises, double - price fluctuations for washing enterprises, and high external procurement costs and lagging spot pricing for mixed - ownership enterprises. Traditional futures hedging has limitations [13][14] 2. Typical Application Scenarios - Inventory hedging: Coking enterprises can buy put options to lock in the minimum realization price of inventory while retaining upside potential [15] - Virtual inventory construction: When the price is low, enterprises can sell out - of - the - money put options to optimize procurement and reduce costs [15] - Hedging of option - embedded trade: Enterprises can use on - exchange options to hedge the price - fluctuation risks in option - embedded trade contracts [15] - Hedging optimization: Washing enterprises can adopt a composite hedging model of "mainly futures, supplemented by options" to improve risk - control efficiency [16] V. Strategy Reference in the Initial Stage of Coking Coal Options Listing 1. Coking Coal Market Analysis - The current coking coal market has stable supply and demand but divided expectations. The winter - storage demand before the Spring Festival supports prices, but high Mongolian coal customs clearance, stable domestic coal - mine operation, and expected increase in Australian coal imports suppress price increases. The main - contract price fluctuates between 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton [17] 2. Coking Coal Volatility Analysis - The long - term average of coking coal's historical volatility is about 30.07%, and it can rise above 50% during extreme events. In the initial stage of coking coal options listing, the implied volatility may be higher than the historical volatility, and it is expected to form a more stable relationship with the historical volatility later [18] 3. Strategies on the Listing Day and in the Initial Stage of Coking Coal Options - Adopt a range - bound strategy. For the time - value earning strategy, consider different option - trading combinations based on price ranges and IV levels. For the relatively aggressive option - buying strategy, also consider different option - buying actions according to price ranges and IV levels [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On January 16, 2026, coking coal options were officially listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, marking the further improvement of the black - series risk management system [2][5]. - There are two strategies: the time - value - earning strategy and the relatively aggressive option - buying strategy. For the time - value - earning strategy, when the price approaches the upper limit of the range (e.g., around 1350 - 1400 yuan/ton) and the implied volatility (IV) is high, sell out - of - the - money call options and buy deep - out - of - the - money call options; when the price falls to the lower limit of the range (e.g., around 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton) and the IV is relatively high, sell out - of - the - money put options and buy deep - out - of - the - money put options. For the aggressive option - buying strategy, when the price rises to the upper limit of the range and the IV is relatively low, consider buying out - of - the - money put options; when the price falls to the lower limit of the range and the IV is relatively low, consider buying out - of - the - money call options [2][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Background and Significance of Coking Coal Options Launch - Coking coal is a core raw material in the coal - coking - steel industry chain. In 2024, China's main coking coal production accounted for 53% of the global total, and consumption accounted for 63%. However, coking coal prices have fluctuated sharply in recent years, and traditional futures have limitations in risk management, leading to an urgent need for more refined and flexible risk management tools [5]. - On January 16, 2026, coking coal options were listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, which, as a supplementary tool to futures, improves the black - series risk management system [2][5]. 3.2 Coking Coal Option Contract Design and Trading Rules 3.2.1 Coking Coal Option Contracts - The underlying asset is the coking coal futures contract, with contract types including call options and put options. The trading unit is 1 lot (60 tons) of coking coal futures contracts, the quotation unit is yuan (RMB)/ton, and the minimum price change is 0.1 yuan/ton. The daily price limit is the same as that of the underlying futures contract. The contract months are from January to December [6]. - The last trading day is the 12th trading day of the month before the delivery month of the underlying futures contract, and the expiration date is the same as the last trading day. The exercise price covers a range corresponding to 1.5 times the daily price limit of the settlement price of the underlying futures contract on the previous trading day, with different intervals for different price ranges and different contract months. The exercise style is American [8]. 3.2.2 Key Trading Rules - The core contract design focuses on "connecting with futures and flexible risk control". The minimum price change is 0.1 yuan/ton, and the daily price limit is the same as that of futures. The exercise price has a "near - dense and far - sparse" interval setting. The American exercise style allows investors to exercise at any trading day before the expiration date [9]. - Un - exercised in - the - money options at the expiration date will be automatically exercised. The settlement price is determined by the implied volatility theory price on non - last trading days and calculated by a formula on the last trading day. The seller's margin is the higher of two calculation standards. The position limit is 8000 lots, and the trading and exercise fee is 0.5 yuan/lot, with a 50% discount for hedging transactions. A market - making mechanism is introduced to improve market liquidity [9][10]. 3.3 Core Functions and Market Value of Coking Coal Options 3.3.1 Risk Management Function: From Passive Hedging to Active Strategy Management - Coking coal options can help industrial customers transform from "passive risk hedging" to "active strategy management". Their non - linear return characteristics can cover tail risks that futures cannot handle, and option buyers only need to pay the premium without the pressure of additional margin, improving capital efficiency [11]. - Options and futures can be combined to form diversified strategies, allowing enterprises to customize strategies according to different market conditions [11]. 3.3.2 Market Function: Improving Liquidity and Pricing Efficiency - The American exercise mechanism and various trading instructions of coking coal options reduce trading friction and attract more participants, enhancing market activity. The implied volatility (IV) reflects market expectations of future fluctuations, making prices more in line with actual supply - demand and sentiment changes. Options are more sensitive to short - term fluctuations, promoting a more efficient and transparent pricing system in the coal - coking - steel industry chain [12]. 3.4 Application and Practical Cases in the Option Industry 3.4.1 Enterprises' Pain Points - Coking enterprises, coal - washing enterprises, and mixed - ownership enterprises in the coking coal industry chain face problems such as profit erosion due to price fluctuations, weak anti - risk ability, and insufficient risk mitigation ability. Traditional futures hedging has limitations in dealing with extreme market risks and complex scenarios [13][14]. 3.4.2 Typical Application Scenarios - Inventory hedging: Coking enterprises can buy put options to lock in the minimum liquidation price of inventory while retaining the potential for inventory appreciation [15]. - Virtual inventory construction: When the coking coal price is low, enterprises can sell out - of - the - money put options to optimize procurement and form a low - cost virtual inventory [15]. - Hedging of option - embedded trades: Enterprises can use on - exchange options to hedge the price - fluctuation risks in option - embedded trade contracts [15]. - Optimization of hedging: Coal - washing enterprises can adopt a composite hedging model of "mainly futures, supplemented by options" to improve risk - control efficiency [16]. 3.5 Initial Strategy Reference for Coking Coal Options Listing 3.5.1 Coking Coal Market Analysis - The current coking coal market has stable supply and demand but with divergent expectations. Before the Spring Festival, winter - storage demand supports prices, but high Mongolian coal customs clearance, stable domestic coal - mine operation, and expected increase in Australian coal imports suppress price increases. The main - contract price fluctuates between 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton [17]. 3.5.2 Coking Coal Volatility Analysis - The historical volatility (HV) of coking coal has a long - term average of about 30.07%, and short - term HV fluctuates around this level. In extreme events, HV can rise above 50%. At the initial stage of coking coal options listing, the implied volatility (IV) may be higher than the historical volatility, and it is expected to form a more stable relationship with HV as the market develops [18]. 3.5.3 Strategies for the Listing Day and Initial Stage of Coking Coal Options - There are two strategies: the time - value - earning strategy and the relatively aggressive option - buying strategy, which are based on the price range and implied volatility level of coking coal [2][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US economy remains in a stage of decent growth, controllable inflation, and lingering political risks. Retail sales in November increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and inflation shows an "external hot, internal stable" pattern. Metal prices are rising rapidly, while the US stock market turns defensive and the US dollar index slightly declines. Oil prices continue to rebound [2]. - Domestically, exports and imports in December 2025 both exceeded expectations, showing a recovery in foreign demand and domestic imports. The property - related tax - refund policy is extended, and regulations are strengthened in the new energy vehicle industry. The A - share market receives regulatory cooling signals after reaching a new high, and the short - term upward slope may be adjusted [3]. - Precious metals continue to be strong due to factors such as the US inflation data boosting expectations of Fed rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and the potential shortage of physical supply. The silver price is expected to remain strong in the short term [4][5]. - The copper price shows a strong and volatile trend. Strong economic fundamentals in China and the US provide demand support, and the supply of concentrates is growing slowly. It is expected to maintain a high - level and strong oscillation in the short term [6][7]. - The aluminum price fluctuates at a high level. Although the macro - environment is stable, high prices suppress downstream consumption, and the inventory is increasing. It is expected to continue the high - level oscillation [8][9]. - The zinc price fluctuates strongly. The high copper - zinc and zinc - aluminum price ratios support the zinc price, but the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend with increased volatility [10]. - The lead price's rebound space is limited. Although the LME lead inventory is decreasing, the consumption pressure increases due to the anti - dumping tariff on lead - acid batteries, and the social inventory is rising. It is expected to fluctuate widely [11]. - The tin price hits a new high, but there is a risk of adjustment at the high level. Although the current supply disruption is limited, the supply of tin ore remains tight. However, the risk accumulates as the price rises continuously, and there may be a callback pressure [12][13]. - The steel price fluctuates. The fundamental driving force is limited, and it is expected to oscillate mainly. The impact of inventory accumulation on the steel price should be noted [14]. - The iron ore price is under pressure to oscillate. The supply is strong while the demand is weak, with high port inventories and general replenishment by steel mills [15]. - The coking coal and coke prices oscillate. The cost of coking enterprises is rising, the supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to continue the oscillating pattern [16][17]. - The soybean and rapeseed meal prices oscillate. China's soybean procurement is approaching the target, and the Brazilian harvest will increase supply. The short - term trend depends on the pre - holiday stocking demand [18]. - The palm oil price oscillates. Indonesia cancels the B50 policy, which eases the supply - tightness expectation, but the improving export demand provides support [19][20]. 3. Summary of Each Section Macro - Overseas: The US is in a stage of decent growth, controllable inflation, and lingering political risks. In November, retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, driven by automobile and holiday - related consumption. PPI rose to 3% year - on - year, mainly due to energy prices, while core PPI was flat month - on - month. Metal prices rose rapidly, the US stock market turned defensive, the US dollar index declined slightly, and oil prices rebounded [2]. - Domestic: In December 2025, exports increased by 6.6% and imports by 5.7% year - on - year, both exceeding expectations. The property - related tax - refund policy is extended to 2027, and regulations are strengthened in the new energy vehicle industry. The A - share market received regulatory cooling signals after reaching a new high, and the short - term upward slope may be adjusted [3]. Precious Metals - The price of precious metals continued to be strong on Wednesday, with gold and silver hitting new highs for three consecutive days. The US CPI data in December boosted expectations of Fed rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions and potential supply shortages pushed up the prices. The silver price is expected to remain strong in the short term due to factors such as forced short - covering [4][5]. Copper - On Wednesday, the Shanghai copper futures fluctuated at a high level, and the LME copper price stabilized above $13,000. The spot market trading improved, and downstream enterprises replenished stocks on a small scale. The US economic activity is expanding moderately, and the strong economic fundamentals in China and the US provide demand support. The supply of concentrates is growing slowly. It is expected to maintain a high - level and strong oscillation in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - On Wednesday, the Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 24,665 yuan/ton, down 0.32%, and the LME aluminum price closed at $3,189.5/ton, down 0.2%. The spot price increased, and the inventory rose. The macro - environment is stable, but high prices suppress downstream consumption. It is expected to continue the high - level oscillation [8][9]. Zinc - On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated within a narrow range during the day and strongly at night, and the LME zinc price rose. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, and the spot premium continues to decline. The high copper - zinc and zinc - aluminum price ratios support the zinc price, but the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend with increased volatility [10]. Lead - On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead futures fluctuated within a narrow range during the day and rose at night, and the LME lead price rose. The consumption pressure increases due to the anti - dumping tariff on lead - acid batteries, and the social inventory is rising. Although the LME lead inventory is decreasing, the lead price's rebound space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate widely [11]. Tin - On Wednesday, the Shanghai tin futures hit the daily limit for the second time this week and continued to be strong at night, breaking through 440,000 yuan/ton. The LME tin price rose by 9.88%. Although the current supply disruption is limited, the supply of tin ore remains tight. However, the risk accumulates as the price rises continuously, and there may be a callback pressure [12][13]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Wednesday, the steel futures fluctuated. The spot market trading volume was 88,000 tons. The cost of electric arc furnace steel mills increased slightly, and the profit was in a loss state. The fundamental driving force is limited, and it is expected to oscillate mainly. The impact of inventory accumulation on the steel price should be noted [14]. Iron Ore - On Wednesday, the iron ore futures fluctuated and slightly adjusted. The spot market trading volume was 1.23 million tons. The cost of steel mills decreased slightly, and the loss was gradually reduced. The supply is strong while the demand is weak, with high port inventories and general replenishment by steel mills. It is expected to be under pressure to oscillate [15]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - On Wednesday, the coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The price of coking coal increased, and the price of coke decreased. The production capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants increased, and the inventory of refined coal rose. The cost of coking enterprises is rising, the supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to continue the oscillating pattern [16][17]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the soybean meal 05 contract fell 0.9%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract fell 1.46%. A US exporter reported selling 334,000 tons of soybeans to China. The Brazilian harvest is underway, and the supply will increase. The short - term trend depends on the pre - holiday stocking demand [18]. Palm Oil - On Wednesday, the palm oil 05 contract fell 0.55%. Indonesia cancels the B50 policy and will maintain the B40 policy, which eases the supply - tightness expectation. However, the improving export demand provides support. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [19][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the report. Core View of the Report - Overseas, the US inflation data in December continued to decline moderately, with the CPI同比 at 2.7% and the core CPI同比 at 2.6%. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, but the Fed may maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Trump's interference in the Fed has increased market uncertainty. Domestically, the A - share market adjusted after a continuous rise, showing a shift from a general rise to differentiation [2][3]. - Precious metals: The US inflation data strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, and silver prices reached a new high. The physical delivery of COMEX silver was active, and the inventory decreased rapidly. Although the exchange strengthened supervision, silver prices are expected to remain relatively strong [4][5]. - Copper: The moderate decline in US inflation led to speculation about a possible interest rate cut in April. Trump's interference in the Fed increased market risk aversion, and the strike at a copper mine in Chile affected production. Copper prices are expected to remain strongly volatile at a high level [6][7]. - Aluminum: US inflation pressure was stable, but core indicators were slightly weak. High aluminum prices suppressed downstream demand, and social inventory was expected to continue to accumulate. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [8][9]. - Alumina: Supply was loose, and inventory was high, so alumina prices were under pressure and are expected to remain weak [10]. - Cast aluminum: Driven by cost, cast aluminum prices are expected to remain strong, although downstream acceptance of high prices is limited [11]. - Zinc: The US core CPI cooled unexpectedly, and zinc prices were expected to fluctuate strongly, but the spot market was weak [12][13]. - Lead: Some refineries resumed production, and lead prices were expected to fluctuate as supply improved and consumption was under pressure [14]. - Tin: Supply - side disturbances and demand expectations supported tin prices, but there was a risk of adjustment due to crowded capital [15]. - Steel products: The demand for construction steel was in the off - season, and the supply - demand balance was weak. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate [16]. - Iron ore: Supply was strong and demand was weak, and iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate [18]. - Coking coal and coke: Steel enterprises did not respond to the price increase request of coke enterprises. The off - season demand led to limited fundamental support, and prices are expected to fluctuate [19]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal: The report was negative, and Brazilian soybean production was certain to be high. The auction of imported soybeans was fully subscribed, and prices are expected to fluctuate [20][21]. - Palm oil: The export demand for Malaysian palm oil improved, but the implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy was uncertain. Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen [23][24]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: In December, the US CPI同比 was 2.7%, and the core CPI同比 was 2.6%. The market expected the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, but the Fed may maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Trump's interference in the Fed increased market uncertainty. Gold and silver reached new highs, the US dollar rose, and industrial metals' upward momentum slowed [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market adjusted after a 17 - day consecutive rise. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4138 points, and the trading volume reached 3.7 trillion yuan. More than 3700 stocks fell. The margin trading balance reached a new high, and the market shifted from a general rise to differentiation [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices fluctuated, and silver prices reached a new high. The active physical delivery of COMEX silver and the rapid decline in inventory were important factors driving silver prices. The US inflation data strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, and precious metal prices were supported [4][5]. Copper - Macro: The moderate decline in US inflation led to a 40%+ probability of an interest rate cut in April, but the Fed may maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Trump's interference in the Fed increased market risk aversion, and copper prices' center of gravity moved up [6]. - Industry: The labor negotiation at a copper mine in Chile was stagnant, and the strike affected production. The supply - demand situation and market sentiment jointly affected copper prices, which are expected to remain strongly volatile at a high level [6][7]. Aluminum - Macro: The World Bank raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.6%. The US inflation pressure was stable, and the market expected the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in January [8][9]. - Fundamental: High aluminum prices suppressed downstream demand, and social inventory was expected to continue to accumulate. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [9]. Alumina - Supply was loose as the environmental policy was relaxed in some areas, and the import window was open. Inventory was high at all levels, putting pressure on prices. Alumina prices are expected to remain weak [10]. Cast Aluminum - Driven by the rising cost of scrap aluminum, cast aluminum prices rose, but downstream acceptance of high prices was limited. Cast aluminum prices are expected to remain strong [11]. Zinc - The US core CPI cooled unexpectedly, and the market speculated about an interest rate cut in April. However, Fed officials' hawkish remarks and weak fundamentals led to a high - level shock in zinc prices. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [12][13]. Lead - Some refineries resumed production, and supply improved. Consumption was under pressure, and social inventory was expected to increase. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate [14]. Tin - Supply - side factors such as the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, the slow resumption of mines in Myanmar, and Indonesia's export policy supported tin prices. However, due to the large short - term increase and crowded capital, there was a risk of adjustment [15]. Steel Products - The demand for construction steel was in the off - season, with a significant decline in apparent demand and a small increase in production. The supply - demand balance was weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate [16]. Iron Ore - Supply was strong due to high arrivals, and demand was stable. The overall supply - demand situation was supply - strong and demand - weak, and iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate [18]. Coking Coal and Coke - Steel enterprises did not respond to the price increase request of coke enterprises. Terminal demand was in the off - season, and the fundamental support was limited. Supply pressure increased, and prices are expected to fluctuate [19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The report was negative, and Brazilian soybean production was certain to be high. The auction of imported soybeans was fully subscribed, which alleviated the supply shortage expectation in the first quarter. Prices are expected to fluctuate [20][21]. Palm Oil - Macro: The US core CPI in December was at a four - year low, and oil prices rose. - Fundamental: The export demand for Malaysian palm oil improved in early January, and the inventory reduction expectation was strengthened. However, the implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy was uncertain. Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen [23][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's actions have increased market disturbances both domestically and internationally, leading to new highs in gold and silver prices, a rise in oil prices, and a recovery in the 10Y US Treasury yield. The A - share market has shown strong performance with 17 consecutive gains, and the market style has rotated to sectors such as the Internet, media, and AI applications. [2][3] - The criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell has boosted the safe - haven sentiment in the financial market, causing gold and silver to reach new highs. The market expects the Fed to maintain interest rates in the January 27 - 28 meeting, and there may be two interest rate cuts this year. [4] - The copper price is expected to maintain a strong high - level oscillation in the short term due to factors such as the resonance with gold and silver, the demand prospects brought by global electrification and AI data center construction, and the structural imbalance in the fundamentals. [6][7] - The aluminum price is expected to remain strong due to the re - inflow of funds after the US Department of Justice's investigation of Powell, which has reduced the pressure of the US dollar on metals. [8] - The alumina price faces significant upward pressure due to the oversupply in the market, high inventory, and general procurement enthusiasm from downstream. [9][10] - The casting aluminum price will follow the cost fluctuations and show a strong performance, but the profit is compressed due to the poor cost transmission in the industrial chain and consumption suppression. [11] - The zinc price is expected to maintain a high - level and strong oscillation in the short term, driven by the macro and capital aspects, although the fundamentals show a divergence, with increased supply pressure and weak downstream consumption. [12][13] - The lead price will maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern, with the inventory increasing slightly but still at a relatively low level, and the supply - demand relationship remaining weak. [14][15] - The tin price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, supported by supply disruptions and consumption growth expectations from sectors such as AI, photovoltaics, and new energy. [16] - The steel price is expected to oscillate, with the industry's prosperity weakening, the demand in the off - season deepening, and the inventory starting to accumulate. [17] - The iron ore price is expected to oscillate, with a high arrival volume at ports and stable demand, resulting in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. [18] - The coking coal and coke prices will fluctuate at a high level. The market sentiment has improved, but the price increase is restricted by the inventory pressure of finished products in the off - season. [19] - The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate in the short term. The USDA report is generally bearish, but the domestic oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories are expected to be depleted faster, providing support for the near - end price. [20][21] - The palm oil price is expected to oscillate and strengthen in the short term. The MPOB report's bearish news has been realized, and the high - frequency data shows an improvement in the supply - demand relationship, which is conducive to inventory depletion. [23][24] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump has increased market disturbances. Domestically, he has launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell and pressured the US Supreme Court on tariff issues. Internationally, he has imposed a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran. Gold and silver have reached new highs, the oil price has risen, the US stock market has closed higher, and the 10Y US Treasury yield has recovered to 4.17%. Attention is paid to the US December CPI data. [2] - Domestic: The A - share market has continued to rise strongly with 17 consecutive gains. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4165 points, and the trading volume of the two markets reached a record high of 3.65 trillion yuan. The market style has rotated to sectors such as the Internet, media, and AI applications. The margin trading volume has reached a new high, and attention is paid to the volume sustainability and the export and financial data to be released this week. [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold and silver have reached new highs. The main reason is the criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell by the US Department of Justice, which has triggered market shocks, a decline in the US dollar index, and an increase in safe - haven demand. The market expects the Fed to maintain interest rates in the January 27 - 28 meeting, and there may be two interest rate cuts this year. [4] 3.3 Copper - On Monday, the Shanghai copper main contract oscillated at a high level, and the LME copper price reached above $13,000. The domestic electrolytic copper spot market had light trading, and the LME inventory decreased to 137,000 tons, while the COMEX inventory continued to increase to 520,000 tons. The criminal investigation of Powell has intensified the contradiction between Trump and Powell, increasing the safe - haven sentiment in the capital market. The copper price is expected to maintain a strong high - level oscillation in the short term. [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - On Monday, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,650 yuan/ton, up 2.54%. The LME aluminum price rose 1.33%. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. The US Department of Justice's investigation of Powell has reduced the pressure of the US dollar on metals, and the re - inflow of funds has led to an increase in the aluminum price. [8] 3.5 Alumina - On Monday, the alumina futures main contract closed at 2,866 yuan/ton, up 1.63%. The spot price was flat, and the theoretical import window was open. The market is in a state of oversupply, and the price faces significant upward pressure. [9][10] 3.6 Casting Aluminum - On Monday, the casting aluminum alloy futures main contract closed at 23,340 yuan/ton, up 2.3%. The spot price also increased. The cost of casting aluminum is supported by the strong performance of primary aluminum, but the profit is compressed due to poor cost transmission and consumption suppression. [11] 3.7 Zinc - On Monday, the Shanghai zinc main contract oscillated strongly, and the LME zinc price closed higher. The spot market had poor trading, and the social inventory decreased slightly. The US Department of Justice's investigation of Powell has led to a decline in the US dollar index, which is beneficial to the metal price. The zinc price is expected to maintain a high - level and strong oscillation in the short term. [12][13] 3.8 Lead - On Monday, the Shanghai lead main contract oscillated widely, and the LME lead price oscillated narrowly. The spot market had active sales by holders at a discount, and the social inventory increased slightly. The lead price will maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern. [14][15] 3.9 Tin - On Monday, the Shanghai tin main contract hit the daily limit, and the LME tin price rose sharply. The supply side is disturbed by factors such as the instability in the Congo and the delay in tin mine复产 in Myanmar. The demand side has consumption growth expectations from sectors such as AI, photovoltaics, and new energy. The tin price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. [16] 3.10 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Monday, the steel futures oscillated. The spot market had a trading volume of 105,000 tons. The industry's prosperity has weakened, with a significant decline in the apparent demand for construction steel and an increase in inventory. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention is paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm. [17] 3.11 Iron Ore - On Monday, the iron ore futures oscillated and adjusted slightly. The spot market had a trading volume of 750,000 tons. The supply side has a high arrival volume at ports, and the demand is stable, resulting in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The price is expected to oscillate. [18] 3.12 Coking Coal and Coke - On Monday, the coking coal and coke futures fluctuated at a high level. Some coking enterprises in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia have raised the coke price. The market sentiment has improved, but the price increase is restricted by the inventory pressure of finished products in the off - season. [19] 3.13 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The USDA January report is generally bearish. The US soybean yield remains unchanged, but the production is slightly increased, the export demand is decreased, and the ending inventory is increased. The South American soybean production is expected to be abundant. The domestic oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, but the de - stocking rhythm is expected to accelerate. The price is expected to oscillate. [20][21] 3.14 Palm Oil - The December MPOB report shows that the Malaysian palm oil ending inventory is slightly higher than expected, but the export volume has increased, and the production has decreased. The high - frequency data in January shows a decrease in production and an increase in exports. The price is expected to oscillate and strengthen in the short term. [22][23][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures rose first and then fell. The macro - economic data in the US was mixed, dampening the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in January. The US Supreme Court did not rule on the tariff issue on January 9, and the ruling may be postponed to January 14. In China, inflation data improved from a low level, and the stock market index reached a ten - year high, keeping the market's bullish sentiment high [3][10]. - The fundamentals deviated from the strong market. Since mid - December, the Shanghai - London price ratio has recovered, the loss of zinc ore imports has narrowed significantly, the decline of processing fees has slowed down. After the zinc price rebounded, smelters' profits improved, and production willingness increased slightly. Refineries that had maintenance in early January resumed production one after another, and the refined zinc output is expected to increase month - on - month. The expected export of zinc ingots has declined, increasing the pressure on the supply side [4][10]. - On the demand side, due to the resumption of work after the New Year's Day holiday and the lifting of environmental protection warnings in the north, the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises rebounded. Terminal orders were differentiated, with weak orders for guardrails and lamp posts and resilient orders for iron towers. Due to weak terminal consumption and rising raw material prices, die - casting zinc alloy enterprises reduced their operating rates. Some zinc oxide enterprises reduced their operating rates due to poor sales caused by high - priced raw materials. Overall, primary enterprises mainly consumed inventory, reduced purchases, and social inventory increased slightly [4][10]. - In the short term, the zinc price is mainly affected by the macro - economic situation and capital. The expectation of loose domestic and foreign monetary policies and strong capital bullish sentiment support the zinc price. However, the fundamentals cannot effectively match, with increasing supply and weakening consumption highlighted by high raw material prices, and social inventory accumulating. It is expected that the influence of capital will increase the volatility of the zinc price, and the futures price will fluctuate widely at a high level [4][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - From January 2 to January 9, the SHFE zinc price rose from 23,275 yuan/ton to 23,970 yuan/ton, an increase of 695 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 3,127 US dollars/ton to 3,149 US dollars/ton, an increase of 22 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio rose from 7.44 to 7.61, an increase of 0.17. The SHFE inventory increased by 4,059 tons to 73,852 tons, the LME inventory increased by 1,125 tons to 107,450 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.37 million tons to 11.85 million tons. The spot premium decreased from 110 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Review - After the New Year's Day holiday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures, ZN2603, reached a high of 24,560 yuan/ton, then some funds took profits and left the market. The zinc price adjusted at a high level along with the non - ferrous metals sector and finally closed at 24,015 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.02%. It fluctuated narrowly at night on Friday. LME zinc rose first and then fell, reaching a high of 3,268 US dollars/ton, then falling back and finding support near the 20 - day moving average below, and finally closing at 3,149 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.7% [6]. - In the spot market, as of January 9, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was concentrated between 23,940 - 24,200 yuan/ton, with a premium of 180 - 200 yuan/ton over the 2602 contract. In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand of 0 zinc was traded at around 23,940 - 24,160 yuan/ton, with a premium of 180 yuan/ton over the 2602 contract and a premium of 90 yuan/ton over the Shanghai spot price. In the Guangdong market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was between 23,770 - 24,050 yuan/ton, with a premium of 20 yuan/ton over the 2602 contract, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed. In the Tianjin market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots was between 23,780 - 24,070 yuan/ton, with a premium of 20 - 70 yuan/ton over the 2602 contract, and Tianjin's price was at a discount of 70 yuan/ton compared to Shanghai. Overall, the market supply increased, traders' willingness to sell improved, the spot premium decreased, but downstream buyers were still reluctant to buy at high prices, and actual spot transactions were mainly among traders [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of January 9, the LME zinc ingot inventory was 107,450 tons, an increase of 1,125 tons from the previous week. The SHFE inventory was 73,852 tons, an increase of 4,059 tons. As of January 8, the social inventory was 11.85 million tons, an increase of 0.87 million tons from December 31 and an increase of 0.37 million tons from January 5. During the week, the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong was large, so Guangdong's spot zinc flowed into the East China region. At the same time, the arrival of goods in Guangdong was less during the week, resulting in a decline in inventory. Affected by the high zinc price during the week, the delivery rhythm in Shanghai and Tianjin slowed down. Coupled with the arrival of imported goods in Zhejiang during the week, the inventory increased [8]. - In the macro - economic aspect, the US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 decreased slightly from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and reaching a new low since October 2024. New orders have contracted for four consecutive months, and export orders are still weak. The ISM services PMI index in December rose 1.8 points to 54.4, the highest level since October 2024. The increase in new orders reached the highest level since September 2024. The US employment market did not show obvious pressure. The non - farm payrolls in December increased by 50,000, lower than the market expectation of 60,000. The November data was revised down by 8,000 to an increase of 56,000, and the October data was further revised down from a decrease of 105,000 to a decrease of 173,000. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%. In China, the CPI in December increased by 0.8% year - on - year, the highest increase since March 2023. The core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, with the increase remaining above 1% for four consecutive months. The CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month, turning from a 0.1% decrease in the previous month. The PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month; it increased by 0.2% month - on - month, rising for three consecutive months [8][9]. 3.3 Industry News - SMM data showed that on January 9, 2026, the average processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were 1,500 yuan/metal ton and 37.5 US dollars/dry ton respectively, with the domestic average remaining flat and the foreign average decreasing by 6.25 US dollars/dry ton compared to the previous period [11]. - Slave Lake Zinc discovered high - grade lead - zinc mineralization in O'Connor Lake, with a maximum of 7.75% Pb and 6.62% Zn [11]. - On January 4, Indian mining group Vedanta Ltd released its production data for the third quarter (Q3 FY26) of the fiscal year ending in December 2025. The production of zinc metal from Indian mines increased by 4% year - on - year, and the production of zinc metal from overseas mines increased significantly by 28% year - on - year. The company said it was mainly due to improved operational efficiency [11]. - Kaz Mineral released its production situation for the third quarter. The report showed that the zinc concentrate metal volume in the third quarter of 2025 was 13,900 tons, and the total zinc concentrate metal volume in the first three quarters of 2025 was 34,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10% [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the price trend charts of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc, the ratio of domestic and foreign markets, spot premiums and discounts, LME premiums and discounts, inventory data of LME, SHFE, social and bonded areas, domestic and foreign zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, smelter profit, domestic refined zinc production, refined zinc net import, and the operating rate of downstream primary enterprises [12][13][14][15][16][17][19][20][21][22][24][26][29][30].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of domestic bauxite has increased slightly, with mines in northern regions resuming production. Guinea's bauxite shipments are stable, while Australia's are significantly affected by the rainy season. Ore trading has been sluggish recently due to compressed profits at downstream alumina plants, ample ore supply, and heightened wait - and - see sentiment. There are both increases and decreases in supply. Alumina plants in Shanxi have resumed production after maintenance, while new production cuts have occurred in Guizhou. Overall, the operating rate has increased by 0.12% compared to last week. The operating rate of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants has increased slightly, but the increase in demand is limited. The warehouse receipt inventory is 160,000 tons, with an increase of 4,814 tons during the week. [3][7] - The non - ferrous metal sector has generally risen. Driven by the bullish market sentiment, along with previous anti - involution news and the market's high expectations for production cuts at loss - making alumina enterprises after the execution of long - term contracts in January, the futures price rebounded last week. However, the actual supply - demand pattern of alumina has not changed significantly. The rise in the futures price may lead to increased imports and postpone domestic planned production cuts. Although the futures price has a chance to build a bottom, there is still significant upward pressure on alumina in reality. It is expected that the short - term trend of alumina will be a decline to find support after the rebound. [3][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Category | 2025/12/31 | 2026/1/9 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 2778 | 2843 | 65 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 2697 | 2693 | - 4 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 75 | 107 | 32 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 307 | 310 | 3 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | - 29.51 | - 67.68 | - 38.2 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse Inventory | 156917 | 159642 | 2725 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse Inventory | 0 | 0 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 590 | 590 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 67.5 | 65 | - 2.5 | US dollars/ton | [4] 3.2 Market Review - The main alumina futures contract rose 2.34% last week, closing at 2,843 yuan/ton. The national weighted average price in the spot market was reported at 2,693 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous week. [5] - The tight supply situation of domestic bauxite has eased compared to the previous period. Mines in northern regions are gradually resuming production, and with the expected commissioning of new mining areas in the long - term, the supply shortage is expected to gradually ease. Guinea's weekly bauxite exports from major ports reached 4.0808 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons from the previous week, indicating stable shipments. Australia's bauxite mining and shipments have been significantly affected by the rainy season. [5] - On the supply side, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina in China is 110.32 million tons/year, and the total operating capacity is 88.82 million tons/year. The weekly operating rate of alumina plants in China increased by 0.12 percentage points to 80.51% compared to last week, maintaining a high - level operation. [5] - On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia have continued to release newly commissioned production capacity, with an increase in operating capacity compared to last week, resulting in a slight increase in alumina demand. [5] - In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory was 160,000 tons on Friday, an increase of 4814 tons during the week, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. [5] 3.3 Market Outlook - The supply of domestic bauxite has increased slightly, with mines in northern regions resuming production. Guinea's bauxite shipments are stable, while Australia's are significantly affected by the rainy season. Ore trading has been sluggish recently due to compressed profits at downstream alumina plants, ample ore supply, and heightened wait - and - see sentiment. There are both increases and decreases in supply. Alumina plants in Shanxi have resumed production after maintenance, while new production cuts have occurred in Guizhou. Overall, the operating rate has increased by 0.12% compared to last week. The operating rate of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants has increased slightly, but the increase in demand is limited. The warehouse receipt inventory is 160,000 tons, with an increase of 4,814 tons during the week. [3][7] - The non - ferrous metal sector has generally risen. Driven by the bullish market sentiment, along with previous anti - involution news and the market's high expectations for production cuts at loss - making alumina enterprises after the execution of long - term contracts in January, the futures price rebounded last week. However, the actual supply - demand pattern of alumina has not changed significantly. The rise in the futures price may lead to increased imports and postpone domestic planned production cuts. Although the futures price has a chance to build a bottom, there is still significant upward pressure on alumina in reality. It is expected that the short - term trend of alumina will be a decline to find support after the rebound. [3][7] 3.4 Industry News - On January 6, 2026, Metro Mining Ltd. released its December 2025 operation report, showing that its bauxite mine achieved an annual shipment volume of 6.2 million wet metric tons in 2025, reaching the lower limit of the revised guidance range, an increase of 500,000 wet metric tons or 9% year - on - year. [8] - Canyon Resources confirmed in an announcement that the development of its Minim Martap bauxite project in Cameroon is progressing smoothly. The surface miner has entered Cameroon, and mining operations are expected to start in February 2026. [8] - On January 5, the Shanxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources publicized the text and review results of the "Exploration Plan for the Yangmaping Block Bauxite Prospecting Right in Fenxi County, Shanxi Province", and the results were approved without objections. [8] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of alumina futures, alumina spot, alumina spot premium, alumina month - to - first - continuous spread, domestic bauxite price, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda price, thermal coal price, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory, which can be used to analyze the market situation of alumina and related raw materials. [10][11][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, although the new jobs in the US employment data were lower than expected, the unemployment rate decreased. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this month. Geopolitical risks in Venezuela have increased the premium of resource products, and the overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is high. On the supply side, new domestic and Indonesian production capacities continue to release increments, and Australia's Tomago aluminum plant may face the risk of non - renewal of power contracts in 2028. On the consumption side, the weekly aluminum processing operating rate remains low, and the State Administration of Taxation announced the cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaics. Aluminum ingot inventories increased by 54,000 tons to 714,000 tons compared to before the holiday, and aluminum rod inventories increased by 30,500 tons to 169,500 tons. Affected by the macro - environment and capital rotation effect, aluminum prices have risen rapidly. The policy issued over the weekend indicates that the cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaics after April may trigger a short - term rush in the photovoltaic industry, leading to a phased increase in sector consumption. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate favorably, with a support level of 23,500 yuan/ton. [3][8] - For cast aluminum, last week, the operating rate of aluminum alloy continued to decline to 58% due to repeated regional environmental protection controls and insufficient orders. On the consumption side, downstream buyers are clearly reluctant to buy at high prices, generally choosing to digest inventories, postpone purchases, or only maintain rigid demand, and some even plan to stop production early, resulting in light market transactions. The exchange inventory increased slightly by 334 tons to 70,000 tons. The pattern of weak supply and demand for cast aluminum continues, but cost support remains strong, so it will maintain a favorable short - term fluctuation. In the medium term, as the macro - bullish atmosphere is gradually digested and capital calms down, cast aluminum may enter a high - level consolidation stage. [3][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - The LME 3 - month aluminum price rose from 2,997 yuan/ton on December 31, 2025, to 3,149 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026, an increase of 152 yuan/ton. The SHFE aluminum continuous - three contract price rose from 22,980 dollars/ton to 24,420 dollars/ton, an increase of 1,440 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio increased from 7.7 to 7.8. The LME spot premium increased from - 27.5 dollars/ton to 8.3 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 13,925 tons to 497,825 tons, while the SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 12,407 tons to 90,912 tons. [5] - The spot average price rose from 22,370 yuan/ton to 23,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,490 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased from - 210 yuan/ton to - 110 yuan/ton. The South China storage spot average price rose from 22,293 yuan/ton to 23,876 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,582.7 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference decreased from 77 yuan/ton to - 16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 92.7 yuan/ton. [5] - The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased from 64.5 tons to 71.4 tons, an increase of 6.9 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased from 15,888.96 yuan/ton to 15,851.64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.3 yuan/ton, and the weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum increased from 6,481.04 yuan/ton to 8,008.36 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,527.3 yuan/ton. [5] - The SMM spot price of cast aluminum rose from 22,450 yuan/ton to 23,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,250 yuan/ton, and the Baotai spot price of cast aluminum rose from 22,000 yuan/ton to 23,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,300 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan increased from 2,009 yuan/ton to 2,761 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it increased from 3,084 yuan/ton to 3,836 yuan/ton, both with an increase of 752 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 334 tons to 69,922 tons. [5] 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of the electrolytic aluminum spot market was 21,968 yuan/ton, up 238 yuan/ton from last week; the weekly average price of the South China storage spot was 21,882 yuan/ton, up 254 yuan/ton from last week. [6] - Macro - economically, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US in December 2025 increased by 50,000, lower than the market expectation of 60,000. The November data was revised down by 8,000 to an increase of 56,000, and the October data was further revised down from a decrease of 105,000 to a decrease of 173,000. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%. After the data was released, the market expected that the possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January was almost zero. [6] - The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 decreased slightly from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and reaching a new low since October 2024. The ISM services PMI index in December rose 1.8 points to 54.4, the highest level since October 2024. The preliminary value of the eurozone CPI in December 2025 slowed to 2%, in line with market expectations. The core CPI slowed from 2.4% in November to 2.3%, and the closely - watched services inflation rate also dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%. [6][7] - On the consumption side of electrolytic aluminum, the operating rate of the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry increased by 0.2 percentage points to 60.1% month - on - month. The operating rates of various aluminum - processing sectors were differentiated, but overall, it presented a pattern of "alleviated supply - side disturbances and intensified demand - side suppression". High aluminum prices became the core factor suppressing downstream consumption and the recovery of the industry's operating rate. [7] - In terms of electrolytic aluminum inventory, on January 8, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 54,000 tons to 714,000 tons compared to before the holiday, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased by 30,500 tons to 169,500 tons. [7] - For cast aluminum, the SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy on Friday was 23,700 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan/ton from last Friday. The spot price of Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 was 23,300 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan/ton from last Friday. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum was 2,761 yuan/ton, up 752 yuan/ton from last Friday, and the refined - scrap price difference of Shanghai machine - made primary aluminum was 2,664 yuan/ton, up 548 yuan/ton from last Friday. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises last week decreased to 58% month - on - month. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory was 70,000 tons, up 334 tons from last Friday. [7] 3.3 Market Outlook - Similar to the core viewpoints, for electrolytic aluminum, prices are expected to fluctuate favorably with a support level of 23,500 yuan/ton. For cast aluminum, it will maintain a favorable short - term fluctuation and may enter a high - level consolidation stage in the medium term. [8][9] 3.4 Industry News - Vietnam's first electrolytic aluminum project, the Dac Nong electrolytic aluminum plant project, is initially planned to be completed and put into production in early July 2026. [11] - Anhui Ruixing Metal Materials Co., Ltd. plans to build a project with an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons of recycled aluminum, and the project is currently in the environmental impact report acceptance and publicity stage. [11] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued an announcement on adjusting the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products. As of April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic and other products will be cancelled. [11][12] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the price trends of LME 3 - month aluminum and SHFE aluminum continuous - three contracts, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, inventory seasonal changes, and cast aluminum - related prices, refined - scrap price differences, and exchange inventories. [13][24][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The downstream steel mills' start - up has rebounded from a low level, with continuous increase in hot metal, but limited upside due to the off - season of terminal demand. The steel mills' coke production remains stable, with a slight increase in daily coke production and stable inventory. The mid - stream coking profit has shrunk significantly, but coke enterprises have good start - up, increased coke production, decreased inventory, and smooth sales. The upstream domestic coal mine production has rebounded after the festival, and coal inventory has increased. Overall, the market sentiment has cooled, the futures price rose sharply and then fell last week. The fundamental support is limited, and the price increase space is restricted. Short - term capital sentiment dominates, and prices fluctuate widely [1][5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3144 | 22 | 0.70 | 6567825 | 2367759 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot Rolled Coil | 3294 | 24 | 0.73 | 2987286 | 1440895 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 814.5 | 25.0 | 3.17 | 1706517 | 636674 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1195.5 | 80.5 | 7.22 | 7162354 | 621167 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1748.0 | 55.0 | 3.25 | 158354 | 39551 | Yuan/ton | [3] 2. Market Review - **Downstream**: The steel mills' start - up rebounded from a low level, and hot metal production increased continuously. However, due to the off - season of terminal demand, the upside of hot metal is limited. The steel mills maintained coke production, with a slight increase in daily coke production and a small change in inventory. Last week, the steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from the previous week and 12.99 percentage points from last year. The daily hot metal production was 229.5 tons, an increase of 2.07 tons from the previous week and 5.13 tons from last year. The daily coke production was 46.88 (+0.05) tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.67% (+0.09). The coke inventory was 645.73 (+1.74) tons, and the available days of coke were 12.02 (-0.08) days [5]. - **Mid - stream**: The coking profit shrank significantly, but coke enterprises had good start - up. Coke production increased, inventory decreased, and sales were smooth. The national average coke profit per ton was - 45 (compared with - 31) yuan/ton. Last week, the capacity utilization rate was 72.69% (+0.97); the daily coke production was 63.57 (+0.85) tons, and the coke inventory was 86.07 (-5.53) tons [6]. - **Upstream**: The domestic coal mine production rebounded after the festival, and coal inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 85.3%, a month - on - month increase of 5.7%. The daily raw coal production was 189.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.7 tons, and the raw coal inventory was 473.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7 tons. The daily clean coal production was 73.4 tons, and the clean coal inventory was 295 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7 tons [6]. - **Overall**: Currently, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia mines have not received official documents and notices related to capacity reduction. The market sentiment has cooled, and the futures price rose sharply and then fell last week. The fundamental support is limited. The current domestic coal mine production has rebounded after the festival, the imported coal inventory is high, and the downstream finished product inventory pressure is large in the off - season, restricting the price increase space. In general, short - term capital sentiment dominates, prices fluctuate widely, and operations need to be cautious [1][6]. 3. Industry News - The US President Trump claimed to have successfully attacked Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and taken them out of Venezuela. The UN Secretary - General was shocked by the escalation of the situation in Venezuela, and the UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on the US military action against Venezuela. - The 2026 People's Bank of China Work Conference emphasized continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly and efficiently to maintain sufficient liquidity. - In December 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1032.66 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 52.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 28.5%. The total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing in 10 key cities was 979.01 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 7.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 27%. - The research on key power coal mines in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia shows that these mines have not received official documents and notices related to capacity reduction, and the market news has not had a substantial impact on coal mine production and sales. According to the Futures Daily, due to the failure to implement power coal supply guarantee in Yulin, 26 coal mines were removed from the supply guarantee list and their capacity was reduced by 19 million tons, accounting for about 3% of the local planned output in 2025; the capacity increase of the remaining 26 coal mines will be retained temporarily and adjusted dynamically according to the performance of medium - and long - term power coal contracts [10]. 4. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the spot price trends of coking coal and coke, the daily output of independent coking plants, the daily coke output of steel mills, the capacity utilization rate of coking enterprises, the daily hot metal output, the inventory of coke at different locations (coking plants, steel mills, ports), the available days of coke for steel mills, the ton - coke profit in different regions, the capacity utilization rate and daily output of coking coal mines, and the inventory of coking coal at different locations [8][11][19][23][28][33][37][39][41].

Report Title - Weekly Report on Soybean Meal [1] Report Date - January 12, 2026 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT March soybean contract rose 15.5 to close at 1062.75 cents per bushel, a 1.48% increase; the soybean meal 05 contract rose 37 to close at 2786 yuan per ton, a 1.35% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 60 to 3140 yuan per ton, a 1.95% increase; the rapeseed meal 05 contract fell 27 to close at 2338 yuan per ton, a 1.14% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 10 to 2510 yuan per ton, a 0.4% decrease [5][8]. - The external market stopped falling and stabilized. The market is waiting for the upcoming USDA report, and funds are adjusting their positions. Currently, it is expected that both yield and exports may be lowered. Pay attention to the guidance of the report. The meal market is generally oscillating, with soybean meal relatively stronger than rapeseed meal. The main reason is that the Prime Minister of Canada will visit China, and market rumors suggest that the additional tariff on rapeseed meal may be cancelled. Driven by sentiment, funds increased short positions, causing rapeseed meal to weaken. On the one hand, the arrival of soybeans has decreased month - on - month, and on the other hand, the pre - Spring Festival stocking expectation provides support for the near - term price of soybean meal [5][8]. - The Prime Minister of Canada is about to visit China, and rapeseed meal has weakened under the influence of sentiment. Pay attention to the progress of China - Canada trade agreements. The January USDA report in the United States is expected to show possible decreases in yield and exports, with little change in ending stocks. Funds are adjusting positions and waiting for the report. The external US soybean market has stopped falling and is oscillating. The good weather in South America continues, and the overall expectation of a bumper harvest has increased. The expected decrease in domestic soybean arrivals and the pre - Spring Festival stocking demand support the spot price, which is relatively firm. The auction of state - reserved imported soybeans restarted this week, cooling the market to some extent. It is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will oscillate in the short term [5][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The CBOT March soybean contract price rose from 1047.25 to 1062.75 cents per bushel, a 1.48% increase; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans rose from 443 to 450 dollars per ton, a 1.58% increase; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans remained unchanged at 475 dollars per ton; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market decreased from 57.12 to 49.51 yuan per ton; the DCE soybean meal contract price rose from 2749 to 2786 yuan per ton, a 1.35% increase; the CZCE rapeseed meal contract price fell from 2365 to 2338 yuan per ton, a 1.14% decrease; the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference increased from 384 to 448 yuan per ton; the spot price in East China rose from 3120 to 3140 yuan per ton, a 0.64% increase; the spot price in South China rose from 3080 to 3140 yuan per ton, a 1.95% increase; the spot - futures price difference in South China increased from 331 to 354 yuan per ton [6]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - In the US, for the week ending January 1, 2026, the net increase in soybean export sales in the 2025/2026 season was 87.8 tons, down from 117.8 tons the previous week. The cumulative sales volume of US soybeans in the current season was 2857.6 tons, with a sales progress of 64.2%, compared to 79.2% in the same period last year. China's net purchase of US soybeans that week was 47 tons, with a cumulative purchase volume of 689.3 tons and an unshipped volume of 570.1 tons. A private exporter reported selling 13.2 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 season [9]. - According to Conab, as of the week ending January 3, 2026, the soybean planting rate in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 98.2%, up from 97.9% the previous week, compared to 98.5% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 97.6%. The harvesting work has begun, with a progress of 0.1%, compared to 0.2% in the same period last year. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters announced that the expected soybean export loading volume in January is 240 tons [9][10]. - According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, as of the week ending January 7, 2026, the soybean sowing progress in Argentina was 88.3%, up from 82% the previous week, compared to 97% in the same period last year [10]. - The weather forecast for South American producing areas shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in Brazilian soybean - producing areas will be slightly lower than the average, and the precipitation process will continue, maintaining the expectation of a bumper harvest. The soil moisture in Argentine producing areas has declined, but the overall situation is still good. The cumulative precipitation in Argentine producing areas in the next two weeks will be lower than the average level. Continuously monitor the weather changes [10]. - As of the week ending January 2, 2026, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 710.25 tons, an increase of 55.81 tons from the previous week and 115.8 tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 117.02 tons, an increase of 0.26 tons from the previous week and 48.66 tons from the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 579.8 tons, an increase of 198.2 tons from the previous week and 81.1 tons from the same period last year. The soybean inventory in national ports was 823.6 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons from the previous week but an increase of 52.74 tons from the same period last year [10]. - As of the week ending January 9, the daily average trading volume of soybean meal nationwide was 30.5417 tons, including 7.675 tons of spot trading and 22.8667 tons of forward trading. The daily average total trading volume the previous week was 20.44 tons. The daily average pickup volume of soybean meal was 17.385 tons, compared to 18.22 tons the previous week. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 176.58 tons, compared to 175.33 tons the previous week. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 9.53 days, compared to 9.4 days the previous week [11]. 3. Industry News - The Safras & Mercado institution stated that factors such as oversupply in South America, the US production outlook, and geopolitical uncertainties will affect the soybean price trend in 2026. Looking forward to 2026, the soybean market will have sufficient supply, and the short - term price will face downward pressure, while the support provided by the premium of Brazilian soybeans will be relatively reduced [12]. - The Argentine Ministry of Agriculture reported that farmers' pace of selling soybeans has slowed down. As of December 31, 2025, the pre - sold volume of soybeans in the 2025/2026 season was 465 tons, compared to 337 tons in the same period last year. The sales volume of soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 4157 tons, compared to 3562 tons in the same period last year [12]. - The ANEC institution predicted that due to increased competition from the US, Brazil's soybean exports to China in 2026 will drop to 77 million tons, about 10 million tons less than 87 million tons in 2025. It is expected that Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 will still reach a record 112 million tons, compared to about 109 million tons in 2025 [12]. - The Deral institution reported that the soybean harvest in Brazil's Parana state is still in its early stages, and preliminary results show good yields. Currently, about 4% of the soybean crops in the state have entered the maturity stage (the last stage before harvest), compared to 12% in the same period last year. Due to abnormal weather in previous months, the growth cycle of early - sown soybeans has been extended, but the yield is expected to be good. The predicted soybean output in Parana state in the 2025/26 season is 21.96 million tons, a 4% year - on - year increase [13]. - The Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat reported that Brazil's soybean export pace in December was significantly higher than the same period last year. From December 1 to 31, Brazil's soybean export volume was 3.383 million tons, compared to 2.006 million tons in December last year [13]. - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will visit China from January 13 to 17, which will be the first visit by a Canadian prime minister to China since 2017. This visit aims to strengthen cooperation between the two sides in trade, energy, agriculture, and international security. According to sources, as part of the consultations, Canada may suspend the tariff on Chinese electric vehicles for one year. In response, China may temporarily cancel the 100% additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, but trade restrictions on Canadian rapeseed will remain [13]. - The StoneX institution reported that the US Department of Agriculture has confirmed the sale of soybeans to China again, increasing the possibility of China achieving its goal of purchasing 12 million tons of soybeans. The predicted soybean output in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is 177.6 million tons, an increase of 0.2% from the December forecast of 177.2 million tons and a 5.2% increase from the previous year's output [14]. - The Cargonave institution reported that Brazil's soybean exports in 2025 reached a record 108.68 million tons, a 11.7% increase from 2024. The surge in Brazil's soybean exports in 2025 was mainly due to record - high production and large - scale purchases from China. Affected by the China - US trade war, Chinese buyers avoided US soybeans for most of 2025 and turned to South American soybeans [14]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the US soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the management fund's net position in the CBOT, the soybean meal main contract trend, the regional soybean meal spot price, the soybean meal M 5 - 9 month spread, the precipitation and temperature in Brazilian and Argentine soybean - producing areas, the soybean sowing progress in Brazil and Argentina, the cumulative sales volume, weekly net sales volume, and weekly export volume of US soybeans, the US oil mill crushing profit, the weekly average daily trading volume and pickup volume of soybean meal, the soybean inventory in ports and oil mills, the weekly crushing volume of oil mills, the unexecuted contracts of oil mills, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises [15][16][17][20][24][28][33][35][37][39][41][45][46].