Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Overseas: The US September non - farm payrolls added 119,000, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, a four - year high. The October non - farm and CPI data were cancelled due to the government shutdown, and the November data will be released after the December FOMC. Fed officials' statements have made the market extremely sensitive. The divergence within the Fed has intensified, and the expectation of a December rate cut has fluctuated. After a series of hawkish remarks from officials, the probability of a December rate cut dropped significantly, but after "Fed's third - in - command" Williams' dovish statement, the market's bet on a December rate cut rose from about 30% to 70%, driving a slight repair of risk assets. This week, focus on the US's September data [3]. - Domestic: Currently in an economic data and policy vacuum period, the weakening of external risk appetite has disturbed the market. The A - share market fell below the 3900 mark last Friday, with a decline of 2.45%. Micro - cap stocks and the ChiNext and STAR Market sectors led the decline. With the increase in the Fed's rate - cut expectation and the recovery of overseas risk assets, the A - share market may rebound, but there is still a risk of a phased correction [3]. Summary by Directory Overseas Macro - 9 - month non - farm employment and unemployment rate were divergent: The September non - farm data exceeded expectations while the unemployment rate rose. The October employment report was cancelled, and the November data will be released after the December FOMC. The probability of a December rate cut rebounded from 30% to 70% [5]. - Employment in goods and services both recovered: In September, the goods sector added 10,000 jobs, the service sector added 87,000 jobs, and the government sector added 22,000 jobs [6]. - Hourly wage growth declined: The monthly wage growth rate in the goods sector decreased from 0.38% to 0.35%, and in the service sector, it decreased from 0.44% to 0.22% [6]. Asset Performance Equity - A - shares and Hong Kong stocks generally declined last week. The Wande All - A Index fell 5.13%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.90%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 5.09%. Different indices had different year - to - date performances, with the ChiNext Index up 36.35% year - to - date [9]. Bond - Domestic bond yields generally showed small fluctuations, while overseas bond yields had different changes. For example, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 7.00 BP, and the 10 - year German Treasury yield rose 4.00 BP [12]. Commodity - Most commodities declined last week. The Nanhua Commodity Index fell 1.81%, the CRB Commodity Index fell 2.24%, and WTI crude oil fell 3.51% [13]. Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index rose 0.87 last week. The US dollar against the RMB and the US dollar against the offshore RMB had different exchange rate changes, and other major currencies against the RMB also showed different trends [15]. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Domestic: High - frequency data includes the congestion index of 100 cities, subway passenger volume in 23 cities, real estate transaction area, passenger car sales, and rebar apparent consumption [17][20]. - Overseas: High - frequency data includes Redbook commercial retail sales, unemployment benefit claims, US Treasury yield spreads, and FedWatch interest rate change probabilities [26][27]. This Week's Important Economic Data and Events - This week, important economic data and events include the November Dallas Fed business activity index, September US retail sales, PPI, housing price index, and other data from the US, as well as China's October industrial enterprise profit data and the eurozone's November industrial and economic sentiment indices [35].

核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 2025 年 11 月 24 日 降息预期降温 铝价调整 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 铝周报 ⚫ 电解铝方面，上周美联储10月议息会议偏鹰，加上其 后公布的美国9月非农数据意外强劲，12月降息预期 大幅回落至30%，市场风险偏好连续下降。基本面新 疆20万吨新增产能投产，开工产能提升，同时铝水比 例回落，铸锭量提高。消费端上周铝加工开工率持平 与62%，消费向淡季切换但走弱幅度不大。下游在绝 对价格低位采购热情较高，周度铝库存停止累库，较 上周四持平于62万吨，铝 ...

氧化铝周报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 供应端过剩未改 氧化铝延续弱势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 矿端，海关数据显示10月单月铝土矿进口回落至 1377万吨，为2025年单月最低，主要是几内亚雨季 影响，目前雨季影响过去，进口矿新产能存释放预 期，后续进口预计供应充足。供应端前期检修的广 西氧化铝厂复产，山东有一台氧化铝焙烧产能检 修，整体氧化铝开工产能基本大稳小动，上周开工 产能持平于9590万吨。消费端电解铝行业刚需招 标采购，消费稳定。仓单库存周内减少2744吨，至 25万吨，厂库0吨，持平。 ⚫ 整体，氧化铝供应 ...

2025 年 11 月 24 日 镍库存高企 关注成本支撑强度 核心观点及策略 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 镍周报 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F 03122184 投资咨询号：Z 0023260 ⚫ 宏观上，美国恢复宏观数据发布，劳动力市场表现褒贬不 一。美联储10月会议纪要显示，其内部对12月降息预期存在 较大分歧。主因联储官员对通胀和劳动力市场的影响力预期 不一致。 ⚫ 产业上，菲律宾与印尼镍矿价格均有走弱迹象，但价格跌幅 有限，成本重心仍处于高位。硫酸镍市场热度降温，尽管 MHP供给依然偏紧，但下游多已完成备货，且市场进入淡 季，硫酸镍镍价下行。 ...

碳酸锂周报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 监管政策与基本面双重压制 锂价或有回落 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F 03122184 投资咨询号：Z 0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周：碳酸锂盘面情绪起伏较大，周初在库存加速去化以 及行业龙头释放利多预期驱动下，主力合约触及涨停。而 随着诸多利空在周尾相继放出，盘面于周五跌停。政策上， 交易所于20日发文对部分碳酸锂合约进行单日限仓管理， 打压盘面投机热度。此外，海关数据显示，碳酸锂进口大 幅环增。枕下窝矿传12月初复产，供给偏紧格局或迎来缓 解，拖累锂价周尾大幅回撤。 ⚫ ...

2025 年 11 月 24 日 出口需求疲软 棕榈油震荡偏弱 棕榈油周报 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连跌57收于4068林吉特/吨，跌幅 1.38%；棕榈油01合约跌94收于8550元/吨，跌幅1.09%； 豆油01合约跌66收于8190元/吨，跌幅0.8%；菜油01合 约跌107收于9816元/吨，跌幅1.08%；CBOT豆油主连涨 0.13收于50.61美分/磅，涨幅0.26%；ICE油菜籽活跃合 约跌3.9收于641.8加元/吨，跌幅 ...

贵金属周报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 降息预期摇摆，金银震荡偏弱 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 李婷 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 | | | | 表 1 上周主要市场贵金属交易数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | 总成交量/手 | 总持仓量/手 | 价格单位 | | SHFE 黄金 | 926.94 | -26.26 | -2.75 | 160310 | 178255 | 元/克 | | 沪金 T+D | 922.68 | -25.30 | -2.67 | 50498 | 230148 | 元/克 | | COMEX 黄金 | 4062.8 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, last week's soda ash operating rate declined slightly, with some soda ash plants having new maintenance plans, leading to a further contraction in supply. However, the enterprise shipment volume was decent, with the weekly shipment scale increasing, and the demand side did not weaken significantly, driving inventory down. In terms of profit, the on - screen profits of the dual - alkali process and the ammonia - soda process have turned negative, and coal prices remain relatively high, which may support costs. It is expected that the short - term fundamentals of soda ash have not weakened significantly, and costs may be supported, with prices fluctuating at a low level [3]. - For glass, the daily melting volume of float glass in production decreased slightly, and the operating rate declined, indicating a contraction in supply. However, the downstream demand has poor resilience, the number of days of deep - processing orders from enterprises has changed from increasing to decreasing, and the inventory of float glass enterprises has further accumulated. In contrast, the supply of photovoltaic glass is stable, but the terminal industry has entered the year - end grid - connection stage, and the purchasing demand is limited. The inventory of photovoltaic glass enterprises has accumulated for two consecutive periods. In addition, it is expected that the domestic real estate support policies may be introduced recently, which may disturb the sentiment in the glass market. It is expected that the glass fundamentals will remain weak, but the new real estate policies may boost market sentiment, and glass prices may stabilize at a low level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Important Data Summary | Indicator | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/14 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soda ash futures price | 1170 | 1226 | - 56.0 | Yuan/ton | | Soda ash spot price | 1140 | 1175 | - 35.0 | Yuan/ton | | Soda ash weekly output | 72.1 | 73.9 | - 1.8 | Ten thousand tons | | Soda ash shipment volume | 78.4 | 74.6 | 3.8 | Ten thousand tons | | Soda ash enterprise inventory | 164.4 | 170.7 | - 6.3 | Ten thousand tons | | Glass futures price | 987 | 1032 | - 45.0 | Yuan/ton | | Glass spot price: Shahe 5mm | 988 | 1028 | - 40.0 | Yuan/ton | | Float glass daily melting volume | 15.8 | 15.9 | - 0.1 | Ten thousand tons | | Float glass enterprise inventory | 6330.3 | 6324.7 | 5.6 | Ten thousand weight boxes | | Photovoltaic glass daily melting volume | 8.9 | 8.9 | 0.0 | Ten thousand tons | | Photovoltaic glass enterprise inventory | 29.4 | 29.1 | 0.3 | Days | [5] 3.2 Market Review - **Price**: The mainstream market price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area dropped from 1218 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week to 1207 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a weekly decline of about 11 yuan/ton. The spot market price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe area dropped from 1016 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week to 1000 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a weekly decline of about 16 yuan/ton [6]. - **Soda ash supply**: Last week, the total soda ash output was about 72.09 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.83 million tons; the operating rate was 83.14%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.31 percentage points. Some soda ash plants joined the maintenance queue. For example, the soda ash plant of Xiangyu Yanhua planned to reduce its load on November 18, with an expected impact period of 5 - 6 days and a total company capacity of about 1 million tons; the soda ash plant of Jiangsu Jingshen planned to reduce its operation on November 19, with an undetermined impact period and a total company capacity of about 700,000 tons. Currently, the on - screen price has fallen below the cost thresholds of the dual - alkali process and the ammonia - soda process, putting pressure on upstream profits, and the maintenance pressure may continue recently, with the supply side remaining weak [6]. - **Soda ash demand**: Last week, the daily melting volume of float glass in production was 15.81 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous period; the number of production lines in operation (excluding zombie production lines) was 222, the same as the previous period. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass in production was 8.94 million tons, the same as the previous period; the number of production lines in operation was 403, the same as the previous period. Affected by the weakening on - screen price, the profits of glass enterprises are under pressure, and the cost support strength of the coal - fired glass process is being focused on. Since the start - stop cost of glass production lines is high, cold - repair of the supply side may release a stronger bottom signal. From the inventory perspective, the inventory of photovoltaic glass enterprises was 29.4 days, an increase of 0.32 days from the previous period. The inventory of float glass was 6330.3 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 5.6 million weight boxes. Overall, the glass supply shows signs of contraction, and the drag on soda ash demand may gradually appear. The further increase in glass enterprise inventory and the weakening of deep - processing order days reflect the weak terminal demand. However, third - party institutions expect that domestic real estate support policies will be introduced recently, which may boost market sentiment. In the short term, attention should be paid to the strength of real estate policies and the progress of coal - to - gas conversion in the Shahe area, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [7]. - **Soda ash inventory**: Last week, the soda ash inventory was 1.6444 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 73,000 tons. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 757,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 128,000 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 887,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 55,000 tons [7]. - **Price difference**: As of November 21, the price difference between soda ash and glass has dropped to around 200 yuan/ton and remained at a relatively low level during the reporting period. From the perspective of product fundamentals, the weak downstream pattern of glass is relatively certain, and there are no bright spots in the fundamentals. However, recent real - estate policies may boost glass prices, and there is still room for long - short games. The fundamentals of soda ash are temporarily better than those of glass, but as the scale of glass cold - repair increases, the resilience of soda ash fundamentals faces challenges. In the short term, both soda ash and glass face certain uncertainties, and the trend of the price difference is unclear, so it is advisable to wait and see [8]. 3.3 Industry News - Honglei Optics, a subsidiary of Hongtian Co., Ltd., completed the order delivery of semiconductor mask lithography machines and TGV glass substrate lithography machines. The mask direct - writing lithography machine has a minimum line - width and line - spacing resolution of 2.5μm and an alignment accuracy of ±2μm, meeting the mass - production lithography requirements of mask products with an L/S of 3μm. The other direct - writing lithography machine for the TGV glass substrate field has a minimum line - width and line - spacing resolution of 6μm and an alignment accuracy of ±4μm, meeting the production requirements of TGV glass substrates with a size of 510mm*515mm [9]. - Qibin Group has built float and photovoltaic glass production bases in Malaysia, with overseas production capacity accounting for 20%. The operation of the Shaba Guda silica sand mine and the supporting wharf has established an integrated overseas supply chain of "resources - production - sales" [9]. - The "coal - to - gas" policy is reshaping the competitive landscape of the glass industry. As an energy - intensive industry, glass production has long relied on coal as the core fuel. This transformation centered on clean - energy substitution not only triggers a structural change on the supply side but also promotes the industry's evolution from "fuel replacement" to "ecological reconstruction" and "value upgrading" [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures first declined and then rebounded. The Fed is divided on a December rate cut, increasing the market's risk aversion. Fundamentals are relatively balanced, with reduced concerns about LME squeezes. Domestic smelters are planning more production cuts due to falling processing fees, but new projects in Xinjiang are ramping up. Demand is in the off - season, with slow destocking in China. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely at low levels, and in the long - term, zinc ingot surpluses may increase, keeping prices under pressure [3][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data - From November 14th to 21st, SHFE zinc decreased from 22,425 yuan/ton to 22,395 yuan/ton, a drop of 30 yuan/ton; LME zinc decreased from 3014.5 dollars/ton to 2992 dollars/ton, a drop of 22.5 dollars/ton. The SHFE - LME ratio increased from 7.44 to 7.48. SHFE inventory decreased by 545 tons to 100347 tons, LME inventory increased by 8350 tons to 47,325 tons, and social inventory decreased by 0.52 million tons to 15.27 million tons. The spot premium increased from - 40 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc switched to ZN2601, with prices first falling and then rebounding. As the Fed's December rate - cut expectation declined, the US dollar held above 100, pressuring risk assets. With the slow increase in LME inventory, concerns about squeezes eased. After the price decline, downstream point - pricing increased, and the price found support near the 40 - day moving average and rebounded weakly, closing at 22390 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.16%. LME zinc stabilized after a high - level decline, with the 60 - day moving average providing support, closing at 2992 dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 0.75% [5]. - In the spot market, at the beginning of the week, the market supply was tight, and traders raised prices, with the spot premium rising. As pre - sold goods and factory shipments arrived, the market supply increased, and the spot premium declined. As of November 21st, LME zinc inventory was 47,325 tons, a weekly increase of 8350 tons; SHFE inventory was 100347 tons, a decrease of 545 tons from the previous week. As of November 20th, social inventory was 15.27 million tons, a decrease of 0.39 million tons from Monday and 0.52 million tons from last Thursday. Shanghai's inventory increased slightly due to some smelters resuming production, while Guangdong and Tianjin's inventories decreased due to downstream restocking after the price decline [6]. 3.3 Industry News - As of November 21st, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 250 yuan/metal ton to 2350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 10.45 dollars/dry ton to 73.05 dollars/dry ton [11]. - In October, zinc ore imports were 34.09 million metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.56% and a year - on - year increase of 2.97%. Refined zinc imports were 1.88 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 67.39%. Refined zinc exports were 8519 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6041 tons. Galvanized sheet exports were 129.94 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.97%. Die - cast zinc alloy exports were 268.71 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 58.67% [11]. - As of the end of October, the Zhugongtang lead - zinc mine's mining and beneficiation project had completed an investment of 555 million yuan in 2025, with smooth infrastructure progress. The beneficiation plant is expected to complete a trial run by the end of December, and the tailings pond will start trial operation. The underground equipment is expected to start a trial run in June 2026 [11]. - Xinjiang Baochen Supply Chain Co., Ltd. is selling zinc ingots on behalf of Xinjiang Kunlun Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. through online reverse bidding, including 3000 tons of 1 zinc ingots and 7000 tons of 0 zinc ingots [12].

工业硅周报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 市场情绪降温，工业硅冲高回落 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 ⚫ 上周工业硅冲高回落，主因工业品市场情绪有所回落，多 晶硅产能出清平台仍未落地，有机硅减产情绪短期有所释 放。供应来看，新疆地区开工率维持85%，西南地区枯水 期开工率回落，内蒙和甘肃产量平稳，供应端继续收缩； 从需求侧来看，多晶硅产能出清平台迟迟无法兑现，龙头 企业挺价撑市但下游 ...