Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For soda ash, multiple plants underwent concentrated maintenance last week, and some plants reduced their load, causing a slight decline in the operating rate and a contraction in weekly supply. Demand showed a slight recovery in shipments but remained below previous highs, with weak market feedback and poor downstream purchasing willingness. Since November, soda ash inventories have continued to accumulate, and the demand side has no significant boost, so the fundamentals maintain a bearish view. In terms of cost, the on - screen profit of the ammonia - soda process has turned negative, and the combined - soda process is on the verge of profit and loss. Overall, recent plant maintenance has boosted the fundamentals, but the shutdown period is short, and upstream restart may weaken the fundamentals. As the on - screen profit weakens, the cost logic may gradually emerge, and soda ash is expected to fluctuate at a low level [3]. - For glass, the daily melting volume of float glass is stable, and the number of operating production lines remains the same, with no obvious changes on the supply side. Downstream orders are fair, and the number of deep - processing order days for float glass enterprises has slightly increased, but glass enterprise inventories are still at an absolute high in the past three years, and there are no obvious seasonal de - stocking signs. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has increased slightly month - on - month, and the number of operating production lines has increased, indicating stronger supply. However, demand is weak, and the inventory days of photovoltaic glass enterprises have further increased with a steep accumulation slope. Overall, both float glass and photovoltaic glass face inventory pressure and weak demand, so glass prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the progress of the coal - to - gas policy in the Shahe area on the fundamentals and the position - holding risk of the glass main contract on the on - screen side [3]. - As of November 14, the price spread between soda ash and glass has reached 194 yuan/ton, expanding by 75 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. Although the total inventory of soda ash enterprises has increased month - on - month, the increase in photovoltaic glass production is still driving the de - stocking of heavy - soda ash inventory. In contrast, glass demand is sluggish, and both float glass and photovoltaic glass have strong inventory pressure. The fundamentals of soda ash are relatively better than those of glass. However, the price spread has expanded to an absolute high in the second half of the year, and there is a certain position - holding risk for glass. Therefore, it is not cost - effective to further go long on the spread, and short - term waiting and watching are advisable [8][9]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog Market Important Data Summary | Indicator | 2025/11/14 | 2025/11/7 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soda ash futures price | 1226 | 1210 | 16.0 | yuan/ton | | Soda ash spot price | 1175 | 1160 | 15.0 | yuan/ton | | Soda ash weekly output | 73.9 | 74.7 | - 0.8 | million tons | | Soda ash shipment volume | 74.6 | 73.4 | 1.2 | million tons | | Soda ash enterprise inventory | 170.6 | 169.2 | 1.4 | million tons | | Glass futures price | 1032 | 1091 | - 59.0 | yuan/ton | | Glass spot price (Shahe 5mm) | 1028 | 1052 | - 24.0 | yuan/ton | | Float glass daily melting volume | 15.9 | 15.9 | 0.0 | yuan/ton | | Float glass enterprise inventory | 6324.7 | 6313.6 | 11.1 | ten - thousand weight boxes | | Photovoltaic glass daily melting volume | 8.9 | 8.8 | 0.1 | million tons | | Photovoltaic glass enterprise inventory | 29.1 | 28.4 | 0.7 | days | [5] Market Review - Price: The mainstream market price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe area rose from 1175 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week to 1195 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of about 20 yuan/ton. The spot market price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe area dropped from 1036 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week to 1028 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of about 8 yuan/ton [6]. - Soda ash supply: Last week, the total soda ash output was about 73.92 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7600 tons; the operating rate was 84.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points. Recent concentrated maintenance and load - reduction operations of multiple soda ash plants have led to a contraction in upstream supply. However, the shutdown period of the maintenance capacity is short, and there is a strong restart expectation in the near term. In contrast, the capacity with load - reduction operation has not given a clear recovery plan. It is expected that soda ash supply will increase marginally driven by upstream restart, but the increase may not reach previous levels [6]. - Soda ash demand: Last week, the daily melting volume of float glass in production was 15.91 million tons, the same as the previous period; the number of production lines in production (excluding zombie lines) was 222, the same as the previous period. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass in production was 8.94 million tons, an increase of 0.13 million tons compared to the previous period; the number of production lines in production was 403, an increase of 6 compared to the previous period. The slight increase in photovoltaic glass production has slightly driven the demand for soda ash. However, from the inventory perspective, the inventory of photovoltaic glass enterprises has reached 29.08 days, an increase of 0.71 days compared to the previous period. The float glass inventory was 6324.7 ten - thousand weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 11.1 ten - thousand weight boxes. During the reporting period, large glass manufacturers actively reduced shipments, and the profit - sharing space in the Shahe area was large. However, the real - estate industry is still sluggish, and the wind and solar projects have entered the grid - connection stage, resulting in poor downstream purchasing power and limited weekly shipment volume. It is worth noting that the prices of soda ash and coal have both risen slightly recently, and the cost center has shifted upward. Overall, high glass inventory and weak terminal - industry demand maintain a bearish expectation for the fundamentals. However, the increase in the cost center may support prices, and glass is expected to fluctuate at a low level [7]. - Soda ash inventory: Last week, the soda ash inventory was 170.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.11 million tons. Among them, the light - soda ash inventory was 80.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.25 million tons; the heavy - soda ash inventory was 90.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 million tons [7]. Industry News - Yutong Optics: Driven by new consumer business, performance has grown, and the production capacity of molded glass will be expanded to 8 million pieces per month. In the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue and net profit increased rapidly, mainly benefiting from revenue growth, product - structure optimization, an increase in the proportion of overseas revenue, the rapid expansion of new consumer business, and a 1.7 - percentage - point increase in the comprehensive gross profit margin year - on - year. Currently, the molded glass (aspherical glass lenses) is in full production and in short supply. The company plans to expand the production capacity from the current monthly output of about 6 million pieces to 8 million pieces by the end of the year [10]. - Omdia: In the third quarter of 2025, the revenue of display glass reached a record 270 billion yen. Driven by both price and demand growth, it increased by 14% year - on - year and 5% quarter - on - quarter. Currently, the trading currency for display glass is still mainly the yen [10]. - Fuyao Glass: Focusing on providing full solutions for automotive glass and trim, and promoting research on the intelligent and integrated trends. The company is strengthening research on the intelligent and integrated trends of automotive glass and continuously promoting the aluminum - trim business to provide more comprehensive product solutions and services for OEM and ARG market users. With the development of the automotive industry towards electrification and intelligence, more and more new technologies are being integrated into automotive glass, and there is still room for growth in the automotive industry and automotive glass [10].

豆粕周报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 USDA 报告利多兑现 连粕震荡运行 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆1月合约涨5.25收于1122.5美分/蒲式 耳，涨幅0.47%；豆粕01合约涨34收于3092元/吨，涨幅 1.11%；华南豆粕现货涨40收于3040元/吨，涨幅1.33%； 菜粕01合约跌49收于2490元/吨，跌幅1.93%；广西菜粕 现货跌40收于2590元/吨，跌幅1.52%。 ⚫ 美国农业部报告发布前，利多预期支撑，外盘偏强 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the price of lithium carbonate rose significantly and then entered a high - level oscillation. The main reason was that on November 6, the Natural Resources Department of Jiangxi Province released the publicity of the evaluation of the transfer right - of - use fee for Zhenxiawo Mine, which increased the cost and limited the supply increment in November. However, bulls were cautious near the previous high, and the selling pressure was strong, leading to the high - level oscillation of the price [4]. - In the later stage, there will be a fierce game between bulls and bears, and the lithium price will fluctuate widely. From the bull's perspective, there is no expectation of Zhenxiawo Mine's resumption in the short term, with a bottleneck in supply increment. Terminal power demand is strong, inventory is accelerating depletion, and the fundamentals are improving. Also, driven by policies and large industrial orders, the demand for energy storage is expected to increase. From the bear's perspective, terminal power demand may decline in December, and the increment of imported resources is clear, which may cool down the fundamentals [4][13]. Group 3: Summary by Sections Market Data - From November 7 to November 14, 2025, the price of imported lithium ore (1.3% - 2.2%) decreased from 147 to 140 dollars/ton, a decline of 5.10%; the price of imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) decreased from 904 to 891 dollars/ton, a decline of 1.44%; the price of domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) decreased from 904 to 891 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.44%; the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 8.23 to 8.74 million yuan/ton, an increase of 6.15%; the price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased from 8.05 to 8.57 million yuan/ton, an increase of 6.54%; the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 123,777 to 121,140 tons, a decline of 2.13% [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - **Regulatory and Delivery**: As of November 14, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 27,170 lots, with the latest matching transaction price of 86,880 yuan/ton. The holding scale of the main contract 2601 was 516,800 lots [7]. - **Supply Side**: As of November 14, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 23,850 tons, an increase of 385 tons from the previous period. Zhenxiawo Mine was still shut down, and it was difficult to resume production in November. Although the supply of lithium concentrate was abundant, the processing capacity of spodumene - based lithium production had a bottleneck, and the output of northern salt lakes would weaken with the cold weather, so the short - term supply shortage was difficult to ease [7]. - **Lithium Salt Import**: In September, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 19,597 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3% and a year - on - year increase of 20%. The import from Chile was about 1.08 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.5%, accounting for about 55.2%; the import from Argentina was 6,948 tons, a year - on - year increase of 242.9%, accounting for about 35.5%. In October, the scale of lithium carbonate shipped from Chile to China was about 16,000 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of about 46%. With the ramp - up of Zijin Mining's 3Q project, there was a strong expectation of an increase in imports from Argentina [8]. - **Lithium Ore Import**: In September, the total import of lithium ore was about 711,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.8%. The import from Australia was 347,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64.1%; the import from Zimbabwe was about 109,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.8%; the import from Nigeria was about 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.4%; the import from South Africa increased significantly to about 108,700 tons [8][9]. - **Demand**: - **Downstream Cathode Materials**: As of November 14, the total output of lithium iron phosphate was about 99,906 tons, with an operating rate of 87.92%, an increase of 2.68 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 39,732 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period. The total output of ternary materials was about 19,784 tons, with an operating rate of 51.77%, an increase of 0.26 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 12,090 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous period. The price of ternary materials was relatively stable, and the price of lithium iron phosphate increased [10]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: From November 1 to 9, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 265,000, a year - on - year decrease of 5% compared with the same period in November last year and a month - on - month increase of 16%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 1,041.5 million, a year - on - year increase of 21%. There were large fluctuations in the delivery rhythm of car companies. Policies on new - energy vehicle subsidies varied among different provinces and cities [11]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 121,140 tons, a decrease of about 2,637 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 22,140 tons, a decrease of about 160 tons from the previous period; the market inventory was 71,508 tons, a decrease of about 1,273 tons from the previous period; the exchange inventory was 27,170 lots, a decrease of 162 lots from the previous week [12]. This Week's Outlook - There will be a fierce game between bulls and bears, and the lithium price will fluctuate widely. The short - term supply bottleneck and strong terminal demand support the bullish view, while the possible decline in terminal power demand in December and the clear increment of imported resources support the bearish view [13]. Industry News - Fosu Technology plans to jointly establish a project company with Zijin Lithium Yuan and others to invest in a battery - grade lithium sulfide pilot - scale platform project. The project company has a registered capital of 100 million yuan, and Fosu Technology will contribute 5 million yuan, accounting for 5% of the equity. The planned total investment of the project is 113 million yuan, and a 100 - ton/year lithium sulfide production line will be built [14]. - Posco Holdings will invest $765 million to acquire a 30% stake in the lithium business of Mineral Resources Ltd. in Australia and will form a joint venture. Posco Holdings will have partial ownership of two mines in Western Australia and will obtain lithium concentrate equivalent to its equity [14]. - After the technological transformation of Shilei Fluorine Materials is completed, the production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate of New宙邦 will increase to 36,000 tons/year. Currently, the production capacity is 24,000 tons/year [14]. - Shenzhen Xingxing is arranging the installation of equipment before the production of 7,200 - ton lithium hexafluorophosphate capacity. The construction of this capacity was basically completed in mid - 2024 but was not put into production due to low market prices [14]. - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced the suspension of the implementation of export controls on some items including lithium batteries from November 7, 2025, to November 10, 2026 [14].

焦煤焦炭周报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 矿山产量增加 双焦震荡走势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 ⚫ 下游：钢厂铁水产量反弹，煤焦需求增加。钢厂焦炭产 量小幅增加，库存回落，可用天水减少。 ⚫ 中游：焦化企业持续亏损，生产意愿一般。上周第四轮 提涨基本落地，因焦煤偏强焦企的亏损增加，焦炭产量 减少。 ⚫ 上游：煤矿方面，矿山生产有所加快，焦煤供应增加， 有力缓解了供应紧张情况。523家炼焦煤矿山样本核定 产能利用率为86.3%，环比+2.5%。原煤日均产量192万 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, Fed officials' hawkish remarks have led to a convergence of the December interest - rate cut expectation, with the market - priced probability dropping from 60% to 50%. The end of the US government shutdown and other factors have affected the financial markets. Domestically, October's credit and social financing data were weak. The A - share market may reach new highs in the short term but faces adjustment risks, while the bond market is in a volatile and differentiated state [2][3]. - The recent rebound in precious metal prices has ended, and they will enter a new adjustment phase. Copper prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the short term. Aluminum prices may undergo high - level consolidation due to short - term macro - mood changes. Alumina futures will continue to oscillate. Cast aluminum will mainly follow the high - level oscillations of primary aluminum. Zinc prices will oscillate weakly in the short term. Lead prices will undergo high - level adjustments. Tin prices will experience high - level adjustments with limited adjustment ranges. Industrial silicon prices will shift to oscillations in the short term. Lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate widely. Nickel prices have limited downside space. Soda ash and glass prices will maintain low - level oscillations. Steel prices will mainly oscillate and adjust. Iron ore prices will face pressure. Coking coal and coke prices will oscillate. Bean and rapeseed meal prices will oscillate and adjust. Palm oil prices will oscillate in the short term [4][7][8][10][11][12][14][15][17][19][21][23][24][25][26][29][31]. Summaries by Catalog Macroeconomics - Overseas: Fed officials are concerned about inflation stickiness. After two interest - rate cuts this year, the labor market has stabilized. The market - priced probability of a December interest - rate cut has dropped from 60% to 50%. Trump signed a bill to end the government shutdown, which caused about $1.5 trillion in losses. The US dollar index fell to 99.1, the US stock market fell by more than 2%, US bond yields rose, and gold, copper, and oil prices were affected [2]. - Domestic: In October, credit and social financing weakened. Government bond issuance declined, and real - economy financing demand was weak. The A - share market rose unilaterally, but there is a risk of subsequent adjustments. The bond market was volatile and differentiated, and long - term bond yields weakened [3]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, international precious - metal futures prices fell. COMEX gold futures dropped 0.93% to $4174.5 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.30% to $52.23 per ounce. The reopening of the US government, Fed officials' hawkish remarks, and a decline in interest - rate cut expectations led to a correction in precious - metal prices [4]. Copper - On Thursday, SHFE copper prices strengthened, and LME copper prices rose and then slightly declined. The internal divergence between hawkish and dovish factions at the Fed is prominent, and the December interest - rate cut is still uncertain, which drags down market risk appetite. Globally, the tight supply situation at mines continues, domestic refined copper production decreases monthly, and emerging industries drive new demand. Copper prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the short term, with attention to the $11000 resistance for LME copper [6][7]. Aluminum - On Thursday, SHFE aluminum prices rose, and LME aluminum prices fell. The change in short - term macro - mood may lead to high - level consolidation of aluminum prices. Domestically, aluminum social inventories decreased slightly this week, and overseas supply is expected to be disrupted due to power shortages, providing strong support for aluminum prices [8][9]. Alumina - On Thursday, alumina futures prices rose. The bearish effect of supply - demand balance and surplus continues to affect prices, but as spot prices approach costs and with the start of the heating season in the north, the expectation of production cuts is strengthening. The futures market is in a state of multi - empty game and will continue to oscillate [10]. Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, cast - aluminum alloy futures prices rose. The cost of scrap aluminum is tight, and copper and industrial silicon prices remain high, providing strong cost support. Supply is stable, and terminal automobile consumption is resilient. After reaching a new high, the position decreased slightly, and cast - aluminum prices are expected to follow the high - level oscillations of primary aluminum [11]. Zinc - On Thursday, SHFE zinc prices were volatile, and LME zinc prices strengthened. The end of the US government shutdown and Fed officials' cautious signals on interest - rate cuts weakened market sentiment, causing zinc prices to fall. Domestic zinc exports are being realized, and overseas liquidity pressure has eased, weakening the support for zinc prices. Domestic consumption has weakened, but there is support at the bottom due to pressure on processing fees. Zinc prices will oscillate weakly in the short term [12]. Lead - On Thursday, SHFE lead prices fell, and LME lead prices were narrowly oscillating. The spread between futures and spot prices widened, and the willingness of holders to deliver increased. Social inventories increased, and the contradiction between supply and demand was alleviated. Lead prices are expected to undergo high - level adjustments in the short term [13][14]. Tin - On Thursday, SHFE tin prices were volatile at a high level, and LME tin prices weakened. Market risk appetite declined, and SHFE tin prices decreased with reduced positions. Supply recovery is slow, and emerging demand has good prospects. Tin prices are expected to adjust at a high level with a limited adjustment range [15]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, industrial silicon prices oscillated. Supply has shifted to marginal contraction, and demand is cautious. The recent positive market sentiment has been realized, and prices are expected to shift to oscillations in the short term [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. Domestic policies support energy storage development, and industry leaders have signed large - scale orders, but the growth rate of new - energy vehicle sales has turned negative year - on - year, and there is an expectation of strong import resource growth. Lithium prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [18][19]. Nickel - On Thursday, nickel prices oscillated weakly. Fed officials' hawkish remarks have reduced the expectation of a December interest - rate cut, but the Fed's bond - buying plan may ease dollar liquidity pressure. Philippine nickel ore prices are high, providing strong cost support. Nickel prices have limited downside space [20][21]. Soda Ash and Glass - On Thursday, soda - ash futures prices strengthened, and glass futures prices oscillated. Soda - ash production has decreased due to concentrated maintenance, and inventory has slightly declined. Glass demand is weak, and inventory has increased. Soda - ash and glass prices are expected to maintain low - level oscillations in the short term [22][23]. Steel - On Thursday, steel futures prices oscillated and rebounded slightly. This week, the supply of five major steel products decreased, inventory declined, and apparent consumption decreased slightly. Steel prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [24]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron - ore futures prices oscillated and rebounded. This week, port inventory increased, and downstream demand entered the off - season. Iron - ore prices are expected to face pressure [25]. Coking Coal and Coke - On Thursday, coking - coal and coke futures prices oscillated. Coal mine production has recovered, and the fourth round of coke price increases has partially taken effect. Downstream steel mills have increased maintenance, and demand for raw materials is expected to weaken. Coking - coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate [26]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, bean - meal and rapeseed - meal futures prices rose. The US government shutdown has ended, and the USDA crop - yield assessment report is about to be released. The market has a bullish expectation, and external - market prices are rising, providing cost support. Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [27][29]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, palm - oil, soybean - oil, and rapeseed - oil futures prices rose. The supply of rapeseed oil is expected to tighten, and it has shown strength. The supply of palm oil is loose, but the upcoming road test of Indonesia's B50 in December and its implementation in the second half of next year have boosted market sentiment. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [30][31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International gold prices are strongly rising, while the A - share market is in a state of volatile consolidation with shrinking trading volume. The probability of a Fed rate cut in December is increasing, and the market is pricing in a 60% chance of a rate cut. The price of gold has reached 4200, and the oil price has dropped by more than 4%. The A - share market may still reach new highs in the short term, but there are risks of subsequent adjustments. In the medium - to - long - term, it is still cost - effective to buy on dips. The bond market is in a volatile rebound [2][3]. - Precious metals are rising significantly due to increased expectations of a rate cut. However, caution is needed as the prices are approaching historical highs. Copper prices are oscillating strongly, and the market is speculating that the Fed may accelerate its easing path after a possible leadership change. Aluminum prices are rising with capital support, while alumina continues to be weak. Cast aluminum is strong, zinc is oscillating, lead is following the upward trend of the outer market but with limited upside, tin is strongly oscillating, and industrial silicon is oscillating with marginal improvements in supply and demand. Lithium carbonate prices are oscillating widely, nickel is oscillating at a low level, and soda ash and glass are oscillating at a low level [4][6][8][11]. - Steel prices are oscillating and adjusting, iron ore prices are under pressure, and coking coal and coke prices are oscillating and adjusting. For agricultural products, soybean and rapeseed meal are oscillating and adjusting, and palm oil is oscillating [24][25][26][28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views 3.1.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump plans to sign a continuous appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown. The Bureau of Labor Statistics may release the September non - farm payroll data on Friday, and the October data may be permanently missing. Trump proposes a $2000 tax refund for families with an annual income of less than $100,000. The market's pricing of a December rate cut has risen to 60%. The U.S. bond yield is falling, the dollar index is oscillating, the gold price has soared to 4200, and the oil price has dropped by more than 4% [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market is in a wide - range oscillation, with more than 3500 stocks closing down and the trading volume dropping to 1.96 trillion. The Shanghai 50 and dividend - style stocks are outperforming the technology stocks. The insurance and energy equipment sectors are leading the gains. The market lacks macro and event catalysts in the short term, and there may still be new highs, but risks of subsequent adjustments should be watched out for. In the medium - to - long - term, it is still cost - effective to buy on dips. The bond market is in a volatile rebound, and it is expected to remain in a relatively strong oscillating pattern in the short term [3]. 3.1.2 Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures rose 2.07% to $4201.4 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.90% to $53.23 per ounce, approaching the historical high again. The end of the U.S. government shutdown and the expected release of economic data are boosting the market's expectations of a Fed rate cut in December. There are concerns about a shortage of silver supply, but caution is needed as the prices are approaching historical highs [4][5]. 3.1.3 Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the London copper has retreated slightly after reaching $11000. The spot market trading is dull, and downstream buyers are mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The market is speculating that the Fed may accelerate its easing path after a possible leadership change. China's cumulative imports of copper ore and concentrates from January to October increased by 7.5% year - on - year. Copper prices are expected to remain high and oscillate in the short term [6][7]. 3.1.4 Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 21880 yuan/ton, up 0.88%. The LME aluminum closed at $2886 per ton, up 0.23%. The macro - level expectation of a Fed rate cut is beneficial to the market sentiment. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is stable, and the supply of aluminum ingots may increase. Although it is the off - season for consumption, the consumption in the automotive and power sectors remains resilient. The inflow of funds is driving the aluminum price to continue rising [8][9][10]. 3.1.5 Alumina - The alumina futures main contract closed at 2821 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The supply of alumina is abundant, the consumption is mainly for rigid demand, and the inventory is increasing. The market is still bearish, and the price continues to be weak. Attention should be paid to cost support and winter heating policies in the north [11]. 3.1.6 Cast Aluminum - The cast aluminum alloy futures main contract closed at 21245 yuan/ton, up 0.83%. Driven by the new high of Shanghai aluminum, the cast aluminum futures are rising rapidly. The raw material scrap aluminum is in short supply, and the cost support is strong. The market is dominated by bullish sentiment, and the price is strong [12]. 3.1.7 Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract is oscillating narrowly during the day and rising after a lower opening at night. The spot market trading is cold, and downstream buyers are cautious in purchasing due to high prices. The overall market sentiment may improve with the possible end of the U.S. government shutdown. The expected increase in zinc ingot exports and the possible reduction in smelter production are providing support to the price, but weak consumption and high inventory are limiting the upside. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. 3.1.8 Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract is rising after an intraday high - level pullback and oscillating at a high level at night. The LME lead has risen for five consecutive days, and the Shanghai lead is following the upward trend with continuous capital inflows. However, the fundamental support is weakening, and the supply - demand mismatch is being alleviated. The price is expected to remain strong in the short term, but the upside is limited [14][15]. 3.1.9 Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract is oscillating horizontally during the day and rising after a higher opening at night. The end of the U.S. government shutdown is improving market risk appetite, and the weakening dollar is beneficial to the rise of London tin, which in turn drives up the Shanghai tin price. The supply is strongly supported, and the global inventory is at a low level. The strong performance of the U.S. semiconductor sector is boosting demand expectations. Tin prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [16]. 3.1.10 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon is oscillating. The inventory of warehouse receipts is falling, mainly due to the reduction in production in the southwest region during the dry season. The supply is marginally shrinking, and the demand is showing marginal improvements. The price is expected to remain strong and oscillate in the short term [17][18]. 3.1.11 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are oscillating widely, and the spot price is rising. The inventory is being depleted rapidly, and the supply growth is slowing down. However, there are strong expectations of an increase in imports, and the resilience of the power terminal is in question. The price is expected to oscillate widely due to the intense game between bulls and bears [19][20]. 3.1.12 Nickel - Nickel prices are oscillating weakly. The Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet in early December, which may put pressure on the U.S. dollar index. The rainy season in the Philippines is affecting the shipment of nickel ore, providing cost support. The real - estate market is weak, and steel mills' production of stainless steel is flat. Although the fundamental situation is weak, the nickel price is at the bottom of the range, and low - buying opportunities can be considered [21]. 3.1.13 Soda Ash and Glass - The soda ash and glass main contracts are oscillating weakly. Some soda ash production facilities are planning to reduce production or undergo maintenance. The glass market has high inventory and weak demand, and the price may continue to decline, but attention should be paid to the risk of high positions [22][23]. 3.1.14 Steel - Steel futures are oscillating weakly. The spot market demand is weak due to the cold weather in the north. The production and apparent demand of steel are expected to remain weak. Steel prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [24]. 3.1.15 Iron Ore - Iron ore futures are oscillating. The supply pressure is increasing as the port inventory is rising, and the demand is weakening as the downstream is entering the off - season. The first shipment of iron ore from the Simandou project has little short - term impact on supply but may change the global supply pattern in the long term. Iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure [25]. 3.1.16 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke futures are oscillating. Coke enterprises are proposing a fourth - round price increase, but steel mills have not responded. The supply tension is easing, and the demand expectation is weakening. The prices are expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [26]. 3.1.17 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal 01 contract rose 0.03%, and the rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 0.52%. The production of soybeans in South America is progressing steadily, and the production of Australian rapeseed is expected to remain at 630,000 tons. The market is paying attention to the purchase progress of U.S. soybeans and the USDA report after the government shutdown. The far - month basis trading of soybean meal has increased, and the prices are expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [27][28][29]. 3.1.18 Palm Oil - The palm oil 01 contract fell 0.09%. The OPEC report indicates a possible oversupply in the oil market, and the international oil price has dropped significantly. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil are expected to decline in November, and the inventory may continue to increase. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [30][31]. 3.2 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interests, and price units of various metal futures contracts, including copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, and silver, in both the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the London Metal Exchange [32]. 3.3 Industrial Data Perspective - The report presents detailed industrial data for copper and nickel, including the prices of main contracts, warehouse receipts, inventory, spot premiums and discounts, and price ratios between different markets and varieties [33][35][36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US private - sector employment data is cooling, with the ADP small - non - farm employment in October decreasing by 45,000, the largest decline since March 2023. The small - business confidence index dropped to a six - month low. There is uncertainty in economic assessment due to potential missing economic data. In the US, the stock market is divided, the 10Y Treasury yield fell to 4.06%, the US dollar index weakened to 99.5, gold prices rose, copper prices rose, and oil prices rose by over 1% [2]. - Domestically, the A - share market opened higher and closed lower, with the trading volume of the two markets falling to 2 trillion. The micro - cap and dividend styles are still dominant over the technology style. In the short term, there may be new highs, but there is a risk of subsequent adjustments. In the long - term, it is still cost - effective to buy on dips. The bond market is oscillating, waiting for the release of October financial and economic data. The central bank emphasizes strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments [3]. - For precious metals, the optimistic expectation of interest rate cuts boosted gold and silver prices. The US Senate's bill to end the government shutdown and the expected weak economic data may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates in December. The demand for gold is expected to be strong this year and next, and the price may reach $4,700 per ounce [4]. - For copper, the market is cautious. The weak US labor market requires continuous interest rate cuts. The global mine supply is tight, and domestic social inventories are decreasing marginally. Copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [6][7]. - For aluminum, the macro - narrative is positive. The end of the US government shutdown, the resumption of economic data, and the dovish shift in the Fed's stance are positive. The supply and demand are relatively stable, and aluminum prices will continue to be strong and volatile [8]. - For alumina, the supply pressure persists, and the price remains weak. The production capacity is high, but the market expects potential production cuts in winter, so the price is oscillating at a low level [9][10]. - For zinc, the market is worried about the deterioration of the US labor market. The LME has low inventories and a strong structure, which supports zinc prices. However, weak domestic consumption limits the upside space, and zinc prices will oscillate [12]. - For lead, the LME is strong, driving up the price of Shanghai lead. The supply shortage in the domestic market has been alleviated, and Shanghai lead is expected to be strong in the short term but may face a pull - back risk [13][14]. - For tin, the weak US employment and the slow recovery of Indonesian tin exports support tin prices. However, the volatile macro - sentiment and high raw material prices may lead to a pull - back in tin prices [15]. - For industrial silicon, the supply is contracting marginally, and the demand is weakening. The price will oscillate in the short term [16][17]. - For lithium carbonate, the current fundamentals are strong, but there are risks of increased imports and weakening demand in the future. The price will fluctuate widely [18][19]. - For nickel, the weak US labor market boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts, which is positive for nickel prices. The high cost of nickel ore limits the downside space, but the high inventory weakens the fundamentals [20]. - For soda ash and glass, there are maintenance plans for soda ash production lines, and the glass production line's daily melting volume is weakening. Both lack demand - driven price increases and may oscillate at a low level [21][22]. - For steel products, the supply and demand are both weak, and steel prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [23][24]. - For iron ore, port inventories are increasing, and the price will oscillate weakly [25]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, the South American production is expected to be good. The market is waiting for the USDA report, and the price will oscillate and adjust [26][27]. - For palm oil, the weak US employment data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. The supply of rapeseed oil is tightening, and the price of vegetable oil has rebounded, driving up the prices of other oils. Palm oil prices will oscillate in the short term [28][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Trading Data - The trading data of various metal contracts on November 11, including closing prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, and open interests, are presented. For example, SHFE copper closed at 86,630 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan, with a trading volume of 156,444 lots and an open interest of 553,109 lots [30]. 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - **Copper**: On November 11, SHFE copper's main contract price was 86,630 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan from the previous day. LME copper's price was 10,840 US dollars/ton, down 34.5 US dollars. SHFE copper's warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 42,964 lots, and LME copper's inventory decreased by 25 tons to 136,250 tons [32]. - **Nickel**: SHFE nickel's main contract price was 119,380 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. LME nickel's price was 15,025 US dollars/ton, down 75 US dollars. SHFE nickel's warehouse receipts decreased by 241 lots to 32,292 lots, and LME nickel's inventory decreased by 96 tons to 253,308 tons [34]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc's main contract price was 22,675 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. LME zinc's price was 3,069 US dollars/ton, down 16.5 US dollars. SHFE zinc's warehouse receipts increased by 649 lots to 70,518 lots, and LME zinc's inventory increased by 400 tons to 35,300 tons [34]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead's main contract price was 17,440 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan. LME lead's price was 2,067 US dollars/ton, up 10.5 US dollars. SHFE lead's warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,981 lots, and LME lead's inventory increased by 24,525 tons to 226,725 tons [34]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum's continuous third - month contract price was 21,670 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan. LME aluminum's price was 2,879.5 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar. SHFE aluminum's warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 64,142 lots, and LME aluminum's inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 545,225 tons [34]. - **Alumina**: SHFE alumina's main contract price was 2,816 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan. The national average spot price of alumina was 2,869 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [34]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin's main contract price was 288,180 yuan/ton, up 1,620 yuan. LME tin's price was 36,695 US dollars/ton, up 515 US dollars. SHFE tin's warehouse receipts decreased by 112 lots to 5,582 lots, and LME tin's inventory decreased by 20 tons to 3,015 tons [36]. - **Precious Metals**: SHFE gold remained unchanged at 948.88 yuan/gram, and COMEX gold remained unchanged at 4,116.30 US dollars/ounce. SHFE silver remained unchanged at 11,880 yuan/kg, and COMEX silver remained unchanged at 50.744 US dollars/ounce [36]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: SHFE rebar's main contract price was 3,025 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan. The main contract price of iron ore futures was 763 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China increased by 380.41 million tons to 15,819.49 million tons [36][38]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The main contract price of coke futures was 1,685 yuan/ton, down 58.5 yuan. The main contract price of coking coal futures was 1,213 yuan/ton, down 52.5 yuan [38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract price of lithium carbonate futures was 8.46 yuan/ton, up 0.01 yuan. The spot price of electric - grade lithium carbonate was 8.2 yuan/ton, up 0.10 yuan [38]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract price of industrial silicon futures was 9,180 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. The average price of East China's 553 oxygen - containing silicon remained unchanged at 9,500 yuan/ton [38]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybean's main contract price was 1,126.75 US cents/bushel, down 0.75 US cents. The main contract price of soybean meal futures was 3,054 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. The main contract price of rapeseed meal futures was 2,500 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [40].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Macro**: The potential end of the US government shutdown boosts risk appetite. Domestically, policies encourage private investment, with the A - share market showing a narrow - range upward trend. The short - term market may reach new highs but needs to be cautious about subsequent adjustments. The bond market is expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern in the short term [2][3]. - **Precious Metals**: Weak US economic data strengthens the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, leading to a strong rebound in gold and silver prices. There is a possibility of continued short - term rebounds, but caution is still needed [4][5]. - **Copper**: The expected reopening of the US government boosts market sentiment. With a tight global copper mine supply pattern and continuous decline in domestic refined copper production, copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend [6][7]. - **Aluminum**: The progress of the US Senate in restarting the federal government increases market risk appetite. Although there is a slight accumulation of domestic aluminum ingot inventory, supply disturbances overseas and capital inflows support the upward trend of aluminum prices [8][9]. - **Alumina**: The market supply is relatively abundant, and the social inventory continues to increase, so alumina prices continue to be weak [10]. - **Cast Aluminum**: The cost support is strong, and the supply and demand are in a good state. It is expected to follow the upward trend of aluminum prices [11]. - **Zinc**: The possible resumption of the US government operation boosts market sentiment. Although the supply is limited due to refinery overhauls, weak consumption restricts the upward space of zinc prices. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [12]. - **Lead**: The upward breakthrough of LME lead and the increase in domestic inventory due to delivery support lead prices. It is expected to remain at a high level in the short term [13][14]. - **Tin**: The expected end of the US government shutdown is beneficial to tin prices, but the marginal weakening of the fundamentals restricts the upward space. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [15]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Entering the dry season in the southwest, production decreases. With the improvement of market sentiment, industrial silicon prices are expected to be strong in the short term [16][17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term supply increase is limited, and the inventory is being depleted, driving up prices. However, the risk of a weakening long - term fundamental needs to be noted, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [18][19]. - **Nickel**: The expected end of the US government shutdown may boost market sentiment. With strong cost support and signs of bottom - building, nickel prices may rebound [20]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Both face weak demand pressure, and prices may fluctuate at a low level [21]. - **Steel (Screw and Coil)**: Due to the weakening demand in the north, steel prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [22][23]. - **Iron Ore**: With a decrease in arrivals and shipments and weak downstream demand, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal is shrinking, and the fourth round of coke price increases has not been implemented. Affected by the weak steel market, the price increase space is limited, with short - term minor adjustments and medium - term expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [25]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The possible end of the US government shutdown may lead to the adjustment of soybean meal futures. Short - term fluctuations are expected [27][28]. - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB report shows an increase in inventory, and the high - frequency export data in early November decreases. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [29][30]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Trading Data - **Copper**: SHFE copper closed at 86,480 yuan/ton, up 0.63%; LME copper closed at 10,875 dollars/ton, up 1.68% [31]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum closed at 21,725 yuan/ton, up 0.46%; LME aluminum closed at 2,881 dollars/ton, up 0.65% [31]. - **Alumina**: SHFE alumina closed at 2,829 yuan/ton, up 1.65% [31]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc closed at 22,670 yuan/ton, down 0.22%; LME zinc closed at 3,086 dollars/ton, up 0.62% [31]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead closed at 17,505 yuan/ton, up 0.49%; LME lead closed at 2,057 dollars/ton, up 0.56% [31]. - **Nickel**: SHFE nickel closed at 119,680 yuan/ton, up 0.20%; LME nickel closed at 15,100 dollars/ton, up 0.53% [31]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin closed at 286,560 yuan/ton, up 1.08%; LME tin closed at 36,180 dollars/ton, up 1.01% [31]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold closed at 4,123.40 dollars/ounce, up 2.88%; SHFE silver closed at 11,719.00 yuan/kilogram, up 2.05%; COMEX silver closed at 50.41 dollars/ounce, up 4.52% [31]. - **Steel**: SHFE rebar closed at 3,044 yuan/ton, up 0.33%; SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3,252 yuan/ton, up 0.22% [31]. - **Iron Ore**: DCE iron ore closed at 765.0 yuan/ton, up 0.59% [31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: DCE coking coal closed at 1,265.5 yuan/ton, down 0.35%; DCE coke closed at 1,743.5 yuan/ton, down 0.74% [31]. - **Industrial Silicon**: GFEX industrial silicon closed at 9,290.0 yuan/ton, up 0.76% [31]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: CBOT soybeans closed at 1,127.5 yuan/ton, up 0.92%; DCE soybean meal closed at 3,063.0 yuan/ton, up 0.16%; CZCE rapeseed meal closed at 2,527.0 yuan/ton, down 0.47% [31]. 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - **Copper**: SHFE copper main contract price increased from 85,940 yuan/ton on November 7th to 86,480 yuan/ton on November 10th; LME copper inventory increased by 375 tons to 136,275 tons [32]. - **Nickel**: SHFE nickel main contract price increased from 119,440 yuan/ton on November 7th to 119,680 yuan/ton on November 10th; LME nickel inventory increased by 300 tons to 253,404 tons [32]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc main contract price decreased from 22,720 yuan/ton on November 7th to 22,670 yuan/ton on November 10th; LME zinc inventory remained at 34,900 tons [35]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead main contract price increased from 17,420 yuan/ton on November 7th to 17,505 yuan/ton on November 10th; LME lead inventory decreased by 1,500 tons to 202,200 tons [35]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum continuous third - month contract price increased from 21,630 yuan/ton on November 7th to 21,725 yuan/ton on November 10th; LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 547,225 tons [35]. - **Alumina**: SHFE alumina main contract price increased from 2,783 yuan/ton on November 7th to 2,829 yuan/ton on November 10th; the national average spot price of alumina decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 2,871 yuan/ton [35]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin main contract price increased from 283,510 yuan/ton on November 7th to 286,560 yuan/ton on November 10th; LME tin inventory remained at 3,035 tons [35]. - **Precious Metals**: There was no change in the prices of SHFE gold, COMEX gold, SHFE silver, and COMEX silver on November 10th compared to November 7th [35]. - **Steel**: SHFE rebar main contract price increased from 3,034 yuan/ton on November 7th to 3,044 yuan/ton on November 10th; SHFE hot - rolled coil main contract price increased from 3,245 yuan/ton on November 7th to 3,252 yuan/ton on November 10th [37]. - **Iron Ore**: DCE iron ore main contract price increased from 760.5 yuan/ton on November 7th to 765.0 yuan/ton on November 10th; the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port increased from 773 yuan/ton on November 7th to 775 yuan/ton on November 10th [37]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: DCE coking coal main contract price decreased from 1,270.0 yuan/ton on November 7th to 1,265.5 yuan/ton on November 10th; DCE coke main contract price decreased from 1,756.5 yuan/ton on November 7th to 1,743.5 yuan/ton on November 10th [37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract price of lithium carbonate increased from 8,046 yuan/ton on November 7th to 8,450 yuan/ton on November 10th [37]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract price of industrial silicon increased from 9,220 yuan/ton on November 7th to 9,290 yuan/ton on November 10th [37]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: CBOT soybean main contract price increased from 1,117.25 yuan/ton on November 7th to 1,127.5 yuan/ton on November 10th; DCE soybean meal main contract price increased from 3,058 yuan/ton on November 7th to 3,063 yuan/ton on November 10th; CZCE rapeseed meal main contract price decreased from 2,539 yuan/ton on November 7th to 2,527 yuan/ton on November 10th [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, market information was noisy, and the resumption expectation of Zhenxiawo Mine was volatile, leading to a wide - range fluctuation of lithium prices. On October 31, rumors of the mine's quick resumption made long - position holders nervous, causing lithium prices to decline with reduced positions. As CATL didn't release a resumption plan, the rumor was unconfirmed, and prices rose again with increased positions at the end of the week. Fundamentally, high - frequency supply reached a new high, but there were bottlenecks in supply growth, inventory continued to decline, and downstream demand for active stockpiling was weak, with only rigid - demand purchases [4]. - In the later stage, the expectation of fundamental improvement continues, and lithium prices will fluctuate widely driven by the resumption expectation of mines. Although there are bottlenecks in supply growth, upstream production enthusiasm is high at current prices. Some capacities are resuming production due to new mining permits, so the total supply will remain at a high level. Material factories' production in November is expected to increase month - on - month, but downstream lithium salt purchasing is cautious, indicating limited market expectations for future lithium price increases. The power terminal will remain strong driven by the policy window, but there is a risk of demand slump at the end of the month when the policy window closes. The fundamental situation will remain warm in the short term. The resumption expectation of CATL's Zhenxiawo Mine may greatly affect market sentiment, leading to wide - range fluctuations in lithium prices [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Indicator | 2025/11/7 | 2025/10/31 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Imported lithium ore (1.3% - 2.2%) | 147 | 150 | - 2.50 | - 1.67% | USD/ton | | Imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) | 904 | 918 | - 14.00 | - 1.53% | USD/ton | | Domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) | 904 | 918 | - 14 | - 1.53% | CNY/ton | | Spot exchange rate: USD to CNY | 7.122 | 7.114 | 0.01 | 0.12% | / | | Battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price | 8.05 | 8.08 | - 0.03 | - 0.35% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Lithium carbonate main contract price | 7.79 | 7.93 | - 0.14 | - 1.79% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Total lithium carbonate inventory | 121140 | 123777 | - 2637 | - 2.13% | ton | | Lithium iron phosphate price | 3.63 | 3.37 | 0.26 | 7.72% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Lithium cobalt oxide price | 36.20 | 36.20 | 0.00 | 0.00% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Ternary material price (811) | 16.45 | 16.45 | 0.00 | 0.00% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Ternary material price (622) | 14.95 | 14.95 | 0.00 | 0.00% | CNY 10,000/ton | [5] Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - **Regulation and Delivery**: As of November 7, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of GZFE was 27332 lots, and the latest matching transaction price was 77,920 CNY/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2601 was 490,900 lots [7]. - **Supply Side**: As of November 7, the weekly lithium carbonate production was 23,465 tons, an increase of 145 tons from the previous period. Although supply growth in Sichuan and Jiangxi was restricted, northern salt - lake capacities resumed production due to new mining permits, and Hunan showed signs of increased production. With more new mining permits approved, supply will remain at a high level. In September, the lithium carbonate import volume was 19,597 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3% and a year - on - year increase of 20%. The import volume from Chile was about 10,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.5%, accounting for about 55.2%. The import volume from Argentina was 6948 tons, a year - on - year increase of 242.9%, accounting for about 35.5%. The average import price from Chile was about 62,400 CNY/ton, and from Argentina was about 59,100 CNY/ton. In September, the total lithium ore import was about 711,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.8%. The import from Australia was 347,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64.1%; from Zimbabwe was about 109,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.8%; from Nigeria was about 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.4%. The import from South Africa increased significantly, reaching about 108,700 tons [7]. - **Demand Side**: - **Downstream Cathode Materials**: As of November 7, the total lithium iron phosphate production was about 96,856 tons, with an operating rate of 85.24%, an increase of 7.41 percentage points from the previous period, and inventory of 40,132 tons, a decrease of 541 tons. The total ternary material production was about 19,684 tons, with an operating rate of 51.51%, an increase of 1.31 percentage points from the previous period, and inventory of 12,190 tons, a decrease of 250 tons. In terms of prices, the ternary material price was relatively stable. The price of 5 - series ternary materials increased from 138,900 CNY/ton to 139,100 CNY/ton; the 8 - series price remained stable at 158,100 CNY/ton. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased from 37,200 CNY/ton to 37,150 CNY/ton, and the energy - storage type decreased from 35,500 CNY/ton to 35,350 CNY/ton [8]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: From October 1 - 31, the retail sales of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market were 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 10.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 23%. High - frequency data showed that new - energy vehicle sales rebounded significantly at the end of October due to the policy - driven increase in orders and concentrated deliveries. However, there is a risk of demand slump in December when the policy window closes. Most new - force car companies have announced purchase - tax subsidy policies, but only a few traditional car companies have done so, so demand resilience is at risk [9]. - **Inventory**: As of November 7, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 121,140 tons, a decrease of about 2637 tons from the previous period. Factory inventory was 22,300 tons, a decrease of about 1075 tons; market inventory was 71,508 tons, a decrease of about 1273 tons; and exchange inventory was 27332 lots, a decrease of 289 lots from the previous week [10]. This Week's Outlook The expectation of fundamental improvement continues, and lithium prices will fluctuate widely driven by the resumption expectation of mines. Although there are bottlenecks in supply growth, upstream production enthusiasm is high at current prices. Some capacities are resuming production due to new mining permits, so the total supply will remain at a high level. Material factories' production in November is expected to increase month - on - month, but downstream lithium salt purchasing is cautious, indicating limited market expectations for future lithium price increases. The power terminal will remain strong driven by the policy window, but there is a risk of demand slump at the end of the month when the policy window closes. The fundamental situation will remain warm in the short term. The resumption expectation of CATL's Zhenxiawo Mine may greatly affect market sentiment, leading to wide - range fluctuations in lithium prices [11]. Industry News - A battery - grade lithium carbonate project with an annual output of 80,000 tons in Hunan officially started on October 29. It is an upgrade of the original 40,000 - ton/year plan, and the first - phase 20,000 - ton/year project is expected to be put into production in 2026 [12]. - Haimuxing has successfully completed the full - line process for mass - producing lithium - metal solid - state batteries and has received a 400 - million - CNY equipment order for 2GWh solid - state batteries [12]. - Chuanfa Longmang and Fuling Jinguang will jointly invest in a 175,000 - ton/year high - density lithium iron phosphate project [12]. - Kodal Minerals' Bougouni lithium mine in Mali is operating normally despite the security tensions in the capital [12]. Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts showing the prices, production, and import volumes of lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and related products from 2022 - 2025 [14][16][18][21][23][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US dollar index is expected to decline, and nickel prices may rise. Macroscopically, although there are significant differences among Federal Reserve officials regarding the pace of interest rate cuts in December, the Challenger job - cut figures released in October soared, indicating a cooling labor market and increasing the expectation of a December interest rate cut. The rising expectation of an interest rate cut may cause the relatively high US dollar index to decline, which is beneficial for nickel prices. Fundamentally, the nickel ore price will remain at an absolute high due to the rainy season in the Surigao mining area in the Philippines and the impact of extreme weather, providing strong cost support. The demand for stainless steel is still at the bottom due to the drag of the real - estate market, while the new - energy market may drive nickel demand. Supply in China is expected to remain high due to the ramping - up of new production capacity. Overall, the fundamentals have no obvious improvement, but the expected decline of the US dollar index may boost nickel prices [3][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data of Last Week | Variety | Price on 2025/11/7 | Price on 2025/10/31 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 119,440 | 120,590 | - 1,150 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 15,060 | 15,226 | - 166 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 253,104 | 252,102 | 1,002 | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 32,634 | 31,388 | 1,246 | Tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 3,100 | 2,550 | 550 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 600 | 450 | 150 | Yuan/ton | | High - Nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 933 | 937 | - 4 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless Steel Inventory | 86.3 | 85.8 | 0.45 | Ten thousand tons | [4] 3.2 Market Review - **Macro - level**: The US dollar index first rose and then fell. The initial rise was due to the contraction of US dollar liquidity, while the sharp decline at the end of the week was caused by the significant increase in the Challenger job - cut figures in October, which raised the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in December. Federal Reserve officials have different views on the pace of interest rate cuts in December. The manufacturing PMI in October decreased slightly, and the composite index has been below the boom - bust line for 8 consecutive months. The employment data showed that the ADP employment increased by 42,000 in October, and the Challenger job - cut figures reached 153,000 [5]. - **Industry - level**: - **Nickel Ore**: Affected by extreme weather in the Philippines, the supply of nickel ore may tighten, and the price remains at an absolute high. The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines is 50 US dollars/wet ton, and the FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in Indonesia decreased slightly to 38.55 US dollars/wet ton [3][6]. - **Refined Nickel**: In October, the national refined nickel production was 35,900 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 17.06% and 0.84% respectively. The import volume of refined nickel in September increased significantly, mainly from Russia. The export volume also increased year - on - year. As of October 31, the spot import loss of refined nickel slightly expanded [6][7]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) decreased by about 0.7% this week. In October, the production of nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia increased. As of November 6, the upstream and downstream inventories of nickel iron increased, the integrated inventory decreased, and the port inventory decreased [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: In October, the production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly. The market expects that the production of 300 - series stainless steel in November will change little. As of November 6, the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased. The real - estate market is still at the bottom, dragging down the consumption of stainless steel, and the traditional demand market is difficult to improve significantly [9]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased slightly, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained stable. In October, the production of nickel sulfate and ternary materials increased significantly. The profit margins of some production processes of nickel sulfate improved. In the new - energy market, from October 1 - 31, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles increased year - on - year and month - on - month. However, there is a risk of a decline in demand after the expiration of the purchase - tax window period [10]. - **Inventory**: The current six - location social inventory of pure nickel increased by 9,029 tons compared with the previous period. The SHFE inventory increased by 1,246 tons, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 1,002 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges increased by 2,248 tons [11][13]. 3.3 Industry News - Zeb Nickel obtained the mining license in South Africa and plans to start nickel ore development in 2026, with an expected annual production of 20,000 tons of nickel concentrate [14]. - The side - blown melting furnace of Jinchuan Nickel - Cobalt Smelter completed maintenance and was successfully ignited, marking the end of the flash - furnace system maintenance and the start of a new production cycle [14]. - SMGA, a subsidiary of Sumber Global Energy, entered the nickel smelting business, planning to produce nickel matte and develop a converter nickel - smelting facility using the OESBF technology [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides charts on the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron price, 300 - series stainless steel price, and stainless steel inventory [16][18][20][22][24].