Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In October, after hitting record highs, the prices of gold and silver retreated. The sharp rise in precious metal prices had fully priced in many positive factors. With the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, gold and silver prices have entered a phase of adjustment, which is expected to be long - term and significant. Short - term rebounds do not change the medium - term adjustment trend [3][45]. - In the long run, the safe - haven attribute of precious metals is strengthening, and their monetary attribute is returning. The logic for the long - term rise of gold and silver remains solid [3][45]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Precious Metals Market Review - In October 2025, due to the US government shutdown and Trump's tariff threats, the prices of international gold and silver reached new highs. COMEX gold futures hit a record high of $4398 per ounce on October 20, and COMEX silver futures reached a record high of $53.76 per ounce on October 17. After the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, the prices of gold and silver declined. By the end of October, the monthly increase of COMEX gold futures was 3.24%, and that of COMEX silver futures was 3.01% [8]. - Domestic gold and silver prices followed the trend of the international market. Shanghai gold futures reached a record high of 1001.96 yuan per gram on October 21 and then declined. Shanghai silver futures were less volatile than international silver prices [9]. 2. Analysis of Factors Affecting Precious Metals Prices 2.1 Sino - US Economic and Trade Relations - Trump's tariff threats in October quickly eased. The Trump administration relaxed some tariff policies, and Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a framework agreement in mid - to - late October and a final agreement on October 30. The US will cancel a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and suspend other measures for one year, and China will make corresponding adjustments. However, the game between the two countries continues, and future tariff policies may change [14][15]. 2.2 US Government Shutdown - The US federal government shutdown has lasted for 34 days, which may be the longest in history. It has affected various fields, and limited economic data indicate a weakening US economy. For example, the ISM manufacturing PMI has contracted for eight consecutive months, and corporate layoffs have reached a new high since 2020 [16][18]. 2.3 Fed's Interest - Rate Policy - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, ending the balance - sheet reduction from December 1. After the meeting, the market's expectation of future interest - rate cuts decreased. The probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in December dropped to 67%, and there is still about two cuts expected in 2026. However, the uncertainty of next year's interest - rate cuts has increased due to factors such as tariff - inflation transmission and the change of the Fed chairman [19][20]. 3. Analysis of Market Structure and Capital Flows 3.1 Gold - Silver Ratio - In October, the COMEX gold - silver ratio fluctuated greatly, first dropping from 85 to around 80 and then rebounding to 86 before falling again. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio first rose to around 84 and then dropped to 80. It is expected that the gold - silver ratio may rise in the future [26]. 3.2 Futures - Spot and Domestic - Foreign Price Differences - In October, international gold and silver prices reached new highs, and there was a significant premium of foreign markets over domestic markets. The London silver spot shortage led to a price inversion. After the end of the London silver squeeze in late October, the price differences returned to normal [28]. 3.3 Central Banks' Gold Purchases - Since 2010, global central banks have been net buyers of gold. In 2024, they bought more than 1000 tons of gold, and in the third quarter of 2025, they accelerated their gold - buying, with a net purchase of 220 tons. China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months. In the future, central banks are expected to continue to increase their gold holdings [31][32]. 3.4 Gold and Silver ETF Holdings - In 2025, investment demand drove the growth of gold demand. In the third quarter, global gold investment demand increased by 47% year - on - year, and gold ETFs were the main driving force. However, Chinese gold ETFs had an outflow of about $5.4 billion in the third quarter. By the end of October, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR increased by 20 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - ishares decreased by 453 tons [35][36]. 3.5 Precious Metals Inventory - As of October 31, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory was about 1187 tons, a 4.69% decrease from the previous month but a 123% increase from the same period last year. The COMEX silver inventory was about 16428 tons, a 1.89% increase from the previous month and a 72% increase from the same period last year. The silver inventories of domestic exchanges decreased significantly in October, and it is expected that some domestic silver flowed to London [39][40][41]. 4. Market Outlook and Trading Strategies - In the short - to - medium term, gold and silver prices are in a phase of adjustment. In the long term, the safe - haven and monetary attributes of precious metals support their upward trend [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After major macro - events are settled, the market shifts to fundamentals. In November, both supply and demand are weak. The reduction in processing fees strengthens cost support. The decline in refined zinc output and zinc ingot exports alleviate the high - supply pressure. Although demand is marginally weakening, it still has resilience. The pattern of low inventory and strong structure of LME zinc is difficult to reverse in the short term, which will continuously support the zinc market. It is expected that the center of zinc prices will move up in November [3][70]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Zinc Market Review - In October, the main contract of SHFE zinc generally continued to oscillate in a low - level range. Macro and micro factors were intertwined. With the settlement of major macro - events at the end of the month, market sentiment improved, driving up risky assets such as non - ferrous metals. The contradiction in the fundamentals focused on the change of zinc ingot exports. The SHFE - LME ratio dropped to an extreme value, strengthening the expectation of zinc ingot exports, but the export efficiency was low, making the SHFE zinc trend stalemate. By the end of the month, the futures price closed at 22,355 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 2.43%. - LME zinc's oscillation center continued to move up. In the middle of the month, it was suppressed by the rebound of the US dollar. After a phased adjustment, it found support near the 40 - day moving average. At the end of the month, the risk of short - squeeze overseas intensified, and the LME 0 - 3 spot premium refreshed the high since 1997. LME zinc turned strong again, breaking through $3,000/ton and finally closing at $3,050/ton, with a monthly increase of 3.16% [8]. 3.2 Macro - aspect 3.2.1 US Aspect - The US economic growth rate declined. In October, the ISM manufacturing PMI index was 48.7, lower than the expected 49.5. The employment market was weak, and inflation data was lower than expected. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in October, in line with expectations, and announced to stop balance - sheet reduction on December 1st. But Powell's post - meeting statement was hawkish, and the market significantly lowered the expectation of continuous interest - rate cuts in December. - At the end of October, the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents led to a phased agreement, which eased the trade situation and was beneficial to market risk appetite. However, the US government shutdown, data delays, and the hawkish attitude towards interest - rate cuts put pressure on risky assets [11][12]. 3.2.2 Eurozone Aspect - The Eurozone economy recovered, but the sustainability of the recovery was to be observed. In October, the manufacturing PMI was 50.0. The GDP growth rate rebounded quarter - on - quarter but slowed year - on - year. The employment market was stable, and inflation declined slightly. - The ECB maintained key interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time in October and emphasized a data - dependent policy path. The economic recovery and inflation differences among countries increased the policy divergence within the ECB, and it was expected to be more cautious than the Fed [13]. 3.2.3 Domestic Aspect - The domestic economic downward pressure increased. The GDP growth rate in the third quarter slowed down, and economic data in September was further differentiated. The export and production sectors were strong, while consumption and investment were weak. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee and the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" construction opinions injected long - term confidence into the market. Although the economic recovery slowed down, the probability of achieving the annual GDP growth target was high, and mild policies were still expected [14][15]. 3.3 Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply Situation - **Global Zinc Concentrate Supply Recovery**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative output of global zinc concentrates was 8.297 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.5%. Overseas zinc mines maintained stable production, and it was expected that the overseas zinc concentrate increment would be about 550,000 tons for the whole year. In China, the zinc concentrate output in September was 314,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 10%. It was expected to continue to decline in November [23][26]. - **Adjustment of Domestic and Overseas Processing Fees and High - level Zinc Ore Imports**: In November, the average domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 650 yuan/ton. The average import ore processing fee was $105.54/dry ton, with a month - on - month increase of $18.03/dry ton. The import of zinc concentrates remained at a high level, but the growth space was limited [29][30]. 3.3.2 Refined Zinc Supply Situation - **Increased Production Expectation of Overseas Refineries and High - level Domestic Supply**: From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc output was 9.138 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.03%. Domestic production was stable, and new capacities gradually released output, while overseas refineries contributed to the main reduction. In the fourth quarter, some overseas refineries had the expectation of resuming and increasing production, but the willingness to significantly increase production was still insufficient [33][34]. - **High - level Monthly Output of Refined Zinc from January to November and Increased Expectation of Zinc Ingot Exports**: In October, the refined zinc output was 617,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.85% and a year - on - year increase of 21.45%. It was expected to decrease by 0.94% to 611,400 tons in November. The import of refined zinc was expected to have no increment, while the export window opened intermittently, and the export volume was expected to increase significantly [39][40]. 3.3.3 Refined Zinc Demand Situation - **Marginal Recovery of Terminal Consumption in Europe and the US with Uncertain Sustainability**: From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc consumption was 9.0216 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2%. Overseas consumption increased by 1.35% year - on - year, and domestic consumption increased by 2.78% year - on - year. The supply surplus in the global zinc market expanded [47]. - **Weak Performance of Initial - stage Enterprises'开工率 and Resilience of Galvanized Exports**: In October, the开工率 of initial - stage galvanizing and zinc oxide enterprises was at a relatively low level, and that of die - casting alloy enterprises was at a neutral level. It was expected to decline in November. The export of galvanized sheets in September was 1.2262 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.73% and a year - on - year increase of 2.27%. It was expected to decline in October [52][53][54]. - **Weak Traditional Consumption and Differentiated Emerging Consumption**: In traditional consumption, the infrastructure investment growth rate declined, and the real estate sector continued to be weak. In the automotive sector, production and sales were good. In the white - goods sector, the air - conditioner market faced challenges, and the production plan for November was adjusted downward. In the emerging consumption sector, the decline in the growth rate of photovoltaic installed capacity narrowed, and the wind power sector was expected to have positive growth in the fourth quarter [55][61][62]. 3.3.4 Differentiated Domestic and Overseas Inventories - The LME inventory accelerated to decline since mid - July. In October, the LME 0 - 3 spot premium soared, and the inventory decreased to 35,300 tons by the end of the month. It was expected to stabilize and slightly rebound but remain at a low level. - The domestic social zinc ingot inventory was at a high level in October, reaching 161,500 tons. It was expected to remain high, but if the zinc ingot export efficiency improved, the inventory pressure might be relieved [65]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - Macro - aspect: The Sino - US phased agreement and the Fed's October interest - rate cut were in line with expectations, but the uncertainty of the December interest - rate cut increased. The domestic economic recovery slowed down, and mild policies were expected. The Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five - Year Plan" provided long - term confidence. - Supply - side: Northern mines entered the seasonal production off - season, and the processing fees decreased, strengthening cost support. The refined zinc supply was expected to decrease slightly, and the supply - side pressure was marginally relieved. - Demand - side: Terminal consumption was flat, with pressure on infrastructure and real estate. The automotive sector continued to improve, and the consumption in the photovoltaic and wind - power fields was strong. In November, the consumption entered the off - season transition period, and the initial - stage enterprises'开工率 was expected to decline moderately. - Overall: In November, both supply and demand were weak. The reduction in processing fees and zinc ingot exports alleviated the supply pressure, and the demand had resilience. The low - inventory and strong - structure pattern of LME zinc would support the zinc market, and the zinc price center was expected to move up [70].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251104 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：美国制造业 PMI 走弱，国内股市低开高走 海外方面，美国制造业再度走弱，通胀压力缓解，10 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 降至 48.7，连 续八个月萎缩。新订单与生产疲软，就业承压，物价指数创年内新低；欧元区复苏停滞，核 心经济体仍收缩，10 月制造业 PMI 持平 50.0，新订单与出口持续下滑，企业加速裁员，德 法 PMI 仍低于荣枯线，通胀放缓但复苏乏力。政府停摆致数据缺失，多位美联储官员就经 济风险各执一词：理事库克称 12 月会议"可能"降息但未定；米兰认为政策过紧、衰退风 险升；古尔斯比称通胀仍高不宜急降；戴利则支持上次降息，主张观望数据再议。隔夜美股 涨跌不一，美元指数突破 100 关口在即，10Y 美债利率进一步回升至 4.10%，金价在 4000 美元上下震荡，铜价收跌，油价震荡。 国内方面，10 月 Rating Dog 中国制造业 PMI 跌至 50.6，制造业扩张态势有所放缓，与 官方 PMI 相一致。A 股周一低开高走 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract fluctuated weakly last week. The results of the Sino - US high - level meeting were in line with market expectations. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in October, but Powell's hawkish stance reduced the expectation of a December rate cut, and the rising US dollar was negative for zinc prices. China's October PMI declined month - on - month, and mild stimulus policies are expected. - Fundamentally, domestic zinc concentrate processing fees continued to fall. In November, zinc smelting output is expected to increase by thousands of tons, with supply remaining high but the growth slowing. On the demand side, the demand for different zinc products varied. Overseas, the LME's new rules on positions may reduce the support for liquidity. - Overall, market risk appetite has cooled. China maintains high supply and weak demand, and social inventories are high, but zinc exports can relieve the pressure. The adjustment of LME's position system will weaken the squeeze - out pressure, and the zinc price will fluctuate weakly in the short term [3][9][10]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Oct 24 | Oct 31 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22,355 | 22,355 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 3019.5 | 3050 | 30.5 | US dollars/ton | | SHFE - LME Ratio | 7.40 | 7.33 | - 0.07 | | | SHFE Inventory | 109168 | 103416 | - 5752 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 37,600 | 35,300 | - 2300 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 16.22 | 16.15 | - 0.07 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | - 60 | - 40 | 20 | Yuan/ton | [4] 3.2 Market Review - Shanghai Zinc's main contract ZN2512 first rose and then fell last week. It was strong in the early part of the week due to positive macro - expectations and weakened later. The weekly change was flat, and the price moved up on Friday night. - LME Zinc's oscillation center moved up. Despite the rising US dollar, the strong overseas structure supported the price, with a weekly increase of 1.01%. - In the spot market, by October 31, prices and premiums varied in different regions. The supply was limited at the end of the month, and the spot premium increased slightly. Transactions were mainly between traders [5][6]. 3.3 Industry News - By October 31, domestic zinc concentrate processing fees decreased by 400 yuan/metal ton, and imported ore processing fees decreased by 7.71 US dollars/dry ton. - In November, domestic zinc smelting output is expected to increase by thousands of tons. - The LME plans to introduce permanent rules to limit large near - month positions. - An explosion at Australia's Endeavor mine caused two deaths, and the company suspended operations. - A survey of 30 analysts shows that the average LME spot zinc price in 2026 is expected to be 2838 US dollars/ton, up 22% from the previous estimate. The expected supply surplus in 2025 is 80,000 tons, and in 2026 it is 239,000 tons [11][12][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The alumina market is in a state of weak reality versus production cut expectations. The price has stabilized, but a rebound remains weak without large - scale production cuts. The support level for the next month is expected to be around 2750 - 2800 yuan/ton [3][67]. - The electrolytic aluminum market has relatively low supply pressure, with overseas supply disruptions and an increasing domestic aluminum - water ratio. Consumption shows resilience, and with the copper - aluminum ratio repair logic, the aluminum price is expected to be positive. After a short - term adjustment, the aluminum price is likely to remain bullish [3][68][70]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - In October, the main alumina futures contract was still weak, with the price fluctuating narrowly between 2800 - 2880 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased [9]. - In October, the Shanghai aluminum futures contract oscillated upwards, reaching a new high of 21425 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum was relatively stronger, reaching 2917 dollars/ton at one point. The Shanghai - LME aluminum ratio decreased from 7.63 to 7.32, and the import loss expanded to about 2500 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis Overseas - The Sino - US tariff negotiation in October had positive results. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in October and ended quantitative tightening in December. The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut decreased from over 90% to less than 70% [14]. - In the US, the September CPI rose seasonally, and the October Markit composite PMI rebounded. In the eurozone, the October composite PMI also rebounded, mainly due to the strong performance of the German service industry [15][16]. Domestic - In the first three quarters, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year - on - year, and the industrial added value increased by 6.2%. In September, the CPI and PPI improved, and the new social financing in September was 3.53 trillion yuan [17][19]. - From January to September, China's exports increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 1.1%. The trade surplus was 8750.8 billion dollars. In September, exports and imports both increased significantly [18]. 3. Alumina Market Analysis Bauxite - In October, the supply of domestic bauxite was tight, and the price was stagnant. From January to September, China imported 157.637 million tons of bauxite. In September, the import volume was about 15.88 million tons [22]. - The price of domestic bauxite may continue to decline slightly due to the weak profit of downstream alumina and the seasonal decrease in the arrival of imported bauxite [23]. Alumina Supply - In September, China's alumina production was 7.623 million tons, and it is estimated to be about 7.85 million tons in October. In the long run, some high - cost enterprises may face production cuts [24]. - In September, the alumina import volume was 59,980 tons, and the export volume was 246,420 tons. Since mid - September, the import window has been open, which is expected to break the net export pattern [26]. Alumina Inventory and Spot - By the end of October, the alumina futures exchange inventory was 223,000 tons, an increase of 53,000 tons from the end of last month. The spot premium remained high and volatile [27]. Alumina Cost and Profit - In September, the average fully - cost of the Chinese alumina industry was 2932.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.08 yuan/ton from August, mainly due to the increase in raw material prices [28]. Alumina Outlook - The alumina market is still in a state of weak reality versus production cut expectations. The price has stabilized, but the rebound is weak without large - scale production cuts. The support level for the next month is expected to be around 2750 - 2800 yuan/ton [29][67]. 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - In September, China's primary aluminum production was 3.6488 million tons, and it is estimated to be about 3.772 million tons in October. The aluminum - water ratio is expected to rise to 77.3% in October [36]. - In September, the global (ex - China) electrolytic aluminum production was 2.436 million tons. In October, the production of Century Aluminum's Icelandic smelter decreased, and the overseas production is expected to continue to decline [36][39]. - From January to September, China's cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.9624 million tons, and the cumulative exports were about 182,300 tons. The cumulative net imports were 1.78 million tons [39]. Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory - By the end of October, the aluminum ingot inventory was 618,000 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons from the end of last month. The aluminum rod inventory was 146,000 tons, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots + aluminum rods was 772,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons [40]. - The SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory warrant was 66,000 tons, an increase of 7000 tons from last month, and the LME inventory was 469,000 tons, a decrease of 44,000 tons [40]. Electrolytic Aluminum Spot - In October, the spot discount was close to par to a slight premium during the mid - month delivery, and was around a discount of 50 yuan/ton at the beginning and end of the month. The LME 0 - 3 month contract remained in a slight premium state [41]. Electrolytic Aluminum Cost and Profit - In October, the theoretical average fully - cost of the Chinese electrolytic aluminum industry was 15,793.93 yuan/ton, a decrease of 334.24 yuan/ton from last month. The monthly theoretical profit was 5188.93 yuan/ton, an increase of 546.18 yuan/ton from last month [42]. 5. Consumption Analysis Aluminum Processing - In October, the performance of aluminum processing was lackluster during the peak season. In November, the demand in the construction and some industrial fields will continue to weaken, but the demand in the new energy vehicle and power sectors will remain relatively stable [59]. Domestic Terminal Consumption - In the real estate sector, from January to September, the cumulative new construction area decreased by 18.9% year - on - year, the cumulative completion area decreased by 15.3%, and the cumulative construction area decreased by 9.4% [60]. - In the new energy vehicle sector, in September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 23.7% and 24.6% [61]. - In the power sector, from January to September, the State Grid completed fixed - asset investment of over 420 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%. It is expected that the annual investment will exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time [61]. - In the photovoltaic sector, in September, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 9.7GW, a month - on - month increase of 31.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 63.94%. From January to September, the newly - added installed capacity was 240.31GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.37% [62]. Aluminum Exports - In September, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 521,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%. From January to August, the cumulative exports were 4.516 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1% [64]. 6. Market Outlook - Macroscopically, the Fed's policy and the Sino - US trade negotiation will affect the market. The domestic demand - side policy is worth looking forward to [67]. - In the alumina market, the supply pressure is still large, but the production cut expectation is increasing. The price has stabilized, but the rebound is weak without large - scale production cuts [67]. - In the electrolytic aluminum market, the supply pressure is small, and the consumption has resilience. With the copper - aluminum ratio repair logic, the aluminum price is expected to be positive. After a short - term adjustment, the aluminum price is likely to remain bullish [68][70].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures adjusted from a high level. The macro - positive news has landed, and the market risk appetite has cooled. The steady resumption of production by smelters combined with the centralized production cuts of battery enterprises has weakened the supply - demand support. However, as more smelters resume production, the demand for raw materials increases, strengthening the cost support. Also, the narrowing of the import profit of lead ingots after the decline of the Shanghai - London ratio weakens the import impact, limiting the adjustment space of futures prices. It is expected that the lead price will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [2][8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - From October 24th to October 31st, the SHFE lead price dropped from 17,595 yuan/ton to 17,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 205 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 2,016.5 dollars/ton to 2,025 dollars/ton, an increase of 8.5 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.73 to 8.59, a decrease of 0.14; the SHFE inventory decreased from 36,333 tons to 35,999 tons, a decrease of 334 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 235,375 tons to 220,300 tons, a decrease of 15,075 tons; the social inventory increased from 35,900 tons to 39,400 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons; the spot premium increased from - 215 yuan/ton to - 210 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton [5] Market Review - Last week, the main PB2512 contract price of Shanghai lead futures adjusted from a high level, with a weekly decline of 1.17%, and fluctuated narrowly at night on Friday. The continuous decline of LME inventory supported the upward movement of the LME lead price center of gravity, but the weakening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December and the rebound of the US dollar in the second half of the week suppressed the upward trend of LME lead, with a weekly increase of 0.42%. In the spot market, downstream enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm was average at the end of the month, and the transaction in the scattered order market did not improve significantly [6] Industry News - As of the week ending October 31st, the domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported ore processing fee remained flat at - 125 dollars/dry ton. An East - China large - scale secondary lead smelter started the furnace - drying operation on Monday and planned to start formal production this weekend, which is expected to contribute over 10,000 tons of secondary refined lead output in November. A survey of 30 industry analysts showed that the average spot lead price on LME in 2025 was 1,973 dollars/ton, and it is expected to be 2,050 dollars/ton in 2026. A large - scale lead - acid battery enterprise in Central China planned to cut or stop production from October 28th to November 2nd. A large - scale secondary lead smelter in North China stopped production for maintenance, affecting the refined lead output of 300 - 400 tons per day [9] Related Charts - The content provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventory, lead ingot premium, primary and secondary lead price difference, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead output, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][11][12][13][14][15][17][18][19][20][21][22][24][25][27][29][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Last week, copper prices retreated from high levels. Although China and the US reached important consensus on economic and trade issues, the cautious stance of the Fed Chairman and the ECB's decision to pause rate cuts made the continuation of global central bank easing uncertain, dampening capital market sentiment. However, the rapid development of emerging industries globally provides broad prospects for copper demand, so copper prices still have upward potential in the medium term. Fundamentally, overseas mines are slow to resume production, domestic refined copper output is decreasing monthly, social inventories in non-US regions are low, and the near-term futures contract has returned to par. [2][7][9] - Overall, the important economic and trade consensus between China and the US has boosted market risk appetite, but the hawkish remarks of Fed Chairman Powell after fulfilling the rate cut expectation have made the market more cautious. Fortunately, the rapid development of emerging markets globally provides broad space for copper consumption. Fundamentally, the slow resumption of overseas mines, decreasing domestic refined copper output, and low social inventories in non-US regions mean traditional industries can't provide effective demand increments, but emerging industries are growing rapidly. The strong fundamental expectations are driving the center of copper prices to move up continuously. It is expected that copper prices will return to an upward trend after a short-term adjustment. [2][7][9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Price Changes**: From October 24 to October 31, LME copper dropped from $10,947.00 to $10,891.50 per ton, a decrease of $55.50 or -0.51%; COMEX copper fell from 511.75 to 511.4 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.35 cents or -0.07%; SHFE copper declined from 87,720 to 87,010 yuan per ton, a decrease of 710 yuan or -0.81%; international copper decreased from 78,160 to 77,460 yuan per ton, a decrease of 700 yuan or -0.90%. The Shanghai-London ratio dropped from 8.01 to 7.99, and the LME spot premium decreased from -$25.97 to -$14.44 per ton, a change of $11.53 or -44.40%. The Shanghai spot premium decreased from 10 to 0 yuan per ton. [3] - **Inventory Changes**: As of October 31, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area increased to 713,107 tons, a rise of 13,822 tons or 1.98% from October 24. Among them, LME copper inventory decreased by 1,725 tons (-1.27%), COMEX inventory increased by 7,699 short tons (2.21%), SHFE inventory increased by 11,348 tons (10.83%), and Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 3,500 tons (-3.18%). [6][7] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: China and the US reached important economic and trade consensus, with the US canceling a 10% fentanyl tariff on Chinese goods, continuing to suspend a 24% reciprocal tariff for one year, and pausing the implementation of a 50% export control penetration rule for one year. China will suspend relevant export control measures and study specific plans, and the US will pause a 301 investigation on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. The ECB maintained its three major interest rates unchanged for the third time, believing that the current policy is in a good position and can tolerate a temporary small deviation of inflation from the target. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the second consecutive time and will stop the QT program in December, but the Fed Chairman said a December rate cut is not certain. The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, indicating that this round of rate cuts may be nearing an end. In China, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in September increased by 21.4% year - on - year, and from January to September, it increased by 3.2% year - on - year, the highest cumulative growth rate since August last year. [7][8] - **Supply - demand aspect**: In Indonesia, the Grasberg mine continues to be shut down and is expected to return to normal levels by 2027. The Panama government emphasizes the state - owned nature of Cobre Panama, and the underground pumping work at Kamoa is in progress, with an expected production reduction of 10 - 15 tons this year. On the refined copper side, shortages of ore and scrap copper have led to insufficient raw materials for smelting, and fourth - quarter production is expected to decline quarter - on - quarter. In terms of demand, power grid investment bidding has slowed down, the copper cable production rate is lower than in previous years, the domestic air - conditioning market has reached a bottleneck, and the marginal drag of real estate on copper consumption has slowed down. Traditional industries can't provide effective demand increments during the peak season, but emerging industries such as new - energy vehicles and AI - driven data centers have broad prospects for copper consumption. The domestic social inventory is low, and the fundamental situation remains in a tight balance, with the near - term futures spread returning to near par. [9] 3. Industry News - **Anglo American's Collahuasi Copper Mine**: The Collahuasi copper mine in Chile is facing a decline in ore grade, and its production will be restricted next year. It is expected to return to normal output levels in 2027, when the annual output is expected to reach about 600,000 tons. The main reasons for the output recovery are the mining of higher - grade ore areas in the open - pit mine and the full operation of a new seawater desalination plant next year. The potential lower - than - expected production next year will intensify the global copper supply shortage. After the merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources, the high - grade ore from Collahuasi will supply Teck Resources' nearby Quebrada Blanca copper mine, with an expected annual increase of 175,000 tons of copper production and an annual profit increase of about $1.4 billion. [10] - **Glencore's Copper Production**: In the third quarter of 2025, Glencore's copper production was 239,600 tons, a 36.1% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 1% decrease year - on - year. The quarter - on - quarter increase was mainly due to the improvement of ore grades at Katanga, Antapaccay, and Antamina. From January to September 2025, the cumulative copper production was 583,500 tons, a 17% decrease year - on - year, mainly due to the decline in ore grade and recovery rate affected by the planned mining sequence. Glencore has lowered its 2025 copper production guidance from 850,000 - 890,000 tons to 850,000 - 875,000 tons, with an expected fourth - quarter production of 266,000 - 291,000 tons. Antamina's equity copper production in the third quarter of 2025 was 34,500 tons, a 7% decrease year - on - year and a 52% increase quarter - on - quarter. The annual production guidance for 2025 is 126,000 - 129,000 tons, with an expected fourth - quarter production of 36,000 - 39,000 tons. The copper ore grade is expected to increase to 0.92% in the fourth quarter of 2025 from 0.81% as of September. [11][12] 4. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of copper prices, inventories, premiums, spreads, and ratios, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME and COMEX copper inventories and注销仓单 ratios, Shanghai non - ferrous copper spot premium trends, and copper import profit and loss trends, etc. All data sources are iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures. [13][16][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, industrial silicon prices fluctuated upwards. The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes accelerating the speed and comprehensiveness of green transformation, and the polysilicon industry conference discussed high-quality development in the photovoltaic industry next year, leading to optimistic market expectations for new polysilicon platforms. Supply side saw a marginal contraction as Xinjiang maintained over 80% capacity utilization, while Yunnan dropped to 54% due to the approaching dry season, and Sichuan's output also declined. On the demand side, the polysilicon industry conference boosted market optimism, but silicon wafer prices slightly decreased due to reduced overseas battery demand, and photovoltaic cells continued to weaken. Component demand improved, and inventory pressure eased. Industrial silicon social inventory decreased slightly to 55.8 million tons, and spot prices stabilized and rebounded with the upward fluctuation of futures contracts. Overall, prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [2][6][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From October 24th to October 31st, the industrial silicon主力 contract rose from 8,920 yuan/ton to 9,100 yuan/ton, a 2.02% increase; the oxygenated 553 spot rose 1.07% to 9,450 yuan/ton; the non-oxygenated 553 and 421 and 3303 spot prices remained unchanged; the organic silicon DMC spot fell 0.90% to 11,000 yuan/ton; the polysilicon dense material spot remained unchanged at 52 yuan/ton; and the industrial silicon social inventory decreased 0.18% to 55.8 million tons [4]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro aspect**: In September, China's above-scale industrial enterprise profits increased 21.4% year-on-year, and from January - September, they increased 3.2% year-on-year, the highest cumulative growth rate since August last year. Profits in industries such as electricity, non-ferrous metals, and agriculture increased, while those in textiles and petroleum extraction decreased [7]. - **Supply and demand aspect**: As of October 30th, the weekly industrial silicon output was 98,700 tons, a 0.18% week-on-week and 3.34% year-on-year increase. The number of open furnaces in the three major production areas decreased to 312, with an overall capacity utilization rate of 39.2%. Xinjiang's open furnace number remained at 151, Yunnan decreased by 6 to 40, Sichuan and Chongqing decreased by 5 to 47, and Inner Mongolia increased by 4 to 32. On the demand side, the polysilicon industry conference boosted optimism, but silicon wafer prices declined, photovoltaic cells weakened, and component demand improved. The final list of photovoltaic specifications was released, with 129 enterprises passing verification, expected to lead the industry into a new supply - demand balance cycle [8]. - **Inventory aspect**: As of October 31st, the national industrial silicon social inventory decreased to 55.8 million tons, a 0.1 million - ton week-on-week decrease. High inventory was due to slowed terminal consumption. The exchange's registered warehouse receipts decreased to 47,253 lots, equivalent to 236,000 tons. After the exchange's new delivery standard, 5 - series warehouse receipts meeting the standard were actively registered, and the warehouse receipt inventory remained around 50,000 tons due to expected production cuts in the photovoltaic industry [9]. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the list of 129 enterprises meeting the photovoltaic manufacturing industry standards, which is a dynamic management of the previous twelve batches [11]. - TCL Zhonghuan, a leading photovoltaic silicon wafer enterprise, saw a significant reduction in losses in Q3 this year compared to the same period last year, benefiting from the rebound in the upstream photovoltaic industry chain prices. In Q3, it achieved an operating income of 8.174 billion yuan, a 28.34% year-on-year increase, and a net loss of 1.534 billion yuan, a significant reduction from last year's 2.998 billion yuan loss. The photovoltaic industry chain upstream prices rose in Q3, and silicon wafer prices also increased. Although the short - term silicon wafer market is expected to be weak, the medium - to - long - term outlook is not pessimistic [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Demand side: Last week, there was a significant increase in steel mill maintenance, leading to a substantial adjustment in molten iron production. As the off - season approaches, molten iron production will be in a downward cycle. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.75%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points from the previous week and 0.69 percentage points from the same period last year. The daily average molten iron production was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons from the previous week and an increase of 8,900 tons from the same period last year [1][4][5]. - Supply side: Last week, overseas shipments increased week - on - week, while arrivals decreased. Shipments were at a high level, and the supply remained strong. The total global iron ore shipments were 3.3884 million tons, an increase of 54,800 tons week - on - week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 152.7293 million tons, an increase of 1.6344 million tons week - on - week, and the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3122 million tons, an increase of 91,500 tons [1][5]. - Overall: In the short term, the impact of the macro - environment has weakened, and demand has marginally declined. It is expected that iron ore will show a volatile and pressured trend [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Percentage (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3046 | 9 | 0.30 | 5713284 | 2644571 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3250 | 46 | 1.44 | 2311059 | 1501678 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 771.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 1404210 | 561141 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1248.5 | 69.5 | 5.89 | 5960825 | 939022 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1757.5 | 81.5 | 4.86 | 116416 | 49180 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Futures market: Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated upwards. The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and an important consensus was reached on Sino - US tariffs. Supported by a warm macro - atmosphere, the futures market was strong. - Spot market: The price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 783 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of Super Special powder was 705 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 78 yuan/ton [4]. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)". It is proposed that in key areas, the total steel production capacity should not be increased, and the transfer of steel production capacity from non - key areas to key areas and between different key areas is prohibited. The capacity replacement ratio for iron - making and steel - making in each province (region, municipality) should not be less than 1.5:1. - On October 28, the suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development were released, aiming to optimize and upgrade traditional industries. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction starting from December 1. - The Ministry of Commerce introduced the consensus on the results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. The US will suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule for export controls and the Section 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. China will adjust or suspend relevant counter - measures accordingly [9]. Relevant Charts The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore futures and spot prices, basis, steel mill profits, steel production, inventory, and other aspects, with data sources from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [7][10][12] etc.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 215 to close at 4,205 ringgit/ton, a decline of 4.86%; the palm oil 01 contract fell 358 to close at 8,764 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.92%; the soybean oil 01 contract fell 66 to close at 8,128 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.81%; the rapeseed oil 01 contract fell 339 to close at 9,422 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.47%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 1.67 to close at 48.62 cents/pound, a decline of 3.32%; the ICE rapeseed active contract rose 5.5 to close at 637.9 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 0.87% [4]. - Palm oil broke through support and continued to weaken. High - frequency data showed that the export demand for Malaysian palm oil slowed down in October while production maintained an upward trend. It is expected that the ending inventory at the end of October will accumulate more than expected, supply will become looser, and origin quotes will be lowered. In addition, Indonesia's production data was impressive, and its 2025 production is expected to maintain a large increase. Indonesia's B50 policy has been opposed by the mining industry, and due to factors such as funding constraints, the implementation time of the biodiesel policy may be postponed [4]. - Macroscopically, the Fed cut interest rates as expected in October, but there were large differences regarding a December rate cut, and the probability of a rate cut declined significantly. The US dollar index fluctuated upwards, and oil prices fluctuated. Fundamentally, the expectation of inventory accumulation for Malaysian palm oil at the end of October has increased. Attention should be paid to the upcoming MPOB report. Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 has been impressive, supply is becoming looser, and the implementation time of the biodiesel policy is still uncertain. It is expected that palm oil will fluctuate weakly in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Various contract price changes from October 24 to October 31 are presented. For example, the CBOT soybean oil main contract fell from 50.29 to 48.62 cents/pound, a decline of 3.32%; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell from 4,420 to 4,205 ringgit/ton, a decline of 4.86%; the DCE palm oil contract fell from 9,122 to 8,764 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.92%, etc. There are also data on spot prices and price differences between various oils [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Production and export data: From October 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil's single - yield, oil extraction rate, and production increased compared to the same period last month. Different institutions' data on Malaysian palm oil exports in October show different growth rates. Indonesia's 2025 palm oil production is expected to increase by about 10% to 56 - 57 million tons, and exports are expected to be 30 - 31 million tons. In 2026, production is expected to increase by another 5%. In August, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased slightly [8][9]. - Inventory data: As of the week of October 24, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country increased compared to last week and the same period last year. The weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil in key regions across the country as of the week of October 31, 2025, increased compared to the previous week [10]. Industry News - The US will reduce tariffs on 1,711 Malaysian export products, including palm oil, to below 19%, which is expected to enhance the price competitiveness of Malaysian products in the US market [11]. - As of now in this fiscal year, India's palm oil planting area has reached 52,113 hectares, and the total planting area under the "National Mission on Edible Oils - Oil Palm" since its launch in August 2021 has reached 241,000 hectares [11]. - Malaysia's Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities aims to strengthen the downstream development of Sabah's palm oil industry, especially in biodiesel production. Sabah is Malaysia's largest crude palm oil - producing region, accounting for 22.1% of the country's total crude palm oil production in 2024 [12]. Relevant Charts - There are multiple charts showing the trends of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil futures and spot prices, price differences, inventory, and production and export data of Malaysia and Indonesia [14][17][19] etc.