铅周报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 供需面改善 铅价反弹修复 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 李婷 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价企稳反弹。宏观面看，市场对降息 路径偏鸽押注升温，美元弱势运行，铜锡等有色品种 走强，带动铅价跟涨。 要点 基本面看，12 月内外铅精矿加工费持续回落，铅矿供 需紧张的格局短时难扭转。废旧电瓶价格小幅调整， 华北回收商收货遇阻，低价惜售的情况仍存，将限制 价格下调幅度，成本端支撑托底铅价。冶炼端看，部 分炼厂复产，11 月电解铅产量环比小幅回升，12 月江 西、云南及湖南等地炼厂检修增多，且多为交割品牌， 产量有望 ...

锌周报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 宏观推波，供应助力 锌价强劲反弹 核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价反弹。宏观面，近期公布的美国就业及通 胀数据均支持美联储降息，且特朗普发表下任美联储主席人 选的言论，也利好未来降息路径，美元弱势运行，利好风险 资产价格走势。国内临近中央政治局会议，政策预期回升， 市场情绪偏好，铜锡价格不断刷新高点，锌价跟随反弹。基 本面看，供应端供应端收缩态势突出，12 月国内外锌矿加 工费加速下行，其中国产矿加工费均值回落至 2000 元/金属 吨，基本回归年初水平，炼厂利润空间持续压缩，行业减停 产现象增多。SMM 数据显示，11 月国内精炼锌产量不及预期， 回落至 60 万吨下方，预计 12 月产量环比减少 2.4 万吨， 前期高供应压力得到明显缓解。同时，国内外现货升水均走 强，也助力期价偏强运行。不过，消费端仍处于传统淡季， 需求侧未能形成有效配合，初端企业开工率维持不 ...

李婷 2025 年 12 月 8 日 关注马棕油累库情况 棕榈油区间震荡 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 棕榈油周报 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨38收于4152林吉特/吨，涨幅 0.92%；棕榈油01合约涨144收于8770元/吨，涨幅 1.67%；豆油01合约涨22收于8266元/吨，涨幅0.27%； 菜油01合约跌139收于9618元/吨，跌幅1.42%；CBOT豆 油主连跌0.38收于51.7美分/磅，跌幅0.73%；ICE油菜 籽活跃合约跌33.5收于618.2加元/吨，跌幅5.14%。 ⚫ 随着东南亚洪灾题材降温，盘面上涨动能减弱；但 ...

豆粕周报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 等待 USDA 报告指引 连粕延续震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 豆粕周报 一、市场数据 | 合约 | 12 月 5 日 | 11 月 28 日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT 大豆 | 1105.25 | 1137.25 | -32.00 | -2.81% | 美分/蒲式耳 | | CNF 进口价：巴西 | 481.00 | 500.00 | -19.00 | -3.80% | 美元/吨 | | ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Last week, industrial silicon prices fluctuated downward. The main reasons were that the polysilicon production in November fell short of expectations, and the slowdown in photovoltaic installation at the end of the year led to a significant decline in silicon wafer production scheduling, dragging down the demand for upstream silicon materials. The overall sentiment in the industrial products market cooled. From the supply side, the operating rate in Xinjiang remained around 85%, the output in the southwest region decreased significantly during the dry season, and there was little expectation of increased production in Gansu and Inner Mongolia, resulting in a slight contraction in supply. From the demand side, the market - supporting effect of leading polysilicon enterprises was poor, the futures price dropped significantly last week, and the production scheduling in December was expected to continue to decline. The price of silicon wafers fell continuously last week, and battery enterprises effectively managed their safety inventory, forcing silicon enterprises to cut prices and dump products. The production scheduling of silicon wafers in December decreased by more than 15%. The decline of battery cells slowed down last week, and leading integrated enterprises increased production cuts in December, with market decisions being divided and the demand side tightening faster. The finished - product inventory of component enterprises was relatively stable, but the actual demand for concentrated installation decreased at the end of the year, and the number of provincial and municipal photovoltaic projects won by domestic enterprises decreased. The total procurement capacity won last week was 1232.8MW, a week - on - week decrease of 345.7MW. The social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 558,000 tons last week, and the spot market of industrial silicon shifted downward due to the decline in futures prices [2][5][9]. - Overall, the official manufacturing PMI in November was still in the contraction range, the polysilicon production fell short of expectations, and the production scheduling of the photovoltaic mid - and downstream in December decreased significantly. The overall sentiment in the industrial products market cooled. Technically, the main contract fell below the 9000 level and continued to decline weakly. It is expected that the futures price of industrial silicon will enter a weak and volatile state [2][9]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The price of the industrial silicon main contract on December 5 was 8805 yuan/ton, a decrease of 325 yuan/ton or 3.56% from November 28. The price of oxygen - passing 553 spot was 9450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton or 1.05%. The price of non - oxygen - passing 553 spot remained unchanged at 9350 yuan/ton. The price of 421 spot remained unchanged at 9800 yuan/ton. The price of 3303 spot remained unchanged at 10450 yuan/ton. The price of organic silicon DMC spot was 13600 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton or 3.03%. The price of polysilicon dense material spot remained unchanged at 52 yuan/ton. The social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 558,000 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons or 1.45% [3]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: China's official manufacturing PMI in November rose to 49.2, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The production index was 50, indicating that manufacturing production was generally stable. The new order index was 49.2, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%, indicating that the market demand in the manufacturing industry was generally stable. The raw material inventory index was 47.3, remaining unchanged month - on - month, indicating a continuous decrease in the inventory of major raw materials. The employment index was 48.4, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%, indicating a slight improvement in the employment sentiment of manufacturing enterprises. The supplier delivery index was 50.1, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%, indicating a slight acceleration in the supplier delivery time [6]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: As of December 28, the weekly output of industrial silicon decreased to 81,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.7% and a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. The number of open furnaces in the three major industrial silicon production areas dropped significantly to 238, and the overall furnace - opening rate dropped to 29.9%. Among them, the number of open furnaces in Xinjiang decreased to 140, remaining unchanged week - on - week; in Yunnan, it decreased by 5 to 14; in Sichuan and Chongqing, it decreased by 13 to 8; in Inner Mongolia, it decreased by 1 to 32. The demand side showed that the market - supporting effect of leading polysilicon enterprises was poor, the futures price dropped significantly last week, and the production scheduling in December was expected to continue to decline. The price of silicon wafers fell continuously last week, and the production scheduling of silicon wafers in December decreased by more than 15%. The decline of battery cells slowed down last week, and leading integrated enterprises increased production cuts in December. The finished - product inventory of component enterprises was relatively stable, but the actual demand for concentrated installation decreased at the end of the year, and the number of provincial and municipal photovoltaic projects won by domestic enterprises decreased [5][7][9]. - **Inventory aspect**: As of December 5, the national social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 558,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8000 tons. The terminal consumption slowed down, and the registered warehouse receipt volume of the exchange continued to increase. As of December 5, the warehouse receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose to 7288 lots, totaling 36,400 tons. It is expected that the warehouse receipt inventory will continue to increase under the background of weakening marginal demand at the end of the year [8]. Industry News - On December 5, Daquan Energy held a performance briefing for the third quarter. The company's directors, board secretary Sun Yicheng, and CFO and deputy general manager Shi Wei attended the meeting and responded to core issues such as the trend of silicon material prices, the impact of industry policies, the company's operating performance, and technological layout. The company's N - type dense material in polysilicon products accounted for more than 70%, and there was no specific construction plan for granular silicon technology at present [10]. - The EU is considering setting a "Made in Europe" target of up to 70% for specific goods including automobiles. The policy may force EU enterprises to purchase more expensive European components, bringing them an additional cost of more than 10 billion euros per year. The proposal is expected to be submitted on December 10. Germany and other countries have indicated that they will support the "Buy European" rule, which may affect the automotive industry and clean - technology fields such as solar panels [11]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including industrial silicon production, export volume, social inventory, Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt inventory, main production area weekly output, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and various spot prices [13][14][16][17][18].

氧化铝周报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 减产迟迟未能兑现 氧化铝空头氛围浓 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 矿端，近期国内外矿端保持平静，国内矿石维持偏 紧价格持稳。进口矿近期成交活跃度不高，主要以 几内亚、澳大利亚长单执行为主，氧化铝利润不断 压缩对铝土矿采购态度谨慎。供应端上周有山西 地区氧化铝企业减产，预计持续20天，日度影响产 量2000吨。进口窗口保持开启，进口氧化铝后续仍 有流入预期。消费端上周氧化铝价再度加速下跌， 电解铝企业采购意愿稍有抬升，但大多压价成交， 周末现货价格出现较大跌幅。仓单库存25.3万吨 周内减 ...

焦煤焦炭周报 基本面供强需弱 双焦偏弱走势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 投资咨询号：Z0011692 2025 年 12 月 8 日 ⚫ 下游：钢厂铁水产量下跌，终端需求继续放缓。钢厂的 焦炭生产维持，日均焦炭产量小幅增加，库存减少。 ⚫ 中游：焦化企业连续三周盈利，主因焦煤价格走弱，生 产加速，焦炭产量明显增加，但出货困难，库存增加。 全国平均吨焦盈利30（环比-17）元/吨。 ⚫ 上游：矿山生产平稳，供应压力增大，焦煤库存大幅增 加。523家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率为85.6%，环 比-0.4%。原煤日均产量190.4万吨，环比-0.9万吨，原 煤库存471.6 ...

铁矿周报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 港库持续增加 铁矿震荡承压 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/11 ⚫ 需求端：多地启动五日应急响应，钢厂检修规模扩 大，铁水产量环比回落。上周247家钢厂高炉开工率 80.16%，环比上周减少0.93个百分点，同比去年减少 1.31个百分点，日均铁水产量 232.3万吨，环比上周 减少2.38万吨，同比去年减少0.31万吨。 ⚫ 供应端：上周海外铁矿到港量减少，但发运增加，港 口库存处于高位，供应压力不减。上周全球铁矿石发 运总3323.2万吨，环比增加44.7万吨。库存方面，全 国47个港口进口铁矿库存1 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251205 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：日央行加息预期升温，国内债市加速下跌 海外方面，就业数据依旧呈现好坏参半的局面，美国 11 月挑战者裁员 7.1 万人，同比 增速虽放缓至 24%，但规模仍为 2022 年以来同期最高，科技、电信、零售裁员居前。最新 初申失业金人数降至 19.1 万，为 2022 年 9 月来最低，显著好于预期；续申失业金人数回落 至 193.9 万，但仍处相对高位。日元因市场预期日本央行 12 月将加息而走高，长债收益率 飙至数十年新高，日央行或将利率从 0.5%上调至 0.75%，市场关注其后续加息幅度。美元指 数震荡回升至 99，10Y 美债利率升至 4.10%，美股震荡走平，油价涨超 1%，金、铜微跌。 今日关注美国 9 月 PCE 数据。 国内方面，A 股周四缩量震荡整理、结构显著分化，双创板块表现较优，微盘、红利风 格跌幅较大，两市超 3800 只个股收跌、成交额回落至 1.56 万亿，创下 8 月来新低。目前经 济基本面数据偏冷、12 月政策预期不 ...

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