Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the overseas market, the January FOMC meeting maintained the interest rate at 3.50%–3.75%. The Fed continued to purchase short - term bonds, and the balance sheet expanded. In the context of a weak US dollar and rising geopolitical risks, precious metals, industrial metals, and oil prices all showed upward trends. In the domestic market, A - shares fluctuated and closed higher, with funds flowing back to the dividend sector. The market was in a differentiated stage, and the medium - term trend was still positive [2][3]. - Precious metals continued to soar, and the gold - silver ratio was expected to recover from a low level. Copper prices were expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short term, and aluminum prices reached a new high. Alumina was expected to rebound in the short term, and cast aluminum was expected to follow the upward trend. Zinc prices were expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, while lead prices were expected to consolidate at the integer - level mark. Tin prices were expected to be volatile at a high level. Steel products and iron ore were under pressure, and coking coal and coke futures rebounded. Bean and rapeseed meal were expected to be volatile and stronger, and palm oil was expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [4][6][8][10][11][12][14][16][17][19][20][21][23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The January FOMC meeting maintained the interest rate at 3.50%–3.75% with a 10:2 vote. Most members adhered to data - dependence and policy observation. The Fed continued to purchase $40 billion of short - term bonds per month, and the balance sheet expanded until at least April. Powell emphasized the marginal stability of the economy, and the weak US dollar and rising geopolitical risks drove up the prices of precious metals, industrial metals, and oil [2]. - Domestic: A - shares fluctuated and closed higher on Wednesday. Funds returned to the dividend sector, and the two - market trading volume rebounded to 2.99 trillion yuan. The margin trading scale remained above 2.7 trillion yuan. The market was in a differentiated stage, and the medium - term trend was positive [3]. Precious Metals - Prices continued to rise strongly. COMEX gold futures exceeded $5400 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures approached $120 per ounce. Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties led investors to seek refuge in gold. The Fed's interest - rate decision was in line with expectations, and concerns about silver delivery risks also boosted silver prices. The gold - silver ratio was expected to recover from a low level [4][5]. Copper - Shanghai copper's main contract fluctuated and declined, while LME copper was strongly volatile above $13,000. Domestic spot trading was poor, and inventories increased. The Fed's neutral policy stance was considered appropriate. The weak US dollar boosted copper prices. In the short term, copper prices were expected to remain volatile at a high level, and precious metals would drive up the copper price center in the medium term [6][7]. Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 25,640 yuan/ton, up 5.75%. LME aluminum closed at $3263.5/ton, up 1.59%. Geopolitical risks in Iran and capital inflows pushed up aluminum prices. However, short - term capital overheating and the seasonal off - season in consumption led to large price fluctuations. Investors were advised to be cautious when chasing high prices [8][9]. Alumina - The main futures contract closed at 2811 yuan/ton, up 2.27%. The overall strength of the aluminum sector improved the market sentiment of alumina. The supply pressure was slightly relieved due to factory maintenance. It was expected to rebound in the short term, but the upward space was limited [10]. Cast Aluminum - The main futures contract closed at 23,785 yuan/ton, up 3.35%. The rapid rise of primary aluminum drove up the price of cast aluminum futures. The supply of scrap aluminum decreased, and the cost support increased. It was expected to follow the upward trend [11]. Zinc - Shanghai zinc's main contract was volatile and slightly stronger. The market risk preference remained high, and rising natural gas prices and low processing fees supported zinc prices. It was expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but there was a risk of correction [12][13]. Lead - Shanghai lead's main contract was in a narrow - range shock. Due to heavy pollution and losses, smelters' production cuts increased, but the terminal consumption was weak, and social inventories increased. It was expected to consolidate at the integer - level mark [14][15]. Tin - Shanghai tin's main contract was in a sideways shock. The impact of Indonesia's expected increase in the minimum tin ore purchase price was limited. The raw material supply was tight, and downstream demand was weak. It was expected to be volatile at a high level [16]. Steel Products (Screw and Coil) - Steel futures fluctuated and rebounded. Steel mills' maintenance increased, and the supply pressure decreased. The demand was weak, and the market entered the inventory - accumulation stage. It was expected to remain volatile at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory and policy changes [17][18]. Iron Ore - Iron ore futures were under pressure. The implementation of the steel export license policy might lead to a 15% - 20% decline in steel exports in the first quarter of 2026. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak. It was expected to be under pressure [19]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - Coking coal and coke futures rebounded. The first round of coke price hikes was basically implemented, and the profit of coke enterprises was repaired. The supply of coke decreased due to environmental protection, and the demand was weak. It was expected to be volatile in the short term [20]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - Bean and rapeseed meal futures were stronger. The dry and hot weather in Argentina affected crop growth, and the domestic pre - holiday stocking and declining inventories supported prices. It was expected to be volatile and stronger [21][22]. Palm Oil - Palm oil futures were slightly stronger. The Fed paused interest - rate cuts, and rising oil prices and the expected decrease in palm oil production and increase in demand supported palm oil prices. It was expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [23][24]. Metal Trading Data - The report provided the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, etc., on the previous trading day [25]. Industrial Data - The report presented detailed industrial data of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel products, iron ore, coking coal, coke, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and bean and rapeseed meal, including prices, inventories, spreads, etc. [26][28][29][30][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas: The US consumer confidence index in January dropped to its lowest since 2014, the dollar index hit a four - year low, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East increased. Domestically, A - shares entered a phase of volume contraction and differentiation, but the medium - term trend remained positive. Industrial enterprise profits in December 2025 showed year - on - year growth, and the full - year profit in 2025 had its first increase in four years [2][3]. - Precious metals: Gold prices hit new highs, and the gold - silver ratio was expected to recover from a 50 - year low [4]. - Copper: The decline in the US consumer confidence index led to a fall in copper prices. It was expected to maintain a high - level range - bound oscillation in the short term [5][6]. - Aluminum: The sharp decline in the US dollar index boosted aluminum prices, which were expected to oscillate at a high level [7]. - Alumina: The supply pressure decreased slightly, and alumina prices were expected to stabilize [8][9]. - Cast aluminum: The supply - demand stalemate continued, and cast aluminum prices were expected to oscillate at a high level [10]. - Zinc: Supported by the weakening dollar and cost factors, zinc prices were expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [11]. - Lead: Refinery production cuts provided some support, and lead prices were expected to remain weak with possible fluctuations around the integer level [12][13]. - Tin: Regulatory measures were offset by the sharp fall of the dollar, and tin prices were expected to oscillate at a high level, but there was a risk of correction [14]. - Steel products (Screw and coil): Before the Spring Festival, demand was limited, and steel prices were expected to oscillate weakly [15]. - Iron ore: Supply pressure persisted, and iron ore prices were expected to oscillate downward [16]. - Coking coal and coke: Spot trading was sluggish, and futures prices were expected to oscillate weakly [18]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal: Attention should be paid to the progress in South American production areas, and soybean meal prices were expected to continue to oscillate [19][20]. - Palm oil: It was expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to geopolitical factors, policy support, and supply - demand changes [21]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interest, and price units of various metal futures contracts such as SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc. [22] 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, it shows the price changes of SHFE copper and LME copper, as well as data on inventory, spot quotes, and spreads. Similar data are presented for nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel products, iron ore, coking coal, coke, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and soybean meal [23][25][27][29]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US economy shows resilience but trade differentiation intensifies, and metal speculation cools after acceleration; in China, the A - share market enters a stage of shrinking volume and differentiation, with a short - term correction in the upward slope of stock indices but a positive medium - term trend [2][3] - Precious metals are expected to fluctuate sharply in the short term, with an increased risk of a high - level correction in silver, and potential catch - up rallies in platinum and palladium [4][5] - Copper prices are expected to maintain high - level strong oscillations in the short term, supported by AI development and power grid investment [6][7] - Aluminum prices will remain in high - level oscillations due to market uncertainties and inventory accumulation [8][9] - Alumina may stop falling and oscillate, and a rebound depends on more production - cut news [10] - Cast aluminum is expected to oscillate at high levels due to supply - demand imbalance [11] - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate moderately upward, supported by cost increases but pressured by weak demand and inventory accumulation expectations [12][13] - Lead prices will maintain weak and stable oscillations due to weak supply - demand in the industry chain [14] - Tin prices will adjust at high levels in the short term to digest regulatory impacts and are likely to rise easily later [15][16] - Steel prices are expected to oscillate, with attention on the pre - holiday inventory accumulation rhythm [18] - Iron ore prices will oscillate under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand [19] - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate weakly before the Spring Festival [20] - Bean and rapeseed meal prices will continue to oscillate, affected by international trade and weather [21][23] - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate moderately upward, supported by production reduction and export increase [24][25] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: In November 2025, US durable goods orders increased by 5.3% month - on - month, with core capital goods orders rising for the eighth consecutive month. Trump plans to raise tariffs on South Korean products, while India and the EU are about to announce a trade agreement. Gold and silver prices fluctuate after reaching highs, and copper prices rise slightly. Crude oil falls slightly, and the OPEC+ may continue to suspend production increases. The market focuses on the progress of the Fed Chairman selection and the risk of a US government shutdown [2] - Domestic: The A - share market oscillates and closes down, with the dividend and value styles outperforming. The trading volume rebounds slightly, but individual stocks generally fall. The margin trading scale continues to flow out, and the market enters a stage of shrinking volume and differentiation. The government will implement more proactive macro - policies [3] Precious Metals - COMEX silver futures show strong intraday gains but then almost give back all the gains. Platinum and palladium prices fall at night after rising during the day. The market has significant differences. The Fed's interest - rate meeting is affected by political factors, and the risk of a high - level correction in silver increases. The catch - up rallies in platinum and palladium are worth noting [4][5] Copper - Shanghai copper and LME copper show strong oscillations. The domestic spot market has poor trading, and inventory rises. The focus of the Fed's interest - rate meeting is on the successor to Powell. Alibaba's AI model release and the 14th Five - Year Plan's power grid investment will support copper consumption. Chilean mine strikes continue, and the market is in a tight - balance state [6][7] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum prices rise. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increase. The US government faces a shutdown crisis, and the market is uncertain. Consumption is weak during the off - season, and aluminum prices remain in high - level oscillations [8][9] Alumina - Alumina futures and spot prices show different trends. Some production capacity in Guizhou is under maintenance, reducing the supply surplus. The spot price is under pressure, and there may be more production cuts in the future [10] Cast Aluminum - Cast aluminum futures prices rise. The price of scrap aluminum is resistant to decline, and the cost of cast aluminum is strongly supported. The start - up rate of aluminum alloy enterprises is slightly increased, but the supply - demand is light, and prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [11] Zinc - Shanghai zinc and LME zinc prices rise. The spot market has average trading, and inventory decreases. Some overseas mines increase production. The weak US dollar and cost increases support prices, while weak demand and inventory accumulation expectations put pressure on prices [12][13] Lead - Shanghai lead and LME lead prices show different trends. The spot market has poor trading, and inventory increases. Terminal sales are weak, and both upstream and downstream enterprises plan to have an early holiday. The industry chain has weak supply - demand, and prices will maintain weak and stable oscillations [14] Tin - Shanghai tin prices fall back, and the exchange takes regulatory measures. Alphamin's tin production in 2025 meets expectations and is expected to increase in 2026. High prices suppress consumption, and inventory accumulates. Prices will adjust at high levels in the short term and are likely to rise later [15][16] Steel (Screw and Coil) - Steel futures oscillate. The pre - holiday demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. Steel prices are expected to oscillate, with attention on the inventory accumulation rhythm [18] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillate. Overseas shipments increase slightly, and arrivals decrease significantly. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. Steel mills' inventory replenishment provides some support, and prices will oscillate under pressure [19] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke futures oscillate. The coking coal auction flow - rate increases, and the coke production decreases. The upstream supply is stable, and the downstream demand is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly before the Spring Festival [20] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - Bean and rapeseed meal futures prices rise. Brazilian soybean production is expected to be high, and the harvest progresses smoothly. Argentine weather is dry, and the Sino - Canadian trade relationship is uncertain. Prices will continue to oscillate [21][23] Palm Oil - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures prices rise. Malaysian palm oil production decreases, and exports increase. The US pressure on Canada and tight domestic rapeseed supply support prices. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate moderately upward [24][25]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks are easing but still pose concerns. Gold prices are approaching the $5000 mark. The U.S. economy shows strength, but geopolitical uncertainties and potential changes in the Fed chairperson may affect market sentiment. Different commodities are expected to have various trends based on their respective fundamentals and macro - economic factors [2][4]. - In the domestic market, there is room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year, which will promote the stable development of the capital market. The A - share market is in a stage of volume contraction and differentiation, with a positive medium - term trend [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The Q3 2025 real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly final value was slightly revised up to 4.4%, the fastest growth rate in two years, supported by strong exports, reduced inventory drag, and consumer resilience. The core PCE inflation remained at 2.9%, still above the Fed's 2% target. The 11 - month PCE price index was in line with market expectations, and the market priced the next interest rate cut in June. Geopolitical tensions have eased temporarily, but long - term concerns remain. The U.S. dollar index fell to 98.3, the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield was basically flat, and gold and silver reached new highs while copper and oil prices declined [2]. - Domestic: There is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. The A - share market closed higher with a slight increase in trading volume. The market is in a stage of volume contraction and differentiation, with a positive medium - term trend [3]. Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices continued to rise, with COMEX gold futures breaking through $4900 for the first time, closing up 2.09% at $4938.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures up 3.86% at $96.22 per ounce. Geopolitical risks and policy uncertainties have increased the demand for hedging, pushing up precious metal prices. The uncertainty of geopolitical risks and concerns about the independence of the Fed are expected to keep gold and silver prices strong [4][5]. Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly, and LME copper rebounded slightly. The spot market trading was poor, and the inventory increased. The Q3 2025 U.S. GDP growth rate was revised up, and geopolitical risks led to an increase in global risk - aversion sentiment. Rio Tinto's Q4 production increased by 5% year - on - year. It is expected that copper prices will enter a weak oscillation in the short term, but the downside adjustment space may be limited [6][7]. Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 24055 yuan/ton, up 0.59%. The LME closed at $3137.5 per ton, up 0.64%. The U.S. economic data was mixed, and the geopolitical tension in Greenland eased. The inventory of aluminum ingots decreased slightly this week, but the de - stocking is expected to be difficult to continue with the arrival of the off - season. It is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate [8][9]. Alumina - The main contract of alumina futures closed at 2717 yuan/ton, up 1.8%. Overseas and domestic news has led to a rebound in alumina futures prices, but the actual supply impact is limited, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the rebound of alumina prices will not last, and it will mainly oscillate at a low level [10]. Cast Aluminum - The main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 22855 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The consumption improvement of cast aluminum is limited, the cost decline is limited, and the supply - side start - up is stable at a low level. The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and it is expected to remain oscillating [11]. Zinc - The main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated horizontally during the day and strengthened at night, and LME zinc closed up. The U.S. economic performance is strong, the inflation meets expectations, and the dollar falls, boosting zinc prices. The inventory decreased slightly this week, and the global zinc ore supply is expected to tighten. It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [12][13]. Lead - The main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated narrowly during the day and horizontally at night, and LME lead oscillated. After the decline of lead prices slowed down, the downstream inquiry enthusiasm improved, and some enterprises started pre - holiday stockpiling. Environmental protection control in Shandong and Hebei has restricted the production of some enterprises, and the supply is expected to tighten. It is expected that lead prices will continue to oscillate stably, but the upward driving force is not strong for now [14][15]. Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin first declined and then rose during the day and strengthened at night, and LME tin oscillated horizontally. Geopolitical concerns have dissipated, and the U.S. economic data is strong, boosting risk appetite. The terminal order demand is sluggish, the downstream purchasing willingness is not strong, and the supply has no new changes. It is expected that tin prices will continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term [16]. Steel and Iron Products - **Screw and Coil**: Steel futures oscillated. Affected by seasonal demand, market trading weakened. The output of five major steel products was stable, the apparent demand declined, and the inventory gradually increased. It is expected that steel prices will mainly oscillate [17]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore futures oscillated. The central bank signaled monetary easing, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The supply is still at a high level, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The pre - holiday restocking expectation provides some support, and it is expected that the futures price will oscillate [18]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The spot market sentiment was weak and stable. The supply of upstream coal mines continued to resume production, and the demand of downstream steel mills was weak. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate weakly [19]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean meal 05 contract closed up 1.50%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract closed up 1.21%. Brazil's soybean production, export, and crushing volume are expected to increase. The precipitation in central Brazil may affect the harvest, and the drought in Argentina has led to increased speculation. It is expected that the soybean meal will oscillate and rebound in the short term [20][21]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil 05 contract closed up 1.59%. The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in January, but the U.S. biodiesel policy expectation and the improvement of palm oil export and production contraction support the price. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate strongly in the short term [22].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The weakening US dollar is favorable for the repair of lead price trends. Environmental controls in many domestic regions and the negative profit of secondary lead smelters have led to an increase in smelter shutdowns and holidays, resulting in an expected contraction in supply. Meanwhile, downstream battery enterprises are gradually stockpiling for the Spring Festival, leading to improved demand. Against the backdrop of reduced supply and increased demand, the support for the lower limit of lead prices is strengthened. In the short term, lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and stable oscillatory repair [3][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From January 16th to January 23rd, the SHFE lead price dropped from 17,475 yuan/ton to 17,095 yuan/ton, a decrease of 380 yuan/ton; the LME lead price fell from 2,037.5 dollars/ton to 2,035 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.5 dollars/ton; the SHFE-LME ratio decreased from 8.58 to 8.40, a decrease of 0.18; the SHFE inventory decreased by 7,693 tons to 29,351 tons; the LME inventory increased by 8,825 tons to 215,175 tons; the social inventory increased by 0.2 million tons to 3.45 million tons; the spot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to -140 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main SHFE lead 2603 contract price continued to decline at the beginning of the week, but then stabilized and oscillated after the market sentiment recovered and it found support near the integer level, finally closing at 17,095 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.17%. The LME lead price stopped falling and stabilized, and the contract price stabilized and recovered to 2,035 dollars/ton, with a decline of 0.15%. In the spot market, on January 23rd, the Honglu lead in Shanghai was quoted at 17,140 - 17,210 yuan/ton, with a premium of 50 yuan/ton over the SHFE lead 2603 contract. Downstream enterprises' risk aversion sentiment was relatively alleviated, and some enterprises made rigid purchases, but the transactions were still scattered [5] Industry News - In February 2026, the domestic and international lead concentrate processing fees were 250 yuan/metal ton and -150 dollars/dry ton respectively, with the average values decreasing by 50 yuan/metal ton and -5 dollars/dry ton respectively. - In January 2026, multiple cities in Shandong and Hebei launched heavy pollution emergency responses, affecting the production of some lead smelters. - Pan American Silver Corp. produced 55,900 tons of zinc and 27,000 tons of lead in 2025, and it is expected to produce 58,500 - 62,500 tons of zinc and 30,500 - 32,500 tons of lead in 2026. - The global lead market's supply surplus decreased from 29,200 tons in October to 8,900 tons in November. - In December 2025, the import volume of lead concentrates was 149,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 35.8% and a year-on-year increase of 24.63%; the import volume of silver concentrates was 239,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 32.3% and a year-on-year increase of 89.3%. The export volume of refined lead was 2,767 tons, a month-on-month increase of 141.08% and a year-on-year increase of 270.61%; the cumulative export volume of refined lead and lead products from January to December was 59,440 tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 42.5%. The import volume of refined lead was 8,395 tons, and the import volume of lead alloys was 24,011 tons; the cumulative import volume of refined lead and lead products from January to December was 198,641 tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 10.19%. The export volume of lead-acid batteries was 17.2406 million units, a month-on-month increase of 9.28 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 33.86 percentage points; the cumulative export volume of lead-acid batteries in 2025 was 219 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 12.79 percentage points [8][9] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE-LME ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium/discount, LME lead premium/discount, price difference between primary lead and secondary refined lead, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead concentrate processing fees, electrolytic lead production, secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][11][13]

从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 贵金属周报 金银再创新高，关注铂钯补涨行情 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周国际贵金属期货价格继续上攻，黄金和白银价格双双 再创历史新高。COMEX黄金期货主力合约向5000美元/盎司 的关口发起冲击，而COMEX黄金期货主力合约站上103美元 /盎司的历史新高。在金银价格屡创新高之际，铂钯期货 价格也跟涨，特别是铂金价格，NYMEX铂期货价格在上周 四周五大幅上涨，周度涨幅高达18.37%。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 贵金属周报 | 合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | 总成交量/手 | 总持仓量/手 | 价格单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report, dated January 26, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices showed a strong and volatile trend. The main reasons were the upward revision of the US GDP growth rate in Q3 2025, the mild performance of the core PCE in November, and the robust consumer spending. Trump's announcement of deploying the US fleet to blockade Iran further fermented the global risk - aversion sentiment. The continuous new highs of gold and silver limited the downward adjustment space of copper prices. AI and new - energy transformation provided strong impetus for the refined copper consumption market. Fundamentally, the tight supply pattern at the mine end continued, the output of domestic smelters declined marginally, the global visible inventory continued to rise, the domestic trade spot premium increased, and the C - structure of the near - month contract widened [2][7]. - Overall, the further fermentation of overseas risk - aversion sentiment continuously boosted the valuation center of copper prices. The better - than - expected performance of the US economic fundamentals made the market confident about the future expansion of the global refined copper consumption market. Fundamentally, the resumption of production of overseas interrupted mines was slow. The global refined copper continued to accumulate inventory, but the supply in the distribution areas was still tight. New trends were gradually replacing traditional drivers as the mainstream in the refined copper consumption market. It was expected that copper prices would continue to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the latest interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve in January [2][10] Summary by Directory I. Market Data - **Price Changes**: LME copper rose from $12,808.50 to $13,128.50 per ton, a 2.50% increase; COMEX copper rose from 584.85 to 593.7 cents per pound, a 1.51% increase; SHFE copper rose from 100,770 to 101,340 yuan per ton, a 0.57% increase; international copper rose from 89,650 to 91,120 yuan per ton, a 1.64% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 7.87 to 7.72. The LME spot premium decreased from $61.52 to - $66.06 per ton, a - 207.38% change. The Shanghai spot premium decreased from - 125 to - 180 yuan per ton [3] - **Inventory Changes**: As of January 23, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area increased to 1.067624 million tons. LME copper inventory increased by 28,125 tons (19.59%); COMEX inventory increased by 19,691 short tons (3.63%); SHFE inventory increased by 12,422 tons (5.82%); Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 7,800 tons (7.83%) [6] II. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: The US core PCE in November increased by 2.8% year - on - year, in line with expectations. Personal consumption expenditure increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and personal income increased by 0.4% month - on - month, indicating robust consumer spending. The annualized growth rate of the US GDP in Q3 2025 was revised up to 4.4%. The IMF raised the US economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.4%. Trump's actions and statements on geopolitical issues and the Federal Reserve's policy and personnel appointment further fermented the market risk - aversion sentiment, and the new highs of gold and silver boosted the copper price valuation center. In China, the industrial added value of large - scale industries in December increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with different growth rates in various industries [7][8] - **Supply - demand aspect**: Rio Tinto's copper production in Q4 increased by 5% year - on - year. In November, the domestic copper production was basically flat month - on - month. The import of copper concentrates in November reached 2.526 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.1%. In terms of demand, traditional industries were affected by high copper prices at the beginning of the year, while emerging industries such as new - energy vehicles, photovoltaics, AI data centers, and robots showed good prospects [9] III. Industry News - **Rio Tinto**: Its Q4 copper production increased by 5%. The expansion of the Oyu Tolgoi underground mine in Mongolia offset the decline in the Escondida copper mine in Chile. It is in key acquisition negotiations with Glencore and must make a formal offer by February 5 [11] - **Lundin Mining**: Due to the decline in the underground mining efficiency of its Candelaria copper mine in Chile, it lowered its copper and gold production guidance for 2026. The company's stock price fell by more than 10% on Thursday [12] - **Capstone Copper**: A copper mine in northern Chile has been shut down due to a nearly three - week labor strike, intensifying the global copper supply shortage [13] IV. Related Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of Shanghai copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, etc., with data sources from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [15][16][20]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic partial alumina enterprises are conducting maintenance, and the news of production cuts at an Australian alumina plant helps the alumina price stop falling. However, overseas disturbance news has limited impact on current production, and there is still 6 million tons of new production capacity to be put into operation overseas this year, so the actual impact on the supply increase this year is limited. The current maintenance capacity in China cannot support the reversal of the supply - demand situation. It is expected that the price will stop falling, stabilize, and fluctuate in the short term, and the subsequent rebound of alumina still needs to see more production cuts [2][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Transaction Data - From January 14th to January 23rd, 2026, the alumina futures (active) dropped from 2800 yuan/ton to 2724 yuan/ton, a decrease of 76 yuan/ton; the domestic alumina spot decreased from 2681 yuan/ton to 2657 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton; the spot premium decreased from 138 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan/ton. The Australian alumina FOB decreased from 309 US dollars/ton to 304 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton; the import profit and loss increased from - 47.37 yuan/ton to - 22.79 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.6 yuan/ton. The exchange warehouse inventory decreased from 170,779 tons to 138,697 tons, a decrease of 32,082 tons, and the exchange factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [3]. 3.2 Market Review - The main alumina futures contract dropped 0.98% last week, closing at 2724 yuan/ton. The national weighted - average price of the spot market on Friday was 2657 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton from the previous week. In terms of bauxite, some domestic northern mines had phased production cuts due to weather, while the southern supply was stable, and the domestic bauxite price remained stable. The arrival volume of Chinese bauxite on January 9th was 3.5409 million tons, a decrease of 501,400 tons from the previous week, with an overall abundant import and pressured prices. On the supply side, the total built - in production capacity of national metallurgical - grade alumina was 110.32 million tons/year, and the total operating production capacity was 87.12 million tons/year. The national weekly alumina operating rate decreased by 1.85 percentage points to 79.97% compared with the previous week, with domestic alumina plants operating at a high level. On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia continued to release newly - put - into - operation production capacity, with an increase in operating production capacity compared with the previous week, and the theoretical demand for alumina increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warrant inventory was 139,000 tons last Friday, a decrease of 38,105 tons during the week, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - A gold mine in Siguiri Province, about 800 kilometers northeast of Conakry, the capital of Guinea, collapsed, causing at least 6 deaths. The incident occurred in the Doko area, which is a manual gold - mining area with no bauxite mines, and the straight - line distance to the nearest main bauxite - mining area is about 520 kilometers, having no impact on bauxite production and shipping for the time being. Imported bauxite is abundant with light trading, and prices are under pressure. Domestic bauxite remains in a tight situation with fluctuating prices. On the supply side, there have been small - scale maintenance in Shanxi, Henan, Guangxi and other places in China, and the operating production capacity has decreased compared with the previous period, but the operating production capacity after maintenance is still theoretically in excess. Rio Tinto Group said it will cut the output of its Yarwun alumina refinery in Australia by 40% starting from October 2026, involving a production capacity of 1.2 million tons. The production capacity of downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises has increased slightly, and procurement still mainly follows long - term contracts. The alumina warrant inventory was 139,000 tons, a decrease of 38,105 tons during the week [2][6]. 3.4 Industry News - In December 2025, China imported 227,800 tons of alumina, a month - on - month decrease of 1.98% and a year - on - year increase of 1388.89%; exported 205,900 tons of alumina, a month - on - month increase of 22.56% and a year - on - year increase of 9.35%; the net import volume of alumina was 21,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 65.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 112.66%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import was 1.1981 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.62%; the cumulative export was 2.5492 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.76%; the cumulative net export volume of Chinese alumina was 1.3511 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 269.48%. The total import volume of Chinese bauxite in December was 14.67 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.0%. As of December, the cumulative import volume this year reached 201.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.4%. The cumulative consumption of imported ore by Chinese alumina enterprises as of December was about 155.77 million tons, and the current imported bauxite market is in a state of oversupply. Two alumina enterprises in Guangxi started maintenance this weekend. Enterprise A plans to start roasting maintenance on January 24th, which is expected to end in 14 days, affecting about 40,000 tons of production during this period. Enterprise B plans to start roasting maintenance on January 25th, which is expected to end in 10 - 12 days, with a halved production during this period and a daily output reduced to about 2800 tons. A certain alumina enterprise in Henan stopped all roasting production lines for maintenance this morning and is currently only producing aluminum hydroxide. Before the shutdown, only one production line was in operation due to environmental control. It is expected that one production line will resume operation in about 10 days, and the downstream delivery will not be affected during the maintenance period [7]. 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina month - to - first - continuous spread, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina exchange inventory, and alumina cost - profit [9][10][13][15][18][21][24].

棕榈油周报 2025 年 1 月 26 日 供减需增 棕榈油震荡偏强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 ⚫ 风险因素：产量和出口，生柴政策 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨103收于4174林吉特/吨，涨幅 2.53%；棕榈油05合约涨236收于8910元/吨，涨幅 2.72%；豆油05合约涨78收于8094元/吨，涨幅0.97%； 菜油05合约跌72收于8991元/吨，跌幅0.79%；CBOT豆油 主连涨1.42收于53.93美分/磅，涨幅2.70%；ICE油菜籽 活跃合约涨14.7收于651.8加元/吨，涨幅2.31%。 ⚫ 油脂板块震荡走强 ...

焦煤焦炭周报 2026 年 1 月 26 日 供应压力较大 双焦震荡偏弱 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 上周主要期货市场收市数据 注:(1)成交量、持仓量：手； (2)涨跌=周五收盘价－上周五收盘价； 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 ⚫ 下游：钢厂节前检修高位，铁水产量偏弱，叠加终端需 求淡季，原料需求不佳。上周钢厂的焦炭生产维持，日 均焦炭产量小增，库存明显增加。 ⚫ 中游：焦化利润不佳，焦企开工放缓，焦炭产量减少。 全国平均吨焦盈利-66（环比-1）元/吨。上周产能利用 率为72.41%（-0.14）；焦炭日均产量63.31（-0.14） 万吨，焦炭库存81.45（-0 ...