炼厂减产增多 铅价企稳修整 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 铅周报 2025 年 12 月 1 日 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价延续偏弱走势。宏观面看，美联储 位官员态度转鸽，12 月降息预期回升，美元回落至 100 关口下方，风险资产压力减弱。 要点 基本面看，LME 交仓压力放缓，但库存保持在 26.4 万 吨附近的高位，基金净多头持仓减半回落，伦铅延续 弱势拖累沪铅走势。内外铅精矿加工费维持弱势报价， 实际成交较寡淡。再生铅炼厂利润亏损扩大，对原料 压价采购，废旧电瓶报价小幅下调，成交情况一般。 冶炼端炼厂减停产较多，九华新材 11 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main futures price of Shanghai zinc fluctuated sideways. The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut by the Fed rebounded to over 80%, and the US dollar declined, which was beneficial for the trend of risk assets [3]. - The import of zinc ore remained unprofitable, leading to a decline in processing fees for both domestic and overseas zinc ores. The profit of smelters was further eroded, and the scale of production cuts and suspensions in December expanded. The supply of refined zinc in December decreased by over 20,000 tons month - on - month [3]. - The export window of zinc ingots remained open, alleviating the high - supply pressure in the domestic market. The start - up of primary enterprises maintained off - season characteristics, with a slight fluctuation in the start - up rate [3]. - LME inventory rose above 50,000 tons, and domestic social inventory continued to decline slowly. The overall fundamentals were balanced, with the weakening of consumption and the cooling of the LME squeeze as negative factors, and the decline in processing fees and zinc ingot exports as supporting factors. It was expected that the zinc price would remain in a range - bound pattern in the short term [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - The price of SHFE zinc rose from 22,395 yuan/ton on November 21 to 22,425 yuan/ton on November 28, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The price of LME zinc rose from 2992 dollars/ton to 3051 dollars/ton, an increase of 59 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 7.48 to 7.35 [4]. 3.2 Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated narrowly sideways, with obvious support from the 40 - day moving average below, and the weekly increase was 0.16%. LME zinc stabilized and rebounded slightly, with a weekly increase of 1.97% [5]. - In the spot market, affected by smelter maintenance and exports, the supply of goods was limited, and traders maintained a price - holding attitude. However, downstream procurement was cautious, and spot trading was relatively light [5]. - As of November 28, LME zinc inventory increased by 4425 tons to 51,750 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 4431 tons to 95,916 tons. As of November 27, social inventory decreased by 0.46 million tons to 148,100 tons [6]. - In the macro - aspect, US economic data showed mixed performance. The inflation in September rebounded, and the UK's fiscal budget plan involved tax increases. China's manufacturing PMI in November increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.2% [6][7]. 3.3 Industry News - As of the week of November 28, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 300 yuan/metal ton to 2050 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 11.8 dollars/dry ton to 61.25 dollars/dry ton [10]. - Kazakhstan's refined zinc output in October was 20,475 tons, a 1.5% increase from September. The output in the first 10 months of this year was 214,334 tons, a 3.7% year - on - year decrease [10]. - Volcan's zinc concentrate metal output in the third quarter of 2025 was 59,800 tons, a 1.7% increase from the previous quarter and a 4.9% decrease from the same period last year [10]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, inventory changes, processing fees of zinc ore, and start - up rates of downstream enterprises, etc., to visually display the market situation of zinc [11][13][17][19][23].

李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 2025 年 12 月 1 日 关注美联储动向 铝价高位震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 铝周报 ⚫ 电解铝方面，伴随美联储官员近期连续鸽派发言，以 及美国9月零售低于预期，11月消费信心指数骤降等 因素，美联储降息预期冲回86%以上，市场风险偏好 跟随改善。基本面新疆地区前期电解铝企业投产的 新产能本周继续投放，其余电解铝企业开工产能持 稳运行。消费端上周铝加工开工率小幅上行0.3%至 62.3%，在年末冲量需求下汽车领域相对稳健、铝线 缆温和回升，带动行业开工率上行。周度铝库存继续 去库，较上周四减少2.5万吨至59.6万吨，铝 ...

铁矿周报 2025 年 12 月 1 日 铁水连续减少 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 铁矿震荡承压 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/11 ⚫ 需求端：上周钢厂亏损加剧，高炉开工回落，铁水产 量环比回落，目前略高于去年同期水平。上周247家 钢厂高炉开工率81.09%，环比上周减少1.10个百分 点，同比去年减少0.53个百分点，日均铁水产量 234.68万吨，环比上周减少1.60万吨，同比去年增加 0.81万吨。 ⚫ 供应端：上周海外铁矿发运减少，但到港量大幅增 加，港口库存处于高位，供应压力不减。上周全球铁 矿石发运总3278.4万吨，环比减少238.0万吨。澳洲 巴西铁矿发 ...

豆粕周报 关注美豆出口进展 连粕震荡运行 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆1月合约涨10.75收于1137.25美分/蒲式 耳，涨幅0.95%；豆粕01合约涨32收于3044元/吨，涨幅 1.06%；华南豆粕现货涨10收于3000元/吨，涨幅0.33%； 菜粕01合约涨21收于2452元/吨，涨幅0.86%；广西菜粕 现货涨40收于2550元/吨，涨幅1.59%。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 2025 年 12 月 1 日 ⚫ 美国农业部陆续公布出口销售报告，上周民间出口商报 告向中国出口销售43.5万吨大豆，关注中美之间大豆采 购协议进一步的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International oil prices are influenced by both bullish and bearish factors, and domestic industrial enterprise profits have declined. A - shares are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and the bond market still has bearish sentiment. Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate, copper prices are expected to be strongly volatile, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate favorably, alumina prices are expected to continue to be weak, casting aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in a wide range, lead prices are expected to stabilize and consolidate, tin prices are expected to be strongly volatile, industrial silicon prices are expected to be strongly volatile, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely, nickel prices are expected to be strongly volatile, soda ash and glass prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure, coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices are expected to fluctuate, and palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [2][3][4][6][8][10][11][12][13][15][16][18][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - SHFE copper closed at 86,990 yuan/ton, up 0.46%; LME copper closed at 10,930 dollars/ton, down 0.21% [30] - SHFE aluminum closed at 21,500 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; LME aluminum closed at 2,832 dollars/ton, down 1.13% [30] - SHFE zinc closed at 22,415 yuan/ton, up 0.27%; LME zinc closed at 3,022 dollars/ton, down 1.08% [30] - SHFE lead closed at 16,955 yuan/ton, down 0.64%; LME lead closed at 1,984 dollars/ton, up 0.51% [30] - SHFE nickel closed at 116,900 yuan/ton, down 0.31%; LME nickel closed at 14,840 dollars/ton, down 0.03% [30] - SHFE tin closed at 302,200 yuan/ton, up 2.14%; LME tin closed at 37,925 dollars/ton, down 0.43% [30] - COMEX gold closed at 4,189.60 dollars/ounce, down 0.15%; SHFE silver closed at 12,525.00 yuan/kilogram, up 2.44%; COMEX silver closed at 53.83 dollars/ounce, up 0.12% [30] - SHFE rebar closed at 3,093 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3,293 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [30] - DCE iron ore closed at 799.5 yuan/ton, up 0.31%; DCE coking coal closed at 1,071.0 yuan/ton, down 1.24%; DCE coke closed at 1,607.0 yuan/ton, down 0.74% [30] - GFEX industrial silicon closed at 9,115.0 yuan/ton, up 1.05% [30] - DCE soybean meal closed at 3,055.0 yuan/ton, up 1.33%; CZCE rapeseed meal closed at 2,469.0 yuan/ton, up 1.23% [30] 2. Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, SHFE copper's closing price on November 27 was 86,990 yuan/ton, up 400 from the previous day; LME copper's closing price was 10,930 dollars/ton, down 23. SHFE copper's warehouse receipts remained unchanged, LME copper's inventory increased by 675 tons [31] - For nickel, SHFE nickel's closing price on November 27 was 116,900 yuan/ton, down 360 from the previous day; LME nickel's closing price was 14,840 dollars/ton, down 5. SHFE nickel's warehouse receipts decreased by 396 tons, LME nickel's inventory increased by 930 tons [31] - For zinc, SHFE zinc's closing price on November 27 was 22,415 yuan/ton, up 60 from the previous day; LME zinc's closing price was 3,022 dollars/ton, down 33. SHFE zinc's warehouse receipts decreased by 2,502 tons, LME zinc's inventory increased by 875 tons [34] - For lead, SHFE lead's closing price on November 27 was 16,955 yuan/ton, down 90 from the previous day; LME lead's closing price was 1,973.5 dollars/ton, down 8. SHFE lead's warehouse receipts decreased by 98 tons, LME lead's inventory increased by 400 tons [34] - For aluminum, SHFE aluminum's closing price on November 27 was 21,565 yuan/ton, up 30 from the previous day; LME aluminum's closing price was 2,831.5 dollars/ton, down 32.5. SHFE aluminum's warehouse receipts decreased by 76 tons, LME aluminum's inventory decreased by 675 tons [34] - For alumina, SHFE alumina's closing price on November 27 was 2,724 yuan/ton, up 4 from the previous day; the national average spot price of alumina remained unchanged. SHFE alumina's warehouse inventory decreased by 604 tons [34] - For tin, SHFE tin's closing price on November 27 was 302,200 yuan/ton, up 6,320 from the previous day; LME tin's closing price was 37,925 dollars/ton, down 165. SHFE tin's warehouse receipts increased by 34 tons, LME tin's inventory remained unchanged [34] - For precious metals, there was no change in the prices of gold and silver in various markets on November 27 compared with the previous day. The gold - to - silver ratio in SHFE decreased by 1.81, and the gold - to - silver ratio in COMEX decreased by 0.22 [34] - For other varieties, data such as prices, warehouse receipts, and inventories of rebar, iron ore, coke, coking coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal on November 27 and their changes compared with the previous day are provided [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas risk appetite continues to recover, while both domestic stocks and bonds are weak. The US economic data shows structural differentiation, with the market pricing an 85% probability of a December interest rate cut by the Fed. In China, policies aim to boost consumption, but the A - share market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, and the bond market lacks a clear direction [2][3]. - Precious metals are expected to be strong in the short - term due to the strengthening of interest rate cut expectations. Copper prices are likely to remain high and volatile, aluminum prices are expected to be favorable, alumina will continue its weak trend, and other metals and industrial products also have their respective market trends based on supply - demand and macro - economic factors [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomics - Overseas: US data is structurally differentiated. Initial jobless claims dropped to 216,000, but continuing claims rose to 1.96 million. Durable goods and core capital goods orders in September increased by 0.5% and 0.9% respectively. The Fed's Beige Book shows weak consumption and stagnant economic activity. The market prices an 85% probability of a December interest rate cut, with the US dollar index falling and copper, gold, and crude oil prices rising [2]. - Domestic: Six ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a plan to develop e - commerce and integrate AI into the consumer goods industry. The A - share market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, and the bond market lacks a clear direction. The 10Y and 30Y treasury bond yields are 1.83% and 2.19% respectively [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose on Wednesday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.45% to $4196.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures soared 4.13% to $53.76 per ounce. Weak US economic data and the possible Fed chair change support interest rate cut expectations. The probability of a December interest rate cut is 85%. Short - term, gold and silver prices are expected to be strongly volatile. Platinum and palladium futures can be bought at low prices [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper futures rose, and LME copper approached the $11,000 resistance level. The spot market had weak trading. The Fed's Beige Book shows weak consumer spending and rising input costs. US PPI data is mild, and overseas institutions predict a decline in core PCE. Chile's Codelco raised the long - term copper price for China in 2026. Copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile, with resistance at $11,000 - $11,200 [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum futures rose slightly, and LME aluminum rose 2.25%. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased. US economic data shows labor market resilience but also potential weakness. The market's expectation of Fed easing remains unchanged. Aluminum prices are expected to be favorable [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Wednesday, alumina futures fell 0.37%. The supply - demand situation has limited changes, and the oversupply suppresses prices. The futures price is below the average cost, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Wednesday, cast aluminum alloy futures fell slightly. The aluminum price has stabilized, and the cast aluminum market is in a state of stop - falling and shock. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost provides good support [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Wednesday, Shanghai zinc futures rose at night. The spot market was weak. The decrease in the number of initial jobless claims in the US reduced interest rate cut expectations, but the UK's tax - increase plan weakened the US dollar, which is beneficial to zinc prices. The supply pressure is gradually improving, but the market lacks the power for continuous rise, and zinc prices are expected to be widely volatile [12]. 3.8 Lead - On Wednesday, Shanghai lead futures were weakly volatile. The decline of LME lead dragged down Shanghai lead. The reopening of the lead ingot import window suppresses prices, but cost support and regional supply shortages limit the decline. Lead prices are expected to be weakly volatile [13]. 3.9 Tin - On Wednesday, Shanghai tin futures rose at night. The weakening of the US dollar and the political instability in the DRC support tin prices. However, the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials is low, and inventory is expected to increase. With the approaching Fed meeting, the market sentiment may fluctuate, so be cautious about chasing up prices [14]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Wednesday, industrial silicon futures were narrowly volatile. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is weak. The social inventory has risen, and the futures price is expected to be weakly volatile [15][16]. 3.11 Lithium Carbonate - On Wednesday, lithium carbonate prices were widely volatile. The raw material prices rose, and the main contract has switched to 2605. The market has a strong long - short game, and lithium prices are expected to be widely volatile [17]. 3.12 Nickel - On Wednesday, nickel prices were volatile. The market expects an 82% probability of a December interest rate cut by the Fed. The spot market has good inquiry enthusiasm but limited trading volume. The macro - environment may boost nickel prices in the short - term [18]. 3.13 Soda Ash and Glass - On Wednesday, soda ash futures were volatile, and glass futures were strongly volatile. The supply of glass is shrinking, but the demand is weak, and inventories are rising. The supply of soda ash is tightening, but the demand is difficult to improve significantly. Prices are expected to be low and volatile [19]. 3.14 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On Wednesday, steel futures rebounded. The cost is weakening, and the demand is expected to be weak. The supply pressure is increasing, and steel prices are expected to be weakly volatile [20][21]. 3.15 Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron ore futures were adjusted. The demand is weak due to steel mill losses and production cuts. The supply pressure remains high, and iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure [22]. 3.16 Coking Coal and Coke - On Wednesday, coking coal and coke futures were weakly volatile. The online auction of coking coal had a high flow - rate, and the spot price was weak. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile [23]. 3.17 Industrial Data - The report provides trading data of various metal futures on November 26, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests. It also shows the changes in inventory, spot prices, and other data of different metals, such as copper, nickel, zinc, etc. [24][25][28]

专题报告 2025 年 11 月 27 日 铂钯期货上市首日交易策略 核心观点及策略 套利策略：多铂空钯 ⚫ 短期策略：铂钯均可开盘做多 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 投资咨询号：Z0017785 何天 ⚫ 铂、钯期货上市之后，铂钯将有了"中国价格"，以人民 币计价的铂、钯期货合约消除了企业的汇率风险敞口，合 约的交割设计也更贴合国内产业特点，首次提出了海绵 状、粉状以及锭状产品三种形态交割，为工业用户提高了 套保效率；期权也提供了更灵活的风险管理工具，企业可 以在锁定最大损失的同时保留收益空间。 ⚫ 铂钯供应均高度集中 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251126 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：俄乌和谈进程提速，A 股迎来修复 海外方面，陆续补发的经济数据再度提振市场降息预期，美国 9 月零售环比仅增 0.2%， 显著弱于 8 月的 0.6%，在关税抬价和劳动力市场走软背景下，消费趋疲；9 月 PPI 环比回升 0.3%符合预期，能源涨 3.5%与食品涨 1.1%是主要贡献；ADP 周报显示过去四周美国私营部 门就业岗位周均减少 1.35 万，就业数据仍偏弱，12 月降息预期再度提高至 85%。美元指数 回落至 99.8，10Y 美债利率回落至 4%，美股低开高走。泽连斯基称乌方已准备推进美方支 持的停战框架，并愿与特朗普协商分歧，要求欧洲同步参与，油价下跌超 1%，金价、铜价 上涨。今日关注 9 月耐用品订单以及初申失业金人数。 国内方面，A 股放量修复，两市近 4300 只个股收涨、成交额缩量至 1.74 万亿，双创板 块领涨，教育、通讯设备、贵金属等板块表现相对较优，目前地缘风险阶段性缓和、基本面 数据偏冷、12 月政策预期尚未发 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251125 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：美国降息预期再度走强，中美元首超预期通话 海外方面，市场降息预期再度走强，美联储理事沃勒称劳动力市场持续走弱，使其倾向 支持 12 月降息，但大量延迟数据将在会后集中公布，或令 1 月决策更复杂。12 月降息概率 升至 80%。在预期提振下，主要资产延续修复：美股反弹逾 2%，金价重回 4100 美元，油价 涨超 1%，铜价走高，美元指数在 100.2 附近震荡，美债利率回落。今日关注美国 9 月零售 及 PPI 数据。 国内方面，A 股宽幅震荡收涨，两市超 4000 只个股收涨、成交额缩量至 1.74 万亿，科 创、中证 2000 等成长小票领涨，在基本面数据边际走弱、地缘扰动风偏的背景下，短期预 计震荡偏弱，保持观望。资金面偏松，债市走势分化，主要期限国债利率小幅上行，短期依 旧缺乏清晰的主线。中美元首通话超预期，话题涉及台湾、乌克兰、芬太尼和美国农产品。 本周关注 10 月工业企业利润及 11 月 PMI 数据。 贵金属：美联储官员鸽派言论 ...