Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, supported by the dual - loose expectations of monetary and fiscal policies in the US, the economy is expected to recover moderately, and the US dollar is likely to fluctuate at a high level, reducing the suppression of risk assets. China will enter the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", with the economy growing steadily, and fiscal and monetary policies remaining moderately loose. The resonance of domestic and foreign policies is expected to improve the marginal demand for commodities [4][107]. - In terms of supply, the global zinc concentrate increment in 2026 will be about 500,000 metal tons, narrowing compared to 2025, and the raw material supply - demand will turn to a tight balance. The long - term processing fee is expected to rise, but the recovery of overseas refined zinc supply is limited. In China, the smelting capacity continues to expand, but the growth rate of refined zinc production will slow down to 5%, and the actual capacity release of the Huoshaoyun project is the core variable of the domestic supply pattern [4][107]. - The demand shows the characteristics of "slowing growth and sector differentiation". The infrastructure investment growth rate is expected to recover to 4% - 5%, and the projects will be launched in advance. The policy of replacing old with new supports durable - goods consumption, but the growth of automobile production and sales slows down, the policy effect of home appliances weakens, and exports are under pressure. The real estate is still at the bottom - grinding stage, and its drag on zinc consumption is weakening. In the new energy field, the new photovoltaic installations turn negative due to the high base, while the wind power maintains positive growth. The export resilience of primary products will provide consumption increments [4][107]. - Overall, the global zinc mining and smelting are still in the expansion cycle, the supply growth of zinc elements exceeds the demand growth, and the oversupply situation expands slightly. The core logic of zinc price pressure remains unchanged. However, the macro - drive is positive, and the positive expectations of copper and aluminum are expected to partially offset the short - board of zinc fundamentals. In 2026, the zinc price is difficult to show a unilateral market, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 21,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton. There will be phased unilateral opportunities during the macro - micro resonance stage, and the structural opportunities are anchored on the main line of price ratio repair [4][108]. Summary According to the Directory I. Zinc Market Review - In 2025, the zinc market was weak overall, with prominent internal - external structural contradictions. The price fluctuated downward under the influence of macro - policies and fundamental factors. In the first half of the year, factors such as Trump's possible tariff policy and the Fed's suspension of interest - rate cuts suppressed the zinc price. In the second half, the market was in a pattern of "repeated policy expectations and stalemate fundamentals", and the Shanghai zinc main contract fluctuated in the range of 21,600 - 23,200 yuan/ton. The LME zinc showed a trend of first falling and then rising, and the price rebounded due to the decline in LME inventory [9][10]. II. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 US - In 2025, the US economy achieved a soft landing. The GDP growth rate was 2%, lower than 2.8% in 2024. The ISM manufacturing PMI was in the contraction range, the employment market declined, and inflation rebounded moderately. The Fed started preventive interest - rate cuts in September. In 2026, the GDP growth rate is expected to be 2.1%. The impact of tariffs will weaken, and inflation may decline slightly. The fiscal and monetary policies are expected to remain loose, but the change of the Fed chairman may affect the interest - rate cut path. The US dollar is expected to fluctuate, which will relieve the suppression of commodities [13][14]. 2.2 Eurozone - In 2025, the Eurozone economy recovered slightly in the first three quarters, with a GDP growth rate of 1.2%. Inflation dropped to 2.1%, and the ECB kept the key interest rate unchanged since July. In 2026, the GDP growth rate is expected to be 1.1%, and the internal differentiation will continue. Germany's economy may recover, while France's growth may slow down. Inflation is expected to stabilize around 2%, and the ECB's monetary policy is expected to remain stable. The fiscal policy may expand structurally [15][16]. 2.3 China - In 2025, China's economic growth showed a "high - in - the - front and low - in - the - back" feature, with an annual growth rate of about 5%. Exports were strong, but domestic consumption and private investment were weak. In 2026, as the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", the economy is expected to grow steadily, with a GDP growth target of about 5%. The quarterly growth rate may be "low - in - the - front and high - in - the - back". Exports are expected to benefit from the relaxation of Sino - US trade frictions and the fiscal loosening in Europe and the US. The fiscal policy will be more active, and the monetary policy will remain moderately loose [17][18]. III. Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - In 2025, the global zinc concentrate new capacity was 700,000 tons, with an increment of 700,000 metal tons to 12.7 million tons. In 2026, the new capacity will narrow to 500,000 tons to 13.2 million tons. The domestic market will contribute the main increment. The supply - demand pattern is expected to turn from loose to tight balance [29][30]. - The internal and external processing fees first rose and then fell in 2025. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee dropped to 2,000 yuan/metal ton at the end of the year. The import processing fee also declined in November. The CZSPT proposed a 2026Q1 import processing fee guidance of 105 - 120 US dollars/dry ton. In 2025, the zinc ore import increased significantly, and it is expected to remain above 5 million tons in 2026 [36][37][38]. 3.2 Refined Zinc Supply - In 2025, the global refined zinc production increased by 4.12% year - on - year. Overseas production decreased by 5.48% in the first nine months, while China's increased by 7.03%. In 2026, overseas refined zinc production is expected to increase slightly by 50,000 - 100,000 tons, but the recovery is limited due to factors such as cost and raw material supply [44][48]. - In 2025, China's refined zinc production increased by 10.7% year - on - year. In 2026, the production is expected to increase by 350,000 tons to 7.2 million tons, with a growth rate slowing down to 5.1%. The actual production of the Xinjiang Kunlun Zinc Industry project is an important variable. In 2025, the net import of refined zinc was about 250,000 - 260,000 tons, and in 2026, the import and export volume may offset each other [53][54][57]. 3.3 Refined Zinc Demand - Globally, in 2025, the refined zinc consumption increased by 3.9% year - on - year. In 2026, India's zinc demand is expected to continue to expand, the US zinc consumption is expected to grow steadily, and Europe's traditional consumption may improve marginally while the green industry will support consumption [67][68]. - In China, in 2025, the apparent consumption increased by more than 8%, but the actual consumption was weak. The primary product exports were strong, and the galvanized sheet export is expected to continue to grow in 2026. Traditional consumption such as infrastructure and real estate was weak in 2025, and infrastructure investment is expected to recover in 2026. The real estate is still at the bottom - grinding stage, and its drag on zinc consumption will weaken. The growth of automobile and home appliance sales will slow down in 2026. In the new energy field, the new photovoltaic installations may turn negative, while the wind power will maintain positive growth [71][73][77]. 3.4 Global Visible Inventory - In 2025, the global visible inventory had prominent structural contradictions. The LME inventory decreased, and the low inventory supported the LME zinc price. The domestic inventory increased, suppressing the Shanghai zinc price. In 2026, the LME inventory is expected to have limited recovery, and the domestic high - inventory pressure may be difficult to relieve, especially in Q1 [105][106]. IV. Summary and Outlook for the Future - The macro - environment in 2026 is expected to be favorable for the zinc market. The supply - demand pattern will change, with the supply growth narrowing and the demand showing sector differentiation. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely, and there will be phased and structural opportunities [107][108].

豆粕年报 2025 年 12 月 10 日 供应宽松预期不改 连粕低位区间震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/22 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 要点 要点 ⚫ 2025年1-11月以来，豆粕市场在南美产情预期，中美贸 易关系博弈，美豆生长期天气题材，中加贸易关系不确 定性，以及巴西大豆到港充足等因素下运行，但在供应 整体宽松大格局的压制下，期价延续低位区间震荡运行。 要点 ⚫ 12月USDA报告显示，美豆单产和出口量维持不变，后续 2025/26年度美豆调整空间有限；美国方面称2026年2月 底前我国将采购1200万吨美豆，目前已采购量为550-600 万吨，目前采购节奏尚 ...

铅年报 2025 年 12 月 10 日 成本与过剩角力 铅价宽幅震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/20 铅市宽幅震荡 原生端，2025年全球铅精矿新增产能11 万吨，2026 年小幅增加至 23 万吨，铅精矿供应由短缺装向紧 平衡。预计内外加工费保持低位，跌幅收窄。废 旧电瓶报废量较稳定，供应难以匹配需求，供需 错配的格局下，废旧电瓶价格易涨难跌。 冶炼端，预计 2026 年全球精炼铅供应增幅放缓， 其中国内原生铅产量增加 10 万吨至 394 万吨，主 要由火烧云及新凌铅业新增项目贡献，增幅收窄。 再生铅新国标落地实施将加速行业洗牌，原料及 利润的双重掣肘难改，炼厂产能利用率预计保持 低位，全年产量 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 周二国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，国际银价大幅上涨突破 60 美元的整数关口，COMEX 白银期货打涨 4.72%报 61.16 美元/盎司，受银价飙升带动，国际金价和铂、钯价格均上涨。 白银在供应受限的情况下飙升突破创纪录的 60 美元的里程碑。世界白银协会在一份研究报 告中表示，包括太阳能、电动汽车及其基础设施、数据中心和人工智能在内的行业将推动工 业需求在 2030 年之前持续增长。白银价格也受到持续低供应、全球库存下降、美联储降息 预期以及最近被列入美国关键矿产清单的支撑。与此同时，美联储为期两天的会议将于周三 商品日报 20251210 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：国际银价站上 60 美元，国内债市止跌 海外方面，12 月 FOMC 前夕，就业数据呈现结构性分化：一方面，"小非农"ADP 边 际回暖，11 月截至 22 日的四周内，私营部门周均新增就业达 4,750 人，结束此前连续四周 的净流失，释放出短期企稳信号；另一方面，10 月 JOLTS 则指向整体劳动力市场继续降温。 职位空缺意外回升 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251209 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：海外市场情绪谨慎，国内政治局会议召开 海外方面，特朗普政策出现"科技局部松动与贸易再趋强硬"的双重信号：政府拟允许 英伟达 H200 以收费模式对华出口，显示高端芯片监管出现边际调整；同时特朗普再度施压 邻国，威胁提升对墨西哥和加拿大的关税，引发外部摩擦升温。热门美联储主席候选人哈塞 特重申，美联储应坚持数据依赖，不提前给出路径承诺。多重政策预期交织下，市场情绪偏 谨慎，美股震荡走弱，美元指数回升至 99，10Y 美债收益率升至 4.16%，铜价续创新高，而 油金承压回落。 国内方面，中央政治局会议部署 2026 年经济工作，强调稳中求进、提质增效，继续实 施积极财政与适度宽松货币政策，加大逆周期与跨周期调节，提升宏观治理效能。会议提出 坚持内需主导、建设强大国内市场，并以创新驱动培育壮大新动能，总体而言符合预期，等 待下半周中央经济工作会议更多细节。11 月外贸明显回升，出口同比 5.9%，进口同比 1.9%， 对欧盟、非洲、拉美地区出口走强是 ...

海外关注 12 月 FOMC， 国内监管释放"扶优限劣"信号 核心观点 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 宏观周报 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 2025 年 12 月 08 日 ⚫ 海外方面，美国9月核心PCE同比维持在2.8%，符合市场预 期，其中核心商品走高、核心服务降温，巩固12月降息25BP 的预期。密歇根12月消费者信心初值回升至53.3，结束四连 降；1年和5年通胀预期分别降至4.1%和3.2%，均回落至年 初低点，反映居民对未来财务状况与就业的判断有所改善， 通胀预期压力同步缓解。上述数据巩固市场对本月降息25bp 的押注，周五美股小幅走高，10Y美债利率回升至4.12 ...

铜周报 海外库存错配，铜价强势上行 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周铜价强势上行，主因美国9月核心PCE低于预期助推降 息情绪升温，某大宗商品巨头上周大量注销LME亚洲库仓 单引发海外货源紧缺担忧，叠加市场普遍猜测未来美联储 影子主席将坚持鸽派立场；此外，美国ADP就业人数以外 下滑进一步助推12月降息预期，海外市场风险偏好回升。 基本面来看，海外中断矿山复产缓慢，中国铜冶炼小组 (CSPT)联合声明2026年或减产约10%，社会库存低位下探， 内贸现货升水上行，近月盘面C结构收缩。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 2025 年 12 月 8 日 ⚫ 整体来看 ...

钢材周报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 关注成本风险 期价震荡承压 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 上周主要期货市场收市数据 注:(1)成交量、持仓量：手； (2)涨跌=周五收盘价－上周五收盘价； 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 ⚫ 宏观面：国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议，研 究进一步做好节能降碳工作。会议指出，要切实增强节 能降碳内生动力，充分发挥政策效应，不断完善市场机 制，有效调动全社会的积极性，加快形成绿色生产生活 方式。多地启动重污染天气应急响应。12月7日17时起， 洛阳启动重污染天气橙色(Ⅱ级)预警响应。长沙12月7 日20时启动重污染天气Ⅲ级响应措施。 ...

贵金属周报 美联储会议临近，贵金属波动或加剧 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周国际金价在4200美元/盎司一线窄幅震荡，而国际银 价则在上周一再创新高之后回调，上周五再度上攻触及60 美元/盎司的关口。白银价格上周的回调主因投资者获利 了结所致，贵金属价格依然受到降息预期和避险需求的支 撑。铂钯期货在新上市之后，在上周整体呈冲高回落的走 势。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 表 1 上周主要市场贵金属交易数据 注:(1) 成交量、持仓量：手（上期所按照双边计算，COMEX/LME 按照单边计算；LME 为前一日官方数据）； (2) 涨跌= 周五收盘价－上周五收盘价； (3) 涨跌幅=（周五收盘价-上周 ...

2025 年 12 月 8 日 多头氛围浓 铝价较强 核心观点及策略 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 铝周报 ⚫ 电解铝方面，宏观面美国11月ADP创两年半来最大降 幅，显示劳动力市场疲软。11月美国制造业数据萎 缩，凸显企经济挑战，加上美联储潜在领导层变动， 市场对美联储鸽派预期不断升温。同时非美货币强 势，美元持续遭遇抛压，提振金属市场。基本面电解 铝供应端基本稳定，消费端铝价快速大幅冲高限制 部分消费，铝加工周度开工率略有下调0.4%，不过中 长期市场对新能源及储能领域消费依旧预期较好。 周度电解铝库存较上周持稳于59.6万吨，铝棒库存 12.1 ...