Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures continued to decline from a high level. The US November non - farm payroll data was postponed, increasing the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December and causing the US dollar to rise, which suppressed risk assets. After a large - scale delivery in LME, the inventory increased to over 260,000 tons, cooling down the enthusiasm of long - position funds and leading to an adjustment of lead prices at home and abroad. [3][6] - The supply of lead ore remained tight, and the low TC situation would persist for a long time. The price of waste batteries was stable with a slight downward trend. The profit of secondary lead refineries decreased, and some refineries reduced their production enthusiasm, with the possibility of new production cuts. [3][6] - On the smelting side, primary and secondary lead refineries had both production cuts and restarts. The overall refinery operating rate was expected to remain stable. On the demand side, the consumption of electric bicycles weakened, but large battery enterprises still maintained an operating rate of over 80%, and the overall demand for raw materials remained stable. [3][6][7] - Overall, the uncertainty of interest rate cuts dampened market optimism, and the large - scale delivery in LME affected long - position funds. The tight raw material supply, the increased expectation of production cuts due to compressed profits of secondary lead refineries, and the insignificant inventory accumulation provided support for lead prices. However, it was difficult to significantly boost demand in the off - season. In the short term, the market sentiment was cautious, and it was expected that Shanghai lead would weakly seek support, and attention should be paid to the performance near the lower integer - value levels. [3][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | 11/14 | 11/21 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 17,495 | 17,165 | - 330 | Yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 2,066 | 1,989 | - 77 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.47 | 8.63 | 0.16 | | | SHFE Inventory | 42,790 | 38,921 | - 3,869 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 222,475 | 262,850 | 40,375 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 35,900 | 39,400 | 3,500 | Tons | | Spot Premium | - 190 | - 145 | 45 | Yuan/ton | [4] Market Review - The main contract PB2601 of Shanghai lead futures declined from a high level, testing the support of the lower moving averages, with a weekly decline of 1.94%. On Friday night, it continued to be weak. The LME lead price also dropped significantly from a high level, affected by large - scale delivery and the strengthening of the US dollar due to the reduced expectation of interest rate cuts in December, with a weekly decline of 3.73%. [5] - In the spot market, as of November 21, the price of lead in the Shanghai market was 17,145 - 17,195 yuan/ton, at par with the SHFE 2512 contract. As lead prices continued to weaken, sellers lowered their premium quotes, and the discount of the supply from electrolytic lead plants narrowed. However, due to the falling lead prices, downstream enterprises were more hesitant, and the spot market trading became lighter. [5] - In terms of inventory, as of November 21, the LME weekly inventory was 262,850 tons, an increase of 40,375 tons from the previous week. The SHFE inventory was 38,921 tons, a decrease of 3,869 tons from the previous week. As of November 20, the social inventory in five regions monitored by SMM was 37,700 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from Monday and an increase of 2,800 tons from last Thursday. After the delivery of the current - month contract, some downstream enterprises purchased on demand, and the inventory first increased and then decreased. [6] Industry News - As of the week ending November 21, the domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 300 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee was - 135 US dollars/dry ton, with both averages remaining unchanged from the previous week. [8] - In October, the import volume of lead concentrates was 98,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 34.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.8%. The import volume of silver concentrates was 149,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The import volume of refined lead and lead products was 18,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.77% and a year - on - year increase of 79.18%. The export volume of refined lead and lead products was 3,981 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.37% and a year - on - year increase of 43.74%. [8] - A secondary lead smelting enterprise in East China was expected to shut down for the next two months due to the expiration of its hazardous waste business license and the pending approval, which might slightly weaken the weekly operating rate next week. [8]

铜周报 降息预期回落，铜价高位调整 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 2025 年 11 月 24 日 ⚫ 上周铜价高位调整，主因美国非农数据超预期打压12月降 息前景，部分官员表示为了支持就业市场而降低利率可能 会延长高通胀周期，美元指数反弹承压金属市场。基本面 来看，印尼Grasberg有望将于2026年二季度复产，全球精 矿短期维持紧缺，国内精铜产量下滑，社会库存区间震荡 运行，高铜价对传统终端消费略有抑制，近月盘面转向C 结构。 ⚫ 整体来看，美国超预期的非农表现令年底降息进一步降 温，而全球科技股估值过高及AI泡沫破裂的风险令海 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT soybean January contract rose 4 to close at 1126.5 cents per bushel, a 0.36% increase; the soybean meal 01 contract fell 80 to close at 3012 yuan per ton, a 2.59% decrease; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 50 to 2990 yuan per ton, a 1.64% decrease; the rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 59 to 2431 yuan per ton, a 2.37% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 80 to 2510 yuan per ton, a 3.09% decrease [4][7]. - The higher - than - expected soybean crushing volume in the US in October and optimistic export expectations led to a significant strengthening of the outer market at the beginning of the week. As private exporters reported continuous purchases of US soybeans by China, with a cumulative purchase volume of 1.584 million tons during the week, the export expectations were fulfilled and US soybeans declined. The import cost dropped, the spot supply was sufficient, the previously worried about long - term supply gap was filled, downstream buyers purchased a large number of long - term basis contracts, and the Dalian soybean meal futures prices declined from high levels. Rapeseed meal is in the off - season of seasonal demand and declined during the week [4][7]. - Precipitation increased in the central and western regions of Brazil, which was beneficial for improving soil moisture; the Argentine产区 was relatively dry, which was conducive to sowing progress and the soil moisture was acceptable. Positive expectations for South American crop yields were maintained. Last week, private exporters reported a total of 1.584 million tons of US soybean exports to China, effectively supplementing the domestic soybean supply for the December - January shipping period. The trading volume of long - term basis contracts increased. With lower costs, sufficient spot supply, and alleviated concerns about long - term supply, soybean meal prices declined from high levels. It is expected that the Dalian soybean meal futures will fluctuate weakly in the short term [4][12]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean price rose 4 to 1126.5 cents per bushel, a 0.36% increase; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans fell 10 to 491 dollars per ton, a 2.00% decrease; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans fell 3 to 497 dollars per ton, a 0.60% decrease; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market increased 204.75 to 47.01 yuan per ton; the DCE soybean meal 01 contract fell 80 to 3012 yuan per ton, a 2.59% decrease; the CZCE rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 59 to 2431 yuan per ton, a 2.37% decrease; the soybean meal - rapeseed meal price difference decreased 21 to 581 yuan per ton; the East China soybean meal spot price fell 40 to 3000 yuan per ton, a 1.32% decrease; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 50 to 2990 yuan per ton, a 1.64% decrease; the South China spot - futures price difference increased 30 to - 22 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **US Market**: The US soybean harvest rate as of November 16, 2025, was 95%, compared with 98% last year and a five - year average of 96%. Private exporters reported 1.584 million tons of US soybean exports to China for the 2025/2026 market year. The net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 year as of October 2 was 919,400 tons, in line with expectations. The US soybean crushing gross profit in the week of November 14, 2025, was 2.81 dollars per bushel, up from 2.02 dollars per bushel the previous week. The 48% protein soybean meal spot price in Illinois was 338.4 dollars per short ton, up from 322.08 dollars per short ton the previous week. The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 51.58 cents per pound, up from 48.02 cents per pound the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 11.15 dollars per bushel, up from 11.14 dollars per bushel the previous week. In October, the US soybean crushing volume was 227.647 million bushels, a 15.1% increase from September and a 13.9% increase from October 2024, also breaking the monthly crushing record set in December 2024. As of October 31, the NOPA member companies' soybean oil inventory rose to 1.305 billion pounds, a 5.0% increase from the end of September and a 21.5% increase from the same period last year [8][9]. - **South American Market**: As of November 15, 2025, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 69% (Conab data), and 71% (AgRural data), but lagging behind last year's 80% due to irregular rainfall. Brazil is expected to export 4.71 million tons of soybeans in November, up from 4.26 million tons the previous week. As of November 19, 2025, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 24.6%. In the next 15 days, precipitation in the Brazilian soybean - producing areas will be slightly lower than normal, but the increase in precipitation in the central and western regions is beneficial for soil moisture; precipitation in Argentina will decrease in the next two weeks, which is conducive to sowing progress and the soil moisture is sufficient [10]. - **Domestic Market**: As of November 14, 2025, the major oil mills' soybean inventory was 7.4771 million tons, a decrease of 142,400 tons from the previous week but an increase of 2.1711 million tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 992,900 tons, a decrease of 5700 tons from the previous week but an increase of 214,300 tons from the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 5.3507 million tons, a decrease of 650,800 tons from the previous week but an increase of 965,400 tons from the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 9.926 million tons, a decrease of 408,000 tons from the previous week but an increase of 3.0947 million tons from the same period last year. As of November 21, 2025, the national daily average trading volume of soybean meal was 242,600 tons, including 70,960 tons of spot trading and 171,640 tons of forward trading, compared with a daily average total trading volume of 222,860 tons the previous week; the daily average soybean meal pickup volume was 190,360 tons, up from 183,700 tons the previous week; the major oil mills' crushing volume was 2.3344 million tons, up from 2.0776 million tons the previous week; the soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises were 7.98 days, up from 7.74 days the previous week [11]. Industry News - Secex reported that Brazil exported 2.3021241 million tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of November, with a daily average export volume of 230,212.4 tons, a 71% increase from the daily average export volume in November last year. The total export volume in November last year was 2.5530339 million tons [13]. - The Brazilian Soybean Industry Association (Abiove) predicted that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/2026 season would be a record - high 177.7 million tons (previously estimated at 178.5 million tons), higher than 172.1 million tons in the previous year. The soybean crushing volume in the 2025/2026 season is expected to be 60.5 million tons, the same as the previous estimate and higher than 58.5 million tons in the previous year. The Brazilian soybean export volume in 2026 is expected to reach 111 million tons, the same as the previous estimate and higher than 109 million tons in 2025 [13]. - As of November 17, the soybean sowing rate in Paraná state was 92%, up 6 percentage points from the previous week but lower than 96% last year. The growth of soybeans improved slightly, with 92% of the evaluated areas in good condition. According to the latest estimate, the soybean harvest in Paraná state in the 2025/2026 season is estimated to be 21.96 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year [14]. - As of November 16, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/2026 year were 1.08 million tons, compared with 1.32 million tons last year; soybean imports were 4.4 million tons, compared with 5.25 million tons last year; soybean meal imports were 6.74 million tons, compared with 7.37 million tons last year; rapeseed imports were 1.4 million tons, compared with 2.44 million tons last year [14]. - S&P Global Energy predicted that the US corn planting area in 2026 would be reduced by 3.8% compared with 2025 to 95 million acres, a decrease of 3.7 million acres; the soybean planting area would be increased by 4% to 84.5 million acres, an increase of 3.4 million acres [15]. - Safras& Mercado estimated that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/2026 season would be 178.76 million tons, a reduction of more than 2 million tons from the September forecast. The soybean production is still expected to reach a record high, a 4% increase from the previous year. In Tocantins state, the yield potential decreased from 3800 kg/ha to 3660 kg/ha, with an expected output of about 5.7 million tons. In Paraná state, due to adverse weather conditions such as tornadoes, the production estimate was adjusted to 21.7 million tons, still higher than the previous year. The soybean planting area is expected to increase by 1.4% to 48.31 million hectares [15]. - As of November 12, Argentine farmers sold 533,500 tons of 2024/2025 season soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales volume to 39.3662 million tons [16]. - The soybean planting in Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil, "steadily" advanced last week, reaching 43% of the estimated planting area, but still lagging behind last year and the five - year average [16]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts on the trends of US soybean futures contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival prices, RMB spot exchange rates, regional soybean crushing profits, management fund CBOT net positions, regional soybean meal spot prices, soybean meal spot - futures price differences, soybean meal 1 - 5 month spread, South American soybean产区 precipitation and temperature, Brazilian and Argentine soybean sowing progress, US soybean sales and export volume, US oil mill crushing profits, soybean meal trading and pickup volume, port and oil mill soybean inventory, oil mill crushing volume, unexecuted contracts, oil mill soybean meal inventory, and feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days [17 - 47].

铁矿周报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 铁水产量减少 铁矿震荡承压 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/11 ⚫ 需求端：上周钢厂亏损加剧，开工回落，铁水产量环 比回落，目前略高于去年同期水平。上周247家钢厂 高炉开工率82.19%，环比上周减少0.62个百分点，同 比去年增加0.26个百分点，日均铁水产量 236.28万 吨，环比上周减少0.60万吨，同比去年增加0.48万 吨。 ⚫ 供应端：上周海外铁矿到港量减少，但发运大幅增 加，港口库存处于高位，供应压力不减。上周全球铁 ...

钢材周报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 供需边际增加 期价震荡偏弱 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 ⚫ 宏观面：国务院副总理何立峰在湖北、湖南调研时强调， 要持续推动外贸提质增效，完善高标准物流体系建设， 加力支持制造业高质量发展，加快构建全国统一大市 场，进一步畅通国内国际双循环。要完善法律与政策体 系，综合整治"内卷式"竞争。国家统计局最新数据显 示，2025年10月份，中国钢筋产量为1434.0万吨，同比 下降18.6%；1-10月累计产量为15801.0万吨，同比 ...

焦煤焦炭周报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 关注前低支撑 双焦震荡走势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 一、交易数据 | 合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅% | 总成交量/手 | 总持仓量/手 | 价格单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE 螺纹钢 | 3057 | 4 | 0.13 | 6165476 | 2619983 | 元/吨 | | SHFE 热卷 | 3270 | 14 | 0.43 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US September non - farm data was mixed, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, and the market's expectation of a December rate cut was further dampened. The Fed's internal differences persisted, and the overall tone was hawkish. The risk appetite was generally weak. Domestically, the A - share market fell across the board with shrinking trading volume, and the bond market showed a differentiated trend [2][3]. - For precious metals, the strong non - farm employment data and the strengthening of the US dollar index and the cooling of the Fed's rate - cut expectation put double pressure on the prices of gold and silver, and they were in a stage of adjustment [4][5]. - For copper, the rebound of the US dollar index led to an adjustment of copper prices. The macro situation and industrial fundamentals jointly affected the market, and it was expected that the short - term adjustment would continue [6][7]. - For aluminum, the strong non - farm data in the US weakened the possibility of a December rate cut by the Fed, and the aluminum price was suppressed. Although the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased significantly this week, it was difficult to sustain the continuous decline, and the Shanghai aluminum would fluctuate and consolidate [8][9]. - For other metals such as zinc, lead, tin, etc., they were all affected by factors such as macro data, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy expectations, showing different price trends such as wide - range fluctuations and shocks [12][16][18]. - For industrial products such as industrial silicon, soda ash, glass, and steel products, they were affected by factors such as production, inventory, and market demand, and their prices generally showed a trend of shock [19][25][27]. - For agricultural products such as soybean meal, palm oil, etc., they were affected by factors such as international trade, production progress, and policy expectations, and their prices fluctuated [30][34]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US added 119,000 non - farm jobs in September, significantly exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, reaching a four - year high. The August data was revised downward to negative growth. The economic data failed to eliminate the uncertainty of the December FOMC. Multiple Fed officials focused on financial stability and high - valuation risks, with a generally hawkish tone. The market currently priced the probability of no rate cut in December at about 60%. The stock market had a sharp intraday reversal, the US dollar index fluctuated around 100, the 10 - year US Treasury yield declined, and gold, copper, and oil slightly closed down [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market opened higher and closed lower, with the trading volume of the two markets shrinking to 1.72 trillion. The ChiNext and STAR Market led the decline. The debt market showed a differentiated trend. The long - term interest rate rose, and the short - term interest rate declined. There was a risk of a phased correction in the A - share market, and the debt market might fluctuate strongly in the short term [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Thursday, international precious metal futures prices slightly corrected. The strengthening of the US dollar index and the cooling of the Fed's rate - cut expectation put double pressure on precious metal prices. The Fed's October meeting minutes showed increased differences among policymakers on a December rate cut. The US September non - farm employment data was strong, but the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly. The probability of a December rate cut was low. The US Department of Labor will combine and release the October and November employment data on December 16. It was maintained that the prices of gold and silver were in a stage of adjustment [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly, and LME copper adjusted downward. The spot market trading of electrolytic copper cooled down, and the downstream mainly made rigid purchases due to high prices. The LME inventory rose to 158,000 tons. The September non - farm employment data in the US exceeded expectations, which further suppressed the expectation of a December rate cut. The WBMS data showed a shortage of 81,000 tons of global refined copper supply in September, and China's imports of refined copper in October decreased by 22.1% year - on - year. It was expected that the copper price would continue to adjust in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,550 yuan/ton, down 0.12%. The LME aluminum closed at $2,806.5/ton, down 0.28%. The strong non - farm growth in the US in September weakened the possibility of a December rate cut by the Fed, and the US dollar index rebounded strongly, putting pressure on the aluminum price. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased significantly this week, mainly because the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing at low prices increased due to the decline in the absolute price. However, it was difficult to sustain the continuous decline as consumption entered the off - season. The Shanghai aluminum would fluctuate and consolidate [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2,737 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. The overall supply of alumina was still in excess, the tender purchase price of upstream electrolytic aluminum plants continued to decline, driving the spot price down. The market was dominated by a bearish atmosphere and continued to operate weakly [10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 20,810 yuan/ton, down 0.12%. The cost of cast aluminum was affected by the tight supply of scrap aluminum, and the demand side still had resilience. The rigid demand procurement would support the price at the bottom, and the price of ADC12 might stabilize and fluctuate in the short term [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated horizontally during the day and opened higher at night. The inventory of zinc ingots decreased. The import volume of zinc ore and refined zinc in October decreased compared with the previous month. The LME inventory increased since early November, and the risk of a short squeeze decreased. The zinc price lacked a trend and maintained a wide - range fluctuation [12][13][14]. 3.8 Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated weakly. The import volume of lead concentrate in October decreased compared with the previous month. The social inventory decreased slightly this week. After the delivery of the current - month contract, the domestic social inventory first increased and then decreased, and the absolute inventory was still low. The supply in some regions was tight, but the demand was difficult to boost. It was expected that the lead price would maintain a shock - adjustment trend in the short term [15][16]. 3.9 Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated weakly during the day and opened slightly higher at night. The overseas tin mine复产 was slow, the domestic tin ore import volume in October still had a large year - on - year decline, and the raw material gap still existed, which restricted the release of refined tin production. The performance of NVIDIA exceeded expectations, and the AI demand still had room for imagination. However, in the short term, the Fed was likely to keep the interest rate unchanged in December, and the tin price would maintain a high - level wide - range fluctuation [17][18]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, industrial silicon fluctuated narrowly. The supply side was affected by the decline in production in the southwest region during the dry season, and the supply margin decreased. The demand side was affected by factors such as the weakening of the market sentiment of polysilicon and the over - supply of battery cells. The market sentiment was repeated, and it was expected that the industrial silicon price would fluctuate within a range in the short term [19][20]. 3.11 Carbonate Lithium - On Thursday, the price of carbonate lithium fluctuated widely, and the spot price rose. The exchange introduced a position - limit policy, which suppressed the bullish sentiment. The downstream purchasing was mainly for rigid demand, and the consumption still had an increase. The fundamental situation had not shown signs of weakness, but the bullish sentiment was cautious, and the lithium price might fluctuate widely [21][22]. 3.12 Nickel - On Thursday, the nickel price was weak. The Fed officials' hawkish remarks dampened the expectation of a December rate cut. The cost of nickel ore remained high, squeezing the upstream profit. The demand for nickel sulfate entered the off - season, and the price declined. It was expected that the nickel price would fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the strength of cost support [23][24]. 3.13 Soda Ash and Glass - On Thursday, the main contract of soda ash fluctuated, and the main contract of glass fluctuated weakly. The production of soda ash decreased, the opening rate declined, but the shipment volume increased, driving the inventory to decrease. The glass fundamentals were relatively weak, with the upstream opening rate decreasing and the enterprise inventory still accumulating. There were rumors that the real - estate industry might receive policy support, and it was expected that the prices would fluctuate at a low level [25][26]. 3.14 Steel Products (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures fluctuated. The output and apparent demand of the five major steel products increased, and the inventory decline widened. However, the downstream steel entered the consumption off - season, the outdoor construction decreased, and the supply pressure of hot - rolled coils remained high. It was expected that the steel price would fluctuate [27]. 3.15 Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron - ore futures fluctuated. The supply of iron ore was under pressure, and the demand side had a short - term recovery in iron - water production, but the medium - term production - reduction expectation remained unchanged. It was expected that the iron - ore price would fluctuate under pressure [28]. 3.16 Coking Coal and Coke - On Thursday, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated weakly. The coking profit rebounded significantly this week, the demand for coking coal was restricted, and the mine production capacity utilization rate increased. It was expected that the prices would fluctuate weakly [29]. 3.17 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, soybean - meal and rapeseed - meal futures declined. China continued to purchase US soybeans, and the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans was lagging. The external - market price declined, and the import - cost support weakened. It was expected that the short - term soybean - meal price would fluctuate [30][31]. 3.18 Palm Oil - On Thursday, palm - oil futures declined. The US non - farm data was contradictory, the international oil price declined, the export demand of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of November decreased, and the sentiment of the US biodiesel policy cooled down. It was expected that the palm - oil price would fluctuate in the short term [32][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas risk appetite is continuously contracting, and the domestic stock and bond markets are both weak. There is a risk of a phased correction in the A - share market, and the bond market is likely to maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern in the short term [2][3]. - The resumption of US official data may intensify short - term fluctuations in precious metals prices, and attention should be paid to the Fed's meeting minutes and non - farm payrolls report [4][5]. - There are risks in the artificial intelligence bubble, and copper prices will continue to adjust. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to adjust, and alumina will maintain a weak and volatile state [6][7][8]. - Cast aluminum prices will follow the market for a correction with limited amplitude. Zinc prices have support below, and lead price declines will slow down. Tin prices will oscillate in the short term and have room for growth in the long term [11][12][13]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to enter a weak and volatile phase. Lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate widely, and nickel prices will be in a weak and volatile state [15][16][17]. - The prices of soda ash and glass will oscillate at a low level. Steel prices will oscillate, and iron ore prices will mainly oscillate. Coking coal and coke prices will oscillate weakly [21][22][23]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices will oscillate, and palm oil prices will oscillate and strengthen in the short term [27][28][29]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: US employment data is weak, risk appetite is contracting, the US dollar index is oscillating strongly, US bond yields are falling, US stocks are generally down, and gold and oil prices are rising while copper prices are falling. Attention should be paid to non - farm payrolls data and technology sector earnings reports this week [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market has fallen for three consecutive days, the two - market trading volume remains above 1.9 trillion yuan, and small - cap stocks have adjusted more significantly. The margin balance has cooled down, and there is a risk of a phased correction. The bond market is also weak, and the long - term interest rate has risen slightly, maintaining a volatile pattern [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Tuesday, international precious metal futures prices first declined and then rose. The latest US employment data is weak, which boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. The resumption of official data may intensify short - term price fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the Fed's meeting minutes and non - farm payrolls report [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper and LME copper both adjusted downward. There are risks in the artificial intelligence bubble. More Fed officials are questioning the December interest rate cut. With the end of the government shutdown, attention should be paid to unemployment claims and CPI data. Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level decline in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum prices both fell. The US initial jobless claims reached a two - month high, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation has slightly increased. The market is waiting for more key data. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to adjust [8]. 3.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the alumina futures price fell. The spot price has declined, and the expectation of production cuts has increased. However, there is still an oversupply in reality, and it will maintain a low - level and volatile state [9][10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Tuesday, the cast aluminum alloy futures price fell. The cost side has support, the supply has little change, the demand is stable, and the price will follow the market for a correction with limited amplitude [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Tuesday, Shanghai zinc and LME zinc showed different trends. The US employment data is poor, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation has slightly increased, and the market is waiting for NVIDIA's earnings report. Zinc prices have support below, and the short - term price trend depends on the macro situation [12]. 3.8 Lead - On Tuesday, Shanghai lead and LME lead both showed a weak trend. Affected by the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and LME inventory accumulation, lead prices have support from the cost side and slow inventory accumulation, and the decline will slow down [13]. 3.9 Tin - On Tuesday, Shanghai tin and LME tin oscillated. The US dollar is strong, and the market is waiting for more macro guidance. There are concerns about the supply side, and the demand is strong. Tin prices will oscillate in the short term and have room for growth in the long term [14]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, industrial silicon oscillated narrowly. The supply side has a marginal convergence, the demand side is weak, and the price is expected to enter a weak and volatile phase [15][16]. 3.11 Lithium Carbonate - On Tuesday, lithium carbonate prices oscillated downward, and the spot price rose. The futures market has strong selling pressure, and the spot trading is poor. With the arrival of imported resources, the supply shortage may be alleviated, and the price will fluctuate widely [17][18]. 3.12 Nickel - On Tuesday, nickel prices were weak. The terminal demand is low, the inventory is at an absolute high, and the price is expected to be in a weak and volatile state. Attention should be paid to changes in upstream supply [19][20]. 3.13 Soda Ash and Glass - On Tuesday, the prices of soda ash and glass futures both oscillated weakly. The downstream demand is not improving, and the prices will oscillate at a low level [21][22]. 3.14 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Tuesday, steel futures oscillated. The spot market trading and prices are stable, the supply pressure has decreased after steel mill production cuts, but the demand is still weak, and steel prices will oscillate [23][24]. 3.15 Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures oscillated. The port inventory has slightly decreased, the supply is still high, the demand has a short - term rebound but the medium - term reduction expectation remains unchanged, and the price will mainly oscillate [25]. 3.16 Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - On Tuesday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated weakly. The coal mine production has increased, the coke price increase has limited improvement in coking enterprise losses, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The price will oscillate weakly [26]. 3.17 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, bean and rapeseed meal futures fell. China has purchased 792,000 tons of US soybeans. The US soybean harvest is nearing completion, and the Brazilian soybean sowing progress is over 90%. The supply is loose, and the price will oscillate [27][28]. 3.18 Palm Oil - On Tuesday, palm oil futures rose. The US biodiesel policy may exceed market expectations, and India's vegetable oil inventory is at a low level, with potential import demand. Palm oil prices will oscillate and strengthen in the short term [29][30].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has converged again, and the domestic risk appetite has weakened. The market needs to pay attention to the US non - farm payroll data and the earnings reports of the US stock technology sector this week. In the domestic market, although there is a possibility of reaching a new high this year, it is necessary to guard against the risk of a phased correction. The bond market is likely to maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern in the short term [2][3]. - Precious metals are in a phased adjustment, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the speeches of Fed officials and the US non - farm payroll data [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to fall from high levels in the short term due to increased sanctions on Russia and the Fed's hawkish attitude [6][7]. - Aluminum prices continue to adjust due to the decline in the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the increase in domestic aluminum ingot supply [8]. - Alumina is in a weak and volatile state as the supply pressure remains high [9][10]. - The decline of the casting aluminum price is expected to be limited as the cost provides support and there is replenishment demand in the future [11]. - Zinc prices are in a weak and volatile state as the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December has cooled and the dollar index has rebounded [12]. - Lead prices are expected to adjust following the decline of LME lead, and it is necessary to pay attention to the support of the 40 - day moving average [13][14]. - Tin prices are expected to maintain a high - level adjustment as the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December has declined and the fundamentals have limited driving force [15]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation as the supply and demand contradiction is not significant [16][17]. - Lithium carbonate prices may continue to rise, but it is necessary to be vigilant against the impact of demand falling short of expectations and increased imports [18][19]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is necessary to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price [20][21]. - The prices of soda ash and glass are expected to oscillate at a low level as the demand has no bright spots [22][23]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate as the supply pressure has decreased after the steel mills' production cuts, but the weak demand pattern remains unchanged [24]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate as the supply pressure remains and the iron - making output has rebounded slightly [25]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term as the supply has increased marginally and the market sentiment has declined [26]. - The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term as the external market has strengthened and the domestic inventory has reached an inflection point [27][29]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate in the short term as the production has increased and the demand has decreased [30][31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomic Situation - Overseas: The Fed has internal differences. Vice - Chairman Jefferson believes that the interest rate is approaching the neutral level and the subsequent interest rate cut needs to be cautious. The next Fed Chairman candidate Waller supports a 25 - bp interest rate cut in December. The market - priced probability of an interest rate cut in December has dropped to 43%. The US dollar index has rebounded to 99.5, the US stocks have risen and then fallen, and the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield has oscillated and fallen to 4.13%. Gold, copper, and oil prices have all adjusted [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market has oscillated and adjusted, and the trading volume of the two markets has fallen to 1.93 trillion. The margin trading balance has basically remained flat since November, indicating a weakening willingness to add leverage. The bond market is in a volatile period without a clear main line and is likely to maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - On Monday, international precious metal futures prices continued to fall. COMEX gold futures fell 1.20% to $4045.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.25% to $50.05 per ounce. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has been weakening, and precious metal prices have fallen for three consecutive days. In addition, the low physical demand in the Asian market and Indonesia's plan to impose an export tax on gold products have also affected the prices [4]. Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated and fell, and LME copper adjusted to around $10,700 to seek support. The US has increased sanctions on Russia, and the Fed has different attitudes towards interest rate cuts, with the probability of an interest rate cut in December dropping to 57%. Fundamentally, the shortage of ore supply continues, and domestic refined copper production has declined. It is expected that copper prices will fall from high levels in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,725 yuan per ton, down 1.14%. The LME aluminum price also fell. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased. The Fed's recent statements have affected the decline of the interest rate cut expectation, and the domestic aluminum supply has increased. The previous positive factors have faded, and aluminum prices continue to adjust [8]. Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2,817 yuan per ton, down 0.7%. The domestic and foreign spot prices of alumina have shown a trend of stabilizing after falling, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. The supply side is expected to cut production due to cost pressure and environmental protection policies, and alumina is in a weak and volatile state [9][10]. Casting Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of casting aluminum alloy futures closed at 20,990 yuan per ton, down 1.11%. The cost of scrap aluminum provides support, and there is replenishment demand in the future. It is expected that the decline of casting aluminum prices will be limited [11]. Zinc - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated weakly. The supply of zinc in the market is still tight, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December has cooled, and the US dollar index has rebounded, putting pressure on zinc prices. The zinc market has both positive and negative factors, and zinc prices are in a weak and volatile state [12]. Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fell. The LME lead inventory has increased significantly, dragging down the price of LME lead, and Shanghai lead has also adjusted weakly. The production of primary lead smelters has recovered, while some secondary lead smelters have cut production. The consumption of electric bicycles has weakened, and the social inventory has increased slightly. It is expected that lead prices will follow the adjustment of LME lead [13][14]. Tin - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated at a high level. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December has declined, and the market sentiment has tightened. The improvement of the raw material supply is limited, and the downstream is cautious about purchasing high - priced tin. The inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks. It is expected that tin prices will maintain a high - level adjustment [15]. Industrial Silicon - On Monday, industrial silicon oscillated narrowly. The supply side has slightly converged, and the demand side has different situations in different sectors. The social inventory has decreased slightly, and the spot market has generally stabilized. It is expected that industrial silicon prices will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, lithium carbonate prices rose strongly. The supply of lithium carbonate has reached a new high, but the inventory has decreased, and the destocking has accelerated. The market has a strong ability to absorb lithium carbonate. The bullish sentiment in the market is strong, which may push lithium carbonate prices higher, but attention should be paid to the impact of demand falling short of expectations and increased imports [18][19]. Nickel - On Monday, nickel prices oscillated weakly. The inventory of nickel at home and abroad has increased significantly, putting pressure on nickel prices. However, the current price has touched the cost line of some production capacities, and the downstream procurement is active. Indonesia has begun to control the nickel industry. It is expected that nickel prices will oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price [20][21]. Soda Ash and Glass - On Monday, the main contract of soda ash oscillated, and the glass price was also at a low - level oscillation. The demand for soda ash and glass has no bright spots. The inventory of soda ash has decreased significantly, but the glass market is still weak. It is expected that the prices of soda ash and glass will oscillate at a low level [22][23]. Steel - On Monday, steel futures oscillated and rebounded. The production of the five major steel products has decreased, and the inventory has declined, but the demand is still weak. It is expected that steel prices will oscillate [24]. Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures oscillated and rebounded. The overseas arrival volume has decreased, but the shipping volume has increased, and the port inventory has continued to increase. The iron - making output has rebounded slightly. It is expected that iron ore prices will oscillate [25]. Coking Coal and Coke - On Monday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated weakly. The production of coking coal has rebounded from a low level, and the fourth - round price increase of coke has been implemented. The downstream steel mills' iron - making output has rebounded, but the demand for raw materials is expected to weaken. It is expected that the prices of coking coal and coke will oscillate weakly in the short term [26]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures fell, but the external market has strengthened. The US soybean crushing volume in October exceeded expectations, and the Brazilian soybean planting progress is normal. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level but have reached an inflection point. It is expected that the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal will oscillate strongly in the short term [28][29]. Palm Oil - On Monday, palm oil futures rose slightly. The production of Malaysian palm oil in the first half of November has increased, while the export demand has decreased. The domestic palm oil inventory has increased. It is expected that palm oil prices will oscillate in the short term [30][31].

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