NUMBER WATER WARRENT FREE WARRET FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE . Wa (2) | ITG国贸期货 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PE数据日报 | | | | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询证:Z0015946 | 2025/12/05 | 从业资格证:F3054270 | 能源化工研究中心 陈一凡 | | | | | | | 2025/12/03 2025/12/04 | 现货综述 | 指标 | 变动值 | 62. 45 | | | | | | | 62.67 | 0. 22 | Brent | 动力煤 | 470 | 470 | | | | | | 乙烷(CFR中国) | 3120 | 3140 | 20 | 乙烯(进口) | 上游 | 740x | 740 | 0 | | | 今日LLDPE市场价格多数跌。国内LLDPE市场 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Equity Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Silicomanganese, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Black Metal, Soda Ash, Glass, Jiao Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Crude Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] Core Viewpoints - The market divergence is expected to gradually be digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The market adjustment provides an opportunity to lay out for the index's further upward movement next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and cost supports, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [1]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial - Equity Index: Market divergence will be digested during adjustment, with potential for further upward movement. Central Huijin's support limits downside risk. Market adjustment provides a layout opportunity, and traders can build long positions during the adjustment and use the stock - index futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned by the central bank, suppressing the upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: There is a risk of price decline after the digestion of short - term positive sentiment [1]. - Aluminum Oxide: Domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and prices are under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the price changes at the mine end [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - positive factors and with oversupply, there is a risk of price decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - Nickel: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the macro sentiment has improved. Indonesia's restrictions on nickel - related smelting projects have limited impact. Short - term nickel prices may fluctuate with the macro situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and the medium - to - long - term supply of nickel will remain in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro sentiment has improved, and raw materials have stopped falling. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate and rebound in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production situation of steel mills [1]. - Tin: After the digestion of macro - positive sentiment, due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, tin prices have strengthened. However, beware of the risk of short - term over - rise and fall. The medium - to - long - term outlook is bullish [1]. - Precious Metals: Gold may fluctuate within a range. Silver's short - term price will continue to fluctuate sharply. Platinum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For palladium, the short - term strategy is to short at high levels, and the medium - term [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers are reluctant to sell and are strong in price support [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - driving force is increasing in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - arbitrage positions to enter. Do not chase high in single - side trading [1]. - Iron Ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - Manganese Ore and Silicomanganese: The short - term production profit is poor, with cost support, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strong [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, but with average supply and demand, there is great resistance to price increase [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment may start around mid - December. For now, use a short - term strategy for single - side trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the peak season [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Soybean: China's purchases support the US market. Brazilian weather lacks obvious speculation themes, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Pulp: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the short - term price will fluctuate [1]. - Log: The fundamental situation has weakened but has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is stabilizing, with demand support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is postponed, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC + policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand during the 14th Five - Year Plan may be falsified, and supply is sufficient. The profit is high [1]. - BR Rubber: The price support of butadiene is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a positive expectation. High inventory restricts price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - PTA: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, and there are positive factors such as domestic PTA export improvement [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, prices are falling, and cost support is weakening [1]. - Short Fiber: The price follows cost closely, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - Styrene: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced US gasoline demand [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and anti - dumping [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1]. - Caustic Soda: There are factors such as delivery from Guangxi alumina plants, high - load operation, and potential squeezing risks [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas market returns to a loose fundamental situation. The CP/FEI has rebounded. The price will fluctuate within a range after a decline [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating [2][3][4] 2. Core View of the Report - On December 3rd, the A - share market fluctuated and declined, with more stocks falling than rising, over 3800 stocks declined; market hotspots were scarce, and trading volume remained relatively low. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.51% at 3878 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.78%, the ChiNext Index dropped 1.12%, the North - Securities 50 declined 0.4%, the STAR 50 fell 0.89%, the Wind All - A dropped 0.72%, the Wind A500 declined 0.58%, and the CSI A500 fell 0.56%. The total trading volume of A - shares was 1.68 trillion yuan, compared with 1.61 trillion yuan the previous day [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Index Performance - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes (in billions), and trading amounts (in billions of yuan) of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 are as follows: - Shanghai Composite 50: closing price 2963.0763, down 0.52%, trading volume 38.52 billion, trading amount 854.95 billion yuan [3] - CSI 300: closing price 4531.0486, down 0.51%, trading volume 169.76 billion, trading amount 3744.86 billion yuan [3] - CSI 1000: closing price 7248.274, down 0.89%, trading volume 214.63 billion, trading amount 3350.34 billion yuan [3] 3.2 CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading Situation - Option trading volume, open interest, trading volume of call options, trading volume of put options, open interest of call options, open interest of put options, trading volume PCR, and open interest PCR of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 are presented in detail [3] 3.3 Volatility Analysis - Historical volatility, historical volatility cones, and volatility smile curves of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 are analyzed, including the 10% - 30% quantile, maximum, minimum, current value, 90% quantile, and 60% quantile of historical volatility [3]

数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号: F03110419 2025/12/4 | 指标 | | 12月3日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 94 | | 1600 1200 800 | ニニニー 18/19 ----- 22/23 | | ----- 19/20 ----- 23/24 | == - 24/25 | | == - 25/26 | | | 天津 | 54 | | | | | | | | | | | 日照 | -26 | | | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | 14 | | | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 400 01/21 | 02/71 03/24 | | 04/24 05/25 06/25 07/26 08/26 09/26 | | 10/27 11/27 12/28 | | | | ...

IICE FRIE 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 航运衍生品数据日报 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钊毅 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | c | C L | C T 1 | | --- | --- | --- | | J C | LU | H | | | Company of the control of the consideration of the 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | 業 | 现值 | 1403 | 1122 | 1632 | 94 | 2428 | 1404 | | | 前值 | 1394 | 1123 | 1645 | 1107 | 2384 | 1367 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | 0.69% | -0.09% | -0.79% | -14.29% | 1.85% | 2 ...

| II CTERER | | | 十度市临参考 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | 预计年内市场分歧将在股指震荡调整过程中逐步消化,后续有望 | | | | | 随着新主线的出现推动股指进一步上行。与此同时,中央汇金的 | | | | | 托底作用为市场提供了一定缓冲,指数下行风险整体可控。从策 | | 宏观金融。 | DXJE | | 略角度看, 近期市场的调整为明年股指进一步上行提供了布局机 | | | | | 会,交易者可考虑在市场调整阶段逐步建立多头头寸,并借助股 指期货的贴水结构提升长线投资的胜率。 | | | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | | | | 图间。 美联储降息预期升温,市场情绪向好,叠加产业面存在支撑,铜 | | | | | 价偏强运行。 | | | | 有为说 | 近期产业面驱动有限,而宏观情绪向好,铝价回升。 | | | 氧化铝 | | 国内氧化铝产量及库存继续双增,基本面维持偏弱格局,价格承 压下行,关注矿端价格变化。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market will continue to fluctuate, with the price range determined by factors such as macro - trading expectations, seasonal demand, and inventory pressure [2]. - The sentiment of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon has improved, but the price is under pressure due to supply - demand imbalance [3][5]. - For coking coal and coke, the decline in spot auction prices of coking coal has narrowed, and the market is expected to be supported by potential downstream replenishment, with a strategy of buying far - month contracts at low prices [6]. - Iron ore faces significant upward pressure, with inventory accumulation expected to continue, and the operation strategy is to short at high prices [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On December 3rd, the closing prices of far - month and near - month contracts of steel futures showed different changes, with some contracts rising and some falling. The spot prices of steel in different regions were relatively stable, and the basis also changed [1]. - The spot trading volume continued to decline on Wednesday, providing limited upward momentum for prices. The main contracts are shifting to 05. Macro factors such as US interest - rate cut expectations and domestic economic meetings are worth observing. The seasonal off - season in the industry has not formed a unified contradiction, and the supply - demand structure is relatively stable. Hot - rolled coils have inventory and production pressure, but there is no strong short - selling intention in the low - profit environment of steel mills. There may be some replenishment behavior in December, providing support for low prices [2]. - The trading strategy is to adopt a unilateral range - trading approach, consider participating in cash - and - carry arbitrage for hot - rolled coils, or use option strategies to assist in spot procurement and sales [8]. Silicon - iron and Manganese - silicon - Recently, the prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon have rebounded with the black - metal sector, but the driving force is insufficient. The steel price is under pressure, the direct demand is weakening, and the alloy factories have a high production volume despite poor profits. The supply - demand surplus pattern continues, and the price will be under pressure [5]. - Investment customers are advised to short at high prices, and industrial customers can use accumulation options to protect their spot positions [8]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the trading sentiment of coke in the domestic market is average, the decline in the spot auction prices of coking coal has narrowed, and some coal types have slightly increased. In the futures market, the performance is still weak. The steel data is good, and the coking coal price is affected by the slowdown in downstream replenishment. The market is expected to be supported by potential downstream replenishment in mid - to - late December, and the strategy is to buy far - month contracts at low prices [6]. - The speculative strategy is to mainly buy far - month contracts at low prices [8]. Iron Ore - Iron ore is at the upper limit of the range - bound movement. In the short term, the arrival of iron ore at ports has increased, and the shipment will remain stable. In the medium term, the inventory will continue to accumulate. The decline in steel - mill profits has affected production willingness, and the port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise. The operation strategy is to short at high prices [7]. - The strategy is to hold short positions [8].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ·PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 3200 -300 2000 2023- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2025- 2025- 2025-02 2025-04 2025-06 2025-08 2025-10 2024-12 02 05 09 09 01 09 01 01 05 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 -FDY现金流 ·DTY现金清 800 涤短现金流 切片现金 600' 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 01 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2025- 2025- 2023- 01 02 0მ 01 0 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, silver is expected to enter a high - volatility and wide - range oscillation. It's recommended to wait and see for silver, while gold can still be bought on dips as the gold price may be supported by the expectation of the Fed's December rate cut [6]. - In the long - term, the center of gravity of gold is likely to continue to move up due to factors like the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties, etc. Long - term investors are advised to mainly adopt a strategy of buying on dips [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On December 3, 2025, compared with December 2, London gold spot was at $4208.38/ounce (-0.1%), London silver spot was at $58.00/ounce (1.5%), COMEX gold was at $4238.80/ounce (-0.1%), COMEX silver was at $58.66/ounce (1.5%), AU2512 was at 953.38 yuan/gram (-0.2%), AG2512 was at 13575.00 yuan/kg (1.2%), AU (T + D) was at 951.28 yuan/gram (-0.2%), and AG (T + D) was at 13559.00 yuan/kg (1.0%) [3][5]. - Regarding price spreads/ratios on December 3, 2025, compared with December 2, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was -2.1 yuan/gram (16.0%), the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was -16 yuan/kg (-300.0%), etc. [5]. 2. Position Data - As of December 2, 2025, compared with December 1, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1048.29 tons (-0.16%), the silver ETF - SLV was 15863.15021 tons (0.38%), and there were changes in COMEX non - commercial long and short positions of gold and silver [5]. 3. Inventory Data - On December 3, 2025, compared with December 2, SHFE gold inventory was 90873.00 kg (0.00%), SHFE silver inventory was 626633.00 kg (5.38%), COMEX gold inventory was 36281915 troy ounces (0.00%), and COMEX silver inventory was 455933737 troy ounces (-0.01%) [5]. 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On December 3, 2025, compared with December 2, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.08 (-0.06%), the US dollar index was 99.32 (-0.09%), the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.51% (-0.85%), etc. [5]. 5. Market Review - On December 3, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.55% to 956.7 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.67% to 13582 yuan/kg [5]. 6. Analysis of Influencing Factors and Short - term Outlook - For silver, due to large cumulative gains and profit - taking pressure, and the continuous 5 - day increase in SHFE silver inventory, the B40K structure depth of domestic silver futures inter - month spreads continues to weaken, and the silver transfer fee of the Gold Exchange is again "short pays long". It's expected to enter high - volatility wide - range oscillation, and the December silver delivery in New York needs attention [6]. - For gold, the lower - than - expected US November ADP employment number strengthens the Fed's December rate - cut expectation, so the gold price may be supported. Attention should be paid to US economic data and the Fed's tone [6]. 7. Medium - and Long - term Viewpoints - In the medium and long term, the Fed is in an interest - rate cut cycle, and factors like global geopolitical uncertainties will increase the long - term risk of the US dollar's credit. The center of gravity of gold is likely to move up, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium ore, and cathode materials are generally in a declining trend [1][2]. - This week, lithium carbonate production decreased by 265 tons and inventory decreased by 2452 tons [3]. - Currently, the market's core focus is on demand changes. Weekly demand is basically stable, providing support for prices. In the medium - term, due to the release of energy storage demand, prices tend to rise, but there is downward pressure on prices in the short - term [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 94,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 91,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [1]. - The closing prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts from 2512 to 2604 all showed declines, with a maximum decline of 2.76% [1]. Lithium Ore - Lithium ore prices are generally falling. For example, the price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 1180 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [1]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 39,485 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 161,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2]. Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2450 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1 yuan [2]. - The difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 690 yuan/ton, with a change of 2850 yuan [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 115,968 tons, a decrease of 2452 tons; downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 41,984 tons, a decrease of 2452 tons; other inventory (weekly, tons) is 49,660 tons, an increase of 1780 tons; registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 9652 tons, an increase of 112 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 95,330 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 2287 yuan/ton; the cash cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is 93,827 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 3093 yuan/ton [3]. Industry News - The new energy storage installed capacity in China exceeds 100 million kilowatts, 30 times more than that at the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan", accounting for over 40% of the global total installed capacity [3]. - The market expects that the mining permit for Ningde Times' Xiakeng Mine will be issued in mid - January at the latest, and possibly in December at the earliest, and its impact on prices will gradually decrease [3].