ITGE贸期货 ,数据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心 杨璐琳 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 策略:加拿大浆厂出现减产情况,纸浆供给端出现利多因素,同时暂无新仓单注册,近月合约交割资源偏紧，但盘面上 涨到5500元/吨后出现新仓单注册,进一步上涨空间受限。 本报告中的冒息的报干公开可获得的资料，回贸邮货力求准确可复、但不对上述信息的推销性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资融议。也未分对个别投资者帮班的投资目标。 兜 责 路状况或需要，没资需需行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，据此投资、责任自负。本报告仅向标定客户推进，未经国贸期货股权许可，任何引用、转载以及同第2 IDE 方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险，入市需谨慎。 ll C 国贸期货 上升500 - R-2 - 17 国贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 入 期 市 市 线 官 方 网 站 需 有 服 热 M 谨 风 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 慎 险 2025/12/8 纸浆价格数据 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【塑料数据周报（PP&PE ）】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-08 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 L L DPE :宏观情绪偏弱，盘面震荡偏弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周，我国聚乙烯产量总计在68.48万吨，较上周增加2.17%。（2）中国聚乙烯生产企业产能利用率84.05%，较上周期减少了0.46个百分点。本周期 | | | | 装置情况来看，周内茂名石化、中化泉州、上海石化等装置存在检修情况，市场存量检修天数增加，因此产能利用率环比上周窄幅下降。 | | | | （1）中国LLDPE/LDPE下游制品平均开工率较前期-0.5%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期-0.9%；PE包装膜开工率较前期-0.2%。（2）中国聚乙烯下游制品 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 平均开工率较前期-0. ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【甲醇周报（MA）】 连续反弹后仍受基本面压制 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-08 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 甲醇：连续反弹后仍受基本面压制 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）本周甲醇供给端整体产量未出现明显波动，核心因 "检修损失量" 与 "恢复装置产出量" 基本抵消，且不同工艺路线开工意愿分化。煤制甲醇维持高位运行，焦炉气制 | | 供给 | 中性 | 甲醇略有增加，主因利润有改善提负意愿强烈，天然气制甲醇大幅下降主因部分企业为规避冬季天然气供应波动提前降负。（2）进口方面，本周国外产量环比上周快速下滑 | | | | 8.3%；但本周供应端最大的变量在于进口量，本周进口量35.5万吨，环比增加14.6万吨，主因前期海外订单集中到港，但由于港口及天气原因，整体的卸货速度不及预期。总体 | | | | 供应量为近一个月最高，主要依靠倒流 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the synthetic rubber industry is neutral. It is suggested that investors adopt a strategy of going long on synthetic rubber and short on natural rubber [3]. Core Viewpoints - The current spread between synthetic and natural rubber has reached a historical low. The space for further decline in the single - sided price of synthetic rubber and the spread between different rubber types is limited. The BR on the futures market is in a low - valuation range [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - As of December 4, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 10,600 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's BR9000 was between 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton. The overall supply of domestic cis - butadiene rubber remained sufficient [4]. 2. Supply Analysis 2.1 Butadiene - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 112,200 tons (- 0.80%), and the capacity utilization rate was 70.4%. Many butadiene production devices were shut down or under maintenance, leading to a decline in production [3]. 2.2 Cis - Butadiene Rubber - The production of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 29,500 tons (4.76%), and the capacity utilization rate was 73.53%. Some cis - butadiene rubber devices were under maintenance, and it is expected that this week's production and capacity utilization rate will slightly decline, but the supply on the spot side will remain sufficient [3]. 3. Demand Analysis 3.1 Semi - steel Tires - In the semi - steel tire market, the market trading was weak during the month - end period. The four - season tire market was weakly stable, and the snow - tire market had sufficient supply but awaited further demand improvement [3]. 3.2 All - steel Tires - In the all - steel tire market, the trading was dull. Affected by the seasonal off - season, the market demand further weakened. With relatively sufficient market supply, the focus was on digesting existing inventories, and the enthusiasm for restocking was average [3]. 4. Inventory Analysis 4.1 Butadiene - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 41,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13.11%. The total domestic butadiene inventory declined from a high level, with a week - on - week decrease of 7.41% [3]. 4.2 Cis - Butadiene Rubber - The inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 32,330 tons, a week - on - week increase of - 0.34%. The downstream continuous price - pressing led to weak trading, with an increase in production enterprise inventory and a slight decrease in trading enterprise inventory [3]. 5. Price and Spread Analysis 5.1 Price - The ex - factory prices of BR9000 of Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The prices of butadiene, cis - butadiene rubber, and styrene - butadiene rubber also showed different trends [4][8][9]. 5.2 Spread - The RU - BR spread was 4,655 yuan/ton (- 6.81%); the NR - BR spread was 1,635 yuan/ton (- 12.10%); the BR - SC ratio was 0.00% [3]. 6. Profit Analysis - The production gross profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation was - 1,764 yuan/ton, and that by C4 extraction was 202.23 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 787 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 8.02% [3]. 7. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Analysis - The US core PCE in September dropped to 2.8%, hitting a three - month low and lower than market expectations. G7 and the EU considered banning Russian oil shipping services. The geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela was tense. The probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December increased significantly [3]. 8. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: None. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【液化石油气（LPG）投资周报】 PG横盘震荡运行，关注终端市场需求表现 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-8 国贸期货研究院：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 国贸期货研究院：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 本周能化大宗产品收盘价格监控 能化产品收盘价格监控 | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 月涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | 周价格走势 | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 月涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | 周价格走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元兑人民币汇率 | 元 | 7 0749 . | 0 02% . | -0 06% . | -0 12% . | -1 56% . ...

a Begon 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/12/8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2512 | AG2512 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格龈踪 | 2025/12/5 | 4226. 76 | 58. 32 | 4257.00 | 58.91 | 957. 54 | 13669.00 | 955. 50 | 13663.00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 黄金震荡，白银再创新高 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-12-08 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 资料来源：Wind、国贸期货研究院 周度观点摘要 ◆ 上周金银走势分化：黄金震荡，周线下跌；白银剧烈波动，再创新高，周线收 涨。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）日本央行12月加息担忧升温，市场情绪趋于谨 慎，同时美国周度申请失业金人数大幅回落缓和就业恶化风险、12月消费者信心指数 5个月以来首次回升以及市场对美联储明年的降息趋势偏谨慎，美债收益率创8周以来 最大周度涨幅，加上中美经贸双方牵头人举行视频通话等均一度压制金价；但美国9 月核心PCE意外下降，强化美联储12月降息预期，中国央行连续13个月增持黄金储备， 普京拒绝接受和平计划部分内容，美国债务规模持续攀升等，则对金价构成支撑，故 金价整体高位震荡。（2）白银方面，在12月降息预期仍较高和供需结构失衡下，银 价整体延续强势，伦敦现 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment process, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The bottom - supporting role of Central Huijin provides a certain buffer, and the overall downside risk of the index is controllable. Traders can consider gradually establishing long positions during the market adjustment phase and use the discount structure of stock index futures to improve the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. Summary by Industry Categories Macro - financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The adjustment in the recent market provides an opportunity for the index to rise further next year. Traders can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment phase and use the discount structure of stock index futures to improve long - term investment success [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risks warned by the central bank suppress the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: After the short - term digestion of positive sentiment, there is a risk of price decline [1]. - **Alumina**: Domestic production and inventory continue to increase, the fundamental situation remains weak, and prices are under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to changes in ore prices [1]. - **Zinc**: After the short - term digestion of macro positive factors and with oversupply, there is a risk of price decline. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - **Nickel**: The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has risen, and the macro sentiment has improved. Although Indonesia has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again, the impact is limited. Short - term nickel prices may fluctuate with the macro situation, and attention should be paid to position changes. In the medium - to - long - term, the nickel market remains in an oversupply pattern [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro sentiment has improved, and raw materials have stopped falling. Stainless steel futures may fluctuate and rebound in the short term. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - **Tin**: After the digestion of macro positive factors, due to the tense situation in Congo and the risk of supply disruptions, tin prices have strengthened. However, there is a risk of short - term pull - back. In the medium - to - long - term, tin is still bullish [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Gold**: The market is focused on the possibility of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike in December, and the sentiment in the precious - metals market has become cautious. Gold prices may fluctuate within a range due to the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in December [1]. - **Silver**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has risen for six consecutive days, and silver prices have continued to decline with position reduction. The short - term market may continue to fluctuate sharply, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Platinum**: Platinum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long at low prices [1]. - **Palladium**: Palladium prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. It is recommended to go short at high prices. The [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. In December, the production of polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decline [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. Terminal installations are expected to increase marginally in the fourth quarter, and large manufacturers have strong price - support intentions [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles is approaching, and energy - storage demand is strong. Supply is expected to increase [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: In December, macro drivers are strengthening, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - spread positions to enter the market. It is not recommended to chase high prices unilaterally [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, macro drivers are strengthening in December, providing rebound momentum. Basis positive - spread positions can be entered after the futures price rises. It is not recommended to chase high prices unilaterally [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The immediate demand is acceptable, and there is cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure. The price rebound space is limited [1]. - **Manganese Ore**: The short - term production profit is poor, cost support is strengthening, direct demand is acceptable, but supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure. The price rebound is limited [1]. - **Coke**: The supply - demand situation has support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strengthening [1]. - **Soda Ash**: It generally follows the trend of glass, but the supply - demand situation is average, and there is significant upward resistance to prices [1]. - **Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, the current decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment is expected to start around mid - December [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The impact of floods on palm oil production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is high. In December, domestic arrivals are expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - **Rapeseed**: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [1]. - **Cotton**: The new domestic crop has a strong production expectation, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. Downstream demand is weak, but there is rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver" [1]. - **Sugar**: Globally, there is an oversupply of sugar, and the new domestic crop supply is increasing. If the futures price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below [1]. - **Soybeans**: China has been purchasing US soybeans, which supports the US soybean market. The weather in Brazil lacks obvious factors for speculation, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: There has been cancellation of old warehouse receipts and registration of new ones. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Logs**: The fundamental situation of logs has weakened, but this has been priced into the market. It is not recommended to short - sell after the sharp decline [1]. - **Hogs**: The spot price has gradually stabilized, demand is supportive, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is still being promoted, and the US has increased sanctions against Russia [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, it is affected by OPEC+ policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan is likely to be disproven, the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, and the profit margin is high [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The price support of butadiene is limited, and refinery overhauls may bring positive expectations. However, high inventory is still the main factor suppressing price increases [1]. - **PTA**: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, and there are rumors of domestic refinery overhauls, which are beneficial to PX. Indian PTA import certification restrictions have been lifted, improving the export prospects of domestic PTA manufacturers [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Inventory has increased, prices have fallen, and cost support has weakened. The expectation of new domestic plant commissioning is suppressing price increases [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have decreased. US gasoline demand has weakened, and the price of high - octane components has declined, weakening cost support [1]. - **Urea**: Export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient, limiting the upward space. There is support from anti - inversion and cost [1]. - **Propylene**: The supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, the propylene monomer price is high, providing cost support, and the oil - based cost has decreased [1]. - **PVC**: The market is returning to fundamentals. With fewer future overhauls and new capacity coming online, supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Some alumina plants have delayed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. The operating rate is high, and there is inventory pressure in Shandong. The absolute price is low, and there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical and tariff tensions have eased, and the international oil - gas market has returned to a situation of fundamental relaxation. The CP/FEI has recently rebounded. The LPG market is expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. - **Shipping**: The price increase in December was less than expected, the peak - season price - increase expectation was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in December was relatively loose [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The LPG futures contract's closing price increased by 28 yuan/ton to 4317 yuan/ton, a 0.65% rise. The national LPG market price went up, with the average price reaching 4360 yuan/ton, a 0.44% increase from the previous workday. The LPG market is expected to operate in a range - bound manner [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Overview - The international LPG market showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week, but the overall price center shifted upward. The non - US supply was tight while market buying interest remained strong. The Middle East's January shipment negotiations were active, and the demand was firm. The Far - East arbitrage window in the European and American markets was still open, but buying interest weakened due to shrinking arbitrage. In the Far - East market, LPG prices rose first and then fell. In the shipping market, freight rates from the Middle East to the Far East and from the US Gulf of Mexico to the Far East both increased slightly [3]. 3.2 Regional Market Conditions 3.2.1 East China Region - The average price of the civil LPG market increased by 13 yuan/ton to 4360 yuan/ton, a 0.30% increase. The market in East China mainly rose this week. The release of December CP last week increased the import cost, supporting the sentiment of upstream and downstream. The refinery supply in Shanghai and Jiangsu decreased, and the overall supply showed an obvious narrowing trend. Chemical demand increased slightly, and downstream enthusiasm for entering the market was strong. The import cost increased, but the price increase of imported gas was less than that of domestic gas [3]. 3.2.2 South China Region - The average price of the civil LPG market increased by 25 yuan/ton to 4360 yuan/ton, a 0.58% increase. The LPG market in South China rose across the board this week. Supply tightness and cost increase were the main supporting factors. For civil gas, terminals led the price increase. Due to delayed ship arrivals, some terminal inventories were low, and importers continuously raised prices. Refineries quickly followed suit. For industrial gas, the supply pressure of refineries was relieved, and the prices also increased [3]. 3.2.3 Shandong Region - The average price of the civil LPG market increased by 10 yuan/ton to 4460 yuan/ton, a 0.22% increase, and the average price of ether - post - carbon - four increased by 6 yuan/ton to 4281 yuan/ton. The civil LPG market in Shandong first remained stable and then rose, reaching a high in nearly two months. The increase in CP led to an obvious rise in import costs, driving up the price of related propane and slightly improving the profitability of downstream chemical plants [3]. 3.3 Price and Spread - Futures prices: The closing price of the main LPG futures contract increased by 28 yuan/ton to 4317 yuan/ton, a 0.65% increase; the settlement price increased by 19 yuan/ton to 4301 yuan/ton, a 0.44% increase. - Inter - month spreads: The spreads between different LPG contracts showed different changes, such as PG2601 - PG2602 being - 15 yuan/ton (down from 96 yuan/ton), and PG2601 - PG2603 being 229 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton). - Cross - variety spreads: For example, PG - 7.33*SC was 999.44 yuan/ton, a 0.50% decrease [3]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The production cost of PDH - made propylene was 6392 yuan/ton, a 0.06% decrease; the production cost of PDH - made PP was 7575.55 yuan/ton, a 0.79% increase. The production profit of PDH - made propylene was - 397 yuan/ton, a 0.25% decrease; the production profit of PDH - made PP was - 1252.22 yuan/ton, a 7.35% decrease [3]. 3.5 Other Information - Freight rates: Freight rates for different shipping routes remained unchanged. - Exchange - rate and interest - rate: The US dollar index decreased by 0.46%, and SHIBOR - overnight remained basically unchanged at 1.3020% [3].

| | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[ 2012 ]31号 [ ] C 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | ,给数据 | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询证:Z0017251 2025/12/05 | | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | | 从业资格证:F3066728 = | | | 指标 | | | 2025/12/03 2025/12/04 | 变动值 | 现货综述 | | | | WTI | | 58. 95 58. 64 | 0. 31 | | | | 原油& | | | 62. 45 | 0. 22 | | | | 石脑油 | Brent | | 62. 67 | | | | | | 石脑油 | | 567. 25 562 | -5.25 | | | | 乙烯 CFR东北亚 | | | 740 740 | | 苯乙烯:江苏市场震荡跌价。虽隔夜原油小涨,然原 料支撑之力,苯乙烯出货意向强,纯苯整理,苯乙烯 | | 游 | | CFR中国 | 669 | 67 ...